Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5648403/

Topic: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: af773atmsp
Posted 2012-12-31 21:05:49 and read 16860 times.

http://www.startribune.com/local/185343962.html?page=3&c=y

The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) is apparently offering incentives to any carrier that starts non-stop flights from MSP to Hawaii. The article also mentions the upcoming AF CDG-MSP service, and attracting B6 to start service at MSP.

If I remember correctly DL dropped HNL-MSP service a couple years ago. It seems like this route was always a success for NW, but I'm not sure what the passenger loads were for DL. So with this incentive would DL be interested in restarting HNL-MSP, or if we're really lucky HA will begin flights to MSP? Not sure if SY could fly non-stop MSP-HNL with a 737.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: point2point
Posted 2012-12-31 21:16:30 and read 16825 times.

Minnesotans definitely need lots of sun flights in the wintertime time from there...... probably can't get enough of them, and a daily to HNL I would think is something that has the prospect to do (and probably did) quite well.

So if there are incentives........ and DL discontinued this flight (maybe to feed the SLC traffic?), well......HA maybe?

 

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: ck8msp
Posted 2012-12-31 21:18:37 and read 16807 times.

I wonder what DL response would be if HA decided to try this route? What about a codeshare with Alaska?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: SANFan
Posted 2012-12-31 21:41:51 and read 16696 times.

I believe MSP is one of the largest Hawaiian markets without nonstop service at this time so it doesn't seem too far fetched to expect it to happen sometime in the foreseeable future. DL or HA would seem like the likely cx to consider it but HA might want to add a few larger markets first (such as ORD or DEN) rather than a smaller un-served market such as MSP.

And as for DL, their experiment of a few years ago with MSP and SAN to HNL was a quick and odd failure. (As for SAN, most of us here are still scratching our heads about it. Since then, AS has jumped in and seems to have no problem profitably filling multiple flights in the market.) MSP, being a major hub, is also very hard to figure out.

The incentives offered by MSP could tip the scales enough to get someone willing to try the market again. Good luck!

bb

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2012-12-31 21:50:15 and read 16655 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
DL or HA would seem like the likely cx to consider it but HA might want to add a few larger markets first (such as ORD or DEN)

How is DEN a bigger market? MSP has over a million more people in its metro area than DEN does.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2012-12-31 22:14:13 and read 16540 times.

The DEN HA service would serve up into Wyoming and all of Colorado. Also, West Kansas. That gets pretty big.

The Denver metronome area stats don't include Boulder and Fort Collins, both of which use DEN. Also, some people between COS and DEN use DEN, and COS connections. Add in the fact that Colorado is overall slightly more affluent, and service starts to make sense. Small areas and unimportant Airports don't get 50 million pax in a year.

However, we travel on a budget. We fly for leisure a fair amount, but we fly economy. Add in the highway robbery airport fees at DEN and it becomes a large, low-yield market. Also, UA has Hawaii service, IIRC. The market is there, but the yield might not be.

ORD has a wee bit of competition. That said, HA can't go and skip it.

I think ORD and MSP are the next two HA markets, followed soon in the order by DEN. The MSP winter is so fun people want to go to Hawaii. With the restructuring and merger, it made sense as a company for DL to cut MSP-HNL. But it will be served soonish, so DL might want to be ready to try and kill the HA service when it comes rolling in.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2012-12-31 22:16:22 and read 16526 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 4):
Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
DL or HA would seem like the likely cx to consider it but HA might want to add a few larger markets first (such as ORD or DEN)

How is DEN a bigger market? MSP has over a million more people in its metro area than DEN does.

DEN is the 5th largest airport per passenger volume at 25,667,499 vs MSP in the 16th spot at only 15,895,653 passenger volume. This according to the 2011 numbers.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2012-12-31 22:25:47 and read 16494 times.

Pax numbers don't mean large cities. ATL isn't the largest city. Its an overly massive hub. DEN is one of the UA and WN main transfer points, and the largest F9 hub. And the DEN MSA numbers don't accurately reflect the actual market size. DEN is the only major airport for a few hundred miles north and east. COS to the south, some Wyoming airfields to the north, a few EAS airfields in west Kansas, and EGE/ASE to the west. And those Airports don't really take a ton of pax from DEN.

What equipment was previously operated by DL MSP-ATL?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2012-12-31 22:33:08 and read 16461 times.

A330 which during it's short life alternated between MSP and DTW.

And pax numbers have everything to do with planning new cities. If you are going to start a new route, you need to have to not only rely on O&D traffic, but connecting as well. The fact that DEN had 10 mil more passengers go through it's airport could play a significant factor as to where they start that flight.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2012-12-31 22:47:00 and read 16415 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 7):

DEN is the 5th largest airport per passenger volume at 25,667,499 vs MSP in the 16th spot at only 15,895,653 passenger volume. This according to the 2011 numbers.

I thought we were talking O&D for flight(s) to HNL. DEN enjoys its 5th largest 'status' from very frequent F9 and WN movements. Kudos to them, but DEN is not bigger than MSP from every metric. MSP has far more international service with direct flights CDG, AMS, and NRT all on DL, and soon to be CDG on AF and likely ICN on KE beginning early 2014. DEN has none of these, or any service over-ocean outside of LHR on BA and KEF on FI, both of which MSP also has on DL and FI.

MSP-ATL is still many many times per day on a variety of metal as it is fortress hub to fortress hub.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2012-12-31 22:49:33 and read 16407 times.

Yes, I believe DEN is a large airport. Pax amount matters for starting flights. But pax amounts doesn't always reflect city, MSA, or catchement area size, which can differ.

The problem with DEN service is that ever since the new airport opened it is a been a quite low yielding airport. It works OK under the right situation, but the fees are insane. It is literally $16 or $17 per 1,000 pounds of Max Landing weight. Some major Airports are as low as $1 or $2, and many are $3/$4. And that's just one fee. Wait until see how much a gate costs.

MSP will probably be higher yielding due to lack of competition (unless DL launches it 2 days later), and down to earth fees. Maybe HA will start with ORD, add winter seasonal MSP, year round DEN, then year round MSP?

They can't just ignore two of the top busiest Airports in the US, so DEN and ORD will receive service at some point. But CURRENTLY MSP is a large niche market that is unserved. We might end up with HA to ORD and DEN and DL on MSP. But HA will most likely launch the route at some point, or DL as a chance to get the edge on HA.

One issue for DL is spare widebodies. Where do you find them?

MSP will receive HNL service in my opinion, and probably fairly soon. The carrier(s) and equipment are yet to be discovered.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: cbphoto
Posted 2012-12-31 23:39:25 and read 16227 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 9):
MSP has far more international service with direct flights CDG, AMS, and NRT all on DL, and soon to be CDG on AF and likely ICN on KE beginning early 2014. DEN has none of these, or any service over-ocean outside of LHR on BA and KEF on FI, both of which MSP also has on DL and FI.

Don't forget DEN has LH to FRA and soon to have NRT on UA.

As for ICN on KE, has anything publicly been stated, or is it an A-net pipe dream?

I do agree, HNL is a huge hole in the MSP network and it will only be a matter of time before it is filled. Don't be surprised to see HA get little to no response from DL, as it seems lately DL doesn't care too much about new airlines flying into MSP! Then again, we could have HA and DL flying A330s non stop from HNL to MSP!

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2012-12-31 23:57:48 and read 16179 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 10):
MSP will receive HNL service in my opinion, and probably fairly soon. The carrier(s) and equipment are yet to be discovered.

MSP has had HNL flights in the past, with DL A330s.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 9):
DEN enjoys its 5th largest 'status' from very frequent F9 and WN movements.

To me that would be the biggest drivers, especially if Hawaiian Airlines is looking for a variety of passengers. People who fly DL on a consistent basis will usually look for DL to DL metal first before looking at other options.

DEN has quite a few international destinations, outside the typical America's run, you have LH to FRA, BA to LHR, UA is restarting the TYO route sometime mid march.

That being said, Hawaii is generally not the first choice when it comes to European's vacation plans, simply because of the amount of travel involved. So international travel from Europe won't be a huge factor. And those coming from Asia can find a multitude of other ways of getting to HNL other than MSP.

So even though DEN has Frontier and Southwest/Airtran boosting them up to the #5 spot, that would be the catchment group of passengers that HA would be willing to look at, rather than a predominately DL hub. DL tried it and it failed miserably. Not sure how HA would do any better

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-01 00:01:36 and read 16168 times.

Quoting af773atmsp (Thread starter):
If I remember correctly DL dropped HNL-MSP service a couple years ago. It seems like this route was always a success for NW, but I'm not sure what the passenger loads were for DL. So with this incentive would DL be interested in restarting HNL-MSP, or if we're really lucky HA will begin flights to MSP? Not sure if SY could fly non-stop MSP-HNL with a 737.
Quoting ck8msp (Reply 2):
I wonder what DL response would be if HA decided to try this route? What about a codeshare with Alaska?

HA and DL do mileage transfers, so I think HA could do this route easily. I think it would be a good route for HA actually. That area is a highly under-served lucrative market to the islands

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-01 00:16:40 and read 16114 times.

I'm a little disappointed DL hasn't returned in the MSP-HNL market. NW flew it with DC-10's for a long time before the merger, mostly daily over the years year around IIRC.

Quoting af773atmsp (Thread starter):
sure if SY could fly non-stop MSP-HNL with a 737.

Little too far for a full payload.

Quoting af773atmsp (Thread starter):
So with this incentive would DL be interested in restarting HNL-MSP, or if we're really lucky HA will begin flights to MSP?
HA would be pretty sweet to see in MSP. I'm sure DL would do better with connecting feed however, even with HA offering connections to the islands in Hawaii.

Quoting af773atmsp (Thread starter):
and attracting B6 to start service at MSP.

Hmm, JFK or BOS perhaps? I wouldn't think Florida service but you never know. SY runs year around service to both those destinations plus DL has multiple frequencies on both MSP-JFK and MSP-BOS.

[Edited 2013-01-01 00:20:18]

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2013-01-01 00:18:04 and read 16113 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 13):
HA and DL do mileage transfers, so I think HA could do this route easily. I think it would be a good route for HA actually. That area is a highly under-served lucrative market to the islands

The DL and HA is an extremely weird partnership. No US Mainland, Korea, or Japan count towards bonus mileage accrual. The only places besides inter-island flights are SYD, PPT, MNL and Pago. Above all, none are counted for MQMs.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LV
Posted 2013-01-01 00:21:48 and read 16100 times.

I wonder if HA and DL could side a codeshare agreement a la AS?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-01 00:31:05 and read 16072 times.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 15):
The DL and HA is an extremely weird partnership. No US Mainland, Korea, or Japan count towards bonus mileage accrual. The only places besides inter-island flights are SYD, PPT, MNL and Pago. Above all, none are counted for MQMs.

?? Japan does count. I asked when i was about to book an HNL-HND flight earlier this year (those plans got scrapped when my schedule changed) and HA said that I could earn Sky Miles on that. DL also said I would too.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2013-01-01 00:49:57 and read 16031 times.

This is a link from delta.com's website about accrual with HA:

http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_...rs/airlines/hawaiian-airlines.html

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Drmlnr1
Posted 2013-01-01 06:29:19 and read 15056 times.

B6 to MSP would be awesome! Being located near SAN and having family near MSP I would definitely consider B6 for my travel. As far as HNL goes, I think DL still operates to HNL from MSP albeit with a stop. If someone could convince DL to change it to non-stop, then DL will make money on that route. I do see that route operated by the 787 once DL gets theirs in the 2020's.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-01 06:51:34 and read 14891 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
I believe MSP is one of the largest Hawaiian markets without nonstop service at this time so it doesn't seem too far fetched to expect it to happen sometime in the foreseeable future. DL or HA would seem like the likely cx to consider it but HA might want to add a few larger markets first (such as ORD or DEN) rather than a smaller un-served market such as MSP.

You would be living in a dream world if you think that it would be profitable. Most government subsidies are to get businesses to locate in their areas or to service the businesses in their area. They don't go out and subsidize operations that don't make sense as a whole. What benefit to Minneapolis would subsidizing a flight to HNL, a place that has little to no economic benefit to the MSP area. Yes, it would be nice to have a non-stop service to HNL, and I am one that would really love to have a faster way to get to my parents home in YXU. It just doesn't make sense economically to the region. You can dream but that all it will ever be, a dream.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-01-01 07:28:55 and read 14586 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 20):
Most government subsidies are to get businesses to locate in their areas or to service the businesses in their area.


This is not a government subsidy, but a Metro Airport Commission subsidy. The Airport commission operates as its own entity

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: SESGDL
Posted 2013-01-01 09:36:34 and read 13668 times.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 8):
And pax numbers have everything to do with planning new cities. If you are going to start a new route, you need to have to not only rely on O&D traffic, but connecting as well. The fact that DEN had 10 mil more passengers go through it's airport could play a significant factor as to where they start that flight.

Those passengers were divided between 3 hub airlines, MSP functions as a larger hub with DL than any singular airline at DEN.

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 11):
As for ICN on KE, has anything publicly been stated, or is it an A-net pipe dream?

O&D has grown by leaps and bounds between MSP-ICN, and with downguaging of equipment between NRT-ICN and less reliance on NRT as a connecting point, as well as the relationship with KE, it's only a matter of time before MSP-ICN is started. ICN is one of the largest transpacific markets from MSP, along with NRT and PVG. I think ICN will start sometime before EOY-2014, especially since this is a market that can be served by an A330 rather than a 777 or something larger.

Jeremy

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-01-01 09:43:39 and read 13605 times.

The Airports often will cut fees on certain new routes to attract a carrier to start them. Often, there are certain requirements about previous service and other things. But I'm pretty sure that MSP-HNL would qualify for HA. I'm not sure about DL because they flew the route previously.

As far as international connections, DEN will soon have 4 intercontinental flights: KEF, LHR, FRA, and NRT. And why wpuld anyone at all fly HNL-DEN-NRT? ORD obviously has loads more, and MSP has IIRC KEF, LHR, NRT, AMS, CDG. So international connections won't get HA to DEN. WN and F9 have a variety of Mexican and a few Caribbean destinations, but I think all can be reached from ORD, MSP, or cities where there is already HA service.

Also, the DL 787 situation is a mess. Most people, me included, think they will switch the order to the -9. And the 787 is better for Longer haul and bigger name routes than MSP-HNL. However, with the amount of 767/A330 routes it will take, one of those two could start HNL-MSP for DL.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: BA
Posted 2013-01-01 09:45:22 and read 13587 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 10):
The problem with DEN service is that ever since the new airport opened it is a been a quite low yielding airport.

Actually, DEN used to be a high yielding airport up until about 10 years ago. In 2000, United had a 66% market share compared to its current 40% market share. Back then, DEN had no Southwest service and Frontier was a small carrier that posed no real threat to United.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-01-01 09:49:28 and read 13960 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 23):
Also, the DL 787 situation is a mess. Most people, me included, think they will switch the order to the -9. And the 787 is better for Longer haul and bigger name routes




I hardly consider the Delta 787 situation a mess, at least not to Delta management. The Aircraft came in overweight and unable to perform to its promised abilities.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-01-01 09:55:20 and read 13841 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 20):
You would be living in a dream world if you think that it would be profitable. Most government subsidies are to get businesses to locate in their areas or to service the businesses in their area. They don't go out and subsidize operations that don't make sense as a whole. What benefit to Minneapolis would subsidizing a flight to HNL, a place that has little to no economic benefit to the MSP area. Yes, it would be nice to have a non-stop service to HNL, and I am one that would really love to have a faster way to get to my parents home in YXU. It just doesn't make sense economically to the region. You can dream but that all it will ever be, a dream.

Believe it or not but the nuts in Washington have been "subsidizing" air fares on unprofitable routes for years! Whether they benefit the local community is a question of what flavor " pork" your congressman and constituents like!
http://www.dot.gov/policy/aviation-p...-air-service/essential-air-service

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-01-01 09:56:21 and read 13998 times.

True about the service 10 yeas ago. But for foreign or new carriers starting in, the fees were not very attractive, especially if you weren't star Alliance. Many routes have received incentives, but HNL on HA won't, because UA already serves the route. It currently costs over $6,000 to land a 332 in DEN just once.

It costs just under $1,000 to land a 332 in MSP. Add in incentives. Now who looks more attractive?

The fact that the 788 came in overweight is part of what caused the mess. Many say that DL ordered the -8 to get slots for -9 models cheaper. And with all the delivery put offs, it isn't the most stable aircraft or even 787 order. And when DL does get the 787, I doubt they will use it to start MSP-HNL.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-01-01 10:10:05 and read 13858 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
I believe MSP is one of the largest Hawaiian markets without nonstop service at this time...

Just to clarify, I meant that MSP-Hawaii is one of the largest Hawaii-mainland markets with no nonstop service now. The latest info that I have is 2012 Hawaii pax numbers thru Apr and MSP is the 12th largest market; the top 11 markets all have nonstop service on at least one carrier, as do the 13th and 14th largest markets! (This is preliminary data and covers only 4 months of 2012 so I know it's not complete.) And of course this is talking only O&D traffic and doesn't include all the connecting traffic that would flow thru the Twin Cities on DL...

I was not talking about how big MSP is as a metro area, or how it compares to DEN's overall pax traffic, or anything else. My point is that MSP appears to be perhaps the largest US mainland airport with a substantial amount of Hawaii-bound traffic that does NOT currently have nonstop air service to the Islands. However, that doesn't mean to me that HA will serve that market before picking up some other larger Hawaii markets first, such as DEN or CHI (even though they already have nonstop service to HNL on other cx.)

I hope this clarifies my comments. Happy 2013 everyone!

bb

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Continental
Posted 2013-01-01 10:12:10 and read 13810 times.

I am more impressed by the new and surprisingly good food options going to Terminal 2. I could really care less, but man is that terminal bare post-security!

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-01-01 10:17:06 and read 13813 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 14):
I'm a little disappointed DL hasn't returned in the MSP-HNL market. NW flew it with DC-10's for a long time before the merger, mostly daily over the years year around IIRC.

At peak periods, around 2004, NW had double daily MSP-HNL on DC-10 plus a daily DTW-HNL. This was for holiday peak weeks. Imagine all the fuel. And, MSP was a 747 before that.

The route has potential. I am a little surprised it is not a 763ER route now. One factor may be, everybody used to hit OGG and LIH via HNL transfer. Nowadays, you can transfer on the West Coast and on to your final island destination. Not sure which is preferable. MSP locals might prefer the HNL nonstop. Flow traffic to outer islands will no doubt prefer US Airways at PHX, or UA at SFO, rather than double connecting at MSP and then HNL.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2013-01-01 10:24:15 and read 13732 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 22):
Those passengers were divided between 3 hub airlines, MSP functions as a larger hub with DL than any singular airline at DEN.

And yet, DL couldn't make the non-stop HNL flights work, even as a larger hub. It doesn't matter where they are coming from. If an airline has the opportunity to make a flight happen with 10 million more people at their disposal, it is a no brainer where they would go.

I like MSP. It's one of my favourites. I wish nothing but success. If HA decides to start a MSP-HNL flight, I wish it nothing but success. Just as an analyst in my prior life, if the mega-hub cannot make a flight work with out any competition, more than likely an airline won't start up a flight on a hope that the catchment area will make it happen. It's just too risky.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 23):
And why wpuld anyone at all fly HNL-DEN-NRT? ORD obviously has loads more, and MSP has IIRC KEF, LHR, NRT, AMS, CDG.

It's kind of a moot point when discussing Hawaii as a destination coming from Europe. If Europeans have a tropical destination in mind, it's usually somewhere around the Mediterranean or the Arab peninsula. Going exEurope is fine as most flights will get them in that day. However, on the way back, they lose two days as they have either a flight that arrives on the west coast by 5 or so in the afternoon, which misses a lot of the European bank. And any other east bound flight arrives as a red eye and then you have to wait until the following afternoon to take a flight back. For most folks it's much easier to find a different tropical destination than heading over to Hawaii.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-01-01 11:09:58 and read 13382 times.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 31):
DL couldn't make the non-stop HNL flights work

NW sure made it work. DL inherited the large MSP and DTW hubs in the merger. They weren't in the best financial state and the merger had a new set of issues. HNL-MSP sort of stuck out as a route to kill. Routes and frequencies were cut. Also, with the big NYC push, planes were allocated there. But MSP sure has a lot of pax to HNL.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 31):
It's kind of a moot point when discussing Hawaii as a destination coming from Europe

I agree. I stated that MSP has better European connections because someone stated that DEN would be a good HA route because of the variety of Intercontinental and International connections. MSP and ORD have better options, IMO. I think a fun way to do HNL-Europe "round trip" would be HNL-US-EU-NRT-HNL.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: toering
Posted 2013-01-01 11:21:28 and read 13274 times.

Speaking of non-stop MSP-HNL , I flew this route with a return in April 1990 on a NW 747. Was that 747 a -200 or -100? I'm trying to figure out all the flights I've been on and thought this would be an easier question than trying to figure the reg number on these flights. Thanks.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: TR1
Posted 2013-01-01 11:30:44 and read 13165 times.

Would Delta's new 76Z configuration with 26 Business class seats make MSP-HNL viable again? Right now it appears DL's aircraft capable of doing MSP-HNL nonstop have too many premium seats for such a leisure-oriented market.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2013-01-01 11:43:13 and read 13043 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 32):
NW sure made it work. DL inherited the large MSP and DTW hubs in the merger. They weren't in the best financial state and the merger had a new set of issues. HNL-MSP sort of stuck out as a route to kill. Routes and frequencies were cut. Also, with the big NYC push, planes were allocated there. But MSP sure has a lot of pax to HNL.

Quite honestly, if the route was making good money, it wouldn't have been axed. Plain and simple. If Delta hadn't made such a great profit over the last couple of years, I would be scratching my head at some of their route discontinuations. Obviously, NW at the time only had 3 main hubs and I believe that MSP and DTW were the only two hubs they flew from (SEA/PDX/SFO notwithstanding) to HNL so it made sense to have a MSP nonstop. But the dynamic has changed, along with the amount of hubs and connecting traffic that the combined airline sees. Before the merger, MSP was the largest hub that NW had and it had a HNL flight. Now, ATL is the largest hub that DL has, so they utilize that flight to get to HNL.

Now come 2015, when the majority of the remods are completed and there is a slack of fleet back in the system, I would be willing to bet that DL re-instates this flight. Then again, in the next two to five years, the landscape of Delta and their fleet is going to be completely different as they bring on the 717s and 739s next year, the 50 seaters start slowly dying off and they start retiring the MD80s.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-01-01 12:10:58 and read 12832 times.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 31):
If an airline has the opportunity to make a flight happen with 10 million more people at their disposal, it is a no brainer where they would g

Even if DEN is the world's largest airport, you would have to justify an HNL flight based on that _airline's_ market size. UA's market at DEN may be smaller than DL's at MSP, including connect opportunities. Just putting that out there.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: xjramper
Posted 2013-01-01 12:29:53 and read 12668 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Even if DEN is the world's largest airport, you would have to justify an HNL flight based on that _airline's_ market size. UA's market at DEN may be smaller than DL's at MSP, including connect opportunities. Just putting that out there.

Not sure what Hawaiian Air's market share has to do with UAs?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: stratosphere
Posted 2013-01-01 12:41:48 and read 12561 times.

Quoting toering (Reply 33):
Speaking of non-stop MSP-HNL , I flew this route with a return in April 1990 on a NW 747. Was that 747 a -200 or -100? I'm trying to figure out all the flights I've been on and thought this would be an easier question than trying to figure the reg number on these flights. Thanks.

Don't know which one you flew in 1990 but I flew from HNL to MSP in Feb 1992 on a 747-100 it was a/c 6601 which is now (at least the nose section) in the Smithsonian in Washington DC.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: NWAROOSTER
Posted 2013-01-01 14:14:58 and read 11981 times.

Northwest Airlines was headquartered at MSP. Delta is headquartered at ATL. Delta does not have the same interest in MSP as Northwest did. For Delta, MSP is is just another hub and Delta is is filling up MSP with MD-90s, and other narrow body aircraft. If you want to fly from MSP to HNL, you will have change aircraft at some west coast airport.
Delta has reduced the operation at MSP considerably since the merger and it will stay that way until there is a valid business reason to make improvements in flight operations at MSP.   

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: MSPNWA
Posted 2013-01-01 14:45:45 and read 11701 times.

Quoting af773atmsp (Thread starter):
The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) is apparently offering incentives to any carrier that starts non-stop flights from MSP to Hawaii.

No doubt to try to woo in HA. I'd love to see it, and I think it has a real chance considering HA's use of the 763ER.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 7):
What equipment was previously operated by DL MSP-ATL?

I'm pretty sure this is right, and I'll limit it to about 2005. Anyone is free to correct me if I'm wrong.

-daily DC-10-30 until January 2007
-then A333 daily until Sept. (or very late August?) 2009
-then 5x weekly until June 2010, when it became 4x weekly (3x weekly DTW-HNL was added)
-cut completely in February 2011.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 28):
I was not talking about how big MSP is as a metro area, or how it compares to DEN's overall pax traffic, or anything else. My point is that MSP appears to be perhaps the largest US mainland airport with a substantial amount of Hawaii-bound traffic that does NOT currently have nonstop air service to the Islands.

And that should be no surprise. The MSP area population seems to like going to Hawaii, and so that raises the traffic ranking up a few notches.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 35):
Quite honestly, if the route was making good money, it wouldn't have been axed. Plain and simple.

I think it was one of those cases where Delta felt more money could be made elsewhere.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-01 15:11:43 and read 11542 times.

Quoting af773atmsp (Thread starter):
and attracting B6 to start service at MSP.

Strategically, it should add MSP, MKE as stations and change of ORD to MDW. For MSP, begin with 2x BOS-MSP service and maybe 1x JFK-MSP. Also, the 5 out of 6 slots at DCA which are used for Florida could be moved to IAD or BWI, and the DCA slots could be changed for DCA-MDW with continuation to MSP. Feed would also be coming from BOS and SJU to DCA for atleast the first leg. WN would respond on something like DCA-MDW, but B6 would still be fine, as it's a popular city pair.

Along with BOS, JFK and Chicago service from MSP, B6 could copy the route map of Sun Country in destinations with atleast 1x of SFO, LAX, SAN, DFW, SEA and LAS. Add in MSP-MKE since it's short run as well and B6 could see if WN keeps certain MKE routes.

Some markets like CLT and RDU might not have much a chance really to grow for B6, and B6 should pull out rather than waste resources there, if plane availability is an issue, to get into larger and/or more fragmented markets with better connection flows east and westbound.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-01-01 15:34:04 and read 11374 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 27):
The fact that the 788 came in overweight is part of what caused the mess. Many say that DL ordered the -8 to get slots for -9 models cheaper. And with all the delivery put offs, it isn't the most stable aircraft or even 787 order. And when DL does get the 787, I doubt they will use it to start MSP-HNL

DL never ordered the 787, they inherited them from the merger with NW. It's an important distinction because what NW needed the 787 for is different than what DL will use the 787 for in the 2020 timeframe. Boesing's mess up on the 787 made things a lot easier on DL fleet planners.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-01 15:44:14 and read 11289 times.

Quoting Continental (Reply 29):
I am more impressed by the new and surprisingly good food options going to Terminal 2. I could really care less, but man is that terminal bare post-security!
Quoting Flytravel (Reply 41):
Strategically, it should add MSP, MKE as stations and change of ORD to MDW. For MSP, begin with 2x BOS-MSP service and maybe 1x JFK-MSP. Also, the 5 out of 6 slots at DCA which are used for Florida could be moved to IAD or BWI, and the DCA slots could be changed for DCA-MDW with continuation to MSP. Feed would also be coming from BOS and SJU to DCA for atleast the first leg. WN would respond on something like DCA-MDW, but B6 would still be fine, as it's a popular city pair.

Along with BOS, JFK and Chicago service from MSP, B6 could copy the route map of Sun Country in destinations with atleast 1x of SFO, LAX, SAN, DFW, SEA and LAS. Add in MSP-MKE since it's short run as well and B6 could see if WN keeps certain MKE routes.



I would be very, very surprised to see B6 launch routes like MSP-DFW and MSP-MKE. DL and WN have plenty of seats on MSP-MKE, and MSP-DFW is served by DL, AA, SY, and soon to be NK. No reason for B6 to get into a blood bath on routes like MSP-SEA (SY, DL, AS) either. I expect a token presence if B6 comes to MSP to their focus citie(s).

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-01 15:47:25 and read 11267 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 4):
How is DEN a bigger market? MSP has over a million more people in its metro area than DEN does.

Well, according to that oh so reliable source Wiki, DEN MSA is 3.1m and MSP is 3.2m

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-01 16:18:46 and read 11058 times.

HA to MSP I think is in the cards...Reading between the lines in recent talks given by Dunkerly, I think Hawaiian will soon (in the next year) announce a NB order of either the MAX or NEO. This will be the 717 replacement and I think they will then switch most of the Hawaii-West Coast traffic to NB's with probably a few WB's on some of the larger markets/busy days of the week. I think they will then start opening some new cities beyond the range of the NB's, i.e. MSP, DEN, Texas, etc. with the freed up WB's.

HA has always said that Europe was a possibility once the A350's came online. It's true that most europeans don't vacation in Hawaii, but HA operates from the premise that there are people with money around the world that would vacation in Hawaii if it were only easily accessible via a non-stop flight. I think you could see HNL-CDG or HNL-LHR by 2020. Of course that assumes Europe hasn't imploded by then.

In the immdiate future though, I think the next domestic city for HA will be BOS.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-01 16:27:00 and read 10985 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 43):
I would be very, very surprised to see B6 launch routes like MSP-DFW and MSP-MKE. DL and WN have plenty of seats on MSP-MKE, and MSP-DFW is served by DL, AA, SY, and soon to be NK. No reason for B6 to get into a blood bath on routes like MSP-SEA (SY, DL, AS) either. I expect a token presence if B6 comes to MSP to their focus citie(s).

If Sun Country, a very small carrier, can make about a 1x daily on these destination routes work from MSP, why wouldn't jetBlue be able to take a risk on a couple or more westbound destination cities from some of them at MSP? The longer stage length flights aren't on an hourly shuttle basis by DL or AA. Perhaps scratch off DFW, but the others are east-west oriented and would have feed as well on B6. It's less risk at MSP for a B6 focus, which is a big market and far enough west, than say at PIT.

[Edited 2013-01-01 16:28:18]

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-01-01 16:28:04 and read 10980 times.

MSP use to be the western most hub for NWA. HNL was really the best fit. Now Delta can the same people NW use to fly via SLC or ATL instead. Its just not as necessary now with the merger

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-01-01 16:36:39 and read 10920 times.

Whatever the incentive, it better be good. MSP-HNL is a long (expensive) route.

Could HA make MSP work on MSP-originating traffic alone? When NW (and briefly DL) operated MSP-HNL, it has the benefit of the connecting hub traffic.

DL isn't dumb, if the route was profitable, they would not have cut it in the first place.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-01 16:43:16 and read 10862 times.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 48):
DL isn't dumb, if the route was profitable, they would not have cut it in the first place.

It's not just if the route is profitabel or not, it's if there is something more profitable out there that the aircraft could be utilized on. HNL-MSP is not competing with JFK-LHR (i.e) at the route planner discussion at HA.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: azjubilee
Posted 2013-01-01 16:47:32 and read 10847 times.

There are NO plans to replace the 717s at HAL at this time. HAL is happy with the 717 until roughly 2020. As for HAL to MSP... longshot at best. The only way it could work would be to profitably fill the plane with O&D since HAL has no feed and I seriously doubt DL is going to compromise its own Hawaii service by feeding a competitor. This is also the reason why HAL isn't flying nonstop to other mega hubs, like DFW, ORD and DEN.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-01-01 16:49:10 and read 10814 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 49):
It's not just if the route is profitabel or not, it's if there is something more profitable out there that the aircraft could be utilized on. HNL-MSP is not competing with JFK-LHR (i.e) at the route planner discussion at HA.

But with Hawaiian's expansion in to international markets, they might be in a similar situation as Delta was. ie. Yes, we can make X dollars flying HNL-MSP, or we can make X+y dollars and yen (or won or...) utilizing this plane on an international destination.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2013-01-01 17:20:34 and read 10558 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 44):

Well, according to that oh so reliable source Wiki, DEN MSA is 3.1m and MSP is 3.2m
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver_metropolitan_area

2.6 million

vs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minneapolis%E2%80%93Saint_Paul

3.6 million

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: BA
Posted 2013-01-01 17:42:25 and read 10447 times.

DL offers a lot of connecting options to get to HNL from MSP. West of MSP, DL serves HNL from SLC, LAX, SFO, and SEA. In addition from LAX they serve OGG, KOA, and LIH.

They also codeshare on Alaska Airlines' flights to HNL, OGG, KOA, and LIH.

Passengers have quite a few options.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 52):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver_metropolitan_area

2.6 million

vs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minneapolis%E2%80%93Saint_Paul

3.6 million

You're comparing Denver MSA with Minneapolis/St. Paul CSA figures.

If you want to compare apples with apples, you have to compare MSA with MSA and CSA with CSA

The Denver CSA is over 3.1 million people:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver%...3Boulder_Combined_Statistical_Area

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2013-01-01 17:47:37 and read 10387 times.

Quoting BA (Reply 53):
You're comparing Denver MSA with Minneapolis/St. Paul CSA figures.

If you want to compare apples with apples, you have to compare MSA with MSA and CSA with CSA

The Denver CSA is over 3.1 million people:

I stand corrected.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-01-01 17:53:54 and read 10349 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 9):
MSP has far more international service with direct flights CDG, AMS, and NRT all on DL, and soon to be CDG on AF and likely ICN on KE beginning early 2014.

DEN actually has more international O&D than MSP does. DEN-Europe is actually quite a bit larger than MSP-Europe and not by an insignificant amount.

MSP-Asia and DEN-Asia are similar in size to one another, but the market will probably be stimulated when DEN-NRT starts.

DEN-Hawaii is also larger than MSP-HNL.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2013-01-01 18:13:38 and read 10205 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 55):

DEN actually has more international O&D than MSP does. DEN-Europe is actually quite a bit larger than MSP-Europe and not by an insignificant amount.

MSP-Asia and DEN-Asia are similar in size to one another, but the market will probably be stimulated when DEN-NRT starts.

DEN-Hawaii is also larger than MSP-HNL.

I was referring to direct flights, of which there are currently none from MSP-HNL.

MSP has direct NRT service, DEN will get it in a few months.

Given MSPs 3x daily flights to AMS as well as daily flights to LHR and CDG I am guessing there are more seats than the 1x daily flights from DEN to LHR and FRA on non-UA metal. AF will be starting MSP-CDG this spring as well.

What numbers/stats/metrics are you referring to?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: beechtobus
Posted 2013-01-01 18:17:36 and read 10175 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 44):

"Well, according to that oh so reliable source Wiki, DEN MSA is 3.1m and MSP is 3.2m"

Actually the PSA (primary statistical area, which includes all MSAs and CSAs in a particular urban area) of Denver is 3.1m, Denver's MSA is 2.6m. MSP's PSA is 3.6m and its MSA is 3.2. But I agree that PSA is more accurate as far as overall populations of an urban area, especially in Denver's case as the urbanized area adjoining Denver is broken up into several MSAs.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 4):

"How is DEN a bigger market? MSP has over a million more people in its metro area than DEN does."

Well, the numbers speak for themselves, I don't think there is any arguing that DEN has a bigger air travel market than MSP. With 52.7m passenger through DEN in 2011 and 54 percent of those being O and D passengers, 28.5m people started or ended their trip at DEN( http://business.flydenver.com/info/news/pressKit.pdf ). MSP, on the other hand, had 33.1m pax in 2011 and with (coincidently) the same 54 percent of all passengers being o and d, saw 17.9m people starting or ending their journey in MSP( http://www.mspairport.com/about-msp/statistics.aspx ).

DENs 28.5m is bigger than MSPs 17.9m showing that DEN is clearly a bigger market, air travel wise, than MSP. Now population and market isn't the same thing if that is what you refer to, which purely looking at MSAs and CSAs and PSAs Minneapolis does beat Denver. I would make an argument however, that Denver airports catchment is more populated than MSPs as it serves such a large area. One could argue that the Front Range Urban Corridor ( an essentially contiguous urban strip between Pueblo CO and Cheyenne WY, which is centered around Denver) with 4.42m people is more populated than a similar area surrounding MSP. Arguing population estimates and catchment areas and what constitutes what city's urban or metro area is very subjective, though and up to much interpretation.

I do however agree that MSP is in need of Hawaii service and could see HA giving the airport a shot sooner than later (and yes, probably before Denver gets HA service as Denver currently has 2 daily 757s to HNL plus less than daily service to other islands) .

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2013-01-01 18:24:25 and read 10132 times.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 57):
Well, the numbers speak for themselves, I don't think there is any arguing that DEN has a bigger air travel market than MSP. With 52.7m passenger through DEN in 2011 and 54 percent of those being O and D passengers, 28.5m people started or ended their trip at DEN( http://business.flydenver.com/info/news/pressKit.pdf ). MSP, on the other hand, had 33.1m pax in 2011 and with (coincidently) the same 54 percent of all passengers being o and d, saw 17.9m people starting or ending their journey in MSP( http://www.mspairport.com/about-msp/statistics.aspx ).

DENs 28.5m is bigger than MSPs 17.9m showing that DEN is clearly a bigger market, air travel wise, than MSP. Now population and market isn't the same thing if that is what you refer to, which purely looking at MSAs and CSAs and PSAs Minneapolis does beat Denver. I would make an argument however, that Denver airports catchment is more populated than MSPs as it serves such a large area. One could argue that the Front Range Urban Corridor ( an essentially contiguous urban strip between Pueblo CO and Cheyenne WY, which is centered around Denver) with 4.42m people is more populated than a similar area surrounding MSP. Arguing population estimates and catchment areas and what constitutes what city's urban or metro area is very subjective, though and up to much interpretation.

I do however agree that MSP is in need of Hawaii service and could see HA giving the airport a shot sooner than later (and yes, probably before Denver gets HA service as Denver currently has 2 daily 757s to HNL plus less than daily service to other islands) .
Quoting beechtobus (Reply 57):
Well, the numbers speak for themselves, I don't think there is any arguing that DEN has a bigger air travel market than MSP. With 52.7m passenger through DEN in 2011 and 54 percent of those being O and D passengers, 28.5m people started or ended their trip at DEN( http://business.flydenver.com/info/news/pressKit.pdf ). MSP, on the other hand, had 33.1m pax in 2011 and with (coincidently) the same 54 percent of all passengers being o and d, saw 17.9m people starting or ending their journey in MSP( http://www.mspairport.com/about-msp/statistics.aspx ).

DENs 28.5m is bigger than MSPs 17.9m showing that DEN is clearly a bigger market, air travel wise, than MSP. Now population and market isn't the same thing if that is what you refer to, which purely looking at MSAs and CSAs and PSAs Minneapolis does beat Denver. I would make an argument however, that Denver airports catchment is more populated than MSPs as it serves such a large area. One could argue that the Front Range Urban Corridor ( an essentially contiguous urban strip between Pueblo CO and Cheyenne WY, which is centered around Denver) with 4.42m people is more populated than a similar area surrounding MSP. Arguing population estimates and catchment areas and what constitutes what city's urban or metro area is very subjective, though and up to much interpretation.

I do however agree that MSP is in need of Hawaii service and could see HA giving the airport a shot sooner than later (and yes, probably before Denver gets HA service as Denver currently has 2 daily 757s to HNL plus less than daily service to other islands) .

This is a serious question: If DEN is so big compared to MSP, why no direct UA service to Europe or Asia? Why can DL make NRT/CDG/LHR/AMS work at MSP if UA can't at DEN?

Movements of F9 and WN certainly make DEN much bigger domestically, but why not more international flights?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-01-01 18:40:47 and read 10034 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 45):
HA has always said that Europe was a possibility once the A350's came online. It's true that most europeans don't vacation in Hawaii, but HA operates from the premise that there are people with money around the world that would vacation in Hawaii if it were only easily accessible via a non-stop flight. I think you could see HNL-CDG or HNL-LHR by 2020. Of course that assumes Europe hasn't imploded by then.

HNL-Europe for 2011 was 180 PDEW down 20% over an eight year period. Growth have been seen in Canadian flights but do you want to tangle with AC and WS.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 45):
In the immdiate future though, I think the next domestic city for HA will be BOS.

I'd like to know the O&D but if there are only 2 flights a day to the New York Area and one was just recently restarted then BOS doesn't seem likely. I think BOS would see DXB/IST/ICN/PEK flights begin before BOS-HNL is even studied by HA.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: wingnutmn
Posted 2013-01-01 18:44:43 and read 10011 times.

Doesn't DL do mx for HA on the A332 in MSP? Could DL/HA/MAC come up with a 3 way agreement where HA flies an A332 to MSP daily. It sits for 6-8 hours on the ground and receives some type of check, then flies back to HNL? HA gets a subsidy and mx work, DL gets a mx contract, and MAC gets its non-stop flight.

Wingnut

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: steex
Posted 2013-01-01 18:45:46 and read 10001 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 58):
This is a serious question: If DEN is so big compared to MSP, why no direct UA service to Europe or Asia? Why can DL make NRT/CDG/LHR/AMS work at MSP if UA can't at DEN?

It's not entirely about whether or not they can, but also whether or not they need to. You have to compare the overall networks of the two carriers in question. MSP is well placed geographically to be a reasonable flight to Europe, while still being arguably the best placed DL hub for connections between the western USA and Europe. Only SLC offers better and more direct connections to the west from Europe for DL, and it's a much smaller market that is much further from Europe, and thus suffers from the same problem as DEN regarding non-stop TATL service.

In the UA network, ORD is a market with huge demand to/from Europe that is positioned similarly to MSP. As a result, UA has generally accommodated TATL demand from the western USA over the ORD hub (and some demand further west than DEN can also be handled fairly well over SFO), where all of the flights already exist for O&D purposes. This has similarly allowed much of the DEN demand to be handled over ORD rather than operating the longer TATL services to DEN.

From a TPAC standpoint, MSP benefits from DL putting more emphasis on NRT connections in addition to being in a pretty good location geographically and a decent local MSP-Asia market. In the case of DEN-NRT, I'd say its absence has largely been due to the fact that UA could keep many of the passengers without offering the long non-stop. UA can connect most major Asian markets to DEN over SFO, so DEN-NRT O&D traffic is all that is really inconvenienced by the lack of a non-stop - and UA likely captures much of that over SFO or SEA, too.

The above isn't the complete story, of course. But there's far more to the story than just one being able to work and the other not.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: usflyer msp
Posted 2013-01-01 18:50:02 and read 9954 times.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 57):
DENs 28.5m is bigger than MSPs 17.9m showing that DEN is clearly a bigger market, air travel wise, than MSP. Now population and market isn't the same thing if that is what you refer to, which purely looking at MSAs and CSAs and PSAs Minneapolis does beat Denver. I would make an argument however, that Denver airports catchment is more populated than MSPs as it serves such a large area. One could argue that the Front Range Urban Corridor ( an essentially contiguous urban strip between Pueblo CO and Cheyenne WY, which is centered around Denver) with 4.42m people is more populated than a similar area surrounding MSP. Arguing population estimates and catchment areas and what constitutes what city's urban or metro area is very subjective, though and up to much interpretation.

I do however agree that MSP is in need of Hawaii service and could see HA giving the airport a shot sooner than later (and yes, probably before Denver gets HA service as Denver currently has 2 daily 757s to HNL plus less than daily service to other islands) .

If MSP had the traffic stimulation caused by constant fare wars between UA, WN, F9, and NK that DEN has its traffic numbers would meet (and probably exceed) those of DEN. MSP's average fare is $130 higher than DEN despite it being closer to most population centers.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2013-01-01 18:53:12 and read 9969 times.

Quoting wingnutmn (Reply 60):
Doesn't DL do mx for HA on the A332 in MSP? Could DL/HA/MAC come up with a 3 way agreement where HA flies an A332 to MSP daily. It sits for 6-8 hours on the ground and receives some type of check, then flies back to HNL? HA gets a subsidy and mx work, DL gets a mx contract, and MAC gets its non-stop flight.

We see HA 332s in MSP fairly regularly. I am sure they could come up with something...

Quoting steex (Reply 61):
It's not entirely about whether or not they can, but also whether or not they need to. You have to compare the overall networks of the two carriers in question. MSP is well placed geographically to be a reasonable flight to Europe, while still being arguably the best placed DL hub for connections between the western USA and Europe. Only SLC offers better and more direct connections to the west from Europe for DL, and it's a much smaller market that is much further from Europe, and thus suffers from the same problem as DEN regarding non-stop TATL service.

In the UA network, ORD is a market with huge demand to/from Europe that is positioned similarly to MSP. As a result, UA has generally accommodated TATL demand from the western USA over the ORD hub (and some demand further west than DEN can also be handled fairly well over SFO), where all of the flights already exist for O&D purposes. This has similarly allowed much of the DEN demand to be handled over ORD rather than operating the longer TATL services to DEN.

From a TPAC standpoint, MSP benefits from DL putting more emphasis on NRT connections in addition to being in a pretty good location geographically and a decent local MSP-Asia market. In the case of DEN-NRT, I'd say its absence has largely been due to the fact that UA could keep many of the passengers without offering the long non-stop. UA can connect most major Asian markets to DEN over SFO, so DEN-NRT O&D traffic is all that is really inconvenienced by the lack of a non-stop - and UA likely captures much of that over SFO or SEA, too.

The above isn't the complete story, of course. But there's far more to the story than just one being able to work and the other not.

Thank you. I appreciate the insight and info.

Once AF comes in next summer and, possibly, KE comes in in early 2014 MSP will not be a bad place to live if you like to travel overseas.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-01-01 18:54:06 and read 9937 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 46):
If Sun Country, a very small carrier, can make about a 1x daily on these destination routes work from MSP, why wouldn't jetBlue be able to take a risk on a couple or more westbound destination cities from some of them at MSP? The longer stage length flights aren't on an hourly shuttle basis by DL or AA. Perhaps scratch off DFW, but the others are east-west oriented and would have feed as well on B6. It's less risk at MSP for a B6 focus, which is a big market and far enough west, than say at PIT.

I'm wondering how its works myself. I thought they were throwing planes on flights that were available when they were not flying to leisure destinations such as Florida, CUN, etc.

For example look at the MSP-BOS flight times.

MSP 7:25a BOS 11:05a
BOS 8:40p MSP 10:45p


Does the plane stay at BOS for over 9 hours?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: beechtobus
Posted 2013-01-01 19:07:44 and read 9872 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 58):

"This is a serious question: If DEN is so big compared to MSP, why no direct UA service to Europe or Asia? Why can DL make NRT/CDG/LHR/AMS work at MSP if UA can't at DEN?

Movements of F9 and WN certainly make DEN much bigger domestically, but why not more international flights?"

Good question. Honestly, I think it's part history of the airlines that have hubbed in Denver over the years, part geography, and part Denvers mile high elevation and thus physical constraints at takeoff and climb.

Airlines that have hubbed in Denver over the years historically did not have much of an international presence, if any at all. United, which has had a major presence in Denver since the 50s did not get long haul routes to Asia until the mid 80s and did not even start European service until I believe 89 or 90. This service was initially to CDG and FRA, which were amply served from ORD and IAD., and when UA did get LHR routes from PA, they weren't initially allowed to add DEN because of Bermuda restrictions. By the time these restrictions expired, BA had broken into the LHR-DEN market and UA didn't really have a chance with thier short stint on the route. Continental which had its headquarters in Denver until the 1960s and kept a large hub until the early 90s was in the same boat, without much mainland to Asia service until the 90s, and only started building up Europe with the acquisition of people expess's assets in the mid 80s, when CO was starting to wind down DEN. Frontiers 1 and 2 obviously had no long haul and Western did operate to LGW in the early 80s and this service was continued by CO until Stapleton closed in 1995. Otoh, NWs large Asian and MSP presence for many decades and European service starting in the early 80s solidified MSPs links to these areas early.

Geographically, DEN is just not a great Intercontiental hub, being generally smack in the middle of the country, it does great for domestic connections but not so much as an Intercontiental gateway. MSP is a natural connection point from much of the east to Asia and from pretty much anywhere west of the Mississippi to Europe. Also, I'm guessing that MSP has much more of a recent generation European population than Denver.

Lastly, Denver's mile high elevation requiring loooong takeoff rolls, and the wall of mountains to the west, streching into Canada that very heavily fuel laden aircraft would have to climb over and stay over in the event of an engine failure has kept Denver from getting nonstop Asian service until now with the advent of the 787. It has the range and performance to get from Denver to Asia nonstop where the 747 (too high of wheel speeds on these long take off rolls, and probably too large for den-Asia anyhow), and DC-10s, 777s A330s didn't have the performance.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: steex
Posted 2013-01-01 19:10:56 and read 9862 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 63):
Once AF comes in next summer and, possibly, KE comes in in early 2014 MSP will not be a bad place to live if you like to travel overseas.

Not a bad place to connect, either. As a long-time NW/DL customer living near STL, sometimes MSP feels like my second home!

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: FI642
Posted 2013-01-01 20:53:58 and read 9341 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 32):

NW sure made it work. DL inherited the large MSP and DTW hubs in the merger. They weren't in the best financial state and the merger had a new set of issues. HNL-MSP sort of stuck out as a route to kill. Routes and frequencies were cut. Also, with the big NYC push, planes were allocated there. But MSP sure has a lot of pax to HNL.



NW had the capacity to serve HNL. DL wants that metal for International use. Hawaii has always been
a draw to use FQTV miles on, and frequently low yields. If equipment could be allocated efficiently, DL
would serve HNL from MSP again.

The two airlines did business very differently. Combining them efficiently has been a challenge.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-01 22:00:42 and read 9178 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 46):
If Sun Country, a very small carrier, can make about a 1x daily on these destination routes work from MSP, why wouldn't jetBlue be able to take a risk on a couple or more westbound destination cities from some of them at MSP? The longer stage length flights aren't on an hourly shuttle basis by DL or AA. Perhaps scratch off DFW, but the others are east-west oriented and would have feed as well on B6. It's less risk at MSP for a B6 focus, which is a big market and far enough west, than say at PIT.

SY is the "hometown airline" of MSP. DL also has quite the loyalty in MSP of course. B6 is pretty much an unknown name or airline at this point to many in the MSP metro. It just seems to me B6 could have a much better chance of making money allocating their capital (planes) to less competitive markets and/or markets where they may have an edge (such as out of JFK/BOS where they have a following). Of course this is all my opinion and we are clueless to what the future actually will be. I suppose there is room in the Humphrey terminal, although with NK, SY, WN/FL all growing the terminal is thriving as is (new security lanes were added recently as well as space for new restaurants that are/have opened). Room could be limited some day medium to long term, particularly if DL keeps capacity down a little from PMNW.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: beechtobus
Posted 2013-01-02 03:05:30 and read 8997 times.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 62):

"If MSP had the traffic stimulation caused by constant fare wars between UA, WN, F9, and NK that DEN has its traffic numbers would meet (and probably exceed) those of DEN. MSP's average fare is $130 higher than DEN despite it being closer to most population centers."

I could buy that the o and d numbers would be very close, It would be interesting to see who's would be larger with average fares being equal. MSPs metro is about .5 mil larger but I would argue that DENs catchment areas population is slightly higher. I'm sure MSP would edge out DEN with business travelers as I'm just guessing, but it seems that there is a larger corporate base in MSP and more large companies hq'd there. Denvers population however, has a larger propensity for air travel as metro Denver is smack in the middle of one of the mot sparsely populated regions in the country and air travel is the only viable option for longer distance travel outside of Denver. With the upper Midwest being much more populated in general, many more MSP residents likely drive to visit friends/family as more are likely to be nearby.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: toobz
Posted 2013-01-02 04:11:51 and read 9000 times.

I find it hard to believe anyone would want to fly 10hrs to Hawaii when MSPers have closer islands they could go to. Could you imagine what DL would have to charge to break even on a long domestic route like that?? Add the expensive hotels into the equasion and youre better off flying to the carribean. I think they are smart to have dropped it when they did. The era of flying metal everywhere has been over for a while. People don't want to pay and I don't blame airlines for cutting service. If you really want to go to HNL connect through ATL

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: GSPSPOT
Posted 2013-01-02 07:53:14 and read 8765 times.

Quoting toobz (Reply 70):
I find it hard to believe anyone would want to fly 10hrs to Hawaii when MSPers have closer islands they could go to.

After multiple visits to both Hawaii and a few Caribbean isles, I find Hawaii to be a superior place to spend my vacation time and money. The temperature/humidity mix feels less harsh and more consistent, food is out of this world with a heavy Asian influence, and it's just a bit more exotic feeling, while being a domestic U.S. destination.

I for one would gladly save up longer to fly the 10 hours to Hawaii rather than the Caribbean.

If NW was able to fly MSP-HNL on A333s and other a/c before, certainly DL can make it work again!

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-01-02 07:59:58 and read 8737 times.

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 71):
If NW was able to fly MSP-HNL on A333s and other a/c before, certainly DL can make it work again!

That is not a true statement. Simply because a flight was operated in the past does not mean it can work again in the future. The variables can, do, and have changed.

The biggest changes:
- Fuel costs
- Network (merger related and ability to route traffic over ATL, SLC, and West Coast gateways)
- Competition

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-02 08:08:03 and read 8697 times.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 21):
This is not a government subsidy, but a Metro Airport Commission subsidy. The Airport commission operates as its own entity

A subsidy is a subsidy, there still has to be a strong business case to entice airlines to start up such a route, they need to show a decent return for the investment the airlines need to make to start up or restart such a route. Also DL stopped it before so they probably don't think there was a lot of money to be made flying from MSP to HNL. They also have other routes that make more sense to invest in.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 26):
Believe it or not but the nuts in Washington have been "subsidizing" air fares on unprofitable routes for years! Whether they benefit the local community is a question of what flavor " pork" your congressman and constituents like!
http://www.dot.gov/policy/aviation-p...-air-service/essential-air-service

They had that program for a while and I don't see MSP to HNL as an essential service. Is this program not for communities not to lose its transportation links for essential travel or to have an airport open for the community.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-01-02 08:09:11 and read 8695 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 56):
What numbers/stats/metrics are you referring to?

Its MDIT data. All of what Ive written is factual.

As of now DEN-Asia and MSP-Asia are similar in size, though I expect DEN-Asia to pull ahead when the nonstop DEN-NRT starts due to traffic stimulation.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 58):
This is a serious question: If DEN is so big compared to MSP, why no direct UA service to Europe or Asia? Why can DL make NRT/CDG/LHR/AMS work at MSP if UA can't at DEN?

The flip side of that coin would be to ask why does DEN have three European carriers and MSP has none?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-01-02 08:28:38 and read 8648 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 73):
They had that program for a while and I don't see MSP to HNL as an essential service. Is this program not for communities not to lose its transportation links for essential travel or to have an airport open for the community.

I have to agree with your opinion, that offering a subsidy/incentive program for a route like MSP-HNL is a stupid waste of resources.

Service to HNL provides no economic value or return to the community or region. There are no business or economic ties, it is simply a leisure route that offers somewhat easier access to a vacation destination.

We've seen it in the past where many smaller airports are offering incentives to get a new entrant or a leisure carrier (e.g. G4, NK, Skybus) to start service. While the economic return for the region is low, at least it can help raise awareness about the local airport, and can get passenger numbers to a point where the airport can receive more grant money for infrastructure/airfield improvements and maintenance.

MSP doesn't fit this case, they don't need the passenger flow, they've already a large connecting hub. I can't think of a case where an airport the size of MSP has offered incentives for a leisure routes (particularly a long-haul, widebody-required, leisure route). In most cases airports like MSP focus their incentives and effort to lure more international service or new entrants that either add economic value to the region or for competition.

All this so people can save about 2 hours each way on their trip to HNL. Never mind they won't use the nonstop service if is less expensive to connect elsewhere.

If I were MSP, I'd focus more on getting service to or restored from places like MEX, ICN, China, or FRA.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: treebeard787
Posted 2013-01-02 09:38:06 and read 8552 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 74):
The flip side of that coin would be to ask why does DEN have three European carriers and MSP has none?

That's not entirely true, FI serves MSP with daily seasonal flights, AF is going to be flying CDG-MSP daily starting soon as well. I also wouldn't be too surprised if KE started an MSP flight too. For all the other MSP-Europe routes, DL is better suited to serve them then most other international carriers, outside of AF, KL for Europe and KE for Asia.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-02 11:26:08 and read 8397 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 41):

How can you state that there not performing good. I mean the bookings are considerby strong right now.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-01-02 11:32:11 and read 8399 times.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 58):
his is a serious question: If DEN is so big compared to MSP, why no direct UA service to Europe or Asia? Why can DL make NRT/CDG/LHR/AMS work at MSP if UA can't at DEN?

I have to throw my    in here.

As per the Brookings Report on International O&D air pax to/ from U.S. metropolitan areas, DEN is ranked 16th with 5084 pax per day, with MSP ranked 17th with 4721 pax per day for the year of 2011.

Measuring the top 30 markets in total from both DEN and MSP, and pulling out the EU and Asia markets from each, we have as follows:

DEN has 924 daily O&D pax with EU, the top markets here being
#2 London @ 334 pax,
#10 Frankfurt @ 141,
#11 Paris @ 102,
#14 Amsterdam @ 70,
#16 Rome @ 62,
#20 Munich @ 53,
#21 Zurich @ 46,
#23 Madrid @ 41,
#26 Dublin @ 39, and
#30 Barcelona @ 36 for finish the top 30.

To/from Asia, there are 149 daily O&D pax per day, with
#17 Seoul @ 58 per day,
#19 Tokyo @ 54, and
29 Beijing @ 36.

As for MSP along the same lines, into the EU is far less than DEN with 661 daily O&D pax per day with
#3 London @ 260 pax per day,
#7 tied Amsterdam and Paris both @ 107,
#14 Frankfurt with 67,
#20 Rome @ 52,
#27 tied Dublin and Copenhagen both @ 34 pax per day.

However, as for Asia, MSP does have just about double the pax than DEN with 296 daily O&D pax per day in its Top 30, with
#13 Tokyo @ 72,
#17 Shanghai @ 59,
#19 Seoul @ 54,
#23 Beijing @ 44, and then in a tie at
#27 tied with Ho Chi Minh City and Delhi both @ 34 pax per day.

Going down below the Top 30 into the rest of the Top 200 international destinations that this reports lists, I think that DEN will probably be slightly higher overall, since it's international pax numbers are higher by some 360 pax per day.

And I don't think that there can be too much squealing about yields here, since with DEN they may be low on the domestic side, but with so few international flights @ DEN, my own basic research and other anecdotal evidence show fares quite high and seats quite full, with which one may conclude that probably the yields are high as well.

Also with growth factors going forward, sometime after 2020, the Denver area may actually get ahead population-wise, since the Denver area is growing at about a 2.15% rate, while the Twin Cities area is growing at about a 1.10% rate. Add to that DEN airport officials are estimating some 62M pax by 2020, and this is assuming a very modest and doable 1-2% growth rate.

Just to throw this in here as well, DEN has the largest amount of LCC of any airport in the world. It is also ranked highest among the world's major airports as having the highest percentage of domestic traffic to international traffic, with 93% domestic..... and I don't know if this is really a good thing or a bad thing, but it is the tops. And along these lines, DEN will probably surpass ATL in 2013 with having the highest number of domestic nonstop destinations available from any U.S. airport.


So....... as to where HA would choose to go between DEN or MSP though, I think that it just might be better with MSP since there currently is no competition. UA could go ballistics if HA landed into DEN (don't know this for sure) while we also don't know what DL would do either if HA entered MSP. Still, if HA were to average out at about 5x or so weekly flights (adjustments seasonal) I do think that this could not only be consistently filled, but also generate high yields. And with the incentives....... I would have to wonder what HA is waiting for, especially with G4 filling up 757s (although certainly less than daily) from second and third tier airports?

 



[Edited 2013-01-02 12:11:38]

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-01-02 11:47:45 and read 8343 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 78):
Measuring the top 30 markets in total from both DEN and MSP, and pulling out the EU and Asia markets from each, we have as follows:

Just to clarify, I believe the numbers you have posted are round trip. To get PDEW, you would have to break them in half.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-01-02 12:20:57 and read 8285 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 78):
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 79):

To follow up, the PDEW data is below:

DEN-Europe: 814 total passengers per day per direction
DEN-Asia: 316 total passengers per day per direction

MSP-Europe: 676 passengers per day per direction
MSP-Asia: 334 passengers per day per direction

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: AADC10
Posted 2013-01-02 13:44:17 and read 8162 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Even if DEN is the world's largest airport, you would have to justify an HNL flight based on that _airline's_ market size.

No, you do not. In addition to a non-stop O&D premium, there are some routes that would remove a stop on the way to Hawaii. Some passengers are willing to make one stop but not two. A few passengers may find their overall travel time reduced as well. Regardless, the key point of a hub is to aggregate enough passengers to support a flight. There are many flights that operate because it is connected to a hub, not because of the strength of the O&D.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 58):
This is a serious question: If DEN is so big compared to MSP, why no direct UA service to Europe or Asia? Why can DL make NRT/CDG/LHR/AMS work at MSP if UA can't at DEN?

Most cities between the coasts have limited transoceanic flights. Dallas complains about the lack of direct flights to Europe and Asia too. The hubs at either coast can collected passengers from the entire USA and send them on across the ocean. Not too many passengers from the west coast would want to backtrack to MSP to get to HNL, so most of the connecting passengers would come from the east or midwest. Going to Europe, passengers from the east would not want to backtrack to MSP to connect, so most connections would come from the west or midwest.

CDG and AMS are SkyTeam hubs and MSP was the PMNW western hub. DL had a relatively small hub at SLC. Connecting through ATL to Europe is a bit of a sidetrack.UA is starting DEN-NRT and DEN has DEN-LHR on BA and DEN-FRA on LH. For DL, NRT is more of a hub than for UA, which now overflies it on many routes. UA has long established large international hubs to the east and west of DEN, so the case for intercontinental flights from there is weak. UA does not even have LAX-FRA, letting LH take all of the passengers.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-01-02 14:12:57 and read 8107 times.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 81):
Dallas complains about the lack of direct flights to Europe and Asia too.

Its true that some of the airport executives clamor for more DFW-Europe, but the truth is that DFW-Europe is well covered in terms of destinations. There are three 70 or better PDEW markets from DFW to Europe (LHR, CDG, and FRA) and one closer to 50 PDEW (MAD). Not surprisingly, those are the markets that have service from DFW. The only other market with any bulk is FCO and its so low yielding, its not worth it.

DFW-Asia could have used another flight to ICN (which its getting) and maybe a 787 to HKG down the line. Other than that its pretty well served.

DFW-South America is now going to be complete with the addition of BOG and LIM. I dont see the need for any further expansion to that continent beyond that.

After this, the only real expansion would be in South Asia, more smaller cities in Mexico, and some smaller planes to other Central America cities.

DFW is pretty well set for the most part.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-01-02 14:17:38 and read 8100 times.

Why has this become a DEN vs MSP fight? Who cares...how does even relate to MSP regaining or reasons it wont HNL service?

To swing it back ill say this....if Delta couldn't make MSP-HNL be profitable enough to keep it then Hawaiiian sure is not gonna find a way purely on the "O" of MSP. There is not a huge Hawiian population in MSP, no business connections, no reason people in Hawaii would vacation in MSP? Its gonna be one side and too small for Hawiian. Delta had the connection power to fill seats but now can reroute almost everyone thru ATL, SLC or a westcoast gateway.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-01-02 15:03:31 and read 8045 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 83):
To swing it back ill say this....if Delta couldn't make MSP-HNL be profitable enough to keep it then Hawaiiian sure is not gonna find a way purely on the "O" of MSP.

I don't see the correlation here. AA has dropped lots of routes that other carriers picked up and have been very successful with (SJC-OGG as one of many examples). I've seen no evidence that route didn't - or couldn't have - work for DL. Sounds like they just figured they could make all the MSP-Hawaii passengers make a longer trip by connecting in SEA, SLC or LAX and use the airplane elsewhere. HA coming into the route may force DL to compete more seriously, or give up the traffic.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 81):
Dallas complains about the lack of direct flights to Europe and Asia too.

Seems like DFW has a generous amount of Europe non-stops considering its location.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-01-02 15:10:40 and read 8024 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 84):
I don't see the correlation here. AA has dropped lots of routes that other carriers picked up and have been very successful with (SJC-OGG as one of many examples). I've seen no evidence that route didn't - or couldn't have - work for DL.

I am just saying Delta has lots of connection power it could use to fill seats. Hawiian would rely on people in MSP to fill the plane alone.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-01-02 16:04:52 and read 7959 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 85):
Hawiian would rely on people in MSP to fill the plane alone.

Actually, HA has many Asian connections it could offer. As well as Australia, New Zealand and other South Pacific destinations that they can connect pax to.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-01-02 16:26:58 and read 7921 times.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 86):
Actually, HA has many Asian connections it could offer. As well as Australia, New Zealand and other South Pacific destinations that they can connect pax to.

Seriously what is the daily demand between MSP and south pacific destinations? Its not gonna fill a decent portion on an A330 is it?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-01-02 17:21:15 and read 7849 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 49):
HNL-MSP is not competing with JFK-LHR (i.e) at the route planner discussion at HA.

Depending on specifics (it being January) JFK-LHR could easily be less profitable, so that would affect DL, but yes, HAL is not going to fly JFK-LHR, that is true.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 81):
There are many flights that operate because it is connected to a hub, not because of the strength of the O&D.

You really think a UA DEN-HNL flight is going to use the flow passengers coming in on F9 and WN? Those pax are irrelevant to UA. I agree the size of DEN local market is key, but the total passenger count at DEN inclusive of other airline hubs can be misleading IMO. Especially when making a comparison vs. MSP as we were. This is just my opinion.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-02 17:26:37 and read 7827 times.

I respect what all of you are saying with all of the statistical analysis, what the statistics miss though, is that it is only based on the current situation and current fare levels. With vacation travelers especially, they have a certain amount of money to spend and a certain amount of time to spend it in. Having affordable non-stops generates it's own 'O'. What was the 'O' for passengers between Grand Forks, ND and LAS before G4 started non-stop service compared to what the data says the 'O' is now?

Right now the 'O' for peole flying from LHR-HNL is relatively small, I bet that 'O' would be much larger if you could get to HNL in one day, vs. the 2 day journey it is now.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-01-02 20:31:45 and read 7671 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 89):
I respect what all of you are saying with all of the statistical analysis, what the statistics miss though, is that it is only based on the current situation and current fare levels. With vacation travelers especially, they have a certain amount of money to spend and a certain amount of time to spend it in. Having affordable non-stops generates it's own 'O'. What was the 'O' for passengers between Grand Forks, ND and LAS before G4 started non-stop service compared to what the data says the 'O' is now?

Grand Forks - LAS and LHR-HNL are apples and oranges. G4 and BA have completely different business models. You can take a chance offerings bundled in leisure vacation packages that have a distance of 1200 miles versus 7200.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 89):
Right now the 'O' for peole flying from LHR-HNL is relatively small, I bet that 'O' would be much larger if you could get to HNL in one day, vs. the 2 day journey it is now.

With 1 stop the trip can be under 18 hours. LHR-SEA-HNL on BA/AS is a perfect routing. Some routes are destined to never be served by a non-stop especially if the front of the plane doesn't fill too well. Also some people wouldn't mind a break to stretch their legs too especially those in the back of the plane. I've been considering a trip to the Middle East and since I'll be in Y BOS-ZRH-DXB on LX sounds more appealing than BOS/JFK-DXB on EK.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Pohakuloa
Posted 2013-01-02 20:52:13 and read 7618 times.

My turn to throw my observations/thoughts in to this fray and I'm sure will be quickly flamed thereafter. I will however stay more the to thread topic than the tangents being debated by more than a few of our fellow posters.

Between 2002 and 2007 I flew the MSP-HNL-MSP sectors 2-3 times a year (in both winter and summer while transiting further east) and at those times were on NW DC-10/A333 equipment. Every flight I was on (just by observation) were at least 80% full up front and in back. Obviously on my return to HNL, there were virtually few onward connections to neighbor islands (although hard to see as even transferring to neighbor island flights you would often have to claim your bags and re-check them onward), even in MSP it seemed most passengers from our flights were heading for baggage claim. NW had this flight 6-8 times/week depending on the season and often (though there were some periods not) year round. NW would not have kept this route if it were not at least making slight + margins on the route even including FF redemption. From my observations if they were not making money on the route then there would have been something seriously wrong with the way the airline was run.

You could say this may have been a NW "prestigious route," but NW also had a one stop via SEA as well as other n/s from SEA, PDX & LAX. Saying they could have easily routed them through another city would be easy to point at and yet this route remained in the system all the way through the merger with good loads (again as my observations).

When the NW/DL merger came about, DL changed the 6-8 weekly out of MSP to 3x weekly MSP/4x weekly DTW. My opinion is that the normal loads for the MSP n/s were forced to take 1/2 stop options and even while researching one of my final trips, the DL site would try to route me through SLC or ATL at much lower fares than going through MSP. Because cost was a factor for me at the time and although rather reluctant, I took my stop through LAX-ATL-BWI. This was my last NW/DL trip as I have had no business that way, but the cost would likely have had me go another direction as well.

All these factors/observations likely saw the people in route planning to notice an increase in other one stop itineraries and and in doing so decided to drop it all together in favor of funneling passengers elsewhere on a connection. It does not mean the demand was down, it is very likely the by product of the merger. I believe this is the reason DL has not reloaded the flight into the system as well as a/c utilization. Yes they could make a profit on the route, but perhaps they could make MORE money with the a/c on other routes.

MSP-HNL I believe will work for an airline. I also believe that HA is a prime candidate for launch as HA is probably better than anyone in the world in the O&D business. That notwithstanding, I also believe from the HA side it will come down to one main factor and a lessor secondary factor.
1) Supplemental revenue/flight aka cargo - If HA can garner cargo contracts for mail or other goods on a regular basis, this may be more of a possibility than some here deem credible. HA is not the most expensive on their routes, but where they make their profits (especially on west coast sectors) is it's ability to move cargo to and from the islands.
2) The ability for MAC to lure in JetBlue to the Twin Cities - The recent partnership with B6/HA I am sure plays some role in HA's JFK flights' success. If B6 enters the MSP market it would give the B6 fliers another eastern USA connection possibility to the islands. It could also fill the seats that HA might not do on it's own (whether it be 3 seats or a few dozen).

If HA does venture into the market, I believe that they will use their A332's on this route for 2 reasons. Primarily as mentioned earlier in the thread, maintenance can be accomplished on a longer turn/RON of the aircraft. Secondly, it would be a superior overall product offering than anything else domestically offered within the USA. I also do not believe that DL will defend the market with it's own non-stop because as others have mentioned earlier, if DL wanted to run the route, DL would already be running the route.

MSP-HNL can work. I think it's not so much if, but more a matter of whom/when.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: toobz
Posted 2013-01-03 02:15:58 and read 7487 times.

Good luck to any airline that thinks they'll stay in that market very long. DL is about the only carrier that would start that route. HA would b nuts to start MSP...I'm having a very hard time understanding this entitlement people have on Anet that every city needs nonstops. Those days are over folks!!! Like I said earlier, if MSPers want to go to HI they are absolutely more than welcome to connect in multiple US gateways. There are other ways to go other than nonstop. I don't see DL restarting it unless they got subsidy money from the city. If it would b as profitable as some say DL would b flying it. They know their numbers best and they decided that A330 or 767 could b used elsewhere.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Transpac787
Posted 2013-01-03 04:16:04 and read 7457 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 10):
The problem with DEN service is that ever since the new airport opened it is a been a quite low yielding airport. It works OK under the right situation, but the fees are insane. It is literally $16 or $17 per 1,000 pounds of Max Landing weight.

Nice try.

DEN landing fees range from $3.914 to $4.697 per 1,000#

http://business.flydenver.com/info/r...rules/masters/120_fees_charges.pdf

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 10):
Some major Airports are as low as $1 or $2, and many are $3/$4. And that's just one fee.

As is DEN  

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-03 05:24:21 and read 7401 times.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 75):
If I were MSP, I'd focus more on getting service to or restored from places like MEX, ICN, China, or FRA.
Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 89):
Right now the 'O' for peole flying from LHR-HNL is relatively small, I bet that 'O' would be much larger if you could get to HNL in one day, vs. the 2 day journey it is now.


You can get to HNL in one day though, you go through LAX, SEA, or SFO as well as through DFW on AA to HNL on a non-stop flight from London and take an afternoon flight to HNL. You don't have to stop in MSP which although I like it, I suspect that it takes longer to fly through MSP than LAX or any other west coast gateway. It is just a long, long, long day. You could even use AC or use BA to go through YVR and connect to the later flight on WS to HNL. This is a shorter routing than through MSP.

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 91):
Between 2002 and 2007 I flew the MSP-HNL-MSP sectors 2-3 times a year (in both winter and summer while transiting further east) and at those times were on NW DC-10/A333 equipment. Every flight I was on (just by observation) were at least 80% full up front and in back. Obviously on my return to HNL, there were virtually few onward connections to neighbor islands (although hard to see as even transferring to neighbor island flights you would often have to claim your bags and re-check them onward), even in MSP it seemed most passengers from our flights were heading for baggage claim. NW had this flight 6-8 times/week depending on the season and often (though there were some periods not) year round. NW would not have kept this route if it were not at least making slight margins on the route even including FF redemption. From my observations if they were not making money on the route then there would have been something seriously wrong with the way the airline was run.

You have to realize that MSP was a major hub for NW and that they had no other connections to HNL to funnel passengers through in the mid west. DL has SLC to funnel people through. They also have a non-stop from ATL that has connections from the eastern seaboard. DL did try to make a go of it but found it to be a low margin route and make more money by putting people through LAX and ATL. Hawaii is a low yield route as it is mainly a vacation destination and most of the Business class passengers are using their FF miles to get to HNL. It is not a business destination for the majority of travelers flying to the Hawaiian islands. Just go on a flight from the mainland and see that the majority of the passengers are traveling for pleasure and thus not interested in buying the expensive seats but flying in the "I want to fly as cheap as I can" section of the aircraft, hence the lack of a lot of available F seats if the aircraft even have F class available. AC doesn't even fly their international 767's to HNL due to the lack of premium traffic on that route. DL flies their 76P aircraft which doesn't have a premium F product and the other airlines do the same.

[Edited 2013-01-03 05:28:45]

[Edited 2013-01-03 05:30:01]

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-04 01:41:46 and read 7056 times.

Quoting toobz (Reply 92):
HA would b nuts to start MSP...I'm having a very hard time understanding this entitlement people have on Anet that every city needs nonstops.

It's not an entitlement, it's what consumers want, and one of the few "amenities" that they are willing to pay more for.

I'm actually having a hard time understanding why you think HA couldn't make it work. First off, HA has much lower CASM then Delta. Second, just because an airline doesn't fly a route doesn't mean that it can't make money, I'm not sure if it's the case on this particular route, but it is also possible that Delta makes MORE money by forcing people through one of their hubs as opposed to offering a non-stop. So if you're Delta, you have a choice of making X on the non-stop or X + a little more witout a nonstop. Couple that with the fact that Hawaii is not a high priority market for Delta so the plane may be in more demand elsewhere. It is easy to think of many reasons MSP could loose the non-stop to HNL in the context of the DL network.

HA on the other hand does not have the option of running their MSP-HNL pax through some other hub. HA either makes X or makes 0, there is no inbetween. Additionally, HNL is THE important city in HA's structure, so it is easy to see how analyst at HA say yes, even while their counter-parts at DL said no.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: toobz
Posted 2013-01-04 02:09:03 and read 7049 times.

Consumers may want it, but they obviously aren't paying for it...what a shocker. If DL were to command the yield it needed on the route, they would be flying it still. End of story...I don't know why on earth u think that DL would have quit the route if people were paying and DL was making money. They aren't fools.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-01-04 02:20:26 and read 7052 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 94):
You have to realize that MSP was a major hub for NW and that they had no other connections to HNL to funnel passengers through in the mid west. DL has SLC to funnel people through. They also have a non-stop from ATL that has connections from the eastern seaboard. DL did try to make a go of it but found it to be a low margin route and make more money by putting people through LAX and ATL.

This.

Delta cut the route after moving some of it to DTW. What this says is Delta could find a better place to send the A330(which, during the winter included a stop at VCV for a few months).....IMO in the Delta network it didn't make money. Delta can send 753/752/76Ps from SEA/LAX/SFO/SLC and the 333 from ATL and give itself enough coverage to Hawaii.


What i don't understand is why on earth the MAC is wasting it's time with HNL? IMO would be much better to push the money to Asia(ICN) or Europe(FRA)....Both of which I think they could get Delta to start with the right amount of cash. Oh well.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-04 05:20:31 and read 6977 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
What i don't understand is why on earth the MAC is wasting it's time with HNL? IMO would be much better to push the money to Asia(ICN) or Europe(FRA)....Both of which I think they could get Delta to start with the right amount of cash. Oh well.

I agree. Do you think that they should maybe push LHR with the partial buy out of VS and their connections through London that DL may not serve, although its not like there are many international destinations that DL doesn't serve that VS serves?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: steex
Posted 2013-01-04 08:09:02 and read 6901 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 98):
I agree. Do you think that they should maybe push LHR with the partial buy out of VS and their connections through London that DL may not serve, although its not like there are many international destinations that DL doesn't serve that VS serves?

I don't think it makes sense to front money for LHR service when DL is already flying MSP-LHR.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-01-04 08:17:34 and read 6881 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
What i don't understand is why on earth the MAC is wasting it's time

We discussed that MSP wanted to do a major rebuilt that was (from what I can see) just a money spending exercise. The press I read on it was very skeptical -- why would you rebuild one of the better airports in the nation whose growth is unlikely? Worse, it appeared MSP was favoring Delta to an improper extent. The waters looked dark and murky.

MAC is scrambling to show the public it is doing something useful and less absurd than their long range plan. So it is chasing a flight like smaller airport authorities do. HNL is sound byte MAC will use to say hey, we deserve to keep taxing every passenger at MSP.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-04 08:22:07 and read 6865 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 99):
I don't think it makes sense to front money for LHR service when DL is already flying MSP-LHR.

I was responding to this comment:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
What i don't understand is why on earth the MAC is wasting it's time with HNL? IMO would be much better to push the money to Asia(ICN) or Europe(FRA)....Both of which I think they could get Delta to start with the right amount of cash. Oh well.



This statement was in response to my earlier statement that there is no business case to fund the HNL route that DL did not want to do due to low profitability. Please read my previous posts.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: steex
Posted 2013-01-04 08:33:06 and read 6890 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 101):
This statement was in response to my earlier statement that there is no business case to fund the HNL route that DL did not want to do due to low profitability. Please read my previous posts.

I did read your previous posts, that connection wasn't apparent to me. The suggestion of potentially funding FRA and ICN, both of which are routes DL has never flown from MSP with its current network (and currently have no MSP non-stop service), doesn't seem to illicit a response that suggests instead funding LHR, a route DL currently flies from MSP.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: superjeff
Posted 2013-01-04 08:34:36 and read 6894 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 45):
I think Hawaiian will soon (in the next year) announce a NB order of either the MAX or NEO. This will be the 717 replacement and I think they will then switch most of the Hawaii-West Coast traffic to NB's with probably a few WB's on some of the larger markets/busy days of the week. I think they will then start opening some new cities beyond the range of the NB's, i.e. MSP, DEN, Texas, etc. with the freed up WB's.

HA needs the 717's for their core interisland service in Hawaii. Neither the NEO nor MAX will work for flights of a 100-200 mile stage length. They won't be replacing the 717's anytime soon.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-04 10:13:38 and read 6812 times.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 93):
Nice try.

DEN landing fees range from $3.914 to $4.697 per 1,000#

Just to add a little to the conversation about MSP and cost - the latest statistics for MSP show $2.42/1,000 pounds, which would be noticeably less than DEN for a large plane. Both these airports are very reasonable.

Also worthy of note:
At $6.32, MSP's 2010 estimated cost to airlines per enplaned passenger ranks among the lower third of large hub airports. The 2008 estimated national average is $9 based on rating agency information and various airport Bond Official Statements.
http://www.mspairport.com/about-msp/statistics.aspx

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-01-04 10:24:47 and read 6782 times.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 93):

Doh! I read it was $16. No idea where. You win. I know DEN was higher by a lot 10-15 years ago.

It looks like DEN will still have a higher cost per enplanemago, though not by as much as I stated.

I would love to see HA here at DEN soon, but I honestly see them starting MSP first.

UA takes most of the premium pax from DEN, but looking at the HA configurations, premium is not their goal.

As far as WN connections, most of California works fine.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: MSPNWA
Posted 2013-01-04 10:29:55 and read 6797 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 95):
Couple that with the fact that Hawaii is not a high priority market for Delta so the plane may be in more demand elsewhere.

This cannot be stressed enough. DL is the only major U.S. carrier to have significantly cut Hawaii capacity in the last 5 years. It's not been a important market for Delta lately. The trends for HA have been a different story.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
What i don't understand is why on earth the MAC is wasting it's time with HNL? IMO would be much better to push the money to Asia(ICN) or Europe(FRA)....Both of which I think they could get Delta to start with the right amount of cash. Oh well.

Well I'd consider HNL to be in that same category. It has to be one of the largest MSP markets without a nonstop flight. And if I remember right, cities like FRA have already been on the MAC's radar.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: af773atmsp
Posted 2013-01-04 11:55:18 and read 6706 times.

Back in 2004 or 2005 the MAC was offering incentives to any foreign carrier to start flights to MSP (most likely intended towards BA to LHR, LH to FRA, KE to ICN, etc.)

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-01-04 12:00:00 and read 6704 times.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 106):
Well I'd consider HNL to be in that same category. It has to be one of the largest MSP markets without a nonstop flight. And if I remember right, cities like FRA have already been on the MAC's radar.


It could probably fill a plane, doesnt mean it will make a profit. HNL-Interior US is not a huge pot of gold.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-04 12:44:15 and read 6662 times.

Quoting superjeff (Reply 103):

HA needs the 717's for their core interisland service in Hawaii. Neither the NEO nor MAX will work for flights of a 100-200 mile stage length. They won't be replacing the 717's anytime soon.

Dunkerly has stated in no uncertain terms that they are actively looking for a 717 replacement to come online in the 2017ish time frame. This statement was made in the last quarterly conference call.

There are very strong rumors within HA that they are looking at an ETOPS certiied NB to compete with the AS/SWA threat.

So what does HA's fleet look like in 2020.
A350, A330, MAX/NEO, RJ, ATR
or
A350, A330, MAX/NEO, ATR.

I personally think they would be better off with one less fleet type. The market between the islands in Hawaii is huge with no option to drive, so traditional analysis goes out the window. There are 747's running between islands in the orient so I don't think a MAX or NEO flying between the Hawaiian islands would be that far out of line.

Dunkerly has also stated that he intends to focus on increasing domestic destinations outside the range of the NB threat...which puts HNL-MSP into consideration.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: azjubilee
Posted 2013-01-04 12:51:07 and read 6658 times.

You misheard. HAL is NOT actively looking at a 717 replacement. They are happy with the 717 for now and will eventually revisit the issue. You are on to something however, with your second point. There will be NO RJs at HAL either. By the time the 350s are delivered the mainline fleet will be this: 22 332s, 18 717s, 6 763s and 6 350s. There is a gap between the last 332 delivery and the beginning of the 350 deliveries. So... let the speculation begin.

[Edited 2013-01-04 12:53:07]

And to stay on topic... IF and it's a big IF HAL were to start flying to MSP, it would very likely be done with a 763. True, DL does mx on the 332s in MSP, but only every few years per ship. Certainly not in enough frequency to justify sending the 332 there to combine mx cycles with regular service. I would venture a guess that HAL constantly evaluates possible cities for new service, but I would think their assets can be better deployed elsewhere at this point.


[Edited 2013-01-04 13:04:32]

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-04 14:25:15 and read 6588 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 109):
MAX/NEO

Those types of aircraft are not going to replace any aircraft in the current fleet. If you are thinking that the 717 would be replaced by the NEO or the MAX, they are not financially viable with the type of flying that HA does with its 717. If they use them to the US mainland ala UA, then they must be changing their thinking.

If HA were thinking of increasing their reach into the continental US, they would be wise to look at more west coast routes. I could see them more or less expanding into the trans-pacific markets in China, SE Asia, and other Australian markets though.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-08 03:13:12 and read 6160 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 111):
If they use them to the US mainland ala UA, then they must be changing their thinking.



I guess they are changing their way of thinking!





[Edited 2013-01-08 03:13:52]

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-08 03:20:29 and read 6158 times.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 110):
You misheard. HAL is NOT actively looking at a 717 replacement. They are happy with the 717 for now and will eventually revisit the issue.

Perhaps I misheard on the conference call, but a 717 replacement is in play now. Pilot LOA for the NEO has language covering a 717 replacement by an "Airbus 319" sized aircraft, so it may not be the model I envisioned, whcih was to have the same NB that is doing interisland do west coast...but I do think the 717's replacement has been found.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: drerx7
Posted 2013-01-08 03:59:15 and read 6127 times.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 113):
Perhaps I misheard on the conference call, but a 717 replacement is in play now. Pilot LOA for the NEO has language covering a 717 replacement by an "Airbus 319" sized aircraft, so it may not be the model I envisioned, whcih was to have the same NB that is doing interisland do west coast...but I do think the 717's replacement has been found.

It hasn't been found. The 717 replacement will be something along the lines of a C series or E190 type of aircraft. The economics of the 319/Neo...or 737NG/Max do not favor these 20-30 min hops...especially without engine cool down time. Remember that AQ tried to retire there 73S interisland in favor of 73G/734/733 - didn't work out well and they went back to the trusty JT8Ds

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: azjubilee
Posted 2013-01-08 14:34:35 and read 5936 times.

Again, "PassedV1" you are misinformed. The current events regarding NB airplanes at HAL is NOT 717 replacement. You are either misunderstanding the language in the LOA or someone is giving you bad information.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-01-09 04:21:42 and read 5688 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 98):

I agree. Do you think that they should maybe push LHR with the partial buy out of VS and their connections through London that DL may not serve, although its not like there are many international destinations that DL doesn't serve that VS serves?

they should be pushing for FRA and/or ICN. HNL is a waste. (now, Don't get me wrong, any of the three, depending on how much money we are talking here, could be flown by Delta)
No point paying for LHR flights. (and DL/VS will have a JV and are very unlikely to waste 2nd LHR slot on MSP)

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 106):

Well I'd consider HNL to be in that same category. It has to be one of the largest MSP markets without a nonstop flight. And if I remember right, cities like FRA have already been on the MAC's radar.

Why because of flight time? FRA/ICN would be much higher yielding.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 106):
This cannot be stressed enough. DL is the only major U.S. carrier to have significantly cut Hawaii capacity in the last 5 years. It's not been a important market for Delta lately.

Delta has changed it network, Again, They would have to use an International airplane for MSP-HNL when they can use domestic aircraft for SFO/SEA/LAX/SLC-HNL.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 108):

It could probably fill a plane, doesnt mean it will make a profit. HNL-Interior US is not a huge pot of gold.

and this doesn't help. Plus a ton of new east coast-HNL capacity wont help.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-09 10:05:26 and read 5550 times.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 115):
Again, "PassedV1" you are misinformed. The current events regarding NB airplanes at HAL is NOT 717 replacement. You are either misunderstanding the language in the LOA or someone is giving you bad information.

I know the current events are not 717 replacement. I think we are just talking about different timelines. The 717 is going to be replaced, I don't think there is any disputing that. Much of what I am saying is just speculating, much of what I am saying is based on what people I know tell me they are working on within HA. They don't make the final decisions, needless to say, but they ARE STUDYING the scenarios that I am talking about. I've been saying for awhile on here and other forums that HA was looking at some NB for the West Coast and I stuck to it in spite of all the nay-sayers on here ad even at HA talking about how much it wasn't in HA's business model yadayadayada...well, it's not in their business model until it is.

Once you get the NEO's, then it is only natural that you start looking at using them inter-island at least on peak days. At the very least you will probably generate a number of repo flights, which you may as well sell the seats on, which will probably reduce the flight hours on the 717. Less inter-island demand, if HA isn't even connnecting many of it's OWN passengers through HNL. Then you have the ATR's coming online. The less 717's you have flying, the greater the fixed cost/plane. People on here are insisting that the NEO's can't be used effectively inter-island, but I am not convinced. Conventional wisdom says that the 717's won't work for this market, either. It is 90 miles between HNL and OGG, conventional wisdom says to take a bus. I see no reason why 24 flights a day on a 717 can't be replaced by 18 on a NEO and still make money. Whatever "inefficiencies" that arrangement causes I think will be more than made up for by the single fleet type, single crews, and being able to route airplanes/crews HNL-OGG-SJC, etc. Or put a different way, the efficiencies gained by replacing the 717's with a more ideal non-airbus NB (i.e. CRJ-1000) does not offset the extra cost of having an additional fleet type.

If not NEO's...then what does HA replace the 717s with?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-09 13:23:35 and read 5453 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 116):
they should be pushing for FRA and/or ICN. HNL is a waste. (now, Don't get me wrong, any of the three, depending on how much money we are talking here, could be flown by Delta)
No point paying for LHR flights. (and DL/VS will have a JV and are very unlikely to waste 2nd LHR slot on MSP)

Yes, I did not think of that but when I was writing my prevous posts I was working from my hotel room in London and completely exhausted.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 117):
If not NEO's...then what does HA replace the 717s with?

The C-Liner, the MRJ, although that really is not an option, E-190 or what Japan is developing. The 717s are not that old are they?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: prost
Posted 2013-01-09 13:34:47 and read 5445 times.

This map indicates that the A321NEO would be able to handle MSP-HNL:

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=msp-hnl&R=3650nm%40hnl%0D%0A&MS=wls&DU=nm

Question is, could it do the route year round with winds?

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: toobz
Posted 2013-01-09 14:02:14 and read 5388 times.

Wow I certainly had no idea the NEO had THAT kind of ability!!!

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: azjubilee
Posted 2013-01-09 15:12:27 and read 5335 times.

PassedV1 -

THere will naturally be inter island flying done to position these 321s for non HNL flying, much like the occasional 767 that flies HNL-OGG-HNL. My guess is that this would be under certain circumstances and not as a matter of regular practice. The language in the pilot and FA LOAs will address this very issue and could potentially be a sticking point. At HAL the "worldwide" pilots (330/767) have work rules that differ slightly from the 717 pilots. As the 321s will be considered "worldwide" they'll fall under those rules and it therefore won't be as easy to throw the 321 onto scheduled multiple trips inter island.

The 717s will be around until 2020. They are happy with them and as of now, there is no viable replacement a/c. Much like the current NB scenario HAL finds itself in at the moment, until the NEO there wasn't a viable a/c that fit HALs needs to launch a NB operation. Could the 717s be replaced by a smaller Airbus NEO? Perhaps. I too think, conventional wisdom regarding failed operations with the 737-300/400 is comparing apples to oranges. Nobody really knows how the NEO engines will handle a very high cycle environment such as HALs neighbor island flying. Therefore, I do believe that a smaller NEO NB could be in the cards... just not right now with these 16+9 321s.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: PassedV1
Posted 2013-01-09 20:46:20 and read 5201 times.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 121):
As the 321s will be considered "worldwide" they'll fall under those rules and it therefore won't be as easy to throw the 321 onto scheduled multiple trips inter island.

Yes, but there is an interveneing ammendable date, and these contracts are rengotiable at any point in time anyway.

I think it's pretty clear we're in overall agreement then, you're talking about 2017-2020, i'm talking about 2020-2023.

Aloha

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: MSPNWA
Posted 2013-01-09 22:14:38 and read 5149 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 116):
Why because of flight time? FRA/ICN would be much higher yielding.

No, because of the demand. It's a special route for MSP. And why should the MAC care about airline financials? That's the airline's job. They're there primarily to help the MSP consumer, and they want an HNL flight back.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 116):
Delta has changed it network, Again, They would have to use an International airplane for MSP-HNL when they can use domestic aircraft for SFO/SEA/LAX/SLC-HNL.

Exactly the point. They've changed their network to where Hawaii is not a priority, unlike most every other domestic carrier.

Topic: RE: MSP Hopes To Regain Non-stop Flights To Hawaii
Username: azjubilee
Posted 2013-01-09 23:25:26 and read 5096 times.

PassedV1 - I guess we are on the same page. Only 2017-2020 is falling into place, where beyond 2020 is pure speculation at this point.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/