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Topic: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 07:24:19 and read 8973 times.

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

9K BWI-HGR DEC 4>0 JAN 4>0 FEB 4>0 MAR 4>0 APR 5>0 MAY 5>0 JUN 4>0 JUL 5>0
9K BWI-LNS DEC 5>0 JAN 5>0 FEB 5>0 MAR 5>0 APR 5>0 MAY 5>0 JUN 5>0 JUL 5>0

AC ALB-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.5
AC BNA-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.4
AC BOS-YOW DEC 1.7>1.5
AC BOS-YUL DEC 6>5
AC CVG-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.3 JAN 1.7>1.6
AC DTW-YYZ DEC 4>3
AC GRR-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.4
AC IND-YYZ DEC 1.8>1.6
AC LGA-YYZ DEC 13>12
AC MDT-YYZ DEC 1.8>1.5
AC MKE-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.4 JAN 1.7>1.6
AC MSP-YYZ DEC 4>3
AC PVD-YYZ DEC 1.5>1.2
AC RIC-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.5
AC ROC-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.5
AC STL-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.5
AC SYR-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.5

AF IAD-CDG APR 2>1.7
*AF MSP-CDG MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0

AM FAT-GDL DEC 0.5>0.7
AM LAS-GDL DEC 0.3>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.3>0 MAR 0.1>0

**BA EWR-ORY DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.8 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8
**BA JFK-ORY APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

BB SJU-STT JAN 4>5 FEB 3>5 MAR 2>5 APR 2>6 MAY 2>6 JUN 0>4 JUL 0>4
BB SJU-STX JAN 3>5 FEB 3>6 MAR 3>6 APR 1.2>7 MAY 1.1>7 JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5
BB STT-SJU JAN 4>5 FEB 3>6 MAR 3>6 APR 3>7 MAY 3>7 JUN 0.4>5 JUL 0.4>5
BB STT-STX JAN 1.7>4 FEB 1.0>4 MAR 1.0>4 APR 1.0>4 MAY 1.0>3 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2
BB STX-SJU FEB 4>6 MAR 4>7 APR 4>8 MAY 4>8 JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5

BW FLL-POS APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.9 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.9
BW MCO-POS MAR 0.1>0.3 APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3

DL DTW-AVL JAN 0.1>0.0
DL DTW-PVG DEC 1.0>0.9
DL DTW-YOW DEC 1.8>1.7
Not coming back...
*DL JFK-VLC MAY 0.3>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
DL LAX-IND DEC 0.3>0.2
Looks like I won a bet
**DL MEM-AMS MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.5>0 JUL 0.6>0
DL MEM-JFK JAN 0.1>0.0

EP ILL-THR DEC 0>1.8 JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>1.9 MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>1.8 JUL 0>1.9

*G3 MCO-SDQ DEC 0>0.5 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0

HA HNL-BNE MAR 0.4>0.7 APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.4>0.5

HI BLD-GCW MAR 0.3>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

KE GUM-ICN DEC 2>1.3

LA LAX-LIM APR 1.8>1.0 MAY 1.9>1.0
LA SFO-LIM FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.1 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0

LI SJU-ANU JUL 1.0>0.1
LI SJU-EIS JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
LI SJU-SVD JUL 0.9>0
LI STT-AXA JAN 0.7>1.0 FEB 0.6>1.0 MAR 0.6>1.0 APR 0.6>1.0 MAY 0.5>1.0 JUN 0.6>1.0 JUL 1.0>0.1
LI STT-SXM FEB 1.1>1.0 MAR 1.1>1.0 APR 1.1>1.0 MAY 1.2>1.0 JUN 1.1>1.0 JUL 1.0>0.1
LI STX-SXM JAN 0.6>0.9 FEB 0.6>1.0 MAR 0.6>1.0 APR 0.6>1.0 MAY 0.5>1.0 JUN 0.6>1.0 JUL 0.5>0.1

LR MIA-MGA DEC 0.1>0.2

LW HGR-IAD DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2
LW IAD-LNS DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2

NK MCO-ORD FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 1.8>1.0

OR LAX-AMS JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2
OR MIA-AMS MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2

S4 BOS-LIS JUL 0.1>0.3
S4 BOS-PDL APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.5 JUN 0.3>0.6 JUL 0.3>0.7
S4 BOS-TER JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1

SY MSP-ANC JUL 1.5>1.4

UA CLE-MCO MAR 3>4
UA CLE-MHT APR 3>1.6 MAY 3>1.6 JUN 3>1.8 JUL 3>1.9
UA CLE-PVD MAY 4>3 JUN 4>1.8 JUL 4>1.9
UA CLE-RDU JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3
UA DEN-CLE APR 4>3
UA DEN-DAL JAN 0.1>0.0
UA GUM-NRT MAR 3>4
UA IAH-AMA APR 4>3
UA IAH-BOS MAY 4>5
UA IAH-BTR MAY 8>9
UA IAH-CHS MAY 1.9>3
UA IAH-DGO JUL 1.0>0.8
UA IAH-LAS APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
UA IAH-MCI MAY 8>9 JUL 8>9
UA IAH-MEM MAY 5>6 JUL 5>6
UA IAH-MFE JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9
UA IAH-OMA MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
UA IAH-PHX APR 7>5 MAY 7>5 JUN 7>5 JUL 7>5
UA IAH-RSW MAR 3>4
UA IAH-SEA JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7
UA IAH-SMF MAR 2>3
UA IAH-TYS MAR 3>1.8
UA IAH-YVR MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>3 JUL 1.0>3
UA LAX-ABQ APR 1.5>1.0
UA LAX-ASE JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0
UA LAX-BOS MAR 0.8>1.6
UA LAX-BZN JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0
UA LAX-EWR MAR 7>6
UA LAX-IAH MAR 12>11 APR 12>11 MAY 13>11
UA LAX-JAC JUL 0>1.0
UA ORD-AVL JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2
UA ORD-BIL JUL 0>0.7
UA ORD-FCA JUL 0>1.0
UA ORD-IAH APR 12>13 MAY 12>13 JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13
UA ORD-MKE JAN 9>8
UA ORD-MSO JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0
UA ORD-RAP JUN 1.0>3 JUL 1.0>3
UA SFO-JAC JUL 0>1.0
UA SFO-MSO JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0

US CLT-BZE JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
US CLT-CZM JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
US CLT-DEN JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
US CLT-JAX MAY 7>8 JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8
US CLT-LAX APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
US CLT-MIA MAY 7>6 JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6
US CLT-NAS JUL 4>3
US CLT-PBI MAY 6>5 JUN 6>4 JUL 6>4
US CLT-PDX APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
US CLT-PLS JUN 1.0>1.3 JUL 1.0>1.3
US CLT-RSW MAY 7>5 JUN 7>4 JUL 7>4
US CLT-SEA APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4
US CLT-SFO APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
US CLT-SMF MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
US CLT-TPA MAY 9>8 JUN 9>8 JUL 9>8
US DCA-FLL MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
US DCA-MCO APR 7>8
US DCA-NAS JUN 1.2>1.0 JUL 1.1>1.0
US DCA-PBI MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
US DCA-RSW APR 4>1.7 MAY 4>0.3 JUN 4>0.2 JUL 4>0.1
US PHL-DEN JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
US PHL-FLL JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
US PHL-LAX MAR 5>7 APR 4>6 MAY 4>6 JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6
US PHL-MBJ JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
US PHL-MCO JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7
US PHL-MIA JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
US PHL-PBI MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
US PHL-PDX MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
US PHL-RSW MAY 4>3 JUN 4>2 JUL 4>2
US PHL-SAN MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
US PHL-SEA MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4
US PHL-SFO APR 3>4 MAY 3>5 JUN 3>5 JUL 3>5
US PHL-SMF MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
US PHL-SXM JUN 0.3>0.5 JUL 0.3>0.4
US PHX-CLT APR 8>9 MAY 8>9 JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9
US PHX-EWR JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
US PHX-FLL JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0
US PHX-LAS JAN 8>9
US PHX-PVR JUN 4>3
US PHX-TPA JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.7
US PHX-ZLO JUN 0.2>0 JUL 0.1>0

VS SFO-LHR FEB 0.9>0.8

Please note the following is the combined FL/WN schedule using a year-over-year comparison because WN doesn't typically change its published schedule.
WN ABQ-ELP MAR 1.6>0 APR 1.9>0 MAY 1.8>0
WN ABQ-PDX MAR 1.0>0.7
WN ABQ-STL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
WN ABQ-TUS APR 2>1.4 MAY 2.0>1.0
WN ALB-TPA MAR 1.1>3
WN ATL-AUA MAR 1.0>0.6 APR 1.0>0.6 MAY 1.0>0.6
WN ATL-BKG MAR 1.4>0.3 APR 1.8>0 MAY 2>0
WN ATL-BWI MAR 8>9
WN ATL-CLT MAR 3>4 APR 2>1.4 MAY 2>0
WN ATL-FNT MAR 3>2 APR 3>0.8 MAY 3>0
WN ATL-HOU MAR 6>8 APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
WN ATL-LGA MAR 9>8 APR 9>8 MAY 9>8
WN ATL-MDW MAR 8>10 APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
WN ATL-MEM MAR 4>5 APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
WN ATL-MKE MAR 6>5 APR 6>5
WN ATL-ORF MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
WN ATL-PHL MAY 5>4
WN ATL-PHX APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>2
WN ATL-PUJ MAR 1.0>1.6 APR 1.1>1.4 MAY 1.0>1.3
WN ATL-RDU MAY 4>3
WN ATL-ROC APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>0
WN ATL-SAT MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
WN ATL-SDF MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
WN ATL-SFO APR 3>2 MAY 3>2
WN ATL-SJU MAR 1.6>1.2 APR 3>1.3 MAY 3>1.3
WN ATL-TPA MAR 7>8
WN AUS-CUN MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.4 MAY 0.1>0.4
WN AUS-DCA MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN AUS-EWR MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN AUS-HOU MAR 5>6
WN BDL-RSW MAY 0>0.9
WN BHM-BNA MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 1.9>0
WN BHM-PHX MAR 0.7>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
WN BKG-DAL MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN BKG-HOU MAR 0>0.7
WN BKG-MDW MAR 0>0.7
WN BNA-BOS MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.8
WN BNA-BWI APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
WN BNA-EWR MAR 0>1.5 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
WN BNA-FLL MAY 2>3
WN BNA-LGA MAR 0>1.9 APR 0>2.0 MAY 0>2
WN BNA-MSY MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
WN BNA-SAN APR 1.6>1.0 MAY 1.9>1.0
WN BOI-PDX APR 2.0>0.8 MAY 1.9>0
WN BOS-BWI MAR 13>11
WN BOS-MCI APR 0>1.1 MAY 0>1.9
WN BOS-MCO MAR 1.7>1.2
WN BOS-MDW MAR 5>4
WN BOS-RSW APR 1.3>0.9 MAY 1.0>0
WN BUF-BWI MAY 7>6
WN BUR-DEN APR 1.9>0.8 MAY 1.9>0
WN BUR-LAS MAR 11>10
WN BWI-AUA MAR 0.3>0.7 APR 0.3>0.7 MAY 0.3>0.7
WN BWI-BDA APR 0.7>0 MAY 1.0>0.3
WN BWI-CLT APR 3>2 MAY 3>2
WN BWI-CUN MAR 1.2>2 APR 1.2>2 MAY 1.3>2
WN BWI-DAY MAR 3>2
WN BWI-ECP MAY 2>1.1
WN BWI-EWR MAR 3>0.8 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0
WN BWI-FLL MAR 8>11 AP

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 07:24:56 and read 9033 times.

WN BWI-FLL MAR 8>11 APR 8>11 MAY 8>11
WN BWI-FNT APR 0>1.6 MAY 0>3
WN BWI-LGA MAR 3>0 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0
WN BWI-MBJ MAR 1.3>1.6 APR 1.1>1.5 MAY 1.0>1.6
WN BWI-PUJ APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>1.0
WN BWI-PVD MAR 9>8 MAY 9>8
WN BWI-ROC MAY 3>2
WN BWI-RSW MAR 5>6 APR 4>5
WN BWI-SJU MAR 1.7>2 APR 1.9>2
WN CAK-DEN MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN CAK-MDW MAR 0>1.9 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.9
WN CAK-RSW MAR 1.0>3
WN CAK-TPA MAR 1.0>2
WN CLE-LAS MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0.5
WN CLT-HOU MAY 0>1.0
WN CLT-MCO MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0.6
WN CLT-MDW APR 0>1.1 MAY 0>2
WN CMH-MCO MAY 4>3
WN CMH-PHX MAR 1.7>1.0
WN CMH-RSW MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.2>1.9
WN DAL-HRL MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.9
WN DAL-MAF MAR 6>5 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
WN DAL-MSY MAR 7>8 APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
WN DAY-DEN MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN DAY-MCO MAR 1.0>3
WN DAY-TPA MAY 0.1>1.0
WN DCA-STL MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
WN DEN-CUN MAR 0>1.0 APR 0.5>1.0
WN DEN-EWR MAR 3>2 APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.9
WN DEN-LGA MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
WN DEN-MKE APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.8
WN DEN-SDF MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN DEN-SFO MAR 4>3
WN DSM-MDW MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
WN DTW-LAS MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN DTW-RSW MAR 0>1.0
WN ECP-HOU MAY 2>3
WN ECP-MCO MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0
WN ECP-STL MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN EWR-HOU MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3
WN EWR-MSY MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN EWR-PHX MAR 2>1.3 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
WN EYW-MSY MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN FLL-MCO MAR 5>0 APR 5>0 MAY 5>0
WN FLL-MKE MAR 3>1.0
WN FLL-MSY MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3
WN FLL-SJU MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0.5>2.0
WN FLL-STL MAR 1.1>2.0
WN FLL-TPA MAR 7>5 APR 7>5 MAY 7>5
WN FNT-TPA MAY 0>1.0
WN GEG-PDX MAR 2.0>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0
WN HOU-HRL MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
WN HOU-IND MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.9
WN HOU-JAX MAR 1.0>1.7
WN HOU-MAF MAR 1.7>3 APR 1.7>3 MAY 1.7>3
WN HOU-MCI MAR 0>1.8 APR 0.3>1.8 MAY 1.0>1.7
WN HOU-MDW MAY 6>7
WN HOU-PHL APR 1.0>0.4 MAY 1.0>0
WN HOU-PIT MAY 0>1.0
WN HOU-RDU MAR 0>1.8 APR 0.3>1.8 MAY 1.0>1.7
WN HOU-SNA MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN HRL-SAT MAR 1.7>1.0 APR 1.7>0.9 MAY 1.7>0.9
WN IAD-MDW MAR 6>5 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
WN IND-MDW MAR 4>0 APR 4>0 MAY 4>0
WN IND-RSW APR 1.1>3 MAY 0.3>2
WN IND-TPA APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
WN ISP-PBI MAY 3>2
WN JAX-LAS MAR 1.0>0.7
WN LAS-MAF MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>1.7
WN LAS-MDW MAY 10>9
WN LAS-MKE MAR 4>3 APR 5>3 MAY 5>3
WN LAS-PVD MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
WN LAS-SEA APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
WN LAS-SLC MAR 7>6 APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
WN LAS-SNA MAR 7>8 APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
WN LAX-MCI MAY 1.9>3
WN LAX-MDW MAR 7>5
WN LAX-MKE MAR 1.9>1.0 APR 1.9>1.0 MAY 1.9>1.0
WN LAX-STL MAR 1.7>1.1
WN LAX-TUS MAY 5>4
WN LGA-MDW APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
WN LGA-MKE MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
WN LGA-STL MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2.0
WN LIT-STL MAR 1.8>1.0 APR 1.8>1.0 MAY 1.7>1.0
WN MCI-MSP MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>2
WN MCI-MSY MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN MCI-OAK MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0.5
WN MCO-MBJ APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.7
WN MCO-MKE APR 4>5
WN MCO-ORF MAR 2.0>3
WN MCO-PHL MAR 8>7 APR 8>7 MAY 7>6
WN MCO-PHX MAR 1.6>1.1
WN MCO-ROC MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>1.9 MAY 1.0>1.9
WN MCO-RSW MAR 4>0 APR 4>0 MAY 4>0
WN MCO-SAT MAR 1.7>1.1 APR 2>1.1 MAY 2.0>1.0
WN MCO-SJU MAR 4>3 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
WN MDW-CUN MAR 0>1.9 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
WN MDW-OAK MAR 3>2
WN MDW-OKC MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.9
WN MDW-ORF MAR 1.8>1.0
WN MDW-ROC APR 0>1.1 MAY 0>2
WN MDW-SFO APR 3>2 MAY 3>2
WN MKE-MSP MAY 4>3
WN MKE-PHX MAR 4>3 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
WN MKE-RSW MAR 3>4 APR 1.7>3 MAY 1.1>2
WN MKE-SFO APR 1.7>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
WN MSY-STL MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>1.7
WN MSY-TPA APR 3>4
WN OAK-ONT MAR 8>7 MAY 8>7
WN OAK-RNO MAR 3>2 APR 3>2 MAY 3>1.9
WN OAK-SEA APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
WN OAK-SNA MAR 7>8 APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
WN ORF-TPA APR 1.0>0.5 MAY 1.0>0.1
WN PBI-PIT MAR 0>1.0
WN PBI-PVD MAR 0>1.0
WN PBI-TPA MAR 4>0 APR 4>0 MAY 4>0
WN PDX-RNO MAY 3>2.0
WN PDX-SLC MAY 3>2.0
WN PHL-RDU MAR 3>0.5 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0
WN PHX-RDU MAR 1.0>0.7
WN PHX-SMF MAR 6>5 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
WN PHX-SNA MAR 8>7 APR 8>7 MAY 8>7
WN PHX-TUL APR 2>1.4 MAY 2.0>1.0
WN PIT-RSW MAR 1.8>3
WN PIT-TPA APR 3>4 MAY 2.0>3
WN PVD-RSW APR 0.7>0.5
WN RNO-SLC MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
WN ROC-TPA MAR 1.0>1.7
WN RSW-STL MAR 1.0>3 APR 1.1>1.9 MAY 1.0>1.8
WN SAN-STL MAR 1.0>0.1 MAY 0>1.0
WN SAT-CUN MAR 0>0.5 APR 0>0.4 MAY 0.2>0.4
WN SAT-MEX MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0.3>1.0
WN SAT-STL MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.8
WN SEA-SLC MAY 3>2
WN SFO-SNA MAR 6>7 APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
WN SJC-SNA MAY 8>9
WN SJU-TPA MAR 1.9>1.0 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
WN SMF-SNA MAR 6>7 APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
WN SNA-MEX MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN SNA-SJD MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WN TPA-SJU MAR 1.9>1.0 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: usairways85
Posted 2012-10-30 07:34:46 and read 8915 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA LAX-EWR MAR 7>6

Really?? During the supposed slower fall period I've seen F sold out on almost all flights 3-5 days in advance and not many more economy seats available. Unless they expect to put widebodies on the route.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-10-30 07:37:46 and read 8885 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LA SFO-LIM FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.1 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0

What's going on here? This always seems to be misfiled; I imagine it's staying the same as per usual

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 07:38:16 and read 8861 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 2):
Really?? During the supposed slower fall period I've seen F sold out on almost all flights 3-5 days in advance and not many more economy seats available. Unless they expect to put widebodies on the route.

Still 737s and 757s.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-10-30 07:40:15 and read 8840 times.

Surprised the new AA flights didnt apear.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: SCL767
Posted 2012-10-30 07:42:54 and read 8823 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LA LAX-LIM APR 1.8>1.0 MAY 1.9>1.0
LA SFO-LIM FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.1 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0

LAN operates LIM-LAX 13x weekly and LIM-SFO 4x weekly; no changes expected!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-30 08:20:00 and read 8584 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US CLT-SEA APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHL-SEA MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4

Has either of these routes been 4x daily before during summer peak season? Looks like PHL is 4x A321 and CLT is 2x A321 / 2x A320. Altogether this must be a reasonably large capacity increase out of SEA for US as measured by both flights and seats this summer.

[Edited 2012-10-30 08:20:52]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: FlyPeoria
Posted 2012-10-30 09:06:27 and read 8352 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN DAY-TPA MAY 0.1>1.0

Could this mean Dayton-Tampa is going daily year-round as Southwest de-hubs Atlanta?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 09:18:22 and read 8279 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
What's going on here? This always seems to be misfiled; I imagine it's staying the same as per usual

Take a week to know...or look at their website.

Quoting FlyPeoria (Reply 8):
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN DAY-TPA MAY 0.1>1.0

I wouldn't get my hopes up for SEP/OCT, but otherwise looks good.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 7):
Has either of these routes been 4x daily before during summer peak season?

I thought the same thing, but if I point that out somebody always says : "been that way for years, normal". Seems like a lot, though, for SEA.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: FlyPIJets
Posted 2012-10-30 10:02:43 and read 8077 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN PHL-RDU MAR 3>0.5 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0

Really!?!

Looks like a number of WN flights are leaving PHL. Are theses seasonal? Permanent?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WN ATL-PHL MAY 5>4
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN HOU-PHL APR 1.0>0.4 MAY 1.0>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN MCO-PHL MAR 8>7 APR 8>7 MAY 7>6

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-10-30 10:04:16 and read 8059 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*G3 MCO-SDQ DEC 0>0.5 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0

MIASDQ, too. Both start 15 December 2012. GIG-SDQ-MIA and GRU-SDQ-MCO.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 10:44:58 and read 7876 times.

Quoting FlyPIJets (Reply 10):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WN ATL-PHL MAY 5>4
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN HOU-PHL APR 1.0>0.4 MAY 1.0>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN MCO-PHL MAR 8>7 APR 8>7 MAY 7>6

Nope, they have gotten crushed in PHL. Makes you worry about ATL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-10-30 10:54:39 and read 7826 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**BA EWR-ORY DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.8 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8
**BA JFK-ORY APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

This is the Openskies flight.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL JFK-VLC MAY 0.3>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0

And Spain's debt crisis bites another route off.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**DL MEM-AMS MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.5>0 JUL 0.6>0

Ohohoho! This is a shocker. I wonder how their euro traffic will be handled now. Looks like they'll have to one-hop it to ATL. Sad to see MEM like this but this is deja vu. DL tried a hub previously with MEM and now bye-bye.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: usairways85
Posted 2012-10-30 10:56:01 and read 7826 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):

Nope, they have gotten crushed in PHL. Makes you worry about ATL.

And this one...

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN PHL-RDU MAR 3>0.5 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0

WN at PHL has to be down to around 20 flts a day from a peak of 65.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-10-30 10:58:08 and read 7806 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
I wonder how their euro traffic will be handled now.

M90 to ATL, as always 
Quoting enilria (Reply 12):

Nope, they have gotten crushed in PHL. Makes you worry about ATL.

   PHL and PIT. Whoda thunk US would send WN packing? If only they could recreate that in PHX.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: seatback
Posted 2012-10-30 11:12:46 and read 7728 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Nope, they have gotten crushed in PHL. Makes you worry about ATL.

I think we're seeing the emergence of a new Southwest. Based on last quarter's lack-luster results, I don't think we'll see the aggressive WN as we once did.

Probably worth it's own thread but I think we're going to see WN's tolerance level sharply decrease in the future.

If ATL and PHL are being cut back, makes you wonder how DEN could ever be successful/profitable.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-10-30 11:25:56 and read 7656 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):WN PHL-RDU MAR 3>0.5 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0
WN at PHL has to be down to around 20 flts a day from a peak of 65.

It's nuts how much PHL has been cut back. All that is left in May is the large WN stations and a few Florida flights. Exactly 20 daily (weekdays) on WN equipment plus 12 daily on FL equipment:

7x MDW
6x MCO (2x WN 4x FL)
4x ATL (FL)
3x DEN
2x BNA
2x STL
1x PHX
1x TPA
3x FLL (1x WN 2x FL)
1x LAS
1x PBI (FL)
1x RSW (FL)

So what all has been cut non-stop out of PHL now on Southwest? I might be missing some but I think these are most of them:

PIT
BOS
MHT
PVD
RDU
HOU
CMH
LAX
OAK
JAX
AUS
SAT

[Edited 2012-10-30 11:29:41]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-10-30 11:41:02 and read 7570 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LR MIA-MGA DEC 0.1>0.2

The AVTA non-hubcuts in USA-Central America continue

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US CLT-BZE JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
US CLT-CZM JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3

As these 2 destinations "shared" an aircraft...the weakness in one.....hurt the business case for keeping the levels on the other

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: usairways85
Posted 2012-10-30 11:43:29 and read 7562 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 17):
PIT
BOS
MHT
PVD
RDU
HOU
CMH
LAX
OAK
JAX
AUS
SAT
BDL
MSY (?)

...I think WN basically raised the white flag after the Northeast/New England cuts. It was these routes that saw huge O&D increases when WN came in with lower fares but in the end I guess US had continued to beat them to the point that it wasn't worth it anymore.

[Edited 2012-10-30 11:54:29]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 12:23:53 and read 7409 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**BA EWR-ORY DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.8 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8
**BA JFK-ORY APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

This is the Openskies flight.

What was the old code?

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
Ohohoho! This is a shocker. I wonder how their euro traffic will be handled now. Looks like they'll have to one-hop it to ATL. Sad to see MEM like this but this is deja vu. DL tried a hub previously with MEM and now bye-bye.

Alas, poor Memphis...

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
WN at PHL has to be down to around 20 flts a day from a peak of 65.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
PHL and PIT. Whoda thunk US would send WN packing? If only they could recreate that in PHX.
Quoting seatback (Reply 16):
I think we're seeing the emergence of a new Southwest. Based on last quarter's lack-luster results, I don't think we'll see the aggressive WN as we once did.
Quoting seatback (Reply 16):
If ATL and PHL are being cut back, makes you wonder how DEN could ever be successful/profitable.

I think DEN lost a boatload, but now it has gotten to a point of market control where it is profitable or close to it. DL is much strong in ATL than US in PHL or UA/F9 in DEN. I'm beginning to think WN may get crushed in ATL. We'll see. Worst merger ever...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-10-30 12:30:39 and read 7376 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 20):
Worst merger ever...

I'd vote for US and PSA. Or maybe QQ and AA.

Name a good merger?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-10-30 12:39:36 and read 7325 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 18):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LR MIA-MGA DEC 0.1>0.2

The AVTA non-hubcuts in USA-Central America continue

Huh? That's an increase, and it's just a switching around of TA* and LR* equipment. No cuts on MIAMGA.

And, quite simply, given the astronomical fares TACA commands on these routes to Miami, Los Angeles and elsewhere, they aren't going to be cut. SAL is actually the dump yield station for U.S. flights. It's MGA and SAP that rake in the money.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-10-30 13:12:13 and read 7216 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
PHL and PIT. Whoda thunk US would send WN packing? If only they could recreate that in PHX.

The markets in PIT and PHL are used to high ticket prices so they never really learned to appreciate lower fares. PHX is probably a lot more price-sensitive  
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 21):
Name a good merger?

US and HP worked out pretty well considering the state of the two pre-merger.
DL and NW also seems to have worked out well for the airline. Fate of MEM notwithstanding.
Jury is still out on UA and CO. After the kinks get worked out, that is an airline with an incredibly strong structure. All statements that it's a "failed merger" are quite premature.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-10-30 13:20:59 and read 7176 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 21):
I'd vote for US and PSA. Or maybe QQ and AA.

It's worse because there are so many fewer airlines now. We can afford to have one demolished much less than in those days when there were a dozen.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-10-30 13:23:51 and read 7318 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 22):
Huh? That's an increase, and it's just a switching around of TA* and LR* equipment. No cuts on MIAMGA.

My mistake, I read it as 1.0 (instead of 0.1) > 0.2

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PITrules
Posted 2012-10-30 13:38:40 and read 7306 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 23):

The markets in PIT and PHL are used to high ticket prices so they never really learned to appreciate lower fares.

I think they appreciate low ticket prices, they just don't appreciate (or understand) who it is that brought them low ticket prices.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-10-30 14:42:58 and read 7145 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 20):
What was the old code?

openskies is a BA airline and operates under their certificate so I'm guessing the code would be BA

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: EricR
Posted 2012-10-30 14:43:52 and read 7169 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 23):
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
PHL and PIT. Whoda thunk US would send WN packing? If only they could recreate that in PHX.

The markets in PIT and PHL are used to high ticket prices so they never really learned to appreciate lower fares. PHX is probably a lot more price-sensitive



Interestingly enough, over the past several years, WN has decreased flying out of PHX. In 2006, WN had 207 daily flights out of PHX. Today WN is down to 173 daily flights and they appear to be trimming frequencies and/or routes slowly as time goes by.

The draw down is not all that surprising considering WN's buildup of DEN combined with low fare battles with US at PHX.

http://swamedia.com/channels/Corpora...t-Sheet/pages/corporate-fact-sheet

[quote=enilria,reply=0]
WN ATL-PHX APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>2
WN BHM-PHX MAR 0.7>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
WN CMH-PHX MAR 1.7>1.0
WN EWR-PHX MAR 2>1.3 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
WN MCO-PHX MAR 1.6>1.1
WN MKE-PHX MAR 4>3 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
WN PHX-RDU MAR 1.0>0.7
WN PHX-SMF MAR 6>5 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
WN PHX-SNA MAR 8>7 APR 8>7 MAY 8>7
WN PHX-TUL APR 2>1.4 MAY 2.0>1.0

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mtnwest1979
Posted 2012-10-30 14:48:41 and read 7124 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 21):
Name a good merger?

Delta-Western.
SkyWest-SunAire
.......................

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-10-30 15:11:24 and read 6986 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 20):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**BA EWR-ORY DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.8 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8
**BA JFK-ORY APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

This is the Openskies flight.

What was the old code?

EC

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: UALFAson
Posted 2012-10-30 15:40:35 and read 6877 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US DCA-MCO APR 7>8

This is what jumped out to me. EIGHT flights a day to a city (DCA) that's technically not even a hub?! That's almost every-other-hourly shuttle service. UA is currently only showing 4 flights a day MCO-IAD.

Wow, that's a lot of kiddos to Mickey and Shamu.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2012-10-30 16:19:26 and read 6687 times.

At only 60-65 flights peak, WN never linked PHL to other markets like CLE, DTW and BUF nonstop and offered less desirable routing to these markets via MDW. This along with not being into transcons. It made more sense to downsize at PHL rather than stay at 60 flights and fly routes like PHL-PIT as a secondary carrier, where VFR pax prefer to drive anyways. WN added a spoke at EWR, and the BWI hub isn't too far as well.

Like PHL-Texas, I wonder if WN will retreat from PHL-Florida market. Either Spirit adds flights or JetBlue and these flights become available on expedia,etc. JetBlue could compete on MCO, FLL. They might not want to compete on BOS against US' hourly shuttle, but it would have been better for JetBlue to announce DFW service rather than Spirit from PHL.

[Edited 2012-10-30 16:20:24]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-30 16:25:07 and read 6634 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL DTW-AVL JAN 0.1>0.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-AVL JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2

Delta ought to be able to make DTW-AVL work. Maybe DL wants to flow all traffic over ATL instead.

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Nope, they have gotten crushed in PHL. Makes you worry about ATL.

Yes it does. When WN took over FL, I was initially happy at the idea of 200-250 WN flights. Now it looks like it will be 90-100 at best and that might be too optimistic as WN may drop BOS, LGA from ATL and flow the traffic over BWI. WN's take over of FL has been one giant disappointment.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2012-10-30 16:43:04 and read 6520 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Delta ought to be able to make DTW-AVL work. Maybe DL wants to flow all traffic over ATL instead.

It's a seasonal reduction. It's back in the spring. With AVL-ATL still at 8x daily in January, with one flight on mainline, there's enough capacity to handle the mid-winter downturn in traffic.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2012-10-30 16:43:07 and read 6531 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Delta ought to be able to make DTW-AVL work. Maybe DL wants to flow all traffic over ATL instead.

For the month of January, yes. DTW-AVL is suspended for Jan-Feb, returns in March, and goes 2-3x daily over the summer months.

AVL is very quiet in the winter months anyways.

(Remember when NW flew MSP-AVL simply because a senior executive had a second home in AVL)

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2012-10-30 17:03:29 and read 6450 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Yes it does. When WN took over FL, I was initially happy at the idea of 200-250 WN flights. Now it looks like it will be 90-100 at best and that might be too optimistic as WN may drop BOS, LGA from ATL and flow the traffic over BWI. WN's take over of FL has been one giant disappointment.

I dont understand the reasoning behind WN's "de-hubbing" of ATL. You would think they would keep what they have with a built in customer base of loyal FL fliers, but I guess not?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: steeler83
Posted 2012-10-30 17:32:29 and read 6311 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
PHL and PIT. Whoda thunk US would send WN packing? If only they could recreate that in PHX.

US didn't exactly send WN "packing" at PIT. They were never that big in PIT to begin with. They did have plans of building a rather sizeable operation, but it was the ACAA that chased them away...

Quoting PITrules (Reply 26):
I think they appreciate low ticket prices, they just don't appreciate (or understand) who it is that brought them low ticket prices.

correct in my opinion...

Besides, WN is launching HOU service in the spring. Granted it's only one daily flight, but still, if there wasn't a reason to start the service they would not have started it. UA increased capacity on the route and now WN is bringing more competition. I guess they're going to just test the waters before they consider adding another frequency. I wonder if they're going with 73g equipment or if they'll consider a 738 considering the mix of 739/757 equipment on there currently...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: jamake1
Posted 2012-10-30 19:27:11 and read 5822 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 21):
Name a good merger?

Delta-Northeast, Delta-Western, Delta-Northwest.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-10-30 19:30:56 and read 5827 times.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 36):

WN's costs are too high to make an ATL hub work or to run the 717 fleet. I wouldn't be surprised to see WN in ATL to be limited to their current markets plus:

TPA
FLL
STL
MCI
DAL 2014
MSY
SAT

and that's it unfortunately.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-10-30 19:54:06 and read 5654 times.

Quoting jamake1 (Reply 38):
Delta-Northwest.

I wouldn't call that a good merger persay, especially in comparison to the other two you posted. There's been serious lapses in C.S. since the merger and quite a few jobs lost at MEM and CVG.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-10-30 21:15:30 and read 5375 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WN ATL-BKG MAR 1.4>0.3 APR 1.8>0 MAY 2>0

I've always been mildly surprised that Southwest isn't keeping ATL-BKG.

If there has been chat about it I've missed it, so - any clues out there?

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: wn676
Posted 2012-10-30 21:33:03 and read 5328 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
I thought the same thing, but if I point that out somebody always says : "been that way for years, normal". Seems like a lot, though, for SEA.

It's a fairly recent change. Last summer PHL operated at 4x daily but CLT was only at 3x I believe. In years prior it was 3x and 2x, respectively.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: panam330
Posted 2012-10-30 21:55:03 and read 5277 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 40):
quite a few jobs lost at MEM and CVG.

They "traded up" to a stronger ATL (with one fewer competing southeastern hub) and DTW, respectively, while shedding the comparative burdens of CVG and MEM, both high-cost regional-heavy hubs. I'd say that's a compelling reason to mark the merger as successful. It's all about saving costs - synergy (read: shrinking) - not keeping jobs (very sadly).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2012-10-30 22:11:53 and read 5252 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
PHL and PIT. Whoda thunk US would send WN packing? If only they could recreate that

US sent WN packing in PIT? US abandoned PIT. November 2012, US averaged 42 departures a day to 9 destinations; that's a far cry from the 500+ daily flights US once operated there. For November 2012, WN/FL averaged 26 daily flights to 10 destinations and that doesn't include the upcoming PBI and HOU flights...

PIT_NonStop_Flights.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.pitairport.com/userfiles/file/pdf/PIT_NonStop_Flights.pdf


In PHL, I think it's a mix of the competition from US as well as WN getting away from the costs associated with the construction, which they alluded to as far back as 2010.

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2...news/doc4d14183d105f6888552838.txt

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-10-31 02:05:37 and read 4963 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US CLT-PDX APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHL-PDX MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

US must be doing pretty poorly here in PDX to only offer token seasonal service to their 2 biggest hubs 1x daily each.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHL-SEA MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US CLT-SEA APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4

On the other hand SEA seems to be able to provide decent passenger loads for US.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-31 02:40:51 and read 4928 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 45):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US CLT-PDX APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHL-PDX MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

US must be doing pretty poorly here in PDX to only offer token seasonal service to their 2 biggest hubs 1x daily each.

Not necessarily. Until a few years ago these routes were not served at all by US Airways; PDX was only connected to the former America West hubs in PHX and LAS. While it would of course have been nice to see these jump to multiple daily frequencies, the fact that both routes have remained suggests that they are doing better than "pretty poorly" on both routes.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: realsim
Posted 2012-10-31 04:48:00 and read 4765 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Surprised the new AA flights didnt apear.

The new flights won't be bookable unitl Nov, 4, so they will probably upload them this Saturday.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
And Spain's debt crisis bites another route off.

Spain doesn't have any debt crisis, at least not yet, because it's public debt is less than many other countries in Europe, including the big ones. Spain has a budget deficit problem, and a big big unemployment problem.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2012-10-31 04:50:42 and read 4765 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
I've always been mildly surprised that Southwest isn't keeping ATL-BKG.

If there has been chat about it I've missed it, so - any clues out there?

Purely speculation on my part, but I would bet that BKG will primarily see flights to and from the key feeder markets to Branson. Texas and the Midwest (especially Chicago) are significant for Branson and also offer connecting options, whereas ATL and the southeast are not nearly so important. (MCO will obviously continue to be the exception because of its own draw as a destination.) Given that BKG is a private airport, I'm sure they have quite a bit of influence upon destination selection.

Of course, this is all irrespective of any bigger picture WN strategic planning for ATL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-10-31 11:40:14 and read 4211 times.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 48):
Purely speculation on my part, but I would bet that BKG will primarily see flights to and from the key feeder markets to Branson.

I guess.

My puzzle is that - whatever Branson thinks - ATL is only one of two routes from BKG (along with DEN) which, at least according to raw figures, have done well.

Whatever their dreams for the middle of the country, all the several other routes have struggled and have not, ultimately, survived. There may be other factors for this - the routes may never have survived with an RJ - but that doesn't apply to Sun Country's MSP-BKG or DFW-BKG.

So I'm puzzled and perhaps their are strategic issues with ATL. I dunno.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-10-31 12:13:27 and read 4151 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 44):
US sent WN packing in PIT? US abandoned PIT. November 2012, US averaged 42 departures a day to 9 destinations; that's a far cry from the 500+ daily flights US once operated there. For November 2012, WN/FL averaged 26 daily flights to 10 destinations and that doesn't include the upcoming PBI and HOU flights...

On the PIT-PHL route in particular, US certainly sent WN packing. Of course, that may well be more due to the pressure US was putting on WN in PHL and had nothing to do with PIT.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 45):
US must be doing pretty poorly here in PDX to only offer token seasonal service to their 2 biggest hubs 1x daily each.

US has pretty good load factors in PDX, but the stage length to PHL and CLT is such that those routes have suffered at the expense of shorter routes that US can charge just as much for. When I worked at PDX I can remember the CLT and PHL flights having annoyingly heavy loads even as evening turns. US just doesn't have enough planes to go around.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 46):
Not necessarily. Until a few years ago these routes were not served at all by US Airways; PDX was only connected to the former America West hubs in PHX and LAS. While it would of course have been nice to see these jump to multiple daily frequencies, the fact that both routes have remained suggests that they are doing better than "pretty poorly" on both routes.

I don't remember which started first, but the inaugural PDX-CLT flight was sometime in 2006. Now that LAS is out of the picture, PDX sadly is mostly linked to PHX plus the seasonal east coast flights. Would be nice to see the slack picked up so a connection to the east coast doesn't include a 2.5 hour flight south first.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: RWA380
Posted 2012-10-31 23:33:00 and read 3816 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 46):
Not necessarily. Until a few years ago these routes were not served at all by US Airways; PDX was only connected to the former America West hubs in PHX and LAS. While it would of course have been nice to see these jump to multiple daily frequencies, the fact that both routes have remained suggests that they are doing better than "pretty poorly" on both routes.

The CLT service has been going seasonally for several years now, and the PHL flight since they pulled down PIT. I remember flying from SEA a couple times from SEA, and the loads back then were packed full on a 733, even on the red eyes. PDX just has never been a real big market for US, it's obvious US agrees, since they give PDX 25% of the service it provides SEA. The yields and passenger loads may be good, but the flight schedule tells the story, PDX ain't it for US.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-10-31 23:56:23 and read 3810 times.

Quoting seatback (Reply 16):
Probably worth it's own thread but I think we're going to see WN's tolerance level sharply decrease in the future.

When they cut back in DEN, I'll agree. I think, more than anything else, the changes in WN's network are related to putting so many eggs in this basket. They could very well have been more profitable in PHL than they are in DEN today.

Quoting enilria (Reply 20):
I think DEN lost a boatload, but now it has gotten to a point of market control where it is profitable or close to it. DL is much strong in ATL than US in PHL or UA/F9 in DEN. I'm beginning to think WN may get crushed in ATL. We'll see. Worst merger ever...

At worst, WN-FL will go down as AA-TW or AA-QQ, but I highly doubt it.

That said, I'm interested in why you think (1) DEN is now profitable, and (2) that WN will be "crushed" in ATL? (I'm interested because I think about it a lot and I haven't gotten my head around why the dynamics could be so different, other than a strong competitor in ATL.)

What changed with DEN to make it profitable, and what isn't going right in ATL (other than delayed integration)? I understand the imperative to decrease the connecting percentage from 65% to 35%, but why do you think WN has been able to be "profitable or close to it" in DEN with more competition (not to mention starting from nothing) and they won't be able to pull it off in ATL? WN started service in DEN 6 years ago. It's not even 1 year into service in ATL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-01 00:07:44 and read 3801 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 32):
At only 60-65 flights peak,

Only 60-65?! WN alone enplaned more passengers in PHL than all airlines enplaned in OMA, PVD, RNO, and OKC at its peak!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2012-11-01 05:51:01 and read 3699 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 51):
The CLT service has been going seasonally for several years now, and the PHL flight since they pulled down PIT. I remember flying from SEA a couple times from SEA, and the loads back then were packed full on a 733, even on the red eyes. PDX just has never been a real big market for US, it's obvious US agrees, since they give PDX 25% of the service it provides SEA. The yields and passenger loads may be good, but the flight schedule tells the story, PDX ain't it for US.

DL, which is larger in PDX, does not fly DTW-PDX year-round. Remember when there was the huge a.net uproar a few years ago when AA dropped ORD-PDX for the winter?

It is not something specific to US, but all of the airlines apparently see the seasonal drop in traffic/yields and adjust accordingly. The track-record for flights from the Midwest & East Coast hubs except for NYC to PDX in the winter is not strong.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 52):

When they cut back in DEN, I'll agree. I think, more than anything else, the changes in WN's network are related to putting so many eggs in this basket. They could very well have been more profitable in PHL than they are in DEN today.
Quoting Flytravel (Reply 32):
At only 60-65 flights peak, WN never linked PHL to other markets like CLE, DTW and BUF nonstop and offered less desirable routing to these markets via MDW. This along with not being into transcons. It made more sense to downsize at PHL rather than stay at 60 flights and fly routes like PHL-PIT as a secondary carrier, where VFR pax prefer to drive anyways. WN added a spoke at EWR, and the BWI hub isn't too far as well.

I remember the grandiose plans for PHL. However in my opinion, I think it simply was going to be redundant with BWI and challenging to not steal/leak from each other. Heck, whenever I need to be in Southeastern PA I usually fly to BWI. If WN were going to make PHL much larger, they would need to start flowing connecting traffic over some routes. Could markets like DTW, CLE, BUF support both multiple BWI and multiple PHL flights per day on WN?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-01 07:56:51 and read 3544 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Quoting enilria (Reply 20):
What was the old code?
openskies is a BA airline and operates under their certificate so I'm guessing the code would be BA
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 30):
This is the Openskies flight.
What was the old code?
EC

Why the code change? Leveraging the BA brand?

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Nope, they have gotten crushed in PHL. Makes you worry about ATL.

Yes it does. When WN took over FL, I was initially happy at the idea of 200-250 WN flights. Now it looks like it will be 90-100 at best and that might be too optimistic as WN may drop BOS, LGA from ATL and flow the traffic over BWI. WN's take over of FL has been one giant disappointment.
Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 36):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
I dont understand the reasoning behind WN's "de-hubbing" of ATL. You would think they would keep what they have with a built in customer base of loyal FL fliers, but I guess not?

I always said this was going to be an awful merger. The biggest reason is simple math. Let's look at RIC-ATL.

384 passengers per day of traffic pre-WN. The market is already "stimulated" with very low fares and is unlikely to grow any more than it already has. FL is only getting $99.
Flights: DL 7 FL 4
Fare: DL $209 FL $99
Traffic per day each way: DL 227 FL 143
Local Passengers per/Departure: DL 33 FL 36
DL Flight Share: 64%
DL Traffic Share: 61%
DL Revenue Share: 77%

WN is very unlikely to grow their traffic share at all because they will be more concentrated on raising FL's abyssmal local fare, but let's look at the numbers.

WN's smallest airplane is 137 seats. That means local traffic using AirTran's existing traffic would only fill 26% of seats. WN's average is about 60% which is how they manage to keep fares lower than the legacies with higher labor costs, etc. Local passengers are much more valuable.

At best, I'd guess they will be able to increase their locals per departure by 50%, which would still leave them only 39% full. Without a hub I don't see them being able to get another ~50 through passengers in ATL...and all that ignores the fact that the fare is another big problem. It is very likely that raising FL's low fares will shrink the market rather than grow it.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 48):
Purely speculation on my part, but I would bet that BKG will primarily see flights to and from the key feeder markets to Branson.
Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WN ATL-BKG MAR 1.4>0.3 APR 1.8>0 MAY 2>0

I've always been mildly surprised that Southwest isn't keeping ATL-BKG.

If there has been chat about it I've missed it, so - any clues out there?
mariner

All the cities being cutover now don't get ATL service because of the lack of code share. I'd assume that the FL flights that were running to BWI/HOU/MDW were incredibly awful judging from T100, so they bit the bullet and killed ATL in order to avoid those other losses by allowing the other to finally connect.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
My puzzle is that - whatever Branson thinks - ATL is only one of two routes from BKG (along with DEN) which, at least according to raw figures, have done well.

They could regret this, but MDW will probably be fine...I think...

Quoting neveragain (Reply 52):

At worst, WN-FL will go down as AA-TW or AA-QQ, but I highly doubt it.

That said, I'm interested in why you think (1) DEN is now profitable, and (2) that WN will be "crushed" in ATL? (I'm interested because I think about it a lot and I haven't gotten my head around why the dynamics could be so different, other than a strong competitor in ATL.)

I think for the consumer this is the worst merger ever because it eliminated one of so few remaining options. Also, because WN is gutting the network, but that's my second reason.

Wall Street and insiders tell me DEN has turned the corner. As for ATL, see above. The problem is basically that DL is so big and the market is so heavily connecting that I don't believe another player can exist there without flying to or from a hub to aggregate traffic. It's more similar to PHL than DEN. DEN was splintered and UA was weak. DL has always been strong in ATL. FL never did very well, but it kept the planes full with discounting and flowing Florida traffic South. I don't think there is another formula that will work there other than flying to hubs like HOU/MDW/etc.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 52):
What changed with DEN to make it profitable, and what isn't going right in ATL (other than delayed integration)?
Quoting neveragain (Reply 52):
I understand the imperative to decrease the connecting percentage from 65% to 35%, but why do you think WN has been able to be "profitable or close to it" in DEN with more competition (not to mention starting from nothing) and they won't be able to pull it off in ATL? WN started service in DEN 6 years ago. It's not even 1 year into service in ATL.

WN originally did very poorly selling the DEN local passenger and their traffic was only coming in from outstations. That meant their % local was low and they were forced to carry a lot of prorate connects to keep things full. As they blanketed DEN with routes, F9's loyalty (and UA's loyalty) among local DEN customers weakened and WN started doing well with local traffic. According to DOT, WN now carries more DEN originating traffic than UA or F9, and the average fare is higher than F9.

DEN originating 1Q2012 Domestic DB1B
UA 6062 @$376rt
F9 5018 @$260rt
WN 6336 @$264rt

In essence, DEN local passengers are now more loyal to WN than F9 or UA. That's a huge change. Does anybody expect that in ATL? I don't because:
1) DL is much stronger than UA was
2) DL is much bigger in every way than UA was
3) The market in ATL is much more connecting dependent than DEN was
4) F9 did not follow the "always the low price philosophy" and was often expensive leaving an opening for WN.
5) FL was always cheap either by choice or because DL always had their back to the wall.
6) Momentum: WN was growing in DEN; FL/WN is going backwards in ATL
7) The bag fee dynamic was positive in DEN. WN was the only carrier not charging bag fees on base fares.
8) WN is already raising fares in former FL markets to absorb FL's lost bag fee revenue. That's seen as negative in terms of consumers looking at fares.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-11-01 08:02:19 and read 3524 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
and the average fare is higher than F9.

How do WN's costs compare to F9?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-01 09:25:11 and read 3448 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
and the average fare is higher than F9.

How do WN's costs compare to F9?

Hard to compare that, but F9's are lower in most areas.

I think what you are missing (if I understand your point) is that WN is now beating F9 on average fare for DEN originating passengers. WN is beating F9 by a lot on passengers originating outside DEN and WN beats F9 by just as much on passengers connecting through DEN.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-11-01 09:45:11 and read 3413 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 57):
I think what you are missing (if I understand your point) is that WN is now beating F9 on average fare for DEN originating passengers. WN is beating F9 by a lot on passengers originating outside DEN and WN beats F9 by just as much on passengers connecting through DEN.

I've been using F9's performance as a proxy for WN's performance at DEN. As goes F9, so goes WN, if not worse, since WN's fares and LF are just barely higher than F9, but I think F9's margin on costs is larger than WN's margin on fare/LF. I could be wrong though...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2012-11-01 09:50:27 and read 3405 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
At best, I'd guess they will be able to increase their locals per departure by 50%, which would still leave them only 39% full. Without a hub I don't see them being able to get another ~50 through passengers in ATL...and all that ignores the fact that the fare is another big problem. It is very likely that raising FL's low fares will shrink the market rather than grow it.

But if this is all true, why did WN launch routes like ORF-ATL and SDF-ATL? These markets are a bit bigger than RIC, but not by much.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
I don't think there is another formula that will work there other than flying to hubs like HOU/MDW/etc.

Again, why then has WN launched routes like AUS, SDF and ORF to ATL? None of these are hubs for WN.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-01 12:02:55 and read 3274 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
Wall Street and insiders tell me DEN has turned the corner. As for ATL, see above. The problem is basically that DL is so big and the market is so heavily connecting that I don't believe another player can exist there without flying to or from a hub to aggregate traffic. It's more similar to PHL than DEN. DEN was splintered and UA was weak. DL has always been strong in ATL. FL never did very well, but it kept the planes full with discounting and flowing Florida traffic South. I don't think there is another formula that will work there other than flying to hubs like HOU/MDW/etc.
Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
WN originally did very poorly selling the DEN local passenger and their traffic was only coming in from outstations. That meant their % local was low and they were forced to carry a lot of prorate connects to keep things full. As they blanketed DEN with routes, F9's loyalty (and UA's loyalty) among local DEN customers weakened and WN started doing well with local traffic. According to DOT, WN now carries more DEN originating traffic than UA or F9, and the average fare is higher than F9.

Thank you for your detailed explanation.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-01 12:25:18 and read 3236 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
All the cities being cutover now don't get ATL service because of the lack of code share. I'd assume that the FL flights that were running to BWI/HOU/MDW were incredibly awful judging from T100, so they bit the bullet and killed ATL in order to avoid those other losses by allowing the other to finally connect.

Thanks for the try, but I'm still scratching my head. I thought (?) the code share was to happen next spring, at about the time ATL-BKG goes away.

It just seems odd to me to drop a route that has done well and is insulated form loss, but I don't follow Southwest particularly.

Does this imply that, for example, ICT-ATL may be dropped in favour of ICYT-MDW/HOU/DEN?

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-01 13:13:42 and read 3148 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 58):
ince WN's fares and LF are just barely higher than F9,

In DEN they are barely higher, they are 20% higher on connections through Denver and outstation originating passengers. That's very significant. Also, F9 has benefited from regional connecting feed like a legacy and the spigot of higher yield feed is in the process of ended.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 59):
But if this is all true, why did WN launch routes like ORF-ATL and SDF-ATL?

If you ask one of their planners they will unabashedly tell you that they expected the code share to allow them to connect to the Air Tran hub network. I think they expected that would at least get them off the ground and then when the hub was gone they'd figure out if they were still viable. I think when T100 comes out for those routes we will see some shockingly bad #s.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 59):
Again, why then has WN launched routes like AUS, SDF and ORF to ATL? None of these are hubs for WN.

AUS is probably a little bit different just because WN has a lot of market strength there and they are desperate for better yield Southbound spokes, but ORF/SDF won't work unless they change directions and revert to running a Florida-centric connecting hub like FL. WN has stated they don't feel it is economical to connect passengers going to Florida (low-yield) and they fly non-stop instead. That's not 100% true in their network, BWI does some flow to Florida, but Chicago and Houston do little and they follow the same philosophy on LAS. There is merit in that position, but it obviates a functional plan for Atlanta.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 60):
Thank you for your detailed explanation.

No problem

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
Thanks for the try, but I'm still scratching my head. I thought (?) the code share was to happen next spring, at about the time ATL-BKG goes away.

They got burned before so they are not launching any more routes that depend upon the code share, so if it is delayed again they will be less impacted. The next schedule change will be very interesting. If there are no more WN branded spokes from ATL in that load, then we know their confidence of a 1H2013 code share is very low.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
It just seems odd to me to drop a route that has done well and is insulated form loss, but I don't follow Southwest particularly.

Look at it from Branson's perspective, they wanted HOU/MDW/BWI so much that they paid FL to fly those thinking the code share might be running. It wasn't and they lost a boatload of money. ATL is probably off subsidy, so they are probably managing their pocketbook by demanding something to be done to stop the losses on HOU/MDW/BWI which they are covering. The solution was to convert to all WN and the effect was to lose ATL. Apart from all of that, while I agree ATL was making money, this is a symptom of the whole problem with this merger. They are dropping the route not because FL didn't make money, but because the route is heavily connecting and WN doesn't want routes that are heavily connecting. That's why I question the whole plan for ATL. They think they can just convert a route and double the local market, while raising the fare from FL's low levels??? Not going to happen. I don't think there is much difference between the Air Tran effect and the Southwest effect.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
Does this imply that, for example, ICT-ATL may be dropped in favour of ICYT-MDW/HOU/DEN?

Yes, I hear ICT-ATL is dead. Not 100%, but that's what I hear. The path they are going down is this:

ATL
1) Nothing shorter than 250 miles (too connecting dependent)
2) No markets with under 1 million people (too connecting dependent)
3) Long-hauls to strong WN markets (LAX/DEN/PHX/LAS/etc.)
4) Major destinations (BOS/NYC/PHL/etc)
5) WN "Hubs"
6) Some (less than now) Caribbean
7) The wildcard is really "how much Florida?" If they go down to 4-6 flights to MCO/TPA/FLL/PBI I think the whole operation will be around 80-90 departures because it directly impacts what they can fly in category #1/2.

As I've said before the outcome of this is exactly the same as if Delta had bought Air Tran and been forced to give a dozen gates in ATL to WN. This is going to end up looking just like that had happened, except WN would be a hero in that scenario.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: airliner371
Posted 2012-11-01 13:20:07 and read 3120 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
at about the time ATL-BKG goes away

They have to be able to begin selling the flights with the codeshare. If SWA were to put BKG-ATL for sale they have to go months without a codeshare, that would not work today.

Quoting enilria (Reply 62):
If there are no more WN branded spokes from ATL in that load, then we know their confidence of a 1H2013 code share is very low.

No, because you need that codeshare so until the actual codeshare is in place you probably won't see spokes because they probably want the codeshare during the entire booking period.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-01 13:26:05 and read 3115 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 62):
Also, F9 has benefited from regional connecting feed like a legacy and the spigot of higher yield feed is in the process of ended.

Based on the Q2 and Q3 profit numbers, obviously to Frontier's advantage.

Quoting enilria (Reply 62):
Look at it from Branson's perspective, they wanted HOU/MDW/BWI so much that they paid FL to fly those thinking the code share might be running. It wasn't and they lost a boatload of money. ATL is probably off subsidy, so they are probably managing their pocketbook by demanding something to be done to stop the losses on HOU/MDW/BWI which they are covering. The solution was to convert to all WN and the effect was to lose ATL.

Well I think it is weird, but I've probably flogged this horse as far as it will go.

I suppose the question for BKG is whether they keep ATL in their pocket hoping Southwest will change its mind or throw it open to someone else.

And no, I don't mean to Frontier.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: steeler83
Posted 2012-11-01 13:36:41 and read 3108 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 50):
Quoting usflyguy (Reply 44):US sent WN packing in PIT? US abandoned PIT. November 2012, US averaged 42 departures a day to 9 destinations; that's a far cry from the 500+ daily flights US once operated there. For November 2012, WN/FL averaged 26 daily flights to 10 destinations and that doesn't include the upcoming PBI and HOU flights...
On the PIT-PHL route in particular, US certainly sent WN packing. Of course, that may well be more due to the pressure US was putting on WN in PHL and had nothing to do with PIT.

That's true. Plus, it doesn't help any that many PIT travelers still labor under the delusion that US still operates a hub out of there... If they have a hub there, then there must be homing devices on their planes, and I guess those walls down the A and B concourses at PIT must be illusions...

Oh, and I didn't mention the abandoned/partially dismantled E concourse...

I do wish PIT fliers in general would wake up and smell the coffee that US is no longer the dominant airline anymore...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-11-01 13:58:23 and read 3061 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
Why the code change? Leveraging the BA brand?

IM guessing it was something along the lines of bureaucracy

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2012-11-02 14:33:07 and read 2660 times.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 54):
Could markets like DTW, CLE, BUF support both multiple BWI and multiple PHL flights per day on WN?

I think WN didn't have DTW and CLE, not because of BWI's service by them to those markets, but to avoid a three carrier competition at PHL on PHL-DTW or PHL-CLE. The short-haul markets where WN competed at PHL, it was just up against US.

That kind of leads me to think that PHL-ATL is somewhat a wildcard in that WN isn't thrilled to join two legacies competing on a route, but I think there's a 60% chance WN competes with US and DL, with 3x daily where WN will partially be relying on connections as well to Texas, the Southeast and the N. Florida cities. If VX ceases, it's good for WN at PHL and it's connection itineraries to the west coast as well.

Quoting enilria (Reply 62):
7) The wildcard is really "how much Florida?" If they go down to 4-6 flights to MCO/TPA/FLL/PBI I think the whole operation will be around 80-90 departures because it directly impacts what they can fly in category #1/2.

I think WN will fly ATL-JAX too. Since WN chose to compete on ATL-SDF and ATL-ORF with DL, I think other short haul (between 250 and 500 mile routes to not so major markets but over 1M in population) have a chance of conversion: JAX, MEM, RDU and RIC. Also, CMH and DAY fall in this range under 500 mile range as well, though are in a different geographic area, and might not need ATL for connections. WN might switch DAY for CVG in general, or should if possible. As for PNS, if it loses ATL, maybe it just gets 2x to MCO/1x TPA.

ATL-ORF is actually over 500 miles, but I assume it was added, and added so quickly as a makeup for the loss of the entire PHF service from FL. RSW and PBI are of longer distance over 500 and maybe falls more in the wildcard bucket.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2012-11-02 14:52:29 and read 2608 times.

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 29):
Delta-Western.
SkyWest-SunAire

DAL-NWA

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 40):
I wouldn't call that a good merger persay, especially in comparison to the other two you posted. There's been serious lapses in C.S. since the merger and quite a few jobs lost at MEM and CVG.

Name a few of the lapses.

And what mergers can you thin k of that didn;t involve some sort of job loses? Or shrinkage of one of the "smaller" hubs.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 67):
ATL-ORF is actually over 500 miles, but I assume it was added, and added so quickly as a makeup for the loss of the entire PHF service from FL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: Kcrwflyer
Posted 2012-11-02 15:22:36 and read 2567 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 20):
Worst merger ever...

I don't know if its the worst, but its pretty bad.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 39):
WN's costs are too high to make an ATL hub work or to run the 717 fleet. I wouldn't be surprised to see WN in ATL to be limited to their current markets plus:

TPA
FLL
STL
MCI
DAL 2014
MSY
SAT

and that's it unfortunately.

I'd agree with that, and the part about the 717 is especially unfortunate.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
I always said this was going to be an awful merger. The biggest reason is simple math. Let's look at RIC-ATL.

384 passengers per day of traffic pre-WN. The market is already "stimulated" with very low fares and is unlikely to grow any more than it already has. FL is only getting $99.
Flights: DL 7 FL 4
Fare: DL $209 FL $99
Traffic per day each way: DL 227 FL 143
Local Passengers per/Departure: DL 33 FL 36
DL Flight Share: 64%
DL Traffic Share: 61%
DL Revenue Share: 77%

WN is very unlikely to grow their traffic share at all because they will be more concentrated on raising FL's abyssmal local fare, but let's look at the numbers.

WN's smallest airplane is 137 seats. That means local traffic using AirTran's existing traffic would only fill 26% of seats. WN's average is about 60% which is how they manage to keep fares lower than the legacies with higher labor costs, etc. Local passengers are much more valuable.

At best, I'd guess they will be able to increase their locals per departure by 50%, which would still leave them only 39% full. Without a hub I don't see them being able to get another ~50 through passengers in ATL...and all that ignores the fact that the fare is another big problem. It is very likely that raising FL's low fares will shrink the market rather than grow it.

All good points, and the reason that many cities will probably lose ATL service as all of this pans out.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
Does this imply that, for example, ICT-ATL may be dropped in favour of ICYT-MDW/HOU/DEN?

Yes. I realize it was a typo, but I'm strongly considering referring to ICT as " icy-T " from now on.

Quoting enilria (Reply 62):
As I've said before the outcome of this is exactly the same as if Delta had bought Air Tran and been forced to give a dozen gates in ATL to WN. This is going to end up looking just like that had happened, except WN would be a hero in that scenario.

Speaking of Delta, how great is this merger for them! I'm surprised they're not spending money on research and development for WN to get all of those low fare AirTran flights gone for good.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 67):
ATL-ORF is actually over 500 miles, but I assume it was added, and added so quickly as a makeup for the loss of the entire PHF service from FL.

Assuming that ANYONE in WN planning has EVER gone through the tunnel between PHF and ORF, they aren't expecting any passengers from the peninsula at ORF.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 11/2/2012: DL/UA/US/WN
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-11-03 11:47:48 and read 2133 times.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 68):
Name a few of the lapses.

Lets see...serious sacrifices to the benefits of skymiles members, especially medallion members,
The degradation of the quality of the flight attendants, (but of course there's some very good cases of nice flight attendants)
the availability of flight flexibility is now lost, and when something goes awry, in my experience, DL always has turned the other way. For example, when I was connecting NRT-SEA-PHX last year, my flight from NRT was late arriving due to headwinds and DL did nothing to accomodate a number of passengers. There was 20 of us or so connecting to PHX (all unrelated travel) and DL did nothing to help us. Our connecting flight was on AS with a DL codeshare and they said to go through DL. After about an hour and a half of trying to get them to do something, we finally all got rebooked through SLC. THEN we had to wait another 45 minutes for them to get us boarding passes and other "clearances" which I never in my life had to deal with. Took a bunch of running to the gate learn that I was again rebooked without my knowledge on a different flight to SLC and a different flight to PHX from SLC, which resulted in a 4 hour layover instead of the 45 or so DL originally had me on connecting at SEA.

This is not the first time I've had an issue while trying to connect with DL, but that was the most serious one out of many issues. If there was more flexibility in my flying, I'd probably use a different airline by now but sadly there isn't.


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