Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5678011/

Topic: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: PlaneHunter
Posted 2013-02-01 01:54:38 and read 39464 times.

Interesting statements by Cathay Pacific CEO John Slosar:

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/avd_02_01_2013_p03-01-543373.xml

I really hope the carrier will finally place a VLA order. Would be great to see both A380 and 748i in the fleet, but I guess that's unlikely...


PH

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: NZ107
Posted 2013-02-01 02:30:20 and read 39243 times.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Thread starter):
Would be great to see both A380 and 748i in the fleet, but I guess that's unlikely...

Indeed.. Especially if the fleet is only going to be around 10-20. I don't really see them needing more than 20; at least to start with. Slosar has been publicly talking about this decision for at least a month, even if it has been widely known that CX has been interested in a VLA.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-02-01 02:31:09 and read 39227 times.

I think they go for 747-8i, due to the commonality with their -8Fs, unfortunately.

Myself, I'd rather have them wait a few years and go for 777-9X. Forget ugly doubledeckers.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: na
Posted 2013-02-01 02:42:01 and read 39125 times.

Thanks for posting.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Thread starter):
I really hope the carrier will finally place a VLA order. Would be great to see both A380 and 748i in the fleet, but I guess that's unlikely...

I think LH is a great example to follow though the current school of me-too thinker smartasses in the airline fleet planning elsewhere makes it unlikely. LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
Myself, I'd rather have them wait a few years and go for 777-9X. Forget ugly doubledeckers.

Thank god they are evaluating REAL big planes. Forget hideous overstretched boring tubes. I hope a 777-9X never sees the light of day as being longer than the already disproportioned 77W it would easily be the ugliest widebody ever.
Good to read that the 787 problems might delay a decision about the 777X (and therefore likely also the possible service entry) .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-02-01 02:49:18 and read 39048 times.

Quoting na (Reply 3):
I think LH is a great example to follow though the current school of me-too thinker smartasses in the airline fleet planning elsewhere makes it unlikely. LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

So everyone who independently ran the numbers to see if the B747-8i was a good platform into the 2020s and said no is a fool except the airline of your home country? I am assuming you don't work in a discipline that demands a good business case before embarking on a multi billion dollar investment because your post is just fan-boyish. Is it so hard to show some respect to us "number crunchers"? Long hours and advanced maths seem to count for squat if it diesn't fit your favourite plane. Sorry but this sort of thing on here just bugs me as it over simplifies something that is rightly complex.

It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't. If it's the "best in the world", I wonder why they still have so many A346s. Still who needs to make money? Oh wait, Lufty do, which is why they're finally dumping short haul flying from non core assest to someone else.

[Edited 2013-02-01 02:50:37]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: na
Posted 2013-02-01 02:56:09 and read 38958 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):
So everyone who independently ran the numbers to see if the B747-8i was a good platform into the 2020s and said no is a fool except the airline of your home country? I am assuming you don't work in a discipline that demands a good business case before embarking on a multi billion dollar investment because your post is just fan-boyish. Is it so hard to show some respect to us "number crunchers"? Long hours and advanced maths seem to count for squat if it diesn't fit your favourite plane. Sorry but this sort of thing on here just bugs me as it over simplifies something that is rightly complex.

It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't.

I thoroughly think that many decisions are not ONLY based that way, they are also based on what most of the competition does and the fear of an "own way". I am not a "number cruncher", certainly not, but I have met many in my long working life and what I said is the result of my experience with them. Of cause I know decisions arent made on prettyness, stupid to think so.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-02-01 03:00:27 and read 38888 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
I think they go for 747-8i, due to the commonality with their -8Fs, unfortunately.

I don't think it necessarily works like that; sure, commonality is important, but if the aircraft isn't right for the job, no amount of commonality is going to make a difference. The A380F has died a death, at least for the time being and even if it had not, the 747-8 is still better ... as a freighter.

However, as much as I love the 747, the reality is that it's at the end of the road. The A380, as ugly as it is, is at the beginning of its road. CX has expressed an interest in the -900 and is really only now coming around to the -800 due to MTOW improvements. I just can't see CX going for the 747-8i, especially as the 777-9X, once its launched, will kill it. I do believe CX will be a -9X customer, but that's a different day's debate.

As to numbers, I think we're easily going into double figures here, given the numbers of aircraft required to sustain a daily schedule, to places like LHR, SFO, LAX, JFK and YVR.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-02-01 03:03:18 and read 38869 times.

Quoting na (Reply 5):
certainly not, but I have met many in my long working life and what I said is the result of my experience with them

It's a condescending term really, there's a huge difference between an accountant and a revenue analyst for instance.
Considering that the hard product is almost identical between the B777 and B747 and comparable to the A330/A340 across some fleets, I doubt Joe Public would notice. Most people don;t care what the aircraft type is nowadays so your argument that fleet planners just follow the crowd like lemmings over a cliff is not accurate. It is the quality of the soft and hard product that matters not the platform in which it is carried. Both BA and AA fly the B777 but BA has a better overall product (that may change with the new AA B77W). Indeed CX flies the B744 like PR but CX has a better product.

Again not the platform. There are a few people who find the B777 noisy but not enough to diminish the savings on using the twin over the quad. Business is all about numbers, knowing them, how to use them and being intelligent with them so that the main number does not become a sea of red ink. We most certainly do not count beans all day.

In this case there may be a good case for the B747-8i within Cathay as I suspect the A388 is a little big and they already operate a good sized fleet of the B747-8F. We shall see.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: TC957
Posted 2013-02-01 03:07:29 and read 38827 times.

I too think this is Boeing's to loose. They should get 748i's a couple of years sooner than A380's if need be and training and fleet intergration should be better with their 748F experience. CX will look for the ability to op non-stop to New York at max load as one important criteria I suspect.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: shankly
Posted 2013-02-01 03:59:22 and read 38470 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
It's a condescending term really, there's a huge difference between an accountant and a revenue analyst for instance.


skip. I think you are being a bit tough on na....I think he was merely inferring that LH have a good balance of aircraft for multi-roles, although to suggest it is the best in the world was a bit daft on his part

I think the reality of the world is that many airlines are suckered by the manufacturers sales teams and often end up with perhaps not the best planes that the bean counters would otherwise procure. Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

Most of the airlines that fly similar high capacity long haul routes to CX, have gone A380, so one would assume the balance of favour is with that plane. The need to get the max out of each LHR and HKG movement is also a clear driver. But Boeing need a boost in spirit and 20 748i's on the books from CX would do that.

Mr Slosar did note that "the 747-8 freighters already operating in Cathay’s fleet “are operating very well as freighters.” Well, the Il-76 operates very well as a freighter.....

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
Again not the platform


Disagree with you on this. The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-02-01 04:11:19 and read 38375 times.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
perhaps not the best planes that the bean counters would otherwise procure

Enough with "bean counters" please, we don't count beans, it makes hard working intelligent people sound like numpties. I agree that airlines are often blindsided by manufacturers sales teams but that's often very poor management who often don't understand the analysis that they are given, often because of the sheer amount of stuff that crosses their desk on a daily basis alas.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
The need to get the max out of each LHR and HKG movement is also a clear driver.

Good point but LHR has off peak too, the CX257 is an A343 sized rotation being flown by the B744 / B77W.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff

Interesting point, it has raised the game with the sheer amount of space available. Having said that, the B747-8i is no wider than the existing B747.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-01 04:26:20 and read 38226 times.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 9):
I too think this is Boeing's to loose. They should get 748i's a couple of years sooner than A380's if need be and training and fleet intergration should be better with their 748F experience.

And yet, that didn't keep SQ from ordering 747-8F and still going with A380, even topping up their orders multiple times, and explicitly ruling out any role for the 747-8i in their fleet.
Similarly, BA are wet-leasing 747-8F, but decided to go for A380 for their pax fleet.

Just goes to show that operating 747-8F doesn't necessarily make a 747-8i purchase any more likely.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2013-02-01 04:37:11 and read 38113 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
In this case there may be a good case for the B747-8i within Cathay as I suspect the A388 is a little big and they already operate a good sized fleet of the B747-8F. We shall see.

Why do you say that ?

Especially since the consensus is that CX want something bigger in both long and tubular (A350 -1000 already ordered) and fat and egg shaped (A380 -900) ?

These VLAs are certainly for a very few high density routes aren't they ?

LHR/NRT in the main -both slot constrained and where boxes are sent via alternative dedicates.

So the 388IGW might just swing it - Or could they yet be the launch customer for the 389 ?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-01 04:46:08 and read 37995 times.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Thread starter):
Interesting statements by Cathay Pacific CEO John Slosar:

Thanks for the link, PlaneHunter. Although I'm not sure if they're evaluating it "again" as it was widely speculated that they had been evaluating these aircraft for some time. The decision was due by last year, but I guess they needed more time. It would be nice to see the 747-8i in CX colours  

However, as they have been quite reluctant in ordering either the A380 or the 747-8i I do wonder if they'll end up with either aircraft at all.

Quoting na (Reply 3):
Forget hideous overstretched boring tubes. I hope a 777-9X never sees the light of day as being longer than the already disproportioned 77W it would easily be the ugliest widebody ever.
Good to read that the 787 problems might delay a decision about the 777X (and therefore likely also the possible service entry) .

This thread is not about the 777, it's about CX evaluating 747-8 and A380, and I'd thank you not to drag the 777 into this topic, especially if your sole intention is to bash it like you always do. It's getting old and tiring.  
Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
I doubt Joe Public would notice. Most people don;t care what the aircraft type is nowadays so your argument that fleet planners just follow the crowd like lemmings over a cliff is not accurate. It is the quality of the soft and hard product that matters not the platform in which it is carried.

        

The on board hard and soft product is what Joe Public would experience and base their fondness for the airline on that. I don't think the aircraft type matters as much to them as it obviously does to a.nutters like us.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff

I think part of that is due to the airlines putting their newest and most sophisticated hard product on board the A380 - to the point that some of the current A380 operators have hard product exclusive to the type: QF has F only on the A380, SQ's R class, EK's F class showers and business class seats etc.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-01 05:02:30 and read 37871 times.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Most of the airlines that fly similar high capacity long haul routes to CX, have gone A380, so one would assume the balance of favour is with that plane. The need to get the max out of each LHR and HKG movement is also a clear driver. But Boeing need a boost in spirit and 20 748i's on the books from CX would do that

Even if Boeing "gave" Cathay 20 748i for "next to nothing" would it boast the program ? Probably not much. I could see Boeing doing a combination 748i and 777-9X deal where CX gets say 10 748i for 8-10 years leases and then gets the 777-9X when they are ready to be delivered.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-01 05:06:14 and read 37828 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
I suspect the A388 is a little big

Wait, you think the A388 is too big, yet CX is interested in the A389?   

With Asian traffic growth, the A388 is the only sensible answer IMHO. It offers further growth to the A389 whereas the 748i is never going to get any bigger.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-01 05:13:11 and read 37770 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 18):
Wait, you think the A388 is too big, yet CX is interested in the A389?   

With Asian traffic growth, the A388 is the only sensible answer IMHO.

Totally agree with this. With CX as a possible customer the A380 is the favorite for me to win this comparison as well. The airframe is continuously improving and has much more growth and improvement potential then the B748i, which is as an airframe is at the end of it's life cycle. The A389 would be CX favorite for sure, but that version is yet to come. But I believe we will see it launched around 2015 with a possible EIS around 2020.  .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: JerseyFlyer
Posted 2013-02-01 05:29:44 and read 37606 times.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 13):
availability might help B

Allegedly there are 10 x relatively near-term A380 slots allocated to HK Airlines that may become available.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-02-01 05:31:46 and read 37589 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):
It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't. If it's the "best in the world", I wonder why they still have so many A346s. Still who needs to make money? Oh wait, Lufty do, which is why they're finally dumping short haul flying from non core assest to someone else.

For a "number cruncher" it is very easy to see why the A346 is best in the world at LH.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-01 05:43:56 and read 37479 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
However, as much as I love the 747, the reality is that it's at the end of the road.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 18):
the 748i is never going to get any bigger.

I think that's a bit premature. While I agree that it is highly unlikely that there will be a further 747 derivative beyond the -8, Boeing did propose an 85m 747-600X back in the mid 1990s. I think that it is possible that there might be a further stretch in the future.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

I disagree. I think any well run airline would only choose an aircraft because it's the right aircraft for them, not because of any "pride" or "vanity". Any "prestige" that may or may not be associated with an aircraft should be discarded and the numbers examined dispassionately.

[Edited 2013-02-01 06:35:58]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-01 05:50:00 and read 37429 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
Myself, I'd rather have them wait a few years and go for 777-9X. Forget ugly doubledeckers.

Brave thing to say here, lol...

I really do think the future belongs to big twins though. The 779x is probably the best choice for CX, but time will tell on this order...

Quoting na (Reply 3):

I think LH is a great example to follow though the current school of me-too thinker smartasses in the airline fleet planning elsewhere makes it unlikely. LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

I like that too. But I think DL's fleet isn't too bad either for the same reasons you like LH's...

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):

I don't think it necessarily works like that; sure, commonality is important, but if the aircraft isn't right for the job, no amount of commonality is going to make a difference.

Yup. Especially when we're talking f's & i's.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
I just can't see CX going for the 747-8i, especially as

I can see the 748i winning this bid, however, if it truly is just between that & the 388. Boeing won't give it away, but I think they'll get a huge break on delivery times vs the 388...

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 12):

Enough with "bean counters" please, we don't count beans, it makes hard working intelligent people sound like numpties.

Ok, I'll buy that. Those guys make sure we have jobs & don't go insolvent. I'd rather see more 77Ws, 787s, & 330/350s out there than 748is if it means better job security through decent product efficiency. VLA's look pretty, but the liability factor (for slow sales or weak routings) is tremendous. I for one totally respect decisions that take this into account, yes.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 16):

However, as they have been quite reluctant in ordering either the A380 or the 747-8i I do wonder if they'll end up with either aircraft at all.

Personally, I hope they do not. We have enough 747s & 380s around for now. I think a capital airline like CX making their bread on 77W/E/As & A33Xs is actually pretty neat and makes them a little different, which is a good thing. If they can keep this going and make money, why not, right?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Richard28
Posted 2013-02-01 06:00:54 and read 37312 times.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport.

yes a lot of marketing and hype surrounded the order, but there were some sound reasons to back it up at the time.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-01 06:14:16 and read 37770 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Even if Boeing "gave" Cathay 20 748i for "next to nothing" would it boast the program ?

Not a great question to ask, since Boeing has been pretty clear that they are holding to a minimum amount of profit per 748 sold. Boeing has said that they have been asked to part with 748s for "next to nothing" and have said no.

The net import of this is that Boeing seems willing to slow down or shut down the 748 line if profitable sales don't appear.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-01 06:16:57 and read 37681 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 22):
I think that's a bt premature. While I agree that it is highly unlikely that there will be a further 747 derivative beyond the -8, Boeing did propose an 85m 747-600X back in the mid 1990s. I think that it is possible that there might be a further stretch in the future.

Sure, a lot of things are possible, and Boeing isn't ruling anything out. But it wouldn't really make much sense to go and do another re-hash of the 747 around 2020 given the limited success of the 747-8i and the cost involved in doing another stretch.
I certainly wouldn't place any bets on a further derivative seeing the light of day. The 747 airframe is IMHO at the end of its useful commercial development cycle, and it's a very slim chance that there is going to be a 747-9i. Compare that to the A380, which seems much more future-proof - much newer technology all around, more growth potential and a stretch being actively pitched by the manufacturer for an EIS around 2020.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-01 06:20:52 and read 37994 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
I think they go for 747-8i, due to the commonality with their -8Fs, unfortunately.

IMHO, There are a few more "premium oriented" (vs volume) carriers that have watched LH and the 748 closely and seen the success they have ad with it.

CX is probably one of these airlines.

Their commonality with their freighters only is a plus.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-01 06:37:47 and read 38218 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 27):
IMHO, There are a few more "premium oriented" (vs volume) carriers that have watched LH and the 748 closely and seen the success they have ad with it.

IMHO, There are a few more "premium oriented" (vs volume) carriers that have watched LH and the A380 closely and seen the success they have ad with it.

Sorry, couldn't resist   

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-01 07:16:22 and read 37930 times.

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 24):
I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport.

yes a lot of marketing and hype surrounded the order, but there were some sound reasons to back it up at the time.

Indeed it highlights why a lot of the "VLA optimists" were so wrong-headed at the time of the WhaleJet launch. They seemed to presume that the economy would only ever grow, that airlines would never consolidate, that alliances would never strengthen, that airport access would never improve, that airport efficiency would never improve, etc.

It seems they were taken in by the same "drug like rush" that Richard A ascribes to the fans of the DreamLemon.

However, the good news is we have cool new airplanes and their technology in our world, so bravo to the A380 and the 748 and 788, and too bad for the shareholders!

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-01 07:24:18 and read 38103 times.

Perhaps CX will order both?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-02-01 07:34:50 and read 37963 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 29):
Indeed it highlights why a lot of the "VLA optimists" were so wrong-headed at the time of the WhaleJet launch. They seemed to presume that the economy would only ever grow, that airlines would never consolidate, that alliances would never strengthen, that airport access would never improve, that airport efficiency would never improve, etc.

Or they just think there are plenty enough times when demand is such that a single large plane is better than many small.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: behramjee
Posted 2013-02-01 07:41:05 and read 38012 times.

Keeping in mind that CXs current B744s seat 359 pax in a 4 class premium configuration, the B748 if ordered by CX would seat in the same layout a maximum of 410 seats aka 14% capacity increase which isnt much.

However an A380 in 4 classes can easily accommodate 480 passengers (Qantas like) which provides a 30% capacity increase versus CX's B744s and this is what they are after I reckon especially since it will enable more F/J class seats being fitted in resulting in higher yields en-route. CX's B744s currently have 9F and 46J and on the A380 it can easily be 12F + 66J if required.

The only area where the B748i holds an advantage over the A380 is the amount of cargo it can carry in its belly, but with such a large dedicated freighter fleet along with numerous B77Ws/A330s and A350s on order, if an A380 order does happen, the balance freight can easily be accommodated elsewhere on other flights operated by a different aircraft.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: airlinebuilder
Posted 2013-02-01 07:54:38 and read 37863 times.

this is going to be an AIRBUS WIN no doubt about it..... the era of the A380 has already began for quite some time. Lets just give to who truly deserves it, AIRBUS. Boeing particularly the B747 family now the B748i had it time and so far did not foresee the global demand or restricted airport slots and moving the most pax load and cargo all in one trip.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-01 08:18:00 and read 37700 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 23):
I really do think the future belongs to big twins though. The 779x is probably the best choice for CX, but time will tell on this order...

I agree with that. The days of quad engined jets are all but over, especially when advances in technology have allowed twins to grow both in size and in range.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 23):
I can see the 748i winning this bid, however, if it truly is just between that & the 388.

I sincerely hope you are correct. I would like to see the 747-8i winning this bid, if only for selfish reasons. It would be nice of them to go against the trend. A CX 747-8i would look magnificent.



Nevertheless I'm sure that CX will only order the aircraft that's best for them, regardless of any illusory sense of "prestige" that may be attached to it by aviation enthusiasts.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 26):
I certainly wouldn't place any bets on a further derivative seeing the light of day.

Nor would I, but I'm just throwing it out there as a possibility. As Boeing have not officially announced that the -8 will be the final derivative of the 747, I would argue that to say such a derivative would "never" happen is jumping the gun a bit.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: airlinebuilder
Posted 2013-02-01 08:30:35 and read 37452 times.

I think Boeing really missed the train there when they ignored the concept of the double decker through and through including the acquired rights on the MD 12, they are just to proud to say that somehow AIRBUS made the right move this time on the VLA. World is round and what goes up must go down and so goes the nature of things.......

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scottpilgrim
Posted 2013-02-01 08:37:44 and read 37309 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 32):
Keeping in mind that CXs current B744s seat 359 pax in a 4 class premium configuration, the B748 if ordered by CX would seat in the same layout a maximum of 410 seats aka 14% capacity increase which isnt much.

However an A380 in 4 classes can easily accommodate 480 passengers (Qantas like) which provides a 30% capacity increase versus CX's B744s and this is what they are after I reckon especially since it will enable more F/J class seats being fitted in resulting in higher yields en-route. CX's B744s currently have 9F and 46J and on the A380 it can easily be 12F + 66J if required.

The only area where the B748i holds an advantage over the A380 is the amount of cargo it can carry in its belly, but with such a large dedicated freighter fleet along with numerous B77Ws/A330s and A350s on order, if an A380 order does happen, the balance freight can easily be accommodated elsewhere on other flights operated by a different aircraft.

Agreed, with the A380 CX can increase the number of seats available on high-yield flights without having to deal with slot restrictions at home and abroad. But didn't CX used to say they preferred frequency over capacity? Is this still their strategy for expansion? If so I'd say just a handful of A380s for increasing capacity while the 3rd runway is being built, as after completion they should be free to increase frequencies (except LHR).

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-02-01 08:40:31 and read 37293 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 32):
Keeping in mind that CXs current B744s seat 359 pax in a 4 class premium configuration, the B748 if ordered by CX would seat in the same layout a maximum of 410 seats aka 14% capacity increase which isnt much.

Yes, but the 744s are on their way out; the 77Ws seat only 275 in a four class layout, so that raises the question of how many pax the A380 would seat in this layout.

http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Cat...fic_Airways_Boeing_777-300ER_A.php

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: A388
Posted 2013-02-01 09:27:31 and read 36297 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 14):
BA are wet-leasing 747-8F, but decided to go for A380 for their pax fleet.

Don't forget that BA's 748F's are not their own but from GSSS so that crew has no relation to BA. BA does nothing with these 748F's except lease them, no maintenance. The BA A388's, however, are BA's own, so they will have their own crew and everything else that comes with it.

I hope CX will go for the A380 (maybe the A380HGW is better for them?)  

A388

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: JHCRJ700
Posted 2013-02-01 09:32:35 and read 36147 times.

Quoting na (Reply 5):
Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):So everyone who independently ran the numbers to see if the B747-8i was a good platform into the 2020s and said no is a fool except the airline of your home country? I am assuming you don't work in a discipline that demands a good business case before embarking on a multi billion dollar investment because your post is just fan-boyish. Is it so hard to show some respect to us "number crunchers"? Long hours and advanced maths seem to count for squat if it diesn't fit your favourite plane. Sorry but this sort of thing on here just bugs me as it over simplifies something that is rightly complex.

It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't.

I thoroughly think that many decisions are not ONLY based that way, they are also based on what most of the competition does and the fear of an "own way". I am not a "number cruncher", certainly not, but I have met many in my long working life and what I said is the result of my experience with them. Of cause I know decisions arent made on prettyness, stupid to think so.

Read the book "Airbus vs. Boeing" There is definitely some number crunching going on, but a lot of times it all comes down to who is willing to give the better deal on new frames.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-01 09:32:58 and read 36123 times.

Quoting A388 (Reply 38):
maybe the A380HGW is better for them?

They are likely to order the highest GW variant there is since payload and specifically cargo are very important to CX. That is if they would order the A380, but my guess is they will.  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: MD-90
Posted 2013-02-01 10:02:05 and read 35548 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 32):
However an A380 in 4 classes can easily accommodate 480 passengers (Qantas like) which provides a 30% capacity increase versus CX's B744s and this is what they are after I reckon especially since it will enable more F/J class seats being fitted in resulting in higher yields en-route. CX's B744s currently have 9F and 46J and on the A380 it can easily be 12F + 66J if required.

14% more versus 30% is a big delta.

Cathay may not want 30% more capacity per flight at this time.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-01 10:42:45 and read 34860 times.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 33):
Lets just give to who truly deserves it, AIRBUS. Boeing particularly the B747 family now the B748i had it time and so far did not foresee the global demand or restricted airport slots and moving the most pax load and cargo all in one trip.

The truth is that the A380 is a money losing program and a lot of its sales are due to one customer that is using the airframe to pull away a lot of business away from a lot of other traditional Airbus and Boeing customers. It's pretty clear that SIA (the topic of this thread) is one of the customers suffering from the "Emirates Effect".

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: AustrianZRH
Posted 2013-02-01 11:13:18 and read 34269 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
It's pretty clear that SIA (the topic of this thread) is one of the customers suffering from the "Emirates Effect".

Actually Cathay Pacific is the topic of this thread   . And SQ is suffering that much from the Emirates effect that they just upped their A380 order by 5 frames last October.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Heavierthanair
Posted 2013-02-01 11:30:05 and read 33864 times.

G'day

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
the A380 is a money losing program and a lot of its sales are due to one customer

What a revelation. I do hope Airbus is aware of this danger to their very existence. Will Boeing or others be able to fill the void if the 'bus company ceases to exist?         


Cheers

Peter

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: goosebayguy
Posted 2013-02-01 12:40:48 and read 32550 times.

I just love the way people think Airbus is losing money on the 380. Sure its investment needs to be repaid but it will make money. Does the same person think that Boeing are making money on their 748?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-02-01 13:55:10 and read 31283 times.

Quoting JHCRJ700 (Reply 39):
Read the book "Airbus vs. Boeing" There is definitely some number crunching going on, but a lot of times it all comes down to who is willing to give the better deal on new frames.

i.e. number crunching

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-01 14:09:56 and read 31130 times.

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 24):
I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport
Quoting Revelation (Reply 25):
Not a great question to ask, since Boeing has been pretty clear that they are holding to a minimum amount of profit per 748 sold. Boeing has said that they have been asked to part with 748s for "next to nothing" and have said no.

The net import of this is that Boeing seems willing to slow down or shut down the 748 line if profitable sales don't appear.

Not every airline asking for "net to nothing" 748 is Cathay, CX would be a great boost to the program.

[Edited 2013-02-01 14:11:38]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-01 14:14:56 and read 31030 times.

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 24):
Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport.

Virgin still needs the A380 for certain routes since LHR still has slot issues and no Bermuda 2 means more airlines are competing for an eve small available pool of slots. BA keeps adding every slot they can get their hand on, BMI was just their latest tasty meal.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-01 14:26:40 and read 30841 times.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
In this case there may be a good case for the B747-8i within Cathay as I suspect the A388 is a little big and they already operate a good sized fleet of the B747-8F. We shall see.

CX seems like the best airline currently to buy 747-8is for these reasons.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-01 14:29:37 and read 30843 times.

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 43):
Actually Cathay Pacific is the topic of this thread

Oops! My bad...

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 46):
I just love the way people think Airbus is losing money on the 380. Sure its investment needs to be repaid but it will make money.

According to the CEO it still costs more money to make an A380 than it brings in to the company, and this was before the cracked rib feet issue, so my statement stands even without considering the investment so far and the time value of money.

PS: Thanks for the love!

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 46):
Does the same person think that Boeing are making money on their 748?

I think the answer is "no". The VLA/4-engine/double-decker space is an industry-wide disappointment.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-02-01 14:54:37 and read 30400 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 53):
According to the CEO it still costs more money to make an A380 than it brings in to the company, and this was before the cracked rib feet issue, so my statement stands even without considering the investment so far and the time value of money.

As does manufacturing a 787. Difference is that the A380 deliveries are expected to be positive in 2015 (or is it 2014) and we have no idea when the 787 will do so. The 26 x 787 delivered thru Q3 2012 costed 14.275 BUSD more to manufacture than Boeing have taken as COGS. It is some three times more than the net income reported in the financials.

And I am not saying the 787 is a bad program.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: B2707SST
Posted 2013-02-01 15:03:12 and read 30289 times.

I expect the A380 will win this RFP, since the market seems to have taken a pass on the 747-8 (not that either is lighting the world on fire) and CX could probably use the extra seats on key routes like HKG-LHR that are constrained by time zones and receive several 744/77W flights over a short window. However...

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
The airframe is continuously improving and has much more growth and improvement potential then the B748i, which is as an airframe is at the end of it's life cycle.

Frankly, this argument has never made a lot of sense to me, especially for an airline like CX that already operates 747-400s and -8Fs. Commonality cuts both ways: an A388 order now may open the door to better A388s and A389s in the future, but by that logic, the 748I door is already wide open since you've already added 744s and 748Fs. From a fleet management standpoint, CX could go through the significant cost of adding a new type now (the A388) and then save on potential derivatives (improved A388s and A389s) in the future, or they could add a very low-cost derivative now (the 748I) that builds on the existing 744/748F fleet, and then potentially add a new type in the future (A388/A389) if they want to. All else being equal, the finance people will tell you to push the bigger expense of a new type into the future, especially when it is not at all certain that the A389 will come to pass - it has been a persistent rumor since the days of the A3XX yet never seems to get any closer to launch.

And of course, the actual frames you receive don't really change no matter what future derivatives may appear - you might see a small bump in MTOW or an engine PIP, but an A388 built for CX in 2015 doesn't care much if an A389 appears in 2018. Maybe A388 residual value goes up if there's a bigger global fleet of A388s/A389s, but on the other hand, an A389 could clobber A388 values if it comes to be seen as the better aircraft, e.g. 772A was killed by 772ER and 773A was killed by 773ER.

Again, I'd bet on the A380 to win here, since it just seems like the better aircraft for most carriers as evidenced by the order tallies. But I doubt "growth potential" will be a key reason why.

-B2707SST

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-01 15:53:02 and read 29610 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
Perhaps CX will order both?


Dream on..

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-01 16:13:41 and read 29412 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
Perhaps CX will order both?
Quoting abba (Reply 56):
Dream on..

If it's sole-source, then I would expect the A380-800 to win it.

But LH, KE and (in theory) HX have found a role for both the A380-800 and the 747-8 in their fleets. And like CX, KE also operates the 747-8F.

Boeing is pitching the 747-8 at 777-300ER operators with strong Economy loads. And CX's four-class 747-400s seat almost 100 more than their four-class 777-300ERs / A350-1000s.

[Edited 2013-02-01 16:15:29]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: rotating14
Posted 2013-02-01 16:31:22 and read 29088 times.

How much of an investment would CX need to make to train pilots to fly the A380 vs pilots that are already trained on a current existing model they already fly?? Personally I think if they (CX) are bringing it up again like they are, they might need it sooner than later and the A380 might, might I stress, be too much of a plane to fill every time.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-01 16:38:45 and read 29062 times.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 59):
How much of an investment would CX need to make to train pilots to fly the A380 vs pilots that are already trained on a current existing model they already fly?

As an A330 and A340 operator, the cross-training to the A380 would be pretty easy. They're also going to be an A350 operator.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2013-02-01 17:37:17 and read 28349 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):
If it's sole-source, then I would expect the A380-800 to win it.

I guess in part it depends on how many routes Cathay would fly where the A380 simply can't land but they need the size.

In the end, as others have said, it will come down to pricing and terms.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: flightsimer
Posted 2013-02-01 17:44:40 and read 28311 times.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Disagree with you on this. The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff

And yet EK recently announced that they would be reconfiguring A380s with a higher density configuration with no F class at all.

There is no point in having the space to provide lavish amenities when those amenities and cabins aren't making the carrier money because nobody is willing to pay for those seats. As it becomes clearer and clearer on price being the factor of a ticket purchase and not the quality of the experience, I bet we will see more and more operators ditching these lavishly equipped A380s.

So If that's the case, then the 747-8i can be the more appealing option. The A380 is the better option only if you can fill it.

The A380 has the higher risk for an airline that is exposed to high fluctuations in demand.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 33):
and moving the most pax load and cargo all in one trip.


But that's the thing, Neither one of these planes do that. The A380 can carry more passengers per trip but considerably less cargo while the 747-8i carries more cargo but less passengers. That's the reason why CX likes the -900. It will provide them the larger passenger growth, but also a larger cargo carrying capability. So it ultimately is coming down to what CX deems important to them now.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 34):

Boeing has already been toying with an idea of a further stretch. They even mentioned it on the inaugural LH flight.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):

Add transaero to that list as well. So of the 6 carriers who have ordered or have signed LOIs for the 747-8, four also have the A380 included in there fleet plans.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-01 19:26:47 and read 27165 times.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 55):
B2707SST

Thanks for your extensive comments. I highly appreciate you making the effort to elaborate on your opinion. That is what A-net makes a great forum.  

I am not sure though if I agree with you 100%, but that is a different matter.  .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Lafite82
Posted 2013-02-01 23:02:01 and read 25585 times.

I find it strange that neither zeke nor CX flyboy has made any comment up till now !

Both aircrafts are well built and would suit CX's needs, however since they already operate the B748F, wouldn't it make more financial sense to purchase the B748i just for the sake of commonality?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-02 00:00:05 and read 25059 times.

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 38):
Cathay may not want 30% more capacity per flight at this time.

*cough* Check Asia's traffic growth *cough*

Quoting Revelation (Reply 39):
It's pretty clear that SIA (the topic of this thread) is one of the customers suffering from the "Emirates Effect".

This is the same SIA that has just purchased additional A380s and has large numbers of A350s, 787s and 77Ws on order? They must really be hurting.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-02 00:11:33 and read 24957 times.

No one thinks its worth doing a 757 replacement (middle range) under 1000 frames is a waste. But somehow Airbus should phantom the A389 when the A380 program has sold less than even 500 frames. Remember that Airbus is a business, not a charity for enthusiasts of aviation.

Most airlines think the A388 is too big, why would more order an even larger frame? To make a stretch for 2 or 3 customers will hardly make a big profit for Airbus.

Even the 748 cost Boeing more than 5 billion, and that would be about what a 389 would cost. As the unit prices are way too low they would have to sell many more to make a profit, look at the 787 a much smaller aircraft, it will have to sell in numbers above 1000 to make a profit in the end. Parts and service will not pay the bill with so few orders.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: david_itl
Posted 2013-02-02 00:26:29 and read 24828 times.

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 55):

And yet EK recently announced that they would be reconfiguring A380s with a higher density configuration with no F class at all.

Back in 2008, Flight International reported the 3 varieties of EK A380s.

"Initial A380s will be delivered to the airline in a 489-seat, three-class layout. Until now, Emirates has only revealed the planned seating densities (later aircraft will have three-class, 517-seat or two-class, 604-seat layouts), but not the specific cabin layouts."

So I really don't know why people are making a big fuss over what EK have recently said as it was always planned?!

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: flightsimer
Posted 2013-02-02 00:51:22 and read 24573 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 60):

If emirates is already saying they aren't selling their first class tickets in amounts they were predicting and for the profit they were and are now thinking about removing the cabins on already in service aircraft, then yes, there is something to worry about. As far as I have seen, they are not talking about new deliveries.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-02 01:06:04 and read 24465 times.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 30):
Boeing particularly the B747 family now the B748i had it time and so far did not foresee the global demand or restricted airport slots and moving the most pax load and cargo all in one trip.

The 777-300ER carries more cargo by volume than the 747-8i and the A380-800.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 32):
I think Boeing really missed the train there when they ignored the concept of the double decker through and through including the acquired rights on the MD 12

No, they made exactly the right decision not to pursue an all new VLA quad design. Without checking, the A380 and the 747-8i combined has sold around 300 frames so far, so neither aircraft are setting sales records. The 747-8, being a derivative, was the cheaper alternative to designing an all new VLA. I don't know if the 747-8 is making Boeing any money, so I can't comment on the ROI equation. But one thing I'm pretty sure of is that if Boeing had invested heavily and done an all new VLA instead of the 747-8, there would have been no winners; both OEMs would lose.

Quoting scottpilgrim (Reply 33):
But didn't CX used to say they preferred frequency over capacity? Is this still their strategy for expansion? If so I'd say just a handful of A380s for increasing capacity while the 3rd runway is being built, as after completion they should be free to increase frequencies (except LHR).

CX has generally shown that they preferred to increase frequency instead of upguaging where there is demand for a greater number of seats. This also gives them the flexibility of reducing the frequency again if the demand drops periodically.

I agree that if CX are to order a VLA, it would be a relatively small order, as there aren't many routes that are both slot restricted and have a more or less constant yearly load factor.

Another issue that needs to be considered is that there are only 5 A380 capable jetbridges in HKG (admittedly I got this information from Wikipedia so if that's wrong please correct me). If a fleet of A380s is to be based there, HKG will need to expand the number of A380 capable gates, which would cost a not insignificant sum of money.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 37):
They are likely to order the highest GW variant there is since payload and specifically cargo are very important to CX. That is if they would order the A380, but my guess is they will.

Payload may improve but there's no way for them to improve the available volume.

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 55):
Boeing has already been toying with an idea of a further stretch. They even mentioned it on the inaugural LH flight.

I think it's fair to say that Boeing were a lot more optimistic about the 747-8i's chances at launch than they would be now.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 58):
*cough* Check Asia's traffic growth *cough*

That's why CX has been increasing its fleet size. It has 29 777-300ERs with another 17 on order as well as 26 A350-1000s to be delivered from 2018.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cx flyboy
Posted 2013-02-02 01:50:44 and read 23954 times.

Quoting Lafite82 (Reply 57):
I find it strange that neither zeke nor CX flyboy has made any comment up till now !

We have not been told anything internally through company communications channels. The rumours about 'maybe' an order being made have now been around for years and the interview with the CEO does not really add anything new. He didn't even commit to an order...just said that a decision will be made on whether a decision will be made to buy!

Plenty of analysis has been made on previous threads about the 748i and 380 in CX operations including things like fuel burn, cargo capacity etc... Personally I do not have anything to add regarding this! If I hear any new rumours I will report back.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: carpethead
Posted 2013-02-02 02:40:39 and read 23635 times.

HKG is getting quite busy and if they don't build another runway, there will be some issues getting new slots at some peak times.
Plus European red eyes from HKG are common and particularly at the European end, there are some slot issues that would warrant use of larger gauge aircraft.
Alas the commonality issues always get overblown on this site. If CX requires 400 or 500 passengers to be moved on a single flight on at least a few flights, they will other one or the other.
It would be nice to see CX put in an order for either or both. So much talk but little action.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 62):
Another issue that needs to be considered is that there are only 5 A380 capable jetbridges in HKG

Well, if the hometown airline(s) don't operate A380s, there would be very little need to modify tens of gates. Don't you think that CX and Hong Kong Airport will come up with a plan to have numerous gates A380 capable, if they do go ahead and order the type. It's like NRT has only a few A380 capable gates, but since JL nor NH have little to no interest in ordering the type, why does NAA (Narita Airport Authority) need to spend millions to have 20 A380 capable gates. I am sure CX as well as numerous airlines around the world crunch the numbers on the cost of infrastructure modification to the A380 acquisition evaluation.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-02 02:42:07 and read 23633 times.

I think the time window for the 748i has passed, the 744s seem to be replaced mostly by 77Ws and a few by the larger A380.

The only airline I think could really have a use for the 748i is SAA, besides LH.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-02 06:17:16 and read 23185 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 62):
That's why CX has been increasing its fleet size. It has 29 777-300ERs with another 17 on order as well as 26 A350-1000s to be delivered from 2018.

Cathay's fllet plans seems to say Large twins, including lots of A350-900. These work best for its large cargo operations and big J class cabins. CX's 77W vers. 5 has 53 J class seats,

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-02 06:56:53 and read 23040 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 66):
Cathay's fllet plans seems to say Large twins, including lots of A350-900. These work best for its large cargo operations and big J class cabins. CX's 77W vers. 5 has 53 J class seats

Cathays fleet plans seem to suggest they'll evaluate aircraft in whatever category is appropriate, INCLUDING VLA's I'd suggest. Otherwise this thread wouldn't exist, would it?

Rgds

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-02 07:22:22 and read 22893 times.

Quoting carpethead (Reply 64):
I am sure CX as well as numerous airlines around the world crunch the numbers on the cost of infrastructure modification to the A380 acquisition evaluation.

I agree that they would, but that's what I was getting at. I didn't raise that point to suggest that the lack of infrastructure is a barrier to the acquisition of the A380, but that it is a "stumbling block", if you like, something that must be considered and dealt with before going down that path.

There was a thread here recently discussing HKG's proposal for a third runway, which should ease the congestion at the airport. I have not, however, heard anything about a plan to increase the number of A380 capable gates, although that would undoubtedly change if CX were to subsidise the cost of building them.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-02 07:38:56 and read 22801 times.

Does anyone wish to speculate what a CX seating arrangement might be for a A380 and a 748i ?

Also, is there an expected fuel burn improvement still to come for the 748i ?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-02 07:49:32 and read 22814 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 69):
Does anyone wish to speculate what a CX seating arrangement might be for a A380 and a 748i?

For the 747-8, they should be able to add 12 Business Class seats and 10 Economy seats.



Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 69):
Also, is there an expected fuel burn improvement still to come for the 748i?

Boeing is working on reducing another 2.3 tons of empty weight out of the frame (they already had removed that much). GE will also be releasing a PiP for the engines that should reduce SFC by another 1.6% or more.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-02-02 08:00:36 and read 22711 times.

To be clear, which A380s are EK removing F from? Would it not be simpler just to ensure fewer new aircraft were delivered with F than muck about taking out existing expensive furnishings and fittings?

Anyone comment?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2013-02-02 08:01:02 and read 22739 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 69):
Does anyone wish to speculate what a CX seating arrangement might be for a A380 and a 748i ?

Also, is there an expected fuel burn improvement still to come for the 748i ?

Hard to say on seating in each type, but my guess would be the B-748 in the neighborhood of 380-400 seats and the A-388 in the neighborhood of 430-450 seats, both in a 3 class arrangement.

Yes, the expected fuel burn is going to improve with the B-748 (it isn't that bad now) with the GEnx-67 engine PIP1 and PIP2 coming in future years. I would also expect further empty weight reductions and some aerodynamic improvements to also improve the gas milage.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: packsonflight
Posted 2013-02-02 08:38:11 and read 22550 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 72):
Yes, the expected fuel burn is going to improve with the B-748 (it isn't that bad now) with the GEnx-67 engine PIP1 and PIP2 coming in future years. I would also expect further empty weight reductions and some aerodynamic improvements to also improve the gas milage.

Why are the improvements reserved for the 748 exclusively?

I would expect similar improvements to the 380 over time.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-02 08:47:32 and read 22489 times.

Quoting packsonflight (Reply 73):

No one said anything like it either, maybe it was you that interpreted it that way? Or maybe A has not said much about the future A380? People tell what they know.

Its becoming a myth here that the 748 has such bad economics.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-02 09:05:37 and read 22419 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 67):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 66):
Cathay's fllet plans seems to say Large twins, including lots of A350-900. These work best for its large cargo operations and big J class cabins. CX's 77W vers. 5 has 53 J class seats

Cathays fleet plans seem to suggest they'll evaluate aircraft in whatever category is appropriate, INCLUDING VLA's I'd suggest. Otherwise this thread wouldn't exist, would it?

Indeed as suggested above CX like most airlines are continuously evaluating their fleet, and has been the case for a while now, they are considering VLAs.

Things I find "new" are:
> The CEO is relatively new and may have different perspectives than his predecessor
> The CEO points out that 747-400 will be phased out of service by the end of the year
> This means there might be more pressure to move forward sooner rather than later
> The CEO is pointing out that the main issue is HKG and LHR constraints

The airline already has large orders for widebodys that are "near-744" sized so it seems to me the broader 744 replacement issue is solved: it'll largely be done with 773 and A351s. The real questions are (a) does it make sense to get a small fleet of one new aircraft type and jump +100 or so seats in capacity mainly to deal with LHR and HKG capacity constraints and (b) if so, does the efficiency and appeal of the A380 overwhelm its separate training and maintenance program and later delivery slots?

I suspect the answer to (a) is "yes" because I think the CEO already knows the answer and if it didn't make sense for him to add VLAs he would not want to build expectations up only to have to let them down later, and I think (b) is a toss-up yet I think he knows the answer to that as well and won't share it because he is still playing the vendors off each other to get the best deal.

Another question to me that naturally flows from this is that if the trend is for the B777 and A350 to broadly be the B744 replacement of choice and the A380 only bought in small numbers to serve the constrained mega-hubs (HKG, LHR, etc) and a small number of empire builders (EK, maybe TK?), will it ever really be a money-making proposition for Airbus? As disappointed as B must be to not have BA's 744 replacement business, A must be pretty disappointed to see them only take up a dozen to replace 50+ 744s and to have QF stunt its growth by its EK alliance and for CX to have a long hard decision process on whether or not to take on VLAs at all.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-02 09:26:29 and read 22336 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 47):
I think the answer is "no". The VLA/4-engine/double-decker space is an industry-wide disappointment.


I do not think it has so much to do with VLA as it has to do with program implementation. The 748i is simply an attempt to get a few extra sales based on the work done on the F program anyway on what seems to be the very last and final incarnation of the jumbo. Perhaps some nostalgia at Boeing also played a role in the offering of the i?

Airbus has had huge problems implementing the 380 program due to software mix up and production and ramp up problems. Some of the same issues has hid the 787 and might actually mean that the 380 - overall - is going to be in positive territory financially well before the 787.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-02 09:52:15 and read 22227 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 76):
I do not think it has so much to do with VLA as it has to do with program implementation.

Certainly a factor, but IMHO the main factor is the availability of large two-engine frames that do a large part of the mission that was once solely the domain of four-engine VLAs. We're not likely to see any traditional four-engined VLA be as successful as those nostalgic 742s/744s. I suspect if/when the market center shifts to need ~1400 VLA frames, the need will be addressed by either larger twins or BWBs.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-02 10:10:41 and read 22143 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 77):
I suspect if/when the market center shifts to need ~1400 VLA frames, the need will be addressed by either larger twins or BWBs.

Just read the other day about the NASA/Boeing BWB progress, next up is building a cabin with non circular shape and getting it as strong as a tube.

Maybe the 787 and A350/380 were the last new tube+wing designs. If you can save 30% on the fuel bill and lower noise a lot..I hope the tube is a thing of the past before I leave this world.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-02 10:28:35 and read 22051 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 70):
Boeing is working on reducing another 2.3 tons of empty weight out of the frame

Is this " work in progress" reflected in the December 2012 published OEW of 220.128t or not?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-02 10:30:05 and read 22116 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 74):
Its becoming a myth here that the 748 has such bad economics

I didn't see anyone say the 748i has "such bad economics".
It clearly hasn't. But Packsonflight is absolutely right to point out that the A380 will see improvements as much as the 748i will.
In fact in the long term, given the potential that it had built in, the A380 is likely to see a lot more improvement than the 748i ever will.
From my seat, the 748i's weakness vs the A380 isn't its current economics, but it's lack of potential relative to the A380.
Which doesn't make the 748i any worse a plane today .....

Quoting Revelation (Reply 75):
Another question to me that naturally flows from this is that if the trend is for the B777 and A350 to broadly be the B744 replacement of choice and the A380 only bought in small numbers to serve the constrained mega-hubs

The issue I have with this is the notion that the 77W and A350-1000 are being bought as "744 replacements"...
There is no question in my mind that the long term trend is for passenger volume growth to continue to dramatically outstrip GDP growth.
I see a lot of, indeed the bulk of, 77W's and A350-1000 sized "350 seaters" naturally replacing the 772/A340 sized "300 seaters", rather than the 744 per se.

Nothing is certain in this world. Except perhaps that the typically size of widebodys is naturally increasing as passenger numbers increase.

The "facts" behind the anti-A380 rhetoric of last decade, of "average aircraft size decreasing" was clearly entirely driven by the proliferation of short haul narrowbodys.
In every way I know possible, the average size of long haul planes has ONLY gone UP. Feel free to disagree.

15 years ago airlines were buying 767's and A300's.
They're not today.
The OEM's don't even build widebodys that size and show absolutely no sign of doing so.
The smallest widebody you can possibly buy today is a 787-8 or an A330-200.
15 years ago planes the size of the 748i and A380 didn't exist.
But they do now. And airlines DO buy them, whatever arguments we might entertain over the volume, and reasons for it.

For me the trend is utterly unavoidable. Of course that's just my opinion  
Quoting Revelation (Reply 77):
We're not likely to see any traditional four-engined VLA be as successful as those nostalgic 742s/744s.

For the reasons I give above, I believe this is far from a given

Rgds

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: bmacleod
Posted 2013-02-02 10:39:30 and read 22050 times.

I'm hoping CX picks the 748i as lumbering through the 787 ordeal; Boeing really needs a pickup to their spirits....

I'm putting    on a A380/748i split....

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Tangomaniac
Posted 2013-02-02 10:56:04 and read 21981 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 72):
To be clear, which A380s are EK removing F from? Would it not be simpler just to ensure fewer new aircraft were delivered with F than muck about taking out existing expensive furnishings and fittings?

Anyone comment?

That's a misunderstanding: EK has no plans at all to remove F from any of its existing A380. Only a part of the new ones, which will be deliverers in 2013/14 will be in 2-class configuration (C+Y).
Remember: EK already has two configurations: Long Haul + Ultra Long Haul (with extra crew rests and less Y-seats).
Seems a quite solid business decision for me, since some routes have no big number of F-passengers, if at all.

Best regards

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-02 10:59:57 and read 21961 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 77):
Certainly a factor, but IMHO the main factor is the availability of large two-engine frames that do a large part of the mission that was once solely the domain of four-engine VLAs. We're not likely to see any traditional four-engined VLA be as successful as those nostalgic 742s/744s. I suspect if/when the market center shifts to need ~1400 VLA frames, the need will be addressed by either larger twins or BWBs.


BWB's? I'am affraid we will have to wait at the very least 4 to 5 decades before we will see BWBs in the size of a 380.

With the growth in mega cities in the world in areas where the economy is also growing fast the VLAs has a safe future. Think 10-20 years down the road and China continue to grow as China does today: Shanghai and LHR or US west cost will only see very few 779s flying and only on marginal slots... The rest will belong to the 380 - and there will be many more such routes.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-02 11:04:50 and read 21915 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 83):

Sadly the big twins will own WB long haul even in the future, why else have we not seen 100s of A380 orders from China? Frequency is king now and in the future, 3 A350-100 vs 1 A380..

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-02 11:07:37 and read 21925 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 79):
Is this " work in progress" reflected in the December 2012 published OEW of 220.128t or not?

The last 747-8 ACAP that I saw which had OEW data was September 2008 and that was 191t vs. the 197t in the December 2012 ACAP so I would guess the December 2012 ACAP reflects at least the original 2.3t reduction.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: flightsimer
Posted 2013-02-02 11:27:52 and read 21838 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 80):

There is nothing that says the 747 can not have another variant in the near future. The only thing that says that is the people who want he program to die. As long as airbus is producing A380's, Boeing has no reason To leave the market.

If you can't buy 767's do you want to explain then how 20 767-300Er's have been ordered in the last three years? Just because nobody is buying them doesn't mean they can't be built.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-02 11:28:52 and read 21859 times.

I have done some "sums" using the December 2012 load/range chart for the 748i with OEW at 220.128t and PIANO-X A380 updated to 573t MTOW and OEW reduced to 282t and a 2% fuel improvement.
I have used JFK-HKG at 16hrs or 7500nm to do the comparison. The 748i load range chart suggests a max. ZFW of 265t over that range. Fuel load would be about 183t and payload ~ 45t.
The above specified A380 for the same payload and range would have a fuel load of 190.8t. Solely based on fuel burn ( which will be about 80% of the load) I doubt if the 748i has a favourable enough spread. Some days CX has 3x 77W JFK-HKG. It is not likely this capacity could be replaced by 2x 748i but it probably could by 2x A380.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: skipness1E
Posted 2013-02-02 12:03:00 and read 21764 times.

Quoting Tangomaniac (Reply 82):
That's a misunderstanding: EK has no plans at all to remove F from any of its existing A380.

That's what I thought, thank you for clarifying.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-02-02 12:19:04 and read 21748 times.

I think it comes down to this: can the A380-800 or 747-8I fly LAX westbound to HKG non-stop year-round on what CX defines as a full-load for either plane? I do think CX may buy the 747-8I because of commonality with the 747-8F fleet.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-02 13:22:44 and read 21556 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 87):
The above specified A380 for the same payload and range would have a fuel load of 190.8t.

OOOPs my big faux pas... fuel load would be about 204t. I quoted the block fuel load and left out the reserves. This changes the "spread" quite significantly.

  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-02 13:51:29 and read 21433 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 84):
Sadly the big twins will own WB long haul even in the future, why else have we not seen 100s of A380 orders from China? Frequency is king now and in the future, 3 A350-100 vs 1 A380..


You are certainly not used to do long intercontinental flights accros timezones, I recon! For flights above 10-12 hours you basically have one or two slots which makes sense. When I lived in HK I have personally seen no less than three BA 747s taking off from HKG to LHR within less than two hours...

So why are we not seeing the 380 being ordered by the 100s? If you read my post just a little careful you will see that I do not believe that we are there just yet - Chinese people at large do not yet have the means to travel big time (nor do the Indian). But in ten or twenty years time.... Secondly, the production rate are not yet up to a level where the the 380 can be ordered in such quantities.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-02 13:51:55 and read 21462 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 89):
I think it comes down to this: can the A380-800 or 747-8I fly LAX westbound to HKG non-stop year-round on what CX defines as a full-load for either plane? I

In the FWIW department . Both can fly the route which is about 7300nm ESAD with the likely passenger layout full, plus max cargo abliet on a volume limited basis. The A380 is good for about 60t and the 748i about 50t. Fuel load would be about 210t and 178t respectively.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Wolbo
Posted 2013-02-02 13:56:39 and read 21454 times.

If CX does indeed purchase a VLA the best cards are for the A380. But if Boeing wants to make something of the 747-8I it desperately needs this order to regain some traction and that could lead to a price offer that CX can't resist.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-02 14:14:45 and read 21478 times.

Quoting Wolbo (Reply 93):
But if Boeing wants to make something of the 747-8I it desperately needs this order to regain some traction and that could lead to a price offer that CX can't resist.

Airbus and Rolls-Royce were said to have matched Boeing's RFP to British Airways on the 747-8 and yet Boeing didn't go lower to try and win it back.

And I have heard Japan Airlines was literally told to "just put down a number and we'll accept it" if they ordered a 20-40 of them, and yet they instead ordered more 777-300ERs. Of course, once JL entered bankruptcy they would have cancelled all of their 747-8 orders just as they did their 777-300ER orders, so that would have been a Pyrrhic order, anyway.



Boeing has a hard floor they won't sell a 747-8 below because if they did, it would undercut their Average Sales Price on the 777-300ER. And the 777-300ER is net-positive on each delivery whereas the 747-8 is net-negative - and selling the 747-8 for even less just means a larger loss per delivery.

The 747-8 has to sell on her own merits, not on price. I just don't believe she has much merit against the A380-800 (especially when Airbus is willing to match the price).

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-02 14:30:18 and read 21397 times.

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 86):
There is nothing that says the 747 can not have another variant in the near future. The only thing that says that is the people who want he program to die

I certainly wouldn't disagree. And I don't know anyone who "wants" the 747 programme to die.

So.
Leaving the emotion behind for a while.....

The issue is that the A380 as it exists today has that sort of development built in, whereas the 747 will almost certainly require a new variant, as you point out.

Whether the market is big enough to warrant Boeing making such an investment is a question the VLA doubters seem to ask.

A bigger/heavier/more capable A380 is small beer in comparison. The frame was designed with such in mind.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-02 15:38:15 and read 21099 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 83):
Think 10-20 years down the road and China continue to grow as China does today

There's lots of problems with such a statement.

The world would be a different place if the dot.com growth was on the same curve it once was.

You can't just project forward a straight line out for 10-20 years, IMHO.

China's already had a decade of strong growth and is ordering lots of aircraft but relatively few VLAs.

China might have issues as certain product markets saturate (think smartphones).

China is already losing interest as other places under cut it price wise and offer better intellectual property protection.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Pihero
Posted 2013-02-02 15:45:44 and read 21111 times.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 60):
"Initial A380s will be delivered to the airline in a 489-seat, three-class layout. Until now, Emirates has only revealed the planned seating densities (later aircraft will have three-class, 517-seat or two-class, 604-seat layouts), but not the specific cabin layouts."

So I really don't know why people are making a big fuss over what EK have recently said as it was always planned?!
Quoting skipness1E (Reply 71):
To be clear, which A380s are EK removing F from? Would it not be simpler just to ensure fewer new aircraft were delivered with F than muck about taking out existing expensive furnishings and fittings?

It's pretty ridiculous to base Cathay needs with the planned utilisation of the 380 by Emirates.
As said above, there is a mission that requiires the 600+ seats EK is about to use : Just look at the emirates demographics and you'll see that there is a niche for a big people mover : the expatrite work force from India, Pakistan, Thailand and the Philippines. Forget India for the time being, there is ample room for an A380 thus configured to shuttle these workers between Dubai and their countries.
Gulf Air in the eighties pioneered it with two versions of the Tristar cabin.
As far as I know there is still a premium on the A380 high yield seats.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: airlinebuilder
Posted 2013-02-02 15:57:16 and read 21014 times.

after all being said and done, most likely the most certain prediction on here would be an A380 order from CX, there is no doubt about it being a pax mover on a big scale more than any other aircraft in the market. Its flexibility to cater to various configurations as per the revenue needs is concern gives an airline leeway to play with.

it is by far not a limiting aircraft for any airline handling such pax and airport traffic.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-02 17:46:20 and read 20770 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 34):
A CX 747-8i would look magnificent.

Quite very, yes. Is that a Paine Field add-on you have there? Looks neat.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 34):
Nevertheless I'm sure that CX will only order the aircraft that's best for them, regardless of any illusory sense of "prestige" that may be attached to it by aviation enthusiasts.

Absolutely. These guys aren't stupid, and won't make a decision because that's what everyone else is doing. I'm not even convinced that they will jump on the quad VLA at this time (I guess I'll believe it when they make the order).

Quoting scottpilgrim (Reply 36):
But didn't CX used to say they preferred frequency over capacity? Is this still their strategy for expansion?

Looks that way. They did just order a flock of 77Ws not so long ago. In any case, that plane (77W) really does do great things for this. They get the option of an instant capacity bump to a little beyond a 744 if they need it, and in the mean time, can carry a great amount of cargo as well.

EK is famous for all their 380s, but the truth is that they are at least as much 77W centric as anything else. I think this says something about the versatility of that type, and an airline like CX is not going to miss that kind of profitability.

While I do believe that a quad VLA order is more likely to be in favor of the 748i, that's largely because of the huge availability advantage in its favor.

Quoting A388 (Reply 38):

Don't forget that BA's 748F's are not their own but from GSSS so that crew has no relation to BA. BA does nothing with these 748F's except lease them, no maintenance.

So is that a total ACMI deal there?

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 41):
14% more versus 30% is a big delta.

Cathay may not want 30% more capacity per flight at this time.

Good point here too. 30% capacity isn't free in terms of weight and consumption, and if CX's habit of frequency means that they'll either carry around a lot of unfilled seats or sell them off at Y class rates, then I can see how the returns aren't that enthusiastic.

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 46):
I just love the way people think Airbus is losing money on the 380.

In fairness, they would be if not for the fact that a huge deal of R&D had to be written down. Eventually they may make money off it, but like most large scale transportation projects, it will take forever to break even. Airbus has been in this game for a while now, and know that the real money is in spares.

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 46):
Does the same person think that Boeing are making money on their 748?

They may actually be on the 748f. Keep in mind that new-build freighters don't tend to discount as much and also tend to list a good deal higher in the 1st place than their PAX counterparts.

I'm sure that if Airbus had it to over again, they'd have engineered the 380 to be more readily adaptable as a freighter.

Quoting autothrust (Reply 47):

That's not correct. Some want us to believe that a-net myth. The A380 was requested by airlines, end of story.

After a damned lot of stumping from Airbus, yes. While I think it's fair to say if no 380 had ever been proposed, the airlines would never have asked for one (especially with things like the 77W & 35J in the pipeline; we have to remember that those didn't exist at the time), yes they are looking at it on their own. Now.

Quoting KaiTak747 (Reply 49):
When the 747-100 came out, people thought that was too big. 40 years later, around 1500 have been built and Boeing are still producing them. ROI, absolutely!

It was too big! 1500 of those were sold because during the day of the 74Classics, there was nothing that had its range, let alone payload/range. No 777s, no 330s, no 787s, no 350s. In that environment (as it today for the 748i), we see that it has a much tougher time.

If DC-10s, A300s & L1011s could do what 747s could with range, things would be very, very different now.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 53):
I think the answer is "no". The VLA/4-engine/double-decker space is an industry-wide disappointment.

I don't know if I'd say disappointment, but the truth is that their time is indeed past. It just can't stand up to the like of the 77W & 359/J where it counts.

Should be great in the Freight market at least...

Quoting abba (Reply 83):

With the growth in mega cities in the world in areas where the economy is also growing fast the VLAs has a safe future.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. A lot of factors, like slot restrictions, were creating an artificial situation where Quad VLAs had "safe" markets. But as those get pulled, it becomes clear that frequency really does rule the day. If youw ant, look at what's happening in the NYC - LON market as a good example. This was dominated by 747s for quite a while, and while there still are a few present, namely with BA, the vast majority of seats going out on that one are indeed twins.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 80):

The issue I have with this is the notion that the 77W and A350-1000 are being bought as "744 replacements"...
There is no question in my mind that the long term trend is for passenger volume growth to continue to dramatically outstrip GDP growth.
I see a lot of, indeed the bulk of, 77W's and A350-1000 sized "350 seaters" naturally replacing the 772/A340 sized "300 seaters", rather than the 744 per se.


But a lot of that volume really is going for frequency.

Part of what makes the 77W so popular is that it really can do both ends very well. Indeed, many airlines are using it for what was once solid 744 territory (an evening at LAX would make this pretty apparent). Even at a "mere" 350 seats, that's already as much or more than most operators placed on their 744s in the 1st place. At the extreme, one can look at ANA & KLM to see that 77Ws are actually doing more than 744s as well. I think it is entirely fair to categorize a 77W as a 744 replacement.

I think the real reason we don't see this on an even greater scale is that simply put, the 744s were a huge investment in and of themselves. As most of them are now paid off or close to it, as long as they are not drastically more expensive to operate than a 77W, they'll stick around a little longer. But even then, we have airlines like BA who are indeed tip-toeing towards replacing their 744s with 77Ws. In those cases, yeah it will take a while, but I think it will still go that way in the end, with a few 380s replacing the more dense routings. Unfortunately, I just do not see the 748i really getting a foothold there.

On the flip side, yes, we do see a lot of SQ type configurations of around 280 seats or fewer, which presumably are focusing on more of a premium market. But even there, it's likely that they did the same with their 744s.

In any case, I do not see the 748i as a real 744 replacement. There's no question it can do the job, but for that job the 77W can do it for less operating cost, and the 380 can do it at greater efficiency (though I'll always maintain at higher risk). The 748i will really have to find its own (and likely new) place in the world to get by.

Like I said above, I think if CX goes for a Quad VLA (and I haven't seen anything to say the will for sure), I do believe the 748i will get the job, but only because the availability is certainly better, and it would fit into CX's current model just a little better (though not much) than the 388.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-03 00:08:27 and read 20281 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
I do believe the 748i will get the job, but only because the availability is certainly better

You keep saying this without offering anything by way of support. IF CX ordered VLAs today, when would they get 748s vs A380s? Airbus has a number of orders on its books that I don't think will be delivered, so I suspect they could find reasonable delivery slots for a major new customer anyway.

Ordering VLAs is a 20 to 30-year decision - I don't believe availability will be the deciding factor.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-03 00:40:13 and read 20249 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
But a lot of that volume really is going for frequency. Part of what makes the 77W so popular is that it really can do both ends very well.

I'm not sure how many A380's EK send to LHR every day, but it's definitely more than 1.....  

Don't fall into the trap everyone else does of simplifying the market just to suit an argument....

Rgds

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-03 01:03:08 and read 20170 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 101):
I'm not sure how many A380's EK send to LHR every day, but it's definitely more than 1.....

Just the five. Which completely supports the frequency vs capacity argument. Oh wait...   

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: gemuser
Posted 2013-02-03 02:16:28 and read 19920 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
I wouldn't be so sure of that. A lot of factors, like slot restrictions, were creating an artificial situation where Quad VLAs had "safe" markets. But as those get pulled, it becomes clear that frequency really does rule the day

Two points:
1) What do you mean by "as those get pulled"? Can you give an example where slot restrictions have been lifted?
2) In your comments about frequency you forget to add in the effect of distance. While frequency is certainly important for shorter flights, say under 8-10 hours but beyond that the equation changes.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-03 02:28:16 and read 19877 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 76):
Perhaps some nostalgia at Boeing also played a role in the offering of the i?

I have no reason to believe that the business case for the 747-8 program as a whole is any less sound than that of the A380. The fact of the 747-8i not selling as well as Boeing would have liked is not in and of itself evidence of a poor business decision to launch the 747-8 program (particularly the -8i), but rather that they had overestimated the sales performance of the 747-8i.

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years. The opportunity arose with the advent of the GEnx engines for Boeing to significantly update the 747 for the first time in 20 years. I do not believe they did so because of "nostalgia", but because there was a demand for it, and the technology became available with which Boeing could proceed to build it.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 80):
I see a lot of, indeed the bulk of, 77W's and A350-1000 sized "350 seaters" naturally replacing the 772/A340 sized "300 seaters", rather than the 744 per se.

That may be true at some airlines, but that is not necessarily the case at CX. While the 777-300ERs have indeed replaced A340-300s on some North Amercian routes, they have also replaced the 747-400s on others. For example, prior to the introduction of the 777-300ER in CX's fleet, HKG-YVR was operated by a 744 and a 343; while today that route is flown by 2 x 777-300ERs. 777-300ERs have also replaced 747-400s at LAX, SFO, and LHR, to name but a few.

The bulk of CX's 777-300ERs have been bought as 747-400 replacements. I recall that CX has said as much in the past.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
Is that a Paine Field add-on you have there? Looks neat.

I honestly have no idea. I just searched for a CX 747-8 Intercontinental in Google Image search and up it popped  
Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
if CX goes for a Quad VLA (and I haven't seen anything to say the will for sure),


  

Quoted for emphasis. It is not yet a foregone conclusion that CX will order either the A380 or the 747-8. They're evaluating the feasibility of adding one, both, or neither of these aircraft types into their fleet.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: RickNRoll
Posted 2013-02-03 02:54:57 and read 19776 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 74):

Its becoming a myth here that the 748 has such bad economics.

It's not that so much as the fact that whole package doesn't seem to fit many customers needs. The 77W is still selling like hotcakes, in contrast.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: zeke
Posted 2013-02-03 03:22:04 and read 19762 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years.

Boeing has been offering larger 747s to airlines since the 1970s, it was not LH pushing them as you suggest.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-03 03:26:59 and read 19686 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
I wouldn't be so sure of that. A lot of factors, like slot restrictions, were creating an artificial situation where Quad VLAs had "safe" markets. But as those get pulled, it becomes clear that frequency really does rule the day. If youw ant, look at what's happening in the NYC - LON market as a good example. This was dominated by 747s for quite a while, and while there still are a few present, namely with BA, the vast majority of seats going out on that one are indeed twins.


That is the classic example always used - however it is irrelevant in this context as LHR-NYC does not qualify as a long intercontinental route. Mid rage, is what is it - and therefore, you can still have higher frequency without having to either leave too early in the morning or have to arrive too late at night and in both cases not having connecting flights or access to the public transport system.

Relevant from NYC would be Hong Kong, Korea or Japan. From London it would not be US East but Vest Coast.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-03 03:44:17 and read 19618 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
If youw ant, look at what's happening in the NYC - LON market as a good example. This was dominated by 747s for quite a while, and while there still are a few present, namely with BA, the vast majority of seats going out on that one are indeed twins.

AA will be up-gauging to the 77W and BA to the A380 on that specific route. Frequency AND capacity again.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXfirst
Posted 2013-02-03 04:45:35 and read 19383 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
Not a great question to ask, since Boeing has been pretty clear that they are holding to a minimum amount of profit per 748 sold. Boeing has said that they have been asked to part with 748s for "next to nothing" and have said no.

Is this as true today? I would think Boeing would love the positive PR of a quality carrier like CX choosing the 748i over the A388 (which for many would seem like a surprising move) especially after all the negative PR the 788 program has created. Right now, Boeing shares could do with a boost. However, Airbus won't let that happen too easily.

I'm not saying Boeing give them away for free, but a purchase from CX could get much of the industry confident in Boeing again.

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 86):
If you can't buy 767's do you want to explain then how 20 767-300Er's have been ordered in the last three years? Just because nobody is buying them doesn't mean they can't be built.

Still proves the point though. Airlines have in recent years bought larger widebodies, as evidenced by the lack of 767's sales and the fact that the new programs coming into fruition are seemingly larger than what they replace (787 v 767, A350 v A330/40, 748 v 744, 777-8/9X v 77W).

I would love to CX go with either. I do love the A380 and enjoy flying it, and would love to see CX order it. However, I see this as one of Boeing's last opportunities, if not the last, to get a quality carrier on-board, and we'll see how much they want the order. Perhaps this is the reason the decision is taking so long, CX might see value in an A380 future, but Boeing keeps making them reconsider.

-CXfirst

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-03 04:56:01 and read 19336 times.

Only SAA has really the need for a quad and smaller than a A380, I guess if even the wont go for the 748 after the A346 the 748i is about as dead as it can be.

The VLA market is tiny anyway, maybe the 748i is mostly to keep Airbus honest in pricing, I hope so anyway.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-03 05:38:55 and read 19183 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 110):
maybe the 748i is mostly to keep Airbus honest in pricing

Pricing is always honest, but based on market circumstances.   And still it is up to the customers to decide if they will buy an airplane or not. In reverse you could say that the A380 forced Boeing to give up their decades long position with "dishonest" pricing on the B747 when there was no realistic alternative there.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-03 06:47:19 and read 18997 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):
I have no reason to believe that the business case for the 747-8 program as a whole is any less sound than that of the A380. The fact of the 747-8i not selling as well as Boeing would have liked is not in and of itself evidence of a poor business decision to launch the 747-8 program (particularly the -8i), but rather that they had overestimated the sales performance of the 747-8i.

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years. The opportunity arose with the advent of the GEnx engines for Boeing to significantly update the 747 for the first time in 20 years. I do not believe they did so because of "nostalgia", but because there was a demand for it, and the technology became available with which Boeing could proceed to build it.



I have read the above several times now - and I am simply not getting your point. Was there a demand - or was there not a demand for the 748i?
If Boeing saw a demand that was not there, how can that be the basis for a good business decision? (It is in my book
the very definition of how to make a bad business decision!).

Sorry - you have to straighten up your logic a great deal if you want to make any sense.

Personally, I still believe that 748 was a good idea because of the F. Whether the i-model makes sense I highly doubt. Selling nothing but launch models makes not much sense as they used to be heavy discounted.

As to the 380 it is in overall trouble beating the bank. Not because of a lack of demand (Airbus has already now sold what they estimated that they needed to sell in order for them to make the program break even) but because of a less than ideal program execution. However, such a bad fate has also hit others in the industry who's recent offerings will likely have to wait even longer than the 380 to beat the bank....'

The 380 share the same problems as the 787 - which in turn is of an entirely different nature than the problems facing the 748i.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-02-03 06:55:45 and read 18967 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 112):
I have read the above several times now - and I am simply not getting your point. Was there a demand - or was there not a demand for the 748i?
If Boeing saw a demand that was not there, how can that be the basis for a good business decision? (It is in my book
the very definition of how to make a bad business decision!).

My two cents on this. B knew there would be demand for the 747-8F, doing the -8I was a reasonable decision given most of the investment for the -F was going to happen. It would also "steal" A380 sales and provide something with capacity between the 77W/A346 and A380. Stil too early to say how profitable or unprofitable the program will be but it wasn't a wild as... idea at the time.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-03 07:09:58 and read 18889 times.

The i model is very close to the F model, a stretched upper deck, some passenger systems mostly of the 400 are added, a tail tank when that is fixed. Very few things differ the F from the i, a very small expense in total.

The 747 mostly enjoyed an advantage of not having big twins in its golden days, this is not the same market anymore. The A380 has competitors that the 747 did not have. Many were really bought for the range over capacity. That all changed with the A340 and later the 777s.

Big twins are far more flexible in the shortsighted global economy.

The future for the A380 will get even harder with the A351 entering the market.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-03 07:59:07 and read 18764 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 112):
I have read the above several times now - and I am simply not getting your point.

I apologise for the badly worded post.

The point I was trying to get at is simply that at the time of the program launch, Boeing's market research has shown that there was a high enough demand for the type for the program to be justified. That, to me, means that the decision to launch was entirely justifiable at the time, and thus I do not believe that they were guided by a sense of "nostalgia", as you suggest.

If Boeing's market research had shown that there was no interest in the type yet they chose to launch it anyway in the hope that the sales would magically materialise, then I'd call it a bad business decision. The fact that the market for the 747-8i didn't pan out as Boeing had predicted isn't prima facie evidence of bad decision making.

I think we should not look at these sorts of decisions with the benefit of hindsight. If we're going to assess whether Boeing made the right call to launch the 747-8, we should look at it from Boeing's point of view with the information they had at the time of the decision.

[Edited 2013-02-03 08:05:44]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-03 08:22:14 and read 18723 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 100):
IF CX ordered VLAs today, when would they get 748s vs A380s?

747-8 Intercontinental delivery positions are evidently available this year.

QF deferred some 2014 deliveries to 2018-2022 and HX was said to be looking at them before they placed their order. Now that HX is considering canceling their A380 order due to poor market conditions, those slots might free up again (if HX was assigned them).



Quoting CXfirst (Reply 109):
I would think Boeing would love the positive PR of a quality carrier like CX choosing the 748i over the A388 (which for many would seem like a surprising move) especially after all the negative PR the 788 program has created.

If CX chose it only because Boeing offered it for significantly less than Airbus was willing to offer an A380, I am not sure how much of a vote of confidence that is...

[Edited 2013-02-03 08:32:55]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: BestWestern
Posted 2013-02-03 08:35:26 and read 18643 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 116):
If CX chose it only because Boeing offered it for significantly less than Airbus was willing to offer an A380, I am not sure how much of a vote of confidence that is...

Its a multi billion dollar vote of confidence.

In my opinion, the reason why the A380 and 748i arent selling is because the
1) global economies are soft
2) cash on hand is critical in times of crisis
3) loans are increasingly expensive to fund.
4) nobody ever got fired ordering a 77W.

I don't buy this Boeing wont discount the aircraft anet myth.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-03 08:44:32 and read 18579 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 115):
The point I was trying to get at is simply that at the time of the program launch, Boeing's market research has shown that there was a high enough demand for the type for the program to be justified. That, to me, means that the decision to launch was entirely justifiable at the time, and thus I do not believe that they were guided by a sense of "nostalgia", as you suggest.



Now if that is what you are trying to say, then you should also admit that the problems facing the 380 and the 748i in terms of ROI for their respective OEMs are of an entirely different nature. Boeing seriously misjudged the demand for the 748i. They saw a demand that did not materialise (at least not yet). Whether they could have seen better - I shall not judge.

However, what Airbus didn't see was the problems they would face in the implementation of their program. They got the demand more or less right getting the number of orders they would need to get to break even as far as their original market forecast and business case indicated. In that sense, the 380 is playing the same ball game as the 787. Their business case was right - their program implementation wasn't. And that will cost them quite a few bucks. Claiming that there is no market for a VLA is as such plain nonsense.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-03 08:55:23 and read 18559 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 101):
Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
But a lot of that volume really is going for frequency. Part of what makes the 77W so popular is that it really can do both ends very well.

I'm not sure how many A380's EK send to LHR every day, but it's definitely more than 1.....

Don't fall into the trap everyone else does of simplifying the market just to suit an argument....

A question I find interesting is how many pax on those EK A380 LHR flights are new market entrants versus those who would have flown on AI/SQ/QF/CX/BA 744s in their heyday.

Another interesting question is how many people aren't on EK A380s to LHR because they are on EK's 777Ws to MAN.

Quoting zeke (Reply 106):
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years.

Boeing has been offering larger 747s to airlines since the 1970s, it was not LH pushing them as you suggest.

Why can't it be both?

The early attempts didn't pan out because there wasn't enough demand (both actual and anticipated) for Boeing to be able to project a profit. By the time we get to the 748F/i time frame we have increased demand and lower development cost. The lower development cost comes from Boeing deciding to launch a 767 replacement and thus get a much more fuel efficient engine at a low development cost, which was not the case on all the earlier 747 derivatives. The increased demand indeed came via LH, which is shown by the fact that Boeing didn't launch the 748i till they had the LH order in hand.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-03 10:35:45 and read 18351 times.

I need to preface this by noting that I'm one of the biggest supporters of the A380 program and biggest detractors of the 747-8 on the forum. So the following comments are not presented with the intent of trying to make a case against the A380, but instead to argue against opinions I do not agree with.



Quoting abba (Reply 118):
Now if that is what you are trying to say, then you should also admit that the problems facing the 380 and the 748i in terms of ROI for their respective OEMs are of an entirely different nature. Boeing seriously misjudged the demand for the 748i. They saw a demand that did not materialise (at least not yet). Whether they could have seen better - I shall not judge.

Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.



Quoting abba (Reply 118):
They got the demand more or less right getting the number of orders they would need to get to break even as far as their original market forecast and business case indicated.

Sure, they could have broken even with the current sales if they'd executed perfectly to plan, but you don't invest ten figures with the intent to break even. They'd also have pretty much delivered their backlog now so they'd have an idle FAL in TLS.



Quoting abba (Reply 118):
In that sense, the 380 is playing the same ball game as the 787. Their business case was right - their program implementation wasn't.

The 747-8's business case has certainly been hurt by failures in program execution. If Airbus only needed 250 sales to break even on a ~9 billion Euro investment, you can be sure Boeing didn't need anywhere near that for what would have been a USD ~2 billion investment. Program delays have increased that cost by over 50% and likely closer to 100% and has pushed the program sufficiently into the black that Boeing right now does not believe they will break even on it (it's in a Forward Loss position in terms of the Program Accounting).

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: dc1030cf
Posted 2013-02-03 11:37:08 and read 18120 times.

Will this predicted upcoming order from Cathay be the "Significant new order" that John Leahy was saying ?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-03 11:56:06 and read 18153 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 119):
Another interesting question is how many people aren't on EK A380s to LHR because they are on EK's 777Ws to MAN.

Or Ek's A380's to MAN even .....   

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.

Er, scuse me. The A380's business case was based on a forecast of selling 750 over 20 years (which I understand to have been about 300 in the 1st decade and 450 in the 2nd), so I've no idea how "4 figures" got tossed into the equation.

They've certainly not hit the rate they projected up to now, but they're near enough for the programme and ramp up delays to have been at least as big, if not bigger, factor than underlying market demand.

I could argue they've had 10 years of "uninterrupted" sales, if you strip out about 3 years for the delays, and in that time sold 262 - just over 10% down on the 300 target for the 1st decade.

Rgds

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-03 12:18:55 and read 18023 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 122):
The A380's business case was based on a forecast of selling 750 over 20 years (which I understand to have been about 300 in the 1st decade and 450 in the 2nd), so I've no idea how "4 figures" got tossed into the equation.

Fair enough. Airbus consistently predicts ~1700 large aircraft sales in their 20 year forecasts so that is what I was going off of.

[Edited 2013-02-03 12:41:06]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-03 12:20:14 and read 17972 times.

That vast cabin outfit must eat into profit for sure, even this far after EIS, I see no reason to buy EADS stock because of the A380..

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-02-03 12:22:42 and read 17970 times.

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 109):

I'm not saying Boeing give them away for free, but a purchase from CX could get much of the industry confident in Boeing again.

I do not think a single purchase will have much impact on Boeing's credibility one way or the other. What happens with the 787 is far more important.

As to CX buying 748i's or A380's, I would say Boeing has the advantage of being able to offer quicker delivery and commonality with the 748F's that CX already has. Airbus, on the other hand, has a plane that has clearly been shown to be a superior passenger plane in every head to head competition so far. Much as I would like to see the 748i win this one, I suspect that they will go with the A380 for the same reasons as everyone else has. I have often said that I expect the A380 to win most of the pax VLA sales, while at the same time the 748F will win all of the VLA freighter sales. I do not think that the commonality issue will be enough to win the day for Boeing in this case, as it would really only apply to maintenance, as I doubt very much that crews are intermixed between pax and freight. CX is a large enough airline that the added expense of another type will be overcome by operational savings, IMHO.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: yyz717
Posted 2013-02-03 12:32:35 and read 17957 times.

A CX 748i order would a add a much needed boost to the program. Boeing must aim to win this order.

Quoting na (Reply 3):
LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

Umm no. The 343 and 346 are very inefficient. Both need replacing. LH should have ordered the 77W (and they probably privately admit this).

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-02-03 12:43:40 and read 18010 times.

I think in the end, commonality with the 747-8F will be why CX will buy the 747-8I to replace the 747-400 on their busiest routes. They will be supplemented by more 777-300ER's.

(Someone mentioned LH needing to replace the A340-300's. My guess is that LH is looking at trading their A343 fleet with a fleet of A350XWB-900's--slightly more cargo/pax capacity and over 8,000 nm range.)

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-03 12:51:28 and read 18032 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
The 343 and 346 are very inefficient.
VERY inefficient? While the A346 is certainy less efficient than the 77W, it has better payload/range than the 744 and burns considerably less fuel doing it. I don't think I've ever heard anyone describe the 744 as "very inefficient".   

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: pnwtraveler
Posted 2013-02-03 13:22:45 and read 17806 times.

What so many people fail to understand is risk management. It is one thing to look at volumes of aircraft flying a particular route and then presuppose one larger aircraft can just be slotted in and take the place of two or more flights. The larger the aircraft the more difficult it is to simply move to another route when a particular route goes soft. Do you cancel flights leaving slots unused, and have your customers migrate to more convenient flights? Given a 4 hour wait for an A380 and flying in 30 minutes on a 77W, there is no question what most North American and other businessmen will choose. Anet doesn't represent a fair public opinion base because people on this site will make decisions very differently than the general flying public. Flying around a VLA during a soft period makes a huge hit on the bottom line.

CX will know how stable certain markets are. They will analyze what flexibility they can expect with loads. They will cost carefully how much an aircraft will be worth. For example when second hand EK A380's start flooding into the market, what happens to the resale value of the A380's in your fleet. They will look at what saving would result in putting B748i's in the fleet with commonality with the 748F's. There will be thousands of pages of analysis.

The whole VLA arena is far softer than particularly Airbus but also even Boeing with their lower expectations, had counted on. That is for now. It could be in another 5 or 10 years the whole market will be turned on its head and there will be VLA orders dropping right left and centre. Until then however the company has to do what makes sense for them and given the airline company failures and mergers recently, the market is anything but stable. Better to give up some potential profit and be secure as a company, than take high risks and bankrupt one.

CX will know exactly what risks they are taking with either aircraft. Including converting a 748i into a 748cf. I will not be surprised for them to say it is still not the right time to order a VLA.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-03 13:37:17 and read 17793 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 123):
Fair enough. Airbus consistently predicts ~1700 large aircraft sales in their 20 year forecasts so that is what I was going off of.

Again, Airbus's 2012 GMF shows a forecast of 1 332 "Large Aircraft".
Which by dint of being defined as 400 seats and above clearly includes competitors such as the 748i and prospective 777-9X, and thus clearly isn't and never was, intended to imply they were all A380's

To my knowledge they've never ever forecasted 1 700 x 400+ seaters in a 20 year period.

That Airbus have "SERIOUSLY misjudged demand for the A380" is another one of those A-net myths that just doesn't stand a decent scruitiny.

Have they "misjudged" it?
It's a FORECAST for christ's sake, not an exercise in 10 decimal places accuracy.

Can I suggest we move on?
The numerical misrepresentations are proving a tad too much for my bed-time patience after a long day.
My Bad. It will be better tomorrow  

Rgds

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-03 13:42:43 and read 17739 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 130):
Can I suggest we move on?

Yes, as the discussion is off-topic to the thread, anyway, and I really should be focusing on the new episode of Wonders of Life right now.  

[Edited 2013-02-03 13:45:21]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-03 13:48:47 and read 17703 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 131):
I really should be focusing on the new episode of Wonders of Life right now.

That sounds like top advice   

Rgds

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: yyz717
Posted 2013-02-03 13:52:43 and read 17705 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
The 343 and 346 are very inefficient.
VERY inefficient? While the A346 is certainy less efficient than the 77W, it has better payload/range than the 744 and burns considerably less fuel doing it.

And yet Airbus closed the A346 line due to a lack of orders.....while the 777 line (mostly 77W orders) is at 8.3/month. Whatever the attributes of the 346, the 77W killed it. Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 129):
The whole VLA arena is far softer than particularly Airbus but also even Boeing with their lower expectations, had counted on. That is for now. It could be in another 5 or 10 years the whole market will be turned on its head and there will be VLA orders dropping right left and centre.

Good points. The question is whether the VLA market "downturn" is due to the world economy or a restructuring of the market prefering smaller aircraft with more frequencies (the latter being Boeing's argument)? Or a mix of the 2? Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 129):
I will not be surprised for them to say it is still not the right time to order a VLA.

Could be. As TK just seem to have decided by ordering more 77W and 333 disavowing their recent interest in a VLA.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-03 13:53:00 and read 17699 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 127):
My guess is that LH is looking at trading their A343 fleet with a fleet of A350XWB-900's--slightly more cargo/pax capacity and over 8,000 nm range.)

LH like all the European carriers have no use for more than about 6500nm . So I don't see a need for them to be buying range.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Pihero
Posted 2013-02-03 14:17:24 and read 17573 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 124):
I see no reason to buy EADS stock because of the A380..

Your loss : I bought at 13 euros on the 380 delays... it's now over 35...
 

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-03 14:19:05 and read 17588 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
The 343 and 346 are very inefficient

Again this stupid and false A-net myth.  .

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
VERY inefficient? While the A346 is certainly less efficient than the 77W, it has better payload/range than the 744 and burns considerably less fuel doing it.

True. But those are facts, and not the popular myth.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

No, they made the perfect decision for their fleet based on their network and the type of loads they carry (mix passengers/cargo). And LH is one of the few profit-making airlines. Where many airlines who fly the B77W have made losses.

Now that fact has nothing to do with the planes themselves, but with the way the airline runs them and can fill them. Please stop these false A-net believes about LH and her fleet which are way off-topic anyway.

CX is a company quite comparable to LH (and KE). Many passengers, but also lots of cargo. And a mixed fleet of passengers airliners and freithers. So the choice they might be making must be viewed with a broader view then a focus on the A380 or the B748i alone.

By mixing up passenger and freighter capacities the deficit of the one airliner can be made up with another airliners strong points, and vice versa. I am sure the operational fleet planners at CX are quite busy making all kinds of such analysis and will provide the decision makers with the correct numbers and possibilities. And even that will not guarantee that CX will order either or both of these beautiful and mighty 4-holers. But I hope they will, and expect them to choose the A380 if they are going to order an aircraft from the VLA category.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-03 14:24:17 and read 17602 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

At the time LH ordered the A340-600, the 777-300ER was still in development as the "777-300X" and was not scheduled to EIS for a number of years after LH would take delivery of their first A340-600s.

[Edited 2013-02-03 14:26:07]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-03 14:50:43 and read 17466 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 124):
That vast cabin outfit must eat into profit for sure, even this far after EIS, I see no reason to buy EADS stock because of the A380..

If you cared to look at how EADS stock has developed in the last year you would find that currently is actually a pretty bad point in time to buy anyway, given the stock is at (or near) an all-time high.
Which also means that most analysts and investors don't quite concur with your valuation of the company.

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 109):
I'm not saying Boeing give them away for free, but a purchase from CX could get much of the industry confident in Boeing again.

Boeing got LH as a launch customer, a well-respected carrier that hadn't placed any significant orders with Boeing (other than converting single-digit options) since 1989. A lot of people said this was an unexpected boost to the programme, and a lot of people - Boeing included - have kept saying that new 747-8i orders were imminent. Alas, that hasn't really happened. So far, they've sold fewer 747-8i in total to airline customers than Airbus sold A380s in each of the years 2007 and 2010...
My point being that I don't think that an order from CX would make the industry confident in the 747-8i - and by extension, nor do I think that CX will order the 747-8i to begin with. Make no mistake - the 747-8F is a tremendous freighter, but I don't see much space for the pax version of the 747-8. Particularly once Boeing launches the 777-9X, which everybody expects to happen, and for which CX would be a prime candidate.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
A CX 748i order would a add a much needed boost to the program. Boeing must aim to win this order.

I'm sure Boeing aim to win every 747-8i RFP they get.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
And yet Airbus closed the A346 line due to a lack of orders.....while the 777 line (mostly 77W orders) is at 8.3/month. Whatever the attributes of the 346, the 77W killed it. Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

The 77W killed the A346, yes. But that still does not make the A346 very inefficient, and LH made no more of a bad fleet decision with it than they did with the 747-8i or DL and CO did with the 767-400ER (which got killed in the marketplace by the A330). I'm sure all of these planes work quite well for the airlines involved, even if there are more efficient airplanes out there that got a bigger marketshare.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

I don't agree with the last part of your statement. The fact that there are four types in a market segment that would fit the replacement of 747-400 does not automatically guarantee that all four of them are going to get significant orders.
Witness the MD-11, which played in the same category as the A343 and 772 and yet got almost 100 fewer orders for its pax version than even the A343, which wasn't quite Airbus' biggest seller, either.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Could be. As TK just seem to have decided by ordering more 77W and 333 disavowing their recent interest in a VLA.

Last I read, only two weeks ago, they are still in negotiations with Boeing and Airbus regarding a potential VLA order - although they have stated that they are going to order 77W/A330 (and probably A320neo/737MAX) first, before placing a any VLA order.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: travelhound
Posted 2013-02-03 15:27:06 and read 17331 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 112):
As to the 380 it is in overall trouble beating the bank. Not because of a lack of demand (Airbus has already now sold what they estimated that they needed to sell in order for them to make the program break even) but because of a less than ideal program execution. However, such a bad fate has also hit others in the industry who's recent offerings will likely have to wait even longer than the 380 to beat the bank....'

I think it's a fair argument to suggest the A380 program has not reached it's target sales goals and that's it's initial break even of 250 aircraft was somewhat optimistic.

On the same point the difference between a successful program could've had more to do with changing market conditions rather then optimistic forecasting.

With the current consolidation of the airline industry the fortunes of the A380 could change somewhat. Where two airlines flying the same route could not make the business case for the A380 work, the same two airlines acting as "partners" may find the A380 as a logical decision.

The market place is for ever changing and as such the success of the A380 and 748i will always be dependent on these conditions.

It will be interesting to see if CX order a VLA and if they do which one. It will give us a small glimpse of what we could expect in the future.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 117):
I don't buy this Boeing wont discount the aircraft anet myth.

Boeing have made comments in the past stating they could have sold more 748i's, but haven't because they weren't willing to discount the plane. There is some (maybe not solid) basis to this myth.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-03 15:30:11 and read 17344 times.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 139):
Boeing have made comments in the past stating they could have sold more 748i's, but haven't because they weren't willing to discount the plane.

Boeing is willing to discount - just not to the level some possible customers wanted in years past.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: RickNRoll
Posted 2013-02-03 16:10:51 and read 17258 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
And yet Airbus closed the A346 line due to a lack of orders.....while the 777 line (mostly 77W orders) is at 8.3/month. Whatever the attributes of the 346, the 77W killed it. Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346. ... Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

There's your answer. The A34X was a good plane, but it arrived at the wrong time, just when engine technology made the 'super' twin viable. The difference was enough that you wouldn't buy a new one, but if you owned it you could still turn a profit till you didn't need it any more. Hence the 744's that are also still flying.

So it is with the A380 vs 748i vs 77W. The A380 has the edge if you want bigger, the 77W has the edge if you want smaller, both will retain their resale value better than the 748i.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-02-03 17:44:25 and read 17065 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 134):
LH like all the European carriers have no use for more than about 6500nm . So I don't see a need for them to be buying range.

True, but the lower fuel burn of the A350XWB-900 makes it attractive to LH to fly from FRA/MUC to long-range international destinations that need lesser passenger capacity. It would certainly make sense for LH to use the A359 on routes to eastern Asia that doesn't include NRT, ICN, PEK, HKG, and SIN.

While it would be nice for CX to get the A380-800, the sheer size of the plane and its non-commonality with other parts of the CX fleet could be an issue. Sure, it could be used on the HKG-LHR and HKG-LAX routes (maybe HKG-SFO eventually), but that may not justify buying the plane in the first place. The 747-8I would add some capacity on the HKG-SFO/LAX/LHR route, and also would share a lot of commonality with the 747-8F freighters now in CX service.

[Edited 2013-02-03 17:47:36]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-02-03 18:11:19 and read 16985 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 137):
At the time LH ordered the A340-600, the 777-300ER was still in development as the "777-300X" and was not scheduled to EIS for a number of years after LH would take delivery of their first A340-600s.

What's more, nobody (including Boeing) had any idea at the time how good the 77W was going to be. I believe that when the 77W was under development the target was to beat the A346, but nobody believed that it would beat it by the margin that it actually did. LH was then caught in a bind; you don't just ditch two to three year old airliners; they still make money and LH had spent huge amounts of money to buy them. And adding another type would probably have cost more than the operational savings; hence their top-up order of A346's. How many of you have bought a new computer, only to have a much better or cheaper model come out a few months later? I still remember spending $1000 to get 32 meg of memory; I thought at the time that memory prices had reached a plateau, but I was wrong. Within a year I could have bought the same for $200. But I had already spent my money, and so I made the best of it; LH did the same.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-03 18:39:38 and read 16904 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 118):
then you should also admit that the problems facing the 380 and the 748i in terms of ROI for their respective OEMs are of an entirely different nature.

I don't believe I have ever claimed otherwise.

Quoting abba (Reply 118):
Claiming that there is no market for a VLA is as such plain nonsense.

I don't think I've ever said that either. What I did say is that the market for quad engined VLAs is declining due to the advent of large long haul twins. I also said that there is no guarantee that CX will order either the A380 or the 747-8i. But that does not translate to "no market for a VLA". Evidently there is - just not a very big one.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
I don't think I've ever heard anyone describe the 744 as "very inefficient".

In this day and age, it is very inefficient. CX are accelerating its retirement schedule and moved them off long haul North American and some European routes in favour of 777-300ERs.

[Edited 2013-02-03 18:41:08]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: yyz717
Posted 2013-02-03 19:10:02 and read 16833 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 138):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
A CX 748i order would a add a much needed boost to the program. Boeing must aim to win this order.


I'm sure Boeing aim to win every 747-8i RFP they get.

I mean perhaps even more aggressively than Boeing would otherwise, in order to snag a marquee customer for a slow selling aircraft.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 138):
My point being that I don't think that an order from CX would make the industry confident in the 747-8i - and by extension, nor do I think that CX will order the 747-8i to begin with.

I disagree. CX is one of the world's most respected and watched carriers. It is a leader and innovator in many ways. A 748i order will boost confidence in the model.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 138):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

I don't agree with the last part of your statement. The fact that there are four types in a market segment that would fit the replacement of 747-400 does not automatically guarantee that all four of them are going to get significant orders.

Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. Air traffic on a worldwide basis continues to grow and as the world economy shakes off the current recession and grows faster, today's 77W routes may warrant the 748i or 388 in 5-10 years, at which time hundreds of 744's will still need replacing. All WB and VLA models could benefit from this growth and replacement cycle.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: airlinebuilder
Posted 2013-02-03 20:40:45 and read 16674 times.

in conclusion, regardless if CX will purchase the B748i or the A380, at the end of the day we all have to accept the fact that the A380 is the new definition of a VLA and has remarkably set the benchmark.

So there will be only two types of VLA aircrafts the A380 and others aka the first being the A380 and in second place are all other aircraft.

P.S. never been an A380 fan but after objectively following studying and observing the aircraft since its EIS, what do you know.....I have been won over. ")

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: BestWestern
Posted 2013-02-03 20:41:27 and read 16689 times.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 139):
Boeing have made comments in the past stating they could have sold more 748i's, but haven't because they weren't willing to discount the plane.

That sounds like a convenient PR excuse for not selling the aircraft, whilst putting down the competition at the same time.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 140):
just not to the level some possible customers wanted in years past.

Stitch, you previously claimed that the 748i was a cheap (in comparison) enhancement to the 744 - why then is the 748 such bad value in the eyes of airlines (just looking at its sales record) if its development costs were so low.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: brons2
Posted 2013-02-03 21:45:19 and read 16579 times.

A388 all the way. The 748i is yesterday's widebody. 17.2" seats, no thanks.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-03 23:13:09 and read 16342 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Sure, they could have broken even with the current sales if they'd executed perfectly to plan, but you don't invest ten figures with the intent to break even. They'd also have pretty much delivered their backlog now so they'd have an idle FAL in TLS.



So you imagine that the plan for the 380 was that when they got the orders they needed for the program to break even then they would have closed their books for new orders (they should have done so by now if they had executed the program according to plan)? If you believe otherwise, your argument above makes no sense.

At their website, Airbus lists 262 orders for the 380 of which 97 are listed as delivered. That means that we have to wait more than 8 years with a production rate of 20 pa before we could get one...

Hardly an idle FAL....

I could even see an argument for Airbus to actually increase their production.

http://www.airbus.com/company/market/orders-deliveries/

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.



We don't know for several reasons. One being that the backlog is far too long to know what the real demand might be. In the case of CX this might be the best selling argument for the 748i. Avability is the main challenge facing the 380 in competition with the 748i.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 139):
On the same point the difference between a successful program could've had more to do with changing market conditions rather then optimistic forecasting.


Market condition changes all the time. We are in a major economic crises right now where money are very difficult to borrow. That the 380 can be sold under the present conditions at all is actually rather amazing.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-04 02:01:25 and read 15875 times.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 145):
I disagree. CX is one of the world's most respected and watched carriers. It is a leader and innovator in many ways. A 748i order will boost confidence in the model.

All of this would be equally valid if you substituted CX with LH in your statement - and yet, LH's order for the 747-8i obviously hasn't convinced too many people to order the type.
Incidentally, LH and CX were also both early customers for the A340-600 - but this still didn't boost market confidence in the type enough to make it a good seller against the clearly superior 77W.
I think 747-8i vs. A380 is the same story, but with roles between A and B reversed; and I think that would still be the case if CX did indeed order the 747-8i - which I am 75% sure they are not going to do.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 146):
in conclusion, regardless if CX will purchase the B748i or the A380, at the end of the day we all have to accept the fact that the A380 is the new definition of a VLA and has remarkably set the benchmark.

  

Quoting abba (Reply 149):
At their website, Airbus lists 262 orders for the 380 of which 97 are listed as delivered. That means that we have to wait more than 8 years with a production rate of 20 pa before we could get one...

Except that
a) the current production rate is 30/year
b) slots for existing orders aren't all chock-a-block
So you could definitely get an A380 before 2021 if you order it today. I think Leahy mentioned recently that the earliest A380 delivery slots were around 2015/16. Obviously still not the same as ordering an A330 or 747-8i and having it delivered next year.

Quoting abba (Reply 149):
We don't know for several reasons. One being that the backlog is far too long to know what the real demand might be. In the case of CX this might be the best selling argument for the 748i. Avability is the main challenge facing the 380 in competition with the 748i.

While I don't agree that the availability gap between the A380 and 747-8i is as big as you suggest, I would actually agree that availability seems to be the main thing in the 747-8i's favour at this point.
Then again, it has been for a while now, and you could argue that this is chiefly because of a lack of demand for the 747-8i, meaning there is a good reason why 747-8i slots aren't more sought-after than they are.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: art
Posted 2013-02-04 03:14:43 and read 15657 times.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 129):
Given a 4 hour wait for an A380 and flying in 30 minutes on a 77W, there is no question what most North American and other businessmen will choose.

Taking it a bit far, isn't it? You can't replace 8 x 777 flights per 4 hour period with 1 x A380 flight per 4 hour period and offer the same number of seats. Wouldn't it be more like 5/6 x A380 to replace 8 x 777 flights?

Quoting abba (Reply 149):
At their website, Airbus lists 262 orders for the 380 of which 97 are listed as delivered. That means that we have to wait more than 8 years with a production rate of 20 pa before we could get one...

It should be 33 per annum from 2014 - more like a 5 year backlog with 165 outstanding orders, not all of which are expected to be delivered (Kingfisher? Virgin? HK?)

As for CX, I can see the commonality savings with 748F and increased 748i cargo capacity over A380 are positives. I wonder if Boeing would be prepared to do an uncomfortably low price to get the deal.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-04 03:23:52 and read 15773 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 150):
Except that


Thank you for your information - claiming as Stitch did in post 120 that the FAL in Toulouse is standing idle makes no sense right now. As I had a rather short time for a reply I didn't have time to do a thorough investigation into the matter. Thanks again.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-04 03:33:59 and read 15715 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 107):
Relevant from NYC would be Hong Kong, Korea or Japan. From London it would not be US East but Vest Coast.

While I certainly disagree about the relevance involved, even in these markets, twins are making inroads pretty quickly. KE fly a 380 to NY & LA, true, but they also fly 330s & 77Ws there as well. ANA & JAL really don't have 747s now, & also have no 388s on order, so NY to anywhere in Japan will be something in the 777 family, perhaps even 787s as that mess gets sorted out. I know you can get a ride on SQ's 388 there, but those are sent along that route because of the payload/range issue trying to come all the way from SIN. I'm not sure, you may still be able to catch a ride there on a UAL or DL 744, but don't quote me on that...

For existing 744s, well, they have to fly somewhere, so yes, they still make appearances. As I mentioned before, it's much like the 346, they're still around, and airlines that have them need to make use of them is some fashion. This is hardly the same, however, as saying that quad VLAs are what the market requires or wants.

From LHR to West Coast, yes BA do operate a 744. And 77Ws & 77Es. UA, AA, DL are all 77E from LAX, barring the occasional DL 77L sub-out. UA may operate a 744 from SFO, but again, not sure about that. More likely a 77E.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 108):

AA will be up-gauging to the 77W

Which would be a big twin. Now my, my contention is that the 77W fits every definition of the term "VLA", but you're free to think otherwise.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 108):
BA to the A380 on that specific route.

They have to send them somewhere. The trouble with that one, is that like most quads, the 388 really won't fully utilize its efficiency gains on that short a route. If BA stuff it with premium seats (And I believe they can do that, given the profusion of other flights along that route), it will make money. If they try to use it as a straight "capacity" machine, no way.

LAX, IMHO, would be a far better use of the same aircraft. We only get three BA a day.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 122):
I could argue they've had 10 years of "uninterrupted" sales, if you strip out about 3 years for the delays, and in that time sold 262 - just over 10% down on the 300 target for the 1st decade.

You could. The problem is that it's the most recent years of sales that have really hurt for the 388 line. Going forward, that's not a great trend, especially with things like the 35J & 779 likely to be available at the end of the decade.

I'm not saying 388 sales will finish up soon, but I do believe that 750 total is probably a bit optimistic, to say the least. Really, the only way I see it getting there is EK committing (sometime next decade) to replace it's current 388 stock & order, with more 388s and for someone like TK to begin a massive buildup of their own. Based on what I've seen lately, I do not think the latter is easy to dismiss. The former, not so much, of course.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 127):


I think in the end, commonality with the 747-8F will be why CX will buy the 747-8I to replace the 747-400 on their busiest routes. They will be supplemented by more 777-300ER's.

Certainly a possibility. But I think over all, the driving factor behind a 748i order would be the fact that they can have one in the time it takes to source parts, sub assemble, final assemble, certify & deliver. I very much much doubt anything like that is possible with the 388.

It doesn't by itself make it a better long term decision, but in conjunction with the factors you bring up, it could very easily tip the scales.


That is, of course, making the assumption that they want a quad at all. I personally think they don't. If I had to wager, I think their next VLA order will be more 77Ws.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
I don't think I've ever heard anyone describe the 744 as "very inefficient".   

I have  


Of course, when so doing, I bother to make the distinction (as it true for the 346 as well), that it was not designed inefficiently. Times have, however, changed.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 143):
they still make money and LH had spent huge amounts of money to buy them. And adding another type would probably have cost more than the operational savings; hence their top-up order of A346's. How many of you have bought a new computer, only to have a much better or cheaper model come out a few months later? I still remember spending $1000 to get 32 meg of memory; I thought at the time that memory prices had reached a plateau, but I was wrong. Within a year I could have bought the same for $200. But I had already spent my money, and so I made the best of it; LH did the same.

Very good point. I think this cannot be said enough! I'm seeing a lot of postings that suggest that just because certain routes are done with 744s, 346s, & 388s, then that must somehow indicate that Quad VLAs are the only way to go!

Airlines are just like the rest of us. You may want something new, but sometimes the budget says you have to use what you've got.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 144):

I don't think I've ever said that either. What I did say is that the market for quad engined VLAs is declining due to the advent of large long haul twins. I also said that there is no guarantee that CX will order either the A380 or the 747-8i. But that does not translate to "no market for a VLA". Evidently there is - just not a very big one.

Completely true. While I do not see the 388 as obsolete, it is true that there was no 787, 359, 35J, or 779 available for order when it came out. Airlines receiving 388s are obviously not going out of business because of this, but I think the claims of super efficiency have been mitigated somewhat by now.

I think there's room for the 388, but I think that will happen in the way that there's room for the 744 still. They will have to configure them in a high premium count set-up, & deploy on already dense routings.

I think it's interesting that companies have misjudged marketplaces before (I think of Honda's use of the Element in it's North American market), but still done very well on something in the end.

As for CX, we'll have to wait and see, huh?

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 146):

Not sure about that one there... VLA is (admittedly), a very subjective term. I fully include the 773/W, 346, & 35J there, because, they all do (in most cases better) what quad VLAs do. When you see AF 77Ws with higher capacities than most 744s flying, they can't be dismissed so easily.

Again, it's subjective, and you're welcome to think what you want, but as far as Airlines are concerned, the "new" 747 is a 77W much more than the 748i is.

Quoting abba (Reply 149):
I could even see an argument for Airbus to actually increase their production.

There's no reason they shouldn't, yes.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 150):

All of this would be equally valid if you substituted CX with LH in your statement - and yet, LH's order for the 747-8i obviously hasn't convinced too many people to order the type.

Nope, it sure hasn't. I think this is because the 748i really has a hard time finding a place. Most of the markets where frequency allows for the deployment of one or two a day aircraft in very high premium config'd aircraft already have 388s fielding that one. And given what a 748i costs, it gets tough to justify.

LH can make it work for a multitude of reasons, but no, I don't automatically assume that others can or will for the same reason. Same again with CX. They may order some, but if so, it won't (by itself) change the 748i's fortunes...

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: LH422
Posted 2013-02-04 03:41:52 and read 15733 times.

Just ran across this Airbus advertisement. Perhaps it will help CX make up their minds?  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-04 03:42:37 and read 15698 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 152):

Thank you for your information - claiming as Stitch did in post 120 that the FAL in Toulouse is standing idle makes no sense right now.

??? I read that post too and didn't see anything like that. It's not edited either from looks of it.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):


Quoting abba (Reply 118):
They got the demand more or less right getting the number of orders they would need to get to break even as far as their original market forecast and business case indicated.

Sure, they could have broken even with the current sales if they'd executed perfectly to plan, but you don't invest ten figures with the intent to break even. They'd also have pretty much delivered their backlog now so they'd have an idle FAL in TLS.

What I get from that is he's saying that the 388 line would be stopped by now if

A. They had sold only what they needed to in order to break even.
&
B. That break-even and assembly time figure was predicated on no delays compensations, etc.

I don't think that equates to "the line is standing idle". Do you see something I do not?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: AngMoh
Posted 2013-02-04 04:25:13 and read 15563 times.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 129):
What so many people fail to understand is risk management. It is one thing to look at volumes of aircraft flying a particular route and then presuppose one larger aircraft can just be slotted in and take the place of two or more flights. The larger the aircraft the more difficult it is to simply move to another route when a particular route goes soft. Do you cancel flights leaving slots unused, and have your customers migrate to more convenient flights? Given a 4 hour wait for an A380 and flying in 30 minutes on a 77W, there is no question what most North American and other businessmen will choose. Anet doesn't represent a fair public opinion base because people on this site will make decisions very differently than the general flying public. Flying around a VLA during a soft period makes a huge hit on the bottom line.

Now we get to the nonsense again of "we want frequency" when it comes to 12+ hrs flights. For that kind of flights there is often only 1 time slot which works.

I flew SIN-FRA on SQ many times. It was the last flight with the run down piece of rubbish 747 (SQ26) which departed 23:55. There was also a new up to date 77W departing at 14:50. I always tried to get the 77W because I was more or less guaranteed to have an empty seat next to me. However, I could not always make my connection, which was exactly the reason for it to have a poor load. The old rotten 747 of SQ26 was always packed, because for returning travellers it was the perfect time and for connections it is the only time which really works. Later the 747 was finally replaced by an A380, and it is still packed most of the time I need to fly.

Same for other similar routes: I have never heard complaints about 2 x 77W become 1x A380 to ZHR and CDG, because the A380 and only one of the 77Ws fly at the time there is demand and one of the 77Ws flies when there is no demand.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: RickNRoll
Posted 2013-02-04 04:25:59 and read 15585 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 153):
Completely true. While I do not see the 388 as obsolete, it is true that there was no 787, 359, 35J, or 779 available for order when it came out. Airlines receiving 388s are obviously not going out of business because of this, but I think the claims of super efficiency have been mitigated somewhat by now.

QANTAS ordered the 787 and the 388. It made sense at the time, both companies let them down, Boeing more than Airbus. The A380 works for them, however.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-04 04:47:37 and read 15500 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 153):
While I certainly disagree about the relevance involved, even in these markets, twins are making inroads pretty quickly.

That is NOT what the argument is about.

The argument is, that when you get routes above 10-12 hours across time zones the situation is so that frequency no longer plays an important role as there are more or less only two windows that will prevent you from either having to arrive or depart at highly inconvenient times. When there is a need for more capacity beyond two departures a day on such routers you either fly smaller air crafts right at its other's tails or put in bigger ones. On such routes frequency is no king as frequency dosn't matter much.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 155):
??? I read that post too and didn't see anything like that. It's not edited either from looks of it.

Then take another look:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
They'd also have pretty much delivered their backlog now so they'd have an idle FAL in TLS.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: BestWestern
Posted 2013-02-04 05:22:25 and read 15393 times.

Quoting LH422 (Reply 154):
Just ran across this Airbus advertisement.

The last line is the core of the Airbus argument... "it takes an A380 to compete with an A380"

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 156):
Now we get to the nonsense again of "we want frequency" when it comes to 12+ hrs flights. For that kind of flights there is often only 1 time slot which works.

Night flights are the yield generators on long hauls - And excluding the 4 to 5 hours on the ground in HKG, this really suits the European carriers to HKG.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-04 05:24:42 and read 15422 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 158):
The argument is, that when you get routes above 10-12 hours across time zones the situation is so that frequency no longer plays an important role as there are more or less only two windows that will prevent you from either having to arrive or depart at highly inconvenient times. When there is a need for more capacity beyond two departures a day on such routers you either fly smaller air crafts right at its other's tails or put in bigger ones. On such routes frequency is no king as frequency dosn't matter much.

That is not necessarily true. CX flies 4 x 77W to JFK every day, one of which goes via YVR. Just because it's a long haul flight doesn't necessarily mean that there are fewer time frames available within which a flight must be operated.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 159):
The last line is the core of the Airbus argument... "it takes an A380 to compete with an A380"

Which, quite frankly, is a load of bull. But it is, after all, an advertisement, in which puffery and embellishments are often used to promote the product.

[Edited 2013-02-04 05:29:03]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-04 05:50:22 and read 15254 times.

Interesting how any thread about any airline potentially ordering 747-8i/A380 does not just become a virtual bake-off between supporters of the 747-8i and the A380 (which would in a way be understandable - to a point), but a re-hash of old marketing myths and pitches, such as "frequency over capacity" (aka 787 vs A380).

Anyway - let's just wait and see if CX decide to order any VLA at all, and if so, what type it's going to be.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-04 06:25:04 and read 15177 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 150):
Incidentally, LH and CX were also both early customers for the A340-600 - but this still didn't boost market confidence in the type enough to make it a good seller against the clearly superior 77W

LH and CX had two very different missions for the A346, LH was using it on smaller demand then 744 routes all over its network and getting many of them. CX leased only 3 because it was the first plane it could get for nonstop HKG to JFK flights. When the 77W became avilable tCathay ditched the A346.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-04 06:41:32 and read 15100 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 162):
CX leased only 3 because it was the first plane it could get for nonstop HKG to JFK flights.

Which is proof of the fact that the A346 was a highly efficient aircraft at the time. In fact is was the most efficient when it was introduced to the market. But only 3 years later the even more efficient B77W, turning out way better then even Boeing and GE expected, sealed the fate of the A346 in the commercial market place.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: dfambro
Posted 2013-02-04 06:43:43 and read 15076 times.

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 156):
Now we get to the nonsense again of "we want frequency" when it comes to 12+ hrs flights. For that kind of flights there is often only 1 time slot which works.

Works for who? I, for one, lament the lack of frequency on US-Japan schedules. I want to leave later and arrive later than current schedules allow. But, that later arrival wouldn't be aligned with a departure bank, which I don't care about since I'm stopping in Japan. I'm sure I'm not alone in this, so there's a "we want frequency" contingent for US-Japan (and HK, so this is relevant to CX), but it doesn't "work" for the airlines. One of my hopes for the 787 is that someone starts a late arrival US to Narita flight.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-02-04 06:43:45 and read 15093 times.

Do any LH insiders have actual figures for fuel burn/CASM for the A346/748/A380 ??

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-04 07:17:48 and read 15015 times.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 147):
Stitch, you previously claimed that the 748i was a cheap (in comparison) enhancement to the 744 - why then is the 748 such bad value in the eyes of airlines (just looking at its sales record) if its development costs were so low.

Because, like the 747-400 it is based on, it is an inferior passenger-carrying platform compared to the A380-800 and an inferior cargo-carrying platform compared to the 777-300ER.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: babybus
Posted 2013-02-04 08:37:28 and read 14806 times.

My vote goes to the A380. LHR-HGK is a long way and passengers need that space that only the A380 can provide.

Passengers like to say they have flown on a new airframe. Unfortunately, the 748i looks very much like its older brother.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-04 09:44:24 and read 14631 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 122):
Or Ek's A380's to MAN even .....

Good point. Now all Airbus needs is a 2nd EK to come along, and hope all its widebody customers not named EK can survive such an arrival.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 146):
in conclusion, regardless if CX will purchase the B748i or the A380, at the end of the day we all have to accept the fact that the A380 is the new definition of a VLA and has remarkably set the benchmark.

You may want to keep in mind the third possibility that is often pointed out here: CX may not buy either.

Quoting abba (Reply 158):
The argument is, that when you get routes above 10-12 hours across time zones the situation is so that frequency no longer plays an important role as there are more or less only two windows that will prevent you from either having to arrive or depart at highly inconvenient times. When there is a need for more capacity beyond two departures a day on such routers you either fly smaller air crafts right at its other's tails or put in bigger ones. On such routes frequency is no king as frequency dosn't matter much.

There's some merit to the east/west argument, and in the context of this thread the CX CEO is saying the main problem they are trying to address is LHR and HKG capacity. I think the size of the resulting order (if there is one) will be a pretty good indicator of the appeal of the 4 engined VLA.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-04 11:10:45 and read 14380 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 168):
Good point. Now all Airbus needs is a 2nd EK to come along, and hope all its widebody customers not named EK can survive such an arrival.

Airbus doesn't really need that, nor is it really likely to happen. A few top-up orders from existing customers plus maybe four new customers over the next 5 years should do them fine - and seem quite realistic in my eyes.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 168):
You may want to keep in mind the third possibility that is often pointed out here: CX may not buy either.

True, but that would be boring for a thread titled "Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again" (after CX already decided not to buy either type before).  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: neutronstar73
Posted 2013-02-04 11:27:32 and read 14271 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 122):
Er, scuse me. The A380's business case was based on a forecast of selling 750 over 20 years (which I understand to have been about 300 in the 1st decade and 450 in the 2nd), so I've no idea how "4 figures" got tossed into the equation.

You are excused. Read this: http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2008...a-and-the-airbus-boeing-forecasts/

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-04 12:43:22 and read 14018 times.

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 170):
You are excused. Read this

That total includes freighters (a sector in which Airbus doesn't currently compete, and was already out of by 2008) and is the total market projection, not a prediction of A380 sales. Airbus has never spoken about anything other than wanting to take 50% of the passenger VLA market.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-04 13:18:24 and read 13962 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 153):
You could. The problem is that it's the most recent years of sales that have really hurt for the 388 line. Going forward, that's not a great trend

The problem with THAT is that the early years were the ones without any issues emerging.
Would you like to have a look at the 787's sales record and compare the pattern?

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 157):
QANTAS ordered the 787 and the 388

You mean they ordered the VLA AND the plane that is going to obsolete it at the same time?
Surely not?   

Quoting Revelation (Reply 168):
Now all Airbus needs is a 2nd EK to come along, and hope all its widebody customers not named EK can survive such an arrival.

not sure why we need the cheap shot
If an airline is growing strongly and healthily by ordering A380's why would Airbus care if its at the expense of rivals?
Provided overall sales and profitability don't suffer

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 170):
You are excused

Have a look at the sentence below, and I'm sure you'll agree that the last thing I need is being excused by you.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.

My point was made clearly and concisely above.
Airbus NEVER predicted "4 figure sales" OF THE A380. Ever.
And "seriously misjudging" demand must mean having an error margin of greater than 10%.
*sigh*

I guess that "normal service" has been resumed.....  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-04 13:52:07 and read 13834 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 172):
You mean they ordered the VLA AND the plane that is going to obsolete it at the same time?
Surely not?   

The world has gone crazy! I've done some checking - turns out that BA, AF/KL, Qatar, China Southern, Korean Air, SQ and VS did exactly the same thing.
Madness!
  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: DolphinAir747
Posted 2013-02-04 18:48:15 and read 13395 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 173):
The world has gone crazy! I've done some checking - turns out that BA, AF/KL, Qatar, China Southern, Korean Air, SQ and VS did exactly the same thing.

Why will VLAs become obsolete? As demand rises globally and problems such as rising fuel costs and constraints at airports like LHR continue, VLAs will be ever-so-important on certain routes.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-05 05:00:38 and read 12994 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 171):

That total includes freighters (a sector in which Airbus doesn't currently compete, and was already out of by 2008) and is the total market projection, not a prediction of A380 sales.

So.... Freighters do not count; is that what we're saying? Because I would say that's really about all that the 748 has going anymore...

Quoting scbriml (Reply 171):
Airbus has never spoken about anything other than wanting to take 50% of the passenger VLA market.

Then they would be aiming low. With the quad-VLA market as it is and likely will remain, they'd really be better off shooting for something closer to 85+%. With 748i sales going the way they are, this shouldn't be a problem.

They just shouldn't (and almost certainly now don't) expect to sell 700.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 172):

The problem with THAT is that the early years were the ones without any issues emerging.
Would you like to have a look at the 787's sales record and compare the pattern?

Sure, if you want. But that's really a different question.

The 787 is slacking because it's execution is, shall we say, one for the books. Delays, Production Issues, Problems with Boeing's partners, and now groundings have done great damage to the program, both in terms of compensation and confidence in timely usefulness of orders placed. Add to that the weight "gain" problems and yes, it's very reasonable to expect some seriously slow sales years for the 787.

For the 380, things are different. Airbus still hasn't sped up production to where it wants/needs, but it is a lot better than it was. An A388 ordered today will likely arrive in the time specified, and as ordered, though it's likely that that lead time is going to be considerable. And that's really the worst thing the plane has going against it as a model.

The problem is that the market case for it isn't as solid, to be polite, as that for a big twin. When you mention the 787's sales record above, we also need to look at what the 77W, 359, 35J, 332 & 333 have been doing. Obviously some better than others there, but the fact is that while quad VLA sales have all but vanished (thank you EK!), big twins, flying the same routes, have picked up a fair bit of steam. To make this assessment "fair" we can include 748i sales in the Quad VLA camp. And see the same thing.

388 sales have slowed down because the market really doesn't favor Quad jets, not because it's a 388.
787 sales have slowed down because it's a 787, not because the market doesn't want big twins.

To me, that's a pretty big difference.

As I said in a post previous, I do not believe the 388 is over and done. There will be top ups & replacements here and there. As well, I'll go out on a not too ridiculous limb and assert that TK may well prove to be another (if perhaps 75% scale at zenith) EK waiting to happen, which could be a huge boon to the 388 program; the right factors are in place or lining up for it. But the 388 is a product much more specialized than the simple capacity dumper some here imagine it to be.

What was that you said about not taking a simplistic view of the market again?  
Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 157):
QANTAS ordered the 787 and the 388. It made sense at the time, both companies let them down, Boeing more than Airbus. The A380 works for them, however.

Yup, they did that. I think a good deal of the remaining 787s QF has on order may go to JQ. They list 14 on order, QF isn't showing any & BCA is showing 14 for QF. We can refine that research some but it looks like QF wants the 380s on its side and the 788s for JQ...

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-05 05:41:28 and read 12904 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 169):
Airbus doesn't really need that, nor is it really likely to happen. A few top-up orders from existing customers plus maybe four new customers over the next 5 years should do them fine - and seem quite realistic in my eyes.

Airbus as a company will be fine but the four engine VLA sector will continue to be a disappointment.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 172):
not sure why we need the cheap shot

It wasn't meant as such, just a statement of opinion.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 172):
If an airline is growing strongly and healthily by ordering A380's why would Airbus care if its at the expense of rivals?
Provided overall sales and profitability don't suffer

The main point is the overall four engine VLA market is a disappointment and thus Airbus has a large underperforming asset on its hands, as does Boeing with 748. Many here said the goal of the A380 was to remove 747 profits from Boeing, and it's done that, but it's also removing profits from Airbus too. Time to cue up Ender's quote of how the A380 program is a fiscal burden and will be for years to come. "New" entrants like EK are not making up for the tepid orders from traditional four engine VLA customers. Add to that the manufacturing and production issues and it's even more disappointing.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 174):
Why will VLAs become obsolete? As demand rises globally and problems such as rising fuel costs and constraints at airports like LHR continue, VLAs will be ever-so-important on certain routes.

The question isn't if it will be successful on certain routes, the question is whether it'll be successful on enough routes to sustain the type long term.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 175):
The problem is that the market case for it isn't as solid, to be polite, as that for a big twin.

CX's orders (or lack thereof) should be an interesting data point. They're already cock-a-block with the biggest twins one can order these days. It'll be interesting whatever they do, be it no order, a tepid order or a substantial order.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2013-02-05 10:44:20 and read 12505 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 80):
But Packsonflight is absolutely right to point out that the A380 will see improvements as much as the 748i will.
In fact in the long term, given the potential that it had built in, the A380 is likely to see a lot more improvement than the 748i ever will.

- This makes no big difference, as the planes you buy are the ones you get, not the ones offered after you buy yours. It's like you buying electronics. Once you buy you iPhone and take it home, a better one may be for sale a bit later. But that does you personally no good and does not make your phone that you have any better nor cheaper.

What is bought and important important are the planes available at the time, not what is available later on at a different time. The only time this may make a difference is if it is planned to stagger order out over many years in repeated buys - even then, it's only a guess as nobody knows for sure what improvements will or will not be done at each airframer.

Secondly, it think the 747 will win easily at CX because it can generate much more cargo revenue than an A380, while still carrying full pax. For a carrier like CX, that has a lot of cargo business out from China, Cargo capability is important. Planes are not bought to save money, they're bought to make money. And sor CX, a big part of that is transporting cargo.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 10:53:04 and read 12481 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 177):
Secondly, it think the 747 will win easily at CX because it can generate much more cargo revenue than an A380, while still carrying full pax. For a carrier like CX, that has a lot of cargo business out from China, Cargo capability is important. Planes are not bought to save money, they're bought to make money. And sor CX, a big part of that is transporting cargo.

When it comes to passengers and cargo are CX, KE and LH very much comparable with each other. And LH and KE have bought the A380 and the B748i. So CX might do the same, where LH and KE have made no secret about the fact that the A380 is the flagship of the fleet. My guess is that if CX orders a VLA, they will order the A380. She will win easily over the B748i. Just my   

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-02-05 11:17:16 and read 12417 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 176):
The main point is the overall four engine VLA market is a disappointment and thus Airbus has a large underperforming asset on its hands, as does Boeing with 748. Many here said the goal of the A380 was to remove 747 profits from Boeing, and it's done that, but it's also removing profits from Airbus too. Time to cue up Ender's quote of how the A380 program is a fiscal burden and will be for years to come. "New" entrants like EK are not making up for the tepid orders from traditional four engine VLA customers. Add to that the manufacturing and production issues and it's even more disappointing.

I think Boeing is a lot more worried than Airbus; much as I love the 747, the -8 has been a failure and the arrival of the 777-9X will pretty much kill it. The 779 will probably eat into the A380's market to some extent, although I expect that most airlines that order 779s will also (or have already) ordered A380s. We're still in a period of economic downturn and we know that in the 70s and 80s that the 747 went through a period of very poor sales, yet still ended up - forty years later - with over 1,400 sales. The A388 is just the start of the A380 family and I'm sure that at some stage, there will be a 389, possibly even a 388F, but this will be over the lifetime of the program. Sure, the program may be somewhat disappointing now, but I don't think it has been THAT disappointing; they certainly could not have predicted at the outset that EK would have been such a huge customer.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 177):
Secondly, it think the 747 will win easily at CX because it can generate much more cargo revenue than an A380, while still carrying full pax

I don't think either model will win easily. If CX ordered either model, I'm sure that each would serve it very well, but again, my view is that CX will take the long term view; put very simplistically, the 748 is the end of the line, whereas the A388 is the start of the line. Also, CX knows the 779 is coming and being a very strong 777 customer since the beginning (including LN 1!), it's much more likely to be interested in that. Would anyone seriously suggest that an existing strong 777 customer should choose 748s when the 779 is on the horizon - especially when the latter will have considerably better cargo haulage capabilities.

The A388, admittedly, has never been a favourite with CX and its true that its cargo carrying capacity is a concern, BUT when it comes to shifting pax, it can do the job. CX's product offering is such that seat numbers on its main long haul aircraft - now the 77W - is down to 275 in a four class layout. And as Premium Economy grows (and I acknowledge that it has been disappointing initially), that number may well decline further. I'd expect that in CX 4 class layout, the 388 would probably seat around 440-460. What would a 748 seat? Possibly around 360-380?

Of course, we're all involved in guesswork to a great extent and I would not be at all disappointed if CX did order the 748 - just very surprised.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-02-05 11:21:24 and read 12389 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 175):
So.... Freighters do not count; is that what we're saying?

No, that's the exact opposite of what I'm saying.

You pointed to the Airbus Global Market Forecast of 2008 claiming it showed Airbus predicting "four figures" of A380 sales. It clearly doesn't since:
1 - the total figure is for all VLA sales including freighters. Given Airbus doesn't have an offering in that market, there's a chunk of sales they can never achieve.
2 - in terms of passenger VLA sales, Airbus has never projected or predicted to take more than 50% of that market.

Given 1 AND 2, Airbus's predicted A380 sales would be around the 600-700 number.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 175):
Then they would be aiming low.

Well, better to set a reasonable market share target and beat it than fail totally.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-02-05 11:27:11 and read 12394 times.

Quote:
We're still in a period of economic downturn and we know that in the 70s and 80s that the 747 went through a period of very poor sales, yet still ended up - forty years later - with over 1,400 sales.

  

Quote:
I'd expect that in CX 4 class layout, the 388 would probably seat around 440-460.

Something like that. The BA A380 will have 469 seats in a 4 class layout.

Quote:
What would a 748 seat? Possibly around 360-380?



Good question. LH has 386 seats in their 744-8i, how would that translate in a 4 class layout?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: 135mech
Posted 2013-02-05 11:49:46 and read 12272 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 180):
You pointed to the Airbus Global Market Forecast of 2008 claiming it showed Airbus predicting "four figures" of A380 sales. It clearly doesn't since:
1 - the total figure is for all VLA sales including freighters. Given Airbus doesn't have an offering in that market, there's a chunk of sales they can never achieve.
2 - in terms of passenger VLA sales, Airbus has never projected or predicted to take more than 50% of that market.

But, it DOES state that Airbus expected (total VLA) sales to hit four figures in that 2008 report: Here's a direct quote...

["March 16, 2008

For a change, let’s take a look at the Airbus and the A380.

Airbus predicts a market of nearly 1,700 passenger and cargo airplanes in the Very Large Aircraft (VLA) category in its new forecast issued this year. Boeing forecasts 960 VLAs in its market outlook issued last year. Each prediction is for a 20-year period, or 2027 for Boeing and 2028 for Airbus."]

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2008...a-and-the-airbus-boeing-forecasts/

So, people saying that Airbus never forcast 4 figure numbers for the (entire) VLA market in the 2008 report, are wrong. It was Boeing that did not expect it to go over 1,000 in the 2007 report. Please read the entire report before "correcting" others.

Regards,
135Mech

[Edited 2013-02-05 11:56:26]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 11:55:00 and read 12238 times.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 182):
So, people saying that Airbus never forecast ed4 figure numbers for the (entire) VLA market in the 2008 report, are wrong.

That is not correct. The point of the discussion was if Airbus ever fore-casted a 4-digit number of A380 sales. That they clearly never did. That Airbus fore-casted a 4-digit number for the total VLA-market over a 20 year period is correct, and was never disputed in this discussion. How accurate that forecast will be, we will know in about 16 years from now.  .

Quoting 135mech (Reply 182):
Please read the entire report before "correcting" others.

Please read the discussion carefully before "correcting" others.  Wink.

[Edited 2013-02-05 11:56:31]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: neutronstar73
Posted 2013-02-05 11:58:46 and read 12209 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 180):
You pointed to the Airbus Global Market Forecast of 2008 claiming it showed Airbus predicting "four figures" of A380 sales. It clearly doesn't since:
1 - the total figure is for all VLA sales including freighters. Given Airbus doesn't have an offering in that market, there's a chunk of sales they can never achieve.
2 - in terms of passenger VLA sales, Airbus has never projected or predicted to take more than 50% of that market.

Given 1 AND 2, Airbus's predicted A380 sales would be around the 600-700 number.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 172):
Have a look at the sentence below, and I'm sure you'll agree that the last thing I need is being excused by you.

For posterity's sake:

http://www.ascendworldwide.com/airbus-a380-order-d.pdf

Check out page 2, under "Small in Japan"

Oh and this article in the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/16/bu...ness/16iht-airbus_ed3__2.html?_r=0

[Edited 2013-02-05 12:02:56]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: 135mech
Posted 2013-02-05 11:59:55 and read 12201 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 183):
That is not correct. The point of the discussion was if Airbus ever fore-casted a 4-digit number of A380 sales. That they clearly never did. That Airbus fore-casted a 4-digit number for the total VLA-market over a 20 year period is correct, and was never disputed in this discussion. How accurate that forecast will be, we will know in about 16 years from now. .

No, it WAS disputed more than once, that is why I quoted it, (the last "dispute" - reply 180) and referenced the article from where the information was derived.

135Mech

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 12:03:50 and read 12176 times.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 185):
No, it WAS disputed more than once, that is why I quoted it, (the last "dispute" - reply 180) and referenced the article from where the information was derived.

Then please show me and everyone else here where Airbus predicts more then 1,000 sales of the A380. Maybe I have missed something? If that is the case, then I apologise.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: 135mech
Posted 2013-02-05 12:04:13 and read 12180 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 183):
Quoting 135mech (Reply 182):
Please read the entire report before "correcting" others.

Please read the discussion carefully before "correcting" others. .

I have been reading this thread thoroughly and responded accordingly with actual references for my post.

As you should do the same!  

135Mech

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-02-05 12:05:59 and read 12183 times.

A forecast for 1700 VLA's doesn't mean 1700 A380 sales. John Leahy always said he would love to have half of that market, that would be around 850 A380 orders between 2008 and 2028.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: 135mech
Posted 2013-02-05 12:06:35 and read 12173 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 186):
Quoting 135mech (Reply 185):
No, it WAS disputed more than once, that is why I quoted it, (the last "dispute" - reply 180) and referenced the article from where the information was derived.

Then please show me and everyone else here where Airbus predicts more then 1,000 sales of the A380. Maybe I have missed something? If that is the case, then I apologise.

It is CLEARLY stated and referenced in reply 182 (actual numbers and referenced link)... my first post that you were so quick to stomp on. Are we done?

135mech

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 12:07:04 and read 12175 times.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 187):
As you should do the same!

And I respectfully believe I have done so. So please inform me where Airbus stated that they would sell more then 1,000 copies of the A380. That was to my knowledge the claim being made earlier in this thread.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 12:08:17 and read 12150 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 188):
A forecast for 1700 VLA's doesn't mean 1700 A380 sales.

Exactly my point.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 188):
John Leahy always said he would love to have half of that market, that would be around 850 A380 orders between 2008 and 2028.

He sure would love to see that number, but that is still a long time away.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: 135mech
Posted 2013-02-05 12:10:03 and read 12133 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 188):
A forecast for 1700 VLA's doesn't mean 1700 A380 sales. John Leahy always said he would love to have half of that market, that would be around 850 A380 orders between 2008 and 2028.

I agree sir, that seemed (as it was written) to be Airbus's forcast of the TOTAL VLA market for both Airbus and Boeing, while Boeing's forcast in 2007 of the TOTAL VLA market was only 960 for both A and B.

Cheers,
135Mech

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-05 12:25:07 and read 12071 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 190):
So please inform me where Airbus stated that they would sell more then 1,000 copies of the A380. That was to my knowledge the claim being made earlier in this thread.

Page 23 of the Airbus Global Market Outlook - 2003-2022 projected demand for nearly 1,200 very large and economical passenger aircraft and noted that it appeared the A380 would have that market to itself. Does that count?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 12:32:59 and read 12036 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 193):
Does that count?

Not entirely since the B748i (and the B779-X) will also be a part of that market over the period fore-casted. Airbus for sure would hope and love to have that market totally for herself, but that is not going to happen in the real world.  .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-05 12:33:25 and read 12037 times.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 189):
It is CLEARLY stated and referenced in reply 182 (actual numbers and referenced link)... my first post that you were so quick to stomp on. Are we done?



The problem is that your reference does NOT say what you say it says. Your reference (which as a reference is rather bad as it is providing second hand information about the subject matter - why not use the source behind the Leeham report? It is freely available at Airbus' homepage in a number of different versions http://www.airbus.com/company/market/forecast/ ) tells what Airbus expects the demand for VLAs will be over a 20 years period. Not what their business case for the 380 envisions that they will sell nor what JL hope to sell or believe that he can sell. The very same reports also predicts the sale of NBs - and certainly does not expect Airbus to have this entire market.

In other words: we all know what Airbus' market forecast says. You still need to prove that Airbus expects to capture that entire market!

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: neutronstar73
Posted 2013-02-05 12:45:25 and read 11986 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 193):

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 190):
So please inform me where Airbus stated that they would sell more then 1,000 copies of the A380. That was to my knowledge the claim being made earlier in this thread.

Page 23 of the Airbus Global Market Outlook - 2003-2022 projected demand for nearly 1,200 very large and economical passenger aircraft and noted that it appeared the A380 would have that market to itself. Does that count?

I think it does put to rest the notion some here have said that "Airbus never said it would sell 4 figures of A380" when page 23 of the document you reference clearly says the opposite.

I don't think there is any other meaning you can get from that statement. Now, in reality, would that happen? Likely not, but that doesn't figure into what "Airbus said" and what "reality will likely dictate", since the discussion here isn't over what reality will dictate, but what "airbus said/predicted"

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-05 12:48:30 and read 12004 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 194):
Not entirely since the B748i (and the B779-X) will also be a part of that market over the period fore-casted.

In 2003, neither the 747-8 nor the 777-9X existed.  

Boeing had also cancelled the 747X and 747X Stretch so the only VLA Boeing had on offer - or projected offer - was the 747-400. And based on what Airbus was identifying as a VLA - 450 seats or more - the 747-400 was not a VLA as defined by Airbus (it was considered an Intermediate Twin-Aisle) and therefore would not have been part of the ~1200 projected deliveries.

Anyway, I think we're starting to drift into the same semantic battle that's been waged in the 787 Grounding threads. We should probably bring the discussion back on topic to which VLA CX might order.  Smile

[Edited 2013-02-05 12:54:01]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-05 12:48:42 and read 12006 times.

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 196):
I think it does put to rest the notion some here have said that "Airbus never said it would sell 4 figures of A380" when page 23 of the document you reference clearly says the opposite.

No, it does not. It does not state that Airbus expects to sell more then 1,000 copies. One might imply that, but it is not directly stated. So please point out to us where it is clearly stated that Airbus expects to sell more then 1,000 copies of the A380.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: 135mech
Posted 2013-02-05 12:51:14 and read 12014 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 195):
In other words: we all know what Airbus' market forecast says. You still need to prove that Airbus expects to capture that entire market!

I never said that "Airbus expected the entire market".

Quoting 135mech (Reply 192):
I agree sir, that seemed (as it was written) to be Airbus's forcast of the TOTAL VLA market for both Airbus and Boeing, while Boeing's forcast in 2007 of the TOTAL VLA market was only 960 for both A and B.



BUT...back to the actual topic, best of luck if CX does decide to pursue this purchase either way! Each aircraft have their specific benenfits to the market, even though the economy is sluggish for VLA's.

135Mech

[Edited 2013-02-05 13:02:53]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-05 13:25:10 and read 11897 times.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 177):
Secondly, it think the 747 will win easily at CX because it can generate much more cargo revenue than an A380,

it rather depends on how many seats are in each. If they were to have 469 in the A380 ( 450 has been suggested) and 401 ( as has been suggested) in the 748i , based on a cargo density of 160kg/m3 which is about typical for passenger aircraft belly cargo, the A380 would have space for ~15.5t and the 748i 14t.
Thus it is doubtful whether cargo would figure very prominently in the decision .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: ecbomberman
Posted 2013-02-05 14:10:02 and read 11832 times.

Quoting shankly (Reply 9):
Quoting shankly (Reply 9):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380

VS does fly LHR-HKG too and it's a full flight most of the time. And the flight carries on to SYD, so what makes you think that they don't have the capacity.

With the transfer of 49% of VS shares to Delta, I would presume that they would want to consolidate some of their flights LHR-US, hence another case for the A380.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-02-05 14:13:28 and read 11966 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 197):
And based on what Airbus was identifying as a VLA - 450 seats or more - the 747-400 was not a VLA as defined by Airbus

Interesting. I have 3 questions:

- The 777 can seat a maximum of 550 passagiers, does that make it a VLA too? Or are we talking about a 3 class layout here?

- If we talk about a 3 class layout, Airbus has another definition of the cabin layout. If you put the A380 cabin inside the 747-8, you will get fewer than 400 seats (source). Would that make the 747-8 not a VLA in the eyes of Airbus?

- Leeham News says 400 seats marks a VLA (instead of 450 earlier). Does that mean the definition of a VLA changes over time?

The more I think about it the more it feels like 'VLA' is just a stupid term.

[Edited 2013-02-05 14:18:33]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: ecbomberman
Posted 2013-02-05 14:25:23 and read 11897 times.

Quoting carpethead (Reply 64):
Quoting carpethead (Reply 64):
It's like NRT has only a few A380 capable gates, but since JL nor NH have little to no interest in ordering the type, why does NAA (Narita Airport Authority) need to spend millions to have 20 A380 capable gates.

Maybe other airlines are interested in flying their A380's into NRT??

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):
The bulk of CX's 777-300ERs have been bought as 747-400 replacements. I recall that CX has said as much in the past.

      

A343's do have their place in their network... Long and thin routes such as HKG-FCO and at one stage I seem to recall HKG-SVO-MAN, but that never materialise....

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-02-05 14:33:06 and read 11893 times.

Quoting ecbomberman (Reply 203):
Maybe other airlines are interested in flying their A380's into NRT??

I can only think of Skymark as a future A380 customer in NRT.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CCA
Posted 2013-02-05 20:41:46 and read 11587 times.

Cathay will begin 5 X LHR later this year (ANZ slots) but its seasonal not all year round. Using a combination of 77W and 744. The current choice of seat numbers can be any of the following depending on demand.

275 - 77W (4 class)
299 - 77W (3 class no PY)
350 - 77W (3 class no F) [Old J & New J]
359 - 744 (4 class)
379 - 744 (3 class)

A -8I in CXs current config will seat at least an extra 20 Y seats possibly more with a new cabin fit. J class is harder to work out as comparing Lufthansas 744s to their 748s doesn't work as their business class has totally changed. CX would get a minimum of 6 extra J class seats possibly more depending on how the new cabin is designed. Therefore I'd expect CX 748Is to carry a minimum of 385 in 4 class (405 in 3 class) with some creative cabin arrangement perhaps 395 in 4 class.

385-395 748I (4 class)

As you can see CX likes frequency and you can bet the 275 seat 77W will be topped up with as much freight as CX wants.

This isn't to say CX won't get the A380 as I believe for CX the A380 is not if they get it but when they get it.

[Edited 2013-02-05 20:47:23]

[Edited 2013-02-05 20:48:07]

[Edited 2013-02-05 20:57:15]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: art
Posted 2013-02-06 02:03:13 and read 11174 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 200):
Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 177):
Secondly, it think the 747 will win easily at CX because it can generate much more cargo revenue than an A380,

it rather depends on how many seats are in each. If they were to have 469 in the A380 ( 450 has been suggested) and 401 ( as has been suggested) in the 748i , based on a cargo density of 160kg/m3 which is about typical for passenger aircraft belly cargo, the A380 would have space for ~15.5t and the 748i 14t.
Thus it is doubtful whether cargo would figure very prominently in the decision

If the A380 = limited cargo argument in favour of 748-i is marginal or not the case at all, what favours the 748-i? Just close commonality with 748F?

As at least one other has suggested, I would think that A388 will benefit from more incremental improvements than 748-i over the years. While that does not improve those already procured, it would mean that additional A380 frames ordered later could be expected to show greater efficiency gains than additional 748-i frames ordered later. Opting for A388 would also leave the gate open for A389 later if desired without loss of commonality (which would occur if CX ordered 748-i in the near future).

What chance is there of CX deciding they want neither and ordering more 777 while they wait to discover what 777X offers?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-06 03:15:30 and read 11013 times.

Quoting art (Reply 206):
If the A380 = limited cargo argument in favour of 748-i is marginal or not the case at all, what favours the 748-i? Just close commonality with 748F?

Availability, slightly lower acquistion cost, lower operational cost & similar premium cabin capacity. Though commonality is a thing, I think these factors are higher up on the list. If they wanted the 388, they can get around the commonality issue and integrate it into the fleet pretty easily.

The problem is that the 77W does most of that better, & adds cargo capacity as well. I really don't see CX going quad again, but if they were to, all of the above are good reasons not to write the 748i off just yet.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-06 04:08:17 and read 10907 times.

Quoting art (Reply 206):
What chance is there of CX deciding they want neither and ordering more 777 while they wait to discover what 777X offers?

I think that is a very real possibility.

When Tony Tyler was CX CEO, he suggested that CX has no interest in the A380 "in its current form", which suggests to me that they are interested in an A380-900. I'm not convinced by the argument that airlines who want to buy the A380-900 would settle for the A380-800 if the -900 is never launched. If the A380-900 was available, it should be big enough to carry the pax load of 2 x 777-300ERs, thus freeing up the 777s to open up new routes. The A380-800 is not quite big enough for that purpose. The A380-900 may also match or beat the volumetric cargo capability of a 747-8i with pax and bags, so the advantage that the 747-8i has now would evaporate.

Granted, the A380-800 carries more pax than any other commercial airliner, but one A380-800 alone is insufficient to replace two frequencies. The A380-800 burns more fuel per trip than either the 747-8i or the 777-300ER, but significantly less than 2 x 747-8i or 2 x 777-300ER. At the same time, 2 x 777-300ER or 2 x 747-8i would have more pax and cargo capability than 1 x A380-800. In short, 2 x 777-300ER is likely to make more money than 1 x A380-800. If the advantage of the A380-800 or 747-8i is on routes that have a consistently very high demand and are slot restricted, it stands to reason that using one plane big enough to replace two would free up a slot and 2 aircraft, and use less fuel in the process. Unfortunately, such a plane doesn't exist yet.

In the absence of an A380-900, it is my belief that CX will continue adding frequency to high demand routes instead of upguaging. They have shown a pattern of doing so in the past. The advantage of doing so is that if demand is not consistent and drops during a particular season, they can reduce the frequency again. CX have catered for the increasing demands by the Asian travel market through increasing the size of its fleet as opposed to buying larger aircraft. It still has 17 777-300ERs still to be delivered as well as 26 A350-1000s. I believe it is a very real possibility of CX not ordering either the A380-800 or the 747-8i.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: B-HOP
Posted 2013-02-06 06:23:07 and read 10596 times.

Before comparing between A380 and 8i, lets look at what the -400 currently does. -400 does a fair amount of flying regionally, with afternoon flight to Haneda 542/3, Sapporo 580/1, Osaka 506/7 and Bali 784/5 almost always use -400, many of those destination are either slot or traffic agreement restricted and frequency cannot be increased easily. Some, like Sapporo are critical in duty time, especially in winter and longer turnaround means extra crew or an extra stop in TPE, furthermore, there are questions whether any of the above can take 380, along with SGN.
Now a 380 brings a longer turnaround time either end, instead of 1 hour it need around 1:40 (eg TG600/601), that could almost cost one TPE turnaround, Cathay do allocate aircraft to a route very last minute and flexibility is vital. At the moment, A380, even in Hong KOng, due to lack of bridges, are on 'appointment' basis only, if sudden changes were made, problems appears, Airport Authority already have enough headache dealing with more than 3 A380 a day.If 748 can be operate (almost) like 744, that would be a win for them, beside, as another insider posted before, they have 1000 guys to move, keeping them on an existing platform (748F) save money. Cathay made controversial, but hindsight, wise decisions, if the platform is right, they would pick them. So although A380 offers more capacity, but I my guess is Cathay would still go with the -8i.

Kev

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-02-06 06:29:29 and read 10540 times.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 174):
Why will VLAs become obsolete? As demand rises globally and problems such as rising fuel costs and constraints at airports like LHR continue, VLAs will be ever-so-important on certain routes.

Sorry, I was being ironic - I never believed that 787s and A330s will obliterate the VLA segment. I was trying to point out that, in fact, most A380 customers have bought 787s and A380s, i.e. the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 182):
So, people saying that Airbus never forcast 4 figure numbers for the (entire) VLA market in the 2008 report, are wrong. It was Boeing that did not expect it to go over 1,000 in the 2007 report. Please read the entire report before

Please read the whole thread and the statements that were made. Nobody said that Airbus never forecast four-digit numbers for the whole segment. They did not say - contrary to what Stitch implied - that they expect four-digit sales for the A380, though.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 192):
I agree sir, that seemed (as it was written) to be Airbus's forcast of the TOTAL VLA market for both Airbus and Boeing, while Boeing's forcast in 2007 of the TOTAL VLA market was only 960 for both A and B.

Yup - nobody denied that Airbus had a different forecast for the VLA market than Boeing. But with its four-digit forecast, Airbus never lay claim to capturing 100% of that segment.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 193):
Page 23 of the Airbus Global Market Outlook - 2003-2022 projected demand for nearly 1,200 very large and economical passenger aircraft and noted that it appeared the A380 would have that market to itself. Does that count?

No, because Airbus at no point claimed that they expected to get 100% market share of that segment forecast.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 197):
In 2003, neither the 747-8 nor the 777-9X existed.

While no 747-8 existed in 2003 and some variations of the 747X just got scrapped, Airbus was surely not so naive to expect Boeing to leave the whole segment to Airbus.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: NobleRT
Posted 2013-02-06 06:32:15 and read 10517 times.

When would Cathay need to make a decision?

I see a lot of confusion between their need/desire for new metal and the possibility of them waiting for the next iteration of the 777 - whenever that comes. How long will their current 747 fleet last them? I hold CX in high regard and I don't see them ordering something they don't need. Do they really need the new planes for say a 2016-2018 entry into service, or so do they need their planes for a 2020-2022 entry. That really makes the difference between a380, 748 and a 389 or 77x.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: andrewtang
Posted 2013-02-06 06:53:15 and read 10485 times.

When it comes to cargo capability, the A380-800 definitely loses out compared to the 77W or 747-8I but realistically it really isn't a big issue because there are dedicated freighters plying on key European/American routes. That being said, CX already operates a number of 747-8F and these new freighters are performing pretty well! Logically, adding the 747-8I to the fleet will require little additional work compared to the A380 and there will be an instant boost in passenger capacity whilst at the same time incurring similar operating cost when compared to a 744. I guess it is always possible to order a number of 747-8I on lease for the interim period until the next generation aircraft (A380-900 or B777-9X) becomes available IF indeed there is a need to replace the 744 quickly and increase capacity in the short run.

[Edited 2013-02-06 07:04:58]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: pnwtraveler
Posted 2013-02-06 06:59:06 and read 10440 times.

It is obvious that Cathay isn't seeing an urgent need for either airframe at the moment. They are relooking at the VLA's with probably better facts at hand. IE, More operating data on newer blocks of A388 and real numbers now on both their 748F and LH's experience with the B748i. For example LH is seeing a 1% better performance than expected. These two sets of data, plus projected performance of the airframes they would be getting (any addiitional improvements on the A388 and the projected weight, pip engine improvement, tail tank activation on the B748). Even if they were lukewarm at best about a VLA, those changes in data projections should warrant a new look. Companies do this all the time but might not announce it to the press. This is a company showing good fiduciary responsibility not necessarily an expectation of an order. If the numbers hit the sweet spots then maybe an order will happen. Who knows maybe CX loves setting a fire on Anet and then watching it burn.   I can see them now pointing out some of the posts above and laughing over a few drinks after work. Maybe they have bets on the nit picking parsing with people predicting how many posts it will take for the A vs. B manure to start to fly.  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: PW100
Posted 2013-02-06 07:10:42 and read 10388 times.

Quoting andrewtang (Reply 212):
I believe there is a concern that the 747-8I may have poor resale value in the future but I guess it is always possible to order a number of B747-8I on lease for the interim period until the next generation aircraft (A380-900/ B777-9X) becomes available

Leasing itself won't solve that problem; surely the leasing companies would be smart enough to account for the "poor resale value " in their lease rates.

Having said that, I don't really buy the poor resale value argument for the 748i. As has been generally accepted, the 748 is a fantastic freighter, and will stay the large freighter of choice for the foreseeable future. I therefore have no doubt in my mind that freighter conversion potential will keep resale values of 748i sufficiently high as to not deter any potential customers at this point.

I also don't really buy the quick delivery slots as a big factor in CX choice for VLA (if they go for it). For the last ten years they did not seem to be in a hurry to get anything larger than a 77W. They have been taking literally years and years to come to a VLA decision; it seems a llittle far fetched that when they eventually come to a choice, if at all, that they can't afford to wait for another year or so to get their hands on their equipment of choice.


Rgds,
PW100

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: francoflier
Posted 2013-02-06 07:11:07 and read 10405 times.

I won't go over the 200+ replies, but I wonder if anybody's discussed the fact that apart from sheer economics and planning strategy, almost all of CX's Asian competitors are flying A380s, many of which take off and land everyday right in front of Cathay City.

CX is not an airline for oneupmanship, but this being booming Asia, most of its customer base is...
The appeal on the local punters is still present. SQ and the others use it to their advantage.

It is still a factor, though not the biggest, in the decision making process.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-06 07:24:25 and read 10364 times.

Quoting B-HOP (Reply 209):

Thank you for an insightful post. You are of course quite correct.

Quoting NobleRT (Reply 211):
How long will their current 747 fleet last them?

Last time I checked, CX plans on retiring its entire 744 fleet by 2016.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 215):
almost all of CX's Asian competitors are flying A380s, many of which take off and land everyday right in front of Cathay City.

I'm sorry, but I don't see how this should be a factor at all. And you've already given the reason in your post: CX are not an airline that is given to one-upmanship. In fact, no respectable, well run airline would buy an aircraft purely to keep up with the Joneses. The fact that a number of airlines are operating to and from HKG with the A380 should have zero impact on CX's ultimate decision on whether or not to get one themselves. They'll only get it if it is the right aircraft for them.

Contrary to what Airbus would like people to think, one does not need an A380 to compete with an A380.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-06 07:39:02 and read 10303 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 216):
Contrary to what Airbus would like people to think, one does not need an A380 to compete with an A380.

On a 1 to 1 airplane comparison Airbus is quite correct with their statement. But as airline, there are many alternatives. Which is a good thing imho.  .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: andrewtang
Posted 2013-02-06 07:52:18 and read 10240 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 214):

Leasing itself won't solve that problem; surely the leasing companies would be smart enough to account for the "poor resale value " in their lease rates.

Having said that, I don't really buy the poor resale value argument for the 748i. As has been generally accepted, the 748 is a fantastic freighter, and will stay the large freighter of choice for the foreseeable future. I therefore have no doubt in my mind that freighter conversion potential will keep resale values of 748i sufficiently high as to not deter any potential customers at this point.

I also don't really buy the quick delivery slots as a big factor in CX choice for VLA (if they go for it). For the last ten years they did not seem to be in a hurry to get anything larger than a 77W. They have been taking literally years and years to come to a VLA decision; it seems a llittle far fetched that when they eventually come to a choice, if at all, that they can't afford to wait for another year or so to get their hands on their equipment of choice.

Leasing of course will not solve the issue in the long run but it is certainly the easiest way to increase capacity whilst at the same time minimising long term risk IF you are not able to add flights due to slot constraints. CX's A340-600s were all leased when they were first ordered and they were returned after both the A340-600HGW and B777-300ER become available. The 748-F is surely a fantastic freighter and considering the fact that there is really no competitor to begin with, it is hard not to expect it to remain as the choice for large freighter in the foreseeable future. Historically cargo conversion does not always result in high resale value for an aircraft. For instance, with the introduction of the 772LRF, the 744BCF has been marginalised.

There was no hurry to order anything larger than a 77W back in 2004 because CX chose to buy second hand 744s instead. However times have changed. Market conditions today is no longer the same as before and with the accelerated retirement of the 744, it is perhaps important to start planning for the future even though the 77W has already taken over a number of flights that were previously operated by the 744. Of course, the 77W works really well for High frequency over Capacity model but when you start to face issues with airport slot constrains, that's when the problem really begins.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-02-06 08:25:42 and read 10163 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 217):
On a 1 to 1 airplane comparison Airbus is quite correct with their statement.

That also depends on what metric you're using to compare aircraft. It carries more passengers than any other commercial airliner. Depending on the seat configurations, it probably has better fuel burn per seat and fuel burn per available cabin area than any other commercial airliner. But fuel burn isn't the be-all and end-all of aircraft purchasing decisions, nor is the A380 the most suitable type for every conceivable mission. The A380 may have the advantage over other aircraft types on certain mission profiles, but other aircraft types may have other advantages on a different mission.

Airbus' statement is demonstrably false.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-06 08:33:11 and read 10148 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 219):
Airbus' statement is demonstrably false.

No, it is not. On its unique features she has no competition. And that is what is marketed in the advertorial Airbus made. And that is quite correct.  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2013-02-06 08:35:18 and read 10163 times.

Quoting andrewtang (Reply 218):
IF you are not able to add flights due to slot constraints

Well they have just confirmed that of one slot constrained airport (LHR) they are INCREASING daily rotations from June to five - yes five a day !
The 744 will be down to just one rotation and remaining on the 77W.

So still frequency lead then !

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: PW100
Posted 2013-02-06 08:48:20 and read 10095 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 221):
So still frequency lead then !

So what's the timing on the new flight? Don't tell me it's within an hour (either way) of an existing flight, as that would sort of destroy the above highlighted conclusion . . . ?

PS. Honest question.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-06 08:53:37 and read 10097 times.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 215):
but I wonder if anybody's discussed the fact that apart from sheer economics and planning strategy, almost all of CX's Asian competitors are flying A380s, many of which take off and land everyday right in front of Cathay City.

CX is not an airline for oneupmanship, but this being booming Asia, most of its customer base is...
The appeal on the local punters is still present. SQ and the others use it to their advantage.

It is still a factor, though not the biggest, in the decision making process.

Erm, I doubt that one. Where I work at LAX, I think we have about five different airlines flying in at least seven 388s a day. Where's UA & DL's orders for the type?

Also, even if that were, I have heard from more than a few folks that any much more than about five 388s into/out of HKG a day starts to present a headache. Now, I'm sure with a big enough order, the airport authority there would try something to smooth that out, but if CX do not really need a 388 just now, it just becomes one more discouraging factor against it. And the 748i for that matter, as the requirements WRT airport alterations are about the same for both of the Quad-VLAs currently in production...

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 221):

Well they have just confirmed that of one slot constrained airport (LHR) they are INCREASING daily rotations from June to five - yes five a day !
The 744 will be down to just one rotation and remaining on the 77W.

So still frequency lead then

For sure. There's just so much more inherent flexibility that way.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 222):
So what's the timing on the new flight? Don't tell me it's within an hour (either way) of an existing flight, as that would sort of destroy the above highlighted conclusion . . . ?

Here at LAX, we do have two CX 77Ws that depart very close together. I think between them, the 74Fs, & 748fs, we get about seven rotations a day.

I wouldn't say that destroys any conclusions though... We always have more than one daily 77W here, but in some markets, they need to maintain a certain elasticity that throwing a "high capacity" VLA on would reasonably hurt.

[Edited 2013-02-06 08:57:44]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: rutankrd
Posted 2013-02-06 09:04:58 and read 10053 times.

Schedule

HKG -LHR

CX255 dep 0035 local arrive 0620 local B744
CX257 dep 1005 local arrive 1600 local B77W
CX239 dep 1025 local arrive 1615 local B77W - New Flight
CX253 dep 1400 local arrive 2030 local B77W
CX251 dep 2355 local arrive 0540 local next day B77W


LHR- HKG

CX252 dep 1230 local arrive 0705 local next day B744
CX250 dep 1820 local arrive 1305 local next day B77W
CX256 dep 2015 local arrive 1505 local next day B77W
CX254 dep 2220 local arrive 1705 local next day B77W
CX238 dep 2235 local arrive 1715 local next day B77W - New flight

So PW100 you are right new flight almost on top of an existing

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-06 12:07:26 and read 9777 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 221):
Well they have just confirmed that of one slot constrained airport (LHR) they are INCREASING daily rotations from June to five - yes five a day !
The 744 will be down to just one rotation and remaining on the 77W.

The day could be coming when Cathay's LHR schedule looks like BA's LHR to JFK Schdeule, 7 or 8 daily flights. CX prints tons of money with 77W with plenty of J class and room for cargo in the bellies of the airplanes, why mess with that formula with an A380. Its not as Cathay will introduce some new fabulous First or Business Class on the whale jet a 777 can't satisfy, CX is not the type of airline with showers in First Class on the plane, at the lounge yes. JFK is flown several times daily, all the way to the east coast of America what does an A380 bring to the flights, nothing other then bragging rights, CX doesn't really care about that.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-06 12:39:00 and read 9746 times.

The 748i is a good plane when you can seat 380-400 people but not more, a 77W gets cramped and the A380 with 380 seats cant be all that impressive, a lot of structure for those 380 seats.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: N14AZ
Posted 2013-02-06 12:57:13 and read 9805 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 224):

HKG -LHR
CX257 dep 1005 local arrive 1600 local B77W
CX239 dep 1025 local arrive 1615 local B77W - New Flight
Quoting rutankrd (Reply 224):

LHR- HKG
CX254 dep 2220 local arrive 1705 local next day B77W
CX238 dep 2235 local arrive 1715 local next day B77W - New flight

Excuse me, I hope I don't come across as a greenie with sandals, eating his daily muesli, but I think this is perverted. I guess that's why they were thinking about the A 389. If this particular case justifies buying a fleet of A 380s is of course another question...

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: BrouAviation
Posted 2013-02-06 13:42:18 and read 9640 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 220):
No, it is not. On its unique features she has no competition. And that is what is marketed in the advertorial Airbus made. And that is quite correct.

Really? You want to play semantics? In that case, following your logic, it takes a 748 to compete with a 748.
Nothing has competition on its unique features, that is because they are just that, UNIQUE. So what you say, is that the Airbus ad does nothing more than stating the obvious.

There are plenty routes a 747-8 would make more money on than a A380 with the a comparable layout would make. KL's network (having a large airfreight operation) has many of those routes, just to name an example.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-06 13:50:11 and read 9614 times.

Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 229):
In that case, following your logic, it takes a 748 to compete with a 748.

That is correct. It is a phrase from a marketing add, and is absolutely true. That is exactly what the goal of the marketeers was and is.

It has nothing to do with being the superior choice of an aircraft or whatever cr*p one can think of. It is just marketing.  .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: ncfc99
Posted 2013-02-06 14:22:32 and read 9569 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.

The above quote is why many people are disputing that Airbus has stated it will sell in over 1000 A380's.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 185):
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 183):
That is not correct. The point of the discussion was if Airbus ever fore-casted a 4-digit number of A380 sales. That they clearly never did. That Airbus fore-casted a 4-digit number for the total VLA-market over a 20 year period is correct, and was never disputed in this discussion. How accurate that forecast will be, we will know in about 16 years from now. .

No, it WAS disputed more than once, that is why I quoted it, (the last "dispute" - reply 180) and referenced the article from where the information was derived.

What was disputed more than once was that the Airbus global market forcast was for four digits of VLA's (including freighters), at no point in that article does it state four digits of A380's. The information derived from the article disagrees with your argument.

Quoting 135mech (Reply 192):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 188):
A forecast for 1700 VLA's doesn't mean 1700 A380 sales. John Leahy always said he would love to have half of that market, that would be around 850 A380 orders between 2008 and 2028.

I agree sir, that seemed (as it was written) to be Airbus's forcast of the TOTAL VLA market for both Airbus and Boeing, while Boeing's forcast in 2007 of the TOTAL VLA market was only 960 for both A and B.

Which is what you disputed???????

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 184):
For posterity's sake:

http://www.ascendworldwide.com/airbus-a380-order-d.pdf

Check out page 2, under "Small in Japan"

Oh and this article in the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/16/bu...?_r=0

Both articles, IMHO, are very poor examples to prove your argument due to the poor grammer used, it can easily confuse the unintelligent general readership (the intelligent ones will know better)-

Page 2 under "small Japan"

it states 'Airbus predicted sales for the A380 of AS MANY AS 1000'. So airbus think they may get up to 1000, but using the term AS MANY AS indicates they think its a long shot.

The NY times article states 'Airbus predictions of sales of more than 1,500 A380-size planes, a number Airbus raised in predictions this year to 1,650 planes, including 400 freighters'. I asume the people at Airbus know that they do not produce an A380 sized freighter. There is however, a VLA freighter. Sort of echo's the dispute futher up the thread that Airbus has many times stated the VLA market at about 1600-1800 aircraft, and the A380 is included in those aircraft, but not all of them.

[Edited 2013-02-06 14:24:04]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-06 14:25:54 and read 9576 times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 221):
Well they have just confirmed that of one slot constrained airport (LHR) they are INCREASING daily rotations from June to five - yes five a day !
The 744 will be down to just one rotation and remaining on the 77W.

The day could be coming when Cathay's LHR schedule looks like BA's LHR to JFK Schdeule, 7 or 8 daily flights. CX prints tons of money with 77W with plenty of J class and room for cargo in the bellies of the airplanes, why mess with that formula with an A380. Its not as Cathay will introduce some new fabulous First or Business Class on the whale jet a 777 can't satisfy, CX is not the type of airline with showers in First Class on the plane, at the lounge yes. JFK is flown several times daily, all the way to the east coast of America what does an A380 bring to the flights, nothing other then bragging rights, CX doesn't really care about that.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-06 14:27:18 and read 9579 times.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 231):
What was disputed more than once was that the Airbus global market forecast was for four digits of VLA's (including freighters),

No, the global forecast number from Airbus of 1,700 sold VLA's in all categories by all manufacturers was and is undisputed. Whether or not that number will become reality we will know in about 15-16 years from now.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 231):
The information derived from the article disagrees with your argument.

No, it does not.

But let's move on since this discussion is just academic and far away from the possibility of CX purchasing A380's and/or B748i's.

[Edited 2013-02-06 14:28:55]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: ncfc99
Posted 2013-02-06 14:38:27 and read 9556 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 233):
Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 231):
What was disputed more than once was that the Airbus global market forecast was for four digits of VLA's (including freighters),

No, the global forecast number from Airbus of 1,700 sold VLA's in all categories by all manufacturers was and is undisputed. Whether or not that number will become reality we will know in about 15-16 years from now.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 231):
The information derived from the article disagrees with your argument.

No, it does not.

But let's move on since this discussion is just academic and far away from the possibility of CX purchasing A380's and/or B748i's.


EPA001, you seem to have got the wrong end of the stick. I am in total agreement with you, I am not agreeing with 135mech, apologies if that is not clear in my post  . I agree the Airbus forecast is for all VLA's, not jut A380's. The information derived from the article disagrees with 135mech's argument.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-06 14:41:47 and read 9581 times.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 234):
EPA001, you seem to have got the wrong end of the stick. I am in total agreement with you, I am not agreeing with 135mech, apologies if that is not clear in my post

Ah, now I see. Well, maybe it is the late hour that I might have misinterpreted your post. So apologies are not really necessary.  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cx flyboy
Posted 2013-02-06 16:17:01 and read 9491 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 223):
Also, even if that were, I have heard from more than a few folks that any much more than about five 388s into/out of HKG a day starts to present a headache

Some days HKG gets 8 A380 flights. Why would it be a headache? Granted there are only a few existing gates the A380s park at but current non-conforming gates can easily be converted to A380 capable as demand for the jet increases. No issues there.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-07 00:54:51 and read 9051 times.

Quoting cx flyboy (Reply 235):
No issues there.


One should actually be rather surprised if there was an issue. Hong Kong has an almost brand new (and very beautiful!) airport were no doubt planes the size of the 380 has been foreseen in the design.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-02-07 05:21:20 and read 8685 times.

Quoting cx flyboy (Reply 235):
Why would it be a headache?

Just what I've heard from two of our RMs that work out of there. I haven't been there in about three years, and won't be until November of this year, so if you know better, you know better. The terms I've heard for turning EK & TG's birds include words like "chaotic" & "rushed."

Do you all ever board from remote stands? We do that a lot at LAX to alleviate a lot of the same issues. We're gaining some space next month as the West Side TBIT opens, but will likely still need West Remote to take care of a lot of these...


Anyway, like I said

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 223):
Now, I'm sure with a big enough order, the airport authority there would try something to smooth that out, but if CX do not really need a 388 just now, it just becomes one more discouraging factor against it.

Conversely, this means that if there was a pressing need for it, I'm guessing they'd make more twin pier gates. The point of my reply was that CX aren't about to dump a whole bunch of 748Is or 388s into their network and their hub just because a few other airlines have them.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cloudyapple
Posted 2013-02-07 22:34:52 and read 8216 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 236):
Hong Kong has an almost brand new (and very beautiful!) airport

Before you know it, we are celebrating 15 years of operations this year.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 237):
Do you all ever board from remote stands? We do that a lot at LAX to alleviate a lot of the same issues. We're gaining some space next month as the West Side TBIT opens, but will likely still need West Remote to take care of a lot of these...

We never board A380s from remotes here. We have 4 Code F stands and another 1 being converted. There are 2 further Code F-sized stands that can be converted should there be the demand. When Midfield concourse opens there will be another 2.

I boarded an EK A380 at a remote in DXB and it was a painful experience.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-07 22:47:59 and read 8180 times.

Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 238):
Before you know it, we are celebrating 15 years of operations this year.



I know. Time is running faster and faster apparently. I lived in Hong Kong from 1994 to 2006 and remember the transfer from Kai Tak very well  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: ecbomberman
Posted 2013-02-08 03:49:13 and read 7889 times.

People on the other discussion have been going on and on about the A380 for CX as well as on this forum:

CX To Lauch 5th Daily LHR (by HB-IWC Feb 6 2013 in Civil Aviation)

The question is that does CX really have to follow suit to buy A380's when SQ, TG and KE are buying it? CX , may I say from my experience, is not an airline that brags that they have the latest equipment. Maybe only A.netter care about it but to a typical passenger, they don't really care what plane they fly in as long as they have a consistently good service (something which I think CX delivers).

Another thing to consider is that are they currently making a loss flying 77W's to their destinations? Would a bigger aircraft be over the top for some destinations? One must consider that although 748i/A380 is bigger than 744/77W, can they carry as much cargo as they can on the 77W with full pax? Cargos help airlines earn considerably more money than pax does.

Last but not the least, CX made quite a considerable loss in the last financial year, so my ultimate guess is that they will not sign any deals in the foreseeable future.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 237):
Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 237):
Conversely, this means that if there was a pressing need for it, I'm guessing they'd make more twin pier gates. The point of my reply was that CX aren't about to dump a whole bunch of 748Is or 388s into their network and their hub just because a few other airlines have them.

Coundn't agree more. Maybe their current combination of aircraft suits them best....

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: HKG212
Posted 2013-02-08 04:01:26 and read 7842 times.

Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 238):
When Midfield concourse opens there will be another 2.

There will actually be 3 Code F gates at the MFC.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-08 08:47:44 and read 7563 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 239):
Last but not the least, CX made quite a considerable loss in the last financial year, so my ultimate guess is that they will not sign any deals in the foreseeable future.

I my view the key in looking at an airline's financials is the change in cash and cash equivalents on hand from the previous reporting period.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Cerecl
Posted 2013-02-09 00:55:22 and read 7181 times.

Quoting B-HOP (Reply 209):

I don't think it is entirely valid to expect CX to simply replace 747 with A380 (if CX does order it) and fly them to all of the current 744 destinations. CX has a large enough 77W fleet to accommodate any changes. I expect CX to replace 77W and 747 with A380 on some routes, freeing up 77W (combined with newly delivered 77Ws) which can then be used to replace 744 on some other routes.
As to the A380 compatible bridges, I think HKIA authority realises that A380 traffic can only increase. I believe it'd be foolish (and I don't think it is) not to make necessary changes. Remember, all it took for ATL to change their mind on A380 was KE's decision to send it there. I honestly don't think it will make much of an impact on CX's decision.

[Edited 2013-02-09 00:56:53]

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-09 01:36:57 and read 7098 times.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 242):
I my view



Let me point out quite clearly: You are quoting me for saying something I didn't say at all.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: B-HOP
Posted 2013-02-09 03:04:40 and read 6938 times.

True they can use 773 or 77w for a lot of the regional mission, but there are few things

773, whilst a people carrier, lacks the long haul business new class Cathay has advertised, DPS, CTS often can't have frequencies due to rights or load, they often use longhaul C and frequent flyers can tell, beside, holiday rush like CTS rush Chinese New Year eve today, some tour who use C class emphasis they are longhaul C class, 3 744 went to CTs today. 77W is efficient, seat count wise too small, if the route warrant 350 seats, you make a loss with a 275 seat 77w then a half empty 330, that is when a large, long haul aircraft comes in handy, although we don't know whether this role would be shared with 359/3510 in future. Whilst long haul is the main duty, they would do a lot of short haul, so practicability with short haul ops is vital too.

Kev

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: Cerecl
Posted 2013-02-09 04:09:02 and read 6812 times.

Quoting B-HOP (Reply 245):

If an route is perfect for 3x747, then I cannot see why this cannot be replaced by 1x380, 1x77W and 1x333. Sure maybe it is not a 100% perfect replacement, but again I don't think one can expect every route can be perfectly accommodated whether CX chooses A380 or 748i. Indeed, some are of the opinion that CX will choose neither and simply add A350 and 77W. If this is the case how do you think CX will operate CTS route when 744 leaves?

Quoting B-HOP (Reply 209):
there are questions whether any of the above can take 380, along with SGN
http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...poro-new-chitose-welcome-the-a380/
SGN and DPS may not be able to receive A380. But again, I doubt it is a big deal.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-09 05:07:07 and read 6728 times.

Quoting ecbomberman (Reply 240):
Last but not the least, CX made quite a considerable loss in the last financial year, so my ultimate guess is that they will not sign any deals in the foreseeable future.

Just 7 months ago they ordered quite a lot A350's from Airbus. That was no small order to say the least. See: Cathay Pacific To Order 26 A350-1000 (by flythere Jul 10 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Knowing CX, if the investment will make sense for them, they will go for it. If not, they will execute their quite successful strategy as they have done before.  .

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-02-09 08:02:50 and read 6526 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 244):
Let me point out quite clearly: You are quoting me for saying something I didn't say at all.

My apologies, I used the quote from your posting totally out of context... sorry abba .  

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: cloudyapple
Posted 2013-02-09 08:11:41 and read 6527 times.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 241):
There will actually be 3 Code F gates at the MFC.

Are you telling me the AutoCAD drawings I have been working with in the past 4 years are wrong?

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-02-09 08:52:19 and read 6427 times.

I think 77W and A3510 will be the largest frames they have in the future, maybe the 9X of the 777X if an when it is for sale.

There seems to be a belief that VLAs are that wonder magic pill that would make everything so much better.

I even like long range NBs..   Don't like to be crowded with 500 other humans in a tube.

Topic: RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-02-09 10:37:24 and read 6297 times.

Due to length of this thread, please continue the discussion here if you so desire: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Part 2 (by iowaman Feb 9 2013 in Civil Aviation)


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/