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Topic: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-11-10 17:41:50 and read 2978 times.

With United's flexibility (although I don't know the extent of their ability to send the right ac to match demand) what are their best new options given their already comprehensive network? Will we be seeing more long thin routes to Asia with their upcoming 787 fleet? Are there holes in Europe, Africa, Middle East and deep South America? Which routes will help them compete with either Delta or even Star Alliance partners? I often use their 757's to secondary cities in Europe. Or 3 class 767's out of EWR (like Zurich)

I saw the thread about Cape Verde and wondered with their capital to capital leadership if Brasilia would be high on the list. Or to better compete better with AA and Delta from EWR. I also "could" see more paid First on 3 class birds from NY to big premium and ULH destinations- example: Wall St to HK, FRA, BOM or GRU.

United service today is worth reconsidering, it is surprisingly better and more consistent in recent months.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: flylku
Posted 2012-11-10 18:46:16 and read 3010 times.

The 787 may also provide the opportunity to add frequency to existing routes.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: as739x
Posted 2012-11-10 19:05:52 and read 3010 times.

Quoting VC10er (Thread starter):

Look for more International from SFO

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: AirframeAS
Posted 2012-11-10 19:06:48 and read 3007 times.

I'd like to see some New Zealand service. Considering that NZ has a monopoly (why?!) on those routes to the U.S; I'm not holding my breath.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: allegiantflyer
Posted 2012-11-10 19:29:17 and read 3005 times.

I think Africa is the biggest hole in the UA route map. Maybe they can think about Capetown or Johannesburg

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: aznmadsci
Posted 2012-11-10 19:33:14 and read 3008 times.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 4):
I think Africa is the biggest hole in the UA route map. Maybe they can think about Capetown or Johannesburg

I think there's some North or West African cities UA could look into. Does anyone know how IAH-LOS is now doing?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: as739x
Posted 2012-11-10 19:46:41 and read 3001 times.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 3):
I'd like to see some New Zealand service. Considering that NZ has a monopoly (why?!) on those routes to the U.S; I'm not holding my breath.

Yeah, this route is well covered by partner NZ. I'd look for more markets that are not already connected.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-10 20:06:59 and read 3006 times.

Long-term I would like to see them de-link MEL. I think that a 787 LAX-MEL would be doable for them, but I certainly am not holding my breath. If that happens at all, it is certainly a long way off.


More realistically, I think we will see greater "optimization" of the current network before organic growth. I simply do not believe that ORD can support F on every route while EWR can only support it on a handful. Once the joint pilot contract comes into force I could see some more sUA heavies going to EWR and IAH and sCO metal moving to ORD and IAD. Routes such as LHR, FRA, ZRH and HKG can probably support F from all of the hubs, while secondary European cities are possibly better served by sCO frames with J only. Eventually I think we will see more of a 50-50 split of the long haul fleet systemwide, rather than all the 2 class frames in sCO hubs and all the 3 class frames in sUA hubs.

With regards to new routes, I think that LatAm should be the focus going forward. The region is growing rapidly, with significant inflows of investment from North America and a newly-mobile middle class driving demand. More secondary cities in Brazil are probably the best place to start.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: ManekS
Posted 2012-11-10 22:07:22 and read 3006 times.

I would like to see UA do a nonstop SFO-SIN service with their 787's. While EWR-SIN might be a better bet, the 787-8 lacks the range needed to operate the route. Besides, UA seem to prefer expanding their Asian operations out of SFO.

With SIA pulling the plug on the EWR and LAX nonstops due to the A340-500's poor economics, UA has an opportunity to woo the bankers and corporate clients who are now looking at one stop options. UA would have no problems filling up a premium cabin to SIN, especially since J is configured with just 36 seats. After all, the 787 was designed to give airlines a chance fly long, thin routes profitably.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: ANA787
Posted 2012-11-10 22:38:58 and read 3006 times.

Restarting PDX-NRT, SEA/PDX-HNL.
Starting NRT-CGK/KUL.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: COSPN
Posted 2012-11-10 22:45:13 and read 3010 times.

SFO-MNL would be a no brainer..PR has to fuel stop in GUM UA really needs to step it up agianst DL in the MNL market..

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mhkansan
Posted 2012-11-10 22:50:31 and read 3006 times.

I know it won't happen until we get a new terminal building constructed, but I'm holding out for at least an announcement for DEN-MHK and/or ORD-FOE on UAX.

MHK proved everybody wrong with its Eagle service.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 4):

I think Africa is the biggest hole in the UA route map. Maybe they can think about Capetown or Johannesburg
AA to announce MIA-JNB 77W next year? Lots of speculation, but where would UA do S. Africa from? IAD?? They already have South African!

Quoting as739x (Reply 2):
Look for more International from SFO

What's next for UA @ SFO to Asia? TPE was a good add.

[Edited 2012-11-10 22:52:00]

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: legacyins
Posted 2012-11-10 23:02:23 and read 3005 times.

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 11):
What's next for UA @ SFO to Asia? TPE was a good add.

Maybe finally starting the Canton route.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: 777ord
Posted 2012-11-11 05:52:21 and read 3007 times.

in addition to further expansion of SFO as stated before. ORD will receive a variety of new service.

752 service to SNN, and the POSSIBILITY of upgrades to 777 to Europe.

Further UA/CO integration will occur. Such as NRT-SIN on CO 777 due in March if I recall.

Right now on the CO side, we've taken over a lot of predominently UA ops in compared to recent months. They have as well of our operations. Such as IAH-ORD on the 763 which comes in from IAH.

So for some the integration looks like a nightmare, but it has a purpose and an ultimate objective. And I am excited for it!

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2012-11-11 05:53:49 and read 3001 times.

Perhaps restarting RDU-DEN and adding a second RDU-SFO?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: aznmadsci
Posted 2012-11-11 06:25:51 and read 2999 times.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 8):
I would like to see UA do a nonstop SFO-SIN service with their 787's.

If UA was to step into nonstop SIN territory, LAX or EWR seem ideal ahead of SFO. Would the economics of the 788 or possible 789 route work in UA's favor.

Quoting ANA787 (Reply 9):
Restarting PDX-NRT, SEA/PDX-HNL

UA would have competition on all 3 routes. UA would compete against DL on PDX-NRT and to HNL they would be competing with AS, DL, and HA.

Quoting ANA787 (Reply 9):
Starting NRT-CGK/KUL

This might work with GUM based 738s.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 7):
Eventually I think we will see more of a 50-50 split of the long haul fleet systemwide, rather than all the 2 class frames in sCO hubs and all the 3 class frames in sUA hubs.

I don't see UA expanding Global First to CLE, DEN, or IAH to do a 50/50 split. While a.net perceived IAH-GIG/LHR/NRT flights could offer F, UA planners haven't been in a rush to send a 3-class plane to those cities as they did EWR-BRU/ZRH. They did upgauge IAH-GIG to a sCO 772, added a 3rd LHR flight on a 2-class sUA 763, and have downgauged the EWR-BRU flight to a sCO 764. Yet, the lone 3-class 772 that does visit IAH is the IAH-HNL flight.

Quoting COSPN (Reply 10):
SFO-MNL would be a no brainer..PR has to fuel stop in GUM UA really needs to step it up agianst DL in the MNL market.

Would the Philippine government allow UA to start a LAX/SFO-MNL nonstop flight with the 788 if PR and 5J are not allowed to start new US services because of Cat II? The government could use UA as a ploy in the help to achieve Cat I status.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: quiet1
Posted 2012-11-11 07:25:42 and read 3007 times.

Quoting ANA787 (Reply 9):
Starting NRT-CGK/KUL.

And/or adding CGK or KUL as a tag to SFO-TPE. A long time ago UA flew SFO-TPE-BKK. Perhaps a SFO-TPE-KUL or SFO-TPE-CGK flight could help maintain the SFO-TPE flight on a more permanent basis by keeping the loads up?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: usdcaguy
Posted 2012-11-11 07:35:17 and read 3001 times.

I would say that RDU-SFO is very likely, although RDU-SJC may be more popular with tech firms. How about LAX-GRU/EZE or SFO-GRU/EZE? The West Coast remains poorly served to South America to this day, but I know how challenging it would be to fill planes with enough revenue for those markets. Would LAX-GRU be more feasible for UA than for DL with its West Coast network?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: capri
Posted 2012-11-11 07:59:43 and read 2998 times.

CMN is crying for a competitor the monopoly and high prices from AT

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: SonomaFlyer
Posted 2012-11-11 08:21:10 and read 3003 times.

While there may be a few new domestic routes started, its likely UA's new routes for a while will be on the international front. Though China's economy has cooled somewhat, I expect they will add service to some secondary China markets before long. As for Africa, though South Africa has the largest economy but its unlikely that route will make much $$ for UA given the existing competition unless its was a 788/89 route.

South America - UA can and should increase service from EWR and IAH to South America to take on AA, LAN and DL. There isn't as large of a west coast market but service from either LAX or SFO to Brazil wouldn't be a bad idea.

Given STAR, don't expect new service to AUK anytime soon.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: DTWLAX
Posted 2012-11-11 08:22:31 and read 3002 times.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 8):
With SIA pulling the plug on the EWR and LAX nonstops due to the A340-500's poor economics, UA has an opportunity to woo the bankers and corporate clients who are now looking at one stop options. UA would have no problems filling up a premium cabin to SIN, especially since J is configured with just 36 seats.

SQ still offers the 1-stop option to LAX and JFK.
Cannot say about NY, but people who flew nonstop from LAX will switch over to the SQ 1-stop instead of UA. SQ flies the A380 on the route that offers a much better hard and soft product compared to UA.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-11-11 08:26:33 and read 3001 times.

I suspect we will see a good bit of weekend stuff out of IAD with 73s....Like IAD-Caribbean/Central America

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-11-11 08:29:27 and read 3006 times.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 3):
Considering that NZ has a monopoly (why?!) on those routes to the U.S

How much service does a country with a population about the same as metro PHX need? If it was considered a profitable market by other carriers, I'm sure they would be operating. The fact that they aren't seems to indicate they have more profitable ways to use their aircraft.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-11-11 08:31:00 and read 3002 times.

A few thoughts:
Wow, I didn't know that IAH to GIG went to an sCO 777. That is a lot of capacity! I have always prayed for the old SA)">CO route (EWR/GIG) to come back as I live in both cities. With TAM going away, a 2 class 767 (or 787) would be perfect to fly it. I think GRU needs GF, almost every international airline into GRU has an F cabin, even TAM. GRU is a behemouth "MAJOR" business and even a luxury destination (great shopping and hotels) - and always at least 10+ hours. Brazil's 2013 growth I believe is projected at about 4.5%. As for LAX to GRU, I did the VARIG flight once. For United to connect GRU to SFO then onto Asia (or west coast USA) I wonder why it doesn't work- especially with the size of Brazilians of Japanese roots. The largest pop of Japanese outside Japan.

Why did United pull Moscow? Does anyone know why? A great capital to capital route. From a BRICS standpoint, that is a painful loss.

Last, sure it is great to have a Star partner cover a destination like South African, or New Zealand. But if you book a United flight from JFK to JNB but it's operated by SA, how much of that ticket price goes to UA? Also, for those who are eagerly seeking Global Services status...you MUST be on United metal.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: evanbu
Posted 2012-11-11 08:33:34 and read 3003 times.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw DSM/OMA-IAD...

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: as739x
Posted 2012-11-11 09:37:04 and read 3538 times.

Quoting legacyins (Reply 12):
Maybe finally starting the Canton route.

That what were hoping. UA is running into one problem thought, International gate capacity during the morning peak. I'm curious if we may see a shift to a few late night flights leaving with CX,CI and BR. And I believe that timing would work with CAN as well as MEL or MNL as someone wanted above.

Quoting COSPN (Reply 10):
SFO-MNL would be a no brainer..PR has to fuel stop in GUM UA really needs to step it up agianst DL in the MNL market..

I don't see this happening. To much VFR traffic with awful yields and the 787 is 36/183 configuration. That a lot of biz class seats that likely will go empty.

Personally I don't think we will see a lot of 787 flying from SFO. As we can see from next summers schedule the 747's will be mainly flying from here. They are adding additional seats to SFO

Quoting ANA787 (Reply 9):
Restarting PDX-NRT, SEA/PDX-HNL.

Not a chance. Why??

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: rising
Posted 2012-11-11 11:14:12 and read 3363 times.

What ever happened to CAN?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Andie007
Posted 2012-11-11 13:31:34 and read 3771 times.

Perhaps EWR-VIE would be an option.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-11 14:51:07 and read 3734 times.

I hope to see more Africa and Brazil. Can 757s do IAH to Fortaleza, Recfife, or Manaus? Would also love to see IAH-Johannesburg. I can see IAD and/or EWR to CPT, Johannesburg, Sal, Casablanca, and the stretch, Nairobi.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: fxramper
Posted 2012-11-11 14:59:19 and read 3742 times.

EWR-PRG? Didn't DL dump their flight from JFK? 3rd daily to TLV or split their 2 now -one 777 one 747. 3rd daily to India. Newark-S.Africa?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-11 15:00:47 and read 3709 times.

Quoting aznmadsci (Reply 15):
UA planners haven't been in a rush to send a 3-class plane to those cities as they did EWR-BRU/ZRH.

I think this has more to do with operations efficiency and the fact that the status quo works, rather than because it is the most optimal strategy.

I am in no way saying that every route out of EWR needs F, indeed quite the opposite. Similarly I am not advocating moving sCO metal onto every flight out of ORD. Rather after a joint contract, when they can move metal around easier, I think we will see more fleet cross-overs.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: HUYfan
Posted 2012-11-11 15:02:51 and read 3753 times.

There must be room for UA on ORD-MAN!?

The AA service, by all accounts, has a fantastic yield.

Kind regards

Mike

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-11 15:12:13 and read 3714 times.

Quoting ManekS (Reply 8):
I would like to see UA do a nonstop SFO-SIN service with their 787's.

I don't believe the 787 has the range to fly this route (or SIN-LAX or EWR).

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: avi8
Posted 2012-11-11 15:15:57 and read 3756 times.

I think UA could re-launch LAX-GUA and add more EWR-GUA frequencies. They recently announced IAD-SAL which foreshadows where they are pointing at in my opinion. UA should take advantage of TA and CM who dominate Central America. Colombia should be interesting as well since they have AV/TA and Copa Colombia which are both members of *A too.

Just my two cents,
Avi8

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: gemuser
Posted 2012-11-11 15:20:08 and read 3757 times.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 23):
Last, sure it is great to have a Star partner cover a destination like ... New Zealand

There already is, called "Air New Zealand"!   - a member of Star Alliance.
UA even code share with them already.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: AwysBSB
Posted 2012-11-11 15:27:44 and read 3733 times.

Quoting VC10er (Thread starter):
and wondered with their capital to capital leadership if Brasilia would be high on the list.

That route does really deserve a better regard.
Transbrasil used to operate BSB-IAD, a route that currently has a regular o/d traffic which other UA's routes between IAD and Brazil does not have. Besides that, DL's ATL-BSB does not have an o/d traffic as significant.
Therefore, it is time for UA operates its 752 on that capital to capital route and take advantage of that pair of hubs.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: UnitedTristar
Posted 2012-11-11 15:32:58 and read 3803 times.

I would not be surprised

DEN-LHR 788
LAX-MEL 788
LAX-AKL 788
ORD-MAN 752
IAH-SCL 767
SFO-TLV 777
SFO-BLR 788
BOS-LHR 752
BOS-BRU 752
CLE-FRA 752
NRT-KUL 777
NRT-CAN 738

Going out on a limb, perhaps some point to point to FRA ala DL to CDG

BDL-FRA
PIT-FRA

or maybe something crazy off the wall like

HNL-PER
IAD-CPT
EWR-JNB
IAH-BRU

Either way, it will defiantly be interesting!

-m

  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-11 15:40:14 and read 3744 times.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
CLE-FRA 752

4,141mi may be a bit too far for a 757. I believe EWR-TXL is the longest TATL 757 route that has been flown by UA, and it is 3,980mi. CLE-CDG, also flown by CO with a 757, was 3,937mi.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: fun2fly
Posted 2012-11-11 15:54:10 and read 3701 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 37):
4,141mi may be a bit too far for a 757. I believe EWR-TXL is the longest TATL 757 route that has been flown by UA, and it is 3,980mi. CLE-CDG, also flown by CO with a 757, was 3,937mi.

Would the E+ configuration installed on the 752's make this work due to lighter weight? Or perhaps w/a few person penalty. I bet there is enough traffic to support it w/LH on the other end and only 16 BF seats. However, not sure UA is that interested in CLE.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
IAH-SCL 767
Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
DEN-LHR 788

I would have thought we'd have seen both of these already.

Perhaps we need some TATL recovery first = 2014
.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
BOS-LHR 752

They passed on this and gave it to DL.

SFO>CAN has to happen sometime....seems like a route designed for the 788.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2012-11-11 16:13:13 and read 3691 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 28):
I hope to see more Africa and Brazil. Can 757s do IAH to Fortaleza, Recfife, or Manaus? Would also love to see IAH-Johannesburg. I can see IAD and/or EWR to CPT, Johannesburg, Sal, Casablanca, and the stretch, Nairobi.

B757 doesn't have the range for IAH-FOR/REC.
Interesting would be for UA to fly to South Africa via Brazil as PanAm once did. Make it EWR-REC-JNB daily and IAH-REC-CPT thrice per week.
Loads on IAH/EWR-GIG/GRU are too good to add tag-on to CPT and/or JNB, even if possible by U.S.-Brazil/South Africa bilaterals.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 33):
I think UA could re-launch LAX-GUA and add more EWR-GUA frequencies.

As long as AV (then TA) is flying California-Central America, I can't see UA trying LAX/SFO-Central America, unless it's a SFO-PTY (because CM B737-700 may have a tough time flying PTY-SFO non-stop).

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: AA94
Posted 2012-11-11 16:28:15 and read 3676 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 32):
I don't believe the 787 has the range to fly this route (or SIN-LAX or EWR).

The 787 has a listed range of 7650 - 8200 nm depending on seating config. According to Great Circle, here is the distances for the three routes:

SFO-SIN: 7340 nm
LAX-SIN: 7620 nm
EWR-SIN: 8285 nm

It seems like SFO-SIN would definitely be doable, and perhaps LAX-SIN as well depending on the range of a UA-configured 787.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-11-11 16:43:36 and read 3677 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 18):
CMN is crying for a competitor the monopoly and high prices from AT

   Issue is that UA will see little to no F/J traffic and pass, even though it's a short-sighted view imho

My personal international top 10 list (no particular order):
EWR-GIG
EWR-ICN
EWR-VIE
IAD-DOH (nonstop, none of this tag nonsense)
IAD-RUH
IAH-SCL
LAX-MEL
LAX-HKG
SFO-NGO (788)
SFO-PTY

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-11 18:08:45 and read 3619 times.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
SFO-TLV 777
SFO-BLR 788

At 7,560 nm the 787 might be able to push BLR. If it could that would be an awesome route! I could see it working very well, both in terms of J demand and cargo uplift (so long as the route isn't weight restricted). Bear in mind that since the route is almost directly due north-over the pole-due south, there should be less impact from prevailing winds as an east-west route.

As for SFO-TLV, I don't know how big the Jewish population is on the west coast, but it sounds like a good option if there is the demand to support it.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
BOS-LHR 752
BOS-BRU 752

Hmm, I guess this depends on whether UA is interested in making a go of BOS. I would suggest that it is highly unlikely. After all, BOS-LHR would be up against 5 daily with BA/AA.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
CLE-FRA 752

If UA decide to keep CLE then this would be a great flight (maybe LHR as well - I know that CO flew to LGW and cut the flight, but...)

The problem is, as mentioned above, the 752 might not have the legs. If they keep CLE it might be good to add a couple of long-haul flights to feed the hub in order to keep it viable. After all, I can imagine there are a fair few people who would be quite happy to avoid EWR or ORD when heading to Europe!

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2012-11-11 18:21:28 and read 3631 times.

Not much talk of United Express routes, so here's one that I see very soon: FWA-IAD.

And for very good reason, moreso than FWA-DEN or FWA-EWR:
-Very strong O&D between the two areas (even stronger than FWA-NYC), with most of the traffic going to IAD and not DCA/BWI
-Surveys have recently been done by the Greater Fort Wayne Chamber of Commerce regarding local business usage of FWA-IAD
-Would fill in a huge gap in the Northeast from FWA (which is already well covered out west and south with ORD/ATL/DFW/MSP, but only DTW to the east)
-Would open up additional European and Middle Eastern connectivity from FWA (both UA and Star partners)

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-11 18:32:23 and read 3604 times.

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 38):
Would the E+ configuration installed on the 752's make this work due to lighter weight?

Not my area of expertise, but someone here should know.

Quoting AA94 (Reply 40):
The 787 has a listed range of 7650 - 8200 nm depending on seating config. According to Great Circle, here is the distances for the three routes:

And someone should know a definitive answer to this as well. I believe SIN-LAX was the longest route in the world measured by flying time (longer than EWR). Can the 787 carry enough fuel to stay in the air for 16-17 hours with a full passenger load?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: CALPSAFltSkeds
Posted 2012-11-11 18:56:31 and read 3609 times.

Let's take a look at available international widebodies.
-5 762s (going away)
+4 788 (2012 aircraft)
+8 763ER (right now 3 in mod, 3 in domestic config and 2 intl aircraft in MX) - many of the former routes are being flown with 753s
-3 772 (guessing that 3 772A will become Hawaiian aircraft)
+4 764 (slated for 2 class lie-flat in 2012) - swap with 772A aircraft

That's 8 additional international widebodies and every 788 after the first 4 would add to that total.

Possibilities:
Upgrading of some EWR-TATL routes
Frequency increases on TATL routes
Eastern European routes the 752 can't make and SA)">CO didn't have the widebodies to operate - WAW, PRG, HEL, VIE. Maybe CPH would return with a 752 and/or Moscow with a 763.
Added service to IAD - Don't know if HKG or TLV would work.
Added SA flying - IAH-SCL, EWR-GIG, more Brazil
Australian service - Would something like LAX/SFO-BNE-MEL work on the same aircraft?
EWR or SFO-BLR
SFO-SIN

FYI: JNB 's shortest distance to a UA hub is EWR at 7085NM.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: cle757
Posted 2012-11-11 19:01:06 and read 3628 times.

My wish list!

CLE-FRA 767-200/300
CLE-LHR 757
CLE-HNL 767-300/400
CLE-EYW ERJ/CRJ
CLE-COS 737/Airbus

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: COSPN
Posted 2012-11-11 19:13:49 and read 3585 times.

Quoting aznmadsci (Reply 15):
Would the Philippine government allow UA to start a LAX/SFO-MNL nonstop flight with the 788 if PR and 5J are not allowed to start new US services because of Cat II? The government could use UA as a ploy in the help to achieve Cat I status.

Most Likely yes...; because Its about bringing in more $$$ to the Philippines also PR and 5J will get approved as soon as they pass the FAA Audit (failed last time) but there will be lots of pressure from PR (SanMiguel) and 5J to do what the FAA wants and pass it this time..

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-11 19:38:33 and read 3560 times.

Does UA do IAD-PEK? If not, it seems like it'd be a good 777 route; being a star hub to star hub and capital to capital flight.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: gemuser
Posted 2012-11-11 20:20:24 and read 3541 times.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 45):
lian service - Would something like LAX/SFO-BNE-MEL work on the same aircraft?

Well it adds BNE, which is a plus, but it does nothing for MEL, which is approximately twice the size of BNE. It doesn't make the connection any easier in Australia as LAX-MEL is same plane service and the connect from SFO-SYD is international to international (all pax from LAX/SFO go through C&I in MEL) so that is very easy.

B787s LAX-BNE and LAX-MEL and maybe SFO-SYD-MEL would seem to make more sence to me. The B787 is too small for SYD-LAX.

Geemuser

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-11-11 20:27:33 and read 3560 times.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 34):

I am aware of Air New Zealand in Star, and code sharing, but if I book UA, but it's operated by NZ, then the revenue goes to NZ. In whole or in part...I don't know. Also, it will go towards 1K, but those who want to be invited to GS, would stop in Sydney to get the BIS miles on UA metal. It would be nice to fly a black 777 though  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: legacyins
Posted 2012-11-11 20:28:01 and read 3555 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 48):
Does UA do IAD-PEK? If not, it seems like it'd be a good 777 route; being a star hub to star hub and capital to capital flight.

UA does IAD-PEK on a 777. UA 897/898

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: legacyins
Posted 2012-11-11 20:31:03 and read 3489 times.

When EI pulled out of SFO, local groups in Ireland and the Bay Area were lobbying UA to start a SFO-DUB route after EI passed the second time. Could be a 787 route.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: eaglefarm4
Posted 2012-11-11 21:20:21 and read 3439 times.

I have no doubt that BNE will be linked in to the USA once they get a considerable fleet of 787's.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: shamrock604
Posted 2012-11-11 21:38:01 and read 3464 times.

Quoting legacyins (Reply 52):
When EI pulled out of SFO, local groups in Ireland and the Bay Area were lobbying UA to start a SFO-DUB route after EI passed the second time. Could be a 787 route.

The Irish transport minister has also requested UA to look at SFODUB - it is a route sought after by the tech industry, who have commited to the purchase of a number of seats each day.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-11 23:06:50 and read 3447 times.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 54):
The Irish transport minister has also requested UA to look at SFODUB - it is a route sought after by the tech industry, who have commited to the purchase of a number of seats each day.

I guess that up until now UA haven't had the best fleet to operate this route. It will be interesting to see if it happens now that they have 2 class 767s.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: shamrock604
Posted 2012-11-11 23:18:15 and read 3466 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 55):
I guess that up until now UA haven't had the best fleet to operate this route. It will be interesting to see if it happens now that they have 2 class 767s.

Indeed. UA have shown a renewed interest in serving Europe from SFO lately too, having added CDG (which is not exactly a high yield route).

The tech links between the two cities are so strong that the forward cabin will certainly be well occupied.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: flyhossd
Posted 2012-11-11 23:28:55 and read 3447 times.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 45):

Let's take a look at available international widebodies.
-5 762s (going away)
+4 788 (2012 aircraft)
+8 763ER (right now 3 in mod, 3 in domestic config and 2 intl aircraft in MX) - many of the former routes are being flown with 753s
-3 772 (guessing that 3 772A will become Hawaiian aircraft)
+4 764 (slated for 2 class lie-flat in 2012) - swap with 772A aircraft

That's 8 additional international widebodies and every 788 after the first 4 would add to that total.

Possibilities:
Upgrading of some EWR-TATL routes
Frequency increases on TATL routes
Eastern European routes the 752 can't make and SA)">CO didn't have the widebodies to operate - WAW, PRG, HEL, VIE. Maybe CPH would return with a 752 and/or Moscow with a 763.
Added service to IAD - Don't know if HKG or TLV would work.
Added SA flying - IAH-SCL, EWR-GIG, more Brazil
Australian service - Would something like LAX/SFO-BNE-MEL work on the same aircraft?
EWR or SFO-BLR
SFO-SIN

FYI: JNB 's shortest distance to a UA hub is EWR at 7085NM.

Interesting post.

And I hate to rain on everyone's upbeat parade, but I see the opposite happening. That is, other than what's already been announced (like DEN-NRT), I see contraction as the merger progresses.

From my perspective, the leaders with vision and the guts to risk some of the routes suggested in this thread are long gone and have been replaced with bean-counters. And given the results of the last quarter, I think there's going to be pressure to "perform" and the spreadsheet warriors will try to shrink to profitability.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-11-12 06:06:58 and read 3396 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 55):

767's can handle west coast to Europe?

Whithere think there are only 2 767-400's, is their range similar to a 767-300ER?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-12 06:16:19 and read 3401 times.

I'm not sure about mainland Europe, but BA used to fly the 767 LAX-MAN, so I assume it's doable. Does anyone know what thrust rating BA have on their 767s? Do BAs have a higher MTOW than UAs?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-12 06:20:21 and read 3408 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 59):
I'm not sure about mainland Europe, but BA used to fly the 767 LAX-MAN, so I assume it's doable. Does anyone know what thrust rating BA have on their 767s? Do BAs have a higher MTOW than UAs?

I don't know the thrust rating, but I think you'll find that LAX-CDG is the longest route a UA 763ER has ever operated.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mogandoCI
Posted 2012-11-12 07:07:14 and read 3390 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 41):
EWR-GIG
EWR-ICN
EWR-VIE
IAD-DOH (nonstop, none of this tag nonsense)
IAD-RUH
IAH-SCL
LAX-MEL
LAX-HKG
SFO-NGO (788)
SFO-PTY

I'd say SFO-MEL before LAX-MEL. SFO-CAN before NGO.

SFO-BKK with 788. EWR-DME with 763.

Do a single plane IAH-IAD-RUH-JED to serve both govt and oil interests.

And if they want something super left field - SFO-TSN or IAH-JNB.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MJBATC12
Posted 2012-11-12 07:50:48 and read 3348 times.

I'd like to see BDL-SFO or BDL-IAH. IAH makes more sense though.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RAGAZZO777
Posted 2012-11-12 07:57:15 and read 3344 times.

IAD-LIM and IAH-SCL are on my wish list.  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RDH3E
Posted 2012-11-12 08:14:50 and read 3390 times.

Quoting COSPN (Reply 10):
SFO-MNL would be a no brainer..PR has to fuel stop in GUM UA really needs to step it up agianst DL in the MNL market..

Not. Going. To. Happen. You'll see "one-stop" routing Mainland-GUM-MNL before you'll see that, which in itself is highly unlikely.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 23):
Why did United pull Moscow? Does anyone know why? A great capital to capital route. From a BRICS standpoint, that is a painful loss.

Russia is a huge pain for Visa's. As much as we hate on VFR/Vacation traffic around here, it helps fill the planes, provides revenue.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 45):
That's 8 additional international widebodies and every 788 after the first 4 would add to that total.

Look at total fleet counts is decieving. Remember UA still has reconfigurations going on, E+ going in, a commitment to install wi-fi, and aircraft coming up on checks. If someone has the number of aircraft they can schedule that would mean a lot more. I'd bet it's down year over year pretty significantly.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-12 08:31:31 and read 3349 times.

A piece in today's WSJ says a looming pilot shortage owing to both retirements and tightened experience levels will start to pinch by next summer and will persist through 2014. The author makes it sound as if expansion for the next couple of years will perforce be limited and the smallest cities or least profitable routes may in fact lose service altogether. Regionals should be most affected, but mainline carriers will feel the pinch.

So it sounds as if only the most profitable new service will occur and new aircraft will be mainly used to replace the current fleets. So if a route proposal won't start making money by day two, it may not happen.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-11-12 09:13:44 and read 3367 times.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 61):
Quoting Tdan (Reply 41):
EWR-GIG
EWR-ICN
EWR-VIE
IAD-DOH (nonstop, none of this tag nonsense)
IAD-RUH
IAH-SCL
LAX-MEL
LAX-HKG
SFO-NGO (788)
SFO-PTY

I'd say SFO-MEL before LAX-MEL. SFO-CAN before NGO.

SFO-BKK with 788. EWR-DME with 763.

Do a single plane IAH-IAD-RUH-JED to serve both govt and oil interests.

And if they want something super left field - SFO-TSN or IAH-JNB.

SFO-SYD was on the ropes until QF dropped it. LAX-OZ is massive and despite the TBIT issues, the majority of connecting traffic chooses LAX over SFO when going between the US and Australia.

I put SFO-NGO first over SFO-CAN because it's shorter and essentially the same fare as CAN. Plus there's little to no front cabin demand to CAN, it all goes via HKG. I'm not a huge fan of either, but I think NGO with a 788 could possibly work whereas I'm very skeptical on CAN.

SFO-BKK will have range issues with the 788. EWR-DME won't be much better than IAD-DME because all the ethic traffic (which comprises the majority of the volume) lives on Long Island and will not shlep to NJ for a flight, especially with Transaero in the market.

         on IAH-IAD-RUH, but with just one correction: Oil is in DMM and not JED, so IAH-IAD-RUH-DMM would be awesome!

I wish IAH-JNB would work, but if UA serves JNB, it will be from EWR since it's actually a shorter route. They just need a plane that can make it without a fuel stop and if they get one, EWR-JNB will be one of their next best additions.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-12 09:23:48 and read 3341 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 66):
Plus there's little to no front cabin demand to CAN

Guangzhou is a fast growing economic centre. While its growth as a financial centre will always be somewhat constrained since it is right next to Hong Kong, the border in the way means that there must surely be enough J demand to fill one flight per day to the USA? After all, a 2 hour ferry ride isn't all that convenient.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 66):
EWR-JNB will be one of their next best additions.

Is JNB really that profitable?

I would have though that somewhere like NBO would actually be more profitable given that there isn't any competition.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-11-12 09:38:45 and read 3334 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 67):
Guangzhou is a fast growing economic centre. While its growth as a financial centre will always be somewhat constrained since it is right next to Hong Kong, the border in the way means that there must surely be enough J demand to fill one flight per day to the USA? After all, a 2 hour ferry ride isn't all that convenient.

Oh there's definitely business traffic going to CAN, but my point was that most of it flies in and out of HKG (especially from the US). Reasons for this are due to competition, schedule, choice, etc, but also because most of the F/J traffic also has business in HKG. It's interesting on routes between US-Asia that the trip is such a long journey, business travelers will often combine multiple cities on one trip. This was one of the reasons why SQ had issues with EWR/LAX-SIN (aside from the price of fuel and the terrible A345) is because traffic was very directional. A typical trip to the PRD that I've booked will be a Saturday flight US-HKG, meetings in HKG on Mon/Tue, visit production facilities in SZX and CAN on Wed/Thu, return to HKG for dinner Thursday night and fly out of HKG Friday.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 67):

Is JNB really that profitable?

This is one of DL's top routes in its entire network. Most premium long-haul cargo in the system as well.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-12 09:45:07 and read 3336 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 68):
A typical trip to the PRD that I've booked will be a Saturday flight US-HKG, meetings in HKG on Mon/Tue, visit production facilities in SZX and CAN on Wed/Thu, return to HKG for dinner Thursday night and fly out of HKG Friday.

Got you. I have only been to China for vacation, but my mother operates on a schedule similar to yours so I know what you mean.

Sunday to PVG, Monday/Tuesday meetings in Shanghai, Wednesday visit factory in Nanjing, Thursday morning fly to HKG, Thursday afternoon/Friday meetings in Hong Kong, fly home Friday night or Saturday morning.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 67):
This is one of DL's top routes in its entire network. Most premium long-haul cargo in the system as well.

Interesting, I didn't realise that

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: legacyins
Posted 2012-11-12 10:09:50 and read 3370 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 66):
SFO-SYD was on the ropes until QF dropped it.

SFO - SYD is a quite strong route for UA and was never in danger of being dropped.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 66):
I put SFO-NGO first over SFO-CAN because it's shorter and essentially the same fare as CAN

The main reason UA started NGO originally was because they picked up the Toyota contract. There is no reason they will start the route now. As for CAN, It is a good alternative to HKG. New airport, don't need to deal with the border crossing and time.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: icanfly
Posted 2012-11-12 11:22:23 and read 3343 times.

Surprised SYD-IAH hasn't been mentioned. My signature says it all!

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: BD338
Posted 2012-11-12 11:36:41 and read 3347 times.

Quoting HUYfan (Reply 31):
There must be room for UA on ORD-MAN!?

The AA service, by all accounts, has a fantastic yield.

probably has a fantastic yield precisely because UA aren't on the route! Is there enough demand for 2 services and still make money?

Off the wall thought...BHX-SFO or BHX-DEN 787 once the BHX runway extension is complete. service in 2015?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mogandoCI
Posted 2012-11-12 11:41:38 and read 3345 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 66):
SFO-SYD was on the ropes until QF dropped it. LAX-OZ is massive and despite the TBIT issues, the majority of connecting traffic chooses LAX over SFO when going between the US and Australia.

The majority of connecting traffic is through LAX is because that's where QF VA and DL are, not because LAX airport is any superior to SFO.

UA is enjoying a monopoly on SFO-SYD and could easily enjoy the same monopoly on SFO-MEL. UA could do 3 flights :

SFO-SYD
SFO-MEL
LAX-SYD-MEL

and potentially a 4th one :

SFO-BNE

The 787-8/787-9 could easily enable this arrangement in a profitable manner.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-11-12 12:03:50 and read 3330 times.

Quoting legacyins (Reply 70):
SFO - SYD is a quite strong route for UA and was never in danger of being dropped.

It is now, but I heard it was a dumpster-fire post-GFC with QF competing on the route.

Quoting icanfly (Reply 71):
Surprised SYD-IAH hasn't been mentioned. My signature says it all!

Again, I wish! But range is the issue as well as beyond SYD connectivity. Case in point, look at QF's DFW operation. They're able to do the directional routing because they have connectivity in both BNE and SYD. That being said, it's still not optimal.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 73):
The majority of connecting traffic is through LAX is because that's where QF VA and DL are, not because LAX airport is any superior to SFO.

UA is enjoying a monopoly on SFO-SYD and could easily enjoy the same monopoly on SFO-MEL. UA could do 3 flights :

SFO-SYD
SFO-MEL
LAX-SYD-MEL

and potentially a 4th one :

SFO-BNE

The 787-8/787-9 could easily enable this arrangement in a profitable manner.

First of all, the primary reason for adding LAX/SFO-MEL nonstop would be to eliminate the super expensive SYD-MEL tag. Secondly, the LAX/SFO connection discussion is all about local market size and geography and not infrastructure. LAX-Australia is nearly 4x bigger than SFO-Australia and is a better connecting point for the majority of N. America than SFO. On some routes (like HKG), SFO and LAX are roughly the same size, but LAX-Australia is the undisputed O&D leader for AUS/NZ in terms of traffic and route profitability. Lastly, LAX-MEL could carry most of the SFO-MEL market whereas LAX-SFO-MEL would be a significant backtrack, especially with a nonstop option already in the market.

[Edited 2012-11-12 12:04:58]

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-12 12:05:22 and read 3329 times.

Quoting icanfly (Reply 71):
SYD-IAH hasn't been mentioned

I would love to see that, but I think that adding MEL, and then back-filling SYD with the lost MEL capacity would be there first priority.

To be honest, I think that SYD was probably taken off the table when they scrapped plans for IAH-AKL.

Quoting BD338 (Reply 72):
Off the wall thought...BHX-SFO or BHX-DEN 787 once the BHX runway extension is complete. service in 2015?

I think that MAN is a more likely destination if they were to go down that route. SFO-MAN might work, however, so there could be something in what you say.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: B2443
Posted 2012-11-12 12:14:25 and read 3331 times.

Chinese press has been all about CTU-SFO lately. Any truth to this?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-12 12:37:30 and read 3335 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 75):
To be honest, I think that SYD was probably taken off the table when they scrapped plans for IAH-AKL.

Does UA even have an aircraft that can fly the route? I don't think a 787-8 can. Perhaps the A350-900?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-12 12:37:56 and read 3334 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 28):
Can 757s do IAH to Fortaleza, Recfife, or Manaus?
Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 28):
Would also love to see IAH-Johannesburg.

Dont know that IAH-FOR/REC/MAO would work on any plane. Not much local market and the connections are almost all from the East Coast. Thats why ATL-BSB/MAO works. ATL is in the geographic position.

However, IAH-CNF would not be a bad bet. Good yields and decent local market. It wouldnt work daily, but 3x weekly wouldnt be to much.

IAH-JNB doesnt have the local market and almost all US-JNB markets are on the decline. I dont think it would be a good investment.

Realistically, the only expansion I can see going southward from IAH is SCL. A 762 may work on that.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-12 12:40:42 and read 3349 times.

I'd love to see IAH-SYD, but if IAH couldn't even get AKL, which is way more feasible, then IAH-SYD, is very slim to none  . But I would settle for IAH-AKL. I can see it starting after the dust settles with the merger. IAH, being the largest hub, would have the best connections and options to South/Central America and the midwest and east USA. Couple that with NZ connectivity in AKL, and I think it could work.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: david_itl
Posted 2012-11-12 12:44:14 and read 3337 times.

Quoting BD338 (Reply 72):
probably has a fantastic yield precisely because UA aren't on the route! Is there enough demand for 2 services and still make money?

granted that it was BD's longest standing profitable long-haul route out of MAN whilst competing with AA's service (remembering the distinctly odd situation that MAN is one of AA's few year-round services from ORD to Europe) I guess the market is thee for 2 daily services by competing carriers, each making reasonable profits.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-12 12:50:25 and read 3333 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 79):
IAH, being the largest hub, would have the best connections and options to South/Central America and the midwest and east USA.

I dont think the target market is going to be South America. South American is much better accessable through SCL. The only major destination in Central American from the South Pacific is Mexico City.

Not at all saying IAH-AKL wouldnt work, but the target audience is going to be the US and YYZ. Nothing else would be worth going for.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-12 12:51:50 and read 3346 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 78):
Realistically, the only expansion I can see going southward from IAH is SCL. A 762 may work on that.

The 762s are going away, unfortunately. The 763 is the best bet, but unlike the 762, the 2-class config. will be more dense, as compared to the 762. But I guess that wouldn't be too much of a problem, I guess, since I see the flight being a Y-heavy flight. I don't know anything about SCL so I'm just putting together things I have heard on a.net. I presume there would be a huge cargo demand as well since UA does awesome on cargo. I know this because my mom is a gate agent and she says Colombia and Ecuador flights are almost always weight restricted due to cargo. Could IAH-BOG/UIO become 757 or 763 routes?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-11-12 12:54:10 and read 3336 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 81):
The only major destination in Central American from the South Pacific is Mexico City.

Mexico is part of North America, not Central America.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-12 12:59:32 and read 3336 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 79):
I'd love to see IAH-SYD, but if IAH couldn't even get AKL, which is way more feasible, then IAH-SYD, is very slim to none

Why "way more feasible"? Because the aircraft can actually get there before flaming out over the Pacific Ocean? If so, I'd say the chances of IAH-SYD are none.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 83):
Mexico is part of North America, not Central America.

I'm not one to argue technicalities , but this definition varies by country.

But in a US geography class, one is indeed taught that Mexico is part of North America.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-11-12 13:10:33 and read 3364 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 60):
I think you'll find that LAX-CDG is the longest route a UA 763ER has ever operated.

763s have operated quite a few routes longer than LAX-CDG. For example, Aeroflot used the 763 on LAX-SVO for several years before changing to the A332. AC still uses the 763 on YYZ-TLV. DL used the 763 on JFK-AMM before dropping the route last year.

LAX-CDG 4927 nm
LAX-SVO 5281 nm
YYZ-TLV 5030 nm
JFK-AMM 4986 nm

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RDH3E
Posted 2012-11-12 13:18:04 and read 3354 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 84):
But in a US geography class, one is indeed taught that Mexico is part of North America.

They are signatory to NAFTA...

But seriously, does anyone think UA actually has enough aircraft for expansion? I'm going to keep asking until I get a serious answer. I don't see any slack in the fleet to spare 1/2 shells for what you guys are suggesting.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mogandoCI
Posted 2012-11-12 13:23:14 and read 3362 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 74):
First of all, the primary reason for adding LAX/SFO-MEL nonstop would be to eliminate the super expensive SYD-MEL tag. Secondly, the LAX/SFO connection discussion is all about local market size and geography and not infrastructure. LAX-Australia is nearly 4x bigger than SFO-Australia and is a better connecting point for the majority of N. America than SFO. On some routes (like HKG), SFO and LAX are roughly the same size, but LAX-Australia is the undisputed O&D leader for AUS/NZ in terms of traffic and route profitability. Lastly, LAX-MEL could carry most of the SFO-MEL market whereas LAX-SFO-MEL would be a significant backtrack, especially with a nonstop option already in the market.

LAX is larger, but also more entrenched with oneworld on both ends (versus SFO where at least UA has an edge one side). SFO-MEL would require a smaller plane, but yields should be much better than a price war with QF and VA. Being the only nonstop around town is a major selling point.

UA can send their pax either (NZ) LAX-AKL-MEL or LAX-SFO-MEL, which are only 2.8% and 3.4% longer than the nonstop respectively - barely a detour.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-12 13:26:39 and read 3366 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 84):
Why "way more feasible"? Because the aircraft can actually get there before flaming out over the Pacific Ocean? If so, I'd say the chances of IAH-SYD are none.

Star hub to star hub, AKL is pretty much Stars gateway to almost all of Australia and Oceana if you are flying from the Americas, and the fact that ANZ codeshares on almost every UA flight from IAH-LAX. And the cherry on top, the fact that it was a proposed route and was even announced to the public makes the chances of starting better than IAH-SYD.   

I said IAH-SYD has a very slim chance because I am an opitimist.  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RAGAZZO777
Posted 2012-11-12 13:26:44 and read 3365 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 81):
The only major destination in Central American from the South Pacific is Mexico City.

Mexico City is most definitely NOT in Central America. On the other hand, Cancún is, geographically, in Central America.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: miaskies
Posted 2012-11-12 13:33:11 and read 3409 times.

Eh.... the return of SFO-MIA? no reason why UA cannot fly 2 daily (319/73G/738/739ER) on this route. AA has such a monopoly on this route with 3 daily (1 763ER, 2 752). LAX, different story AA is running up to 8 daily with two of those flights being on 772 and two other flights on 763ER.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: BD338
Posted 2012-11-12 14:40:42 and read 3350 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 80):
Quoting BD338 (Reply 72):
probably has a fantastic yield precisely because UA aren't on the route! Is there enough demand for 2 services and still make money?

granted that it was BD's longest standing profitable long-haul route out of MAN whilst competing with AA's service (remembering the distinctly odd situation that MAN is one of AA's few year-round services from ORD to Europe) I guess the market is thee for 2 daily services by competing carriers, each making reasonable profits.

ah, yes, I'd forgotten about BD on that route. Maybe there is something in it for 2.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-12 14:51:49 and read 3362 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 77):
Does UA even have an aircraft that can fly the route?

This is a seemingly never ending discussion on the Australian Aviation threads. There isn't a consensus on whether the 787 can fly DFW-SYD or not (in the context of QF) - it seems to depend on who you ask and on what day!

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-12 15:09:09 and read 3354 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 92):
This is a seemingly never ending discussion on the Australian Aviation threads. There isn't a consensus on whether the 787 can fly DFW-SYD or not (in the context of QF) - it seems to depend on who you ask and on what day!

Damn. I like things to be black-and-white!!

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: kordcj
Posted 2012-11-12 15:42:50 and read 3348 times.

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 89):
Mexico City is most definitely NOT in Central America. On the other hand, Cancún is, geographically, in Central America.

Isn't all of "Central America" considered to be part of North America? That's what I was taught in grade school.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-12 15:52:53 and read 3343 times.

Quoting kordcj (Reply 94):
Isn't all of "Central America" considered to be part of North America? That's what I was taught in grade school.

There's actually disagreement according to where you are from, which I wasn't aware of until recently.

I believe Europeans generally think of North America as the US and Canada (or at least of North Americans as being only Americans and Canadians).

I think by a strict geographic definition, all of Mexico is on the North American plate (as is most of Cuba, the Bahamas, and other parts of the Caribbean). Culturally, of course, Mexico is not considered to be "North American." Central America is an isthmus not located on either the South American or North American plate and is considered a "subcontinent."

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2012-11-12 16:01:19 and read 3362 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 95):

When I was at school in the UK I was taught that North America was everything from Panama north, while South America was everything south of the canal.

In Australia I have come to understand North America as the USA and Canada, and the bit in the middle as Central America.

To be honest I think that this is another "is Turkey part of Europe or Middle East" question, nobody will ever agree!

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-11-12 16:04:42 and read 3363 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 78):
Thats why ATL-BSB/MAO works. ATL is in the geographic position.

ATLMAO doesn't work and isn't flown. Not only are these secondary markets East Coast-centric, they are Florida-centric outside of BSB/CNF.

MAO has the slight advantage over other secondary markets, however, because it's somewhat popular with Americans (comparatively). While European tourists to northern Brazil flock to the beaches, American tourists to northern Brazil prefer the Amazon region.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-12 17:08:13 and read 3345 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):
When I was at school in the UK I was taught that North America was everything from Panama north, while South America was everything south of the canal.

In the US, we are taught that everything from Panama, from its Colombian border, all the way up to northern Canada, including the Caribbean, is North America, at least politically. If you learned by tectonic plates, then I don't know what to tell you.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):
To be honest I think that this is another "is Turkey part of Europe or Middle East" question, nobody will ever agree!

I just say both! 

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: PHX Flyer
Posted 2012-11-12 17:44:15 and read 3321 times.

I would also like to see EWR-CGN return in a year or two.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-11-12 17:56:54 and read 3333 times.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 87):
LAX is larger, but also more entrenched with oneworld on both ends (versus SFO where at least UA has an edge one side). SFO-MEL would require a smaller plane, but yields should be much better than a price war with QF and VA. Being the only nonstop around town is a major selling point.

Being the only nonstop is great, but when the local market is only 40 PDEW vs. a 200 PDEW market in LAX-MEL, it's a little hard to justify, especially when you have a hub in both cities. Couple that with MEL-US being a little north of 600 PDEW IIRC and you're missing a third of the market. I realize SFO isn't much of a back-track, but you'll only get low-yield filler and none of the F/J traffic out of LAX. Even with all the competition in LAX, LAX-SYD usually outperforms SFO-SYD for UA.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 87):
UA can send their pax either (NZ) LAX-AKL-MEL or LAX-SFO-MEL, which are only 2.8% and 3.4% longer than the nonstop respectively - barely a detour.

Yeah, since UA and NZ have SUCH a cozy relationship   

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: dsuairptman
Posted 2012-11-12 17:57:16 and read 3334 times.

Will the Q400's be returning to IAH? If so it would be nice to see upgrades to GPT

It would also be nice to see UA expand it's route map form GPT by adding IAD/ORD/EWR or some combination there of.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-11-13 03:54:05 and read 3340 times.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 64):

Well the Russian VISA problem is sad to read, but all too true. I am sitting on my sofa this morning because the Russian consulate (who used to require 5 biz days to get your VISA) now wants 15+ because of Sandy!

So I have to do a telecon vs flying GF from IAD. Not good for my business, or United's.

I have flown the DME flight twice this year, the aircraft was full. But UA really stopped it due to low yields, due to VISA issues?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RDH3E
Posted 2012-11-13 06:57:27 and read 3274 times.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 102):
But UA really stopped it due to low yields, due to VISA issues?

That's what I've been led to believe, although the VISA issues are really just a contributing factor. The market ran over 80% YTD before it was cancelled which would tell me the yields were probably garbage.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mogandoCI
Posted 2012-11-13 07:49:20 and read 3266 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 100):
I realize SFO isn't much of a back-track, but you'll only get low-yield filler and none of the F/J traffic out of LAX. Even with all the competition in LAX, LAX-SYD usually outperforms SFO-SYD for UA.

This is purely anecdotal, but i'm booked on LAX-SYD-MEL outbound and SYD-SFO inbound around thanksgiving, and judging from the seatmaps, both look equally filled in the front cabins. Is your assertion of LAX outperforming SFO based on data or speculation ?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-13 07:50:38 and read 3268 times.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 103):
That's what I've been led to believe, although the VISA issues are really just a contributing factor. The market ran over 80% YTD before it was cancelled which would tell me the yields were probably garbage.

It's hard to believe UA would reenter DME in the near future, even from EWR, after just cancelling the route. One would've thought that UA would've just moved it to EWR to begin with and swallowed losses for a couple of years if that was the game plan.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Tdan
Posted 2012-11-13 08:18:56 and read 3245 times.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 104):
This is purely anecdotal, but i'm booked on LAX-SYD-MEL outbound and SYD-SFO inbound around thanksgiving, and judging from the seatmaps, both look equally filled in the front cabins. Is your assertion of LAX outperforming SFO based on data or speculation ?

'Outperform' does not mean more full than the other. I was referring to profitability based on what I've heard.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-13 08:23:57 and read 3261 times.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 106):
'Outperform' does not mean more full than the other. I was referring to profitability based on what I've heard.

Ive heard the same thing. Despite having no competition in SFO-SYD, LAX-SYD still does better.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-11-13 08:30:37 and read 3255 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 78):
Thats why ATL-BSB/MAO works.

Did DL drop MAO?

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):
When I was at school in the UK I was taught that North America was everything from Panama north, while South America was everything south of the canal.

Living in Central America....the above is correct. Everything north of the canal is on the North American continent. Where the line is drawn with regards to the Caribbean islands I do not know.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-13 08:42:14 and read 3245 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 108):
Did DL drop MAO?

Yes, I mispoke. I meant only BSB.

My point is still the same. ATL would have an easier time supported routes that are heavy O&D from the East Coast due soley to its geographic poisition.

If UA is going to go after another Brazil route from IAH, it needs to be CNF.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: speedbird0125
Posted 2012-11-13 08:44:39 and read 3259 times.

What about IAH-PEK, IAH-HKG, IAH-ICN?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-13 09:19:33 and read 3276 times.

Quoting speedbird0125 (Reply 110):
What about IAH-PEK, IAH-HKG, IAH-ICN?

IAH-HKG is a measly 20 PDEW and IAH is not in a good geographic position to serve connections from it. Its a non-starter.

IAH-China is a market that should be served at some point and IAH-PEK may be the way to go. Given the relationship between UA and CA and the market size of IAH-China (which could fill 1/2 of a 787) this may be the way to go. Connections wouldnt be hard to come either.

IAH-ICN is not a big local market either. If UA and OZ could become close to the degree DL and KE are, maybe. But it wont be for the O&D. Heck, AUS-ICN is not much smaller than IAH-ICN and DFW-ICN is well over double the size of both. DFW-ICN is the only 100+ PDEW Texas-Asia local market.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-11-13 09:57:58 and read 3293 times.

IAH-SCL 788
SFO-CAN 788
EWR-VIE 763

Quoting neveragain (Reply 105):

It's hard to believe UA would reenter DME in the near future, even from EWR, after just cancelling the route. One would've thought that UA would've just moved it to EWR to begin with and swallowed losses for a couple of years if that was the game plan.

We don't know for sure if IAD-DME was profitable or not. As said, EWR doesn't have a firm population of Russians either. They are all out on Long Island. LOT which operated EWR and JFK side by side for years is moving it's ops to JFK (and yet NJ has a huge polish population.) EWR-FCO is suspended for the winter (flown strictly from IAD) and most probably viewed that as a shocker as well.

Quoting miaskies (Reply 90):
Eh.... the return of SFO-MIA? no reason why UA cannot fly 2 daily (319/73G/738/739ER) on this route. AA has such a monopoly on this route with 3 daily (1 763ER, 2 752). LAX, different story AA is running up to 8 daily with two of those flights being on 772 and two other flights on 763ER.

Would love to see this. I'm thinking:
SFO-MIA 320

In addition:
SFO-TPA 738
SFO-ATL 320
SFO-CLT 738

Some holes missing from the SFO network. Hope they cover it.

Whoever brought up BOS-LHR with a 757, it's an interesting idea. UA flew the route up until 9/11 with a 763 alongside EWR with a 777.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: CODC10
Posted 2012-11-13 10:27:07 and read 3265 times.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 112):
We don't know for sure if IAD-DME was profitable or not.

Considering how poorly (in relative terms) the Atlantic is performing lately, it is hard to believe that UA would axe a profitable route. We can't know for sure, but I suspect IAD-DME was a laggard in UA's transatlantic portfolio.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-11-13 10:49:56 and read 3256 times.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 113):

True. Although I'm sure the verdict is still out there if DME was to be better served from EWR. My guess is probably not. DME is just a tough market to crack but I suppose DL has made a consistent run at it.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: neveragain
Posted 2012-11-13 10:53:33 and read 3250 times.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 113):
Considering how poorly (in relative terms) the Atlantic is performing lately, it is hard to believe that UA would axe a profitable route.

Axing a route! My favorite figure of speech on a.net! Must have special significance when it happens at PDX!

But of course I agree.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 112):
SFO-MIA 320
Quoting tommy767 (Reply 112):
SFO-ATL 320

Both flown before, so this would be a return of service to those routes.

MIA ended 2004 (surprisingly, UA never flew twice a day from SFO-MIA in 2000 when much of the MIA long-haul operation was still up and running.)

ATL ended 2008 (the old early morning departure may be difficult to accommodate if the rumors are true and CO is to move to Concourse T)

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 112):
SFO-TPA 738
Quoting tommy767 (Reply 112):
SFO-CLT 738

And neither of these was flown by UA (at least not after 2000). Perhaps TPA was before then.

Am interested to know the rationale for a 738 versus an 320. Is it just the increase in 10 seats in the 738 versus the 320?

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 112):
Whoever brought up BOS-LHR with a 757, it's an interesting idea.

Interesting? Yes. Rationale? Unclear.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2012-11-13 23:59:08 and read 3204 times.

There are a lot of suggested routes that I think are far beyond the capabilities of the airframe.... certainly SIN or MEL aren't likely to do well with the airplane.

Effectively the 787s have about the same range as a 777.

NS

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: klwright69
Posted 2012-11-14 08:16:21 and read 3195 times.

How about some routes that are interesting, but not as sexy as some long haul routes: SFO and LAX to ATL. COS-EWR (like CO did in the olden-olden days).

I doubt LHR-DEN will return anytime soon. It seems like BA is enough, with all their connections through LHR. LH has FRA covered. I don't think DEN-Europe is very high yield.

I think TLV is so successful for UA cause it's through EWR. If anything a third flight may come at some point, but I doubt another gateway to TLV will be added. But I could always be wrong. UA premerger had zero interest in TLV, that's worth noting.

We can only guess why DME was dropped. It was not profitable for whatever reason. In old times CO flew EWR-SCL with the DC10. Would that be neat to see it on the 787? I think Moscow is a tough egg to crack. Long ago CO seriously thought of launching it with the DC10, it never came about.

We can only guess... After 20 years, we really never thought IAH-CDG would go adios!

CO/UA has never been too eager to launch more IAH Asia flights once NRT started. Maybe the 787 is a game changer.

But I think UA is working more on rationalizing their route network first.

I have heard DL does well in Africa. I think UA may add more there at some point.

I doubt UA or any other American carrier will ever serve Saudi Arabia. And I live here in Saudi. It may work with the 787. TW flew to Saudi via CAI, never nonstop. I wish I knew how big the market is. Other than the flag carrier Saudia, There has never been any interest in flying to this country (byt US carriers), for obvious reasons like heavily restricted entry into Saudi.

Anyway, the low hanging fruit is gone. Gone! I don't think we'll see any new long haul routes that are considered risky.
IAH-LOS and DEN-NRT seem very logical and smart routes, flights between large business centers that have competition. I have heard IAH-LOS is doing fine, and will do better once the 787 begins.

[Edited 2012-11-14 08:34:36]

I doubt we'll see CLE Europe-flying anytime soon. Why waste a slot in a European airport on a thin route like that.


[Edited 2012-11-14 09:08:11]

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: PMUA787
Posted 2012-11-14 08:25:43 and read 3185 times.

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 17):
I would say that RDU-SFO is very likely

Unless I didn't get the memo..RDU-SFO nonstop service started in August.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mbm3
Posted 2012-11-14 11:31:59 and read 3176 times.

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 36):
CLE-FRA 752
Quoting neveragain (Reply 37):
4,141mi may be a bit too far for a 757. I believe EWR-TXL is the longest TATL 757 route that has been flown by UA, and it is 3,980mi. CLE-CDG, also flown by CO with a 757, was 3,937mi.

Indeed, my informed sources tell me that the using the 752 in this route is sadly not a practical option and that is why UA is still shipping PAX and cargo to other hubs. Plus, now that there are 767s starting to become available, the awful FIS facilities at KCLE become the larger issue. The airport was close to building something near the old NW gates in C terminal, but that all got shelved when the economy took a dive in 2009. The new control tower is moving along nicely and rumor has it that a new FIS facility may be built in in the old location. Then maybe KCLE can handle more than the charter flight from Cancun and not have to bus people to baggage.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-14 11:37:19 and read 3193 times.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 117):
I doubt we'll see CLE Europe-flying anytime soon. Why waste a slot in a European airport on a thin route like that.

During the last year they operated, CLE-LHR got loads in the 70's and 80's; CLE-CDG got loads about 5 points higher. The loads were competitive with TATL results achieved elsewhere in the CO system.

Why would those loads be a waste out of CLE but acceptable if operated somewhere else?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-11-14 12:11:04 and read 3173 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 115):
And neither of these was flown by UA (at least not after 2000). Perhaps TPA was before then.

I didn't really have a reason of putting 738 over 320, I was just stating that it would be great to see these routes come to fruition. Although SFO is seeing a good amount of 738 influx. RDU-SFO and DCA-SFO are both 738s. 320s are being flown heavily out of IAH and EWR.

TPA-SFO was never flown to my knowledge.

It would be great to see at the very least SFO-ATL. No reason why they can't compete against DL in that market, even if it's a mere 320 or 738.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 115):

Interesting? Yes. Rationale? Unclear.

As said, UA used to fly this route. It's not a priority to bring it back I'm sure. However if there is a lot of back tracking of BOS pax flying to LHR via EWR, then it could make sense. UA isn't about p2p routes anymore other than the FLL, TPA, MCO, and SEA feeder ops.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: klwright69
Posted 2012-11-14 23:55:44 and read 3149 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 120):
Quoting klwright69 (Reply 117):I doubt we'll see CLE Europe-flying anytime soon. Why waste a slot in a European airport on a thin route like that.
During the last year they operated, CLE-LHR got loads in the 70's and 80's; CLE-CDG got loads about 5 points higher. The loads were competitive with TATL results achieved elsewhere in the CO system.

Why would those loads be a waste out of CLE but acceptable if operated somewhere else?

Well, there is no more CLE to Europe service so I guess it didn't work out.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: RDH3E
Posted 2012-11-15 12:36:35 and read 3138 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 120):
Why would those loads be a waste out of CLE but acceptable if operated somewhere else?

Load Factor =/= Profit

Load Factor + Good Yield = Profit I'll leave it to you which part you think was missing.

[Edited 2012-11-15 12:55:33]

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: AirframeAS
Posted 2012-11-15 14:35:17 and read 3142 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):
In Australia I have come to understand North America as the USA and Canada, and the bit in the middle as Central America.

This is what we were taught in school, so this is correct.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-15 15:11:03 and read 3139 times.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 124):

This is what we were taught in school, so this is correct.

Me too. Regardless, I cant figure out why everyone was freaking out when I refered to Mexico as part of Central America.   

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-11-15 15:17:01 and read 3169 times.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 124):

This got WAY off topic. MEXICO IS PART OF NORTH AMERICA.

As for new routes for United, if I fly NY (EWR) to GRU the fair is about $6500 in business round trip. If if fly EWR, IAD to GIG in business (with the stop at GRU) the fare in $3500, round trip. Why? Our corporate travel says it is to compete with AA's and TAM's JFK/GIG non-stops. On UA, the only way to get to the "Marvelous City" is to make one or two stops. Unless you're from the IAH area to get the one United non-stop from the USA to Rio de Janeiro.

The prices are a hard fact. It always costs these amounts when anyone in my office does business in Sao Paulo, and I go too, but I go to Rio first as I live there part time. My ticket has always been near half of theirs. Seems to me that if United put in a NY TO RIO non-stop, they could charge a premium. Can anyone else shine a light on this? Are their any other tag on's that cost less to fly that the non-stop leg?

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2012-11-15 20:41:34 and read 3191 times.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 86):
But seriously, does anyone think UA actually has enough aircraft for expansion? I'm going to keep asking until I get a serious answer. I don't see any slack in the fleet to spare 1/2 shells for what you guys are suggesting.

As always, things could change, but everything I have seen from leadership says that growth will be slowed for the next few years. I think most of the new aircraft will be replacements for retired ac, those in mods, and those getting heavy checks. They have stated that service to some secondary Chinese markets could open, but anybody who thinks UA is going to start new service to 10-20 new destinations internationally, which some have posted on here, is just wishful thinking.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):
To be honest I think that this is another "is Turkey part of Europe or Middle East" question, nobody will ever agree!

Well, there is geography and there is culture. I think Mexico is part of North America geographically, but probably considers themselves closer aligned to Central and South America culturally. Same for Turkey; they share religion and many cultural ties with Middle Eastern nations, but also have a European feel in their cities (I am told). Their language is interesting in that it closely resembles Azerbaijani and other languages of Central Asia. Guess that is a topic for another forum!  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-16 00:33:31 and read 3195 times.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 123):
Load Factor + Good Yield = Profit I'll leave it to you which part you think was missing.

According to unofficial comments from CO staff, the CLE TATL routes were profitable during most of the summer season; but, with the merger coming up, they were not considered strategic to the combined company and were discontinued. The official reason given was that CO "lost" the LHR slot (although several others were acquired) and CDG wasn't any good without the Skyteam connections.

Absent the merger, I believe CO would still be flying CLE-Europe.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-16 07:13:55 and read 3193 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 128):
Absent the merger, I believe CO would still be flying CLE-Europe.

The CLE-Europe market is surprisingly tiny. CVG-Europe is also small but its larger than CLE-Europe.

The entire CLE-Europe O&D market couldnt fill a daily 757. Therefore, any such flight would be hugely dependent on connections. After the merger, with ORD, IAD, and EWR all flying many daily flights to Europe, CLE-Europe would not really be necesary.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: izbtmnhd
Posted 2012-11-16 07:46:59 and read 3173 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 129):

I'm not arguing your point, Cleveland is the smaller of the four UA hub markets you mention, but is there any real data that the NE Ohio-Europe market is "tiny"? Or is it spread out through better connection options at larger hubs?

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 128):

Don't know how to make that checkmark but I agree with your thoughts on CLE-Europe

[Edited 2012-11-16 07:52:00]

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-16 07:49:02 and read 3176 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 129):
The CLE-Europe market is surprisingly tiny. CVG-Europe is also small but its larger than CLE-Europe.

The entire CLE-Europe O&D market couldnt fill a daily 757.

According to the equivalent of Chamber of Commerce data, in 2008 CLE TATL was about 250 originations a day, with a surprisingly large percentage headed for Israel and the Middle East. I don't have current numbers.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-16 19:25:03 and read 3154 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 131):
According to the equivalent of Chamber of Commerce data, in 2008 CLE TATL was about 250 originations a day, with a surprisingly large percentage headed for Israel and the Middle East. I don't have current numbers.

In 2011, the number was not that high. The largest CLE-Atlantic market was LHR and its only 32 PDEW. The second was CDG at 14 PDEW then FCO at 12 PDEW and FRA at 11 PDEW. Everything else was under 9 PDEW.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-11-16 19:29:43 and read 3150 times.

How about restarting:

SJC-ORD
SJC-EWR
SJC-IAD

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: COSPN
Posted 2012-11-16 19:39:13 and read 3154 times.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 126):
This got WAY off topic. MEXICO IS PART OF NORTH AMERICA.

We learned this form the car makers "made in America" does not mean the USA many are made in Canada and Mexico..

the Ford Crown Victoria "americas cop car" has stoped production because the Canadian Dollar is so strong, and the CrownVic factory in St. Catherines Ontario can be put to better use making something everyone wants to buy, not just cops, Taxi companies and a few Grannys..

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Antoniemey
Posted 2012-11-16 23:54:46 and read 3146 times.

Quoting COSPN (Reply 134):
the Ford Crown Victoria "americas cop car" has stoped production because the Canadian Dollar is so strong, and the CrownVic factory in St. Catherines Ontario can be put to better use making something everyone wants to buy, not just cops, Taxi companies and a few Grannys..

The fact that it has antiquated production techniques required to build it and that Ford has been developing a dedicated vehicle for the fleet market has NOTHING to do with it at all...   

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: klwright69
Posted 2012-11-17 06:50:36 and read 3129 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 133):
How about restarting:

SJC-ORD
SJC-EWR
SJC-IAD

Yes, and EWR-SMF and EWR-Oakland.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-11-17 07:01:00 and read 3147 times.

UA was planning on launching SFO-HND, with those plans now changed I guess UA will have some extra International capacity. EWR-ICN?..

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: United_fan
Posted 2012-11-17 07:14:43 and read 3128 times.

A ROC-DEN would be nice on a 752. One can dream  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-17 08:09:07 and read 3123 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 132):
In 2011, the number was not that high. The largest CLE-Atlantic market was LHR and its only 32 PDEW. The second was CDG at 14 PDEW then FCO at 12 PDEW and FRA at 11 PDEW. Everything else was under 9 PDEW.

Thanks for the update. Even allowing for the bleed-off of passengers typically associated with a loss of non-stop service, those are pretty small numbers. I was not aware the economy took that big a toll.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: UnitedTristar
Posted 2012-11-17 08:19:14 and read 3118 times.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 115):
Whoever brought up BOS-LHR with a 757, it's an interesting idea.

Interesting? Yes. Rationale? Unclear.

'twas I who first suggested it, not the most profitable of routes but would definitely be an effective loss leader for corporate business in Boston! With the AA pull down, there is more and more opportunity, whoever this would be a moot point if VS became part of star and A++

-m

  

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: N766UA
Posted 2012-11-17 08:54:36 and read 3126 times.

Quoting izbtmnhd (Reply 130):
Don't know how to make that checkmark but I agree with your thoughts on CLE-Europe

I do too, but I also don't think CLE should ever focus on TATL service. Cleveland's lucky to still have the hub (though it does seem to be earning it, so it's not all luck), and it makes a great domestic connecting point. I'd be quite happy with a "right-sized" domestic hub at CLE.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-17 09:42:29 and read 3118 times.

Quoting N766UA (Reply 141):
I'd be quite happy with a "right-sized" domestic hub at CLE.

"Right-sized" being a little bigger than it is currently???  

The thing about a TATL route is that many cities feel it is essential for bragging purposes in attracting business. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Raleigh feel such service is worth subsidizing. (Did Hartford once offer a subsidy to DL? I forget.) LAXDude's numbers are amazing - I find it very hard to believe that FCO gets more NEO business than FRA, for example.

But UA does seem to be maintaining a substantial presence. It will be interesting to see what the new ALPA agreement does to the 50-seaters, CLE's current mainstay. But I'm getting way off-topic ... so, I'd like to see UA restore:

CLE-SAN. The demand is there and WN's fares aren't that low any more.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2012-11-17 10:31:15 and read 3122 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 142):
CLE-SAN. The demand is there and WN's fares aren't that low any more.

Is this seasonal? I know they fly a 757 occasionally on CLE-PHX. Would be cool to see a 757 on CLE-SAN.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: N766UA
Posted 2012-11-17 11:16:38 and read 3121 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 142):
"Right-sized" being a little bigger than it is currently???

Of course. I'd like to see CLE back where it was 10 years ago, ~250 flights a day, not 180.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 142):
CLE-SAN.

I believe this was already announced as a new seasonal service? Starts in a few weeks I think.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: CALPSAFltSkeds
Posted 2012-11-17 11:17:10 and read 3121 times.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 143):
Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 142):
CLE-SAN. The demand is there and WN's fares aren't that low any more.

Is this seasonal? I know they fly a 757 occasionally on CLE-PHX. Would be cool to see a 757 on CLE-SAN.

Occasionally CLE-SAN is flown over the Christmas Holiday, but the yields are probably a bit low. This route was flown years ago evening westbound, redeye eastbound and did OK. But, when the timing was changed to mean it needed an aircraft allocated to it, the flight was pulled after the Summer peak. I'm always hoping for a CLE-SAN-HNL through flight, AM westbound, connect to GUM at HNL, reydeye HNL-SAN, Morning SAN-CLE. 738 would be just fine.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: HermansCVR580
Posted 2012-11-17 18:19:18 and read 3105 times.

How about mainline service back to MKE maybe to IAH or SFO? We used to have mainline up until 2001. 727's and 757's to ORD        

Did a missed approach on a 737-200 in FC when UAL flew me down to ORD to do my drug test, I was hired on to work the ramp in MKE when ProAir was starting up UAL was doing the handling, but ended up staying where I was at since I figured ProAir was not going to last. But thank you UAL for that fun day   

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2012-11-17 23:23:18 and read 3103 times.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 145):
Occasionally CLE-SAN is flown over the Christmas Holiday, but the yields are probably a bit low.

Fares used to be dirt cheap, thanks to WN; but WN has been raising them along with everybody else. Looking at non-peak days between Christmas and New Years, UA and WN r/t are in the $850-1000 range ( 24-28 cents/nm), with UA actually being cheapest via ORD. And, yes, UA is operating a 320 on the route for about 2 weeks around Christmas.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: Kiwinlondon
Posted 2012-11-18 07:02:00 and read 3101 times.

Quoting: Viscount724 How much service does a country with a population about the same as metro PHX need? If it was considered a profitable market by other carriers, I'm sure they would be operating. The fact that they aren't seems to indicate they have more profitable ways to use their aircraft.

Actually AKL was historically served by NZ/PA/UA and CO for many years all flying between AKL-HNL-LAX/SFO. In fact PA had 2 flights a day a few days a week for some years. I don't know the LF etc however there must have at one time been the market. If it existed before perhaps it can be created again?

Kiwinlondon

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: bartond
Posted 2012-11-19 07:08:44 and read 3079 times.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 3):
I'd like to see some New Zealand service. Considering that NZ has a monopoly (why?!) on those routes to the U.S; I'm not holding my breath.

Yep, Air New Zealand has this one well covered but also, if you fly them one time you'll be hooked and wouldn't dream of flying UA on an LAX/SFO-AKL flight. Their level of service far exceeds anything UA is doing.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: mbm3
Posted 2012-11-19 10:27:07 and read 3069 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 128):
According to unofficial comments from CO staff, the CLE TATL routes were profitable during most of the summer season; but, with the merger coming up, they were not considered strategic to the combined company and were discontinued. The official reason given was that CO "lost" the LHR slot (although several others were acquired) and CDG wasn't any good without the Skyteam connections.

Absent the merger, I believe CO would still be flying CLE-Europe.

According to my sources, as you mentioned earlier in the thread, the routes did pretty well for themselves but did not make a lot of sense with the change to Star Alliance. Combine this issue with a lack of appropriate equipment, an awful economy and a big merger makes a compelling reason not to restart anything TATL from CLE. Contrary to popular opinion from the many underinformed armchair CEOs, that does not mean that it is not feasible or in the plans for the future.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: capitalflyer
Posted 2012-11-26 19:14:21 and read 2719 times.

Far less glamorous than all these international options is the probable continued shift of regional flying from EWR to IAD (although this will create opportunities for more profitable routes at EWR). I would expect IAD to pick up some SCASD grant and other routes to smaller destinations east of the Mississippi like SBN, FWA, GRR, ITH, etc.

Topic: RE: Likely New United Routes Over The Next Year Or So?
Username: gigneil
Posted 2012-11-26 19:17:42 and read 2716 times.

I always said that I thought that would happen... reduce a crush-packed EWR and reroute connecting flows over IAD. Then I promptly forgot about the East Coast entirely when I moved to SFO.  

Has that been happening? Gauge increases from IAD to domestic sites, sure, they have more 737s now. But new or expanded domestic routes?

We've clearly been benefiting from the availability of domestic mainline aircraft in the new carrier here at SFO...

NS


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