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Topic: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: blueflyer
Posted 2013-02-06 15:39:34 and read 32418 times.

WFAA (ABC Dallas) reports a merger is to be announced next week, possibly Monday, with headquarters in Ft Worth but leadership from US Airways.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/business/Am...-expected-next-week-190101971.html

[Edited 2013-02-06 15:49:45]

Topic: RE: AA-US Merger To Be Announced Next Week
Username: AllegiantFlyer
Posted 2013-02-06 15:44:41 and read 32359 times.

After looking at this article and watching the video it seemed quite biased in my opinion like a merger is what they want instead of whats really going to happen

Topic: RE: AA-US Merger To Be Announced Next Week
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-02-06 15:45:53 and read 32340 times.

Yea suggest the title is changed to Rumor as this is not fact ...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: blueflyer
Posted 2013-02-06 15:50:41 and read 32173 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 3):

There. Happy I hope.

Locally, WFAA is very well informed when it comes to AA, so I'd take it to the bank...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-06 15:53:34 and read 32136 times.

It's WFAA, in addition to Dallas Morning News, in addition to the Star-Telegram, in addition to WSJ. They're all probably talking to the same "source" who is leaking the same information. Nonetheless, it appears a deal is close.

Glad this soap opera is likely to be coming to an end, one way or another, soon ...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-02-06 15:57:26 and read 32029 times.

It true this is a win for Texas politicians.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: QANTASvJet
Posted 2013-02-06 16:05:18 and read 31861 times.

Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: FL787
Posted 2013-02-06 16:10:45 and read 31771 times.

This article didn't mention it, but in the WSJ article it says that the AA/US merger will create the world's largest airline. By what measure are they basing this off of? Assuming RPM/Ks or ASM/Ks are used which is commonplace, UA is still bigger.

For full year 2012

RPMs
UA: 205,484,567
AA/US: 136,560,266+64,880,446= 201,440,712
DL: 192,955,777

ASMs
UA: 248,860,009
AA/US: 166,129,600+77,510,211= 243,639,811
DL: 230,399,620


Obviously being the largest isn't worth anything and there are other ways of measuring it, but should WSJ really be claiming that AA/US will be the largest airline? Seems like they need some fact-checkers to me.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-06 16:11:25 and read 31754 times.

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 7):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

From the OP's article:

Quote:
American last month debuted a new logo and paint scheme for its aircraft. At the time, Horton said he did not expect to have to change the the livery again.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-06 16:13:25 and read 31720 times.

I hope they hurry up and announce it already so we can kick off the next phase of speculating new aircraft orders, hub changes, livery etc... That discussion should last a while and will be a nice change from "787 battery problem".

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-06 16:13:27 and read 31717 times.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
By what measure are they basing this off of?

AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-02-06 16:15:10 and read 31663 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Or fleet size.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-06 16:22:46 and read 31502 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 10):
That discussion should last a while and will be a nice change from "787 battery problem".

90% of posts on this site relate to one of these two topics.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-06 16:27:45 and read 31444 times.

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 7):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail.

If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-06 16:29:19 and read 31412 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 13):
90% of posts on this site relate to one of these two topics.

I want to discuss moving US A330s onto AA routes from MIA and JFK etc.., but I guess that should wait for the formal announcemt.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-06 16:31:14 and read 31347 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Exactly. It's been confirmed for a looooooong time that AA will be the surviving name. Why is this constantly debated?   

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: etops1
Posted 2013-02-06 16:37:48 and read 31222 times.

I am Curious to see what kind of agreement US has made with Star Alliance for an exit . Do they just automatically switch to Oneworld once an announcement is reached or do they need time to do that ?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: aacun
Posted 2013-02-06 16:38:49 and read 31191 times.

It will be tuesday when they announce it I was told

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: plateman
Posted 2013-02-06 16:40:18 and read 31169 times.

This board (Airliners) has become the AA board lately and its annoying as heck .. one thread, keep it simple. Every person and media outlet seems to have an exclusive story with sources. Most members want to guess what their routes will look like, what hub they will have ... mods keep it on one post please!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: FL787
Posted 2013-02-06 16:42:51 and read 31132 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.
Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 12):
Or fleet size.

Thanks, I'm aware of these measurements. My point is that most were calling UA/CO the world's largest airline back in 2010 even though DL carried more passengers and had a larger fleet so I think it's safe to assume most publications/people use ASMs/RPMs, in which case UA would still be larger. If WSJ was actually using enplaned passengers then there's no issue, I'm just not sure they were.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-06 16:45:43 and read 31092 times.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 17):
I am Curious to see what kind of agreement US has made with Star Alliance for an exit . Do they just automatically switch to Oneworld once an announcement is reached or do they need time to do that ?

How quickly did CO exit SkyTeam a few years back?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2013-02-06 16:57:22 and read 30868 times.

I would imagine they will also be announcing US Airways jumping from Star to One World also? How soon can they join?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-02-06 17:02:03 and read 30780 times.

All I have to say is that I sincerely hope CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed. Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

[Edited 2013-02-06 17:04:06]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2013-02-06 17:05:28 and read 30766 times.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed. Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

CLT and PHL will retain major roles from everything that is speculated and has been said. PHX is the one hub that has been debatable. But with AA in CLT and PHL it will provide good competition to DL and UA. AA will finally be a major force along the east coast when you toss DCA in there as well.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: etops1
Posted 2013-02-06 17:06:07 and read 31346 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 21):

If I remember correctly , I think it was 1year ? I could be wrong .

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-06 17:06:49 and read 32349 times.

As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed.

They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

Do you mean will they need to give up slots? Highly unlikely. US only adds a handful of slots to the JFK portfolio; while a combined US-AA at LGA is still smaller - but nonetheless very competitive - than the DOT-sanctioned DL slot portfolio.

DCA slots, for sure, they will have to give some up.

[Edited 2013-02-06 17:07:23]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-06 17:07:01 and read 32694 times.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 22):
I would imagine they will also be announcing US Airways jumping from Star to One World also? How soon can they join?

If this happens, US wouldn't join; US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: kcrwflyer
Posted 2013-02-06 17:36:58 and read 32741 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Explain please. In as much detail as you care to go into.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-06 17:38:05 and read 32668 times.

I'm guessing US/VS codeshare would go away pretty quickly?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):

As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

I'm sure DL is praying for US to do that. In Boston, this will determine how many Dividend Miles and a fair amount of Mileage Plus members jump aboard the new AA.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-02-06 17:41:45 and read 32562 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):

The way I (and many on here) have seemed to think aobut it, is that they would try to consolidate the PHL and NYC ops to the greatest extent possible, but that would require more slots at JFK and possibly LGA.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: BN747
Posted 2013-02-06 17:45:30 and read 32674 times.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

You're being generous...

CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

With DFW being the massive base it is.. I see PHX taking a huge hit.

And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK... growth is certainly not in the cards.

..and any US honchos who happen to troll A.net, please vote to lose that (new) ugly AA tail. JAL bit the bullet and went back on a mistake and brought back the Crane, pls bring back the eagle and the AA or whip up anything but that Bank of America ripoff. But given the history of US Airways' logos...it's a no win situation.

I've seen all carrier mergers since 1978 and haven't liked a single one.. this is no exception.


BN747

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Beardown91737
Posted 2013-02-06 17:45:55 and read 32588 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 27):
US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

Most likely scenario is that AA is being acquired by LCC. LCC will combine US and AA under the name American Airlines. They would use the current AA membership in OW.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

LCC would naturally be very cautious in leaving what made money at US and running blindly into what didn't make money for AMR. Moving

AA may have the lead in passengers at LAX, but they aren't that big, maybe 160 flights counting regional. I don't see LCC management adding a lot to LAX when they could have tried a LAX focus city.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 15):
I want to discuss moving US A330s onto AA routes from MIA and JFK etc.., but I guess that should wait for the formal announcemt.

Why wait? We have been talking about hubs for 9-10 months, why not where the planes will go when LCC takes over operation of AA?

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 16):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Exactly. It's been confirmed for a looooooong time that AA will be the surviving name. Why is this constantly debated?   

Correct that LCC would use the name American, not "keep" it since they don't own that name now. Beyond that, and the Ft Worth HQ there is no assurance that any current AA anything would be immune, even the recent rebranding of AA. Maybe that will be the first thing cut.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-06 17:49:04 and read 32480 times.

How quick until BA jumps into CLT.

Or is that pushing it  

Well CLT spotters sadly we will probably see the A346 go hopefully we can keep LH

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-06 17:51:45 and read 32381 times.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

Where is all that traffic going to go? In to the ether? CLT will doubtless get smaller, but STL is down something like 90 percent from its peak.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-06 17:54:27 and read 32312 times.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK

Uh, I'd hardly call JFK and ORD AA fortresses. DFW and MIA yes but certainly not the first two

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-06 17:56:53 and read 32466 times.

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 29):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.


Explain please. In as much detail as you care to go into.

Traffic flows. It's simple.

US Airways has to rely on Charlotte today to do an insane amount of things, such as: ORDMIA; MIAFCO; SJUBOS; ORFSAN; RICLAX; SLCBHM. Those things can be handled in any combination by ORD, DFW or MIA, and often better. You don't need that capacity overlap, and CLT will simply see it's route network remain largely intact, but less need for capacity as traffic flows spread out through other hubs.

You don't need, say, 8 daily CLTILM flights anymore, when you can have 4 daily CLTILM, 1 daily to DFW, 2 daily to ORD, and 1 daily to MIA and better serve the market.

PHX is just a poor yielding market where the merged airline's cost can't compete. That simple. It doesn't serve an important purpose, either.

PHL and NYC will be consolidated to the extent possible - LGA/NYC focusing on O&D and PHL focusing on acting as a Northeast hub.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
That's not a fact. That's your baseless and ridiculous opinion . Why merge then ?

Airlines merge to consolidate operations and eliminate competition. How are MEM, CVG, LAS and PIT holding up after mergers? Oh, yeah. That's right. Even MSP took a big hit after the merger; and that's the type of hit CLT will take - still large and relevant, but nonetheless a shrunken hub.

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:00:07]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: jporterfi
Posted 2013-02-06 18:00:04 and read 32184 times.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 31):
The way I (and many on here) have seemed to think aobut it, is that they would try to consolidate the PHL and NYC ops to the greatest extent possible, but that would require more slots at JFK and possibly LGA.

Would PHL still be classified as a hub assuming this happens? Also, if the ops are consolidated, could we see LGA and JFK used as connecting points in the AA network (I know they already are now, but I'm referring to an increase in the number of connection there relative to PHL)? I think they would still need to keep PHL as a hub, because I highly doubt they'll get enough slots to move all connecting traffic to LGA/JFK. Not to mention the perimeter rule at LGA would be a problem if they decided to move many flights from PHL to LGA.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 30):
WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

  

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
PHX, probably cut in half

AA doesn't have THAT big of an operation at LAX, do they? A 50% cut seems drastic to me. I would think they would still want a pretty big operation at PHX to compete with AS and UA at LAX and DL at SLC.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-06 18:02:29 and read 32177 times.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 38):
Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
PHX, probably cut in half

AA doesn't have THAT big of an operation at LAX, do they? A 50% cut seems drastic to me. I would think they would still want a pretty big operation at PHX to compete with AS and UA at LAX and DL at SLC.

It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN. LAX won't grow at the expense of PHX, it will simply grow as AA puts more emphasis on growing it organically, continuing what AA started in spring 2011.

This merger also will suck major for consumers, because US is pretty much the most important factor in keeping airfares largely lower in this country by effectively operating on LLC cost principles over a network carrier route network.

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:03:01]

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:04:33]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: tommy767
Posted 2013-02-06 18:08:21 and read 32037 times.

Was hoping for Doug to take a golden parachute and Horton to stay. Dougy is Jeffy in a different suit. Perhaps that rumor will be not true.

Overall, AA/US will be powerful. DFW, MIA, CLT, DCA, and PHL is enough of a reason to believe so. Labor issues will be complicated especially with US/HP not even fully integrated since the merger in 2005. I do feel that AA will go leaps and bound to protect their elite base, something that UA is currently failing at right now.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 39):

It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN.

Yeah all in all, AA isn't THAT big at LAX. Hard to believe they would cut PHX down by that much when AA simply just doesn't even have the proper gate space for a major "cornerstone" hub at LAX. Also keeping in mind that DL and UA hold their own very well out of LAX, making AA not top dog in the market.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-06 18:12:40 and read 31926 times.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Yeah all in all, AA isn't THAT big at LAX. Hard to believe they would cut PHX down by that much when AA simply just doesn't even have the proper gate space for a major "cornerstone" hub at LAX. Also keeping in mind that DL and UA hold their own very well out of LAX, making AA not top dog in the market.

Most of the traffic flows will be handled via DFW, while LAX will focus more on O&D demand (for which it is the largest airport in the world). AA may keep a few high-yielding point-to-point routes, but otherwise, AA will not keep a major hub in between DFW and LAX, especially one with terrible yields and relatively little international (especially business) traffic.

End of story.   

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-06 18:20:03 and read 31836 times.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Obviously being the largest isn't worth anything

It's only worth anything if Delta is the world's largest.
 

What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-06 18:31:26 and read 31611 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 37):
such as: ORDMIA; MIAFCO; SJUBOS; ORFSAN; RICLAX; SLCBHM. Those things can be
handled in any combination by ORD, DFW or MIA, and often better.

Oddly, though perhaps tellingly, a number of those (MIAFCO, SJUBOS, ORFSAN and RICLAX) are probably still best handled by CLT in the combined network.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: panam330
Posted 2013-02-06 18:33:45 and read 31625 times.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

Uh, no. CLT will certainly shrink, but nowhere near that much. If they cut too much, the hub loses its economy of scale and will be unprofitable, like every other dismantled hub.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK... growth is certainly not in the cards.

Fortresses? They wish. ORD is a shell of its former self (which hopefully will be fixed with the new cost structure and E75s, with or without the merger), and JFK is what, 100 flights a day to comparatively few destinations.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Was hoping for Doug to take a golden parachute and Horton to stay. Dougy is Jeffy in a different suit. Perhaps that rumor will be not true.

Doug's had a bumpy road for sure, but he's done a pretty good job at US. He just had to learn the hard way that 'the Tempe way' didn't work on the east coast very well.

I welcome this merger, as long as it doesn't mess with service to the places that US' cost structure makes possible - like DAB. I'd trade a CLT frequency for a MIA one, though!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2013-02-06 18:34:26 and read 31563 times.

So guys, Time to start a new thread about what WN, UA, and DL will bid on in the asset auction X years from now? Also a thread on what number X is?

Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

sigh.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: jfklganyc
Posted 2013-02-06 18:38:46 and read 31528 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

UA, US, and AA will come to an agreement at the CTB.

Some flights need to move to the Terminal C/D complex...just to much at the CTB now...it is bursting at the seams

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-06 18:46:46 and read 31301 times.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 47):
I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

6 gates for 18 flights.... no way. If they want one airline to move I could see UA squeezing otherwise I could see 3 AC and 3 B6 or 4 WN, 1 NK and 1 F9, or really any combination.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-06 18:54:48 and read 31186 times.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
You're being generous...

CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

No it wont. I get so tired of this stupid argument. STL is only 250 miles from ORD and 500 miles from DFW. CLT would be over 600 miles from the nearest large AA hub.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 40):
You don't need, say, 8 daily CLTILM flights anymore, when you can have 4 daily CLTILM, 1 daily to DFW, 2 daily to ORD, and 1 daily to MIA and better serve the market.

That is NOT in fact how mergers work. Dont you notice UA cutting flights to IAH from cities closer to ORD??? In fact cities in the SE that have flights to ORD and DFW will likely LOSE their service or see it reduced in favor of CLT. You DONT overfly your own hubs if you can help it. It is expensive and dilutes yields.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-06 18:56:08 and read 31010 times.

I know that many like myself are just anxious to get the announcement completed so that we can move on to the initial hurdles that come along with a merger. I would say that general consensus is "cautious optimism" in our camp.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-06 18:56:24 and read 31069 times.

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 2):
After looking at this article and watching the video it seemed quite biased in my opinion like a merger is what they want instead of whats really going to happen

Agreed, this doesn't seem quite legit. Sure there's a "source" now but I'll believe it when that weird AA logo is gracing T4 over here.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 40):
Bingo. Now, enter the CLT/PHX fanboys, and let the trollfest begin!

Let me start by saying any airline dumping PHX is going to lose out big. PHX is a large city and is slated to grow exponentially.....not to mention that there are 4 or 5 cities out here with average incomes well over 80,000$..... lots of people wanna fly to and from PHX and US is doing a great job with the 60-70% stronghold they have here now.

Hell, if US drops PHX as a hub post merger, then, with the flow of pax I see, I can smell a second intercontinental flight out of PHX, as well as serious expansion from AM, as well as maybe F9, DL, and UA expanding significantly. Not to mention a second HA flight.

There's such a demand here for flights. There's no way the hub is going away.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-06 18:57:58 and read 31036 times.

Once this merger takes place, AA will be the surviving carrier combined from:

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-06 19:05:13 and read 30699 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 49):
That is NOT in fact how mergers work. Dont you notice UA cutting flights to IAH from cities closer to ORD??? In fact cities in the SE that have flights to ORD and DFW will likely LOSE their service or see it reduced in favor of CLT. You DONT overfly your own hubs if you can help it. It is expensive and dilutes yields.

It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-06 19:05:25 and read 30672 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):
Sure there's a "source" now but I'll believe it when that weird AA logo is gracing T4 over here.



Stand by to be made a believer.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):
There's such a demand here for flights. There's no way the hub is going away.



There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 52):

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?



I think you get em all!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AA767400
Posted 2013-02-06 19:14:20 and read 30044 times.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 46):
Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

I'd argue thats been accomplished already. All labor issues on AA's side have been resolved. US/HP FAs have reached an agreement, and the pilots are in a resolution. They want in all in place before merging.

The only merger that made sense, and was pretty uneventful was a combined DL/NW. UA/CO have yet to fully get their act together. Their SHARES issues, and labor contracts have yet to be ironed out. Not to mention the gutting of Mileage Plus. WN/FL is without issues either. With their rising cost, and logistics hiccups, their not immune either.

No merger is perfect, so lets not make this merger the worst combination to exist.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-06 19:20:43 and read 29793 times.

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

How so? Show me some numbers. People always say "poor" but this airport is always so crowded with people flying in and out for various reasons that pertain to the state of Arizona.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: reffado
Posted 2013-02-06 19:23:50 and read 29652 times.

Hoping to see a settlement soon. I have a small doubt though - won't the courts, along with say, Star, have an issue with OneWorld now holding the biggest South American AND North American carriers?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ridgid727
Posted 2013-02-06 19:27:48 and read 29599 times.

A few years back, they were saying PHX was #11 in the US for O & D traffic.


http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/3903424/

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-06 19:28:28 and read 29582 times.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that I sincerely hope CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed.

I doubt either would stay "intact," as in "no change," but both would definitely still be hubs. The key with all of US' hubs - but in particular CLT and PHX - is that their economics are to a certain extent built upon US' low costs, particularly labor. Once that goes away, which would happen overnight once the AA-US union MOUs kicked in, it would instantly render some portion of the flying at all of those hubs unprofitable.

Some AA hubs (in particular ORD) are in the same boat, but in the opposite direction - they have been struggling for years because the costs were too high, not artificially inflated because the costs were so low.

Nonetheless, CLT and PHL are both exceptional hubs, and hubs that AA could not ever replicate on its own anywhere else. Both have immense value, and would no doubt remain very large and vibrant hubs if a merger occurs.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 24):
PHX is the one hub that has been debatable.

I don't see it as debatable. PHX is going to get cut. Big. I just don't see any way around it. The economic realities are simply inescapable.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 24):
But with AA in CLT and PHL it will provide good competition to DL and UA. AA will finally be a major force along the east coast when you toss DCA in there as well.


Absolutely. A combined "new AA" would be a huge force along the east coast, with hubs well placed from NYC to MIA, with PHL, DCA and CLT in between. AA would be either #1 or #2 in 3 of the 4 major northeast business markets, and an entirely sufficient #3 in NYC (AA with a hub in PHL need not carry as many people through NYC as DL and UA, both of whom rely on it as their primary northeast and Atlantic hub).

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

That has been my position from the day Parker cut the deals with the AA unions. I have no particular problem per se with him taking the helm at a merged AA, along as he doesn't try and turn AA into US.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 33):
LCC would naturally be very cautious in leaving what made money at US

Well too late then.

The thing that has largely been responsible for making money at US has been bankruptcy-era labor contracts that have allowed them to maintain lower fares, and capacity, that would never be sustainable at the costs of their post-bankruptcy and post-merger peers.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 39):
It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN. LAX won't grow at the expense of PHX, it will simply grow as AA puts more emphasis on growing it organically, continuing what AA started in spring 2011.

        

Absolutely. So many seem to focus on the inevitable reductions that are in store for PHX if AA and US merger, and the comparison/relationship to LAX - perhaps because of the geographic proximity. But the reality is that the overlap between PHX and other hubs in a combined network is far more pronounced with DFW than with LAX.

I still contend that if a merger takes place, PHX will be in for substantial reductions in flights and capacity, and that most of that capacity will in fact not be backfilled or shifted to another hub, but simply eliminated altogether to account for the higher combined costs of a merged airline. However, of the flights and capacity that would be shifted to other hubs, I think it's clear that DFW stands to gain the most from that. It handles most of the same traffic flows, has plenty of room to grow, and is a market AA just about dominates. Beyond that, LAX may stand to gain a little bit - not much - of incremental growth, probably from maybe 1-2 extra flights to Hawaii and/or some minor additional domestic flying (like PIT). And ORD might actually pick up some of the displaced PHX capacity as well - connections to/from the Pacific Northwest that US now forces over PHX could in many cases be better handled - at least geographically - over ORD.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.
LGA is one of only two airports in the entire combined system (the other being LAX) where combining gate space would pose a bit of a challenge.

Quoting panam330 (Reply 45):
ORD is a shell of its former self

   A shell that is still one of the largest hubs in the U.S.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 47):
Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

UA, US, and AA will come to an agreement at the CTB.

I think that's probably right. I suspect that if AA and US merge, with regard to the LGA gates they would probably try and strike a "grand bargain" with UA and the PA to consolidate ops in the CTB. If UA was out of C, AA+US could probably fit in C-D.

[Edited 2013-02-06 19:59:37]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: RavenTech
Posted 2013-02-06 19:40:04 and read 29196 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):

I think that's a little optimistic, If the merged carrier shut down PHX tomorrow then I see WN taking 1-2 of the north concourses for expansion. Then all other carriers either up gauging or increase frequency to fill the remaining void. Overall in this scenario PHX will be down because of the amount of connecting from but overall I don't think we are massively over-served.

Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA. The routes probably cut will be those that are currently served by AA from another hub and are very marginal currently for US. Then the remaining routes will probably those routes that currently are working well for PHX now and then right size them for O+D and any connecting where it would be of questionable benefit to try and reroute through other hubs.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Drmlnr1
Posted 2013-02-06 19:41:02 and read 29238 times.

What will happen to the A350's US has on order?? I just hope that if this is indeed true, the combined carrier can make money. DCA will now have a larger op for AA. Will AA keep the DCA-SAN route????

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AllegiantFlyer
Posted 2013-02-06 19:45:16 and read 29155 times.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1319.pdf

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

All you have to do is open up these links and you can see that the area is growing fast and more traffic will be needed.Cutting "in half" could be a huge mistake

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AllegiantFlyer
Posted 2013-02-06 19:46:09 and read 29036 times.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1319.pdf

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

http://www.workforce.az.gov/population-projections.aspx

All you have to do is open up these links and you can see that the area is growing fast and more traffic will be needed.Cutting "in half" could be a huge mistake

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2013-02-06 19:48:02 and read 28991 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
It's WFAA, in addition to Dallas Morning News,

WFAA and the Dallas Morning News are the same company. They work closely together. It is not unusual for a DMN originated story to first appear on WFAA if the paper feels the news might leak out with someone else before they get to print.

However, as noted, WFAA and the DMN both have very good inside source at AA.

The basic news is that the AMR board is going to have an unpreviously scheduled meeting on Monday.

The unions appear to be getting one of their goals - Tom Horton out of the decision making, and most of his team in the executive suites.

However, will that be enough to keep them happy in the long run.

I cannot imagine what a mess merging the America West, the US Airways, the American Airlines and the American Eagle seniority lists for pilots will become.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-06 19:53:27 and read 28848 times.

I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: dw9115
Posted 2013-02-06 20:05:37 and read 28529 times.

US Airways credit card with Barclay's is horrible! I really hope they stay with Americans deal with Citi.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-06 20:07:46 and read 28526 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 64):
WFAA and the Dallas Morning News are the same company. They work closely together. It is not unusual for a DMN originated story to first appear on WFAA if the paper feels the news might leak out with someone else before they get to print.

First off, they aren't the same company. Used to be, aren't anymore. Second, I realize they work closely together. I was simply making the point that this was being reported by multiple different sources, albeit likely all of them were getting their information from the same single leaker, with his own agenda.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 65):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

I agree in general with the premise that if AA and US do merge, the combined carrier stands to gain in the NYC market overall. I'm not sure if it will be a "big" gain, net-net, but I think it would be positive overall.

As to how, there are a few things. First, the combined carrier would be a huge slot holder at New York's capacity-constrained airports, particular JFK and LGA. AA is still sitting on a huge pool of peak-time slots at JFK, and AA and US combined at LGA amount to about 1/3 of all departures. That's big.

The second issue is what they use those slots for. Today, AA's utilization of its precious, prime-time NYC slots - particularly at JFK, but also to some extent LGA - is suboptimal because of the competitive position AA is in. If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

It's true that AA has struggled with some of its network out of JFK in recent years. But that was largely because AA has been fighting an uphill battle with uncompetitive costs, and because AA was using its JFK slots suboptimally (albeit the best AA at the time could do). With the options opened up through a merge, AA could use its slots at both JFK and LGA better. Let DL and B6 fight over the JFK-Florida market, and using JFK or LGA as a major connecting point - I doubt AA wants that anyway. AA should be focusing on linking LGA to major U.S. business O&D markets, and JFK with major longhaul international and transcon business O&D markets. A merger would facilitate that.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: boeingpride800
Posted 2013-02-06 20:09:17 and read 28431 times.

Merger or no merger, what I'm hoping for is a more competitive AA and a changed management. This company needs to have happier employees who are completely on board with the "new" AA before it is ever to actually take flight.

Wishing the best for this company.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: BarryH
Posted 2013-02-06 20:11:33 and read 28481 times.

Not to be a wet blanket, but Bloomberg's coverage seems the most rationale. And assigning a value to US' share of the combined company and who runs it aren't trivial loose ends. We're all well aware of what certain debt holders and employee groups want to see as an outcome but for the most part it's been bluster. And those that have been most vocal don't (singularly) hold enough sway to ensure an outcome. Fun times ahead.

No decisions have been made on how ownership would be split between creditors of American parent AMR Corp. and US Airways investors or who would lead the company, said four of the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

A deal would create the world’s largest airline, giving American the scale to compete with rivals that surpassed it in size amid a wave of consolidation during the past decade. The possible merger gained support late last month from a group holding $1.5 billion in unsecured AMR debt, people familiar with the matter said then.

The bondholders are pushing for a deal by Feb. 15, the expiration date for a non-disclosure agreement they signed with the two airlines. Talks may still falter, and there is no guarantee of an agreement by that date, the people said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...o-intensify-as-deadline-looms.html

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 63):
PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

If those businesses are call centers or regional branches of companies headquartered elsewhere the impact on air travel won't be that significant. And you can't unring a bell. LCC competition in PHX is fierce and the resulting yield pressure is what makes PHX unattractive to network carriers.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-06 20:22:23 and read 28110 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 53):
It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

I think that's a bit overstated. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
PHX is going to get cut. Big. I just don't see any way around it. The economic realities are simply inescapable.

The irony of the whole situation is that if PHX gets cut (although I doubt it will be reduced to spoke size entirely) then that basically scales down the last of the HP "hub" assets that US acquired in the merger.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
I have no particular problem per se with him taking the helm at a merged AA, along as he doesn't try and turn AA into US.

Or UA, for that matter. That is why despite all of my frustration as a UA elite flier, I am weary of jumping ship to AA (here at ORD) in fear that I may have to go through this all again.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA.

Probably will play a similar role to CLE in the merged UA network?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: gemuser
Posted 2013-02-06 20:23:51 and read 28107 times.

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 63):
Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

Perhaps a slightly off topic slant, but can I ask where is the water coming from to support all those people. My understanding is that the Colorado River system is pretty well maxed out already.

As an Australian water is always of interest in any discussion of population growth.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-06 20:29:20 and read 27998 times.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
If the merged carrier shut down PHX tomorrow then I see WN taking 1-2 of the north concourses for expansion. Then all other carriers either up gauging or increase frequency to fill the remaining void. Overall in this scenario PHX will be down because of the amount of connecting from but overall I don't think we are massively over-served.

Agree with this - Southwest will likely be the big winner in Phoenix after this. I wouldn't expect two concourses, but one would seem reasonable. Between that and increasing their local passenger mix (which would improve yields) it would be a good gain.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA. The routes probably cut will be those that are currently served by AA from another hub and are very marginal currently for US. Then the remaining routes will probably those routes that currently are working well for PHX now and then right size them for O+D and any connecting where it would be of questionable benefit to try and reroute through other hubs.

Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now. Airways right now has about 260 flights a day, going up to 290 when the Flex Flight operation is in place. You have five banks in each direction; you'd likely see this cut down to three banks in each direction, peaking out at about 125-150 flights/day. I tend to think the flex flights would be gone post-merger, with redeyes left to Charlotte, Philadelphia, Miami, Kennedy, O'Hare and maybe Boston (which I doubt, as US can't even keep a year round redeye there).

Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Now, I expect a decent AA presence in PHX to remain. There is a market there that will value the First Class, lounges, frequent flyer perks, etc. that American offers and Southwest will not. It just becomes a matter of right-sizing the market to find the balance between keeping these benefits and finding profitability. Phoenix, at least unlike some of the midwestern cities such as CVG, PIT, and STL, has a lot more potential lying ahead of it - it's still struggling with the weight of the Great Recession, but I'd say the potential is there (and I'd love to see it - I loved my year living in Scottsdale).

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-06 20:35:08 and read 27845 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 52):
Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?

Penn Central?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: RavenTech
Posted 2013-02-06 20:35:49 and read 27898 times.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 71):

Another major source is a large underground water table. In Peoria (15-20 mins NW of PHX), the major source IIRC is well water with partial replenishment from the sanitary system cleaning the used water and discharging back into the ground.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):

Just from looking at the wikipedia of the airport then more/less. Maybe a little more mainline especially given the large maintenance base, but that can also move out as well (though will probably be a quite a while down the road based on the size).

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-02-06 20:40:38 and read 27734 times.

Quoting Drmlnr1 (Reply 61):
What will happen to the A350's US has on order??

I imagine it would be cancelled in favour of some additional A32Xneos.

American has orders and options for up to 100 787s, with 42 of these being "firm" (meaning having slots assigned for delivery), so having 10 A350s makes no sense whatsoever for the new AA.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-06 20:51:14 and read 27492 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
AA+US could probably fit in C-D

A lot of LGA passengers show up at 'terminal C' when they really want 'concourse C' at terminal B. So, to be clear, when you say 'C-D', what you mean is 'concourses C and D at terminal B', correct? FYI, Delta boarding passes say terminal C or D...no other airline (that I've seen) at LGA denotes what terminal is to be used.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PHLwok
Posted 2013-02-06 20:52:18 and read 27456 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 65):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

This is why all the folks saying JFK will replace PHL can't be correct - JFK can't replace PHL either operationally or geographically. And if you close PHL as a hub, you lose a lot of traffic from the country's 5th largest metro area. JFK also does not have much domestic feed, nor can it expand to either.

JFK is not a PHL replacement. Aside from some in the PHL area driving there for nonstops to far afield, such as Asia, that have been more available in recent years from EWR anyway, it's a true pain to get to JFK from the Philly area. Heck, it can be hard to get there from Manhattan at rush hour with any kind of speed.

Quoting commavia (Reply 67):
If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

If the merged company's management is smart, this is what they'll do as this is where the opportunity is. It would be well positioned to use PHL correctly, would have the focus city at DCA serving the DC metro with its higher yields and convenient-to-DC location and limited connections, could finally make better use of LGA slots, and use JFK for international O&D and traffic pushed there by LGA perimeter restrictions (e.g., NYC-LAX/SFO). Additionally, you'd have the geographically advantageous hub in CLT and what is probably the best located hub in the US to the Caribbean and most of Latin America in MIA. Properly executed, that is one very dominant carrier in the East, the most densely populated part of the country by a long shot.

Less clear to me is the PHX situation, as much transcon traffic heading to California from points east can route via DFW, but AA at LAX also can't expand significantly without more terminal capacity, and PHX is a large and fast growing area that they shouldn't cede to WN for O&D traffic reasons. Maybe it becomes more like DCA without the perimeter rule - good connectivity to the rest of the country to support O&D and some regional connections so someone flying DEN-SAN on AA wouldn't have to route via DFW or a RJ on LAX-SAN.

We seem to have these very similar discussions around hub closures every time AA/US comes up here; most analyses ignore the opportunities and focus on pure downsizing, and misunderstand how isolated JFK is from a ground transportation perspective and how much it can't grow due to slots.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: coairman
Posted 2013-02-06 21:04:35 and read 27240 times.

I would love to see a AA-US merger hub optimization internal merger document. I bet CLT and PHX are hit the hardest. I think AA's MIA hub will hurt CLT as far as route duplication. PHX will shrink at the benefit of LAX and DFW.

[Edited 2013-02-06 21:13:09]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: alfa164
Posted 2013-02-06 21:04:48 and read 27204 times.

Quoting reffado (Reply 57):
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):
I think that's a bit overstated. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

MSP operations are down because DL eliminated flying with the smallest planes (Saabs, most 50-passenger RJ's) and replaced them with bigger aircraft. The result has been about the same passenger numbers, but better planes and smoother operations. It looks like AA is approaching ORD with the same idea.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
I think that's probably right. I suspect that if AA and US merge, with regard to the LGA gates they would probably try and strike a "grand bargain" with UA and the PA to consolidate ops in the CTB. If UA was out of C, AA+US could probably fit in C-D.

I don't expect AA to be too welcome in C and D; DL spend millions to upgrade their gates (swapped from US) in C, and D... well it isn't called the "Delta Flight Center"for no reason!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-02-06 21:06:19 and read 27026 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):
. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

The metaphor is very good. DL kept the hubs that were obviously viable. Including things like SLC and MSP. Did they tweak capacity, and employ cross-fleeting, of course they did.

Having said CLT and PHL are viable, AA's ORD situation is unknown and little discussed. LAX+JFK are, to put it mildly, question marks. If AA were making money there, we would have seen gigantic AA operations there similar to another DFW. But even when JFK had slots open, AA didn't use them. Didn't want them. Same at LAX - they could expand but they (eventually tire of losing money there).

I am fully a believer on DFW/MIA and PHL/CLT as permanent hubs for a combined carrier. And DCA. The rest? Questionable imo.

[Edited 2013-02-06 21:16:07]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: infiniti329
Posted 2013-02-06 21:11:33 and read 26892 times.

As much as I dont want this merger to happen....If it does and the they are forced to give up slots at LGA, the only airlines I see going after them are WN & B6 and it will be a bloodbath... And if Terminal C is vacated I see WN with the advanatge as it stands they have more flights than B6

Flight Total
WN 27 (FL 11) 3 Gates
B6 18 3 Gates

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: capitalflyer
Posted 2013-02-06 21:18:00 and read 26791 times.

Will US DCA slots go to American in case of merger, or will we have a huge free for all?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-06 21:22:41 and read 26685 times.

Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: alfa164
Posted 2013-02-06 21:26:02 and read 26637 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

I hope not! Please keep the MAT... and bring back the ferry service from Manhattan!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: BDL757
Posted 2013-02-06 21:33:30 and read 26508 times.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 79):
I don't expect AA to be too welcome in C and D; DL spend millions to upgrade their gates (swapped from US) in C, and D... well it isn't called the "Delta Flight Center"for no reason!

Not quite, I believe he is talking about CONCOURSES C and D which are in TERMINAL B. Not terminals C and D...it is really confusing for the pax.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-06 21:35:52 and read 26503 times.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 82):

Will US DCA slots go to American in case of merger, or will we have a huge free for all?

Yes, but I'd most certainly expect some divestiture required by DOT and/or DOJ. AA would add 50 daily slots to US' 243, giving them 293 out of the 437 or so slots at DCA (this would be just over 2/3rds of the slots. I could see the 12 slots that AA has for BNA/RDU being divested to slightly appease the feds.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

Doubt it. The Marine Air Terminal is significantly closer to Manhattan than the Terminal C/D complex, chopping off a good 1.5-2 miles off (which in New York traffic can mean 10 minutes each way). Not to mention the lack of hassle - I've flown out of the MAT about 10 times in the past year and there's never been more than 3-4 people ahead of me at security. With the 15 minute check-in times at MAT, it's something that appeals to business travelers and would be difficult to replicate at C/D.

Likewise, if the new combined carrier puts their Shuttle in Pier A of the CTB for now, it could offer a quicker security check given that it's only B6 and AC in there, rather than throwing it into CTB-C/D.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: infiniti329
Posted 2013-02-06 21:41:39 and read 26389 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?


hmmm this would be temtping for DL as this will save them alot $$$... and that side of the airport would officially become DeltaLand

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2013-02-06 21:44:35 and read 26323 times.

This would need court and creditor approval. This story has gotten way ahead of itself. Maybe the intention of both boards to merge and to seek court and creditor approval will be announced. But AA can not do this via board approval alone. They are still bound to the creditors - who ultimately have the last word on this, as does the judge.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-02-06 21:55:19 and read 26155 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 88):
They are still bound to the creditors - who ultimately have the last word on this, as does the judge.

Who's to say they haven't already asked the creditors and the judge for a hypothetical yes/no or will before making the announcement? There's just too much going on behind the scenes to know exactly what will lead to the (supposed) announcement.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nikeson13
Posted 2013-02-06 22:06:17 and read 26048 times.

So will there be a joint livery like UA/CO or will it stay the new AA livery?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-06 22:22:19 and read 25852 times.

[quote=PHX787,reply=56]How so? Show me some numbers. People always say "poor" but this airport is always so crowded with people flying in and out for various reasons that pertain to the state of Arizona.[/quote

This is no different than people not understanding load factor vs. profitability. I don't care if every seat in and out of Phoenix is spoken for, if the yield isn't there, it doesn't matter how full the airplanes are or how crowded the airport is. As far as numbers, let me simply invite you to spend some time at the T4 ticket counter after 10am.....very minimal originating traffic......those concourses are FULL OF CONNECTIONS for the rest of the day.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: oc2dc
Posted 2013-02-06 22:57:53 and read 25487 times.

Being the biggest airline sounds nice, but i'm concerned about in-flight services. American is already ok. They have wi-fi on many of their planes and the overhead videos aren't terrible. With the new jets AA has on order, they will definitely do great in the IFE department. However, I hear US is horrendous. Advertisements on the back of seats, no IFE whatsoever and very little wi-fi. I wonder what AA elites will think when they step aboard a US plane with US crews.
'
Lets face it, US is grades below AA. I'm concerned Parker won't care to continue down the path of the "new American."

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Antoniemey
Posted 2013-02-06 23:03:27 and read 25428 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Why would you want to purchase passengers?

  

Quoting nikeson13 (Reply 90):
So will there be a joint livery like UA/CO or will it stay the new AA livery?

That's only been answered three times in EVERY thread about this possible merger...

The new AA livery and branding will stay. It MIGHT be tweaked, but I doubt it.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: wn676
Posted 2013-02-06 23:40:45 and read 25062 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 56):
How so?

Keep in mind we're talking only about US; their entire operation is focused primarily on connections. Their model isn't to attract a large number of local passengers, which is why you see the bank structure. WN captures a better local traffic ratio and that has been the case for years. It believe it's in the range of 65/35 local to connecting with US having basically the opposite, although I can't seem to find the article where I remember those numbers being posted.

[Edited 2013-02-06 23:41:36]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DIRECTFLT
Posted 2013-02-07 00:19:08 and read 24893 times.

Another source for the merger story from CBS news- Dallas:

Wednesday, February 6, 2013 6:01 PM CDT

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/02/06/s...-aaus-air-merger-coming-next-week/

[Edited 2013-02-07 00:21:21]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: DIRECTFLT
Posted 2013-02-07 00:41:09 and read 24637 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 72):
Did I miss any?

Penn Central?

The USPS

(Oooops, too early to call that one...)

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: gemuser
Posted 2013-02-07 02:56:09 and read 23829 times.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 73):
Another major source is a large underground water table.

Is this an artesian aquifer or local water table? In either case it seems unlikely to support the population growth being talked about in this thread.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: skytony
Posted 2013-02-07 03:02:12 and read 23801 times.

Maybe they will change the name back to American Airways?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-07 03:05:57 and read 23813 times.

Quoting coairman (Reply 77):

CLT and MIA do not compete for traffic flows on probably 90% or more of the traffic. There is also enough traffic to the carribbean for flights from both hubs.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-07 03:53:27 and read 23438 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 58):
and an entirely sufficient #3 in NYC



They would be around 19.3 million passengers per year combined at EWR, JFK, LGA.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 64):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled?



There really wouldn't be a change, for instance I don't see them bringing back the JFK-Caribbean routes they axed. Those are going to be routed through PHL, CLT and MIA where there's no competition.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: tommyy
Posted 2013-02-07 03:59:52 and read 23430 times.

What will happan to the flight to TLV, AA never flew there because of the TWA pension issue, will they stop the PHL-TLV or settle with Israel and move the flight to JFK or MIA where there is a lot more traffic to Israel ?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-07 04:05:19 and read 23394 times.

Quoting tommyy (Reply 100):
What will happan to the flight to TLV, AA never flew there because of the TWA pension issue, will they stop the PHL-TLV or settle with Israel and move the flight to JFK or MIA where there is a lot more traffic to Israel ?

Since the surving company will be AA, and they've never shown any indication they were willing to settle in the past 13 years, I'm going to say TLV will not be on AA's route map.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-07 04:48:38 and read 22864 times.

Excellent analysis from Swelbar. He makes good points. In particular:

Collaboration is critical. That doesn’t mean Tom Horton must be a part of the new American if the architects of any deal determine he’s not welcome. Nor does it mean that the entire American team in place today is necessarily the best choice. But if the leadership crown goes to Parker’s Phoenix posse, they would be making a grave error to impose the US Airways style on the new American without leveraging American’s successes and cultural assets.

American has proven adept at managing its regional affiliations, code share partners, joint ventures with British Airways and JAL and a loyalty program that arguably is more valuable than US Airways itself. Its marketing and IT capabilities exceed anything US Airways has ever tried. And American knows far better than its potential new partner how to treat the premium customer who wants warm nuts and lie-flat seats in first class.

I can only hope that the “best of the best” of the two companies will be a part of any new one, because that’s the only way the new airline will compete effectively with first movers Delta, United and Southwest.


Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 69):
The irony of the whole situation is that if PHX gets cut (although I doubt it will be reduced to spoke size entirely) then that basically scales down the last of the HP "hub" assets that US acquired in the merger.

Ironic, yes.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 71):
Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now. Airways right now has about 260 flights a day, going up to 290 when the Flex Flight operation is in place. You have five banks in each direction; you'd likely see this cut down to three banks in each direction, peaking out at about 125-150 flights/day. I tend to think the flex flights would be gone post-merger, with redeyes left to Charlotte, Philadelphia, Miami, Kennedy, O'Hare and maybe Boston (which I doubt, as US can't even keep a year round redeye there).

Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Now, I expect a decent AA presence in PHX to remain. There is a market there that will value the First Class, lounges, frequent flyer perks, etc. that American offers and Southwest will not. It just becomes a matter of right-sizing the market to find the balance between keeping these benefits and finding profitability. Phoenix, at least unlike some of the midwestern cities such as CVG, PIT, and STL, has a lot more potential lying ahead of it - it's still struggling with the weight of the Great Recession, but I'd say the potential is there (and I'd love to see it - I loved my year living in Scottsdale).

  

I pretty much agree on all of the above. PHX is a huge market, with a both a large outbound and inbound demand component, and a respectable business market. But, all that being said, PHX does not require a hub the size of which US now operates there in order to cater to those markets. PHX is a hub of its size today because US, with its limited network, has little alternative. With a merger, several excellent alternatives instantly appear.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 75):
A lot of LGA passengers show up at 'terminal C' when they really want 'concourse C' at terminal B. So, to be clear, when you say 'C-D', what you mean is 'concourses C and D at terminal B', correct?

I was referring to Concourses C-D in the CTB.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 79):
AA's ORD situation is unknown and little discussed.

It's relatively known. It's a huge hub in one of America's largest population centers. Finally freed from union contract strictures, and thus with the right costs and the right fleet, ORD should be a thriving hub. Not to mention, if there is a merger, ORD's location means it may well stand to pick up some additional traffic as network gaps are filled in and hubs optimized.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 79):
LAX+JFK are, to put it mildly, question marks. If AA were making money there, we would have seen gigantic AA operations there similar to another DFW. But even when JFK had slots open, AA didn't use them. Didn't want them. Same at LAX - they could expand but they (eventually tire of losing money there).

I don't really see how they are question marks. For starters, it's not as easy as saying "if AA were making money, they'd have gigantic operations." Both JFK and LAX are capacity-constrained (for different reasons) and thus even if AA were making huge money, they couldn't have "gigantic" operations. But either way, the size and scope of AA's operations at both airports reflects their market realities. Both cater to massive local markets, but hyper-competitive ones. AA uses both to connect longhaul and shorthaul networks, and provide key connectivity for partners.

I don't see why any of that, in general, would change with a merger. I see LAX changing very little, as the role it serves is unique and cannot be replicated. JFK I see changing somewhat - lots of peak-time slots there are today being used for 1-per-day connections to international flights. Those I see being replaced with more longhaul (international and transcon) flights catering to the huge local NYC O&D market, while connections are shifted to some extent over PHL. But AA would still maintain a large presence in NYC (JFK and LGA).

Quoting STT757 (Reply 99):
They would be around 19.3 million passengers per year combined at EWR, JFK, LGA.

Like I said - a very respectable #3. Again - with a hub in PHL, AA need not duke it out for sheer seat/passenger count in NYC with UA and DL. Both of those carriers need to fight it out for volume in NYC because they both operate hubs of some form in NYC that require volume to drive frequency, and thus support their hubs. AA could focus its NYC presence on catering to O&D, a market AA knows quite well, and as such being #3 - with hundreds of daily departures out of EWR/LGA/JFK to the prime business markets - would be more than sufficient.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 101):
Since the surving company will be AA, and they've never shown any indication they were willing to settle in the past 13 years, I'm going to say TLV will not be on AA's route map.

If there's a merger, I expect the "new AA" to be flying to TLV, not only from PHL but possibly also from JFK. If the market is as lucrative as it seems, they'll figure out how to make it work.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-07 05:01:59 and read 22609 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 101):
If there's a merger, I expect the "new AA" to be flying to TLV, not only from PHL but possibly also from JFK. If the market is as lucrative as it seems, they'll figure out how to make it work.



Is it worth it though? How much can TLV earn AA vs. what the settlement will cost. We had a good thread a year or two and it was brought up that with interest and such the settlement due to Israeli employees of TWA is over $20 million. How many years would AA need to fly to TLV before they made back the $20 Million? If they paid it back in 2001 they would have save themselves a fortune.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-07 05:14:16 and read 22496 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 65):
The second issue is what they use those slots for. Today, AA's utilization of its precious, prime-time NYC slots - particularly at JFK, but also to some extent LGA - is suboptimal because of the competitive position AA is in. If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

Ok, the strategy you lined out makes complete sense. Many people have said they will rationalize PHL in favor of JFK. And while I agree they may rightsize certain PHL markets I don't see them drastically cutting PHL. Mainly because I don't see them building that megahub in JFK with 400-500 daily flts.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: jfklganyc
Posted 2013-02-07 05:31:22 and read 22316 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 62):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

You're a smart man. See past a.net folklore to reality. The new AA at LGA/JFK/EWR will be AAs EWR slots+USs EWR slots+AAs LGA slots+USs LGA slots+AAs JFK slots (used and unused)+USs JFK slots.
Nothing more, nothing less...unless they get a deal to offload or gain more.

Quoting commavia (Reply 64):
Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use.

Those aren't going anywhere and you know it. AA doesn't even know what to do with the JFK slots they have now. It is use or lose. You keep talking about these gold mine routes that could be started...what are they? where are they? They could start them right now. And if there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, B6, DL or the 80 other airlines at the airport probably already serve it...alongside AA.

You also put the nix on Florida routes...dont know where you are from...but Florida is NYCs biggest market. And if you are not a player in that market, you are not a player in NYC. Because the guys flying to LHR in AAs high yielding business want to use their miles to get their kids to the Mouse House...plain and simple.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: milesrich
Posted 2013-02-07 06:24:57 and read 21416 times.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 10):
Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
By what measure are they basing this off of?

AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Before deregulation, Eastern Air Lines was the largest carrier based on this criteria, but only Eastern trumpeted that fact. United was the largest in terms of ppms.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-07 06:53:32 and read 20944 times.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
Those aren't going anywhere and you know it. AA doesn't even know what to do with the JFK slots they have now. It is use or lose. You keep talking about these gold mine routes that could be started...what are they? where are they? They could start them right now. And if there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, B6, DL or the 80 other airlines at the airport probably already serve it...alongside AA.

Well the thought is they could route BWI, CLE, etc. through PHL as the connecting hub. But as you pointed out where are the prime routes, particularly O&D routes, out of JFK. You have LAX, SFO, MIA, LHR, and probably some caribbean markets. However, they have also cut JFK-caribbean, especially with the recent announcement of SDQ/STI receiving the axe and haven't they struggled with 2nd/3rd tier European airports like MUC, VCE, FRA, DUB, AMS, GLA. Many of which face stiff competition at JFK and practically none in PHL.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-07 07:12:46 and read 20616 times.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
Those aren't going anywhere and you know it.

Thank you for telling me what I do and don't "know." And for your information, no, I don't "know" any more or less than you do. I think the scenario I laid out is entirely plausible - indeed likely - if AA and US merge: PHL becomes the true connecting "hub" while JFK/LGA are optimized primarily for the huge NYC O&D market.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
It is use or lose. You keep talking about these gold mine routes that could be started...what are they?

Internationally - TLV, FRA, GLA. There's three right there. With the right costs and right equipment, I think all 3 would work for AA out of JFK.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
They could start them right now.

They don't have sufficient slots. That's my point. Today AA has to balance the slot utilization at JFK for both O&D and connections. If AA needed to rely on JFK less for connections, they could free up some slots for more O&D-oriented routes.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
And if there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, B6, DL or the 80 other airlines at the airport probably already serve it...alongside AA.

AA, B6 and DL can coexist at JFK (and in NYC in general).

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
You also put the nix on Florida routes...dont know where you are from...but Florida is NYCs biggest market. And if you are not a player in that market, you are not a player in NYC. Because the guys flying to LHR in AAs high yielding business want to use their miles to get their kids to the Mouse House...plain and simple.

I didn't say AA exits NYC-Florida. I simply said AA could let DL and B6 fight over it. AA can maintain a token presence in the main NYC-Florida markets (MCO, TPA and MIA/somewhere in South Florida). But AA doesn't need to spend resources fighting DL and B6 for market share on JFK-TPA. Let them have it.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 105):
and haven't they struggled with 2nd/3rd tier European airports like MUC, VCE, FRA, DUB, AMS, GLA

Not really. AA hasn't really flown JFK-"secondary" Europe much if at all for years. For around the last decade, AA has remained relatively stable at JFK - the only JFK-Europe routes AA has cancelled in that time have been BRU and BUD. But AA has added several more, and all the rest have stayed around.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-07 07:32:43 and read 20202 times.

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 6):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

Actually, the tail is starting to grow on me.

What US could do, post merger, is paint the planes in the US livery, replacing US Airways with American, but keep the new AA striped tail.

But, if the deal goes through, would the advertising change to the new new American, since it would be the new American with a new owner?

And, would Parker take out the first class cabins on the 773s and the trans-con A321s. After all, US doesn't have any 3-class cabins. US has managed to do well without the finicky corporate types and celebrities. So, why does the combined AA/US need those passengers.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-07 07:36:10 and read 20168 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 106):
Not really. AA hasn't really flown JFK-"secondary" Europe much if at all for years. For around the last decade, AA has remained relatively stable at JFK - the only JFK-Europe routes AA has cancelled in that time have been BRU and BUD. But AA has added several more, and all the rest have stayed around.

I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season.
Here are the destinations.
LHR
MAN
MAD
MXP
CDG

I know LHR is a huge market but the number of destinations is rather underwhelming. I don't know you can simply move US' PHL flts to JFK (AMS, DUB, VCE, etc) and just expect that they will thrive. Why hasn't AA started them in the past? PHL doesn't have nearly as much O&D as JFK but they cover the gap with a rather strong connection point that JFK currently does not have.

My point is that yes AA can probably adjust JFK and add some additional markets but PHL has a relatively strong European network that the combined carrier should leverage.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-07 07:42:40 and read 20018 times.

Okay..... now that just about everyone and their Uncle Phil has chimed in about all the hubs here (and I know we're all waiting to hear from Granny Ida who'll be along soon with here pushing in her    ), I'm thinking along the lines of probably a smallish detail..... but would the current AA-B6 code share maybe continue if there were a merger? Would the new AA need to continue with B6 here? From the B6 website....

convenient connections between 26 domestic JetBlue markets and 15 international destinations served by American Airlines from New York's JFK and Boston's Logan airports.

So at present it seems that AA and B6 make each others life a bit smoother, especially at JFK and BOS.

But has BK or would any merger plans affect this? And didn't AA and AS just expand some code-sharing as well recently? If this were recent..... maybe these ex-OW code-shares will remain?


 

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-07 07:46:16 and read 19927 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 50):
It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

Network optimization means you do less overflying of your hubs, not more. If anything longer haul RJ flights from DFW to cities in the SE will be cut in favor of CLT unless those routes have lots of local DFW traffic or lots of traffic to cities not served from CLT. I can use your argument against DFW as well. Saying that DFW will lose flights to ICT, OKC and TUL and that traffic will go to CLT instead. Makes no sense.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-07 07:46:33 and read 19936 times.

Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: xaapb
Posted 2013-02-07 07:46:58 and read 19958 times.

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 51):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor

Flying from MEX to LAS via PHX is what most of the time my family and I do, not to mention that normally US have the best fares to LAS via PHX. I've also seen many passengers going via PHX to other parts of the US and even Canada.

Greetings.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AA787
Posted 2013-02-07 07:57:28 and read 19742 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season.
Here are the destinations.
LHR
MAN
MAD
MXP
CDG

You are missing ZRH and BCN

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-07 08:00:46 and read 19703 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
Why hasn't AA started them in the past? PHL doesn't have nearly as much O&D as JFK but they cover the gap with a rather strong connection point that JFK currently does not have.

AA hasn't had the right size fleet for a lot of these markets. The 767-300ER fleet is stretched pretty thin as it is; the 777 is simply too much aircraft and it wasn't until recently they started using the 757 over the pond (and even there, that's a limited subfleet given that they also use them ex-MIA to South America). It most likely became a matter of picking the markets where they could earn the most revenues over upgauging markets that didn't need bigger aircraft to free up additional 767s.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rob2507
Posted 2013-02-07 08:05:31 and read 19573 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 111):
Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.

What about putting UA into the current AA or US gates, and AA or US into the new UA gates currently under construction? I have to think that Massport wouldn't want to split up airlines, and this would allow both airlines to have a contiguous presence.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: flyinryan99
Posted 2013-02-07 08:11:41 and read 19460 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 110):
Network optimization means you do less overflying of your hubs, not more. If anything longer haul RJ flights from DFW to cities in the SE will be cut in favor of CLT unless those routes have lots of local DFW traffic or lots of traffic to cities not served from CLT. I can use your argument against DFW as well. Saying that DFW will lose flights to ICT, OKC and TUL and that traffic will go to CLT instead. Makes no sense.

While it may make sense in theory about over flying hubs, look at what DL has done. They have cut almost all small cities that have nothing but connections. Only cities with a decent amount of O/D and connections are surviving. You will dilute your yield if you run too many connections with little to no O/D out of your hub. I am going to side with MAH as I could see CLT overall lower in flight frequencies however, they could easily pick up new destinations in which AA already flies but is not served by US. I'm thinking cities like GRR, FWA, TOL will gain a couple of daily flights. While these frequencies will not make up for the cuts they may have in their existing cities, the hub will be strengthened. IMO, having more hubs from a spoke helps the strength of network itself even if it's at lower frequencies.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: sccutler
Posted 2013-02-07 08:32:43 and read 19206 times.

1. US ain't acquiring AA.

2. I have it on excellent authority that, not only will the combined carrier's HQ be in Texas; the decision has been made that, in order to avoid excessive territoriality among the combined work forces, the new juggernaut airline is to be renamed, "Braniff International Airways."

Remember, you heard it here first!  

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-07 08:33:04 and read 19080 times.

What are the chances of a daily AS flight to CLT

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: YYZbound
Posted 2013-02-07 08:34:47 and read 19057 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):
And, would Parker take out the first class cabins on the 773s and the trans-con A321s. After all, US doesn't have any 3-class cabins. US has managed to do well without the finicky corporate types and celebrities. So, why does the combined AA/US need those passengers.

There's HUGE amounts of money having contracts with where those premium passengers come from. The studios are required contractually through SAG for instance, to fly celebrities in First class.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2013-02-07 08:37:41 and read 19045 times.

Quoting skytony (Reply 95):
Maybe they will change the name back to American Airways?

If so, we need to watch this video!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCnWLR28pfE

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-07 08:38:50 and read 19016 times.

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 74):
Less clear to me is the PHX situation, as much transcon traffic heading to California from points east can route via DFW, but AA at LAX also can't expand significantly without more terminal capacity, and PHX is a large and fast growing area that they shouldn't cede to WN for O&D traffic reasons. Maybe it becomes more like DCA without the perimeter rule - good connectivity to the rest of the country to support O&D and some regional connections so someone flying DEN-SAN on AA wouldn't have to route via DFW or a RJ on LAX-SAN.

At LAX? The solution may just have presented itself. With US's impending move to T3 and LAWA's recent decision to redevelop T3 as part of the LAX Specific Plan, the opportunity is there for the new AA to takeover and expand into the new T3. (T3 and T4 could be linked by an airside bus until the terminal tram is built.)

While we are speculating, the new AA could also strike a bargain with LAWA to takeover the east side of the South Concourse of the new TBIT. That is the concourse adjacent to T4. LAWA might be willing to consider this once the satellite to the new TBIT or the extension to the new TBIT north concourse are operational. (The satellite is in the planning phase. There will be a connector building between T4 and TBIT.)

Most of the terminal redevelopment at LAX will be taking place in space adjacent to the AA terminal. The new AA will have many options at LAX.

[Edited 2013-02-07 08:41:26]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: sccutler
Posted 2013-02-07 08:45:05 and read 18900 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):

But, if the deal goes through, would the advertising change to the new new American, since it would be the new American with a new owner?

Meh.

The "New Owner" of the combined entity will be, predominantly, the stakeholders of AA. When the dust settles, it will (from a shareholders' perspective) be more like AA acquired US/HP. Don't lose sight of which is the tail, and which is the dog.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: panamair
Posted 2013-02-07 09:02:40 and read 18613 times.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 114):
until recently they started using the 757 over the pond (and even there, that's a limited subfleet given that they also use them ex-MIA to South America

AA has 18 75Ls (configured for international premium flying) and to date, they have been underutilizing them for their intended missions...many of them end up on domestic and Caribbean runs (I was just on one the other day between JFK and SXM, for example); I don't think the number of frames is a reason for not starting more JFK-Europe flights...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-07 09:07:17 and read 18529 times.

The post-merger viewpoints on the PHX hub are too optimistic. The main objective of airline mergers in the U.S. today is to reduce capacity so airlines have the pricing power to become / maintain profitability. This becomes especially important during high fuel prices or economic downturns.

This means removing capacity from the network and vastly reducing and/or eliminating weak hubs. I think the hub is eliminated over the course of time. There are very limited traffic flows that benefit from PHX's existence as a hub and as many have stated, the traffic is lower yield traffic that the combined carrier needs to purge from its network.

DL is in the process of eliminating MEM and slowly CVG. UA is still young in their integration process, but CLE will most likely see reductions and eventual elimination as a hub once UA gets further along in their network integration process and the older gas guzzling ERJs that primarily serve CLE are retired.

Keep in mind it takes time to draw down hubs and is usually done in a stair step format. It took years before AA officially eliminated STL as a hub. But the STL hub was redundant in the AA network back then as much as PHX will be redundant in the combined US/AA network.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-07 09:11:09 and read 18450 times.

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 116):
While it may make sense in theory about over flying hubs, look at what DL has done.

There has actually been a reduction of that. Especially from UA. From DL there has been some like GRB losing ATL but that is coming back.

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 116):
You will dilute your yield if you run too many connections with little to no O/D out of your hub. I am going to side with MAH as I could see CLT overall lower in flight frequencies however, they could easily pick up new destinations in which AA already flies but is not served by US. I'm thinking cities like GRR, FWA, TOL will gain a couple of daily flights

I dont think TOL but I do think GRR could get CLT plus DCA. Your first point is weighed against the cost of the flight too. 50 seat RJs from DFW to SC, GA are not efficient. Unless there is lots of local traffic tp DFW, (which there very well may be), those routes would be candidates for cuts. This is exactly why UA dropped CID-IAH. Route the traffic thru ORD or DEN rather then a long thin RJ route to IAH.

I think it is possible there could be some ORD cuts to cities in the midwest in exchange for 1-2 daily flights to CLT in order to reduce ORD delays and congestion. GRR, FWA, are good candidates.

Also what is happening in ATL will have an impact on CLT.
1. There are only two SE hubs (ATL and CLT)
2. MIA is a NOT a substitute for CLT, plus carribbean LFs are high with decent yields
3. Closing CVG will help CLT a bit, though not that much
4. CLT is not STL in any way shape for form. CLT is a growing city with a vibrant finance industry, STL is not.

The idea that AA will substantially reduce the size of a profitable hub in a rapidly growing region of the country is wrong. I could see PHX lose service more than CLT. Even PHL, while it has international value, has domestic value that is no greater than CLT.


Remember this is A.net. Where a substantial number of posters insisted that DL was going to bid for all or pieces of AA. It never happened as I said it would never happen.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: D L X
Posted 2013-02-07 09:19:45 and read 18330 times.

The REAL question is...

if this merger happens, will there then be THREE American Airlines Arenas in the United States?

(Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami)

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-07 09:27:03 and read 18299 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 121):
At LAX? The solution may just have presented itself. With US's impending move to T3 and LAWA's recent decision to redevelop T3 as part of the LAX Specific Plan, the opportunity is there for the new AA to takeover and expand into the new T3. (T3 and T4 could be linked by an airside bus until the terminal tram is built.)

Actually, AA did this, when the former Reno Air operation was in T3, and the rest of AA's operation was in T4. I once got bumped off an LAS-ORD non-stop and rerouted via LAX. Despite the assurance that the bus would come by every few minutes, I would up walking from T3 to T4 and never saw the shuttle bus.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-07 09:28:24 and read 18259 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 125):
I dont think TOL but I do think GRR could get CLT plus DCA. Your first point is weighed against the cost of the flight too. 50 seat RJs from DFW to SC, GA are not efficient. Unless there is lots of local traffic tp DFW, (which there very well may be), those routes would be candidates for cuts. This is exactly why UA dropped CID-IAH. Route the traffic thru ORD or DEN rather then a long thin RJ route to IAH.

I agree, but pretty much every point that AA serves from DFW to the Southeast has enough O&D to make it work. Had AA still been serving FAY or AGS, I would totally agree that it makes no sense to serve those from DFW when they can be served from CLT since the local market is small. Places like GSO, TYS, CAE, CHS, etc. all have significant O&D to DFW where they can be served at least daily. Places like CHA or MGM may lose DFW service.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-07 09:37:48 and read 18166 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season.
Here are the destinations.
LHR
MAN
MAD
MXP
CDG

Plus BCN and ZRH, and during the summer FCO and DUB.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I don't know you can simply move US' PHL flts to JFK (AMS, DUB, VCE, etc) and just expect that they will thrive.
Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
My point is that yes AA can probably adjust JFK and add some additional markets but PHL has a relatively strong European network that the combined carrier should leverage.

I wholeheartedly agree. You can't move US' PHL hub to JFK and make it work - no way. PHL is a viable hub - no question about it. I was simply stating that in my view there are several markets (again, specifically: FRA, GLA and TLV, and possibly even DME) that could work at JFK post-merger in addition to, not in replacement of, the existing US hub at PHL.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 110):
Network optimization means you do less overflying of your hubs, not more. If anything longer haul RJ flights from DFW to cities in the SE will be cut in favor of CLT unless those routes have lots of local DFW traffic or lots of traffic to cities not served from CLT. I can use your argument against DFW as well. Saying that DFW will lose flights to ICT, OKC and TUL and that traffic will go to CLT instead. Makes no sense.

Agree, although net-net I suspect network optimization is going to mean far more rationalization in CLT than DFW.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 111):
Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.

My prediction is that AA and US would consolidate in the current US side of B. With some creative scheduling and reconfiguration, I suspect the combined operation could all fit over there.

Quoting panamair (Reply 123):
AA has 18 75Ls (configured for international premium flying) and to date, they have been underutilizing them for their intended missions...many of them end up on domestic and Caribbean runs (I was just on one the other day between JFK and SXM, for example); I don't think the number of frames is a reason for not starting more JFK-Europe flights...

I believe it's 20 now, not 18. And I think post-merge AA could easily use those 20 to operate the existing AA routes that really need those jets (out of JFK and MIA), but also to replace the longhaul 757 flying US currently does to Europe, since AA's 757s offer a better product than the US longhaul 757s, anyway.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 128):
I agree, but pretty much every point that AA serves from DFW to the Southeast has enough O&D to make it work. Had AA still been serving FAY or AGS, I would totally agree that it makes no sense to serve those from DFW when they can be served from CLT since the local market is small. Places like GSO, TYS, CAE, CHS, etc. all have significant O&D to DFW where they can be served at least daily. Places like CHA or MGM may lose DFW service.

  

I doubt DFW would lose service to any of the major southeast markets like the ones you listed - GSO, TYS, CAE, CHS, SAV, etc. All of those markets are big enough to support flying to both DFW and CLT. I could, however, see some of those markets losing some frequency in favor of larger, 2-class RJs.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: apodino
Posted 2013-02-07 10:04:37 and read 17702 times.

I think comparisons between PHX and either CVG or STL are apples to oranges. There are several other factors in play in PHX. One is that PHX is the 11th largest O and D market in the country. There is more O and D in PHX than there is PHL, CLT, DCA (and that includes IAD as well). People have always said the secret to a good hub is a combination of both O and D and connecting traffic. PHX provides that O and D. Also note that with AA, the AAdvantage program will give FF's a lot more options with a bigger network than Dividend Miles ever could, and a bigger network than WN. By comparison, PVD is a bigger O and D market than CVG, so its not hard to see why DL left CVG. Here is a link to a thread with a chart showing the stats, this is from 2009.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=176627

Of course what blows that up is the fact that LAS is a bigger O and D rlmarket than PHX and US blew that up too. Bottom line though is that no one on A.Net really has any clue how profitable PHX is because the yields are not public information. So it is pure speculation to say that PHX is not high yielding. Certainly its no ORD or DCA or LGA, but is it as low as say MCO or LAS? That may be a stretch. Plus PHX is growing at the moment as well. That bodes well.

One thing I did find interesting is that AA already has hubs in the four biggest O and D markets in the country. Had US kept LAS in tact, the merger would have given them the top five.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-07 10:26:27 and read 17383 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
I think comparisons between PHX and either CVG or STL are apples to oranges.

Yes and no. Obviously every market is different, but on the flip side some of the issues that hurt CVG and STL would also hurt PHX if a merger takes place.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
One is that PHX is the 11th largest O and D market in the country. There is more O and D in PHX than there is PHL, CLT, DCA (and that includes IAD as well). People have always said the secret to a good hub is a combination of both O and D and connecting traffic. PHX provides that O and D.

True, PHX is a large O&D market, but a large portion of that O&D is PHX-destined, seasonal, and leisure. That in and of itself is not really the ideal traffic upon which to build a hub, at least not at the cost levels a new AA would be operating at.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
Also note that with AA, the AAdvantage program will give FF's a lot more options with a bigger network than Dividend Miles ever could, and a bigger network than WN.

That's true. AADV and the far broader scope of AA's network - both branded and partner - will definitely have a positive halo effect. Enough of a positive effect to spare PHX substantial reductions in flights and capacity? I doubt it.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: futureorthopod
Posted 2013-02-07 11:04:07 and read 16811 times.

wow...so now will airfares skyrocket?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rangercarp
Posted 2013-02-07 11:25:24 and read 16507 times.

Quoting futureorthopod (Reply 132):
wow...so now will airfares skyrocket?

I do not know if I would use the term skyrocket, but fares are most certainly going up.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: IndustryInsider
Posted 2013-02-07 11:38:58 and read 16301 times.

Point2point, I'd like to correct one of your statements/questions:

Quoting point2point (Reply 109):
I'm thinking along the lines of probably a smallish detail..... but would the current AA-B6 code share maybe continue if there were a merger?

AA and B6 do NOT have a codeshare agreement in place today.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-02-07 11:41:27 and read 16314 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 26):
If this happens, US wouldn't join; US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

Actually, there is a chance it will be like the CO/UA merger, or the TWA/AA merger, in which the airline to die switched into the surviving airline's alliance before the merger finalized.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: apodino
Posted 2013-02-07 11:45:56 and read 16273 times.

Since AA still uses the Sabre Reservations system...how much do you think Doug Parker is shooting himself now for using SHARES instead of Sabre after the US/HP merger? And will the combined carrier go back to Sabre or use SHARES? Personally, since the existing QIK interface can be used with Sabre, and given UA's problems with SHARES, I think Sabre is a no brainer. But I am not DP either.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-07 11:45:58 and read 16221 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 129):

If markets in the SE can support CR7s to DFW, they will stay.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-07 11:48:20 and read 16219 times.

Quoting panamair (Reply 123):
AA has 18 75Ls (configured for international premium flying) and to date, they have been underutilizing them for their intended missions...many of them end up on domestic and Caribbean runs (I was just on one the other day between JFK and SXM, for example); I don't think the number of frames is a reason for not starting more JFK-Europe flights...

Twenty. AA converted two more for some reason last year. Only ten frames are actively used on long-haul.

BOSCDG - 1

MIAUIO -2
MIABSB - 1
MIAASU - .6
MIASSA - .7
MIAREC - .7

JFKCDG - 1
JFKDUB - 1
JFKMAD - 1
JFKMAN - 1

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-02-07 11:54:42 and read 16048 times.

Has there been any actual confirmation from official dudes?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: airtechy
Posted 2013-02-07 11:55:35 and read 16111 times.

How is AA going to square away the problem of not being able to fly into TLV. I think US does. Will they just pony up the bucks and solve the problem?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-07 12:15:32 and read 15803 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 25):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

If you cut capacity/flights at PHL, where will they go? Maybe a handful of connections to ORD, and maybe an even smaller handful of international flights to JFK. That would be a heck of a lot less than a third.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 28):
WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

AA would only be cutting connecting capacity. There would still be plenty of flights to effectively compete with WN on an O&D basis.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 31):
AA may have the lead in passengers at LAX, but they aren't that big, maybe 160 flights counting regional. I don't see LCC management adding a lot to LAX when they could have tried a LAX focus city.

LAX can not be an effective omnidirectional superhub just as JFK cannot. They are and will continue to be megafocus cities with a minimum of connecting flights.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 33):
Where is all that traffic going to go? In to the ether? CLT will doubtless get smaller, but STL is down something like 90 percent from its peak.

Exactly. There was an effective alternate to STL. There is not to CLT.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 34):
Uh, I'd hardly call JFK and ORD AA fortresses. DFW and MIA yes but certainly not the first two

ORD will get stronger postmerger. JFK could never be a fortress due to the limitations, natural and artificial that are imposed upon it.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 35):
Even MSP took a big hit after the merger; and that's the type of hit CLT will take - still large and relevant, but nonetheless a shrunken hub.

MSP took a very small hit. It's still mainly a domestic hub with a very strong O&D base.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 38):
Labor issues will be complicated especially with US/HP not even fully integrated since the merger in 2005.

On the contrary I think labor issues will be resolved rather quickly.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 43):
Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

US having massive labor problems is a gross exaggeration.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 69):
Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now.
Quoting deltairlines (Reply 69):
Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Number of flights, yes, but PHX will have larger gauge of aircraft whereas CVG is heavily regional. PHX is simply a much larger market. Even CVG is overserved when you look at market size.

Quoting coairman (Reply 75):
I would love to see a AA-US merger hub optimization internal merger document. I bet CLT and PHX are hit the hardest. I think AA's MIA hub will hurt CLT as far as route duplication. PHX will shrink at the benefit of LAX and DFW.

PHX sure. CLT and MIA have very little route duplication. Some Caribbean traffic.

Quoting wn676 (Reply 91):
WN captures a better local traffic ratio and that has been the case for years. It believe it's in the range of 65/35 local to connecting with US having basically the opposite,

They have a better ratio because they don't connect nearly the percentage of passengers that the network carriers do. US and WN have been neck and neck in actual O&D capture in PHX for years.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):
What US could do, post merger, is paint the planes in the US livery, replacing US Airways with American, but keep the new AA striped tail.

I think if anything, any change would be small. Perhaps add the US flag logo after the American name on the side, or maybe even just on the sides of the engines.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):
And, would Parker take out the first class cabins on the 773s and the trans-con A321s. After all, US doesn't have any 3-class cabins. US has managed to do well without the finicky corporate types and celebrities. So, why does the combined AA/US need those passengers.

I think with the higher labor costs incoming, the new AA would need that revenue base.

Quoting point2point (Reply 109):
I'm thinking along the lines of probably a smallish detail..... but would the current AA-B6 code share maybe continue if there were a merger? Would the new AA need to continue with B6 here?

No. In fact with that new East Coast network, AA could try to squeeze B6.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
Of course what blows that up is the fact that LAS is a bigger O and D rlmarket than PHX and US blew that up too.

LAS was more suitable for a redeye hub than PHX and it really was only operated to utilize aircraft. After the merger there were far more profitable routes to use those planes on so LAS got the axe. There is also a lot more competition at LAS than at PHX, where US and WN are basically the whole show.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Maverick623
Posted 2013-02-07 12:45:16 and read 15333 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 25):
I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Interesting. So the 3 hubs that made record profits are going to be axed, in favor of hubs that lose a billion dollars a quarter?

Just when you think you've heard it all...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-07 12:54:27 and read 15217 times.

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 142):
Interesting. So the 3 hubs that made record profits are going to be axed, in favor of hubs that lose a billion dollars a quarter?

First, AA's hubs aren't losing a billion per quarter. Second, US hubs - and indeed the entire US network - is as profitable as it is today because of US' uniquely low costs (particularly labor). Those are gone day 1 of the merger.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ER757
Posted 2013-02-07 13:33:58 and read 14594 times.

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 90):
The new AA livery and branding will stay. It MIGHT be tweaked, but I doubt it.

   From the moment I first saw it, I thought to myself that the livery was done with a US merger in mind. Sorry to all of you who hope the tail will go away. You'll have to learn to live with it. That's my   

As to the question about US' A350's, I agree with the person who thinks they'll get swapped for NEO's - too small a sub-fleet to keep on order with all the 787 firm and options that AA has.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-07 13:44:48 and read 14354 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 138):
Only ten frames are actively used on long-haul.

ORD-MAN going back to daily 2/13/13 from 5x per week, too.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-07 14:08:30 and read 14012 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 141):
Number of flights, yes, but PHX will have larger gauge of aircraft whereas CVG is heavily regional. PHX is simply a much larger market. Even CVG is overserved when you look at market size.

I agree with this. Part of it will be the need to maintain more diligent CASM controls against Southwest, part of it will be customer preference (why take an RJ over a 737?) and part of it simply the way the networks work in that part of the country - a larger percentage of cities within 2.5 hours of cities can support mainline service than out East, where the population is more dense, but also has more airports to choose from.

Post-merger, I can still see A319s/A320s going to every destination that gets mainline service still; it'll just be 3-4 a day rather than 5-6. The fact that as it stands 70% of the US operation at PHX is still mainline helps it a lot there. Keep in mind that only about 18% of the operation is 50-seaters as well...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-07 14:19:00 and read 13905 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 145):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 138):
Only ten frames are actively used on long-haul.

ORD-MAN going back to daily 2/13/13 from 5x per week, too.

I was looking at the summer 13 schedule. ORDMAN becomes a 763 again shortly.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-07 14:33:51 and read 13712 times.

I dont understand the doom and gloom talk surround PHL nor CLT. Both of these hubs would be very good assets for AA/US.

CLT fills the role in the Southeast and has decent international demand given its realatively small metro area size. Comparing it to DFW or MIA simply isnt accurate. They dont fill the same roles nor would they for the combined airline. That said, is there a need for a 650 flight operation at CLT? Absolutely not. 400 flights a day, however, would be about the right size. CLT would keep the major Caribbean destinations (MBJ, CUN, AUA, STT, SJU, etc.) while losing the smaller ones along with GIG. CLT would have flights to LHR and FRA year round and probably CDG and MAD seasonally. I also dont see CLT losing service to any domestic destinations although there probably would be some frequency decreases.

PHL fills the role in the northeast. Lets face it, AA needs an answer to EWR. PHL isnt NYC and its never going to be, but for a connecting hub, PHL grabs the traffic ORD is too far west to have and that JFK/LGA cant really use. I dont see the point of downsizing PHL at all. The only thing I will say is that we could see some smaller European destinations (ATH, GLA, and LIS) either shifted to JFK or eliminated. Ive heard from reliable sources that PHL-TLV is a very good preformer and if AA can stay in Israel, it would be dumb to mess with it. I also see PHL-NRT being a viable JL or AA route. PHL-Asia could easily fill a 2-class 777 profitably. There is enough local traffic plus connections.

DCA is self explanitory. US and DL completed the slot swap and now US has a very strong footing at DCA. No one with a brain would touch that.

PHX is the big loser in this equation. Yes the market is large, but its terribly low yielding. I dont agree with the comparrisons to STL or PIT, but I can see PHX being similar in size to DL's SLC hub. I see 175-225 flights a day with about 1/3 being mainline. BA would be the link from the hub to Europe and PHX would maintain mainline flights to the major cities on the coasts and RJs to the cities in the Midwest and Southwest. I dont see PHX-Asia ever happening. Although the big loser in Phoenix isnt the airport, but the local economy when they start sending jobs left and right to Fort Worth.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 138):
Twenty. AA converted two more for some reason last year. Only ten frames are actively used on long-haul.

I would imagine DFW-LIM will join that group.

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 142):
Interesting. So the 3 hubs that made record profits are going to be axed, in favor of hubs that lose a billion dollars a quarter?

Thats oversimplifying way too much. Youre talking about two airlines with two entirely different cost structures. Remember, US already went through Chapter 11 previously in order to get its costs in line to where those hubs could be profitable. Simply put, the amount of high yielding traffic (both international and domestic) is much higher at AA's hubs than US'.

See my first paragraph. Im not one who says they will just shut out US' hub structure. That would be dumb because US has some great network assetts. I will say, however, that should this merger happen, PHX's best days are behind them.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-07 15:26:59 and read 13032 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 148):
PHX is the big loser in this equation. Yes the market is large, but its terribly low yielding. I dont agree with the comparrisons to STL or PIT, but I can see PHX being similar in size to DL's SLC hub.

I have to go along with this general line of thinking. The only thing PHX brings to the party that I can see is a hub within the west that isn't affected by weather the same way ORD and DFW can be. There've been times, not often, but at times, when both ORD and DFW were hit by weather closures at the same time.

Other than that, I don't really see the utility in PHX as a connection point. From the PNW, it adds 100-150 miles to destinations in the NE over the same connection at DFW. As an intermountain west connection point, it's too far out of the way from the main population centers to work efficiently. Even US' service to Hawaii can easily be handled at LAX and DFW.

As part of a combined AA/US, the strategic importance of PHX escapes me.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-07 15:43:32 and read 12837 times.

ABC World News with Diane Sawyer just reported on the possible merger.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2013-02-07 16:08:21 and read 12581 times.

Can anyone post the number of gates & slots the combined AA/US will have at LGA? Also in comparison to DL?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-07 16:11:10 and read 12685 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 151):
Can anyone post the number of gates & slots the combined AA/US will have at LGA? Also in comparison to DL?

Gate/Slots
AA 15/100ish
US 6/60

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: panam330
Posted 2013-02-07 16:36:25 and read 12582 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 56):
   A shell that is still one of the largest hubs in the U.S.

When UA operates 757s or A320s on the same routes that AA offers a whopping one-class, 50-seat ERJ, it's not the same as it used to be. AA operated mainline on routes from PVD to SLC - now it's a very Eagle-heavy hub, with some fairly large stations having been cut. It's most definitely smaller by nearly every metric.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-07 16:43:00 and read 12554 times.

Quoting panam330 (Reply 153):
When UA operates 757s or A320s on the same routes that AA offers a whopping one-class, 50-seat ERJ, it's not the same as it used to be. AA operated mainline on routes from PVD to SLC - now it's a very Eagle-heavy hub, with some fairly large stations having been cut. It's most definitely smaller by nearly every metric.

Doesn't change the fact it's one of the largest U.S. hub operations.

And want to guess what airline has cut the most flying from O'Hare in the past 12 years? Here's a hint: it's not American Airlines.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-07 17:00:06 and read 12437 times.

Quoting panam330 (Reply 153):
When UA operates 757s or A320s on the same routes that AA offers a whopping one-class, 50-seat ERJ, it's not the same as it used to be. AA operated mainline on routes from PVD to SLC - now it's a very Eagle-heavy hub, with some fairly large stations having been cut. It's most definitely smaller by nearly every metric.

That's a big oversimplification. UA has cut a ton of mainline capacity from ORD, and big business stations like DFW, ATL, MSP, CLT, RDU etc. are served on plenty of CRJ's and E-Jets. UA has also benefitted largely from having a greater supply of smaller-seating a/c to access thinner markets from ORD, whereas AA/MQ has not had that flexibility. That will change a lot when the E-170s arrive this summer.

For the record, whenever I fly out to SLC for work, its virtually ALL RJ's on AA, UA and DL. That's more a reflection on US carriers practicing capacity guidance and less so on how the hub is performing.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-02-07 17:19:23 and read 12346 times.

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 90):

If it is tweaked, and I sincerely hope it is, I want them to put stars on the flag. AMERICAN Airlines should have the accurate AMERICAN Flag.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-02-07 17:43:15 and read 12236 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 148):
Simply put, the amount of high yielding traffic (both international and domestic) is much higher at AA's hubs than US'.

Totally agree that AA's network has more wealthy people on it. But, airline yields are not only about how many wealthy people live in the city. It's about who your competition is at the airport.

So, what is the _yield_ of AA at JFK and LGA, versus, say.. US at PHL... "JFK is higher" is what the average person would say.... but I am almost certain that's wrong.

[Edited 2013-02-07 17:45:23]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-07 17:52:52 and read 12171 times.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 156):
Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 90):


If it is tweaked, and I sincerely hope it is, I want them to put stars on the flag. AMERICAN Airlines should have the accurate AMERICAN Flag.

I couldnt agree with you more.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-07 18:03:07 and read 12224 times.

Ok guy for the 2000000000th time- PHX is NOTHING like the conditions in CVG and MEM !!!!!!

PHX will not end up like the conditions that MEM and CVG are in. All of the people I've talked to here have said that, although many jobs are going to be lost here administratively, there will still be many flights operating out of here. This city has too much of a draw for any of that to go away. This is not some desolate wasteland!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-07 18:32:25 and read 12056 times.

Updated list of heritage airlines that would eventually end up as American Airlines post-merger:

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
Trump Shuttle
TWA
US Airways

I'd completely forgotten about the Trump Shuttle.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-07 21:01:02 and read 11720 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 129):
Quoting ckfred (Reply 111):Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.My prediction is that AA and US would consolidate in the current US side of B. With some creative scheduling and reconfiguration, I suspect the combined operation could all fit over there.

I looked at the layout of Terminal B. I think it would make sense to keep the old Eagle gates (22-26, IIRC), since they would be at the end of the new walkway connecting the two sides. They could either be RJ gates, or they could reconfigure them with 3 mainline gates.

But, can you park widebodies at the US side? I think AA still has some 763s flying to Europe, if I'm not mistaken.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-07 21:13:07 and read 11705 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 161):
I looked at the layout of Terminal B. I think it would make sense to keep the old Eagle gates (22-26, IIRC), since they would be at the end of the new walkway connecting the two sides.

I suppose, although I still am not sure if "new AA" would need that space. I think AA+US today - as-is - could probably fit into the US side of B. That being said, though, UA today as-si is not going to need the entire AA side of B, either, so there will no doubt be a few gates on that side that will be used for Spirit, Virgin, etc.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 161):
But, can you park widebodies at the US side? I think AA still has some 763s flying to Europe, if I'm not mistaken.

Don't believe so. The last scheduled AA 767 routes out of BOS were LHR, CDG and LAX. LHR and CDG both transitioned to 757s long ago, and LHR is now ending. LAX hasn't seen a 767 in a year or so either, if I'm not mistaken. That's not to say 767s may not come back at some point, and of course there are always likely to be substitutions or diversions, but I doubt it would be all that much. Again - with some creative scheduling and/or reconfiguration, I'm sure they could make it work.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: wn676
Posted 2013-02-07 21:43:29 and read 11570 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 159):
This is not some desolate wasteland!

I don't think anyone was saying that it is. But now that you bring it up, you have wonder what the future holds for the valley when leaders here continue to bet on real estate and service industries to hold the local economy together. Until there's an established culture of innovation and big business here (not just a token presence by a handful of large corporations) I think that will always be the case. Obviously things have really progressed over the last two decades - I've been here experiencing it - but there's still a long way to go. The metro area could grow by 2 million people tomorrow, but if it was just more subdivisions and shopping centers, we would still be in the same place as we are today.

But back to the hub argument. This is the important part: looking at the bigger picture of a combined US/AA network and the purpose PHX serves for US currently, it really makes you question the viability of PHX as a connecting hub. Between DFW and LAX, there aren't that many flows that PHX can serve uniquely because of its geography, and it's not like this city has a huge international draw either. Unless a combined AA/US can compete effectively for local traffic, which is unlikely due to their assumed higher relative costs and to the lower ticket yields that PHX produces, there's bound to be some reductions. They're still going to carry a sizable portion of it, but the majority of the reductions would be the optimization of connecting flows over the hub. You'd still have a huge (and likely increased) presence from WN, which has entrenched itself as the O&D leader here. They are currently the best positioned to handle local traffic, and it shows. Can the US PHX hub survive in a slightly reduced form? Probably, but when we hit another trough in the economy, it'll probably be first on the list of marginally producing things to cut.

Again, don't just jump to the conclusion that nobody knows how big the metro area is here and that they're all writing off PHX as a bunch of poor desert hicks living in tumbleweed huts, clinging to their concealed weapons while insisting that MLK day is not a valid holiday. Ok, maybe the last part...BUT there are many valid reasons why people are coming to this conclusion, which is based primarily on two things: geography and local economics.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-08 17:55:34 and read 10625 times.

Quoting wn676 (Reply 163):
This is the important part: looking at the bigger picture of a combined US/AA network and the purpose PHX serves for US currently, it really makes you question the viability of PHX as a connecting hub.

  


There is a big difference between the ability of PHX to support a large hub for an airline versus the necessity of keeping PHX as a hub for AA under the combined AA/US network. This is a fact that some are unwilling to accept or understand.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: GSPSPOT
Posted 2013-02-08 18:47:58 and read 10485 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 50):
It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.
HOW?? CLT is a vital Southeastern connecting hub. MIA, while technically in the Southeast is at the furthest corner of that region, and NOT a good connecting point for cities in the rest of that region. Its value lies in its location between the "East Coast" and the Caribbean & Latin America. My FF partner prefers conecting via CLT over most any other Southeastern hub.

And, as much as I LOVE DFW, it is NOT a good connecting point for travel within the Southeast. AA needs the CLT hub to maintain a viable presence in that region.... PERIOD.

[Edited 2013-02-08 18:50:01]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: piedmont727
Posted 2013-02-08 19:16:23 and read 10381 times.

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 6):

1 horton sed if they merge it wont change and 2 its really not bad in person just wait

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ltbewr
Posted 2013-02-08 19:47:47 and read 10292 times.

Of course, the big issue is that this will mean fewer choices in travel, as this causes more concentration of airline services, especially in the USA. WIth now AA/US impending merger and those of recent years, (CO/UA and DL/NW) were now have not 6, but only 3 legacy airlines left in the USA, 4 if you count WN. These 4 with their connections partners, (ie: AA Eagle) will now control 80% of the seats in domestic USA market and the ability to raise fares. That will help the airlines, as less competition for fares will result, clearly hurt the consumer.
As much as I and many others would not like to see this merger for what it wil do to consumers and workers, the current reality of costs of running an airline and the lack of any respect for anti-trust laws, means little probable objection to it being approved.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-08 19:54:32 and read 10265 times.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 167):

There is almost no chance of the DOJ and DOT standing in the way. The precedent has been set.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-08 19:56:59 and read 10312 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 168):
There is almost no chance of the DOJ and DOT standing in the way. The precedent has been set.

There's a rumor that the Arizona attorney general may step in and file an anti-trust lawsuit should US/AA do the stupidest move ever and cut the PHX hub out.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-08 20:37:35 and read 10213 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 169):
There's a rumor that the Arizona attorney general may step in and file an anti-trust lawsuit should US/AA do the stupidest move ever and cut the PHX hub out.

Well that's ridiculous, on multiple accounts. Cutting the PHX hub the "stupidest move ever." Ha - that's a good one. A state Attorney General suing two entities on antitrust grounds on the basis of something that hasn't even happened yet? Hmmm ...

I realize the State of Arizona stands to lose a great deal from this merger, but I highly doubt any elected official in the state is that stupid. This will cost them votes in the next election, but not as many as shooting off their mouth and making promises they simply cannot keep. Don't you think the lawyers working this deal out have surely already ensured that nothing even remotely "trust-like" or collusive has occurred, particularly with something as politically sensitive as hub closures?

No, the Arizona Attorney General will just have to find something else to run on next time. Doug Parker and Tom Horton are sure to say all the right things - just as the other airline CEOs before them did - about how there are no plans to cut any of the hubs. And then, 2-3 years later, they'll do whatever makes sense - economically, not politically.

[Edited 2013-02-08 20:39:32]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 20:41:39 and read 10170 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 169):
the Arizona attorney general may step in and file an anti-trust lawsuit

How would a reduction of flights at Sky Harbor by US or AA be anti-competitive? Any other airline would be free to introduce service to fill any voids.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mplsjefe
Posted 2013-02-08 21:00:17 and read 10119 times.

Quoting blueflyer (Thread starter):

It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

Actually "network optimization" has helped MSP. MSP is a much larger metro area (+1 million more population) than CLT and has more O&D traffic and is a much better connecting hub. CLT is a star in the US 3+ network hub system, but as it gets integrated into the new AA network don't be surprised if it shrinks some...

Since the merger, MSP now also has service from AF to CDG on top of DLs, more frequency and/or capacity on all trans Atlantic flights and likely will soon get direct service to ICN on KE, on top of the NRT service on DL. We do see less saabs and RJs here, but if you look at pax moved we are close, if not equal, to DTW and have more mainline metal. The icing on the cake is that MSP is a cash cow for DL, I don't foresee any major cuts coming anytime soon. DL scored getting MSP and DTW in the merger, which is why SLC is mostly an RJ hub and CVG is almost no longer a "hub." MEM is basically gone, but that isn't a shocker with its proximity to ATL.

The only "cut" I can appreciate recently is the loss of our 774 service to NRT, now we have the 77L. Love the 77L, but miss the queen of the skies...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 21:10:27 and read 10116 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 170):
I realize the State of Arizona stands to lose a great deal from this merger, but I highly doubt any elected official in the state is that stupid.

Oh I dunno, he might be!   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Horne#Controversies

I don't think this guy has to worry about votes in the next election, LOL

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-08 21:35:27 and read 10085 times.

Here's my problem. Doug Parker has been trying to grow HP since the day he took over. First, he bought US. Then, he tried to buy DL. Now, he's going after AA.

This reminds me of Steve Wolf's career. He worked at AA and wanted to move into a senior executive position. Bob Crandall told Wolf that he didn't see Wolf moving much beyond VP-Western Division.

Wolf's whole career was trying to prove that he was better than just VP-Western Division of AA, including senior positions at Flying Tigers, Republic, United, and US Airways.

It would be interesting to know if Paker left AA for NW, because NW made an offer he couldn't refuse, or if he felt that his career at AA stalled out, and he needed to move on.

I just get the feeling that Parker has one heck of an ego, which has driven the HP/US merger, the attempted merger with DL, and now the potential merger with AA.

It's one thing to enter into a merger, because there is a sound business case. I know that some people felt that AA bought Air Cal, Reno Air, and TWA, just to get rid of competition. I can argue that there were sound business reasons for each merger, at the time they were proposed. In the cases of QQ and TW, they were just good opportunities to buy both carriers for reasonable prices. I don't think any of those mergers were done, because Bob Crandall and Don Carty felt they needed to run a larger carrier.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: antoniemey
Posted 2013-02-09 00:16:12 and read 9873 times.

Quoting airtechy (Reply 140):
How is AA going to square away the problem of not being able to fly into TLV. I think US does. Will they just pony up the bucks and solve the problem?

If I understand correctly, the issue has something to do with TWA pensions that AA bailed on when it brought on TWA employees?

It MIGHT be something that could be solved by US being the acquiring carrier, in which case, no big deal. If not, they may just have to pay... or come to a settlement to pay less. Or, they could decide the route isn't worth it.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 144):
From the moment I first saw it, I thought to myself that the livery was done with a US merger in mind.

It wasn't.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 156):
If it is tweaked, and I sincerely hope it is, I want them to put stars on the flag.

That would be better. Just removing the white stripes from the blue would be better...

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2013-02-09 05:44:15 and read 9630 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 170):
but I highly doubt any elected official in the state is that stupid.

I wouldn't bet upon it. The bar has been set pretty low in Arizona.

Quoting mplsjefe (Reply 172):
CLT is a star in the US 3+ network hub system, but as it gets integrated into the new AA network don't be surprised if it shrinks some...

CLT might shrink a bit - but it is going to be a strong hub for a post merger AA. Likely some flights from DFW, ORD and MIA to cities in Alabama, Georgia, north Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennesse will disappear to now be flown out of CLT.

The DFW-SAV ERJ I used to take will not likely be DFW-CLT-SAV. Hopefully the DFW-CLT will be mainline.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PIEAvantiP180
Posted 2013-02-09 07:07:14 and read 9679 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 100):
. JFK I see changing somewhat - lots of peak-time slots there are today being used for 1-per-day connections to international flights. Those I see being replaced with more longhaul (international and transcon) flights catering to the huge local NYC O&D market

You still need connections from those places like CVG, BWI, TPA, MCO, and the rest to support the international flights. Yes NYC is huge O&D market but it still needs connecting traffic to fill flights, without those connections a lot of international flying would not be profitable. That's why we see the large feed traffic in EWR for UA and JFK for AA and DL. Simply put AA can't cut feed to JFK and expect to profitably expand internationally, if they could AA, DL, and UA would already had done it.

Quoting commavia (Reply 106):
I didn't say AA exits NYC-Florida. I simply said AA could let DL and B6 fight over it. AA can maintain a token presence in the main NYC-Florida markets (MCO, TPA and MIA/somewhere in South Florida). But AA doesn't need to spend resources fighting DL and B6 for market share on JFK-TPA. Let them have it.

AA is already letting DL and B6 fight it out for the NYC-Florida traffic, outside of JFK, LGA, EWR-MIA AA is already at a token presence. TPA, MCO, and FLL are only served once or twice daily and that's the extent of their NYC-Florida network. Sure they can cut MCO and FLL to once daily but they don't gain any slots from the cuts since both flights are in the off peak times at 7 in the morning. As you can see AA is already in the position that you are thinking they should be in and anything less would be them completely abandoning NYC-Florida outside MIA. Yes you can get to FLL, PBI from MIA but why bother when there are plenty of cheap options from HPN, JFK, LGA, EWR, to those two airports.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season. Here are the destinations. LHRMANMADMXPCDGI know LHR is a huge market but the number of destinations is rather underwhelming. I don't know you can simply move US' PHL flts to JFK (AMS, DUB, VCE, etc) and just expect that they will thrive. Why hasn't AA started them in the past? PHL doesn't have nearly as much O&D as JFK but they cover the gap with a rather strong connection point that JFK currently does not have. My point is that yes AA can probably adjust JFK and add some additional markets but PHL has a relatively strong European network that the combined carrier should leverage.

   spot on.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-09 07:09:47 and read 9709 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 176):
The DFW-SAV ERJ I used to take will not likely be DFW-CLT-SAV. Hopefully the DFW-CLT will be mainline.

I doubt it. DFW-SAV is a 130 passenger a day market.

Markets that would be more likely to be ended from DFW in favor or just CLT service would be CHA, MGM, and maybe TLH. Had AVL, AGS, and FAY still been around, I would have also said they would be targets for CLT consolidation.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-02-09 08:17:37 and read 9561 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 174):
I just get the feeling that Parker has one heck of an ego, which has driven the HP/US merger, the attempted merger with DL, and now the potential merger with AA.

No question DP (and others) want to have their ego stoked as a big time airline CEO. Which DP already is... But yes, he wants to go down as a "great" man of the airline biz.

Still, that desire is not a full definition of Parker and Kirby. Their record of the last 10 years (in business) is a very positive one. In the least glamorous possible way, they made an airline work well and throw off profits.

The record does suggest they know how to run an airline as a business. And without merging with US Air, where would HP be today? Maybe it was ego, or maybe he was that smart.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: jfklganyc
Posted 2013-02-09 08:38:15 and read 9529 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 169):
There's a rumor that the Arizona attorney general may step in and file an anti-trust lawsuit should US/AA do the stupidest move ever and cut the PHX hub out.

Funny to see this from pro business, ant government, red state Arizona.

Bigger better farther faster for business...oh wait, PHX may be dehubbed??? Stop!! Anti trust

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-09 10:13:24 and read 9415 times.

Quoting PIEAvantiP180 (Reply 177):
You still need connections from those places like CVG, BWI, TPA, MCO, and the rest to support the international flights. Yes NYC is huge O&D market but it still needs connecting traffic to fill flights, without those connections a lot of international flying would not be profitable.

Yes. The JFK-Europe schedule does still require connections, but it doesn't need all of those smaller, once-per-day markets. As the network is optimized and rebalanced, connections over JFK could be minimized to supplement the local traffic, and JFK connections could be focused on larger markets that (1) already have JFK service, (2) tend to be more premium, and/or (3) have lots of O&D to Europe - places like the major transcons (LAX/SFO/SEA/SAN/LAS), BOS/DCA, etc.

Quoting PIEAvantiP180 (Reply 177):
AA is already letting DL and B6 fight it out for the NYC-Florida traffic, outside of JFK, LGA, EWR-MIA AA is already at a token presence. TPA, MCO, and FLL are only served once or twice daily and that's the extent of their NYC-Florida network. Sure they can cut MCO and FLL to once daily but they don't gain any slots from the cuts since both flights are in the off peak times at 7 in the morning. As you can see AA is already in the position that you are thinking they should be in and anything less would be them completely abandoning NYC-Florida outside MIA.

Yes - exactly. AA already is essentially in that state now. Contrary to how another poster interpreted my post, I was never suggesting AA cut its NYC-Florida capacity. Where AA is now in the NYC-Florida market is probably sufficiently large and yet sufficiently small. B6 and DL, on the other hand, each have very substantial capacity tied up in the NYC-Florida market, and I was simply suggesting that AA need not fight them for it.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-09 10:40:05 and read 9314 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 169):
There's a rumor that the Arizona attorney general may step in and file an anti-trust lawsuit should US/AA do the stupidest move ever and cut the PHX hub out.

And how is there anti-trust should US reduce the PHX hub?

Here is the current destination list for US out of PHX with commentary (this is assuming US completely makes PHX a spoke, which it won't):

ABQ - Southwest isn't going away here.
ANC - Long, thin route that relies on connections. Plenty of viable options via SEA/PDX/SLC/SFO
ATL - Delta and Southwest/AirTran aren't going away
AUS - Southwest isn't going away
BFL - Thin RJ route that relies on connections. No big miss
BOI - Southwest likely stays and expands
BOS - JetBlue isn't dropping this
BUR - Southwest isn't going away
BWI - Southwest isn't going away
CLT - This route will stay in any merger
CMH - Southwest likely stays and maybe adds a flight
CUN - Southwest/AirTran will be flying this eventually
DCA - Due to perimeter slots and US keeping a large operation at DCA, this route isn't going anywhere
DEN - Bloodbath already with WN, UA and F9 also on this
DFW - No comment needed.
DRO - Thin RJ route that relies on connections. No big miss.
DSM - Likely goes away due to it being long and thin; WN could come in and add a daily 737.
DTW - Delta and Southwest aren't going away
ELP - Southwest isn't going away
EWR - United and Southwest aren't going away
FAT - Thin-ish RJ route. Not a huge miss.
FLG - Route relies on connections given it's a 2 hour drive or so down I-17.
FLL - Southwest isn't going away and likely adds a flight
GDL - Possible Aeromexico route. Still good connections over DFW/IAH
GEG - Southwest isn't going away
GJT - See DRO/BFL
HMO - Aeromexico already flies this
HNL - HA already flies this and likely upgauges
IAH - United isn't going away (and WN has flights to HOU)
IND - Southwest isn't going away
JFK - Delta and JetBlue aren't dropping this
KOA - I'd say this is gone and flowed over LAX
LAS - Southwest has a shuttle here
LAX - This route gets expanded in a merger
LGB - Can't see anyone coming into replace this, but it's extra capacity into SoCal; LAX and SNA are not that far
LIH - See KOA
MCI - Southwest isn't going away
MCO - Southwest isn't going away
MEX - Wouldn't be shocked if Aeromexico launched this
MKE - Southwest isn't going away
MRY - See BFL/DRO/GJT. AA has this to LAX so not gone from the network anyway.
MSP - Delta/Southwest aren't going away
MZT - Wouldn't be shocked if this became a WN market post-FL integration
OAK - Southwest isn't going away
OGG - Would expect HA to start this on a less-than-daily 767 basis
OMA - Southwest isn't going away
ONT - Southwest isn't going away (I'm just going to start copy and pasting this)
ORD - American, United and Southwest aren't going anywhere
PDX - Alaska and Southwest aren't going away
PHL - this stays in any circumstance
PIT - Southwest isn't going away
PSP - Likely a large amount of connections on this, can't see anyone replacing this
PVR - again, a likely WN/FL post-integration
RNO - Southwest isn't going away
SAN -Southwest isn't going away
SAT - Southwest isn't going away
SBA - Similar to MRY, especially as it has LAX service on AA
SBP - Like BFL/DRO/GJT; AA used to fly here not to long ago from LAX
SEA - Alaska/Southwest isn't going away
SFO - United/Southwest aren't going away
SJC - Southwest isn't going away
SJD - WN/FL post-integration likely
SJO - can't see this one staying around
SLC - Delta/Southwest aren't going anywhere
SMF - Southwest isn't going away
SNA - Southwest isn't going away
STL - Southwest isn't going away
TPA - Southwest isn't going away
TUS - complete flow market.
YEG - Might go year-round on WS; plenty of winter service on WS
YUM - complete flow market
YVR - Could see Air Canada go year round here
YYC - WS serves this year-round
ZIH - Maybe an FL/WN post integration market
ZLO - Maybe an FL/WN post integration market

Overall, the common trend here is nearly all cities would keep some sort of service once all the dust settles. Given that PHX wouldn't be seeing cuts for another 18 months or so, you'd likely see WN/FL much further along. And this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO where US makes it a complete spoke - which it won't.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-09 10:47:51 and read 9337 times.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 182):
Overall, the common trend here is nearly all cities would keep some sort of service once all the dust settles. Given that PHX wouldn't be seeing cuts for another 18 months or so, you'd likely see WN/FL much further along. And this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO where US makes it a complete spoke - which it won't.

  

No mattter what happens, PHX will continue to be an airline hub - it will just be one for Southwest, not necessarily AA. But as you rightly point out, PHX will no doubt continue to have frequent, nonstop air service to virtually all the major cities around the U.S. And I think AA is unlikely to turn PHX into purely a spoke, but instead is most likely to retain nonstop flights (albeit less of them, and in many cases on smaller planes) to the major local O&D markets where business travelers are at least somewhat more likely (SAN, SFO, SEA, BOS, DEN, and on and on).

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-09 11:22:25 and read 9242 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 183):
And I think AA is unlikely to turn PHX into purely a spoke, but instead is most likely to retain nonstop flights (albeit less of them, and in many cases on smaller planes) to the major local O&D markets where business travelers are at least somewhat more likely (SAN, SFO, SEA, BOS, DEN, and on and on).

Agreed. As I said in a thread somewhere on this site, AA offers a lot to the business traveler that Southwest doesn't - a first class cabin, lounges, a global network, a much better frequent flyer program, etc. The goal of the new merged carrier in PHX will be to cater to this crowd and not so much the family wanting to take the kids to California for the weekend to see the Mouse.

They'll have to compete somewhat on pricing with WN since they'll be in these markets, but through inventory management should be able to control the amount of dirt-cheap fares out there.

I doubt you see a ton of cities dropped (the ones that jump out to me are DRO, GJT going to DFW; ELP wouldn't shock me, nor would BFL, SBP and MRY); it'd just be going from 5-6 directional banks each day down to 3-4. Flights to cities such as SFO/LAX/SNA/SAN/LAS where there are currently 7-8 flights a day likely go down to 5; still sufficient for business traffic; cities in that 5-6 likely get 3-4, 3 flights a day likely go to 1-2 (depending on if they're already in the AA network or if they could work in the AA network) with the 1-2x/days being likely candidates to be dropped out of PHX.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: panam330
Posted 2013-02-09 13:32:41 and read 9056 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 154):
Doesn't change the fact it's one of the largest U.S. hub operations.

And the sky is blue and grass is green. I never said it wasn't, so you're just arguing with yourself there. I said AA's ORD operation has shrunk to a shell of its former self, by nearly every metric. When you slash stations and aircraft gauges, a hub doesn't grow unless you backfill the capacity elsewhere, which at ORD, American has not yet done. Will it change with the E75? Yes. It's no secret that AA has needed an F100-sized replacement.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: GSPSPOT
Posted 2013-02-09 13:41:03 and read 9060 times.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 184):
As I said in a thread somewhere on this site, AA offers a lot to the business traveler that Southwest doesn't - a first class cabin, lounges, a global network, a much better frequent flyer program, etc.

While that is factual, there are a shocking (at least to me when I figured it out) number of business people who fly WN. Check out the WN forum on Flyertalk. Main reasons that I've been able to determine are (usually) frequent flights, free checked baggage and very reasonable policies for changing tickets when one's plans change, without having to necessarily be a FF elite.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-09 13:43:08 and read 9054 times.

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 186):
While that is factual, there are a shocking (at least to me when I figured it out) number of business people who fly WN. Check out the WN forum on Flyertalk. Main reasons that I've been able to determine are (usually) frequent flights, free checked baggage and very reasonable policies for changing tickets when one's plans change, without having to necessarily be a FF elite.

Also, some people prefer not to leave the US so the global network is a moot point to them.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-09 15:07:04 and read 8934 times.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 182):

I get your point but you do realize a lot of people out here don't want to fly WN. Those people like the mainliners because of the opportunities they offer here, and better on-board service.

I've heard some really bad Customer service stories which would raise eyebrows about WN, but even though I do like them, they would not provide a good service to PHX. There would have to be someone else, a mainliner or someone, to come in here and fill the void left by US/AA should a merger take place and should the hub get slashed off the books.

Which, as I've stated many times, would be a very stupid decision to do. A waste of a large market.

[Edited 2013-02-09 15:08:52]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2013-02-09 15:15:47 and read 8919 times.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 180):
Funny to see this from pro business, ant government, red state Arizona.

When it is about moving local jobs out of state, cutting payroll - there are no red or blue states, no pro-business, no anti-government politicians.

All politics is local - and local people having jobs is the biggest concern of any politican, of any party.

I can guarantee you if they were talking about moving the HQ to PHX and de-hubbing DFW - Rick Perry, John Cornyn and Ted Cruz would all be saying the same thing about suits and stopping the merger.

[Edited 2013-02-09 15:17:28]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: deltairlines
Posted 2013-02-09 15:57:30 and read 8860 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 188):
I get your point but you do realize a lot of people out here don't want to fly WN. Those people like the mainliners because of the opportunities they offer here, and better on-board service.

I've heard some really bad Customer service stories which would raise eyebrows about WN, but even though I do like them, they would not provide a good service to PHX. There would have to be someone else, a mainliner or someone, to come in here and fill the void left by US/AA should a merger take place and should the hub get slashed off the books.

Which, as I've stated many times, would be a very stupid decision to do. A waste of a large market.

Trust me, I'm a former (in the very recent past) resident of Scottsdale.

Yes, some people don't want to fly Southwest. I was one of them when Iived out there! That being said, is there enough of those people to support a 300 flight a day hub when Southwest has 170 flights of their own on mainline metal? I have my doubts - it's a lot of extra seats to fill.

Quite frankly, some (maybe a lot!) of those people mean very little to the airline. I could be a person wanting my $49 one-ways to SoCal and the benefits of mainline service. I'm probably not the person a more business-oriented airline wants - they might be able to tell that passenger that they can deal with Southwest, or they can deal with six hours on Interstate 10.

As I've said, I don't think US Airways guts Phoenix completely. Doing a quick and dirty analysis on US DOT O&D data, I can easily see the combined carrier maintaining about 160-180 flights/day (down 80 or so), with about 125-135 of these flights being on mainline. The only cities that could lose service (on the merged carrier) under this would be:

Anchorage - about 20 pax/day on the local for US Airways (about 16% local). Not a great location for flow traffic to Alaska geographically. Might be able to serve seasonally.
Bakersfield - about 27 pax/day on the local (about 15% local). Only reason it would stay is they can't get space at LAX to run this flight or they are happy with the amount of connections that would be available.
Durango - about 24 pax/day on the local (about 23% local). AA has this to Dallas as it stands. I think that would stay.
Des Moines - about 59 pax/day on the local (about 34% local). Not unhealthy numbers here, but still heavily reliant on flow and ORD and DFW are convenient hubs here. I could see this staying as a 1x/day CR9 but that would be it. Also depends on if WN enters the market.
El Paso - about 22 pax/day on the local (about 7% local). Way too low on the local here, which isn't shocking given WN has better service in this short market. I think Eagle already has ELP-LAX which would fit better.
Flagstaff - about 5 local pax/day. This is strictly a flow market. This one stays if it fits into the network profitably (had the Dash 8s still been in play, I'd lean toward stay); I still could see this one staying at about 3x/CRJ.
Ft. Lauderdale - a tough one since it's very seasonal. I could see this market being a once/day mainline in the busier winter/spring periods when it's about 120 pax/day, but going away during late Spring until around Thanksgiving when the numbers drop off by 50%.
Guadalajara - about 32 pax/day. This can be served better over Dallas.
Grand Junction - about 33 pax/day. Eagle has this over Dallas. The only way this might stay is the fact that it's a Mesa base, in which case they might fly 2x/CRJ on it.
Hermosillo - numbers have improved significantly now that it's a CRJ on the flight so it's a competitive service against Aeromexico. Yields maintained as well. I'd say this sticks - for now. Close to the chopping block though if numbers drop.
Kona - about 20 pax/day. Easier to route over Los Angeles
Lihue - about 25 pax/day. Basically the same story as Kona.
Monterey CA - about 27 pax/day (about 25% local). Eagle serves this over LAX, so I think that would be the winner here.
Mazatlan - about 15 local pax/day. Heavily reliant on flow. Seems dicey, but can't really route this over DFW. Might stick around as a weekend service, with AS codeshares for weekdays.
Palm Springs - about 22 local pax/day. American has mainline to Dallas. I see this being a route where DFW wins out.
San Luis Obispo - about 32 local pax/day (22% local). I'd say this depends on if they can get room in at LAX for it; if they can, I'd expect this route to switch there.
San Jose (CR) - about 10 pax/day. Only way this one sticks is as a seasonal Saturday only during peak season when the numbers jump up. Dallas can handle the bulk of this though.
Tampa - very similar story to FLL. Could see this going seasonal.
Tuscon - about 7 pax/day, plenty of DFW/LAX service on AA. Maybe a couple of RJs up to PHX, but nothing like the shuttle right now.
Yuma - about 5 pax/day. Basically the same story as Flagstaff.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-10 11:37:17 and read 8264 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 187):
Also, some people prefer not to leave the US so the global network is a moot point to them.

It's not a question of preferring not to leave the US. The question for me is when I need to go to JAX or SAT or CHI, whether I want to mess around with surly staff, regional aircraft and a connection or whether I want to be treated like a human being and have a nonstop flight on a 737. Of course, I don't fly WN to CRW, NRT or YXU, but, like most business travelers, I take a lot of trips to places other than those.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-02-10 18:56:24 and read 7944 times.

Well, if that news article is correct...... tomorrow might be the big day!

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-10 19:01:36 and read 7890 times.

Which article are you referring to? Do you mean the one that the thread starter posted?

I would imagine that we likely wont hear anything official before Tuesday but the 15th has also been rumored as well.....

[Edited 2013-02-10 19:03:40]

[Edited 2013-02-10 19:04:13]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: moose135
Posted 2013-02-10 20:44:37 and read 7791 times.

The Associated Press is reporting that there may be a delay...

Quote:
The boards of American Airlines parent AMR Corp. and US Airways have pushed back meetings to consider final plans for their merger, Associated Press sources say.

A source close to the matter said Sunday that the AMR board wants to meet in person, and that the US Airways board would only meet after the AMR board approves a deal. The source requested anonymity because the talks are private.

Read more: http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/region...cording-to-ap-source#ixzz2KYw2cnWb

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-10 20:51:12 and read 7760 times.

I just saw this on the 9pm news. I was actually expecting no earlier than Tuesday if the BOD's were not set to meet until Monday. The NDA does not expire until the 15th so they have a little bit of room to play with.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-11 08:13:11 and read 7371 times.

I read an intersting article in the Wall Street Journal, on the day the news broke that a merger deal was close. Apparently, the lead attorney for the Creditor's Committee has been pushing AA to accept a deal with US.

AA has maintained that standing alone is the better alternative, and the creditors are buying it. It's also been the creditors who pushed APA to accept the second tentative agreement offered last year.

The attorney went so far as to meet with pilots at a residence in San Diego to push for ratification of the T/A, and to get them on board with trying to get MOUs with US and its unions.

What I don't get is the fact that the creditors of AA will wind up iwth 72% of the combined carrier. If I'm a US shareholder with a large position, I'm hating this deal. Yes, AA is bigger than US is just about every measure, but you can't argue that AA is three times larger than US.

Further, I wouldn't be thrilled with the idea of merging with US, based on the track record fo the HP-US merger. That went poorly, and I just don't think Parker is going to go from what UA-CO did, to what DL-NW did.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: sccutler
Posted 2013-02-11 12:33:33 and read 6979 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 196):

What I don't get is the fact that the creditors of AA will wind up iwth 72% of the combined carrier. If I'm a US shareholder with a large position, I'm hating this deal. Yes, AA is bigger than US is just about every measure, but you can't argue that AA is three times larger than US.

Fred - good observation, but you tag what I think is a sound reason in your next paragraph. The value of the respective elements in any combination is not just based upon the "stuff plus the cash" - it involves a heavy dose of the goodwill and enterprise value, and on this basis, I think most would agree that AA is a vastly (OK, "substantially") more valuable carrier - business - than US Airways, and perhaps worth a premium multiple, based upon its stronger market positioning, its future prospects and its relatively-good prospects for labor relations (yes, I wrote that on purpose).

Quoting ckfred (Reply 196):


Further, I wouldn't be thrilled with the idea of merging with US, based on the track record fo the HP-US merger. That went poorly, and I just don't think Parker is going to go from what UA-CO did, to what DL-NW did.

...and this is why I think the ultimate valuation of the respective stakeholders (creditors for AA, shareholders for US) is skewed more than many might expect in AA stakeholders' favor. US has done well... considering... and that "considering" is a big 'un. Notably, they've done well, considering the fact that in a meaningful way, they still operate as two separate carriers.

US has a lot more to gain from a combination with AA, than AA has to gain from a combination with US. Fact is, the AA Creditors can drive a very strong bargain here, and they should (as is their right and their obligation); US management will do almost anything to make this happen. Just watch. And again remember - US is not buying AA, here.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-11 12:49:49 and read 6923 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 196):
What I don't get is the fact that the creditors of AA will wind up iwth 72% of the combined carrier.

What percentage do you think is a fair valuation? Keep in mind that US is valued at $2.4 billion. AA, depending on sources, is valued around $8 billion (I've recently seen estimates ranging from $7.5 billion to $9 billion). If we use $8 billion, then the AA portion would represent around 77% or about 5% greater than what the WSJ is reporting.

[Edited 2013-02-11 13:08:20]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AirDance
Posted 2013-02-11 12:51:25 and read 6979 times.

If you enter http://www.usairwaysamerican.com it redirects the URL to http://www.newamericanarriving.com , though nothing shows up on the page. After doing a WHOIS domain search, it shows that American Airlines owns the domain. Looks like a done deal aye?

[Edited 2013-02-11 12:53:38]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AirDance
Posted 2013-02-11 12:54:29 and read 6919 times.

If you enter http://www.usairwaysamerican.com it redirects the URL to http://www.newamericanarriving.com , though nothing shows up on the page. After doing a WHOIS domain search, it shows that American Airlines owns the domain. Looks like a done deal aye?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: silentbob
Posted 2013-02-11 12:55:23 and read 6917 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 196):
Further, I wouldn't be thrilled with the idea of merging with US, based on the track record fo the HP-US merger. That went poorly, and I just don't think Parker is going to go from what UA-CO did, to what DL-NW did.

Parker did a great job with the HP-US merger. The only issue was a seniority battle caused by one of the pilot unions acting like spoiled children when they didn't get everything they demanded in the arbitration. This time around, there is legislation in place to force a resolution and the sheer size of the APA will render them the CBA for the combined pilot group without a vote. There is already an agreement in place with the APA as to how things will proceed once they are declared the CBA. In other words, the "i"s are dotted and the "t"s are crossed before the merger has even been announced.

That said, I do think there will be a speed bump or two in the process, but I don't think will prevent the company from realizing the financial benefits of the merger. It sure hasn't hurt US over the last couple years.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: web500sjc
Posted 2013-02-11 12:59:34 and read 7081 times.

Quoting AirDance (Reply 199):

At newamericanarriving.com I got asked for a username and password....

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: AirDance
Posted 2013-02-11 13:07:31 and read 7034 times.

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 202):
At newamericanarriving.com I got asked for a username and password....

I entered the URL in, without redirecting from usairwaysamerican.com, and the same thing showed up for me too. I imagine it is for those internally who are putting the merger website together.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: BD338
Posted 2013-02-11 13:46:00 and read 6902 times.

Quoting AirDance (Reply 199):
If you enter http://www.usairwaysamerican.com it redirects the URL to http://www.newamericanarriving.com , though nothing shows up on the page. After doing a WHOIS domain search, it shows that American Airlines owns the domain. Looks like a done deal aye?

Looks like they are planning in case the deal does go through, doubt it indicates it is a done deal. Nothing worse in todays connected world if a website wasn't available on or shortly after the news release. If the deal falls through, then not a lot of wasted effort.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: moose135
Posted 2013-02-11 14:20:17 and read 6699 times.

Quoting BD338 (Reply 204):
Looks like they are planning in case the deal does go through, doubt it indicates it is a done deal.

No doubt. They may very well have purchased any number of likely domain names to hold in reserve just in case.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-11 14:27:27 and read 6701 times.

Quoting moose135 (Reply 205):

Quoting BD338 (Reply 204):
Looks like they are planning in case the deal does go through, doubt it indicates it is a done deal.

No doubt. They may very well have purchased any number of likely domain names to hold in reserve just in case.

Shortly after US indicated an interest in AA after AA filed for Chapter 11, US purchased a bunch of domain names in anticipation of an AA/US merger such as oneworldoneairline.com.

But I think the merger may be a reality because of the username and password required for newamericanarriving.com, which is often the case for some websites before they go live.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-11 21:09:28 and read 6263 times.

Quoting sccutler (Reply 197):
US has a lot more to gain from a combination with AA, than AA has to gain from a combination with US. Fact is, the AA Creditors can drive a very strong bargain here, and they should (as is their right and their obligation); US management will do almost anything to make this happen. Just watch. And again remember - US is not buying AA, here.

There is an old saying in finance, real estate, and the legal profession. Sometimes, the best deal is the one you don't do. While a deal structured to the advantage of AA can be good for the creditors in the long run, how will this affect US shareholders? It seems to me that Parker & Co. are so willing to do a deal, that their shareholders might not do so well in the long run.

Quoting EricR (Reply 198):
What percentage do you think is a fair valuation? Keep in mind that US is valued at $2.4 billion. AA, depending on sources, is valued around $8 billion (I've recently seen estimates ranging from $7.5 billion to $9 billion). If we use $8 billion, then the AA portion would represent around 77% or about 5% greater than what the WSJ is reporting.

I think AA is being horribly overvalued. Airlines that have come out of bankruptcy tend to see some significant decline in stock prices after going public. This is similar to what happened to the price of Facebook, after it went public.

The management team does a great job on the road show, talking up the stock, and getting large investors (hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and brokerage houses) to buy large positions. Then, the typical investor yawns, and the price starts down.

IIRC correctly, UA stock went down a fair amount, after the initial listing on the NASDAQ. I would expect that the Street would decide within a few weeks that AMR/AA/Eagle is worth more like $5 billion to $6 billion.

I personally think that AMR/AA is worth more by itself, then when combined with US. There will be problems in combining reservation systems and created uniform procedures. Combining the work forces won't be as easy as the various unions and Parker think it will be. If Parker decides not to implement all of the product upgrades that Horton has pushed, you will have passengers fleeing to UA and DL.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-11 21:31:19 and read 6184 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 207):

I personally think that AMR/AA is worth more by itself, then when combined with US. There will be problems in combining reservation systems and created uniform procedures. Combining the work forces won't be as easy as the various unions and Parker think it will be. If Parker decides not to implement all of the product upgrades that Horton has pushed, you will have passengers fleeing to UA and DL.

I'd have to agree here about AMR/AA valuation being worth more now that they finishing BK. Especially since the contracts AA negotiated with their unions during BK and US's existing contracts are all supposed to be supplanted by "new" contracts that will likely eliminate many of the cost savings for AA employees and give significant bumps and payouts to US employees.

I don't think there will much of a problem with reservations (as long as they migrate over to AA's system).

Uniform procedures are going to be a big problem as long as they are forced to keep employee groups separated and flying out of their respective "hubs" without cross over opportunities.

Elimination of product upgrades would be a disaster after all the new branding and advertising American has done over the last year and a half promoting these enhancements and as you mentioned will result in a migration to other carriers.

Finally, AAdvantage members are going to be in for a BIG shock if Parker tries to implement US award levels during a merger! A max of 325,000 miles for a RT business class seat to Europe? WTH!!

[Edited 2013-02-11 21:31:41]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-12 15:29:06 and read 5596 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 196):
What I don't get is the fact that the creditors of AA will wind up iwth 72% of the combined carrier. If I'm a US shareholder with a large position, I'm hating this deal.



Well, below is one person's perspective that this deal has decent upside for US shareholders.


It looks like the breakdown in ownership of the new merger airline will be AMR creditors owning 72% and LCC shareholders owning the remaining 28%. Using the $11 billion valuation, this would mean that LCC shareholders stake in the new company would be $3.08 billion. Currently, LCC has a market cap of just $2.3 billion. These numbers indicate that LCC shares have significant upside if a deal is indeed announced..


I am not saying that the investor's viewpoint in the article is correct or not, but just sharing a different viewpoint. However, if you are going to play this thing out, you may want to consider his approach of purchasing options as opposed to buying the LCC stock outright.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1175...irways-shares-surging?source=yahoo

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-02-12 16:02:39 and read 5441 times.

Looks like we may be going to a thread part 2 if something doesn't happen in the next few days.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: PIEAvantiP180
Posted 2013-02-12 16:12:42 and read 5424 times.

Here is a different perspective on the same subject.
Of course this article is purely based from the investor side of view.

Don't Expect to Profit From an AMR-US Airways Merger

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-from-an-amr-us-airways-merge.aspx

" Valuation If one wanted to invest in the American-US Airways merger, the natural way to do so would be to buy US Airways stock. Shares have recently been trading near $15. At that price, based on a diluted share count of around 200 million (which may be too low – the diluted share count was 205 million last quarter), US Airways is worth $3 billion. Based on its 28% ownership in the merged carrier, the "new American" would need to be valued at $10.7 billion for current US Airways shareholders to break even. By contrast, Delta is the most valuable U.S. airline, with a market cap of $12.3 billion, whereas United is only worth $8.4 billion.

Certainly, $10.7 billion would be a "stretched" valuation for a merged American-US Airways. The "new American's" situation would be much closer to that of United than that of Delta. Delta has already completed its merger with Northwest, and has been showing industry-leading unit revenue growth over the past two years. By contrast, United Continental's lower valuation accurately reflects the costs and risks of merger integration.

US Airways could choose to repurchase its convertible notes with cash (this would require $500 million-$600 million) in order to reduce the diluted share count. This would permit shareholders to break even at a lower market cap (perhaps as low as $9 billion for the combined entity). However, that would create its own set of risks. Due to the costs of merger integration, it is prudent to enter the process with a very strong cash position; United Continental had over $9 billion of cash and investments when it closed its merger on Oct. 1, 2010."

[Edited 2013-02-12 16:16:57]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-02-12 16:42:26 and read 5336 times.

Looks like I spoke too soon. In the following article, dated today (2/12), it says that BOTH boards will be meeting TOMORROW! (2/13)
http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...-boards-to-meet-this-week/1912183/

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-13 10:54:16 and read 4590 times.

If someone thinks I'm crazy, feel free to say so. It seems to me that the better idea would be for AA to come out of bankruptcy, then try to buy US. All of the agreements about future contract changes are between AA's unions, US's unions, and US. So, if AA buys US, AA employees stick with the current contract. I know there has been discussions that the proposed contracts that US and AA's unions have worked out will increase AA's labor costs, basically wiping out the cost savings that AA got from its new labor agreements.

I don't know if US pay is lower than AA pay under the contracts that were ratifiied last year. Assuming US employees do make less, then just migrating to AA's pay scale would be an improvement.

If AA is the acquiring carrier, then the logical assumption is that the product improvements announced during bankruptcy will stay, and that mileage for redemptions and elite status on the combine F/F program will also be in line with AAdvantage rather than Dividend Miles.

About the only loser in this scenerio is Doug Parker, since he would have the diminished role, while Horton would be in charge.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: JoePatroni707
Posted 2013-02-13 11:48:57 and read 4415 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):
If someone thinks I'm crazy, feel free to say so. It seems to me that the better idea would be for AA to come out of bankruptcy, then try to buy US. All of the agreements about future contract changes are between AA's unions, US's unions, and US. So, if AA buys US, AA employees stick with the current contract. I know there has been discussions that the proposed contracts that US and AA's unions have worked out will increase AA's labor costs, basically wiping out the cost savings that AA got from its new labor agreements.

I don't know if US pay is lower than AA pay under the contracts that were ratifiied last year. Assuming US employees do make less, then just migrating to AA's pay scale would be an improvement.

If AA is the acquiring carrier, then the logical assumption is that the product improvements announced during bankruptcy will stay, and that mileage for redemptions and elite status on the combine F/F program will also be in line with AAdvantage rather than Dividend Miles.

About the only loser in this scenerio is Doug Parker, since he would have the diminished role, while Horton would be in charge.

Agreed 100%, however it will not play out that way. Doug Parker will be in control, I am terrified that he will bring AA down to US level of service. AA had better products all around.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-13 11:58:52 and read 4352 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):
It seems to me that the better idea would be for AA to come out of bankruptcy, then try to buy US.

AA could try, but I don't think they would succeed. At this point I think it's a show of pride. If this deal falls through, I see AA moving in an entire different direction - maybe courting B6 or maybe something way outside the box like HA (instant Pacific/Asia network) and shunning US. On the other side of the deal, Parker would simply convince his board that US was fine on its own and that they were all better off without being bought out. And then look for someone else to buy out.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):
About the only loser in this scenerio is Doug Parker, since he would have the diminished role, while Horton would be in charge.

Well, no, Parker stands to get a huge payout even if he loses personal control. He is just in line for a bigger one if he retains it. I think if push came to shove, he would take a share of the credit for the deal getting done, take his settlement money which is in the millions, and then go look for a job as CEO of another smaller airline to try to start the game over again.

Quoting JoePatroni707 (Reply 214):
Doug Parker will be in control, I am terrified that he will bring AA down to US level of service. AA had better products all around.

Better product, but was losing money pre-bankruptcy. Time will tell if the product stays the same after the new contracts take effect at AA. Parker might have a huge ego but he's no idiot - he knows what makes money, and AA's strengths have always been product and brand. Cutting service would be incredibly counterproductive and counterintuitive.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Mainland
Posted 2013-02-13 12:21:11 and read 4235 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 212):
Looks like I spoke too soon. In the following article, dated today (2/12), it says that BOTH boards will be meeting TOMORROW! (2/13)

This appears to be confirmed via Bloomberg. Announcement possible very soon.

AMR, US Airways Said to Agree on Terms for Merger
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-to-agree-on-terms-for-merger.html

Quote:
The board of bankrupt American Airlines parent AMR Corp. is meeting now to vote on a merger with US Airways Group Inc. after the two sides reached a tentative agreement that would create the world’s largest carrier, people familiar with the matter said.

The accord probably will go to US Airways’ board later today once AMR directors vote, said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks are private. Details of the proposal weren’t immediately disclosed.

Board approval would clear the way for an announcement tomorrow, the timetable drafted earlier this week as the two sides worked toward a final agreement, people familiar with the matter have said.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-13 12:32:32 and read 4182 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 215):
Better product, but was losing money pre-bankruptcy.

My greatest fear is that this highly oversimplified logic - mistaking correlation for causality - will drive the management team of a merged airline to make some stupid, stupid decisions.

AA's losses before bankruptcy were not because it had "too good" a product - on the contrary, part of the problem was that AA was unable to invest in its product as its post-bankruptcy peers were doing. AA's biggest challenge pre-bankruptcy - by far - was union contracts that had both driven uneconomically high costs and hamstrung the ability's ability to generate revenue.

I pray Doug Parker does not misread history, as doing so would destroy all the positive of this merger.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 215):
Parker might have a huge ego but he's no idiot - he knows what makes money, and AA's strengths have always been product and brand. Cutting service would be incredibly counterproductive and counterintuitive.

Again, I so pray that you are right.

I am bullish on so much about this merger - and have been from the outset. The network I think will be incredibly dynamic, the fleet integration will be somewhat involved but should work well, and the unions all generally seem to be on board (although the predominating AA unions will for the most part probably railroad through whatever they want anyway).

But if Parker starts messing with the goose that lays the golden egg, as Jeff Smisek has tried to do, he will soon find that it will destroy all of the vaunted "value" and "synergies" he has sold everyone on, and based all of his various promises to various stakeholders upon.

Based on what he did with his last merger, I am concerned. The way in which the cheap, low-quality HP product was imposed on US is disconcerting to say the least, and of course that was an imposition upon an airline far smaller, and far less global, than AA. Some say he was just being practical and working with what he had - a still-small, structurally disadvantaged carrier that couldn't afford such luxuries, and that now he has the chance to go up-market.

I sincerely hope so.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-02-13 12:56:39 and read 4104 times.

"US sources have told us that the announcement of the AA/USAir merger will be tomorrow (14 FEB), mid-morning, in Dallas."

http://twitter.com/airwaysmagazine/status/301796594959933440

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: silentbob
Posted 2013-02-13 13:06:22 and read 3996 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):

If someone thinks I'm crazy, feel free to say so. It seems to me that the better idea would be for AA to come out of bankruptcy, then try to buy US. All of the agreements about future contract changes are between AA's unions, US's unions, and US. So, if AA buys US, AA employees stick with the current contract. I know there has been discussions that the proposed contracts that US and AA's unions have worked out will increase AA's labor costs, basically wiping out the cost savings that AA got from its new labor agreements.

You're crazy. The cost of buying US would be a huge burden, that's why having this happen in bankruptcy makes the most sense. Wiping out the cost savings of employee pay cuts shouldn't be seen as a bad thing. Those folks shouldn't be getting screwed simply so executives and investors can make more money.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: texan
Posted 2013-02-13 13:07:14 and read 4033 times.

From the Dallas Morning News:

Quote:
The plan is to announce the deal in the pre-dawn hours Thursday, followed by a 7:30 a.m. CST call with the analyst community, a Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport press conference in mid-morning, a 1 p.m. Dallas/Fort Worth Airport presentation to AA employees, with the video and audio broadcast to other locations.
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...us-airways-merger-wrapped-up.html/

Texan

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-02-13 13:10:16 and read 3964 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 217):
The way in which the cheap, low-quality HP product was imposed on US is disconcerting to say the least,

The HP philosophy saved US Airways and now, is leading to helm of largest airline in the world. It does not win a.net popularity contests. But Wall St and creditors are looking for a team to run AA like a business. It is supposed to make money first and foremost. Not be a great airline for its own sake, for the pleasure of the staff or for a.net.

I'm optimistic. Do not want to hear F/As hawk credit cards on New AA. Predict the market position will be above US. However, it will be leaner and meaner than AA. That's why Doug and Scott got the job. Keep the good parts of AA DNA, but make it run like US. AA's management tone will largely be a goner.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-13 13:21:56 and read 3910 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
The HP philosophy saved US Airways and now, is leading to helm of largest airline in the world

That is highly debatable. I'm guessing there are plenty of US Airways employees who would argue that union stupidity and Parker's fully taking advantage of such stupidity has had far more to do with "saving" anything - most of all the he combined airline tons of money - than the "HP philosophy." The "HP philosophy" was imposed - to limited success - on the larger USAirways five years ago, but doing so for much larger, much more global, and much more premium AA today would be an unmitigated disaster.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
It does not win a.net popularity contests

I'm not talking about winning A.net popularity contests. I'm talking about winning premium customers. AA has consistently proven itself quite adept at doing that. Indeed, that is the thing Parker most desperately needs out of this merger.

I'll make my point very clearly: if Parker tries to do now what he did 5-6 years ago, he will drive away AA's most valuable and profitable customers and destroy the entire economic logic of this merger.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
But Wall St and creditors are looking for a team to run AA like a business

AA's prior management team was also running AA like a business - including producing positive operating cash flow, actively contributing to defined benefit pension funds, and honoring contractual obligations (specifically union collective bargaining agreements) long after they were no longer competitive. And they managed to stave off bankruptcy for nearly a decade beyond some of its largest competitors. I call that running a business.

But, alas, in hindsight it appears that the "running AA like a business" that would have been more fruitful in the long run would have been to file for bankruptcy, and screw everyone, sooner. Sad, but the reality of the world we live in.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
It is supposed to make money first and foremost. Not be a great airline for its own sake, for the pleasure of the staff or for a.net.

Again - obviously. My point is that Parker has literally zero chance of "making money" if he tries to do at AA what he did 5 years ago at USAirways.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
Keep the good parts of AA DNA, but make it run like US

Let's hope so. Because the "good parts of AA DNA" are AA's vastly larger and deeper experience internationally, with alliances and joint ventures, and with premium products and services (including a top-notch frequent flyer program).

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
AA's management tone will largely be a goner

Well let's hope not. There is plenty of knowledge and experience among the AA management team that will be extremely valuable to a combined airline. Like with so many of these other areas - I pray that Doug Parker is not that stupid.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-13 13:38:22 and read 3775 times.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 219):
Wiping out the cost savings of employee pay cuts shouldn't be seen as a bad thing. Those folks shouldn't be getting screwed simply so executives and investors can make more money.

How does that make any sense? The whole point of airlines is to make money, AA wasn't making money because labor costs were too high. Employee costs were thus reduced so the airline could make money again...but your saying it's not a bad thing wiping out one of the main objectives needed to keep the carrier solvent and indeed retain jobs? Screwy logic if you as me.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-13 13:51:20 and read 3719 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
It is supposed to make money first and foremost. Not be a great airline for its own sake, for the pleasure of the staff or for a.net.

You will only make money if you appeal to the higher-revenue paying customers. The second you dilute your product, FFP and become an operationally unreliable carrier, that sector is lost and is excruciatingly difficult to reattain.

Ironically, in the grand scheme of things, this AA-US merger may save me from jumping from the UA ship (I was legitimately THIS close to applying for AA status match) because EVERY single one of my UA trips this year has suffered from a delay, cancellation, or inferior all around service. I'm referring to 2013 alone and in total, I have taken 10 UA flights already. Only 3 have arrived on-schedule.

Once-bitten, twice shy. I fear AA-US will suffer the same fate.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
Do not want to hear F/As hawk credit cards on New AA

Ugh i know. this is so obnoxious, especially on a red-eye flight.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-13 14:09:31 and read 3685 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 221):
Do not want to hear F/As hawk credit cards on New AA.

DL does it, too. On two different DL flights that I was on last September, the FAs were pitching Gold Delta SkyMiles American Express cards in the middle of the flight.

But up to this point, DL has also invested billions on other product improvements (with more on the way), and has made far more improvements than US did, even before the DL/NW merger (which only accelerated DL's progress). So the AmEx pitches are not that big of a deal because DL improved almost everything else.

That said, I hope the news tomorrow is positive. Here's what I think we will see in a new AA:
-AA name and new AA identity is kept (whether you like it or not), with a rapid repaint schedule a la DL/NW and accelerated airport rebranding, particularly at US hubs and US-dominant/only stations
-Doug Parker as CEO, and mostly PMUS management with some PMAA management left intact
-Headquarters in Fort Worth
-Member of oneworld, with plans for expanded codeshares and JVs with IAG, JL, LATAM, and QR (I could also see a 10% stake in the new AA taken by IAG or QR)
-Accelerated retirement of the MD-80s and non-international 757s on the PMAA side and the 737 Classics and 762s on the PMUS side
-Mixed fleet of A32x, 738, 752, 763ER, A330, and 777 - with the large PMAA Dreamliner orders, I see the PMUS A350XWB order converted to more A32x (original and NEO) to further accelerate MD-80 retirements with regular A32x frames along with some of the early ex-HP A320s with NEOs
-F and J remain at PMAA service levels, and Y gets a product that is a hybrid of AA and US (expand Main Cabin Extra and add IFE to PMUS planes, but bring the PMUS traytable ads and premium trans-Atlantic food-for-purchase option
-AAdvantage will be the FFP name, and the program will mostly be PMAA elements
-Introduction of CLT and (in some cases) PHL service to cities that US left after the PIT dehubbing, but where Eagle remains (I'm looking at you, FWA) to fend off DL's increasing ATL-heartland service
-A rapid drawdown of 50-seat RJ flying on the Eagle side with PMUS Express CR7/9s and E-Jets taking over long ERJ routes at DFW and MIA (ORD is already a given with the RAH E175 deal)
-If there are any divestitures required by the feds, some DCA slots would be divested to WN or B6 and US's three gates and ticket counter at ORD T2 to NK (which would also take the vacant ex-B6 Gate E8) for a total of four NK gates, twice that of today

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-13 14:21:37 and read 3624 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 225):
If there are any divestitures required by the feds, some DCA slots would be divested to WN or B6 and US's three gates and ticket counter at ORD T2 to NK (which would also take the vacant ex-B6 Gate E8) for a total of four NK gates, twice that of today

I think it's a pretty safe bet that the hub carrier will just absorb the other at the hubs. As usual, the more interesting gate integration questions are at big outstations (LGA, BOS, LAX) and some smaller ones where the gates are far apart (BNA, IAD, SFO, etc.).

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: alitalia744
Posted 2013-02-13 15:13:27 and read 3550 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 226):
I think it's a pretty safe bet that the hub carrier will just absorb the other at the hubs. As usual, the more interesting gate integration questions are at big outstations (LGA, BOS, LAX) and some smaller ones where the gates are far apart (BNA, IAD, SFO, etc.).

Isn't US already scheduled to leave T1 at LAX?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: flyfree727
Posted 2013-02-13 16:37:26 and read 3265 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 2):
Yea suggest the title is changed to Rumor as this is not fact

Looks like the MOD's can change it to fact tomorrow...
and ,after all the attention given the past couple of months, really, is anyone surprised?

JFKPurser.. gotta hand it to you..seems things have pretty much played out hand by hand as you predicted. Your facts thus far have come to fruition.

AA ORD

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: airliner371
Posted 2013-02-13 16:44:00 and read 3198 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 225):

I think you are on the ball with everything you state.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-13 16:44:26 and read 3189 times.

Quoting alitalia744 (Reply 227):
Isn't US already scheduled to leave T1 at LAX?

Yes, US was going to leave T1 for T3, but I guess it will be a move to T4 now. With VX slowing down growth, will someone else like G4 move into the T3 gates that US was going to take?

AA will have room at T4 for the US operation, as some AA international flights are moving to the renovated TBIT soon. And there's no need to build a replacement US Airways Club at T3 when T4 already has a huge Admirals Club.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-13 16:45:48 and read 3182 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 225):
-If there are any divestitures required by the feds, some DCA slots would be divested to WN or B6 and US's three gates and ticket counter at ORD T2 to NK (which would also take the vacant ex-B6 Gate E8) for a total of four NK gates, twice that of today

If anyone is going to take US' gates at ORD I imagine UA would want to pounce on them.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-13 16:51:57 and read 3133 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 231):
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 225):
-If there are any divestitures required by the feds, some DCA slots would be divested to WN or B6 and US's three gates and ticket counter at ORD T2 to NK (which would also take the vacant ex-B6 Gate E8) for a total of four NK gates, twice that of today

If anyone is going to take US' gates at ORD I imagine UA would want to pounce on them.

That's now how it works. You don't divest gates so an airport's largest carrier can grow larger.

Curious to see how this closes the gap at LGA and LAX. AA will still be second at LGA, although the gap narrows with DL, but I believe this will make AA the largest airlne at LAX.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-13 17:41:24 and read 2973 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 232):
Curious to see how this closes the gap at LGA and LAX. AA will still be second at LGA, although the gap narrows with DL, but I believe this will make AA the largest airlne at LAX.

  

Before any capacity rationalization, simply using pro forma 2012 (Jan-Dec) numbers from LAWA, United (including Continental and SkyWest) and American (including American Eagle and USAirways) were separated by less than 165,000 total passengers, and that was assuming that 100% of SkyWest's passenger count goes to United, which of course it doesn't (a large portion of it goes to Delta, and in fact by the end of last year part of it was flying for American, too). So, given that, this merger wil almost certainly make AA the largest single carrier at LAX with about 21% market share. I believe this will be the first time ever - or certainly at least the first time in my lifetime - that AA has ever been the largest single carrier brand at LAX.

As for LGA, without adjusting for any possible mandated slot divestitures, this will give AA control of around 31% of the total slots at the airport, second only to the 45% share held by Delta. In total for the entire New York area, this will also likely close the gap somewhat between AA and Delta/United, and widen it between AA and JetBlue. AA will still certainly not be nearly as other competitors at LGA specifically or in the region in genral, but course AA doesn't need to be. Both Delta and United rely on their New York operations in one way or another to serve as major connecting hubs - AA now will have a huge hub down I-95 in Philadelphia optimized for connections, leaving AA's huge New York presence to be better optimized to cater to the enormous local market.

The "new AA" truly is going to have a very, very impressive network - I even dare say a better network overall, strategically, than Delta's (though still inferior to United's).

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-13 17:48:23 and read 2916 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 232):
That's now how it works. You don't divest gates so an airport's largest carrier can grow larger.

I'm sure UA would love the three US gates at ORD, but I don't think the DOT and DOJ would allow UA or even DL (both T2 occupants like US) to get the US ORD gates.

NK would be the most likely - they are extremely successful at ORD, but they also have a gate shortage at ORD right now, and the three US gates plus CDA-owned E8 would double their capacity. And they are a ULCC, which is always a plus to regulators that want to boost competition at a constrained airport like ORD.

That said, if NK moves to T2's ex-US gates at ORD, I wonder who will take over the two NK gates in T3. If they can handle a widebody, I could see BA moving there alongside AA to join IB, JL, and (soon) QR; if not, it's anybody's guess.

[Edited 2013-02-13 17:51:07]

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: caliatenza
Posted 2013-02-13 17:58:12 and read 2878 times.

Mods can change it to today  : http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/13/news...erican-merger/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

"The boards of US Airways and American Airlines parent AMR agreed to a long-anticipated deal Wednesday night that could create the world's largest airline, according to a source familiar with the talks.
The official announcement is planned for early Thursday."

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Flighty
Posted 2013-02-13 18:36:24 and read 2653 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 222):
My point is that Parker has literally zero chance of "making money" if he tries to do at AA what he did 5 years ago at USAirways.

Well, I appreciate your post, but Doug and Scott made a better airline than HP or US ever previously were. And it makes money quarter upon quarter.

One thing they don't do over at US is just spend money on ego trips. If it isn't a real... cash producing... business plan, they don't do it. I'll point to Beijing. US didn't fly there. AA did. Did AA's decision make money? My educated guess is no, it loses money. But they do it. And on and on like that.

AA has a long illustrious history, though. Just in operations research and revenue management, and SABRE, their achievements were huge.

AA's tone lost me when they didn't articulate ANY business plan on behalf of their shareholders going into BK. Why would you expect them to now? They didn't before. The famous Jamie Baker quote "Is that really all you got?" said it all.

But it's a new day. Respect and good luck to both sides. They will need talents from both sides.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-13 18:41:31 and read 2636 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 233):
The "new AA" truly is going to have a very, very impressive network - I even dare say a better network overall, strategically, than Delta's (though still inferior to United's).

This leads me thinking - where else do they become the largest (excluding obvious capacity rationalzation)? Looks like AA will once again be the largest at Raleigh, for example. And it's presence at PIT will be very nice - PITLAX and PITLHR anyone?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-13 18:43:39 and read 2635 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 236):
I'll point to Beijing. US didn't fly there. AA did. Did AA's decision make money? My educated guess is no, it loses money. But they do it. And on and on like that.

Not a good example. US has neither the aircraft nor the appropriate gateway nor the Asia know-how to fly there.

AA isn't shy about dropping money-losing international routes, like DEL or DME. I'm not sure why you assume that PEK is a poor performer.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 236):
but Doug and Scott made a better airline than HP or US ever previously were.

How is charging for water "better" in any sense of the word?

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-13 18:44:31 and read 2621 times.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 236):
One thing they don't do over at US is just spend money on ego trips. If it isn't a real... cash producing... business plan, they don't do it. I'll point to Beijing. US didn't fly there. AA did. Did AA's decision make money? My educated guess is no, it loses money. But they do it. And on and on like that.

Honestly though, US even applying for the PEK slots was a joke. It's like if tomorrow B6 applied to fly FLL-CDG or some 2nd tier European city just because they want to make some type of presence in Europe even though they don't have the aircraft to fly it.

Additionally you have to value what is cash producing. US practically sells elite status which likely dilutes the ranks a bit. This may not sit well with AA EXPs. So while yes I'm sure US makes some money on it they may also loose millions from EXPs walking away. Just look at the mess over at UA.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-13 18:52:42 and read 2568 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 239):
Additionally you have to value what is cash producing. US practically sells elite status which likely dilutes the ranks a bit. This may not sit well with AA EXPs. So while yes I'm sure US makes some money on it they may also loose millions from EXPs walking away.

I think the chances of status selling continuing to the combined carrier are close to zero.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-13 18:59:38 and read 2539 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 237):
This leads me thinking - where else do they become the largest (excluding obvious capacity rationalzation)?

Is AA still largest at SJU? Though US doesn't serve SJU from many gateways, they often run a number of widebodies in there in season.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-13 19:09:59 and read 2517 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 237):
This leads me thinking - where else do they become the largest (excluding obvious capacity rationalzation)?

Yep - as I have contended for months, this combined carrier is going to be a major competitive force in lots and lots of markets, big and small. In addition to obviously being the largest single carrier in DFW metro, MIA, LAX, PHX (for now), CLT, PHL, AA will also be among the top 2-3 largest cariers (and in some cases an extremely close 2) in some of the largest and most important air markets in the U.S., including (but not limited to) CHI, NYC metro, WAS metro, BOS, SFO, HOU metro, BDL, PIT, STL, MCI, RDU, ATL and on and on.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 237):
Looks like AA will once again be the largest at Raleigh, for example. And it's presence at PIT will be very nice - PITLAX and PITLHR anyone?

I think both of those markets are entirely plausible. With the combined strength of a combined carrier, PIT-LAX - at least as a once daily A319/A320 or 737 - seems obvious. And given the strength of the JV across the Atlantic, I suspect the combined carrier could not only make PIT-LHR work with a 757, but quite possibly chase DL out of PIT-CDG.

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-13 19:17:07 and read 2479 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 242):
AA will also be among the top 2-3 largest cariers (and in some cases an extremely close 2) in some of the largest and most important air markets in the U.S., including (but not limited to) CHI, NYC metro, WAS metro, BOS, SFO, HOU metro, BDL, PIT, STL, MCI, RDU, ATL and on and on.

And if we ask a slightly different question and look at largest legacy, AA opens up a gap in quite a few places (STL, BNA, AUS, SAT, BDL, PIT, etc.)

Topic: RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-13 20:33:07 and read 2374 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 231):

If anyone is going to take US' gates at ORD I imagine UA would want to pounce on them.

A combined US/AA at ORD certainly will not be giving up any gates to anyone. As for the US gates at ORD, I think we'll eventually see AA/US taking the remaining gates in the L concourse with some of the gates being used for international departures by OW partners (AB,IB,JL,QR,BA?) and AS will stay. The others (VX,B6,NK, etc) will likely be moved over to the US gates in T2.


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