Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5656476/

Topic: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-10 06:18:21 and read 15642 times.

Flight global reports that BA are leasing 2 77W from ALC, for delivery in May/June 2014:

British Airways to lease 777s from ALC

It is unclear however if these are additional frames, or confirmation of lease contracts for the remaining aircraft on order.

Previous information says that the 4 frames currently on order are due Q3 2013 and 2014, plus these additional aircraft bring the fleet numbers in line with that announced in IAG 2015 Fleet Plan. It appears they are new orders then. Anyone confirm?

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: AIR MALTA
Posted 2013-01-10 08:36:30 and read 15058 times.

Good news then. BA needs to accelerate the retirment of those old 744 as the hard product is getting outdated in comparaison with the competition.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: DFWHeavy
Posted 2013-01-10 08:57:48 and read 14899 times.

VikingA346 would know.


Are these new orders or part of an older order? What are the total number of 77Ws to be in the BA fleet by 2015?

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-10 09:03:18 and read 14839 times.

ALC placed the original order in 2011...

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: United885
Posted 2013-01-10 09:09:07 and read 14794 times.

BA actually operates six 77W and has four on order. With the two additional frames, the total number will grow to 12.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: vhtje
Posted 2013-01-10 09:23:13 and read 14659 times.

Is there a particular reason why is BA leasing these aircraft and not purchasing them?

I understood IAG's cash position to be quite healthy.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: LHRFlyer
Posted 2013-01-10 09:33:40 and read 14588 times.

Quoting vhtje (Reply 5):
Is there a particular reason why is BA leasing these aircraft and not purchasing them?

I understood IAG's cash position to be quite healthy.

Most likely for flexibility before deciding on the long term replacement for the 747 fleet.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: anstar
Posted 2013-01-10 10:05:55 and read 14313 times.

Quoting vhtje (Reply 5):
Is there a particular reason why is BA leasing these aircraft and not purchasing them?

Probably because they don't plan on keeping them after the 10 year lease.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-10 10:10:16 and read 14254 times.

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 2):
What are the total number of 77Ws to be in the BA fleet by 2015?

Fleet plan said 58 777 family. Current breakdown is:

3 772
43 77E
6 77W (4 on order)

= 52 + 4 = 56

These extra 2 would then make it 58.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: BA0197
Posted 2013-01-10 10:29:36 and read 14122 times.

Is the 77W schedule for S13 known? I know about SYD. What about JFK, IAH, ORD, HKG?

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-10 11:19:29 and read 13838 times.

Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow. BA has over 50 744's and only 12 A380's coming. Where are the other 38 planes ? It would seem 77W are going to be a good part of those.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: United885
Posted 2013-01-10 11:38:08 and read 13694 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow. BA has over 50 744's and only 12 A380's coming. Where are the other 38 planes ? It would seem 77W are going to be a good part of those.

They have also 24 Dreamliners on order.
For the futur I can inmagine, that BA uses either their A380´s or 77W´s for high frequentented destinations and OneWorld hubs and their 772´s together with the new introduced 787´s for other destinations. Perhaps they will reduce the number of flights to important destinations if they are served by A380´s and former by 747´s and perhaps they will raise the number of flights to a destination which are now by 747´s and in the futur by 787´s.
I think also, that BA will order more 77W´s when they are approved in the fleet.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: DFWHeavy
Posted 2013-01-10 11:52:58 and read 13593 times.

Hindsight is 20/20.. they should have ordered about 40 copies of the 77W 4-5 years ago.

They would be a helluva airline today.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: summa767
Posted 2013-01-10 12:05:37 and read 13511 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow. BA has over 50 744's and only 12 A380's coming. Where are the other 38 planes ? It would seem 77W are going to be a good part of those.

I am sure there will be a big order for BA and IB soon. I would expect A350s, and a top up of A380s and 787s -perhaps 787-10s more 787-9s.
It would not be wise to order a huge number of 77W that will burden them in the future when more efficient aircraft are the ones to have at that time.
Good to see more 77W that should allow BA to have some modest expansion and retire 744s whilst the next generation a/c are incorporated.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-01-10 12:35:19 and read 13326 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow.

Because the 77W fleet was only seen as 'interim lift' until their new planes were available in sufficient numbers. The fact they have shortish leases is a clue.

My expectation is that BA will order more A380s and either A350-1000s or 77Xs.

Quoting summa767 (Reply 13):
It would not be wise to order a huge number of 77W that will burden them in the future when more efficient aircraft are the ones to have at that time.

  

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-10 12:59:10 and read 13202 times.

I am not sure BA have the money. Remember that Bob Ayling rolled over the entire long haul fleet in ten years which is why it's all gotten old, there's just so much of it to replace all at the same time.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: AIR MALTA
Posted 2013-01-10 13:12:43 and read 13005 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 15):

Air France has managed to modernize its fleet quite well.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: KaiTak747
Posted 2013-01-10 13:25:26 and read 12760 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):

Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow. BA has over 50 744's and only 12 A380's coming. Where are the other 38 planes ? It would seem 77W are going to be a good part of those.

777-8X. This would leave them with A380, 777-8X, 787-8/9 as their future long haul fleet (a long way down the road).

BA use aircraft from new all the way to max hours and cycles, so some of the 747s (I think the youngest is about 14 years old) will be around until after 2020. The next big fleet change will be the 787 replacing 767s almost one for one.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-10 13:43:41 and read 12453 times.

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 12):
Hindsight is 20/20.. they should have ordered about 40 copies of the 77W 4-5 years ago.

They weren't in the best place remember? Tough times even before the 2008 crash.
Air France is wildly loss making and a semi-arm of the French state..... Comparing BA to Air France is and always has been comparing apples and pears.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-10 13:50:20 and read 12333 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow.

Because the 77W fleet was only seen as 'interim lift' until their new planes were available in sufficient numbers. The fact they have shortish leases is a clue.

Cathay and Air Canada have leased new 777 for 12 years, BA's 10 years is NOT "interim". That is how long its going to take to get 777-9 in large enough numbers.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-01-10 14:07:30 and read 12053 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 19):
That is how long its going to take to get 777-9 in large enough numbers.

So, they lease 77Ws to tide them over until an alternative is available? That would seem to be the very definition of an interim solution.  Wink

It runs completely contrary to BA's normal fleet strategy.

[Edited 2013-01-10 14:08:34]

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-10 14:18:39 and read 11854 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 19):
Cathay and Air Canada have leased new 777 for 12 years

True but Air Canada's are all 333ERs and Cathay's are all -367ERs.
BA has a mix of 336ERs and 36NERs.

Of course that may not mean anything whatsoever (!)

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: APYu
Posted 2013-01-10 14:23:50 and read 11762 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 20):

I guess BAs normal fleet strategy is defined by the COO at the time? Hence the different approaches we have seen over the last 20+ years.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-10 14:26:05 and read 11700 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 20):
It runs completely contrary to BA's normal fleet strategy.

Normal fleet strategies aren't the way to go though. The economy and industry changes and you have to adapt your strategies accordingly. If they were working off the same strategies from the 80s/90s, I'd be worried.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-01-10 14:39:37 and read 11520 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 21):
True but Air Canada's are all 333ERs and Cathay's are all -367ERs

Can you explain what the difference is,please.?

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: NorthStarDC4M
Posted 2013-01-10 15:07:04 and read 11676 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 21):
True but Air Canada's are all 333ERs and Cathay's are all -367ERs.
BA has a mix of 336ERs and 36NERs.

Of course that may not mean anything whatsoever (!)

Those are just Boeing customer codes... by themselves they means nothing other than who originally ordered the aircraft.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: jumpjets
Posted 2013-01-10 15:48:31 and read 11269 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 21):
BA has a mix of 336ERs and 36NERs

I guess that as the BA lease arrangements are in place before the planes are actually built the coding differences don't matter too much as BA could ensure the fitting out of the 36NERs be the same as their own 336ERs so there should be no physical difference between the two types.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-10 16:05:49 and read 11489 times.

They're physically identical it's just a technicality sometimes. Emirates -36NERs are mixed in with the rest of the fleet.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-01-10 16:16:45 and read 11283 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 27):
They're physically identical it's just a technicality sometimes. Emirates -36NERs are mixed in with the rest of the fleet

The only variant that I am aware of is one with a higher MTOW of which EK own a few. I beleive this is achieved with a software change .

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: N1120A
Posted 2013-01-10 16:53:25 and read 10927 times.

Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 1):
Good news then. BA needs to accelerate the retirment of those old 744 as the hard product is getting outdated in comparaison with the competition.

Um - BA could just put a newer hard product in the 744.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-10 17:00:14 and read 10885 times.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 29):
Um - BA could just put a newer hard product in the 744.

They did in FIRST. Looks pretty darn nice, too, based on the pictures.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: VV701
Posted 2013-01-10 18:05:01 and read 10392 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10):
Why doesn't BA order or lease a whole new fleet of 77W's, this drip of 2, 3 or 4 per year is too slow. BA has over 50 744's and only 12 A380's coming. Where are the other 38 planes ?

BA's youngest 744 was delivered in April 1999. And it has 12 other 744s that are no more than a year older than this youngest ship. Recognising that BA policy over the years has been to operate its long haul aircraft for their effective passenger carrying lives then this aircraft and its sister ships can be assumed to have at least five, more likely 8 to 10 and perhaps 12 more years of BA service left in them. So there is little urgency to order replacements for the whole BA operational fleet of 52 744s.

Here it is worth noting that given an equal BA life span, BA have three 772As and 10 777ERs that are all older than their thirteen youngest 744s mentioned above.

If you look at their current order book it includes 24 787s in addition to the 390s. Of these 21 will be used to replace their 763s. I think the other three are likely to replace the three 772As.

The first batch of 777Ws ordered on 7 August 2008 was a mix of 777 336ER and 36NER aircraft. These aircraft were ordered because of the late delivery of the 787s. All of the 787 8s were originally scheduled for delivery between August 2010 and February 2011 and the first 787 9 was scheduled to arrive in the UK in June 2011 with others to follow closely behind. It was widely reported that BA obtained favourable terms from Boeing on both the pricing and delivery of this first order for 777Ws. It was thought that the mix of 2 336s purchased and 4 36Ns leased from GECAS was implemented because Boeing provided the early delivery positions for the bought aircraft while GECAS already had the delivery positions for the leased aircraft from an order placed in 2007.

Four additional 777Ws were subsequently ordered. Options on these aircraft were taken out with the original six-aircraft order. These four aircraft are scheduled for delivery in September and November of this year and September and November of 2014. As the two additional aircraft identified by Flight Global are scheduled for delivery through Air Lease in May and June 2014 and were ordered in August 2011 I am guessing that BA are leasing the aircraft to obtain early delivery and that they may well be used for route expansion (rather than as 744 replacements). If this is correct I do not think they would not have been ordered if IAG had not bought BD. I believe that BA's future planned use of BD's LHR slots is crucial here.

The 10 year agreement with Air Lease may or may not be indicative of BA's plans. My own feeling, however, is that in the current economic climate planning even as fart as 10 years ahead is nearing impossible. So when negotiating a lease on new aircraft there is a fine balancing act between the cost of the lease and planning flexibility. The annual lease cost will fall as the contract lengthens. And operational flexibility will also fall as the contract lengthens. However any lease can always be extended if required by the operator. So I do not think we should draw too many conclusions from the ten-year term.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: FI642
Posted 2013-01-10 19:30:12 and read 9784 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 28):
The only variant that I am aware of is one with a higher MTOW of which EK own a few. I beleive this is achieved with a software change .

Correct. Maximum engine thrust can be adjusted through software. Lower maximum thrust means
longer engine life, well at least in theory.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: AIR MALTA
Posted 2013-01-11 01:34:26 and read 8054 times.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 29):
Um - BA could just put a newer hard product in the 744.

BA has not plans of retro fitting their 744. I was in the the refurbished B767 G-BNWB and for a non aviation enthusiast, the aircraft seemed new. Many of the people I know that fly BA to LAX complain that the cabins look tired. BA should then make an effort on those 744s that will still be used for the many years to come.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: GSTBA
Posted 2013-01-11 02:52:06 and read 7541 times.

Quoting BA0197 (Reply 9):
Is the 77W schedule for S13 known? I know about SYD. What about JFK, IAH, ORD, HKG?

S13 77W ops based on the schedule for 03-09 JUN13:


BA005/BA006 - LHR-NRT-LHR (Daily)
BA015/BA016 - LHR-SIN-SYD-SIN-LHR (Daily)
BA169/BA168 - LHR-PVG-LHR (Thu-Mon)
BA179/BA182 - LHR-JFK-LHR (Sun - Fri)


This information is of course subject to further change.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-11 15:18:12 and read 5943 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 31):
Recognising that BA policy over the years has been to operate its long haul aircraft for their effective passenger carrying lives then this aircraft and its sister ships can be assumed to have at least five, more likely 8 to 10 and perhaps 12 more years of BA service left in them. So there is little urgency to order replacements for the whole BA operational fleet of 52 744s.

High fuel prices may well affect that historic BA policy. It's more critical on longhaul routes like those operated by the 744s since fuel is a higher percentage of operating costs on those routes. If your competitors are using much more fuel-efficient aircraft you have a problem if your operating costs are significantly higher since you have to offer competitive fares.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: VV701
Posted 2013-01-12 07:02:10 and read 5518 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 35):
If your competitors are using much more fuel-efficient aircraft you have a problem if your operating costs are significantly higher since you have to offer competitive fares.

The important word here is "if" in "if your operating costs are significantly higher".

The question is whether or not the operating costs of flying a new, very expensive, fuel-efficient aircraft will enable you to offer competitive fares to those offered by a competitor operating a fully depreciated, fuel-inefficient, older aircraft.

The new aircraft might have a list price of, say $315,000,000. The old aircraft when purchased 20 or more years ago would have had a list price of less than half this figure. More importantly it will now be depreciated to a value at or below its salvage value. So its operator has no depreciation costs

On the other hand the operator of the new aircraft will have annual depreciation costs of $15,000,000 or more even if its aircraft never ever flies. However if we assume that both operators fly their aircraft for an average of 4,500 hrs a year, the operator of the new aircraft will need to SAVE more than $3,000 per flying hour in fuel costs to be able to offer fares competitive with the operator of the old aircraft.

But all of this ignores the probability that the operator of the old aircraft is likely to experience both maintenance and refurbishment costs that the operator of the new aircraft would not.

One thing we can be sure of is that depreciation or capital costs will not ever fall over the life of an aircraft. So the operator of the old aircraft has a capital operating cost advantage for the operating life of its aircraft. What we cannot be sure of is whether the cost of fuel over the life of an aircraft will rise, on average remain the same or fall. So future changes in the price of fuel could work in favour of the operator of the new aircraft or the operator of the old aircraft.

What we might conclude is that your "if" is a very significant "if". It certainly does not preclude the operator of the old aircraft having lower or similar total operating costs to those of the operator of the new aircraft. I suspect that the determinant as to whether or not it is economical to operate an old aircraft will be maintenance and refurbishment costs and neither fuel cost nor capital cost savings. But I may be wrong.

I do think it would be erroneous at this time to conclude that BA will not operate any of its long-haul aircraft as long as it has in the past. Indeed I would point out that its oldest 763 will be at least 24 years old before it can be retired later this year and that its oldest operatiional 744 is also past its 23rd birthday. So there is strong evidence that their past policies on long-haul aircraft retirement have not changed. However the BA financial performance is well within the upper quartile of all major international airlines.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-12 13:19:53 and read 5147 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 36):
The new aircraft might have a list price of, say $315,000,000. The old aircraft when purchased 20 or more years ago would have had a list price of less than half this figure.

Yes, but with inflation, $150 million 20 years ago is equivalent to well over $300 million today.

BA may be an exception but most major 744 operators have either already retired them or are have plans to do so and are significantly reducing the number in service and quickly replacing them with more fuel-efficient types.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: BA174
Posted 2013-01-12 13:49:02 and read 5090 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 36):

G-BNLE and most of the other older 744s I would say are long since paid for meaning that they have a slight edge over newer aircraft in that they cost BA nothing other than fuel and maintenance.

I believe that's a primary reason why the 734s are still flying.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-12 17:25:15 and read 4839 times.

So to be clear, they have six more B77Ws to come? G-STBG/H/I/J/K/L one assumes?

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-13 04:24:38 and read 4487 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 39):
So to be clear, they have six more B77Ws to come? G-STBG/H/I/J/K/L one assumes?

The thread seems to have diverged a bit, with no confirmed answer to the original question, but that is what I would currently assume, with the following deliveries:

G-STBG - Due September 2013
G-STBH - Due November 2013
G-STBI - Due May 2014
G-STBJ - Due June 2014
G-STBK - Due September 2014
G-STBL - Due November 2014

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-13 05:38:43 and read 4375 times.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 31):
BA's youngest 744 was delivered in April 1999. And it has 12 other 744s that are no more than a year older than this youngest ship. Recognising that BA policy over the years has been to operate its long haul aircraft for their effective passenger carrying lives then this aircraft and its sister ships can be assumed to have at least five, more likely 8 to 10 and perhaps 12 more years of BA service left in them. So there is little urgency to order replacements for the whole BA operational fleet of 52 744s.

I appreciate that a few BA Jumbos will be around until 2020 but the facts are still the facts, only 12 A380 have been ordered. The 787 are 767 replacements, if the 13 744 delivered in 1999 and the 12 A380 are around in 8 years then 27 744's still need to be replaced, where are the 20 77W's to replace them ? 20 because BA has about 8 77W's already.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: JerseyFlyer
Posted 2013-01-13 05:43:35 and read 4351 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 41):
where are the 20 77W's to replace them ?

I am expecting a top up A380 order to coincide with the first A380 delivery.

And something to bridge the 789 - 388 gap, either A359 / 10 or 7810.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-13 05:52:28 and read 4331 times.

Currently there are 14 long haul B767-300ERs but 24 B787s coming. Is that right? The seven short haul B763s aren't being replaced by B787s.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-13 07:14:14 and read 4164 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 43):
Currently there are 14 long haul B767-300ERs but 24 B787s coming. Is that right? The seven short haul B763s aren't being replaced by B787s.

By 2015 there will be 7 longhaul 767 left plus an unknown amount of shorthaul ones - the overall shorthaul fleet is due to be cut from 40 (19 737, 14 E-jet, 7 767) to 26. Given that the shorthaul 767 have undergone refits its unlikely they'll be cut.

With 8 787-8 replacing the longhaul 767, there will also be 4 787-9 in the fleet - although I'm sceptical about this and maybe BA are too which is why they're keeping the other 767s on. As mentioned before earlier, I think when the
787-9s are at full strength, I think we will see the 772As going.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-13 08:16:45 and read 4031 times.

Can someone confirm the current B787 orders and options position without using Wiki....

Jethro has 24 orders and 18 options. Is this accurate? WIki has this as 8 x B787-8 and 16 x B787-9.
Is that accurate?

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: 817Dreamliiner
Posted 2013-01-13 08:24:09 and read 4015 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 45):
Can someone confirm the current B787 orders and options position without using Wiki....

From Boeing's website:

British Airways (United Kingdom)
Model
Series Eng First Order Orders Deliveries Unfilled First Delivery
787-8 RR 24-Dec-2007 8 - 8 -
787-9 RR 24-Dec-2007 16 - 16 -
Subtotal 24 - 24

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...pageid=m25065&RequestTimeout=20000

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-13 08:36:41 and read 3983 times.

IAG Capital Markets presentation:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External...YxMzc4fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

It puts 12 deliveries by 2015 (no split given) and 12 after plus 28 option/purchase rights.

Also has 9 A380 by 2015, 3 after plus 7 options/purchase rights.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: tonyflyboi
Posted 2013-01-13 08:52:57 and read 3959 times.

After reading about BA 744 and 777A
may i just point out that G-ZZZC has just been totally refurbished with new First AVOD IFE and new world traveller and traveller plus seats

rumors has it that ZA ZB will be done in the very near future as with 17 first class Ba has no problem in filled them ex London

also the youngest 744 G-BYGA-GG are to have the new world traveller seats installed as these are to be with us till 2020

BA are very short of wide body jet at present

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: VV701
Posted 2013-01-13 12:07:37 and read 3743 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 37):
Yes, but with inflation, $150 million 20 years ago is equivalent to well over $300 million today.

Exactly.

So a 19 year old aircraft bought for $150 million and being depreciated at 5 per cent per annum will incur a depreciatiuon cost of $7.5 million per year in today's dollars or (with a 4,500 hrs per year utilisation) $1,667 per flying hour. Of course that depreciation of $7.5 million is numerically exactly the same as it was 19 years ago but in real terms is very much less.

But a one year old aircraft bought for well over $300 million and being depreciated at 5 per cent per annum will today incur a depreciation cost of well over $15 million per year (with a 4,500 hrs per year utilisation) well over $3,333 per flying hour.

So if the extra fuel burnt by the older aircraft does not cost well over $1,667 more than the fuel burnt by the new aircaft the operator of the new aircraft will , to borrow a phrase, "have a problem".

Much worse, the following year the older aircraft will be fully depreciated so there will be no charge from the capital account against the operating costs of the aircraft to its operator's accounts. So then the operator of the new aircraft "will have a problem" unless the value of the extra fuel burnt by its competitors older aircraft cost well over $3,333 for each and every hour of flying time.

It is all too easy to overlook the capital costs of operating an airline particularly in an age of escalating or high fuel prices. But the only time an airline can afford to overlook capital costs of a given aircraft is when it has depreciated the book value of that aircraft to a level equivalent to or below the aircraft's salvage value. Today fuel is a very critical part of an airline's total costs. The capital cost of its aircraft always has been and still is a critical part of its costs. Put simply irliners are not cheap.

Very few if any airlines have the cash reserves to pay for a new fleet of very expensive long-haul aircraft. So for an outright purchase of that fleet it is likely that the airline has borrowed a very significant sum. The interest on that loan will also be significant. It may double or even more than double the effective cost of owning the aircraft, depending on how quickly the loan is repaid. So the figures above could underestimate the capital costs by a very significant figure.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: liftsifter
Posted 2013-01-13 13:15:57 and read 3590 times.

I don't see why BA don't upgrade 744's to the new World Traveler and WTP cabins. It wouldn't be an insane cost, and could potentially keep these birds in the air past 2020. Almost all 744 have New First and all have New Club World.

Speaking of Club World, it's been 6 years, shouldn't BA be preparing a new product around now? The current product is great, but lags far behind the offering on other airlines.

Topic: RE: BA To Lease Two 77W From ALC
Username: VV701
Posted 2013-01-14 09:59:39 and read 3129 times.

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 50):
I don't see why BA don't upgrade 744's to the new World Traveler and WTP cabins.

Except for some brand new 744s that were delivered from PAE to CBG where Marshalls of Cambridge fitted BA's first generation lie-flat seats around twelve years ago, BA have carried out the furbishment and refurbishment of all their aircraft themselves over the last fifteen years or more, Currently they are refurbishing their short-haul 763 fleet at LGW and, more relevantly, both half their long-haul 763 and the oldest 17 of their 772 fleet at CWL.

So there are two issues:

1. Have BA the current refurbishment capacity to take on a third long-hal aircraft refurbishment programme. The answer may be "No".

2. Have BA sufficient spare long-haul aircraft to simultaneously have a 763, a 772 and a 744 out of service being refurbished while they continue to carry out routine maintenance. As they are (slowly) adding new long haul services using the ex-BD LHR slots (such as LHR-ICN) the answer here may also be "No" at least for the time being.

For most of their refurbishment programmes, including all those mentioned above, each aircraft has been out of service for about four weeks. The seventh of the seven long-haul 763s to be refurbished - the other seven in the fleet will be replaced by the 787s that start arriving (hopefully) this summer - is currently at CWL having the new W and Y Class cabins fitted.

It is unusual for BA to have two long-haul refurbishment programmes running side by side. But I suppose one possibility is that when the last 763 returns to service next month BA could start a 744 W and Y cabin refurbishment programme. But my own guess is that they will not start such a programmeat the earliest until after the all the 772s are refurbished.

I believe - but am not sure - that the twelfth 772 is currently being refurbished. So perhaps in six months or so we may see those 744s that will not be replaced by 380s in the immediate future having their W and Y cabins refurbished.

Here it is worth noting that BA have installed the J Class seats in all their new aircraft (744s, 772s and 77Ws) since they launched their first generation lie-flat seats. So the best possibility may be once BA have actually got at least two or three 380s in service they could look at refurbishing the 744 W and Y Cabins. If the 380s are delivered with all seats fitted this could be around October or November. But it would be November or December if they fit out one or more of the 380 cabins themselves. I say this because BA could then launch new long haul services using ex-BD slots for the Winter Timetable and not leave themselves on a knife edge in terms of back-up capacity.

I do think they will refurbish the W and Y Cabins of some of their 744s. But we will have to wait and see.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/