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Topic: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-11 21:14:52 and read 14155 times.

I was just watching a news reel (actually an internal promo) featuring RA and Brad Tilden on the "big" DL/AS announcement.

Anyway, one interesting comment that Richard made was "Going east we have, with our alliance partners, non-stop service to Paris, Amsterdam; and we hope in the near future to add London..."

What do you make of this?

[Edited 2012-10-11 21:23:12]

[Edited 2012-10-11 21:33:42]

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: pu
Posted 2012-10-11 21:25:26 and read 14103 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Thread starter):
What do you make of this?

I make of it Delta is advancing their market in new and arguably innovative ways while UA, AA and US are spending resources (and losing YEARS in time) peeocupied with their own problems and the s-l-o-w bankruptcy process.

Hitting at London now is smart while AA teters in chaos and from a market weak for AA anyway. London remains the big prize in Europe and Delta is slowly, slowly, making inroads. BA will keep their large Indian customer base transiting Heathrow for America, but now Delta captures a wonderful market in SEA going to Europe. LAX-LHR on the radar?

Pu

[Edited 2012-10-11 21:28:35]

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2012-10-11 21:46:23 and read 13975 times.

Northwest tried but did not do that well with poor times. I do think a DL 763 should work based on O/D. AS already codeshares with BA so DL is looking for local traffic.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: pu
Posted 2012-10-11 21:55:50 and read 13920 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 2):
AS already codeshares with BA

Amazing.
If I was unkind I might say AS is the whore of the industry, selling themselves to all comers. But they are sitting pretty and IMO can consider only WN as posessing management in their league.

Pu

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-11 21:58:14 and read 13900 times.

Quoting pu (Reply 3):
Amazing.
If I was unkind I might say AS is the whore of the industry, selling themselves to all comers. But they are sitting pretty and IMO can consider only WN as posessing management in their league.

Pu

Well, it's been said before that AS is a codeshare whore...

It's a good thing though. That's how they do what they do so well. And why I think they will remain an independent entity.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: pu
Posted 2012-10-11 22:24:56 and read 13782 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):
And why I think they will remain an independent entity.

I was going to open the door to this subtopic, but I don't much value the regular and baseless gossip about who will buy AS and didn't want to steer the thread towards fantasy and speculation. But we'd have to say Delta is now (or will be soon) the closest of all Alaska's girlfriends, agree?
.
...and given that most of us marry the closest of all our suitors, this seems a case study in how to organise a trial marriage.

Hostile takeovers don't seem to be work in the airline industry, so it becomes a question of:
a. how well this endeavor works out for both parties, and
b. If Alaska's boardmembers, like all men, have a price they cannot refuse

...but disaster comes fast to those who overpay...


Pu

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-10-11 22:58:56 and read 13673 times.

Quoting pu (Reply 5):
we'd have to say Delta is now (or will be soon) the closest of all Alaska's girlfriends, agree?
.

Disagree. Both codeshare to the same degree with AS (literally, the codeshare enplanements and markets served are nearly the same size for DL and AA) and AS has stated they wish to strengthen their alliance with AA; it's just become more difficult due to their bankruptcy disrupting normal operations there.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Yukon880
Posted 2012-10-11 23:25:05 and read 13593 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 6):
...and AS has stated they wish to strengthen their alliance with AA; it's just become more difficult due to their bankruptcy disrupting normal operations there.

How convenient for DL though, no?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-11 23:48:25 and read 13517 times.

Quoting Yukon880 (Reply 7):
How convenient for DL though, no?

I mean really, looking at the press release video, AS's presence seemed sort of out of place if nothing more than DL trying to stick it to American.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-10-11 23:55:11 and read 13487 times.

Slots on the lhr end?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-10-12 05:07:48 and read 13046 times.

Quoting pu (Reply 1):
Hitting at London now is smart while AA teters in chaos and from a market weak for AA anyway. London remains the big prize in Europe and Delta is slowly, slowly, making inroads. BA will keep their large Indian customer base transiting Heathrow for America, but now Delta captures a wonderful market in SEA going to Europe. LAX-LHR on the radar?

While Seattle to LHR would be a good route for DL to start since BA owns it alone, Pan AM used to fly it daily with a 747. DL is an anchor arline offering flights over both Oceans at SEA which has never happened before.

LAX to LHR is another matter for DL since four airline from the UK & USA fly it with up 7 flights daily. ANZ also flies it daily as part of Auckland to LHR. Delta would be better using an additional LHR slot for another JFK or Atlanta flight.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2012-10-12 05:19:10 and read 13009 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 8):
AS's presence seemed sort of out of place if nothing more than DL trying to stick it to American.

No, it's more about getting DOT approval by saying, "Lookee here, we've got ourselves a strong local partner in SEA who will also funnel traffic to/from our flights all over the PNW and West Coast."

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2012-10-12 06:29:01 and read 12731 times.

Don't AS Board Room members have access to all DL Skyclubs? I don't think they have the same access to AA Admirals Lounge. That must be a big selling point for AS FF's with club membership, IMO.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-12 08:01:03 and read 11962 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
While Seattle to LHR would be a good route for DL to start since BA owns it alone, Pan AM used to fly it daily with a 747.

Always a good rationale for opening a new route! Perhaps in their statistical analyses, the Delta network planners use a dummy variable, 0=Was served by Pan Am; 1=Was not served by Pan Am. Maybe they also have a variable for number of TATL 757 flights operated by UA.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: mayor
Posted 2012-10-12 08:17:04 and read 11811 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
No, it's more about getting DOT approval by saying, "Lookee here, we've got ourselves a strong local partner in SEA who will also funnel traffic to/from our flights all over the PNW and West Coast."

Except that the DOT has said, in the original SEA-HND route case, that merely having a codeshare, with no control over the flights and schedules of the partner, is not a reason to award the route. Wouldn't that also apply to SEA-LHR?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-10-12 08:23:36 and read 11726 times.

A SEA-LHR would not require any DOT approvals. Its an open-skies market. Simply need the appropriate slot at the other end.

For comments about LAX-LHR, Delta essentially already has flown this route recently. Air France tried it part of the JV back in 2008-9.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: mayor
Posted 2012-10-12 08:28:41 and read 11650 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):
A SEA-LHR would not require any DOT approvals. Its an open-skies market. Simply need the appropriate slot at the other end.

Oops.....forgot about that.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-10-12 08:49:34 and read 11426 times.

What has changed since the last time they flew SEALHR that would fill up the plane this time?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-10-12 09:03:44 and read 11273 times.

Because it was so successful for NW the last time around?

Quoting pu (Reply 1):
from a market weak for AA anyway.

LHR is not a weak market for AA.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2012-10-12 09:05:10 and read 11247 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 17):

Favorable slot times in at LHR will help fill up the plane this time

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: hatbutton
Posted 2012-10-12 09:05:23 and read 11249 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):
Well, it's been said before that AS is a codeshare whore...

I get the reference, because AS chooses to hang with anyone no matter what alliance they are in. But if you are a codeshare whore for the total number of codeshares you have then AS is no less so than any airline in a major alliance. AS has 15 airline partners whereas there are 28 in Star and 18 in Skyteam.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-12 09:11:33 and read 11168 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):

For comments about LAX-LHR, Delta essentially already has flown this route recently. Air France tried it part of the JV back in 2008-9.

and if it were to be done again it would benefit from the smaller aircraft Delta used. IMO the AF 777 on LAX-LHR was....a terrible idea.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 17):

hopefully better slot times and a smaller aircraft.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: steex
Posted 2012-10-12 09:15:24 and read 11134 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 17):
What has changed since the last time they flew SEALHR that would fill up the plane this time?

Presumably, if Delta actually goes through with it, the schedule will be improved. The original schedule was as follows:

NW 105 LHR 18:30 SEA 20:55
NW 106 SEA 22:20 LHR 16:15+1

This left almost no time for connection onto AS by the time NW 105 arrived from LHR and passengers went through customs. Additionally, the eastbound flight was considerably later than most people desired, not getting into London until late afternoon. The poor times and connectivity left the route to sink or swim as primarily an O&D route against a strong incumbent who offered superior AS connectivity (not to mention beyond-LHR connections) with a better schedule, a pretty tough task.

By comparison, here is BA's schedule on the route:

BA 49 LHR 15:10 SEA 16:40
BA 48 SEA 18:55 LHR 12:00+1

Obviously, much more sensible. The BA 49 arrival allows ample time to connect to most AS evening flights, and the BA 48 schedule still essentially allows a full work day in Seattle while arriving into London 4+ hours sooner. A better schedule for Delta won't solve the fact that BA is entrenched and offers beyond-LHR connectivity, but it at least would give them a much better shot.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: EVA777SEA
Posted 2012-10-12 09:29:12 and read 10982 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 18):

Because it was so successful for NW the last time around?

One thing to note is that back when NW tried it BA was running 13x to 14x weekly frequency year round going as high as 14x744 weekly during the summer. Ever since the great recession they have been running 7x744 weekly. Capacity on the route is down, and as noted above, NW used a horrible schedule. I think DL at least has a shot of making it work with a 763. Capacity on the route would still be down vs 4 or 5 years ago.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: davescj
Posted 2012-10-12 10:26:20 and read 10509 times.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 12):
Don't AS Board Room members have access to all DL Skyclubs? I don't think they have the same access to AA Admirals Lounge. That must be a big selling point for AS FF's with club membership, IMO.

AS Board Room members get the DL SC when flying on a DL flight.

Dave

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-10-12 11:51:42 and read 10325 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):
Delta essentially already has flown this route recently. Air France tried it part of the JV back in 2008-9.

Not really, Air France had zero market presence from the UK end, something Delta would not be saddled with.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: burnsie28
Posted 2012-10-12 12:03:52 and read 10172 times.

Quoting EVA777SEA (Reply 23):
NW used a horrible schedule.

It's not like they had a choice.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-10-12 12:19:55 and read 10275 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 21):
and if it were to be done again it would benefit from the smaller aircraft Delta used. IMO the AF 777 on LAX-LHR was....a terrible idea.

Per seat costs will just be higher if they use a smaller plane and there is certainly lots of demand on the route. What would Delta use the A330? It would still bomb the planes were literally almost empty up front every flight they flew. It was a joint venture by both Delta and Air France sold on delta.com listed on every same search engine and site it was to most people a Delta flight already. Delta will not be going back to that market it has been tested and failed miserably so recently. It really was a disaster route no chance of building into the market or anything

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-12 12:22:59 and read 10218 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 19):
Favorable slot times in at LHR will help fill up the plane this time
Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 26):
It's not like they had a choice.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: burnsie28
Posted 2012-10-12 13:35:54 and read 9731 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 27):
What would Delta use the A330?

LHR is all flat bed, so either a 764 (which is typical for LHR) or a modded 763

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-12 14:01:35 and read 9531 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 27):
Per seat costs will just be higher if they use a smaller plane and there is certainly lots of demand on the route.

*sigh* If what you say is true then Delta would start nearly every new route with a 777/333 or 744.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 27):
What would Delta use the A330?

763

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 27):
Delta will not be going back to that market it has been tested and failed miserably so recently. It really was a disaster route no chance of building into the market or anything

Well Good news is if say the wont they likely will. You clearly have NO idea whats going on with Delta in LA. You have also said they wouldn't start SFO/PHX/LAS/SMF/SAN and that they would all quickly fail.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 27):
It was a joint venture by both Delta and Air France sold on delta.com listed on every same search engine and site it was to most people a Delta flight already.

not really. It was a very early JV route. DL/AF didn't have near the close relationship they have now.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: rwsea
Posted 2012-10-12 14:10:51 and read 9435 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 17):
What has changed since the last time they flew SEALHR that would fill up the plane this time?

- better slot times, with connecting options on both ends
- BA has cut capacity on the SEA route
- DL now has a much larger international presence in SEA (NW only operated to NRT and AMS)
- DL is running a smaller plane (NW flew the 332)
- The flat-bed product is more on par with what BA offers, compared to NW's A332
- The economy in the US is improving again

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-10-12 15:09:55 and read 9089 times.

Quoting rwsea (Reply 31):
BA has cut capacity on the SEA route

BA has used a 744 or occasionaly a 777 on the route. How have the cut capacity to SEA?

If DL could get the LHR slots, would they start both SEA and SLC? They already do their other hubs/focus cities to LHR (except for MEM and CVG) so I could see these two if they wanted to expand LHR service.

What about DL starting PDX-LHR, or would they first do PDX-CDG if they wanted a second PDX to Europe flight?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: mayor
Posted 2012-10-12 15:19:48 and read 9058 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):

If DL could get the LHR slots, would they start both SEA and SLC?

I doubt it........I heard a rumor when last in SLC that DL is thinking of dropping the SLC-CDG flight and making SLC a strictly domestic hub.


About the same time that AA got BNA-LHR and RDU-LHR, DL was hoping to get a London route out of SLC, but it wasn't to be.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: steex
Posted 2012-10-12 15:55:49 and read 8776 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):
BA has used a 744 or occasionaly a 777 on the route. How have the cut capacity to SEA?

See:
Quoting EVA777SEA (Reply 23):
One thing to note is that back when NW tried it BA was running 13x to 14x weekly frequency year round going as high as 14x744 weekly during the summer. Ever since the great recession they have been running 7x744 weekly.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-10-12 16:50:32 and read 8481 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 13):
Always a good rationale for opening a new route! Perhaps in their statistical analyses, the Delta network planners use a dummy variable, 0=Was served by Pan Am; 1=Was not served by Pan Am. Maybe they also have a variable for number of TATL 757 flights operated by UA.

I didn't say PA made money on the route, but people in Seattle did get a 747 with daily nonstops to LHR at a time when European flights from SEA were limited, remember SAS at SEA.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-10-12 17:28:05 and read 8338 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 33):
I doubt it........I heard a rumor when last in SLC that DL is thinking of dropping the SLC-CDG flight and making SLC a strictly domestic hub.

Really? I thought the SLC-CDG flight did very well. That's what others on A.net have indicated.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: questions
Posted 2012-10-12 17:33:24 and read 8328 times.

767s... 330s... all this talk... on which routes is DL using its 777s?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2012-10-12 17:43:42 and read 8275 times.

Quoting davescj (Reply 24):
AS Board Room members get the DL SC when flying on a DL flight.

Or on an AS flight:

"Delta Sky Club

Board Room members must have a valid ticket for same day travel on Alaska Airlines or Delta Air Lines."

Taken from AS website:
http://www.alaskaair.com/content/gif...boardroom-locations-and-hours.aspx

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: sancho99504
Posted 2012-10-12 17:49:55 and read 8267 times.

Quoting questions (Reply 37):

Sin, syd, dxb, Los, jnb, nrt,

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: dlramp4life
Posted 2012-10-12 17:51:44 and read 8272 times.

Quoting questions (Reply 37):
767s... 330s... all this talk... on which routes is DL using its 777s?

Indeed... Don't hear anything about the 777s

So if SEA-LHR happens, what LHR or 763ER route is getting screwed or equipment swap.?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: mayor
Posted 2012-10-12 18:07:11 and read 8188 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 36):

Really? I thought the SLC-CDG flight did very well. That's what others on A.net have indicated.

That's what I thought, too. However, at this point, it's still a rumor.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-10-12 18:08:26 and read 8192 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 22):
Obviously, much more sensible. The BA 49 arrival allows ample time to connect to most AS evening flights, and the BA 48 schedule still essentially allows a full work day in Seattle while arriving into London 4+ hours sooner. A better schedule for Delta won't solve the fact that BA is entrenched and offers beyond-LHR connectivity, but it at least would give them a much better shot

Yes with BA has connectivity with AS in SEA and their network at LHR, DL with AS in SEA and Skyteam at LHR. Maybe their improved relationship with AS will benefit DL/AS vs BA/AS.

Quoting steex (Reply 22):
Presumably, if Delta actually goes through with it, the schedule will be improved. The original schedule was as follows:

NW 105 LHR 18:30 SEA 20:55
NW 106 SEA 22:20 LHR 16:15+1

Yes there seems to be very few AS markets one could connect to from LHR, with that old NW schedule, but great connecting opportunities on the outbound.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):
What about DL starting PDX-LHR, or would they first do PDX-CDG if they wanted a second PDX to Europe flight?

I have my doubts that PDX could support another daily n/s to Europe, but if DL did, I'd guess LHR would be better O/D but CDG more connecting opportunities, most of which could likely be reached via AMS however.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-12 19:44:32 and read 7818 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):
If DL could get the LHR slots, would they start both SEA and SLC? They already do their other hubs/focus cities to LHR (except for MEM and CVG) so I could see these two if they wanted to expand LHR service.

No. SLC will see AMS before London I believe. IF Delta will start a new Western US route to LHR it will be LAX (after SEA that is)

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):
BA has used a 744 or occasionaly a 777 on the route. How have the cut capacity to SEA?

down from mostly 2x daily(sometimes 13x weekly) to a single flight.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):
What about DL starting PDX-LHR, or would they first do PDX-CDG if they wanted a second PDX to Europe flight?

Same boat as SLC but flip flop it. CDG will happen before London.

Quoting mayor (Reply 33):
I heard a rumor when last in SLC that DL is thinking of dropping the SLC-CDG flight and making SLC a strictly domestic hub.

I wouldn't count on this. I do believe SLC is still paying Delta for its CDG flights.

Quoting questions (Reply 37):

ATL-DXB
ATL-JNB
LAX-SYD
LAX-NRT
DTW-PVG
DTW-PEK
DTW-ICN
MSP-NRT
and the 777LRs are going into PSV checks this winter.

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 40):
So if SEA-LHR happens, what LHR or 763ER route is getting screwed or equipment swap.?

why would anything get changed? 767 mods are really about to start up. Delta would have more than enough to start the route in S13 or S14.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: context
Posted 2012-10-12 20:33:42 and read 7606 times.

Indeed, according to the Port Of Seattle BA's performance MOM for July 2012 is +3.16% and YOY +15.23% which is healthy growth for any route and may indicate room for competition as I've previously suggested. I think the question is not whether SEA can support another daily service to LHR but whether DL has more profitable places to send a long-haul A/C.

Quoting steex (Reply 22):
Additionally, the eastbound flight was considerably later than most people desired, not getting into London until late afternoon. The poor times and connectivity left the route to sink or swim as primarily an O&D route against a strong incumbent who offered superior AS connectivity (not to mention beyond-LHR connections) with a better schedule, a pretty tough task.

I think you're right that this IS a route targeted at O&D which is probably not entirely the case of the BA flight which offers OW's only non-stop to the European network. We already have a well established schedule to AMS which affords similar connections to Europe for ST as LHR does for BA and OW.

Thought I'd also add that the Port Of Seattle statistics report +4.65% YOY for total enplaned and deplaned pax. We've had a lot of new service to different european locations so it's a reasonable question if pax are simply reaching their destinations by routes other than LHR. Looks like their is modest growth in European travel generally. Thoughts?

[Edited 2012-10-12 20:46:54]

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-13 07:03:48 and read 6970 times.

Quoting context (Reply 44):
I think you're right that this IS a route targeted at O&D which is probably not entirely the case of the BA flight which offers OW's only non-stop to the European network.

With connections on the SEA end instead of LHR, it'd be no less targeted at O&D than the BA flight. Granted, the connections that BA is able to offer are probably more profitable.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 36):
Really? I thought the SLC-CDG flight did very well. That's what others on A.net have indicated.

Well that settles it then! I doubt people who have access to the profitability metrics would post here; all that would be posted here would be load factor information, and I think most people understand that load factor is not the best indicator of profitability. I'd honestly be surprised if it was that profitable, as the O&D base is low, and due to SLC's western location, DL is competing for connecting passengers with essentially every route from the U.S. to Paris. The only thing unique DL would be offering is a 1-stop, same-airline connection for those who don't have the option otherwise, but I doubt the market from SGU or TWF to CDG is that big. Then again, I don't have access to the information.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2012-10-13 09:14:36 and read 6754 times.

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 40):

So if SEA-LHR happens, what LHR or 763ER route is getting screwed or equipment swap.?

DL has a lot of flexibility in the 763ER fleet. They had relatively low utilization last summer, so I don't think it is certain that any route would get cut to support the SEA-PVG and SEA-LHR additions.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: seabosdca
Posted 2012-10-13 09:29:52 and read 6705 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 46):
DL has a lot of flexibility in the 763ER fleet. They had relatively low utilization last summer, so I don't think it is certain that any route would get cut to support the SEA-PVG and SEA-LHR additions.

   Once the mods are done, they should be able to add several daily 763ER roundtrips without any trouble.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: MSPNWA
Posted 2012-10-13 10:57:25 and read 6545 times.

Quoting context (Reply 44):
I think the question is not whether SEA can support another daily service to LHR but whether DL has more profitable places to send a long-haul A/C.

I believe the question is still whether or not SEA can support another LHR flight. For example it would be the smallest U.S. metro area with competition to LHR (and the smallest to offer more than one flight daily), and overall capacity would be very high for its size. In other words, A DL flight would turn SEA-LHR from very well-served to a statistical anomaly. I can't imagine there being money to be made on SEA-LHR.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Prost
Posted 2012-10-13 11:17:04 and read 6508 times.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 48):
In other words, A DL flight would turn SEA-LHR from very well-served to a statistical anomaly. I can't imagine there being money to be made on SEA-LHR.

I think we can all agree that British Airways is a strong competitor, but I think that there might be room for DL on this route as well. There are a lot of Skymiles and Alaska Air mileage partner plan member in Seattle, and if DL can sweeten the pot for AS mileage plan members to choose DL va. BA, that might help.

I'm curious what effect EK SEA-DXB has had on all trans Atlantic routes out of SEA. Have they taken most of the Indian sub-continent traffic away that used to connect in LHR, FRA,AMS, and CDG?

As SEA-LHR would fall under the DL/AF/KL joint venture, I would hope KL or AF would have a desirable slot at LHR they'd let DL use for the route that would have more desirable times then when NW operated the route.

Also, SEA seems to be an anomaly to most cities its size in regards to international routes served. I can't think of another city it's size that isn't a full on hub that has its depth and breadth of international routes served, at least in the US.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LJ
Posted 2012-10-13 13:23:15 and read 6349 times.

Quoting Prost (Reply 49):

As SEA-LHR would fall under the DL/AF/KL joint venture, I would hope KL or AF would have a desirable slot at LHR they'd let DL use for the route that would have more desirable times then when NW operated the route.

AFAIK the old LHR-LAX slot is still available (now used by KL)

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2012-10-13 14:13:21 and read 6286 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
it's more about getting DOT approval,

If no other U.S. flagged carrier flies SEA-LHR it might fly under the confines of the "Fly America Act" http://www.ogc.doc.gov/ogc/fl/fald/itl/itlv14.pdf

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: dlramp4life
Posted 2012-10-13 14:17:49 and read 6258 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 46):
DL has a lot of flexibility in the 763ER fleet. They had relatively low utilization last summer, so I don't think it is certain that any route would get cut to support the SEA-PVG and SEA-LHR additions.

I thought there was no flex in the fleet since it is, I think the biggest work horse in the international fleet. But does explain why I have seen them doing some domestic runs.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-10-13 14:39:08 and read 6193 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
Pan AM used to fly it daily with a 747.

Pan Am operated SEA-LHR daily in the summer for a few years but I can't recall them every operating daily year round. In the winter it was rarely more than 3 or 4 flights a weeek. For example, in the February 1987 timetable (4 years before their demise) SEA-LHR was only 3 x week.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 25):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):
Delta essentially already has flown this route recently. Air France tried it part of the JV back in 2008-9.

Not really, Air France had zero market presence from the UK end, something Delta would not be saddled with.

How would AF's market presence affect DL since DL passengers would be booking the DL flight number, not the AF flight?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LAXtoATL
Posted 2012-10-13 15:11:18 and read 6149 times.

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 52):
I thought there was no flex in the fleet since it is, I think the biggest work horse in the international fleet. But does explain why I have seen them doing some domestic runs.

The 763ER is the backbone of the DL international fleet. But DL had a lot of slack in its international fleet last summer. Aside from the 747s, I believe the 763ER had the lowest scheduled utilization. I think part of that is because there are so many 767s that when you start to cut back, it will be cut in higher quantities (even if all fleet types are cut at the same percentage), another reason is because the 767s were used on some of the thinest routes in the system so when routes get cut naturally those are the first to go, and lastly the 767s were going through 2 mods at the time (the fleet was getting flat-beds and winglets). With controls on capacity now and for the forseeable future, I would expect DL to maintain a lot of slack on all their international fleets with the exception of the 77L.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-10-13 16:50:10 and read 6020 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 51):
If no other U.S. flagged carrier flies SEA-LHR it might fly under the confines of the "Fly America Act"

Actually BA flight fully qualifies under the act. Its an AA codeshare as part of their JV.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-14 09:57:12 and read 5530 times.

One thing's for sure, you don't make statements like this unless something is actively in the works. Makes me wonder where they plan on getting the slot pair from.

It took them a while to get the 3rd for ATL although they alternate with DTW.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-10-14 12:25:03 and read 5341 times.

Regarding Pan Am, indeed it never operated daily year-round service between SEA-LHR.

Summers were strong, but winter demand was much weaker and the route dropped frequency.

Additionally during various times the flight had either a SFO or LAX tag, so some portion of the boardings also originated in these other cities.

Interesting to note also, following the sale of Heathrow ops to United in 1990, UA itself found SEA-LHR challenging even while using a smaller 767-300ER and dropped out itself by 1995.

At the time, the UA spokesperson said the following.
"Seattle flights have not kept pace with the level of strong traffic growth on United's other routes from London Heathrow," United said in a statement. "Seattle is a seasonal market that produces less demand for business travel."

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-10-14 12:50:36 and read 5288 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 57):
At the time, the UA spokesperson said the following.
"Seattle flights have not kept pace with the level of strong traffic growth on United's other routes from London Heathrow," United said in a statement. "Seattle is a seasonal market that produces less demand for business travel."

Is that still true given the much greater number of hi-tech, bio-tech, software, Microsoft, Boeing and other companies in there area? Seems like Seattle's business traffic base has grown since 1995.

Quoting Prost (Reply 49):
There are a lot of Skymiles and Alaska Air mileage partner plan member in Seattle, and if DL can sweeten the pot for AS mileage plan members to choose DL va. BA, that might help.

As an AS Mileage Plan member, as far as I'm concerned the partnership with BA is non-existent. You earn like 20% of miles on standard coach ticket on BA.; no EQM; and it's costs like $600 in fuel fees to redeem miles on BA. Worthless. Then again it's well documented what a joke it is trying to redeem FF for travel on DL, so the only benefit of the DL partnership is earning miles for redemption on slightly more generous airlines like AA and AS.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 45):
I'd honestly be surprised if it was that profitable, as the O&D base is low, and due to SLC's western location,

Let's let a DL expert chime in. Is SLC-CDG profitable? That gives DL non-stops to all it's hubs (except the outgoing MEM) from CDG: DTW, ATL, CVG, MSP, SEA, SLC. Given the strenght of DL's partnership with AF in CDG, SLC-CDG seems like a very reasonable addition to their network.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-14 13:54:13 and read 5216 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 58):
Let's let a DL expert chime in.

The only people who would have a conclusive answer won't (or shouldn't) be posting it on here.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 58):
Given the strenght of DL's partnership with AF in CDG, SLC-CDG seems like a very reasonable addition to their network.

The profitability of the route would depend on the following:

1) The size of the local market from Salt Lake City to Paris.

2) The fares that those in (1) pay.

3) The size of the local market from Salt Lake City to points beyond Paris.

4) The fares that those in (2) pay.

5) The size of the local market from behind Salt Lake City to Paris.

6) The fares that those in (5) pay.

7) The size of the local market from behind Salt Lake City to beyond Paris.

8) The fares that those in (7) pay.

9) The operating economics of the Boeing 767-300ER.

We can probably surmise that, given the Salt Lake City MSA's population (1) and (3) probably aren't that big. I have no knowledge of the fares that they pay. Maybe they're astronomical, but I'd be surprised.

Bucket (5) is probably pretty big and how the plane is filled, but several big markets here have nonstop service (LAX, SFO, and SEA). The only way you can get those people to fly via SLC is to give them cheaper fares. There are other large markets without nonstop service (DEN, LAS for most of the year, PHX, and SAN), but to get these people to fly via SLC you have to compete with UA flying via EWR, IAD, and ORD; AA flying via DFW; AC flying via YYZ; BA flying via LHR, etc. So you can probably assume that these people aren't paying high fares. The only people in this bucket who may pay comparatively high fares are cities whereby DL via SLC is the only option for same airline, single-connection service to CDG. This list is very short, and the markets are very, very small.

The only high fares that would be paid by passengers in bucket (7) are by those passengers for whom single-connect options do not exist, and I don't think that this bucket would be very big. LAS, LAX, SFO, and SEA have comprehensive transatlantic service to the major hubs so these passengers are assured of a single connection to most destinations around the world. DEN, PHX, and SAN also have decent nonstop transatlantic service. Even PDX has a nonstop. So these people would be those flying, say, EUG-SLC-CDG-TLS.

I have no specific knowledge of (9).

But I'd be surprised if this route was a clear "winner" in the profitability department.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-14 15:41:34 and read 5105 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 45):
I'd honestly be surprised if it was that profitable

SLC is not the place for Delta to be running a prestige route. It's lasted this long so it must be doing okay.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-10-14 15:52:03 and read 5059 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 60):
SLC is not the place for Delta to be running a prestige route. It's lasted this long so it must be doing okay.

I consider it in the category of secondary cities that's deserving, and can support, one non-stop a day to Europe. That would be like SLC, CVG, SAN, PDX, MEM, PIT, RDU, BWI, TPA and maybe again sometime STL and MSY.

DL canned SLC-NRT pretty quickly but has not done so to SLC-CDG, nor even cut it during the Winter, so that indicates to me it's safe (as is PDX-AMS apparently). MEM-AMS is the one that we all know is very iffy if it will survive as Summer-only, at best.

I was very surprised to see on another thread that SEA is only ranked 16th in size in DL's network incidentally, despite all the international growth at SEA.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2012-10-14 15:55:05 and read 5072 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 61):
I was very surprised to see on another thread that SEA is only ranked 16th in size in DL's network incidentally, despite all the international growth at SEA.

The AS partnership changes the dynamic a bit. Most of DL's expansion at SEA seems to be international, I bet if you rank cities by their international flights only I think SEA would be higher than 16

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-10-14 15:57:57 and read 5052 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 58):
Is that still true given the much greater number of hi-tech, bio-tech, software, Microsoft, Boeing and other companies in there area? Seems like Seattle's business traffic base has grown since 1995.

Its all relative.

Sure Seattle grew, but so did much of America in last 17 years. US GNP has virtually doubled during the period.

So as I said its relative - on a comparative scale Seattle still remains a smaller (and seasonal) market, something pointed out even by the DOT in the Haneda route case.

[Edited 2012-10-14 16:08:43]

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2012-10-14 16:23:34 and read 5038 times.

Load Factors are very good on the SLC-CDG route it has been since the launch year. There is certainly premium traffic on the route and they sell business elite seats i also know that. I think the most common for those is SLC-CDG or SLC-CDG-ABC in Europe, Africa or The MIddle East. Smaller cities that this is the only one stop option. It has operated long enough it is doing well. There are quite a few business connections between Paris and SLC the first is the ski industry. Alot of traffic probably mosly coach but theres alot. Almost every ski company has its north american or worldwide HQ in Utah. Lots of traffic also with pro athletes and ski teams.

Medical equipment and more recently financial services, mining/drilling companies i think also help the route with some premium sales. I have a friend who met on Delta in SLC who works for Goldman Sachs and he flies on this flight regularly i dont know what cabin or where hes connecting too i think often different places but there is business demand out there.

Quoting AirGabon (Reply 9):
The same with a large drilling company from Utah having its EMEA office in GVA: they connect through CDG to SLC. And they use CDG extensively from SLC to reach various African destinations.

I know for one exact date in Fall the flight the mix was
~40 O&D passengers between SLC and CDG
~90 passengers travelling SLC-CDG-xxx
~45 passengers travelling xxx-SLC-CDG

I think SLC-CDG really holds its own on business traffic and gets lots of vacationers during Xmas, Spring break, and summer to keep it profitable all year. I bet the numbers shift to more o&d in summer.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: toobz
Posted 2012-10-14 16:30:06 and read 5011 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 58):

I concur with SLCDELTA...flights are full if not oversold most often. However, obviously that doesn't mean it's printing money. DL is very quick with pulling routes that don't make money..since I am a betting man, I would say its doing ok if not good.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-14 19:20:06 and read 4843 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 61):
DL canned SLC-NRT pretty quickly but has not done so to SLC-CDG, nor even cut it during the Winter, so that indicates to me it's safe (as is PDX-AMS apparently). MEM-AMS is the one that we all know is very iffy if it will survive as Summer-only, at best.

        

Delta has made it clear they aren't flying trips to europe right now just to do it. If SLC-CDG was failing it would be gone. 10x in the winter.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-14 19:49:59 and read 4767 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64):
they sell business elite seats i also know that

I'd sure as hell hope so. If not, that'd be a pretty big problem.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
Delta has made it clear they aren't flying trips to europe right now just to do it. If SLC-CDG was failing it would be gone. 10x in the winter.

Yes, because Delta has never run a TATL route for a couple of years, only to cancel it later.

It may very well be profitable. I didn't claim it was unprofitable. All I said was I'd be surprised if it was very profitable.

The point is, you don't know any more than I do.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: mayor
Posted 2012-10-14 20:02:21 and read 4729 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 67):
It may very well be profitable. I didn't claim it was unprofitable. All I said was I'd be surprised if it was very profitable.

The point is, you don't know any more than I do.

Is the state of Utah still subsidizing the route?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2012-10-14 20:38:50 and read 4684 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 55):
Actually BA flight fully qualifies under the act. Its an AA codeshare

Yes, the BA and AA code share takes care of that. My thoughts were more for DL using their own metal in that I understood this to be a DL thread.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-14 20:45:50 and read 4677 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 67):
The point is, you don't know any more than I do.

LOL never made the claim.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-14 21:16:59 and read 4651 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 67):

Yes, because Delta has never run a TATL route for a couple of years, only to cancel it later.

         Ok. whatever you say.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 67):
The point is, you don't know any more than I do.

wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. big talker...thats cool man.

Quoting mayor (Reply 68):

They have to be. Clearly it cant be doing well on its own.....  

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: toobz
Posted 2012-10-15 03:37:55 and read 4425 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 67):

Yes, because Delta has never run a TATL route for a couple of years, only to cancel it later.


DL is a way different beast now then in the past..trust we don't stick around for long in money losing markets. Days of prestige is over. Like I said earlier, I believe the flights are doing ok to good. Flight is full in both cabins alot. I know that's not a tell all, but I personally think the flight does better load wise than say PDX-AMS which I fly a lot. BE is quite booked most of the time SLC-CDG.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-15 04:48:38 and read 4323 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 71):
big talker...thats cool man.

Well if the alternative is to spell "wow" with 30 Os after banging your head against a wall (probably correlated), then, yes, I guess that makes me a big talker.

Look, I have taken pains to explain my rationale for why I'd be surprised if the SLC-CDG route was highly profitable. I didn't ever asset conclusively that it wasn't. I used valuable words like "I think" and "I believe" that rarely find their way into discourse on this site. The essence of your argument is "Well, Delta wouldn't be flying it if it wasn't profitable."

Three points:

1) That's a fallacy of logic called "begging the question."

2) For the entire thread, I've only stated that I doubt the route is that profitable.

3) The TATL frequency increases Delta has announced to CDG for summer 2013 on their own do not jibe with flat capacity guidance for the year as a whole. I assume further route cuts are coming. Maybe not in the summer, but almost certainly seasonally. I'm not claiming SLC-CDG will be one of them, but there are probably going to be routes that were operated year-round in 2012 that will be operating seasonally, or without as much frequency, in 2013.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 70):
LOL never made the claim.

You have a habit of responding to posts directed at someone else.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-15 12:59:34 and read 4002 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 68):
Is the state of Utah still subsidizing the route?

I had to do a little research, but could not confirm that any subsidies are being paid by the State of Utah. It's my understanding that prior subsidies have been minimal and were primarily used for advertising support, not for the cost of operations.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2012-10-15 17:51:23 and read 3770 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 73):

I see what you are saying... we are all armchair CEOs, and no one here has access to DL's secrets. But DL has made many cuts across the Atlantic in the past few years and have cited weak performance of the routes/Europe as the reason. They're making a bunch of cash now... running a great airline, a complete 180 from a few years ago. I think it's fairly safe to say that most of the unsuccessful routes are gone.

Maybe we'd see a few "prestige routes" in cities they want to impress and gain customers in, but SLC is Delta-town... they have no reason to fly unprofitable routes there. SLC-NRT didn't work out, but I'm sure the entire Rockies region SLC serves so well can muster up enough passengers to shoot over to EUROPE (not just Paris, don't forget AF can take them all over Europe.)

When you think of it in those terms, an entire chunk of the US with a daily flight on DL to Europe, it doesn't seem that unfeasible

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: seabosdca
Posted 2012-10-15 17:53:31 and read 3776 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 61):
I was very surprised to see on another thread that SEA is only ranked 16th in size in DL's network incidentally, despite all the international growth at SEA.

Look outside the window this evening to see why Seattle is not an ideal market.

Leisure traffic absolutely collapses in the winter. Who wants to spend money to go visit somewhere that's almost guaranteed to be dark and drizzly?

Seattle is a good business destination, but it's no Bay Area, and business can't make up for the total lack of tourist traffic between October and April.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-15 18:22:09 and read 3724 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 75):
I see what you are saying... we are all armchair CEOs, and no one here has access to DL's secrets.

Thanks for trying to understand what I'm saying.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 75):
Maybe we'd see a few "prestige routes" in cities they want to impress and gain customers in, but SLC is Delta-town... they have no reason to fly unprofitable routes there.

But since it seems to be lost on everyone that I've never said that I think the route is unprofitable, let me try to rephrase.

If you lined up all of the DL-operated routes from its hubs to CDG (so ATL, CVG, DTW, JFK, MSP, and SLC), I would think that SLC's relative profitability (on a margin basis, not on absolute net profit to remove the effects of having multiple daily flights from some hubs) would be middle-of-the-pack at best, and probably only better than JFK, which is highly competitive. CVG is a different animal, but its profitability may be negatively affected by much lower connectivity compared with the other hubs.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: mayor
Posted 2012-10-15 21:01:04 and read 3596 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 75):
SLC-NRT didn't work out,

IIRC, this route was something that NW was working on with SLC, BEFORE the DL/NW merger.......or so I heard.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-15 21:52:39 and read 3552 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 73):

whatever. As i said. If it was doing as poorly as you say it would be gone. Sorry...I trust Richard Anderson a hell of a lot more than i do you.
It is has been said 5817089328974238740853789734697813478653487881958923 times(yes that friggin many) that Delta wont be flying money losing routes in the winter....to piss away the money made in the summer. So clearly one of two things are happening. Anderson is telling bold face lies(don't think so) or SLC-CDG isn't doing *that* bad. My guess it it isn't nearly the junk route you are making it out to be.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 73):

3) The TATL frequency increases Delta has announced to CDG for summer 2013 on their own do not jibe with flat capacity guidance for the year as a whole

and here is the problem.....most fo the capacity was already planned a long time ago.....Delta just turned on the PR machine and most fell for it.
BOS-CDG/EWR-CDG(AF)/ATL-CDG #2/DTW-CDG #2 all had flights last summer. EWR-CDG is a drop in capacity. So the only real add is JFK-AMS #2(and i think capacity will still be down a few points. Delta also dumped a few routes last summer that are not coming back.)
Again. Its not real growth. its mostly the return of last summer capacity. (and to be clear, when they say capacity should be MOSTLY flat....they are talking about from summer to summer. Delta has a ton of seasonal routes coming back. ATL-MXP, JFK-ARN/CPH come to mind)

and I forgot to add, Delta is also cutting ORD-CDG....going to AF.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: ericaasen
Posted 2012-10-15 22:38:45 and read 3494 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 79):
and I forgot to add, Delta is also cutting ORD-CDG....going to AF.

But the rumor is that's only due to the lack of an available 330 for the summer. Supposedly DL would want a 330 on ORD-CDG for the summer, but they just couldn't work the ship routing.

[Edited 2012-10-15 22:44:23]

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-10-15 22:55:30 and read 3453 times.

Quoting ericaasen (Reply 80):

But the rumor is that's only due to the lack of an available 330 for the summer. Supposedly DL would want a 330 on ORD-CDG for the summer, but they just couldn't work the ship routing.

could be. No idea what kind of slack the 330 fleet will have this summer. (the 332s im sure will be flying like crazy. I'd be shocked if they couldn't get more flying out of the 333....but that may be to big)

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: ericaasen
Posted 2012-10-15 23:01:21 and read 3444 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 81):
could be. No idea what kind of slack the 330 fleet will have this summer. (the 332s im sure will be flying like crazy. I'd be shocked if they couldn't get more flying out of the 333....but that may be to big)

That's what I was thinking, plus I'm betting with interior mods still on going there won't be much slack in the 330/767 fleets for the summer.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-10-15 23:28:58 and read 3430 times.

Quoting ericaasen (Reply 80):
But the rumor is that's only due to the lack of an available 330 for the summer. Supposedly DL would want a 330 on ORD-CDG for the summer, but they just couldn't work the ship routing.

Again, DL flying ORD-CDG was a temporary thing. Coordinated between DL and AF due to AF being short on the right a/c for the route. This is what was announced last year when the route started. It was never suppose to be permanent.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-16 07:50:13 and read 3215 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 79):
If it was doing as poorly as you say
Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 79):
My guess it it isn't nearly the junk route you are making it out to be.

DeltaL1011man, read post 77. Then read it again. Then tell me how I said it was "doing so poorly" or a "junk route." Then if you think I did, read it again. Rinse, wash, and repeat until the following sinks in. All I said was I doubt it's that profitable. That's a statement of degree. I provided my rationale for that. The most specific I have gotten is asserting that it's probably not as profitable as CDG routes from ATL, DTW, and MSP. You obviously don't have any information to the contrary you're willing to share other than, "Well, it's still flying, isn't it?" You are chasing your tail, because that is circular reasoning. (For the avoidance of doubt, that's a metaphor, BTW.)

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 79):
Anderson is telling bold face lies(don't think so)

When, pray tell, has Richard Anderson made a statement about the relative profitability of the SLC-CDG route?

Figure of speech is bald-face lies, BTW.

[Edited 2012-10-16 08:33:53]

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: cokepopper
Posted 2012-10-16 08:26:53 and read 3168 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 79):
EWR-CDG is a drop in capacity.

How is this a drop in Capacity when neither Delta or AF operated this flight
last summer?

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: Bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-16 10:08:13 and read 3068 times.

I doubt it will work. Nothing to connect beyond LHR. Long flight, BA will have the corporate traffic and connections. No different than when AA and UA flew LAX-CDG and failed.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-16 11:05:45 and read 2971 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 79):
and here is the problem.....most fo the capacity was already planned a long time ago.....Delta just turned on the PR machine and most fell for it.
BOS-CDG/EWR-CDG(AF)/ATL-CDG #2/DTW-CDG #2 all had flights last summer. EWR-CDG is a drop in capacity. So the only real add is JFK-AMS #2(and i think capacity will still be down a few points. Delta also dumped a few routes last summer that are not coming back.)

I'll grant you that. I see these flights operated last summer.

Not sure which routes that operated in summer 2011 aren't coming back that have been announced, with the exception of the ORD-CDG flight you're referring to, which was excluded from the CDG press release. Difficult to tell, as it doesn't look like the summer TATL schedule has not been uploaded yet.

Quoting cokepopper (Reply 85):
How is this a drop in Capacity when neither Delta or AF operated this flight
last summer?

I do show that this flight was operated until March 2012. This service was not announced as seasonal, so it and JFK would be the only additions thus far, offset by ORD-CDG.

Maybe the math works out for close to flat capacity.

Topic: RE: Delta's Richard Anderson Hinting On SEA-LHR
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-16 11:13:00 and read 2969 times.

Just noted the AS-DL press release from last week stated 1,200 passengers interline between the 2 airlines in SEA each day. That works out to about 450,000 per year.

DL enplaned and deplaned 3.8m passengers in SEA in 2011. Assuming the 450,000 is two ways, which it usually is, as people like bigger numbers, that works out to a 12% connecting percentage in 2011. Assuming the 450,000 is one way, the number is 25%. Still not that high given the level of DL's international service at SEA.

http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1732


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