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Topic: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-06 09:25:15 and read 1068 times.

More fallout from the E190 removals, but why not try their nutty 4/week mainline thing they have been doing rather than completely exit? Another (non-WN) DEN route bites the dust.


http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/ne...ier-airlines-ending.html?ana=yfcpc
http://missoulian.com/news/state-and...e-281b-11e2-a052-001a4bcf887a.html

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-06 09:52:28 and read 1070 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
More fallout from the E190 removals, but why not try their nutty 4/week mainline thing they have been doing rather than completely exit? Another (non-WN) DEN route bites the dust.

"Nutty"?

Since the "nutty" scheduling helped drive the $30 million profit in Q3, I hope to see a lot more nuttiness.

mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-11-06 11:37:49 and read 1069 times.

This is unfortunate news for BIL. The lowest-fare network option to connect anywhere other than the Northwest is now gone. UA and DL will now dominate the BIL market along with QX to SEA and PDX, and they are already not cheap. DL often charges over $400 rt on the short BIL-SLC route a month in advance.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mcg
Posted 2012-11-06 14:15:03 and read 1073 times.

So GTF is probably dead and I should let go of my fantasy of F9 to MSO.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: iceberg210
Posted 2012-11-06 14:53:45 and read 1070 times.

Am I surprised that Montana is losing some service? Not really (disappointing but after the gutting of places like Boise and all over the inter-mountain region you figure it'll happen...) what is a shock is which one they are getting rid of. Billings I would think being the biggest city in Montana and certainly having a ton of draw as a commercial center of that area would hold service longer than Great Falls or even Bozemon... As much as I love Great Falls, I've always been shocked that Frontier serves it and also that they have maintained service there... Just doesn't seem like big enough of a market... Hopefully Frontier will come back to Billings at some point after a sale, when they have more flexibility, or with 4x weekly service or something....

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-06 15:21:50 and read 1072 times.

Quoting mcg (Reply 4):
So GTF is probably dead and I should let go of my fantasy of F9 to MSO.

GTF will depend on whether Frontier believes it can fill the A319:

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/art...10005/2012-Frontier-numbers-strong

"2012 Frontier numbers strong
Airline might fly bigger jets here next year

But the airport and its business backers might have to do an even better job of filling planes if Frontier returns next summer, he told the Great Falls Airport Authority, because Frontier confirmed it’s converting to a full fleet of larger, 138-passenger Airbus jets."


By the beginning of next year there will only be four E190's left in Frontier service, and they'll go away as soon as Republic can find other work for them

Quoting iceberg210 (Reply 5):
what is a shock is which one they are getting rid of. Billings I would think being the biggest city in Montana and certainly having a ton of draw as a commercial center of that area would hold service longer than Great Falls or even Bozemon...

Yet BZN is transitioning to the A319, starting in January.

mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mcg
Posted 2012-11-06 15:38:12 and read 1070 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 6):
Quoting mcg (Reply 4):
So GTF is probably dead and I should let go of my fantasy of F9 to MSO.

GTF will depend on whether Frontier believes it can fill the A319:

I think GTF provided some sort of revenue guaranty, I don't think any funding was required from it. I suppose if GTF offers the support Frontier will take it. The folks in MSO would love to see F9, but there doesn't seem to be much progress in organizing the required support. It seems to me that UA has reduced fares between MSO and DEN over the last few months (now typically available at about $330), which may discourage F9. I can dream though!

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-11-06 19:05:16 and read 1070 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
Yet BZN is transitioning to the A319, starting in January.

Billings is a good three times the size of Bozeman and is the economic center of the state. Bozeman however has a bigger draw during the winter months being the gateway to a busy winter recreation area.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: Stapleton
Posted 2012-11-06 19:40:50 and read 1071 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 7):
Billings is a good three times the size of Bozeman and is the economic center of the state. Bozeman however has a bigger draw during the winter months being the gateway to a busy winter recreation area.

I'm surprised at how busy Bozeman is. According to the Montana Department of Transportation (http://www.mdt.mt.gov/publications/docs/datastats/boardings-2012.pdf) Bozeman has boarded 343,836 passengers through September and Billings boarded 333,272. For Frontier specifically, Bozeman boarded 39,287 through September and Billings boarded 34,934. I realize Bozeman has a lot going for it with Montana State University, proximity to Yellowstone National Park, several ski resorts and is more centralized to the other population centers in the state but I didn't know they did that well.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2012-11-06 20:10:15 and read 1071 times.

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 8):
I realize Bozeman has a lot going for it with Montana State University, proximity to Yellowstone National Park, several ski resorts and is more centralized to the other population centers in the state but I didn't know they did that well.

Yep. Billings is somewhere you go if you have to go there. Bozeman is an actual desirable destination.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: m11stephen
Posted 2012-11-06 20:16:45 and read 1070 times.

Does F9 have its own ground staff in BIL which will result in layoffs or do they contract their ground operations out to another airline there?

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-06 20:37:04 and read 1071 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
"Nutty"?

Since the "nutty" scheduling helped drive the $30 million profit in Q3, I hope to see a lot more nuttiness.

mariner

As you know 3Q is almost always profitable for F9. They will be breakeven on an operating basis for the year which is worse than any other U.S. airline absent VX. AA even made money in 3Q before they filed for Ch11. Further, they are still benefiting from the prorate feed from the E190s at DEN which is going away in announcements just like this one. They will be hard pressed to match current performance next year without that feed.

If you listened to the quarterly call...

Analyst: "What is the current credit card holdback?"
Republic: "95% on Visa/Mastercard, 100% on Amex"
Analyst: "Is there any opportunity to improve that given the improved performance of the company?"
Republic: "Given the uncertainty for Frontier going forward with sale effort, we don't see any change going forward."

Those are close to exact quotes. Operating breakeven is not very good and if the credit card companies won't even give F9 more than a 5% credit against holdback I don't know how they find a buyer. That's a significant negative. Additionally, it appears to me that at this point that there is not enough cash at the combined companies to effectively spin-off F9 without an equity infusion which comes back to a buyer/investor being needed.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-06 20:59:00 and read 1070 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
As you know 3Q is almost always profitable for F9. They will be breakeven on an operating basis for the year which is worse than any other U.S. airline absent VX.


There have been very few times - I can't recall any but I haven;t checked - when Frontier has made a profit of $30 million in Q3. And In Q3 2011, Frontier lost money.

Q2 profit ($14 million) plus Q3 profit ($29.8 million) less Q1 loss ($20 million) makes for a year to date profit of about $24 million, which is rather more than breakeven.

Is it good enough? No. But it is a considerable turnaround.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Further, they are still benefiting from the prorate feed from the E190s at DEN which is going away in announcements just like this one.

That isn't my understanding of the deal for the E190's.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Republic: "Given the uncertainty for Frontier going forward with sale effort, we don't see any change going forward."

Precisely. Nothing will change until separation.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
dditionally, it appears to me that at this point that there is not enough cash at the combined companies to effectively spin-off F9 without an equity infusion which comes back to a buyer/investor being needed.

A buyer/investor has always been the preferred option. That hasn't changed. As BB said when the "separation: was announced - no one wanted to buy Frontier last time around, why should this time be different?

I understand that I'm wasting my time with this, because I've said it all before and you ignore what I say.

mariner

[Edited 2012-11-06 21:52:24]

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: redzeppelin
Posted 2012-11-07 06:31:42 and read 1072 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 7):
Billings is a good three times the size of Bozeman and is the economic center of the state. Bozeman however has a bigger draw during the winter months being the gateway to a busy winter recreation area.

According to the 2010 census, the population of Billings is 104,170, and Bozeman is 37,280. As a Bozeman resident, I can tell you that a lot of our population actually lives outside of the incorporated city limits. That is reflected in the county populations. Yellowstone County (Billings) has 147,972 and Gallatin County (Bozeman) is 89,513. BIL clearly serves a larger population base, especially considering that it serves pretty much all of eastern Montana and a big chunk of Wyoming. BZN has limited reach given the proximity to BIL, HLN, BTM, WYS and IDA. I think that BZN has benefitted from the drawdowns at BTM over the years, as I often meet people from Butte on BZN flights. But the real traffic drivers at BZN seem to be the university and the outdoor recreation industry. In the summer, people are always carrying on fly rods, and in the winter there is a bus to Big Sky ski resort there to meet almost every plane. It's a huge business here.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: bjorn14
Posted 2012-11-07 06:36:08 and read 1069 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 7):
Billings is a good three times the size of Bozeman and is the economic center of the state.

Yeah, I am bit concerned that F9 can't make money in Montana's biggest market. BZN & MSO maybe more desirable but still.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: redzeppelin
Posted 2012-11-07 06:58:17 and read 1069 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 14):
Yeah, I am bit concerned that F9 can't make money in Montana's biggest market. BZN & MSO maybe more desirable but still.

  

As wonderful as I think BZN is, I still wouldn't be a bit surprised to see F9 suspend the route as soon as ski season is over in the spring. I'm not sure how much local traffic F9 really gets out of BZN. The only people I know that fly them regularly have family or business connections in DEN. I can't remember the last time I heard anybody say that they flew F9 with a connection beyond DEN. The FFs I know here all stick with DL or UA.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: MountainFlyer
Posted 2012-11-07 07:08:06 and read 1069 times.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 15):
As wonderful as I think BZN is, I still wouldn't be a bit surprised to see F9 suspend the route as soon as ski season is over in the spring. I'm not sure how much local traffic F9 really gets out of BZN.


I would suspect GTF would loose F9 service before BZN as BZN has been the up and coming airport in Montana for a few years now, finally surpassing BIL in total passengers it now appears and even securing direct flights from faraway hubs like ATL and EWR during peak seasons. Although, I am very surprised F9 gave up BIL before GTF as well, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised at anything.

I guess the writing was (maybe?) on the wall when F9 dropped BOI, although even that's a difficult comparison as BOI has WN. BIL does not nor is it ever likely to.

So who is the big winner here? UA? DL? It was noted that AS is (minorly) increasing service to PDX, although I can't see AS being a big winner in this case except for pax headed to the PacNW.

[Edited 2012-11-07 07:14:42]

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-07 07:55:14 and read 1071 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 12):
There have been very few times - I can't recall any but I haven;t checked - when Frontier has made a profit of $30 million in Q3. And In Q3 2011, Frontier lost money.

Again, it's an operating profit, not a net profit. I don't think that was unusual pre-Ch11. Since then their results have been mucked up with RJETs...until now.

Quoting mariner (Reply 12):
Q2 profit ($14 million) plus Q3 profit ($29.8 million) less Q1 loss ($20 million) makes for a year to date profit of about $24 million, which is rather more than breakeven.

Oh, there are only 3 quarters this year? I thought there would be four. Huh... As you know, 4Q is traditionally unprofitable.  
Quoting mariner (Reply 12):
Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Further, they are still benefiting from the prorate feed from the E190s at DEN which is going away in announcements just like this one.

That isn't my understanding of the deal for the E190's.

That is exactly how it works. So, under CPA all the revenue is retained and the operator charges Frontier for the costs of operating the A/C plus a margin. That is effectively how they previously accounted for the RJs at F9, although theoretically there was zero margin, but you don't really know that for sure. Now, they are treating as a prorate relationship. That means the revenue is divided using a standard formula. Effectively that means that the stage adjusted yield of the journey is the same as the passenger connects from regional jets to mainline. That's what fair proration does and they have said it is standard industry proration they are using now. So, since the CASM (stage adjusted) is always higher on the smaller A/C, that means that the mainline does much better in terms of margin than the regional in a fair proration. That's why proration with regionals basically doesn't exist any more and everybody went to CPA. So, the revenue quality that F9 gets from the RJs is much better than what the regionals are getting relative to cost. That quality revenue feed to F9 is declining at a rapid clip as the elimination of the RJs pulls that revenue away from F9. It can be backfilled with the next local passenger turned away by revenue management, but the reason regionals exist is that the revenue quality of the regional connecting passenger is MUCH better than the value of the next passenger revenue management prices out of the market. Bottom line, it will be a significant revenue hole for F9 to fill. It's also part of why the DEN hub is starting to collapse.

Quoting mariner (Reply 12):
Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Republic: "Given the uncertainty for Frontier going forward with sale effort, we don't see any change going forward."
Precisely. Nothing will change until separation.

That's bad. It tells investors the company is not viable and it means that the company will need to infuse F9 with a ton of cash to buy their way out of that awful holdback. So, basically, they need to 1) buy Frontier from Republic for some amount of money, 2) avoid loading down a marginal business with any debt (operating profits do not include interest expense), and 3) infuse F9 with enough cash to get back to an industry standard holdback. VERY TALL ORDER.

Quoting mariner (Reply 12):
A buyer/investor has always been the preferred option. That hasn't changed.

The difference is that now I think it is the only option. I don't think a spin-off is viable any longer. If they could have reversed the hold back it would have added $70-100 million in cash to their balance sheet and made them much more attractive for purchase or allowed them enough cash to consider a spin-off. They can't spin them off with $40 or $50 million in cash.

[Edited 2012-11-07 08:29:36]

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: floridaflyboy
Posted 2012-11-07 08:23:22 and read 1071 times.

Quoting m11stephen (Reply 10):
Does F9 have its own ground staff in BIL which will result in layoffs or do they contract their ground operations out to another airline there?

F9 has an on-site manager, but the actual ground handling is done by QX.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-07 09:09:27 and read 1069 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Again, it's an operating profit, not a net profit. I don't think that was unusual pre-Ch11. Since then their results have been mucked up with RJETs...until now

There were no special charges put against it. It is effective net. And it saved Republic's financial butt for the quarter.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Oh, there are only 3 quarters this year? I thought there would be four. Huh... As you know, 4Q is traditionally unprofitable.  

I said "year to date." That means "the year up until today."

I don't try to predict the future, as you well know. However, the guidance to the analysts is for Q4 profit.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
That is exactly how it works.

The deal was changed some months ago. It was discussed in threads in which you participated.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
That's bad.

How can any CCP know what the financial structure of the separated airline is? No one knows.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
The difference is that now I think it is the only option.

At least, you've come around to what was always likely to happen. At last.

mariner

[Edited 2012-11-07 09:38:49]

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-07 09:51:03 and read 1069 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 14):
Yeah, I am bit concerned that F9 can't make money in Montana's biggest market.

Any route that can't support the A319 year round will go.

Frontier is becoming an all Airbus airline - there will be no E190's in the fleet.

mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2012-11-07 10:12:18 and read 1069 times.

Many small to medium sized airports have or should have citizen populous top five or ten wish list i.e where local citizens want to fly from their origin airport. This is usually driven by economical development and to a certain extent tourism.

I recently responded to a marketing poll generated by the CKV airport authority who queried the local populous. DFW came in first; two fold. Given CKV geographical location I thought it might be one of any nearby hubs or focus cities including STL or the greater Chicago area as a east-west connecting gateway. The greater Dallas area was not on my radar. Although the airport was pushing MCO it ultimately came in number 4. These decisions are best left to the flying public and not the egos of airport managers and to a certain extent airline executives who start and stop service.

As it relates to F9 and BIL; DEN may or may not be the the number one location the residents of BIL want to fly to. BIL should market their airport to the cities its citizens want to fly not necessarily where one airline wants to offer service too.

If memory serves me GTF is a gateway to Glacier National Park. I have a hunch GTF will ultimately be downsized to a Summer seasonal market very much like ANC.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-07 10:13:12 and read 1069 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
There were no special charges put against it. It is effective net. And it saved Republic's financial butt for the quarter.

It is absolutely not. Interest expense and taxes are "below the line". All mortgage financing of aircraft and any general corporate debt is not included. RJET has $130 million per year in interest expense. That's not included. If that were divided up it would wipe out F9's profit so far this year.

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
That is exactly how it works.

The deal was changed some months ago. It was discussed in threads in which you participated.

...and what is different?

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
That's bad.
How can any CCP know what the financial structure of the separated airline is? No one knows.

It's a lack of confidence and a big negative to a buyer.

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
The difference is that now I think it is the only option.
At least, you've come around to what was always likely to happen. At last.

This was the one case where you didn't believe BB. He clearly said if he could not find a buyer, he would do a spin-off.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: floridaflyboy
Posted 2012-11-07 10:21:25 and read 1071 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 21):
If memory serves me GTF is a gateway to Glacier National Park. I have a hunch GTF will ultimately be downsized to a Summer seasonal market very much like ANC.

FCA is the closest airport to Glacier. GTF is still quite a hike from there. And GTF is already summer seasonal.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-07 10:41:42 and read 1069 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
It is absolutely not. Interest expense and taxes are "below the line". All mortgage financing of aircraft and any general corporate debt is not included. RJET has $130 million per year in interest expense. That's not included. If that were divided up it would wipe out F9's profit so far this year.

Since Republic took over the airline, the Frontier number has always been effective net - profit or loss.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
...and what is different?

It is publiclly available knowledge and discussed in threads in which you participated. You'll just throw rocks at whatever I say.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
It's a lack of confidence and a big negative to a buyer.

I can't think why any CCP would agree to the unknown.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
This was the one case where you didn't believe BB. He clearly said if he could not find a buyer, he would do a spin-off.

Still putting words in my mouth? I heard separation. You (and many others) heard sale.

The separation has always been based on the FAPA agreement of March (?) 2011 and it remains the template. It is playing out exactly as they said it would.

However, there is a new option, which I assume comes from Barclays, but (a) that still requires the investor and may involve the spin-off and (b) since I'm bored with batting down your negatives, I'll leave it at that.

mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2012-11-07 11:09:28 and read 1108 times.

Quoting floridaflyboy (Reply 23):
FCA is the closest airport to Glacier.

Thanks for the geographically challenged in me. If I have the right airport FCA is GPI in flightaware. As a brief look goes it appears FCA/GPI is covered better in the west from DEN,SLC, SEA for lager airports; not so much from the east. GTF seem to be better covered from the east and also receives quite a bit of service from the west. I guess it all depends where any specific flyer originates from.

Quoting floridaflyboy (Reply 23):
And GTF is already summer seasonal.

On a E190 or A319? I didn't check. As this thread seems to be about the E190 and BIL I just assumed BIL was solely a an E190 market. My hunch was GTF may be upgraded to an A319 summer seasonal as a gateway to Glacier National Park.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-07 11:20:34 and read 1117 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 25):
My hunch was GTF may be upgraded to an A319 summer seasonal as a gateway to Glacier National Park.

As earlier, GTF will depend entirely on whether Frontier believes it can fill the A319:

http://www.kfbb.com/news/local/Frontier-Airlines--176684321.html

"Frontier Airlines a Big Hit in Great Falls

Early reports show that Frontier Airlines had a successful first summer of air service in Great Falls. Based on second quarter data released by the Federal Aviation Administration, Frontier made an impact on several markets during the summer.

Faulkner and other airport authority will be flying out to Denver next month to convince Frontier to return to Great Falls next year.

If the airline comes back next spring, airport authorities expect Frontier to use a 138 seat air bus which is about 40% more seats than what they used this year."


mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2012-11-07 11:43:13 and read 1150 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
As earlier, GTF will depend entirely on whether Frontier believes it can fill the A319:

Concur and as of right now the OAG thread shows the big goose egg through April. Summer seasonal doesn't begin in high altitude mountainous areas until at least late May. Denali National Park south of FAI for one doesn't even open until mid to late June.

I also noticed over the years through various winter time fare sales F9 rarely competes DEN with other well known snow resorts in the lower 48. I've often thought they could make cash hand over fist if they marketed the Alyeska ski resort 40 miles south of ANC. Its where quite a bit of Hollywood elite escape too snow ski.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: MountainFlyer
Posted 2012-11-07 12:44:49 and read 1143 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 25):
If I have the right airport FCA is GPI in flightaware. As a brief look goes it appears FCA/GPI is covered better in the west from DEN,SLC, SEA for lager airports; not so much from the east.

FCA is covered year-round with service to MSP via DL (both mainline and Connection flights), and seasonally to ORD and ATL via UA and DL, respectively. GTF only gets service from MSP from the east.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-07 13:26:22 and read 1149 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
It is absolutely not. Interest expense and taxes are "below the line". All mortgage financing of aircraft and any general corporate debt is not included. RJET has $130 million per year in interest expense. That's not included. If that were divided up it would wipe out F9's profit so far this year.

Since Republic took over the airline, the Frontier number has always been effective net - profit or loss.

"Effective net" is not a "thing". It is not a financial term that google can locate. Anyway, whatever you want to call it, it is always going to be more positive than a stand-alone company's "net profit" which is the official scorecard. Those companies must actually pay for its loaned money and taxes to the govt. Both are clearly not included. I agree they have not been included since RJET bought them, I'm saying that as a stand-alone entity they are not profitable not providing a return on investment. This is why there has been no buyer.

If we are talking about things that are no longer included versus last year, then I direct you back to my comments about proration and RJs.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-07 13:56:26 and read 1148 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 29):
I agree they have not been included since RJET bought them, I'm saying that as a stand-alone entity they are not profitable not providing a return on investment. This is why there has been no buyer.


There hasn't been a buyer because they don't expect to be able to sell it, at least for an appropriate price - see BB's comment above.

Investors are a different matter, forward looking not backward looking.

The only non-secured debt that Frontier carried forward from the Chapter 11 is to Republic, the rest was resolved. But you always told me I was wrong about that, too, although it helped to win the auction.

For the rest, Republic is in the business of making Republic look good - that is profitable. As in the conference call, Frontier has to stand on its own two feet.

mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2012-11-07 20:41:49 and read 1117 times.

It never ceases to amaze me how every thread with Frontier has to get hijacked in some sort of vain attempt to be right. After how many years, we have a likely profitable year - yet we are supposed to fall in line and accept that Frontier must fail. The glass is half empty. The cloud has no silver lining. The emperor has no clothes.

Yet here we are still discussing a going concern called Frontier - and that drives one or two people absolutely nuts.

It would have been much more convenient if Frontier had just followed the script. But they didn't - time to get over it and just accept them for the airline they are and stop tearing them down as a punishment for their insolence.

-Dave

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: F9animal
Posted 2012-11-07 20:45:35 and read 1122 times.

Wow, another doom and gloom F9 thread.... Seriously enilria, what is your gig? You have been saying that F9 was going under for a few years now. I am quite tired of it now. You have been proven wrong over a thousand times, if not more. Why continue planning a funeral when the airline is clearly doing much better now? Do you realize that Frontier Airlines is not going under? Do you realize that Frontier Airlines is here to stay?

[Edited 2012-11-07 20:51:01]

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2012-11-07 22:11:42 and read 1114 times.

The thing is, it doesn't really matter who is right or wrong, and it may very well be that Frontier ultimately disappears. What matters is that some people apparently come to A.net solely to prove something. Perhaps it's to make themselves something here that they havent been able to be in life? Who knows? Regardless, at some point it gets to be a little too much. Like telemarketers who don't care who they bother or when they bother them - it's all about them.

Pathetic.

- Dave

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: skycub
Posted 2012-11-07 23:00:19 and read 1108 times.

Seriously.... can enilria and mariner not just get a room of their own?

For God's sake... take your argument elsewhere. It get's a little old for the rest of us.

Isn't this what the dedicated Frontier threads are for?

You Frontier people want a dedicated thread.... keep your dirty laundry there.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: IllinoisMan
Posted 2012-11-07 23:10:25 and read 1113 times.

Quoting F9animal (Reply 32):
Seriously enilria, what is your gig?

If all the F9/Bryan Bedford apologists are allowed to put their predictable "spin" on things, then surely things should allowed to be evened out from the other side of the spectrum? As Mariner like to says, "it goes both ways."

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2012-11-07 23:44:17 and read 1114 times.

In a thread about Billings, we end up with the equivalent to a prosecuting attorney preparing to put Frontier on trial - yet again. Ditto in a thread about SNA. Ditto in the OAG thread. It's no longer a balanced dialogue. It's simply shooting holes in every F9 thread or comment that comes up.

And to put Mariners comments in context, the OP started off with a snarky, baited opener. Mariner provided a perfectly appropriate - and brief - reply, and off we went.

- Dave

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-11-08 07:07:02 and read 1096 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 30):
The only non-secured debt that Frontier carried forward from the Chapter 11 is to Republic, the rest was resolved.

Interest expense applies to both secured and unsecured debt.

Everybody else...the bottom line is that they have not succeeded in being able to find a buyer and none appear to be in sight. Anybody disagree with that? It seems to me that at this point Republic has two choices, reverse their position and retain F9 or announce a new plan.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2012-11-08 07:51:32 and read 1095 times.

Enilria is stating the obvious.

F9 wouldn't be posting a profit if they were a stand alone and had to include all of their balance sheet items. It's pretty much fact, not his opinion... and due to this fact it appears to have made finding a buyer pretty tough. If they were making all of this money as straight profit, a buyer would be standing at the front door to take it off of BB's hands.

Don't shoot the messenger because you don't like his message.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: MountainFlyer
Posted 2012-11-08 07:56:38 and read 1096 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 31):
It never ceases to amaze me how every thread with Frontier has to get hijacked in some sort of vain attempt to be right.
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 33):
What matters is that some people apparently come to A.net solely to prove something.
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 33):
Like telemarketers who don't care who they bother or when they bother them - it's all about them.


Delete "with Frontier" in your first quote and you cover about 80% of all A.net posts, and replace "A.net" with "internet" in your second quote and you cover about 80% of the world of internet discussion forums, or so it seems.

My point is, in defense of enilria and mariner, if everyone else is so tired of it, quit reading the thread. There are hundreds of others to read.

For me, at least, despite the different opinions, I at least appreciate the educated nature of enilria and mariners posts. There might be a dig here and there, but it's nothing compare to the uneducated $..t slinging that goes on in many threads, especially in political discussions outside of A.net. Write or wrong doesn't matter to me, they both debate with facts, figures, and educated opinion, which I learn a lot from them both. That's the beauty (or curse, depending on how you look at it) of internet forums.

[Edited 2012-11-08 07:58:21]

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mcg
Posted 2012-11-08 08:08:28 and read 1092 times.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 13):
BZN has limited reach given the proximity to BIL, HLN, BTM, WYS and IDA. I think that BZN has benefitted from the drawdowns at BTM over the years, as I often meet people from Butte on BZN flights. But the real traffic drivers at BZN seem to be the university and the outdoor recreation industry. In the summer, people are always carrying on fly rods, and in the winter there is a bus to Big Sky ski resort there to meet almost every plane. It's a huge business here.

I've actually flown to BZN to travel to MSO. It's 3 hours down I-90 (not far really by Montana standards) but if it's a couple hundred bucks cheaper and you've got a party of two or three it's easily worth it. DEN - BZN compared to DEN - MSO really shows the value of competition. DEN - BZN has two carriers and is always cheaper than DEN - MSO with one carrier.

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-11-08 09:14:04 and read 1090 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 37):
Everybody else...the bottom line is that they have not succeeded in being able to find a buyer and none appear to be in sight. Anybody disagree with that? It seems to me that at this point Republic has two choices, reverse their position and retain F9 or announce a new plan.

What does that matter?

Sean Menke couldn't find a buyer, but Frontier continues to fly - as Frontier. If another airline bought it, it likely wouldn't be around - as Frontier.

Given the results, there may be some on the Republic BOD who would vote to keep the airline. Absent that $30 million, Republic would have reported a loss.

mariner

Topic: RE: F9 Closing BIL Jan23
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2012-11-08 09:20:54 and read 1093 times.

MountainFlyer, I appreciate your comments and respectfully disagree with your premise.

-Dave


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