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Topic: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: spud757
Posted 2012-12-27 10:52:57 and read 18433 times.

With the end of the BA/QF JV and the start of QFs venture to hub roo route pax via DXB rather than via SIN, what do people think BA will do next.

Will BA work on a new JV with MH to hub pax via KUL? In effect replacing SIN as the scissor hub. Doesn't seem to make much sense offering connections over SIN if there's a new 1W member hub down the road at KUL.

Could we see BA work with QR in EKs backyard on a new JV via DOH?

Or will BA simply work more informally within the 1W alliance with CX, QF and the new 1W members to get its customers to Oz/NZ destinations other than SYD?

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2012-12-27 11:37:07 and read 18223 times.

Quite simple deliver all Australian passengers into Sydney and dump them for onward connections on still Oneworld partner QF.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-12-27 11:41:20 and read 18175 times.

BA will probably stop flying to Sydney in a few years. Qatar and Malaysia can provide the SYD link or other Australian cities from their hubs.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2012-12-27 11:43:41 and read 18148 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):

BA will probably stop flying to Sydney in a few years. Qatar and Malaysia can provide the SYD link or other Australian cities from their hubs.

Do tend to agree as a midium term strategy !

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-27 11:44:56 and read 18124 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
BA will probably stop flying to Sydney in a few years.

I think that's impossible... No matter what BA will never leave the Australian market completely.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2012-12-27 11:49:25 and read 18086 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 4):
I think that's impossible... No matter what BA will never leave the Australian market completely.

Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

Australia is no longer a sacred cow.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-27 12:02:07 and read 17981 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 5):
Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: OzarkD9S
Posted 2012-12-27 12:06:43 and read 17924 times.

Quoting VCy,reply=6

:
I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

BA would turn it over to a partner in a heartbeat if it made economic sense, just like QF did with EK.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-27 12:08:19 and read 17904 times.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 7):
just like QF did with EK.

QF will still fly to LHR though, just via DXB.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-12-27 12:10:57 and read 17874 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 5):
Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

Australia is no longer a sacred cow.

The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: iFlyLOTs
Posted 2012-12-27 12:13:04 and read 17860 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 8):

And using EK equipment. QF to Europe is now going to be through EK in DXB

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-27 12:21:57 and read 17781 times.

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 10):
QF to Europe is now going to be through EK in DXB

Previously the only European destinations with QF service (recently) were LHR and FRA. LHR will get both EK and QF. So, LHR is not going to lose QF's service to SYD, FRA will.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: OzarkD9S
Posted 2012-12-27 12:25:24 and read 17742 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 11):


So, LHR is not going to lose QF's service to SYD, FRA will.

For now. Route dynamics are changing DAILY. If it can't be done nonstop in the future, pax will be handed over to partners at logical transfer points.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-27 12:31:50 and read 17676 times.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 12):
For now. Route dynamics are changing DAILY.

Exactly! You never know what will happen in this industry. I mean who would of thought 5 years ago that QF and EK would enter such deep co operation? Maybe BA will pull out of SYD or maybe they ll expand to MEL as well.. Only time will show  

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: FlyCaledonian
Posted 2012-12-27 14:53:04 and read 17094 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 6):
I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

LHR-SIN-SYD, with the 77W from the end of March 2013, will effectively tie up three longhaul aircraft. Three of BA's newest longhaul aircraft at that. BA is doing that because it's going to help it improve CASM on the route. But if BA thinks those three 77Ws could be employed elsewhere more profitably, and if it had an Asian partner that could serve the main Australian ports, then it would redeploy them.

History and prestige count for little today. If it did, BA would be using the other 14 weekly flights to Australia allowed to a British carrier until the UK-Oz bilateral. But it's about profit. BA dropped LHR-SIN-MEL because it could redeploy the aircraft used on the SIN-MEL sector to operate a round-trip to India after the UK-India bilateral was relaxed to allow more flights.

From late March 2013 BA is already cutting back on the number of routes it codeshares on with QF. I wouldn't be surprised that if in the first few months of 2013 BA announced plans for a new JV with one of its oneworld partners (or future partners): -

Qatar Airways - I believe it's been said in another thread that Qatar is currently limited to two Australian ports (Perth and Melbourne). A link-up with BA could give Qatar access to other markets if they could get a JV approved (Sydney on 77W, and possibly Brisbane on 77E, on BA via DOH).

Malaysia Airways - With two A380s operating KUL-LHR there is certainly plenty of seats that a BA/MH link-up could fill. BA would gain access to other key Australian ports via KUL. Question is whether BA would want to operate LHR-KUL in its own right, and if it did whether there would be an onward flight to SYD. I can't really see BA linking up with MH and not operating any flights itself though.

Cathay Pacific - Both carriers have onward codeshares from their respective hubs, including HKG-AKL for BA. Adding codeshares to ADL, MEL, SYD, BNE, CNS would certainly give BA access to the key Australian markets. However, LHR-HKG-PER would be a back-track route. This is the option that would require the least additional resource for BA, and it could probably be easily done to operate a HKG-SYD tag vice the current SIN-SYD tag.

QF codeshares will likely continue from key Australian ports to onward destinations in Australia, but I can't see BA wanting to keep them up from Asian ports if it gets a new partner. It'll be interesting to see exactly what BA does.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: anstar
Posted 2012-12-27 15:02:03 and read 17041 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 6):
I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

Prestige doesn't count for much in the new BA.... and BA have pulled out of routes that VS continue to fly - take MBJ as the example.

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 10):
And using EK equipment. QF to Europe is now going to be through EK in DXB

QF will still fly its own metal on 2 x daily A380 flights to LHR via DXB.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: LX138
Posted 2012-12-27 15:13:48 and read 16964 times.

Quoting anstar (Reply 15):
take MBJ as the example.

But they still serve the island via KIN

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 14):
Qatar Airways - I believe it's been said in another thread that Qatar is currently limited to two Australian ports (Perth and Melbourne). A link-up with BA could give Qatar access to other markets if they could get a JV approved (Sydney on 77W, and possibly Brisbane on 77E, on BA via DOH).

Malaysia Airways - With two A380s operating KUL-LHR there is certainly plenty of seats that a BA/MH link-up could fill. BA would gain access to other key Australian ports via KUL. Question is whether BA would want to operate LHR-KUL in its own right, and if it did whether there would be an onward flight to SYD. I can't really see BA linking up with MH and not operating any flights itself though.

Cathay Pacific - Both carriers have onward codeshares from their respective hubs, including HKG-AKL for BA. Adding codeshares to ADL, MEL, SYD, BNE, CNS would certainly give BA access to the key Australian markets. However, LHR-HKG-PER would be a back-track route. This is the option that would require the least additional resource for BA, and it could probably be easily done to operate a HKG-SYD tag vice the current SIN-SYD tag.

QF codeshares will likely continue from key Australian ports to onward destinations in Australia, but I can't see BA wanting to keep them up from Asian ports if it gets a new partner. It'll be interesting to see exactly what BA does.

QR: Can't see them teaming up with QR for Aus - they don't want to give them any more of the Aus market than they currently and are wanting to get hold off, plus QR don't have much to offer flight wise themselves.

MH: BA know far too little about them at this stage although location wise - and network wise, they would be a sound partner for an Aus venture.

CX: Would be a good choice to partner with and their coverage of Aus is good.

QF: Might be worth continuing with a partnership with QF out of SIN, HKG - or heck.. DXB!

It's worth noting BA's dislike of wanting to codeshare on other carriers long-haul services, they only do it when they have to - and this is something i'm sure would be considered in any venture.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: QFVHOQA
Posted 2012-12-27 15:15:56 and read 16952 times.

I don't see BA switching LHR-SIN-SYD to LHR-KUL-SYD. Perhaps if they ditch the SYD tag, they will fly LHR-KUL and hand pax over to MH for SYD/MEL/BNE/PER/ADL.

An agreement with CX seems unlikely, CX is quite independent and has more flights LHR-HKG than BA does. I see QR as the best chance, but QR has been quite vocal they will not fly to SYD until the curfew is lifted (which is never going to happen).

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-12-27 16:16:42 and read 16690 times.

There are no indications of BA dropping the kangaroo route and matter of fact the route is receiving an equipment upgrade from an aged B744 to B77W from 31st of March 2013...

British Airways from 31MAR13 is changing operational aircraft to Australia, with the introduction of Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on daily London Heathrow – Singapore – Sydney service. Boeing 777 operation from Sydney begins from 02APR13.

http://airlineroute.net/2012/10/31/ba-syd-s13/

EK413

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-12-27 20:23:31 and read 16040 times.

BA is waiting and watching. It's hard to know what's going to happen for them on this route past March, but my impression is that they are giving the route the best possible chance to succeed.

I think it's fair therefore to say that they want to stay in Australia. It would have been very easy to call it quits next year, but they have instead announced more competitive equipment and started advertising in Sydney (even if the ads themselves are rather boring and lacklustre).

I think QR is a strong option down the road -- they offer a connection to MEL and PER which BA can supplement with a service to SYD. DOH also massively expands their opportunities to get into a more Europe-Australia mind frame rather than the existing, and far less competitive, LHR-SYD mind frame.

It's also worth remembering that BA has stated that they don't think they can make the route work without a close partner. Initially it wounded like they were starting to justify a withdrawal from Australia, but it now seems likely to me that they are just starting to work on convincing the ACCC of the need for a JV down the track.

Either way, we'll know within 24 months. Either BA will crumble without QF and will be gone within a year or they will follow in QF's footsteps and find themselves a friend.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-12-27 23:15:40 and read 14835 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 19):
Either way, we'll know within 24 months. Either BA will crumble without QF and will be gone within a year or they will follow in QF's footsteps and find themselves a friend.

As previously stated I'm sure a LHR-DOH-SYD service would work along side the QF LHR-DXB-SYD, MEL services EK413

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: nclmedic
Posted 2012-12-28 03:03:50 and read 12884 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 4):
I think that's impossible... No matter what BA will never leave the Australian market completely.

You might also had said a few years back that QF would never leave the UK....

It makes sense for BA to use their aircraft for routes that make the most money. AFAIK Aus has never brought in much cash for BA and requires several 744s/crews in simultaneous use, with lots of down time. Probably makes more sense in the short term to cut their losses and funnel passengers through a middle/far east partner....

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: gemuser
Posted 2012-12-28 03:24:50 and read 12662 times.

Quoting nclmedic (Reply 21):

You might also had said a few years back that QF would never leave the UK..

?????
QF still serve the UK, once daily from both SYD & MEL.
So I reallllly don't get your comment.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: Lofty
Posted 2012-12-28 04:03:49 and read 12276 times.

Why stick to one route when you can have many. The customer wants to choose so you end up with many options:

BA over SIN
QR over DOH
CX over HKG
MH over KUL

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: n729pa
Posted 2012-12-28 04:56:23 and read 11826 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9):
The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties.

So when are BA going to stop flying to the US then?


It will come down to money at the end of the day, but if they were to pull out, then a tie up with MH would on the face of it seem most logic given their 1W status and their ability to serve other cities apart from SYD and MEL.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-12-28 05:05:11 and read 12176 times.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 24):

If QF couldn't make it work what makes you think BA will... & lets forget QR is a OW member too... & end of the day QR are in a far better financial position than MH...

EK413

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-12-28 05:38:16 and read 12020 times.

I am told BA are very reluctant to leave SYD and every effort will be made to fix this. Indeed BA are now looking east again which is overdue IMHO

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-12-28 05:45:50 and read 12235 times.

Quoting anstar (Reply 15):

That's one route BA pulled and VS pulled KIN at exactly the same time. Coincidence? Doubtful. VS are a side order here, they're not relevant. I was on VS200 this week and you could count on your fingers and toes who was going onto SYD from HKG.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: n729pa
Posted 2012-12-28 05:51:58 and read 12123 times.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 25):
If QF couldn't make it work what makes you think BA will... & lets forget QR is a OW member too... & end of the day QR are in a far better financial position than MH...

I haven't necessarily said they would, but I think BA will keep SYD, in the same way QF have kept LHR, but beyond that as QF have shown, BA will need a bedfellow to help serve the ADL/PER/BNE/MEL markets too.

Personally I would have though a KUL stopover would be a more appealing route that DOH. Apart from the night MotoGP race, there's not much to intace stopovers in DOH in the same way as BKK/SIN/HKG has in the past. Also (this is just my opinion), by selecting KUL and MH, you strengthen your (BA) presence in SE Asia, you maintain the Stopover traffic and you are in more direct competition with Star Alliance carriers such as SQ/TG or Skyteams China Southern for example. It also opens up some of the other smaller SE Asian markets perhaps with MH too, for BA.

Anyway I'm sure we'll find out before too long.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-28 05:56:07 and read 12080 times.

It would be good to see a similar situation with MH and BA. BA flies LHR-KUL-SYD with its own metal and with MH's, thus making it easier for passengers to connect from KUL to other Australian cities and AKL.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-12-28 06:06:28 and read 11967 times.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 28):
Personally I would have though a KUL stopover would be a more appealing route that DOH. Apart from the night MotoGP race, there's not much to intace stopovers in DOH in the same way as BKK/SIN/HKG has in the past. Also (this is just my opinion), by selecting KUL and MH, you strengthen your (BA) presence in SE Asia, you maintain the Stopover traffic and you are in more direct competition with Star Alliance carriers such as SQ/TG or Skyteams China Southern for example. It also opens up some of the other smaller SE Asian markets perhaps with MH too, for BA.

If Asia is the main point of focus, I'll select HKG over KUL... I'm not sure as to the relationship status between BA & CX...
CX has a very strong presence in Australia with multiple flights to SYD, MEL, BNE, ADL, PER and CNS... Plus BA have indicated HKG as a key route to operate their A380 with HKG presently served 3 x daily...

EK413

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: JerseyFlyer
Posted 2012-12-28 06:13:42 and read 11903 times.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 14):
Cathay Pacific - Both carriers have onward codeshares from their respective hubs, including HKG-AKL for BA. Adding codeshares to ADL, MEL, SYD, BNE, CNS would certainly give BA access to the key Australian markets.

....the volumes for which will be supported soon by BA A380s on LHR - HKG.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 28):
Personally I would have though a KUL stopover would be a more appealing route that DOH.

Agree for tourist traffic, KUL is an excellent centre for SE Asia flying via Air Asia as well as MH. For business less so.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2012-12-28 07:28:53 and read 11238 times.

BA has a crew base in Singapore, and these work the SIN-SYD rotation, cargo uplift out of Singapore is high - The 77W is ideal for pallets.

Deployment of the relatively small 77W fleet on this route may help the economics over the 744.

By the way BA/QF connections over Singapore remain available

To Perth remains just 2 hours stop over
To Adelaide 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - You arrive later in Adelaide than waiting in Singapore through)
To Melbourne 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - and arrive 2 hours later in Melbourne)
To Brisbane 4 hours (the pattern changing in Sydney as above - Shorter lay over but arrive later at destination)
To Cairns they route you through Sydney with 4 hour lay over.

From the perspective of a BA ticket holder routing over Singapore and OW partner nothing has changed

The options of shifting to KUL or DOH may weaken these elements

Again through i think the route is difficult to sustain mid term

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: TC957
Posted 2012-12-28 07:34:39 and read 11168 times.

I think it is a very brave move for BA to be tying 3 premium-heavy 77W's on the LHR-SYD run next summer when these aircraft can surely be used more profitably elsewhere. But it shows commitment to the route.
I expect in future the big 3 from China to nibble away at market share on Lon- Australia traffic, visa restrictions on stop-overs already being eased and a very keen pricing policy in premium cabins.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2012-12-28 08:02:43 and read 10889 times.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 33):

I think it is a very brave move for BA to be tying 3 premium-heavy 77W's on the LHR-SYD run next summer when these aircraft can surely be used more profitably elsewhere. But it shows commitment to the route.

BA current 744 aircraft deployed on this route are F14 J52 W36 Y235 Total = 337

The 77W is F14 J56 W44 Y186 =300 - A reduction in non profit tourist (Those price sensitive will surely drift to MEB3/QF) yet 8 extra tourist plus but virtually no difference up front.

Down below boxes however have
77W- 44 containers
744 - 32 containers

Actually its a change to increase yields WITHOUT dramatically increasing the premium cabin.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: nclmedic
Posted 2012-12-28 10:31:05 and read 9454 times.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 22):
QF still serve the UK, once daily from both SYD & MEL.
So I reallllly don't get your comment.

Indeed they still do, but (as many previous posters have alluded to), now their JSA with BA is ending, and they've recently tied up with EK, the likely future picture looks like they will pull out of the UK all together and simply codeshare. This is in addition to QF actually making noises near enough to this effect from their own press office....

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: FlyCaledonian
Posted 2012-12-28 10:35:39 and read 9423 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 32):
By the way BA/QF connections over Singapore remain available

To Perth remains just 2 hours stop over
To Adelaide 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - You arrive later in Adelaide than waiting in Singapore through)
To Melbourne 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - and arrive 2 hours later in Melbourne)
To Brisbane 4 hours (the pattern changing in Sydney as above - Shorter lay over but arrive later at destination)
To Cairns they route you through Sydney with 4 hour lay over.

They remain because they aren't rushing to get a new partner in place. A number of codeshares ex-SYD have already been dropped from March 2013 though. If BA links up with MH or CX, then I'd expect the onward options from SIN to be dropped as direct codeshares. I'd be surprised if QF was still codesharing with BA on flights to LHR from Asian ports after October 2013, and just codesharing on flights from LHR that partner EK doesn't cover.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: babybus
Posted 2012-12-28 10:38:38 and read 9389 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 5):
Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

I think that may be a bit naive. There is also the political aspects of such a withdrawal. BA pulls out of Australia and the Ozzies rethink their devotion to the Commonwealth and monarchy. It's a highly symbolic route.

We can also see how important that route is to the Gulf carriers.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: Kiwinlondon
Posted 2012-12-28 11:44:48 and read 9129 times.

Quoting Babybus - I think that may be a bit naive. There is also the political aspects of such a withdrawal. BA pulls out of Australia and the Ozzies rethink their devotion to the Commonwealth and monarchy. It's a highly symbolic route.

That is nonsense. Are you seriously suggesting that an airline maintains a route to stop Australia leaving the Commonwealth? BA is in business to make money. If BA are maintaining the route solely for this purpose.... they need to .....wake up and coffee come mind.

Kiwinlondon

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2012-12-28 12:18:14 and read 9074 times.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 36):
They remain because they aren't rushing to get a new partner in place. A number of codeshares ex-SYD have already been dropped from March 2013 though. If BA links up with MH or CX, then I'd expect the onward options from SIN to be dropped as direct codeshares. I'd be surprised if QF was still codesharing with BA on flights to LHR from Asian ports after October 2013, and just codesharing on flights from LHR that partner EK doesn't cover.

Don't agree Qantas remains the key Oneworld partner in the region and they have indicated they intend to remain so !

They have no intention of abandoning the Oneworld club.

Cathay show little appetite for offering timed onward connections for BA ticket holders into Australia and just looking at the numbers - few passenger seem to choose routing over Hong Kong when offered on a single through flight !

Even if BA transfer BA15 over KUL the number of onward connections pales compared to Qantas/Jetstar out of Singapore and Sydney !

The status quo remains the best option for BA.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-12-28 14:01:28 and read 8909 times.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 24):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9):
The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties.

So when are BA going to stop flying to the US then?

Stop flying to the USA ? Really?

BA could fly 3 daily flights to any US east coast city with the 3 77W Sydney will need. And the USA is BA's most profitable route, No Emirates, Cathay, Singapore or ANA to worry about. But hey if tink BA should stop flying to the USA I would to see how many folks you can convince ?

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: tonystan
Posted 2012-12-28 14:13:55 and read 8835 times.

This arguement that BA will maintain routes for prestige is unrealistic in this day and age.

I'm sure if a suitable partner came along BA would happily pull the route and better utilise its aircraft and crew. However at present Oz is still a pretty important market for BA and one which they wish to maintain a slice of. As soon as those days are no more I'm sure BA will drop it as quickly as they did every other route on its network which was unprofitable. The days of BA "flying the flag" are over its just another European based carrier looking to serve profitable markets!!!!

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: IADCA
Posted 2012-12-28 14:32:24 and read 8753 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 40):
Stop flying to the USA ? Really?

BA could fly 3 daily flights to any US east coast city with the 3 77W Sydney will need. And the USA is BA's most profitable route, No Emirates, Cathay, Singapore or ANA to worry about. But hey if tink BA should stop flying to the USA I would to see how many folks you can convince ?

I believe the post you responded to was a sarcastic response to the notion that a change in Australia's relationship with the British monarchy might affect air service between the countries. It was meant to point out, sarcastically, that the US cut ties with the UK a couple centuries ago and BA still deigns to fly there. I don't think it was meant as an actual commentary on the utilization rates of 777s. I'm wondering if I can use a few more words to explain this concept, but I don't think so, so cheers.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: FlyCaledonian
Posted 2012-12-28 15:17:34 and read 8663 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 39):
Don't agree Qantas remains the key Oneworld partner in the region and they have indicated they intend to remain so !

They have no intention of abandoning the Oneworld club.

Cathay show little appetite for offering timed onward connections for BA ticket holders into Australia and just looking at the numbers - few passenger seem to choose routing over Hong Kong when offered on a single through flight !

Even if BA transfer BA15 over KUL the number of onward connections pales compared to Qantas/Jetstar out of Singapore and Sydney !

Sorry, but at no point did I talk about QF leaving oneworld. What I was saying was that the BA/QF relationship is already being downsized when the JSA ends in March 2013. When the QF/EK tie-up was announced BA said it was going to explore its own options to replace the JSA, as Willie Walsh is quoted in the Daily Telegraph (among other places) on 07 October, "Asia has become a key market focus for IAG and we're talking to a number of airlines about alternative options for us." That same article talks about how IAG wants to find a "strategic" partner for BA, which implies that BA is looking at a new partner (or partners) to develop deeper links with, likely more than a simple codeshare.

As i said in my post you quoted, BA will keep codeshares with QF beyond SYD (and maybe other Australian ports), but some are already getting cut from March 2013. When a new partnership is unveiled it wouldn't surprise to see further cuts in the codeshares, but a number will remain. Just like QF will keep codeshares on a number of BA flights beyond LHR (But these are being reduced as the EK codeshares kick in).

The QF/BA relationship is going to be a lot looser in future. The key relationship for QF longhaul going West is with EK. BA will find its own strategic partner in Asia. The JSA served both carriers well (hell, remember the short-lived merger talk?) but things are moving on. QF has a role to play in oneworld with BA, but once BA gets its own deal (that is right for BA) lined up, it will likely be a lot less than what is going to be in place come March 2013.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: gemuser
Posted 2012-12-28 15:33:07 and read 8634 times.

Quoting nclmedic (Reply 35):
the likely future picture looks like they will pull out of the UK all together and simply codeshare. This is in addition to QF actually making noises near enough to this effect from their own press office....

While I have long learned that the rule in aviation is "never say never", this one is waaaay out there! It is MOST unlikely to happen, the political repercussions in Australia alone would make even AJ think twice, then go and have a nice cuppa tea and a lie down.

What have you seen from the QF press office that even hints at this? I recall nothing, gotta link?

Gemuser

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: qf002
Posted 2012-12-28 22:46:15 and read 8345 times.

QF will not hesitate to withdraw from LHR if they can't make money there. They proved with SFO that prestige isn't enough to save a route these days, so I don't doubt that it would happen if it was the right thing to do.

That doesn't mean that I think it's a very likely scenario. In fact I think it's extremely unlikely. I suppose it's realistically possible that they might drop a flight to open up something else in Europe (or to continue FRA through DXB, perhaps), but they won't be leaving LHR any time soon. If they weren't confident in the route then they'd have dropped them by now.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: EK413
Posted 2012-12-28 23:35:12 and read 8289 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 45):

The QF services will more than likely compliment the 5 x daily EK A380 services so I doubt QF plan on packing their bags so soon but as you said prestige isn't enough...

EK413

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rogercamel
Posted 2012-12-28 23:44:19 and read 8311 times.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 33):
I think it is a very brave move for BA to be tying 3 premium-heavy 77W's on the LHR-SYD run next summer when these aircraft can surely be used more profitably elsewhere.

I reckon the LHR-SIN is a seriously profitable route; from my experience flying it the loads are pretty high (I tried to book flights on SQ for early Jan - Y was sold out from 2nd-10th Jan even in November) and it certainly isn't cheap on SQ, BA or QF! The premium on flying direct over a stopover in the mid-east is usually >30%.

And BA, having shared just about everything with QF on the route is in an ideal position to judge the impact of QF pulling out.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: VCy
Posted 2012-12-28 23:51:09 and read 8306 times.

Does anyone know the actual loads on the BA flight to SYD? And does anyone have any info on how VS is performing the route? (just out of curiosity)

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2012-12-29 06:20:32 and read 7926 times.

My VS200 on Christmas Eve was full to HKG with barely anyone transiting on to SYD.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: lxa333
Posted 2012-12-29 06:38:45 and read 7867 times.

In terms of profitability, it would make sense for BA to pull out completely of Australia, regardless of prestige. Europeans carriers have let themselves down vs Middle Eastern/Asian-Oceanic air carriers with the exception of a few like LH/LX, a lot of business was lost to EK throughout these past few years. It is time to pull out completely I would say and rely solely on the eastern seaboard of the US for Long-Haul with those new aircraft. Those 777-300er's on a JFK/EWR redeye would kill competition as it is. Simply put EK/QF are too good for BA to compete on routes to that area of the world. Long-term plan would be to drop out of Oneworld and join *A IMO.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-12-29 07:17:48 and read 7798 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 45):
QF will not hesitate to withdraw from LHR if they can't make money there. They proved with SFO that prestige isn't enough to save a route these days, so I don't doubt that it would happen if it was the right thing to do

Qantas leaving SFO to concentrate at LAX is very different then leaving LHR. IF QF stopped flying to LHR they wouldn't replace it, they would be leaving London, the UK and probably anything west of Dubai. London is far more impaortant to Qantas and the Asutralian economy then Sydney is to BA and Virgin Atlantic. What I don't understand is why BA or Qantas don't fly Perth to LHR which is doable nonstop, its 15 or 16 hours but nonstop.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: cloudyapple
Posted 2012-12-29 11:06:03 and read 7548 times.

BA can copy QF and tie up with EK to serve SYD via DXB and open up all the ports to the east of Dubai on codeshares with EK!

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2012-12-29 16:10:11 and read 7250 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9):
The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties.

What? BA flying to Oz and the potential cutting of such a service has nothing to do with 'royal ties'. yours was the most ridiculous post that I have ever read from a 'first class' member to this forum.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2012-12-29 16:16:54 and read 7247 times.

Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 52):
BA can copy QF and tie up with EK to serve SYD via DXB and open up all the ports to the east of Dubai on codeshares with EK!

Why would BA want to do a deal with Emirates for China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Malaysia and Thailand ? BA fills the 777 & 744 and makes $$$ to those destinations. Sydney for BA could be done with Malaysia or Qatar, EK is strictly a Qantas deal. Qatar offers UK passengers one stops over Doha to BA passengers from many non-LHR UK cities.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: LX138
Posted 2012-12-30 14:39:55 and read 6692 times.

Quoting lxa333 (Reply 50):
In terms of profitability, it would make sense for BA to pull out completely of Australia, regardless of prestige. Europeans carriers have let themselves down vs Middle Eastern/Asian-Oceanic air carriers with the exception of a few like LH/LX, a lot of business was lost to EK throughout these past few years. It is time to pull out completely I would say and rely solely on the eastern seaboard of the US for Long-Haul with those new aircraft. Those 777-300er's on a JFK/EWR redeye would kill competition as it is. Simply put EK/QF are too good for BA to compete on routes to that area of the world. Long-term plan would be to drop out of Oneworld and join *A IMO.

What do you mean? How have European carriers 'let themselves down'?? Obviously they are flying from a different part of the world than the ME carrries aren't they? LH/LX don't even fly to Aus either so not sure what you meant there.

And who should join star? Tell you what, DL should definitely join star too, it would be soooo much better for them.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: deconz
Posted 2012-12-30 15:07:59 and read 6638 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 49):
My VS200 on Christmas Eve was full to HKG with barely anyone transiting on to SYD.

That's not a major surprise - with both legs overnight those SYD pax would arrive on Boxing Day. I'd suspect many of those who wished to travel "downunder" at that time of the year would like to arrive on or before Chrismas Day!!!

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: BCA2005
Posted 2012-12-31 11:53:46 and read 6122 times.

Slightly related to this topic, it has been confirmed that with the termination of the JSA with QF, BA is moving Singapore and Sydney services to LHR Terminal 5. Are there any plans to move BKK too, as it will remain as the only longhaul route not operating from Terminal 5?

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: EK413
Posted 2013-01-01 03:23:22 and read 5708 times.

It would seem BA have had KUL on the radar since 2007 based on an article I've come across...

British Airways to discuss reinstating flights to Malaysia

Wednesday September 26, 2007

STOCKHOLM: Officials of Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) and British Airways (BA) will meet in a couple of months to continue discussions on BA reinstating flights to Malaysia.

MAHB managing director Datuk Seri Bashir Ahmad, who met with BA CEO Willie Walsh at the 13th World Route Development Forum here, said: “There is certainly an interest to return but right now, they are looking at figures and forecasts to ensure that when they do operate, the service will be viable and sustainable for the long term.”

“No date (to commence flights) has been fixed as it depends on the viability of the operations and the availability of aircraft,” he said, adding that it was purely a business decision.

“Every time we talk, the picture becomes clearer. We appreciate their willingness to talk to us openly and to share their views on this matter,” he said.

BA was being cautious because it did not want to have to pull out again. “Once they come in, they want to stay,” Bashir said.


http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=141&page=31

Excuse the length of the article I've included the source...

EK413

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: flylonghaul
Posted 2013-01-01 06:02:44 and read 5419 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 48):
Does anyone know the actual loads on the BA flight to SYD?

From my last 10 flights on this route QF1/2 and QF31/32 before it changed and BA15/16 the average would have been in the high 90's
When I enquired about the load last June on BA15 I was told it was 100% full that day, I switched to QF1 in SIN and it was also packed to the rafters.BA16 on my return was 100% full to SIN where I switched to QF after a stopover.
Checking availability on BA15/16 for my trip next year and 6 months out on the days that I checked, I found there were already quite a few F, J and W bookings with seating already allocated.
Obviously I am aware my experiences only give a small view, and don't tell us anything of the all important yields.

With business ties between the UK and Australia being so strong surely there must be a lot of corporate contracts that BA has in place that will help ensure the routes survival. And the equipment change puts BA on a somewhat more level playing field against the competition.
Good to see BA really giving the route a fighting chance.

The day this flight stops will be a sad day for us spotters in SYD

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: sydaircargo
Posted 2013-01-01 15:28:50 and read 4977 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 6):
think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

thats what BA SYD said to me the other day too.

as long as VS flys to SYD , BA will too.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: warden145
Posted 2013-01-01 16:36:39 and read 4833 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 45):
They proved with SFO that prestige isn't enough to save a route these days
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 51):
Qantas leaving SFO to concentrate at LAX

I was under the impression that QF was making money on the SFO flight but pulled it because they needed the aircraft for their DFW flight? SFO was dropped right as DFW began.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: flylonghaul
Posted 2013-01-01 17:57:06 and read 4675 times.

Quoting warden145 (Reply 61):

That was my understanding also.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-01 18:10:54 and read 4662 times.

While there is certainly an element of prestige involved with LHR-SYD, the route would not hold with three carriers operating their own metal all the way were it not profitable. It's that simple.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: QFVHOQA
Posted 2013-01-01 18:16:05 and read 4668 times.

Quoting VCy (Reply 48):

Does anyone know the actual loads on the BA flight to SYD? And does anyone have any info on how VS is performing the route? (just out of curiosity)

According to Australian government statistics, in the year ending June 2012 BA had a LF of 85.4% for inbound services & 77.3% outbound services. This would include BA9/10 via BKK as this was only shortened in March 2012.
Link:Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: qf002
Posted 2013-01-01 23:26:21 and read 4462 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 51):
Qantas leaving SFO to concentrate at LAX is very different then leaving LHR. IF QF stopped flying to LHR they wouldn't replace it, they would be leaving London, the UK and probably anything west of Dubai. London is far more impaortant to Qantas and the Asutralian economy then Sydney is to BA and Virgin Atlantic. What I don't understand is why BA or Qantas don't fly Perth to LHR which is doable nonstop, its 15 or 16 hours but nonstop.

PER-LHR is not a profitable proposition.

Quoting deconz (Reply 56):
That's not a major surprise - with both legs overnight those SYD pax would arrive on Boxing Day. I'd suspect many of those who wished to travel "downunder" at that time of the year would like to arrive on or before Chrismas Day!!!

VS generally has very low fares on the local HKG-SYD extension anyway, so I doubt this was just because of Christmas. They continue to say that their services here are profitable, but I'm left wondering if it's HKG that's profitable and SYD is just breaking even (and not worth dropping). It wouldn't be a total shock to see them drop SYD down the track (perhaps in cooperation with new VA services to HKG), but not for a few years.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 63):
While there is certainly an element of prestige involved with LHR-SYD, the route would not hold with three carriers operating their own metal all the way were it not profitable. It's that simple.

Because of the JV, QF and BA were effectively the same airline. So really we are moving from two airlines on the direct route (QF/BA and VS) to three (QF/EK, BA and VS).

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: SKAirbus
Posted 2013-01-02 03:07:27 and read 4247 times.

I suspect that the LHR-SIN-SYD route will be "downgraded" to a 77E eventually... The 77W is too much plane for the route (with respect to premium versus economy seating). Another option could be to configure a few high density Y 744s for the route but this will render the aircraft useless to other destinations.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-02 03:25:40 and read 4243 times.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 66):
I suspect that the LHR-SIN-SYD route will be "downgraded" to a 77E eventually... The 77W is too much plane for the route (with respect to premium versus economy seating). Another option could be to configure a few high density Y 744s for the route but this will render the aircraft useless to other destinations.

You do know the whole point of putting the B77W on the route is to achieve the opposite of this? Indeed BA015 / 016 has only recently returned from being a B777-236ER to the larger B747-436.

[Edited 2013-01-02 03:26:45]

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2013-01-02 04:25:31 and read 4166 times.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 66):
I suspect that the LHR-SIN-SYD route will be "downgraded" to a 77E eventually... The 77W is too much plane for the route (with respect to premium versus economy seating). Another option could be to configure a few high density Y 744s for the route but this will render the aircraft useless to other destinations.

That exactly the point BA want to up lift overall yield to strengthen to viability of the route without the need to allocate capacity to a partner
Effectively they have striped out the QF sold low margin capacity

As previously stated

The 77W is F14 J56 W44 Y186 =300 - A reduction in non profit tourist (Those price sensitive will surely drift to MEB3/QF or over other far east carrier ) yet 8 extra tourist plus but virtually no difference up front.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: boysteve
Posted 2013-01-02 15:29:44 and read 3770 times.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 66):
I suspect that the LHR-SIN-SYD route will be "downgraded" to a 77E eventually... The 77W is too much plane for the route (with respect to premium versus economy seating). Another option could be to configure a few high density Y 744s for the route but this will render the aircraft useless to other destinations.

This does not sound like a usual BA policy, I thought that they would select which ever aircraft type had the correct number of premium seats (yield wise) and then adjust Y pricing to fill/limit demand with whatever is left! And surely they have played this card when they just selected the B77W!

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: malaysia
Posted 2013-01-02 16:17:35 and read 3685 times.

Just curious, I am planning to try to fly Non-Rev SIN-LHR on this route in the middle of this month on either QF or BA, they have 4 flights a day at the end of January. I wondered if its really a PITA to try. I do have alternatives, but I want to try to take the QF A388 out with the BA 744 as a back up. wonder how the avg loads are before this JV is gone? I hear BA is full often, but how about QF with 2 daily A388?

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: FlyboyOz
Posted 2013-01-02 16:50:31 and read 3609 times.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 65):
VS generally has very low fares on the local HKG-SYD extension anyway, so I doubt this was just because of Christmas. They continue to say that their services here are profitable, but I'm left wondering if it's HKG that's profitable and SYD is just breaking even (and not worth dropping). It wouldn't be a total shock to see them drop SYD down the track (perhaps in cooperation with new VA services to HKG), but not for a few years.

Disagree... SQ and some other asian airlines airfare is somewhat a little cheaper than VS. I still prefer to fly with Asian Airlines to fly anywhere in Asia.

Last time i checked the airfare between SYD and HKG on christmas weeks. VS - $1700 whereas SQ - $1300 (including A380 and stopover in SIN).

Of course BA will not terminate the Kangaroo routes cos of VS. If BA would terminate that route, then VS airfare to Australia will be higher.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: nrt1011
Posted 2013-01-02 19:29:06 and read 3481 times.

If you are flying SIN-LHR, why would you not fly Singapore Airlines? BA and QF are a very distant 2nd to a far superior Asian carrier.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: QFVHOQA
Posted 2013-01-02 20:07:32 and read 3418 times.

Quoting nrt1011 (Reply 72):

If you are flying SIN-LHR, why would you not fly Singapore Airlines? BA and QF are a very distant 2nd to a far superior Asian carrier.

Alliance may also come into consideration. Oneworld frequent flyers may choose BA/QF to boost status / points earn. Also if you want to fly Y+, SQ do not offer this class.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: nrt1011
Posted 2013-01-02 21:17:46 and read 3347 times.

Yes good point, I am a Star Alliance member and always want to fly them. I certainly understand the Y+, thanks.

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: LO231
Posted 2013-01-02 21:34:26 and read 3312 times.

Give it to Star Alliance. SQ UA LH will cover it. Mho

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: deconz
Posted 2013-01-02 21:39:54 and read 3300 times.

Quoting nrt1011 (Reply 72):
If you are flying SIN-LHR, why would you not fly Singapore Airlines? BA and QF are a very distant 2nd to a far superior Asian carrier.

The OP stated he/she wanted to non-rev. Depending on his/her employer, SQ might not be a realistic option in this case. However, I fully appreciate the sentiment as SQ offer a very good quality Y experience on this route!

Topic: RE: BA On The Kangaroo Route. What Next?
Username: LO231
Posted 2013-01-02 21:48:33 and read 3275 times.

Quoting deconz (Reply 76):

My thoughts exactly. Jeez, I am quoting MammaMia


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