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Topic: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: g500
Posted 2012-12-08 13:04:56 and read 9220 times.

I was reading about Ethiopian's 4-strong 787 fleet, and how they still have to tech-stop in Rome on their way to Washington due to Addis Abeba's elevation of 7000+ feet.

Seems like Addis Abeba's altitude is about the same as Mexico City's. So it seems like Aeromexico might not be able to do MEX-PVG/NRT non-stop like they wanted??

comments

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-12-08 13:22:12 and read 9168 times.

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
Seems like Addis Abeba's altitude is about the same as Mexico City's. So it seems like Aeromexico might not be able to do MEX-PVG/NRT non-stop like they wanted??

ADD runways, the longest 15,500 ft, are also both about 2,500 ft. longer than the MEX runways which are slightly less than 13,000 ft..

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: AR385
Posted 2012-12-08 13:42:21 and read 9079 times.

What´s the temperature at ADD? MEX´s temps are very mild, except maybe for the middle of the summer. And even then, temps go down significantly in the evening and all through the night.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-08 13:56:30 and read 9027 times.

JNB-ATL is 1000nm further albeit not nearly as high as ADD or MEX and the 77L can handle it. I too am curious what the penalty is, if any, for the 788 to fly ADD-IAD or MEX-NRT non-stop.
It's worth keeping in mind that the tech stop may not be entirely performance driven. There is important traffic between FCO and ADD. Ethiopia was an Italian colony and there are still strong commercial ties between the 2 countries. Also the lack of non-stop competition from ADD to the US puts ET in no hurry to give up that important revenue between ADD and FCO. This is a very similar situation to the one that SAA was in prior to DL starting non-stop flights to JNB.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-12-08 14:01:36 and read 9003 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 2):
What´s the temperature at ADD? MEX´s temps are very mild, except maybe for the middle of the summer. And even then, temps go down significantly in the evening and all through the night.

Temmperatures at ADD are rarely higher than the mid-20s, even in the warmest months. See the climate table here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addis_Ababa

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-12-08 16:50:11 and read 8715 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 1):

ADD runways, the longest 15,500 ft, are also both about 2,500 ft. longer than the MEX runways which are slightly less than 13,000

I can't find anywhere that quotes 15500ft. GC Mapper and a Wiki source both show about 12500ft.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 3):
I too am curious what the penalty is, if any, for the 788 to fly ADD-IAD or MEX-NRT non-stop.

PIANO-X suggests a penalty of about 20t of TOW for either ADD or MEX. The temperatures at ADD are quite moderate and probably have no material affect. MEX temperatures seems to be similar. At this reduced TOW the range with max passenger load is about 5000nm so clearly both services will be operated with a tech stop. Probably FCO and somewhere in the LAX area.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-12-08 17:27:51 and read 8617 times.

AM will first receive 9 788s. Expect those to fly to NRT, SLC, EZE, CDG, LHR and, if AM launches it, GIG. Once the 9 789s arrive, those will be sent to MAD, GRU, EZE occasionally, and PVG. I understand the 789 has much better range than the 788, so hopefully PVG will be nonstop.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 2):
except maybe for the middle of the summer

Not really. It gets "very" warm (rarely more than 30 Celsius) during spring, i.e., April, May and June, that's it. Once it starts raining in June, temperatures go down. Summers in el D.F. are miserable. It is the spring when people wear shorts and flip flops, and when it is sunny and beautiful.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-12-08 18:27:58 and read 8488 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 6):
I understand the 789 has much better range than the 788, so hopefully PVG will be nonstop.

Maybe but it is hard to overcome a 20t shortfall in takeoff weight. Do you know what thrust engines they will have ? These will make a difference . MEX-PVG is over 7000nm , the numbers just don't add up for non-stop from an airport with an altitude of 7316ft above sea level.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: KaiTak747
Posted 2012-12-09 03:27:39 and read 7333 times.

AM fly MEX to NRT on their 767-200/300s so this would definitely be possible when they get their 787s.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2012-12-09 03:55:11 and read 7225 times.

Is the stop in FCO kept only for tech reasons? Don't Ethiopian keep the stop for market reasons?

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: flyingalex
Posted 2012-12-09 04:55:47 and read 6995 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 9):
Is the stop in FCO kept only for tech reasons? Don't Ethiopian keep the stop for market reasons?

Ethiopian's flights to Washington are routed ADD-FCO-IAD-ADD, the return goes nonstop. If they were stopping in Rome for commercial reasons, they would be stopping both ways. Since they're only stopping on the outbound, you can be sure that it's for technical reasons. They would do ADD-IAD nonstop if they could, but they can't. IAD-ADD can be flown nonstop, and so they do.

It's very similar to Qantas's SYD-DFW-BNE-SYD routing.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: xaapb
Posted 2012-12-09 06:06:32 and read 6690 times.

Quoting KaiTak747 (Reply 8):

The route is MEX-TIJ-NRT the return is from NRT to MEX non stop.

Greetings

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-12-09 06:13:36 and read 6656 times.

Quoting KaiTak747 (Reply 8):
AM fly MEX to NRT on their 767-200/300s so this would definitely be possible when they get their 787s.

There is a 1000nm difference between MEX-NRT and MEX-PVG which changes the possibilities. MEX-NRT looks possible for about a 31t payload with the 789

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-09 07:26:22 and read 6276 times.

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 10):

Ethiopian's flights to Washington are routed ADD-FCO-IAD-ADD, the return goes nonstop. If they were stopping in Rome for commercial reasons, they would be stopping both ways. Since they're only stopping on the outbound, you can be sure that it's for technical reasons. They would do ADD-IAD nonstop if they could, but they can't. IAD-ADD can be flown nonstop, and so they do.

It is nothing like QF's DFW route. The commercial viability of ADD-FCO is a lot greater than that of DFW-BNE. So much so that ET has separate daily flight.
There is actually demand, especially for cargo, between ADD and FCO and the 788 allows ET to carry a lot more of it from an airport at 7000+ft. Such constraint doesn't exist on the return leg. The current setup also allows ET to distinguish itself from the various carriers that serve ADD from the US. Remember that the great majority of the pax traffic on this route originates on the US side. If they were to stop on both legs they would be just like everyone else. The non-stop in one direction is a good product differentiator.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: flyingalex
Posted 2012-12-09 07:39:53 and read 6199 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 13):
It is nothing like QF's DFW route.

From an aircraft performance/limitations standpoint, the situation is exactly the same.

If they could do it with a full payload, ET would happily fly ADD-IAD nonstop rather than stop at FCO.

Likewise, if they could do it with a full payload, QF would happily fly DFW-SYD nonstop rather than stop at BNE.

In both cases, the flight is beyond the capabilities of the aircraft given the parameters involved, and that is why both carriers continue to tech-stop one way, but not the other.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 13):
The commercial viability of ADD-FCO is a lot greater than that of DFW-BNE. So much so that ET has separate daily flight.

I am fully aware of that. I did not make reference to this because it is completely irrelevant to my point. You have answered the question "Why stop in Rome?", whereas I have answered the question "Why stop anywhere at all?"

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: g500
Posted 2012-12-09 08:04:41 and read 6047 times.

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 10):
Ethiopian's flights to Washington are routed ADD-FCO-IAD-ADD, the return goes nonstop. If they were stopping in Rome for commercial reasons, they would be stopping both ways. Since they're only stopping on the outbound, you can be sure that it's for technical reasons. They would do ADD-IAD nonstop if they could, but they can't. IAD-ADD can be flown nonstop, and so they do.
Quoting xaapb (Reply 11):
The route is MEX-TIJ-NRT the return is from NRT to MEX non stop.

So it looks like Aeromexico will be doing that tech-stop in TIJ for many many years then?

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: justinlee
Posted 2012-12-09 11:10:41 and read 5060 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 12):
There is a 1000nm difference between MEX-NRT and MEX-PVG which changes the possibilities. MEX-NRT looks possible for about a 31t payload with the 789

There is a rumor said HU will fly PEK-MEX when they receive their 788. Just wondering whether they will need a stop in TIJ.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: g500
Posted 2012-12-09 11:32:07 and read 4946 times.

Quoting justinlee (Reply 16):
There is a rumor said HU will fly PEK-MEX when they receive their 788. Just wondering whether they will need a stop in TIJ.

I sincerely doubt HU will stop in TIJ, there are no passengers for them to uplift there. The U.S West Coast or HNL might be a better stop if the U.S approves it

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-12-09 11:45:33 and read 4854 times.

Quoting justinlee (Reply 16):
There is a rumor said HU will fly PEK-MEX when they receive their 788. Just wondering whether they will need a stop in TIJ.

They all need a stop for trans-pacific westbound out of MEX. TIJ is good enough but with a 9700 ft runway at 489 ft elevation it has little wriggle room.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2012-12-09 11:53:00 and read 4799 times.

I wonder if they would consider stopping at YVR maybe?

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: AR385
Posted 2012-12-09 11:57:43 and read 4772 times.

Quoting g500 (Reply 17):
I sincerely doubt HU will stop in TIJ, there are no passengers for them to uplift there. The U.S West Coast or HNL might be a better stop if the U.S approves it

The US might approve it but I doubt Mexico will grant them 5th freedom if recent history proves consistent.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: flyingalex
Posted 2012-12-09 12:13:21 and read 4680 times.

Quoting g500 (Reply 17):
I sincerely doubt HU will stop in TIJ, there are no passengers for them to uplift there. The U.S West Coast or HNL might be a better stop if the U.S approves it

Stopping in US territory would be a terrible idea, actually. Why? Because all transit passengers would need to clear US immigration, and for both Mexicans and Chinese, that means they need to get US visas. The whole point of direct flights between Mexico and Asia is to avoid US visa issues, so there is little sense in routing via the USA.

That's why AM's flights go via TIJ rather than LAX or whatever. AM are not picking up much (if any) traffic at TIJ, it just happens to be the last Mexican airport at which they can stop for gas before their trans-Pacific crossing.

If Hainan come to MEX, their tech stop may not be TIJ, but I'm sure it won't be a US airport.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2012-12-09 12:21:58 and read 4634 times.

Quoting g500 (Reply 17):
I sincerely doubt HU will stop in TIJ, there are no passengers for them to uplift there

This has nothing to do with passengers etc from TIJ. It is all to do with lifting an economic payload out of MEX given the considerable TOW restriction because of its elevation and moving them to a point where fuel can be added to get the payload the rest of the way.
TIJ is not a bad spot. From there to NRT,PEK and PVG is about 4845,5542 and 5745nm respectively to all of which the 788/789 can haul a pretty decent payload out of TIJ.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 19):
I wonder if they would consider stopping at YVR maybe?

Very little in it based on a GC calculation. Not sure how the airways would work. I would expect charges at TIJ would be a lot less than YVR.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: LatinPlane
Posted 2012-12-09 12:55:52 and read 4454 times.

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 21):
AM are not picking up much (if any) traffic at TIJ, it just happens to be the last Mexican airport at which they can stop for gas before their trans-Pacific crossing.

While this is the case for the flight to NRT, this is not the case for the flight to PVG. Passengers transported between TIJ and China represent between 15% to 23% of the total load factor for the flight depending on the time of the year. In Sept the flight to PVG registered a total load factor of 83% and 15% was contributed to the TIJ stop.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-12-09 16:43:31 and read 4189 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 5):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 1):

ADD runways, the longest 15,500 ft, are also both about 2,500 ft. longer than the MEX runways which are slightly less than 13,000

I can't find anywhere that quotes 15500ft. GC Mapper and a Wiki source both show about 12500ft.

I only checked the Wikipedia entry on ADD airport and it shows 2 runways both over 15,000 ft. I should have leared by now not to use Wikipedia as a primary information source.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bole_International_Airport

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-10 06:16:29 and read 3984 times.

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 14):
From an aircraft performance/limitations standpoint, the situation is exactly the same.

Fair enough. But even if there was a capable aircraft you still need the high yield traffic to support such a demanding route. All I'm saying is, they would most likely still stop in FCO even if there was a capable aircraft. 789 *caugh*  

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: BNAOWB
Posted 2012-12-11 07:38:23 and read 3664 times.

Quoting LatinPlane (Reply 23):
Passengers transported between TIJ and China represent between 15% to 23% of the total load factor for the flight depending on the time of the year.

Would that "15% to 23%" include passengers that are connecting at TIJ from other Mexican cities such as GDL/CJS/CEN/HMO/MTY?

Also, it would be interesting to know the percentage of TIJ-PVG passengers that cross the border to the San Diego area.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: Marcus
Posted 2012-12-11 08:18:32 and read 3653 times.

Quoting BNAOWB (Reply 26):
Also, it would be interesting to know the percentage of TIJ-PVG passengers that cross the border to the San Diego area.

The stop at TIJ for both NRT and PVG is mostly due to technicall reasons, that there are interesting numbers of passengers to be picked up in the city that is just icing on the cake.

Having said that, the Chinese community in TIJ is far greater than the Japanese one, not all Chinese nationals living in TIJ hold US visas so knowing how many live in the US but just fly out of TIJ (due to schedule or price or ease of travel vs LAX, etc) is difficult to know. Some years ago when I took AM's TIJ-NRT (before TIJ-PVG had started) a good number of passengers where connecting to other flights to mainland China, how many boarded at TIJ or MEX I do not know.

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: LatinPlane
Posted 2012-12-12 01:00:19 and read 3378 times.

Quoting BNAOWB (Reply 26):
Would that "15% to 23%" include passengers that are connecting at TIJ from other Mexican cities such as GDL/CJS/CEN/HMO/MTY?

Also, it would be interesting to know the percentage of TIJ-PVG passengers that cross the border to the San Diego area.

I would not be able to get specific information as connections are concerned. The percentages I post are found on Mexico DGAC's website. I can tell you that last time I flew the flight in April: PVG-TIJ-MEX flight was about 93% full and roughly 15% of passengers got off in TIJ along with about three baggage containers and one pallet which looked like a cargo shipment. The flight seemed to be a mix of about 45% Mexican nationals and 45% Chinese nationals with about 10% "other" presumably Central/South Americans connecting via MEX. Many of those Chinese passengers were also connecting in MEX for onward connections to other parts of Latin America like Lima, Peru. For the 15% that got off in TIJ, another 15% passengers were taken on for the domestic leg to MEX. Business class was completely full, again with a good mix of about 50% Mexican/Chinese business people. As one can imagine, during the stop the flight took on more fuel and snacks for its final three-hour journey to MEX.

It is interesting to note on AM's quarterly financial statements that the Asian operation (PVG and NRT) generally post a decent small profit for three of the four quarters of the year. Not bad as one can only assume that this operation must be very expensive to operate and considering that the profit is spread over a few number of flights per week composed 2x a week to PVG and 3x a week to NRT. Also, for a few months in 2011, the flight to PVG was rerouted via Cabo as TIJ's runway was being repaired. During those months, the flight loss about 15 - 20% of its load factor and no cargo was carried, which means that while TIJ is a technical stop, it more than pays for itself.

I would say that very few to zero tickets are issued to passengers willing to cross the U.S./Mexico border just to catch this flight. The flight from TIJ to PVG is quite expensive compared to the multitude price options available from LAX. In low season, the cheapest fare goes for $1,800 including taxes. Also the schedule is limited to twice a week, which is obviously no match for the daily frequencies to PVG (Non-stop or with connecting service) at around 40% less the price of a TIJ-PVG round trip fare.

Pretty cool operation to Asia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-9KMXHH7ps

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: wingedtaurus
Posted 2012-12-12 10:34:13 and read 3192 times.

While we are at it, does anybody know where this AM ICN rumours are coming from? Would MEX-ICN be technicaly feasible?

Topic: RE: So, Will MEX-PVG/NRT Be Do-able Non-stop With 787?
Username: 330lover
Posted 2012-12-12 10:46:18 and read 3167 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 3):
There is important traffic between FCO and ADD. Ethiopia was an Italian colony and there are still strong commercial ties between the 2 countries
Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 9):
Is the stop in FCO kept only for tech reasons? Don't Ethiopian keep the stop for market reasons?

If I remember correctly, the stop is indeed technical (needed or not). There is no boarding ADD-FCO nor FCO-IAD at all.
ET operates dedicated ADD-FCO-ADD flights for this, some extending to LHR or ARN (or did this finish?)
Don't know about cargo though. If there are no traffic rights on FCO-IAD, does this only count pax wise, so they can take cargo, or is it applicable to both cargo and pax?


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