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Topic: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: flood
Posted 2013-01-09 14:31:50 and read 14987 times.

Looks like LionAir is shopping for a few more planes 

“Lion Air is said to have finalised a large order of A320neos before the end of the year [2012],” the paper said on Wednesday, adding that the order may be for as many as 220 planes."
http://www.english.rfi.fr/asia-pacif...s-lion-air-order-over-200-airbuses

(credit to Leeham for posting the link via twitter)

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-09 14:34:09 and read 14959 times.

Been rumored for some time for their Malindo Air operation.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-09 14:37:14 and read 14944 times.

Yes this seemingly has been in works already for a while with the CEO last year stating they were seriously considering the NEO.

I note you started the same thread back then....

Lion Air Considering A320neo Order (by flood Nov 27 2012 in Civil Aviation)

=

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-01-09 14:39:19 and read 14917 times.

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
Looks like LionAir is shopping for a few more planes

So with 239 B737's ordered (mostly 737-MAX) and most likely up to 220 A320-NEO's, they show a spectacular growth. The numbers by themselves are incredible. But good for all involved if this order is indeed finalized.  .

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: wingman
Posted 2013-01-09 14:41:21 and read 14883 times.

I will go out on a limb and guarantee that Boeing did not win the 2012 orders race. Between this and the EK order they'll pip Boeing by just enough.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2013-01-09 14:45:20 and read 14801 times.

Airbus has said nothing about any JT order in the 9 Jan. 2013 press release page. They only talk about the 5 X A-320NEOs and 5 X A-321NEOs for ME was signed today.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...r-for-ten-a320neo-family-aircraft/

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pressreleases/

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: flood
Posted 2013-01-09 14:46:55 and read 14771 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
I note you started the same thread back then....

Indeed I did. But all initial reports indicated they were looking to possibly purchase "only" additional 100 aircraft. I never anticipated such a potentially large order given the number of 737s they already have coming as well.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: flood
Posted 2013-01-09 14:51:15 and read 14706 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
Airbus has said nothing about any JT order in the 9 Jan. 2013 press release page. They only talk about the 5 X A-320NEOs and 5 X A-321NEOs for ME was signed today.

I indicated in the the title it was according to the report. It's not a firm order announced by Airbus and I don't believe they release their final 2012 until the 17th (?) of this month.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2013-01-09 15:08:43 and read 14535 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 4):
I will go out on a limb and guarantee that Boeing did not win the 2012 orders race. Between this and the EK order they'll pip Boeing by just enough.

That limb is about to be cut off from under you. Neither this order, nor any EK order for A-380s are firm. EK is only "considering" ordering 30 more A-388s. They have not ordered them, yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rjumbos-for-network-expansion.html

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-09 15:43:30 and read 14312 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 4):
I will go out on a limb and guarantee that Boeing did not win the 2012 orders race. Between this and the EK order they'll pip Boeing by just enough.

Even if EK and Malindo Air placed those orders in 2012, it would still only be around half of what Airbus needed at the end of November to match, much less exceed, Boeing.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: flood
Posted 2013-01-09 16:02:04 and read 14187 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
Even if EK and Malindo Air placed those orders in 2012, it would still only be around half of what Airbus needed at the end of November to match, much less exceed, Boeing.

Agree, it's completely unrealistic... Boeing has an insurmountable lead.

I do anticipate the Lion Air order to be firmed, however. But there too we don't know what the order would entail. With the 220 figure floating around, I could just as easily see 120 + 100 options in the works. For them to order another 200+ firm aircraft would be incredible, regardless of Malindo... in both a positive and negative sense.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Chiad
Posted 2013-01-09 16:20:17 and read 14083 times.

Woh ... just another 200 frames.
 
Cant wait to see if this is confirmed!

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: rotating14
Posted 2013-01-09 17:31:32 and read 13758 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 4):

My arithmetic may slightly off but Airbus would need almost need to bag 600 planes to be tied with Boeing.

Back to topic though, with Boeing increasing their assembly rate and Airbuses keeping even, relatively, why would Lion Air jump ship? I doubt A needs to discount the NEO at all if it selling so well. Must be something else.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-09 17:34:21 and read 13742 times.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 12):
Back to topic though, with Boeing increasing their assembly rate and Airbuses keeping even, relatively, why would Lion Air jump ship?

Airbus may have better availability for the neo than Boeing for the MAX (EIS is at least a year earlier, so that's some 400-500 extra deliveries) and/or Lion Air just wants to spread things between both OEMs.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: rotating14
Posted 2013-01-09 17:39:03 and read 13720 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):

So should this materialize, the NEO would be sold out until when?

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: sxf24
Posted 2013-01-09 17:49:52 and read 13677 times.

I really wonder how Lion Air will finance all of these planes. No bank or lessor is willing to have such significant exposure to one customer. Even an airline as successful as Emirates has to work very hard to find enough financing.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: migair54
Posted 2013-01-09 23:25:11 and read 13238 times.

What I really wonder is if they will find place to "park" all this planes, Jakarta Airport and many other airport in the Area are very busy and i´m not sure if the infrastructure will develop as fast as Lion Air, Wings Air, Citilink, Air Asia and other are developing their networks and fleets....

Anyway, it´s very good news for Airbus and Lion Air.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: airboe
Posted 2013-01-09 23:40:26 and read 13171 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
Airbus may have better availability for the neo than Boeing for the MAX (EIS is at least a year earlier, so that's some 400-500 extra deliveries) and/or Lion Air just wants to spread things between both OEMs

  

Further has it been reported, that the "sale and lease back rates" for the A321 is a lot more appealing than for the B739, - this could be another reason.

KR

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: SKAirbus
Posted 2013-01-10 00:32:05 and read 12906 times.

Seems to be a common strategy.. Ordering from one manufacturer leads to over reliance.. Look at Ryanair now. They have pretty much burnt their bridges with Boeing by being such ****s and have no fall back. DY ordered a large number of NEOs as well as 738s.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: UA735WL
Posted 2013-01-10 06:18:33 and read 10125 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 10):

Let us not forget that while Boeing HAS sold a huge amount of 737s this year, in terms of total orders, the MAX still trails the NEO by around 500 orders.


Also, did Airbus give Lionair a discount on this order? I know they have been chasing this order since last year?

[Edited 2013-01-10 06:21:10]

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Chiad
Posted 2013-01-10 06:25:17 and read 10046 times.

Quoting UA735WL (Reply 19):
Let us not forget that while Boeing HAS sold a huge amount of 737s this year, in terms of total orders, the MAX still trails the NEO by around 500 orders.

Better make that 600 .. on the spot ..., not inculded this order.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: queb
Posted 2013-01-10 06:36:11 and read 9903 times.

Quoting UA735WL (Reply 19):
Also, did Airbus give Lionair a discount on this order? I know they have been chasing this order since last year?

No, they will surely pay the catalog price   

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-10 07:29:44 and read 9369 times.

Quoting sxf24 (Reply 15):
I really wonder how Lion Air will finance all of these planes.

Perhaps Airbus is offering support in that area and that helped them choose the neo instead of taking additional MAX.



Quoting airboe (Reply 17):
Further has it been reported, that the "sale and lease back rates" for the A321 is a lot more appealing than for the B739, - this could be another reason.

The 737NG family has slightly higher average values and lease rates than the A320 family so one should expect sale and leaseback rates to be slightly higher for the 737-900ER.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-01-10 09:45:08 and read 8231 times.

It amazes me that an airline with 93 planes can secure financing commitments for over 500 on order. That is a lot of capital. Unless Airbus is willing to take orders without any credit (which is possible), and small deposits, I just simply don't see where the money is coming from. It sounds like an incredibly risky investment to offer this much credit to a company that is only 13 years old and is committed to 500% expansion.

Maybe it is my American mind that makes me see that as unrealistic. We've seen investors jump into Southeast Asia before. I am just amazed creditors are willing to back both Air Asia and Lion Air's 500% expansion plans. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can reflect on if the market is actually growing at that rate or we will end up in a bubble with overcapacity.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: United885
Posted 2013-01-10 10:19:19 and read 7886 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
It amazes me that an airline with 93 planes can secure financing commitments for over 500 on order.

That amazed me too. The question for me is, where should they be based in the futur? I don´t think that CGK can handle a fleet with the size of about 500 aircrafts...

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-10 10:47:14 and read 8053 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
It sounds like an incredibly risky investment to offer this much credit to a company that is only 13 years old and is committed to 500% expansion.

Air Asia is 16 years old and they have 100 planes in service and almost another 400 on order and yet I don't recall the same level of skepticism about them staying in business over the long term.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: tommy525
Posted 2013-01-10 10:47:53 and read 8003 times.

Perhaps the Airlines have a new strategy. Talk huge numbers and get the per unit for way less. The game then becomes whether they get delivered ! But in any case the per unit cost is way lower then if they talked 20 planes instead of 200.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: packsonflight
Posted 2013-01-10 16:02:12 and read 6376 times.

Quoting tommy525 (Reply 26):
Perhaps the Airlines have a new strategy. Talk huge numbers and get the per unit for way less. The game then becomes whether they get delivered ! But in any case the per unit cost is way lower then if they talked 20 planes instead of 200.

On top of that the leasing companies are out of the game.

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: mandala499
Posted 2013-01-12 07:53:28 and read 5765 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Been rumored for some time for their Malindo Air operation.

Rumors inside at the moment is that this Airbus order will not be for Malindo, Batik, nor Lion Air.
More likely is that the orders will be for 3rd party leases.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
It amazes me that an airline with 93 planes can secure financing commitments for over 500 on order.

The amount laid out on order is no more 15% anyway. It's just a slot booking and a price agreement with a small deposit.
Lion now has 90-100 aircraft in Lion and Wings... with the classics on the way out, and the oldest 900ERs quite worn out... they won't be operating 500 aircraft in one go in Indonesia alone!   

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-12 08:03:22 and read 5661 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 28):
Rumors inside at the moment is that this Airbus order will not be for Malindo, Batik, nor Lion Air. More likely is that the orders will be for 3rd party leases.

So Lion Air is getting into the leasing business?

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Hamlet69
Posted 2013-01-12 08:13:26 and read 5608 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
So Lion Air is getting into the leasing business?

They're not the first airline to do so. And they won't be the last, either. . .  


Hamlet69

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-01-12 08:13:52 and read 5619 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
The 737NG family has slightly higher average values and lease rates than the A320 family so one should expect sale and leaseback rates to be slightly higher for the 737-900ER.

If this is even remotely relevant in a contest between the NEO and the MAX I'd be amazed. Availability is almost certainly far more likely to be the underlying factor

Rgds

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-12 08:23:50 and read 5581 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 31):
If this is even remotely relevant in a contest between the NEO and the MAX I'd be amazed.


Well I wrote that only to provide a contrasting opinion to the original statement by airboe.

As to how relevant they are to the new models coming out, I would not be surprised if they had more then minimal relevance. Airbus is making minimal changes between the Classic and the neo and while Boeing will be doing more with the MAX compared to the NG, it's not a wholesale level of change. So because the main difference between the older models and the newer ones are the engines, I would expect lessors and aircraft valuers to be using Classic and NG numbers in their initial models. Once the new models are in service and their relative economics are known, then the models would be updated appropriately.



Quoting astuteman (Reply 31):
Availability is almost certainly far more likely to be the underlying factor.

Please refer to Reply 13.  

[Edited 2013-01-12 08:38:50]

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-01-12 10:19:16 and read 5285 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
Unless Airbus is willing to take orders without any credit (which is possible), and small deposits, I just simply don't see where the money is coming from. It sounds like an incredibly risky investment to offer this much credit to a company that is only 13 years old and is committed to 500% expansion.

In Airbus's defence, this is territory that is being well trodden by Boeing first........

Rgds

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: mandala499
Posted 2013-01-13 20:59:13 and read 4527 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
So Lion Air is getting into the leasing business?

One well known inside source in Lion Air gorup has said such... but it won't be Lion Air itself, but a company by Lion Air's CEO. Several other sources here said similar things, and those who are inside Lion Air generally said, "No... Airbuses? Don't think so... we still got God knows how many NGs and Max coming... not another type please!"

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 23):
Unless Airbus is willing to take orders without any credit (which is possible), and small deposits, I just simply don't see where the money is coming from.

Actually, both Airbus and Boeing are playing the same game here with Air Asia and Lion Air... The race between Airbus and Boeing for the narrowbodies is such that basically both are saying, "Just book the slots and lock in the price, get someone to finance the pre-delivery-finance, and finance the aircraft as well... we'll help with the cashflow projections too for you to assist in getting the finance..." At the end of the day, what's confirmed is only those who has the hull construction deposits properly paid for... the rest are just 'commitments'... The old terms of "firm and options" have now blurred a bit.... It makes good PR though   

Topic: RE: Lion Air To Order Over 200 A320neo - Report
Username: Lutfi
Posted 2013-01-13 21:58:39 and read 4422 times.

Yep, Lion Air group has an in house leasing firm based in Singapore, so far though have only been leasing to themselves


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