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Topic: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: KochamLOT
Posted 2012-11-30 18:34:57 and read 10166 times.

Sukhoi worked with many partners on this aircraft and it seems to have the ingredients for a highly successful regional jet competing with the likes of Embraer and its E-jets and the C-series that has not even been built or tested yet.
It may be that the accident in Indonesia has something to do with it...but that cannot be the only explanation.

The Superjet undercuts the pricetag of all of its competitors by a good sum while offering very comparable if not better performance. So why then is there such incredible industry skepticism? If Sukhoi, having worked with all other big names from not other than just Russia find it so difficult to make this puppy sell, then how does Comac plan to do any better!? Comac's are not exactly competing with the Superjet perhaps, however...its a very similar situation.

Armavia, Aeroflot, Interjet and a few others have ordered the 100... but if no more orders come about what would that mean for Sukhoi?

Its too bad because the plane itself looks like a great product and would fit nicely in the large regional jet segment with seating of at least 100 with the opportunity to expand the line..

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2012-11-30 20:21:08 and read 10019 times.

In the western worlds eyes,
Russian planes=unsafe and unreliable
Even though time has proven that they are just as safe and reliable, if not more, as their western counterparts.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: mham001
Posted 2012-11-30 20:57:54 and read 9933 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):
Even though time has proven that they are just as safe and reliable, if not more, as their western counterparts.

Do you know where one might find that proof?

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: FSXJunkie
Posted 2012-11-30 21:27:09 and read 9861 times.

I don't think it's so much skepticism of reliability as it is the stereotype in the west that Russian aircraft are more primitive and lackluster in features and amenities compared to American/European aircraft.

In reality Russian aircraft are on par with the west unfortunately a combination of outdated prejudices and monopolization of western markets by Boeing and Airbus leaves Tupolev and Sukhoi with very little room for penetration.

In a world without lingering Cold War inspired prejudices, I'm certain that Russian designs would be valued in a number of western airlines, but alas that's not the case.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-11-30 21:47:01 and read 9827 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):
Even though time has proven that they are just as safe and reliable, if not more, as their western counterparts.

If they were competitive, airlines would buy them, but they're not. Same goes for Chinese planes. If Brazil can sell hundreds of planes to the "West," there's no reason China/Russia can't.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: timpdx
Posted 2012-11-30 21:52:34 and read 9799 times.

It's far more complex than just having amenities and such. It has a ton to do with "can I get X part tomorrow morning" or "is there a resale value for this in 8 years." This airframe really is not competing in the A vs B market. It competes in the Embraer, Bombardier, Mitsubishi RJ space, where, sales across the board are not exactly robust at the moment.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: BMI727
Posted 2012-11-30 22:10:17 and read 9760 times.

Quoting FSXJunkie (Reply 3):
In reality Russian aircraft are on par with the west unfortunately a combination of outdated prejudices and monopolization of western markets by Boeing and Airbus leaves Tupolev and Sukhoi with very little room for penetration.

Not in terms of service and support. They just don't have the infrastructure others do and that will make sales harder to come by.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):

In the western worlds eyes,
Russian planes=unsafe and unreliable

If Skywest, Republic, or somebody bought a bunch of Superjets chances are only a small number of passengers would ever notice that it's Russian and they'd probably notice too late to do anything about it. The rest of the passengers would never notice at all.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: lollomz
Posted 2012-11-30 22:53:26 and read 9669 times.

I think the SSJ will sell better when Interjet, the first western customer, will put it in service. Fingers crossed!

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: N505FX
Posted 2012-11-30 23:01:17 and read 9645 times.

Quoting FSXJunkie (Reply 3):
In a world without lingering Cold War inspired prejudices, I'm certain that Russian designs would be valued in a number of western airlines, but alas that's not the case.

That seems strange, because not even Aeroflot or S7 prefer Russian designs over "western" designs...so the prejudice seems to be alive and well in behind the iron curtain as well.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: PanAm_DC10
Posted 2012-11-30 23:09:16 and read 9615 times.

It's not just Russian as SuperJet International is a joint venture with Alenia Aermacchi.

Quoting lollomz (Reply 7):
I think the SSJ will sell better when Interjet, the first western customer, will put it in service. Fingers crossed!

Hopefully that is the case given the carrier just firmed 10 more options

Regards

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: mandala499
Posted 2012-12-01 03:16:23 and read 9323 times.

Quoting KochamLOT (Thread starter):
So why then is there such incredible industry skepticism? If Sukhoi, having worked with all other big names from not other than just Russia find it so difficult to make this puppy sell, then how does Comac plan to do any better!?

Financing? And oh... Refinancing   
Delivery times? Delivery Slots
Spare parts support in terms of rapid AOG support?
Resale value?
Both of the last two nicely put in:

Quoting timpdx (Reply 5):
It's far more complex than just having amenities and such. It has a ton to do with "can I get X part tomorrow morning" or "is there a resale value for this in 8 years."

And then...

Quoting timpdx (Reply 5):
It competes in the Embraer, Bombardier, Mitsubishi RJ space, where, sales across the board are not exactly robust at the moment.

Can Sukhoi provide reliable cost projections for its aircraft? No. I talked to the seller and they said it's not to be provided... whether that's a Sukhoi policy or not, I don't know.
Hey, even Embraer have difficulty in providing DOC projections for some countries... Can Sukhoi?
All they can provide is DOC projections with assumptions which do not suit some markets. So, it is a bit of a leap of faith to order it.

If I had to chose between SSJ100 and an A319/73G with a severe discount, I might choose the latter because I can get the cost projections and base it on that, even if the SSJ100 might end up being better. If I can't get those projections, and I have to chose betwen SSJ100 and E190... which way would I go? Well, who can provide me with projections based on assumptions that are nearer to my requirements...

Mandala499

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: Aquila3
Posted 2012-12-01 04:24:44 and read 9196 times.

I believe the SSJ should be seen as a start point for the re-born Russian Aviation Industry (with a little bit of Italy I might say!) and not an arrive point. If they can sell well outside EU and US, they can build their support chain and gain credibility.
Of course, as you have seen the way is still long, but the product looks good and gives some hope for the future in these uncertain times.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: Giancavia
Posted 2012-12-01 04:37:23 and read 9164 times.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 2):
Do you know where one might find that proof?

Aviation safety network has a nice little database that proves his point. Russian aircraft are no worse built then western planes, The fact they operate into absolute ****hole airports and in much worse conditions then most western planes plays a big part in their losses.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: csavel
Posted 2012-12-01 06:38:22 and read 8739 times.

I don't think people would care about it being a Russian jet as others have said, I doubt people would notice. I told my wife that when Interjet starts flying teh SU-100, I am going to take a little trip just to fly it,. She isn't an aviation nut - she didn't get it.

Perhaps it is a great design, but only 11 frames have been built. I don't know but that seems an inordinately slow pace. I do wonder not about the design, but the manufacturing capability.

Reliability supposedly so far is not up to Western standards.
Note this Wikipedia article. Yeah I know it is Wikipedia, but before you flame me, they do cite original sources, so forget about the wiki and go to the original sources.

Vyedemosti (Russian, but translation is enough so that it is possible to get gist. My Russian hasn't been used since University.) Maybe a native speaker can give us summary?

Superjet undergoing fleet-wide repairs - Moscow Times. True the A-380 certainly had their infamous teething problems, but since they are a new player, they simply have to be better. Airbus started out slowly. It wasn't until Eastern took a chance that it flowered. Perhaps Interjet can be that for the Superjet. Hope so.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: Aquila3
Posted 2012-12-01 07:49:25 and read 7925 times.

Quoting csavel (Reply 13):
I do wonder not about the design, but the manufacturing capability.

This seems to be a problem of most modern designs. Take a 380 or a 787 as an example, if you like.

Quoting csavel (Reply 13):
Reliability supposedly so far is not up to Western standards.

Again, I cannot put out reliable numbers (what an horror for an engineer) but my first impression is that if the standard is set from the abovementioned programs in their early years, well ....

Anyway you may have hit the nail on the head. Together with a reliable service, manufacturing will have to prove reliable in order to generate good sales.

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: art
Posted 2012-12-01 08:58:52 and read 7111 times.

Quoting lollomz (Reply 7):
I think the SSJ will sell better when Interjet, the first western customer, will put it in service. Fingers crossed!

That might be a make or break operator. If the first western operator has low reliability figures SSJ will be viewed as an aircraft that is demonstrably unreliable and I guess a lot of the potential western customers would dismiss it as a possible choice.

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 14):
Quoting csavel (Reply 13):
I do wonder not about the design, but the manufacturing capability.

This seems to be a problem of most modern designs. Take a 380 or a 787 as an example, if you like.

787's (that don't need travelled work or mods done) are not presenting major manufacturing problems, are they? A380 production problems may be linked to a major design mistake (French and German CATIA mismatch).

It will be interesting to see how many production problems Bomardier and Airbus encounter with the C series and the A350. Perhaps no more than in the past?

Anyone got any ideas why Sukhoi has such a low production rate?

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: mandala499
Posted 2012-12-01 09:30:25 and read 6730 times.

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 11):

I believe the SSJ should be seen as a start point for the re-born Russian Aviation Industry (with a little bit of Italy I might say!) and not an arrive point. If they can sell well outside EU and US, they can build their support chain and gain credibility.

Yes... this is the first Russian jetliner with western style support structure in mind

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 11):
I believe the SSJ should be seen as a start point for the re-born Russian Aviation Industry (with a little bit of Italy I might say!) and not an arrive point.

Yes... the guys at Ms-21 program says, while the rivalry goes between the 2 programs, they did admit, they needed the SSJ program to succeed if the Ms-21 is going to be a success...

Quoting art (Reply 15):
Anyone got any ideas why Sukhoi has such a low production rate?

Dunno... but it's a putting off factor for some airlines off from buying it...

Topic: RE: Future Of The Sukhoi Superjet..
Username: mham001
Posted 2012-12-01 10:00:07 and read 6389 times.

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 12):
Aviation safety network has a nice little database that proves his point.


I am not finding that there. Fact is, Russian civilian manufacturers are delivering less than 10 civilian airplanes per year, hardly enough for meaningful statistical analysis. Furthermore, looking at hull losses/planes delivered (currently produced), it's not even close with generally at least twice the hull loss rate. I and all the hype could be wrong, but nobody has provided any proof whatsoever of Russian safety parity.

Boeing has a good spreadsheet on the subject which unfortunately does not include Russian aircraft. 'Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents' pg 21.

[Edited 2012-12-01 10:02:55]


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