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Topic: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: joost
Posted 2013-01-22 04:03:31 and read 32515 times.

Per Bloomberg, Swiss' CEO Harry Homeister says LX is in the process of choosing a replacement for their A340-300 aircraft. They are considering the 748, 777 and A350.

Quote:
“We want to substitute our A340 fleet at some point,” he said in an interview in Frankfurt, where Lufthansa has its hub. “We’d rather grow with bigger planes. For Swiss, the A380 is hardly an option, but we’ll look at the Boeing 747-8 and 777 and the Airbus A350. We’ll have to see what makes sense.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...de-following-parent-lufthansa.html

Personally, I think the A350 might be a more logical choice, as it offers full flight deck commonality with their (very new) fleet of A330-300s. But Boeing might of course be very willing in offering an attractive package for the 747-8, and LX of course has full insight in the experiences of LH with the airframe.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-01-22 04:24:18 and read 32357 times.

Another carrier where the A380 is just too big, but the 748 is not. I think the outlook for the 748 is greater than many have speculated here on A.net. Great news, if it comes true, for Swiss and Boeing.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: LY777
Posted 2013-01-22 04:26:22 and read 32308 times.

A 777/748 combo would be GREAT for LX!
That would change from their rather boring all-Airbus fleet.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-01-22 04:29:07 and read 32276 times.

The title of the Bloomberg article is a little bit misleading. Swiss is looking at all possible options, including the 777 and the A350, and not the 748 only.

Quote:
“We’d rather grow with bigger planes. For Swiss, the A380 is hardly an option, but we’ll look at the Boeing 747-8 and 777 and the Airbus A350. We’ll have to see what makes sense.”

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-22 04:29:33 and read 32284 times.

Since SWISS is a Lufthansa owned arline the 748 proposal is positive, the 777 probably wouldn't work since LH doesn't fly it. The A350-900 would be the other viable plane, it wouldn't be a big enough increase.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: JerseyFlyer
Posted 2013-01-22 04:33:13 and read 32205 times.

They downsized from 743 to A346 launch order, then via restructuring and LH takeover from that to A343.

Anything bigger than a A3510 is doubtful in my view, A359 most likely.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Someone83
Posted 2013-01-22 04:38:24 and read 32086 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
the 777 probably wouldn't work since LH doesn't fly it.

They do through AeroLogic and soon Lufthansa Cargo

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: scouseflyer
Posted 2013-01-22 04:38:43 and read 32084 times.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 5):
They downsized from 743 to A346 launch order, then via restructuring and LH takeover from that to A343.

Anything bigger than a A3510 is doubtful in my view, A359 most likely.

IIRC LH hasn't ordered either the 787 or A350 yet so I'd consider the A359 or 7810 as the real contenders here.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: bthebest
Posted 2013-01-22 04:40:43 and read 32048 times.

Clearly 748 is very possible given that LH seem to be happy with it - not sure they need that much though.

A359/X may be more likely, but would make sense for LH to cash in on the numbers and begin their A343 replacement as well. Long term planning could see Initial batch of 359 for LX, later 359s for LH and further down the line 35X as 346 replacements. Timeline works well and an order of say 40 A359 and 25 A35X would get a good discount.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ZKOJH
Posted 2013-01-22 04:51:18 and read 31867 times.

Wasn't there a thread on this last year about replacement aircraft for LX ?

I can remember many moons ago flying into Zurich on my way to Innsbruck and see the mighty 747's in Swissair colours sitting on the ground,

Think this is like the TK order everyone got there hopes up for a 748/A380 split and they ordered 777's and A333's.

It comes down to who can offer the best deal, and what kind of time frame are we talking here? and no mention of the 787! (no comment!)

However going with Boeing would bring a new aircraft into the group not just for LX but LH could then be looking at the triple 7 family more when they want to order.

Good luck to all and hope an order happens in 2013....

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: FlyingAY
Posted 2013-01-22 05:06:30 and read 31645 times.

I can't see what the 747-8i would offer to Swiss that A350-1000 would not. Well, availability perhaps?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: runway23
Posted 2013-01-22 05:43:22 and read 31200 times.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 5):
They downsized from 743 to A346 launch order, then via restructuring and LH takeover from that to A343.

You are mixing years up a bit here.

Swissair (not Swiss) flew 743s and was supposed to be the launch customer for the A346.

Swiss, ordered A343s before they became part of the LH group.

The only longhaul fleet strategy change made under LH group, was to remove the 332s from the fleet in favor of 333s.

In a sense, seeing that the 333s now have quite a bit more range than they did before, it would make sense to have a 748 or 77W/346/359 fleet for longer flights (eg. SIN, NRT, LAX, SFO) or those that need more capacity (GRU being at the top of that list).

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-22 06:11:44 and read 30928 times.

I wouldn't be surprised seeing as LH seems to love their 747-8i fleet and sends them to premium-heavy destinations.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-01-22 06:14:24 and read 30870 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 2):
A 777/748 combo would be GREAT for LX!

It's too big IMHO. They only fly A343s and A333s at the minute and the A333s replaced the even smaller A332.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-01-22 06:33:12 and read 30633 times.

Interesting article, but given LX's niche I'd think short-term a 346 most likely (possibly from LH) and a 787 or 350 in the medium term (and those may replace the entire LX longhaul fleet eventually). There were rumors a while back about 346s coming from LH, but I'm not sure how that plays with this recent article.

That said, I still wouldn't be entirely surprised if 77W's showed up, since they would have substantial commonality with the 77F's over at 3S, and a few spare parts in common with the 77E's at OS.

[Edited 2013-01-22 06:46:32]

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: nyswiss
Posted 2013-01-22 06:35:11 and read 30607 times.

This has been extensively discussed before and recently again : Swiss Aviation Thread #31 (by SandroZRH Dec 8 2012 in Civil Aviation)?threadid=5630012&searchid=5667951&s=swiss#ID5667951

From a fleet commonality perspective and based on input of others I would expect a 350 order

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: american 767
Posted 2013-01-22 06:35:37 and read 30602 times.

It would be nice to see another airline ordering the 748. I'm wondering if the customer number 57 will be used again if Swiss chooses Boeing. 57 was Swissair's customer number but since Swiss was born 11 years ago, they bought no Boeing plane at all.

Ben Soriano

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Ronaldo747
Posted 2013-01-22 06:49:39 and read 30405 times.

I'd love to see 747-8s at Swiss. The clear advantage of the 747 is the fast availability, they could even use delivery slots from Lufthansa. But a 77W is more realistic for Swiss. With the exception of maybe JNB they do not need 4-holers anymore.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-22 06:58:26 and read 30284 times.

A Swiss 748I would be awesome. I think the world can live happily without even more 777s or A350s.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-01-22 07:00:48 and read 30234 times.

Quoting american 767 (Reply 16):
It would be nice to see another airline ordering the 748. I'm wondering if the customer number 57 will be used again if Swiss chooses Boeing. 57 was Swissair's customer number but since Swiss was born 11 years ago, they bought no Boeing plane at all.

Ben Soriano

Why not SWISS is the new "Swissair". Its the same employees at SWISS that Swissair had.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-01-22 07:02:45 and read 30150 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 1):
Another carrier where the A380 is just too big, but the 748 is not.

I think there's little to no chance of seeing either because both are simply too big for LX. Do they even have any long haul route where they operate double daily flights? It will be A350's without a doubt.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-01-22 07:19:48 and read 29560 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):

IMHO the only way you would see a 748 in LX colors would be if there were some major shakeup in Star, like if SQ left and LH decided to fill that ultra-premium gap by growing LX in certain markets. I'm not saying that has any chance, but that's the only type of scenario I see a 748 for LX.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Ferroviarius
Posted 2013-01-22 07:25:43 and read 29349 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 2):
A 777/748 combo would be GREAT for LX!
That would change from their rather boring all-Airbus fleet.

  
Oh shalomshalom, LY777, how could an all Airbus fleet,   , EVER be boring,   ??? Besides, they have Darwin Airlines in the backyard with six Saab2000s!

Best,
Ferroviarius

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: joost
Posted 2013-01-22 07:27:34 and read 29288 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
I think there's little to no chance of seeing either because both are simply too big for LX. It will be A350's without a doubt.
LX are an interesting carrier. And profitable at what they're doing. They are very premium-oriented (with KE the only carrier to offer F on all long-haul flights), have a strong homebase, a decent network and room to growth. It doesn't handle the volume of passengers like LH, but certainly has growth possibility for price-sensitive economy passengers.

At the same time, parent LH isn't happy with both FRA and MUC: although FRA has the additional runway, it has a ban on night flights hampering growth possibilities. And MUC decided against a third runway. ZRH might well be their escape in order to grow for the group.

And once you have a steady demand for F and C, it's quite easy to use larger aircraft and fill the back with the large volume of passengers. The volume can come from the LH network. (For a LH-loyal passenger from HAM or DUS, it doesn't really matter if the connection is at MUC, FRA or ZRH).

Having said that, I still think the A359, maybe some A350-1000s around 2020, is most likely. The 747-8 flirt might be nothing more than negotiation tactics with Airbus.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
Do they even have any long haul route where they operate double daily flights? It will be A350's without a doubt.


ZRH-EWR is 3x daily A333.

[Edited 2013-01-22 07:28:48]

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Someone83
Posted 2013-01-22 07:32:30 and read 29063 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
ZRH-EWR is 3x daily A333

No, it's 1x daily. ZRH-JFK is 2x daily

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: LY777
Posted 2013-01-22 07:49:57 and read 29947 times.

Quoting Ferroviarius (Reply 22):
Oh shalomshalom, LY777, how could an all Airbus fleet, , EVER be boring, ??? Besides, they have Darwin Airlines in the backyard with six Saab2000s!

All-Airbus fleets always look boring to me:
- the A318/A319/A320/A321 are roughly the same planes
- the A330/A340 are also roughly the same planes (one has 2 engines, the other one, 4).
So, for me, an all-Airbus fleet (except the A380) turns around 2 types of planes. This is why I found it boring.
When the A300/A310 were still in the air, that was another story, they had much more character.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: HBGDS
Posted 2013-01-22 07:56:18 and read 29768 times.

The only place a 748 would work for Swiss is where the 743 non-combi worked: GVA or ZRH to JFK, In other words, the milk route for the UN and for the financial centers. The only reason they used 743s otherwise were as Combis on their Asian routes. They were offered the A380. There is a model of it and archievs reportedly have some kind of early study of its potential when the A380 was still A3XX.

ANyway, I doubt 748 would come along unless LH thinks it's viable to share that sort of fleet.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-22 08:09:24 and read 29971 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
(LX) are very premium-oriented (with KE the only carrier to offer F on all long-haul flights), have a strong homebase, a decent network and room to growth. It doesn't handle the volume of passengers like LH, but certainly has growth possibility for price-sensitive economy passengers.

The 747-8 works well in a premium-heavy configuration as it has the floor-space and the payload weight lift to support a large number of heavy First Class and Business Class seats.

That being said, a 747-8 would see double the Business Class and over 50% more Economy Class seating than the A340-300. So LX would need to find a significantly higher number of Business Class passengers as well as Economy Class passengers.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: joost
Posted 2013-01-22 08:25:02 and read 29290 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
The 747-8 works well in a premium-heavy configuration as it has the floor-space and the payload weight lift to support a large number of heavy First Class and Business Class seats.

Well, in a way, you're right.

Premium-heavy aircraft are actually lighter than Y-heavy aircraft. Business and First-seat are heavy indeed, but not as heavy as passengers packed in Y.

For example, for LX in business (A330, Vantage seat), there is a 4/5-abreast configuration at 60". So 7 rows is 32 seats and totals 420"

At 32", 420" offers 13 rows of 8 seats = 104 seats. So that's 72 passengers, say at 75kgs (incl bag) each, makes 5400 kgs. That's more than the weight of business seats.

Now AFAIK, compared to the 77W, the 748 isn't a payload-king. That makes it very good for premium-heavy configurations.

Exactly this makes the 333 suitable for quite long routes with LX: with 236 pax, they aren't very heavily loaded and have room for fuel. For example, KLM's 292-seat 333s, will carry more payload by these 56 extra pax.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 25):
So, for me, an all-Airbus fleet (except the A380) turns around 2 types of planes. This is why I found it boring.

Airlines tend to like this commonality, though  
Quoting Someone83 (Reply 24):
No, it's 1x daily. ZRH-JFK is 2x daily

Thanks!

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-01-22 08:37:57 and read 28731 times.

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 6):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
the 777 probably wouldn't work since LH doesn't fly it.

They do through AeroLogic and soon Lufthansa Cargo

Austrian flies the 777 and provides the technical support from an engineering perspective for the plane for the Lufthansa group. A 777 order isn't out of the question.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2013-01-22 08:38:19 and read 28671 times.

Quoting nyswiss (Reply 15):
From a fleet commonality perspective and based on input of others I would expect a 350 order

What does the A-350 have in common with the rest of the LX or LH fleet? Only FBW is all I see.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 13):
It's too big IMHO. They only fly A343s and A333s at the minute and the A333s replaced the even smaller A332.

According to Wiki, LX wants to replace the A-343s with a bigger airplane.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_International_Air_Lines#Fleet

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
The 747-8 flirt might be nothing more than negotiation tactics with Airbus.

That could be true with any potential sale for Airbus or Boeing aircraft competing against each other.

I think most people have forgotten that LH still holds 20 options on the B-747-8i. LH could easily exercise some or all of those optioned airplanes, sending some to LX and others to LH. I'm assuming LH can get these options at a very good price, and it may be in the original contract for the 20 firm and 20 option LH originally ordered. I do expect LH to execise at least one optioned B-747-8i soon to replace the one they recently gave back to Boeing as a flight test airplane.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: strfyr51
Posted 2013-01-22 08:49:46 and read 28291 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 25):

who in the World would buy an airplane because it has "character"?? what airplane isn't boring after you've seen it for some time?? Heck I LOVE airplanes but after 43 years?? I can't remember one that was exciting. Especially when they're Broken! They kind of all look the same then..

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-22 09:09:08 and read 27569 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 2):
A 777/748 combo would be GREAT for LX!

I would think 748/7810 combo.

From ZRH, the 787-10 will have enough range to carry a nearly full payload to the US West Coast, China/Taiwan, India, Brazil, the northern half of South America, the Carribean and Mexico. It might well be capable of SIN as well.

The A359 and 777 would seem to me, to be too much airplane in this situation.

And the 748 is perfect sized for a subsidiary airline like LX.

Of course, a lot depends on the path that LH wants to go with the common widebody fleet across its brands.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ATL
Posted 2013-01-22 09:10:55 and read 27484 times.

YES. Been waiting for this moment for a while, the 747-8 would look fantastic in LX colors. Also, upper business class cabin would be great.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: musapapaya
Posted 2013-01-22 09:12:18 and read 27484 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
hat being said, a 747-8 would see double the Business Class and over 50% more Economy Class seating than the A340-300. So LX would need to find a significantly higher number of Business Class passengers as well as Economy Class passengers.

Their flight to HKG is usually quite full, but take this for example, if CX goes back to HKG-ZRH, will they manage to fill a plane like a 748?

50% increase in Y class is a lot, I do think the 748 is too big, and given the 777 is a generation old, (not the 359/787 generation), my bet is still on the 359.

just my 2 cents  

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: KaiTak747
Posted 2013-01-22 09:23:22 and read 27061 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
LX are an interesting carrier. And profitable at what they're doing. They are very premium-oriented (with KE the only carrier to offer F on all long-haul flights), have a strong homebase, a decent network and room to growth. It doesn't handle the volume of passengers like LH, but certainly has growth possibility for price-sensitive economy passengers.

Swiss definitely has room to grow. The Swiss economy is a fortress and have a plentiful supply or Y, J and F pax. The brand is also very strong, which helps a lot.

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
At the same time, parent LH isn't happy with both FRA and MUC: although FRA has the additional runway, it has a ban on night flights hampering growth possibilities. And MUC decided against a third runway. ZRH might well be their escape in order to grow for the group.

Really interesting point. I don't know how many of Swiss's long haul pax are connecting, but I'm sure LH could funnel some more through ZRH.

With that said, I think Swiss will go for the A350. It's a conservative increase in capacity and with their pilot shortages (not sure if still a problem) fleet commonality will help.

I think LX will order some long haul aircraft for their GVA base or at least transfer some over from ZRH. Geneva has a large, wealthy and international population and LX only fly GVA-JFK longhaul.

I think if Swiss do go for the 747-8i a.net should throw a party!   

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-01-22 09:46:16 and read 26132 times.

The key here is availability.....and price.
Both of which boeing will be glad to help on right now. I am sure that Boeing will cut them a helluva deal.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
That being said, a 747-8 would see double the Business Class and over 50% more Economy Class seating than the A340-300. So LX would need to find a significantly higher number of Business Class passengers as well as Economy Class passengers.

LX can fill these to certain markets. MIA, JFK, LAX and South America.

Quoting KaiTak747 (Reply 35):
I think if Swiss do go for the 747-8i a.net should throw a party!   

Whose buying?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-22 09:51:29 and read 26031 times.

Quoting HBGDS (Reply 26):
The only place a 748 would work for Swiss is where the 743 non-combi worked: GVA or ZRH to JFK, In other words, the milk route for the UN and for the financial centers. The only reason they used 743s otherwise were as Combis on their Asian routes. They were offered the A380. There is a model of it and archievs reportedly have some kind of early study of its potential when the A380 was still A3XX.

ZRHBKK and ZRHMIA are very large local markets (~150 PDEW) that can handle a 748. Other than that, yes, it's too much of a niche for Swiss. I don't get it. Not many places to put it.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: AADC10
Posted 2013-01-22 10:01:51 and read 25667 times.

It think this is Airbus and the A350's to lose. It is a true next generation aircraft with greater efficiency and comfort than the 748i and it is available in sizes substantially larger than the A343s. The only reasons to take the 748i is if they get a much better price or it will take too long to get an A350 delivered.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: wingnutmn
Posted 2013-01-22 10:01:54 and read 25696 times.

Is LX looking to replace a 4 hole with another 4 hole to not have to worry about ETOPs on certain routes? Because if not, I can see why any airline would want to buy a 4 engine aircraft over a 2 engine right now. I just can't see where LX needs any capacity over a 77W or A3510. And considering fleet commonality, I can't see them switching away from airbus. Boeing would literally need to give away the farm to make it economical for LX to switch. I also understand LH has an extensive boeing fleet, but current fleet commonality often outways price point savings in bringing in new aircraft when training and mx costs are added.

Wingnut

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-01-22 10:06:56 and read 25438 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
LX are an interesting carrier. And profitable at what they're doing. They are very premium-oriented (with KE the only carrier to offer F on all long-haul flights), have a strong homebase, a decent network and room to growth.

Good description. So given all of that and the fact that premium passengers value frequencies, I would think that VLA's are the last thing LX needs. The A359/10 seems perfect for LX.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 30):
What does the A-350 have in common with the rest of the LX or LH fleet? Only FBW is all I see.

You don't think that the LX order will be tied to the LH A340 replacement order? I do.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: flyinTLow
Posted 2013-01-22 10:07:32 and read 25446 times.

What I think most people forget here:

In times where the entire aviation industry is trying to cut down on costs, and LX being part of the LH family:

I highly doubt LX will go solo on any aircraft order. Meaning, in my opinion, it will be a large order of the same type, which will be split up among the company.

It's not only LX's A343s that require replacement. We have LH's A343s, and within the replacement timeframe, also OS's B767. Bundle those up, and you can consider an aircraft order of maybe 50 to 60 frames. That is an oportunity for a good price noone can neglect.

Talking about the options though, I would not consider the B777 unlikely. Given those numbers, OS's experience with the aircraft type, and the upcoming LH Cargo aircraft.

On the other hand, the B748 just seems too big for LX, definitly for OS. I would put my money on the A350 though, just my guess...

Cheers,
flyinTLow

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-22 10:07:36 and read 25470 times.

I don't get why people are saying the A350 for commonality.

What commonality?

The LH group has not ordered any A350s yet. And while the A350 has some cockpit commonality with the A330, that will have only a limited impact on what the LH Group chooses. After all the LH group flies both Airbus and Boeing narrowbody widebody aircraft.

Personally, I see very little utility for the LH group in the A350 outside the A351. The 787-10 is basically the perfect aircraft for LH, LX, OS and SN. Enough range to fly a full or nearly full payload to Asia, Africa, North America and most of South America. More seating capacity than their current 333s, 343s and 77Es. Or at least enough additional capacity to accomodate the increasingly upgraded F and J cabins and possible Y+ without dropping seat counts. Toss in easier crew upgrades to the 748.

The A350-900 will probably max out on cargo volume and seat count before it maxes out on range for the routes that the LH group would operate it on. That's a rather inefficient employment of an airframe.

I see LX, OS and SN moving to the 787 for long haul. And LH itself operating A350-1000s and A380s in addition to 787-10s and 748s.

LX would do quite well with ~10 748s and ~25 787-10s.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2013-01-22 10:08:57 and read 25412 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 30):
According to Wiki, LX wants to replace the A-343s with a bigger airplane.

Fair enough, but the 748i is a heck of a jump from the 343/333 (they have identical fuselages). 77W or A359/J seems to make more sense. The 748i has the advantage that it is available quickly (not a huge backlog). It might also make sense to convert some of the LH 748i's to LX and see how that type works in LX's network before actually placing another order.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: columba
Posted 2013-01-22 10:11:59 and read 25295 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 2):
A 777/748 combo would be GREAT for LX!
That would change from their rather boring all-Airbus fleet.

787-9 and 787-10 fleet mixed with some 747-8s makes more sense, no need for the 777 here

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-01-22 10:38:35 and read 24423 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 23):
(with KE the only carrier to offer F on all long-haul flights)

TAM will also be on that list in a few weeks when the 767s are phased out.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: sqsfo
Posted 2013-01-22 10:40:40 and read 24351 times.

Although a 748 would be a logical choice due LH's ownership and operation of the 748, wouldn't that much capacity be overkill for the LX brand? The choice of A340/330 fleet has proven to do well for the LX group, not to small not to big, just the perfect size considering the Swiss demographics.

The more viable options for LX seem to be the A350, but do not rule out the 777 altogether because OS(part of the LH group) operates a mix of 777/767. At this point everything is up in the air.

I predict that LX will eye on the A350 or the 777 more; or it just seems more logical seeing their strategy.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-22 10:41:30 and read 24362 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 43):
Fair enough, but the 748i is a heck of a jump from the 343/333 (they have identical fuselages).

Taken out of context, it is a big jump.

But LX is a piece of the LH Group puzzle.

If you were LH facing infrastructure issues and ops restrictions at MUC and FRA, would you not use LX, OS and SN to grow where possible?

This is where the 748 has potential at LX.

Toss in the fact that sooner or later the EU will slap on carbon taxes onto aviation. This only favours bigger birds and same or fewer frequencies where possible (like the NYC market).

Quoting columba (Reply 44):
787-9 and 787-10 fleet mixed with some 747-8s makes more sense, no need for the 777 here

Agreed on the 777. The 789 though offers no real advantage. The extra range isn't needed. And it won't have any volume/space growth over the current fleet.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-22 10:47:33 and read 24130 times.

An alternative narrative could be the deployment of A350-1000s to replace the 343s at LX. More capacity than the 343s.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Aesma
Posted 2013-01-22 10:54:07 and read 23874 times.

In my opinion, the A350, 787, 777, in that order, are more likely orders than the 748.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-01-22 10:58:25 and read 23766 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 28):

I thought the point was referencing issues aircraft like the 346 have with a forward-heavy config weighing them down and throwing off the CG, whereas the 748 shouldn't have that problem AFAIK.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-01-22 11:07:37 and read 23508 times.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 5):
Anything bigger than a A3510 is doubtful in my view, A359 most likely.

I would see a combination of A359's and A3510's as highly likely.  .

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 10):
I can't see what the 747-8i would offer to Swiss that A350-1000 would not. Well, availability perhaps?

It sure is earlier available.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 17):
I'd love to see 747-8s at Swiss.

As a big fan of 4-holers, me too!   And since the B748 is in the LH Group as well, it sure is a possibility.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 40):
Good description. So given all of that and the fact that premium passengers value frequencies, I would think that VLA's are the last thing LX needs. The A359/10 seems perfect for LX.

Exactly my thoughts.

Quoting flyinTLow (Reply 41):
I highly doubt LX will go solo on any aircraft order. Meaning, in my opinion, it will be a large order of the same type, which will be split up among the company.

Could be part of LH topping-up their B748-order? Would be very nice, but I do not expect this to happen.

Quoting flyinTLow (Reply 41):
On the other hand, the B748 just seems too big for LX, definitely for OS. I would put my money on the A350 though, just my guess...

Also agreed, the A359+A3510 combo seems very attractive and seems to make sense for LX.  

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ZRH
Posted 2013-01-22 11:08:32 and read 23133 times.

Quoting sqsfo (Reply 46):
The choice of A340/330 fleet has proven to do well for the LX group, not to small not to big, just the perfect size considering the Swiss demographics.

This is not entirely correct. SWISS says since quite a while that they need a bigger aircraft than the 343 for some destinations.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: columba
Posted 2013-01-22 11:10:27 and read 23114 times.

Quoting sqsfo (Reply 46):
Although a 748 would be a logical choice due LH's ownership and operation of the 748, wouldn't that much capacity be overkill for the LX brand? The choice of A340/330 fleet has proven to do well for the LX group, not to small not to big, just the perfect size considering the Swiss demographics.

A few months ago Swiss there was an article stating that Swiss want to replace some of their A343s with a larger aircraft. It was said that they need a bigger aircraft for their routes to Brasil especially to São Paulo.

Article in German:
http://www.aerotelegraph.com/swiss-sucht-nachfolger-fuer-a340-airbus

P.S. it is also mentioned in the article above that Swiss is looking to replace their older A343s by 2014 (which would be a big argument for the 747-8I). A few months ago there was also an interesting statement by the 747 chief pilot of Lufthansa who has said that the airline’s long-range fleet group is due to decide on adding additional aircraft by the third quarter of 2013, some of which could include 747-8s. With that in mind and given how much LH is satisfied with their 747-8Is I would not say it is unlikely that LH will order some 747-8Is for their Swiss brand as well  

[Edited 2013-01-22 11:25:43]

[Edited 2013-01-22 11:27:24]

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: dtswi
Posted 2013-01-22 11:19:42 and read 22815 times.

I think the 748 is a very viable and future orientated option for swiss. Their 343 are quite full all the time and their quality product is attracting more and more clients I am sure.

I have just come back from a trip to Bangkok with swiss from Lisbon via Zrh, Swiss business and alone the "Balik salmon tartare with wasabi sauce" by star chef of "Fischerzunft Schaffhausen" as appetizer and the bright, modern and open new swiss arrival lounge in Terminal B with private bathroom suite and spa quality products is worth a detour.
I paid 2'450.00 Euros only for a return ticket in business from Lisbon. This was the cheapest on the market. And the best.
HUT AB, SWISS   and keep on growing !

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-01-22 11:28:01 and read 22519 times.

Quoting ytz (Reply 42):
The LH group has not ordered any A350s yet. And while the A350 has some cockpit commonality with the A330, that will have only a limited impact on what the LH Group chooses. After all the LH group flies both Airbus and Boeing narrowbody widebody aircraft.

I think A.net overvalues the benefits of the Airbus common cockpit design. It's great that they layout is similar, but the airplane functionality is widely different. The switch might be the same, but all the airplane checklists are different. There is very little commonality between the A340 and A350. There is a cost factor savings and crew training would be less, but when you look at total operating and acquisition costs, the cockpit commonality is almost meaningless.

I would say this order is very open.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: joost
Posted 2013-01-22 11:35:33 and read 22282 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 30):
What does the A-350 have in common with the rest of the LX or LH fleet? Only FBW is all I see.
Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 55):
I think A.net overvalues the benefits of the Airbus common cockpit design. It's great that they layout is similar, but the airplane functionality is widely different. The switch might be the same, but all the airplane checklists are different. There is very little commonality between the A340 and A350.

AFAIK, the A350 will be entitled to have a common type rating. So (after training) the A350 can be flown by the same pilots as the 330/340.

It's very attractive for scheduling purposes: flexibility makes that you need less pilots for the complete schedule.

The same is true for 777/787: with proper training pilots are allowed to be flying both aircraft types.So a pilot can fly a 330 on Monday, and a 350 on Tuesday.

The easiest example of savings is for a spare flight crew: when you have different types, you'll need a spare crew (for illness, etc) for both aircraft types. With single type rating, one spare crew is sufficient.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 30):
According to Wiki, LX wants to replace the A-343s with a bigger airplane.

From the linked interview from the Wikipedia site, it's based on an interview with mr. Hohmeister from November 2012. Indeed, a bigger plane is wanted. And the 359 is slightly longer ( 3m) and wider (3-3-3 in Y vs 2-4-2) than the 343, so it fits his criteria.

Quoting ytz (Reply 32):
From ZRH, the 787-10 will have enough range to carry a nearly full payload to the US West Coast, China/Taiwan, India, Brazil, the northern half of South America, the Carribean and Mexico. It might well be capable of SIN as well.

The A359 and 777 would seem to me, to be too much airplane in this situation.

Size-wise, the 787-10 and 359 will be very similar. However, the 359 is available quite some years before the 787-10, which hasn't even been launched formally. It's questionable if LX wants to keep flying their 343s for so long.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-01-22 11:45:41 and read 21982 times.

Quoting joost (Reply 56):
AFAIK, the A350 will be entitled to have a common type rating. So (after training) the A350 can be flown by the same pilots as the 330/340.

It's very attractive for scheduling purposes: flexibility makes that you need less pilots for the complete schedule.

The same is true for 777/787: with proper training pilots are allowed to be flying both aircraft types.So a pilot can fly a 330 on Monday, and a 350 on Tuesday.

The easiest example of savings is for a spare flight crew: when you have different types, you'll need a spare crew (for illness, etc) for both aircraft types. With single type rating, one spare crew is sufficient.

It's a great advantage and I don't deny that, but the pilot training and flexibility cost factor is only a small factor in making a purchase decision. Airplane capacity, fuel burn, maintenance costs, etc are much bigger factors. It's great that pilot resources will be more efficiently managed, but I don't think that really gives the A350 much of an edge. It gives it some, but if Swiss orders the A350, it will be because it suits their operation the best on many factors.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-01-22 11:47:27 and read 22087 times.

It has been said by the LH 747 Chief Pilot Elmar Boje that LH long-haul fleet group were due to make a new order by Q3 2013.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/awx_12_20_2012_p0-531065.xml

I do expect LH will be making a group order instead of LX placing it. That has been mentioned before in this thread and it definitely makes sense.

It is also not too unlikely LH considers Switzerland as a place to grow. BER is not going to be ready soon and FRA and MUC are facing difficulties.

I'm living in the south of Germany and almost all my connections get me to ZRH. It is a very nice airport, short connections, not too crowded. There are quite a lot of people from south Germany traveling with Swiss.

Swiss was the first member inside LH group to updated business class with full-flat seats and it is going to take a while until LH will have updated it's entire fleet. For the time being LX is the better choice.

Since LH group is not changing it's fleet too often, I do see the need for bigger aircraft in order to cope with the global growth in pax.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: VC10er
Posted 2013-01-22 11:55:22 and read 21766 times.

I can't say if a 7478i is right or not for LX, but I must say, when I think of the days at JFK with PanAm, Sabina, Lufthansa, Varig and Swissair 747's, it would be so wonderful to get one back.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: GVAJFKflyer
Posted 2013-01-22 12:08:19 and read 21378 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 19):
SWISS is the new "Swissair"

Slightly off topic, but actually SWISS is the successor of Crossair.

http://bs.powernet.ch/webservices/in...dified=0&validOnly=0&lang=2&sort=0

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-01-22 12:09:30 and read 21393 times.

I don' t see the point why LH would order any 777. This aircraft has entered into service long ago and is due to be "facelifted" in a couple of years. No doubt about it is a great aircraft but I rather expect LH to go for a modern type which will then remain for 20+ years as the 744 did and still does.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: dennys
Posted 2013-01-22 12:25:51 and read 20876 times.

Those are pretty good news ! The return of the " Giummboh ' in the ex Swissair fleet ... Please no more twins !!!

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: columba
Posted 2013-01-22 12:56:31 and read 19962 times.

Quoting dennys (Reply 62):
Those are pretty good news ! The return of the " Giummboh ' in the ex Swissair fleet ... Please no more twins !!!

I agree but keep in mind that nothing is certain, yet.....let´s keep our fingers crossed

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: joost
Posted 2013-01-22 13:01:13 and read 19899 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 53):
P.S. it is also mentioned in the article above that Swiss is looking to replace their older A343s by 2014 (which would be a big argument for the 747-8I).

LX still has 2x 333 on order. When these are the 238t variants, they can be used to replace the 343s on ZRH-PEK and it might well be good enough for PVG or BKK.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: flyglobal
Posted 2013-01-22 13:55:24 and read 18541 times.

So here is what will happen:

1st) no 777-300 ER in its current stage, unless they release the 777-9x .

2) LH release 10-12 or even all 20 of their 748i options and will order a bunch of Airbus A350-900 and probably even 1000.

3) Swiss will get about 6 to 8 Frames of the 748i and until the A350s are for arrival, LH will pass some A340-600 to LX and will fix the gap they leave with the remaining 748i.

the 787-9/ 10 I see for OS, SN and LX as a 777 and 767 replacement and LH 343 replacement.
Basically LH also needs something with previously the A300 covered- medium haul 250 seater type to Russia, TelAvic, Kairo, London where the European seating is a night mare.

Regards

Flyglobal

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: PanAm1971
Posted 2013-01-22 14:02:49 and read 18308 times.

I openly admit the idea of the 747-8i in Swiss colors makes me smile from ear to ear. I would very much like to see this... and it would effect my choice of choice of carriers.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: WesternA318
Posted 2013-01-22 14:10:32 and read 18090 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 1):
Another carrier where the A380 is just too big, but the 748 is not. I think the outlook for the 748 is greater than many have speculated here on A.net. Great news, if it comes true, for Swiss and Boeing.

Damn good to hear, I love the 747-8i, my first flight will be on her this Spring!

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Ferroviarius
Posted 2013-01-22 14:14:53 and read 17996 times.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 31):
who in the World would buy an airplane because it has "character"?? what airplane isn't boring after you've seen it for some time?? Heck I LOVE airplanes but after 43 years?? I can't remember one that was exciting. Especially when they're Broken! They kind of all look the same then..

This is an interesting point, indeed. However, I still think that a DC7C or a Constellation / Star Liner have their very own esthetics, and even the DC8, DC9, MDs and 717. These planes, to my mind, were or are different from today's uniformity, which is a, possibly "the", consequence of that we today know more about aerodynamic optimization.
Personally, I am not ashamed to confess, I go for the DC7C.

Best,

Ferroviarius

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: joost
Posted 2013-01-22 14:47:35 and read 17371 times.

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 65):
Basically LH also needs something with previously the A300 covered- medium haul 250 seater type to Russia, TelAvic, Kairo, London where the European seating is a night mare.

The era of widebodies on intra-European routes is over. I doubt we'll see new widebodies on Intra-European routes. Once BA's 767s are gone, we'll be left with 321s and 739s.

There was a small chance, but then Boeing abandoned the 787-3...

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-22 15:16:52 and read 16736 times.

Be sure that Swiss will only get airplane types LH also operates. I (sadly) see the A350 as the most likely choice unless LH orders the 787, and there is hope for a few 748Is. Only with the 748I Swiss would be able to offer a real alternative to the competition. Very little chance for the 777s, or to be more precise, no 777s before the 777X might come (or not).

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: MCOflyer
Posted 2013-01-22 17:12:07 and read 14817 times.

I have a feeling it will be the A350 that wins. However, we can all pray Swiss goes for the 748I.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: qf340500
Posted 2013-01-22 17:15:24 and read 14862 times.

Lets pray Swiss doesn't order any 747-8i ! If they take some off from LH and LH orders a bunch of A350s for the group, fine, but please no specific order for that 5 times warmed up plane.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: american 767
Posted 2013-01-22 17:19:40 and read 14757 times.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 31):
what airplane isn't boring after you've seen it for some time??

The Boeing 727. I have not flown on enough of them. I know there's nothing I can do because they are all gone, but I just express my feelings. I could have flown on those three times as much as I actually did and I would not have got tired of it. This one is a fantastic airplane, a very important classic in the history of civil aviation. If it wasn't for the 727, I don't even know if I would have been interested in civil aviation.

Anyway, back to the topic of Swiss and the 747-8i, it is interesting that they are looking at it because they have not flown the 400 previously, although the old Swissair did fly the older 300 before.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: SwissVA
Posted 2013-01-22 17:30:58 and read 14587 times.

Quoting ZRH (Reply 52):
Quoting sqsfo (Reply 46):The choice of A340/330 fleet has proven to do well for the LX group, not to small not to big, just the perfect size considering the Swiss demographics.This is not entirely correct. SWISS says since quite a while that they need a bigger aircraft than the 343 for some destinations.


Yes, that statement is indeed heard more then once in the SWISS office's walkways.
The A343's are often too small these days on many routes.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: WAC
Posted 2013-01-22 17:35:18 and read 14505 times.

I would say a 748 would only be an option if LH topped their order.
The 748 is an ideal LH Group aircraft just like the A380 is for EK.
If the 748 is odered for LX it would show LH is looking to expand the niche carrier (i.e. OZ) to a premium global airline (SQ), along with the differing strategies.
Otherwise it is an order for the 787/777 or A350/A330.
(Might also tie in with CHF exchange rate with the Euro and USD)....

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: flightsimer
Posted 2013-01-22 17:38:56 and read 14458 times.

Come on LX! would love to see another airline operating the 747-8I.

Quoting qf340500 (Reply 72):


Where in the world do you get 5 times warmed up? you have the -100/200/SP/300, then the -400 and now the -8. That's only three. You must really hate the 737 then since its on its fourth generation.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-01-22 17:45:49 and read 14525 times.

Quoting qf340500 (Reply 72):
Lets pray Swiss doesn't order any 747-8i ! If they take some off from LH and LH orders a bunch of A350s for the group, fine, but please no specific order for that 5 times warmed up plane.

I'd be okay if LX gets the 747-8 provided they install the extra noise insulation in the nose LH did.

I've never been a fan of the 747, but I will say LH did it right with their First Class section on the 747-8. They didn't cram in the seats (I believe LX has the same or similar First Class seating) and the extra noise insulation is most welcome.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: qf340500
Posted 2013-01-22 18:03:39 and read 14221 times.

Yes i hate the 737 as well  

ok, maybe my mistake, i considered the step from the -100 to the -200 and then to the -300 and then to the -400 and then to the -8 as 5 "development steps or warm-ups"  

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: flyinTLow
Posted 2013-01-22 18:33:15 and read 13797 times.

Don't get me wrong, i would love to see more 748i's in different colors. But honestly:

Just looking at the seatmaps from LH's and LX's website:

LX 343: 219 seats
LH 748i: 362 seats (with bigger C class)

That would mean an increase of 143 seats! That's an increase of more than 65%! As much expansion LX might want. This is just maniac! I really don't see that happening. Much more likely:

Give LX 10 or more A346's from LH. With 306 seats in their current config, that is only an increase by 87 seats (~40%), hard enough to fill already. It will still give LX all the advantages of commonality, not a huge step for them introducing that bird.
At the same time, LH can quickly fill this gap with new 748's. It is a capacity increase for both airlines which can be realized without "huge" decisions on a rather short notice. This way, the decision of an entire replacement can be postponed untill the entire group is ready to make one. And then it will be a huge order, I think.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-22 18:54:44 and read 13505 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 1):
Another carrier where the A380 is just too big, but the 748 is not.

Disagree. 748 is much too big, and why 4 engines when 2 will do the job? The A350 is by far the best option in my opinion considering LX's long Airbus experience and commonality synergies with the rest of the fleet.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-01-22 19:33:16 and read 13077 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 80):

Disagree. 748 is much too big, and why 4 engines when 2 will do the job? The A350 is by far the best option in my opinion considering LX's long Airbus experience and commonality synergies with the rest of the fleet.

A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. The 748 is already here, LH likes their 748s, and Boeing probably offered/will offer LX an attractive deal.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-22 19:55:43 and read 12756 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 81):
and Boeing probably offered/will offer LX an attractive deal.

As no doubt will Airbus.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: SandroZRH
Posted 2013-01-22 20:28:33 and read 12349 times.

I'm not going to speculate on this matter anymore, there is a lot of galley-gossipping going on in the company. But may I just add that the linked article isn't very well written at all. Not only is the number of A340s operated by Swiss 15 and not 13 as claimed by the article, but the number of destinations served with the A340 is largely incomplete.

However, I'm not holding my breath for the 748.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-01-22 21:47:02 and read 11505 times.

Of course, the aircraft enthusiast in everyone would love to see the 748I in LX colours, but realistically, it's never going to happen. Don't forget that the 77W is also in the mix and I'd expect this to be a better choice than the 748 and the question also needs to be asked: why go for the 77W if the 779 is down the road and since the 779 pretty much makes the 748 a dead duck, it doesn't seem that the latter has any relevance down the road.

I have to agree with those who say the 350 is a much more likely choice, particularly given that at some stage, the 333s will need to be replaced as well; the 359/3510 combination would seem ideal for them, with the 3510 of course replacing the 343. The question there is, could LX wait four years for the 3510, if the 343 is already giving them capacity headaches?

Perhaps a solution there would be for LX to lease 346s from LH (if they could spare them?), to bridge that gap?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: baw716
Posted 2013-01-22 22:02:55 and read 11336 times.

This is an interesting discussion.

To look at what airplane they might get, let's look at their existing fleet:

The 343 seats 219 pax and has a range of 10500km/6500mi
The 333 seats 236 pax and has a range of 8400km/5300mi

In this context, is Swiss looking to step up to a 300 pax aircraft or a 400 pax aircraft. If Swiss is looking for a 400 seat aircraft that they can get quick and reasonably cheap, then the 747-8i is the aircraft; assuming they configure their aircraft at approximately the same density as LH does with their -8i, at just under 400 seats...with over half the cabin space configured for premium passengers.

Of course, if we are talking 300 seats, then we are really talking about the A350-900 vs. the 77W.

Then the next factor is - how soon? The EIS for the A350 is going to be - best case - mid to late 2014 tops. With 582 orders already, this means Swiss won't see an A350 until probably 2020, where as the 77Ws could come as early as 2015-2016.


So,
IF....they want a 300 seat aircraft and they want it quick: 77W or A346.
IF....they want a 400 seat aircraft and they want it quick: 748-i.
IF....they are willing to wait until 2020 and later for the 400 seat variant? A350.

So what do I think?

Since I'm a huge believer in fleet commonality because the operational costs are so much less (considering maintenance, pilots, cabin attendants...really it does span the entire operation), then it makes NO sense for Swiss to leave Airbus for Boeing.

Since the A346 (in LHs configuration) is 300 seats and it's range is 7700nm, there is an argument to be made that the best solution would be to take some A346s, grow their long haul network with the 346 as an interim solution until the A350 is available in the next decade.

While the notion of the 748i for Swiss is appealing for Boeing fans...Swiss is not LH. Swiss is more of a niche carrier...and with the exception of the Avro RJ for short haul, they are all Airbus.

As for LH...on the passenger side, they will be eventually be all Airbus but for the 747-8i. The 744s are getting old and tired and as LH takes A380s, it no longer needs a "big" plane. The 747-8i is the niche airplane that fits for them between the A380 at 500 seats and the A346 at 300. For them, it makes sense...but not for Swiss.

They will stay with Airbus; that's my prediction.
baw716

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-01-22 22:12:53 and read 11193 times.

I don' t see the 77X as a replacement for those who need a short-term solution. It's gonna take many years until their EIS even without major delays. For the time being the so-called dead duck (kaitak reply 84) will prove being the right plan for the job LH bought it. Usually their fleet planning group does perform well, even if many others can't understand the choice. I remember a NB aircraft currently updated to MAX has been built on request of LH who has been their launch customer, though.

New order for some more 748 for LH and transfer of 346 to LX would be my guess.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: vegas005
Posted 2013-01-22 22:27:40 and read 11065 times.

You guys talk about a paper airplane the A350 like it is here and ready to go, but it is not. Swiss has issues today that need solving today. Let's look at the facts;

Swiss has a pilot shortage and seems not willing to fix the issue.
Swiss is all Airbus long haul now.
Swiss pays less to the pilots then does sister LH
Zurich is somewhat under-utilised in the LH family network.

So:

A350 does nothing for Swiss now. Available later and brings some cockpit commonality we assume?
777 is the right size but it would cause training issues and more pilot shortages
748i is possibly too big unless LH starts to bring in a lot more connecting traffic and again brings up training/pilot issues.

My opinion is A340-600 for now...

then

If LH decides to grow ZRH to take advantage of the great airport, cheaper costs etc..., see and order for the 350

Of course my heart says 748i. man that would look great!

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: CARST
Posted 2013-01-22 22:38:51 and read 10926 times.

As it was pointed out by mah4546...

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 37):

ZRHBKK and ZRHMIA are very large local markets (~150 PDEW) that can handle a 748. Other than that, yes, it's too much of a niche for Swiss. I don't get it. Not many places to put it.

... there are some routes that have enough demand for a plane as large as the 747-8i. But there are not many of these routes in Swiss' network.

I think at this point anything is possible, but I am sure we will see a split-order between Boeing and Airbus and/or between types. They won't order 15 747s just for LX to replace the A343, but they don't have to. With LX being a member of LH Group they could order a small sub-fleet down to 3-5 aircraft of one type as long as this type is part of the LH Group.

This order could end up 3-10 747s with some 777s in the mix. Depending how long they want to wait either next-gen 777s or just some 77Es as short-term-solution, later being replaced by -8s.

This could end up as a pure 777 order with some interim lift now and later -8s and -9s.

Or this could end up as a Airbus order with A350s, -900 and -1000 models.

Or this could end up as a Boeing Airbus split, with some 747s on top and the A359 being the mainstay replacing A333s and A343s all-together.


Who knows know? Any combination is possible as long as it fits. All airplanes mentioned are (or will be) flying for the LH Group, either through LH mainline, OS, LH cargo, SN or 3S (Aerologic).

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-23 02:02:03 and read 8493 times.

Quoting qf340500 (Reply 72):

Lets pray Swiss doesn't order any 747-8i ! If they take some off from LH and LH orders a bunch of A350s for the group, fine, but please no specific order for that 5 times warmed up plane.

Why, as a J-class passenger I must say its the best plane you can fly in. You surely have never flown on it I´m sure otherwise you wouldnt say such crap.

Quoting CARST (Reply 88):
This could end up as a pure 777 order with some interim lift now and later -8s and -9s.

Unlikely that the LH group would order current 777 pax planes. Ordering 77Ws now is like ordering A340s in 2003, by 2020 they would need to look for new planes again. Shortterm thinking not what LH fleet planning is known for. LH has turned down the 777 already twice, so why should they now agree on them when its over the zenit?

Quoting vegas005 (Reply 87):
My opinion is A340-600 for now...

That would make most sense as a interim solution if they would like to go for the A350-1000 longterm.

For the high-yield passenger the 748I would be the best without a doubt.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: qf340500
Posted 2013-01-23 02:20:38 and read 8212 times.

"na", if i offended you personally somehow then i am sorry and apologize, otherwise please accept my "crap" as my own humble opinion, which i am allowed to voice  

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: twa@fra
Posted 2013-01-23 02:35:49 and read 8006 times.

wasn't there once mention that LH didn't chose the LX business class seats because they are not ideal for the 747.... anyhow my opinion is that they of course having a look at all options, but will go with A346 1st and A350 later.....

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-23 02:36:52 and read 8012 times.

Quoting qf340500 (Reply 90):
"na", if i offended you personally somehow then i am sorry and apologize, otherwise please accept my "crap" as my own humble opinion, which i am allowed to voice  

To have such an opinion you should first experience what you are talking about. I have flown on the 748I and can tell you for the sake of superior passenger comfort the harsh words you said could not be further from the truth. Not talking about Y-class, but the 748I (and all 747s) offer superior F- and J-class cabins by concept that cant be found elsewhere. You cant deny that. Its sad that so many fleet planners fail to acknowledge that.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: FlyingAY
Posted 2013-01-23 03:24:57 and read 7415 times.

Quoting na (Reply 92):
Not talking about Y-class, but the 748I (and all 747s) offer superior F- and J-class cabins by concept that cant be found elsewhere. You cant deny that. Its sad that so many fleet planners fail to acknowledge that.

I'm sure that is because there is no noticeable difference in the behaviour of the paying public when booking their flights. I'd think that BA 318 with no Y class at all should be even more comfortable...

I think A350 for LH group is a given and I could see LX operating some as well. 747-8i would work only on a limited amount of their routes.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: calvo747
Posted 2013-01-23 03:32:18 and read 7343 times.

these birds could be the answer, a couple of cheap 600's.

Unidentified A340-600s For Sale (by skipness1E Jan 22 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Azure
Posted 2013-01-23 03:32:27 and read 7360 times.

Quoting CARST (Reply 88):
With LX being a member of LH Group they could order a small sub-fleet down to 3-5 aircraft of one type as long as this type is part of the LH Group.

Agreed. I believe LX could use the 748 on some routes (ZRH - JFK for instance).
I would rule out the 777. The A350 is certainly a more likely option for LX for all the reasons stated in the previous posts.

On a side note, it has been noted that ZRH was underused. Probably. There is certainly room for growth there. I must admit I am a little bit biaised on this topic as ZRH is by far my favorite hub in Europe !

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: something
Posted 2013-01-23 04:21:53 and read 6860 times.

The debate isn't A380-748-77W-A350, the debate is A350 vs 787.

Lufthansa is interested in the 787-1000 but requires certain capabilities that Boeing has yet to commit to. The LH group order for 787 and A350 will be determined by Boeing's progress with the 787-1000 program and will realistically be placed sometime in October/November 2013. Should Boeing not manage to deliver on Lufthansa's requirements for the 787, the order may go to the A350 entirely (but there's no indication of that being the case so far). LH wants the 787-900 if the 787-1000 meets their target performance, but would not buy the 787-900 alone. The 787-9 and 787-1 combo could replace the longhaul aircraft of all, SN/LX/OS.

This is the unpleasant gridlock LH currently finds itself in. LX needs larger planes, rather urgently at that. LH argues that over a 20 years time span, it'll be cheaper to fly A340-600s to bridge the gap until the A350s (or 787) arrive, which in addition will have lower operating costs than the 77W. LX argues that the reconfiguration, training etc. of ex LH A346s to LX would tip the scale in favor of the 77W. Furthermore, the operating costs of a 77W are lower than those of the A346s even if you include the depreciation which would help improve LX annual bottom line. Another problem is the uncertainty of the future. If the global economy weakens and as a result, demand wanes, oil prices decline, going with the A340-600 will be more cost efficient. A quicker than forecasted growth of the economy, rising cost of fuel and a potential delivery delay of the A350 make the 77W the safer bet.

Ultimately, I'm certain Boeing will manage to bring the 787-1000 up to LH needs. It will then be the flexibility of Airbus, Boeing and the engine manufacturers that'll decide in what quantities each aircraft will be ordered. LH group makes plans for the long term - I therefore doubt the 77W will find its way to LX simply on grounds of availability. The 748 is too big for LX and has to my knowledge not even been seriously mentioned as an option.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Aesma
Posted 2013-01-23 04:46:28 and read 6674 times.

Quoting something (Reply 96):
Furthermore, the operating costs of a 77W are lower than those of the A346s even if you include the depreciation which would help improve LX annual bottom line.

You make me realize that the accounting of the LH group must be complicated when they move planes from one entity to another. How would they estimate the "fair price" of an A346, a capable aircraft that nobody is selling or buying currently ?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: something
Posted 2013-01-23 05:10:03 and read 6551 times.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 97):
Quoting something (Reply 96):
Furthermore, the operating costs of a 77W are lower than those of the A346s even if you include the depreciation which would help improve LX annual bottom line.

You make me realize that the accounting of the LH group must be complicated when they move planes from one entity to another. How would they estimate the "fair price" of an A346, a capable aircraft that nobody is selling or buying currently ?

By determining the ''operating value''. It is all a very complicated calculation, ie. how much money could LX earn with this plane that they'd forfeit by not upgauging their aircraft size. Against that, LH would set the value this plane has for them, ie. how much money could LH make with that plane if they kept it for the given time period, if they went without it or if they replaced it by something else (A333, A343, 744, 748, A388). [The actual on the books accounting is much more complicated as both countries, Germany and Swiss, have different tax codes. Moving assets from FRA to ZRH - quite often in the literal sense - for tax reasons happens all the time. This, however, is not a department I'm acquainted with intimately enough to make informed comments.]

Swiss' main problem are slot issues at GRU and HKG. All of their other stations could just be served at higher frequencies to match demand. Which is why it strikes me as highly unlikely that LX will buy 77Ws. It's essentially two routes, for a period of 5-6 years at most.

Interestingly, LH could operate those flights on behalf of LX out of ZRH. They have in the past done flying for OS out of VIE on their metal, but the good people of Switzerland feel less than thrilled about this proposition (mostly to preserve their own corporate identity on their own flights).

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: CARST
Posted 2013-01-23 05:42:43 and read 6380 times.

Quoting na (Reply 89):

Unlikely that the LH group would order current 777 pax planes. Ordering 77Ws now is like ordering A340s in 2003, by 2020 they would need to look for new planes again. Short-term thinking not what LH fleet planning is known for. LH has turned down the 777 already twice, so why should they now agree on them when its over the zenit?

I depends on how fast they have to act, right? Because, if they think they can cope with their current fleet for another few years, they could go with the 777-8. If they want to act fast, they could get some 747 or A346 as interim lift from LH, repainted but flown on a wet-lease (747) or dry-lease (A346).

Quoting na (Reply 89):
Unlikely that the LH group would order current 777 pax planes. Ordering 77Ws now is like ordering A340s in 2003, by 2020 they would need to look for new planes again.

LH ordered more "fuel-guzzling" A340s when other airlines went for the 777. They ordered the "fuel-guzzling" 747-8, a four-holer, god forbid! So ordering the 77W now doesn't seem unlikely, it still gets enough orders from other airlines. Perhaps only as top-up orders, but it would be kind of the same for LX, as I said before, I see the whole LH Group as one company. Their are three companies inside the LH Group operating the 777. Two times the 777F and OS with the 77E.

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 93):
I think A350 for LH group is a given and I could see LX operating some as well. 747-8i would work only on a limited amount of their routes.

That is my feeling, too, but like I said before, it would be no problem for LX to order 3-5 747-8i aircraft for their core trunk and premium routes and add another 20 A359s or 787s. If they plan to grow at ZRH and relieve FRA and AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC I could see them ordering more 747s or large twins.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 97):
You make me realize that the accounting of the LH group must be complicated when they move planes from one entity to another. How would they estimate the "fair price" of an A346, a capable aircraft that nobody is selling or buying currently ?

I am agreeing with "something" here. A lot of factors will go into determining the price. But I could see the A346s being sold for a few thousand Euro, too. If LH depreciates their aircraft on a 10 year time-span and the aircraft in question is more than 10 years old (EIS was in 2001), it could have a value of 1 Euro in the books. And if LH can show that this model as no resale value, or is not worth more than its still useful parts, LX could get it for a bargain.



Overall I think LX has made no decision. And I have the feeling that their decision is made in FRA and not at ZRH, because this is a decision for the whole LH Group including LH, OS, LX, SN and both cargo companies. What is their overall plan for the next 25 years? That is the important question. How will their long-haul fleet look like?
Option a) 787-8/A350-8, A350-9, A350-10, 747-8i, A380 ?
Option b) 787-8, 787-9, 787-10, (777-8), 748i, A380?

IMHO (b) is much more logical. The A350-8 seems to be dead already. The 787-8 on the other hand doesn't really fit in the line-up of (a), no commonality AND (my most important point), the A350-10 is too close to the 747-8.
If Boeing can deliver a good 787-10 option (b) seems much more logical, LH could go from all-airbus-longhaul (+747) to all Boeing longhaul (+A380).

That would be huge news, but but I am not counting on it myself, because I see LH fleet-planning closer to Airbus than to Boeing, but perhaps this is a wrong perception I have based only on the fact that today it looks like only Boeing left in the LH fleet is the 747 (with the last 737s on their way out).

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-01-23 05:47:13 and read 6349 times.

Quoting na (Reply 92):
Not talking about Y-class, but the 748I (and all 747s) offer superior F- and J-class cabins by concept that cant be found elsewhere. You cant deny that. Its sad that so many fleet planners fail to acknowledge that.

That has more to do with the airline's product than the plane itself. If you're stuck in the upper deck business class, it's crampped and not that pleasant. I've been up there a few times.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: flyinTLow
Posted 2013-01-23 07:13:09 and read 6058 times.

It is not LX that orders planes, it is LH that orders the planes and then distributes them. of course in close coordination with LX. See the C-Series order.

It makes absolutly no sense to have a small subfleet of 5 aircraft at LX just for few routes. Not only would there be crew training costs that all of you are thinking of. There is a b*ttload of other things costing a fortune to maintain with any fleet: documentation (something a lot of people underestimate a lot), maintenance including spare parts, operational reserves, fleet administration, etc.

Of course, a few of those things can be split up within the LH Group. But that is not enough to justify introducing an entirely new aircraft type into LXs fleet just for a little expansion.

I highly doubt (as much as I would enjoy a new aircraft/livery combo) that the next 5-10 years will bring much new to LX's carpark in addition to their A343/333 family other than spraypainted LH A346s, and a total fleet renewalin roughly 10 years for the entire family.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-01-23 09:12:56 and read 5706 times.

Quoting something (Reply 96):
Lufthansa is interested in the 787-1000

I guess you mean B787-10. The extension '-1000' belongs to the A350-XWB.  .

Personally I see LH and possibly LX ordering both aircraft types. I would love to see the B748i, but I guess the B787 and A350 will serve LX very, very well.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-23 09:43:09 and read 5589 times.

Lots of people still talking about LX in isolation. LX isn't going to buy these airplanes. LHA will. And they already have a stated goal of standardizing types and configurations across the group.

This has a number of implications. For example:

Quoting flyinTLow (Reply 79):
LX 343: 219 seatsLH 748i: 362 seats (with bigger C class)
Quoting flyinTLow (Reply 79):
That would mean an increase of 143 seats! That's an increase of more than 65%! As much expansion LX might want. This is just maniac! I really don't see that happening. Much more likely:

1) What would the seat count be if LX were to offer a 4-class configuration?
2) What size of aircraft would be required if LHA decides that LX is going to carry much mover transfer traffic?

People who think the 748 is too big aren't seeing the bigger picture. It's like those who argued that the A380 was too big for EK. It's all up to LHA. What's their vision for LX?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: yyz717
Posted 2013-01-23 10:04:19 and read 5466 times.

Quoting ytz (Reply 103):
Lots of people still talking about LX in isolation. LX isn't going to buy these airplanes. LHA will. And they already have a stated goal of standardizing types and configurations across the group.

Agree. Any LX "order" for the 748 will be an LH order with the allocation to LX. A top up order the 748 (above the current 19) with some allocation to LX would do wonders to boost the confidence in the 748 even though they are sister airlines.

Nonetheless, it seems to me that the better replacement for the LX 343 fleet is 346's seconded from LH -- a smaller capacity jump.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-01-23 10:27:08 and read 5370 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 104):
Nonetheless, it seems to me that the better replacement for the LX 343 fleet is 346's seconded from LH -- a smaller capacity jump.

Smaller jump, and a minimum-cost, short-term option that allows LH to test the waters for how well larger LX equipment performs wherever they send it. Then, they can make a more educated decision about how to move forward long term, whether that be a large upgauge to 748s or a modest jump to a 35J or 787-10.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: behramjee
Posted 2013-01-23 12:27:52 and read 4946 times.

Since everyone is adding their 2 cents, I would like to add mine too:

1. I do not believe that the B748i should even be looked by LX management nor even by LH for LX because of the following:

a) Currently, LX's A343s seat 219 pax in a 3 class configuration i.e. 8F/47J/164Y where as LH's B748s in 3 classes seat 392 i.e. 8F/92J/258Y. For any airline to have their largest plane capacity size increase from 219 to 358 aka by 63% and have a chance at selling it consistently year long is totally delusional. You can increase by 30-40% maximum if you have all the right mechanisms in place which LX does, but not by 63% !

b) The B748 is way too big for any LX route to operate on a "year round basis" which is the main point here as its not a carrier that lives on seasonal demand. LX is a premium focused airline that relies more on offering frequencies versus excess capacity on any given route as that is the main demand of corporate high yielding passengers i.e. choice of schedule flexibility when making their travel plans.

Now as far as which plane is ideal for LX in the long run as the perfect A343 replacement, my thoughts are as follows:

a) To begin with, this order I reckon Boeing lost from the get go by still not being clear on their B787-1000X program. Due to this uncertainty on their part, this is another order which they could have gotten a new customer but instead are likely to lose it due to this aircraft type still not being offered for sale in the market place. Just like the A350 family has 3 different types catering to different market size segments, the B787 program too needs a 3rd larger unit complementing the B788 and B789 as neither one of these 2 models can adequately replace the A343 nor the B772ER in the long run.

b) However, since the A343 is more or less the same size as an A359 and with LX's desire to have a bigger plane operate on some of its routes year round, the only plane in today's current environment meeting LX's requirement is the A340-600 which in LH's 3 class layout seats 306 pax i.e. 70 more than LX's A333s aka 30% more. For the time being, this is ideal as it would allow LX the perfect schedule flexibility of having the A333 operate on the under 11 hours routes across its network with a 236 seater A333 and have the A346 operate on the ultra long haul nonstop flights to Latin America, U.S. West Coast and SE Asia where the revenue derived from selling the extra seats on board the A346 (especially the higher yielding F/J class ones) shall come in handy big time.

c) But in order to structure a deal that benefits LX the most in the long run, the order should go to Airbus with the following conditions attached:

i. As a "stop gap capacity measure" in exchange for a size able A350 order, Airbus must supply LX with at least 8-10 A346s until the A350s get delivered.

ii. The A350 version (if it lives up to its expectations) which is ideal for LX's future are both the A359 and the largest member i.e. the A351. The A359 is the perfect replacement candidate aircraft for LX's A333 fleet by 2020-21 as it offers about 10-15% more capacity which is ideal as the airline expects its passenger demand scale to grow by a similar margin if not more within a decade on currently operated A333 routes. A 3 class configured A359 would easily be able to accommodate approximately 260 passengers in a comfortable layout to replace the 236 seater A333s. In addition, due to its much longer range, the A359 can operate all of LX's current long haul routes nonstop without any payload restrictions what so ever so an excellent value for money aircraft for the airline to consider purchasing. Currently, LX operates 14 A333s so if one factors in modest growth for the next 8 years, an order for 18 A359s seems adequate for the airline to order.

iii. In addition to the A359, the larger A351 is the perfect high density long haul premium aircraft for LX to revolve its fleet around during the 2020-30 decade. In a luxurious 3 class configuration, it would easily be able to accommodate 340 passengers and fly up to 13-14 hours nonstop without any payload restrictions. This means having approximately 12% more capacity than today's A346 in LH's 3 class configuration and operated with an aircraft that is destined to have at least 15-20% better operating costs on long haul flights. Currently, LX has 15 A343s operating in its fleet, so once again if you factor in modest growth over the next decade, an order for easily 20 A351s should do justice.

iv. One last very interesting point in LX's favor is that with all the bad publicity surrounding the A351 since Summer 2012, Airbus will bend backwards in offering ultra lucrative deals to blue chip airlines such as LX in order for a large reputable A350-1000X order being placed as they did with CX recently. This in turn can result in LX getting financially attractive large discounts on the purchase price as well as other forms of incentives from the airplane manufacturer in exchange for this order for 20 A351s + 18 A359s which at list prices would be worth over US$ 7 billion.

v. Since LH now tends to order airplanes in bulk for its group subsidiaries as well, it has a fleet of 24 A343s + 18 A333s + 24 A346s that need replacing within a decade as well. Hence for the LH/LX group to really arm twist Airbus into giving a deal that they cannot say no to (in terms of volumetric discounts for a large scale order being placed), the prospective potential order size could very well end up being for 65 A350-900s (for LH/LX combined) + 50 A350-1000X totaling over US$ 20 billion at list prices! And for the latter program, Airbus wins too by getting 2 world famous airline brands such as LH and LX ordering and endorsing the A351 program along side QR/CX which will end up getting more airlines to order this variant in the future.

Thank you for reading and sorry for it being such a long post but I hope you enjoyed it  
Rgds
Behramjee

[Edited 2013-01-23 12:31:49]

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-01-23 15:39:43 and read 4469 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 104):
Nonetheless, it seems to me that the better replacement for the LX 343 fleet is 346's seconded from LH -- a smaller capacity jump.

Still too big in my opinion.

Should also remember that LX's bankrupt predecessor Swissair operated 5 747-300s (they were the launch customer), but 3 of the 5 were combis. I recall several flights even on the combis that were half empty. Those 5 743s and 2 earlier Swissair 742s remain the only Boeing aircraft ever ordered by Swissair or Swiss.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-23 15:57:49 and read 4420 times.

I have long theorized that if LHA went to 4 widebodies they'd be:

1) 787-10 for TATL and Asia
2) A350-1000 for volume routes
3) B748i - Premium Heavy volume routes
4) A380 - High Volume Routes

If that's the group mix, there's no reason at all why LX could not operate a mix of 7810s and 351s. I don't see why a mixed fleet is not possible if the Group's interest are taken into account. After all, it's not like LH is part owner. They own LX in its entirety.

If LH wants to ramp up capacity, they can start transferring 346s to LX as they receive 748s and 388s. Eventually transition to 7810s and 351s. Or even an all 351 fleet. After all, with LX's densities, the 351 would probably only fly with about 300 pax in LX colours.

I still believe this largely comes down to what vision LHA has for LX and how much commonality they intend to enforce. For example, if LH goes 4-class, will LX, OS and SN be expected to as well? And will aircraft buying take that into account? Or would there simply be 4 widebody types but in different configurations? Or would LHA work with a hi-lo mix where LX and LH operate in 4-class (F/J/Y+/Y) and OS and SN operate in 2-class (J/Y), with 4 types and 6-8 configurations in total?

Will be interesting to see what the eventual vision is for LX. Lots of potential to be sure.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: mcg
Posted 2013-01-23 16:29:08 and read 4318 times.

Quoting something (Reply 98):
You make me realize that the accounting of the LH group must be complicated when they move planes from one entity to another. How would they estimate the "fair price" of an A346, a capable aircraft that nobody is selling or buying currently ?

By determining the ''operating value''. It is all a very complicated calculation, ie. how much money could LX earn with this plane that they'd forfeit by not upgauging their aircraft size.

I'd bet that any such calculation would come remarkably close to LH's book value of the aircraft.

I'm not a fleet planner but it intuitivly seems to me that the A346 is the right answer. More capacity (but not too much), a high level of commonality with LX's 333 and available at resonable cost (the real cost of the aircraft is what LH could get for them second-hand, which I think is not a lot).

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-01-23 18:00:58 and read 4175 times.

Why doesn't LX just buy a bunch of new A350-900's and A340-600's from airlines that no longer need them for their A340-300 replacement?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: baw716
Posted 2013-01-23 18:37:40 and read 4083 times.

Quoting vegas005 (Reply 87):
My opinion is A340-600 for now...

then

If LH decides to grow ZRH to take advantage of the great airport, cheaper costs etc..., see and order for the 350

Of course my heart says 748i. man that would look great!

Sounds like we agree...

baw716

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: columba
Posted 2013-01-23 21:38:39 and read 3881 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 107):
Should also remember that LX's bankrupt predecessor Swissair operated 5 747-300s (they were the launch customer), but 3 of the 5 were combis. I recall several flights even on the combis that were half empty.

But those were different times, Swissair was all by themself back then. Now Swiss is a part of Lufthansa and Star Alliance .

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-01-23 22:24:39 and read 3801 times.

Not to forget that according to http://www.lh-taufnamen.de/lufthansa/ 15 346 are still equipped with the old cabin, neither First nor Business have been updated nor it is mentioned to be planned. So why spend money on new seats at LH and LX too? Why not transfer some 346 to LX and order some more 748 for LH with the latter being more efficient and featuring the latest cabin?

I'm wondering if it will be possible for LX to operate a mixed long-range fleet of A and B aircraft with regards to the crew planning and taken into account the possible fleet size of each. For LH fleet size it might be possible but for LX?

Anyone out there who can clear my doubts?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-01-24 03:28:05 and read 3298 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 106):
For the time being, this is ideal as it would allow LX the perfect schedule flexibility of having the A333 operate on the under 11 hours routes across its network with a 236 seater A333 and have the A346 operate on the ultra long haul nonstop

I agree that this is the most logical progression for LX, but where are the A346s going to come from? Are there any A346s currently or will soon to be for sale / for lease?

The most obvious place that the A346s could come from would be LH, but do LH have any plans to retire their A346s yet?

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: na
Posted 2013-01-24 03:41:05 and read 3229 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 100):
Quoting na (Reply 92):
Not talking about Y-class, but the 748I (and all 747s) offer superior F- and J-class cabins by concept that cant be found elsewhere. You cant deny that. Its sad that so many fleet planners fail to acknowledge that.

That has more to do with the airline's product than the plane itself.

And that is wrong. Seats you can stick everywhere, but a unique compartment is unique. And the 747 has two of them not to be found elsewhere and imho they are superior to other types (with the exception of the grandness of the A380).

Quoting airbazar (Reply 100):
If you're stuck in the upper deck business class, it's crampped and not that pleasant. I've been up there a few times.

More like a big business jet. Quite intimate and I like it. Better, and quieter than the generic square run-though compartments on the 777/A330 and the like which offer no differentiation.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 114):
I agree that this is the most logical progression for LX, but where are the A346s going to come from? Are there any A346s currently or will soon to be for sale / for lease?

VS has returned 2 or 3 early-builts very recently.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: behramjee
Posted 2013-01-24 03:50:07 and read 3185 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 114):
I agree that this is the most logical progression for LX, but where are the A346s going to come from? Are there any A346s currently or will soon to be for sale / for lease?

The most obvious place that the A346s could come from would be LH, but do LH have any plans to retire their A346s yet?

QR has 4 A346s up for sale along with another half a dozen from VS and TG each respectively. Obviously for all some investment in retrofitting the planes to LX's standards would have to be made but that can be written off if a good purchase deal can be agreed upon.

For LX's immediate requirement though, I think TG (6 A346s) has the perfect configuration to meet their high yielding needs i.e. 267 with 8F/60J/199Y which is 48 more seats than their current A343s so 20% capacity increase hence perfect as LX's A343s seat 8F/47J/164Y.

Topic: RE: Swiss Considering 748 As 343 Replacement
Username: ba319-131
Posted 2013-01-24 04:02:52 and read 3124 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 116):
QR has 4 A346s up for sale along with another half a dozen from VS and TG each respectively. Obviously for all some investment in retrofitting the planes to LX's standards would have to be made but that can be written off if a good purchase deal can be agreed upon.

- I don't think the requirement to re-configure cabins would be an issue to LX, they have taken used A340's previously.


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