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Topic: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: B377
Posted 2012-11-01 21:38:25 and read 6654 times.

I hadn't seen that WN is discontinuing the MDW - IND market effective this coming Saturday posted on Airliners.net. It is confirmed on Southwest.com. Where there other routes cut in this schedule change?

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-11-01 23:00:02 and read 6529 times.

Quoting B377 (Thread starter):
hadn't seen that WN is discontinuing the MDW - IND market effective this coming Saturday posted on Airliners.net. It is confirmed on Southwest.com. Where there other routes cut in this schedule change?


Yes, including WN's shortest route, RSW-MCO.

All Nov 4:

Southwest's discontinued markets include:
Birmingham and Nashville
Ft. Myers and Orlando
Indianapolis and Chicago Midway


Southwest's new markets include:
Two daily nonstop flights between Dallas Love Field and Harlingen
One daily nonstop flight between Denver and Louisville
Two daily nonstop flights between Houston Hobby and Indianapolis
One daily nonstop flight between Houston Hobby and Orange County
One daily nonstop flight between Kansas City and New Orleans

Southwest assumes flying from AirTran:
One daily nonstop flight between Key West and Orlando
One daily nonstop flight between Key West and Tampa Bay
Two daily nonstop flights between Boston Logan and Milwaukee
One daily nonstop flight between Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood and Milwaukee
Five daily nonstop flights between Minneapolis-St. Paul and Milwaukee
One daily nonstop flight between San Francisco and Milwaukee
One daily nonstop flight between Orlando and Minneapolis-St. Paul

AirTran's seasonal new markets include:
One daily nonstop flight between Buffalo and Tampa Bay
One daily nonstop flight between Akron-Canton and Ft. Myers
One daily nonstop flight between Columbus and Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood
One daily nonstop flight between Columbus and Tampa Bay
One daily nonstop flight between Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood and Indianapolis
One daily nonstop flight between Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood and Philadelphia
One daily nonstop flight between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay
One daily nonstop flight between Rochester and Tampa Bay
Four weekly nonstop flights between Flint and Ft. Myers
Four weekly nonstop flights between Grand Rapids and Ft. Myers

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-11-01 23:03:13 and read 6514 times.

This route probably stems from the ATA days, but honestly I think it's more convenient to just drive to Chi-town if there is a need to visit there. Does AA have a route from IND to ORD?

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: mls515
Posted 2012-11-01 23:10:47 and read 6492 times.

Chalk one up for Megabus.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: usxguy
Posted 2012-11-01 23:13:09 and read 6489 times.

Actually WN has been serving IND-MDW well before ATA was even a scheduled airline...

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-11-01 23:13:09 and read 6487 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Does AA have a route from IND to ORD?

Yes, appears 7x daily ERJ on AA and I cound 11 on UA (this might be slightly off) mix of CRJ/CR7/E145/E170.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: skycub
Posted 2012-11-01 23:21:08 and read 6464 times.

This is old news.

It was announced months ago along with MCO-RSW and BHM-BNA.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-11-01 23:43:57 and read 6431 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 5):
Yes, appears 7x daily ERJ on AA and I cound 11 on UA (this might be slightly off) mix of CRJ/CR7/E145/E170.
Quoting mls515 (Reply 3):
Chalk one up for Megabus.

^ this. because of this, there literally is no O&D. it's so much easier to get to Chi-town from IND on megabus if just going for tourism. If someone needs to leave the country from IND they can just hop it up there on AE and UAex.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: type-rated
Posted 2012-11-02 01:42:55 and read 6317 times.

Northwest and American used to dominate the CHI-IND route with very high fares. Southwest brought those fares down. I imagine we'll see a return of high fares in the MDW-IND market.
Indianapolis has quite a number of companies based there, there should be some O&D with other firms in Chicago.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-11-02 02:02:57 and read 6301 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
[/quote
It's existed long before ATA. It's likely 95% connecting and thus with little local traffic the segment is unprofitable. Though it should have system contribution. Pax can connect over BWI or DEN to most places served via MDW. WN is changing. They're high cost and increasingly less profitable.

[quote=type-rated,reply=8]

I think you mean AA and US cuz NW never flew IND-CHI. USAir did in the old days.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 05:34:50 and read 6081 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 7):
^ this. because of this, there literally is no O&D.

It's a significantly (several hundred percent) larger local market than RSW-MCO or BHM-BNA. The trouble is that it's quite overserved, albeit less so than 10 years ago with both TZ 738 flights and various large UA mainline aircraft going to IND for maintenance.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-02 06:23:29 and read 5961 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 1):
Southwest's discontinued markets include:
Birmingham and Nashville
Ft. Myers and Orlando
Indianapolis and Chicago Midway

Everything around 200 miles is in danger

Shortest left are:
AUS-HOU 148
BWI-ORF 159**
OAK-RNO 180**
DAL-OKC 181
CRP-HOU 187**
AUS-DAL 189
HOU-SAT 192
FLL-TPA 197**
LAS-ONT 197
...
ISP-BWI 220**

IMHO, the ones with astericks are in the most danger.

[Edited 2012-11-02 06:30:06]

[Edited 2012-11-02 06:30:39]

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 06:44:32 and read 5880 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
IMHO, the ones with astericks are in the most danger.

Excluding flights between the original three cities and AUS, all of which should be safe, here are the rough local traffic and and average fares WN saw in Q311 (from faremeasure, so take them with a grain of salt):

BWI-ORF: 66 PDEW, $160
BWI-ISP: 200 PDEW, $123
OAK-RNO: 65 PDEW, $140
DAL-OKC: 65 PDEW, $153
CRP-HOU: 60 PDEW, $144
ONT-LAS: 253 PDEW, $122
TPA-FLL: 221 PDEW, $144

For comparison . . .

MDW-IND: 33 PDEW, $132
BHM-BNA: 8 PDEW, $132 (this one stuck around as long as it did because it carries a ton of BNA-DAL traffic)
MCO-RSW: 14 PDEW, $132

I can't speak to the quality of the beyond feed, but if ONT-LAS is safe, BWI-ISP likely is too. TPA-FLL has NK, but WN doesn't seem to have any trouble getting a significant fare premium to NK ($60 in the quarter I examined). As for the rest, all seem to do significantly better with local traffic than the three dropped routes, so I wouldn't necessarily conclude that they are in imminent danger of being cut.

Edited to fix error with ONT code and for clarity.

[Edited 2012-11-02 06:46:26]

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-11-02 06:46:04 and read 5873 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
CRP-HOU 187**

This is going nowhere......it is a long drive and people use it.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: bjorn14
Posted 2012-11-02 07:04:30 and read 5822 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 13):
Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
CRP-HOU 187**

This is going nowhere......it is a long drive and people use it.

   The only city in PWN/FL network that only went to one city. WN has five daily nonstops to HOU and most continue on to DAL

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 07:10:20 and read 5793 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 14):
WN has five daily nonstops to HOU and most continue on to DAL

With the same caveats as the data above, WN carries about 68 local PDEW CRP-DAL at an average fare of $166.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2012-11-02 07:18:22 and read 5755 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 14):
The only city in PWN/FL network that only went to one city. WN has five daily nonstops to HOU and most continue on to DAL

PWM only goes to BWI with 3 frequencies.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Everything around 200 miles is in danger

PIT-BWI is also short at 182.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
ISP-BWI 220**

For ISP, BWI is the major connection to the most of WN network. MCO and TPA maybe for a few markets. Also, the drive is from Long Island to the DC region is congested. I'd be surprised if it was cut.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-02 07:26:54 and read 5718 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 13):
This is going nowhere......it is a long drive and people use it.
Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 14):
The only city in PWN/FL network that only went to one city. WN has five daily nonstops to HOU and most continue on to DAL
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 15):
With the same caveats as the data above, WN carries about 68 local PDEW CRP-DAL at an average fare of $166.

That's awful. Have you seen the LFs? LOL. The 12 month *average * is 49%.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
BWI-ORF: 66 PDEW, $160
BWI-ISP: 200 PDEW, $123
OAK-RNO: 65 PDEW, $140
DAL-OKC: 65 PDEW, $153
CRP-HOU: 60 PDEW, $144
ONT-LAS: 253 PDEW, $122
TPA-FLL: 221 PDEW, $144

Those fares are completely wrong. Here are the DOT fares from DB1B YE 2Q2012.
BWI-ORF $114
BWI-ISP $99
OAK-RNO $106
DAL-OKC $100
CRP-HOU $117
ONT-LAS $97
TPA-FLL $119

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: frmrCapCadet
Posted 2012-11-02 07:32:11 and read 5699 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Everything around 200 miles is in danger

And about 134/145 from Seattle/SeaTac to Portland. Yoiks. And competing with Alaska to boot.

[Edited 2012-11-02 07:33:48]

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 07:35:09 and read 5685 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Those fares are completely wrong. Here are the DOT fares from DB1B YE 2Q2012.

Yes, but they can be compared relatively because the methodology (and thus the errors) is identical for all of them. Faremeasure fares can be compared to faremeasure fares. They cannot be compared to DOT fares.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: as739x
Posted 2012-11-02 07:42:22 and read 5663 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
OAK-RNO 180**

This route is not exactly get on the freeway and drive. The other routes you listed are nice, flat, straight drives. OAK-RNO during the winter requires chains or 4 wheel-drive and often deal with I-80 being closed during winter storms as you pass over the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: MountainFlyer
Posted 2012-11-02 08:39:20 and read 5337 times.

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 18):

And about 134/145 from Seattle/SeaTac to Portland. Yoiks. And competing with Alaska to boot.

Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but WN doesn't fly SEA-PDX. They're also stopping GEG-PDX in January.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: steex
Posted 2012-11-02 08:53:47 and read 5259 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Shortest left are:
AUS-HOU 148
BWI-ORF 159**
OAK-RNO 180**
DAL-OKC 181
CRP-HOU 187**
AUS-DAL 189
HOU-SAT 192
FLL-TPA 197**
LAS-ONT 197
...
ISP-BWI 220**
Quoting as739x (Reply 20):
The other routes you listed are nice, flat, straight drives.

Actually, I think a common thread among the non-Texas routes above is that they are not nice, flat, straight drives. BWI-ORF is 159 miles as the crow flies, but the drive is either a circuitous trek that involves crossing the Bay twice or a highway route that passes through DC and past Richmond. The congested drive from Baltimore to central Long Island takes you up the Turnpike past Philadelphia, across NJ, and then across Staten Island to head past JFK. While FLL-TPA is certainly flat, it's not straight since I-75 goes due west to Naples before turning north toward Tampa. ONT-LAS would likely be the easiest drive, but even that can be plagued by congestion.

That isn't to say that none of these routes will be cut, I'm just pointing out that none of them are as short to drive as the flight distance suggests they may be.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-11-02 08:59:35 and read 5218 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
BWI-ORF: 66 PDEW, $160
BWI-ISP: 200 PDEW, $123
OAK-RNO: 65 PDEW, $140
DAL-OKC: 65 PDEW, $153
CRP-HOU: 60 PDEW, $144
ONT-LAS: 253 PDEW, $122
TPA-FLL: 221 PDEW, $144
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
MDW-IND: 33 PDEW, $132
BHM-BNA: 8 PDEW, $132 (this one stuck around as long as it did because it carries a ton of BNA-DAL traffic)
MCO-RSW: 14 PDEW, $132

Wow. The three that are being cut should of been cut a long time ago looking at those numbers.

DAL-OKC has five flights a day along with CRP-HOU. The amount of connecting traffic must be astonishing, which is something WN has said they aren't after.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 09:05:58 and read 5187 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 23):
DAL-OKC has five flights a day along with CRP-HOU. The amount of connecting traffic must be astonishing, which is something WN has said they aren't after.

Words aside, WN has long been comfortable with two thirds or more passengers connecting on select routes, both these and some longer ones (e.g. LIT-STL).

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-02 09:19:28 and read 5277 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 19):
Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Those fares are completely wrong. Here are the DOT fares from DB1B YE 2Q2012.

Yes, but they can be compared relatively because the methodology (and thus the errors) is identical for all of them. Faremeasure fares can be compared to faremeasure fares. They cannot be compared to DOT fares.

Faremeasure is a screen scrape is it not? That tells you nothing about the mix and thus is no indication of anything related to the airline's revenue. If there is a $50 fare, but with only two available seats it would get equal weighting to the $195 fare with 75 seats sold.

DB1B is far more valid in terms of determining market performance which is what we were doing, right? As further proof, I point out that the % variances swing wildly further making my point.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 23):
CRP-HOU.

The only reason it remains is because WN is loathe to close its own home grown stations.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 24):
Words aside, WN has long been comfortable with two thirds or more passengers connecting on select routes, both these and some longer ones (e.g. LIT-STL).

It depends if the local market is high yield. If there are few locals and the fare is low it will get cut even if the planes are full. BNA-BHM wasn't empty. The loads were 63% for the last 12 months, 14 points better than CRP.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 09:23:04 and read 5250 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
That tells you nothing about the mix and thus is no indication of anything related to the airline's revenue.

If you hold fare structure and mix constant - which we can reasonably do for similar WN markets - it tells us about relative revenue performance. That's all I was trying to do. We'd need to use D1B for anything absolute, but with similar stage lengths and similarly sized local markets on the same airline, I don't think it's necessary to do so. It would be necessary to use D1B to go beyond the (fairly simple) comparison I was making.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-11-02 10:08:49 and read 5143 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 9):
I think you mean AA and US cuz NW never flew IND-CHI. USAir did in the old days.

What'd I say originally? my apologies

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: as739x
Posted 2012-11-02 11:09:01 and read 4901 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 22):
Actually, I think a common thread among the non-Texas routes above is that they are not nice, flat, straight drives.

Your assuming I'm a non-Texan, and your right. But I have lived in Texas before and those drives are very easy vs. driving though mountains, being stopped by Highway Patrol to put on chains you don't have, not being allowed to continue, etc. HOU-AUS, DAL-HOU, HOU-CRP, which one has a climb to 5,000ft in a winter blizzard?

My point being is that for many weeks of the winter, the Bay Area to RNO is an unbearable drive and flying is a nice option as well as the only feed into Tahoe skiing. If WN were to decide the short segment is not worth it, then so be it and other airline will just get more passengers. But in my opinion this flight will continue.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: steex
Posted 2012-11-02 11:24:33 and read 4806 times.

Quoting as739x (Reply 28):
Your assuming I'm a non-Texan, and your right. But I have lived in Texas before and those drives are very easy vs. driving though mountains, being stopped by Highway Patrol to put on chains you don't have, not being allowed to continue, etc. HOU-AUS, DAL-HOU, HOU-CRP, which one has a climb to 5,000ft in a winter blizzard?

My point being is that for many weeks of the winter, the Bay Area to RNO is an unbearable drive and flying is a nice option as well as the only feed into Tahoe skiing. If WN were to decide the short segment is not worth it, then so be it and other airline will just get more passengers. But in my opinion this flight will continue.

You're missing my point - I wasn't disagreeing with you, just expanding your point to say that it really applies to several of the markets. Re-read the statement of mine you quoted (emphasis added):

Quoting steex (Reply 22):
Actually, I think a common thread among the non-Texas routes above is that they are not nice, flat, straight drives.

I agree that all of the listed routes which touch Texas are indeed straight and easy drives for the most part - most of those are safe because of WN's heritage and market dominance. My point was that the common thread among the remaining short routes that do NOT touch Texas is that they all have some barriers that make driving more difficult than the air distance between the airports suggests. As a result of that, the air service is more attractive for those particular short routes (such as OAK-RNO, BWI-ORF, BWI-ISP) than it is for something like IND-MDW.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-02 11:28:03 and read 4801 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 29):
than it is for something like IND-MDW.

. . . or BHM-BNA, though MCO-RSW is a pain.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2012-11-02 12:02:29 and read 4645 times.

I'm surprised that there's been 30 posts on WN exiting IND-MDW and zero mention of the likelihood that O&D fares for AA and UA on IND-ORD will probably go up big-time. Connecting fares might have a chance to go up, too (IND has the lowest yields in the region).

IMO, the only reason why O&D fares on IND-CHI were far lower than on similar routes from nearby airports like FWA, CVG, and (especially) SBN are because of the "Southwest Effect". Take away the WN effect, limit the city pair to two hubbing legacies, and fares will rise (but the lousy yields at IND may have a chance to go to normal levels). Connecting flights will be a mixed bag, as you'll still get WN service from IND to other "connecting complexes", but not to MDW, so some destinations will be lost on WN.

And as stated earlier, Megabus and Greyhound, not UA and AA, will be the biggest beneficiaries of O&D traffic between Indy and Chicago. (Speaking of which, I am very surprised that Megabus hasn't offered service from Chicago to Fort Wayne yet.)

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: frmrCapCadet
Posted 2012-11-02 12:03:07 and read 4612 times.

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 21):
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but WN doesn't fly SEA-PDX. They're also stopping GEG-PDX in January.

Thanks for the correction.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2012-11-02 12:38:04 and read 4479 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 31):
And as stated earlier, Megabus and Greyhound, not UA and AA, will be the biggest beneficiaries of O&D traffic between Indy and Chicago

There's also Amtrak (albeit limited service) between Indianapolis and Chicago. It'd likely make a better experience over Greyhound, and it works as an option for someone who can't drive.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2012-11-02 12:48:37 and read 4454 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 33):
There's also Amtrak (albeit limited service) between Indianapolis and Chicago. It'd likely make a better experience over Greyhound, and it works as an option for someone who can't drive.

I've done IND-CHI on Amtrak before (train was the Cardinal...there's also the Hoosier State on the days the Cardinal doesn't run). Nice ride, but there are plenty of slow segments...it's not all 79mph running...so it takes around 5 hours. The bus is quicker, no doubt, although Amtrak will always win in the comfort department. I've always thought that IND-CHI could be a pretty big rail corridor, like CHI-STL for example...but it would need massive infrastructure upgrades, and Indiana isn't exactly a pro-rail state. Incidentally I flew IND-MDW once on WN as part of a one-stop same plane MSY-IND-MDW service. Sad to see the route go, but the stage length made it ripe for the axe.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: steex
Posted 2012-11-02 13:15:11 and read 4284 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 31):
IMO, the only reason why O&D fares on IND-CHI were far lower than on similar routes from nearby airports like FWA, CVG, and (especially) SBN are because of the "Southwest Effect". Take away the WN effect, limit the city pair to two hubbing legacies, and fares will rise (but the lousy yields at IND may have a chance to go to normal levels). Connecting flights will be a mixed bag, as you'll still get WN service from IND to other "connecting complexes", but not to MDW, so some destinations will be lost on WN.

Almost certainly true, but of course, that's also largely because the legacies don't especially plan to carry much O&D traffic on these extremely short segments - they are overwhelmingly for network value. With WN out of the market, the IND-CHI air market will certainly contract and the legacies will likely charge more of a premium for those who still insist on the short flight purely for O&D.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2012-11-02 13:58:28 and read 4112 times.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 34):
but it would need massive infrastructure upgrades, and Indiana isn't exactly a pro-rail state.

Outgoing (and term-limited) Indiana governor Mitch Daniels was one of the few Republican gubernatorial proponents of high-speed rail, and supported HSR lines linking Chicago with both Indy and Fort Wayne. (I'm not sure about either Mike Pence or John Gregg's stance on HSR.)

On the city level, people in IND are no fans of building light rail or commuter rail service, though IND's new terminal has a space reserved for a potential future light rail system. SBN has the South Shore Line running from downtown Chicago to the SBN airport.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2012-11-02 14:09:46 and read 4073 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 23):
DAL-OKC has five flights a day along with CRP-HOU. The amount of connecting traffic must be astonishing, which is something WN has said they aren't after.

You also have over 800 WN employees in OKC as well with a good deal of traffic between the two. On top of that, DAL-OKC is a pretty good market for the oil industry. Amtrak also has little impact since they are only 1 trip a day for right now from OKC to Ft. Worth (planned to go up to 2 soon).

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: milesrich
Posted 2012-11-02 14:10:49 and read 4052 times.

Quoting type-rated (Reply 8):
Northwest and American used to dominate the CHI-IND route with very high fares. Southwest brought those fares down. I imagine we'll see a return of high fares in the MDW-IND market.
Indianapolis has quite a number of companies based there, there should be some O&D with other firms in Chicago.

When did Northwest dominate the CHI-IND market? Before deregulation, it was a DL, AA, and EA market.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: PHLBOS
Posted 2012-11-02 14:32:58 and read 3994 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 35):
With WN out of the market, the IND-CHI air market will certainly contract and the legacies will likely charge more of a premium for those who still insist on the short flight purely for O&D.

Kind of like what happened earlier this year when WN dropped all of its PHL-New England (BOS/MHT/PVD) and it PHL-PIT routes; US (which hubs out of PHL) took advantage of the situation and tripled, even quadrupled their fares. Those not wanting to pay those fares either drove, did Amtrak, took a bus; or even flew out of an alternate airport (BWI).

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: okie
Posted 2012-11-02 19:17:48 and read 3123 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 37):
You also have over 800 WN employees in OKC as well with a good deal of traffic between the two. On top of that, DAL-OKC is a pretty good market for the oil industry

The Oil industry is connecting to HOU.

WN has always had lots of flights between DAL and OKC which gives excellent access to the rest of their system which is largely due to the Wright Amendment. Every time a new state gets a pass to the Wright Amendment we lose flights.

I would wait until 2014 before making any assessments as to how OKC shakes out. You can be assured that WN knows all the load factors, O & D or connecting and will adjust flights according. OKC will have to stand on it own legs after WA falls to the wayside. The problem is for O & D between DAL-OKC by the time you arrive early for security and rent a car on the other end you can drive it, especially if you are going on the north side of Dallas.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
DAL-OKC $100

Back in the 70's & early 80's walk up fare was $19 r/t OKC-DAL-OKC. No major security during those times. Just buy your ticket 10 minutes before flight time and be on the flight.
Many occasions for something to do, several of us would take the 4 or 5 pm flight to DAL for Happy Hour rent a car and hit a few bars and return on the 10 pm flight. Flights were about every hour except mid afternoon. Fun times.

Okie

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-11-03 09:31:56 and read 2552 times.

Quoting okie (Reply 40):
Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 37):You also have over 800 WN employees in OKC as well with a good deal of traffic between the two. On top of that, DAL-OKC is a pretty good market for the oil industry
The Oil industry is connecting to HOU

With DAL-HOU at 4x daily plus UA having a few daily express flights to IAH I don't see why many people would connect in DAL from OKC to get to HOU.

Quoting okie (Reply 40):
will have to stand on it own legs after WA falls to the wayside.

It will and at this point even with DAL flow traffic load factors out of OKC aren't anything amazing. As you said 2014 will be intersting for a lot of these smaller Texas and surrounding state stations.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2012-11-03 18:00:25 and read 2260 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 41):
With DAL-HOU at 4x daily plus UA having a few daily express flights to IAH I don't see why many people would connect in DAL from OKC to get to HOU.

I think you meant OKC-HOU.   However, you are right that most on the DAL-OKC aren't connecting on to HOU that much. There is plenty of nonstop options to take instead. The 4 WN flights and the 10 UA flights (1x A320, 2x CR7, 7x ERJ145) provided plenty of connectivity for the oil and gas industry.

Quoting okie (Reply 40):
Every time a new state gets a pass to the Wright Amendment we lose flights.

This is pretty false. We are at 23 daily flights as of the new schedule. That number has been pretty flat through the year. However, we have seen nonstop to DAL, STL, and MCI exchange for nonstops to MDW, BWI, and DEN. Not a bad trade if you ask me.

Quoting okie (Reply 40):
I would wait until 2014 before making any assessments as to how OKC shakes out. You can be assured that WN knows all the load factors, O & D or connecting and will adjust flights according. OKC will have to stand on it own legs after WA falls to the wayside. The problem is for O & D between DAL-OKC by the time you arrive early for security and rent a car on the other end you can drive it, especially if you are going on the north side of Dallas.
Quoting iowaman (Reply 41):
It will and at this point even with DAL flow traffic load factors out of OKC aren't anything amazing. As you said 2014 will be intersting for a lot of these smaller Texas and surrounding state stations.

I've seen DEN have a good deal of through traffic from DAL. I assume the other routes have some as well, but nothing that is going to make or break OKC for WN. OKC-Dallas still managed 288 O&D pax per day. Not too shabby. Do I think WN will cut back to less than 5 flights on OKC-DAL? I don't think so. I think we are at a good level now, maybe down to 4 but at some point you start to give up too much AA. I also think when DAL is opened up, we'll see a lot more demand for connecting traffic through DAL or at least one stop options.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2012-11-03 20:32:10 and read 2114 times.

Is anyone surprised?!? A few things to consider:

From the Chicago/MDW perspective

It is a very easy 3-3 1/2 hour drive from downtown Chicago to downtown Indianapolis. Those in Chicago most likely to use MDW, that is to say, those in the city and southern suburbs, are the closest to Indianapolis and wouldn't be subjected to much, if any, traffic. I could see somewhat higher O&D out of ORD, such as time sensitive business folks in the northern parts of the city or northern/northwestern suburbs opting to skip the messes that 94 and 294 can become. Also, the 2x daily WN offering was obviously not as attractive as the much more frequent UA/AA options for business folks.

WN has from an ops standpoint maxed out their MDW facilities, and this isn't an airport with much room for expansion. WN is busy adding even more flights - BKG, CLT, ROC, and (seasonal) PBI - and I daresay we'll see even more stuff come online as the merger progresses, such as AUA, BOI, DCA, ELP, GEG, JAX, MBJ, MEM, ICT, PUJ, PWM, RIC, SJU, and/or TUL. Cutting something with virtually no O&D like IND helps make room for the new flights. I should imagine everything else is far enough away to stay, i.e. CLE, CMH, DSM, MSP, SDF, STL. I don't think we'll see MDW-GRR or MDW-DAY though, seeing as how they didn't opt for MDW-FNT.

From the IND perspective

IND flyers have no need for MDW. Absolutely everything they are connecting to through MDW can be reached via alternatives like BWI, MCI, DEN, PHX, and LAS. Also, I daresay the addition of IND-HOU is a great consolation prize for the loss of IND-MDW service.

Thanks to that nice new terminal, IND is a pretty expensive place to operate from. By cutting the redundant (from a network connectivity perspective) IND-MDW flights, they can lower their costs.

So, bottom line I don't think anyone will miss these flights. WN gains operational advantages on both ends of the flights and FFers have plenty of options to fall back on!

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-11-03 22:15:45 and read 2035 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
I think you meant OKC-HOU

Wow not sure how I missed that, yes you are correct!

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2012-11-04 07:37:33 and read 1830 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 43):
Also, the 2x daily WN offering was obviously not as attractive as the much more frequent UA/AA options for business folks.

IIRC, IND-MDW was 4x daily toward the end, not 2x. The replacement HOU service is 2x daily.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2012-11-04 08:03:04 and read 1800 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 43):
I should imagine everything else is far enough away to stay, i.e. CLE, CMH, DSM, MSP, SDF, STL. I don't think we'll see MDW-GRR or MDW-DAY though, seeing as how they didn't opt for MDW-FNT.

Regarding SDF and DAY, it seems existing service or potential service to MDW would make more sense from CVG. 3 carriers on Louisville to Chicago, a 5 hour drive, might be oversaturated. Actually SDF-STL is even shorter at 4 hours of drive but it is an exclusive route for WN.

[Edited 2012-11-04 08:09:24]

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-04 09:33:57 and read 1693 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 43):
IND flyers have no need for MDW. Absolutely everything they are connecting to through MDW can be reached via alternatives like BWI, MCI, DEN, PHX, and LAS.

I understand what you are saying. That said, the length of many itineraries will increase, and that may drive some passengers away. It's tough to know how large that effect will be.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-11-04 10:24:30 and read 1632 times.

I think this kills the idea of GRR-MDW that some here have talked about. Without significant local, WN has signaled they can't and won't fly such routes.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-04 10:36:02 and read 1615 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 48):
Without significant local, WN has signaled they can't and won't fly such routes.

It's tough to properly compare because of the different competitive landscapes, but I think GRR-CHI might be a larger market than IND-CHI with similar service levels. It is not an easy drive, especially in the winter.

Topic: RE: WN Cuts MDW - IND Eff 11/3/2012
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2012-11-04 16:10:38 and read 1442 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 49):
I think GRR-CHI might be a larger market than IND-CHI with similar service levels. It is not an easy drive, especially in the winter.

IIRC, prior to FL's arrival at GRR, much of GRR's leakage went to MDW.


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