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Topic: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: 777way
Posted 2013-01-03 07:02:35 and read 15378 times.

JL President says theyre interested in flying to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Cambodia as well as Bangalore and Chennai in India according to this article http://japandailypress.com/japan-air...eloping-asia-for-expansion-1716384

[Edited 2013-01-03 07:06:14]

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-03 09:44:12 and read 14793 times.

Could JL restart NRT-SFO on the 788 and offer connections on SFO-BLR?

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: 9w748capt
Posted 2013-01-03 10:05:40 and read 14668 times.

How bout a new livery too? One with some actual, you know, color?

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-03 10:37:54 and read 14476 times.

Come on, send your 787 to PHX    

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: Kiwinlondon
Posted 2013-01-03 12:48:26 and read 13851 times.

What about AKL? They had a code share arrangement with NZ, however as I understand it NZ have now switched to ANA.

Kiwinlondon

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-03 12:56:14 and read 13704 times.

NRT-AKL could always be a good option for offering connections to LHR, especially with BA and JL being about to cooperate more.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: fly828
Posted 2013-01-03 13:50:26 and read 12980 times.

Part of the reason, JAL is down sharply in their routes to China. They have planned their capacity based on assumption more and more wealthier Chinese tourists would visit Japan in next few years along with business passengers. But now this likelyhood is pretty dim.

Just look at the routes they are expressing interest, most of them will be flown by equipments they usually deploy into China. I don't see this is the sign for any optimistic growth from JL but forced capacity reallocation.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: nrt1011
Posted 2013-01-03 14:31:18 and read 12497 times.

I am not sure JAL has ever been the smartest airline, but Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Cambodia don't seem to be thos potentially heavy-hitter locations. I may be wrong, probably will be but just doesn't feel like a "Wow, brilliant insight"

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-01-03 14:34:28 and read 12452 times.

Is JAL considering more US routes with the 787? They added SAN and BOS. ANA got SJC. What's next for JAL with the AA joint-venture? PHX, PDX, SLC, SEA, MIA, MSP?

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: MDW22L31C
Posted 2013-01-03 15:23:43 and read 11900 times.

Send the 787 to BNA. With Nissan USA HQ in Nashville this would be a perfect fit.

How about NGO-LAX? Toyota USA HQ is 10 miles from LAX.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: treebeard787
Posted 2013-01-03 15:27:31 and read 11860 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 8):
Is JAL considering more US routes with the 787? They added SAN and BOS. ANA got SJC. What's next for JAL with the AA joint-venture? PHX, PDX, SLC, SEA, MIA, MSP?
NRT-MSP on JAL will probably never happen, not with DL having a sizable presence on either end, DL also already operates NRT-PDX with a 763 so I highly doubt there is enough traffic for two carriers there. NRT-SLC has been tried already by NW using an A332 and it wasn't successful. NRT-SEA is well served with many daily flights. MIA could be interesting, can the 787 make NRT-MIA non-stop without any weight penalty's? NRT-PHX is unlikely in the short term, even in the event of AA and US merging, the traffic just isn't there to warrant a non-stop at this time.

[Edited 2013-01-03 15:29:45]

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: KaiTak747
Posted 2013-01-03 15:36:28 and read 11728 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 5):

NRT-AKL could always be a good option for offering connections to LHR, especially with BA and JL being about to cooperate more.

I could be wrong... but LHR-NRT-AKL is much longer than via SIN, HKG or others.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: FI642
Posted 2013-01-03 15:38:51 and read 11693 times.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 2):
How bout a new livery too? One with some actual, you know, color?

We all have our priorities!

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: steex
Posted 2013-01-03 15:51:19 and read 11561 times.

Quoting KaiTak747 (Reply 11):
I could be wrong... but LHR-NRT-AKL is much longer than via SIN, HKG or others.
LHR-NRT-AKL is actually shorter, I think you're underestimating how much further east New Zealand is compared to Australia. In fact, going via SIN is even longer than going eastbound from AKL to LHR.

LHR-AKL 9,910nm
LHR-NRT-AKL 9,946nm
LHR-HKG-AKL 10,152nm
LHR-SFO-AKL 10,327nm
LHR-SIN-AKL 10,419nm

[Edited 2013-01-03 15:51:35]

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-03 18:48:44 and read 10318 times.

Tokyo to Toronto, why should Air Canada fly with no competition from NRT to YYZ. NRT to Las Vegas, hey they love Vegas so why not.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: Mikey86
Posted 2013-01-03 19:23:29 and read 10078 times.

Well JAL did mentioned that they would look at re-instating BNE once the 787's join the fleet. I am not sure if they will deploy the 787 or use the 777 (if a/c are free'd up) to operate the route.

Hopefull this comes to fruition  !

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: HOONS90
Posted 2013-01-03 20:11:32 and read 9766 times.

Quoting nrt1011 (Reply 7):

I am not sure JAL has ever been the smartest airline, but Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Cambodia don't seem to be thos potentially heavy-hitter locations. I may be wrong, probably will be but just doesn't feel like a "Wow, brilliant insight"


Myanmar is going through an incredible economic boom lately as a result of new strides in democratization. ANA, Asiana and Korean all recently started flying there. Korean started Yangon in September with 4x weekly 738 service, and as of December capacity has been increased to a daily A333 service. Seats are all sold out till March.

I believe that the A330 is currently the largest anyone can send down there right now.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: ktachiya
Posted 2013-01-03 20:18:39 and read 9717 times.

Quoting MDW22L31C (Reply 9):
How about NGO-LAX? Toyota USA HQ is 10 miles from LAX.

Exactly. I mean why not try and increase routes out of KIX or NGO to destinations that were axed or never flown?

Do they want to be a Japanese airline or the Almost only Tokyo airline like they have been doing for the last decade.

They could restart KIX-LAX, KIX-ORD, or KIX-BNE-SYD and then penetrate into the NGO market. If they keep on concentrating only on Tokyo, yields will continue to go down, they will continue to have a hard time making routes profitable, and if they mega quake reported on the news hits Tokyo, they might lose more than half of their fleet.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: HOONS90
Posted 2013-01-03 20:35:48 and read 9605 times.

Quoting ktachiya (Reply 17):

Exactly. I mean why not try and increase routes out of KIX or NGO to destinations that were axed or never flown?

Do they want to be a Japanese airline or the Almost only Tokyo airline like they have been doing for the last decade.

They could restart KIX-LAX, KIX-ORD, or KIX-BNE-SYD and then penetrate into the NGO market. If they keep on concentrating only on Tokyo, yields will continue to go down, they will continue to have a hard time making routes profitable, and if they mega quake reported on the news hits Tokyo, they might lose more than half of their fleet.


Weren't those routes cut precisely because they were unprofitable? JAL only recently got back on its feet again after cutting out all of that bloat.

As suffocating as NRT is for expansion, I'm not sure if further network fragmentation will serve them well at all. I wouldn't expect new long haul routes out of KIX anytime soon short of some kind of economic renaissance in what is a rather stagnant region.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: allegiantflyer
Posted 2013-01-03 20:37:18 and read 9597 times.

Quoting treebeard787 (Reply 10):
NRT-PHX is unlikely in the short term, even in the event of AA and US merging, the traffic just isn't there to warrant a non-stop at this time.

so 40 Million passengers isn't enough?

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-03 20:42:53 and read 9553 times.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 19):
so 40 Million passengers isn't enough?

The airport is actively seeking asian service. Last I heard is that the mayor of Phoenix is supposed to go to Tokyo sometime soon to try to attract service.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2013-01-03 20:47:13 and read 9524 times.

Quoting Mikey86 (Reply 15):
Well JAL did mentioned that they would look at re-instating BNE once the 787's join the fleet. I am not sure if they will deploy the 787 or use the 777 (if a/c are free'd up) to operate the route.

Many airlines say that kind of thing, but time will tell. With JQ serving OOL down the road, the need to service BNE with their own metal really doesn't seem to be there for them.

Their priorities seem focused on other areas at present.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: BeachBoy
Posted 2013-01-03 20:58:10 and read 9446 times.

As a Hawaii resident, I hope they consider NRT/KIX-OGG/KOA. I know OGG doesn't have a FIS, but if they show interest I think it may force the issue. Most tourism growth over the past couple of years has been by international arrivals and thus, has primarily been limited to Oahu. With direct international flights to the neighbor islands, hopefully the growth will be more evenly spread.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2013-01-03 21:02:11 and read 9407 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Come on, send your 787 to PHX

It will happen since PHX is about to become a Oneworld hub.  

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: PM
Posted 2013-01-03 21:16:33 and read 9306 times.

I would love to see direct flights between Japan and Bangalore. I've flown between them several times and there's always a layover in Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangkok or somewhere. I could see a direct flight being successful.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: wedgetail737
Posted 2013-01-03 21:49:38 and read 9343 times.

Quoting treebeard787 (Reply 10):
NRT-SEA is well served with many daily flights.

I wouldn't necessarily call 3X daily SEA-NRT "many" flights...not compared to LAX, SFO and JFK. However, I would be very surprised to JL return to SEA with their 788's...unless someone like UA would leave the market. I think CX on the SEA-HKG would be more likely than JL SEA-NRT.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: 777way
Posted 2013-01-04 00:02:39 and read 8735 times.

Quoting HOONS90 (Reply 16):
I believe that the A330 is currently the largest anyone can send down there right now.

Singapore Airlines use 772 to Yangon since launching the route in October, however they will switch to A330 as well from winter schedule.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: ktachiya
Posted 2013-01-04 00:48:01 and read 8573 times.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 25):
...not compared to LAX, SFO and JFK

Yes, but if you take population into factor, I think you can say its a lot.

I have been hearing from the CX rep at Centrair that the primary reason they don't fly to SEA is because they already fly into YVR which is in proximity to SEA. I guess having two daily flights and a pilot base in YVR leads CX to believe that the Pacific Northwest is already served enough.....

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-04 00:58:37 and read 8517 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 23):

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Come on, send your 787 to PHX

It will happen since PHX is about to become a Oneworld hub.  


Just because US/AA merge doesn't mean PHX will survive as a hub.

It makes little sense to serve the small PHX-TYO market when JAL has LAX and SAN closely. If anything, JAL should look at LAS out West.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: Flyingsottsman
Posted 2013-01-04 03:09:41 and read 7737 times.

I wounder if they would ever start a service to MEL they have had rights to fly down to here for years but never took them up
we did have a Narita service about 10 years ago that was a JAL codeshare flight on QF metal a 763 i think but QF cut that service out. So i wounder if they will come down to here.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-04 06:04:36 and read 6796 times.

IF AA merges with Usair JAL could end up in CLT, stranger things have happened. Charlotte, North Carolina serves an area of the USA JAL doesn't hub into, DFW and ORD are not the same for the southeast region.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: jetsetter629
Posted 2013-01-04 06:16:25 and read 6699 times.

If you look at the underlying theme, those destinations JL are considering are all emerging markets. With tourism growing in Myanmar and Cambodia, KE has already taken advantage of funneling tourism to these countries. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are quickly growing economies in South Asia.

I think KE is at an advantage over JL as they are able to fly their smaller planes to cities such as CNX and PNH. I just think a JL 767 is too much plane for some of these destinations

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: cedarjet
Posted 2013-01-04 06:22:47 and read 6652 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 1):
Could JL restart NRT-SFO

I suppose it's surprising they don't fly this route but HND-SFO is much more convenient, by miles (literally!) and the times are fantastic - midnight takeoff out of Tokyo gives you all day and a nice dinner downtown before the easy journey out to HND about 10pm, and that gets you into SFO at 4pm, downtown by 6pm, light dinner and a walk and a normal bedtime. That's perfect!

Same with the return, leave SFO at 6pm which gives you most of the day in the city, arrive HND at 10pm, easy to sleep after all that flying, and once again, minimal jetlag.

Good work JAL!

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: allegiantflyer
Posted 2013-01-04 06:53:21 and read 6414 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 28):
It makes little sense to serve the small PHX-TYO market when JAL has LAX and SAN closely. If anything, JAL should look at LAS out West.

Lets be honest here. a Phoenix-Tokyo route is bound to happen,the PHX metro area is just about the fastes growing areas in the USA,buissness are comming and so are workers. Its going to happen,it has to whether it be now or 20 years from now,it will happen eventually. if LAS can hold up asia service PHX can.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: KFlyer
Posted 2013-01-04 06:59:49 and read 6344 times.

Certainly not a surprising move given that the presence in these markets will give JAL an advantage over ANA. It may in fact not even be based on the O&D demand, but the potential in connecting to/from North America - which is one of JL's strongest regions. And I'm quite sure that one or more of these routes will appear as a codeshare.

PM, the fastest way from BLR to Japan is with UL - and on NRT to BLR, you get a free stopover.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: wedgetail737
Posted 2013-01-04 07:20:25 and read 6198 times.

Quoting ktachiya (Reply 27):
I have been hearing from the CX rep at Centrair that the primary reason they don't fly to SEA is because they already fly into YVR which is in proximity to SEA. I guess having two daily flights and a pilot base in YVR leads CX to believe that the Pacific Northwest is already served enough.....

You are probably correct, but we have seen the airline industry do strange things like what JL and NH are doing right now. JL has flights to both LAX and SAN. Likewise, NH is flying to both SFO and SJC. But again, I do agree with CX flying 3X daily YVR-HKG, it's probably pretty covered. AS/QX has many connection opportunities through YVR and they are partners.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-04 08:32:39 and read 6040 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 28):
Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 23):

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Come on, send your 787 to PHX

It will happen since PHX is about to become a Oneworld hub.


Just because US/AA merge doesn't mean PHX will survive as a hub.

It makes little sense to serve the small PHX-TYO market when JAL has LAX and SAN closely. If anything, JAL should look at LAS out West.


AA would be foolish to cut the PHX hub. See the PHX Aviation thread for detailed info.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: us330
Posted 2013-01-04 08:54:34 and read 5986 times.

Quoting jetsetter629 (Reply 31):
With tourism growing in Myanmar and Cambodia, KE has already taken advantage of funneling tourism to these countries.

Doesnt KE use their 738s and 739s on these routes? What prevents JAL from doing the same with their 738s?

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: treebeard787
Posted 2013-01-04 09:00:52 and read 5954 times.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 19):

so 40 Million passengers isn't enough?

Yeah that is a lot, however the number of people who travel from PHX to Tokyo is much much much smaller then that, certainly not enough to warrant using 2 aircraft to serve the market non-stop when there are a plethora of options from LAX and SFO to NRT, you can also go though SAN as well now. I would expect another PHX-Europe flight way before anything to Asia.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: jetsetter629
Posted 2013-01-04 13:52:50 and read 5641 times.

Quoting us330 (Reply 37):
Doesnt KE use their 738s and 739s on these routes? What prevents JAL from doing the same with their 738s?

While NRT is about 600 miles east than ICN, it's still within range of the 738 so yes, some of the smaller cities in SE Asia are within reach

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-04 14:08:30 and read 5614 times.

Every sign, such as JL flying to destinations like BOS and SAN that can't survive only on Tokyo O&D, JL cutting all non-TYO longhauls, and now JL flying to places like RGN which have O&D to the U.S. but no flights seems to imply that JL is focusing more on expanding as a connection-based airline. With the Japanese O&D market shrinking, it is probably the best idea.

Also, while there seem to be many PHX boosters on the thread, is there really enough O&D to Asia? If NH hasn't flown to PHX as a *A hub why would JL fly to PHX which is not a 1W hub?

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-04 16:13:18 and read 5389 times.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 33):
Lets be honest here. a Phoenix-Tokyo route is bound to happen,the PHX metro area is just about the fastes growing areas in the USA,buissness are comming and so are workers. Its going to happen,it has to whether it be now or 20 years from now,it will happen eventually.

Within 20 years? Sure, it'll happen.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 33):
if LAS can hold up asia service PHX can.

How do you figure? Las Vegas-Asia is approximately 3x larger a market. Yields suck in both, but LAS is large enough that it supports service already n

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 36):
AA would be foolish to cut the PHX hub. See the PHX Aviation thread for detailed info.

Why would I see a biased thread for detailed info? A combined US-AA cannot support PHX with its cost structure. The hub will be severely cut. That's reality. The merger will absolutely suck for Phoenix. I don't necessarily believe the hub will close, but something like what DL now has at CVG and MEM is a very realistic possibility, and that won't support Asia.

[Edited 2013-01-04 16:19:03]

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-01-05 00:22:21 and read 4998 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 41):
Why would I see a biased thread for detailed info? A combined US-AA cannot support PHX with its cost structure. The hub will be severely cut. That's reality. The merger will absolutely suck for Phoenix. I don't necessarily believe the hub will close, but something like what DL now has at CVG and MEM is a very realistic possibility, and that won't support Asia.

  

Yep. The PHX hub - as it now exists - would never work at a merged airlines combined, higher, costs. Nor would it need to. US only has a hub of that scale in PHX today because it has no alternative and no choice - a combined, new AA would have many far superior options with which to handle much of the traffic that US now forces over PHX. I suspect a hub of around 200ish daily departures, about 1/3 mainline, is the best case scenario for PHX if a merger occurs.

As for JL adding PHX-NRT, I see that as highly, highly unlikely anytime soon, with or without a merger - most of the PHX-Asia traffic can be easily handled via LAX/PHX well into the future. If a merger does occur, I do, however, see PHL-NRT as being a distinct possibility.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: aztrainer
Posted 2013-01-05 04:19:51 and read 4789 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 42):
As for JL adding PHX-NRT, I see that as highly, highly unlikely anytime soon, with or without a merger - most of the PHX-Asia traffic can be easily handled via LAX/PHX well into the future. If a merger does occur, I do, however, see PHL-NRT as being a distinct possibility.

I have no ax to grind in this, but with this logic could the same not be said for SAN? They are 110 miles to the south of LAX and it is an easy trip to LAX from the SAN area. I thought that JL was using the 787 to access secondary markets that they could not serve with a larger plane?

Will PHX get service to Aisa, yes. When will it happen, not for some time IMHO.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-05 08:36:01 and read 4500 times.

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 43):
I have no ax to grind in this, but with this logic could the same not be said for SAN? They are 110 miles to the south of LAX and it is an easy trip to LAX from the SAN area. I thought that JL was using the 787 to access secondary markets that they could not serve with a larger plane?

It is still way too early for JL to judge how well the SAN flight is performing.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: wedgetail737
Posted 2013-01-05 09:43:25 and read 4404 times.

Quoting allegiantflyer (Reply 33):
if LAS can hold up asia service PHX can.
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 41):
How do you figure? Las Vegas-Asia is approximately 3x larger a market. Yields suck in both, but LAS is large enough that it supports service already n

The passenger demographics are completely different between LAS and PHX. People from Asia go to LAS to gamble. Comparatively, there is no gambling at PHX. PHX would be pretty much all be business.

PHX once had direct service to NGO when HP had 747-200's through HNL. So Asian service to PHX is plausible, especially with the Dreamliners.

Asian service is also supported by large Asian communities. I know that SJC and SAN both have large Asian communities. Does BOS? I don't know...never been there. Does PHX? I don't that answer either.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-01-05 10:07:36 and read 4351 times.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 45):
PHX once had direct service to NGO when HP had 747-200's through HNL.

And it was a DISASTER.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 45):
The passenger demographics are completely different between LAS and PHX. People from Asia go to LAS to gamble. Comparatively, there is no gambling at PHX. PHX would be pretty much all be business.

What business? The fares are bottom of the barrel. There's probably more actual business traffic in LAS, plus the tourism.

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 29):
I wounder if they would ever start a service to MEL
Quoting steex (Reply 13):
LHR-NRT-AKL is actually shorter, I think you're underestimating how much further east New Zealand is compared to Australia.

Japan-Australia/NZ traffic is famously low yield, NH doesn't even bother with it, and NZ has dropped HKGLHR and mentioned that its LHR service loses money. Not happening.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 41):
Why would I see a biased thread for detailed info?

  

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: treebeard787
Posted 2013-01-05 10:43:00 and read 4257 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 46):
Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 45):
PHX once had direct service to NGO when HP had 747-200's through HNL.

And it was a DISASTER.

That is an understatement, many of the HP PHX-HNL-NGO flights went out with less then a dozen passengers. HP's foray into 747s and long hauls nearly killed the airline, I feel they would have done better starting PHX-Europe over Asia at that time.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-05 11:30:24 and read 4181 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 46):
And it was a DISASTER.
Quoting treebeard787 (Reply 47):
That is an understatement, many of the HP PHX-HNL-NGO flights went out with less then a dozen passengers. HP's foray into 747s and long hauls nearly killed the airline, I feel they would have done better starting PHX-Europe over Asia at that time.

It was a disaster because HP got screwed with NGO, which at the time, had very very few further connections. HP played the game completely wrong.

If HP went with NRT and established some sort of JV with NH or JL then we'd be speaking a different story here.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-05 11:34:26 and read 4179 times.

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 43):
I have no ax to grind in this, but with this logic could the same not be said for SAN

SAN has good business ties to Japan.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 45):
The passenger demographics are completely different between LAS and PHX. People from Asia go to LAS to gamble. Comparatively, there is no gambling at PHX. PHX would be pretty much all be business.

No, the demographics aren't different at all. PHX would be nowhere close to being "all business." the primary driver of Arizona-Japan traffic would be Grand Canyon visitors and low-yield VFR to the like of Ho Chi Minh City and Taipei.

PHX-Asia fares suck - worse than Las Vegas, worse than Miami, worse than Orlando, worse than Denver - and none of those are particularly known for being high-yield to Asia.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: steex
Posted 2013-01-05 11:57:42 and read 4106 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 48):
It was a disaster because HP got screwed with NGO, which at the time, had very very few further connections. HP played the game completely wrong.

If HP went with NRT and established some sort of JV with NH or JL then we'd be speaking a different story here.

That's obviously speculation, though. Maybe it would've been a wild success, or maybe HP would've just bled slightly less and the route would've died a little slower - we have no way to know for sure. You may suspect the former, but the numbers (even today) suggest the latter.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: BA0197
Posted 2013-01-05 11:58:51 and read 4106 times.

I think JAL needs to consider DFW and the oneworld connections.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-01-05 11:59:13 and read 4100 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 49):
SAN has good business ties to Japan.

Same with PHX

*countless banks here in the valley with ties to overseas markets in Asia
*IBM
*Intel
*Boeing
*ASU
*Microsoft
*A few Japanese software companies have their American offices here
*Trading companies
--In particular, A number of my Japanese contacts are from trading companies in Tokyo. When they come to America, they prefer going through Phoenix offices and delegations because of the lower tax rates here in the valley. One of them told me that more and more Japanese may start funneling their way to Phoenix should taxes rise even higher in Cali.

Oh and remember the Skymark thread? I asked my contacts and had my contacts ask their contacts about Skymark to America? Well I asked them in the same question if JL or NH began a flight to PHX, would they take it to connect to instead of LAX or SFO, and almost all of them said yes. The ones who said no said they would use SAN.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 49):
PHX-Asia fares suck - worse than Las Vegas, worse than Miami, worse than Orlando, worse than Denver - and none of those are particularly known for being high-yield to Asia.

Actually they're not that bad. It's just right priced with DL (around $1000 if you have to connect in LAX or SEA)

Compared to $1500 out of CVG-DTW-NRT.

Phoenix is a good place for competitive fares.


And for the love of god, people....Phoenix is one of the largest cities in the west. We have a pull from all over the world. The yields on the BA flight are extremely high and the cities of Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler are among the most wealthiest cities in the US. If AA was stupid enough to close down the hub here, then you'd leave 4.4 million people (not including the draw from TUS and FLG) in the dust *no pun intended,* and many more airlines would swoop in and pick up the slack big time. US is going nowhere. Once the economy picks up again and people begin filing out here again, PHX will most likely see more expansion, especially since PHX is beginning to look at modernizing plans for terminals 3 and 4 (which includes more dedicated international gates.)

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-05 12:09:00 and read 4052 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 52):
Actually they're not that bad. It's just right priced with DL (around $1000 if you have to connect in LAX or SEA)

I'm not looking at delta.com, I'm looking at MIDT fare data - a sampling of fares among all carriers for FY11, which shows the fares suck.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 52):
Same with PHX

And obviously it's not creating premium travel demand, because it simply doesn't exist.

And despite Phoenix proximity to Asia, there are only 25 daily passengers to Tokyo. It's around the size of Miami-Hong Kong, except those MIAHKG passengers are paying more than $3k round-trip on average, while PHXTYO passengers are paying less than $1,300.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 52):
The yields on the BA flight are extremely high

No, they aren't. BA yields are extremely high to NYC, LA, D.C., Miami, Boston and - ironically - Las Vegas. While the PHX fares aren't bad, they aren't anything that shouts amazing.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-05 12:12:36 and read 4035 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 52):
then you'd leave 4.4 million people (not including the draw from TUS and FLG) in the dust *no pun intended,* and many more airlines would swoop in and pick up the slack big time.

No, you wouldn't, because Southwest serves the market very well.

And nobody said AA is going to leave. AA will absolutely stay, and a very likely scenario is a severe right-sizing of the operation to focus on grabbing the premium section of local O&D, which is exactly what DL has done at MEM and CVG.

Topic: RE: JAL Looking At New Routes
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-01-05 12:21:31 and read 4014 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 48):
If HP went with NRT and established some sort of JV with NH or JL then we'd be speaking a different story here.

We'd be speaking about a disaster where the names and places were different and that's about it. It probably would have been far worse, since there at least is a reasonable local market on the shorter PHXHNL and HNLNGO segments, rather than the small PHX-Asia market spread over a long, expensive segment and OA beyond NRT.


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