Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5659001/

Topic: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-01-13 06:15:11 and read 19372 times.

Well it's almost time for WN/FL to release the next schedule extensions.
Will they convert more cites over to WN?
Will FL get new international flying feeding the new WN code share network?
Predictions?
My predictions or what I would like to see are:
DCA flights being reshuffled with MKE and ATL seeing service scaled back making use of slots for MDW flts.
RIC,PNS,GRR,DAY now with a code share in place seeing a reshuffling of FL flying to connect these cites with WN hubs like MDW,DEN,STL and HOU.
New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).
New weekend only non stop flying to SJU flying to feed holiday ship passengers.
FINALLY A CODE SHARE               
wnfg 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: jfklganyc
Posted 2013-01-13 06:26:37 and read 19347 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
FINALLY A CODE SHARE

That is really all that matters at this point. Everything else is just icing on the cake

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ChrisNH
Posted 2013-01-13 06:26:45 and read 19348 times.

Of course there's a whole list of routes that WN should fly, but you touched on one of them: MHT-ATL. DL has this to themselves, and they do nothing with it. A single ill-timed RJ for a 952-mile run right now. Sure, one or 2 MD-88s in peak season, but business travelers don't even HAVE a 'peak season.'

So, I would love to see WN go 2x daily MHT-ATL...even if they sacrificed one or two existing BWI runs to do it.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-13 07:16:07 and read 19230 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):

An awful lot there. I doubt we ever see ATL-MHT. PNS-HOU is a no brainer at some point.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-01-13 07:26:22 and read 19193 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):

We can dream about WN ATL-ISP, but I doubt it. Maybe further down the line though.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-01-13 08:50:27 and read 19037 times.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1):

Agreed!!
When it comes to this merger It's made me scratch my head so much it hurts.
When you look at the history of WN growth or use the Morris Air merger as example how they would handle this merger.
It almost seems like they took the OLD play book and threw it out the door.
Which may have been a good plan or may not have been a good plan only time will tell.
I hope for the future of every WN employee 2013-2014 brings out a lot of new ROIC finally with this merger.
I still think buying FL was 110% better than F9 would have ever been.
I understand and get the long term goals of shipping off the 717. But being a kid from LGB and of both parents that made the MD95. I was really hoping She would wear WN paint.
sorry for the side track back to predictions..
I hope this next schedule update comes with a Code share and brings things together finally.
This schedule should see something like 3 or 6 FL717 lines be replaced with WN metal.
I'm thinking most of the first Lines will be BWI, MKE and MCO related.
But if the code share plays out then anything is possible.
wnfg 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 08:52:30 and read 19038 times.

So WN will at some point launch GRR-DEN, prompting F9 to pull out of the route. F9 might as well end service the day WN starts it, rather than the compete for a short while, similar to CAK and DAY from DEN. F9 would just plan a new TTN route.

I could see WN having GRR-BWI, MCO, DEN, HOU and TPA (seasonal).

[Edited 2013-01-13 09:10:54]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-01-13 08:54:49 and read 19030 times.

ATL-SAN
HOU-SJU
MSY-CUN
MSY-MBJ
OAK-SJD

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: jporterfi
Posted 2013-01-13 12:07:39 and read 18682 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).

I doubt that ATL-SNA will be started. WN already offers single-plane service routed ATL-PHX-SNA, and I question if they have enough demand to fill a daily n/s on the route. That last point is also valid for ATL-ISP and ATL-MHT, though I know nothing about demand on those routes, so I'd be happy for someone to correct me.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 7):
ATL-SAN

FL used to fly this route several years ago. With the codeshare coming online, I think there is a decent chance that WN will bring this back (using its own metal) because the ATL "focus city" provides plenty of connecting traffic.

Also, how likely is it that STL will be converted to WN-only service? I know that STL is a major operation for WN, and with only 2 destinations served by FL from it, I would think it would be a good candidate for conversion in the near future.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-13 12:12:32 and read 18680 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 6):
I could see WN having GRR-BWI, MCO, DEN, HOU and TPA (seasonal).

GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets with lots of thru or connect traffic, (Ie they dropped IND from MDW) there has to be a local market. That said, without STL or MDW, there is no way to get GRR pax around the midwest or midsouth ( I suppose you could go GRR-BWI-BNA/MSY/BHM etc).

GRR-BWI/MCO are obvious. DEN is likely, but not 100%. I think HOU is too thin (UA flies only one RJ to IAH). STL? If there is local traffic, Id say possibly.

Does WN want to be able to offer their entire network to pax when they open a new market? There are few markets where the answer to that is No, for instance DSM (can be done but circuitous) ditto FNT. I dont know WN's strategy WRT cities like DSM and GRR and FNT.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: sdoyon
Posted 2013-01-13 12:24:09 and read 18642 times.

I'd love to see DCA fully converted, but that's probably not going to happen. Also, sad to say, I highly doubt 4x MKE-DCA is going to be sticking around for much longer--is this now a WN monopoly route?

MHT-ATL would have been good on FL, but I fear that it'll never happen on WN. Why connect in ATL when BWI is closer and has (or probably would have) far more daily options?

I'm excited to see more SJU. I have a feeling WN, NK, and B6 are definitely going to pick up where AA has cut.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-01-13 13:22:57 and read 18551 times.

Just gotta throw my    in here, eh?

I would think that converting the stations that have the least amount of current FL flights might make the most sense to convert in this next announcement. From info that I have (and it could be a bit dated, and I certainly don't claim this as exactly accurate at present, but still will get my idea across...) is that there are a number of stations with only routes to ATL on FL, and that these could get priority in this transition. So from my knowledge these stations include LAX, PHX, ICT, MCI, STL, MSY, PNS, JAX, MEM and RDU. These are stations that could simply change their FL metal to WM metal and be done in this transition to all WN flights. A few more stations have FL flights to both ATL and MCO, such as BUF, DTW, and RIC. They could go next.

MCO is a station that seems to be getting not so much attention here as ATL is. I do believe that they were the second largest station for FL...... and yet ATL is grabbing almost all of the spotlight. There's about 20 or so destination from there that will need attending to as well.......

Since I always like DEN expansion, there is a void here to the upper New York State area here. BUF and ALB could probably support enough O&D traffic year round to support nonstop flights here year around. ROC is strong here in the summer months. So will WN get a jump here on UA and F9?

Again, as always...... just my   ......

 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-01-13 14:51:42 and read 18411 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
Well it's almost time for WN/FL to release the next schedule extensions.

Can you please include the effective dates for this next extension? It's this fall, I think...

bb

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: infiniti329
Posted 2013-01-13 15:18:12 and read 18337 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
ATL-ISP

That definitely will not happen before LGA-ATL on WN metal....

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 16:01:58 and read 18243 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 9):
GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets with lots of thru or connect traffic, (Ie they dropped IND from MDW) there has to be a local market. That said, without STL or MDW, there is no way to get GRR pax around the midwest or midsouth ( I suppose you could go GRR-BWI-BNA/MSY/BHM etc).

GRR-BWI/MCO are obvious. DEN is likely, but not 100%. I think HOU is too thin (UA flies only one RJ to IAH). STL? If there is local traffic, Id say possibly.

When it dropped IND-MDW, gone was IND-MDW-MSP. Instead it offers IND-DEN-MSP which is awkward (974 miles, and then 679 miles) when a connection stop at MDW is 161 and 349 miles, and a natural nonstop is 502 miles. So if awkward is fine for a couple of routes from IND, it'd be done for smaller stations like GRR.

WN decided it wasn't worthwhile to have optimal connections to everywhere, but focus on specific routes and accessibility. As for GRR, HOU would help for midsouth coverage a bit, but it might be thin, but a 1x daily could be tested, maybe once WN can sell international flights from HOU. Along with it being a major market, HOU will be a gateway for that vacation stuff WN wants to sell.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 8):
FL used to fly this route several years ago. With the codeshare coming online, I think there is a decent chance that WN will bring this back (using its own metal) because the ATL "focus city" provides plenty of connecting traffic.

It also helps that WN is the leading carrier at SAN, and San Diego is a destinational place, thus the ability to stimulate traffic. I think it's actually one of the lower hanging fruits and surprised WN didn't launch it, but instead went for ATL-ORF.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-01-13 16:42:13 and read 18147 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 12):

With the 717 lines being replaced 3 at a time.
I think from here until 2015 you will see a lot of little schedule releases with 1 or 3 month extensions.
I could have this wrong but I think this is a extinction for SEP only.
This time around there really is no Rumor mill from inside WN.
I'm for once impressed no one's talking about anything when it comes to new flying.
Example AirTran MDW service to Punta Cana and Montego Bay never got leaked.
Which is rare for WN BUT good it keeps everything a surprise.
With Sept being a slow season I could see WN reshuffle some flying to ADD MEM,PNS,RIC and GRR into the WN network.
My predictions going off what they did with the size of the other FL conversions last round are.
MEM 2 HOU,2 MDW,1 BWI, 1 MCO.
PNS 2 HOU,2 STL ,1 BWI.
RIC 2 MDW,1 HOU,1 TPA,1 MCO.
GRR 2 BWI,2 STL,1 DEN.
wnfg


           

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: infiniti329
Posted 2013-01-13 17:04:24 and read 18083 times.

Code-share is coming final kinks are being worked out

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-13 17:23:56 and read 18045 times.

The SWA schedule extension is through Sept 27 on Feb 4.

----

If testing went as planned in December (IDK) then this is the code share schedule:

soft rollout, January,
Phase 1 more full rollout in February,
Full rollout in March.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 15):
I think from here until 2015 you will see a lot of little schedule releases with 1 or 3 month extensions.

I agree, more extensions but with less length to them would make sense with 3 717s leaving each month.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 15):
My predictions going off what they did with the size of the other FL conversions last round are.

I think those are solid guesses, I have a feeling that RIC-ATL will be kept though, whether its at WN or FL is to be seen.

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
I'd love to see DCA fully converted

For DCA, when all is said and done, I could see
5 ATL (FL)
5 MDW (WN)
1 MKE (WN or FL)
1 RSW, PBI or FLL depending on which they want to operate with that slot (FL)
2 STL (WN)
1 AUS (WN)
and 1 HOU if they get it (WN)

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA

I think these are fair additions, I don't think we will see them all in one addition though. I do also expect to see SAN at some point.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: nomorerjs
Posted 2013-01-13 17:36:48 and read 18006 times.

MEM: BWI, HOU, MDW
RIC: HOU, MDW
PNS: BWI, HOU, MDW
Wild card: GEG or BOI to MDW (why not?)

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2013-01-13 18:24:49 and read 17899 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 11):
Since I always like DEN expansion, there is a void here to the upper New York State area here. BUF and ALB could probably support enough O&D traffic year round to support nonstop flights here year around

I would love to see DEN-BUF/ALB, although I doubt it, especially in the case of ALB. However, BUF already has PHX and LAS service, and I believe they are the only medium sized city in the Northeast still with PHX service, as WN dropped MHT-PHX and PVD-PHX.

MHT has both DEN and LAS service, as does BDL. ALB only has LAS, and PVD only has DEN. I'm worried that if WN were to launch ALB-DEN, we might see LAS get cut back.

BUF-DEN has about 118 PDEW, while ALB-DEN has around 81 PDEW. ROC-DEN has 69 PDEW.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 18:33:01 and read 17873 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
For DCA, when all is said and done, I could see
5 ATL (FL)
5 MDW (WN)
1 MKE (WN or FL)
DCA will be interesting to watch. It might not want to cut MKE too much, as it's an exclusive route and necessary for preserving it's position at MKE. And adding DCA-MDW at 5x will make IAD-MDW have to shrink drastically. Maybe something like 5 ATL, 3 MDW, 3 MKE from DCA, and the other routes, and 3 MDW, 2 BNA, 2 DEN from IAD.

[Edited 2013-01-13 18:34:08]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-13 18:42:55 and read 17840 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 20):
Maybe something like 5 ATL, 3 MDW, 3 MKE from DCA, and the other routes, and 3 MDW, 2 BNA, 2 DEN from IAD.

IAD is a niche station. Why does it need BNA service?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 19:03:53 and read 17790 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 21):
IAD is a niche station. Why does it need BNA service?

I don't think it's niche. Why does it need DEN?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-13 19:09:31 and read 17774 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 22):
I don't think it's niche. Why does it need DEN?

DEN and MDW offer connections. They do not want to serve IAD large so they offer 2 cities with many connections.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-13 19:19:14 and read 17735 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 22):
I don't think it's niche. Why does it need DEN?

How is it anything but niche? Is there any other station like it?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 19:30:22 and read 17940 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 24):
How is it anything but niche? Is there any other station like it?

It's not niche like a leisure destination or some remote market. Small doesn't mean niche. WN at CLE is small too, and it has BNA service of all things.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 23):
DEN and MDW offer connections. They do not want to serve IAD large so they offer 2 cities with many connections.
BNA offers connections to all the other major east coast airports WN services except DCA, so IAD would be the closest alternative.

[Edited 2013-01-13 19:33:28]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-13 19:39:15 and read 17934 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
It's not niche like a leisure destination or some remote market.

It's very much a "remote market" in the WN world because of its proximity to BWI. Thus, it supports only very limited service.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
WN at CLE is small too, and it has BNA service of all things.

CLE has more than twice as many flights as IAD.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-13 19:42:54 and read 18120 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
WN at CLE is small too, and it has BNA service of all things.

Well its not nearly as small and they have a different purpose in the WN network.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
BNA offers connections to all the other major east coast airports WN services except DCA, so IAD would be the closest alternative.

Why serve BNA when most if not all of those cities can be served from MDW. They don't want a big presence at IAD.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-01-13 19:55:39 and read 18071 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 19):
BUF-DEN has about 118 PDEW, while ALB-DEN has around 81 PDEW. ROC-DEN has 69 PDEW.

I think that maybe these are slow season numbers..... and those numbers do just about double in the summer months...... which at that point is enough to fill the F9 planes......

 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: QANTAS747-438
Posted 2013-01-13 20:03:07 and read 18072 times.

I will estimate that WN will announce new Caribbean routes on WN metal. Now that they're certified to fly to places like SJU, I can see them trying to do BWI-SJU or other Class II routes which will eventually lead to ETOPS flying.

Also, maybe WN schedules to MEM and PNS.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 20:30:40 and read 18001 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 27):
Why serve BNA when most if not all of those cities can be served from MDW.
WN is strong at BNA and has been linking BNA to most major business markets, including service to both NY airports (LGA and EWR) from BNA. This is why I mentioned it possible. Connections you brought up, but it'd have connections via BNA, better to Texas and south than MDW.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 27):
They don't want a big presence at IAD.

Yup, and I didn't indicate anything like a big presence at IAD. No thanks for making it seem like I was discussing that.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 26):
It's very much a "remote market" in the WN world because of its proximity to BWI. Thus, it supports only very limited service.
DCA has closer proximity to BWI but DCA is niche because of slot dependency. Yes, IAD supports limited service currently but it's ancillary to DCA more than BWI now with WN/FL in DCA. IAD and DCA are closer together in Washington MSA than BWI (in Baltimore-Towson MSA) to any of the two.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 26):
CLE has more than twice as many flights as IAD.

This Tuesday, CLE has 6x MDW, 3x BWI and 3x BNA. IAD has 5x MDW and 2x DEN. I count 12 departures vs. 7 departures. Am I missing some besides some seasonal flying that isn't available now? It still seems in the small category.

[Edited 2013-01-13 20:44:55]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-13 20:43:03 and read 17965 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 30):
better to Texas and south than MDW.

If the were to add a city south from IAD it would most likely be HOU anyway.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 30):
It still seems in the small category.

They are in different categories.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 30):
Yup, and I didn't indicate anything like a big presence at IAD.

They have had 7 flights for sometime now, there is no indication of that changing, they want BWI and DCA with IAD just there to support the Washington area passengers.

[Edited 2013-01-13 20:43:37]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-13 21:02:28 and read 17930 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
If the were to add a city south from IAD it would most likely be HOU anyway.

Maybe. But, United would still command a premium with the business pax flying into DCA. WN dropped HOU-PHL not BNA-PHL, but there were 3 carriers on HOU-PHL. It didn't launch BOS-HOU but it launched BOS-BNA. BNA is shorter distance than HOU from the east coast. DC is closer to HOU than BOS or PHL so it's maybe and WN could strengthen it's #2 place to the United dominance between DC and Houston.

MCO service restored is also a maybe, as one Florida flight, with connections to places like Key West and other limited destinations.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
They have had 7 flights for sometime now, there is no indication of that changing,

My original post didn't indicate increase of service but possible re-allocating of service at IAD if DCA changes with MDW service.

[Edited 2013-01-13 21:04:57]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-01-13 21:16:40 and read 17903 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
The SWA schedule extension is through Sept 27 on Feb 4.

Thank you for what I think is an important piece of information to the topic being discussed here.

bb

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2013-01-13 21:20:37 and read 17893 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 28):
I think that maybe these are slow season numbers..... and those numbers do just about double in the summer months...... which at that point is enough to fill the F9 planes......

Maybe, but F9 serves neither ALB or BUF.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-01-13 22:25:33 and read 17847 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 34):
Maybe, but F9 serves neither ALB or BUF.

Oooops.... meant to write WN there since this is the subject of the thread..... but at any rate, having no service currently at any airport doesn't stop F9 from entering......eh?

 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: dolphinflyer
Posted 2013-01-14 06:19:12 and read 17120 times.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 19):
I'm worried that if WN were to launch ALB-DEN, we might see LAS get cut back.

While I agree that (for ALB's sake) I'd hate to see ALB-LAS n/s service go away, I would argue that ALB-DEN would offer more bang for the buck, i.e. higher yields, more connections to destinations throughout the west, more of a business rather than leisure market, etc. Having said that, I hope that WN adds ALB-DEN rather than replacing ALB-LAS with ALB-DEN.

Also important to note that the O&D for DEN-PVD and DEN-MHT was lower than either DEN-BUF or DEN-ALB, but in those cases, WN essentially replaced nonstop service to PHX with DEN, i.e. gone were PVD-PHX and MHT-PHX in favor of PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN.

ALB-DEN and BUF-DEN on WN are definitely warranted.

[Edited 2013-01-14 06:21:02]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Mexicana757
Posted 2013-01-14 10:03:45 and read 16909 times.

Well here are my predictions for MDW only.  

MDW-DCA 3X or 4x daily to complement the IAD services. Only UA and AA fly between DCA and Chicago.
MDW-SJU
MDW-MEM 2X

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-01-14 10:59:32 and read 16798 times.

Quoting Mexicana757 (Reply 37):
Only UA and AA fly between DCA and Chicago

Aren't they both hourly or pretty close to hourly?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2013-01-14 11:16:26 and read 16794 times.

Here is my prediction for RDU...

??????

I honestly have no earthly clue.. would love some MSY and MCI but Lawd knows I don't know what is being thought.. if it is even being thought about.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-14 11:41:50 and read 16768 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
Will they convert more cites over to WN?

YES. I think you will see more stations like PNS lose ATL service.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
FINALLY A CODE SHARE
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1):
That is really all that matters at this point. Everything else is just icing on the cake

I can say with fair certainty that scheduling still does not trust the code share timing, so I would not expect to see any ATL routes cut from FL to WN. That coupled with my prior comment means more shrinking in ATL.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
Will FL get new international flying feeding the new WN code share network?

Probably, but I think we have seen that they really don't announce those in the schedule roll out partially because of the time to ask for govt approval.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
DCA flights being reshuffled with MKE and ATL seeing service scaled back making use of slots for MDW flts.

I think that is inevitable. It is possible they have not done it because they want to cry to somebody about how they can't fly to MDW and hope to get slots for free.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).

Not going to happen. I doubt you'll see any new ATL. I think you will see FL continue to be weened down to ATL and a growing number of point to point Florida routes. This is also the Fall schedule change so you are going to see a lot of seasonal pull-downs. I bet there will be a ton of them.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 5):
I still think buying FL was 110% better than F9 would have ever been.

I disagree in most respects.
1) FINANCIAL: I think eliminating F9 would have greatly benefited the profitability of WN because a competitor would be eliminated in a very overcapacity market. One can argue that the merger with FL has reduced WN profitability.
2) SYSTEMS (code share): F9 is on Sabre. Should have been easier, but not E-Z.
3) LABOR: I think that while F9 would have taken a good number of F9 employees, it would not be merger of equals (almost) like the FL deal so my guess is that would make it easier as F9 unions would have very little to bargain with.
4) FLEET: About the same. Airbus parked. 717s parked. F9's fleet was much smaller, so easier.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 6):
So WN will at some point launch GRR-DEN, prompting F9 to pull out of the route.

UA just went back to 2x. You can pick any route and say "I can imagine F9 pulling that route".

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 9):
GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets

Same with FNT essentially. I get the feeling that for political reasons they couldn't close some of these clearly borderline stations like DSM, GRR, FNT, etc.

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
I'd love to see DCA fully converted, but that's probably not going to happen.

Nope. DCA-ATL surely continues and they won't convert it until the code share is fully working.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
The SWA schedule extension is through Sept 27 on Feb 4.

Yes, lots of hacking the Florida schedule.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
soft rollout, January,

Really soft. It's the 14th and not a peep. My guess is this thing continues to go the way it has been going. Delays and disasters.

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 18):

MEM: BWI, HOU, MDW
RIC: HOU, MDW
PNS: BWI, HOU, MDW
Wild card: GEG or BOI to MDW (why not?)

MEM would seem to make sense, BUT I get the impression that WN is playing really nice with DL right now. Might be 717 related. Not sure. I think MEM is going to be put off.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 29):
I will estimate that WN will announce new Caribbean routes on WN metal.

Not on WN metal. I don't think the WN systems can handle that. Gonna be a while.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-14 11:50:45 and read 16747 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
YES. I think you will see more stations like PNS lose ATL service.

Unfortunately yes. Clark Howard who was so excited about WN, will end up disappointed in what WN does to ATL in the end.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-14 12:23:30 and read 16660 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
YES. I think you will see more stations like PNS lose ATL service.

Any market that doesn't have substantial high yield O&D will get cut. That is a no brainer.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
I disagree in most respects.
1) FINANCIAL: I think eliminating F9 would have greatly benefited the profitability of WN because a competitor would be eliminated in a very overcapacity market. One can argue that the merger with FL has reduced WN profitability.

You could argue the same with F9 pulling profitability down. In fact you could interchange FL and F9 for your entire argument. FL was holding down the eastern US pretty well, only one direction to grow. West.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
2) SYSTEMS (code share): F9 is on Sabre. Should have been easier, but not E-Z.

Why? The existing WN res system has been altered significantly since the TZ code-share (who was on Sabre). Regardless its done and this will be a non-issue soon.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
3) LABOR: I think that while F9 would have taken a good number of F9 employees, it would not be merger of equals (almost) like the FL deal so my guess is that would make it easier as F9 unions would have very little to bargain with.

Eh, except for a few issues here and there, there haven't been anywhere near the bumps like UA/CO or US/HP.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
4) FLEET: About the same. Airbus parked. 717s parked. F9's fleet was much smaller, so easier.

Non-issue now since the 717 fleet has a home and WN is looking at a revenue neutral solution.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
Really soft. It's the 14th and not a peep. My guess is this thing continues to go the way it has been going. Delays and disasters.

I would think common sense would take over here. Once they get the changes made they obviously need to train everyone on how to handle it. It takes time. Kelly stated it would be Q1 2013 for the roll out. I'm not really seeing all these disasters you keep spouting. Perhaps it would be best if you stick to filling the galleys and making food and leave the airline operations part to those that actually know what they are doing.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Mexicana757
Posted 2013-01-14 12:47:37 and read 16601 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 38):
Aren't they both hourly or pretty close to hourly?

UA has hourly service, AA has about 8x daily between DCA-ORD.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-14 12:59:46 and read 16595 times.

Here's a master list for reference I have kept up in previous schedule releases. Everything in the route list has been announced. Please let me know if this needs any corrections:

FL only cities:

Domestic:
MEM
GRR
PNS
RIC

International:
AUA
BDA
NAS
CUN
MEX
SJD
MBJ
PUJ

New upcoming routes (WN operated unless noted):

MCI-MSP (starts February 14)
EYW-MSY (March 4)
EWR-AUS (March 9)
EWR-MSY (March 9)
EWR-BNA (March 9)
BKG-MDW (starts March 9, FL ends March 8)
BKG-DAL (starts March 9)
BKG-HOU (starts March 9, FL ends March 8)
BKG-MCO (Saturday only, starts March 9, FL ends March 8)
LGA-MKE (transferring from FL in March)
CMH-TPA (transferring from FL in March)
DEN-SJD (FL, March 10)
CLT-BWI, MDW, HOU, MCO (starts April 14, all FL routes from CLT end April 13)
ROC-BWI, MDW, MCO, TPA (starts April 14, all FL routes from ROC end April 13)
FNT-BWI, MCO, TPA (starts April 14, all FL routes from FNT end April 13)
TPA-SJU (starts April 14)
MCO-SJU (starts April 14)
PWM-BWI (starts April 14, FL ends April 13)
BOS-MCI (starts April 14)
HOU-PIT (starts April 14)
BWI-PUJ ( starts April 14 on FL equipment, pending government approval)
MDW-MBJ (starts April 14 on FL equipment, pending government approval)
MDW-PUJ (starts May 19 on FL equipment, pending government approval)
BWI-SJU (starts June 2, FL ends June 1)
LGA-HOU (starts June 2)
MDW-TUL (starts June 2)
ICT-DAL (starts June 2)
ICT-MDW (starts June 2)
ICT-LAS (starts June 2)

Additional frequencies to note effective June 2:

SNA-SJD (FL going from 1x daily to 2x daily)
BWI-BDA (FL going from 4x weekly in May to daily in June)
MCO-SJU (WN going from 3x to 4x daily)

Seasonal returns announced for Spring/Summer (all WN equipment):

Spring:
SEA-BWI
CLE-LAS
MCI-OAK
SAN-STL
STL-ECP
OKC-MCO (runs daily for about two months)

June starts:
SEA-ATL
SEA-BNA
SEA-HOU
SEA-MCI
AUS-PDX
LAS-MHT

Seasonal cuts announced for next Spring/Summer:

Spring:
RSW-BNA
RSW-BOS
RSW-ISP
MCO-DAY
MCO-IND
PBI-PIT
PBI-PVD
TPA-GRR (FL)
RSW-DTW (FL)
RSW-FNT (FL)
RSW-GRR (FL)
RSW-CAK (FL)

Summer:
RSW-BDL (June 2)
TPA-ORF (June 2)
RSW-PVD (June 2)

Routes to be cut permanently:

EWR-BWI (ends March 8)
BKG-ATL (FL ends March 8)
BKG-BWI (FL ends March 8)
BOI-PDX (ends April 13)
BUR-DEN (ends April 13)
HOU-PHL (ends April 13)
ATL-FNT (FL ends April 13)
ATL-CLT (FL ends April 13)
ATL-ROC (FL ends April 13)

June 2 cuts:
ABQ-TUS
OAK-RNO
LIT-STL
BHM-JAX
BHM-MSY
ATL-ICT (FL ends June 1)

New FL flights to supplement WN flights:

Spring:
MCO-STL
MCO-MCI
BUF-TPA
MDW-FLL
MCO-MSY (March 4)

FL only routes that will again fly in the Spring:
BUF-FLL
MCO-MSP (transitioned to WN on Nov. 4 then goes back to FL)
PHL-PBI
PHL-RSW


Shifting from WN to FL seasonally (June 2):
FLL-RDU
FLL-MKE

Seasonal FL supplements to WN flights:

Spring:
BOS-MKE
TPA-MDW
TPA-CMH
RDU-MCO (not sure if this is permanent)
RDU-TPA (not sure if this is permanent)
RDU-FLL (not sure if this is permanent)

Summer (June 2):
TPA-HOU
TPA-RDU

Shortest currently flown WN routes in miles:

AUS-HOU 148
BWI-ORF 159
DAL-OKC 181
CRP-HOU 187
AUS-DAL 189
HOU-SAT 192
FLL-TPA 197

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 15):
My predictions going off what they did with the size of the other FL conversions last round are.
MEM 2 HOU,2 MDW,1 BWI, 1 MCO.
PNS 2 HOU,2 STL ,1 BWI.
RIC 2 MDW,1 HOU,1 TPA,1 MCO.
GRR 2 BWI,2 STL,1 DEN.
wnfg
Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 16):
Code-share is coming final kinks are being worked out

That would be huge.

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 18):
MEM: BWI, HOU, MDW
RIC: HOU, MDW
PNS: BWI, HOU, MDW
Wild card: GEG or BOI to MDW (why not?)

I'm guessing MEM and RIC may get an MCO and or TPA but who knows. I like your idea of GEG and BOI-MDW but unfortunately neither one has been getting any WN "luv" lately.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).
Not going to happen. I doubt you'll see any new ATL.
ISP can't even maintain MDW service to I doubt we will ever see ATL-ISP either. ATL-MHT probably isn't worth bothering with. ATL-SNA I doubt as well.

Quoting dolphinflyer (Reply 36):
ALB-DEN and BUF-DEN on WN are definitely warranted.

Seems reasonable - and as you said LAS/PHX may be cut from ALB/BUF if DEN was added.

[Edited 2013-01-14 17:05:33]

[Edited 2013-01-15 10:47:54]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-14 13:19:20 and read 16548 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Unfortunately yes. Clark Howard who was so excited about WN, will end up disappointed in what WN does to ATL in the end.

That freight train is already gaining a lot of speed.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Any market that doesn't have substantial high yield O&D will get cut. That is a no brainer.

So, pretty much everything is getting cut? Few have enough local O&D for 12 DL flights plus WN.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
You could argue the same with F9 pulling profitability down. In fact you could interchange FL and F9 for your entire argument. FL was holding down the eastern US pretty well, only one direction to grow. West.

That makes no sense. FL and WN had hardly any head to head overlap. WN overlapped nearly every F9 route at that point. I'm surprised you don't know the networks better than that.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
2) SYSTEMS (code share): F9 is on Sabre. Should have been easier, but not E-Z.

Why? The existing WN res system has been altered significantly since the TZ code-share (who was on Sabre). Regardless its done and this will be a non-issue soon.

It's not only about the WN system. The reason they are going toward Amadeus is because neither system is very good with code share. JetBlue left Open Skies/New Skies because of the code share issues, remember?

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Kelly stated it would be Q1 2013 for the roll out.

And we are 14 days in and there is not an official date even set for it.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
I'm not really seeing all these disasters you keep spouting.

Have you seen the loads on ORF-ATL or SDF-ATL or all the other routes that expected code share. Go look and do this 
Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Perhaps it would be best if you stick to filling the galleys and making food

It's interesting that you assume everyone who works in the airline catering industry makes the food. If you work for an airline I guess I'd assume you drain excess grease from the baggage tug exhaust systems.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2013-01-14 13:20:38 and read 16541 times.

You forgot seasonal 2nd AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN-RDU AND A 2nd permanent RSU-STL... And FL is doing RDU-MCO/FLL/TPA replacing 2/1/1 respectively...

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-14 13:25:10 and read 16522 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
not an official date even set for it.

And you know this how.... I can promise you there is a set date and we just don't know it.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
Have you seen the loads on ORF-ATL or SDF-ATL or all the other routes that expected code share. Go look

And those are with a very limited presence in ATL.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):

I'm not even gonna get into the rest, the WN world is ending in your mind and it will turn out just like it did on 12/21/12.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Mexicana757
Posted 2013-01-14 13:43:46 and read 16495 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 44):
MDW-PUJ (starts April 14 on FL equipment, pending government approval)

The MDW-PUJ start date is May 19.  

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-14 14:42:48 and read 16455 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
That makes no sense. FL and WN had hardly any head to head overlap. WN overlapped nearly every F9 route at that point. I'm surprised you don't know the networks better than that.

Yeah I guess the build up of operations at BWI, MKE, and MDW really meant nothing. How foolish of me. I should have known that FL would have stopped expanding those focus operations to keep from stepping on WN's toes.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
And we are 14 days in and there is not an official date even set for it.

Really? Interesting.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
It's interesting that you assume everyone who works in the airline catering industry makes the food. If you work for an airline I guess I'd assume you drain excess grease from the baggage tug exhaust systems.

LOL. That's cute.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
And you know this how.... I can promise you there is a set date and we just don't know it.

Everything is in motion already to get it kicked off, we just don't know the release date - publicly - yet.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
I'm not even gonna get into the rest, the WN world is ending in your mind and it will turn out just like it did on 12/21/12.

Indeed. Another WN thread, same responses to be expected. Ahh well, what can you do but just laugh at them.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2013-01-14 14:50:49 and read 16456 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 44):
ABQ-TUS

Now this is a surprise. WN has served this route for a very long time, and now there are no nonstop flights between ABQ and TUS, forcing pax to connect in PHX.

EDIT: However, according to this article, the average load factor from August 2011 to July 2012 was only 61.2%:
http://www.insidetucsonbusiness.com/...a-504e-11e2-92ba-0019bb2963f4.html

[Edited 2013-01-14 14:53:49]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-14 15:28:31 and read 16347 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 49):
Everything is in motion already to get it kicked off, we just don't know the release date - publicly - yet.

  

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 49):
Indeed. Another WN thread, same responses to be expected. Ahh well, what can you do but just laugh at them.

  

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-14 16:27:52 and read 16311 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 46):
You forgot seasonal 2nd AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN-RDU AND A 2nd permanent RSU-STL... And FL is doing RDU-MCO/FLL/TPA replacing 2/1/1 respectively...
Quoting Mexicana757 (Reply 48):
The MDW-PUJ start date is May 19.

Corrected, thanks. I didn't include DEN-RDU/STL as those are frequency adjustments (sorry, this is complicated enough just doing routes).

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 50):
Now this is a surprise. WN has served this route for a very long time, and now there are no nonstop flights between ABQ and TUS, forcing pax to connect in PHX.

EDIT: However, according to this article, the average load factor from August 2011 to July 2012 was only 61.2%:
http://www.insidetucsonbusiness.com/....html

This is basically an exit of WN in the market as US is the only viable option for getting to TUS from ABQ without going way out of the way.

WN seems pretty consistent on hacking away at low load-factor routes the past several schedule changes. WN seems, at least from my observations, to be cutting long-time low performing routes that they've hung around on in the past for decades.

With this new outlook on profitability and a 15% return on investment (ROI), I'm really questioning the viability of CRP as a station. It consistently runs very low loads and is a short flight to HOU. Of course questions remain on whether WN would close a very long-time station and also how yields look out of CRP.

Kudos to Southwest for making profitability top priority regardless of other factors. Nearly every recent route cut seems to be based a combination of the following (and rightfully so):

Low load factors
Low O&D
Low yields
Short distance

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: mke717spotter
Posted 2013-01-14 20:31:55 and read 16053 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 50):
Now this is a surprise. WN has served this route for a very long time, and now there are no nonstop flights between ABQ and TUS, forcing pax to connect in PHX.


I was also surprised/disappointed to learn that this route was ending because I always assumed there was enough local traffic between the two cities to keep it going, similar to TUS-SAN. I've got quite a few friends going to school with me here in Tucson that are from Albuquerque and I'm sure this will be an inconvenience for them.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-01-15 01:52:49 and read 15901 times.

Quoting dolphinflyer (Reply 36):
While I agree that (for ALB's sake) I'd hate to see ALB-LAS n/s service go away, I would argue that ALB-DEN would offer more bang for the buck, i.e. higher yields, more connections to destinations throughout the west, more of a business rather than leisure market, etc. Having said that, I hope that WN adds ALB-DEN rather than replacing ALB-LAS with ALB-DEN.

Taking about 15 minutes or so..... and using (copying and pasting and formulating on spreadsheet) the T-100 stats and some other googling...... what seems to be the picture here is that is that ALB has only a WN nonstop to LAS that is year round, and no WN (or any other) nonstops to either PHX or DEN. Meanwhile, BUF has WN nonstops to both LAS and PHX year round, but no WN (or any other) nonstop to DEN.

From the T-100 stats using Q3-11 for the high season and Q1-12 for the low season, below is some copied and pasted data, as well as some formulating.......


City-pair, pax-per-day, distance, average Q3-11 low-end fare, with pax cost per mile (fare/distance)

BUF-LAS, 577, 1986, $201, $0.1012
BUF-PHX, 233, 1912, $230, $0.1202
BUF-DEN, 218, 1359, $217, $0.1600

ALB-LAS, 241, 2237, $239, $0.1030
ALB-PHX, 120, 2159, $228, $0.1057
ALB-DEN, 172, 1610, $259, $0.1611

Same as above but for Q1-12

BUF-LAS, 382, 1986, $221, $0.1116
BUF-PHX, 254, 1912, $226, $0.1183
BUF-DEN, 120, 1359, $207, $0.1523

ALB-LAS, 198, 2237, $216, $0.0969
ALB-PHX, 97, 2159, $236, $0.1094
ALB-DEN, 97, 1610, $249, $0.1548

It seems that you are spot on with the 'bang for the buck' observation. DEN low-end carrier fares here are an average of 22% to 40% higher with regard to distance, and in most instances, WN is not even the low-end carrier. So WN (or any carrier here) has a range where fares are higher to/from BUF/ALB - DEN than they are to/from BUF/ALB - PHX/LAS, and it seems that this range may be enough where a bit of downward fare adjustment in a BUF/ALB - DEN route could increase demand while still providing better yields then with PHX/LAS. And other than maybe ALB/PHX, all of the these BUF/ALB to/from DEN/PHX/LAS nonstops seem to be strong enough with O&D to warrant daily nonstops.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 44):
Seems reasonable - and as you said LAS/PHX may be cut from ALB/BUF if DEN was added.

As from above, just for my    I wouldn't think that anything would need to be cut if WN started either or both ALB/BUF and DEN.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 44):

Excellent list. Thanks for all of the time that you put into it and are sharing.....

Quoting iowaman (Reply 44):
Please let me know if this needs any corrections:

Just curious, but would FL starting (or soon to start) both CUN and SJD need to be included in your list?

 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-15 06:10:29 and read 15780 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
I can promise you there is a set date and we just don't know it.

How can you promise something you don't know?

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
And those are with a very limited presence in ATL.

Because there was no code share on the original schedule. You just made my point.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
the WN world is ending in your mind

No, FL is not a big enough part of WN to kill them. It's just not accomplishing what they said and what people hoped it would. They simply eliminated an LCC with lower costs and are moving the airplanes elsewhere.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 49):
Yeah I guess the build up of operations at BWI, MKE, and MDW really meant nothing.

The % overlap to WN was about 1% and the overlap to FL was under 4%. DOT didn't even question it.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-15 08:27:36 and read 15683 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Unfortunately yes. Clark Howard who was so excited about WN, will end up disappointed in what WN does to ATL in the end.

That freight train is already gaining a lot of speed.

WN pulling down ATL will open up gates for Spirit. If Spirit can make DFW work, they can do the same in ATL.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-15 08:33:00 and read 15645 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 56):
WN pulling down ATL will open up gates for Spirit. If Spirit can make DFW work, they can do the same in ATL.

I kind of hope F9 could make that work, but NK is probably more likely given track record.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-15 09:45:35 and read 15574 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
How can you promise something you don't know?

I'm not sure how your company handles it, but there are things employees are trained on/told but are not in the position to acknowledge due to confidentiality requirements. Whether or not you actually respect those is another story, but to simply say that a date doesn't exist is foolish and naive...almost bordering on trolling. The details will be released when they are ready for all of us to know.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
The % overlap to WN was about 1% and the overlap to FL was under 4%. DOT didn't even question it.

You missed my point, which doesn't shock me. Look at where FL was in their network. They had a good portion of everything east of the Mississippi saturated. Where were they going to grow? West. Into more traditional and strong WN markets. The MKE, MDW, and BWI operations were nice additions to the WN network by connecting more dots. However, going forward FL would have been forced to go into more and more WN markets.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: JaxMan19
Posted 2013-01-15 10:41:40 and read 15525 times.

I always thought JAX-MDW was route that was always missing from WN routemap. Is there any reason why they havent started this? also the following could work:

JAX-STL
JAX-MSY
JAX-RDU

these are all routes that have been flown in the past.

on another note, would they convert CLT into all WN metal soon?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-15 10:58:23 and read 15502 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 54):

Just curious, but would FL starting (or soon to start) both CUN and SJD need to be included in your list?

Thanks, I updated it with DEN-SJD, I believe all the other Mexico routes have started.

Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
As from above, just for my I wouldn't think that anything would need to be cut if WN started either or both ALB/BUF and DEN.
Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
ALB-PHX, 97, 2159, $236, $0.1094
ALB-DEN, 97, 1610, $249, $0.1548
Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
It seems that you are spot on with the 'bang for the buck' observation. DEN low-end carrier fares here are an average of 22% to 40% higher with regard to distance, and in most instances, WN is not even the low-end carrier. So WN (or any carrier here) has a range where fares are higher to/from BUF/ALB - DEN than they are to/from BUF/ALB - PHX/LAS, and it seems that this range may be enough where a bit of downward fare adjustment in a BUF/ALB - DEN route could increase demand while still providing better yields then with PHX/LAS. And other than maybe ALB/PHX, all of the these BUF/ALB to/from DEN/PHX/LAS nonstops seem to be strong enough with O&D to warrant daily nonstops.

If WN started ALB-DEN I don't see PHX or LAS being as important in my opinion. 97 pax per day in O&D on a nearly cross-country flight isn't impressive to say the least. ALB-DEN would offer plenty of connecting options to LAS and PHX, and is a much shorter flight, along with higher yields. I suspect a lot of the connecting load would be taken off LAS and PHX if ALB-DEN was started (some pax would fly ALB-DEN-LAX for example compared to ALB-LAS-LAX or ALB-PHX-LAX). Thanks for sharing these numbers as they are very insightful.

Quoting JaxMan19 (Reply 59):
I always thought JAX-MDW was route that was always missing from WN routemap. Is there any reason why they havent started this? also the following could work:

JAX-STL
JAX-MSY
JAX-RDU

IIRC JAX-MDW has been brought up before. Seems reasonable to me they would consider connecting the two, similar to how TUL is getting connected to MDW finally.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-15 12:35:01 and read 15425 times.

Quoting JaxMan19 (Reply 59):

It is unfortunately AirTran ends CLT on april 13 and SWA begins 6 daily flights the next day

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-15 12:52:42 and read 15389 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 61):
It is unfortunately AirTran ends CLT on april 13 and SWA begins 6 daily flights the next day

Why is it unfortunate? For how many schedule releases where you on here upset that WN hadn't announced the CLT conversion yet. Now that they are, you are upset? /facepalm

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-15 13:14:35 and read 15353 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 62):

Well ive been a huge AirTran fan since 1998, I didnt think they would end everything thats why its unfortunate. All this means is higher fares.

facepalm

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-15 13:17:54 and read 15358 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 63):
Well ive been a huge AirTran fan since 1998, I didnt think they would end everything thats why its unfortunate. All this means is higher fares.

All they are ending from CLT is ATL. They are keeping BWI and MCO and adding MDW and HOU.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-15 13:37:05 and read 15321 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 63):
Well ive been a huge AirTran fan since 1998, I didnt think they would end everything thats why its unfortunate. All this means is higher fares.

Ummm. You don understand what a merger/acquisition is all about right? AirTran is a dead brand walking. To not think that is just being oblivious to reality and common business practice.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: kkephart13
Posted 2013-01-15 19:04:22 and read 15097 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 62):
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 61):
It is unfortunately AirTran ends CLT on april 13 and SWA begins 6 daily flights the next day

Why is it unfortunate? For how many schedule releases where you on here upset that WN hadn't announced the CLT conversion yet. Now that they are, you are upset? /facepalm

Im so glad im not the only one that noticed that....

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 64):
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 63):
Well ive been a huge AirTran fan since 1998, I didnt think they would end everything thats why its unfortunate. All this means is higher fares.

All they are ending from CLT is ATL. They are keeping BWI and MCO and adding MDW and HOU.

Adding on to that, They are going from 4 daily FL with minimal options to 6 Daily Southwest flights to more cities with more options. Over time, they may add LAS and DEN. Not too sure how unfortunate that is.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-01-15 20:34:20 and read 15069 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):


Funny you should ask/predict. At BWI which has been "Swalife Country," over 10 years the indoctrination/conversion begins in earnest.

1. February 4: 20 of us CSA officially are re-badged and WN employees.
2. A good portion of our rampers do the conversion dance February 18
3. Finally this March 18 the remaining CSA's approx 60 switch over.
4. The official goal is for BWI to be fully converted this March 18. We will all (CSA) be cross trained to work WN and our remaining flights.

It's the issue of the international certification that will keep the FL colors/name going for at least another year. Once WN achieves this the FL brand, logos, colors will be just blessed memories along with the likes of the Eastern Falcon, VJ "Critter"
(the inspiration for the "zippyjet," etc.

Originally the big conversion (BWI) was not to get underway till mid June. But this detailed process would be "chop suicide" for both of us due to the crushing attack of the "summer people." As long as Visa, AMEX, MC and for that matter China don't tighten the purse strings and demand immediate payback it will be oversold bliss and green for our company. At least with a March switchover at BWI we will have had some time under our belts to deal with the onslaught of the "Summer People.
Of course we are going to fly head on into the craziness that is Spring Break which each year gets longer and is like the Spring training/attack of the Summer people.

I'm not sure of our other medium to large stations my buddy in TPA says the big switch for them could take off in May.
We'll keep you posted and leave the light on for you!   

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-01-16 05:55:20 and read 14888 times.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 67):

Enough already with "Swalife." It's the internal company website and it makes no sense whatsoever to call the company Swalife.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-16 08:06:46 and read 14734 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 65):

I understand what a merger is. I've seen alot of them in my life

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-16 08:22:45 and read 14735 times.

If WN pulls down ATL enough, it will open up gates for a big NK expansion. If NK can make DFW a focus, they can do the same in ATL.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-16 08:46:30 and read 14708 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 70):
If WN pulls down ATL enough, it will open up gates for a big NK expansion. If NK can make DFW a focus, they can do the same in ATL.

Its not gonna happen so this won't be a possibility.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 69):
I understand what a merger is. I've seen alot of them in my life

CLT is nothing but benefiting.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 68):
At BWI which has been "Swalife Country,".

I had to read this sentence multiple times just to figure out what you were talking about. Can you just call it SWA, Southwest or WN.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-16 08:54:46 and read 14682 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 68):
Enough already with "Swalife." It's the internal company website and it makes no sense whatsoever to call the company Swalife.

Agreed. The brand is important to the company, hence why you don't see "Southwest" plastered on FL aircraft that haven't been stripped yet. Using different names, especially in public, can be confusing and should be coached.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 69):
I understand what a merger is. I've seen alot of them in my life

Alright, then why would you be upset about FL going away since that is what always happens? It makes no sense.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 70):
If WN pulls down ATL enough, it will open up gates for a big NK expansion. If NK can make DFW a focus, they can do the same in ATL.

With the type of operation they run, do they really need more than a gate or two? Not really. If they want to do something similar they can. However, this is a WN schedule prediction thread and any NK discussion should probably go elsewhere.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-21 09:31:53 and read 14290 times.

Now just 2 weeks away from release.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-01-21 09:38:57 and read 14271 times.

might we seem some more international stuff out of AUS....

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-01-21 09:43:58 and read 14271 times.

There being really hush hush about this next update.
I hope with the code share we see a lot of new flying.
Hopefully they cut away the over lap markets redeploy some FL flying to fill in the gaps.
I do like the AUS-SJD market. Bring on more new international markets.
wnfg 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-01-21 09:48:50 and read 14242 times.

Certain AUS-International routes would work.....maybe AUS-PTY/SAL

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-24 18:11:51 and read 13875 times.

The SWA route map is showing (as of right now) ATL to RSW and FLL. Since the new schedule comes out on Monday, I assume it is just out early but we will see.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-01-24 18:25:40 and read 13830 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 76):
Certain AUS-International routes would work.....maybe AUS-PTY/SAL

Is that a joke? Because those will never work. Ever.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-01-24 19:36:55 and read 13684 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 78):

How about WN ding FLL-PTY/SAL or DAL-PTY/SAL? If you do AUS it could be a stopping point on say BWI-AUS-SAL. Maybe in the near future (within 1 to 2 years). More possibilities open up as we take delivery of additional new 737-800's.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 72):
Quoting usflyguy (Reply 68):
Enough already with "Swalife." It's the internal company website and it makes no sense whatsoever to call the company Swalife.

   Geez please lighten up. OK, I'll retire it. However I still believe it rolls off the tongue and does sound cute.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 72):

Agreed. The brand is important to the company, hence why you don't see "Southwest" plastered on FL aircraft that haven't been stripped yet. Using different names, especially in public, can be confusing and should be coached.

Too labor intensive taking planes out of service. Just easier to stick with the across the board stripping, re-painting and cabin conversions.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-24 19:59:51 and read 13624 times.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 79):
How about WN ding FLL-PTY/SAL or DAL-PTY/SAL?

There is no local market from DFW area to PTY and SAL. Only AA can make it work with their massive at DFW.

If WN flies to Central America it will be from HOU, never from DAL.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-24 20:02:26 and read 13619 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 80):
never from DAL.

Until the Wright Amendment is completely gone, WN can not fly international from DAL.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-24 20:14:45 and read 13602 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 81):
Until the Wright Amendment is completely gone, WN can not fly international from DAL.

DAL will still not be opened up to international non-stop flights once Wright is gone.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-24 20:29:24 and read 13577 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 82):
DAL will still not be opened up to international non-stop flights once Wright is gone.

Sorry, let me clarify, I meant if/when it is completely removed.

[Edited 2013-01-24 20:31:05]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-25 06:07:53 and read 13377 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 83):

The answer to your question is still.....No.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: EWRandMDW
Posted 2013-01-25 06:28:16 and read 13370 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 9):
GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets with lots of thru or connect traffic, (Ie they dropped IND from MDW) there has to be a local market.

As the 737 flies, it is a fairly short distance. However, for those not familiar with Great Lakes geography, to drive between Chicago and Grand Rapids, one has to go south along western shore of Lake Michigan, northeast through NW Indiana and then up the east side of Lake Michigan. On a nice weather day it can be done in 3 or so hours. But in winter, most of the route is through Lake Effect Snow territory and that 3 hour drive can easily become 4, 5, or more hours in duration. I think GRR can support 2-3 WN flights/day to MDW (even for those going to Chicago and no farther) and there's likely enough local traffic for other services.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-25 08:17:57 and read 13293 times.

Quoting EWRandMDW (Reply 85):
As the 737 flies, it is a fairly short distance. However, for those not familiar with Great Lakes geography, to drive between Chicago and Grand Rapids,

Yes, youre missing a major development with WN in the past 6-12 months. They drop routes if there is no local and too much connecting traffic. Unless a GRR-MDW flight will be more than 50% local, they wont be flying it.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-25 08:43:22 and read 13238 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 86):
They drop routes if there is no local and too much connecting traffic. Unless a GRR-MDW flight will be more than 50% local, they wont be flying it.

Based on the geography, it's not obvious to me that it would not have a significant amount of local traffic. I don't know whether it would be fifty percent, but WN has never shared that (or any percent local) as a criterion for cutting routes.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-25 22:32:52 and read 13043 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 77):
The SWA route map is showing (as of right now) ATL to RSW and FLL. Since the new schedule comes out on Monday, I assume it is just out early but we will see.
http://www.southwest.com/assets/pdfs...les/20130217_20130122_2000/atl.pdf

That will answer all your questions.  

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-01-26 00:30:59 and read 12965 times.

Code-share flights... Oh my!

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: LoneStarMike
Posted 2013-01-26 01:59:49 and read 12918 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 89):
Code-share flights... Oh my!

Yes, but it looks like they're taking baby steps right now. (Probably a good idea to make sure all goes smoothly)

I looked at the FLL & RSW schedules

http://www.southwest.com/assets/pdfs...les/20130217_20130122_2000/fll.pdf

http://www.southwest.com/assets/pdfs...les/20130217_20130122_2000/rsw.pdf

The only code-share flights I'm currently seeing are AirTran flights from FLL/RSW to ATL connecting to Southwest flights to SDF/ORF.

Maybe they'll add a couple more cities with the Feb. 4 extension.

LoneStarMike

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-26 08:45:32 and read 12790 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 88):
That will answer all your questions.

                      
--
Also... heres an update to travelers with AirTran airport info...
http://www.southwest.com/html/air/airport-information.html
--
I would also point out, Southwest codeshare is on airtran.com as well. From the looks of it you can buy an all AirTran pair on Southwest.com but if you try to book an all SWA on airtran.com it will redirect you to southwest.com

[Edited 2013-01-26 09:09:17]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-26 09:00:18 and read 12718 times.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 90):
Yes, but it looks like they're taking baby steps right now. (Probably a good idea to make sure all goes smoothly)

Exactly.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 90):
The only code-share flights I'm currently seeing are AirTran flights from FLL/RSW to ATL connecting to Southwest flights to SDF/ORF.

That would be correct.

Also if you try to go out and book on Southwest.com now here are the details it discloses...

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: GSPflyer
Posted 2013-01-26 09:04:55 and read 12727 times.

I would like to see new routes from GSP.

GSP-STL might work, as well as GSP-FLL or GSP-TPA.

Although very unlikely, I would like to see GSP-DEN or GSP-LAS.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-26 09:24:34 and read 12693 times.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 90):
The only code-share flights I'm currently seeing are AirTran flights from FLL/RSW to ATL connecting to Southwest flights to SDF/ORF.

The ATl-SDF/ORF flights are the ones that desperately need codesharing.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 87):
Based on the geography, it's not obvious to me that it would not have a significant amount of local traffic.

There's not. GRR-MKE had a bit with Frontier.. The drive from GRR-Chicago isnt that bad. It is worse than an equal distance drive Chicago-Peoria, sure but isnt a nightmare by any means. Lots of Chicagoans have cabins in MI in the summer so obviously there are lots of people who are willing to drive it.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-26 09:27:04 and read 12687 times.

For all codeshare talk please go to the designated thread, Southwest Launches Codeshare With AirTran.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-26 12:22:26 and read 12565 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 95):
There's not. GRR-MKE had a bit with Frontier..

My recollection is that C8 saw a decent amount of local traffic on GRR-MDW, but that recollection may be incorrect.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 95):
The drive from GRR-Chicago isnt that bad. It is worse than an equal distance drive Chicago-Peoria, sure but isnt a nightmare by any means.

The portions of the drive in Michigan and Illinois aren't bad. Unfortunately, there's a state in between.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-26 12:32:42 and read 12550 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 97):
My recollection is that C8 saw a decent amount of local traffic on GRR-MDW, but that recollection may be incorrect.

GRR was traditional one of the strongest C8 markets, even well before TZ showed up.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: FL787
Posted 2013-01-26 14:05:39 and read 12465 times.

Anyone else notice that MSP-RSW is now on the route map for some reason?

EDIT: Disregard, somehow I missed WN adding Saturday only service MSP-RSW this spring.

[Edited 2013-01-26 14:07:38]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-27 13:19:02 and read 12200 times.

Im very excited for WN in CLT and i cant wait to fly them.But i cant help bringing up a possibility of DEN from CLT. I understand its early but i say this because UA used to fly CLT-DEN 2 daily an dropped it. There has to be some room for one SWA flight to DEN.

just a thought

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-27 14:12:29 and read 12097 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 100):

Im very excited for WN in CLT and i cant wait to fly them.But i cant help bringing up a possibility of DEN from CLT. I understand its early but i say this because UA used to fly CLT-DEN 2 daily an dropped it. There has to be some room for one SWA flight to DEN.

DEN wouldn't shock me. It has service to a good number of WN markets except for a lot of the smaller cities. CLT definitely isn't a small city.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-27 20:24:02 and read 11962 times.

Given the comments about how "sub-optimal" the FL network is in the quarterly call, I'd expect big changes to ATL. What those are I have no idea. It seems to me that they will close more small, heavily connecting markets, yet they say that they are "committed" to ATL. I think we will see a continued creeping reduction in ATL. They better hope for F9/NK/B6/VX adding flights. In all honesty, I think we will see a net reduction but some new additions in ATL that are more than offset by route drops.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-27 21:23:07 and read 11962 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 102):
I think we will see a continued creeping reduction in ATL.

I don't know, maybe selective hearing, but that same quarterly call said that they expect ATL to keep the same number of flights within 10 flights. They were even hesitant to say a dozen.

Quoting enilria (Reply 102):
I'd expect big changes to ATL.

They said they would be shuffling cities, adding some to ATL and removing some from ATL. But at most a 10 flight reduction from ATL.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-01-28 00:20:17 and read 11888 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 103):

Re ATL: Breaking into ATL besides going International were the two big reasons WN bought us FL. To drastically reduce ATL service would be counter productive to their goals through absorbing FL. Just my 2 cents.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: YXwatcherMKE
Posted 2013-01-28 00:30:56 and read 11878 times.

I know that there is an high number of you out there that want to see the MKE - DCA flights reduced to 1 or 2 flights to none at all, however, I sure hope not. I had to go to D.C. for a conference about two weeks ago and had a hard time finding an open flight for the dates & times going n/s I wanted. but I could not, so WN did not get my business I went out on AA via ORD. With WN being the only carrier currently on the route I have a feeling WN will not be moving any flights from MKE to MDW any time soon unless it was just a oddity that I could not find the flights on the day I wanted to go out and the day before as well. Maybe someone out there can tell me what the plan is.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-28 00:42:27 and read 11878 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 102):
Given the comments about how "sub-optimal" the FL network is in the quarterly call, I'd expect big changes to ATL.

The FL network is sub-optimal because the network is being pulled apart. Of course it isn't as efficient as it once was. That isn't a shocker here.

Quoting enilria (Reply 102):
It seems to me that they will close more small, heavily connecting markets, yet they say that they are "committed" to ATL. I think we will see a continued creeping reduction in ATL.
Quoting enilria (Reply 102):
In all honesty, I think we will see a net reduction but some new additions in ATL that are more than offset by route drops.

If I were to take a guess I would say FNT is probably one of the cities to lose ATL service. ICT and BKG are already going away. I'm not sure on SAT making the transition. MEM, MCI, STL, DAY, CMH, PIT, LGA, TPA, and PBI probably all get converted. I'm not sure if they would keep MSP, DTW, and PNS. I know I'm leaving plenty out, but there is going to be a like of moving pieces when it comes to dehubbing ATL, but still keeping it a very healthy operation.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-28 05:58:59 and read 11790 times.

So if WN is committed to ATL. How many flights are we talking about when it's all said and done.

160 flights. Something like a HOU operation

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: WWTRAVELER99
Posted 2013-01-28 06:48:04 and read 11764 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 107):
So if WN is committed to ATL. How many flights are we talking about when it's all said and done.

160 flights. Something like a HOU operation

I see ATL with 175-185 flights a day. The HOU operation will see about 190-200 a day by 2015.



As far as what will be announced on Feb 4th, I dont see much. Its will only extend the schedule out about 6 weeks. In the aqnnouncement will be MEM, PNS, RIC and GRR. I think in addition the will be a handfull of adds and minuses. I don;t expect much more. Not that this is nothing but simply its things that are already expected. FL stuff will be announced as it happens. I do see additional international destinations throughout 2013. My prediction is we see about 10 new flights (not counting what is already known) and at least one brand new destination.

WW

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-01-28 07:24:50 and read 11711 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 103):
I don't know, maybe selective hearing, but that same quarterly call said that they expect ATL to keep the same number of flights within 10 flights. They were even hesitant to say a dozen.
Quoting airliner371 (Reply 103):
But at most a 10 flight reduction from ATL.

I don't believe it. They said that before and keep reducing it. From what I know and some conjecture, a big pull down of ATL will fund the DAL 2014 build-up. So, they may not pull in the short-term, but it is coming.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 104):
To drastically reduce ATL service would be counter productive to their goals through absorbing FL. Just my 2 cents.

Things have changed. It has gone much more poorly than expected. The primary goal of the merger as of now was that they eliminated a competitor.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 106):
If I were to take a guess I would say FNT is probably one of the cities to lose ATL service.

Good guess...that was already announced! LOL

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-01-28 07:33:32 and read 11674 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
I don't believe it. They said that before

Just like you knew, from your sources, that there was no way the code-share was going to launch in the first quarter of '13, if ever?

So basically, you only take from the call what supports your ideas and if it is counter to what you believe, they aren't being honest...

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-28 07:49:38 and read 11645 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
From what I know

So nothing... You have been wrong too many times to have respect on WN posts anymore. I'm gonna quote usflyguy because he is exactly right, "So basically, you only take from the call what supports your ideas and if it is counter to what you believe, they aren't being honest..."

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 110):
So basically, you only take from the call what supports your ideas and if it is counter to what you believe, they aren't being honest...

   Exactly.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 106):
but there is going to be a like of moving pieces when it comes to dehubbing ATL

Exactly! Some new cities connected to ATL and some more removed but staying within 10 flights of what they have.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 112):
There's not going to be a big DAL build-up. WN doesn't have the gate space to do that

 checkmark  Exactly.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 112):
I'm not sure where you are getting that.

Oh, he just making it up again.

[Edited 2013-01-28 08:03:39]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: FlyPNS1
Posted 2013-01-28 07:52:07 and read 11652 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
They said that before and keep reducing it.

Except that the combined WN+FL has barely shrunk from where FL was two years ago.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
From what I know and some conjecture, a big pull down of ATL will fund the DAL 2014 build-up.

There's not going to be a big DAL build-up. WN doesn't have the gate space to do that, so I'm not sure where you are getting that. WN will certainly add a few flights at DAL, but no big build up.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
It has gone much more poorly than expected.

Only in that the codeshare hasn't gone into place, but now that the codeshare is happening, we'll see how it really goes.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-28 07:52:11 and read 11651 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
From what I know and some conjecture, a big pull down of ATL will fund the DAL 2014 build-up. So, they may not pull in the short-term, but it is coming.

I don't see that much room for a huge buildup at DAL. There will be flights added, but I don't think we are talking about a net gain of 100 flights or anything close to that.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-28 09:08:35 and read 11583 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
I don't believe it. They said that before and keep reducing it. From what I know and some conjecture, a big pull down of ATL will fund the DAL 2014 build-up. So, they may not pull in the short-term, but it is coming.
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 112):
Except that the combined WN+FL has barely shrunk from where FL was two years ago.

What PNS said. From what I've heard, the flight totals are still on target for what was initially expected. So perhaps your sources weren't very good to begin with?

Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
Good guess...that was already announced! LOL

Yeah it was late. LOL

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 112):
There's not going to be a big DAL build-up. WN doesn't have the gate space to do that, so I'm not sure where you are getting that. WN will certainly add a few flights at DAL, but no big build up.

Completely agree. I think the number of nonstop destinations explodes, but at the expense of downsizing existing routes. Does ABQ, for example, need 7 nonstops a day? Probably not. There are ways to grow the DAL network without having a net increase of flights. Though I do feel the flight totals will bump up a bit as they push additional efficiency out of the gate space available.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-01-28 09:34:40 and read 11571 times.

My guess would be 130-140.

BWI, MDW and MCO having the most, and keeping 10 daily departures each.
HOU and FLL having 8 daily departures.
BNA linked with 6 daily departures.
DAL, DCA and DEN having about 5 daily departures each.
JAX, LAS, LAX, MCI, MKE, MSY, RSW, SAT and STL having about 4 daily departures each
PHX with 3 or 4
BOS downsized to 2 or 3x, with JetBlue picking up an equivalent of 3x on BOS-ATL, the two competing against DL.
SFO with 2, OAK with 1
AUS, SAN, ISP with 1 or 2 each
+ some extra padded for other domestic (maybe PIT, PHL, PBI, RIC, RDU and SDF), thus about 140.

It's unclear if WN needs ATL for international connections when it has HOU/SAT, TPA/MCO and BWI, and if it wants to compete directly against DL again.

For any route where WN isn't strong with business pax on the other side of the route (e.g. LGA, PHL, CLE, MSP, DTW, BOS), or it doesn't have a large presence, I'm curious how WN will make it happen competing comfortably against DL to ATL, and or other carriers.

I know I'm going to be slammed on this prediction but if the LGA slots used for MKE-LGA, CAK-LGA, ATL-LGA don't transition out well, I suspect the return of 3 or 4x daily of BWI-LGA, as the latter will help with International, Carribean, Southeast US and Florida connection, other areas of east (e.g. FNT and GRR), sales from NY. A large market to not be able to sell the flights into/out of those markets or have longer awkward connections.

[Edited 2013-01-28 09:35:52]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-28 12:00:29 and read 11452 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 115):

I no I'm going to get blown up for saying this but I really think it would nice to have CLT-ATL. I now it won't happen but it would be cool

What about OKC, TUL, just a thought

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-28 12:05:36 and read 11427 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 115):
My guess would be 130-140.

They just said it would stay within 10 flights of what it is now so because of that I have to disagree.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 115):
ATL-LGA

They will be decreasing ATL-LGA from 8 to 6 daily departures soon and I expect that to stay there, its one of those routes they have to serve.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 115):
I suspect the return of 3 or 4x daily of BWI-LGA

All I am thinking is, it got cut along with EWR-BWI and there has to be a strong reason to cut both so I doubt either will return.

[Edited 2013-01-28 12:06:23]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-28 16:00:08 and read 11302 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 116):
I no I'm going to get blown up for saying this but I really think it would nice to have CLT-ATL. I now it won't happen but it would be cool

What about OKC, TUL, just a thought

Nah, won't knock you for the CLT-ATL thought. Now about using the proper "know" versus "no", we might have something.   hehe

OKC maybe. TUL probably not.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-01-29 19:49:44 and read 11000 times.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 111):
There's not going to be a big DAL build-up. WN doesn't have the gate space to do that, so I'm not sure where you are getting that. WN will certainly add a few flights at DAL, but no big build up


This may very well change. At DAL there is the beginning of an expansion project adding more gates and a state of the art terminal for WN. Currently WN gates at DAL and I guess other airlines date at least back to the early middle 60's. The WN terminal of today reminds me a bit of Concourse H and now G at MIA (H concourse prior to redo in the 90's at MIA), low ceilings, tight passenger holding area/lounges and yes even "mini-me" jet-ways! By this time in five years or less these will be things of the past. I sort of like the old time old school vibe at our WN gates at DAL mini me jet-ways and all.
Sketches and pictures are renderings of wider open modern style facilities. So I can't imagine WN not growing once this project is complete. Otherwise why would such an endeavor be going down at DAL?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-01-29 20:03:55 and read 10991 times.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 118):
At DAL there is the beginning of an expansion project

Beginning in October of 2014, DAL will be limited to 20 gates max, Southwest has full control over 16 of those. This is all part of the wright amendment compromise.

http://www.lovefieldmodernizationprogram.com

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-01-29 20:19:49 and read 10955 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 114):

I doubt there will be 6 daily ATL-BNA flights in fact I doubt there will be any.
OAK and ISP won't have ATL service.

I think overall you have too many daily departures. I could see DTW and MSP maybe having 2-3 flights. PDX in summer.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-01-29 21:35:26 and read 10839 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 119):

I'm totally confused. Then why the expansion and new construction? Talk about confusing law. Always have been stumped by the Wright ammendmant. If you tested me on it right now I'd be sorry to say I'd be part of "F Troop."

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-01-29 21:43:03 and read 10851 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 112):
but I don't think we are talking about a net gain of 100 flights or anything close to that.


I doubt it will even be a net gain of 50 flights with the limited amount of gates as others have said. However, I expect to see slight to moderate frequency reductions to current DAL stations WN serves, particularly the smaller ones like AMA, LBB, and MAF. It makes more sense to allocate the capital (gate space) in DAL to flights like DAL-LAX/MDW/BWI/LAS/PHX/ etc., assuming they get maxed out in DAL eventually. A lot of these DAL-AMA/LBB/MAF-XXX flights are carrying a noticeable amount of thru traffic that is better served non-stop (and probably more profitably as well).

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 114):
My guess would be 130-140.

BWI, MDW and MCO having the most, and keeping 10 daily departures each.
HOU and FLL having 8 daily departures.
BNA linked with 6 daily departures.
DAL, DCA and DEN having about 5 daily departures each.
JAX, LAS, LAX, MCI, MKE, MSY, RSW, SAT and STL having about 4 daily departures each
PHX with 3 or 4
BOS downsized to 2 or 3x, with JetBlue picking up an equivalent of 3x on BOS-ATL, the two competing against DL.
SFO with 2, OAK with 1
AUS, SAN, ISP with 1 or 2 each
+ some extra padded for other domestic (maybe PIT, PHL, PBI, RIC, RDU and SDF), thus about 140.


I think you hit the cities pretty well in my opinion. Two I would question would be ISP (WN even dropped MDW-ISP, so I wouldn't count on ATL-ISP) and DCA having that many frequencies from ATL.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 120):
I doubt there will be 6 daily ATL-BNA flights in fact I doubt there will be any.
OAK and ISP won't have ATL service.


BNA and OAK are both large WN stations with a large frequent flier following. ATL-BNA is ripe for lower fares and provides some connectivity as well. OAK also provides nice connectivity to places like SEA and PDX if WN choose not to serve those non-stop out of ATL.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 100):
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 100):

Im very excited for WN in CLT and i cant wait to fly them.But i cant help bringing up a possibility of DEN from CLT. I understand its early but i say this because UA used to fly CLT-DEN 2 daily an dropped it. There has to be some room for one SWA flight to DEN.

DEN wouldn't shock me. It has service to a good number of WN markets except for a lot of the smaller cities. CLT definitely isn't a small city.


CLT-DEN seems very reasonable IMO. I'm surprised UA doesn't fly this. UA has also neglected RDU-DEN over the years yet WN has done well on it (went from 1x to 2x daily and I believe at least one of the flights are on an -800).

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-01-30 03:31:54 and read 10765 times.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 121):
I'm totally confused. Then why the expansion and new construction? Talk about confusing law. Always have been stumped by the Wright ammendmant. If you tested me on it right now I'd be sorry to say I'd be part of "F Troop."

The terminal needs to be modernized. Like you pointed out it is old, but there are still going to be restrictions on how large it can get. There will be growth in the number of nonstop destinations, just not growth in the total number of flights.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-01-30 05:38:10 and read 10687 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 122):
I doubt it will even be a net gain of 50 flights with the limited amount of gates as others have said.

I agree with that. That said, there is going to be an increased need for aircraft beyond what would be expected with the modest gain in flights, as the average stage length is sure to go up quite a bit.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-01-30 12:12:15 and read 10508 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 122):

I don't want to push it but I would love to see a CLT-LAS flight on WN. US is 651 RT!!!

WN is a savior for CLT passengers.

I could see this route be announced this year and starting next year (CLT-DEN)

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-02-01 09:57:08 and read 10168 times.

Is the FL schedule usually loaded on Saturday or Sunday before the WN schedule? I think this one will give quite a bit of insight in to the upcoming changes that are rumored to be pretty big.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: sdoyon
Posted 2013-02-01 11:25:09 and read 10169 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 126):
Is the FL schedule usually loaded on Saturday or Sunday before the WN schedule? I think this one will give quite a bit of insight in to the upcoming changes that are rumored to be pretty big.

I can never see the changes in the FL schedule prior the WN announcement. Do you just go through the booking engine for particular city pairs? I too think we're going to see a big change in FL flying as 717s start to leave the fleet--they start to leave in August, yes?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-02-01 11:44:35 and read 10123 times.

Look in the booking engine... at the city pairs that are FL only to see if they have reduced frequencies or no service at all.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-02-01 13:31:59 and read 10003 times.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 126):
Is the FL schedule usually loaded on Saturday or Sunday before the WN schedule? I think this one will give quite a bit of insight in to the upcoming changes that are rumored to be pretty big.

The norm has been that FL will roll out their new scheudle on Friday night, and the new WN schedule comes out on Monday morning. Two things to know about this:

(a) At least in one particular schedule roll out several month also, what AIrTran loaded on Friday night was adjusted on Monday anyway. All weekend it looked like AAA-BBB was continuing to operate on AirTran in the new period. Then Monday morning, the new Southwest schedule came out also flying AAA-BBB, and for a few hours it looked like both airlines were flying the market. Then a few hours later that Monday morning, AirTran's schedule was adjusted and AAA-BBB disappeared. I have not noticed this happening *every* time, but be aware that it has. And as such, take the AirTran load with a grain of salt untli we see Southwest too.

(b) This is the first rollout since (limited) code sharing was announced. So who knows how that will affect things. As an example if Southwest is starting ATL-OkC, maybe we'll see it for sale on AirTran in the Friday night load. Or maybe not until Monday. We don't even know if this weekend's load will have *any* additional code sharing as part of it. But just keep in mind that the "normal" pattern may not hold true anymore.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ScottB
Posted 2013-02-01 13:58:34 and read 9932 times.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 121):
I'm totally confused. Then why the expansion and new construction? Talk about confusing law. Always have been stumped by the Wright ammendmant.

Airport costs at DAL have historically been quite a bit lower than airport costs at DFW because the terminals were largely built and paid-for decades ago. The boosters of DFW (AMR, DFW Airport Board, City of Ft. Worth) wanted to level the playing field, so they required, as part of the Five Party Agreement ending the Wright Amendment, the development of new terminal facilities at DAL costing at least $150 million.

There's nothing all that confusing about the Wright Amendment -- it was written to protect DFW Airport and its primary tenant, AA. The airport and AMR headquarters were in Jim Wright's district.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 125):
WN is a savior for CLT passengers.

CLT passengers will have to use WN for it to be a savior for them. If they just keep on booking US when US matches the fare, they'll get what they deserve when WN pulls the service down the road.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 114):
BOS downsized to 2 or 3x, with JetBlue picking up an equivalent of 3x on BOS-ATL, the two competing against DL.

Why exactly would WN reduce BOS-ATL to accommodate entry by B6?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-02-01 14:05:25 and read 9930 times.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 130):

Why exactly would WN reduce BOS-ATL to accommodate entry by B6?

If B6 adds service on it which is likely, WN will reduce it's service over time.

I'd say given that WN doesn't do that elsewhere (flying 5x daily on that length unless it's big carrier on both ends and has no competition), it doesn't seem likely for WN sticking to 5x daily on the 900+ mile route, which overflies BWI, and it'd be DL vs. B6 vs. WN.

[Edited 2013-02-01 14:09:15]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-02-01 15:50:57 and read 9806 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 131):
If B6 adds service on it which is likely, WN will reduce it's service over time.

I'd say given that WN doesn't do that elsewhere (flying 5x daily on that length unless it's big carrier on both ends and has no competition), it doesn't seem likely for WN sticking to 5x daily on the 900+ mile route, which overflies BWI, and it'd be DL vs. B6 vs. WN.

Then why did WN start BOS service several years ago after B6 was already established there if they don't want to compete with them?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: AirDance
Posted 2013-02-01 19:13:09 and read 9703 times.

GRR has alerted media to a 'major air service announcement' next week on Monday, Feb. 4th. This could possibly be a Southwest Airlines announcement coinciding with their schedule extension.
http://www.mlive.com/business/west-m...ord_airport_alerts_media_to_m.html

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-01 19:23:23 and read 9686 times.

Quoting AirDance (Reply 133):

GRR has alerted media to a 'major air service announcement' next week on Monday, Feb. 4th. This could possibly be a Southwest Airlines announcement coinciding with their schedule extension.

Let the guessing begin! I think BWI, MCO & DEN.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-01 19:38:52 and read 9645 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 134):

Let me guess!

BWI,MDW,DEN,PHX

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-01 19:47:09 and read 9639 times.

Just a quick question. If WN was going to add a flight out west from CLT which would make the most sense

CLT-LAS/PHX/DEN

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-02-01 20:43:01 and read 9571 times.

Quoting AirDance (Reply 133):
GRR has alerted media to a 'major air service announcement' next week on Monday, Feb. 4th. This could possibly be a Southwest Airlines announcement coinciding with their schedule extension.

Good find. I'd say it's about a 98% chance it will be WN.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 134):
Let the guessing begin! I think BWI, MCO & DEN.
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 135):
Let me guess!

BWI,MDW,DEN,PHX

BWI and MCO will be a given in my opinion. I will be very surprised if TPA is also not kept. DEN, MDW, or RSW would be a nice bonus. I expect a buildout similar to FNT (3x BWI, 1x MCO, 1x TPA).

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 136):
Just a quick question. If WN was going to add a flight out west from CLT which would make the most sense

CLT-LAS/PHX/DEN

DEN in my opinion would be the most likely, but I would think LAS or PHX would also be viable as they have a very large Southwest following. CLT-PHX/LAS are pretty long which ties up aircraft which is why I would pick DEN over the others as a higher possibility. It also seems WN has been launching medium-haul routes over short-haul and domestic long haul.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-02-02 04:38:04 and read 9416 times.

A few preliminary things I'm noticing so far:

The AirTran site in English won't fullyl load -- the Spanish one does. Howerver I had a window open overnight on my browser and it works to search.

No Southwest code sharing loaded for the new period (at the moment)

MEM-BWI new on AirTran 1x/day

GRR no AirTran flights -- likely gone to Southwest


Preliminary info only, of course....

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-02 06:35:16 and read 9319 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 136):
CLT-LAS/PHX/DEN

I would think DEN.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 137):
DEN, MDW, or RSW would be a nice bonus.

I don't know what to think about MDW... It is a very short flight but a long drive.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2013-02-02 06:42:14 and read 9355 times.

The WN route map is showing MSY-SFO nonstop. I wonder if that's just listed for the handful of Super Bowl flights?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: sdoyon
Posted 2013-02-02 07:09:17 and read 9328 times.

Flights from 8/12/2013 on FL:

PNS has three flights to ATL (6a, 11a, and 6p)

RIC has four flights to ATL (7:45a, 12:22p, 2:38p, and 8:03p) and one flight to MCO (11a)

DCA: 6 to ATL, 4 to MKE, 1 to MCO, and 1 to RSW (no change)

LGA: 6 to ATL, 3 to CAK (no change)

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ERJ170
Posted 2013-02-02 08:05:37 and read 9271 times.

RDU (checking Aug 23, 2013) shows -1 FLL, +1 ATL, +1 BWI, +1 MDW are the changes I see... Just for the airtran side...

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-02-02 09:32:54 and read 9143 times.

Looking at Airtran.com.. I see for MEM..2 MDW, 4 ATL, 1 BWI and 1 MCO.
Wnfg 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-02-02 09:51:05 and read 9132 times.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 142):
RDU (checking Aug 23, 2013) shows -1 FLL, +1 ATL, +1 BWI, +1 MDW are the changes I see... Just for the airtran side...

Very interesting...RDU-MDW and RDU-BWI are both long-time Southwest markets. It appears that the 1x/day RDU-MDW-RDU and RDU-BWI-RDU runs from the new schedule start through August 30. I wonder if there are many additional temporary mixed markets like this?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-02-02 19:55:22 and read 8800 times.

Airtran.com seems to be having some I T issues.
Pulling up booking prices are showing economy fares higher than business class.
Also tried booking a flight showing service when You click the fare the flight gives you a message that service not available.
It's not looking good hope WN has there I T people working on this SNFU.
wnfg 

[Edited 2013-02-02 19:57:39]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-02-03 00:19:24 and read 8643 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 145):
Pulling up booking prices are showing economy fares higher than business class.
Also tried booking a flight showing service when You click the fare the flight gives you a message that service not available.
It's not looking good hope WN has there I T people working on this SNFU.

It's called the schedule is still being loaded and worked on, and people shouldn't be bothering with trying to book it yet. This happens every time when people go digging. When its ready to book the fares will be corrected and you'll actually be able to select them. Until then it is all just place holder stuff until its ready to go. Patience.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-02-03 12:16:27 and read 8388 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 146):

Personally I don't understand why Both Schedules don't release on the same day. There both being done by the same department right? I don't really think it's digging when you can look it up on Airtran.com in my opinion.
Like a true Airline nerd I will be up early looking at the new schedule.
I really don't think a lot of changes will come on this update.
I Think with the 717 withdrawal starting in August from the fleet you will see MEM,PNS,DCA,CAK and RIC slowly added into the WN network over the next year Route by Route.
wnfg 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-02-03 15:14:10 and read 8162 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 147):
Personally I don't understand why Both Schedules don't release on the same day. There both being done by the same department right?

I'm not sure if WN is in full control of the schedule or if there is still a set team handling FL specifically. Also two different reservations systems so upsets are going to go out at different times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 147):
I don't really think it's digging when you can look it up on Airtran.com in my opinion.

You are looking for something that isn't announced yet, that is digging.  

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: dadoftyler
Posted 2013-02-03 16:59:58 and read 8177 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 147):
Personally I don't understand why Both Schedules don't release on the same day. There both being done by the same department right?

Hi folks. Bill from WN Network Planning here. Yes, both WN and FL schedules are now done here in Dallas (or, as one my favorite senior pilots calls it, the "Puzzle Palace"). The reason things start trickling into to both airtran.com and southwest.com before the "official" announce time is that it takes time to load into both res systems, and we usually starting the Friday night before the opening. Schedule load schedules are different for each GDS which drives us Schedulers nuts!!! Plus there has to be other stuff done under the hood after the actual schedules load before we announce on Monday. And after all, you guys, c'mon, let's be honest--do you or do you not love sleuthing the schedule the weekend before the opening? (Trust me, I used to do the same exact thing!!!)

Have a good night, folks. GO RAVENS!!!

Bill

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-02-03 18:29:21 and read 7983 times.

Quoting dadoftyler (Reply 149):

Thanks for that INFO Bill..
And Yes seeing Stuff in a schudule before the offical date is like shaking presants on xmas eve. 
SFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSFSF!
  

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: mke717spotter
Posted 2013-02-03 20:55:01 and read 7846 times.

Looks like WN is going to be debuting a new marketing/advertising campaign around MKE starting tomorrow, might we see some new service added as well?

http://www.jsonline.com/business/sou...ukee-market-6i8io2h-189596391.html

"We enter the market to win," says Bob Jordan, the No. 2 executive at the Dallas-based carrier.

Which explains why Southwest - which, along with its AirTran subsidiary, owns 52% of the market at Mitchell International - is launching a major advertising and marketing effort in Milwaukee on Monday as it seeks to raise its profile here, especially among business travelers.

"Milwaukee is just really important to Southwest Airlines," said Jordan, Southwest's executive vice president and chief commercial officer. "What we're launching here in the next week is a real illustration of that commitment."

The effort, which Southwest has dubbed "Wheels Up Milwaukee," will include advertising that features its Milwaukee employees, as well as bonus frequent flier offers, a fare sale and community projects, said Southwest spokesman Brad Hawkins. The campaign will include television, radio, print and web-based spots."

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: dbo861
Posted 2013-02-03 22:24:25 and read 7771 times.

Kind of an unrelated question, but at what rate are they converting FL 737s to Southwest? How many have been converted so far?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: alggag
Posted 2013-02-04 04:08:52 and read 7692 times.

Southwest route map page shows GRR with service to DEN, BWI, STL, and MCO. MEM, RIC, and PNS are still displaying as all FL stations.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: sdoyon
Posted 2013-02-04 04:35:21 and read 7589 times.

It looks like FNT is now connected to LAS as well (could be seasonal)

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ultrapig
Posted 2013-02-04 06:14:19 and read 7403 times.

I don't understand the STL-GRR route except if its that I don't understand how WN operates these days.

During the summer I can see lots of St. Louisans flying to Michigan for the lake vacation season.

In the winter I see no such travel.

On the other hand I can see people from that area flying to St. Louis, but only to connect. Does WN now set up routes in order to get connecting passengers?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-04 06:20:02 and read 7384 times.

Quoting ultrapig (Reply 155):
I don't understand the STL-GRR route except if its that I don't understand how WN operates these days.

STL-GRR is actually a larger local market than CHI-GRR despite no nonstop service and pretty high fares (~50 cents/mile average).

If WN could grow the market from ~20 PDEW (where it is now) to 60 or 70 PDEW plus thrus and connects, that's probably enough for a daily flight or two.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-04 06:23:00 and read 7355 times.

Quoting ultrapig (Reply 155):

STL gets you connections to the Midwest and southcentral that neither BWI nor DEN can deliver. There may also be some local market, unlike MDW which so many where insisting would happen.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-04 06:34:34 and read 7311 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 112):
Quoting enilria (Reply 109):
From what I know and some conjecture, a big pull down of ATL will fund the DAL 2014 build-up. So, they may not pull in the short-term, but it is coming.

I don't see that much room for a huge buildup at DAL. There will be flights added, but I don't think we are talking about a net gain of 100 flights or anything close to that.
Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 113):
Completely agree. I think the number of nonstop destinations explodes, but at the expense of downsizing existing routes.

Even if you don't think they will add many flights at DAL (I disagree), it takes a lot more planes to fly DAL-BOS than DAL-MAF. This is going to require at least 30 aircraft to convert the operation into a transcontinental hub. It might be much more than that if they fly DAL-LAX/MDW/etc 6x+ each.

[Edited 2013-02-04 06:35:15]

[Edited 2013-02-04 06:35:33]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-04 06:53:22 and read 7224 times.

It looks like ATL picks up FLL and RSW in the schedule load.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-04 07:10:22 and read 7098 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 159):
It looks like ATL picks up FLL and RSW in the schedule load.

My mistake. Those are just the codeshare flights.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-02-04 07:15:56 and read 7088 times.

It's GRR added and then seasonal cuts.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-04 07:15:56 and read 7074 times.

Anything new for CLT?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: kkephart13
Posted 2013-02-04 07:20:03 and read 7039 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 162):

Anything new for CLT?

No.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-02-04 08:09:26 and read 6886 times.

While I'm happy that another FL is city added to the WN network.
I'm taken back by the all the cuts on the ever shifting and" I fee"l the unreliable WN network.
From what I see so far the cuts out number the gains.
Maybe someone can show me the light in this latest mess???
wnfg

  

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-02-04 08:22:19 and read 6765 times.

I'm not surprised of the loss of PHL-Florida, esp. when it transitioned from WN to FL and now. The routes weren't business serving or important in the network anyways. These were year round routes, but are now being just labeled as seasonal.

WN might want pax transferring at ATL to help PHL-ATL.

Maybe it'll just be US, and F9 at TTN, NK at ACY/PHL and hopefully B6 picking up some void, although WN might still keep just one route such as PHL-MCO.

[Edited 2013-02-04 08:23:52]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-04 08:28:08 and read 6681 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 168):
I'm not surprised of the loss of PHL-Florida, esp. when it transitioned from WN to FL and now. The routes weren't business serving or important in the network anyways. These were year round routes, but are now being just labeled as seasonal.

WN might want pax transferring at ATL to help PHL-ATL.

Maybe it'll just be US, and F9 at TTN, NK at ACY/PHL and hopefully B6 picking up some void, although WN might still keep just one route such as PHL-MCO.

I live closer to EWR but have been flying PHL-Florida on US because they're cheap and I get Mileage plus miles. Add in NK at ACY, which is exceedingly popular with the Central/South Jersey crowd who would otherwise choose EWR and PHL, and now F9 at TTN and it's obvious WN was on the way out. They're "might" be room for B6 to MCO.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-02-04 09:12:30 and read 6436 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 166):
Maybe someone can show me the light in this latest mess???

The same seasonal reductions that are done EVERY year for September-November.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: OzarkD9S
Posted 2013-02-04 09:37:51 and read 6311 times.

Looks like more cuts than additions.

Glad to see WN being pro-active in cutting marginal flying.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: apodino
Posted 2013-02-04 09:41:52 and read 6278 times.

I read in another thread that WN will be starting MEM service to MDW, BWI, and MCO on FL metal in August. FL had existing ATL service, but I suspect that WN sees an opening in MEM with the DL pull down and is going to make a play for it.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: QANTAS747-438
Posted 2013-02-04 10:17:11 and read 6177 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 162):
Anything new for CLT?

Yes, 6 flts per day to BWI 2x, MDW 2x, MCO, and HOU.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: sdoyon
Posted 2013-02-04 10:20:45 and read 6126 times.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 180):
Yes, 6 flts per day to BWI 2x, MDW 2x, MCO, and HOU.

I think he meant in addition to that. That was announced in the last schedule extension.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-02-04 10:57:22 and read 6029 times.

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 177):
Will Southwest even keep Jackson long-term? I can't imagine HOU, MDW and MCO (!) are all that lucrative...

JAN-HOU is short-haul and it might be the route that can keep the station viable, like CRP-HOU.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-04 11:20:15 and read 5934 times.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 180):

Duh way to state the obvious.

I asked because FNT got a new route an I had to bring it up

[Edited 2013-02-04 11:21:02]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-02-04 11:33:23 and read 5897 times.

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 177):
Will Southwest even keep Jackson long-term? I can't imagine HOU, MDW and MCO (!) are all that lucrative...

I can't see WN leaving JAN completely at this point, but should be sustainable as a small station with HOU and MDW providing the bulk of service. I also wonder how much MEM is going to impact it.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 182):
and then OKC received non-stop service to MDW, which is probably the reason MCI got cut. The few times I did OKC-MCI, quite a few people (most) were connecting/continuing on to MDW or elsewhere.

Yeah, MDW did go to 2x daily this month...so that helps. Would like to see some additional MDW lift or even BNA at some point.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 184):
Duh way to state the obvious.

I asked because FNT got a new route an I had to bring it up

Not every station is going to get new service with every announcement. CLT got a pretty good amount initially, so you'll probably stick with that for awhile.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-02-04 12:10:05 and read 5791 times.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 183):
JAN-HOU is short-haul and it might be the route that can keep the station viable, like CRP-HOU.

What is concerning to me is JAN-MDW. It's one of the lowest load-factors I've seen on WN recently:

JAN-HOU 68%
JAN-MCO 67%
JAN-MDW 50%

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 185):
Yeah, MDW did go to 2x daily this month...so that helps. Would like to see some additional MDW lift or even BNA at some point.

Interesting, nice to see MDW-OKC is doing so well.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-04 12:14:01 and read 5770 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 185):

I understand I was just curious

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: DariusBieber
Posted 2013-02-04 12:25:59 and read 5847 times.

I'm guessing WN renewed their lease at DSM? I overheard WN attendants on a DSM-MDW flight that WN originally had only leased their operations at DSM until Summer of 2013, because I think I remember them using Skywest employees to check people in at DSM.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: alggag
Posted 2013-02-04 12:34:06 and read 5800 times.

re: JAN

Any thoughts on seeing JAN-ATL down the road when ATL is more up to speed? Nothing massive, just like 2x. Or would that just be out of the frying pan and into the Delta fire?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: jporterfi
Posted 2013-02-04 12:48:08 and read 5763 times.

I'm surprised by the lack of changes (e.g. shifting FL routes to WN routes) in ATL. Does anyone think WN will add n/s service to new cities out of ATL (and not just shift existing FL cities to WN)?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SouthernDC9
Posted 2013-02-04 12:53:39 and read 5757 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 175):
What is concerning to me is JAN-MDW. It's one of the lowest load-factors I've seen on WN recently:

JAN-HOU 68%
JAN-MCO 67%
JAN-MDW 50%

Wow, that can't be good... UA just introduced JAN-ORD, not sure if that will make situation worse or have any impact

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 174):
I also wonder how much MEM is going to impact it.

It being JAN service... purely anecdotal, but that I know of JAN isn't a big draw for MEM travelers in general, people will go to LIT and BNA to get lower fares but that I know of JAN has never seemed to serve that purpose. But I bet there are Oxford/N. Miss people who go to JAN for Southwest but would just as soon go to MEM if the service is available.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-04 13:16:17 and read 5667 times.

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 180):
It being JAN service... purely anecdotal, but that I know of JAN isn't a big draw for MEM travelers in general, people will go to LIT and BNA to get lower fares but that I know of JAN has never seemed to serve that purpose.

I don't think it would. It's more or less the same distance to BNA as to JAN, and BNA has so much more service. LIT is the closest legacy WN airport to Memphis, and even it has more service than JAN.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: dbo861
Posted 2013-02-04 14:29:50 and read 5482 times.

Quoting DariusBieber (Reply 177):

I'm guessing WN renewed their lease at DSM? I overheard WN attendants on a DSM-MDW flight that WN originally had only leased their operations at DSM until Summer of 2013, because I think I remember them using Skywest employees to check people in at DSM.

I'm guessing this hasn't been decided/finalized yet. If they already decided not to renew the lease, they wouldn't be offering DSM-MDW on these new schedule releases, and if they renewed the lease you'd think they'd add more flights..as WN has never been an airline that operated a station with only a few flights.

At this point if they decide not to renew the lease, they'll just have to zero out the flights past June 30. If they renew it, hopefully we'll see some expansion soon. Would they ever add flights for schedules that have already been released, if for example, they decide to keep DSM and want to add flights/destinations for the summer? Or would we have to wait until Sep 28th at the earliest?

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: KarlB737
Posted 2013-02-04 14:37:10 and read 5507 times.

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 154):
It looks like FNT is now connected to LAS as well

Courtesy: MLive

Southwest Announces Las Vegas Flight From Bishop International Airport

http://www.mlive.com/business/mid-mi...as_vegas.html#incart_river_default

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: DariusBieber
Posted 2013-02-04 14:46:00 and read 5437 times.

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 182):
I'm guessing this hasn't been decided/finalized yet. If they already decided not to renew the lease, they wouldn't be offering DSM-MDW on these new schedule releases, and if they renewed the lease you'd think they'd add more flights..as WN has never been an airline that operated a station with only a few flights.

At this point if they decide not to renew the lease, they'll just have to zero out the flights past June 30. If they renew it, hopefully we'll see some expansion soon. Would they ever add flights for schedules that have already been released, if for example, they decide to keep DSM and want to add flights/destinations for the summer? Or would we have to wait until Sep 28th at the earliest?

I was checking their flights past June 30th, and they are available for booking.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-04 15:29:49 and read 5349 times.

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 180):

Traditionally service from AL and MS has done poorly to ORD. There is little traffic from those two states to the Midwest. Most traffic goes west thru DFW or east thru ATL.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: planespotting
Posted 2013-02-04 18:55:33 and read 5089 times.

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 182):
and if they renewed the lease you'd think they'd add more flights..as WN has never been an airline that operated a station with only a few flights.

I think we will just need to be patient with WN's presence in DSM. I believe they are happy with its current performance and are still trying to figure out what to do with what will no doubt be the smallest station in their system for some time.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: DariusBieber
Posted 2013-02-04 20:35:01 and read 4941 times.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 186):

I think we will just need to be patient with WN's presence in DSM. I believe they are happy with its current performance and are still trying to figure out what to do with what will no doubt be the smallest station in their system for some time.

On every flight I've taken from DSM to MDW and vice versa it has been completely full. Albeit, I went during the high traffic days (Thanksgiving, Christmas) but I've flown the route 8 times now. Doesn't sound too bad at all, and there are a bunch of different connections that people are taking. I'm certainly hopeful that they can manage a second destination from DSM, perhaps STL or DEN, making it more suitable for connections in the West and South.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: sdoyon
Posted 2013-02-05 12:58:53 and read 4657 times.

Looks like DEN-BUR comes back at 2x. Slightly confused, wasn't this permanently ended with the previous schedule extension?

From 9/23/13:

BUR - DEN: 11:05a, flight 3251
BUR - DEN: 4:35p, flight 3912

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SouthernDC9
Posted 2013-02-05 13:06:23 and read 4635 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 185):
Traditionally service from AL and MS has done poorly to ORD. There is little traffic from those two states to the Midwest. Most traffic goes west thru DFW or east thru ATL.

I know, that's so weird... where could one find the passengers-per-day figures for, say, JAN-ORD? (My JAN-CLT flight was late Sunday and I so very much wanted them to switch me to JAN-ORD-DCA so I could get popcorn but alas, they just put me on a later CLT-DCA flight... I did get Bojangles so there's that...)

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: ATLgaUSA
Posted 2013-02-05 13:16:40 and read 4624 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 185):
Traditionally service from AL and MS has done poorly to ORD. There is little traffic from those two states to the Midwest. Most traffic goes west thru DFW or east thru ATL.

I'm not sure that is true. Chicago is one of Birmingham's largest local markets with 336 passengers per way each day. United runs three regional jets a day between BHM and ORD and Southwest runs 2 737s a day between BHM and MDW.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-05 13:29:44 and read 4607 times.

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 189):
where could one find the passengers-per-day figures for, say, JAN-ORD

Click in here

http://www.dot.gov/policy/aviation-p...stic-airline-fares-consumer-report

and use Table 6 for all domestic city-pairs for metro areas, which will show up on the table if there is at least 10 or more pax per day on a route. City-pairs are listed once since it's total traffic, so if you were to find Chicago-Jackson, that's it. There won't be a Jackson-Chicago listed. Or maybe Jackson-Chicago will be listed, but not Chicago-Jackson. I think that you understand what I'm getting at here. Also, market share and fares are listed in this table.

Next, since metro areas can have more than one airport, Table 1a gives the info for individual airports within metro areas, e.g. the New York City area includes LGA, EWR, JFK, ISP, HPN and SWF, while Chicago includes ORD and MDW. There are a number of metro areas here with more than one airport. So with JAN-ORD, this is probably the table to best give you the info you want here. And the Q3 12 shows that the pax traffic between JAN-ORD is about 62 pax per day.

May this all help.....



 

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-05 13:40:47 and read 4583 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 175):
What is concerning to me is JAN-MDW. It's one of the lowest load-factors I've seen on WN recently:

(Writing this on a 2/3 full MCO-JAN flight -- WN wifi is much faster when the flight isn't full)

One other concern in JAN has got to be the yields. On today's flight, I was the only Business Select passenger. That's not unusual in my experience.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-05 17:51:41 and read 4402 times.

Quoting ATLgaUSA (Reply 190):

Compare that to cities with the MSA the size of BHM east or west of ORD like OMA.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: wnflyguy
Posted 2013-02-06 00:21:42 and read 4210 times.

BUR-DEN always had strong loads from my understanding. But every schedule now they optimize the optimized and if the computer says cut the market they cut it..SNA-MDW from my understanding always has had strong loads but now it's being cut. I personal think WN is so wrapped up in the code share debacle they are or have lost there way. Again I'm happy another FL city is converting to WN. I use to understand there though process now with every new schedule update i'm scratching my head. And in 5 years at this rate I can see if you want go from OAK to LAX you will need to transfer in DEN..
   wn?fg

[Edited 2013-02-06 00:25:38]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-06 08:24:37 and read 4051 times.

I've got a question about something I've seen in the .pdf flight Schedules for quite some time now; I wonder how widespread this is and what the reason is.

WN shows bunches of direct/one-stop flights as well as connections in a couple of markets out of SAN (LAS and SFO) which have anywhere from 9 to 13 nonstops. Who, for example, is going to want to fly from SAN to SFO with a change of plane in PHX when there are 9 nonstop choices offered by WN? And there have been instances of direct LAS-SAN flights making a stop in TUS.

I know that WN runs very interesting and circuitous routings on a lot of flights, continuing flight numbers as a/c completely change direction. We all know about flights that originate in GEG, fly down the w/c, then continue across the country to Florida, and end up in New England (such as a "through" flight number that might operate GEG-OAK-LAS-SAN-HOU-TPA-BDL.) And that's fine and I'm all for providing direct service between 2 airports with a stop or 2 where no connection is required.

But in markets where there are so many nonstops, why bother with all these unnecessary connections and complex routings? (Of course I do realize many of us A.netters would take these weird routings rather than nonstops but I don't think that's really WN's motivation.)

But strangest of all is the listing of flights from SAN to BUR! HUH? Mostly connections but actual thru flights sometimes appear in this market of about 120 miles as the crow flies. Most connections are via LAS and take, oh, about 3 to 4 hours. (I honestly don't know if they sell tickets and have published fares in the market!) I wonder when WN will expand this notion and start selling SAN-LAX tickets (via PHX and OAK)?

Has this all got something to do with WN's optimization program or is this a result of intentional human design -- another interesting part of the NEW Southwest Airlines? Just curious...

bb

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-02-06 10:06:35 and read 3942 times.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 186):
I think we will just need to be patient with WN's presence in DSM. I believe they are happy with its current performance and are still trying to figure out what to do with what will no doubt be the smallest station in their system for some time.
DSM will be a slow growth if any. It's a small market that is sensitive to any type of capacity additions.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 195):
WN shows bunches of direct/one-stop flights as well as connections in a couple of markets out of SAN (LAS and SFO) which have anywhere from 9 to 13 nonstops. Who, for example, is going to want to fly from SAN to SFO with a change of plane in PHX when there are 9 nonstop choices offered by WN? And there have been instances of direct LAS-SAN flights making a stop in TUS.



It doesn't always work out WN can offer one-stops to the cities that make the most sense. It is possible for example there aren't any other aircraft available for PHX-SFO at the time they want except for the SAN-PHX flight right before, so SAN-PHX-SFO ends up being offered. With WN's tight scheduling there isn't much of a choice in some cases. Serving SAN-PHX and PHX-SFO is a higher priority than offering more efficient one-stop flights.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 194):
BUR-DEN always had strong loads from my understanding. But every schedule now they optimize the optimized and if the computer says cut the market they cut it..SNA-MDW from my understanding always has had strong loads but now it's being cut.
Quoting sdoyon (Reply 188):
Looks like DEN-BUR comes back at 2x. Slightly confused, wasn't this permanently ended with the previous schedule extension?



I'm guessing yields were the issue, plus DEN and MDW can easily be reached by flying SNA-PHX/LAS-xxx or BUR-LAS/PHX-xxx. Nice to see DEN-BUR returning though, it was in fact supposed to a permanent cut effective April 13.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: usflyguy
Posted 2013-02-06 10:39:17 and read 3905 times.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 194):
I personal think WN is so wrapped up in the code share debacle they are or have lost there way.

It's different teams of people, so no.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-06 14:19:24 and read 3800 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 196):
It doesn't always work out WN can offer one-stops to the cities that make the most sense. It is possible for example there aren't any other aircraft available for PHX-SFO at the time they want except for the SAN-PHX flight right before, so SAN-PHX-SFO ends up being offered. With WN's tight scheduling there isn't much of a choice in some cases. Serving SAN-PHX and PHX-SFO is a higher priority than offering more efficient one-stop flights.

Thanks for your input.

I guess what I'm wondering is WHY does WN bother listing such out of the way connections on their schedules (.pdf ones anyway), taking up room and making it more difficult for potential customers to select flights by having to pour over all the junk when looking for a flight between 2 cities? A direct flight between SAN-SFO that makes a stop is different, even though it may still be time-consuming and a silly routing. But to offer a connection in PHX between SAN and SFO? Why? And to even list SAN-BUR, with connections over LAS... What's that about?

One other interesting facet of this. SAN-SJC, SAN-OAK and SAN-SMF never show connecting flights -- only the many nonstops offered. SAN-SFO, however, on the .pdf schedule currently in effect for example, has 31 lines of flight offerings, 14 of which are nonstops! (It's 9/day but the weekend variances are included to make it 14 nonstops.) That means there are 17 connections listed!

This just seems very odd to me. There are probably reasons for all of this but I'll be darned if I can think of any...

bb

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-02-06 15:09:45 and read 3752 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 198):
This just seems very odd to me. There are probably reasons for all of this but I'll be darned if I can think of any...

I have three ideas....

(a) In markets with multiple nonstops, they may publish connections because sometimes availability will lead people to book a connection. The nonstop may be sold out, or sold out of cheap fares, and people end up flying something like SAN-LAS-SFO.

(b) I've seen it where a desirable flight does not operate every day of the week, and an alternate, unattractive connecting flight is also published because it operates on a day the nonstop does not. Here's a completely made up example to illustrate

DEN-SAN
8:00am....1:30pm......via Kansas City....daily
9:00am....10:30am ....nonstop..............daily except Saturday

The DEN-MCI-SAN routing is four hours longer and very unattractive, but in this example it's the only way to get from DEN to SAN on Saturdays. So it is published.

(c) I think they publish in their printed schedules all or most 1-stop and 2-stop thru routings. For example, they publish a 2-stop MSP-DEN flight (#390) which operates Minneapolis-Milwaukee-New York-Denver, leaving at 7:20am and arriving at 3:20pm. You can take that same 7:20am departure and connect in Milwaukee to arrive Denver at 10:30am. Or take a nonstop MSP-DEN at 12:30pm that gets in a 1:45pm.


So, I think there's a combination of these things gonig on, depending on what you see and where. What's in the published schedule isn't necessarily for sale on the website. And a lot of this is probably just how they program things. If the printed schedule is created with logic that says to include all 1- and 2-stop flights, it might well show LAX-SNA via Baltimore and Denver if it is flown as a single flight number.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-06 15:26:40 and read 3735 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 198):
(.pdf ones anyway)

Most people I know don't look at a .pdf, they just look up flights in the booking sections.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 194):
I use to understand there though process now with every new schedule update i'm scratching my head.

And when you or someone doesn't understand it, it means the company is changing in a bad direction? If they are cutting something, there is a reason. And with those poor routes gone, the company will do better. I think you need some motivation...

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-06 20:15:06 and read 3566 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 199):
I have three ideas....

And thanks for those ideas too knope'. Some of what you say helps possibly explain some of my questions. The rest will continue to keep me wondering and that's not the worst situation in life...

bb

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: planespotting
Posted 2013-02-07 02:08:52 and read 3496 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 196):
DSM will be a slow growth if any. It's a small market that is sensitive to any type of capacity additions.

I do think DSM will eventually receive extra daily frequency, most likely to PHX and/or STL. It just might take another 6-36 months before they feel comfortable enough with the market to try (I would imagine they want a fairly large sample size of Des Moines traffic and passenger habits to analyze before they act).

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-07 09:16:54 and read 3400 times.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 202):
I do think DSM will eventually receive extra daily frequency, most likely to PHX and/or STL.

STL gives DSM nothing they dont get from MDW. Two hubs east of DSM makes no sense. I think DSM will get DEN, 2 daily flights. Maybe an MCO in the winter. DSM will be hard pressed to geet even the service GRR has received even though both airports are close in enplanmements.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: alggag
Posted 2013-02-07 10:19:00 and read 3342 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 203):

STL gives DSM nothing they dont get from MDW. Two hubs east of DSM makes no sense. I think DSM will get DEN, 2 daily flights. Maybe an MCO in the winter. DSM will be hard pressed to geet even the service GRR has received even though both airports are close in enplanmements.

Completely agree, 2x MDW and 2x DEN will probably be about it for daily services.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2013-02-07 10:31:40 and read 3324 times.

One positive is that the MKE-MSY nonstop remains. This is looking more and more like WN will be keeping it year round. If it can last through the September doldrums, I'm sure it'll be back for the Fall and beyond.

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: dbo861
Posted 2013-02-08 00:54:36 and read 3142 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 203):
STL gives DSM nothing they dont get from MDW. Two hubs east of DSM makes no sense. I think DSM will get DEN, 2 daily flights. Maybe an MCO in the winter. DSM will be hard pressed to geet even the service GRR has received even though both airports are close in enplanmements.

I think STL would be an option for Southwest if they decide 2 MDW flights aren't enough. STL does have some things that MDW isn't able to provide. It would allow connecting opportunities to DAL and DCA, currently neither are offered from MDW. Also, it could serve the passengers wanting to fly from DSM-STL non-stop which in the status quo it's quicker to drive than to make an out of the way connection in Chicago. Given the cheap non-stop airfares to MDW (and assuming we'd see similar airfares to STL), this would generate its own O&D traffic. DSM has a long history of non-stop service to STL, which only ended because AA closed its hub.

[Edited 2013-02-08 00:58:14]

Topic: RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions
Username: planespotting
Posted 2013-02-08 01:35:03 and read 3125 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 203):
STL gives DSM nothing they dont get from MDW. Two hubs east of DSM makes no sense. I think DSM will get DEN, 2 daily flights. Maybe an MCO in the winter. DSM will be hard pressed to geet even the service GRR has received even though both airports are close in enplanmements.

Except STL is a viable alternative/routing through to the SE/East Coast if MDW is too busy for WN to add additional routes, which it is getting close to becoming.

I don't see WN adding DEN at the moment, mainly because that would be three airlines on DSM-DEN, and DEN is a cockfight at it is with no real profit for any airline right now. If F9 goes away that could change, but I think PHX (or LAS) would be more viable for WN operations, albeit aways down the road.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/