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Topic: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: PH-BFA
Posted 2012-12-18 04:32:32 and read 17019 times.

According to this website, Ryanair took delivery of ei-evy yesterday, the latest (and currently last) 737 on order.

http://www.planespotters.net/Product...oeing/737/40319,EI-EVY-Ryanair.php

Would this mean that for the next couple of years we won't see any new aircraft deliveries for Ryanair as they did not place any orders yet?

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Chiad
Posted 2012-12-18 05:31:08 and read 16748 times.

What about all their growth plans?
I think this is the result that neither Boeing nor Airbus is very "willing" to lower their prices for this bully of an airline.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: tistpaa727
Posted 2012-12-18 05:35:55 and read 16699 times.

With no new deliveries on the horizon doesn't that go against their business plan - retire planes quickly to keep a very young fleet that requires less maintenance? It might appear the bullying tactic just might bite O'Leary in the rear...

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: CRJ900
Posted 2012-12-18 05:44:28 and read 16593 times.

Isn't 300 aircraft enough? They are parking shitloads of aircraft during winter, and if they are desperate for lift during summer, they can probably lease some extra frames - other airlines do.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: SKAirbus
Posted 2012-12-18 05:52:22 and read 16511 times.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 3):
Isn't 300 aircraft enough? They are parking shitloads of aircraft during winter, and if they are desperate for lift during summer, they can probably lease some extra frames - other airlines do.

I think Ryanair is reaching the end of its growth potential. Newer, more innovative airlines are growing and appearing offering a LCC product that can be better tailored. Look at Norwegian... they have had astonishing growth and with a very different product.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Chiad
Posted 2012-12-18 05:58:05 and read 16446 times.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 3):
Isn't 300 aircraft enough? They are parking shitloads of aircraft during winter, and if they are desperate for lift during summer, they can probably lease some extra frames - other airlines do.

That's true and probably what they'll have to do.
But this didn't seem to be their strategy some time back.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/northwestf...02/05/airbus-no-deal-with-ryanair/

http://www.ryanair.com/en/news/ryana...ons-have-terminated-unsuccessfully

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/...anair-boeing-idUSGEE5B70YY20091208

[Edited 2012-12-18 05:59:35]

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-12-18 06:38:40 and read 16185 times.

Quoting PH-BFA (Thread starter):
Would this mean that for the next couple of years we won't see any new aircraft deliveries for Ryanair as they did not place any orders yet?

Boeing may be holding 737 delivery positions for them. The two have been negotiating a ~200-frame purchase for some time.



Quoting Chiad (Reply 1):
What about all their growth plans?

There has been speculation that FR wants to slow their growth and therefore have been husbanding cash by not placing additional orders. Their fleet is still quite young (5% are between 9 and 10 years old) so they don't need to start replacing them in the near future.

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 2):
With no new deliveries on the horizon doesn't that go against their business plan - retire planes quickly to keep a very young fleet that requires less maintenance?
Quoting Chiad (Reply 1):
I think this is the result that neither Boeing nor Airbus is very "willing" to lower their prices for this bully of an airline.

Per statements from Boeing, they are comfortable with the pricing FR is asking for. What they are not comfortable with is FR's desire to be able to quickly re-sell their planes.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Bongodog1964
Posted 2012-12-18 07:24:15 and read 15908 times.

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 2):
With no new deliveries on the horizon doesn't that go against their business plan - retire planes quickly to keep a very young fleet that requires less maintenance? It might appear the bullying tactic just might bite O'Leary in the rear...

Whilst this has been the FR business plan it was entirely dictated by the prices they got for new aircraft back in 2001. It made sense to keep replacing nearly new aircraft when 2nd hand prices are high and the cost of replacements low. Now that the supply of cheap new aircraft has come to an end it might make financial sense to keep them longer.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: tdscanuck
Posted 2012-12-18 07:50:01 and read 15715 times.

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 2):
With no new deliveries on the horizon doesn't that go against their business plan - retire planes quickly to keep a very young fleet that requires less maintenance?

As Bongodog1964 said, it's only in the business *because* of the deal they got. It's not really a necessary part of Ryanair's business plan (the plan works either way). Ryanair paid so little for new frames that they could put them into the used market prior to heavy maintenance and come out ahead. That probably won't be true going forward but it doesn't really cause any issue with their business plan, it just means they'll keep the planes through their heavy checks. They're perfectly serviceable.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: PH-BFA
Posted 2012-12-18 08:02:04 and read 15623 times.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 8):
it doesn't really cause any issue with their business plan

Having more ' heavy checks' in the future does raise their cost base I would say, which would imply that either other costs have to come down, or more income has to be generated (higher ticket prices, more ancilliary revenues, higher load factors etc) in order to achieve the same level of (operational) profitability

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2012-12-18 09:05:17 and read 14737 times.

Quoting PH-BFA (Reply 9):
Having more ' heavy checks' in the future does raise their cost base

Heavy checks are still cheaper than buying new aircraft. It's not like they'd be swapping MD's for NG's...they'd be swapping NG's for NG's...so the operating cost would be about the same anyway. It's not until NEO's or MAX's are available, (or C919's), that it really makes sense to refresh the fleet.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: lapper
Posted 2012-12-18 09:34:12 and read 14197 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Their fleet is still quite young (5% are between 9 and 10 years old) so they don't need to start replacing them in the near future.

Don't forget that although the fleet is you, the number of cycles will be quite high for the age. Ryanair flies approx 6-8 sectors per day, much higher utilisation than other carriers.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-12-18 10:06:03 and read 13660 times.

Quoting lapper (Reply 11):
Don't forget that although the fleet is you, the number of cycles will be quite high for the age. Ryanair flies approx 6-8 sectors per day, much higher utilisation than other carriers.

True, however a 737NG is designed for such heavy use.



Since the start of 2010, Boeing has secured orders for over 800 737-800s. If may very well be the case that RyanAir is not finding a ready market for their used 737-800s so even if they have come to an agreement with Boeing on pricing and terms, they can't shift their old planes so they're forced to hold on to them.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-12-18 10:10:54 and read 13583 times.

The number of cycles isn't nearly as high in winter, much of the fleet is parked for days at a time. An they STILL make millions!

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2012-12-18 10:21:48 and read 13410 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Per statements from Boeing, they are comfortable with the pricing FR is asking for. What they are not comfortable with is FR's desire to be able to quickly re-sell their planes.

What difference would that make to Boeing?

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: redzeppelin
Posted 2012-12-18 10:41:07 and read 13064 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):
What difference would that make to Boeing?

This is how I see it: Boeing makes more money when they can sell new frames directly to the airlines that buy the used frames from FR. FR is able to get good discounts by ordering in large numbers, while smaller airlines can't negotiate the same discounts. So boeing makes more money per frame when selling to the smaller airlines. Does that make sense?

If FR resells large numbers of their relatively young used 738s at reasonable prices, it affects Boeing's ability to sell new frames to those same buyers. FR would presumably buy new planes to replace them with, but Boeing would prefer to sell new frames directly to a diverse customer base rather than selling to one major (and somewhat unpredictable) buyer that demands low prices and then turns around and resells the planes after a few yers.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: EagleBoy
Posted 2012-12-18 10:47:36 and read 12969 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 13):

The number of cycles isn't nearly as high in winter, much of the fleet is parked for days at a time. An they STILL make millions!

Well FR often have a no parking charges deal with an airport, flight/cabin crew are contractors, handling agents are 3rd party. So FR don't lose money 'parking' those airframes as they would be flying empty or close to anyway.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: flyingcello
Posted 2012-12-18 10:52:54 and read 12859 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):
What difference would that make to Boeing?

redzeppelin has it right...Ryanair putting lots of nearly new frames onto the second hand market supresses prices through oversupply. And this impacts Boeing's ability to command high prices for new aircraft.

A good illustration is that of the BMW car fleet that was supplied for the London Olympics. BMW provided 5000 cars, and all were placed onto the second hand market after the Olympics. In order not to impact second hand (or brand new) prices, BMW UK held onto a similar number of BMW Fleet cars (management, press etc.) for longer than they usually would (probably nine months to a year rather than six months or something similar). This ensured that the Olympic cars didn't damage resale value.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-12-18 11:20:42 and read 12382 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):
What difference would that make to Boeing?

FR paid around $29 million each for the 100 737-800s they ordered in January 2002. Most of those planes were delivered between 2003 and 2007.

Those 2003 deliveries had an average market value of $38 million after five years. A new 737-800 would run a smaller customer about $48 million, so they could save millions by taking one of FR's used frames and FR could sell that frame for more than they paid for it. As redzeppelin noted, that directly impacted Boeing's ability to sell new 737s to smaller customers.

And it's not just RyanAir. For a time in the late 2000s, Delta Airlines was taking deliveries of new 737-800s from Boeing Field and immediately re-selling them for a profit to secondary buyers thanks to the pricing deals they had in place with Boeing.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: FriendlySkies
Posted 2012-12-18 11:38:01 and read 12096 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
And it's not just RyanAir. For a time in the late 2000s, Delta Airlines was taking deliveries of new 737-800s from Boeing Field and immediately re-selling them for a profit to secondary buyers thanks to the pricing deals they had in place with Boeing.

I'm not a lawyer, but shouldn't there be some sort of legal issue with this practice? I'm surprised Boeing (and Airbus) wouldn't have some sort of language in their contracts, unless they were that desperate for orders back then.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2012-12-18 12:01:34 and read 11698 times.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 19):

I'm not a lawyer, but shouldn't there be some sort of legal issue with this practice? I'm surprised Boeing (and Airbus) wouldn't have some sort of language in their contracts, unless they were that desperate for orders back then.

I wouldn't make a habit of that over the long term, as the company would likely be less willing to make tasty deals with you in the future knowing you will do that to them, but there isn't a legal issue in selling planes delivered according to a previously agreed-to delivery contract.

Remember that with something like airplanes there is a very significant time value to the asset. Delivery slots themselves can be just as valuable (if not more) than the plane itself - see recent A330 orders. There is only so much Boeing can do to speed up delivery even for it's best customer (see what AA ended up doing). Also, it's always possible they even gave tacit approval for such an arrangement if it kept someone in their camp who otherwise would have bought Airbii, and if (say) DL were threatening to drop the orders for financial reasons. I don't know the specifics; I'm just throwing a few considerations out there to point out how Boeing might not be too opposed given the specific arrangement.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-12-18 12:22:57 and read 11339 times.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 19):
I'm surprised Boeing (and Airbus) wouldn't have some sort of language in their contracts...

They do now, which is one of the hang-ups to FR placing a new order.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: yyz717
Posted 2012-12-18 13:06:31 and read 10749 times.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 4):
I think Ryanair is reaching the end of its growth potential.

I agree. Their unit costs will also rise as wage pressures from a maturing (ie. more tenured) work force grow. Over time, mx costs on the 738 fleet will start to rise.

Ryanair's model is based on low costs AND fast growth to keep unit costs in check. The model now appears to need changing.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: cipango
Posted 2012-12-18 19:22:57 and read 7783 times.

The OCD in me is dying at the fact they didn't end at EI-EVZ  

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: HAWK21M
Posted 2012-12-18 23:11:35 and read 6555 times.

Quoting PH-BFA (Thread starter):
Would this mean that for the next couple of years we won't see any new aircraft deliveries for Ryanair as they did not place any orders yet

No 737MAX. for them.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: InsideMan
Posted 2012-12-19 01:36:31 and read 5799 times.

as fas as I know Ryanair made the money at delivery, not reselling the A/C through sale & lease back at time of delivery.
E.g. A/C Price 25M$ net net. Sold for 30M$ to bank and leased back for very low rates, as market price is more like 35M$. This gives you 5M$ cash flow for each delivery and very low leasing cost.
Smart business model, but you need new deliveries constantly to keep it going!

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: HAWK21M
Posted 2012-12-19 02:15:27 and read 5484 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 25):
E.g. A/C Price 25M$ net net. Sold for 30M$ to bank and leased back for very low rates, as market price is more like 35M$. This gives you 5M$ cash flow for each delivery and very low leasing cost.
Smart business model, but you need new deliveries constantly to keep it going!

On this sale and lease back topic.....if it favours the Airlines.....what is the counterside to it.
Also how does the bank benefit.Who loses.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: FlyingAY
Posted 2012-12-19 03:20:59 and read 5035 times.

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 26):

On this sale and lease back topic.....if it favours the Airlines.....what is the counterside to it.
Also how does the bank benefit.Who loses.

You have to remember that Ryanair bought their planes at a time when Boeing was desperate for 737 orders to keep the production line rolling. MOL's infamous comment about "raping" Boeing over the price is something most of us remember. I think what InsideMan suggested is that it's easy for FR to find a leasing company that's willing to buy the plane for a higher price than FR actually paid of it - it still might be cheaper for the leasing company when compared to buying directly from Boeing.

Who loses? Well, some might say Boeing, but on the other hand, they're delivering a plane they got paid for, so I doubt they consider themselves losing either.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2012-12-19 03:50:45 and read 4748 times.

While we are talking about it, why is the FR 738 max to weight 69990 kgs whereas most other carriers list 78245 kgs?

Does that give them any additional benefits in operating the aircraft?    
Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 27):
Who loses? Well, some might say Boeing, but on the other hand, they're delivering a plane they got paid for, so I doubt they consider themselves losing eit

They are aking the money on spares anyhow, but with a low utilisation that cannot be that thrilling either.

Simple fact is, doing business with a penny pincher cannot be really profitable.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: PH-BFA
Posted 2012-12-19 04:08:18 and read 4569 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 28):
While we are talking about it, why is the FR 738 max to weight 69990 kgs whereas most other carriers list 78245 kgs?

Could cost them 50 million euros..

http://www.spiegel.de/reise/aktuell/...en-erschummelt-haben-a-873756.html

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: InsideMan
Posted 2012-12-19 04:40:49 and read 4220 times.

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 26):
On this sale and lease back topic.....if it favours the Airlines.....what is the counterside to it.
Also how does the bank benefit.Who loses.

noone really loses. Boeing is having a big order with low margin, still the production is full, planes are sold at a profit (albeit low one), Ryanair is making cash of each delivery, the Bank gets a strongly sought after product that is easy to turn around in case of default for a great price etc.
At the end of the day they all share the risk and the profit, but if you ask me Ryanair has the sweet spot. At least that was the case with their last order, which I don't think they can repeat....

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 27):
I think what InsideMan suggested is that it's easy for FR to find a leasing company that's willing to buy the plane for a higher price than FR actually paid of it - it still might be cheaper for the leasing company when compared to buying directly from Boeing.

The bank will never know (at least through offiicial channels) what the price is Ryanair pays. They only know the price Ryanair is asking them.... By the way they are not the only ones. Many LCCs copied the model, which is why so many of them turn around their A/C so quickly, apart from avoiding heavy maintenance.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: SmittyOne
Posted 2012-12-19 04:51:15 and read 4190 times.

Quoting PH-BFA (Reply 29):
Could cost them 50 million euros..

Wow, I read a Google translation of that article...is the allegation that Ryanair inappropriately understated the MTOW of their aircraft in order to pay reduced fees?

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2012-12-19 05:44:39 and read 3983 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 30):
the Bank gets a strongly sought after product that is easy to turn around in case of default for a great price etc.

even better, the bank bundles that into derivates or similar products and sells these straight away. If there is a default, not the bank loses, the investor does and that is more than often the small guy.

I made a remark in another thread if this business model is sustainable. It is certainly smart but others are smart as well..
Now that the last of the batch is delivered, that can certainly put a dent into the next balance sheets.



Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 31):
is the allegation that Ryanair inappropriately understated the MTOW of their aircraft in order to pay reduced fees?

basically so and I am really surprised that there is no separate thread on that.

[Edited 2012-12-19 05:55:16]

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: tdscanuck
Posted 2012-12-19 05:48:24 and read 3988 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 28):
While we are talking about it, why is the FR 738 max to weight 69990 kgs whereas most other carriers list 78245 kgs?

Ryanair doesn't fly far enough to ever need the full weight. They save a lot by reducing the MTOW because that's what many airports use to figure out the landing feeds.

Quoting SmittyOne (Reply 31):
is the allegation that Ryanair inappropriately understated the MTOW of their aircraft in order to pay reduced fees?

Doing a paper derate (purchasing a service bulletin from the OEM to officially modify the MTOW and all related documentation/databases/etc.) is widely practiced and not "inappropriate" any more than not buying an airplane bigger than you actually need is in appropriate. However, from the article translation, it sounds like maybe Ryanair didn't actually derate the aircraft and just gave a fudged number to ATC.

Tom.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: SmittyOne
Posted 2012-12-19 05:54:21 and read 3921 times.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 33):
Doing a paper derate (purchasing a service bulletin from the OEM to officially modify the MTOW and all related documentation/databases/etc.) is widely practiced and not "inappropriate" any more than not buying an airplane bigger than you actually need is in appropriate. However, from the article translation, it sounds like maybe Ryanair didn't actually derate the aircraft and just gave a fudged number to ATC.

Thanks Tom, makes sense to me...

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2012-12-19 08:11:53 and read 3703 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 25):
as fas as I know Ryanair made the money at delivery, not reselling the A/C through sale & lease back at time of delivery.
E.g. A/C Price 25M$ net net. Sold for 30M$ to bank and leased back for very low rates, as market price is more like 35M$. This gives you 5M$ cash flow for each delivery and very low leasing cost.
Smart business model, but you need new deliveries constantly to keep it going!

Let's keep this in perspective--the vast majority of Ryainair's fleet is not leased (less than 20%)--so that's not responsible for the majority of their cash flow.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: DouglasDC10
Posted 2012-12-19 12:15:18 and read 3418 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 28):
While we are talking about it, why is the FR 738 max to weight 69990 kgs whereas most other carriers list 78245 kgs?

Ryanair makes use of so-called "flex weights" which means that an individual aircraft is certified for different MTOWs. Ryanair's 737-800s are certified for three different weights: 66990, 69990 and 74990 kgs. For loadsheets and flight plans, the lowest possible is used as some ATC and airport charges are calculated on that base. This procedure is not only used by FR and the 737-800. I know about two German airlines (AB and X3) who do that as well. AB uses that procedure for their Airbus aircraft as well. Surely, they are not the only airlines to do so.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 33):
Ryanair doesn't fly far enough to ever need the full weight. They save a lot by reducing the MTOW because that's what many airports use to figure out the landing feeds.

Unfortunately they do. I know about cases of HAM - Canaries flights when AB/X3 737-800 aircraft with a certified MTOW of 78000 and higher had problems to fly the route with full pax and no cargo. FR operates Canaries routes from/to BRE and EDI where the distance is comparable.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-12-19 17:52:05 and read 3039 times.

So was every single B737-8AS delivered to DUB? I know EZY deliver to several bases from Airbus.

Topic: RE: Last Ryanair 737NG Delivered
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2012-12-19 23:10:55 and read 2850 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 37):
So was every single B737-8AS delivered to DUB? I know EZY deliver to several bases from Airbus.

FR buy a products from a third country, which has to go through customs procedure, whereas EZY buys a product from another single market country which does not need customs clearance. Just a zero VAT intrastat notification on the monthly statement.


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