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Topic: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: oldeuropean
Posted 2013-01-08 08:22:54 and read 16624 times.

Tim Clark: EK consider to order another 30 A380s:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rjumbos-for-network-expansion.html

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-08 08:32:02 and read 16559 times.

Well JL said he had a large order in the works and a number of folks thought it could be another major top-up from EK...

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-01-08 08:51:24 and read 16359 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Well JL said he had a large order in the works and a number of folks thought it could be another major top-up from EK...

Well, as always time will tell.   But they are going to need that new airport in Dubai now pretty soon. Where else can they park all these A380's, B77W's and the A350's to come.  

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: KC135Hydraulics
Posted 2013-01-08 08:53:27 and read 16358 times.

Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: starrion
Posted 2013-01-08 09:03:17 and read 16230 times.

at what point does top-up become over-the-top-up?

Or is the plan to start cycling units out of the fleet?

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-08 09:06:47 and read 16172 times.

Quoting starrion (Reply 4):
Or is the plan to start cycling units out of the fleet?

A good number (if not majority) of EK's frames are on 12-year leases, so they will certainly be placing replacement orders.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Steelyman
Posted 2013-01-08 09:08:46 and read 16142 times.

It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: United885
Posted 2013-01-08 09:11:11 and read 16103 times.

120 A380.
That´s an unbelievable number!
But why not? They have 5 daily flights to LHR on it´s own...I guess one day, EK will serve even the smallest airports with multiple A380 flights daily 

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-01-08 09:44:48 and read 15796 times.

Quoting starrion (Reply 4):
Or is the plan to start cycling units out of the fleet?

Both. EK wants 120 whalejets but they will have to replace the older frames in the near feature. So expect a few new orders between today and 2020.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: OzGlobal
Posted 2013-01-08 09:51:13 and read 15718 times.

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 3):
Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

This is partly about developing demand, not just servicing it. 707's were big when no one but the wealthy could afford to fly, but they and 747's introduced 'tourist' class and the capacity tapped new demand. A huge new middle class is developing in China, India and other high growth markets. More and more people are travelling long haul more readily and more often in the world. Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?

Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-01-08 11:50:33 and read 15087 times.

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 3):
Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

Have you seen their passenger numbers and the sustained year-on-year growth in those numbers?

Quoting starrion (Reply 4):
at what point does top-up become over-the-top-up?

When their passenger numbers stop growing?

It's odd that EK ordering 50 77Ws at a throw isn't generally seen as "ridiculous". Why is that?  

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Well JL said he had a large order in the works and a number of folks thought it could be another major top-up from EK...

Indeed. It could be that an MoU/LoI has already been signed. If it has, I would expect a firm order at the Dubai air show in November. Then again, the postulated "significant order" could be something else all together.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: greenwichsud
Posted 2013-01-08 12:10:44 and read 14926 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

No one is denying that that the global aviation market is growing at a rate faster than that of the US. That is the definition of a mature market: 1. all demand that can be stimulated has been tapped and 2. population and wealth growth in the US, for the most part, is typical of that of a mature nation. That is not the case in much of the world and there is clearly much more demand to be tapped beyond US O&D. With that said, when you read about the woes of the European carriers (AF being in worse shape than most), QF and, more recently SQ, one must wonder if there is enough room at this growing table for everyone.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

The revenue numbers from the stronger US carriers (none of whom fly A380s) indicate otherwise.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: JAAlbert
Posted 2013-01-08 12:26:32 and read 14875 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 10):
Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 3):
Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

Have you seen their passenger numbers and the sustained year-on-year growth in those numbers?
Quoting scbriml (Reply 10):
It's odd that EK ordering 50 77Ws at a throw isn't generally seen as "ridiculous". Why is that?


Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous. Of course, Mr. Clark knows far better than us a.netters how many aircraft he needs and if he needs 50 new 77Ws and 120 380s, of course he should have them straight away. And yes, it seems he's making mountains of money flying these things around. I think what we are all breathless about is the shear size of these orders. No other carrier orders widebodies in such numbers - and certainly not in a single order or so. A thread a few years ago listed the largest 747s operators of the time. JAL had 70 or so 747s, BA had north of 50. Those are big airplanes and big fleets. EK comes along and intends on almost doubling the size of the largest 747 fleet with the even larger 380. On top of that, EK operates 50 77Ws and has another 120 on order. Its an astonishing number of big, big aircraft and certainly worth pondering.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 6):
It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...

This is an interesting comment. What is the utilization rate of EK's aircraft? Could it do more with fewer planes?

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-08 14:13:11 and read 14460 times.

Quoting United885 (Reply 7):
120 A380.
That´s an unbelievable number!

It's not that big when you look at the number of 747s (over 50 in a few cases) operated by several carriers long ago when the global air traffic market was much smaller and deregulation was almost non-existent.

Or look at QF which once had around 30 744s in service, and Australia isn't a huge market and, unlike DXB, isn't a connecting hub well-located for most of the world's population.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: OzGlobal
Posted 2013-01-08 14:14:09 and read 14464 times.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 12):
Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous. Of course, Mr. Clark knows far better than us a.netters how many aircraft he needs and if he needs 50 new 77Ws and 120 380s, of course he should have them straight away. And yes, it seems he's making mountains of money flying these things around. I think what we are all breathless about is the shear size of these orders. No other carrier orders widebodies in such numbers - and certainly not in a single order or so. A thread a few years ago listed the largest 747s operators of the time. JAL had 70 or so 747s, BA had north of 50. Those are big airplanes and big fleets. EK comes along and intends on almost doubling the size of the largest 747 fleet with the even larger 380. On top of that, EK operates 50 77Ws and has another 120 on order. Its an astonishing number of big, big aircraft and certainly worth pondering.

Don't forget, the UAE have a limited time window to re-invent them-selves as an economy. They have the sense to recongnize that their relatively modest oil reserves will run out soon enough and the music will stop. They have as a sort of city state, the task of inventing an alternative economy to replace the oil. I think they look to Singapore: a city state with nothing but a strategic location as a port (sea and air). UAE want to be the new Singapore. Emirates is one of their main levers. Now may be seen as the time to put it all on that horse and hope it comes home, as Singapore Airlines has helped Singapore to be what it is today....

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: justinlee
Posted 2013-01-08 14:43:26 and read 13889 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
This is partly about developing demand, not just servicing it. 707's were big when no one but the wealthy could afford to fly, but they and 747's introduced 'tourist' class and the capacity tapped new demand. A huge new middle class is developing in China, India and other high growth markets. More and more people are travelling long haul more readily and more often in the world. Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?

That's the whole point of EK. They are not serving passengers, they are creating passengers. With one stop service linking every major cities in Europe, Asia and Africa, it provides cheaper and more convenient connections for the rising middle class and business.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: HoMsaR
Posted 2013-01-08 14:47:00 and read 13818 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
A good number (if not majority) of EK's frames are on 12-year leases, so they will certainly be placing replacement orders.

So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

12 years isn't exactly old, especially on a plane that spends most of its life doing long-haul flights.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-01-08 14:47:33 and read 13818 times.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 6):
It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...

If you look at DXB in the middle of one of EK's arrival banks, there will be a lot of planes on the ground. Look at Dubai at other times and it's almost devoid of Emirates planes. I would suggest EK's utilisation of its planes is better than many other airlines.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 12):
Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous.

But what, in Emirates history of amazing traffic and profit growth, makes anyone think they don't know exactly what they're doing?   

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: dergay
Posted 2013-01-08 14:54:08 and read 13726 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

Totally agree - remember Concorde, America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn............

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: KaiTak747
Posted 2013-01-08 15:40:07 and read 13047 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?


I read on the Swiss inflight magazine that only 5% of the world's population have been on a plane... not sure if accurate but a surprising figure nonetheless.

EK really are banking on a huge, sustained increase in travel demand from East to West to fill all those A380s, 777s and A350s. They are well positioned to connect emerging economies in Asia, Africa and elsewhere to the rest of the world and with their new airport I'm sure they will prosper.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-08 15:48:13 and read 12940 times.

Quoting dergay (Reply 19):
When will they ever learn...

You could ask the same of India....

They banned supersonic overflight by Concorde services planned for SE Asia and Australia and they currently ban the A380...

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: scouseflyer
Posted 2013-01-08 15:50:57 and read 12896 times.

Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 17):
So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

That isn't the much of an issue for EK as they've sold and leased back many of their planes so it's the lessors tkaing the punt on future values and even 50 A380s hitting the used market is small compared to the numbers of narrow bodies that will soon be "churned" every year - both A and B are looking between 400 and 500 deliveries a year add to that the C series and any chinese offering and that's possibly 1000 new NBs a year being delivered and pushing a similar number of older frames onto the second hand market.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: KC135Hydraulics
Posted 2013-01-08 15:57:12 and read 12785 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
They banned supersonic overflight by Concorde services planned for SE Asia and Australia and they currently ban the A380...

Aside from obviously smaller airports that cannot handle an aircraft the size of an A380, where is this aircraft "banned" in the United States? Maybe this is sarcasm and I'm missing it, because I'm slow on the up-take, but I've not heard of any banning of this aircraft at US airports equipped with the infrastructure to accomodate it

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: rjm777ual
Posted 2013-01-08 16:25:58 and read 12452 times.

The A380 is clearly not banned anywhere, as it is flown to almost every major US airport. He may mean that some airports might not have the runway space/terminal space to accommodate it, but that isn't "banning."

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: flood
Posted 2013-01-08 16:40:47 and read 12272 times.

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 22):
Aside from obviously smaller airports that cannot handle an aircraft the size of an A380, where is this aircraft "banned" in the United States?

His comment was in reference to India, not the US. India hasn't permitted LH and EK to operate anything larger than the 748 into the country.

Not sure what the current status is, but here's an older thread on the issue:
Indian Govt: Indefinite Ban On A380 To India (by bastew Oct 4 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Asiaflyer
Posted 2013-01-08 16:56:02 and read 12746 times.

Not really big news about another 30 A380 for EK as Tim Clark was mentioning this already last year.
What impresses me with EK is their massive growth with sustained profitability. European carriers are struggling to stay with one daily flight on traditional trunk routes like Europe-BKK, while EK announces their 5th daily to BKK.
Those who declared the hub-concept dead might have to re-think.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Tardis
Posted 2013-01-08 16:58:49 and read 12750 times.

This sounds like Pan Am in the early 1970's Too many wide bodies.....

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-08 17:11:37 and read 13150 times.

Pan Am in the early 70s was flying half empty B741s all over the place, for almost zero profit. Spot the key difference with EK.....

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: HoMsaR
Posted 2013-01-08 20:31:51 and read 11526 times.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 21):
Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 17):
So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

That isn't the much of an issue for EK as they've sold and leased back many of their planes so it's the lessors tkaing the punt on future values and even 50 A380s hitting the used market is small compared to the numbers of narrow bodies that will soon be "churned" every year - both A and B are looking between 400 and 500 deliveries a year add to that the C series and any chinese offering and that's possibly 1000 new NBs a year being delivered and pushing a similar number of older frames onto the second hand market.

It may not be an issue for EK, per se, but it will be an issue for the lessors and the market as a whole.

It's different from the narrowbody issue because there's a massive market for narrowbodies, including a significant second-hand market for smaller carriers, upstarts, even major carriers looking for additional lift faster than the manufacturers can produce it.

If EK decides to give up its A380s after 12 years, where will those planes go? 50 A380s represents just shy of two years' production (the 747-8 passenger version probably won't contribute to significantly to that number), so that is kind of a large influx of used metal into the market (of course, all 50 wouldn't become available at once).

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: ASA
Posted 2013-01-08 21:35:26 and read 11011 times.

Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 16):
So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

We all get our own A380s to drive around ...      

Well, atleast, EK keeps the A380 program floating and in the black. EU should be proud!  

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-01-08 21:43:08 and read 10968 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 27):
Pan Am in the early 70s was flying half empty B741s all over the place, for almost zero profit. Spot the key difference with EK.....

Pan Am = no little to none domestic feed network with huge number of intercontinental routes.

Emirates = strategically placed hub at the historic trading routes crossing between three biggest continents in the world(Asia, Africa and Europe) and growing feed to its hub.

While it does not justify the number of A380s bought, it does justify the number of any other type in their fleet and the general business model.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: aerorobnz
Posted 2013-01-08 22:16:22 and read 10669 times.

I feel that the 30 will only come when the 389 is confirmed, I also think that many of the existing undelivered 388 orders will be trensfered to 389s.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: OzGlobal
Posted 2013-01-08 22:28:28 and read 10546 times.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 12):
Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous. Of course, Mr. Clark knows far better than us a.netters how many aircraft he needs and if he needs 50 new 77Ws and 120 380s, of course he should have them straight away. And yes, it seems he's making mountains of money flying these things around. I think what we are all breathless about is the shear size of these orders. No other carrier orders widebodies in such numbers - and certainly not in a single order or so. A thread a few years ago listed the largest 747s operators of the time. JAL had 70 or so 747s, BA had north of 50. Those are big airplanes and big fleets. EK comes along and intends on almost doubling the size of the largest 747 fleet with the even larger 380. On top of that, EK operates 50 77Ws and has another 120 on order. Its an astonishing number of big, big aircraft and certainly worth pondering.

Don't forget, the UAE have a limited time window to re-invent them-selves as an economy. They have the sense to recongnize that their relatively modest oil reserves will run out soon enough and the music will stop. They have as a sort of city state, the task of inventing an alternative economy to replace the oil. I think they look to Singapore: a city state with nothing but a strategic location as a port (sea and air). UAE want to be the new Singapore. Emirates is one of their main levers. Now may be seen as the time to put it all on that horse and hope it comes home, as Singapore Airlines has helped Singapore to be what it is today....

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-01-08 22:29:45 and read 10645 times.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 32):
I feel that the 30 will only come when the 389 is confirmed, I also think that many of the existing undelivered 388 orders will be trensfered to 389s.

That's not what Tim Clark has said.   

Frankly, Airbus would be pretty dumb to launch the -900 before they've delivered all (or the vast majority) of EK's -800s.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: gauravpai
Posted 2013-01-08 23:29:11 and read 9967 times.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 6):
It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...

do you have an actual source on a comment like that?
i have it that the average turnaround per aircraft currently at DXB is only 4 hrs or so...please check the facts

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
You could ask the same of India....

They banned supersonic overflight by Concorde services planned for SE Asia and Australia and they currently ban the A380...

there are hardly enough airports that can support the A380 ..and how does it affect flights to SE Asia, flights can overfly indian airspace they just cant land here,thats all???

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: abba
Posted 2013-01-09 03:07:37 and read 7800 times.

Quoting KaiTak747 (Reply 19):
EK really are banking on a huge, sustained increase in travel demand from East to West to fill all those A380s, 777s and A350s. They are well positioned to connect emerging economies in Asia, Africa and elsewhere to the rest of the world and with their new airport I'm sure they will prosper.



I am not so surprised by the many 380 - relative to the model EK is working after.

I am more curios as to why they want all these 777ERs and 350s - in particular as TC seems to want them as capable as possible.

I understand that they have a few long routes that need capacity for many hours of flight. However, a very large proportion of EKs destinations is within 5-6 hours travel from DBX (that will cover most important parts of Africa, Asia and Europe). Why TC is not calling for a super light WB with the 777ER/351 capacity build for up to max 10h flights is beyond my understanding. Rather they use ER frames for MR missions...

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-01-09 03:28:49 and read 7497 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 27):
Pan Am in the early 70s was flying half empty B741s all over the place, for almost zero profit. Spot the key difference with EK.....

Boeing claimed break even was as little as 100 passengers.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 33):
Frankly, Airbus would be pretty dumb to launch the -900 before they've delivered all (or the vast majority) of EK's -800s.

Why?

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-09 03:37:47 and read 7380 times.

I would rather see the rumoured "significant" A380 order coming from a new airline, but Emirates has surprised us more than often. They upgrade many routes from 77Ws to A380 and it seems to work.

Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 28):
If EK decides to give up its A380s after 12 years, where will those planes go? 50 A380s represents just shy of two years' production (the 747-8 passenger version probably won't contribute to significantly to that number), so that is kind of a large influx of used metal into the market (of course, all 50 wouldn't become available at once).

By the time that happens, after 2020, many 744s still need to be replaced. But who knows, maybe EK extends the leases.
Also note that before that, from 2016 onwards, EK and SQ will flood the market with used 77Ws.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-01-09 04:20:37 and read 6873 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 36):
Why?

To avoid EK simply switching undelivered -800s to -900s. That would generate some incremental revenue for Airbus, but nowhere near the revenue that the same number of new -900 sales would represent.

I don't think there's enough other interest in the -900 today to justify its launch. I'd love to see it, but I don't think it makes sense for Airbus today (workload on A350 and A320neo).

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-01-09 04:50:46 and read 6452 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 38):
I don't think there's enough other interest in the -900 today to justify its launch. I'd love to see it, but I don't think it makes sense for Airbus today (workload on A350 and A320neo).

I would love to see it too. But I guess a launch of the A389 in 2015 and an EIS in 2020 seems realistic. The A350 development should be finalized in 2017 or so which means development resources are becoming available for the possible A389.  

I am sure EK would be one of the launch customers for the plane, but first let us wait and see if they will be the one taking another 30 A380's.  .

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-01-09 05:30:51 and read 5952 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 38):
To avoid EK simply switching undelivered -800s to -900s. That would generate some incremental revenue for Airbus, but nowhere near the revenue that the same number of new -900 sales would represent.

I know this is a difficult concept but revenue as standalone measurement is useless.

Switching models will mean some lost profit. But if this is a short term loss and long term the profit is greater by selling -900s then it is a smart move. Which leads to:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 38):
I don't think there's enough other interest in the -900 today to justify its launch. I'd love to see it, but I don't think it makes sense for Airbus today (workload on A350 and A320neo).

If there isn't enough interest then it shouldn't be done, simple as that. But what is the interest and how much is needed? Despite all the claims about there not being enough market for the A380 it has proven to take enough orders to justify itself. Not to cover the problematic development and production, which are different issues, but enough to justify the business case.

I do not have any direct data. No cost calculations from Airbus and certainly no direct information of what airlines are thinking. But looking at secondary information, what airbus is publicly releasing, what airlines are saying and projections and historical data from many sources, I find it easy to see a case for the -900 after NEO and A350. It is time for Airbus to think about what they will do after those two programs, and I think the -900 looks like a very good option.

Conversion of some -800 orders isn't a bad way to get it rolling.

[Edited 2013-01-09 05:45:42]

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: a380900
Posted 2013-01-09 05:44:52 and read 5775 times.

Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 16):
So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

Indeed. Can companies start operations with the A380 with second hand planes? I guess that's what carrier like Corsair did with the 747. That will really start a new life for the plane, probably in the super high-density, ultra low casm market.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
If you look at DXB in the middle of one of EK's arrival banks, there will be a lot of planes on the ground. Look at Dubai at other times and it's almost devoid of Emirates planes. I would suggest EK's utilisation of its planes is better than many other airlines.

Was in Dubai in December, so all the gates empty in the middle of the day. Don't believe the pictures. All the planes are there at the same time because that's how a hub is supposed to work.

Quoting dergay (Reply 18):
Totally agree - remember Concorde, America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn............

They learn all right: they successfully killed Concorde.

Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 28):
If EK decides to give up its A380s after 12 years, where will those planes go? 50 A380s represents just shy of two years' production (the 747-8 passenger version probably won't contribute to significantly to that number), so that is kind of a large influx of used metal into the market (of course, all 50 wouldn't become available at once).

Indeed.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 31):
I feel that the 30 will only come when the 389 is confirmed, I also think that many of the existing undelivered 388 orders will be trensfered to 389s.

Isn't the freighter version making more sense than the A380-900, as much as I would love to see it built...

Quoting cmf (Reply 40):
But looking at secondary information, what airbus is publicly releasing, what airlines are saying and projections and historical data from many sources, I find it easy to see a case for the -900 after NEO and A350. It is time for Airbus to think about what they will do after those two programs, and I think the -900 looks like a very good option.

Same thing: wouldn't the freighter make more sense than the A380-900?

We all say that the length of the 900 could be as long as 15m longer or so. Uzar Hazy version. What does the factory in Toulouse say? What can they handle in there?

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: babybus
Posted 2013-01-09 06:29:15 and read 5296 times.

Quoting justinlee (Reply 15):
They are not serving passengers, they are creating passengers.

Umm...if only all airlines could do that.

As Airbus say in their marketing blurb ' it takes an A380 to compete with an A380'. Flying with Emirates has many advantages compared to flying with any other airline, for instance, nice food, sexy staff and the A380 itself.

Flying long haul on any twin jet is just not fun.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-09 06:40:25 and read 5147 times.

Quoting dergay (Reply 18):
Totally agree - remember Concorde, America initially banned it!

Concord violated noise requirements. It was given an exemption for a small number of airports. How can one require new planes to be quieter than a threshold and yet let Concorde be much louder? Eventually it was allowed, but there was a regulation missed.

Otherwise, now that ATL, MIA, IAD, JFK, LAX, and SFO are A380 ready, what is the worry for the US. If you mean India...    EK is more constrained by the 54k/week seat cap by the bilateral.

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 22):
Aside from obviously smaller airports that cannot handle an aircraft the size of an A380, where is this aircraft "banned" in the United States?

Amazingly, more and more airports are finding 'cheap ways' to be A380 ready... Amazing what happens.

Quoting a380900 (Reply 41):
Same thing: wouldn't the freighter make more sense than the A380-900?

I disagree. The freight market is weak right now. Now if you mean to first develop the gear and breaks... ok. But there really isn't a market today as FedEx has moved on. For LHR, NRT/HND, PEK, and a few other markets, the A389 is needed today.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-09 07:36:12 and read 4540 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 40):
Switching models will mean some lost profit. But if this is a short term loss and long term the profit is greater by selling -900s then it is a smart move.

Airbus doesn't need to launch the A380-900 because there is no competition to the A380-800. It's the only viable VLA in service now and it will remain so for a very long time.

I am sure EK would love the A380-900 because it would have them money - they could take their five A380-800 frequencies to LHR and condense them to three A380-900s. But I expect Airbus makes more money from selling EK five A380-800s then they would selling them three A380-900s.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: JAAlbert
Posted 2013-01-09 07:50:49 and read 4353 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
But what, in Emirates history of amazing traffic and profit growth, makes anyone think they don't know exactly what they're doing?

Absolutely nothing - as I stated in my post. EK obviously created a profitable business plan - but that doesn't take away from the amazement and wonder a person such as myself feels when reading about these huge airplane orders.

Quoting dergay (Reply 18):
remember Concorde, America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn............

America didn't restrict the Concorde with the intent of harming the plane's economical operation - it restricted supersonic overflight of the continent because of the noise and sonic boom problem. I think the USA made the right call on that issue. Having our walls shaken and windows rattling throughout the day as these planes passed overhead would have been miserable.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: OzGlobal
Posted 2013-01-09 08:00:53 and read 4245 times.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 45):
Quoting dergay (Reply 18):
remember Concorde, America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn............

America didn't restrict the Concorde with the intent of harming the plane's economical operation - it restricted supersonic overflight of the continent because of the noise and sonic boom problem. I think the USA made the right call on that issue.

Really? I'm surprised to hear that from an aviation enthusiast. I'm sure if the US had built it, it would not have been the case. Do a search on some of the not so practical reasons and the lobbies behind the 'housewife' who led the opposition.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: ATL
Posted 2013-01-09 08:03:15 and read 4221 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?

Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

7 Billion. And no. US Aviation market dynamics are obviously not those of other parts of the world. But this isn't news. This is the result of a mature economy, the biggest one at that. You can't blame Boeing for not forecasting an oil kingdom throwing its money at the A380 program like that. I totally agree that the flying world is about to hit another growth boom, with Chinese middle class and other countries' middle class growing, but there is no need to compare making calculated decisions with 'clearly they're getting it all wrong'.

Quoting dergay (Reply 18):
Totally agree - remember Concorde, America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn............

Don't make an accusation with no actual evidence. Noise restrictions. The Concorde was loud. Also only banned for a few months.... In its very first year....

Please keep the anti-US circlejerking to a minimum

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-09 08:15:50 and read 4099 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 46):
I'm sure if the US had built it, it would not have been the case.

  

The US Congress ended the US SST program in 1971 when they ended funding to Boeing to continue the 2707-300. And one of the main factors that resulted in the Senate and House of Representatives ending support was pressure from environmental groups who argued against the 2707 for the same reasons they argued against Concorde.

It's a dry read, but the book Clipped Wings: The American SST Conflict by Mel Horwitch goes into great detail about the SST debate in the United States.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: UALWN
Posted 2013-01-09 08:34:54 and read 3894 times.

Quoting ATL (Reply 47):
Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?
Quoting ATL (Reply 47):
7 Billion.

Try less than half a billion. Only about 5% of today's world population has ever been on a commercial flight.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: ekgold
Posted 2013-01-09 08:35:29 and read 3901 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 35):
I am more curios as to why they want all these 777ERs and 350s - in particular as TC seems to want them as capable as possible.

I understand that they have a few long routes that need capacity for many hours of flight. However, a very large proportion of EKs destinations is within 5-6 hours travel from DBX (that will cover most important parts of Africa, Asia and Europe). Why TC is not calling for a super light WB with the 777ER/351 capacity build for up to max 10h flights is beyond my understanding. Rather they use ER frames for MR missions...

EK Drivers may correct me here, but EK uses the capability by filling the bellies with freight. A good friend who drives EK T7's describes the T7 as a freighter that also carries a bunch of pax about the planet..... The ER provides a higher MTOW and hence more cargo as well as cramming the Y class pax in 10 abreast....

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: OzGlobal
Posted 2013-01-09 10:18:16 and read 3657 times.

Quoting ATL (Reply 47):
You can't blame Boeing for not forecasting an oil kingdom throwing its money at the A380 program like that.

My post mentioned "US carriers" not US aircraft manufacturers: DL, UA, AA,, If KL, AF, QF, EK, LH and others can profitably fly A380 to US destinations and they are, then why cant DL, UA, AA fly them profitably in the other direction....???

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: ATL
Posted 2013-01-09 10:43:34 and read 3564 times.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 49):
Try less than half a billion. Only about 5% of today's world population has ever been on a commercial flight.

I was referring to the actual world population... The world population is 7 Billion people, not 8 billion. 7, not 8. Minute detail though.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: ATL
Posted 2013-01-09 10:48:51 and read 3537 times.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 51):
My post mentioned "US carriers" not US aircraft manufacturers: DL, UA, AA,, If KL, AF, QF, EK, LH and others can profitably fly A380 to US destinations and they are, then why cant DL, UA, AA fly them profitably in the other direction....???

As both you and I stated, it is a completely different dynamic. The US aviation industry is all about a lot of smaller aircraft, rather than a few big ones. Notice how AA and other US carriers even have 757s on some trans atl routes... I'm sure there is an explanation for that. I doubt US companies don't do their research. While the A380 may work for european airlines, it may not for US airlines at all...

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-09 11:01:47 and read 3504 times.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 49):
Try less than half a billion. Only about 5% of today's world population has ever been on a commercial flight.

I would think more. 5% would be roughly 350 million people, about the population of the US. Surely more have flown on a plane at least once.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: HoMsaR
Posted 2013-01-09 11:31:29 and read 3431 times.

Quoting na (Reply 54):

I would think more. 5% would be roughly 350 million people, about the population of the US. Surely more have flown on a plane at least once.

Doesn't surprise me that it's only 5%.

Airlines have a lot of repeat business driving their traffic, and the most populous parts of the world still have fairly high poverty rates which would imply that these folks aren't flying.

I would be curious (though it would be even more off-topic for this thread) how many US residents, European residents, etc. have flown at least once.


Oh, and stop calling me Shirley.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: abba
Posted 2013-01-09 11:42:33 and read 3373 times.

Quoting ekgold (Reply 50):
but EK uses the capability by filling the bellies with freight

That at least makes sense

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: greenwichsud
Posted 2013-01-09 13:34:20 and read 3183 times.

Quoting ATL (Reply 53):
As both you and I stated, it is a completely different dynamic. The US aviation industry is all about a lot of smaller aircraft, rather than a few big ones. Notice how AA and other US carriers even have 757s on some trans atl routes... I'm sure there is an explanation for that. I doubt US companies don't do their research. While the A380 may work for european airlines, it may not for US airlines at all...

Taking that back a step, population, wealth and commerce in the US is much more widely spread around the US than what is typical for an Asian or European country (or in Asia/Europe as a single geographical entity). There are thousands of large businesses that choose to locate wholly or partially in second and third tier cities around the US (and not within driving/rail distance to a first tier city). Together they generate a massive amount of demand. This forces fragmentation of traffic flows that you don't see in major European or Asian population centers.

In addition, let's not ignore the fact that much of Asia and Europe is geographically positioned to connect people from almost any two points on the planet. Looking at a world map and current aircraft capabilities, DXB/AUH/IST/etc. are at the "center" of the world's population and appear to be perfectly positioned for that. That is not a role that US carriers are positioned to take on - either geographically or politically (i.e. US transit visa restrictions).

[Edited 2013-01-09 13:39:21]

[Edited 2013-01-09 13:42:40]

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-09 13:47:03 and read 3127 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 27):
Pan Am in the early 70s was flying half empty B741s all over the place, for almost zero profit. Spot the key difference with EK.....

The big difference then is that fares were heavily regulated by governments and there was no flexibility to reduce fares to fill empty seats. In most major markets today airlines change fares many times a day to increase demand and fill empty seats.

Even before the 747 went into service, average load factors were rarely above 60%, so suddenly more than doubling the number of seats on many routes obviously had a negative impact on those already low load factors. And the introduction of the 747 almost coincided with a major recession followed by a huge spike in oil prices which further killed demand.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-01-09 14:03:58 and read 3068 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
Airbus doesn't need to launch the A380-900 because there is no competition to the A380-800. It's the only viable VLA in service now and it will remain so for a very long time.

I think it is more complicated than that. First, I don't think it is reasonable to think that every customer interested in a -900 will take an -800 instead. Second, by reducing CASK one more step you make hubing more attractive and may prevent an airline from buying multiple smaller planes to do P2P.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
I am sure EK would love the A380-900 because it would have them money - they could take their five A380-800 frequencies to LHR and condense them to three A380-900s. But I expect Airbus makes more money from selling EK five A380-800s then they would selling them three A380-900s.

I think the it would be 4 x -900 to get 5 x -800 capacity but I agree Airbus would make more money selling 5 instead of 4. Question is if that is how they would be used.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: N14AZ
Posted 2013-01-09 14:14:23 and read 3036 times.

I belong to the group of a-netters who don't believe (i.e. don't hope) that EK is not behind this so called "significant MoU" (if it ever materializes). As Astuteman mentioned in the other thread, Tim Clark said almost exactly the same about one year ago (Oldeuropean, don't want to be offensive): that he would have the demand for another 30 A 380s but that they are lacking the required airport infrastructure in Dubai.

Edit: my bloody English....

[Edited 2013-01-09 14:15:13]

[Edited 2013-01-09 14:17:41]

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-09 14:33:05 and read 2991 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 59):
First, I don't think it is reasonable to think that every customer interested in a -900 will take an -800 instead.

True, they could take two 777-300ERs | A350-1000s - same passenger capacity as one A380-900 and significantly more cargo capacity.

[Edited 2013-01-09 14:33:20]

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: GDB
Posted 2013-01-09 15:16:37 and read 2859 times.

Quoting dergay (Reply 18):
America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn.

A little unfair, as someone who had the pleasure of being involved with this aircraft, I can say that the Port Of New York banned it, until BA and AF developed a departure operation out of JFK that reduced community noise.
The US government never banned it though, witness BA and AF starting operations to IAD 18 months before they finally won the right to operate out of JFK.

You are right though that the FAA banned supersonic overland flight, which the rest of the world followed. However that was also one of the reasons that the B2707 was axed before the first airframe was completed in 1971.
So this rulings first scalp was the American SST project.

As for EK and the A380, who would bet against their record so far?

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: thegeek
Posted 2013-01-09 20:01:35 and read 2639 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 59):
I think the it would be 4 x -900 to get 5 x -800 capacity but I agree Airbus would make more money selling 5 instead of 4. Question is if that is how they would be used.

The A389 would justify a higher sale price, perhaps even per seat due to its superior CASM. Could cost them less to build the 4 A389s and make them more profit. What you have posted is not an axiom, but it is likely if the A389 is a low volume aircraft as expected.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-09 20:14:13 and read 2608 times.

EK seems to be treading on the fine line between capitalizing on the rise of the middle classes in developing nations, greater tourism etc. and leading themselves into a bubble which may very well pop, either if DXB becomes dysfunctional with all these aircraft, AI, 9W, etc. get their act together, or EK and CA, CZ, etc. kill themselves by competing on trash fares on ultra-longhaul markets.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-01-09 20:20:37 and read 2594 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):
True, they could take two 777-300ERs | A350-1000s - same passenger capacity as one A380-900 and significantly more cargo capacity.

And a lot more in capital cost.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 63):
The A389 would justify a higher sale price, perhaps even per seat due to its superior CASM. Could cost them less to build the 4 A389s and make them more profit. What you have posted is not an axiom, but it is likely if the A389 is a low volume aircraft as expected.

Without access to Airbus numbers there is no way for us to know but I'm having problems seeing the margin on an -900 being so much better that by selling 4 you make more profit than by selling 5 x -800, but I would expect the average -900 profit to be higher than the average -800 margin.

Topic: RE: Another 30 A380 For EK?
Username: thegeek
Posted 2013-01-09 21:26:38 and read 2499 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 65):
Without access to Airbus numbers there is no way for us to know but I'm having problems seeing the margin on an -900 being so much better that by selling 4 you make more profit than by selling 5 x -800, but I would expect the average -900 profit to be higher than the average -800 margin.

On the other hand, I think you'd have problems making the business case for the -900 work if the profit per seat for Airbus wasn't close to the -800.

[Edited 2013-01-09 21:28:33]


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