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Topic: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-12-28 07:44:24 and read 11416 times.

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

7V VIR-ULD JAN 0.7>0.5

AA DFW-AEX APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AA DFW-ATL APR 11>10 MAY 11>10
AA DFW-AUS APR 15>14 MAY 15>14
AA DFW-BOS APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
AA DFW-BTR APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
AA DFW-BZE APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1
AA DFW-CRP APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
AA DFW-CUN APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5
AA DFW-GDL MAY 4>3
AA DFW-GPT APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AA DFW-GRK MAY 10>9
AA DFW-GRR APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AA DFW-GUA APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1
AA DFW-IAD APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
AA DFW-IAH APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
AA DFW-LAS APR 12>11 MAY 12>11
AA DFW-MAF APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
AA DFW-MFE APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
AA DFW-MSN APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AA DFW-MSY APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
MZT's new airline impact?
*AA DFW-MZT APR 1.0>0.3 MAY 1.0>0.3 JUN 1.0>0.7
AA DFW-PVR APR 1.2>1.3 MAY 1.1>1.3
AA DFW-RSW MAY 2>3
AA DFW-SAL APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.6
AA DFW-SEA MAY 7>8
*AA DFW-SJD APR 2>4 MAY 2>4 JUN 2>3
AA DFW-SLC APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
AA DFW-TRC APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.6
AA DFW-TYS APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
AA DFW-VER APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7
AA DFW-VPS APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
AA DFW-XNA APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
AA FLL-PAP APR 2>1.7 MAY 2>1.7 JUN 2>1.9
AA JFK-CUN APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>1.4
B6 must love this
*AA JFK-FLL APR 2>0.1 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>1.3
AA JFK-GRU APR 2>1.3 MAY 2>1.3 JUN 2>1.8
Hmm...interesting
**AA JFK-IAH APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA JFK-LAS APR 1.0>2.0 MAY 1.0>2
AA JFK-LHR APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
AA JFK-SFO APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
*AA JFK-SJO APR 1.0>0.0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.6
AA JFK-SJU MAY 4>3
*AA JFK-SXM APR 1.0>0.0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.6
AA LAX-DFW APR 19>18 MAY 19>18
AA LAX-ELP APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3
AA LAX-FLL APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7
AA LAX-LIH APR 1.6>1.7 MAY 1.6>1.7
AA LAX-MRY APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
AA LAX-OKC APR 2>3 MAY 2>3
*AA LAX-RDU APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA LAX-SBA APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
AA LAX-SJD APR 1.0>1.8 MAY 1.0>1.8 JUN 1.0>1.3
AA LAX-SLC APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
AA LAX-YYZ APR 1.0>2.0 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>1.4
AA LGA-STL APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
AA MIA-BSB APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7
AA MIA-BZE APR 2>1.8 MAY 2>1.8
AA MIA-CNF APR 1.0>0.5 MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.8
AA MIA-CUN APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6
AA MIA-ELH APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1
*AA MIA-FDF APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
AA MIA-GGT APR 1.0>1.2 MAY 1.0>1.1
AA MIA-GYE APR 1.4>2 MAY 1.4>2 JUN 1.4>2 JUL 1.4>2 AUG 1.5>2
AA MIA-MHH APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1
AA MIA-MSY APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AA MIA-PAP APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4
AA MIA-PHX APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
*AA MIA-PTP APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
AA MIA-PUJ MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3
AA MIA-SDQ MAY 4>3
AA MIA-SJO MAY 4>3
AA MIA-SJU MAY 8>7
AA MIA-TLH APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
AA ORD-BNA APR 8>9 MAY 8>9
AA ORD-BOS APR 9>10 MAY 9>10
AA ORD-CLT APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
AA ORD-CMH APR 11>10 MAY 11>10
AA ORD-DFW APR 16>18 MAY 16>18
AA ORD-DSM APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
AA ORD-LAX APR 11>10 MAY 11>10
AA ORD-LIT APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
AA ORD-MCI APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
AA ORD-PHX APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
AA ORD-RDU MAY 5>4
AA ORD-RIC APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
AA ORD-ROC APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
AA ORD-RSW APR 3>4 MAY 2>4
AA ORD-SAT APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
AA ORD-SDF APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
AA ORD-SEA APR 4>6 MAY 4>6 JUN 4>5
*AA ORD-SJD APR 0.0>0.2 MAY 0>0.1
AA ORD-SYR APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
AA ORD-TUL APR 4>5 MAY 4>5

AC ALB-YYZ FEB 1.7>1.4
AC CVG-YYZ FEB 1.7>1.6
AC GRR-YYZ FEB 1.7>1.4
AC IAH-YYZ FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3
AC IND-YYZ FEB 1.9>1.8
AC MDT-YYZ FEB 1.9>1.7
AC PBI-YYZ FEB 1.8>1.6
AC PVD-YYZ FEB 1.6>1.4
AC RIC-YYZ FEB 1.7>1.6

In/out/in/out
*AM ATL-MEX FEB 1.0>0.9 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
AM ATL-TLC FEB 0>0.1
AM DEN-MEX FEB 0.4>0.5
AM FAT-GDL JAN 0.4>0.7 FEB 0.3>0.4
AM JFK-MEX FEB 5>4
AM LAS-MEX FEB 3>1.9
AM LAX-BJX FEB 0.5>0
AM ONT-GDL FEB 0.9>0.6
AM ORD-GDL FEB 0.5>0.3
AM SAT-MTY FEB 0.6>1.0
AM SMF-GDL FEB 0.5>0.7

DL response?
*AS SEA-LAX MAY 11>12 JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13 AUG 12>13

BA MIA-LHR APR 3>2 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2

BB SJU-STT JAN 4>1.7 FEB 4>1.7 MAR 4>3 APR 5>4 MAY 5>3
BB SJU-STX JAN 4>3 FEB 6>4 MAR 5>3 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
BB SJU-VQS FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.5>0.4 MAY 0.6>0.5 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.5>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.5
BB STT-SJU JAN 4>1.6 FEB 5>3 MAR 5>3 APR 6>4 MAY 6>4 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
BB STT-STX FEB 4>3 MAR 4>1.5 APR 4>1.4 MAY 3>1.3 JUN 2>0.3 JUL 2>0.3 AUG 2>0.3
BB STX-SJU JAN 3>2.0 FEB 6>4 MAR 7>5 APR 8>5 MAY 8>5
BB VQS-SJU FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.5>0.4 MAY 0.6>0.5 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.5>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.5

CA IAH-PEK JUL 0>0.5 AUG 0>0.5
CA JFK-PEK APR 1.0>1.6 MAY 1.0>1.6 JUN 1.0>1.6 JUL 1.0>1.6 AUG 1.0>1.5

DE FLL-FRA JUL 0.3>0.6 AUG 0.3>0.5

DL ATL-BTR APR 9>10 MAY 9>10 JUN 9>10 JUL 9>10 AUG 8>9
DL ATL-BWI MAY 11>12
DL ATL-CHS APR 10>12 MAY 10>12
DL ATL-ECP APR 7>8 MAY 7>8
DL ATL-GPT APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
DL ATL-LIT APR 6>7
DL ATL-MXP AUG 1.0>0.4
DL ATL-SAV MAY 10>11
DL ATL-VCE AUG 0.9>0.5
DL ATL-VPS APR 10>11 MAY 9>11
DL CLE-MSP APR 4>5
DL CVG-LAS MAR 0.7>0.5
DL DTW-ITH APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.8>3
DL DTW-MKE JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7
DL GUM-KIX JUL 1.4>1.1
DL GUM-NRT AUG 4>5
DL JFK-ATH MAY 0.5>0
DL JFK-DUB JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.4
DL JFK-MEX JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0
DL JFK-YYZ FEB 1.9>2 MAR 1.7>1.9
*DL LAX-SEA APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
DL LAX-SFO MAY 12>11 JUN 12>11 JUL 12>11 AUG 12>11
DL LGA-CLE MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
DL LGA-FLL MAY 6>5 JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL LGA-PWM MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
DL LGA-YHZ JUN 2>3 JUL 2.0>3 AUG 2>3
DL MIA-LGA APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
DL MOT-MSP APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
DL MSP-PHL MAY 5>4
DL SLC-BIL JUL 6>5 AUG 5>4
DL SLC-DEN MAY 8>7
DL SLC-YVR FEB 1.6>1.5

Looks like COS is about finished with
*F9 COS-LAX MAY 0.7>0.1 JUN 0.8>0.3 JUL 0.3>0.1
*F9 COS-PHX MAR 0.8>0.6 APR 0.7>0.3 MAY 0.8>0.3 JUN 1.0>0.3 JUL 0.3>0.1
*F9 COS-SAN MAR 0.7>0
F9 DEN-CID JUN 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-LAX MAR 5>4 APR 5>4
F9 DEN-PHX MAR 5>6
*F9 ORD-HUX FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.2 APR 0>0.1
F9 PHL-CUN FEB 0.5>0.4 MAR 0.6>0.5
*F9 STL-HUX FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.2 MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.1

FJ LAX-NAN JUL 0.5>0.9 AUG 0.6>0.8

HA LAX-OGG JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>1.3

HY JFK-RIX APR 0.1>0.3 MAY 0.1>0.3

K5 AHN-BNA JAN 1.7>3 FEB 1.7>3 MAR 1.7>3 APR 1.7>3 MAY 1.7>3 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3
K5 MEM-MKL JAN 0.9>1.7 FEB 1.0>1.7 MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>1.7 JUL 1.0>1.7 AUG 1.0>1.7
K5 PDT-PDX JAN 1.7>4 FEB 1.7>4 MAR 1.7>4 APR 1.7>4 MAY 1.7>4 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.7>4 AUG 1.7>4

KX TPA-GCM JAN 0.3>0.7 FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0.5>0.7

LA MIA-LIM APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.5 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.5 AUG 0.3>0.4

OZ SPN-ICN JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3 MAR 2>3
OZ SPN-NRT JAN 0.0>0.2

QF DFW-BNE APR 1.0>0.9 MAY 1.0>0.8

SY LAS-MSP JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

TA DFW-SAL FEB 1.0>0.8
TA MIA-GUA FEB 1.0>0.9
TA MIA-SAP FEB 1.0>0.9
TA MIA-TGU FEB 1.0>0.7

TJ SJU-SBH JUN 0.9>1.3 JUL 0.9>1.2 AUG 0.8>1.3
TJ STT-SBH JAN 1.0>0.9

*UA DEN-SAF MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
*UA DEN-YMM JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
UA EWR-ANU JUN 0.5>0.3
UA EWR-BTV MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4
UA EWR-DSM MAY 0.9>1.9 JUN 1.0>2.0 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
UA EWR-FLL JUN 7>6
UA EWR-GSP MAY 1.8>3
UA EWR-MCI MAY 4>5
UA EWR-MHT JUN 4>3
UA EWR-MSP MAY 5>6
UA EWR-OMA MAY 1.7>3
UA EWR-ORF MAY 4>5
UA EWR-PBI MAY 5>4 JUN 6>4
UA EWR-PHL MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA EWR-PVD MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3
UA EWR-PWM MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4
UA EWR-SNA MAY 1.8>3
UA EWR-TPA JUN 6>5
*UA EWR-YEG MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.8
UA EWR-YHZ MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4
UA EYW-TPA JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA FLL-BIM MAY 0.9>1.0 JUN 0.9>1.7 JUL 0.8>1.7 AUG 0.9>1.4
UA FLL-ELH FEB 1.0>1.1 MAR 1.0>1.5 APR 1.0>1.6 MAY 1.0>1.6 JUN 1.0>1.6 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.5
UA FLL-FPO FEB 1.9>1.4 MAR 2>1.1 APR 2>1.1 MAY 2>1.2 JUN 2>1.1 JUL 2>1.1 AUG 2>1.2
UA FLL-GGT MAR 1.0>0.8 APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.8 AUG 1.0>0.7
UA FLL-GHB FEB 0.7>0.9 MAR 0.7>1.0 APR 0.7>1.0 MAY 0.7>1.0 JUN 0.7>1.0 JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>0.5
UA FLL-GNV FEB 0.4>0.2
UA FLL-MHH FEB 1.0>1.5 MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>1.8 MAY 1.0>1.8 JUN 1.0>1.9 JUL 1.0>1.8 AUG 1.0>1.2
UA FLL-TCB MAR 1.0>1.2 APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1 JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.1
UA FLL-TLH MAY 1.7>1.1 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0
*UA IAD-GRR MAY 0>2.0 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
*UA IAD-GUA MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
*UA IAD-SJO MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
UA IAD-SJU JUN 1.0>0.5
*UA IAD-YVR JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3
Posted 2012-12-28 07:45:26 and read 11471 times.

UA IAH-LIR JUN 3>1.8
*UA LAX-ICT MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
UA MCO-MHH FEB 1.0>1.1 MAR 1.0>1.3 APR 1.0>1.3 MAY 1.0>1.3 JUN 1.0>1.3 JUL 1.0>1.3 AUG 1.0>0.8
*UA ORD-FAI JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
*UA ORD-FAI JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
*UA ORD-SJO MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
UA PBI-MHH MAR 1.0>1.2 APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1 JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.1 AUG 1.0>0.7
UA PBI-TPA MAR 1.7>3 APR 1.7>3 MAY 1.7>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3

US PHX-PVR AUG 1.8>1.0

UX JFK-MAD JUL 0.6>1.0 AUG 0.5>1.0

*V2 GPT-PIE JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7

VS MCO-LGW AUG 2>3
VS SFO-LHR APR 1.4>1.0 MAY 1.5>1.0 JUN 1.4>1.0 JUL 1.5>1.0 AUG 1.4>1.0

WN DEN-RDU MAR 1.0>1.7

WP HNL-KOA JAN 0.4>0
WP HNL-LNY JAN 5>4
WP HNL-OGG JAN 4>3
WP KOA-HNL JAN 0.4>0
WP LNY-HNL JAN 7>6
WP OGG-HNL JAN 4>3

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: DLX737200
Posted 2012-12-28 07:51:07 and read 11389 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
UA MCO-MHH FEB 1.0>1.1 MAR 1.0>1.3 APR 1.0>1.3 MAY 1.0>1.3 JUN 1.0>1.3 JUL 1.0>1.3 AUG 1.0>0.8

What is MHH?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: FlyingSicilian
Posted 2012-12-28 07:51:27 and read 11387 times.

Interesting that AA is pulling some MIA BZE capacity and shifting to DFW.

AA is also upping DFW-IAH but cutting one to AUS. Do they always do that in spring?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: STT757
Posted 2012-12-28 07:56:26 and read 11324 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-ATH MAY 0.5>0

So no Athens for 2013?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: MLI717fan
Posted 2012-12-28 07:56:35 and read 11324 times.

Same number of frequencies, so it won't show up on the report, but it should be noted that BMI is getting some DL mainline love. The morning flight switches from a CR9 to DL 957 this spring, which is an A-319. The remaining flights appear to be a CR9 & a CR7. FL pulled BMI-ATL last June, so apparently they are going after the spring break travelers.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: United1
Posted 2012-12-28 07:58:29 and read 11295 times.

Quoting DLX737200 (Reply 2):
What is MHH?

Marsh Harbour, Bahamas

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2012-12-28 08:09:04 and read 11206 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AS SEA-LAX MAY 11>12 JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13 AUG 12>13

Everything is great! Nothing to see here other than DL's tpac hub funded mostly by a carrier they have no control over.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: steex
Posted 2012-12-28 09:48:59 and read 10713 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-ATH MAY 0.5>0
Quoting STT757 (Reply 4):
So no Athens for 2013?

Without looking at the schedules, I would assume that JFK-ATH is still scheduled to operate later in the summer (June/July/August). Since this post only shows it being reduced to zero during May, DL has most likely delayed the start of the route until June.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2012-12-28 10:47:39 and read 10454 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 4):

Start pushed to June.

Quoting steex (Reply 8):

Without looking at the schedules, I would assume that JFK-ATH is still scheduled to operate later in the summer (June/July/August). Since this post only shows it being reduced to zero during May, DL has most likely delayed the start of the route until June.

     

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: evanbu
Posted 2012-12-28 10:49:38 and read 10446 times.

Wow. DSM-EWR goes twice daily? Well I guess that answers any questions on how the service is performing. Very well timed flight for those evening Europe flights.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2012-12-28 11:35:02 and read 10268 times.

Pleasantly surprised to see AA mainline additions in MSY to both DFW and MIA. Seems like they've been stuck on 12 flights a day for ages. I'd love to see them add MSY-LAX at some point. It'd be a good fit with all the entertainment traffic.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: MLI717fan
Posted 2012-12-28 11:58:58 and read 10163 times.

Quoting evanbu (Reply 10):
Wow. DSM-EWR goes twice daily? Well I guess that answers any questions on how the service is performing. Very well timed flight for those evening Europe flights.

I'm not doubting this route's performance, but do you think this could be a preemptive strike to try to hold off WN from trying to fly DSM-east? WN hasn't done much with DSM, and it seems like the other carriers in the market are trying to hold their own.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-12-28 12:36:39 and read 10043 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 4):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-ATH MAY 0.5>0

So no Athens for 2013?
Quoting steex (Reply 8):
Without looking at the schedules, I would assume that JFK-ATH is still scheduled to operate later in the summer (June/July/August). Since this post only shows it being reduced to zero during May, DL has most likely delayed the start of the route until June.

Yes, the start was delayed to June...so far.

Quoting evanbu (Reply 10):
Wow. DSM-EWR goes twice daily? Well I guess that answers any questions on how the service is performing. Very well timed flight for those evening Europe flights.

A nice win for DSM.

Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 12):
I'm not doubting this route's performance, but do you think this could be a preemptive strike to try to hold off WN from trying to fly DSM-east?

I'm usually eager to believe such things, but 1) I don't think that would discourage WN and 2) I don't think it would affect them much at all. It's probably highly local and the domestic connect options would not be big markets for WN.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2012-12-28 12:48:20 and read 9987 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA LAX-OKC APR 2>3 MAY 2>3

Not too shabby.

All flights operated by CR7s. OKC departures are at 0705, 1350, and 1735. Departures from LAX will be at 0845, 1220, and 1800. Really like this schedule.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2012-12-28 13:34:45 and read 9830 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
US PHX-PVR AUG 1.8>1.0

I know it's typically a slow week, so I'm not basing my observation off this one change alone. But is it just me, or does US always seem to have the fewest weekly schedule adjustments in the OAG updates of any legacy carrier? Do they just not fiddle much with the schedule on a regular basis? Is their tactical approach in this regard simply different from the other legacies?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-12-28 13:40:07 and read 9799 times.

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 3):

Interesting that AA is pulling some MIA BZE capacity and shifting to DFW.

Yes, the strength of the BZE market has always been west of the Mississippi. As UA and AA have put capacity into BZE from IAH (on some Saturdays UA runs 4 frequencies) and DFW, the seats are being filled.

You also have DL hammering AA on the east coast and UA now starting to build EWR to BZE. US is also catching the lower yield stuff upstream (like church groups). Pretty much only thing left for AA to hold onto in MIA is FL, VFR to MIA, and Caribbean and European traffic. That is sizable (especially the Caribbean traffic) but it is not enough to fill 2 738s every day.

The cut in frequency will also help them to keep the yields high.......some of the best fares to BZE this year have been through MIA. Fares via IAH or via ATL were much higher on average.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: LONGisland89
Posted 2012-12-28 13:40:50 and read 9800 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 14):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA LAX-OKC APR 2>3 MAY 2>3
Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 14):
Not too shabby.

Agreed, looks like the LAX-OKC route is performing well for Eagle.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-12-28 14:02:18 and read 9705 times.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 15):
I know it's typically a slow week, so I'm not basing my observation off this one change alone. But is it just me, or does US always seem to have the fewest weekly schedule adjustments in the OAG updates of any legacy carrier? Do they just not fiddle much with the schedule on a regular basis? Is their tactical approach in this regard simply different from the other legacies?

If you think this week is slow, wait till next week.

I'm not sure I agree. Keep in mind that US is the smallest of the legacies, so naturally they have fewer changes. US Airways does manage their schedule differently than pretty much everybody else. They tend to have a completely fake schedule selling from about 4-5 months out to 11 months out. Often the bank structure isn't even current in those schedules. If they drop or add a market they will adjust the future schedule, but that's about it. When the schedule cuts from the fake one to the "living" schedule at 4-5 months they do a large change, but it might not be apparent here because the frequencies are usually about the only thing that is accurate in their future schedule. So, in summary, if you are correct, it is probably related to the unusual way they manage their schedule.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-28 15:37:31 and read 9158 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 16):
Yes, the strength of the BZE market has always been west of the Mississippi.

No, it's not. IAH is the largest local market from BZE and DFW the third largest, but all the others are east of the Mississipi sans LAX.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 16):
You also have DL hammering AA on the east coast and UA now starting to build EWR to BZE. US is also catching the lower yield stuff upstream (like church groups). Pretty much only thing left for AA to hold onto in MIA is FL, VFR to MIA, and Caribbean and European traffic. That is sizable (especially the Caribbean traffic) but it is not enough to fill 2 738s every day.

Why do you make stuff up? AA is the marketshare leader in all but three East Coast-BZE markets (ATL, CLT and PHL). It also commands the highest average fare. It's also the marketshare leader in LAXBZE. How exactly are DL and US hammering AA when MIDT data shows that they aren't able to 1) grab marketshare leadership in any large market past it's hubs and 2) grab a higher average fare in any market past its hubs?

UA/CO is strong in BZE -always have been - but DL and US remain weak behind AA/UA.
Quoting yellowtail (Reply 16):
The cut in frequency will also help them to keep the yields high

You do realize this is the same reduction in two weekly flights AA puts on MIABZE almost every fall and winter, right? It's back to twice daily in June.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2012-12-28 17:01:58 and read 8737 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 PHL-CUN FEB 0.5>0.4 MAR 0.6>0.5

Even as a contract I'm surprised F9 continues to operate this flight for Apple from PHL. Airport fees for less than daily ops at PHL can't be cheap. Although this appears to be a seasonal adjustment why not move it to TTN 40 miles to the NNE of PHL where you operate a focus city. Even if they had to shuttle folks between PHL and TTN.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: dbo861
Posted 2012-12-28 17:23:00 and read 8635 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 13):

Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 12):
I'm not doubting this route's performance, but do you think this could be a preemptive strike to try to hold off WN from trying to fly DSM-east?

I'm usually eager to believe such things, but 1) I don't think that would discourage WN and 2) I don't think it would affect them much at all. It's probably highly local and the domestic connect options would not be big markets for WN.

WHOA..watch out Southwest!! United is adding an E145 DSM-EWR.

Kidding aside, I think this is more to feed the evening European push than to preempt WN from adding service to DSM.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-12-28 17:38:46 and read 8567 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-DSM APR 6>7 MAY 6>7

Looks like AA isn't too concerned with the DSM-CHI being oversaturated even with WN running DSM-MDW now. UA has cut back on their mainline though.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Looks like COS is about finished with

Guess I'm not too shocked at this. F9 has been chopping a little at COS on some of the previous schedule changes.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA EWR-DSM MAY 0.9>1.9 JUN 1.0>2.0 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
Quoting evanbu (Reply 10):
Wow. DSM-EWR goes twice daily? Well I guess that answers any questions on how the service is performing. Very well timed flight for those evening Europe flights.
Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 12):
m not doubting this route's performance, but do you think this could be a preemptive strike to try to hold off WN from trying to fly DSM-east? WN hasn't done much with DSM, and it seems like the other carriers in the market are trying to hold their own.
Quoting enilria (Reply 13):
Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 12):I'm not doubting this route's performance, but do you think this could be a preemptive strike to try to hold off WN from trying to fly DSM-east?
I'm usually eager to believe such things, but 1) I don't think that would discourage WN and 2) I don't think it would affect them much at all. It's probably highly local and the domestic connect options would not be big markets for WN.

I would tend to agree. Plus, most of the east coast stuff is well covered from MDW anyway. DL ended DSM-LGA back in September of 2010 and cited poor loads (25% load-factor) as the reason.

A little history on DSM-EWR - it was first started in in July of 2000 as twice daily at the same time as DSM-IAH (also twice daily). The flights however were very poorly timed for a business trip (first departure was 11:30am on DSM-EWR, last return at 3:30pm). The DSM-EWR service ended in October of 2003 and MAH4546 stated it was due to poor loads. The latest round of DSM-EWR service started in May of 2011 (as 1x daily).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: PHX787
Posted 2012-12-28 18:26:23 and read 8337 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA JFK-SXM APR 1.0>0.0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.6

Delayed start because of something with the feds, according to one of my friends. Please confirm.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-PHX MAR 5>6
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 COS-PHX MAR 0.8>0.6 APR 0.7>0.3 MAY 0.8>0.3 JUN 1.0>0.3 JUL 0.3>0.1

Looks like F9 doesn't like COS so much.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2012-12-28 18:37:26 and read 8269 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 23):
Looks like F9 doesn't like COS so much.

I think it is the other way around.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-12-28 18:42:42 and read 8423 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 22):
Guess I'm not too shocked at this. F9 has been chopping a little at COS on some of the previous schedule changes.

Delayed arrival of an incoming aircraft doesn't help. It has a knock-on effect through the system and even affects DEN-CID Saturday service.

Despite what the experts of a.net claim, acquiring (decent) used A319/A320's isn't as easy as it seems, as we see from the Allegiant announcement today, cancelling their incoming 10 x A319's from Cebu.

I'm more confused by this "low frequency filter," which I simply don't understand:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-CID JUN 0.6>0.4

Because of the aircraft issue DEN-CID goes from 4 weekly to 3 weekly in February. So I don't know what "0.6>0.4" means.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: SCL767
Posted 2012-12-28 18:49:55 and read 8342 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LA MIA-LIM APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.5 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.5 AUG 0.3>0.4

LAN Perú operates the LIM-MIA route 17x weekly non-stop.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: iowaman
Posted 2012-12-28 19:07:34 and read 8405 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 25):

Delayed arrival of an incoming aircraft doesn't help.

I'd be interested in listening if you care to elaborate a little more on what the situation is with that.

Quoting mariner (Reply 25):
even affects DEN-CID Saturday service.

It appears it may be affecting DEN-DSM service as well as there will be no Saturday service Feb. 9 - Mar. 23.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-12-28 19:34:38 and read 8289 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 27):
I'd be interested in listening if you care to elaborate a little more on what the situation is with that.

I'm not quite sure what more there is to say - beyond the obvious.

As is fairly well known, several aircraft (E190's and A319's) are leaving Frontier over the next couple of months or so and thus the airline is working with a constrained fleet.

It is intended to bring in some A320''s and the first of these replacements has had - so far - two arrival dates and now a third - if it is the same aircraft. This delay will have an effect on flying and hard decisions have had to be made.

I don't know to what extent this affects COS but I know it has had some effect, just as it affects CID. It also puts a question mark over forward planning.

The same is true for Allegiant, who had 10 x A319 from Cebu Pacific coming in and now, at this late stage, has cancelled the contract. Obviously, this will have a negative effect on the flying schedule and so Allegiant is advancing the arrival of some incoming A320's to try and reduce that effect.

The reasons why, in both cases, are well above my pay scale but it isn't hard to make a moderately educated guess. Frontier has been burnt at least once before by an incoming aircraft that wasn't up to scratch and my first reaction to the Allegiant deal was that Cebu flies 'em hard and rough.

mariner

[Edited 2012-12-28 19:48:03]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-12-29 05:51:10 and read 7260 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 19):
No, it's not. IAH is the largest local market from BZE and DFW the third largest, but all the others are east of the Mississipi sans LAX.
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 19):
No, it's not. IAH is the largest local market from BZE and DFW the third largest, but all the others are east of the Mississipi sans LAX.

That depends on what you define as a local market.

Give me /pm me your email and I will show you where i get my figures. I will send you the official BTB audited arrival figures ...that should settle any debate....give me till the end of January and I can give you 2012 as well.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 19):
but DL and US remain weak behind AA/UA.

US may be weak but they do take away some of AAs MIA traffic. As for DL.....wait till you see 2012 figures.....DL is growing leaps and bounds in Belize. You will even see some 752s popping up on weekends starting in Feb.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 19):
You do realize this is the same reduction in two weekly flights AA puts on MIABZE almost every fall and winter, right? It's back to twice daily in June.

No it is not...with the exception of this year....AA's Sept/Oct schedule is cut more ...if you don't count the day of mysterious "mechanicals" AA has during that period that gets them into trouble with the DGCA in Belize. To cut MIA in April, which is the 3rd busiest month of the year for tourism to Belize (again, I can send you the data if you wish), is not a good sign. YOu may say, "well, easter is early" but when easter is early the tourism season usually runs thru about first week of may.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: brilondon
Posted 2012-12-29 07:11:29 and read 7066 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 25):
Because of the aircraft issue DEN-CID goes from 4 weekly to 3 weekly in February. So I don't know what "0.6>0.4" means.

This is his method for indicating 4 or .6 to 3 or .4 flights per week. When you have a daily flight you get 1.0. He has explained this before when I asked about it, this is how I understood it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-12-29 07:34:26 and read 7015 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 29):
That depends on what you define as a local market.

I would define it as this:

Largest markets to/from BZE:

Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 64 PDEW
Houston: 42 PDEW
Dallas: 40 PDEW
Los Angeles: 34 PDEW
NYC: 33 PDEW
Atlanta: 14 PDEW
Washington DC: 13 PDEW
San Francisco: 13 PDEW

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-12-29 08:31:49 and read 6886 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 31):

Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 64 PDEW
Houston: 42 PDEW
Dallas: 40 PDEW
Los Angeles: 34 PDEW
NYC: 33 PDEW
Atlanta: 14 PDEW
Washington DC: 13 PDEW
San Francisco: 13 PDEW

One must look at data in context

Of that 64 from MIA, 58 are VFR, only 6 are tourism related.
Of that 42 from IAH, 36 are tourism related
of that 40 from DFW, 38 are tourism
of that 33 from NYC, 25 are VFR

Traffic from the west (with the exception of LAX) as a percentage is much more skewed towards tourism. And that is something the BTB shares with the airlines.

Belize is not alone in this regard....destinations such as RTB have the same makeup.....East coast is more VFR, West is more tourism.

Onward.....

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: point2point
Posted 2012-12-29 11:20:19 and read 6719 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 31):
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 64 PDEW
Houston: 42 PDEW
Dallas: 40 PDEW
Los Angeles: 34 PDEW
NYC: 33 PDEW
Atlanta: 14 PDEW
Washington DC: 13 PDEW
San Francisco: 13 PDEW

From the recently released Brooking Institute report on global travel to/from U.S. metropolitan areas,

http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/aviation

below is the yearly and daily (/365) O&D pax info that they have for 2011 from U.S. mrto areas to Belize City with at least 10 pax per day:

Miami/Fort Lauderdale 46,936 129
Houston 31,327 86
Dallas/Fort Worth 28,764 79
Los Angeles metro 24,709 68
New York City metro 24,451 67
Atlanta 10,886 30
San Francisco 10,832 30
Washington DC 10,094 28
Chicago 9,691 27
Denver 8,635 24
Seattle 8,442 23
Boston 7,358 20
Minneapolis/St Paul 5,672 16
Charlotte 5,371 15
Portland OR 4,310 12
Phoenix 3,707 10

Pretty close to the above figures for some of these......


 

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-12-29 13:04:05 and read 6591 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 33):
From the recently released Brooking Institute report on global travel to/from U.S. metropolitan areas,

I don't know how they compile their data but this

167. Belize City, Belize Latin America/Caribbean 34,725 24,451 -29.6%

is wrong.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: point2point
Posted 2012-12-29 13:20:42 and read 6566 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 34):
I don't know how they compile their data but this

167. Belize City, Belize Latin America/Caribbean 34,725 24,451 -29.6%

is wrong.

Hmmmmm...?

Could you please be more specific as to where this is? It is a huge report, and sending this info into my email would be fine, and then we can go from there? But from just a guess here, I would believe that it's saying that air pax traffic from the U.S. into Belize City from 2003 to 2011 has dropped about 30%. Considering the recent economy..... could this be a possibility?

Thanks

 

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-29 14:01:53 and read 6521 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 32):
Belize is not alone in this regard....destinations such as RTB have the same makeup.....East coast is more VFR, West is more tourism.

There is virtually no VFR traffic to Roatan. It is pure tourism from everywhere.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2012-12-29 14:02:49 and read 6505 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 35):
Hmmmmm...?

Could you please be more specific as to where this is? It is a huge report, and sending this info into my email would be fine, and then we can go from there? But from just a guess here, I would believe that it's saying that air pax traffic from the U.S. into Belize City from 2003 to 2011 has dropped about 30%. Considering the recent economy..... could this be a possibility?

Thanks

I PMd you

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2012-12-29 14:23:59 and read 6479 times.

That brookings site was interesting but it called out the Raleigh-Cary MSA and completely left out the Durham-Chapel Hill portion.. And the RDU area is geographically larger than those 2 MSA... So I can only take the readings with a grain of salt...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: point2point
Posted 2012-12-29 15:22:40 and read 6362 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 38):
That brookings site was interesting but it called out the Raleigh-Cary MSA and completely left out the Durham-Chapel Hill portion.. And the RDU area is geographically larger than those 2 MSA... So I can only take the readings with a grain of salt...

There probably are some discrepancies with this. However, it is probably the most complete report of any that I've seen online that gives the pax stats on U.S. ex-boarder travel. So at least for now, I find the data there to be useful when we here on a.netters get into our usual tussles over the usual tussles that we get into.......

All the best.....

 

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2012-12-29 16:07:42 and read 6309 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 32):
Of that 64 from MIA, 58 are VFR, only 6 are tourism related.
Of that 42 from IAH, 36 are tourism related
of that 40 from DFW, 38 are tourism
of that 33 from NYC, 25 are VFR

How can the airline possible measure this?

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 34):
167. Belize City, Belize Latin America/Caribbean 34,725 24,451 -29.6%

You might be misreading it. All its saying is that comparing 2003 and 2011, the traffic in 2011 was 29.6% lower than it was in 2003.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-29 16:24:29 and read 6314 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 38):

That brookings site was interesting but it called out the Raleigh-Cary MSA and completely left out the Durham-Chapel Hill portion.. And the RDU area is geographically larger than those 2 MSA... So I can only take the readings with a grain of salt.

What does it matter what they called it? It's O&D for RDU, regardless if that passenger lives in Raleigh or drove in from Greensboro. Or, if the person flew Southwest from Nashville and bought a separate AA ticket to London, tha person counts as RDU O&D, too.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 34):
Quoting point2point (Reply 33):
From the recently released Brooking Institute report on global travel to/from U.S. metropolitan areas,

I don't know how they compile their data but this

167. Belize City, Belize Latin America/Caribbean 34,725 24,451 -29.6%

is wrong.


It's MIDT data. It's not wrong. The local market between BZE and NYC has shrunk 30% since 2003.

[Edited 2012-12-29 16:27:42]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2012-12-30 04:29:03 and read 5953 times.

What does it matter what it's called? What does it matter what it's CALLED? It matters a great deal. Sorry if y
Ou can't see that. If you look at the DATA, it's basing everything off a population of 770,000 people. I don't know what you think or what you think you know, but the population in the Triangle are is about 1.9ish million.. Maybe a little less. So it makes a great deal. The Durham-Chapel Hill MSA bring in another ~400,000 and the surrounding area bring in another ~600,000ish or so.. That can make a difference when you are trying to get accurate numbers for new service or expanded service! And, if you reviewed the data and got that it was counting more than those 770,000 as O&D for RDU, then you understood it better than I.

I just believe that reporting information should be correct. It may not be that big of a deal to others, but it is a big deal to me.. It melts my butter that they even broke it apart anyway when it didn't make any sense too.. Particularly if they gonna leave other big conglomerates together..

But I digress and get off my high horse...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: Polot
Posted 2012-12-30 06:14:17 and read 5881 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 42):
What does it matter what it's called? What does it matter what it's CALLED? It matters a great deal. Sorry if y
Ou can't see that. If you look at the DATA, it's basing everything off a population of 770,000 people. I don't know what you think or what you think you know, but the population in the Triangle are is about 1.9ish million..

What are you talking about? The Brookings site says nothing about the population of the metro area, it talks about the number of international passengers flying from the airport. It doesn't matter where the person is from in the area, if they are booking an international flight starting (or ending) from RDU they will be counted in the statistics.

[Edited 2012-12-30 06:20:42]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-30 10:24:42 and read 5701 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 42):
What does it matter what it's called? What does it matter what it's CALLED? It matters a great deal. Sorry if y
Ou can't see that. If you look at the DATA, it's basing everything off a population of 770,000 people. I don't know what you think or what you think you know, but the population in the Triangle are is about 1.9ish million.. Maybe a little less. So it makes a great deal. The Durham-Chapel Hill MSA bring in another ~400,000 and the surrounding area bring in another ~600,000ish or so.. That can make a difference when you are trying to get accurate numbers for new service or expanded service! And, if you reviewed the data and got that it was counting more than those 770,000 as O&D for RDU, then you understood it better than I.

Please re-read what I said about the data and you will see how it doesn't matter. There is no data for what zip code somebody lives in. The O&D data is for the airport alone. It counts everybody that uses RDU has origination or termination, even if they live in Durham.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: jetmatt777
Posted 2012-12-30 11:10:19 and read 5638 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 14):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):AA LAX-OKC APR 2>3 MAY 2>3
Not too shabby.

All flights operated by CR7s. OKC departures are at 0705, 1350, and 1735. Departures from LAX will be at 0845, 1220, and 1800. Really like this schedule.
Quoting LONGisland89 (Reply 17):
Agreed, looks like the LAX-OKC route is performing well for Eagle.

I remember when this route was announced with the other 9 routes. This one was starting at 1x daily, and was predicted to be the worst performer by our expert A.netters. Turns out the A.net doom and gloom was wrong once again.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2012-12-30 12:58:40 and read 5567 times.

Hmmm.. Based off Brookings, I guess that RDU does well with its International service.. YYZ, LHR, and CUN seem to be right (although DL could instead do a E170 instead).. But the biggest gap is MEX..

Perhaps DL could get AeroMexico to instead offer daily E170 RDU-CUN/MEX.... I'd be awfully happy with another carrier.. And with DL code share, it can offer some one stops to LGA, BDdpL, CMH, BoS... Just a thought.. RDU needs another carrier.. It's been so long since we added one...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mah4546
Posted 2012-12-30 13:03:28 and read 5560 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 46):
Hmmm.. Based off Brookings,

For what it's worth, this isn't "based on Brookings." All it did was make some 2011 MIDT data available publicly.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-12-30 15:37:28 and read 5456 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 20):
Even as a contract I'm surprised F9 continues to operate this flight for Apple from PHL. Airport fees for less than daily ops at PHL can't be cheap. Although this appears to be a seasonal adjustment why not move it to TTN 40 miles to the NNE of PHL where you operate a focus city. Even if they had to shuttle folks between PHL and TTN.

U5 was there forever. I assume it works as well as it did in those days. They can't move it to TTN because of CBP.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 22):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Looks like COS is about finished with
Guess I'm not too shocked at this. F9 has been chopping a little at COS on some of the previous schedule changes.
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 23):
Looks like F9 doesn't like COS so much.
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 23):
Looks like F9 doesn't like COS so much.
I think it is the other way around.

It'll be interesting to see if MCO survives.

Quoting mariner (Reply 25):
Delayed arrival of an incoming aircraft doesn't help. It has a knock-on effect through the system and even affects DEN-CID Saturday service.
Quoting mariner (Reply 25):
I'm more confused by this "low frequency filter," which I simply don't understand:
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-CID JUN 0.6>0.4
Because of the aircraft issue DEN-CID goes from 4 weekly to 3 weekly in February. So I don't know what "0.6>0.4" means.
Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
Quoting mariner (Reply 25):
Because of the aircraft issue DEN-CID goes from 4 weekly to 3 weekly in February. So I don't know what "0.6>0.4" means.

This is his method for indicating 4 or .6 to 3 or .4 flights per week. When you have a daily flight you get 1.0. He has explained this before when I asked about it, this is how I understood it.

Mariner: You could simply read the FAQ at the top of the page (it's there every week), but since you didn't...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

To be more specific if the flight operates 6 times in a 30 day month it gets a 0.2 (6/30=.2). As I have explained several times, with F9's infrequent schedule coupled with mid-month schedule changes makes them very hard to track. If F9 is only flying 8 times per month and discontinues service on the 22nd of the month then they are going from 8 ops to 6 ops. Some of that stuff is so small it just doesn't meet the minimum change filter. Do you really want to know that ATL-BHM for DL went from 295 operations for July to 293 operations? I don't.

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
As is fairly well known, several aircraft (E190's and A319's) are leaving Frontier over the next couple of months or so and thus the airline is working with a constrained fleet.
Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
It is intended to bring in some A320''s and the first of these replacements has had - so far - two arrival dates and now a third - if it is the same aircraft. This delay will have an effect on flying and hard decisions have had to be made.

You neglect to mention that the A318s (2) are also going away. That question was pointedly asked in the earnings call and the answer was "no decisions have been made regarding replacing the retiring aircraft". They did not say "we cannot find suitable aircraft". To assume the reason is that no aircraft can be purchased (very doubtful) is very wishful thinking. The more likely possibility is that they are more interested in shrinking the airline at the current cost structure inherent with current lease rates (which are cheap relatively). The market for A319s is much tighter than A320s. I was not aware, not have I seen any public comments, that F9 is sourcing A319s. I have stated on this forum that the A320s is too large with their configuration without a DEN hub and it appears DEN will not be a "hub" much longer. It will be a collection of O&D local routes and a few higher frequency markets like LAS/PHX/LAX. That's not enough feed to justify an A320.

Quoting mariner (Reply 28):
The same is true for Allegiant
http://www.globalplanesearch.com/pax/jets/airliners/airbus/a320.htm
http://www.globalplanesearch.com/pax/jets/airliners/airbus/a319.htm

Many more A320s than A319s. There are A318s available if you have a large tube of airplane glue.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-12-30 18:58:20 and read 5309 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
Mariner: You could simply read the FAQ at the top of the page (it's there every week), but since you didn't...

I did read that - several times - and I still don't understand it.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
You neglect to mention that the A318s (2) are also going away.

I didn't see the need to list 'em all in every post - this has been discussed quite a lot in other threads and the departure of the A318's has long been known.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
That question was pointedly asked in the earnings call and the answer was "no decisions have been made regarding replacing the retiring aircraft". They did not say "we cannot find suitable aircraft".
Why would they? The negotiations for at least the first of the replacement A320's were ongoing at that time, as was the search for more.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
I was not aware, not have I seen any public comments, that F9 is sourcing A319s.

I'm not aware that they are either - I not aware that Frontier is considering more A319's. Things can change, of course.

But I guess we read different posts on a.net as to the availability of the types.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
I have stated on this forum that the A320s is too large with their configuration without a DEN hub and it appears DEN will not be a "hub" much longer. It will be a collection of O&D local routes and a few higher frequency markets like LAS/PHX/LAX. That's not enough feed to justify an A320.

I''m aware that you think that, but the last fleet plan I saw was for more A320's (the only change may be the number) and the bulk of the Neo order is for the larger type.

mariner

[Edited 2012-12-30 19:26:18]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-12-30 20:00:38 and read 5225 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
Mariner: You could simply read the FAQ at the top of the page (it's there every week), but since you didn't...
I did read that - several times - and I still don't understand it.

1 flight every day = 1. 1 flight 15 out of 30 days = 0.5. If you don't understand that, as you would say, I shrug.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):

I didn't see the need to list 'em all in every post - this has been discussed quite a lot in other threads and the departure of the A318's has long been known.
Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
That question was pointedly asked in the earnings call and the answer was "no decisions have been made regarding replacing the retiring aircraft". They did not say "we cannot find suitable aircraft".
Why would they? The negotiations for at least the first of the replacement A320's were ongoing at that time, as was the search for more.

Why wouldn't they? If the prices are too high then they would look responsible to say so, the real issue is that they do not want to commit to any aircraft right now. "no decisions have been made" clearly means that.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
I was not aware, not have I seen any public comments, that F9 is sourcing A319s.
I'm not aware that they are either - I not aware that Frontier is considering more A319's. Things can change, of course.
But I guess we read different posts on a.net as to the availability of the types.

I don't think they are, but the A320 is too big for them.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
I have stated on this forum that the A320s is too large with their configuration without a DEN hub and it appears DEN will not be a "hub" much longer. It will be a collection of O&D local routes and a few higher frequency markets like LAS/PHX/LAX. That's not enough feed to justify an A320.

I''m aware that you think that, but the last fleet plan I saw was for more A320's (the only change may be the number) and the bulk of the Neo order is for the larger type.

I know for a fact that their strategy is to move to all local operation at DEN (actually everywhere) and they are already doing that. The size of the A320 in their dense config clearly limits them. Whether they have realized that I don't know, but there are definitely plenty of cheap A320s. That's not subject to debate. There are definitely fewer A319s. There are 4x as many A320s in circulation.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-12-30 20:42:48 and read 5182 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
1 flight every day = 1. 1 flight 15 out of 30 days = 0.5. If you don't understand that, as you would say, I shrug.

Shrug away. I'm still trying to work it out, and using your formula.

But you have told me - several times - that Frontier's schedule posted here can be corrupted by your "low frequency filter" so maybe that's the problem.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
Why wouldn't they? If the prices are too high then they would look responsible to say so, the real issue is that they do not want to commit to any aircraft right now. "no decisions have been made" clearly means that.

At that time, the deal had not then been agreed, nor, consequently, a decision to sign the contract. No decision had been made, other than investigation.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
Whether they have realized that I don't know, but there are definitely plenty of cheap A320s.

There may be. But are they any good - Frontier has been burnt before - and are the terms of the ones that are acceptable?

No one here knows this.

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2012-12-31 08:38:31 and read 4932 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 51):
But you have told me - several times - that Frontier's schedule posted here can be corrupted by your "low frequency filter" so maybe that's the problem.

Corrupted isn't the right word. It's just that some of their changes may not be considered large enough to make the report. It's the same filter for everybody.

Quoting mariner (Reply 51):
There may be. But are they any good - Frontier has been burnt before - and are the terms of the ones that are acceptable?

There are plenty out there. I know B6 extended some A320s from 2013 because the planes have dropped in value so much driving down the lease rates. Let's talk about why there are so many and why they are so cheap. It's because of the NEO. Nobody wants A320s after that as they will be uncompetitive. Theoretically the plane is worth much more until then. I'd assume that you need to take a lengthy lease (7+ years) to get good rates since the NEO isn't here yet. The aircraft owners are really trying to insure some kind of ROI post-NEO.

So, we are back to commitment. 7+ years is a commitment. I suspect that is the issue. BB doesn't want risk at F9 and long leases are risk in his mind. He may also not want to sign a long lease and then sell the company to somebody who hates the decision (optimism that he can sell). The most likely reason, IMHO, is the BB is not confident enough in the future of F9 to take on any new long term commitments. That is almost certainly the issue. He can pay more and get short term leases. We'll see.

Any time you buy used aircraft it is a mess for fleet integration and it's much worse when you buy 1s and 2s from different operators.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2012-12-31 09:10:40 and read 4886 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
Corrupted isn't the right word. It's just that some of their changes may not be considered large enough to make the report. It's the same filter for everybody.

I'd call it corrupt when one of these threads showed Frontier reducing TTN-MCO in March, which simply didn't happen and was not planned to happen.

The COO first mentioned the incoming A320 in a letter to the staff in late November and the forward schedule (presently) shows the A320 fleet count increasing from 16 to 17 in April.

As to your thoughts on what BB thinks, I can only say that they are continuing to make progress payments on the Neo order and anyone who invests in Frontier, in any way, understands that.

Everything else is generalities, not necessarily specific to Frontier. or any airline.

mariner

[Edited 2012-12-31 09:43:05]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: OA412
Posted 2013-01-01 11:40:21 and read 4514 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 19):
Why do you make stuff up? AA is the marketshare leader in all but three East Coast-BZE markets (ATL, CLT and PHL). It also commands the highest average fare. It's also the marketshare leader in LAXBZE. How exactly are DL and US hammering AA when MIDT data shows that they aren't able to 1) grab marketshare leadership in any large market past it's hubs and 2) grab a higher average fare in any market past its hubs?

Once again, you present half the story and pretend that you have all the data and all the facts. What about year over year marketshare gains/losses or average fare gains/losses? You really not to stop pretending that your MIDT data is the be all, end all and that you possess the absolute truth. The data you present is but one piece of a much larger puzzle, the solution to which, you don't have.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-01 11:45:43 and read 4518 times.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 54):
Once again, you present half the story and pretend that you have all the data and all the facts. What about year over year marketshare gains/losses or average fare gains/losses? You really not to stop pretending that your MIDT data is the be all, end all and that you possess the absolute truth. The data you present is but one piece of a much larger puzzle, the solution to which, you don't have.

I presented all the facts. Sorry you don't like the truth.

What do you want to know about gains? AA picked up about three points in BZE-U.S. maketshare in FY11.

MIDT data really is the be all/end all. It accurately shows fares, local market size and market share.

[Edited 2013-01-01 11:48:53]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-01 16:06:57 and read 4333 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 53):
I'd call it corrupt when one of these threads showed Frontier reducing TTN-MCO in March, which simply didn't happen and was not planned to happen.

That's what was published in OAG. End of story. The only thing that can happen is a change can be too small to appear. If it appears it is what is published.

If you don't like it or doubt this report, why are you posting in this thread? Just go somewhere else where the data meets your approval.

Quoting mariner (Reply 53):
I can only say that they are continuing to make progress payments on the Neo order

When did it go from an LOI to an order?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: mariner
Posted 2013-01-01 16:13:21 and read 4313 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
If you don't like it or doubt this report, why are you posting in this thread? Just go somewhere else where the data meets your approval.

it's an open forum and if I see inaccurate information anywhere, I shall try to correct it. It has - to my knowledge - never been corrected here, other than by me.

Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
When did it go from an LOI to an order?

November 2011:

http://www.airlinesanddestinations.c...-order-for-80-a320neo-family-jets/

"Frontier Airlines’ parent Republic Airways Holdings, Inc. has upgraded a previously announced memorandum of understanding (MOU) for 80 Airbus A320neo-family aircraft into a firm order for 60 Airbus A320neos and 20 A319neos."

mariner

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: planespotting
Posted 2013-01-02 11:39:16 and read 3719 times.

NYC-DSM traffic will continue to grow, so it's nice to see that play out with the increase in frequency. Int'l traffic is also growing, so the timing is also very important.

Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 5):
Same number of frequencies, so it won't show up on the report, but it should be noted that BMI is getting some DL mainline love. The morning flight switches from a CR9 to DL 957 this spring, which is an A-319.

Wow - that's impressive. I wonder why it's not an MD-88?

Quoting iowaman (Reply 22):
Looks like AA isn't too concerned with the DSM-CHI being oversaturated even with WN running DSM-MDW now. UA has cut back on their mainline though.

Yes, but it's not quite as drastic as I would have imagined though. I kind of thought UA might just say "You want Southwest Des Moines? Fine - we're turning you into RJ city."

DSM-ORD is hardest hit ... down to one mainline/one E170/four ERJs, but ORD-DSM is two mainline/one E170/three RJs - so it's not really that much of a change from the past year's service on the route. DEN-DSM is two mainline/two RJ, while DSM-DEN is three mainline/two RJ.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: delta747tlv
Posted 2013-01-02 18:22:37 and read 3540 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-DUB JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.4

Very interesting, so thats two 767 departures on mon, wed, and sat for most of the summer. Very nice to see after Summer11 when we only had a daily 757. Apparently the flight was very successful on a 767 this past summer.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-04 07:19:41 and read 3278 times.

OP NOTICE:
Hi. Well, bad news. Once again (3rd time since Jan 2012) there were no reported changes in the OAG database for U.S. markets for the week of Jan 4, 2013. I verified there were changes outside the USA. Obviously, it was a holiday week so I hope that was the only reason. So, there will be no new update this week.

Bye till next week (hopefully)...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: FlyingSicilian
Posted 2013-01-04 07:34:17 and read 3229 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 60):
OP NOTICE:
Hi. Well, bad news. Once again (3rd time since Jan 2012) there were no reported changes in the OAG database for U.S. markets for the week of Jan 4, 2013. I verified there were changes outside the USA. Obviously, it was a holiday week so I hope that was the only reason. So, there will be no new update this week.

Bye till next week (hopefully)...

you need a break 

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 12/28/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-04 08:48:11 and read 3096 times.

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 61):
you need a break 

Thanks, but it hardly helps. I had to do the full process just to be left with zero records of data.  

On another note, F9 will correct their future schedule to reflect their actual fleet this weekend. That probably means some more drops/changes.


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