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Topic: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Moderators
Posted 2013-02-08 01:33:17 and read 26738 times.

Dear All,

in order to consolidate the AA/US merger threads (and after input from users, which we highly appreciate) the moderators decided to start separate threads each discussing one aspect of the AA/US merger and its impact to both the industry and the two airlines involved.

Please continue discussing this hot news in their individual official threads:

AA/US Merger Impact: Fleet
AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs
AA/US Merger Impact: Employees
AA/US Merger Impact: HQ
A/US Merger Impact: Livery
AA/US Merger Impact: Unions
AA/US Merger Impact: Routes (THIS THREAD ONLY)
AA/US Merger Impact: Inflight Service

Enjoy & have a nice weekend!

The Airliners.net Moderator crew

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: apjung
Posted 2013-02-08 01:41:13 and read 26750 times.

I hope AA would have the foresight to add the PHX-MSY route that HP abruptly canceled just before Hurricane Katrina made landfall and never resumed when they merged with US.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jfk787nyc
Posted 2013-02-08 02:11:41 and read 26576 times.

What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 02:39:43 and read 26355 times.

Okay, let's try this one again.


Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule.

Will whichever airline is regarded as the acquiring airline matter?

What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHLJJS
Posted 2013-02-08 03:22:17 and read 26050 times.

Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 2):
What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.

I think PHL-TLV is very safe. It does very well.

The PHL-Asia flights that the Philadelphia Mayor, airport officials, etc have been begging US to start for the last few years likely won't happen though. I see those going to JFK.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-08 03:48:22 and read 25906 times.

Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 2):
What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.

AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: thorntot
Posted 2013-02-08 04:09:37 and read 25782 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 8):
AA is the surving company

My money is on "American Airways" being the name for the combined carrier, leaving no "surviving" carrier so to speak. A holding company will be created (American Airways) with subsidiary-American Airlines and subsidiary-US Airways operating under the umbrella of American Airways. Much like Continental taking over United, the stronger brand-name will be kept (American), and we will have many discussion of "sub-AA this" and "sub-US that" until the final bits of the airlines are finally combined years down the road.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-08 04:33:02 and read 25665 times.

Since we're treating this as if it's already happened, and because I put my domestic predictions primarily with the hub discussion, here are my predictions on the international network ...

Atlantic: some shifting and optimization among hubs/gateways; 1 daily FRA and seasonal GLA flights shifted from PHL to JFK (as 757s), and JFK also picks up 1 daily flight to TLV; CLT-FCO shifted to MIA-MXP and seasonal CLT-DUB ended entirely; PHL/CLT-FRA each lose 1 daily and PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections); seasonal PHL-ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy) while PHL-BCN and CLT-MAD upgraded from seasonal to year-round

Pacific: little direct impact from merger, beyond US bringing feed and connectivity from US hubs and strength markets to AA Asia-bound flights instead of onto United codeshare flights; may provide marginal boost to NRT/China flying; longer-term, AA/JL JV adds daily JL 787 on PHL-NRT

Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA, although CLT retains substantial capacity to major markets (e.g., CUN, AUA, PUJ, SJU, STT, MBJ, etc.)

[Edited 2013-02-08 05:10:27]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-02-08 04:43:54 and read 25598 times.

I can't see PHL-LIS surviving. At best it will be shifted to JFK-LIS. I would love to see them try something out of the box like BOS-LIS.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: chepos
Posted 2013-02-08 04:46:33 and read 25569 times.

PHL/CLT- FRA is currently at one daily flight (it's only twice daily in the summer). If this merger goes through it would be interesting to see if BA returns to CLT, I would expect LH to exit CLT. I just don't see the CLT-MAD as going year round, maybe I'm wrong.
I

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-08 05:34:42 and read 25343 times.

Quoting PHLJJS (Reply 4):

I see PHL being one of the first new Asia routes of the combined airline, if not the first.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-08 05:35:39 and read 25348 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA,

I think CLT-GRU can work with more appropriate timing; I view it as similar to DTW-GRU or ORD-GRU. It's likely a smaller local market than either, but it's much better positioned for connections and AA is much stronger with Brasil point of sale traffic than either UA or DL.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2013-02-08 06:53:04 and read 24960 times.

I'd love to see an analysis by someone of...

How many airports are served by both US and AA?
How many are served by only US or only AA?
How many are likely to pick up new hub connections?
How many are likely to lose hub connections through consolidation?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-02-08 07:00:40 and read 24914 times.

Quoting thorntot (Reply 6):
My money is on "American Airways" being the name for the combined carrier, leaving no "surviving" carrier so to speak. A holding company will be created (American Airways) with subsidiary-American Airlines and subsidiary-US Airways operating under the umbrella of American Airways. Much like Continental taking over United, the stronger brand-name will be kept (American), and we will have many discussion of "sub-AA this" and "sub-US that" until the final bits of the airlines are finally combined years down the road.

No, I think it will be known as American and the Airlines/Airways will only be in the official name, but will become "American" as the marketing name like most people refer to most of the airlines now anyways. Hence the "American" and no mention of AA on the new livery.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-08 07:16:48 and read 24830 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Atlantic: some shifting and optimization among hubs/gateways; 1 daily FRA and seasonal GLA flights shifted from PHL to JFK (as 757s), and JFK also picks up 1 daily flight to TLV; CLT-FCO shifted to MIA-MXP and seasonal CLT-DUB ended entirely; PHL/CLT-FRA each lose 1 daily and PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections); seasonal PHL-ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy) while PHL-BCN and CLT-MAD upgraded from seasonal to year-round

I think the dependence on PHL-FRA is shifted to PHL-LHR with at least 3 daily not sure how it would play out between AA/US and BA.
Possibly double daily PHL-MAD.
PHL-ATH is definitely gone.
I think PHL-NRT and HKG are definitely in the cards

AA may be the suriving "name" but isn't the leadership supposed to be predominantly US? They may make the case to put an end to the TLV issue because they see the $$. I suspect PHL-TLV is upgraded to 772 rather than double daily and then JFK-TLV added.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: simairlinenet
Posted 2013-02-08 07:56:00 and read 24637 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections)

Really? US Airways has been in MUC since the late '90s. Yes, it was helped by an odd codeshare with Deutsche BA, but they kept it through the downturn, Deutsche BA's changes, and before they joined Star Alliance.

ZRH, maybe. AA flies JFK-ZRH right now.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: dtfg
Posted 2013-02-08 08:24:08 and read 24477 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
I see PHL being one of the first new Asia routes of the combined airline, if not the first.

PHL-PEK ? I remember US got green light on this route years ago but for whatever reason they abandoned it.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-08 08:53:53 and read 24326 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
I think PHL-NRT and HKG are definitely in the cards

I agree PHL-NRT is a distinct possibility.

PHL-HKG is a nonstarter. The market isnt there.

Quoting dtfg (Reply 16):
PHL-PEK ? I remember US got green light on this route years ago but for whatever reason they abandoned it.

They didnt have the plane for it. It probably was a blessing in disguise. I dont think that flight would have been a success.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-02-08 09:46:54 and read 24072 times.

A lot of the focus seems to be on specific international points, but very little on domestic points. I would almost expect that the new AA will go through an add a second hub option to every airport that is currently served by only one.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 09:51:10 and read 24052 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 18):
I would almost expect that the new AA will go through an add a second hub option to every airport that is currently served by only one.

I'd happily exchange a few PDX-PHX flights for the return of PDX-ORD and the PDX-DFW red-eye.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-08 10:02:53 and read 23932 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
PHL-AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections)
Quoting simairlinenet (Reply 15):
Really? US Airways has been in AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC since the late '90s. Yes, it was helped by an odd codeshare with Deutsche BA, but they kept it through the downturn, Deutsche BA's changes, and before they joined Star Alliance.ZRH, maybe. AA flies JFK-ZRH right now.

I think PHL-AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC will stay, but PHL-ZRH is going to go. Better to use the plane for Budapest(from either ORD or JFK) since there is no DL or MA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
seasonal PHL-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy)

Much will depend on what Qatar Airways does. For those of you who don't know already, QR is planning to put on JFK-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH, which is a bit of an amomoly, since neither city is a hub for them. However, they have been dragging their feet on this. Right now should be the time to start loading the flight into inventory, to start selling for the peak summer season. Yet they haven't. With this in mind, it's highly likely they will turn around and decide NOT do it.

If QR is on, then it's likely AA/US will give up on AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH forever, just like UA did last year. If they are off, then AA/US should keep the service----but out of another hub. PHL is OK, but synergy too weak compared to JFK(or ORD)-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 8):
I can't see PHL-LIS surviving. At best it will be shifted to JFK-LIS. I would love to see them try something out of the box like BOS-LIS.

Philly is also weak here, too. Even more so. New York is do-able, but then you are directly competing against existing TP/UA flights. BOS-LIS is good. Or perhaps even service to Terceira, Azores Islands(TER). Many people that go to LIS are connecting there, and then turning around, and going west. They get the people to where they need to be AND burn less fuel on BOS(or JFK) to TER.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-08 10:23:08 and read 23760 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
I agree PHL-NRT is a distinct possibility. PHL-HKG is a nonstarter. The market isnt there.

True........there is enough Asia(as a continent) demand, but not any one strong city from PHL. But if you have to have any Asian hub to represent PHL traffic, NRT is the one........lots of connection options on AA partner JAL.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
Possibly double daily PHL-MAD.

Sounds like a good idea.....but we need to see how the Iberia situation plays out, before adding the second flight. We can get a better gauge on it once IB figures out which inter-Europe flights they will have.

Also:
(1) Making the JFK-MAN trip a thru trip from AUS.
(2) More Puerto Rico in the winter
(3) One seasonal summer Europe trip out of STL, perhaps 4x/week to LHR. Good feeder to BA's hub.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-08 11:01:43 and read 23373 times.

First, a little history of AA and US at my hometown airport: With service dating back to the PI DAY hub in the mid-1980s, US left FWA and many other small Midwestern airports in 2004 as part of the broader PIT dehubbing. However, after over 30 years serving FWA (first with 727s, then F100s and ATRs, and now ERJs), AA/Eagle remains strong at FWA with service to ORD and DFW (the FWA-DFW route turns 13 this year).

I see this as the chance where the merged AA/US finally launches FWA-PHL, FWA-CLT, and potentially FWA-DCA as American Eagle (or whatever they want to call the regional arm) routes. All three cities have close ties to FWA: Wells Fargo and Lincoln Financial have large presences in FWA, PHL, and CLT, along with many other companies. There are also a lot of people from the PHL area that live in FWA now, likely due in part to Lincoln Financial. As for FWA-DCA, there is a huge untapped O&D market with many local ties (even moreso than NYC) that currently has to connect at ORD or DTW or use another airport with nonstop DC-area service.

From FWA, I could see AA/US adding one daily flight each to CLT and either DCA or PHL (initially a CR2 or ER4 for PHL and DCA; 70-seaters for CLT to compete with the likely upgrade of DL's FWA-ATL to larger aircraft) to start to complement the 3-4 daily ORD and 2 daily DFW flights. If successful initially (and I think it would be), FWA-PHL/CLT could go double-daily, though DCA would get larger aircraft in lieu of higher frequency due to slot controls. As for the existing Eagle routes from FWA, I see a bright future for them as well. I could see DFW being upgraded to larger aircraft for sure (either MQ CR7s moved from ORD as RW takes over 70-seat ORD flying or CR7s/CR9s/E-Jets from the pre-merger US regional partners) and potentially an ORD flight or two.

And I think that it's not just FWA that will get tapped into the PMUS (is it too early to start using that term?) network: Many other cities abandoned by US in the wake of the PIT dehubbing that still have a strong Eagle presence like GRR, PIA, and EVV will likely see service to PMUS hubs, but mostly to CLT as PHL has capacity issues and DCA is slot-controlled. With DL adding ATL back to PMNW cities like GRB and PIA, the merged AA/US needs to add CLT service to smaller Midwestern cities to compete with the world's single largest airline hub. And I wouldn't be surprised to see cities not currently served by either AA or US, like SBN, YNG, and LAN, added to a mix of PMAA and PMUS hubs.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: pvd757
Posted 2013-02-08 11:02:30 and read 23347 times.

PVD-DFW could come back in a US-AA merger. Not sure PVD-ORD or PVD-MIA would make the cut, but DFW seems like a solid candidate. US has plenty of gates and ticket counter space at PVD, so any new flights could easily operate without increasing overhead.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-08 11:05:26 and read 23322 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA, although CLT retains substantial capacity to major markets (e.g., CUN, AUA, PUJ, SJU, STT, MBJ, etc.)

If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ? No way, CLT can be a complement to Miami, JFK and DFW asn an additional gateway to Brazil. AA would be wise to use CLT the way Delta uses Atlanta for international flights. AA needs to own Brazil the way Cathay owns Hong Kong. ORD to GRU needs to happen too why should United fly to Sao Paulo and not AA from ORD ?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-08 11:10:48 and read 23681 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 24):
If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ?

Huh? What does one have at all to do with the other?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-08 11:21:32 and read 23636 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule.

Will whichever airline is regarded as the acquiring airline matter?

What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?

Going point by point, in no particular order of importance:

1. My guess is the SAN and LAS flights are safe, as is the legacy AA LAX. The question to me would be the 3 PHX slots - I'd bet you at least 2 of those stay, but I also bet they try to get approval to swap one to LAX, maybe even two. But dollars to pesos PHX keeps at least 1x. A potential wild card is the fate of the AS partnership post-merger - I don't know what the deal is there, but that may come into play with the effective addition of 1x LAX, 1x PDX, and 2x SEA as AA codeshares (I don't see that being a problem though as it's just a codeshare between two entirely unrelated airlines). Bottom line: probably nothing too drastic here, just some upgauging maybe, and perhaps a VERY slight reduction on IAD-West Coast service.

2. Eh, I don't think so here, but it's a possibility. Since we're talking about beyond perimeter slots, the only hubs affected are PHX and LAX, and you're going to see both remain reasonably strong even after some shifting to LAX. But I see that as more of a good business move period and not one that would depend on where US or AA does the formal acquiring. Bottom line: ditto to above, little impact from this.

3. If my understanding is correct, these slots themselves would be kosher as long as it is a merger and not a pure takeover by one party. Maybe WN pleads for a PHX flight or something like that, but probably nothing too major.

3a. Slots more broadly will most definitely be an issue here. This will only further consolidate US's hold at DCA, and might make things interesting for the within perimeter stuff. ORD and DFW will probably see some upgauging going on, LGA shuttle might get a slight bump to 320s with the added AA traffic, BOS may get some upgauging, and you might see some shifting from PHL to JFK and CLT to DFW or MIA. Plus, those couple daily USX DCA-DFW flights (just one example) would be good freebies to hand over as slot concessions. But count on more than a few surrendered slots.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: United_fan
Posted 2013-02-08 11:23:22 and read 23965 times.

I'm hoping ROC gets mainline back . All we have now is 1 A319 to/from CLT . A n/s to DFW again would be nice. Our MQ CR7 flight ended a few years back.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: af086
Posted 2013-02-08 11:27:36 and read 23889 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 11):
I think CLT-GRU can work with more appropriate timing; I view it as similar to DTW-GRU or ORD-GRU. It's likely a smaller local market than either, but it's much better positioned for connections and AA is much stronger with Brasil point of sale traffic than either UA or DL.

CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the strong loads.

CLT-GRU is more complicated though: the 762 is not the best product out there, the compatition is fierce and the schedule is plain awful. I can see US getting better slots at GRU if they stick for a while there though.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-08 11:28:11 and read 23885 times.

Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 11:30:34 and read 23905 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!

What about it? It's even more unlikely to happen under an AA/US merger than if US remains alone.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AirDance
Posted 2013-02-08 11:32:19 and read 23803 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 22):
Many other cities abandoned by US in the wake of the PIT dehubbing that still have a strong Eagle presence like GRR, PIA, and EVV will likely see service to PMUS hubs

GRR currently has six flights a day to ORD on American Connection and three flights a day to DFW on American Eagle. Could we see capacity on these current routes reduced in return for flights to CLT, PHL, and/or DCA? There has been speculation/meetings with airport officials for the last few years about the return of US to GRR but it seems that the cost of setting up a new station has been the main concern for them. It looks like GRR could in the end reap positive benefits from this merger.

Also, could we see smaller Midwestern airports like AZO gain service to PHL after losing prior service on US to PIT?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-08 11:37:43 and read 23805 times.

Quoting AirDance (Reply 31):
Also, could we see smaller Midwestern airports like AZO gain service to PHL after losing prior service on US to PIT?

PHL is capacity-constrained, so the merged AA/US would have to choose PHL routes wisely (and DCA even more, as it's slot-controlled).

CLT has no such similar restrictions, plus it's in a growth market and it would be defense against DL's increased ATL-Midwest routes, so expect more CLT routes from PMAA-only cities than PHL or DCA routes.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-08 11:49:35 and read 23656 times.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 32):

Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-08 12:00:22 and read 23475 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
oting jfk777 (Reply 24):If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ?
Huh? What does one have at all to do with the other?

Because USairways had the vision to start its own servie to Brazil and NOT wait until AA did it for them. Why would any one think killing a profitable flight to Rio de Janiero is a good idea.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-08 12:04:37 and read 23445 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

Thanks... but you forgot to make that "35 million people and growing".  

Growth is the key word here, and the word that will keep CLT a viable and thriving hub.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyinryan99
Posted 2013-02-08 12:05:55 and read 23403 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

There are plenty of opportunities that could come to CLT for increased destinations (maybe not increased flights though). I think there are a few destinations in the great lakes region that could see 1x to 2x flights. Depending on how station costs, revenues, and network rationalization, I could easily see GRR/FWA/TOL/FNT/EVV/BMI - CLT being added. None of those markets can support MIA but could easily support CLT with a wide array of southeastern and Caribbean destinations. It just depends on who is in charge - US or AA personnel or a mix...it's going to get interesting that's for sure. I've got my popcorn and I'm ready to watch the show.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-08 12:06:25 and read 23423 times.

Quoting af086 (Reply 28):
CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the strong loads.

CLT-GRU is more complicated though: the 762 is not the best product out there, the compatition is fierce and the schedule is plain awful. I can see US getting better slots at GRU if they stick for a while there though.


I can see a combined AA/US keeping a few select Caribbean or Central American flying out of CLT but I doubt we'll see deep S. America remain when AA has the same flights from JFK/MIA/DFW with a better product offering.

It exactly this reason why I think we'll see a rather significant expansion from AA out of MIA into the eastern US.

I'm not saying CLT is going to shrink dramatically but I personally see this merger as a big win for MIA ... if AA doesn't run out of room.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-08 12:10:03 and read 23379 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

No, I dont think anyone credible actually believes the hub is going to be shut down outright.

What were questioning is whether there is a need for a 650 flight per day hub. I have said that I dont think so, but that I see CLT being more than 400 and less than 500 flights per day. I have also said, there is not much of a need to serve CLT-Europe beyond the UK and Germany on a year round basis and perhaps CDG and MAD in the summer. I have also said, I think BA will come in at some point.

All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe. I think GRU will be re-timed and kept. I dont see them losing any destinations domestically.

As far as growth, I dont see it beyond a couple of domestic points. Sorry.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 12:26:04 and read 23167 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 26):
Going point by point, in no particular order of importance:

Thanks very much for your insightful reply. I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger.

It'll be interesting to watch!

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-08 12:41:45 and read 23063 times.

Quoting af086 (Reply 28):

CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the strong loads.

CLT-GRU is more complicated though: the 762 is not the best product out there, the compatition is fierce and the schedule is plain awful. I can see US getting better slots at GRU if they stick for a while there though.

These work because the ton of capacity US routes through CLT. If US/AA axe any of that GIG/GRU become tougher to turn a profit.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 32):
PHL is capacity-constrained, so the merged AA/US would have to choose PHL routes wisely (and DCA even more, as it's slot-controlled).

Not really. US chooses to operate a banked hub rather than rolling and they fly a ton of props/RJs. They can either spread flts out into a rolling hub or cut frequency in favor of larger aircraft.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-08 12:44:22 and read 23012 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 38):
All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe.

I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.
Why Europe? What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere? PHL and CLT coexists now well as Euro-gateways. JFK is mostly for locals.
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA (not saying MIA loses anything). But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think. US already is profitable from CLT to the region, cutting CLT doesnt improve MIA at all and cuts off many smaller cities from the region as they wont have MIA service.

I dont understand why people think that AA will cede the Southest to Europe and Southeast and Midwest to Caribbean to Delta and ATL.

The WSJ has a good article on AA/US. It isnt like DL/NW or UA/CO. Those mergers were done to make the industry smaller. This is being done to make AA bigger. You wont see AA shrink US the way DL has shrunk or even UA has shrunk.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-08 13:04:23 and read 22813 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.

Doesn't non-GRU Brasil have available frequencies?

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 40):
These work because the ton of capacity US routes through CLT. If US/AA axe any of that GIG/GRU become tougher to turn a profit.

True, but US doesn't need 7 daily CLT-PIT flights to be a viable option for PIT-GRU traffic. Four is more than sufficient. That's true in most markets.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-08 13:07:45 and read 22798 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA (not saying MIA loses anything). But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think. US already is profitable from CLT to the region, cutting CLT doesnt improve MIA at all and cuts off many smaller cities from the region as they wont have MIA service.

I never said that CLT-Caribbean will cease to exist, Ive always said that CLT-Caribbean will be the major markets only (SJU, MBJ, CUN, PUJ, AUA, etc.).

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Why Europe? What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere? PHL and CLT coexists now well as Euro-gateways. JFK is mostly for locals.

Thats mainly because of the size of the airline. Im saying that the need for CLT-FCO and CLT-DUB can simply be shifted given ORD, JFK, and (presumably) PHL will serve those same markets and CLT doesnt have a large market to them. CLT-LHR/FRA are completely safe as CLT has a high yielding and pretty sizeable presence to those destinations. CLT-CDG is not a very large market and CDG is served from JFK, ORD, MIA, (presumably) PHL, and DFW. All of the mentioned are much larger in size than CLT-CDG, however I still see a demand for CLT-CDG in the summer as demand spikes. CLT-MAD could be a good seasonal one as well.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-08 13:07:53 and read 22802 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I dont understand why people think that AA will cede the Southest to Europe and Southeast and Midwest to Caribbean to Delta and ATL.

I don't think it's a question of giving up the Southeast/Midwest markets to DL at ATL. They certainly don't want to do that at all. It's a question of streamling operations and profits.

Example - CLT-GRU
Ask yourself just some of the following questions:

How many passengers are originating in CLT for the GRU flight?
How many passengers are connecting in CLT for the GRU flight with one connection?
How many passengers are connecting in CLT for the GRU flight with two or more connections?

WILL the additional options of JFK,MIA,DFW funnel customers away from the CLT flight?

How many of those connecting passengers can now connect in JFK,MIA,DFW with the same # of connections or less?

For those passengers originating in CLT, how much additional time would a connecting flight add to their itinerary?

Do we have extra capacity on our flights out of JFK,MIA,DFW?

How many corporate contracts do we have across the system will allow these customers to travel in international F if offered?

Can the equipment used on CLT-GRU be deployed somewhere else allowing us to ...
replace and retire an older piece of equipment?
enhance the customer experience?
open up a new route in the system?
upguage a route in the system?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-08 13:12:35 and read 22723 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA (not saying MIA loses anything). But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think.

The big check mark for CLT here is airport costs. If we assume that a lot of the connecting leisure traffic to the Caribbean is relatively low yielding/price sensitive, why not fly that through one of the cheapest hubs in the country rather than one of the most expensive?

Clearly there is a HUGE O&D market for MIA-Caribbean and that traffic isn't going anywhere, but - from a cost perspective - I don't understand why so many people seem to think that connections from the North East/Central/West are better served over MIA than CLT.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-08 13:14:06 and read 22684 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 39):

Thanks very much for your insightful reply. I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger.

It'll be interesting to watch!

Absolutely! I don't think they necessarily have to remain as-is either, where say a DCA-PHX just switches colors to another carrier. So it could be great for the other players looking to expand service elsewhere (e.g,, UA to DEN/SFO/LAX, DL or VX to LAX, someone else to SAN, etc.).

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-08 13:23:27 and read 22628 times.

As there is no AA/US Merger Impact: Pax thread, i shall post it here.

Does wither carrier loose some pax by merging? For example, a AA adverse pax who was a US FFer (and vice versa)....do they move to DL. Is this a fraction of people or a lot and does it help the other carriers market share?

If this deal goes thru, it does make Parkers deal with DL over LGA look brilliant as he will be getting back a lot of slots with the merger. With the merger, he probably would have been forced to divest some anyway, so at least he go something for them.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: c172akula
Posted 2013-02-08 13:33:25 and read 22559 times.

I'm hearing quite a few rumours about AA pulling the plug on DFW-YYC (as early as September). WS has announced that this will be one of their new routes (formally being announced on Monday).

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: shamrock604
Posted 2013-02-08 13:36:44 and read 22548 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 43):
Thats mainly because of the size of the airline. Im saying that the need for CLT-FCO and CLT-DUB can simply be shifted given ORD, JFK, and (presumably) PHL will serve those same markets and CLT doesnt have a large market to them

I dont see why CLT-DUB is such an obvious one to scrap. Essentially, the Dublin route was a way to get extra utilisation out of a domestic 757 that will produce decent yields in peak season, and can use domestic gates at CLT due to CBP in Dublin. It was launched probably because it was a quick, easy win using existing resources.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-08 13:38:59 and read 22512 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 47):
Does wither carrier loose some pax by merging? For example, a AA adverse pax who was a US FFer (and vice versa)....do they move to DL. Is this a fraction of people or a lot and does it help the other carriers market share?

You win some, you lose some. Take DCA-ORD for example: there will be more here because of the US fliers who previously had to take UA to ORD. Then you might be able to pick off a few more such as UA fliers who still want DCA but are willing to switch alliances to keep LGA and BOS access. There will certainly be some attrition too, which is to be expected, but overall I would guess it won't be too drastic either way.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-08 14:07:56 and read 22195 times.

Quoting c172akula (Reply 48):
I'm hearing quite a few rumours about AA pulling the plug on DFW-YYC

From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 44):
I don't think it's a question of giving up the Southeast/Midwest markets to DL at ATL.

Actually yeah, it is. I bet US is highly profitable from CLT to Caribbean and I dont see other alternatives for those shells. From much of the NE and Midwest CLT is the best gateway to the region, not MIA and certainly not JFK. In fact I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled, unless there is a lot of local or lot of unique destinations on the flight that cant be served over CLT like say CCS, LIM etc.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 44):
Example - CLT-GRU

GRU is a horrible example since I have conceeded that Brazil frequencies might be better used from MIA for new service rather than duplicate service. Show me why AA cancels CLT-SXM or CLT-AUA.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 37):
It exactly this reason why I think we'll see a rather significant expansion from AA out of MIA into the eastern US.

And overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money. AA can do that NOW, they dont need US to do something like that.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 14:14:09 and read 21975 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.

No need. There is an abundance of unused non-GIG/GRU frequencies already, both unavailable currently and opening up this year. AA will be applying for seven more shortly for POA/CWB.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere?

From Charlotte? Florida is the number one feeder, and MIA/FLL in particular, for CLTFCO, CLTMAD and CLTCDG; MCO is the biggest feeder for DUB. That's overlap that simply isn't needed. Florida connections to Europe are best fed via Miami, where there is a local market that is often 10x (and in the case of MAD, almost 20x) larger than Charlotte.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA

Why? Because smaller markets like Roanoke that provide virtually no feed?

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think.

Nobody is saying that. But those Saturday-onlys won't be needed when they can be served daily from Miami, which connects to all the important feeder markets even today. SJU, AUA, NAS, etc. aren't going anywhere.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-08 14:14:34 and read 21916 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: af086
Posted 2013-02-08 14:16:59 and read 21920 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
Doesn't non-GRU Brasil have available frequencies?

Yes. AA can start new services from anywhere in the US to anywhere in Brazil (but GRU) immediately if they feel like. US´ service to GIG does not need to be axed.

And again: why axing a route that works is beyond me. It got consolidated and this year got a summer upgrade keeping high loads and good yields.

I can see US/AA building up CLT as a complimentary hub to MIA. I can see single nonstops from CLT to other major destinations as EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, UIO, CCS (if Chavez lets them) and etc.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: c172akula
Posted 2013-02-08 14:17:03 and read 21897 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them currently.

I'd rather AA stay in YYC, if there is room for both them and WS I will be a happy camper.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-08 14:17:06 and read 21936 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!

Let's forget it. At least for years. Not going to happen.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 34):
Because USairways had the vision to start its own servie to Brazil and NOT wait until AA did it for them.

Huh???

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 34):
Why would any one think killing a profitable flight to Rio de Janiero is a good idea.

What's profitable now very well may not be post-merger. Shuttling cheap fares between GIG and MCO over CLT isn't my idea of a great business strategy.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 38):
No, I dont think anyone credible actually believes the hub is going to be shut down outright.

What were questioning is whether there is a need for a 650 flight per day hub. I have said that I dont think so, but that I see CLT being more than 400 and less than 500 flights per day. I have also said, there is not much of a need to serve CLT-Europe beyond the UK and Germany on a year round basis and perhaps CDG and MAD in the summer. I have also said, I think BA will come in at some point.

All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe. I think GRU will be re-timed and kept. I dont see them losing any destinations domestically.

Exactly. I think it is almost inevitable that CLT will see some reductions, as it is such a huge hub now, driven in large part by US' lower costs. But AA would be crazy to get rid of such a great hub altogether.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
The WSJ has a good article on AA/US. It isnt like DL/NW or UA/CO. Those mergers were done to make the industry smaller. This is being done to make AA bigger. You wont see AA shrink US the way DL has shrunk or even UA has shrunk.

I don't buy that for one minute any more than I buy Glenn Tilton and Jeff Smisek up on Capitol Hill pitching the "no plans for hub closures" line or the Delta-Northwest dog and pony show with "end-to-end networks." It's all B.S. I feel quite confident that this merger will result in a smaller airline than the sum of the two parts - no matter what P.R. Parker has been spinning or leakers have been positioning in the media.

The only question is where the cuts will happen, and how severe they will be.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 14:28:40 and read 21904 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

AA is not ending DFWYYC; but WS, which does codeshare with AA, will join it on DFWYYC in the late spring. Annoucement Monday.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 53):
Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc

No, there isn't whatsoever.

Quoting af086 (Reply 54):
And again: why axing a route that works is beyond me. It got consolidated and this year got a summer upgrade keeping high loads and good yields.

If yields are good, it's because of US Airways' awesome cost structure, because the average fares on that route absolutely suck.

Quoting af086 (Reply 54):
I can see US/AA building up CLT as a complimentary hub to MIA. I can see single nonstops from CLT to other major destinations as EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, UIO, CCS (if Chavez lets them) and etc.

Never going to happen. Why on earth would AA do that when it can serve those markets from Miami, on a short stage length, with higher average fares, and with connections to 99% of the cachement area?

DFW already serves the purpose as a secondary South American hub; AA does not and will not add a third.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-08 14:34:18 and read 21778 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?
Quoting c172akula (Reply 55):
Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them currently.

Part of me is a bit confused on this one. Dont get me wrong, Im thrilled to see a new airline here. That said DFW-YYC is about 75 PDEW and is smaller market than DFW-YYZ, DFW-YVR, and even DFW-YUL. The one advantage I do see is being able to connect people to smaller Canadian cities like YXE, YQR, and YEG that dont have DFW nonstop service.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-08 14:39:54 and read 21723 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
In fact I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled, unless there is a lot of local or lot of unique destinations on the flight that cant be served over CLT like say CCS, LIM etc.

ORF-MIA has been a solid route at AA for years and is a route that is heavily utilized by military/government traffic into Miami and onwards into South and Central America. In fact, if AA/US do merge the evening flight would probably be an ideal route for the A319.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
And overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money. AA can do that NOW, they dont need US to do something like that.

What't the difference between and RJ into CLT vs. an RJ into MIA. In fact, overflying CLT on some routes may actual provide enough feed for mainline service into MIA to return on some routes (e.g. IND-MIA)

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
GRU is a horrible example since I have conceeded that Brazil frequencies might be better used from MIA for new service rather than duplicate service. Show me why AA cancels CLT-SXM or CLT-AUA

If you read MY posts above I said that believe that there's a role out of CLT for SOME Caribbean and Central American flights to continue but not deep S. America. AUA and SXM may be good routes to continue out of CLT but many of the same questions still apply. If I lived in BHM and now had the option of connecting in MIA, CLT, DFW where would I connect? Which has the better price? Which has a more convenient time for my needs?

I live in MKE and flew to AUA last summer. On AA I had the choice of connecing MKE-ORD-MIA-AUA, MKE-DFW-AUA, or MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA. I chose MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA for various reasons. If MKE-CLT-AUA would have been an option for me (but it wasn't because it's not AA) I can tell you that I still would not have chosen the flights because they did not meet my needs (F class, mainline, stopover at condo on Miami Beach, connecing with friends from DC area in MIA, etc).

What I'm trying to say is that if AA/US do merge, there are going to be more options for some people and that's a good thing. CLT is not always going to be the best/only/or cheapest option for some people when payscales are the same across the network and the planes are becoming older and more inefficient.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-08 15:00:19 and read 21501 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled

I agree. In 2013 AA would be stupid to launch a host of RJ flying into small South East/Mid Atlantic markets, as you say it would be a fast way to loose money. It could have worked in 2001, but things change...



Taking my local market of GSO, we have 2x MIA, 3x DFW, 3x DCA, 5x PHL, 9x CLT.

DCA and PHL are probably not going to see much change. PHL might go down to 4x, but realistically I don't think that this merger will change much heading north given that AA don't fly to NYC or ORD.

Heading south could be a different story. I'm sure many will flame me for saying this, but I could see MIA going completely and DFW back down to 2x, with an upgauge in capacity to CLT. If I want to head to LAX or SFO or IAH or MSY or anywhere else south/west of here, flying 1000mi on a RJ vs 83mi and then mainline from there will - most likely - be more cost effective. Flying me on an A321 for 2125mi from CLT to LAX is clearly going to be most cost effective than 1235 from LAX to DFW and then on an ER4 for 999mi from DFW to GSO. While I'm sure many will argue that DFW will become the main east-west connecting hub (and I don't doubt that they are right) for small(er) markets such as this one flying RJs for such long distances is not, and will not be, a sound business strategy. Instead, I could see some CLT-GSO flights going to EM9 or even A319.

I could copy and paste this logic to other similar sized markets. RDU is clearly immune, and ORF-DFW is mainline so I can't see that one changing much.

Going with RDU, I could see LAX going to 2x daily. US still has a very strong following in NC, and with the proposed day light flight + a red eye, and morning and evening services heading the other way, then AA/US could wipe the floor with DL.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-08 15:00:31 and read 21488 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
What't the difference between and RJ into CLT vs. an RJ into MIA.

Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
In fact, overflying CLT on some routes may actual provide enough feed for mainline service into MIA to return on some routes (e.g. IND-MIA)

Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
If you read MY posts above I said that believe that there's a role out of CLT for SOME Caribbean and Central American flights to continue but not deep S. America. AUA and SXM may be good routes to continue out of CLT but many of the same questions still apply. If I lived in BHM and now had the option of connecting in MIA, CLT, DFW where would I connect? Which has the better price? Which has a more convenient time for my needs?

Well not DFW. I am not interested in South America. Tell me which markets will be cancelled from CLT. SJO?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
CLT is not always going to be the best/only/or cheapest option for some people when payscales are the same across the network and the planes are becoming older and more inefficient.

For most places in the USA, CLT is a better connect point than MIA going to the Caribbean. Including from major cities like DCA and BOS ( I dont think AA will cut service from MA to DCA or BOS).

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
I live in MKE and flew to AUA last summer. On AA I had the choice of connecing MKE-ORD-MIA-AUA, MKE-DFW-AUA, or MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA. I chose MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA for various reasons. If MKE-CLT-AUA would have been an option for me (but it wasn't because it's not AA) I can tell you that I still would not have chosen the flights because they did not meet my needs (F class, mainline, stopover at condo on Miami Beach, connecing with friends from DC area in MIA, etc).

You example is not relevant because you have so many parameters that dont apply to 99.9% of the traveling public. For MKE, the best connect point to AUA from the airline's standpoint is CLT, not MIA.

Now I have argued with people about this merger from the beginning and Ive been right all along. There were those who insisted that Delta would be a bidder. I said they wouldnt. There were those who insisted that US and DL would breakup AA, I said they wouldnt and that idea was nonsense.

I am telling you CLT will not be seriously downsized and certainly not in favor of MIA. In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT. Brazil-CLT is a candidate to move to MIA but that is it. I worked in Network Planning at major airlines from 1994-2006 and I know what I am talking about. I have worked on mergers and acqusitions before.

Tell me exactly what Caribbean points will be cancelled to CLT in favor of MIA.


The thinking here that AA/US is like UA/CO or DL/NW is incorrect. This is not a merger to reduce capacity and close hubs. This is a merger to make AA BIGGER and to stregthen its presence on the east coast.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: MCOflyer
Posted 2013-02-08 15:06:42 and read 21435 times.

I see routes to and from MCO growing as MCO has a lot of traffic to offer to hubs. As for CLT, I see: Growth. I see more routes cut from PHL with them being moved to JFK than CLT.

KH

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: N908AW
Posted 2013-02-08 15:37:19 and read 21170 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
I am telling you CLT will not be seriously downsized and certainly not in favor of MIA. In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT.

But even then, wouldn't most of those "unique connections" be either demanded enough to warrant a flight from CLT (which has far more western connections than MIA right now), or be so low in demand that it's not worth it for AA/US to save people the hassle of double connecting?

To me, MIA is a great gateway to the Caribbean (less so without as much MIA/SJU regional flying, but still), useful for South America, and a dependable destination for American in the winter. Beyond that, every metric you would use to judge a "hub" in its purest form leans towards continuing to use CLT as your premier hub in the southeast. Far enough north, south, east, and west (if that makes sense) for not only travel to/from the southeast, but it also works as a (relatively) pain-free connection beyond the East Coast. It's a terminal bred through and through to be a connecting hub for US. It's got the O&D. It's got none of the air traffic headaches that JFK and ORD have.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 16:11:40 and read 20952 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT

They are all good local markets, and they are good feeders for the MIA Caribbean market. ORF, RIC, and SDF are high fare local markets from Miami with limited capacity. These routes work; and will probably go to ERJ-175s.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
The thinking here that AA/US is like UA/CO or DL/NW is incorrect. This is not a merger to reduce capacity and close hubs. This is a merger to make AA BIGGER and to stregthen its presence on the east coast.

There is going to be capacity rationalization. CLT is too big for the combined networks. What it does today for US, it will share that purpose with not only MIA and DFW, but also ORD, if the carriers merge. The hub will still be huge - the second largest hub of the combined airline - but huge will still see it reduced by 100-150 daily flights.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-08 16:22:03 and read 20795 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money.

Unless that flying is contracted out at a cheaper price.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs.

Not true when you have multiple hubs servicing the same catchment areas with different missions.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Tell me which markets will be cancelled from CLT. SJO?

Shortly after AA/US start operating on the same certificates I can see the following international routes gone from CLT:

I don't have specific data on any of the US's CLT routes but from a rationalization standpoint which of the following routes would be better:

LIR (CLT, DFW, MIA) which is going to draw better from PHL, DCA, IND, LGA, JAX, TLH, MEM, BNA, CVG, BHM, XNA, GPT, ORF, VPS, MSN, MKE, ORD, CLE, DAY, etc. Would the market be better served with 2 or 3 flighs a day to/from MIA and DFW or 1 from CLT, 1 from DFW and 2 from MIA?

If AA/US can sell more premium seats on their 777s, A340s, 763s out of PHL, JFK, MIA, DFW, CLT, or ORD by eliminating flights from one of these areas then you bet they are going to try to do it. The big disadvantage CLT has and people need to realize it that it's not a bad hub but when you stack it up against AA's cornerstones in the Eastern/Central US (JFK, MIA, DFW, ORD) for premium routes and traffic on redundant international flights in the system it's going to lose almost everytime.

Do the same for the following:

BGI (CLT or MIA)
UVF (CLT or MIA)
ANU (CLT or MIA)
SJD (CLT, DFW, MIA)
RIO (CLT, MIA, JFK)
GRU (CLT, MIA, JFK, DFW)
MAD (CLT, MIA, JFK, DFW, PHL)
DUB (CLT, JFK, ORD, PHL)
CDG (CLT, PHL, JFK, MIA, ORD, DFW)
FRA (CLT, PHL, DFW)
FCO (CLT, PHL, JFK)
BZE (CLT, MIA, DFW)

A combined AA/US are going to look at the numbers and all the data and how can we become more efficient, where's the money and how do we get it and how do we keep it? The answers aren't simple and there are many variables involved but to simply think that CLT is going to remain the best place to serve these routes because it worked for US would be foolish if AA/US combine.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-08 16:23:27 and read 20830 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule
Quoting LHCVG (Reply 26):
My guess is the SAN and LAS flights are safe, as is the legacy AA LAX. The question to me would be the 3 PHX slots
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 39):
I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger


I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US. This route, like the AA LAX-DCA one, were part of last year's DOT proceedings and were picked by the cx themselves. They are both subject to re-assignment (read: cancellation) by the cx at any time with no notice or other restrictions. I do hope that things will not get to a point where the SAN-route might become a pawn in some maneuvering by the "new" carrier or the DOT involving slot reductions, or whatever. (I know that AA would not surrender LA-DC under any circumstances.)

The 3 PHX-DCA exemptions were granted years earlier and under totally different circumstances and (I believe) can't be dropped or swapped without (literally) an act of Congress. Of course that could all be swept aside by the DOT as a part of a merger approval.

I agree that perhaps at least one of those PHX awards might very well go somewhere (but not without a fight first from Senator John McCain!) (In fact I wonder if he will try to get some requirement entered into any merger agreement that the PHX hub NOT be dismantled or even reduced slightly?)

bb

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 16:32:52 and read 20747 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 66):
I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US.
'fan, you were in the back of my mind whilst typing up my original post.   I'm going to have to do some research on how each series of exemptions came about—it will be a hot topic for sure around here when the merger gets to the point of being submitted for regulatory approval.

If anyone has any info to share in regards to the awarding of the DCA exemptions, or links to old threads, it'd be appreciated. I don't think we'd need to open a new thread to talk about it in depth, as this is the official "routes" thread.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: strfyr51
Posted 2013-02-08 16:38:20 and read 20753 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):

I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China.
I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I don't believe that PHL can generate that kind of passenger load to Asia even if all of Philadelphia's China Town residents flew every day! I wish it were so since Philly is my home town. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. Philadelphia's mayor is wishing at best.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 16:54:23 and read 20701 times.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 68):
I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China.
I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I don't believe that PHL can generate that kind of passenger load to Asia even if all of Philadelphia's China Town residents flew every day! I wish it were so since Philly is my home town. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. Philadelphia's mayor is wishing at best.

Traffic statistics proove otherwise.

Philadelphia-Asia is absolutely large enough for a daily non-stop.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: WAC
Posted 2013-02-08 16:59:14 and read 20655 times.

CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: capitalflyer
Posted 2013-02-08 18:20:32 and read 20154 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?

I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available. On another thread a poster commented that the merged airline would control something like 2/3 of the slots. Ain't no way DOT will let that happen. You could see a couple dozen slots up for grabs.

With the reduction in slots, I would expect less regional/express flying and more mainline. Less connections as well (which would be good as DCA is an inconvenient connecting airport).

This might result in AA closing their IAD station. They have only 9 flights daily, 4xDFW, 3xLAX, and 2xMIA. Maybe they keep the LAX if they can't get at least 1 additional beyond perimeter slot pair.

Overall, I would see them having to let go of at least a couple of their beyond perimeter slot pairs. I think SAN is toast, but likely someone else will gladly fly to SAN. Same with LAS (only 1 flight a day). Likely they will concentrate on keeping LAX and PHX.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 18:28:14 and read 20166 times.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
This might result in AA closing their IAD station. They have only 9 flights daily, 4xDFW, 3xLAX, and 2xMIA. Maybe they keep the LAX if they can't get at least 1 additional beyond perimeter slot pair.

Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen.

Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated areas of the U.S?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: capitalflyer
Posted 2013-02-08 19:07:10 and read 19961 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 72):
Dulles serves northern Virginia

And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA.


The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kind of desire to serve IAD except for connections. They have a total of 17 daily flights between the two of them, 8 to CLT, 4 to DFW.

Don't forget that IAD is a fortress hub for UA, which also has LAX as a west coast hub and flies to MIA just as often as AA. MIA will be gone, LAX might have 1, rest will go to CLT and DFW for connections. I would imagine ops will be combined at Z gates. But if costs dictate, again I could see IAD closing.

IAD's future is continued international growth to the ME and South Asia and getting UA to pony up for a new concourse and trying to attract more LCCs.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-08 19:15:42 and read 19884 times.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available.

And as we know, a.net loves the smell of blood swirling in the Jet-A in the morning!

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
This might result in AA closing their IAD station.

I don't think AA's IAD station is in danger of closing. AA has a long history of a wide array of transcon flights to/from LAX, plus this route continues to support the QF flights at LAX.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-08 19:19:43 and read 19840 times.

Quoting WAC (Reply 70):

They'll be a reduction but come on think for a second that will most likely NOT happen

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-08 19:20:02 and read 19821 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 72):

Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen.

Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated areas of the U.S?


I'm not sure ... it's got to be a combination of not knowing the area and thinking no one wants/can compete against UA there. A US/AA merger is going to make a big difference in the area and I think they'd be very foolish not to take advantage of the changing dynamics of the FF base in the area.

If anything a combined AA/US will likely grow a little at IAD. They'll already serve LAX, DFW, MIA, CLT and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few additional flights into JFK, PHL, and ORD depending on how the new network ultimately shakes out, especially with Asian routes.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-08 19:24:25 and read 19817 times.

Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-08 19:54:38 and read 19687 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 30):
What about it? It's even more unlikely to happen under an AA/US merger than if US remains alone.

Why?
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

The demand comes from many Japanese companies beginning to set up shop here in the valley, escaping the economic issues of California.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-08 20:17:59 and read 19536 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

Especially since UA gave up on DME. My guess is ORD would be the best, since you already have service on Russian carriers at JFK/MIA to MOW airports and DL/JFK-SVO. However, what really needs to optimize the flight is to include SFO into it, since it has a big Russian market. Best bet would be a thru trip SFO-ORD-DME. And also more code-shares and other cooperation with partner Sibir/S7.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 20:28:04 and read 19508 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

So? How is that relevant? There is good demand between Phoenix and the UK, as well as Germany. It makes sense the flight fills.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-08 20:30:18 and read 19449 times.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 73):
And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA.

The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kind of desire to serve IAD except for connections. They have a total of 17 daily flights between the two of them, 8 to CLT, 4 to DFW.

Don't forget that IAD is a fortress hub for UA, which also has LAX as a west coast hub and flies to MIA just as often as AA. MIA will be gone, LAX might have 1, rest will go to CLT and DFW for connections. I would imagine ops will be combined at Z gates. But if costs dictate, again I could see IAD closing.

I think that is highly, highly unlikely. IAD serves a market distinct and different from DCA. There is still a compelling business reason to serve that market, even if just with a relatively lighly schedule.

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

I could see it - if it were to happen, I would expect a 763 from JFK.

[Edited 2013-02-08 20:32:06]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: ABQopsHP
Posted 2013-02-08 20:34:45 and read 19401 times.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 75):

Exactly! That would be a stupid move, to dehub CLT. AA has had a large hole in the route structure ever since they shuttered the BNA and RDU hubs. CLT is just far enough apart from ORD MIA and NYC to fill a need. I see PHX having more overlap with LAX, than CLT having any with another hub. As they digest the 2 operations, there will be adjustments made to all the hubs, and fleets. Just like DL/NW and UA/CO.

JD CRP

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: KBUF
Posted 2013-02-08 20:49:11 and read 19287 times.

This is as good a chance as any for BUF to get AA mainline back. They'd probably have to bring back BUF-DFW and/or start BUF-MIA, though (currently, BUF's only AA service is Eagle to ORD).

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-08 20:52:41 and read 19291 times.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
Overall, I would see them having to let go of at least a couple of their beyond perimeter slot pairs. I think SAN is toast, but likely someone else will gladly fly to SAN. Same with LAS (only 1 flight a day). Likely they will concentrate on keeping LAX and PHX.

Interesting post. I'm curious why you say, "I think SAN is toast." And yes, I'm sure someone else would love to fly it -- particularly a certain airline based in SEA -- but there would have to be a time and money-consuming hearing to determine what would be become of any beyond-perimeter slots that are surrendered. (And I don't know if anyone, including the govt would want to go through that again so soon.)

And they will be interested in keeping PHX -- 3 nonstops in one market -- why? This will obviously depend on what happens to the PHX hub; if it is dimished or closed, why would the new carrier want or need 3 daily r/t in the market? If it remains a hub, you feel that the carrier would rather have 3 nonstops in that market with none in the SAN-market?

I do notice that on the current schedules, LAS-DCA doesn't even operate daily. I don't know if that's indicitive of anything in particular but it could be telling.

bb

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2013-02-08 21:00:37 and read 19231 times.

Quoting WAC (Reply 70):
CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA

if anyone seriously believes this then they need to look at a map. JFK-PHL-DCA are nowhere near CLT, and for that matter neither is MIA, ORD or DFW. CLT is in perfect position in the new AA and will likely be the 2nd or 3rd largest hub in the system (I see their big hubs going to be ORD/DFW/CLT). PHL and MIA will be the 4th/5th largest.

I cant see why anyone would think CLT would be closed. Doesnt even make sense, you'd essentially be handing over the keys to the southeast and fastest growing area of the country to DL. Its not going to happen, AA is going to be a big competitor to DL for SE traffic.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-08 21:02:14 and read 19229 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 80):
The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles to see if they can persuade ANA/JAL to start a flight here.


MIA is too far for a profitable flight to asia, but I will give PHL the benefit of the doubt here.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2013-02-08 21:21:02 and read 19172 times.

I also see CLT gaining some flights to some stronger AA stations in the great lakes/midwest area. Places like PIA/CID/CMI/FWA etc and also places like MSN/MLI/GRR/SPI could see a flight to CLT. US started DSM and OMA last year and those flights are going strong.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-08 21:45:07 and read 19029 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 5):
AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.

Has the judgment been at all addressed in the bankruptcy proceedings?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 57):
Never going to happen. Why on earth would AA do that when it can serve those markets from Miami, on a short stage length, with higher average fares, and with connections to 99% of the cachement area?DFW already serves the purpose as a secondary South American hub; AA does not and will not add a third.

Considering that AA backed off trying to add Latin American service out of ORD, other than Mexico, you make a valid point. Other than the vacation spots in Mexico, I can't see AA/US keeping any flights out of CLT to Central and South America.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-08 22:39:50 and read 18963 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
MIA is too far for a profitable flight to asia, but I will give PHL the benefit of the doubt here.

Except it is not. Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of being a high fare and premium market to southern Asia. People pay more to fly one way from Miami to Hong Kong or Taipei then they do to fly from Pheonix to Asia round trip. Oh, and Miami-Hong Kong is a larger market than Phoenix-Tokyo.

Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

[Edited 2013-02-08 22:41:59]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-09 02:27:26 and read 18272 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):

Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service......it doesn't appear that it would be a viable route, at least on the surface. But than again, I am also a champion for certain routes that don't appear obvious to most, either, so I can relate to what you are trying to do. Please let me know what reasons you think this will work.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-09 03:01:21 and read 18190 times.

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 90):
It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service

He forgot to use the sarcasm font.  

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-09 07:32:54 and read 17869 times.

Ive read talk of Africa throughout some of these thread, so I thought I would chime in with some data. Below are the largest Africa markets from the AA hubs in PDEW. Bear in mind the usual talk of market stimulation:

MIA:

Total Africa PDEW: 200

JNB: 20
CPT: 9
CAI: 8
LOS: 6

ORD:

Total Africa PDEW: 210

LOS: 22
CAI: 20
JNB: 19
NBO: 15
ACC: 9
CPT: 5

DFW:

Total Africa PDEW: 198

LOS: 23
NBO: 20
JNB: 10
ADD: 9
CAI: 8
ACC: 6

NYC:

Total Africa PDEW: 1297

CAI: 275
LOS: 123
JNB: 118
CMN: 100
ACC: 95
NBO: 58
CPT: 43
DKR: 40

Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-09 07:41:01 and read 17807 times.

I expect to get ripped on this post

I think it would be cool if the new AA and AS worked together on CLT-SEA. The reason I say this is AS is a great airline and they bring so many connecting opportunities. For the summer have 2 or 3 AA flights and 1 AS (summer) 2 AA and 1 AS (winter)

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-09 08:19:59 and read 17744 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
Why?
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

But its apples and oranges. I cant say, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's networks so therefore, DFW-JNB would print money. On the contrary, it wouldnt.

As far as comparing MIA, PHL, and PHX to Asia, it breaks down like this by local market size in PDEW not including the Indian subcontinent:

MIA:

Total PDEW to Asia: 378

MNL: 66
NRT: 32
HKG: 31
PVG: 29
ICN: 24
PEK: 19
SYD: 18
JKT: 14
SIN: 10

PHX:

Total PDEW to Asia: 212

NRT: 26
ICN: 21
MNL: 16
PVG: 14
SGN: 11
TPE: 10


PHL:

Total PDEW to Asia: 215

ICN: 17
NRT: 17
PVG: 17
MNL: 16
PEK: 16
HKG: 14
SYD: 13

One thing that it important to consider when looking at PHL is that the area bleeds a lot of Asia traffic to the NYC airports because of the lack of a nonstop flight. I suspect PHL-Asia is probably closer in size to MIA-Asia.

Also when comparing MIA-Asia to PHX-Asia, both are mostly low yielding with the exception of MIA-HKG. However, MIA has an ace up its sleave in the form of MCO. If a flight could be marketed as a Florida-Asia flight, then it might work. PHX would need to try and become the gateway to the Grand Canyon, but LAS has that distinction. The Grand Canyon does receive many Asia tourists.

I dont think its a matter of filling the plane, that could be done from any of these three with the help of connections. Its doing it profitably.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-09 10:42:21 and read 17465 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

If the demand were that good, or growing by any substantial amount, there would either be a flight today or serious talk from the airline(s) about opening one. This is the same problem we run into with your CVG arguments - if these new routes or new carriers on existing routes were really that viable, airlines would be directly mentioning them in serious discussions, rather than the talk coming from unsubstantiated and speculative rumors from unnamed sources, pilots, friends, etc.

None of this is to say your assessment isn't necessarily true. But there is as yet no firm evidence of what you state as a fact -- that PHX has sufficient demand at reasonable enough (for the airline) fare levels to support n/s Asia traffic. See below:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 80):
The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

PHX may be much closer to Asia than MIA, but MIA has a stronger market for Asia traffic. MIA also is in a better position to offer one-stop connecting service between two distant regions (Asia and South and Latin America), to complement the O&D traffic. PHX would only offer another alternative for Asia connections in close proximity to two major Asia gateways from a market that has weak O&D at weak yields.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-09 11:27:10 and read 17357 times.

Well look at this:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
Total PDEW to Asia: 212

That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 95):
None of this is to say your assessment isn't necessarily true. But there is as yet no firm evidence of what you state as a fact -- that PHX has sufficient demand at reasonable enough (for the airline) fare levels to support n/s Asia traffic. See below:

Well see above here:

I don't know why he said it's not growing, because frankly, it is. I hear from my contacts here in the valley every day about how businesses in cali are proposing to move here due to the better economic conditions that Arizona has to offer (not to mention the amazing weather). The effects of the Californian economic crisis will be made well-apparent within the next few years, and according to one contact, it will be a "mass exodus" of asian business into the valley.

Heck this contact himself moved back into the valley from california (ASU grad 2009) after he convinced his boss that they could make much more of a profit here.

So it's growing. You'll see soon enough...and the addition of an Asian route from PHX to NRT or some other asian hub will only make that growth expand.
I'm not comparing apples to oranges here either. The BA flight is here (and is expanding to daily) because of the high demand, and the demand for asian service is growing.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-09 11:45:36 and read 17275 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

Depends on the yield. That's enough to fill a single daily widebody, but just barely, so yields would have to be pretty good. Edit: As noted below, PDEW to ASIA not to any specific destination. That would be decent for NRT, but not spread across a few places.

To your second point: again, it may well be growing, and I'd bet it is. But how much, how fast, and at what price is that group willing to travel? Correct answers: not enough, not fast enough, and not high enough.

So it's growing indeed, but that has zero relevance to a European flight on BA. That only says there is sufficient traffic to the UK and some onward European (and other random) connections, nothing about Asia. BA just says that PHX can support int'l service to one place, once a day. That's it, nothing more.

And yet again, you continue to rely on "contacts", all of which are unnamed, or like your infamous pilot stories, uncredible by nature. There is nothing you've provided here that is solid, verifiable evidence from a credible and knowledgeable source. Maybe your contact is spot-on, but nobody relevant has publicly stated anything about Asia from PHX. What I mean by relevant: someone in route planning or revenue management from an airline mentioning serious consideration being given to such service (emphasis on serious, not just "well we might take a look at this someday"), or a credible airport source with material knowledge of substantive, latter-stage negotiations with a carrier(s), or a known expert in the field who has weighed in with a considered opinion and analysis.

For example, there was an article a couple months ago saying that the KCAB was in negotiations with B6 to lure them to CVG. There hasn't been anything else since to indicate that B6 is doing anything other than testing the waters and seeing what might be on the table or potentially profitable. That doesn't warrant us saying that B6 is nigh coming to our beloved CVG. Likewise, talk of PHX-Asia is speculation at best at this point. If you have a knowledgeable and credible source like I described above, then fine. But to my knowledge no one has produced such confirmation.

[Edited 2013-02-09 11:51:22]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: B747forever
Posted 2013-02-09 11:47:06 and read 17291 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

You are quoting the wrong number.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
PHX:

Total PDEW to Asia: 212

NRT: 26

26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-09 11:51:18 and read 17329 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
One thing that it important to consider when looking at PHL is that the area bleeds a lot of Asia traffic to the NYC airports because of the lack of a nonstop flight. I suspect PHL-Asia is probably closer in size to MIA-Asia.

But Miami bleeds significantly to MCO, too.

Another thing to note is that the traffic figures are 2011, when Japan traffic was hit hard due to the earthquake. MIANRT traditionally has been closer to 50 PDEW, and I'm sure the others took a hit, too.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
Also when comparing MIA-Asia to PHX-Asia, both are mostly low yielding with the exception of MIA-HKG.

Not just HKG - MIASIN, MIACAN and surprisingly MIATPE are all very high fare ($1,350+ o/w) markets.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-09 11:52:24 and read 17231 times.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 98):
26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

And even then you have to slice that number in half to get the flow in each direction.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: B747forever
Posted 2013-02-09 12:03:37 and read 17204 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 100):

And even then you have to slice that number in half to get the flow in each direction.

People Daily Each Way  

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-09 12:05:25 and read 17228 times.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 101):
People Daily Each Way  

Check reply #1:

How To Find Pdew And Yeilds On Routes? (by jonathanxxxx Jul 24 2011 in Civil Aviation)

 

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-09 12:09:24 and read 17206 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

No kidding. The bottleneck here is that AA/OW lacks a decent partner in Africa. ST has KQ and Star has ET. I'm still hoping for that MIAJNB flight to eventually come online.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
MIA has an ace up its sleave in the form of MCO. If a flight could be marketed as a Florida-Asia flight, then it might work. PHX would need to try and become the gateway to the Grand Canyon, but LAS has that distinction. The Grand Canyon does receive many Asia tourists.

+ Latin America feed. PHX does not have that.

I'm visiting DFW this weekend at home, and I've been getting questions about the potential of re-launching India flights (not on this thread, but separately from friends and family) since the ORD-DEL flights were so popular. I personally don't see it happening anytime soon, knowing that AI is literally offering dirt cheap r/t premium fares and flooding the US-India market with bottom barrel seats and AA's cost structure, even post-exit, would struggle to compete against AI profitably. However, one might think that with a combined AA-US in the NorthEast, the potential for a nonstop from PHL or JFK could theoretically work this time around...thoughts?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: B747forever
Posted 2013-02-09 12:14:10 and read 17161 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 102):
Quoting B747forever (Reply 101):People Daily Each Way
Check reply #1:

How To Find Pdew And Yeilds On Routes? (by jonathanxxxx Jul 24 2011 in Civil Aviation)


Yeah, I know, but why would you divide the 26 PDEW? It is already stated in people each way.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: caliatenza
Posted 2013-02-09 12:14:24 and read 17176 times.

Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-09 12:16:00 and read 17179 times.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 104):
Yeah, I know, but why would you divide the 26 PDEW? It is already stated in people each way.

People misquote the numbers without dividing them in half all of the time. The numbers were stated without provenance.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-09 12:21:40 and read 17181 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 100):

I already did it for you. 26 is the number per direction.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 99):

No doubt, MCO and MIA bleed to each other. I've always said that a MIA-NRT flight needs to be marketed as a Florida-Asia connection as opposed to an Asia-Latin America connection.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-09 12:34:27 and read 17130 times.

Does anyone think AA could make DFW-MNL work?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-09 13:41:03 and read 16957 times.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 97):
Depends on the yield. That's enough to fill a single daily widebody, but just barely, so yields would have to be pretty good. Edit: As noted below, PDEW to ASIA not to any specific destination. That would be decent for NRT, but not spread across a few places.

A lot of folks may not fly that non-stop flight

1) You have to factor in those price sensitive customers who may do bizarre things like fly PHX-ATL-NRT to save a few bucks in the face of adding a few hours to their travel time.

2) Convenient one-stop competition is pretty tough too with multiple flights to LAX and SFO everyday. Not to split hairs but PHX-SFO-ICN is shorter than PHX-NRT-ICN though connecting on the way home in SFO will be a pain as in all connections from international to domestic in the USA.

3) Frequent-Flier loyalty is another factor too. The Skymiles addict may choose PHX-SEA-NRT on AS/DL to get his fix.

4) IMHO - JL's NRT hub isn't the greatest for connecting options as well.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-09 13:58:07 and read 16919 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 108):

Not in a million years. A route with 25 PDEW and trash yields?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-09 15:05:00 and read 16741 times.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 98):
26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

That's direct to NRT as a destination; the 212 or so I was quoting would be continuing on from NRT to other asian destinations, as NRT is an Asian gateway.

And I think this discussion thread degenerated into a debate about Asian service to PHX (courtesy of me) so as you all know my stance I'm just going to leave it at that.

And going to what LHCVG said I think maybe my credibility was shot when I posted a thread about a crazy rumor a pilot told me, just know that I didn't believe the rumor and the whole purpose for me posting that thread was simply to point out how nuts the rumor was.

Do I honestly need to "name" contacts because I feel that would be a breach of their own personal privacy. I don't want all of you going out and sending emails to my friends asking about me, because one- in Japan, that's quite rude and 2- about half of them don't speak english and 3- it's just not necessary, alright?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: willzzz88
Posted 2013-02-09 16:05:32 and read 16577 times.

Regarding MNL btw, I'm surprised AA isn't codesharing on JL's NRT-MNL flight? When you search for MNL on AA.com you need to select "AA, American Eagle, AmericanConnection® and oneworld" instead of just "AA, American Eagle and AmericanConnection®". In my opinion AA should be code-sharing to ALL of JL'es Asia destinations and that includes NRT-DEL.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AAIL86
Posted 2013-02-09 16:09:54 and read 16558 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
And I think this discussion thread degenerated into a debate about Asian service to PHX (courtesy of me) so as you all know my stance I'm just going to leave it at that.

Well I think probably all of us a-nuters have our pet routes that we would love to see operated. When I lived in Dallas my pet route was DFW-HEL. But my desire to see that operated doesn't mean I'd sit here say "gosh its going to happen".

PHX-NRT would be a highly marginal route at best.

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 105):

Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

Highly doubtful. US-India is a huge market for sure... but I think AA will focus on growing China/Hong Kong/SE Asia instead. The yields in the front cabin just aren't high enough to India to bother with.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

Correct as usual sir. We've heard a lot of talk about MIA-JNB but I'm not sure even with the size of AA's ops there that they would have enough feed to fill a 77W. Maybe if the reconfigured J/MCE/Y 772 could make it....
P.S. DFW-Africa is a fools errand.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: B747forever
Posted 2013-02-09 16:41:51 and read 16439 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
That's direct to NRT as a destination; the 212 or so I was quoting would be continuing on from NRT to other asian destinations, as NRT is an Asian gateway.

But that is my point. You cannot quote the PDEW for all of PHX-Asia and use it as case for a PHX-NRT flight. There is no way that all of those PAX would choose to fly via NRT.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-09 18:12:02 and read 16298 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

My thoughts on a PHX-NRT flight boil down to this: Can you fill a plane from PHX-NRT with hubs on both sides? Absolutely. Can you make a profit on a PHX-NRT given the O&D yields between PHX and Asia? I dont think so.

I would love to be proven wrong on that last part, I really would. For the record, I like Phoenix. I spent a very large portion of my life living in Los Angeles and LA county. I was living there when I joined a.net (hence the name LAXdude1023). I used to visit Phoenix 3 or 4 times a year to visit friends and I have never had a negative experience there.

All of that said, I feel bad for Phoenix with regard to this merger. Its going to lose on every level. The jobs are going to be sent to Texas by the hundreds and its going to lose the HQ. I hate to tell you, but PHX is going to smaller after the merger than it is now. Now then, do I think PHX is going to be downsized to a hub or focus city? Absolutely not. I also think the comparisons to STL, PIT, and even CVG are unfounded. PHX is a much larger market (albeit lower yielding) than any of those. I see PHX being about 30% smaller, but retaining every city on the East and West Coast. Where I think PHX loses out are cities in the Midwest and smaller regional flights. Think SLC not STL for looking at PHX's future. I also think WN will step in and fill some of the void.

I know you love your city man. I feel for you guys, I really do. If the merger meant DFW losing what PHX will lose, I feel the exact same way.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-09 18:25:47 and read 16254 times.

Re: DFW-MNL

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 110):

Not in a million years. A route with 25 PDEW and trash yields?

I was just wondering if a higher density 772 with J,W,Y might work at AA's largest hub considering possible military traffic, the number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-09 19:56:57 and read 16192 times.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 113):
Highly doubtful. US-India is a huge market for sure... but I think AA will focus on growing China/Hong Kong/SE Asia instead. The yields in the front cabin just aren't high enough to India to bother with.

AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 113):
Correct as usual sir. We've heard a lot of talk about MIA-JNB but I'm not sure even with the size of AA's ops there that they would have enough feed to fill a 77W. Maybe if the reconfigured J/MCE/Y 772 could make it....

Filling a flight to South Africa from the U.S. is so incredibly easy thanks to limited service and robust demand, it could probably work from Charlotte. MIAJNB would be a gold mine.

PDEW numbers don't accurately reflect demand in the ZA-U.S. market, which has a lot of double ticketing via Europe and Brazil, because it often is cheaper than going direct.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: 9w748capt
Posted 2013-02-09 20:45:43 and read 16076 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 103):
I'm visiting DFW this weekend at home, and I've been getting questions about the potential of re-launching India flights (not on this thread, but separately from friends and family) since the ORD-DEL flights were so popular. I personally don't see it happening anytime soon, knowing that AI is literally offering dirt cheap r/t premium fares and flooding the US-India market with bottom barrel seats and AA's cost structure, even post-exit, would struggle to compete against AI profitably. However, one might think that with a combined AA-US in the NorthEast, the potential for a nonstop from PHL or JFK could theoretically work this time around...thoughts?

No you have it all wrong - AA withdrew from ORD-DEL because their product was just so much more inferior to AI's remember? How could you forget - haha! Hope you're having fun in DFW - let me know if you ever find yourself in OKC!

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):

AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

That's interesting to see you so confident about that. Are you sure? I thought with QR entering oneworld and AA placing their code on basically every subcontinental flight ex-DOH that there would be little to no incentive for AA to fly their own metal to India. What would be cool is if they sent a 77W to DOH from say DFW, for example. But I would be pleasantly shocked indeed if AA flies their own metal to India again.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-10 01:01:38 and read 15739 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
Do I honestly need to "name" contacts because I feel that would be a breach of their own personal privacy. I don't want all of you going out and sending emails to my friends asking about me, because one- in Japan, that's quite rude and 2- about half of them don't speak english and 3- it's just not necessary, alright?

Of course you don't have to name all contacts used to source a story--and I'll be the first one to defend the right of a journalist to use unnamed sources when deemed necessary to get a major scoop on a story that wouldn't be doable otherwise. But blatant speculation using friends of yours doesn't fit that. No one is asking you to name your friends so we can quiz them; the issue is that you continue to rely on friends, parents, "contacts", etc. -- all of whom are of dubious merit because they lack the necessary substantive, material knowledge to contribute verifiable information to the debate at hand. Whether it's a CVG or PHX discussion, you always seem to have "sources" or "contacts", but as I said earlier, none of those are ever in any position to have substantive on the issue. My point about names was just that you aren't providing us anything that is really earth-shattering, and so sensitive that it might have be reported on deep background. Thus, if you really have info to sway this, you'd have some kind of citations or identifiable names to attribute your assertions to. The key here is that these friends/contacts of yours are not people "in the know", otherwise you'd have provided information to that effect to bolster their claims that you relay on here.

Like I said before, if your friends/contacts are right, that's great -- good for them, and I'm happy for them. But you have a history of producing rumors and speculation that is heavily dosed with blatant homerism bias and personal opinion, while being rather light on the hard facts that would be useful to us here.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-10 02:54:13 and read 15664 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

I'm also surprised that nobody is flying to St. Petersburg, either, not even Aeroflot.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 49):
I dont see why CLT-DUB is such an obvious one to scrap. Essentially, the Dublin route was a way to get extra utilisation out of a domestic 757 that will produce decent yields in peak season, and can use domestic gates at CLT due to CBP in Dublin. It was launched probably because it was a quick, easy win using existing resources.

Keep in mind that SFO, who should have a seasonal/non-daily DUB flight, doesn't. And although there are connections via LHR, many SF Irish refuse to do so, for political reasons. Plus there is a big demand for Ireland from SAV, and this offers an alternate connection besides ATL........so really, SFO/SAV figure into the success of CLT-DUB more than most people would suspect initially.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 93):
I think it would be cool if the new AA and AS worked together on CLT-SEA. The reason I say this is AS is a great airline and they bring so many connecting opportunities. For the summer have 2 or 3 AA flights and 1 AS (summer) 2 AA and 1 AS (winter)

I always was under the impression that AA always had its eye on acquiring AS, but they wanted to stay indpendent. The AA/AS code-shares work well here in SEA.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AAIL86
Posted 2013-02-10 09:00:28 and read 15254 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 116):
number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Maybe, but a lot can happen between now and 2015-2016. Unless the market outlook worldwide gets significantly better, my gut feeling is that they won't.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
Filling a flight to South Africa from the U.S. is so incredibly easy thanks to limited service and robust demand, it could probably work from Charlotte. MIAJNB would be a gold mine.

PDEW numbers don't accurately reflect demand in the ZA-U.S. market, which has a lot of double ticketing via Europe and Brazil, because it often is cheaper than going direct.

Agreed on the US-ZA market being hard to define because of double ticketing. Even so, given the fares I regularly see on ATL-JNB I doubt DL is breaking the bank on that route, and DL's connectivity at ATL is probably double what AA now has at MIA. Let me ask you this (and I'll quallfy it by saying that I'd love to see AA give MIA-Africa a go) - if MIA-JNB would really be a "gold mine" then why isn't AA (or someone else) operating it already?

For me, the BK process and the (potential) merger with US gives AA a great chance to go back and compete aggressively in the New York market, and as LaxDude1023 pointed out, probably their best chance for success on US-Africa.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: sonomaflyer
Posted 2013-02-10 09:12:18 and read 15219 times.

AA could very well return to India flying when they take delivery of 787s. It is challenging to make money given the distances involved (fuel costs) plus the limited premium travel demand but it could work from ORD or JFK.

I see no logic on a DFW-MNL route. There is no military traffic to speak of these days (Subic Bay/Clark Field) are shut down and what little O/D traffic there is would be at the back of the plane. If AA ever starts this route (which I think unlikely), it would be out of LAX with a 787.

AA has a great opportunity to leverage their MIA hub for growth to Africa and other points in the Southern Hemisphere. MIA's geographical location, large population and a combined US/AA network should make this a gold mine.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-10 10:24:42 and read 15110 times.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
if MIA-JNB would really be a "gold mine" then why isn't SA)">AA (or someone else) operating it already?

SA would love to operate via FLL/MIA, like it has in the past. Instead of DKR, but new rules instituted after 9/11 put an end to that. And let's be realistic here: it's a Star carrier and needs to fly to Star hubs.

As for SA)">AA flying to ZA via JFK, no, I don't think that's a good idea at all, because the feed from JFK is nowhere near ample enough, and the route needs feed.

And if SA)">AA had the aircraft to fly MIAJNB non-stop, I'm sure it would have considered it. It doesn't, until now with the 77W and 787.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-10 10:26:31 and read 15035 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 37):
I'm not saying CLT is going to shrink dramatically but I personally see this merger as a big win for MIA ... if AA doesn't run out of room.



I see MIA as static, I don't think much will change post merger so I don't see it as a "big win" at all for MIA.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-02-10 10:34:25 and read 14992 times.

If this merger does go through, what does it spell for the ISP flights? They are consistently full, with US adding a third daily frequency on ISP-DCA in October. Will we see a reduction in service or any changes in routes?

Maybe MQ would give ISP-ORD another try?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-10 10:45:22 and read 14972 times.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 118):
No you have it all wrong - AA withdrew from ORD-DEL because their product was just so much more inferior to AI's remember? How could you forget - haha! Hope you're having fun in DFW - let me know if you ever find yourself in OKC!

Aaw, how could I forget??! Stupid me. Where is that inane bully right now?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Mark, I often agree with your posts and rational, but I'm not sure I am on the same page with you on this one. I don't think that ORDDEL was a profitable, good performer prior to the AI nonstop. It was a survivor at best.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 118):
That's interesting to see you so confident about that. Are you sure? I thought with QR entering oneworld and AA placing their code on basically every subcontinental flight ex-DOH that there would be little to no incentive for AA to fly their own metal to India. What would be cool is if they sent a 77W to DOH from say DFW, for example. But I would be pleasantly shocked indeed if AA flies their own metal to India again.

   which makes me hesitant to believe AA will put India high on the priority list again. Notice how DL has not re-ventured into their nonstop US-India flights since they were axed in 2008/2009.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.
Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 122):
I see no logic on a DFW-MNL route. There is no military traffic to speak of these days (Subic Bay/Clark Field) are shut down and what little O/D traffic there is would be at the back of the plane. If AA ever starts this route (which I think unlikely), it would be out of LAX with a 787.

MNL is an ultra, ultra low-yielding market and geographically/practically speaking, is best routed via NRT for connections. Philippines is such a weird market. PAL is the only airline that flies nonstop US/Canada-MNL and those routes appear to drive the majority of their long-haul profits.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-10 11:13:51 and read 14959 times.

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 124):
I see MIA as static

I don't. AA has been growing consistently for years, and I don't see that slowing down anytime soon. I think AA's MIA hub has more "runway" left to go on growth - I see further expansion, both domestically and internationally, with or without a merger.

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 124):
I don't think much will change post merger so I don't see it as a "big win" at all for MIA.

I agree this merger will have little direct impact on MIA, but again, I see that as meaning MIA continues to grow unabated as it has been for AA for pretty much the last decade.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: dtwlax
Posted 2013-02-10 11:15:11 and read 14932 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles to see if they can persuade ANA/JAL to start a flight here.

Airlines will not start routes based on written petitions. Even if the entire population of PHX signed the petition, ANA/JL will not start PHX service because they know that route is not viable for them. What places can you connect to at PHX that you cannot from the ANA/JL destinations on the west coast?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of being a high fare and premium market to southern Asia.

But will the combined airline have the right aircraft to operate the route profitably?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

That is funny! How about signing a petition to start nonstop Asia service from Boise?   

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 103):
ST has KQ and Star has ET.

Star also has SA

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 105):
Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

I do not think so, especially with AI jumping on the route now.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 109):
3) Frequent-Flier loyalty is another factor too. The Skymiles addict may choose PHX-SEA-NRT on AS/DL to get his fix.

Or PHX-LAX-NRT

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Vctony
Posted 2013-02-10 12:16:06 and read 14836 times.

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.

By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

[Edited 2013-02-10 12:19:10]

[Edited 2013-02-10 12:19:48]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-10 12:18:23 and read 14808 times.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

Why?

Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX - BOS, LAX, and SFO.

You contradicted yourself when you added LAX to your list and said it was a wild card. In reality none of those routes are going anywhere.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Vctony
Posted 2013-02-10 12:28:01 and read 14790 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 130):
Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

Why?

Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX - BOS, LAX, and SFO.

You contradicted yourself when you added LAX to your list and said it was a wild card. In reality none of those routes are going anywhere.

First, I corrected my mistake with LAX twice. I meant LAS and not LAX.

PHX is going to be cut because the market just will not work for a "major" air carrier. WN flies just about everywhere from PHX and has a strong hold on the O/D market. With re-purposing some of the FL assets, I can see WN growing slightly at PHX.

We also must remember is that PHX has ALREADY been cut from what it once was when it was the main hub of HP. The reason why PHX was cut at that time is that some of the routes made more sense out of DCA, CLT, and PHL (and with the HP aircraft) they were able to move those assets (and some of the LAS assets) out East. PHX is surviving today because the next hub to the East of it in the US network is CLT which is clear across the country. DFW and ORD negate almost all of the need for PHX in the network. Not to mention DFW and ORD are located in larger metropolitan areas with scores of Fortune 500 HQs. With the US headquarters leaving town, PHX will be down to a paltry 5 Fortune 500 company headquarters.

PHX is a low yielding hub that benefits from US's current cost structure. When it moves to AA's cost structure, it's going to start bleeding money. It's essentially the west coast version of PIT and US bled money there for years before it decided to cut its losses.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-10 14:51:54 and read 14515 times.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.

By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC.

They may keep 1-2 weekly PHX-SJD/PVR/CUN/ZIH/MZT as well for aircraft utilization.

Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

Also, if WN decides to re-enter the market BOS-PHX is a goner.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-10 15:02:04 and read 14500 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC.

WS and AC are seasonal and leisure, except I think some AC routes to YYZ carry on to Europe sometimes. Same with Vancouver to Asia (someone I knew flew PHX to Vancouver and on to PEK or something)

For US I think those are either connecting or business-related O and D.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-10 15:15:24 and read 14481 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

Well to be fair, DFW-GDL and PHX-GDL are about the same size. DFW-MEX is, however, is over 3x larger than PHX-MEX.

The markets in Mexico (and all of Central America) where PHX is larger than or equal to DFW:

GDL
HMO
PVR
MZT

and thats it.

All that said, I think PHX keeps GDL/MEX/HMO/SJD/MZT/CUN/ZIH.

I also think PHX keeps BOS no matter if WN enters.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-10 16:57:30 and read 14342 times.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.
PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.
My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.
.


Sounds about right. Two other possible wild cards are DEN and SLC. In terms of passengers carried, DEN is the #1 destination from PHX. Also, PHX is the #2 destination from SLC in terms of passengers carried.


Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC..


I doubt it. In addition to WS and AC, G4 also has been siphoning off some Canadian traffic. Although G4 does to fly into Canada proper, some 75% of the Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the border and are known to travel to places like GFK, BIS, or MOT to catch a cheap N/S flight to Phoenix.

[Edited 2013-02-10 17:52:43]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: nutsaboutplanes
Posted 2013-02-10 17:03:04 and read 14299 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 127):
I agree this merger will have little direct impact on MIA, but again, I see that as meaning MIA continues to grow unabated as it has been for AA for pretty much the last decade.

You said it better than I did  

That is exactly what I "tried" to say...........I dont see the merger impacting MIA in any significant way, however, MIA will continue to do what it has been doing and that is only positive.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AllegiantFlyer
Posted 2013-02-10 17:21:10 and read 14253 times.

I think if AA want to be the dominant international carrier that they are going for than they REALLY need to step it up in Africa and the Fastly growing Middle east.

CAI,JNB,LOS,DXB,DOH are some good starters but it would be interesting to go for something out of the box like CMN

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: BlueLine
Posted 2013-02-10 19:07:23 and read 14071 times.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 125):
If this merger does go through, what does it spell for the ISP flights? They are consistently full, with US adding a third daily frequency on ISP-DCA in October. Will we see a reduction in service or any changes in routes?

Maybe MQ would give ISP-ORD another try?

I don't know why AA or UA don't have at least a regional partner on this route. I flew it twice a year on AA until '96 (my family started driving from Chicago to Long Island over the fear that TW 800 was shot down) and two to three times a year on WN until they dropped MDW-ISP last year. There were a few flights a day on WN and they were always nearly or completely full. I hope AA will restart this route in the near future.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mesaflyguy
Posted 2013-02-10 19:39:24 and read 13995 times.

Quoting BlueLine (Reply 138):

I hope it will starrt again too. I know WN just moved the flight over to LGA.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Vctony
Posted 2013-02-10 22:46:45 and read 13742 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 135):
Sounds about right. Two other possible wild cards are DEN and SLC. In terms of passengers carried, DEN is the #1 destination from PHX. Also, PHX is the #2 destination from SLC in terms of passengers carried.

I didn't include PHX - DEN or PHX - SLC on my list as both routes are heavily dominated by WN and both also have another fortress hub at the other end. I can see them staying as "wild cards".

I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: B377
Posted 2013-02-10 23:08:28 and read 13718 times.

What I haven't seen in this tread are two major route issues:

Will the new AA operate with the present AA scheduling policy. Currently all flights from a hub to a spoke, with few exceptions, are required to return to the same hub. Will there be some selective 1 stops scheduled between the new hubs? ie. ORD-SLC-LAX or JFK-PHX-LAX, etc.

What happens to the US FLL flights? It appears that they have more flights scheduled to FLL than at MIA. I am certain that they no longer would want to connect to B6/NK for their Caribbean/South American networks. Is the ticket price difference enough to sustain operations there or will they gradually move them over to MIA?

[Edited 2013-02-10 23:12:22]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-10 23:17:05 and read 13712 times.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 140):
I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

WN isn't going to be able to fill the whole void SHOULD AA choose to end the hub here. NK and G4 would never be able to operate here either. AZA is perfect for G4's business structure, and same with NK.

Unless some other mainliner starts up ops here at PHX under this worst-case scenario or a new airline is practically created, i'm not sure whats going to happen.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-11 00:31:42 and read 13614 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 142):

No doubt PHX will see a net reduction, possibly a large one, in flights, but PHX still has a viable reduced role as a reliever for LAX for connecting traffic, and whatever routings make more sense through there than LAX. It's not going away entirely - think PHL vs. JFK.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Caryjack
Posted 2013-02-11 00:53:48 and read 13598 times.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
Quoting crAAzy (Reply 116):
number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.

Not sure where you got the $1200. My trip to Nicaruagua (SEA, MIA, MGA, MIA, DFW, SEA) in Y looks like about $700 on AA. I've done it many times and has been up to your number...but DFW to the "Caribbean cruise destinations" must be less, Right?
Thanks,  
Cary

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Beardown91737
Posted 2013-02-11 01:04:55 and read 13600 times.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 131):
WN flies just about everywhere from PHX and has a strong hold on the O/D market. With re-purposing some of the FL assets, I can see WN growing slightly at PHX.

US flies to 70+ destinations, which is more than the entire WN network before FL. WN, with FL flies to about 45 places from PHX, and that is a lot for WN.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 131):
DFW and ORD negate almost all of the need for PHX in the network.

When US management gets to Ft Worth, they should take a look at the long and thin routes out of DFW which should be funneled though a PHX connection instead. PHX provides an inter-west distribution point (even though I admit DEN is in the best position and SLC is marginally second best).

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

The O/D plus the connections from California and Vegas. If you move that to DFW you wind up needing to sustain the PMAA level of MD80 service to FAT, ONT, and the like to feed the DFW-MEX. As far as GDL, they can just give it to AM.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 140):
While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

G4 isn't the kind of airline that replaces daily service on a network carrier that can offer connections. Neither is Southwest, which flies to about 65 cherry picked destinations, plus whatever they keep from the Airtran acquisition.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 119):
you have a history of producing rumors and speculation that is heavily dosed with blatant homerism bias and personal opinion

Homerism is rampant on US/AA threads, no need to call out individuals on it.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-11 04:27:37 and read 13511 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 145):
When US management gets to Ft Worth, they should take a look at the long and thin routes out of DFW which should be funneled though a PHX connection instead.

So AA should shift flying away from one of the largest, strongest, best-located hubs in the country and instead shift them to what is almost certainly among the lowest-yielding, and is definitely among the most-competitive, hubs in the country?

  

Almost without exception, AA offers far more connectivity - both domestic and international - and, again, is almost certainly higher-yielding. The only market in which PHX is really in a better geographic position to handle connections than DFW is California-Colorado/New Mexico/Arizona/ELP. Beyond that, nearly every connection PHX now handles can be more directly handled over DFW or ORD.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 145):
PHX provides an inter-west distribution point

No it doesn't.

PHX is too far east and too far south to really serve as an meaningful "inter-west" connecting point, and what it does handle it is suboptimal for. Any "inter-west" connections routed through PHX are almost certainly sold at a yield discount to the more direct alternatives. As an example, odds are that somebody flying SEA-SAN via PHX is going to pay less than if flying on a more direct routing through SFO, SJC, LAX, etc., not to mention of course the nonstops.

Again, the only "inter-west" traffic flow for which PHX is reasonably well-situated geographically are California to Colorado/New Mexico/Arizona/ELP. But again, most of the markets we're talking about are already well-served by nonstops overflying PHX (including AA's own flights LAX-DEN/ABQ/TUS/ELP).

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: MastaHanky
Posted 2013-02-11 05:06:13 and read 13399 times.

I was looking at the international O&D numbers for PHX, and it surprised me how little demand there is to both Asia and deep South America.

To put it into perspective, lowly SLC had higher O&D to places like NRT, ICN and PEK than PHX did for the same time period (2011). SLC also had higher O&D to Sydney and major population centers in deep South America like GRU, EZE and LIM.

PHX definitely has healthy international demand, but the vast majority of it appears to be Canadian snowbirds (9 of the top 20 O&Ds) and Mexico (6 of the top 20). Based on that, I'm guessing the odds of an Asia link to PHX aren't very good for the foreseeable future.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-11 08:15:13 and read 13139 times.

Yes, there is one route that would work for PHX and MIA, which is, well, PHX-MIA. Spring training for Major League Baseball is split up between Florida and Arizona. Have it for two months out of the year---there are a lot of people that go to BOTH the "Cactus" and "Grapefruit" league games.

Players often do get traded from one team to another during this period. When you have players relocate at the last minute, there is no 7-day advance discount......MLB teams have to pay full-fare. They don't use a team charter for this.

Additionally, coordinating the time with the existing MIA-SDQ would be good, too, with players coming over from the Dominican. Also, you'll probably get a few Arizonans that are headed for cruises on this one, too.

Question is, what's going to happen the other 10 months of the year?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-11 08:24:24 and read 13075 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 108):
Does anyone think AA could make DFW-MNL work?
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 126):
MNL is an ultra, ultra low-yielding market and geographically/practically speaking, is best routed via NRT for connections. Philippines is such a weird market. PAL is the only airline that flies nonstop US/Canada-MNL and those routes appear to drive the majority of their long-haul profits.

A lot of money in freight on this route, which can offset the low passenger ticket prices. But really and truly, DFW?? I can see a China flight out of a Texas hub(IAH more so than DFW), but not to the Phil's.

DFW would work for those in ORF/ORD/MCO/PHL which have some demand for the Phil's......but you don't have the biggest markets----SFO/LAX/SAN/SEA/LAS as part of it, therefore not enough to make it viable.Has to be West Coast or nothing.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-11 08:38:58 and read 13030 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 146):
Any "inter-west" connections routed through PHX are almost certainly sold at a yield discount to the more direct alternatives. As an example, odds are that somebody flying SEA-SAN via PHX is going to pay less than if flying on a more direct routing through SFO, SJC, LAX, etc., not to mention of course the nonstops.

From PDX, US, with few exceptions here and there, is usually one of the more expensive connecting options. Their nonstops to PHX are usually the cheapest, or tied for cheapest, when purchased in advance.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: hausauflennon
Posted 2013-02-11 08:45:12 and read 13009 times.

I believe, from the Barbadian perspective, that should these two merge, that we will lose AA's JFK-BGI (as is the trend in many other Caribbean destinations thus far) and we will certainly lose US's once weekly CLT-BGI. I can see Miami being retained twice daily, or perhaps bumped up to a thrice daily service with 737-800s instead of the 757-200 service we see now.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-11 08:47:27 and read 13121 times.

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 149):
A lot of money in freight on this route, which can offset the low passenger ticket prices. But really and truly, DFW?? I can see a China flight out of a Texas hub(IAH more so than DFW), but not to the Phil's.

DFW would work for those in ORF/ORD/MCO/PHL which have some demand for the Phil's......but you don't have the biggest markets----SFO/LAX/SAN/SEA/LAS as part of it, therefore not enough to make it viable.Has to be West Coast or nothing.

Well, considering DFW-MNL is much larger than ORF/PHL-MNL and is also larger than MCO-MNL by a smaller margin, your comparrison makes no sense.

That said DFW-MNL would bleed money from day one and never quit. It not even worth discussing the prospects.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-11 09:19:17 and read 13026 times.

Quoting MastaHanky (Reply 147):
To put it into perspective, lowly SLC had higher O&D to places like NRT, ICN and PEK than PHX did for the same time period (2011). SLC also had higher O&D to Sydney and major population centers in deep South America like GRU, EZE and LIM.



But SLC is an anomaly for cities it's size, because it has missionary traffic. And a lot of that traffic doesn't neccesarily "originate" in SLC, but rather from all over, with groups gathering in Salt Lake City and flying together.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-11 09:50:19 and read 12898 times.

Quoting hausauflennon (Reply 151):
I believe, from the Barbadian perspective, that should these two merge, that we will lose AA's JFK-BGI

Not sure why that would be. AA can cancel that now. US has no bearing on JFK-BGI.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-11 10:45:31 and read 12749 times.

Quoting dtwlax (Reply 128):
Star also has SA

Yes, but SA is a disaster right now. The real gold mine lies in ET at the moment which is keen on creating a "mini-DXB" hub over ADD to connect East-West, North-South traffic flows between Asia, Africa, ME, Europe, North America, South America and Oceania. KQ is similarly trying to develop the model at NAI.

These are huge, lucrative assets for ST and Star, but I suppose in that same vein you will eventually have QR filling the void for OW. It would still be valuable for OW to have a stable African partner.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 130):
Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Nobody is questioning the future existence of PHX. It's moreso questioning the future SIZE of PHX, which will inevitably experience reduction as part of the merger synergies, while nevertheless remaining some important magnitude and scale. That obviously does not call for a viable NRT flight in the future, sorry to burt the bubble.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 153):
But SLC is an anomaly for cities it's size, because it has missionary traffic. And a lot of that traffic doesn't neccesarily "originate" in SLC, but rather from all over, with groups gathering in Salt Lake City and flying together.

This is OT, but I always am intrigued by why DL could not make SLCNRT work, and opted to retain PDXNRT and SFONRT over SLC.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-02-11 10:49:57 and read 12717 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 155):
This is OT, but I always am intrigued by why DL could not make SLCNRT work, and opted to retain PDXNRT and SFONRT over SLC.

Larger local traffic.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-02-11 10:56:36 and read 12734 times.

Also something I haven't seen discussed yet is the LGA-BOS, LGA-DCA shuttle product AA will be branding under the combined carrier. I know they tried to duplicate this in the past using Eagle Barbie jets, but this seems it would be a significant addition to their overall domestic operation. I am not sure how much revenue this generates though - I seem to recall the Acela trains have taken a serious bite out of the shuttle.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: apodino
Posted 2013-02-11 11:22:30 and read 12635 times.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 157):
Also something I haven't seen discussed yet is the LGA-BOS, LGA-DCA shuttle product AA will be branding under the combined carrier. I know they tried to duplicate this in the past using Eagle Barbie jets, but this seems it would be a significant addition to their overall domestic operation. I am not sure how much revenue this generates though - I seem to recall the Acela trains have taken a serious bite out of the shuttle.

There is still a small market for the shuttles, but you are right, the Acela...the Door to Door Limo services, and even the Bus lines have taken a huge chunk out of the shuttle market. The DCA-BOS part of the shuttle is still lucrative though. Given the fact that the carriers are going to be big in both LGA and DCA, the LGA-DCA is going to be exclusively O and D driven, and while there is plenty of that, there isn't plenty enough that is going to chose air travel in that market, so either the shuttle is going away, or is going to become RJ driven.

I would expect a slight uptick on DCA-JFK to feed any international routes through JFK. BOS is a bit trickier, but I would suspect that any international traffic would be codeshared on BA through LHR instead of routed to JFK.


It is obvious to me that both JFK and PHL are going to have roles in a future European network. The biggest question I have going forward is how is it going to be distributed? The rest of the route structure is obvious. CLT will be primarily a domestic hub wtih a bit of International traffic to a few markets to relieve other places. MIA will continue to be a Latin America hub, etc. It is how the european feed will be divided among the east coast stations that is of interest to me going forward.

That being said, A West in PHL I believe has more FIS capable gates than T8 in JFK, am I not mistaken? That is the other big factor in play.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-11 11:48:25 and read 12596 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 158):
There is still a small market for the shuttles, but you are right, the Acela...the Door to Door Limo services, and even the Bus lines have taken a huge chunk out of the shuttle market.

I think where the Shuttle will help AA is with corporate customers - in all three markets, but particularly in New York. I agree it is certainly no cash cow as it may have been 20-30 years ago, but it likely still has value, particularly when combined with AA's now-far-larger overall NYC network/presence, particularly with corporate customers.

Quoting apodino (Reply 158):
It is obvious to me that both JFK and PHL are going to have roles in a future European network. The biggest question I have going forward is how is it going to be distributed?

On a pure flight-for-flight basis, I think JFK will stay largely unchanged, other than picking up perhaps a few additional routes to Europe (I could see a 757 to FRA and GLA, possibly a flight TLV). JFK is ideal as an O&D gateway for the vast NYC local market, particular as AA has - and will continue to have - the nicest facility at JFK among U.S. majors. PHL will remain the key transatlantic gateway, particularly for continental Europe: I see little change beyond shifting emphasis from Star to oneworld (i.e., additional LHR/MAD/BCN, reduced FRA, eliminated MUC/ZRH), and cutting ATH.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-11 11:53:02 and read 12583 times.

Quoting apodino (Reply 158):
That being said, A West in PHL I believe has more FIS capable gates than T8 in JFK, am I not mistaken? That is the other big factor in play.

I think there are 13 FIS gates in PHL A-west. There are also I think 5 FIS gates in PHL A-east. With a merger US/AA would pretty much own all of A and I presume they could spend the money to renovate A-east to make all gates FIS capable. A-east is due for a much needed overhaul.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Beardown91737
Posted 2013-02-11 18:46:03 and read 12202 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 146):
So AA should shift flying away from one of the largest, strongest, best-located hubs in the country and instead shift them to what is almost certainly among the lowest-yielding, and is definitely among the most-competitive, hubs in the country?

Not at all. AA as we know it today does not have the capability.

When the new management gets to Ft. Worth, they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW, and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel. Certainly DFW will remain a mega fortress hub, but minus some frequencies on less efficient routes which are currently served by not so efficient aircraft.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-11 18:49:43 and read 12210 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
When the new management gets to Ft. Worth, they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW, and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel. Certainly DFW will remain a mega fortress hub, but minus some frequencies on less efficient routes which are currently served by not so efficient aircraft.

With respect, I think that is completely divorced from economic reality.

If there is to be shifting of capacity between PHX and DFW, it will almost certainly be more from PHX to DFW, not the other way around.

The allegedly "expensive dogleg" of DFW is also a profitable one - DFW is a higher-yielding market than PHX, and can take advantage of economies of scale that dwarf anything PHX could ever possibly achieve, along with serving far, far more places far more geogaphically dispersed than PHX could ever possible achieve. PHX is not going to be able to handle the same amount of capacity it now does - let alone more - at the combined (higher) costs of a merged airline.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: cjpmaestro
Posted 2013-02-11 19:10:03 and read 12187 times.

I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

I have to agree as much as I don't want too. Even my friends at USin PHX agree. I would tend to agree with the assessments of about a 30% cut. That is about 175-200 flights a day at max. Outside of the hubs I expect some of the Mexico and BOS routes to last. Some Canadian and upper mid west routes could go seasonal. The wild card to me are the northwest routes which are very popular for business and leisure from SEA, PDX, GEG and BOI
from PHX.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-11 19:12:11 and read 12144 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW

Are you suggesting something along the lines of a scaled down regional hub for PHX, so that a passenger traveling say between SAN and OMA could continue to transfer at PHX rather than be forced to go through DFW, which adds a third more distance-wise?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-11 19:14:54 and read 12152 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel.

I'm not quite understanding how you think PHX is a viable intra-west or mountain west connecting point. SEA-MCI, SFO-COS or BIL-RNO are not economically feasible over PHX.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Vctony
Posted 2013-02-11 20:35:42 and read 11997 times.

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 163):

I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

I have to agree as much as I don't want too. Even my friends at USin PHX agree. I would tend to agree with the assessments of about a 30% cut. That is about 175-200 flights a day at max. Outside of the hubs I expect some of the Mexico and BOS routes to last. Some Canadian and upper mid west routes could go seasonal. The wild card to me are the northwest routes which are very popular for business and leisure from SEA, PDX, GEG and BOI
from PHX.

I live in the PHX area as well. This merger is horrible for the local market. The only positives I can think of is that it could potentially open the door for a larger AS or B6 operation (although both are doubtful). If F9 was still relatively healthy or FL still independent, I wouldn't be as worried about the merger. The worst thing is that the local media is believing what US officials say and they actually are reporting that the merger could lead to an increase in flights.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: peanuts
Posted 2013-02-12 02:26:20 and read 11748 times.

Good grief, these threads are getting long. I may have missed some posts but any speculation on AMS? Finally AA in AMS right? In what form? PHL as is? Something else? Add MIA while they're at it...

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-12 07:18:24 and read 11461 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
When the new management gets to Ft. Worth, they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW, and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel. Certainly DFW will remain a mega fortress hub, but minus some frequencies on less efficient routes which are currently served by not so efficient aircraft.

Ill bite.

The only route I see that potentially being an issue with are PSP and FAT. Pretty much every other route (including ONT) can full multiple flights to DFW based off of O&D alone.

What else did you have in mind?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Pellegrine
Posted 2013-02-12 07:42:32 and read 11394 times.

I for one will be incredibly unhappy to see Star Alliance lose a significant presence in DCA. My Star domestic flying will be disemboweled. I'm not traveling out to IAD to get on a UA CRJ that much anymore.  

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AAIL86
Posted 2013-02-12 07:44:55 and read 11376 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 159):
I think where the Shuttle will help AA is with corporate customers - in all three markets, but particularly in New York. I agree it is certainly no cash cow as it may have been 20-30 years ago, but it likely still has value, particularly when combined with AA's now-far-larger overall NYC network/presence, particularly with corporate customers.

The shuttle does currently have some value – but its future prospects look pretty bleak. Amtrak is far more convenient, reliable, less prone to weather delays, and more comfortable(which is why they have, for example - 75% market share of air-rail travel between New York and Washington). Whatever happens to Amtrak on a national scale, the routes along the northwest corridor are only going to get better trainsets with faster speeds, and the shuttle will get less and less ridership. Perhaps if a merger does go through - now would be a good time to consider scraping the shuttle entirely?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-12 07:51:31 and read 11357 times.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 170):
Whatever happens to Amtrak on a national scale, the routes along the northwest corridor are only going to get better trainsets with faster speeds, and the shuttle will get less and less ridership. Perhaps if a merger does go through - now would be a good time to consider scraping the shuttle entirely?

It's going to take billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements in Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut to appreciably increase speeds between New Haven and Boston, so BOS-LGA/DCA are likely safe for some time.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-12 07:56:32 and read 11360 times.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 156):
Larger local traffic.

HNL/SFO/LAX connections work just fine. No real need for SLC-NRT.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 153):
But SLC is an anomaly for cities it's size, because it has missionary traffic. And a lot of that traffic doesn't neccesarily "originate" in SLC, but rather from all over, with groups gathering in Salt Lake City and flying together.

Likewise, some of the so-called "SYD" traffic are actually headed for Samoa or Tonga. Extremely limited schedules to PPG/APW/TBU....so many of the LDS missionaries will overnight in SYD/AKL, but generally 1-2 days only.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 154):
Not sure why that would be. AA can cancel that now. US has no bearing on JFK-BGI.

I would think, if anything, MORE Barbados is needed. Starting to get popular now, thanks to popular singer Rihanna. Many people had never heard of the country before, are now going.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-12 08:04:13 and read 11348 times.

One question to consider is flying between an AA hub and a former US hub. On ORD-PHL, AA flies 5 times a day (1 MD-80, 4 CRJs) and US flies 7 times a day, all A320 family.

On ORD-CLT, AA flies 5 Embrears, while US flies 6 roundtrips (A320s and A321s).

Presumably, the combined carrier wouldn't continue the same number of roundtrips on these two routes, but I would expect each route to be all mainline. Depending on schdules and connecting traffic, I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: 9w748capt
Posted 2013-02-12 08:42:09 and read 11257 times.

Also curious what those of you in the know feel will happen to places like my current homebase OKC - will we stay about the same or get a few adds? I'm hoping with the Ejets coming on we'll get some upgauged service to ORD. I don't see OKC-PHX being added with the inevitable drawdown at PHX. Not only that but US tried OKC-PHX a few years ago and failed. The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL? Unlikely OKC-JFK due to slot constraints, but it'd be nice to have something other than UA's OKC-EWR as a nonstop connection to the east coast.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: N737AA
Posted 2013-02-12 11:44:00 and read 11091 times.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 174):
Also curious what those of you in the know feel will happen to places like my current homebase OKC - will we stay about the same or get a few adds? I'm hoping with the Ejets coming on we'll get some upgauged service to ORD. I don't see OKC-PHX being added with the inevitable drawdown at PHX. Not only that but US tried OKC-PHX a few years ago and failed. The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL? Unlikely OKC-JFK due to slot constraints, but it'd be nice to have something other than UA's OKC-EWR as a nonstop connection to the east coast.

Way to close to DFW and ORD for that matter to think PHX or PHL service is even on the radar. But you do have that odd sequence to LAX which is going 3x soon I believe....so anything is possible, I guess....lol

N737AA

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-12 11:53:05 and read 11053 times.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 174):
The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL? Unlikely OKC-JFK due to slot constraints, but it'd be nice to have something other than UA's OKC-EWR as a nonstop connection to the east coast.

One of the problems for US in a market like OKC (or TUL, OMA or DSM) is that the merger really didn't help things much because neither HP nor US was very strong there. There was not a lot of synergy, and few of the "flyover markets" have seen a lot of additional US capacity since the merger. In contrast, many of those markets, especially TUL and OKC, are strong AA markets where the AAdvantage base could support service to PMUS hubs that did not work pre-merger. I wouldn't say that OKC-PHL is a slam dunk by any means, but I also wouldn't immediately discount the possibility.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-02-12 12:06:59 and read 11082 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 168):
The only route I see that potentially being an issue with are PSP and FAT. Pretty much every other route (including ONT) can full multiple flights to DFW based off of O&D alone.

What about the return of the mAAck (ha ha) to BUR and OAK?

Quoting ckfred (Reply 173):
Presumably, the combined carrier wouldn't continue the same number of roundtrips on these two routes, but I would expect each route to be all mainline. Depending on schdules and connecting traffic, I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.

Very possible. Noticeably, the UA/CO merger brought a lot more mainline to routes like ORD-CLE, ORD-IAH and ORD-EWR.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-12 15:53:01 and read 10714 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 171):
It's going to take billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements in Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut to appreciably increase speeds between New Haven and Boston, so BOS-LGA/DCA are likely safe for some time.

I think the point being made - which I agree with - is that even with the existing infrastructure of the allegedly "high speed" Acela, it is still faster and more convenient than the air shuttles. On the other hand, I also agree with you that the shuttle flights likely are safe - at least for some time. They may well see reductions in capacity - as has already been progressively happening with both DL and US for a decade - but I do think there is still value in being able to bundle the high-frequency shuttle with other flying in order to attract corporate contracts.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 173):
Presumably, the combined carrier wouldn't continue the same number of roundtrips on these two routes, but I would expect each route to be all mainline. Depending on schdules and connecting traffic, I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.

Indeed. I would expect all the routes connecting AA hubs (DFW, ORD, MIA, LAX, JFK/LGA) and the US hubs (PHL, CLT, DCA, PHX) to see increased frequency and/or capacity where feasible/economic. Markets like ORD-PHL/CLT and CLT-MIA will of course very likely become all-mainline very quickly.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 174):
The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL?

I doubt it. In terms of connectivity into the northeast, there is little PHL would add than isn't already available over ORD. PHL certainly penetrates into far more markets in the northeast, but how many of those really generate significant O&D from OKC? Answer: I don't think enough to justify such a long nonstop flight on what would inevitably be a relatively small jet, when the huge ORD megahub is already served multiple times per day and offers connectivity to just about every major city in the northeast already (and with more likely to be added post-merger).

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 177):
What about the return of the mAAck (ha ha) to BUR and OAK?

I could see both BUR and OAK (plus LGB) coming back to DFW in a few years. One of AA's big problems in all three markets was that east-bound routings were being challenged by progressively more intense competition from lower-cost, lower-fare competition. US was one of those competitors. With all three of those markets now set to lose 1 competitor for east-bound travel, the economics of all 3 markets may well improve to the point that they can be flown again - even if just 1-2x daily - nonstop from DFW. The one I would look for in particular would be BUR - which had healthy local demand to/from DFW (and behind/beyond DFW to/from DCA) due to business traffic.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-12 18:13:59 and read 10539 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 178):
I think the point being made - which I agree with - is that even with the existing infrastructure of the allegedly "high speed" Acela, it is still faster and more convenient than the air shuttles.

My point is somewhat different. It's not correct to look at "the Shuttle" as a monolithic entity. LGA-DCA is already pretty wasteful, as the train is far better for most passengers. But LGA-BOS to some degree and DCA-BOS to a significant degree are easier by air and will be for some time. The BOS shuttle routes are not in danger. LGA-DCA might be, but then again that's almost hub-hub for the combined carrier.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Beardown91737
Posted 2013-02-13 00:46:55 and read 10149 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 164):
Are you suggesting something along the lines of a scaled down regional hub for PHX, so that a passenger traveling say between SAN and OMA could continue to transfer at PHX rather than be forced to go through DFW, which adds a third more distance-wise?

Yes, It seems to be working for US and WN now.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 165):
I'm not quite understanding how you think PHX is a viable intra-west or mountain west connecting point. SEA-MCI, SFO-COS or BIL-RNO are not economically feasible over PHX.

I get what you are saying about PHX being too far south, but DFW isn't the ideal alternative. To begin with DFW is farther south than PHX.

SEA-DFW-MCI = 2120 mi $487 AA (prices from Expedia 4/21-4/26) You win this one.
SEA-ORD-MCI = 2123 mi $336 AA
SEA-PHX-MCI = 2151 mi $357 US

SFO-DFW-COS 2056 mi AA only flies to COS from DFW
SFO-PHX-COS 1202 mi, but US only serves COS with a UA codeshare
UAX flies SFO-COS nonstop (operated by Skywest) 964 miles

BIL-RNO (neither serves BIL on their own metal, but we could pick BOI, or GEG, or SEA instead)
BIL-DFW-RNO 2425 mi
BIL-PHX-RNO 1474 mi
BIL-RNO nonstop 718 mi (college football charter?)

just for fun...
SEA-MSP-MCI 1792 $329 DL
SEA-SLC-MCI 1608 $414 DL
SEA-DEN-MCI - 1557 UA $316, F9 $322
SEA-MCI N/S 1409 $318 AS (same flight codeshare $318 DL, $336 AA)

Quoting commavia (Reply 162):
The allegedly "expensive dogleg" of DFW is also a profitable one - DFW is a higher-yielding market than PHX, and can take advantage of economies of scale that dwarf anything PHX could ever possibly achieve, along with serving far, far more places far more geogaphically dispersed than PHX could ever possible achieve. PHX is not going to be able to handle the same amount of capacity it now does - let alone more - at the combined (higher) costs of a merged airline.

I am not talking about shutting down DFW. With a mountain west hub, some of the DFW flying can be rationalized, like 10% less DFW-LAX or DFW-SAN which could free up planes to bring back DFW-BUR.

How would DFW yields be a factor on a connecting flight?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 168):
Pretty much every other route (including ONT) can full multiple flights to DFW based off of O&D alone.

What else did you have in mind?

maybe 10% less between DFW and LAX, LAS, SAN, and maybe SNA. Also, not overflying PHX with traffic from these places plus ONT, SBA, LGB, SBA, FAT, etc to places west of DFW. Then take a look at Eagle service to LAX to make sure it is generating westbound or southbound traffic. LAX-ORD may also be a place to look, not to get rid of LAX-ORD or LAX-ORD-DTW, but to switch LAX-ORD-DSM type travel to LAX-PHX-DSM, keeping in mind that LAX-DFW-DSM takes more fuel.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-13 04:06:05 and read 10017 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
With a mountain west hub

What mountain west hub? Neither AA nor US has a mountain west hub now, nor would they after a merger.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
some of the DFW flying can be rationalized

Again - why on earth would they "rationalize" DFW instead of PHX? So people flying SAN-OMA can have a shorter ride? That seems hard to justify financially.

PHX is the hub that's low-yieldind, highly competitive, and in an inferior geographic location.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
like 10% less DFW-LAX or DFW-SAN which could free up planes to bring back DFW-BUR

  

Why on earth would AA be cutting flights from DFW to major west coast markets like that?

DFW is a far larger hub, almost certainly a substantially higher-yielding one, and is in a far better geographic location to handle far more, and far broader a selection of, connections.

Again - what you are suggesting completely defies economic logic.

[Edited 2013-02-13 04:23:50]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: southwest737500
Posted 2013-02-13 05:12:31 and read 9895 times.

I believe CLT will get OKC and maybe TUL

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-13 08:01:05 and read 9666 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 178):
Indeed. I would expect all the routes connecting AA hubs (DFW, ORD, MIA, LAX, JFK/LGA) and the US hubs (PHL, CLT, DCA, PHX) to see increased frequency and/or capacity where feasible/economic. Markets like ORD-PHL/CLT and CLT-MIA will of course very likely become all-mainline very quickly.

Definitely. All the conduit traffic will require increases in gauge and frequency. Not only that but it will force UA do downgauge in those markets like AA did in ORD-IAH and ORD-EWR

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 172):
HNL/SFO/LAX connections work just fine. No real need for SLC-NRT.

If there is enough traffic from cities in the Intermountain West to Asia, there would be. Otherwise you lose those connections to DEN and UA. So places like COS, ABQ, BIL etc. There probably isnt that much traffic, but LAX/SFO and HNL arent a substitute for SLC in some markets.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 171):
It's going to take billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements in Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut to appreciably increase speeds between New Haven and Boston, so BOS-LGA/DCA are likely safe for some time.

US can do what I am proposing already, but I would think the E90 dedicated to DCA/LGA/BOS shuttles would be the best place for them rather than have 15 aircraft all over the system.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-13 08:15:27 and read 9620 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 183):
US can do what I am proposing already, but I would think the E90 dedicated to DCA/LGA/BOS shuttles would be the best place for them rather than have 15 aircraft all over the system.

They might even end up dropping down to E75's or 70's, but I'd think it could be sustainable at one of those levels for a while. DL's Shuttle might disappear first, but I would think a combined carrier with essentiall hub-to-hub on LGA-DCA could keep the Shuttle viable.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-13 12:26:17 and read 9402 times.

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 120):
I'm also surprised that nobody is flying to St. Petersburg, either, not even Aeroflot.

I believe at one point several years ago US was thinking about PHL-DME. Didn't happen. A combined airline could easily make DME work.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

So you are predicting PHX to be a spoke with basically only hub flights and then maybe a couple of P2P? Uh, that large of a market demands a bit more than a pulldown to a spoke.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 131):
PHX is a low yielding hub that benefits from US's current cost structure. When it moves to AA's cost structure, it's going to start bleeding money. It's essentially the west coast version of PIT and US bled money there for years before it decided to cut its losses.

PHX is nothing like PIT nor are their situations similar. PIT is a spoke in the US network now. PHX is destined to remain a focus city.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Also, if WN decides to re-enter the market BOS-PHX is a goner.

Hardly. WN in BOS doesn't scare anybody.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: ripcordd
Posted 2013-02-13 12:37:23 and read 9378 times.

PHX will be pulled down greatly over the years..It will be a hub but they are going to funnel most east coast traffic thru DFW & ORD I see LAX picking up a few more cities to take care of connecting passengers on the west coast side.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-13 12:46:49 and read 9343 times.

One thing seems certain to me - AA will still need the AS codeshare to stay relevant in the Northwest and Upper Rockies regions, unless a lot of long and thin E-jet routes are started from ORD and/or DFW.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-13 13:07:13 and read 9272 times.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
but DFW isn't the ideal alternative. To begin with DFW is farther south than PHX.

DFW is farther South by a degree or two perhaps, but for sake of argument there's no difference between the two in how far South they are. As far as alternatives, PHX's bread-and-butter are East-West connections, something DFW can easily handle. The number of inter-West connections done over PHX will most likely just disappear as their yields are simply too low and aren't something the combined carrier could operate profitably. But for a lot of connection (SEA-XXX-MCI), going through DFW is by no means appreciably worse than over PHX.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-02-13 15:50:36 and read 9092 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 187):
One thing seems certain to me - AA will still need the AS codeshare to stay relevant in the Northwest and Upper Rockies regions, unless a lot of long and thin E-jet routes are started from ORD and/or DFW.

Agreed. I was thinking about this too. AS is probably glad to see this merger happen (assuming the codeshare stays intact post, which I can't see why it wouldn't) as it will provide more feed to their system.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: ELAL 744
Posted 2013-02-13 17:01:15 and read 8922 times.

I don’t mean to go off subject but:
American assumed responsibility for TWA’s station in Tel Aviv including some whopping severance and pension payments – which they chose not to pay when the station was closed. The former TWA staff has a court order basically enabling the seizure of an American Airlines aircraft if they land in Tel Aviv to force AA to pay up and the amount is suposed to be larger than $20M.
With US Airways and American Airlines merging, what will happen to the US Airways flight to Tel Aviv? Wil they pay up or stop flying?
Does anyone know how the merger will address this issue?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: hausauflennon
Posted 2013-02-13 17:05:51 and read 8910 times.

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 172):
I would think, if anything, MORE Barbados is needed. Starting to get popular now, thanks to popular singer Rihanna. Many people had never heard of the country before, are now going.

That is the conventional school of thought, but AA has been seeing quite the unflattering performance on the JFK-BGI route recently. B6 gives them a good fight on the route with tourist traffic, and the latter's fanbase, as it were, in the local market is increasing, so now more Barbadians (Bajans) are opting to go 'blue' over AA.

Hopefully, being an aviation universalist and not being particularly loyal to any one carrier, there will be enough pie, i.e. tourists (Rihanna navy or otherwise) to satisfy both boardrooms in Dallas and in the Big Apple.

I however strongly believe AA will drop JFK-BGI as has been the case in other Caribbean territories, at least temporarily and perhaps reappear with different, smaller and more efficient equipment on the route. Our peaks (Crop Over festival late Jul - Aug, Barbadian summer travel Jul - early Sept, and winter Dec - Apr) can be boom times for carriers, but those troughs? They can erase any remarkable performance if not mitigated against or planned for.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: blue100
Posted 2013-02-13 17:36:14 and read 8772 times.

While this question will certainly be influenced by whichever alliance the merged company will stick with, what is going to happen to all of the US flights currently flying to FRA and MUC? I believe they serve both FRA and MUC from a couple of hubs (I imagine CLT and PHL are a given).

If the combined carrier selects Oneworld, would these flights to FRA and MUC be shifted to LHR? Given the slot constraints at LHR, are we likely to see more of an increase in capacity, rather than an increase in actual flying? I would expect the airline to maintain a presence in FRA and MUC. However, I can also see the combined carrier increasing flying into TXL / BER / DUS to feed AB.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-13 17:41:14 and read 8804 times.

Quoting hausauflennon (Reply 191):
I however strongly believe AA will drop JFK-BGI as has been the case in other Caribbean territories, at least temporarily and perhaps reappear with different, smaller and more efficient equipment on the route. Our peaks (Crop Over festival late Jul - Aug, Barbadian summer travel Jul - early Sept, and winter Dec - Apr) can be boom times for carriers, but those troughs? They can erase any remarkable performance if not mitigated against or planned for.

JFKBGI is one of AA's absolute top performing Caribbean routes, FYI. It does so well for AA, that is is scheduled on a long-haul 757 so they can serve the route with lie-flat beds in First.

Quoting blue100 (Reply 192):
all of the US flights currently flying to FRA and MUC? I believe they serve both FRA and MUC from a couple of hubs (I imagine CLT and PHL are a given).

PHLFRA, PHLMUC and CLTFRA. That's it.

[Edited 2013-02-13 17:42:02]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FlyingSicilian
Posted 2013-02-13 18:15:06 and read 8644 times.

So what are the odds of IAH getting a Term A Adm. Club now?
Combined the carrier should have 25-30 daily flights I presume.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-13 18:35:40 and read 8583 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 193):
PHLFRA, PHLMUC and CLTFRA. That's it.

Well yes that is it but PHL/CLT-FRA are seasonally double daily and you also have LH on PHL-FRA. Since they will leave Star it is almost a given there will be cuts. I suspect LH will reevaluate CLT-MUC as well. If they keep it I highly doubt it remains a 346.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-13 18:53:57 and read 8495 times.

Quoting hausauflennon (Reply 191):
That is the conventional school of thought, but AA has been seeing quite the unflattering performance on the JFK-BGI route recently. B6 gives them a good fight on the route with tourist traffic, and the latter's fanbase, as it were, in the local market is increasing, so now more Barbadians (Bajans) are opting to go 'blue' over AA.

Could it perhaps be the JFK hub? Maybe moving it to SJU or DFW or ORD or somewhere else have a better feed-in? A different set of connections may be the key.

[Edited 2013-02-13 18:58:12]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-02-13 19:04:20 and read 8446 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 185):
I believe at one point several years ago US was thinking about PHL-DME. Didn't happen. A combined airline could easily make DME work.

SFO and SEA have to be part of the equation. These are two big markets for Russia, in fact, Aeroflot use to fly to both...and had to drop them because their lease was up on the planes.....and never put the service back on.

Both AA and UA were not very good at promoting their DME service, in fact, it was next to nothing. Many people in SFO/SEA, who could have used their flights, did not. Yes, the combined airline will give it a better feed, but the flight needs to be promoted, especially in those two cities.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mke717spotter
Posted 2013-02-13 19:11:53 and read 8429 times.

Well I doubt that TUS-PHX is still going to be flown with 10x daily CR9s.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-13 19:15:47 and read 8413 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 185):
A combined airline could easily make DME work.

Perhaps, although if that were to happen I suspect that one would make the most sense from JFK, not PHL, with perhaps a 5-7x weekly 767 in the winter and a daily 767 or maybe even A330 in the summer. It would also have to be timed for very convenient connections to/from MIA, ORD, SEA, LAX, SFO and DCA. All of which would be entirely feasible at JFK.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 187):
One thing seems certain to me - AA will still need the AS codeshare to stay relevant in the Northwest and Upper Rockies regions, unless a lot of long and thin E-jet routes are started from ORD and/or DFW.

  

I highly doubt the alliance with Alaska is going anywhere - at least if AA has anything to do with it. It's almost entirely value-add to AA. Alaska provides feed in a region of the country where AA will never be able to have a particularly strong, meaningful presence on account of its hub structure. As such, Alaska provides excellent access to the Pacific Northwest, not to mention Alaska and up and down the West Coast.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 188):
As far as alternatives, PHX's bread-and-butter are East-West connections, something DFW can easily handle.

  

This is the ultimate bottom line. PHX's primary reason for existing as a hub (at ;east in its current form) for USAirways will cease tomorrow morning.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-13 19:49:38 and read 8272 times.

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 198):
Well I doubt that TUS-PHX is still going to be flown with 10x daily CR9s.

It will be flown still. It's quite a necessary route, until some sort of train is built between the two cities. Simply driving this far isn't much of an option for a lot of Arizonians.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-13 20:10:41 and read 8208 times.

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 198):
Well I doubt that TUS-PHX is still going to be flown with 10x daily CR9s.
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 200):
It will be flown still. It's quite a necessary route, until some sort of train is built between the two cities. Simply driving this far isn't much of an option for a lot of Arizonians.

That's a pretty definitive statement, PHX'. I personally agree with mke717'. With a US hub at Sky Harbor, frequent PHX-TUS makes sense and the presence of a/c to run a shuttle-type service intra-AZ is a given.

With PHX's future very probably changing dramatically with the new AA, I don't see any certainty that the route will exist at all, let alone at the current level of service.

As I've mentioned before, I'm kind of anxious to see what sort of involvement and pressure Sen. John McCain can muster in this whole merger process with regards to what happens to PHX...

bb

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-13 20:24:27 and read 8238 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 200):

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 198):
Well I doubt that TUS-PHX is still going to be flown with 10x daily CR9s.

It will be flown still. It's quite a necessary route, until some sort of train is built between the two cities. Simply driving this far isn't much of an option for a lot of Arizonians.


7 local passengers fly per day between Tucson and Phoeniz, on average. So either people are happy driving, or 7 people represents a lot of Arizonans.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-13 21:22:34 and read 8075 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 202):
7 local passengers fly per day between Tucson and Phoeniz, on average. So either people are happy driving, or 7 people represents a lot of Arizonans.

I'm sure this market is just the same as SAN-LAX which averages about 40 PDEW in O&D traffic. But there are about 25 r/t per day split between 3 cx in the market, obviously carrying mostly connecting pax.

As service at PHX is reduced, so will connecting opportunities and I see it likely that the frequency of flights between TUS and PHX will decrease and, depending on what type of operation finally exists at Sky Harbor on AA, may disappear entirely.

bb

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: realsim
Posted 2013-02-14 04:09:40 and read 7897 times.

AA/US have released the combined route maps:

- Domestic: http://newamericanarriving.com/image...COMBINED_DOMESTIC_MAP_112712sm.pdf
- International: http://newamericanarriving.com/image...MBINED_INTL_112712sm_optimized.pdf

And here can be seen the combined destinations, with a different color for "shared locations", "AA locations" and "US locations": http://newamericanarriving.com/customers/more-flights

US brings a lot of new destinations for AA in the East Coast, and some in the West Coast, Mexico and Europe. Apart from that, it is clear that the largest gaps the new carrier will have are NorCal and the Pacific Northwest, where AS should help, and Asia, where the only thing that AA can do is entering in already served and quite competitive routes.

A big question is if the planned codeshare agreement with B6 will go ahead or not. AA clearly stated they wanted a c/s with B6 in JFK, but now this could impact their new hub at PHL.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: micstatic
Posted 2013-02-14 04:42:03 and read 7769 times.

Wonder what the prognosis is for HVN-PHL?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LH422
Posted 2013-02-14 06:07:55 and read 7670 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 195):
Well yes that is it but PHL/CLT-FRA are seasonally double daily and you also have LH on PHL-FRA. Since they will leave Star it is almost a given there will be cuts. I suspect LH will reevaluate CLT-MUC as well. If they keep it I highly doubt it remains a 346.

I'm wondering if the LH CLT will move to FRA. CLT is one of the few LH longhaul destinations that only operate out of MUC, the reason most likely being the 1-2 daily US CLT-FRA flights.

I also wonder if there might be flights to other former AA hubs other than DFW at some point again. To me, it would make more sense for the new AA to operate FRA-ORD instead of FRA-CLT.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LY777
Posted 2013-02-14 06:15:00 and read 7613 times.

Do you think that the MIA-YUL route will survive after the merger?
I must fly this route this summer, and I begin to worry...

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-14 06:35:27 and read 7559 times.

Quoting LH422 (Reply 206):
I'm wondering if the LH CLT will move to FRA. CLT is one of the few LH longhaul destinations that only operate out of MUC, the reason most likely being the 1-2 daily US CLT-FRA flights.

I also wonder if there might be flights to other former AA hubs other than DFW at some point again. To me, it would make more sense for the new AA to operate FRA-ORD instead of FRA-CLT.

I think there is actually some business traffic between CLT-MUC which is why I suggested LH "may" keep it but downgrade the equipment.

You can't just move a flt from one hub to another and expect that it will work. I don't know what/if AA is currently operating on ORD-FRA but I suspect UA/LH has the ORD-FRA market wrapped up pretty solid.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: realsim
Posted 2013-02-14 06:49:15 and read 7495 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 207):
Do you think that the MIA-YUL route will survive after the merger?
I must fly this route this summer, and I begin to worry...

Don't know why it shouldn't survive. It has 3 daily 738s for a long time now, so it won't be axed.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Flytravel
Posted 2013-02-14 07:14:42 and read 7428 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 173):
I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.

I just hope another carrier launches PHL-DFW/DAL. Maybe WN, but maybe B6. I just do not think the 1x daily by Spirit launching next month will count enough, and Spirit's overall product is akin to Motel 6 or Rodeway Inn in the air, popular, but likely business pax will avoid it.

[Edited 2013-02-14 07:28:43]

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-14 08:57:07 and read 7226 times.

Quoting LH422 (Reply 206):
Quoting usairways85 (Reply 195):
Well yes that is it but PHL/CLT-FRA are seasonally double daily and you also have LH on PHL-FRA. Since they will leave Star it is almost a given there will be cuts. I suspect LH will reevaluate CLT-MUC as well. If they keep it I highly doubt it remains a 346.

I'm wondering if the LH CLT will move to FRA.

Why? Who would they fill the plane up with after losing the connecting feed at CLT as well as the frequent fliers from CLT? Why do you think they'd want to compete head-to-head with AA on such a small route where the new AA would likely have the advantage with the more appropriate sized aircraft?

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 208):
I think there is actually some business traffic between CLT-MUC which is why I suggested LH "may" keep it but downgrade the equipment.

There is, but FRA has more of it and CLT-MUC only has about 29.5 passengers daily each way, not enough traffic to fill up and A333 even with connections.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: foppishbum
Posted 2013-02-14 10:08:26 and read 7077 times.

I would love to do BUR-DFW-LGA for my near-weekly commute. I do hope AA brings back BUR-DFW sooner rather than later. Hopefully they will do a late departure out of BUR and connect to a red eye to DFW arriving ~5 AM EST.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 182):
Why on earth would AA be cutting flights from DFW to major west coast markets like that?

A lot of people underestimate Burbank Airport. It is so much more convenient to fly in/out of BUR than LAX. A lot of us commuting in/out of BUR to the East Coast would rather connect at SFO, SLC, or DEN than flying in/out of LAX. For example, I arrived JFK yesterday morning by the way of B6 358...I got to the airport, checked bag, went through security, walked to the gate, boarded the plane all within 30 minutes of departure time.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jumpjets
Posted 2013-02-14 10:13:11 and read 7060 times.

There seems to be a consensus that of the merger happens

Quoting realsim (Reply 204):
AA/US have released the combined route maps

I notice Seoul is not shown - is that because the map excludes all proposed but not yet started routes, or has it been quietly shelved for now?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-14 10:19:32 and read 7058 times.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 207):
Do you think that the MIA-YUL route will survive after the merger?
I must fly this route this summer, and I begin to worry...

Miami-Montreal has about 1,300 daily passengers. It is the fourth busiest air route between Canada and the United States; the second busiest international air route from Montreal (and not that far behind Montreal-Paris) and one of the ten busiest international routes out of Canada.

I assure you - it's safe. CLTYUL, though, worry about that one, if anything.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: realsim
Posted 2013-02-14 10:21:35 and read 7037 times.

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 213):

I notice Seoul is not shown - is that because the map excludes all proposed but not yet started routes, or has it been quietly shelved for now?

It is not a perfect route map. The new routes aren't showed (ORD-DUS, JFK-DUB or DFW-LIM), and also others are missing like MIA-LIM.

ICN is still planned, and it appears in other parts of the merger website.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-14 10:21:49 and read 7037 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 211):
There is, but FRA has more of it and CLT-MUC only has about 29.5 passengers daily each way, not enough traffic to fill up and A333 even with connections.

That's really hard to measure. We know, I think, that two big drivers of CLT-Germany (Daimler Trucks/Freightliner and BMW) are nowhere near FRA, and it may be that some of the STR traffic is flowing over FRA now but would be better served by the combined carrier/Oneworld by CLT-LHR-STR.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-14 10:22:47 and read 7022 times.

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 213):
I notice Seoul is not shown - is that because the map excludes all proposed but not yet started routes, or has it been quietly shelved for now?

I suspect they simply overlayed the current AA & US route maps and said "Here is our Route Map!!!"

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-14 10:36:20 and read 6979 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 216):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 211):
There is, but FRA has more of it and CLT-MUC only has about 29.5 passengers daily each way, not enough traffic to fill up and A333 even with connections.

That's really hard to measure. We know, I think, that two big drivers of CLT-Germany (Daimler Trucks/Freightliner and BMW) are nowhere near FRA, and it may be that some of the STR traffic is flowing over FRA now but would be better served by the combined carrier/Oneworld by CLT-LHR-STR.

I'm just quoting the stats as of 2011, CLT-MUC had ~29.5 PDEW while CLT-FRA had 43 PDEW. Whether or not the connecting flows of traffic from CLT to Germany will shift to LHR through the merger I can't really comment on. But going off the number of people traveling between CLT and FRA and MUC, I'm speculating that it's more than likely LH will drop MUC and probably won't "shift" the flight over to FRA as was mentioned above, even though their leaving *A I'm sure AA will have enough of a lock on the local traffic to support a daily flight to FRA.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-14 10:51:19 and read 6941 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 218):
Whether or not the connecting flows of traffic from CLT to Germany will shift to LHR through the merger I can't really comment on.

My point is a little bit different. Some of the traffic that shows in the statistics as CLT-FRA (because they are taking the train to STR or other German cities) may wind up connecting in LHR, reducing the size of the CLT-Germany nonstop market. I don't know what will happen, of course, but it's a possibility that should be considered.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyb
Posted 2013-02-14 10:55:27 and read 6918 times.

Going to be interesting to see the effects in Western Canada. One world has been pretty weak since Canadian disappeared. Lately we've seen WS expand their relationship with AA and have had Alaska Air as well. Heard that WS might add another flight to DFW this year YEG?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-14 10:59:52 and read 6913 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 219):
may wind up connecting in LHR, reducing the size of the CLT-Germany nonstop market.

Well that doesn't really affect the size of the CLT-Germany market, but it may reduce the size CLT-FRA/MUC if people do indeed start connecting to these other German cities direct from LHR without transiting FRA or MUC at all.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2013-02-14 11:23:14 and read 6852 times.

Quoting realsim (Reply 204):
AA/US have released the combined route maps:

- Domestic: http://newamericanarriving.com/image...COMBINED_DOMESTIC_MAP_112712sm.pdf
- International: http://newamericanarriving.com/image...MBINED_INTL_112712sm_optimized.pdf

And here can be seen the combined destinations, with a different color for "shared locations", "AA locations" and "US locations": http://newamericanarriving.com/customers/more-flights

Some of the cities on these maps are quite humorous, and appear to refer to the community closest to the airport. For instance, Joplin appears as Webb City; Wichita Falls as Sheppard (the name of the USAF base there); and Vail is Gypsum. Same goes for the map with the combined destinations: AVL is Fletcher, NC; CVG is Covington, KY; and TRI is Blountville, TN. (And CRW is labeled as being in South Carolina.)

It's outrageous that PIT wasn't labeled as Moon Township!  

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: aacun
Posted 2013-02-14 11:36:42 and read 6801 times.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 222):

That map is soooo wrong. Its missing cities altogether on the American side.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-14 11:43:53 and read 6788 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 193):
It does so well for AA, that is is scheduled on a long-haul 757 so they can serve the route with lie-flat beds in First.

Call me cynical, but to me that sounds more like optimizing aircraft utilization than providing a premium product, however they might sugar coat it.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 201):
With PHX's future very probably changing dramatically with the new AA, I don't see any certainty that the route will exist at all

I think most people on here are saying that PHX is unlikely to go away completely, and in that case I think that TUS will still be a destination. So long as there are connections from PHX to major east coast markets then I think this route will remain, even if only 3/4x daily. I honestly don't see the economic justification for shifting all of that capacity to DFW. It's 813mi, which, on an RJ, is hitting up on its economic range. For BOS, WAS, ORD, NYC etc (+ SFO, SEA etc) it will still be more cost effective to go through PHX.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 222):
Some of the cities on these maps are quite humorous

Ahh that explains it! I thought I was fairly familiar with US route network, but there were quite a few destinations that I've never heard of, let alone knew they flew to. I thought my memory was starting to fail me!

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 222):
And CRW is labeled as being in South Carolina

I noticed that one too

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-14 12:28:29 and read 6728 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 200):
It will be flown still. It's quite a necessary route, until some sort of train is built between the two cities. Simply driving this far isn't much of an option for a lot of Arizonians.

Maybe this will be a blessing in disguise. With the downsizing of PHX it's quite plausible that TUS will lose many of those flights, and that might be enough pressure for the state to go ahead with rail plans. All it takes is inconveniencing a few state politicians...

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: IllinoisMan
Posted 2013-02-14 12:36:00 and read 6700 times.

While this merger may be good for Doug Parker and, perhaps (jury is out), the shareholders, is a big blow to PHX because its smack dab between two giant AA hubs, LAX and DFW, two of the mere seven airports in the Americas busier than PHX. Does anyone think PHX is going to get an expanded role in the merged airline? It is only a matter of how badly it is going to slip. PHX will be cut back to whatever level of service the local market can justify, not the kind of service it has been enjoying as a major hub and airline HQ city. People in the Valley can forget about getting non-stop flights to Asia or Europe in the future.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-14 12:52:10 and read 6698 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
Miami-Montreal has about 1,300 daily passengers.

What is your source. That PDEW is way way too big. I'd bet it is 1/4 that amount. With lot of connecting pax on AA i'd bet AA's MIA-YUL flight is 50% local at most. Are you counting FLL as well. YUL-MIA/FLL would be much bigger but I still doubt 1300 PDEW. 1300 PDEW could support hourly shuttle.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
I assure you - it's safe. CLTYUL, though, worry about that one, if anything.

Why??? Where will the traffic going from YUL to the SE connect instead?? Dont say PHL because US could end YUL-CLT without the AA merger then.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-14 12:55:30 and read 6689 times.

Quoting IllinoisMan (Reply 226):
People in the Valley can forget about getting non-stop flights to Asia or Europe in the future.

Umm . . . http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BAW268

BA's PHX service should work better with whatever level of online feed will be newly available at PHX.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LY777
Posted 2013-02-14 13:05:41 and read 6648 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
Miami-Montreal has about 1,300 daily passengers

OK, thanks.
But 1300 daily passengers with only 3 738s  
Am I missing something?

It is a shame that AC doesn't fly anymore YUL-MIA, I would have liked to experience an AC flight

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jonathanxxxx
Posted 2013-02-14 13:29:19 and read 6555 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 227):

If he combined MIA/FLL/PBI I'd say that's about right. The fact is there are a lot of Canadians in South Florida. Not to mention the huge amounts that go on cruises out of MIA or FLL. There is definitely a large market.

Quoting IllinoisMan (Reply 226):

Ehh, I think PHX-LHR will survive. The route has operated fine without US feed for a while and even if the hub is gone it would still work on BA

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-14 13:35:03 and read 6546 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 228):
BA's PHX service should work better with whatever level of online feed will be newly available at PHX.

+ US FF base in PHX.

I've heard that this is a route that does very well for BA. I'm sure that I will get flamed for saying this, but 2x 772 wouldn't overly surprise me, even if only seasonal.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-14 14:02:59 and read 6470 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 227):
Quoting jonathanxxxx (Reply 230):
Quoting LY777 (Reply 229):

1300 would be the total market size. To get the PDEW, cut that number in half.

MIA's largest international market has traditionally been CCS and it is about 850 PDEW.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-14 14:03:32 and read 6462 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 227):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
Miami-Montreal has about 1,300 daily passengers.

What is your source. That PDEW is way way too big.

He didn't say say that was passengers daily each way, cut it in half to get PDEW.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 227):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
I assure you - it's safe. CLTYUL, though, worry about that one, if anything.

Why??? Where will the traffic going from YUL to the SE connect instead?? Dont say PHL because US could end YUL-CLT without the AA merger then.

They could but that would harm pre-merger US's market share in YUL. US only has two hubs to connect it to...not a lot of wiggle room if they want to have a decent offering at YUL. But now they can offer service from YUL to MIA, DFW, ORD, JFK/LGA. I doubt they'll outright end CLT-YUL though, it will probably just be reduced in frequency.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 229):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
Miami-Montreal has about 1,300 daily passengers

OK, thanks.
But 1300 daily passengers with only 3 738s
Am I missing something?

Well it's not like AA has a 100% market share on the route, 3x daily 738's sounds right to me.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-14 14:14:33 and read 6446 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 232):

Correction. YYZ is the largest market from MIA. It's 915 PDEW. CCS is the second largest.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-14 14:16:54 and read 6462 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 227):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 214):
Miami-Montreal has about 1,300 daily passengers.

What is your source. That PDEW is way way too big. I'd bet it is 1/4 that amount. With lot of connecting pax on AA i'd bet AA's MIA-YUL flight is 50% local at most. Are you counting FLL as well. YUL-MIA/FLL would be much bigger but I still doubt 1300 PDEW. 1300 PDEW could support hourly shuttle.

MIDT. It's market pair, not airport pair. And it's 650 PDEW. But considering how insanely seasonal it is, it's probably close to 1,000 PDEW in the winter.

The market has something like 10-12 daiies on some days during the winter.

Interestingly enough, AA is the only U.S. airline with mainline to Montreal.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: SANFan
Posted 2013-02-14 14:27:25 and read 6410 times.

Quoting realsim (Reply 215):
It is not a perfect route map. The new routes aren't showed (ORD-DUS, JFK-DUB or DFW-LIM), and also others are missing like MIA-LIM
Quoting usairways85 (Reply 217):
I suspect they simply overlayed the current AA & US route maps and said "Here is our Route Map!!!"

I agree with both of you. But I have to admit that when I first looked at it, I was just a tad disappointed that I didn't see a line between SAN and MIA... But I'm over it already and haven't held my breath for a couple of years now!

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Reply 230):
Ehh, I think PHX-LHR will survive. The route has operated fine without US feed for a while and even if the hub is gone it would still work on BA.

   I see no reason to think otherwise.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 231):
I've heard that this is a route that does very well for BA. I'm sure that I will get flamed for saying this, but 2x 772 wouldn't overly surprise me, even if only seasonal.

Consider this your first official flame: let's not get carried away now! I think a daily 747 should handle things quite nicely for a while.

BTW, did you know that you can see exactly what the pax traffic is on Speedbird every month here:
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf
You can easily calculate the average daily LF for PHX-LHR and eliminate any guesswork about how well the route is doing (at least from a load factor viewpoint.) I've been keeping track of SAN-LHR since our flight began.

bb

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-14 15:35:57 and read 6333 times.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 236):
BTW, did you know that you can see exactly what the pax traffic is on Speedbird every month here

Thanks for sharing! I wasn't aware of that. I see that in November PHX carried 3 more people than SAN - so maybe I was prematurely popping champagne corks!

That said, my point was relating to the fairly sizeable FF base in PHX potentially moving over to this route. I can't see many people choosing to fly PHX-PHL-LHR after the merger, unless they want to burn systemwide upgrades. And not just LHR, it isn't inconceivable that someone flying from PHX to CDG might choose LHR over ORD/PHL/JFK. T5 is a very easy terminal to connect in, and I would much rather go through FIS in PHX than ORD!



Going slightly OT from "routes", but I'm not sure it applies in "hubs"... (for some reason the "Airport Operations (Non-Hubs)" thread was deleted, which would have been the obvious place to ask)

I'm wondering what the future of the US Airways Club in GSO is. This must be the only market in the country, on any airline, that has no mainline service but does have a Club. While it has survived this long under US, I can't help feel that its future is questionable, especially given that the station is 100% regional.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: Philly65
Posted 2013-02-14 16:49:51 and read 6209 times.

I am amazed at the amount of PHL bashing and pontificating as though everyone has some inside knowledge of what changes will occur once the two airlines are integrated. AA and US have both given up on the NYC market long ago; neither one nor both combined are in a position to regain preeminent status in NYC. UA and DL have long secured the top spots in NY and lets not forget B6 building up as the 3rd premier airline in NYC. US has traded a good chunk of their slot portfolio to DL and AA is a mere shadow of it what it once was at all 3 NYC airports. Didn't AA just sublease slots at EWR to VX? I can't tell you how many times I was at JFK and saw the AA terminal as vacant as any lot in Detroit. How can the combined carrier buy back share in NYC? Can someone explain? I am all ears...

Nevertheless, I will chime in as well. There will no doubt be some shifting of routes and frequencies over the long term. PHX will be the immediate loser. How much? We don't know yet. CLT will also see a good % of flights eliminated. Most of that service will shift via DFW or MIA. How big will CLT be? TBD, but it won't be as big as it is today. ORD, not so sure what will become of this hub as well. So much has been eliminated or replaced by RJs let alone WN building up MDW as their largest hub (or one of) which replaced a lot of service that AA once operated. So again, what becomes of ORD? TBD. PHL, yes I will defend it. You might not like the city (nor know a lot about the place) but the airport is not only the best geographically positioned in the Mid-Atlantic. Also the the facility is not that bad either. Better to connect there than any of the NY airports that is for sure. Although DL's investment at JFK is something to watch out for. Yeah, PHL has ATC issues but nothing like the NYC airports. Playing devils advocate here, can you imagine if US shifted all flights to JFK. LOL! What a fuster cluck that would be. JFK will remain a top focus city with minimal int'l service and west coast to keep the loyal customers/corporate accounts happy, but it will not be the mega gateway a few here are suggesting. What routes if any are transferred or added to JFK? TBD.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-02-14 16:54:30 and read 6222 times.

Any thoughts on whether the new AA will keep both Charlotte and Raleigh-London? The two routes coexist today (albeit separate airlines) and unless Raleigh cannibalizes Charlotte I don't see them getting rid of Raleigh-London. If anything Charlotte would give the Raleigh contracts more choice to London/Europe (with a quick hop to Charlotte etc).

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-14 17:07:51 and read 6191 times.

Will we see PHX to London, can a 777 take off from Skyharbor's 11,439 foot runway on a hot summer Arizona Day. Its been far too long for Usairways to have a west coast hub with no flights beyind Hawaii or the east coast.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: wn676
Posted 2013-02-14 17:20:17 and read 6128 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 240):

BA operated a 777 to PHX for a few years with no issues. Kirby had mentioned their desire to operate PHX-LHR on their own metal, with or without a merger, so I think the idea of another flight isn't too far fetched.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jonathanxxxx
Posted 2013-02-14 17:22:29 and read 6126 times.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 239):

Any thoughts on whether the new AA will keep both Charlotte and Raleigh-London? The two routes coexist today (albeit separate airlines) and unless Raleigh cannibalizes Charlotte I don't see them getting rid of Raleigh-London. If anything Charlotte would give the Raleigh contracts more choice to London/Europe (with a quick hop to Charlotte etc).

Considering that RDU works fine thanks to the help of the corporate contracts I don't see why it should be canceled as it is a purely O&D route.

CLT on the other hand works off of connections (that RDU doesn't have anyway) from both sides so no need to worry about them stealing traffic from each other.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: capitalflyer
Posted 2013-02-14 17:25:43 and read 6106 times.

What about Asia? Surely the merger frees up some metal to start more service to the far east. United and Delta are crushing them to Asia. If they don't get on that quick, they will soon find themselves a distant third.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-14 19:32:00 and read 5958 times.

Quoting Philly65 (Reply 238):
So again, what becomes of ORD? TBD.

ORD isn't going anywhere. AA didn't have the right size aircraft in the past 5-10 years to optimize ORD. Remember ORD was a huge base for the F100. When they got rid of them it was either MD80/738 or an ERJ (or CR7 more recently). That is a huge gap.

With the 319s and the E170/175/190s and CR7s/CR9s US/AA will be able to really optimize ORD and maintain a strong presence.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: BDL757
Posted 2013-02-14 20:01:09 and read 5875 times.

I'm hoping that they start some flights to Africa. MIA seems like a good hub to launch flights to Africa. Is there any market from DFW to Africa?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: jmc1975
Posted 2013-02-14 21:13:33 and read 5757 times.

Quoting BDL757 (Reply 245):
I'm hoping that they start some flights to Africa. MIA seems like a good hub to launch flights to Africa. Is there any market from DFW to Africa?

Probably MIA-JNB would be more realistic and within the range envelope of the 777/787

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-02-14 22:25:05 and read 5680 times.

Ok, here's an interesting situation at MKE. US just moved from C (where AA is now) to D (taking over the former WN gates). There are 3 possibilities I see here.

1. The US side vacates the D gates and moves back to C taking 4 gates at C
2. The AA side moves to D (that might have been AA's plan before the merger was figured out) thus taking 4 gates at D
3. AA decides they only need one set of gates and cuts out one pair, leaving them with just 2

United/Continental still haven't gotten their identity crisis figured out with respect to which Concourse they want to be in, and I don't know what concourse NW was in before the DL merger happened, so I have no frame of reference to make any judgement. But I bet WN would LUV to have C all to themselves (once they're done absorbing FL).

any insights?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: LJ
Posted 2013-02-21 13:36:35 and read 4969 times.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 167):
Good grief, these threads are getting long. I may have missed some posts but any speculation on AMS? Finally AA in AMS right? In what form? PHL as is? Something else? Add MIA while they're at it.

I wouldn't be surpised if PHL-AMS got axed as of W13 (and nothing in return). It's already a B757 yearround and oneworld is the smallest in the Dutch market. Furthermore, the introduction of the 5th AMS-JFK flight won't make it easier either.

I also suspect that BRU may be gone as well.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-22 09:47:51 and read 4494 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 244):
With the 319s and the E170/175/190s and CR7s/CR9s US/AA will be able to really optimize ORD and maintain a strong presence.

Yes, the E175s are tailor made for ORD

Quoting LJ (Reply 248):
I wouldn't be surpised if PHL-AMS got axed
Quoting LJ (Reply 248):
I also suspect that BRU may be gone as well.

Why? Why does AA merging with US make PHL-AMS/BRU all of a sudden something to drop?

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-22 09:53:22 and read 4478 times.

Quoting Philly65 (Reply 238):
AA and US have both given up on the NYC market long ago; neither one nor both combined are in a position to regain preeminent status in NYC

US has but AA hasnt

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 233):
He didn't say say that was passengers daily each way, cut it in half to get PDEW.
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 233):
Well it's not like AA has a 100% market share on the route, 3x daily 738's sounds right to me.

650 PDEW still sounds too large. Even for 1Q. I could see FLLYUL being larger than MIAYUL

Quoting Philly65 (Reply 238):
CLT will also see a good % of flights eliminated. Most of that service will shift via DFW or MIA.

Neither is an appropriate replacement for CLT

Quoting Philly65 (Reply 238):
I am amazed at the amount of PHL bashing and pontificating as though everyone has some inside knowledge of what changes will occur once the two airlines are integrated

Yet, and here you are.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 235):
The market has something like 10-12 daiies on some days during the winter.

I could see YUL-MIA/FLL being that high in1Q yes.

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: moderators
Posted 2013-02-22 10:05:02 and read 4432 times.

A second thread has been started to continue the discussion. It can be found here AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2 (by moderators Feb 22 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Have a wonderful weekend everybody,

The Airliners.net Moderator Crew

Topic: RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-22 10:29:04 and read 4339 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 247):
Ok, here's an interesting situation at MKE. US just moved from C (where AA is now) to D (taking over the former WN gates). There are 3 possibilities I see here.

1. The US side vacates the D gates and moves back to C taking 4 gates at C
2. The AA side moves to D (that might have been AA's plan before the merger was figured out) thus taking 4 gates at D
3. AA decides they only need one set of gates and cuts out one pair, leaving them with just 2

United/Continental still haven't gotten their identity crisis figured out with respect to which Concourse they want to be in, and I don't know what concourse NW was in before the DL merger happened, so I have no frame of reference to make any judgement. But I bet WN would LUV to have C all to themselves (once they're done absorbing FL).

any insights?

Some discussion taking place on this topic under this other thread - specific to airside ops instead of routes:

AA/US Merger Impact: Airside Ops (non-hubs) (by BHMNONREV Feb 14 2013 in Civil Aviation)


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