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Topic: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: columba
Posted 2012-12-26 05:23:58 and read 26938 times.

Hi, what does the future hold for Lufthansas A340 fleet. Will the -600s also be replaced with the 747-8I as LH also has options for 20 more ? They were rumors that some -600s might go to Swiss. But as nothing has come out of this rumor I believe if such plans have existed they have been droped.

Some of the -300s also have left the fleet being replaced with A333s on some routes. Two A343s went to the German Air Force and I believe two have ended up in Iran.

How many older A340s will leave the fleet in the next few months ?

[Edited 2012-12-26 05:25:34]

Topic: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: 2008matt
Posted 2012-12-26 06:44:05 and read 26170 times.

I think the 600s would look great in Swiss colours

Topic: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: aloges
Posted 2012-12-26 06:52:40 and read 25999 times.

Quoting columba (Thread starter):
How many older A340s will leave the fleet in the next few months ?

None, as far as I know. LH has one further A333 on order, but that one won't be delivered until 2014. The A343s will be reconfigured to a two-class layout, which means that LH will invest considerable amounts into new C class seats for that fleet. (source: lh-taufnamen.de) With that investment decided upon and bearing in mind that used A340s don't really sell like hotcakes, they may well be here to stay.   

Additionally, they do like to fly their aircraft until the end of their economic lifespans, which - I suppose - is just what they'll do with the A340s.

Quoting columba (Thread starter):
Will the -600s also be replaced with the 747-8I as LH also has options for 20 more ?

Odd... I do remember reading about those options, but they are not mentioned on the relevant corporate website:
http://investor-relations.lufthansa..../fakten-zum-unternehmen/fleet.html
However, the 748 is of course much bigger than the A346 - replacing the latter with the former would mean a pretty substantial growth strategy, which I don't see happening at the moment.

Topic: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: AirCanadaA330
Posted 2012-12-26 06:57:14 and read 25902 times.

I would assume the 747-8i are replacing the 747-400.

As for the 340-600 my guess is they will remain in the fleet until LH orders either the A350 or 787.

Quoting columba (Thread starter):
They were rumors that some -600s might go to Swiss.

I was hoping they might have sent some 340's to BMI, but sadly that never happened.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-12-26 07:33:57 and read 25192 times.

Quoting aloges (Reply 2):
However, the 748 is of course much bigger than the A346 - replacing the latter with the former would mean a pretty substantial growth strategy, which I don't see happening at the moment.

In terms of total seats, the 747-8 offers 17% greater capacity than the A340-600, which is not a huge step change assuming traffic continues to grow. The biggest delta is Business Class (the 747-8 has 53% more seats), but the difference in Economy is only 10% so LH could adjust those two as necessary (LH does have a high-Y 747-400 configuration).

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: nrt1011
Posted 2012-12-26 13:55:04 and read 20645 times.

These guys can do the economics of stay versus purchase, that should not be that dificult even though there are many variables. As someone said, the old 340's are worth as much as an 85 Chevy so keeping them around seems a good idea. Plus they are just great planes to fly in and I will happily fly on a 340 anytime.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: flyyul
Posted 2012-12-26 13:57:27 and read 20631 times.

I still think Lufthansa is kidding itself putting 221 seats on the A343/A333 family (8F/48C/165Y). There's only a handful of long-haul routes to secondary destinations that can support this kind of density.

Think of the cost advantage KLM has to attract global traffic by having a 292 seat A333 vs. LH's 221 A333/A343.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: aerorobnz
Posted 2012-12-26 13:59:34 and read 20594 times.

Scrap metal, or they will go into service with AR... 

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: milesrich
Posted 2012-12-26 14:35:10 and read 20182 times.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 7):
Scrap metal, or they will go into service with AR... 

I was thinking Air Tahiti Nui might want them.  

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: aerorobnz
Posted 2012-12-26 15:03:01 and read 19800 times.

Quoting milesrich (Reply 8):
I was thinking Air Tahiti Nui might want them

TN have too many 343s already - they're trying to get rid of theirs(which are quite new as far as 343s go), AR on the other hand is the only airline in the non-politically sanctioned world that is buying 343s (and some old construction numbers too 48,93,94,123,126,128 from between 94-96 and a similar age to many of LHs early machines)

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: transaeroyyz
Posted 2012-12-26 17:14:42 and read 18654 times.

Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2012-12-26 17:16:02 and read 18657 times.

Quoting transaeroyyz (Reply 10):
Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

They've already committed heavily to the A340 so they might as well wait for newer options (A350, 787, 777X).

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-26 17:27:46 and read 18563 times.

Based on what LH has historically done I would expect them to fly the A340's until it is no longer economically feasible to continue, and then they will go to the scrapyards. While they might not be the most economical planes in terms of fuel consumption they are not so bad that it is more economical to retire them prematurely, especially since nobody is likely to pay much for them.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: deltaflyertoo
Posted 2012-12-26 19:15:31 and read 17834 times.

Quoting transaeroyyz (Reply 10):
Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

According to LH they claim that as for the A340-600, it is just as efficient if not more as the 777-300. They claim they have world class engineering and over the next decade can continue to make improvements to the A346 to keep its costs equal to that of the 777-300.

Futhermore there is some misconception out there that the 777 is the god almighty over the A346 and this isn't true. It depends on the mission, the 773 does better on some routes and the A346 can do as well on others. Yes maintenance on 4 vs. 2 is more but at end of day the A346 is pretty competitive and LH has acknowleged that, therefore no need to order 777s at this point. In hindsight the success of the 773 over the A346 was all timing. Had the A346 been out 5 years earlier than I'm sure you'd see many more of the type.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: LTU330
Posted 2012-12-26 23:16:30 and read 16659 times.

I was under the impression that in 2013 the whole A340-600 fleet would eventually be transferred to MUC. I can't remember if it was information from a friend at LH Technik here or anything already published on the Airliners.net forum.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: steman
Posted 2012-12-27 00:29:09 and read 16205 times.

Quoting LTU330 (Reply 14):
Quoting LTU330 (Reply 14):
I was under the impression that in 2013 the whole A340-600 fleet would eventually be transferred to MUC. I can't remember if it was information from a friend at LH Technik here or anything already published on the Airliners.net forum.

I heard that too, as well as switching the FRA based A343 to a two class configuration, convert some 744 to a two class configuration without First and use them on leisure and even charter routes.
But in LH nothing stays the same. They keep on changing their mind till they find the right solution.
They recently announced the introduction of a Premium Economy.
Will we see some A340 switch from F/C/Y to C/Y+/Y? Maybe.

I also believe the A343 will stay much longer. Maybe a couple more of the older frames will be withdrawn, just like it happens with the 744 but the bulk of them will soldier on.
The A346 will also stay for many more years, till the next generation of widebody twins will replace them.
I honestly think LH will end up ordering the A350-1000 to replace the A346.

Ciao
Stefano

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: bavair
Posted 2012-12-27 02:34:10 and read 15229 times.

Quoting steman (Reply 15):
I heard that too, as well as switching the FRA based A343 to a two class configuration, convert some 744 to a two class configuration without First and use them on leisure and even charter routes.
But in LH nothing stays the same. They keep on changing their mind till they find the right solution.
They recently announced the introduction of a Premium Economy.

I've read about statements along the same lines. If I remember correctly, the A343's are all to lose the First class while being transferred to FRA exclusively. MUC will get more A333 instead, the MUC hub continuing to have F on all widebodies.. But I guess nothing is set in stone until it happens and even then..

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: viasa
Posted 2012-12-27 03:42:29 and read 14698 times.

Two former LH A340s were delivered to Mahan Air (Iran) [via Chaba Air (Thailand), Manas Airways or Kyrgyz Trans Avia].

It's always interesting, that so many Lufthansa aircraft find a new home in Iran... there were 10 A300-600s, 2 A300-600Rs, 2 A310-300s and now 2 A340-300s delivered to Mahan Air!

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-27 03:50:28 and read 14632 times.

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 13):
Futhermore there is some misconception out there that the 777 is the god almighty over the A346 and this isn't true. It depends on the mission, the 773 does better on some routes and the A346 can do as well on others. Yes maintenance on 4 vs. 2 is more but at end of day the A346 is pretty competitive and LH has acknowleged that, therefore no need to order 777s at this point. In hindsight the success of the 773 over the A346 was all timing. Had the A346 been out 5 years earlier than I'm sure you'd see many more of the type.

In fact the A346 WAS out two years before the 77W (2002 for the A346 and 2004 for the 77W); it is curious that LH claims that the A346 is just as economical as the 77W (when they have never flown the 77W) and just about every other airline in the world who has compared the two has favored the 77W. This is not like the 737 vs. A320 where airlines seem to be pretty evenly divided; once the 77W entered service airlines voted overwhelmingly with their money for the 77W. Just about everyone acknowledges that on very select routes, especially those with hot-and-high destinations, the A346 does have an advantage, but those advantages have not been enough to blunt the overwhelming advantage that the 77W has enjoyed on a vast majority of routes. The order books speak for themselves; Boeing cannot build 77W's fast enough to keep up, and the A346 is no longer for sale. I believe what is really going on at LH is that they just do not want to retire the A340 before they have gotten full use out of them, and considering that there are no other airlines clamoring for them it is unlikely that they could sell them for very much. This is an absolutely sound and rational decision, and I am quite sure that the accountants have satisfied themselves that the fuel savings of going to more efficient aircraft will not be enough to compensate for the capital loss incurred by retiring the A340 fleet early. Anything LH says about the A346 being just as fuel efficient as the 77W is window dressing; if it was true than the A346 production line would be still going; maintenance costs alone would not be enough to have given the 77W the almost total victory in the sales battle.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: Someone83
Posted 2012-12-27 05:48:04 and read 13856 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
In terms of total seats, the 747-8 offers 17% greater capacity than the A340-600, which is not a huge step change assuming traffic continues to grow. The biggest delta is Business Class (the 747-8 has 53% more seats), but the difference in Economy is only 10% so LH could adjust those two as necessary (LH does have a high-Y 747-400 configuration).

But will all their 20 (or 19 + x options) be in the current high C config, or is there likely to be a low C config as well?

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: DABZF
Posted 2012-12-27 05:55:31 and read 13835 times.

Quoting transaeroyyz (Reply 10):
Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

... this has for long been the big question!
Lufthansa Cargo opted for the 777F although everyone else is bying the 748F and the same time LH is the only one flying 748.

I'm sure that there are reasons behind these decisions... just dont know them. Would be nice to know though 

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-27 06:12:52 and read 13763 times.

Quoting DABZF (Reply 20):
Quoting transaeroyyz (Reply 10):
Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

... this has for long been the big question!

It appears to me that LH opted early for the A343 for their long haul fleet (those that weren't 747's); when the 777 came out it did not offer enough of an advantage to LH to tempt them to switch. Then, when Airbus launched the A346 Boeing did not immediately counter, and LH made a major commitment to it. When Boeing came out later with the 77W (which they did largely in response to the A346) LH was already committed. Let's face it; without the 77W the A346 would probably have been an outstanding success; most of the airlines flying the 77W would likely have ordered it. And if the 77W had only met Boeing's expectations it is likely that the A346 and 77W would still be battling it out, much as the 737 and A320 are, but it exceeded everybody's expectations and has consequently driven the stake through the A346's heart. LH simply placed their bets too early, both with the A343 and A346, and hence had no room for the 777. Every airline makes some mistakes, and from what I have seen of LH they make fewer than most. This was one, but it is one that they can and will survive.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-27 06:14:04 and read 13755 times.

Quoting transaeroyyz (Reply 10):
Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

This has been discussed ad nauseum.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
In fact the A346 WAS out two years before the 77W (2002 for the A346 and 2004 for the 77W); it is curious that LH claims that the A346 is just as economical as the 77W (when they have never flown the 77W) and just about every other airline in the world who has compared the two has favored the 77W.

But LH had already commited to the A340 as their long haul type and as we know LH doesn't make these decisions lightly and they keep their planes around for 20+ years. All of that factors into the operating costs, not just the fuel burn. And how many of those "just about every other" airline had already comitted so heavily to the A340 before switching to the 777? Very few. So althought LH may seem unique in how they make the A340 work for them, there is some logic to it. The fact that they ordered A333's tells me that they are very well aware of the cost handicap of the A340.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
This is an absolutely sound and rational decision, and I am quite sure that the accountants have satisfied themselves that the fuel savings of going to more efficient aircraft will not be enough to compensate for the capital loss incurred by retiring the A340 fleet early.

Indeed, which for LH, makes the A346 just as efficient or more efficient than the 77W over the lifetime of the frame and spread across the fleet. In a few years the situation could be reversed. LH will be operating A350-1000's or 7810's while some the competition will still be flying relatively new but less efficient 777ER's and 777W's. Just like they are flying 748i's today while the competition is flying 744's. Their refresh cycle is simply offset from that of the competiton  

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: AA777223
Posted 2012-12-27 07:05:12 and read 13590 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
it is curious that LH claims that the A346 is just as economical as the 77W (when they have never flown the 77W)

I agree. As far as I can remember, only one airline in the world would really be able to give us a true operational comparison between the two - TG. EK could give us a sort of comparo between the A345 and the B77L, still not the same though. I think those are the only airlines I know of that fly both "NG" versions of the A340 and B777.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-27 07:41:12 and read 13461 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 22):

Indeed, which for LH, makes the A346 just as efficient or more efficient than the 77W over the lifetime of the frame and spread across the fleet.

Only in that they already had the A346 when the 77W proved how good it was. If LH had waited until the 77W was available I suspect that it would have made a lot more money for them than the A346 has. But once they had committed to the A346 the picture changed, and they had to recoup the investment. Tossing it down the toilet certainly was not an option.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: flyyul
Posted 2012-12-27 08:54:51 and read 13713 times.

LH needs to improve density on the A343/A333 fleet to get optimal results. Imagine they put Y+ without reducing F/J cabin!

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: UALWN
Posted 2012-12-27 10:30:16 and read 13517 times.

Quoting transaeroyyz (Reply 10):
Why does LH keep ignoring the 777, I mean every major airline has them!

Of the top of my head, here are some major airlines without 777s: LH, LX, IB, SK, AY, QF, SA, LA, US

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2012-12-27 10:39:27 and read 13812 times.

This thread was started in order to discuss LH's A340 fleet. Some users are intent in turning the thread into an Airbus versus Boeing flamefest, which will not be tolerated. Kindly stick to the topic at hand, which is the discussion of LH’s A340 fleet, or run the risk of the thread being locked for further discussion.

Thank you for your co-operation in this regard.

SA7700

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-27 11:34:37 and read 13633 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 24):
Only in that they already had the A346 when the 77W proved how good it was.

It's not just an A346 vs B77W decision. It was an A340 vs. 777 fleet. The decision was made when LH committed to being a launch customer. That by itself might have given LH (and AF), an aquisition price incredibly good. LH was also an operator of the A300 which they loved so ordering the A340 must have been a very easy decision to make given that the alternative at the time was the MD-11 (which LH also operated).

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-27 11:50:18 and read 13538 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 28):
It's not just an A346 vs B77W decision. It was an A340 vs. 777 fleet.

Quite true, and I intended to convey this, but did not state it explicitly. Up until the 77W proved itself to be as good as it was, there really was no convincing evidence that they had made the wrong choice. And since the A346 was launched with no indication from Boeing that they were going to counter it, at the time it looked like a very good move for LH to jump on board. And, again, it was not a disastrous move, and the A346 in fact is an extremely good plane. It's just that the 77W has proved itself to be better.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2012-12-27 13:25:55 and read 13335 times.

The 2-4-2 seating is very popular, and gives LH a huge advantage over AFs 3-4-3 on the 77W. LH is making lots of money on its long range routes, and this is not the A380 alone nore the few B748I, but the A340 contribute a lot.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: ymincrement
Posted 2012-12-27 13:33:10 and read 13280 times.

I think 777 has not proved its succes yet for LH. Also for customers like me who do not feel confortable in long haul flights 4 engine are better then 2 especially when passing atlentic ocean  

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: flyyul
Posted 2012-12-27 13:34:25 and read 13310 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 30):
The 2-4-2 seating is very popular, and gives LH a huge advantage over AFs 3-4-3 on the 77W. LH is making lots of money on its long range routes, and this is not the A380 alone nore the few B748I, but the A340 contribute a lot.

Not entirely true. They'll be the first to tell you that the A333/A343 fleet is underwhelming

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-27 13:39:19 and read 13259 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 30):
The 2-4-2 seating is very popular, and gives LH a huge advantage over AFs 3-4-3 on the 77W.

I don't believe that enough passengers book on the basis of aircraft types to make a huge difference; what I do know is that my sister, who has lived in Germany for almost 40 years and flies a lot, once booked AF because it was cheaper; never again. I will not go into details, but the AF personnel were far more decisive in her and her husband returning to LH than any differences in aircraft. So I think LH has a lot more advantage over AF than more comfortable aircraft.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: irshava
Posted 2012-12-27 18:27:50 and read 12900 times.

Quoting viasa (Reply 17):
It's always interesting, that so many Lufthansa aircraft find a new home in Iran... there were 10 A300-600s, 2 A300-600Rs, 2 A310-300s and now 2 A340-300s delivered to Mahan Air!

Courtesy to Ukrainian oligarchs who purchase these old birds and offload them into sanctioned countries who can't otherwise acquire aircraft and/or parts.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: VC10er
Posted 2012-12-27 20:04:48 and read 12806 times.

This year I flew an LH A343 from GIG to FRA in First. Their new First Class which was among the best flying experiences ever. I would assume that to/from Rio a 2 class version would be fine, so long as it has the new C class.. otherwise I think their angled flats would be a disaster. Will the A346 also remove First? Deep South America are some of their longest routes- and I think they stopped 747's to Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires and Santiago. I only see the A340-6 at GRU?

Also, would their moving to 2 class on A340's impact the enormously expensive new First Class lounges?

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-12-27 20:35:42 and read 12702 times.

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 23):
I think those are the only airlines I know of that fly both "NG" versions of the A340 and B777.

CX, SQ, EY and QR spring to mind. MU will join the cub soon.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: steman
Posted 2012-12-27 21:23:14 and read 12634 times.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 35):
I think they stopped 747's to Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires and Santiago. I only see the A340-6 at GRU?

GRU and EZE are still served with 744, at least from FRA. Not sure if there are flights ex MUC to these destinations
SCL is not served anymore directly by LH

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2012-12-27 21:57:35 and read 12616 times.

I think LH will just keep their A343's and A346's until their operational lives run out. After all, I believe most of them are already paid for or are on long-term leases and they have done excellent service for the airline. Indeed, I expect LH to probably assign an A343 to a potential BER-IAD route (this to serve government workers between the German capital of Berlin and the US capital of Washington, DC) within 18 months.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: steman
Posted 2012-12-28 00:10:30 and read 12435 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 38):
I expect LH to probably assign an A343 to a potential BER-IAD route (this to serve government workers between the German capital of Berlin and the US capital of Washington, DC) within 18 months.

LH already tried this route in the past and it didn´t work.
Moreover in 18 months BER might not yet be ready.
There isn´t enough government traffic that goes through normal airline service between Germany and the USA to justify
such a route.
Nevertheless it is possible that LH will reposition part of its A340 fleet among the three german hubs of FRA, MUC and DUS (if one consider DUS a hub).
At the time of "LH Italia" there were talks of basing some A343 in MXP to operate long haul routes and feed them with LH Italia flights from the rest of Italy.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-12-28 07:39:50 and read 11887 times.

I've been lurking on this post and finally decided to comment. I see LH, in general, up-gauging their routes do to the slow rate of hub-airport expansion. This means a slow but steady up-gauging of the A346s. Probably as soon as the European economy starts to recover. I expect the A343s to be retired based on economics; some of that will be A333 availability and pricing unless LH goes with the A350 or 789.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
In terms of total seats, the 747-8 offers 17% greater capacity than the A340-600, which is not a huge step change assuming traffic continues to grow. The biggest delta is Business Class (the 747-8 has 53% more seats), but the difference in Economy is only 10% so LH could adjust those two as necessary (LH does have a high-Y 747-400 configuration).

The 748i also has a very tiny cost per flight difference than the A346.

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 19):
But will all their 20 (or 19 x options) be in the current high C config, or is there likely to be a low C config as well?

I would expect a low C eventually. The 'high C' is targeted to specific markets.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 33):
I don't believe that enough passengers book on the basis of aircraft types to make a huge difference;

100% agree. Only pilots and a.netters care. Neither group are enough of the paying market to matter.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-28 08:54:52 and read 11698 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 40):
100% agree. Only pilots and a.netters care. Neither group are enough of the paying market to matter.

I would say frequent fliers care too and those usually represent a disproportionately high amount of revenue for the airlines. There's a reason why even LH is now moving towards a Y+ cabin. They, and other airlines wouldn't do that if the people buying the tickets didn't know the difference.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2012-12-28 09:10:17 and read 11686 times.

Quoting steman (Reply 37):
GRU and EZE are still served with 744, at least from FRA. Not sure if there are flights ex MUC to these destinations
SCL is not served anymore directly by LH

They serve MUC-GRU with A343/A346. Currently A346.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 35):
This year I flew an LH A343 from GIG to FRA in First. Their new First Class which was among the best flying experiences ever. I would assume that to/from Rio a 2 class version would be fine, so long as it has the new C class..

F to GIG seems to be very popular. LH FRA-GIG is the only daily service from Europe with First Class to Rio and there's for sure a lot of European investment in Rio to justify it.

Quoting columba (Thread starter):
Hi, what does the future hold for Lufthansas A340 fleet.

With the new F and J products, i do believe they only need to decide about replacements in 5-10 years.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-28 09:17:41 and read 11656 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 41):
I would say frequent fliers care too and those usually represent a disproportionately high amount of revenue for the airlines.

Certainly this is true F & J flyers; but I suspect that most of them are more concerned with the seats themselves rather than what aircraft they are bolted into.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: LH506
Posted 2012-12-28 13:26:40 and read 11423 times.

[quote=SEPilot,reply=43][/

I care for seat and aircraft, because the busses usually do not have a middle seat in J, whereas many airlines offer this nice feature on their boeings.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-28 13:39:47 and read 11396 times.

Quoting LH506 (Reply 44):
I care for seat and aircraft, because the busses usually do not have a middle seat in J, whereas many airlines offer this nice feature on their boeings.

Yeah, but by being a member of this forum you are self-identifying yourself as an airplane nut and hence not a member of the vast majority of the traveling public to which I was referring.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-12-28 17:37:41 and read 11146 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 41):
I would say frequent fliers care too and those usually represent a disproportionately high amount of revenue for the airlines.

I was talking aircraft type. Half the frequent fliers I know mis-speak about which aircraft they fly. They do care about Y+ as you noted. They care about how many J seats are across and how quickly the booze is put in front of them. But an A340 vs. a 788?   

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: ferpe
Posted 2012-12-28 19:01:10 and read 11077 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 40):
The 748i also has a very tiny cost per flight difference than the A346.

This should be true, out of couriosity I modeled just how bad the 346 is vs 748m and 77W. I even threw in the 333 and the 343 in the end. I ran all of them on a 5500nm leg and compared the fuel cost per m2 and 1000nm flown to get rid of the seating discussion. They are all very similar at about 50-53 kg fuel per m2 (and therefore real world pax as it tends to 1 sear per m2 in real long-haul configs) except for one outlier, the 77W at 44 and one half, the 333 at 47.

So now we know why airlines buy the 77W and 333 when buying new to get them ASAP right now. But for Lufthansa flying the 333, 343, 346, 478 and 380 it is all horses for courses, they have all different payload-range capabilities with enough similar fuel costs so they put the frame on the route which fits the best re capacity and range capability.

So the ugly duckling 343 is right up there with the fancy new 748i when it comes to fuel burn per seat and they are all 4 holers so the engines maintenance costs is a wash or the glorified CFMs could even be a tad cheaper per m2-nm flown so LH might not be fools keeping them flying. There are a number of myths still around at A.net one being the 343 should be shot out of the sky for it's fuel burn, the other the 380 has a fantastic fuel burn per seat and the third, don't understand how LH and Virgin can still fly those gusslers 346. The only myth which holds water is that the 77W is 10% better then all of them if you can fill it, no wonder it sells as hot cakes until the 35J arrives and the 333 is in between.

The 380 lives on people loving to fly them (=load factor), not their fantastic fuel burn per seat, the fuel burn is smack on the same as the 346 if both have Rollers. Now that is no wonder, the T900 and 500 are only one generation apart in technology and the 346 is a tad lower in areo drag as the wings can spread without the 80m contraint the 380 has.

[Edited 2012-12-28 19:27:31]

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2012-12-28 21:50:34 and read 10941 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 47):
They are all very similar at about 50-53 kg fuel per m2 (and therefore real world pax as it tends to 1 sear per m2 in real long-haul configs) except for one outlier, the 77W at 44 and one half, the 333 at 47.

Interesting analysis. I'll have to do a bit of my own as I have the 748i doing a wee bit better than you typed. But the 77W and A333 are in line with expectations. The A380 has a higher fuel cost than the 77W but a lower CASM. So it is not just due to people loving the A380, there are other cost benefits to the big plane. IIRC, a 14% lower CASM.

I haven't seen an analysis at today's fuel prices for the total cost of flying all the big planes, but the 744 is definitely on the outs. High maintenance and high fuel burn.

But the 748i and A346 total cost per flight should not be very different. So I do expect the A346s to exit early. The question is, will they go through their first D-checks? It is too late to secure replacements, so the answer is almost certainly yes which means 10 to 12 more years of flying. So we'll see the type for a bit. But long term I could see 748i's replacing A346s. Partially as slots are getting so precious.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: nrt1011
Posted 2012-12-28 22:30:15 and read 10913 times.

Aircraft type is important to some people. Living in Australia and flying here, my choice is usually Qantas, Virgin or Jetstar. My #1 choice is always the QF 767 (or A330) no matter how old it is, my last choice is the 737 because I hate them a lot, (and so I never fly Virgin) finally is the A320 which I like very much. But I agree, I am the exception, others just fly whatever

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: ferpe
Posted 2012-12-29 03:59:06 and read 10699 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):
Interesting analysis. I'll have to do a bit of my own as I have the 748i doing a wee bit better than you typed.

Thanks for the doubting, you are right, in the haste I picked the spec numbers for the 380 and 748 and not the 5500nm numbers, below are the corrected numbers and also the block numbers, then everyone can divide with what they want.
Fuel is not all in the CASM but I think to some extent the numbers we get is just that, numbers. OEMs on to some extend airlines play with numbers and especially seating numbers, therefore I use cabin area and all this (ch)-eating  is avoided if I have measured the area correctly. For the A380 and 748i I have not done it myselves, I have relied on a guy that did a very thorough measurement from ACAP charts and publicized it recently on Leeham net as a commentary to a 748 vs 380 debate. You and others can do your cheating plan yourselves and divide the block fuels I have, here the more correct numbers:

Fuel count for 5500nm ESAD leg, std reserves:

Plane..........block fuel....m2.......kg/m2/knm
A333...........67.4t...........266..........46
A343...........76.5t...........266..........53
A346...........91.2t...........328..........50
77W............83.5t...........348..........44
748i...........108.5t...........415..........47
A380..........135.7...........545..........45

Now it all seems more plausible. The differences are within 10% more or less however, thereby my comment remains, horses for courses as you can see from the trip fuel differences that you can't put a 748i or a 346 to fly the leg where a 343 would suffice. The only frame that can be miss-used on shorter legs like 10 hours or below and still only loose some 5 tons of fuel (the 77W would be even lighter then with only 266 pax) vs a 343 is the 77W but this we know. As LH does not have this jack of all trades they keep their 343s as the 333 stops short of 10 hour+ legs.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-29 04:07:51 and read 10687 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 50):
Fuel count for 5500nm ESAD leg, std reserves:

Plane..........block fuel....m2.......kg/m2/knm
A333...........67.4t...........266..........46
A343...........76.5t...........266..........53
A346...........91.2t...........328..........50
77W............83.5t...........348..........44
748i...........108.5t...........415..........47
A380..........135.7...........545..........45

Very interesting. I did not realize that on any measure the 77W had better fuel economy than the A380; that certainly helps explain why it has been selling so well. Just for curiosity, do you have figures for the 744 and 787 to compare? But this chart also explains why the A330 continues to sell well, and why the 748i has not caught on at all.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: FLALEFTY
Posted 2012-12-29 09:15:45 and read 10391 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 50):
Fuel count for 5500nm ESAD leg, std reserves:

Plane..........block fuel....m2.......kg/m2/knm
A333...........67.4t...........266..........46
A343...........76.5t...........266..........53
A346...........91.2t...........328..........50
77W............83.5t...........348..........44
748i...........108.5t...........415..........47
A380..........135.7...........545..........45

This is good stuff. How would the old 744 rack up on this chart?

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: 330lover
Posted 2012-12-29 11:33:34 and read 10178 times.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 42):
LH FRA-GIG is the only daily service from Europe with First Class to Rio

Hi LipeGIG,

doesn't JJ have first class on their flights too? Or did this change?

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2012-12-29 11:53:41 and read 10139 times.

Quoting 330lover (Reply 53):
doesn't JJ have first class on their flights too? Or did this change?

JJ have First Class on their A330 flights as well, although they don't have daily FRA-GIG-FRA flights. According to the GDS they run 4x weekly flights between the cities.

Rgds,

SA7700

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: ferpe
Posted 2012-12-29 14:18:57 and read 9949 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 51):
Just for curiosity, do you have figures for the 744 and 787 to compare?

I have modeled the 787 range but not the 744, might do. Here the frames discussed + future candidates for replacement, the 787 frames have higher confidence then the A350 range as the first model has EIS and the others are derivatives. The 78J is the 251t/7700nm definition with T1000TEN engines:

Fuel count for 5500nm ESAD leg, std reserves:

Plane..........block fuel....m2.......kg/m2/knm
A333...........67.4t...........266..........46
A343...........76.5t...........266..........53
A346...........91.2t...........328..........50
77W............83.5t...........348..........44
748i...........108.5t...........415..........47
A380.........135.7t...........545..........45
788..............54.1t..........222..........43
789..............58.2t..........256..........40
78J..............61.7t..........286..........38
358..............56.8t..........245..........41
359..............60.2t..........281..........38
35J..............68.4t..........320..........38

[Edited 2012-12-29 14:21:23]

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: ferpe
Posted 2012-12-30 13:30:40 and read 9315 times.

So I have added the 747-400, it burns 59 kg per pax (or m2), one can understand why it is being replaced, especially if a 77W can take over the job at 44 kg per pax, that is a 25% fuel burn improvement.

Then the complete table looks like this:

Fuel count for 5500nm ESAD leg, std reserves:

Plane..........block fuel....m2.......kg/m2/knm
A333...........67.4t...........266..........46
A343...........76.5t...........266..........53
A346...........91.2t...........328..........50
77W............83.5t...........348..........44
744............111.6t...........345..........59
748i...........108.5t...........415..........47
A380.........135.7t...........545..........45
788..............54.1t..........222..........43
789..............58.2t..........256..........40
78J..............61.7t..........286..........38
358..............56.8t..........245..........41
359..............60.2t..........281..........38
35J..............68.4t..........320..........38

The table is not 100% correct, for the normal DA I have not compensated for the tapering at the front and the tail, I have until now only taken cabin length * cabin width. I have measured the missing areas now and I am implementing it going forward. If you deduce 10m2 from all the normal DA you have the true usefull cabin area (this is the true effect of the tapering, funny enough it is the same for the 787, 777, 330/340 and 350 within a m2 or two). Reduce the area and divide the block burn and you have an exacter pax burn, it will change things some 2-3% ie the table stays the same. The A380, 744 and 748 areas are true useful area and I have verified the measurement by signature OV-099 on Leeham.net, he seems to have done a fine job.

[Edited 2012-12-30 14:09:13]

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: 330lover
Posted 2012-12-31 02:09:13 and read 8747 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 54):
JJ have First Class on their A330 flights as well, although they don't have daily FRA-GIG-FRA flights. According to the GDS they run 4x weekly flights between the cities.

Right, missed the 'daily' in the post. My bad!

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2012-12-31 04:10:00 and read 8549 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 56):

Fuel count for 5500nm ESAD leg, std reserves:

Plane..........block fuel....m2.......kg/m2/knm
A333...........67.4t...........266..........46
A343...........76.5t...........266..........53
A346...........91.2t...........328..........50
77W............83.5t...........348..........44
744............111.6t...........345..........59
748i...........108.5t...........415..........47
A380.........135.7t...........545..........45
788..............54.1t..........222..........43
789..............58.2t..........256..........40
78J..............61.7t..........286..........38
358..............56.8t..........245..........41
359..............60.2t..........281..........38
35J..............68.4t..........320..........38

Thanks for the effort. Of course the A350 figures are theoretical (which is why I did not include them in my request.) It may perform better (or worse) than that; and since most new aircraft (A340NG excepted) seem to beat expectations, it will be very interesting to see what it actually does once it makes it into service.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: ferpe
Posted 2012-12-31 10:09:10 and read 8071 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 58):
Of course the A350 figures are theoretical

They are as the bird has not flown yet. I have modeled them based on the info A have given. One has to understand an OEM gives away quite a lot when they give you the spec mission, ie A with 8100nm for the A359 with 314 pax. One have the start weight (MTOW), the payload (314 * 95kg for Airbus), the reserves (regulatory, can be calculated), therefore one can easily deduce the block fuel used on that mission if one can guess the OEW. This is guessed at around 135-136t since quite some time. A have also said the TXWB is specked 2% better in fuel burn (TSFC) then the T1000 and that TSFC we have (0.53 installed at FL380 given by PianoX), so the TXWB shall consume about 0.52 at M 0.85 and FL380. Then we have wing-area, span, surface areas etc so one can estimate the drag............... , bottom line one knows enough to guess within say 5% how the bird behaves.

Re how good it will turn out, there are many chances for the A350 to get below spec, more then above I would say. Normally the engines come out some % short but this seem not to be the case this time (conservatively specked compared to T1000/GEnx1 I would say) but the frame is overweight, this A have admitted. Right now the early birds seem to weight 138-139t instead of 135-136t. In that case they fly 7800nm if everything else is one spec, on the A380 the overweight got alleviated by areo which came in above spec but not for other A birds IIRC.

We will see, it is an exciting year ahead   .

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2012-12-31 11:15:39 and read 7931 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 46):
I was talking aircraft type. Half the frequent fliers I know mis-speak about which aircraft they fly. They do care about Y+ as you noted. They care about how many J seats are across and how quickly the booze is put in front of them. But an A340 vs. a 788?

There aren't enough 787's flying around yet, to give passengers the alternative. But I do believe that a lot of frequent fliers do know that a) on the A340 they have less of a chance of getting a middle seat, and b) the A340 has a quieter cabin. I believe most people who spend every other week flying across the globe will know that. Whether that's enough to sway them in one direction or another I don't know.

Topic: RE: The Future Of Lufthansa´s A340 Fleet?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-01 10:53:07 and read 7382 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 56):
The A380, 744 and 748 areas are true useful area and I have verified the measurement by signature OV-099 on Leeham.net, he seems to have done a fine job.

First, thank you for presenting your analysis.
Which would make the others a little 'optimistic,' in particular on the A333 which has the taper start earlier.

One can see why airlines bought the A346 over the 744 but also why the twins have taken over. There are other costs. e..g, older 747s have D-checks required more often than the 748 will need them.

Lightsaber


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