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Topic: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: ANA787
Posted 2012-12-17 13:38:40 and read 11558 times.

I always fly this route and bookings seem to be no longer available after March 31, 2013? Is this route being cut?

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2012-12-17 13:44:55 and read 11524 times.

It appears so, as noted towards the end of this thread:

Out Of 8 Routes To NRT, UA Downgrades LAX, Why? (by g500 Dec 11 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2012-12-17 13:52:48 and read 11448 times.

That's not surprising. I always wondered why they flew this seeing as they have more than ample service directly from ICN. Also, the presence of 7 other carriers on the route must have massacred yields.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-17 14:00:55 and read 11381 times.

Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: FL787
Posted 2012-12-17 15:00:11 and read 11064 times.

Yet another sign that Japan is losing its relative importance in the region.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: yowza
Posted 2012-12-17 15:13:54 and read 10978 times.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 4):

Perhaps an overstatement no? Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-12-17 15:26:51 and read 10904 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

So Sad. My flight last year flew along side it for most of the trip back. Great companion back to the states.

Buddy of mine always took this route too because of KE's service. Sad loss  
Quoting yowza (Reply 5):
Perhaps an overstatement no? Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

Indeed an overstatement. Rumor has MH is going to run A380s on this route alongside the SQ A380.

Japan may be struggling a bit but NRT is still one heck of a hub.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2012-12-17 15:35:01 and read 10843 times.

Don't forget that NRT is also getting/just got new flights to SAN, SJC, DEN, and SEA. Four 787s replacing a 330 is a large increase...

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: FL787
Posted 2012-12-17 16:10:33 and read 10691 times.

Quoting yowza (Reply 5):
Perhaps an overstatement no? Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

I'm not saying LAX-NRT is a bad route or that it shouldn't be flown but its just not a prestige route like it once was. UA, AA, DL, NH, and JL all have significant operations on one end while SQ and MH both have hubs that make nonstops to LAX difficult. Given how competitive the route is, and how KE's partner DL is also on the route, I find it tough to believe they found NRT-LAX to be the best use of aircraft instead of something out of ICN for so long.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-17 16:38:46 and read 10546 times.

Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size.

Not only has the fact that Japan no longer need to play the role as the Asia gateway with ever growing nonstop direct services, the economic malaise and demographic shifts in Japan have led to reduced travel demand for US flights.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-12-17 16:46:27 and read 10501 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size.

  

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 7):
Don't forget that NRT is also getting/just got new flights to SAN, SJC, DEN, and SEA. Four 787s replacing a 330 is a large increase...

NRT has been in a terminal decline for years, if not decades.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: g500
Posted 2012-12-17 18:26:58 and read 10132 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

sad but expected I guess. LAX-NRT is crowed for the looks of it

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: as739x
Posted 2012-12-17 18:33:27 and read 10089 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):
Indeed an overstatement. Rumor has MH is going to run A380s on this route alongside the SQ A380

Don't get your hopes up on that one! As LAXIntl said: "Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size". So why? They can't do daily service as is.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: Fly2yyz
Posted 2012-12-17 18:42:17 and read 9965 times.

So is this official? I mean this is sorta like a prestige route for KE right?

And I'm not sure, but was/is KE allowed to sell NRT-LAX-GRU for instance?

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: ordjoe
Posted 2012-12-17 20:23:18 and read 9226 times.

Good for ke they are offering nothing more than what the 7 other carriers are at the end of the the day. I see most premium pax using UA or AA from the us or ana or jl from the Japanese side. Seems more prestige driven.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-12-17 20:38:36 and read 9094 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

Wow...

Am I the only one floored by this announcement. It was an option always taken for granted...

Quoting yowza (Reply 5):
Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

I still remember the threads on the route competition... I think only SYD-LHR is more brutal.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
NRT has been in a terminal decline for years, if not decades.

Sad but true. When it forgo being a larger hub the writing was on the wall.

Quoting Fly2yyz (Reply 13):
So is this official? I mean this is sorta like a prestige route for KE right?

Then it probably should be dropped. Usually 'prestigue'=money losing.

Quoting as739x (Reply 12):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):
Indeed an overstatement. Rumor has MH is going to run A380s on this route alongside the SQ A380

Don't get your hopes up on that one! As LAXIntl said: "Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size". So why? They can't do daily service as is.

I have to agree with not getting one's hopes up. LAX-NRT is being displaced by bypass to many other destinations: ICN, PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN and probably a few others I missed the launch of the non-stop. The connections at NRT aren't that convenient. The reality is that ICN, PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN, SIN, and other competing hubs have raised the bar. MH might fly to LAX, but there is more money to be made stopping elsewhere.

I would like to see NRT become more competitive. But that would take another runway and terminal which is unlikely.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: SCQ83
Posted 2012-12-17 20:55:50 and read 8979 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size.

Not only has the fact that Japan no longer need to play the role as the Asia gateway with ever growing nonstop direct services, the economic malaise and demographic shifts in Japan have led to reduced travel demand for US flights.

Japan has a demographic shrink and there is less need to transfer in NRT to go to China or Korea (at least from major US cities with direct connections to those countries), but economic malaise? It has more likely to do with Japanese corporations turning to China and South East Asia as well... no need to go to America for business or holiday when the fastest growing region in the world is at Japan's doorstep.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
NRT has been in a terminal decline for years, if not decades.

Despite numbers to the US have been drowning consistently since the 90s, I wonder how this can be called a terminal decline... in 2013 NRT will have direct services to 18 US airports served by 8 airlines. I can't think of many (or any) airports that have or are to begin four international new TATL services from the US (BOS, DEN, SAN, SJC) with three different airlines (NH, JP, UA) in just slightly more than a year.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-17 22:32:19 and read 8399 times.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
but economic malaise?

Yes the economic malaise Japan has found itself in now in its second decade has created a situation where the lack of growth had led to a market without a catalyst to spur travel, keeping corporate and consumer demand down.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
I wonder how this can be called a terminal decline...

Here are some Japan-US travel stats:

Total traffic between US-Japan including 3rd country transit / of which is US or Japan O&D

1998 - 19,517,050 / 14,082,361 (1998 as far back as I have)
2000 - 19,895,806 / 15,248,725
2005 - 16,919,565 / 13,536,808
2010 - 13,309,056 / 10,773,156
2011 - 12,996,970 / 10,199,965

And so far for 2012 (thru July) traffic is down another 5.7%.


If you want to look at the LAX - Tokyo market specifically.

Total enplanements / of which O&D

2003 - 1,295,825 / 607,754
2011 - 1,101,245 / 596,086


On the opposite side of this coin the large growth of nonstop Transpac traffic from places like South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc..
For example, US-Korea produced mere 2.8mil travelers in 2000, but 5.4mil by 2011. Almost double.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: carpethead
Posted 2012-12-18 00:38:22 and read 7854 times.

KE has nothing smaller than the A332 that can make NRT-LAX, so I suppose it was the obvious decision.
To note, in the last few years, NH & DL have added HND-LAX, so the net number of daily flights will be one.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Total traffic between US-Japan including 3rd country transit / of which is US or Japan O&D

1998 - 19,517,050 / 14,082,361 (1998 as far back as I have)
2000 - 19,895,806 / 15,248,725
2005 - 16,919,565 / 13,536,808
2010 - 13,309,056 / 10,773,156
2011 - 12,996,970 / 10,199,965

The drop is largely related to dramatic decrease in tourist visiting the US.
1. Dealing with the TSA (enough said)
2. Application for entry into the US (EU and many Asian countires have no such measures- tourists want no such hassles)

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 15):
I would like to see NRT become more competitive. But that would take another runway and terminal which is unlikely.

Not to mention a curfew which has allowed NRT to drop numerous position in the cargo rankings.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-18 01:00:29 and read 7772 times.

Quoting carpethead (Reply 18):
1. Dealing with the TSA (enough said)
2. Application for entry into the US (EU and many Asian countires have no such measures- tourists want no such hassles)

Sorry, but, no.

I know people love to spout out the above nonsense, but it's not true. Japan's economy sucks and keeps on sucking more. Arrivals from elsewhere are up all round - even many European countries - and I assure you those transiting from outside of TWOV countries have much more hassle than Japanese travelers, who have virtually zero hassle flying to the U.S.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: TC957
Posted 2012-12-18 01:08:48 and read 7746 times.

It'll be interesting to see if KE will introduce more new services with the A332's that are being released from ICN-NRT-LAX schedules. Perhaps AMS will go daily next summer.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: klwright69
Posted 2012-12-18 04:51:23 and read 7041 times.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
Despite numbers to the US have been drowning consistently since the 90s, I wonder how this can be called a terminal decline... in 2013 NRT will have direct services to 18 US airports served by 8 airlines. I can't think of many (or any) airports that have or are to begin four international new TATL services from the US (BOS, DEN, SAN, SJC) with three different airlines (NH, JP, UA) in just slightly more than a year.

Maybe it's a gaining market share strategy.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-18 08:44:32 and read 6039 times.

As a good sign of how things have fallen, look back on JAL - once worlds largest operator of 747s, now does not operate a single frame. Similarly ANA has moved away from the 747.

The Japan medium/longhaul markets are now built on smaller types such as the 767/777 and now growing numbers of 787s. The passenger demand is simply not there anymore.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: ANA787
Posted 2012-12-18 09:14:12 and read 5876 times.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 20):
It'll be interesting to see if KE will introduce more new services with the A332's that are being released from ICN-NRT-LAX schedules. Perhaps AMS will go daily next summer.

BNE is also being discontinued so a few additional aircraft will be available. With these additional A330s I could see them opening up ICN-YYC/PDX services.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-18 10:47:33 and read 5454 times.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 21):
Maybe it's a gaining market share strategy.

I think its simply a splintering of the market made possible with a small long range model, similar to how the 767 helped splinter the Atlantic in the mid 1980s.

However one big difference is the Atlantic was a growing market, while Japan is a declining one.
I believe it will be interesting to see how many of these splintered routes will be sustainable and still around 5-years from now if the broader traffic decline between the nations continues. I mean look at JAL, they are down to mere single daily flights using smaller equipment already at key markets such as SFO and LAX where historically they maintained much higher activity.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: TakeOff
Posted 2012-12-18 13:17:21 and read 5108 times.

Quoting carpethead (Reply 18):
2. Application for entry into the US (EU and many Asian countires have no such measures- tourists want no such hassles)

Japan is in the Visa Waiver Program. Japanese citizens who wish to visit the U.S. don't need a visa to enter the country unless they plan to stay for longer than 90 days.
TakeOff

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: panamair
Posted 2012-12-18 14:06:29 and read 4985 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

The flight still carries the flight numbers KE001 and KE002, amazing they have nevers switched KE1 / 2 to a nonstop ICN-LAX service all this time.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-18 14:28:09 and read 5024 times.

Quoting TakeOff (Reply 25):
Japan is in the Visa Waiver Program. Japanese citizens who wish to visit the U.S. don't need a visa to enter the country unless they plan to stay for longer than 90 days.
TakeOff

Yeah, but one still needs to apply for ETSA. It's $14 and valid for two years. I believe it can be done online in a matter of 1-2 minutes.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: eta unknown
Posted 2012-12-18 14:56:02 and read 4958 times.

Quoting ANA787 (Reply 23):
BNE is also being discontinued so a few additional aircraft will be available

BNE stays, MEL goes.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: SCQ83
Posted 2012-12-18 15:05:58 and read 4930 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):

I have agreed in my first message that traffic was declining for years...I don't rebate those numbers. However this is not because the "terminal" Japanese economy as some have pointed but for a series of factors (more US-Asia direct services, demographic shrink in Japan, and both US and Japanese companies turning to South Asia instead of each other, Japanese tourists turning to other countries).

I would like to see same data for Japan-China/Korea/ASEAN.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2012-12-18 15:15:19 and read 4909 times.

Quoting Fly2yyz (Reply 13):
And I'm not sure, but was/is KE allowed to sell NRT-LAX-GRU for instance?

Yes, no problem.

Quoting Fly2yyz (Reply 13):
So is this official? I mean this is sorta like a prestige route for KE right?

That may have been true 40 years ago when Korea was still a small market, but these days those 5th freedom services are becoming fewer and fewer every year, and 5th freedom carriers usually generate lower yields. It also means operating a widebody ICN-NRT as the 5th freedom sector NRT-LAX has to be a continuation of a flight originating in Korea.

KE also has 5th freedom rights NRT-HNL and operated a daily ICN-NRT-HNL flight for many years but dropped that service a few years ago.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 27):
Quoting TakeOff (Reply 25):
Japan is in the Visa Waiver Program. Japanese citizens who wish to visit the U.S. don't need a visa to enter the country unless they plan to stay for longer than 90 days.
TakeOff

Yeah, but one still needs to apply for ETSA. It's $14 and valid for two years. I believe it can be done online in a matter of 1-2 minutes.

But ESTA (not ETSA) is still additional red tape that isn't needed to visit Europe, Canada and many other parts of the world. And very few of those countries photograph and fingerprint their visitors on arrival.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-18 16:38:40 and read 4782 times.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 29):
I have agreed in my first message that traffic was declining for years...I don't rebate those numbers. However this is not because the "terminal" Japanese economy as some have pointed but for a series of factors (more US-Asia direct services, demographic shrink in Japan, and both US and Japanese companies turning to South Asia instead of each other, Japanese tourists turning to other countries).

I would like to see same data for Japan-China/Korea/ASEAN.


Well here is total historic outbound Japanese tourism.

Seems to have peaked in 2000 and now sputtering and in decline.



=

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: SCQ83
Posted 2012-12-18 16:52:07 and read 4742 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 31):

This is getting so biased. The chart finishes in 2009, when international traffic plummet because of the global financial crisis. Take any US-Europe and let's see what happened in 2008/09. If you take 2006/2007, the number of Japanese travelling abroad were the 3rd/2nd highest in history. I am sure the tsunami has not helped to recover though.

Still the US-Japan traffic has been declining for much earlier than 2007, while the number of Japanese travelling internationally increased for much of the 2000s to almost all-time record high in 2006/07. So this chart actually proves very well my point some others' in this thread. The number of Japanese tourists and businessmen has not dramatically decreased (far from being terminal), yet they don't go to the US anymore and choose other destinations. Again, I am sure that if we get the numbers up to 2011/12, the combination of the 2008-2009 financial crisis and then the 2011 tsunami has not probably helped numbers to grow from the 2006/2007 highs.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-18 17:23:32 and read 4696 times.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 32):
This is getting so biased. The chart finishes in 2009, when international traffic plummet because of the global financial crisis.

Biased?

I'm showing you Japanese government data. The numbers are what they are. Outbound Japanese travel is hardly vibrant. It peaked back in 2000 after many decades of growth.

Compared to its Asian neighbors, Japan is in a holding pattern at best, and true decline using real numbers for the last several years.


If you want another data point - European Tourism stats show Japanese visitors were down at average annual rate of 2.8% between 2000-2010 to the bloc. Like US travel, another significant drop over the decade.

http://www.etc-corporate.org/resourc..._2011_trends_and_outlook-final.pdf

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: Fly2yyz
Posted 2012-12-19 05:29:54 and read 4340 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 30):
5th freedom carriers usually generate lower yields. It also means operating a widebody ICN-NRT as the 5th freedom sector NRT-LAX has to be a continuation of a flight originating in Korea.

This is definitely too bad if this is true.

I know that KE decided to do ICN-KIX-GUM recently and have been running it for a few months I believe. I guess with all the competition on NRT-LAX it was time. But maybe they can re attempt if LAX becomes the jumping point for LIM if it ever happens.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: klwright69
Posted 2012-12-19 05:58:11 and read 4310 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 30):
That may have been true 40 years ago when Korea was still a small market, but these days those 5th freedom services are becoming fewer and fewer every year, and 5th freedom carriers usually generate lower yields.

I am sure he's right. Like how Kuwait Airlines has rock bottom fares on JFK-LHR.

I think DEN-NRT will work. DEN has always been underserver internationally. This is really changing, and it took longer than expected.

Anyway, I did not think all these carriers would last on LAX-NRT. Some predicted MH would be the casualty.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: HeeseokKoo
Posted 2012-12-25 22:38:55 and read 3384 times.

KE001/002 was initially started as Seoul-Tokyo-HNL-LAX at Apr 1972 as KE's first transpacific passenger regular flight. And according to KE website, from Mar 1989, it changed to Seoul-Tokyo-LAX. Now, interestingly, KE001/002 is coming back to HNL. Systems show new schedule although currently zero'ed out.

Until Mar 30th, daily A332, (F6C24Y188)
KE001 ICN-NRT-LAX 1110-1325, 1455-0845
KE002 LAX-NRT-ICN 1105-1520+1, 1700-1940

From Mar 31st, daily A333, (F6C18Y252)
KE001 ICN-NRT-HNL 1740-2000, 2120-0930
KE002 HNL-NRT-ICN 1110-1520+1, 1700-1940

NRT-LAX is officially canceled. But Tokyo-HNL is yet another super competitive route. Newer ICN-NRT schedule is better, though.

Topic: RE: KE Dropping LAX-NRT?
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2012-12-26 09:24:42 and read 2990 times.

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 36):
But Tokyo-HNL is yet another super competitive route.

Yes also competitive, however the Japan-beach markets seem to be doing well.

Both DL and UA have added capacity, while new player HA keep growing.

Much of this has been at the loss of JAL which as part of its reorganization and parking of 747s has lost quite a bit of market share on these routes.

I think KE sees a opportunity, and is going after it.


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