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Topic: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-11-29 12:22:46 and read 4207 times.

Hello everyone

What are the chances of AS coming to CLT. The reason I bring this up is because PHL has AS and they seem to be doing well against US. ( I understand PHL has a bigger population). They shouldn't have any problem filling up a 738 or 737.

I believe with all the connecting opportunities I think they could support a flight to SEA, alot of people would connect to get to the west coast Alaska and Hawaii

Ill defiantly fly them to LAS,SEA,HNL

[Edited 2012-11-29 12:40:33]

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: spiritair97
Posted 2012-11-29 12:30:04 and read 4179 times.

With connections on the SEA side, I don't see why they couldn't make a daily SEA 737 work.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-11-29 12:42:16 and read 4132 times.

Never say never but I doubt it. CLT is a fairly over served market. Given the local o&d size US serves the city very well.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-11-29 12:51:45 and read 4102 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 2):

My only problem with US is there so d*** expensive. That's why I always try to fly AirTran or JetBlue

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: PMUA787
Posted 2012-11-29 12:52:21 and read 4090 times.

RDU would make a better choice for AS considering there is no existing n/s service. Also the tech heavy RTP nearby wouldn't hurt either.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-29 12:55:40 and read 4084 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 2):
Given the local o&d size US serves the city very well.

I certainly agree in general, but US' service to the pacific northwest is all but nonexistent, so there might be some room. I'd say we'll see AS in CLT before we see, for instance, NK (which would serve much better-served parts of the country), but I don't know that we will see either very soon.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: threeifbyair
Posted 2012-11-29 13:14:58 and read 3984 times.

Bear in mind that AS will add 9 739ERs in 2013 while returning 3 73Gs and 3 734s, for a net gain of only 3 frames.

SAN-LIH, SAN-BOS, and SEA-SLC (2x) have already been announced for next year. That consumes much of the new capacity right there.

In the new station category (ex-SEA), CLT, RDU, PIT, IND, TPA, and MSY have all been floated as possible destinations in previous discussions. The primary disadvantage of CLT is the existing US competition. None of the other 5 cities have nonstops from SEA.

I think IND is most likely, as the others are transcons or near-transcons and consume almost an entire aircraft day. PIT would be my second guess, with RDU/CLT 3rd. I can't see AS serving both NC cities, at least initially.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-11-29 13:20:41 and read 3953 times.

I wouldn't hold my breath. With the small size of the CLT-SEA market and the current 2x daily capacity being offered in the low season, there's not really much opportunity for AS, especially considering US itself can offer similar connections out PHX which AS could out of SEA. There's also little indication AS is interested in serving long, thin routes east of the Mississippi.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: srbmod
Posted 2012-11-29 13:28:18 and read 3917 times.

I don't see it happening. You're more likely to see them codeshare on DL flights from CLT to ATL instead.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-11-29 13:29:58 and read 3917 times.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 6):

Remember PIT can barley support a flight to LAX on a A319 bear in mine SEA, slim chance

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-11-29 13:41:57 and read 3871 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 9):
Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 6):

Remember PIT can barley support a flight to LAX on a A319 bear in mine SEA, slim chance

...yet you purport that Charlotte, a smaller city with competition on the route no less, has a greater chance of getting service from AS? Not sure I follow your logic.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: PITrules
Posted 2012-11-29 13:42:48 and read 3865 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 9):

Remember PIT can barley support a flight to LAX on a A319 bear in mine SEA, slim chance

Timing for connections would mean everything. The only thing UA's PIT-LAX connects to is SYD/MEL. But if AS allows for connections to Hawaii, Asia (via DL code share), BC, Alaska, then it might work, at least seasonally.

I'd still be surprised to see AS in PIT, but the chances are greater than CLT.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-11-29 13:55:32 and read 3818 times.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 6):
I can't see AS serving both NC cities, at least initially.

They serve AUS, SAT and DFW; STL and MCI; FLL and MCO; and TUS and PHX. I don't see why it wouldn't be viable for them to serve each NC city, if AS's leadership deems them each to be good markets.

I'd like to see SJC-RDU for the high tech traffic also. However, if AS couldn't make SJC-AUS work then I'm not holding my breath.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-29 14:02:30 and read 3775 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 7):
especially considering US itself can offer similar connections out PHX which AS could out of SEA.

Can they? Of the 35 or so destinations served by AS/QX for which SEA would be a sensible connecting point, US serves only about ten, and often at much lower frequency.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-11-29 14:19:48 and read 3728 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 12):
They serve AUS, SAT and DFW; STL and MCI; FLL and MCO; and TUS and PHX. I don't see why it wouldn't be viable for them to serve each NC city, if AS's leadership deems them each to be good markets

Thats a little bit of apples and oranges.

FLL, MCO, DFW, and PHX are a much more massive in terms of market size and O&D to SEA than either RDU or CLT.

That said, both RDU and CLT could probably support a daily from AS.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-11-29 14:24:27 and read 3715 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 13):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 7):
especially considering US itself can offer similar connections out PHX which AS could out of SEA.

Can they? Of the 35 or so destinations served by AS/QX for which SEA would be a sensible connecting point, US serves only about ten, and often at much lower frequency.

For the purposes defined by the OP, PHX acts as a connecting point to the West Coast and Hawaii just as well as SEA. In any case, I don't see the likes of LWS, MSO and EAT being large feeder spokes on such a route.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2012-11-29 14:59:23 and read 3627 times.

CLT is the third biggest hub in the US, but only the 11th busiest airport. US Airways overserves the airport due to the massive hub. US controls the market and US' 2-3 daily flights on SEA-CLT is already larger than the O/D between the cities, so I don't see AS making much of a profit from the market.

CLT is a much busier airport than PHL despite Charlotte metro area being 1/3rd the size. That shows US' hub effect. SEA-PHL on US has similar frequency but it is a bigger market.

[Edited 2012-11-29 15:01:25]

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Gunsontheroof
Posted 2012-11-29 15:43:06 and read 3567 times.

CLT will probably end up in the AS network someday, but I don't think it's high on their list. The competition with US isn't a deal-breaker, but it doesn't help the near-term prospects given the market size. I wouldn't be surprised if AS took a crack at RDU before CLT, but I suspect we'll see them in TPA, DTW or CLE well before we see them in North Carolina...

Then again, they launched SEA-SAT. Throws from left-field aren't out of the question!

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-29 18:12:44 and read 3394 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 15):
In any case, I don't see the likes of LWS, MSO and EAT being large feeder spokes on such a route.

No, of course not. But the likes of PDX, GEG, BOI and ANC are all better served via SEA, and they are much larger markets.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-11-29 18:53:40 and read 3326 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 18):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 15):
In any case, I don't see the likes of LWS, MSO and EAT being large feeder spokes on such a route.

No, of course not. But the likes of PDX, GEG, BOI and ANC are all better served via SEA, and they are much larger markets.

Either served non-stop already (PDX, at least seasonally) or well covered between ORD, DEN and SFO via US's extensive code share with UA. Anything is possible in this industry, but unless there's extensive interlining/code sharing between US and AS and they decided to trade frequencies or something, I cannot see AS taking the risk at the moment for what would be a long, thin and competitive route.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-11-29 19:03:27 and read 3296 times.

I think SEA-MSY might be possible

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-29 19:22:44 and read 3267 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 19):
Either served non-stop already (PDX, at least seasonally) or well covered between ORD, DEN and SFO via US's extensive code share with UA.

Of course, that's equally true of every other city east of Dallas that AS flies. You are forgeting the west coast POS traffic who may prefer AS as much as or more than CLT POS prefers US.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: usflyer msp
Posted 2012-11-29 19:34:34 and read 3249 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 21):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 19):
Either served non-stop already (PDX, at least seasonally) or well covered between ORD, DEN and SFO via US's extensive code share with UA.

Of course, that's equally true of every other city east of Dallas that AS flies.

CLT is also significantly smaller than all of those cities so there is less traffic to split up and much lower potential for traffic stimulation. .

Realistically, CLT is a smaller market that does not have particularly strong economic ties to the Pacific NW. AS is not going to waste a plane on such a long, thin, competitive, and strategically unimportant route until they have essentially run out of other options.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-11-29 20:08:56 and read 3201 times.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 22):
CLT is also significantly smaller than all of those cities so there is less traffic to split up and much lower potential for traffic stimulation. .

You beat me to it.

Yes, the other East Coast cities are competitive as well, but they're larger markets, i.e. AS has a much great chance at grabbing their own slice of the pie.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 21):
You are forgeting the west coast POS traffic who may prefer AS as much as or more than CLT POS prefers US.

Absolutely right, AS would have the Western POS locked up, but that's only half of an already small market, just not a very attractive proposition unless, like I said before, they have an extensive code sharing agreement with US.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: wedgetail737
Posted 2012-11-29 22:20:04 and read 3081 times.

I think you'll see AS doing more of the connecting the dots like expanding SAN...and maybe SJC, than expand to additional cities. Many of the cities that AS has decided to serve have partially come from frequent flier requests. I still think if any NC cities were to be served by AS, RDU would come first because of the type of industry Seattle and Raleigh/Durham share.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 20):
I think SEA-MSY might be possible

I think MSY is a far-better possibility than any of the NC cities at this point. Perhaps we'll see TPA also.

Regionally, I'm holding out the prospects for SEA-MRY. AS...what are you waiting for???

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2012-11-30 05:01:58 and read 3050 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 12):
However, if AS couldn't make SJC-AUS work then I'm not holding my breath.

I was as surprised as anyone when this didn't work. With AA having served it for years, did some of the traffic simply move through DFW when AA discontinued the non-stop?

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-30 05:29:02 and read 3028 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 23):
AS would have the Western POS locked up, but that's only half of an already small market, just not a very attractive proposition unless, like I said before, they have an extensive code sharing agreement with US.

I think you are confusing the issues. I've not argued - nor has anyone in this thread, I don't think - that AS will start CLT in the next year or two. But down the road, as both AS and Charlotte grow, I don't know that the hub is necessarily an impediment to AS coming to CLT.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: jeffrey1970
Posted 2012-11-30 10:47:49 and read 2456 times.

Will AS and US ever be partners?

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: bjorn14
Posted 2012-11-30 11:02:26 and read 2386 times.

Quoting jeffrey1970 (Reply 27):
Will AS and US ever be partners?

Maybe when AA & US merge.  

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2012-11-30 12:36:20 and read 2084 times.

If they merge AS will be here quick because there partners with AA

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: jeffrey1970
Posted 2012-11-30 12:41:44 and read 2093 times.

It is hard to believe that AS, which used to only serve the west coast, is such a strong airline, and they are still growing.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-11-30 12:43:31 and read 2085 times.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 24):
Regionally, I'm holding out the prospects for SEA-MRY. AS...what are you waiting for???

With Q400s.............

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-11-30 15:10:04 and read 1982 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 26):
But down the road, as both AS and Charlotte grow, I don't know that the hub is necessarily an impediment to AS coming to CLT.

Certainly, but then you could say that about pretty much any market if you're talking about 5-10 years down the road.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-11-30 16:57:37 and read 1898 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 32):
Certainly, but then you could say that about pretty much any market if you're talking about 5-10 years down the road.

One thing that is going for AS in CLT compared to a lot of other similarly-sized cities is a lack of WN service.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: cjpmaestro
Posted 2012-12-01 09:01:38 and read 1688 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 28):
Quoting jeffrey1970 (Reply 27):
Will AS and US ever be partners?

Maybe when AA & US merge.  

From what I believe is a done deal (the merger that is), I do hope this is one of the eventual outcomes. I've lived in both SEA and PHX (and now moving to PHL), I've always thought a code share relationship between US and AS would have good benefits.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: SuperDash
Posted 2012-12-01 10:39:53 and read 1634 times.

So the chance is OK, I wouldn't classify it as great. They already serve the point with AS code via Delta and American. Given the number of flights USAirways operates, the local traffic probably becomes too low. Reality is that there are not too many places left for Alaska to serve out of Seattle

Here are the top North and Central American destinations out of Seattle that Alaska does not serve (or announced to serve - Salt Lake City)

Rank Airport....................PDEW
17. New York Kennedy.....520.....Partner & OAL served (AS at Newark)
34. Baltimore....................262.....OAL served
37. Albuquerque...............230.....OAL served
40. Detroit.........................211.....Partner served
41. Chicago Midway.........208.....OAL served (AS at O'Hare)
42. Washington Dulles......206.....OAL served - former AS city
45. Miami..........................177.....Partner served - former AS city
48. Nashville.....................151.....OAL seasonal -
50. Milwaukee...................149.....OAL served
52. Tampa.........................140.....Best AS opportunity
55. Charlotte.....................124.....OAL served
59. New Orleans...............119......Another good AS opportunity
63. Raleigh.......................107......Probably better than CLT since there is no competition
64. Indianapolis.................98.......Decent chance - use to be seasonally served by NW
66. Cleveland....................96.......Decent chance if UA drops it
70. Pittsburgh....................90.......Also decent
YE2011 USDOT

[Edited 2012-12-01 10:40:52]

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2012-12-01 10:54:16 and read 1628 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 33):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 32):
Certainly, but then you could say that about pretty much any market if you're talking about 5-10 years down the road.

One thing that is going for AS in CLT compared to a lot of other similarly-sized cities is a lack of WN service.

That's changing in a few months though, CLT is already slated to get MDW service shortly for West Coast and other connections.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2012-12-01 10:59:53 and read 1620 times.

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 35):
Rank Airport....................PDEW
17. New York Kennedy.....520.....Partner & OAL served (AS at Newark)
34. Baltimore....................262.....OAL served
37. Albuquerque...............230.....OAL served
40. Detroit.........................211.....Partner served
41. Chicago Midway.........208.....OAL served (AS at O'Hare)
42. Washington Dulles......206.....OAL served - former AS city
45. Miami..........................177.....Partner served - former AS city
48. Nashville.....................151.....OAL seasonal -
50. Milwaukee...................149.....OAL served
52. Tampa.........................140.....Best AS opportunity
55. Charlotte.....................124.....OAL served
59. New Orleans...............119......Another good AS opportunity
63. Raleigh.......................107......Probably better than CLT since there is no competition
64. Indianapolis.................98.......Decent chance - use to be seasonally served by NW
66. Cleveland....................96.......Decent chance if UA drops it
70. Pittsburgh....................90.......Also decent

Good analysis. What does OAL mean - Other airline? I didn't realize SEA-ABQ was so high in traffic. Maybe that should be AS's next destination? I notice that OMA and OKC aren't even on the last.

What is the daily traffic SEA-ITO? How about SEA-MEX?

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2012-12-01 11:15:03 and read 1617 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 36):
That's changing in a few months though, CLT is already slated to get MDW service shortly for West Coast and other connections.

Correct, but WN at CLT will be smaller than at a lot of comparably-sized cities (think RDU or MSY) for the foreseeable future.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: SuperDash
Posted 2012-12-01 16:02:21 and read 1500 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 37):
Good analysis. What does OAL mean - Other airline?

Correct

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: cessna2
Posted 2012-12-02 14:13:06 and read 1290 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 12):
I'd like to see SJC-RDU for the high tech traffic also. However, if AS couldn't make SJC-AUS work then I'm not holding my breath.

Well I highly doubt it with UA on RDU-SFO now.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 25):
I was as surprised as anyone when this didn't work. With AA having served it for years, did some of the traffic simply move through DFW when AA discontinued the non-stop?

No most people flew JI until their demise. JI offered nonstops to LAX and SJC in the late 90's until they folded in 2001.

Topic: RE: AS Possibility Of CLT Service
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2012-12-03 00:02:11 and read 1146 times.

I think the safe money is on the closer in stuff which is easier to make money on. I think ABQ is a good bet for a new city as well as OKC or COS. For the longer flights, I think TPA and CLT are as good a guess as anything. I really don't know, but I do know that if we're talking SEA-XXX, I don't think the hub or not-hub status of a particular airport is as relevant as many of you are making it sound. AS knows that they can take a majority of the SEA originating traffic on any route with SEA on one end.

I think the shorter flights are a little easier to make work becase you can use only one crew for the flight vs having to overnight crews. Having to overnight an extra crew can very quickly turn a marginal route into an unprofitable one.

Right now, AS can "turn" a wedge that runs from SAN to OKC to MSP (i.e. SEA-OKC can be a turn, SEA-IAH is not). I think what might be an interesting time for pundits on this forum is when the rest rules change, it will allow the "wedge" be expanded and once marginal, passed over routes by AS, may become profitable.



[Edited 2012-12-03 00:03:47]


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