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Topic: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: ezra
Posted 2013-02-14 09:00:35 and read 20921 times.

Now that AA & US are off to see the priest, what type of competitive response might we expect to see from DL? It occurs to me that they might be hungry again now that they've finished digesting NW. Relative to other recent players in the M&A game -- UA/CO, WN/FL, and now AA/US -- Delta is pretty far out along the curve and might be in a position to absorb another large deal. What, if anything, could they be cooking up? Could they try to play spoiler to the AA/US deal and try to snatch up Miami? Maybe B6 would make for a tasty snack? And of course there are always rumors about HA and AS. Does anyone care to opine?

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-02-14 09:14:49 and read 20790 times.

If anything this merger helps DL- it's one less competitor they need to compete with on price. I think DL is right sized and has a highly effective fleet, network, and employee group. I don't see DL really affected by this merger, ditto for UA besides some right sizing routes to former US hubs

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: PIEAvantiP180
Posted 2013-02-14 09:27:01 and read 20642 times.

Quoting ezra (Thread starter):
Could they try to play spoiler to the AA/US deal and try to snatch up Miami?

This is a merger not an asset sale, MIA is not under any circumstances for sale. The new AA would be idiots for even entertaining an idea like that. MIA is the Latin king and making AA money, there is no way they will get rid of it. AS for DL looking to merge with another carrier, its certainly a possibility. B6 would not work because they would have to give up to much in LGA/JFK slots to make the merger or a buy out pass the DOJ/DOT approval.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 09:37:09 and read 20479 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 1):
If anything this merger helps DL- it's one less competitor they need to compete with on price

   On the other hand, DL is now #3. They have become the new US: lots of hubs in the East, one hub in the West that doesn't really serve as a gateway to much of anything, a great operation, improving product and customer service metrics, but ultimately a challenging network. I think we'll see DL try to make headway in NYC, LAX, and SEA, to grow a network that is competitive with the new AA and UA.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: stlgph
Posted 2013-02-14 09:41:02 and read 20402 times.

If Delta has a 'concern' right now, of any other carrier, it is United. United has the best network among the airlines and is two years ahead of AMR/LCC in the merger integration process.
American doesn't even come close to United or Delta's presence in the Pacific Market.
Internally, Delta needs to teeth through their refinery operation, the investment in Virgin Atlantic, and its self-investment in New York LaGuardia and Kennedy.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 09:49:20 and read 20299 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
On the other hand, DL is now #3.

True, but all three are absolutely huge airlines. I think when you're talking about carriers that each have between 1/6 and 1/5 of the entire market, it becomes relatively less important who is in which specific position.

The key shift in competitive dynamics for Delta - and United - is that now they will have another competitor with not just the scale they have, but more importantly the network range. AA will - for the most part - be able to offer a comprehensive network across multiple, very-well-placed hubs, on par with Delta and United.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
They have become the new US

I wouldn't go that far. Delta today is in a far, far better position than standalone USAirways.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
lots of hubs in the East, one hub in the West that doesn't really serve as a gateway to much of anything

To be fair, that's essentially AA, too.

I think on balance AA's network will now be stronger than Delta's, but not by much. AA will have the entire domestic market covered except the west coast and Rockies region, with extremely dense coverage up and down the east coast, two excellent east-west hubs in DFW and ORD, plus LAX as a prime longhaul/partner gateway out west.

Domestically, the only area where Delta will still have a clear advantage vs AA will be in the Rockies, but of every region of the U.S., that's the least important - it's the least populous and least dense. Internationally, Delta will have an advantage to Asia, although I suspect the gap there between the two will be narrowing in coming years.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
a great operation, improving product and customer service metrics

  

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
I think we'll see DL try to make headway in NYC, LAX, and SEA, to grow a network that is competitive with the new AA and UA.

I agree - those will likely be the 3 main battle fronts they attempt to fight on. We'll see if their competitors choose to fight on Delta's terms or take the fight to Delta on terms of their own.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-02-14 09:51:19 and read 20271 times.

Its good for Delta and United in the end. One less competator. Especially since US was always the one lowest last minute fares one less person to price match it will be a good thing for Delta in the end. Why does everyone keep bringing up MIA delta is not starting a hub there nor is AA/US going to leave or sell it.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-14 09:51:26 and read 20271 times.

Delta has a decent Pacific franchise, with AA deal happening every one is saying how " AA lacks in Asia", True, But DL is not so strong to Europe as we are led to believe, sure they fly every where but is flying to Rome, Barcelona and Athens something to brag about. We all know AA is LHR centric to Europe but why is this a hanicap ? About 40 % of all USA to Europe trips go to the UK and 98 % of those go to LHR, which is why DL purchased 49 % of Virgin. DL has a decent operation to Latin America from Atlanta and JFK to Sao Paulo (hey its JFK where they have a huge operation if they can fly 20 767 to Europe daily they can do the LHR of South America too) but its not Miami and never will be.

IN Asia DL has the Tokyo hub, but the NRT hub is not what it used to be. 777 can go to all kinds of places in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Korea as AA is doing or soon will be nonstop from ORD, LAX, JFK and DFW. Even Delta overflies Japan with its own 777 from Detroit.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: anstar
Posted 2013-02-14 10:13:10 and read 20033 times.

Quoting ezra (Thread starter):
Now that AA & US are off to see the priest, what type of competitive response might we expect to see from DL?

Perhaps buying VX to be their LCC? They seem to be getting cosy with Virgin Atlantic (buying 49% and foing a JV between UK and USA, Canada, Mexico).... as well as the Joint Venture with Virgin Australia?

Perhaps we could see Delta push all the Virgin;s into Skyteam??

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-14 10:20:43 and read 19947 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 7):
is flying to Rome, Barcelona and Athens something to brag about.

If other airlines had the network in Europe that Delta has, you'd bet your jet-A they'd brag about it. Delta is strong in EU, SA)">NA, SA, AS, and has presence in AF and AU. Six continents! Not too shabby for 'Number 3'!!

Since I was 15, I always wanted DL and NW to merge. They waited 35 years until I was hired by Delta to do that. Then I hoped we'd get LGA terminal C. Next on the list was getting VS. All have come to pass.

Now my sights are set on AS. SEA, here we come!!

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: TVNWZ
Posted 2013-02-14 10:20:51 and read 19949 times.

If I were Delta I would go after Alaska. Firm up the west coast. If Delta doesn't someone else will. Consolidation is not over with Alaska still out there alone.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-02-14 10:24:58 and read 19898 times.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 10):

True and all the folks that defend AS independence to the end, if DL offers the shareholders a fantastic offer - you better believe that AS will be bought out or merge.

I don't believe that this will happen though ... I see AS staying independent for quite some time.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2013-02-14 10:26:13 and read 19875 times.

I was thinking if Doug Parker decides on getting rid of IFE on AA domestic flights, perhaps DL would counter it by retrofitting more of its domestic aircraft with AVOD in effort to win loyal AA customers who enjoy having IFE on domestic flights.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: toltommy
Posted 2013-02-14 10:26:26 and read 19877 times.

Quoting stlgph (Reply 4):
If Delta has a 'concern' right now, of any other carrier, it is United. United has the best network among the airlines and is two years ahead of AMR/LCC in the merger integration process.

Problem is that UA is 10 years behind DL in the merger integration process.    AA/US has those two mergers to learn from, one done very well, one not so much.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: TVNWZ
Posted 2013-02-14 10:27:47 and read 19870 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 11):
I don't believe that this will happen though ... I see AS staying independent for quite some time.

I agree with the first part. Love flying the airline. However, the market makeup may force the issue. I am not saying I want it to happen, I am saying Delta has to be thinking about it.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: DualQual
Posted 2013-02-14 10:30:43 and read 19792 times.

Quoting toltommy (Reply 13):

10 years might be optimistic. AA/US could very well be integrated ahead. I say that with my tounge not really all in my cheek.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 10:33:10 and read 19756 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
To be fair, that's essentially AA, too.

I think on balance AA's network will now be stronger than Delta's, but not by much

I think they're significantly stronger or at least have the potential to become so quickly; they're now a major player in NYC, WAS, CHI, LAX--DL is making a hard push to be a major player in two of those areas. AA can run tpac flights out of LAX/DFW/ORD for instance. DL essentially has DTW; it has had difficulty doing much out of ATL and SLC is a nonstarter. I'm not convinced by SEA either as it relies in large part on a partner over whose schedule it has no control and with whom it seems to be having a schedule tit-for-tat lately.

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
I wouldn't go that far. Delta today is in a far, far better position than standalone USAirways.

I mean it in the sense that DL probably has the most challenging network of the three now, though it has one of the strongest management teams, after US  DL has been making a lot of excellent moves, but so was US.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 10):
Consolidation is not over with Alaska still out there alone.

With every merger AS seems to print more money, so I don't know that AS really needs to get involved, especially if it continues to play AA and DL off of each other.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: lucky777
Posted 2013-02-14 10:33:51 and read 19762 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
On the other hand, DL is now #3. They have become the new US

Laughable at best to make such a statement. Delta has a far more robust overall network than even the new AA has and certainly superior to anything US Airways or American offered on their own accord.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-14 10:37:17 and read 19699 times.

I think there is a 66% chance we will see this filed in court when others can submit reorganization plans:

"The analysis of the bid shows that US Airways is effectively paying $xyz million for American. We (Delta) are willing to pay $1 more than that for ONLY the Miami hub and if US Airways pays anything for the rest, then the creditors will get a higher % of their claims returned to them. We have included an analysis from our consultant showing our proposed asset sale coupled with the remainder being sold to US Airways should increase the claim resolution percentage from x% to y%."

Frankly, they'd be stupid not to do that...

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: realsim
Posted 2013-02-14 10:39:08 and read 19676 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
I think we'll see DL try to make headway in NYC, LAX, and SEA, to grow a network that is competitive with the new AA and UA.

  

AA should better keep an eye on what DL is doing at LAX . I know AA is the number 1 mainline airline at LAX, but DL has now more flights from LAX to cities like SAN, SFO or LAS, and they are starting new routes, so they could end with something like what they have at LGA or JFK if AA stays idle. Who would have thought that DL would run mutilple daily LGA-ORD/DFW or LAX-SFO some years ago?

AA+US largest MSAs without non-stop service from LAX are ATL, DTW, SEA (AS), MSP and TPA, all of which are served by DL. I think it's time to enter those. Besides, the largets MSAs served by AA+US from ALL their hubs except LAX are DTW, TPA, BWI, PIT, CMH and IND. PIT and CMH, because of the large AA+US presence there, seem logical additions in my opinion.

[Edited 2013-02-14 10:41:32]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 10:40:41 and read 19655 times.

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 17):
Delta has a far more robust overall network than even the new AA has

That's highly debatable.

Each is absent from 2 main regions of the U.S. (intra-west coast and Rockies for AA, intra-west coast and south-central for DL), but on balance I'd rather be missing the Rockies (least populous and lowest-density region of the mainland U.S.) than south-central.

Internationally, the two are now essentially tied across the Atlantic, while AA will handily dominate Latin America and Delta is huge to Asia (though with lower overall market share than AA has in Latin America).

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: diverdave
Posted 2013-02-14 10:45:38 and read 19584 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 1):
If anything this merger helps DL- it's one less competitor they need to compete with on price. I think DL is right sized and has a highly effective fleet, network, and employee group.

Delta is ecstatic.

As you note, it is one less competitor.

The new AA will have higher wage costs than the old US (as those employees are brought up to AA wage levels), and will have higher wage costs than if AA had emerged from bankruptcy stand-alone. (Thanks to the deals Parker cut with the unions.)

Richard Anderson's three largest US based competitors are all at various points in the process of difficult mergers, and yes I'm counting WN as one of the three.

His only dark cloud is that he must rue the day he bought the Trainer refinery.  

David

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: wingnutmn
Posted 2013-02-14 10:45:46 and read 19576 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 7):

This is where your global alliance comes in and even further, your ATI with other carriers. DL has AF/KL across the Atlantic, with hubs in CDG and AMS you can go anywhere in Europe with 1 or 2 stops with 1 ticket. LHR was lacking so you buy into LHR with VS and now you have your Europe covered. Likewise Trans-pac has NRT, but it also has KE in ICN as a huge asset to the North Pacific rim and Indonesia.

AA may not have a huge Asia route, but OW has JAL that covers the entire North Pacific, and Qantas for all of the South Pacific. Where AA lacks is the Middle East. DL and UA fly there, but AA is very absent. You would need to go through LHR and connect on BA if you want that.

World domination for US airlines belongs to UA followed by DL, then AA.

Wingnut

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-02-14 10:45:49 and read 19587 times.

Quoting realsim (Reply 19):
AA+US largest MSAs without non-stop service from LAX are ATL, DTW, SEA (AS), MSP and TPA, all of which are served by DL. I think it's time to enter those. Besides, the largets MSAs served by AA+US from ALL their hubs except LAX are DTW, TPA, BWI, PIT, CMH and IND. PIT and CMH, because of the large AA+US presence there, seem logical additions in my opinion.

However, LAX is a true omni-directional hub, and there is signficant competition to/from LAX into those markets both nonstop and connecting service.

The routes are long mid-con type routes (MSP, DTW, ATL, TPA, PIT, CMH) that all eat up a lot of airplane time.
I wouldn't look too quickly for AA to jump on the routes. Plus, you know the minute they do then DL starts LAX-DFW, LAX-ORD

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-14 10:50:55 and read 19518 times.

Quoting ezra (Thread starter):
what type of competitive response might we expect to see from DL?

THERE IS NOTHING DELTA CAN DO TO STOP AA/US or Blunit it.

Quoting ezra (Thread starter):
What, if anything, could they be cooking up? Could they try to play spoiler to the AA/US deal and try to snatch up Miami?

NO, OF COURSE NOT!!!!!!!

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 10):
If I were Delta I would go after Alaska.

A hostile takeover???? AS doesnt want to be sold.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 12):
I was thinking if Doug Parker decides on getting rid of IFE on AA domestic flights,

For the love of GOD!!!!!!!!!

Quoting realsim (Reply 19):
AA should better keep an eye on what DL is doing at LAX

DL is losing money at LAX is what Delta is doing.


SHOOT ME!!!!!! 

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-02-14 10:52:54 and read 20350 times.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 10):
If I were Delta I would go after Alaska. Firm up the west coast. If Delta doesn't someone else will. Consolidation is not over with Alaska still out there alone.

Yep, just what DL wants - all those small state of Alaska destinations; routes like BLI-OGG, SJC-LIH and QX.

Both AA and DL get a lot milk from AS now with the code-sharing, but without having the hassle of buying the cow.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 11):
True and all the folks that defend AS independence to the end, if DL offers the shareholders a fantastic offer - you better believe that AS will be bought out or merge.

It depends on whether the shareholders figure that rejecting a DL offer would be more fantastic for them in the long-term.

I still believe that anyone who doesn't think most of AS's (profitable) route structure would be gone so fast it would make your head spin if DL bought them, is in denial. First DL would can all the niche routes; then they realize they don't need all those non-stops when they can start routing people through SLC and MSP, and of course DL doesn't really want to fly to Adak, Kotzibue and Wrangell either.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-14 10:56:20 and read 20258 times.

Quoting realsim (Reply 19):
AA should better keep an eye on what DL is doing at LAX . I know AA is the number 1 mainline airline at LAX, but DL has now more flights from LAX to cities like SAN, SFO or LAS, and they are starting new routes

This thread DL To Start LAX-ANC/BOS/GEG (by FL787 Feb 13 2013 in Civil Aviation) speaks of Delta doing just that.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-14 11:02:05 and read 20600 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 12):
I was thinking if Doug Parker decides on getting rid of IFE on AA domestic flights

Not happening. Parker regrets taking IFE of US planes, he learned a lot about running an East Coast business airline and doesn't plan on making the same mistakes again

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
DL is losing money at LAX is what Delta is doing.

They are also losing money at LGA, but I don't expect them to vacate that market either  

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-14 11:06:06 and read 20504 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 25):
all those small state of Alaska destinations; routes like BLI-OGG, SJC-LIH and QX.
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 25):
DL doesn't really want to fly to Adak, Kotzibue and Wrangell either.

DL could keep the SEA hub and some 737s, let QX fly the intra-AK and ex-SEA flights and let them keep the AS name. All Delta really wants is the SEA hub. All of this, is of course, MVHO. Don't ask for a link or a source.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-14 11:06:18 and read 20441 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 27):
They are also losing money at LGA, but I don't expect them to vacate that market either

At some point you cant lose money at both.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-14 11:07:33 and read 20463 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 27):
They are also losing money at LGA, but I don't expect them to vacate that market either

Eh cue me? Please enlighten me.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: DTWPurserBoy
Posted 2013-02-14 11:12:39 and read 20378 times.

I just wonder how fractuous this merger will be. It took US and HP YEARS to integrate and AA is well known for its intractable unions. Unless handled carefully, this could be a real mess. Settle the seniority issues IMMEDIATELY and work from there. That is the biggest stubmbling point in any merger.

Since I have many friends at both companies I wish them all well. Keep your cool, ignore rumors and deal realsitically.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2013-02-14 11:18:52 and read 20303 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 27):
Not happening. Parker regrets taking IFE of US planes, he learned a lot about running an East Coast business airline and doesn't plan on making the same mistakes again

Are you sure about this? I find this hard to believe, since even on IFE-equipped aircraft, US doesn't use the IFE systems on any domestic route other than Alaska and Hawaii; I had an A330 on CLT-SJU and a Hawaii-equipped 752 on CLT-PHX this past holiday season, and the only things the IFE systems were used for were the safety video, and in the case of the A330, the moving map on the supplemental monitors. If Doug Parker really regrets removing IFE on domestic routes, he would allow the use of the systems on the IFE-equipped aircraft.

Considering Doug Parker's arrogance against customers, I think it is indeed possible, if not immediately likely, that he will order the IFE systems to be removed from all of AA's domestic aircraft.

[Edited 2013-02-14 11:20:15]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: luv2fly
Posted 2013-02-14 11:23:52 and read 20211 times.

Is US and HP finally combined or is it still East and West? Remember it still has to pass the DOT and there is a 50/50 chance that it could not pass mustard. ATT and T-Mobile got shot down, this could very well happen as well.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: cessna2
Posted 2013-02-14 11:25:47 and read 20182 times.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 31):
I just wonder how fractuous this merger will be. It took US and HP YEARS to integrate and AA is well known for its intractable unions. Unless handled carefully, this could be a real mess. Settle the seniority issues IMMEDIATELY and work from there. That is the biggest stubmbling point in any merger.

Since I have many friends at both companies I wish them all well. Keep your cool, ignore rumors and deal realsitically.

It will still take years. US and HP are still not fully integrated. Now you'll have multiple unions to integrate. This could take a while.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-02-14 11:28:37 and read 20108 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 28):
DL could keep the SEA hub and some 737s, let QX fly the intra-AK and ex-SEA flights and let them keep the AS name. All Delta really wants is the SEA hub. All of this, is of course, MVHO. Don't ask for a link or a source.

Oh yeah, I'm sure that would benefit the AS shareholders - pare out the most major parts of the AS network to DL and keep the leftovers under AS.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-14 11:28:57 and read 20140 times.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 14):
I agree with the first part. Love flying the airline. However, the market makeup may force the issue. I am not saying I want it to happen, I am saying Delta has to be thinking about it.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
With every merger AS seems to print more money, so I don't know that AS really needs to get involved, especially if it continues to play AA and DL off of each other.

AS has so much more leverage right now than DL does. The only way DL could force a buyout is if they were somehow able to come to a backroom agreement with AA to cut off all codesharing with AS, giving AS the option to either accept buyout or wither on the vine. AA would never go along with that, so DL's hands are tied. And now with US tying up with AA, that is even more network feed to funnel into the AS network via the AA codeshare.

Quoting wingnutmn (Reply 22):
Where AA lacks is the Middle East. DL and UA fly there, but AA is very absent. You would need to go through LHR and connect on BA if you want that.

World domination for US airlines belongs to UA followed by DL, then AA.

Is it in the cards for AA to start up something like JFK- or PHL-DXB? Maybe even jump back into CAI?

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 32):
Considering Doug Parker's arrogance against customers, I think it is indeed possible, if not immediately likely, that he will order the IFE systems to be removed from all of AA's domestic aircraft.

From all I've been reading and seeing, more and more passengers are choosing to bring their own devices rather than rely on aircraft IFE. A better option might just be to install power outlets in every seat and offer the free headphones.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2013-02-14 11:33:44 and read 20092 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 36):
From all I've been reading and seeing, more and more passengers are choosing to bring their own devices rather than rely on aircraft IFE. A better option might just be to install power outlets in every seat and offer the free headphones.

On DL, based on my experience, more people still use the AVOD systems than using their own devices. While it is true that some people now use their own devices, they are still a minority when it comes to AVOD-equipped aircraft.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: delimit
Posted 2013-02-14 11:36:45 and read 20018 times.

I haven't sen it mentioned, but DL can't be sad to watch the rationalization that will happen between CLT and the AA network. Not only is DL losing a competitor, but they are.going to become stronger in the SE as a result.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-02-14 11:37:41 and read 19986 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 36):
The only way DL could force a buyout is if they were somehow able to come to a backroom agreement with AA to cut off all codesharing with AS, giving AS the option to either accept buyout or wither on the vine. AA would never go along with that, so DL's hands are tied.

That would also be illegal collusion AFAIK. One competitor making a secret backroom agreement with another competitor to force a third one to sell out or wither on the vine doesn't sound legal, even for this legal non-expert.

I do agree that AS has more leverage.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: United787
Posted 2013-02-14 11:38:12 and read 19955 times.

Quoting toltommy (Reply 13):
Problem is that UA is 10 years behind DL in the merger integration process. AA/US has those two mergers to learn from, one done very well, one not so much.

They could also learn from their own past mergers AA/TW and US/HP, not done so well...

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 31):
I just wonder how fractuous this merger will be. It took US and HP YEARS to integrate and AA is well known for its intractable unions. Unless handled carefully, this could be a real mess. Settle the seniority issues IMMEDIATELY and work from there. That is the biggest stubmbling point in any merger.
Quoting cessna2 (Reply 34):
It will still take years. US and HP are still not fully integrated. Now you'll have multiple unions to integrate. This could take a while.

No doubt that the DL/NW merger is a model for all and that UA/CO hasn't been so smooth...but UA is over the hump and this should be a much better year (if they can only get their 787s flying)...even the unions are making progress...

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: wingnutmn
Posted 2013-02-14 11:44:53 and read 19896 times.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 28):
DL could keep the SEA hub and some 737s, let QX fly the intra-AK and ex-SEA flights and let them keep the AS name. All Delta really wants is the SEA hub. All of this, is of course, MVHO. Don't ask for a link or a source.

They also want LAX. They could increase capacity significantly to Asia with AS feed to LAX. Also, it would take away a codeshare with AA

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 31):

I just wonder how fractuous this merger will be. It took US and HP YEARS to integrate and AA is well known for its intractable unions. Unless handled carefully, this could be a real mess. Settle the seniority issues IMMEDIATELY and work from there. That is the biggest stubmbling point in any merger.

I think that if AA pilots feel they can gain something, this deal would get done quickly. If it is just to get US up to AA standards for pay, then I see it taking a while. The only gain for AA in the last scenario is Union Dues paid to APA. Doug Parker is best to keep them fractured, because the pilots at US are an absolute bargain right now at their current pay.

Wingut

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: TVNWZ
Posted 2013-02-14 11:45:08 and read 19875 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
With every merger AS seems to print more money, so I don't know that AS really needs to get involved, especially if it continues to play AA and DL off of each other.

AS doesn't need to get involved. But, DL may get involved to protect itself.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 21):
Delta is ecstatic.

As you note, it is one less competitor.

It is not the number of competitors, it is the strength and reach of the competitors. A combined AA/US could be a bigger headache than the two seperately.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 21):
His only dark cloud is that he must rue the day he bought the Trainer refinery.

Or the other airlines will have wished they bought a refinery. Too early to tell, though.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
A hostile takeover???? AS doesnt want to be sold.

And AA wanted to come out of bankruptcy without merger. Can't always get what you want. Times, and competition, always change.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 25):
Yep, just what DL wants - all those small state of Alaska destinations; routes like BLI-OGG, SJC-LIH and QX.

Both AA and DL get a lot milk from AS now with the code-sharing, but without having the hassle of buying the cow.

Maybe they could get more milk by owning the cow. But, more factually, keep AA from milking the cow.

I believe AS is a logical target. It's one of the biggest out there.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 11:49:32 and read 19849 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 36):

From all I've been reading and seeing, more and more passengers are choosing to bring their own devices rather than rely on aircraft IFE. A better option might just be to install power outlets in every seat and offer the free headphones.

  

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 32):
Considering Doug Parker's arrogance against customers, I think it is indeed possible, if not immediately likely, that he will order the IFE systems to be removed from all of AA's domestic aircraft.

Can we just drop the IFE nonsense? If IFE mattered VX would be printing money, while AS/G4/NK were losing billions, but it's the exact opposite. What is Parker's "arrogance against customers"? US' network is heavier on flow traffic, ie passengers have a choice over what carrier/hub they flow over, and they have continued to choose US regardless of what IFE they are or aren't offering, and US continues to make money. Sounds like passengers have spoken (again) loud and clear that IFE is not something they're willing to pay for.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-02-14 11:50:25 and read 19785 times.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 42):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
A hostile takeover???? AS doesnt want to be sold.

And AA wanted to come out of bankruptcy without merger. Can't always get what you want. Times, and competition, always change.

AA was in bankruptcy and can't always get what they want. AS is healthy, profitable, successful and has a very loyal customer following. They certainly can get what they want right now.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-14 12:11:53 and read 19605 times.

Quoting wingnutmn (Reply 41):
Doug Parker is best to keep them fractured, because the pilots at US are an absolute bargain right now at their current pay.

Parker I think just made a sacrifice of this bargain, because at the first vote, the pilot contracts will be set.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 42):
AS doesn't need to get involved. But, DL may get involved to protect itself.

DL should be fine. Nothing to protect, really.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 42):
It is not the number of competitors, it is the strength and reach of the competitors. A combined AA/US could be a bigger headache than the two seperately.

And it will be. However, I think ultimately it is UA that will feel the bigger impact, from the loss of the US codeshare with nothing to take its place.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-02-14 12:22:33 and read 19472 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 36):

As far as IFE goes, I know a lot of people who say that no one pays the fees for the service and hand helds are taking over. While growth might be stagnant, worldwide revenues for 2012 from IFE was 936 million. So while not a drastic number - IFE units are getting lighter, more reliable, and advertisers are willing to pay quite a bit for that captive audience. IFE is probably not going away - but it will definitely need to be tweaked to offer more value to the consumer. I agree 100% with you in that Doug Parker is a very smart guy so if you see IFE on the new American there is obviously a business case.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: diverdave
Posted 2013-02-14 12:27:12 and read 19430 times.

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 42):
Or the other airlines will have wished they bought a refinery. Too early to tell, though.

There was a smiley after my comment. Richard Anderson is a smart businessman, and I expect the refinery to succeed for Delta.

David

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-02-14 12:29:55 and read 19462 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
On the other hand, DL is now #3. They have become the new US: lots of hubs in the East, one hub in the West that doesn't really serve as a gateway to much of anything, a great operation, improving product and customer service metrics, but ultimately a challenging network. I think we'll see DL try to make headway in NYC, LAX, and SEA, to grow a network that is competitive with the new AA and UA.

No matter what anyone thinks of the communities they serve, ATL, DTW and MSP are FORTRESS HUBS that offer far more than their fair share to support the profitability of Delta. Delta would not trade its position in DTW/MSP for UA's ORD/DEN operations or AA's ORD/PHX operations.

And I'm not just talking about domestic markets. AA wishes its ORD hub could support what DTW can. MSP is light years stronger than UA's DEN hub.

The point is that these carriers will all be about the same size. Each will have strengths and weaknesses. To classify a carrier that has over 450 daily departures from NYC as "the new US" is just silly. There is little challenging about Delta's network. Three strong fortress hubs, one smallish but geographically isolated fortress hub, a strong #2 and growing position in NYC. A balanced global network. What is the challenge? Certainly it is not more challenging than having a fortress hub in CLT, which isn't much bigger than Cincinnati. Or being a distant #2 at ORD. Or a distant #3 in NYC. Let's be real, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. Not one of these carriers is at a significant advantage. And the revenue data proves it.

DL may be #3 today, but it may not be a year from now. The variance in revenues is pretty small and Delta's unit revenue growth has been outpacing the others. As AA/US spend the next five years working out the kinks, Delta will be doing exactly what you suggest, making headway in NYC, LAX and SEA. They'll also be expanding equity stakes in international carriers like VS.

At the end of the say...its a three-way draw. Now lets see who can run the better airline.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 29):
At some point you cant lose money at both.

Delta DOES NOT lose money at LAX. I don't know where people come up with that.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-14 12:30:24 and read 19418 times.

Quoting delimit (Reply 38):
I haven't sen it mentioned, but DL can't be sad to watch the rationalization that will happen between CLT and the AA network. Not only is DL losing a competitor, but they are.going to become stronger in the SE as a result.

No they wont. They will become slightly weaker but not much. When UA was looking at US in 2000, there was going to be west coast point of sale traffic going to the SE that would have shifted from DL to UA. I expect the same but on a slightly lesser scale. CLT will not get substantially smaller and the overall growth of AA will result in some share shift away from DL to AA.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 32):
Considering Doug Parker's arrogance against customers, I think it is indeed possible, if not immediately likely, that he will order the IFE systems to be removed from all of AA's domestic aircraft.

AA isnt going to remove their IFE.

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 33):
Is US and HP finally combined or is it still East and West? Remember it still has to pass the DOT and there is a 50/50 chance that it could not pass mustard.

??????????????????????sigh

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-02-14 12:30:32 and read 19435 times.

Merge with UA. Three is a crowd. Consolidation is required.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-14 12:32:30 and read 19417 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 36):
The only way DL could force a buyout is if they were somehow able to come to a backroom agreement with AA to cut off all codesharing with AS, giving AS the option to either accept buyout or wither on the vine. AA would never go along with that, so DL's hands are tied. And now with US tying up with AA, that is even more network feed to funnel into the AS network via the AA codeshare.

Delta could force the issue by making an offer. That's all it takes. If Delta makes a serious offer the management and board of Alaska have to give it serious consideration. And of the three remaining legacy carriers in the U.S. DL is the only one in a position to make an offer at this time.

That being said I don't think this is going to happen, I'm only pointing out that IF Delta wanted to make a bid for Alaska they can do it at any time.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-14 12:36:12 and read 19068 times.

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 33):
Remember it still has to pass the DOT and there is a 50/50 chance that it could not pass mustard.

Passing mustard sounds uncomfortable. Might burn a little bit.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-02-14 12:37:47 and read 19099 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 12):
I was thinking if Doug Parker decides on getting rid of IFE on AA domestic flights, perhaps DL would counter it by retrofitting more of its domestic aircraft with AVOD in effort to win loyal AA customers who enjoy having IFE on domestic flights.




I would say that once Parker has decided what brand of napkins to stock in the employee cafeteria he may look at the IFE situation, but it won't be a priority item

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 12:40:04 and read 19090 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
Or being a distant #2 at ORD. Or a distant #3 in NYC.

I don't think it's fair to call AA a "distant" #2 at ORD or "distant" #3 in NYC. In both markets, they are quite large, and not all that dramatically far off from the next largest carrier.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
Let's be real, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. Not one of these carriers is at a significant advantage.

Agreed. All three are going to be enormous, vibrant competitors with supremely impressive networks.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-14 12:47:39 and read 18904 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
Delta DOES NOT lose money at LAX. I don't know where people come up with that.

I bet they do. The market is fragmented. Not dominated by a few large companies and fares are very competitive. UA and AA lost money there when oil was under $30. I think ATL does well and even NRT does well. Hawaii may do ok. But they lose tons on the transcons and SLC is pretty bad too. SLC-LAX use to be one of DL's biggest money losing routes, over $10m per year. I bet they lose on SFO all intra-CA flying.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 13:01:40 and read 18669 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
Delta would not trade its position in DTW/MSP for UA's ORD/DEN operations or AA's ORD/PHX operations.

I don't think you can look at those pairs in isolation. I think DL would absolutely trade DTW/MSP/SLC for ORD/DEN and a West Coast hub in a second.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
AA wishes its ORD hub could support what DTW can.

What is that? A fifth AMS? AA has more transatlantic seats and could easily match DTW in transpacific seats if it added two more destinations. It could also add destinations to LAX or DFW; DL is much more limited in that regard.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
There is little challenging about Delta's network

It's crystal clear there is; many of DL's recent network moves have been to solve the challenges of DL's network. Sure the fortress hubs are fine, but CVG/MEM were fortress hubs too--if that was all it took then why are they focusing so much on LAX/NYC/SEA?

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):
Not one of these carriers is at a significant advantage. And the revenue data proves it.

From a network perspective, I think without question UA has the strongest network, and a AA/US is within spitting distance. From a network + management + financial perspective, they're all pretty equal.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-14 14:13:04 and read 17574 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 54):
I don't think it's fair to call AA a "distant" #2 at ORD or "distant" #3 in NYC. In both markets, they are quite large, and not all that dramatically far off from the next largest carrier.

In fact, the combined airline will be #1 in O&D traffic at O'Hare, surprassing UA.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-14 14:27:07 and read 17291 times.

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 33):

There is no legit reason why this merger will be shot down. The president has been set through the DL/NW and CO/UA mergers. There is even less overlap with this merger.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: luv2fly
Posted 2013-02-14 14:30:12 and read 17200 times.

US and HP still don't have their house in order from that merger. That right there will be brought up.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-14 14:32:17 and read 17158 times.

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 59):

By who? Not US or AA. Not the employees either.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-14 14:35:10 and read 17113 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 58):
The president

Why bring Mr Obama into this? Oh, you meant 'precedent'.   

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-02-14 14:35:19 and read 17177 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 54):
I don't think it's fair to call AA a "distant" #2 at ORD or "distant" #3 in NYC. In both markets, they are quite large, and not all that dramatically far off from the next largest carrier.

Pre-merger, UA has a 10 point revenue share advantage at ORD. AA only generates 31% of all ORD revenues. That will improve a bit when the merger happens, but all US ORD markets overlap with AA, so you can expect that capacity will be pulled from those and reallocated. In NYC, UA has a 29% Revenue Share, Delta is at 25% (and still growing). Combined, AA and US are at 21%. They key in NYC, however, is that Delta is still in the ramp up phase of its expansion. The data is from 3Q12. Given slot assets and network concentration, it is likely Delta will end up in a virtual tie with UA in a few years time, especially given that its network is more highly concentrated on O&D due to the split operation.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 55):
I bet they do. The market is fragmented. Not dominated by a few large companies and fares are very competitive. UA and AA lost money there when oil was under $30. I think ATL does well and even NRT does well. Hawaii may do ok. But they lose tons on the transcons and SLC is pretty bad too. SLC-LAX use to be one of DL's biggest money losing routes, over $10m per year. I bet they lose on SFO all intra-CA flying.

You are almost completely wrong on every account. When oil was $30 the entire industry was losing money. Now oil is over $80 and Delta is the most profitable it has ever been. If your analysis is based on what used to happen, you are just completely out of step with reality.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
I don't think you can look at those pairs in isolation. I think DL would absolutely trade DTW/MSP/SLC for ORD/DEN and a West Coast hub in a second.

You are wrong, wrong, wrong. I've literally asked this question of the right people before. Delta likes where they are.

For YE 2Q12, UA generated $4M a day in O&D revenue at ORD. Delta generated $3.8M at DTW on a nearly equivalent average fare. UA generates 14.4M passenger boardings per year at ORD while Delta generates 13M at DTW. So they aren't dramatically different. They key is that DTW has no competition and significantly more room for growth (which is going to happen). DTW/MSP act in tandem to flank ORD and provide a competitive position that Delta is happy to have.

Delta generated $3.9M a day in O&D Revenue at MSP while UA generated $2.5 at DEN. Delta carries 12.7M paxs a year from MSP, while UA generates 10.5M at DEN. Again, the key here is that Delta has no significant competition at MSP. UA has little room to grow at DEN under virtually any definition of the word.

Now I'm not claiming that these are head-to-head matchups. IAH is a great hub, but ATL is better. EWR is great, but not appreciably better than LGA+EWR. UA's west coast presence is certainly stronger, but not dominant. Delta has been able to grow more effectively on the West Coast than UA has been able to manage in the Southeast/Florida.

Again, my point is, these companies are all going to be roughly equivalent at the end of the day.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
What is that? A fifth AMS? AA has more transatlantic seats and could easily match DTW in transpacific seats if it added two more destinations. It could also add destinations to LAX or DFW; DL is much more limited in that regard.

So why haven't they? In fact, they've pretty much done nothing in the ORD-Europe market but cancel service over the past few years. Delta can easily add more destinations from ATL or SEA or JFK. What's your point?

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
It's crystal clear there is; many of DL's recent network moves have been to solve the challenges of DL's network. Sure the fortress hubs are fine, but CVG/MEM were fortress hubs too--if that was all it took then why are they focusing so much on LAX/NYC/SEA?

CVG and MEM were small market fortress hubs. Just like CLT is. Watch and see what happens there.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
From a network perspective, I think without question UA has the strongest network, and a AA/US is within spitting distance. From a network + management + financial perspective, they're all pretty equal.

Mesmerized by route maps, huh? If UA had a stronger network than Delta, they'd be out-performing Delta. But they aren't even coming close. The three networks are roughly equivalent. While having hubs in big O&D markets may sound good. If you don't dominate those markets, or if they are growth-constrained, there isn't much advantage. Airlines mint the money at their big-market fortress hubs where they have a dominant O&D market share. The strength of every network is based on the strength of those hubs.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-02-14 14:39:15 and read 17041 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 57):
In fact, the combined airline will be #1 in O&D traffic at O'Hare, surprassing UA.

Yep. You are correct. I just checked it. UA will still have a revenue advantage. And, of course, this assumes that AA/US don't consolidate their ORD flying in a way that reduces traffic.

Since the question was how does it impact Delta, I'd say that having UA and AA bumping heads at ORD only makes Delta more happy to be flanking ORD from DTW and MSP. Fair enough?

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-14 14:44:56 and read 16949 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
Pre-merger, UA has a 10 point revenue share advantage at ORD. AA only generates 31% of all ORD revenues. That will improve a bit when the merger happens, but all US ORD markets overlap with AA, so you can expect that capacity will be pulled from those and reallocated. In NYC, UA has a 29% Revenue Share, Delta is at 25% (and still growing). Combined, AA and US are at 21%. They key in NYC, however, is that Delta is still in the ramp up phase of its expansion. The data is from 3Q12. Given slot assets and network concentration, it is likely Delta will end up in a virtual tie with UA in a few years time, especially given that its network is more highly concentrated on O&D due to the split operation.

Are you once again citing domestic revenue share as if international is irrelevant?

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 32):

Considering Doug Parker's arrogance against customers, I think it is indeed possible, if not immediately likely, that he will order the IFE systems to be removed from all of AA's domestic aircraft.

Actually, the airline has already confirmed it will continue going forward with fleet upgrade plans, including IFE.

Quote:
DD: It’s tough to delve into more things and we have to wait for regulatory approval but, clearly, high-value customers are extremely important to making this airline succeed (the new American) so you will continue to see the types of investments that we’ve made in the product including more in flight Wi-Fi, more and improved in-flight entertainment systems, 100% aisle access in business class, new lie-flat seating. These are the things we’re dedicated to delivering to our customers.
http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler....er-on-frequent-and-premium-flyers/

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-02-14 14:46:49 and read 16934 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 6):
Why does everyone keep bringing up MIA delta is not starting a hub there nor is AA/US going to leave or sell it.

According to some here, DL has it's eyes set on JFK, LAX, and MIA. Two are currently under a build-up, leaving one (MIA) left to be dealt with. Oh, and Alaska Airlines of course is the fourth. So, it is brought up because we have been told by "those in the know" that DL wants it.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
Pre-merger, UA has a 10 point revenue share advantage at ORD. AA only generates 31% of all ORD revenues. That will improve a bit when the merger happens, but all US ORD markets overlap with AA, so you can expect that capacity will be pulled from those and reallocated. In NYC, UA has a 29% Revenue Share, Delta is at 25% (and still growing). Combined, AA and US are at 21%. They key in NYC, however, is that Delta is still in the ramp up phase of its expansion. The data is from 3Q12. Given slot assets and network concentration, it is likely Delta will end up in a virtual tie with UA in a few years time, especially given that its network is more highly concentrated on O&D due to the split operation.

DL is clearly the best performing legacy, and I am mildly surprised at how they have managed the post-merger process. They are the one to beat right now. However, I think UA has the potential to out-gun them if they can get their management problems fixed. AA? Well, I just don't know.

-Dave

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-02-14 14:58:04 and read 16706 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 64):
Are you once again citing domestic revenue share as if international is irrelevant?

U.S. carriers report international revenues in DB1B. So the data includes domestic and international for those carriers.

Most foreign flags don't report to DB1B which is what makes it incomplete. So, to your point, UA and AA probably actually have lower Revenue Share numbers than I stated if you include the foreign carriers. But the numbers are accurate apples-to-apples comparison to each other and to Delta's position at DTW.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-14 14:58:09 and read 16709 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
It's crystal clear there is; many of DL's recent network moves have been to solve the challenges of DL's network. Sure the fortress hubs are fine, but CVG/MEM were fortress hubs too--if that was all it took then why are they focusing so much on LAX/NYC/SEA?

Bingo.

If it was all so well and good with everything that was gained with the Northwest merger, why the push in New York?

If it was all so well and good with everything that was gained by the merger, why the push in LA?

If everything was so well and good with the slot swap with US and the AF/KLM JBA, why the need to buy 49% of Virgin Atlantic?

I am going to venture a guess. Because after all those moves, the corporate contracts were still sticking with AA. As it turns out, AA still had the better network from NYC to LHR, NYC to LAX and vice-versa.

Well the AA network just got a whole lot better. With the merger, AA closes the gap with DL at LGA, virtually eliminating whatever competitive advantage Delta gained with the slot swap. With the merger, AA solidifies its position in all transcon markets and adds at least two new ones, just at the same time that Delta will be reentering the LAX/BOS market and was probably considering entering the LAX/DC market. On both those routes, Delta will now be competing against a new AA which will be #1 at LAX, almost #1 in Boston, and #1 at DCA, Should be fun to watch.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: 1337Delta764
Posted 2013-02-14 15:02:11 and read 16657 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 64):
Actually, the airline has already confirmed it will continue going forward with fleet upgrade plans, including IFE.

Quote:DD: It’s tough to delve into more things and we have to wait for regulatory approval but, clearly, high-value customers are extremely important to making this airline succeed (the new American) so you will continue to see the types of investments that we’ve made in the product including more in flight Wi-Fi, more and improved in-flight entertainment systems, 100% aisle access in business class, new lie-flat seating. These are the things we’re dedicated to delivering to our customers.

Knowing Parker's track record, I would seriously take all of these statements with a grain of salt. Airline CEOs don't always do as they say; for example in the DL/NW merger Richard Anderson said they would buy from both Boeing and Airbus, yet since the merger DL has bought exclusively from Boeing.

[Edited 2013-02-14 15:02:38]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-14 15:18:22 and read 16436 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):

Jet atlanta. I know what I'm talking about. I'm one of the few non 13 year old airline CEO wannabes. I'm talking about 1999-2000. UAL and AA were both losing money in LAX while making over a billion dollars system wide profits. Nobody except WN makes money in LAX. Nothing has happened in LAX to make the situation better. Since then B6 and VX have entered making things in LAX worse not better.



CLT will not be reduced in size or scope on any large fashion. Anyone who compares CLT to MEM or CVG is clueless. I won't even waste my time explaining why.

A.net use to be a place where airline employees and retirees use to get together and chat. Recently it seems the site has been taken over by teenagers and those who know nothing about not only airline economics but simple general business. The list of absurdities is too long to mention. But they are all over the place. From Delta stealing MIA away from AA to Parker taking IFE out if AA aircraft to UA opening a new hub I guess anywhere in the SE but Macon. A.net is no longer a serious site for discussion of airline economics.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 15:33:14 and read 16211 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
EWR is great, but not appreciably better than LGA+EWR.

I assume you mean LGA+JFK, and I also assume you're joking because a split hub is far less optimal than a single hub, especially if you're duking it out with AA and B6.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
Again, my point is, these companies are all going to be roughly equivalent at the end of the day.

UA has 3-4 daily tpacs to HKG/PVG/PEK; DL has 1-2, or in the case of HKG, zero. Where is its next best tpac add? In SEA where it depends on a competitor for feed? In LAX where it'd be the third after UA and AA? In ATL where nothing outside of NRT has worked? DL has a hub in NRT but no good way to overfly the hub from its existing mainland hubs, hence the expansion into LAX/SEA. What about Latin America? In most cases AA and UA serve Central and South America from multiple hubs. DL it's ATL or bust, and it consistently under performs in the region. The DL/AM tie up is a plus, but there's little Mexican demand to any of DL's legacy hubs, which again necessitates the expansion into LAX/JFK. In Europe what does DL do? The last best add from JFK was some seasonal 757 to some place that is probably no longer with us. ATL long ago hit its peak of transatlantic destinations. SLC/DTW/MSP don't generate enough demand for much else.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
So why haven't they? In fact, they've pretty much done nothing in the ORD-Europe market but cancel service over the past few years. Delta can easily add more destinations from ATL or SEA or JFK. What's your point?

AA is bigger to Europe than DL is to DTW, and everyone has been canceling European service lately. DL's JFK transatlantic hub is practically a seasonal hub. What is DL going to add to DTW next with 4-5 daily AMS flights? Or ATL where they've cut probably 10 last best adds? Or SEA where they have to depend on AS?

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
If UA had a stronger network than Delta, they'd be out-performing Delta.

Management and costs equal, yes I think they would. But UA is much earlier on its merger trajectory, and its management is not the same as DL, so I think it's still to early to say much of anything. But to say DL's network doesn't present challenges, some of which they are addressing, is like saying everything is fine in the Pacific for AA/US.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-14 15:33:28 and read 16246 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 68):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 64):
Actually, the airline has already confirmed it will continue going forward with fleet upgrade plans, including IFE.

Quote:DD: It’s tough to delve into more things and we have to wait for regulatory approval but, clearly, high-value customers are extremely important to making this airline succeed (the new American) so you will continue to see the types of investments that we’ve made in the product including more in flight Wi-Fi, more and improved in-flight entertainment systems, 100% aisle access in business class, new lie-flat seating. These are the things we’re dedicated to delivering to our customers.

Knowing Parker's track record, I would seriously take all of these statements with a grain of salt. Airline CEOs don't always do as they say; for example in the DL/NW merger Richard Anderson said they would buy from both Boeing and Airbus, yet since the merger DL has bought exclusively from Boeing.

I wouldn't. It's a whole new ballgame, and Parker can't allow the airline to adapt US service standards. He's not a total idiot, he knows that.

Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fanboys.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-14 15:39:07 and read 16130 times.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 68):
Knowing Parker's track record, I would seriously take all of these statements with a grain of salt.

Parker's track record is delivering serious profits with customer-appropriate in-flight benefits. AA caters to a different clientele in many ways than US. There will be no mass exodus from AA over IFE. Since you fly DL most often, I don't even see why this would be an issue for you anyway.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 15:39:09 and read 16154 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 71):
Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fanboys.

Well, US service is not that bad, in fact it's gotten pretty good reviews up front with the new product. And AA's service hasn't been that great recently, possibly ever. If I had a dime for every time I heard someone in Latin America telling me how much they hate AA, I'd be rich. Regardless of what Parker does, I can guarantee you one thing, people will throw tantrums and foam at the mouth remembering how great AA (or US) never was 

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-14 15:44:20 and read 16087 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 73):
I can guarantee you one thing, people will throw tantrums and foam at the mouth remembering how great AA (or US) never was

Truer words have never been spoken

I still shake my head in wonder at the UA crowd on FlyerTalk. Go back to 2008 and read what they were saying then...

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 71):
Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fanboys.

They're just salivating at the thought of competing against CO technology and US service  

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 16:13:10 and read 15673 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
Pre-merger, UA has a 10 point revenue share advantage at ORD.

And you call a seperation of 10 basis points "distant?"   

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
EWR is great, but not appreciably better than LGA+EWR.

Please. I have great respect for you and what you post, but that is ridiculous.

LGA+JFK (which I presume you were referring to) is appreciably inerior to EWR.

EWR can cater to much of the same local market - plus some unique local market of its own - and, critically, can handle both tons of connections and tons of O&D, both domestic and international.

LGA+JFK is simply incapable of that. Both airports can cater for some connections, and plenty of O&D, buth neither is capable of handling both O&D and connctions - to the same level - as EWR.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: SESGDL
Posted 2013-02-14 16:27:55 and read 15485 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
From a network perspective, I think without question UA has the strongest network, and a AA/US is within spitting distance. From a network + management + financial perspective, they're all pretty equal.

How is AA/US even remotely in spitting distance? What did they gain, a hub in PHX? There's going to have to be serious rationalization of NYC/PHL service and PHX/LAX/DFW service with this merger. These hubs compete with eachother and capacity must be shifted accordingly. AA/US still lacks a competitive Pacific network. For everyone to infer that suddenly AA/US are a perfect match, when everyone a few months ago was saying it was a horrible idea and never going to happen is a bit puzzling.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
Well the AA network just got a whole lot better. With the merger, AA closes the gap with DL at LGA, virtually eliminating whatever competitive advantage Delta gained with the slot swap. With the merger, AA solidifies its position in all transcon markets and adds at least two new ones, just at the same time that Delta will be reentering the LAX/BOS market and was probably considering entering the LAX/DC market. On both those routes, Delta will now be competing against a new AA which will be #1 at LAX, almost #1 in Boston, and #1 at DCA, Should be fun to watch.

This merger doesn't close the gap at LGA, where DL will still be larger, especially with cuts that will undoubtedly be made to DCA and other competing routes once the integration of AA/US begins. How does US solidify any of AA's transcon markets? Last I knew US wasn't operating from anywhere on the West Coast to any places other than its hubs. This merger doesn't significantly change the market dynamics in any of the markets you mention (US little to the table at LAX, BOS has become B6's market, where fares on most routes are simply too low to compete; DCA provides the strongest case, where divesting of assets will undoubtedly occur.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 71):
Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fanboys.

And funny how you said that this merger was never going to happen.

To imply that DL or UA are concerned about this merger is simply wrong, in my opinion; this merger helps both airlines as additional capacity are surely on their way, so too are higher fares. Other than simply being larger, AA/US is still at global network disadvantage to UA and DL because of its severe lack of a Transpacific network. Overall, this merger changes the market dynamics domestically far more than anything else; US's only strength internationally is its PHL hub. If everyone's speculation is correct then PHX will be little more than a spoke in the coming years, with AA once again back to its current position in the Central West as a bit-player. SLC and DEN are the only true hubs in the region and AA's not going to gain anything from US. CLT will likely be cut, especially to Latin America where MIA is better suited. Either JFK or PHL will be rationalized, as the two can't function as dual hubs serving the same market. JFK may become the O&D Transatlantic hub with PHL serving as the main connecting hub, but both will cease to function in tandem the way that each does today. In the end, I see AA's hubs being, in order from larger to smallest: DFW, CLT, MIA, ORD, PHL, and LAX. To anyone who thinks this network will somehow cause behemoth's UA and DL consternation is unfounded. Think again. And my analysis doesn't even begin to mention the trainwreck that's about to ensue with AA/US labor and costs of operation. I think AA would've been far better alone, but shareholders don't think beyond their initial merger payouts. It will be interesting.

Jeremy

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 16:50:37 and read 14966 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
How is AA/US even remotely in spitting distance? What did they gain, a hub in PHX? T

Well, not much really, but AA already had a solid network to begin with: it has a solid Transatlantic network, obviously the largest Latin American network, a domestic network that wasn't lacking much of anything, and even a decent Transpacific network if you factor in JL. Even without US, I think AA could double its Pacific network and be fairly close to UA in every major geography.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
For everyone to infer that suddenly AA/US are a perfect match

I don't think anyone is saying that. The music stopped and these were the two that didn't have seats.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: tommy767
Posted 2013-02-14 17:26:20 and read 14451 times.

Honestly, as long as DL is making profits, I don't think they are going to care at all about AA/US. DL does well in Asia, almost as well as UA and AA will never be as good out in NRT.

The biggest concern is for UA and ORD. UA should protect their turf. LAX is a toss up -- so many different airlines offering good service that's it's a wash.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-14 17:31:52 and read 14359 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 71):
Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fanboys.

And interestingly enough the only people that think that nothing will change now that American's top management is basically getting kicked to the curb and replaced by US's top management are all AA fanboys.

With Parker and Kirby taking over they are not going to move to Dallas and say "OK keep doing what you were doing. Don't mind us."

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-14 17:39:44 and read 14254 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
And funny how you said that this merger was never going to happen.

No. It had been pretty obvious this was going to happen as of late, but I didn't think it would happen before AMR emerged from BK because I didn't - and still don't, like you - think this merger is a good idea because of the potential labour and cost problems the merged airline will have; especially compared to what a solo-emerging AMR would have had.

Quoting klkla (Reply 79):
And interestingly enough the only people that think that nothing will change now that American's top management is basically getting kicked to the curb and replaced by US's top management are all AA fanboys.

Who said nothing will change? Plenty will change; but I'm am sure the new airline is absolutely sure it needs to retain its premium edge. Again, Parker isn't an idiot. Although I know you would love for him to be and ruin AA's product.

Further, the merged airline is 72% AMR shares and 28% US; and while Parker will be CEO, two-thirds of the board comes from AMR and its creditors. So, yeah, not exactly being kicked to the curb.

Parker knows what AA did right: it has always been able to extract market-leading average fares - including at LAX, LGA and JFK - and an envious amount of corporate travel contracts (despite a weakening network) thanks to focusing on a product more premium than the others. Parker also knows that to continue that advantage, it needs to continue that elevated service.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2013-02-14 17:48:23 and read 14116 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
CVG and MEM were small market fortress hubs. Just like CLT is. Watch and see what happens there.

I don't see the comparison. The roles of CVG and MEM as hubs were largely duplicated by DTW and ATL. There is no similar analogy for CLT.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 17:54:16 and read 14092 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
How is AA/US even remotely in spitting distance?

Compared to UA, AA will basically have:

* a far better network in the southeast U.S.
* a far better network to Latin America
* a better network in the southwest U.S.
* as good or better a network in the northeast U.S.
* as good or better a network in the south-central U.S.
* as good a network in the midwest U.S.
* as good a network to Europe
* a worse network intra-west coast
* a worse network in the Rockies
* a worse network to Asia

Compared to DL, AA will basically have:

* a far better network in the south-central U.S.
* a far better network to Latin America
* a better network in the southwest U.S.
* as good or better a network in the northeast U.S.
* as good a network in the southeast U.S.
* as good a network in the midwest U.S.
* as good a network to Europe
* as good (bad) a network intra-west coast U.S.
* a worse network in the Rockies
* a worse network to Asia

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
What did they gain, a hub in PHX?

AA gains far more. AA will now have the most dense coverage of the eastern U.S. with three perfectly-situated hubs (PHL, CLT, MIA). AA will still have two extremely well-placed east-west connecting megahubs (DFW and ORD). AA will have leading or very strong local presences in many of the nation's largest and most important business markets (LAX, NYC, WAS). AA will even more handily dominate Latin America, and will now essentially be tied with UA and DL to Europe.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
There's going to have to be serious rationalization of NYC/PHL service and PHX/LAX/DFW service with this merger.

PHX yes, the rest no.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
AA/US still lacks a competitive Pacific network.

True, but it's improving. And frankly, DL's Pacific network - while impressive today - is a bit tenuous, in my view, and is also going to need some major work (although off a stronger base, no doubt, compared to AA) in coming years.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
This merger doesn't close the gap at LGA

No it doesn't - and that's the beauty of this merger. It doesn't need to. DL needs LGA to be huge since they need it to serve as a connecting hub - a function for which it is absolutely suboptimal. PHL, on the other hand, can handle connections in/out of the northeast for AA, leaving their huge LGA (not to mention JFK) slot holding to be focused on the enormous NYC O&D market.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
This merger doesn't significantly change the market dynamics in any of the markets you mention

It most definitely does.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
BOS has become B6's market

... and yet AA will now be essentially tied with B6 in BOS.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
with AA once again back to its current position in the Central West as a bit-player.

Not a bit player, but certainly not a huge player, either - but nobody can be huge everywhere. AA is a relatively smaller player intra-west and in the Rockies, while DL is a relatively smaller player in the intra-west and south-central. So AA and DL are basically tied at 2 U.S. regions each in which they are weak. But, if given a choice, and excluding their common weak region (intra-west), I would much rather have AA's other weak region (the Rockies) over DL's (south-central). The south-central U.S. is far, far larger - economically and demographically - than the Rockies.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
Either JFK or PHL will be rationalized, as the two can't function as dual hubs serving the same market. JFK may become the O&D Transatlantic hub with PHL serving as the main connecting hub, but both will cease to function in tandem the way that each does today.

You're right - the two can't function as dual hubs serving the same market - but of course they don't need to, and won't. JFK, like LGA, will be primarily optimized for O&D and handle only those connections that make sense above and beyond PHL, which will be optimized as the prime connecting hub.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-14 18:32:37 and read 13660 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
This merger doesn't close the gap at LGA, where DL will still be larger, especially with cuts that will undoubtedly be made to DCA and other competing routes once the integration of AA/US begins.
Quoting commavia (Reply 82):
No it doesn't - and that's the beauty of this merger. It doesn't need to. DL needs LGA to be huge since they need it to serve as a connecting hub - a function for which it is absolutely suboptimal. PHL, on the other hand, can handle connections in/out of the northeast for AA, leaving their huge LGA (not to mention JFK) slot holding to be focused on the enormous NYC O&D market.

As of Dec 2012 (12 months ending), according to the PA...

Delta 9.3m passengers

American 5.1m

US 3.3m

So, as of today, yes, the gap has closed considerably between the old AA and Delta.

Now, Delta may still be in the process of ramping up at LGA. But here's the rub, hubs like the one Delta wants to build at LGA only work if Delta is considerably larger than the second largest airline at the hub. I think the threshold is something like 63% of the emplanements. (Some consulting company figured this out a while ago.) With the AA/US merger, Delta is not coming close to that. And, with the slots the new AA is gaining at LGA, it will be able to do enough to thwart any network benefits Delta has gained from the slot swap.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: questions
Posted 2013-02-14 19:04:09 and read 13208 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 82):
And frankly, DL's Pacific network - while impressive today - is a bit tenuous, in my view, and is also going to need some major work (although off a stronger base, no doubt, compared to AA) in coming years.

What do you mean, "is a bit tenuous"?

Quoting commavia (Reply 82):
AA will even more handily dominate Latin America, and will now essentially be tied with UA and DL to Europe.

What did US add to AA's European network?

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 83):
Now, Delta may still be in the process of ramping up at LGA. But here's the rub, hubs like the one Delta wants to build at LGA only work if Delta is considerably larger than the second largest airline at the hub. I think the threshold is something like 63% of the emplanements. (Some consulting company figured this out a while ago.) With the AA/US merger, Delta is not coming close to that. And, with the slots the new AA is gaining at LGA, it will be able to do enough to thwart any network benefits Delta has gained from the slot swap.

Does anyone know how DL has defined "win New York"?

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-02-14 20:33:09 and read 12311 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
They have become the new US: lots of hubs in the East, one hub in the West that doesn't really serve as a gateway to much of anything, a great operation, improving product and customer service metrics, but ultimately a challenging network.

I don't see DL being disadvantaged by only having SLC as a hub, they really only need the four main hubs they have now to service their network. I could see them developing the NW United States, say SEA into a hub for the cross pacific flights. but I don't see them needing another hub in their network that includes DTW, ATL, MSP, and SEA as their hubs. What DL really needs is a pacific hub in say NRT or SEL. They would be wise to concentrate their efforts in the far east. Their alliance with KE would be the biggest plus for them.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-14 20:36:02 and read 12308 times.

Quoting questions (Reply 84):
What do you mean, "is a bit tenuous"?

NRT is not what it once was. USA-Japan suffers from overcapacity, and UA has proved more successful at establishing non-stop routes to Asia that avoid NRT than DL has. DL couldn't even make HKG work.

Quoting questions (Reply 84):
What did US add to AA's European network?

SNN, DUB, GLA, MUC, LIS, ATH, AMS

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 20:40:13 and read 12224 times.

Quoting questions (Reply 84):
What do you mean, "is a bit tenuous"?

I have articulated my opinion several times in other threads, so I won't waste everyone's time in this one beyond simply saying this: Delta's current Asian presence is exceedingly reliant on Japan, and in particular Narita. I believe that is - in the long run - strategically tenuous given that Delta faces intense local competition at Narita from local Japanese airlines with far larger networks there, and given that Delta's main competitors - particularly United but also increasingly AA - are overflying Narita to get to the main cites of north Asia.

I should clarify that I don't think Delta's presence in Asia is "tenuous" at all (although I do think it is in for some substantial changes in coming years of which cancelling Narita-Seoul is just the first step). I was specifically referring to the lead Delta currently enjoys over AA in the U.S.-Asia market, which I think is going to progressively shrink somewhat in coming years.

Quoting questions (Reply 84):
What did US add to AA's European network?

A lot.

USAirways added a substantial presence in Continental Europe on top of AA's already-sizable presence in a few key continental European cities (chiefly Paris) and of course AA's enormous presence in the U.K and London.

Net-net, AA will come out of this merger effectively tied with United across the Atlantic, and within a mere few points of market share of Delta.

Quoting questions (Reply 84):
Does anyone know how DL has defined "win New York"?

I believe the way Delta has defined it in the last few years has been less about market share, and more about revenue share. Delta has repeatedly placed emphasis in investor presentations on the gap in their "fair share" of revenue in New York bench marked against competitors (often, ironically, AA).

With regard to Delta vs AA specifically in New York, I think this merger is going to have a fairly big impact. When it comes to sheer enplanements, AA will still certainly be #3 in New York - no question about that. But, that will naturally now always be the case since, of course, Delta and United both need to have more market share in New York - both rely on it as a primary connecting hub, both domestic and international.

AA, on the other hand, no longer needs to worry about turning New York into a hub. Trying to do so at JFK was never going to really work anyway - at least not as well as a hub in Philadelphia will. AA can now optimize its very large slot holdings at LaGuardia and JFK for the local New York O&D market, and handle only certain connections not flown over the Philadelphia hub optimized for connecting flows.

AA will now have quite an impressive pool of slots to work with in New York, and their are plenty of overlappying routes and/or peak-time (0600-0900/1600-1900 at LGA, 1530-1930 at JFK) slots now being used suboptimally that can be redeployed to new markets.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-14 21:18:56 and read 11869 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 82):
... and yet AA will now be essentially tied with B6 in BOS.

It's funny that this merger has put BOS back into play for AA/US whether it was on purpose or not. It's obviously not a 'cornerstone' for AA and I'm convinced someone in planning just forgot about the last few DH2s flying for US out of BOS, but together they're once again a force in BOS.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 80):
despite a weakening network

I think people underestimate how strong the AA network was going into CH11 and merger talks. AA really never had a 'network' problem the way CO/UA/DL/NW did where they were totally missing huge geographies--it had a strong offering in every corner of the world, and with a perhaps an additional tpac flight from each of its hubs, it would have been in the same arena as any of the merged carriers.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-14 21:32:18 and read 11767 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 88):
It's funny that this merger has put BOS back into play for AA/US whether it was on purpose or not. It's obviously not a 'cornerstone' for AA and I'm convinced someone in planning just forgot about the last few DH2s flying for US out of BOS, but together they're once again a force in BOS.

Same case in RDU. Virtually tied with B6 at BOS; virtually tied with WN at RDU.

And I believe number two at SFO, now, too.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 21:49:55 and read 11603 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 89):
And I believe number two at SFO, now, too.

Yes, I believe so. According to the airport, AA was in essentially a 4-way tie with Delta, Southwest and Virgin America for second place at SFO. However, when combined with USAirways, AA will likely now become the #2 carrier there as well.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-14 22:00:38 and read 11480 times.

Quoting ezra (Thread starter):

Sit back and watch/laugh. Lets seem them get a complete joint pilot list before we start talking about how AA is going to own anyone. This thread is cute though. All these AA fan boys and such.

Oh and consolidation isn't over. As bad as all these fan boys don't want to see it, more is going to happen. Fares have to come up or airlines will be right back in BK.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
If it was all so well and good with everything that was gained with the Northwest merger, why the push in New York?

....Uh....Pre-merger. (and like....4 years pre-merger)

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
the AF/KLM JBA,

uh... pre-merger.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
AA closes the gap with DL at LGA, virtually eliminating whatever competitive advantage Delta gained with the slot swap

How about we look at real logic.
AA/US will have ~175 slots a LGA(without any given up, wont happen...Again. I personally think its wrong, But i see no way the DOT doesn't make them give up at least a handful of LGA slots.)
Delta has ~275 slots at LGA. That 100 more flights a day.... Your are on some good drugs if you think AA is going to "close the gap". Now, I show AA/US having flights to 21 cities(with CLT having flights from both) DL has 60ish. So Delta flies to nearly 3x the cities US/AA will. Even if they add some cities with the slots they have(like the 13 on PHL or 18 to CLT etc.) they can't even come close to near the scope of Delta. MAYBE half the size of Delta. maybe. (unless they kill the shuttle(even then, only 16 flights each to BOS/DCA), in which case you will be able to hear the celebration from the Delta GO all the way out on the west coast)

Man I love how you AA fan boys always seem to think AA is going to have all this magical growth in NYC. Still waiting for that.... *yawn*

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-14 22:11:01 and read 11396 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):
AA/US will have ~175 slots a LGA(without any given up, wont happen...Again. I personally think its wrong, But i see no way the DOT doesn't make them give up at least a handful of LGA slots.)

Then you don't know how antitrust law works and need to read a book.

US/AA give up zero LaGuardia slots. That's it. Case closed. I know it makes you mad, but that's how it is. You can't ask the second largest slot holder to give up slots when the largest slot holder doesn't have to!

There is one way and one way only under basic antitrust law principals that AA has to give up LGA slots: DOJ decides that the AA and DL, in owning roughly 75% of LGA slots between the two, have too much power at LaGuardia. If that is to happen, not only will AA have to give up slots, but DL would have to, proportionately, give up even more slots.

So DL better hope LGA slot concentration doesn't become an issue, because they will be th losers in that situation.

But DL and AA aren't worried, because it won't be an issue.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: peanuts
Posted 2013-02-14 22:13:16 and read 11393 times.

DL Response To AA/US Merger?

With all due respect, CEO's are in their position of employment to mostly "act" and "anticipate" market changes and competitive responses...they don't just sit and wait.
Obviously, RA has not been caught off guard here. Any of you think the JFK/LGA, Win New York, is all "by accident"? I'd hope not... DL had no choice here.

DL is moving on with its own course of action, already having anticipated AA/US as one.

DL will solidify SEA more and more, basically "forcing" AS to play ball with just them at some point. This merger will be very painless, to the surprise of our hardcore AS crew.

AS has become a "must win" for DL. If a merger with AS is not in the cards, I'd expect more and more organic growth, at AS' expense.

DL has its work cut out for them, no doubt. The actual AA/US merger has only sharpened UA's and DL's edges. I just don't believe AA/US' integration process will be a very smooth one. UA and DL will take some advantage of that.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-14 22:43:15 and read 11147 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):
How about we look at real logic.
AA/US will have ~175 slots a LGA(without any given up, wont happen...Again. I personally think its wrong, But i see no way the DOT doesn't make them give up at least a handful of LGA slots.)
Delta has ~275 slots at LGA. That 100 more flights a day.... Your are on some good drugs if you think AA is going to "close the gap". Now, I show AA/US having flights to 21 cities(with CLT having flights from both) DL has 60ish. So Delta flies to nearly 3x the cities US/AA will. Even if they add some cities with the slots they have(like the 13 on PHL or 18 to CLT etc.) they can't even come close to near the scope of Delta. MAYBE half the size of Delta. maybe. (unless they kill the shuttle(even then, only 16 flights each to BOS/DCA), in which case you will be able to hear the celebration from the Delta GO all the way out on the west coast)

All of the above ignores the point many of us have been making. Simply comparing slots and seat share misses the key point here from AA's perspective. Sure, AA is clearly not going to be as large at LGA as DL. But it doesn't need to be. DL needs LGA/JFK as connecting hubs, so it has to have lots of flights and lots of seats. AA needs only have a presence in New York's most important O&D markets in order to maintain a large, relevant presence in the local market - and AA is already largely there. There are only a relatively few major domestic O&D markets left that AA does not serve from LGA and/or JFK. The freed up LGA and JFK slots from this transaction should allow AA to build on that.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 93):
DL will solidify SEA more and more, basically "forcing" AS to play ball with just them at some point. This merger will be very painless, to the surprise of our hardcore AS crew.

AS has become a "must win" for DL. If a merger with AS is not in the cards, I'd expect more and more organic growth, at AS' expense.

I stand by my long-held assessment: DL may well try and "force" AS into a merger, but I believe they do so at their own peril. Assuming such a transaction would even receive regulatory approval, I think DL would be to some extent killing the goose that lays the golden egg. I realize DL would love control over the feed provided to their growing international operation at SEA, but DL's higher costs and the loss of the substantial incremental feed AA provides to the AS network would be a major economic challenge for the AS network as operated by DL.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-02-14 23:15:21 and read 10889 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 69):
A.net is no longer a serious site for discussion of airline economics.

Yet your argument seemed to be based purely on opinion and information from before 9/11. How is that "serious"?

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):
Jeremy

Not a criticism at all, but if you'd break your paragraph up it would be so much easier to follow. 15-20 lines of text in a block is a little too much for some of us to muddle through.  
Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):
How about we look at real logic.
AA/US will have ~175 slots a LGA(without any given up, wont happen...Again. I personally think its wrong, But i see no way the DOT doesn't make them give up at least a handful of LGA slots.)
Delta has ~275 slots at LGA.

That's real logic? Delta gets 275 slots but AA can't have 175? Oye....

-Dave

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-02-15 05:15:44 and read 9153 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 69):
I'm talking about 1999-2000. UAL and AA were both losing money in LAX while making over a billion dollars system wide profits.

???

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 71):
Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fan boys.



[ and anyone who thinks AA's current service is top level among legacy carriers is a bit of an AA fan boy wearing blinders

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-15 05:19:40 and read 9131 times.

And my point is it doesn't need to be. AA already flies from LGA to most of the major O&D business markets it needs to from LGA. The ones missing, in my mind, including IND, MCI, IAH, CVG and possibly DEN. To have an effective schedule capable of capturing local New York O&D business traffic, that requires no more than 10-15 slots, which AA will likely have.

[Edited 2013-02-15 05:54:46 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: toobz
Posted 2013-02-15 06:21:02 and read 8570 times.

I don't think DL really cares. If anything, like stated, they're down one competitor. They have been downsizing their ops to maximize profits. As long as they focus on the more important things like they've been doing, they'll be fine.
I'm sure ATL is going to have a good time watching this union disaster that is going to take place..

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: goldenstate
Posted 2013-02-15 06:35:14 and read 8413 times.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 93):
DL is moving on with its own course of action, already having anticipated AA/US as one.

Agree. At a high level, it's fairly obvious. Remain best in class operationally and financially. Continue improving product and service delivery. Pursue long term strategic initiatives and balance sheet delevering while everyone else is bogged down with integration, labor squabbling, and porking up their balance sheets with enormous aircraft orders.

Much of the "logic" in this thread reflects old and outdated ways of thinking about the industry. If "beating" the other legacies on a zero-sum basis were the objective, Delta would have needed a new objective early last year. But when it comes to long term corporate objectives, Delta does not benchmark itself against other airlines anymore and neither should American or United. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-02-15 07:10:19 and read 8049 times.

Quoting goldenstate (Reply 99):
Much of the "logic" in this thread reflects old and outdated ways of thinking about the industry. If "beating" the other legacies on a zero-sum basis were the objective, Delta would have needed a new objective early last year. But when it comes to long term corporate objectives, Delta does not benchmark itself against other airlines anymore and neither should American or United. A rising tide lifts all boats

Your post sums it up best.

It is not about "beating" the competitor, it is about running a profitable airline and delivering shareholder value.
DL is not strategically concerned about being the biggest or whatever. Sure, marketing will latch on to those ideals because it resonates well in advertising and to an unknowing public.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-15 07:14:21 and read 7989 times.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 100):
It is not about "beating" the competitor, it is about running a profitable airline and delivering shareholder value.

Sure, but the competitive dynamic affects both of those things, and it may be that the changed competitive dynamic requires a response to continue to maximize profit/returns.

In New York, for instance, AA's larger slot portfolio are going to allow it to be a more fearsome competitor for corporate contracts than it already is. That may require a response from DL.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: ripcordd
Posted 2013-02-15 07:25:41 and read 7885 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):

Well the senority list will be the quickest thing to work out cause everyone is going to doh senority its pretty simple sure some wont be happy but its over and done no more east west 1 group. I have to say unless BK laws change airlines will use as a tool to reshape their labour force and force changes on them once their costs go back up.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-15 07:41:43 and read 7721 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 76):

To imply that DL or UA are concerned about this merger is simply wrong, in my opinion; this merger helps both airlines as additional capacity are surely on their way, so too are higher fares.

I'm a little confused when you say this since AA just picked up a major SE hub that competes directly with ATL, now surpasses DL in the NE with a strong presence in BOS, NYC, PHL, and DCA, as well as moving up to become #1 at LAX.

As for UA, you do realize they just lost a significant amount of feed across their system as well as a major connecting hub in the SE right?

I'm not saying everyone is gonna be running for the hills but to say it's wrong that DL and UA aren't concerned about this merger means you're in complete denial or your naive and ignorant to what has just happened (and based on your input on this board I doubt it's the latter).

[Edited 2013-02-15 08:25:29]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-15 07:46:44 and read 7651 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
They have become the new US: lots of hubs in the East, one hub in the West that doesn't really serve as a gateway to much of anything, a

Well I would argue that LAX is now a hub for them too....

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
DL is losing money at LAX is what Delta is doing.

Evidence?

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: cageyjames
Posted 2013-02-15 07:52:43 and read 7611 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 104):
Well I would argue that LAX is now a hub for them too....

One man's hub is another man's focus city...

DL in LAX is complicated, but not a hub. I think you can say UA, AA and AS have hubs. DL doesn't even claim LAX is a focus city.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: superjeff
Posted 2013-02-15 08:31:20 and read 7186 times.

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 33):
Is US and HP finally combined or is it still East and West? Remember it still has to pass the DOT and there is a 50/50 chance that it could not pass mustard. ATT and T-Mobile got shot down, this could very well happen as well.

They operate under one certificate (HP's), and the only major non combined group is the pilots - but that is close to resolution. They've already passed muster with the feds, and I suspect that there won't be any problem on that end with the AA merger.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-15 08:38:18 and read 7118 times.

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 105):
DL in LAX is complicated, but not a hub. I think you can say UA, AA and AS have hubs. DL doesn't even claim LAX is a focus city.

I think you are are right. How can it be a hub when DL has no flights from LAX to ORD, DFW, and DCA/IAD?

While it does not lock DL out of those markets, the AA/US merger makes it more difficult for Delta to enter (at least) the DCA/IAD market as it would now be competing with two airlines going hub to hub on that route. That's the same problem Delta more or less has had on LAX/ORD and LAX/DFW.

It will be interesting to see how well Delta fares with their new LAX/BOS flight when from a competitive perspective DL remains the #4 airline at Boston just as the new AA improves its position there.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):
....Uh....Pre-merger. (and like....4 years pre-merger)

So, the slot swap, which is what I meant by the "push for New York", happened 4 years pre-merger? NO.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):
uh... pre-merger.

You missed the point. The argument Maverick was making was that the Delta network was not as complete as some would like to believe. To add to what he was saying, I made that point that despite what Delta fanboys told us about how great the AF/KLM joint venture was it turns out it did not help Delta in the one transatlantic market where Delta really needed to win from NYC, that being (LHR). That is why Delta bought a 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic. That happened weeks ago, not pre-merger.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 91):
How about we look at real logic.

Again, you missed the point. Commavia explained it to you again in Reply 94. I will just add one more thing. The number of slots at LGA is meaningless, especially since you make no effort to break them out between Air21 slots and peak/non-peak slots. (This begs the question what exactly did US give up in the slot swap when it retained a portfolio of slots which still allow it to run a full slate of peak flights to its non-small market, hubs?)

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-15 08:44:41 and read 7047 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 56):
I don't think you can look at those pairs in isolation. I think DL would absolutely trade DTW/MSP/SLC for ORD/DEN

Nobody wants DEN, maybe NK

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 62):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 55):
I bet they do. The market is fragmented. Not dominated by a few large companies and fares are very competitive. UA and AA lost money there when oil was under $30. I think ATL does well and even NRT does well. Hawaii may do ok. But they lose tons on the transcons and SLC is pretty bad too. SLC-LAX use to be one of DL's biggest money losing routes, over $10m per year. I bet they lose on SFO all intra-CA flying.

You are almost completely wrong on every account. When oil was $30 the entire industry was losing money. Now oil is over $80 and Delta is the most profitable it has ever been. If your analysis is based on what used to happen, you are just completely out of step with reality.

Just because DL is quite profitable it does not mean the airline isn't loss-leading. It is typical for 60%+ of an airline's routes to lose money on a fully allocated basis even when the airline is profitable. Anybody who disagrees with that assessment is not really familiar with airline P/L statements. There was a recent analysis that said that only 20% of B6's routes were profitable. Clearly, DL's challenged routes are in NYC/LAX and to a lesser extent SLC. MEM and CVG are probably also not great, but they are now small potatoes.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 69):
CLT will not be reduced in size or scope on any large fashion.

10-15% IMHO. PHX 70-80%.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2013-02-15 08:51:46 and read 6972 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 24):
DL is losing money at LAX is what Delta is doing.
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 27):
They are also losing money at LGA, but I don't expect them to vacate that market either  

Oh please; NOBODY on this board knows what any airline makes at their hubs (or if they are in a position to know they certainly aren't stupid enough to post it here).
There is NO WAY Delta loses money in NYC, LAX, and SLC like some on here claim. DL made more money last year than the other legacies combined. Don't let the facts get in your way. If what you both say is true, then AA loses money in ORD and UA loses money in DEN.

Quoting commavia (Reply 82):
Compared to UA, AA will basically have:

* a far better network in the southeast U.S.
* a far better network to Latin America
* a better network in the southwest U.S.
* as good or better a network in the northeast U.S.
* as good or better a network in the south-central U.S.
* as good a network in the midwest U.S.
* as good a network to Europe
* a worse network intra-west coast
* a worse network in the Rockies
* a worse network to Asia

Compared to DL, AA will basically have:

* a far better network in the south-central U.S.
* a far better network to Latin America
* a better network in the southwest U.S.
* as good or better a network in the northeast U.S.
* as good a network in the southeast U.S.
* as good a network in the midwest U.S.
* as good a network to Europe
* as good (bad) a network intra-west coast U.S.
* a worse network in the Rockies
* a worse network to Asia

Seriously, does everything have to be a competition? Every other thread on here is already about this merger and now we have to compare AA/US to UA and DL? How abou this: AA is going to be the biggest, fastest, prettiest, most awesome airline that the world has ever seen!
I wish I had the time some of you have to post on here 24/7.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 83):
But here's the rub, hubs like the one Delta wants to build at LGA only work if Delta is considerably larger than the second largest airline at the hub. I think the threshold is something like 63% of the emplanements.

Then as I said, there is no way AA makes money in ORD or UA makes money in DEN.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: cageyjames
Posted 2013-02-15 08:53:31 and read 6942 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 107):
This begs the question what exactly did US give up in the slot swap when it retained a portfolio of slots which still allow it to run a full slate of peak flights to its non-small market, hubs?

Careful, you might be implying that US management is smarter than everyone thinks.

Disclaimer: I think US management is smarter than everyone thinks.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mpdpilot
Posted 2013-02-15 08:57:53 and read 6895 times.

There is a lot in this thread but I think someone hit the nail on the head with this:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 93):
With all due respect, CEO's are in their position of employment to mostly "act" and "anticipate" market changes and competitive responses...they don't just sit and wait.
Obviously, RA has not been caught off guard here.

What is DL's response to the merger? It has already started. Ever since CO joined Star alliance, the merger setup in this country has been pretty obvious. With that in mind. DL has been positioning itself for improvement since the merger and that is the only response needed.

Beefing up LAX

Beefing up JFK

SEA

These are all things that you could say are responses to the merger.

This thread has also talked about DL's apparent network problem. This sums up the discussion pretty well.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
If it was all so well and good with everything that was gained with the Northwest merger, why the push in New York?

By this logic, why do anything?

Just because DL is building up LAX and NYC and SEA, doesn't mean that MSP, DTW, ATL, and SLC are not great hubs for them. I personally see it as, if DL didn't have fortresses they would have to spend their time fighting in MSP, DTW, ATL, and SLC instead though, they can point their attention to new markets or areas where they are not the clear leader. Enter LAX, and JFK.

I bet if you asked Parker if he would give up CLT for a fight in ATL he would laugh. The fact that DL doesn't have to fight in its core markets is it's biggest advantage. It allows them to fight in other markets. Why DTW hasn't seen a lot of new routes, it doesn't need them. It makes money just the way it is. If they wanted to work at it, I am sure they could make more work. But why? Why not instead work at making other markets that aren't working work, such as LAX or JFK.

And all this talk about NRT is kind of weird too, I think. Where did Singapore Airlines route their LAX flight? NRT. I think a lot of people here underestimate NRT. Sure over flying NRT is ideal but there are still a lot of markets that work because of NRT. DL is adding flights overflying NRT from, what I think are, the right markets, SEA. I also think they should be adding them from LAX but that I am sure will happen in time. I think the only reason UA is stronger in the TPAC market is SFO.

And DTW-HKG is not telling of DL's TPAC offerings either, that wasn't going to be a super performer. DTW's connection is Japan. Now, SEA-HKG that is something that could work I think.

On a side note, I think SEA-SIN could also work as it is within a 77E's range, but that is more of a personal opinion than anything else.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-15 09:05:02 and read 6820 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
If it was all so well and good with everything that was gained with the Northwest merger, why the push in New York?

Delta has been making a "push" in New York since '91, from what I can remember.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 67):
If it was all so well and good with everything that was gained by the merger, why the push in LA?

Same in LAX. Off and on (and you all know about this) DL has been trying to build up LAX for many, many years.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: davescj
Posted 2013-02-15 09:05:27 and read 6807 times.

This is an interesting discussion for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the future of air travel in the US.

But, as the US/AA merger effects DL, particularly city wise, it is key to remember different airlines use their routes and cities differently.

For example, DL made the decision to make JFK/LGA a major focus (both O/D and hub for Europe, for example). US choose to make the focus DCA, as it matched what they did better and solidified a particular market for them. I don't see those realities changing.

What I think US/AA will mean to DL:

A need for a focus on domestic growth (organic grown in the West particularly). I don't think it means a merger with AS. Why? AS makes its money in part via to codeshares with AA. Could DL realistically support the various routes AS flies without those customers codeshared from AA? I tend to doubt it. Otherwise, DL would already fly the route itself.

I can see DL considering another merger. If not JetBlue (which as others have pointed out would raise issues), why not Frontier? Frontier has a decent route network in the West. While DL could change the hub to SLC (as opposed to DEN), it would not be impossible. Further, it would give DL some fast growth in the central west.

DL does need to grow in South America. As pointed out, ATL is the focus right now. It is true DL needs to find some growth. But why is it not possible to do that via codeshares and purchases? (Such as GOL in Brazil).

Ultimately - all DL or any airline can do is watch for opportunies and create them as possible.

Dave

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klwright69
Posted 2013-02-15 10:37:18 and read 6567 times.

I think AA 's weakness in Asia is a very, very big deal. We cant talk all night about domestic US flying , but that is not where the money is.

Okay, so AA is gaining some new European destinations like LIS and GLA. Really? Big deal (they are nice places, it's just an example). AA could have started them on their own at any time, and these are small markets. And Europe is in a slump. I wouldn't be playing up additional service to Europe all that much. Not all markets are created equal.

We can go round and round discussing all the fine details of legacy route networks.
I think this merger was inevitable after UA/CO. AA and US needed to pool their resources and form the critical mess to fight off irrelevancy. No, it doesn't solve all AA or US's problems.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: PIEAvantiP180
Posted 2013-02-15 10:51:55 and read 6504 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 83):
As of Dec 2012 (12 months ending), according to the PA...Delta 9.3m passengersAmerican 5.1mUS 3.3m

You have to remember that for 2012 US numbers are inflated due to that they were still flying about 120 more daily flight for about a half a year then they are today out of LGA. And for DL 9.3 mil is not accurate either since they have only been flying 100 more flights out of LGA for about half the year. 2013 should show the true numbers for each and I'm sure that gap between DL vs AA/US should be around 2.5-3.5 mil instead of 0.9 that it shows now.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-15 11:00:49 and read 6466 times.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 114):
I think AA 's weakness in Asia is a very, very big deal. We cant talk all night about domestic US flying , but that is not where the money is.

The money is in MNL and BKK? I'd contend that, given the partnership with JL, AA is not markedly behind DL. How do the two compare in nonstop US-Asia ASMs?

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-15 11:10:43 and read 6415 times.

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 111):
And all this talk about NRT is kind of weird too, I think. Where did Singapore Airlines route their LAX flight? NRT. I think a lot of people here underestimate NRT. Sure over flying NRT is ideal but there are still a lot of markets that work because of NRT. DL is adding flights overflying NRT from, what I think are, the right markets, SEA. I also think they should be adding them from LAX but that I am sure will happen in time. I think the only reason UA is stronger in the TPAC market is SFO.

Singapore Air has been flying to LAX via NRT since the late 1970's with 747-200, well before they had 747-300 or 747-400's.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-15 11:16:03 and read 6395 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 116):
I'd contend that, given the partnership with JL, AA is not markedly behind DL. How do the two compare in nonstop US-Asia ASMs?

According to the WSJ, ASKs for October 2012 were:

UA/CO: 5.04 billion
DL: 3.51 b
KE: 2.84 b
CX: 2.52 b
AC: 1.80 b
JL: 1.61 b
QF: 1.57 b
NH: 1.40 b
AA: 1.27 b
BR: 1.20 b

I can't link it, but search 'Korean Air, Delta Discuss Wider Links' if you want to read the article and see the graph these numbers are from.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: flyfree727
Posted 2013-02-15 11:22:34 and read 6346 times.

I think A.Net worries alot more about the AA/US merger than either DL or UA does.

Pick the airline you like and fly them.
Pick the airline you like and follow them.

Why the obsession with the others? Just like people on airlines facebook pages that swear they'll NEVER fly DL/ UA/AA AGAIN!, yet, they are on their FB site DAILY posting/commenting/following/suggesting.

Who cares?
Remember, Hobby, not obsession! Everyone has their favorite, like it or not.. Besides, we can't ALL be the same! How boring would that be...

Everyone, relax, and have a great day!


AA ORD

[Edited 2013-02-15 11:29:02]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-15 11:23:32 and read 6364 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 118):
According to the WSJ, ASKs for October 2012 were:

So AA+JL is about 2.8 billion ASKs, while DL is 3.5 billion ASKs. Not as huge a gap as people think, especially once you add in DFW-ICN, which should be 100,000 ASKs/month or so.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-15 11:33:46 and read 6313 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 120):
Not as huge a gap as people think

DL and KE firming up a true revenue-sharing JV, plus the Pacific gateway at SEA that DL has been building to overfly Japan to more destinations in Asia, could leave AA scrambling if they neglect Asia for too long.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-15 11:44:36 and read 6271 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 121):
DL and KE firming up a true revenue-sharing JV, plus the Pacific gateway at SEA that DL has been building to overfly Japan to more destinations in Asia, could leave AA scrambling if they neglect Asia for too long.

Agreed completely. But AA has been quietly growing Asia for a while.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-15 12:14:38 and read 6205 times.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 109):
Then as I said, there is no way AA makes money in ORD or UA makes money in DEN.

I wish I could find the analysis that was done of the AA vs UA hubs at ORD, which calculated the threshold of 63%. It really explains a lot. It also explains how a hub only becomes a money losing proposition when absent that 63% the putative hub airline still goes chasing a higher proportion of connecting passengers. Which is to say that AA and UA could very well still be making money in ORD and UA at DEN if they long ago right-sized their operations to appeal to a majority of the O&D. That's always been AA's emphasis at ORD; in the years since that analysis was done, it could very well have become United's as well.

Which brings us to Delta's LGA problem, the analysis I referenced above claimed that once the hub threshold is reached certain advantages accrue to the hub airline which compromises the ability of any secondary airlines to compete effectively in the market as a whole. Now, given the fragmentation of the market among the secondary airlines at LGA, DL with the slot swap might very well have been on its way to achieving a threshold, perhaps not the 63%, at which it might have started to accrue some of those network benefits. But with new AA closing the gap between the old AA and DL (after the slot swap), that might no longer happen and in fact it might force Delta to right size its operation at LGA just as United did in the face of a secondary airline which could compete just as effectively from ORD to all the top O&D city pairs.

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 111):
Just because DL is building up LAX and NYC and SEA, doesn't mean that MSP, DTW, ATL, and SLC are not great hubs for them. I personally see it as, if DL didn't have fortresses they would have to spend their time fighting in MSP, DTW, ATL, and SLC instead though, they can point their attention to new markets or areas where they are not the clear leader. Enter LAX, and JFK.

They may be great hubs, but they aren't going to help Delta with corporate contracts. Which is why you see Delta adding flights to NYC and BOS from LAX and buying a stake in Virgin Atlantic, which does not fly to MSP, DTW, or SLC, but does fly from LHR to NYC, Miami, and LAX.

Here's the other problem. While Delta was busy acquiring all those "great hubs," the other airlines have been making moves to solidify their positions in the big city markets and no longer have to fight very much to sustain themselves in those markets. So, while the ability of the other airlines to poach passengers from Delta's great hubs remains evident, the ability of Delta to enter markets such as LAX/ORD, LAX/DFW, and LAX/DCA is not as evident.

[Edited 2013-02-15 12:16:00]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-15 12:24:10 and read 6162 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 123):
So, while the ability of the other airlines to poach passengers from Delta's great hubs remains evident,

And, so.....where would THAT be?



Seems like DL is able to turn great profits, even if, in your mind, DL's hubs aren't all that "great".  

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-15 15:49:01 and read 5877 times.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 109):
Seriously, does everything have to be a competition?

That's generally how it works in business, yes.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 109):
now we have to compare AA/US to UA and DL?

Why not? People discuss and/or compare all kinds of stuff far more ridiculous and trivial than that all the time on this site. Comparing the relative strength of AA to Delta, United, etc. in particular regions, in certain markets, on certain routes, etc. seems - to me - to be a refreshingly relevant topic, well worth discussing.

Not sure why some Delta fans are so sensitive about the carrier being compared to others.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 109):
How abou this: AA is going to be the biggest, fastest, prettiest, most awesome airline that the world has ever seen!

  

It is rather comical to watch how defense some are getting, particularly given how - after the Delta-Northwest merger - we had to listen to essentially precisely the above over and over from certain Delta "fans."

Nobody is saying AA is going to be the "biggest, fastest, prettiest, most awesome airline." Reducing some of these arguments to such a meaningless red herring is ridiculous.

What some of us are saying - which I think is entirely legitimate to discuss - is that this combined carrier is going to be a far larger and far more formidable competitor than Delta (and United) have faced in a while at AA.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-15 16:02:34 and read 5836 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 124):
Seems like DL is able to turn great profits, even if, in your mind, DL's hubs aren't all that "great".

Same with US, in fact US' 2012 op margin was higher than DL, and it has a far more challenging network and merger. A good management team is just as important as a strong network, and can even overcompensate for the latter.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: cv880
Posted 2013-02-15 16:10:37 and read 5831 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 123):
So, while the ability of the other airlines to poach passengers from Delta's great hubs remains evident, the ability of Delta to enter markets such as LAX/ORD, LAX/DFW, and LAX/DCA is not as evident.

DL gave up on the ORD market to anywhere at the end of deregulation. Gave up ORD-Florida and never tried to encroach on UA/AA transcon territory until the 90's and never ORD to LAX/SFO. When DL pulled down DFW, it also abandoned LAX/SFO/Florida from that market as well. DL needs to connect some dots to increase corporate traffic. Corporate traffic is not going to be loyal to any carrier out of these cities if they have to connect via anywhere for domestic travel.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-15 16:58:04 and read 5691 times.

Quoting cv880 (Reply 127):
DL needs to connect some dots to increase corporate traffic. Corporate traffic is not going to be loyal to any carrier out of these cities if they have to connect via anywhere for domestic travel.

I think we've seen DL do exactly that in recent years. DL has connected ORD-LGA and SFO-LAX with frequent flights, and shored up their transcon offerings out of JFK. Adding other top business routes such as ORD-LAX isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: ual-fan
Posted 2013-02-15 16:58:21 and read 5682 times.

Delta has the best service by far so I doubt they all that worried. They just have to keep doing what they are doing now and they will come out on top. They provide the best in flight service hands down of any US carrier. IMHO there is no comparison to either AA or US.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-15 17:00:37 and read 5692 times.

Quoting ual-fan (Reply 129):

Delta has the best service by far so I doubt they all that worried. They just have to keep doing what they are doing now and they will come out on top. They provide the best in flight service hands down of any US carrier. IMHO there is no comparison to either AA or US.


That's your opinion. I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-15 17:13:16 and read 5631 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 80):

Further, the merged airline is 72% AMR shares and 28% US; and while Parker will be CEO, two-thirds of the board comes from AMR and its creditors. So, yeah, not exactly being kicked to the curb.

Um... Yes it IS exactly getting kicked to the curb.

New airline will have 12 board members:
5 - from the creditors committee (these are people AA owed money to - not management)
4 - from US
3 - from AA (And then Horton has to leave next year and there will only be two - compared to four from US).

New CEO Parker from US - New COO Kirby from US

This is about as kicked to the curb as you can get and a huge rebuff of the current management and their strategy.

As to how this relates to the subject at hand: The new management is much more formidable than the outgoing management and DL shouldn't underestimate that.

[Edited 2013-02-15 17:30:40]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-15 17:19:50 and read 5602 times.

Quoting klkla (Reply 131):
3 - from AA (And then Parker has to leave next year and there will only be two - compared to four from US).

I know you meant to write Horton.
I'd like to know who is staying on from PMAA.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-15 17:32:27 and read 5523 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 132):
I know you meant to write Horton

Thanks for catching that. Fixed.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-15 19:20:42 and read 5319 times.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 109):
prettiest

All the others, maybe...prettiest? NOT  

Quoting commavia (Reply 125):
Not sure why some Delta fans are so sensitive about the carrier being compared to others.

Not sure why you came up with a childish statement like that...then I saw your profile. Oh, that's why.

FYI, most (if not all) of the guys on the DL ramp have no idea how many planes the various airlines have, and really, couldn't care less. We're pretty proud of the way we stack up against the competition. We have confidence in our management team. We fly to almost anywhere we want to go. (I'd like to add EDI, CPT, and LIS). Right now, the size of the dollar amount of our profit sharing checks is what's important.     

Other than that, size queens, we're not. Compare away!

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: questions
Posted 2013-02-15 19:59:42 and read 5218 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 128):
I think we've seen DL do exactly that in recent years. DL has connected ORD-LGA and SFO-LAX with frequent flights, and shored up their transcon offerings out of JFK. Adding other top business routes such as ORD-LAX isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.

I realize the answer to my question involves fleet, but would DL be better off connecting top business points in the US or top business points US-Intl?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.

Could you be more specific? Thanks.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-02-15 20:15:56 and read 5159 times.

Overall this merger is good for delta and United one less competitor, one less to price match with, one less pool of loyal elites not flying your airline.....in the end its all good. People seem to think the airlines act with emotions its purely about profits. People are getting trolley emotional and totally unrealistic

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: flyabr
Posted 2013-02-15 20:21:07 and read 5141 times.

Why is it that "common knowledge" always suggests that Delta will be the third largest airline in the world after the AA/US merger?? According to Govt stats, Delta carries more people every month than the combined United/Continental. IMO, the number of en-planements is the true metric that determines airline size!  

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: questions
Posted 2013-02-15 20:24:38 and read 5126 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 136):
People are getting trolley emotional and totally unrealistic

"Trolley emotional" is what the former NW elites in First became when the former PMNW FAs could no longer use the trolley to serve drinks in the F cabin.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-02-15 20:38:11 and read 5073 times.

Auto spell check in action

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: strfyr51
Posted 2013-02-15 20:50:53 and read 5038 times.

IN Asia DL has the Tokyo hub, but the NRT hub is not what it used to be. 777 can go to all kinds of places in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Korea as AA is doing or soon will be nonstop from ORD, LAX, JFK and DFW. Even Delta overflies Japan with its own 777 from Detroit.

Well EXACTLY what kind of Hub IS NRT now that you mention it?? or does the FACT that AMR doesn't have one there
make it any Less important?
Explain your reasoning for your statement because it looks to ME like you made this up from whole sackcloth because I see No reason for your logic.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-15 20:53:54 and read 5029 times.

Quoting klkla (Reply 131):
The new management is much more formidable than the outgoing management and DL shouldn't underestimate that.

The "new" management is the same management US had when they tried a hostile takeover at DL during the BK and that was stopped. Since they are the same ones, I hardly see where they would suddenly become "formidable". However, I wouldn't worry about DL.........I'm sure they are very aware of who their competitors are.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
That's your opinion. I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.

Considering your bias towards AA, I wouldn't think your experience of DL's service has much credibility.
 
Quoting commavia (Reply 125):
Quoting delta2ual (Reply 109):
How abou this: AA is going to be the biggest, fastest, prettiest, most awesome airline that the world has ever seen!



It is rather comical to watch how defense some are getting, particularly given how - after the Delta-Northwest merger - we had to listen to essentially precisely the above over and over from certain Delta "fans."

The thing is all the AA/UA/CO/US/WN fanboys were already describing their favorite airlines, this way, BEFORD DL's merger. so we DL fanboys are hardly the only ones that do it.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: delimit
Posted 2013-02-15 20:57:46 and read 5016 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 125):
Not sure why some Delta fans are so sensitive about the carrier being compared to others.

Be fair. The phenomenon is hardly unique to Delta.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-15 21:18:04 and read 4964 times.

Quoting klkla (Reply 131):

This is about as kicked to the curb as you can get and a huge rebuff of the current management and their strategy.

And we all know how rational your thoughts on the matter are considering in your previous thread where you thought Horton should have been fired because the wrong meal was catered on to the inaugural 773 service for AA  
Quoting questions (Reply 135):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.

Could you be more specific? Thanks.

I agree somewhat with MAH4546. I believe DL's economy product is far better than AA and that is a place where AA has seriously deteriorated in comparison with their competition. But where AA has remained top-notch in my opinion is in First and Business Class. Domestically, AA far outdoes their peers in their soft product and catering (a cold sandwich and chips on a 3-4 hour domestic flight...really DL? But hey, that's much better than the heaping helping of nothing US offers in First class on flights up 3 hours in length). AA also excels in the many exclusive services and benefits they offer to their premium clients which have allowed them to retain strong corporate presences in markets where they may not be as big as they used to (NYC for example).

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-15 21:23:42 and read 4970 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 141):
The thing is all the AA/UA/CO/US/WN fanboys were already describing their favorite airlines, this way, BEFORD DL's merger. so we DL fanboys are hardly the only ones that do it.
Quoting delimit (Reply 142):
Be fair. The phenomenon is hardly unique to Delta.

No arguments. We all have our own biases and bring them into our conversations here. That's fine - I think all of us accept that.

What I just don't get is people seemingly getting mad - not because I or someone else is badmouthing their preferred carrier, but by strangely somehow seeming to question the need to even discuss their favorite carrier at all.

Two of Delta's largest competitors have just announced a merger that will create an ever larger competitor. That new competitor is going to be - by some measures - the world's largest airline with a dense and extensive network that heavily overlaps Delta's. People can make sarcastic comments, call me childish, make fun of or otherwise minimize this entire topic, etc. but to me, the reason to discuss the impact of this merger on Delta, and yes, have reasoned, informed discussion comparing Delta and this new airline, seems self-evident.

And again - all of this is particularly ironic for me, given the astounding amount of Delta triumphalism and "discussion" that we were all treated to back when Delta and Northwest merged.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 143):
I believe DL's economy product is far better than AA and that is a place where AA has seriously deteriorated in comparison with their competition. But where AA has remained top-notch in my opinion is in First and Business Class.

  

Delta most definitely has a far superior coach product to AA - especially longhaul. Thankfully, the hundreds of new jets AA will be taking delivery of in the next few years should elevate that experience - particularly on the domestic flights with new PTVs. The 10-abreast 777 configuration is awful, though.

I totally agree, however, that AA really has done a very good job of keeping up the premium service. Within the domestic U.S., even on midcons, I still find myself amazed sometimes by what AA serves for a meal in First on flights (even under 2 hours from Chicago to the northeast). And on longhaul, AA's new First looks incredible. I recently experienced the new First soft product, and I have to say it was truly excellent, and exceptionally well-delivered.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 143):
AA also excels in the many exclusive services and benefits they offer to their premium clients which have allowed them to retain strong corporate presences in markets where they may not be as big as they used to (NYC for example).

  

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-15 22:09:19 and read 4867 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 144):
And again - all of this is particularly ironic for me, given the astounding amount of Delta triumphalism and "discussion" that we were all treated to back when Delta and Northwest merged.

And I'll repeat, AGAIN, what I said. This was being done by fanboys of every other carrier, BEFORE, the DL/NW merger, therefore, whether the DL fanboys were doing it during the merger is not relevant. DL's fanboys were hardly alone in this. You can't single them out when you (and others) were doing the same thing, even without the benefit of a merger to praise (or not).

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: questions
Posted 2013-02-15 22:25:33 and read 4823 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 143):
AA also excels in the many exclusive services and benefits they offer to their premium clients which have allowed them to retain strong corporate presences in markets where they may not be as big as they used to (NYC for example).

What are some examples of the "many exclusive services and benefits?" Who gets these? Does DL have anything that comes close? Is DL even considered seriously by "premium clients"?

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-02-15 23:26:04 and read 4745 times.

Quoting questions (Reply 146):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 143):
AA also excels in the many exclusive services and benefits they offer to their premium clients which have allowed them to retain strong corporate presences in markets where they may not be as big as they used to (NYC for example).

What are some examples of the "many exclusive services and benefits?" Who gets these? Does DL have anything that comes close? Is DL even considered seriously by "premium clients"?

Many of them are the obvious numerated benefits at the elite level of the AAdvantage program while some are more tailored and exclusive to certain clientele. Here's an article about some of the lesser known services AA offers to it's most elite customers: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...ods-secret-spots-inside-lax-233594

UA and VX are discussed as well, but it gives a pretty good description of what AA offers and is indicative of the institutional adeptness they still maintain for catering to those people. I believe DL does offer a concierge to their top SkyMiles members, not sure how it compares to AA. DL doesn't offer a secondary security checkpoint however and I don't believe it's their policy to maintain unoccupied seats next to high-value customers. From a first-person perspective as well, AA has a sub-system or sub-program (Helix I believe it's called?) which tracks and maintains information on high-value customers and ranks them on a 4 or 5 star scale. For example, when one of these customers checks in at the self-serve kiosks, their name and status appears on the computer screens of the agent so they can personally greet them and make reservation or seating adjustments according to the high-value customer's preferences. You can kind of see how it works in the movie "Up in the Air" if you've ever seen it.

DL has been aggressively investing in their product so I'm sure some high-value customers are starting to take notice, which is why it's a good thing AA has finally stopped resting on their laurels and are continuing to work to maintain their edge with high-value customers.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-15 23:45:00 and read 4718 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 141):
The "new" management is the same management US had when they tried a hostile takeover at DL during the BK and that was stopped. Since they are the same ones, I hardly see where they would suddenly become "formidable"

Good point... But what I meant is that these are basically the guys from America West that managed to get control of US Airways in bankruptcy... and then get control of a bigger company American Airlines in bankruptcy, as well. These guys are shrewd and motivated. Delta has a strong management team as evidenced by the fact that they are the most profitable US carrier. All I was saying is that they shouldn't underestimate Parker/Kirby & Company.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 143):
And we all know how rational your thoughts on the matter are considering in your previous thread where you thought Horton should have been fired because the wrong meal was catered on to the inaugural 773 service for AA

Good try... The point I was trying to make in that post was that if a CEO couldn't even manage to motivate his employees on an important inaugural flight of the first new aircraft type AA has introduced in over ten years to get basic service elements right how is he supposed to lead them into the future. Evidently the creditors agreed that he wasn't the right person and well... uh... buh bye Horton. He got the boot as he should have! He's probably a very nice man but clearly not the man to lead AA into the future.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: B377
Posted 2013-02-16 00:44:57 and read 4643 times.

Quoting klkla (Reply 148):
Evidently the creditors agreed that he wasn't the right person and well... uh... buh bye Horton. He got the boot as he should have! He's probably a very nice man but clearly not the man to lead AA into the future.

To the contrary....The creditors realized that this man has outstanding talents and has been very successful in bringing AA through the bankruptcy. Due to his efforts they will be repaid close to 100% if not more and even the existing share holders of AA will get value.

He did realize that the "unions" were not going to accept him and the current management team and graciously stepped aside for the benefit of the new AA.

As you have seen in the press since the merger announcement, AA's creditors made a very generous offer for his separation package. Close to $20m would never have been offered, if indeed he was a failure.....

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Pu
Posted 2013-02-16 03:26:01 and read 4523 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 71):

Funny how the only people convinced that AA's service is going to US levels are Delta fanboys.

Funny how the non-airline-employee fanboys of AA are living in yesteryear where market share and filling in holes on a map somehow supply the magical missing piece of the long-missing profits at AA. "#1 at xxx", the type of meals served in F, IFE, concierege and alliances doesn't mean anything financially. Whoever above praised controlling non-sexy hubs (Continental style) is among the few rational thinkers I've seen on this thread who isn't simply repeating AA press releases.

DL made a profit of $1.2 billion last year and will make $1.5 - 2.0 billion in 2013. Remind us again how that compares to the combined profits (losses) at AA/US or the tepid financial performance at UAL.

Quoting mayor (Reply 141):
Considering your bias towards AA

Bias is kind of a polite, but still rational choice. The 3-4 AA apologists who appear everywhere AA is mentioned to tell us their beleifs about AA copied straight from AA press releases are well beyond biased. Not that they work now or ever did work for an airline, but it seems they stopped getting memos after 2008. Market share is dead. Profitability, revenue premiums & ancillary income streams are everything.

After AA fires ~20% of its workforce and axes all that unsustainable flying from PHX ( & up and down the east coast that doesn't work with their new higher costs)....it might reach Delta's current level of profitability in 3 or 4 years, when Delta will have made an acquisition or at minimum acheived the strongest balance sheet in the industry.




Pu

[Edited 2013-02-16 03:28:57]

[Edited 2013-02-16 03:44:35]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-16 05:02:00 and read 4406 times.

Quoting Pu (Reply 150):
living in yesteryear where market share and filling in holes on a map somehow supply the magical missing piece of the long-missing profits at AA.

I agree with you on sheer market share, but I don't know why "filling in holes on a map" is "living in yesteryear." Comparing the relative strength of carriers based on the scope and breadth of their network seems quite reasonable - indeed, it is on precisely that basis that Delta and United have largely marketed themselves, both to customers and Wall St, and it is on precisely that basis that many believe this AA-USAirways merger will form a more formidable competitor.

Take a look at Delta's initial press releases and presentations on the Northwest merger, and on virtually every single Investors Day and analyst conference presentation since - needless to say, there are almost always quite a few references to market share and/or network breadth ("filling in holes on a map").

Besides, nobody says this is the "magical missing piece" of restoring AA to profitability. But it's certainly one of the two big ones, with the other being finally having competitive union contracts.

Quoting Pu (Reply 150):
the type of meals served in F, IFE, concierege and alliances doesn't mean anything financially

Premium amenities and alliances "don't mean anything financially?" Hmmm. Don't think so. One would think all three airlines - including Delta - are investing heavily in improving premium amenities because such amenities do drive revenue and positively affect financials. And I think the enormous positive financial impact of alliances - particularly the revenue-sharing joint ventures - are fairly self-evident and speak for themselves.

Quoting Pu (Reply 150):
Whoever above praised controlling non-sexy hubs (Continental style) is among the few rational thinkers I've seen on this thread who isn't simply repeating AA press releases.

I agree - controlling "non-sexy" hubs is a viable strategy, but I think so is have hubs in huge metro areas and international gateways.

United's hubs are almost all in pretty much the prime global or regional centers in a given region/market (the only exception being Cleveland) - and in the long run, I expect that will serve United well. Delta is a mix - they have hubs/large concentrations in some global/regional centers (New York, Atlanta, Los Angeles) and others in still-large, but less-prime, markets (Minneapolis, Detroit, Salt Lake City). AA, too, will now be a bit of hybrid - some cornerstones in prime global/regional centers (Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York) and less-prime, but still large and strong, markets (Charlotte, Philadelphia).

Personally, I think this arrangement should serve AA well just as it has Delta. They can still benefit from capturing a large share of the local market in some of the nation's largest and richest (if also most competitive) markets, but then they can also handily dominate several more hubs that may just be slightly smaller than a nearby dominant global/regional market, but are still great hubs.

Quoting Pu (Reply 150):
DL made a profit of $1.2 billion last year and will make $1.5 - 2.0 billion in 2013. Remind us again how that compares to the combined profits (losses) at AA/US or the tepid financial performance at UAL.

Let's see where things stand in a few years. A lot can change (just look at how much things have changed in the last five).

Delta's people - including its management - have done an incredible job building a supremely impressive company: great network, very profitable. But, in fairness, Delta has also been helped by the fact that their two largest competitors have been attempting to overcome very complex challenges for several years. United is now approaching year three of its integration with Continental, and AA obviously has been attempting to restructure (first outside bankruptcy, then in it).

In a few years time, it is likely that a more stable airline industry will see three competitors - all of roughly equal size - having sorted out merger integration issues and all competing based on network and product/service offering. Competing on that basis, it is likely to be a relatively even fight. When that day comes, Delta may not necessarily be outperforming its peers by such a wide margin, if at all.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: seatback
Posted 2013-02-16 05:59:07 and read 4368 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 94):
. I realize DL would love control over the feed provided to their growing international operation at SEA, but DL's higher costs and the loss of the substantial incremental feed AA provides to the AS network would be a major economic challenge for the AS network as operated by DL.
Quoting commavia (Reply 144):
I totally agree, however, that AA really has done a very good job of keeping up the premium service. Within the domestic U.S., even on midcons, I still find myself amazed sometimes by what AA serves for a meal in First on flights (even under 2 hours from Chicago to the northeast). And on longhaul, AA's new First looks incredible. I recently experienced the new First soft product, and I have to say it was truly excellent, and exceptionally well-delivered.

Domestically speaking, nobody does a coach service better than DL, and nobody does a first class service worse than Delta.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Pu
Posted 2013-02-16 06:33:28 and read 4271 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 151):
I agree with you on sheer market share, but I don't know why "filling in holes on a map" is "living in yesteryear."

Filling in holes on the map is what happens when you have undergraduate business students look at the AA route map and financial performance while asking them to explain Delta's profits. It is superficial and used in press releases because the simple minded understand it, kind of like AA saying right now that all hubs will stay a hub.

DL is weaker to South America, United has no southeast hub...blah blah blah. Cost per seat mile, revenue per seat mile is it, and only it. WN is weak all over the place on the map yet is reliably profitable. To borrow from AA's cornerstorne stragegy documents, it isn't the quantity of routes and passengers that matter, its the quality.IF you are pursuing a premium passenger model, that is

...but if Doug Parker turns AA into a jumbo-sized US with lower service levels, then yes quantity is more important. I think he could very well make this choice. It's proven to work. AA's premium service model is not.

I don't believe adding US to AA's routes increases the AA revenue per seat mile, in fact I think it weakens it. If US brought in a prized premium market or service, then yes filling in holes on a map and first class meals would matter and drive a revenue premiium, but US just brings a lot of low fare fliers in markets AA never cared much about before....a stand alone AA is much more of a threat to DL and UA then this US merger, which will give UA and DL yet another 2-3 years to make gains while AA goes through layoffs, seniority integrations, consolidations etc...

Quoting commavia (Reply 151):
Premium amenities and alliances "don't mean anything financially?" Hmmm. Don't think so.

There is no DIRECT correlation. If anything, the data suggest the correlation is inverted.

Everyone seems to agree Delta has the worst F class service and AA has the best, at least domestically. Might as well throw in US's premium products in this consideration as well. The profits, and lack thereof, speak for themselves....there seems to be an inverse relationship between quality of F class and financial results.



Pu

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-16 07:32:36 and read 4144 times.

This thread is dumb.

You want to know what DL's response to AA/US will be? I wager it will be nothing at all. The merger removes a competitor from the market and less competitors means higher fares for everyone. What do they stand to gain by blocking or hindering it?

As for network response, why do they really need to do anything? The only markets they compete are NYC and LA and both have very limited room to grow in both. What could they really do successfully to hinder the other in regards to the merger?

The real focus should on the rationalization of the combined US/AA network. As it is, the US hubs are too large to be profitable in the combined network (speaking primarily of PHX and to a much lesser degree CLT). It's not like DL has some desire to expand in PHX, PHL, DCA, or CLT so they can't really do anything. I know they would love MIA, but it isn't up for grabs and they can try their hand there anytime. AA won't be forced to give anything there. The only concessions might be a few LGA slots, but even then that's uncertain.

In the end DL is going to do its thing and US/AA are going to do theirs.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-02-16 08:21:30 and read 4041 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
That's your opinion. I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.




Just what one would expect from a AA fan boy.Too bad for AA that the rest of the traveling public does not feel that way

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-16 08:35:02 and read 3980 times.

Quoting B377 (Reply 149):
He did realize that the "unions" were not going to accept him and the current management team and graciously stepped aside for the benefit of the new AA.

That's a great spin but by all accounts he fought hard to keep the CEO title and due to a lack of faith by the creditors was forced to turn the company over to US management. This is an epic failure on the part of AA management. When Delta filed for BK they didn't lose control of their company. When United filed for BK they didn't lose control of their company. Only the management of two airlines have lost control of their company during the BK process in recent history: The original USAir and now American Airlines.

Quoting seatback (Reply 152):
Domestically speaking, nobody does a coach service better than DL, and nobody does a first class service worse than Delta.

That's subjective. I and many others on here have found DL's premium cabins to be superior to AA or UA in many ways.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-16 08:40:10 and read 3957 times.

Quoting Pu (Reply 150):
DL made a profit of $1.2 billion last year and will make $1.5 - 2.0 billion in 2013. Remind us again how that compares to the combined profits (losses) at AA/US

US had a better op margin than DL in 2012

Quoting klkla (Reply 156):
That's a great spin but by all accounts he fought hard to keep the CEO title and due to a lack of faith by the creditors was forced to turn the company over to US management. This is an epic failure on the part of AA management. When Delta filed for BK they didn't lose control of their company. When United filed for BK they didn't lose control of their company.

   It's really extraordinary. No one was in control of AA, not AA management, not labor, not US. I'm confident that AA now has the best management team in the industry. I'm also confident that labor's irrational conviction that the grass is greener on the other side will come back to haunt them.

Quoting klkla (Reply 156):
I and many others on here have found DL's premium cabins to be superior to AA or UA in many ways.

No one has ever said anything nice about AA/US/legacy UA. But we'll all be holding hands reminiscing how great they never were in no time 

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: panamair
Posted 2013-02-16 08:55:44 and read 3921 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 157):
US had a better op margin than DL in 2012

Depends on whether you include restructuring/special items.  

GAAP operating margin:

DL: 5.9%
US: 6.2%

Operating margin excluding restructuring/special items:

DL: 7.2%
US: 6.4%

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-16 09:01:08 and read 3901 times.

Quoting panamair (Reply 158):
Depends on whether you include restructuring/special items.

Either way, it's nothing short of miraculous considering where HP/US were just a few years ago.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-16 09:07:31 and read 3897 times.

Quoting Pu (Reply 153):
I think he could very well make this choice. It's proven to work. AA's premium service model is not.

What you are missing is three words: "in the network." US service is proven to work in the US network, which is quite a lot different from the AA network (no service to Asia, limited service to South America, many shorter stage lengths, etc.). Obviously, FR and EK do not have the same service standards, and yet both make money.

Post-merger AA and DL will have pretty similar networks in a macro sense. You apparently believe that DL is well-managed, and I agree. DL has concluded that spending money on improving premium service is a profit-maximizing strategy. Why would AA conclude differently?

Quoting Pu (Reply 153):
I don't believe adding US to AA's routes increases the AA revenue per seat mile, in fact I think it weakens it.

The synergies--just like in DL/NW and UA/CO--come from the combined network. AA doesn't have to lose the SAV-ORD passenger because that passenger can't get to BOS on AA anymore.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2013-02-16 09:48:41 and read 3814 times.

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 119):
I think A.Net worries alot more about the AA/US merger than either DL or UA does.

Not only that, my friends at DL and UA who are privy to information would never share it with anyone, let alone on this board; which is why I know nobody on here has any hard facts about individual hub performance.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
That's your opinion. I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.

That's your opinion. See, we can do this all day.

Quoting commavia (Reply 144):
What I just don't get is people seemingly getting mad - not because I or someone else is badmouthing their preferred carrier, but by strangely somehow seeming to question the need to even discuss their favorite carrier at all.

Pot, meet kettle. There is a big difference between liking a carrier and disliking every other carrier. I "like" DL and UA in that I have worked for both and still have many friends (and my partner) who work for those carriers. The thing is, I can talk all day about these carriers (and I do on threads about them) without saying something negative about AAnother carrier. I purposefully avoid AA threads because I can bring nothing to that discussion, other than to say I fly them a lot since I live in Chicago. What I will never understand is why, on every thread about DL (or UA, to a lesser extent) AA fanboys need to chest-thump about something that has nothing to do with them. (I know this thread specifically mentions AA, but just look at how many threads are not about AA yet they end up being about AA). You yourself said that the only area that AA lacks is Asia and that they will close that gap in a few years. So AA will have no deficits, hence the "biggest and best" comment. It's like the Airbus vs. Boeing threads; they just get tiring.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 157):
US had a better op margin than DL in 2012

Who cares. Once their costs go up to AA levels (even with BK) that margin will disappear rather quickly.
The answer to this thread is simple: DL will do nothing with AA/US merging. First of all, it will possibly be YEARS since they are truly merged and enjoying their "synergies" to the fullest. Second of all, as I have said before, I think all 3 legacies can peacefully coexist. There is still a large air travel market in the USA and with only 4 major carriers (including WN) there is no reason why they can't all be profitable.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-16 09:52:25 and read 3798 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 154):
As for network response, why do they really need to do anything? The only markets they compete are NYC and LA and both have very limited room to grow in both. What could they really do successfully to hinder the other in regards to the merger?

Point well taken. Forget DL...where is the thread asking how UA will respond to the merger, in light of losing a huge codeshare passenger funnel and a huge chunk of Star network in the Southeast? I don't see a likelihood of many FF bolting AA because their network is suddenly expanding, and running to UA where the domestic options are suddenly more limited.

DL will be just fine.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-16 09:54:15 and read 3779 times.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 161):
Who cares. Once their costs go up to AA levels (even with BK) that margin will disappear rather quickly.

His point--which isn't really arguable--is that Doug Parker knows how to make money with the hand he's dealt.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 161):
First of all, it will possibly be YEARS since they are truly merged and enjoying their "synergies" to the fullest.

That is true, but you have to remember that AA's costs have already come down quite a bit because of the changes they have made in b/k. So for the areas where "pmAA" is the competitor (New York, L.A., the upper midwest), the change is already there.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-16 09:58:38 and read 3765 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 163):
His point--which isn't really arguable--is that Doug Parker knows how to make money with the hand he's dealt.

Probably every bit as much Kirby as Parker. PMHP got themselves a winner by cherrypicking Kirby from PMUS...wonder if PMUS would have been in as such bad shape if Kirby had been running he show over there pre-merger.

I also wonder who from the upper ranks at AA will be sticking around to help the new management. I have to think there would be some very qualified people who are experienced in the international side of the operation...

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-16 11:43:47 and read 3581 times.

Quoting Pu (Reply 153):
Filling in holes on the map is what happens when you have undergraduate business students look at the AA route map and financial performance while asking them to explain Delta's profits.

In a network business, the attractiveness of the network generally increases as the number of nodes connected to it increase. That's certainly the assumption used in the airline industry, most definitely including at Delta - where they take every opportunity in virtually every investor presentation to promote (for good reason) the strength of their network. I don't think it's all that unreasonable to suggest that the more places you fly to, the more likely you are to not only capture traffic that is going to or coming from that market, but also for customers who want to go to that market, and others, with one airline.

AA is not going to be instantly profitable by virtue of the fact that now it has 21% market share at LAX instead of 18%. Obviously. But the fact that AA can now be more competitive in landing a corporate account that needs a broad schedule out of both LAX and, say, CLT, as an example, could lead to improved profits in the future. Is AA's larger network or its dramatically large scope in the eastern U.S guarantee profitability? Absolutely not. In fact, I actually share some of your skepticism of just how AA is going to be able to translate some of these "synergies" into reality, especially given higher costs. But we shall see.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 161):
The thing is, I can talk all day about these carriers (and I do on threads about them) without saying something negative about AAnother carrier.

I may have missed it, but I don't remember reading anything in this thread that is negative, unless merely suggesting Delta may face a stronger, more competitive carrier is now considered going "negative."

  

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 161):
What I will never understand is why, on every thread about DL (or UA, to a lesser extent) AA fanboys need to chest-thump about something that has nothing to do with them.

It's a 2-way street.

Different airlines have different fans, and we all come to these discussions with our own biases. We have to listen to the same triumphalism about Delta, and other airlines, from time to time. And as some who have been here a while might remember, we were once treated to it on an almost daily basis. A few years ago it was thread after thread after the Delta-Northwest merger discussing various aspects of how AA (and United) stacked up compared to Delta, how Delta's network was so much larger and stronger, how AA would "survive" up against bigger/stronger Delta, etc.

And yet now, some seem offended not even at reasoned debates about how different competiors may be relatively stronger here or there, how each airline will compete with the other, how the landscape is or isn't changing, etc. No, some seem offended at the mere suggestion that we even discuss Delta. Thus, again, why I just have to sit back and chuckle at the feigned intrigue of "does everything have to be a competition?" Everything seems to be a competition whenever it's good news for any other airline, including Delta. Welcome to A.net.

Nobody is suggesting that Delta is going to go out of business, that AA is going to dominate Delta, that AA is going to rule the industry. Nobody is suggesting that. But Delta is now going to face a different environment than they did before, if for no other reason than that they now have 3 other huge competitors rather than 4, and that might well be worth discussing. There is, after all, a similar discussion ongoing about the competitive impact on United, and nobody seems to be so outraged at the suggestion that United might also see an impact.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-16 12:57:50 and read 3441 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 165):
Different airlines have different fans, and we all come to these discussions with our own biases. We have to listen to the same triumphalism about Delta, and other airlines, from time to time. And as some who have been here a while might remember, we were once treated to it on an almost daily basis. A few years ago it was thread after thread after the Delta-Northwest merger discussing various aspects of how AA (and United) stacked up compared to Delta, how Delta's network was so much larger and stronger, how AA would "survive" up against bigger/stronger Delta, etc.

Which you have repeated on this thread, ad nauseum.......so, let me repeat, again (ad nauseum) that UA/CO/AA/US fanboys were doing their own "chest thumping" long before DL's bankruptcy OR merger.


I don't think DL is particularly worried about US/AA other than they ARE a competitor. I sincerely doubt if they're running around the GO at this time, yelling "the sky is falling" or some such. They will be "aware" of their presence, because to do so can be almost disastrous, which DL found out when WN started entering into some of DL's territories in the 90s and DL mostly ignored their presence.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-16 13:44:40 and read 3372 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 163):

His point--which isn't really arguable--is that Doug Parker knows how to make money with the hand he's dealt.

  

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 161):

Who cares. Once their costs go up to AA levels (even with BK) that margin will disappear rather quickly.

You're assuming nothing changes, but the network will grow and change as the environment and cost structure change. If Parker & Co. can run one of the most profitable network carriers out there on a very difficult network with kamikaze sociopath labor, imagine what he can do with AA+US.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-16 15:14:37 and read 3239 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):
imagine what he can do with AA+US.

With even MORE "kamikaze, sociopath labor", no doubt............  




What amazes me most about this thread, is that it seems to have been created, solely, to show DL's bad points and to point out to us how their recent financial performance was achieved ONLY because of its competitors being in BK and that DL, more than likely couldn't achieve what they have unless ALL the planets are lined up, just so. It couldn't possibly be because they've done a terrific job running an airline.

This DL fanboy sez.......considering the financial difficulties that DL has been in, all the way back, even before 9/11, I think they've done a great job bringing the company back.

Having said all that, I will say, AGAIN, that I doubt that DL is terribly afraid of what is going on, but they will be aware of what is going on. DL will continue with their plans, tweaking them here and there and raking in the cash.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-16 15:28:37 and read 3178 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 168):
What amazes me most about this thread, is that it seems to have been created, solely, to show DL's bad points and to point out to us how their recent financial performance was achieved ONLY because of its competitors being in BK and that DL, more than likely couldn't achieve what they have unless ALL the planets are lined up, just so. It couldn't possibly be because they've done a terrific job running an airline.

Why anyone needs to make the effort to defend DL is a curiosity. Let the AA fanboys have their day. What is the new AA, after all? It's an airline which ended up in bankruptcy after all of us kept hearing over the years about how 'superior', 'massive' and 'robust' it was, only to have to be rescued by arguably the most hated airline in the United States. Some accomplishment, really.

I don't wish anything bad for them, but let's see how they do—there's absolutely no assurances going forward that Parker will be able to make the labor situation any less toxic, which was a huge portion of AA's problems, besides being too meek to act on many issues. That left the airline ever shrinking without a solid solution to their problems going forward.

We'll see what Parker can do with it. I'm sure no one wishes him bad luck with the challenge. Hopefully it will rise to become a formidable competitor.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-16 15:36:18 and read 3160 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 169):
Why anyone needs to make the effort to defend DL is a curiosity.

Sorry, it's in my DNA.  

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-16 15:41:05 and read 3155 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 168):
With even MORE "kamikaze, sociopath labor", no doubt............

Given APA it's almost an absolute certainty, but they've all shown repeatedly their willingness to set themselves on fire rather than negotiate reasonably. It's worked out great for US so it could be a good thing.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-16 15:51:36 and read 3130 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 171):
It's worked out great for US so it could be a good thing.

Somehow, it has magically worked for US, despite the problems. Think how well they'd have done if the employees were happy. Despite what has been said on here, this is where I think that Parker is NOT genius. Instead of getting the pilots together and settling things, he seems to have just swept what was going on, under the rug, hoping that it wouldn't rear its ugly head, again.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-16 16:17:04 and read 3077 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 172):

Somehow, it has magically worked for US, despite the problems. Think how well they'd have done if the employees were happy

I don't think it's magical at all, and I don't think that group would ever be happy, nor would there be any benefit from it beyond being able to flow aircraft and crews a little better. It was a totally internal union issue, and Parker's hands were literally tied. Even if they weren't I don't think he would have touched it with a ten foot pole--plus it had the added benefit of reduced crew costs from USAPA's self induced crisis.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-16 16:35:47 and read 3029 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 173):
I don't think it's magical at all, and I don't think that group would ever be happy, nor would there be any benefit from it beyond being able to flow aircraft and crews a little better. It was a totally internal union issue, and Parker's hands were literally tied. Even if they weren't I don't think he would have touched it with a ten foot pole--plus it had the added benefit of reduced crew costs from USAPA's self induced crisis.

Just think.....an entirely new managerial strategy..........don't bother to solve the problem, just ignore it.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: cv880
Posted 2013-02-16 16:45:04 and read 3012 times.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 161):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
That's your opinion. I have found DL's service to be severely lacking compared to AA and UA, but obviously far ahead of US.

That's your opinion. See, we can do this all day.

What, comparing F to F class? What about AA's inferior J class with portable video players(767's) and 2x3x2 J class seats on the 777's? At least the US A330's are better than AA excluding the one lone 773(with 10 abreast Y seating).

[Edited 2013-02-16 17:15:03]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-16 17:26:46 and read 2929 times.

Quoting mayor (Reply 174):
Just think.....an entirely new managerial strategy..........don't bother to solve the problem, just ignore it.

What could he have done? I think he was smart to fix the things that could be fixed, and work around the pilot groups, who had no interest in a solution, and whose insane internal theatrics really didn't affect the operation, once they got their first injunction 

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-02-16 18:13:17 and read 2890 times.

Quoting cv880 (Reply 175):
What about AA's inferior J class with portable video players(767's) and 2x3x2 J class seats on the 777's?

This is a silly argument. Delta's old 763 J product is just as awful, maybe even worse. Both carriers are (rightly) making changes.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-16 20:11:31 and read 2741 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 169):
What is the new AA, after all? It's an airline which ended up in bankruptcy after all of us kept hearing over the years about how 'superior', 'massive' and 'robust' it was, only to have to be rescued by arguably the most hated airline in the United States. Some accomplishment, really.

Funny, that is what the Delta fanboys kept telling us about Delta before Leo Mullin ran out of borrowed money and had to declare bankruptcy. (Back then if you questioned Delta's concentration in Florida leisure markets, the Delta fanboys would argue that you knew nothing about the airline industry. LOL.)

As to being rescued by US, here's the irony. There was at time before 9/11 when everyone wanted to acquire US, including Bob Crandall at AA. What Bob new back then, which seemed to be forgotten after 9/11, is that the airline that commands most of the important domestic traffic flows, specifically the East, wins.

For some reason, after 9/11, the legacies forgot that principle as they began chasing more international ASM's, which they thought were immune from LCC competition. The thought was that they had sufficient domestic traffic flows through their regional networks and codeshares and that it was time to Pan Am-ize themselves.

But the fundamentals never changed and as the merger of US and AA makes clear once again perhaps US wasn't as worthless as it seemed after 9/11. That becomes clear when you stop to consider just how many important domestic markets AA will now command as a result of the merger. These are markets where there is no longer any opportunity for organic growth. If that had been the case all along, US would have ceased to exist long ago as the other airlines Pan Am-ized themselves.

I hope Bob is somewhere smiling at the thought that after all these years a former employee of AA was able to accomplish something he could never do while he was there. We are about to see just how right Bob was.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-16 20:43:28 and read 2692 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 178):
What Bob new back then, which seemed to be forgotten after 9/11, is that the airline that commands most of the important domestic traffic flows, specifically the East, wins.

You'll find little argument against that point, I believe, and gives rise to two further points in discussions about the merger:

1) These traffic flows explain part of the reason why US was able to survive all of this time with a less than appealing onboard product in comparison to its competitors, even while it cut FF benefits and was challenged by WN at various points; and

2) Why we'll see the PHX hub reduced to basically what it can survive on in terms of O&D in the future. AA has historically never had any great love for the west coast outside of LAX, ancillary transcons, and the traffic it could funnel through its hubs. The fleet circulating through PHX can be utilized far better by supporting the flow of east-west and intra-eastern region traffic. Keep the least-expensive and most efficient models, then ditch the rest. AA can continue to cozy up to AS for the west, while DL continues to set up its own western network of flying to support its emerging and existing hubs in the far west at LAX, SEA, and SLC.

[Edited 2013-02-16 20:54:45]

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: mayor
Posted 2013-02-16 20:47:36 and read 2690 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 178):
Funny, that is what the Delta fanboys kept telling us about Delta before Leo Mullin ran out of borrowed money and had to declare bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy was not declared until after Leo was gone........Grinstein declared bankruptcy. Just so you know.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 178):
(Back then if you questioned Delta's concentration in Florida leisure markets, the Delta fanboys would argue that you knew nothing about the airline industry. LOL.)

Back then, Florida markets WERE still part of DL's core market. The problem was, WN started to encroach on those routes and cities and Ron Allen didn't exactly ignore them. He did try to get costs down close to WN and almost succeeded in that. His goal was 7.5 cents per ASM, I believe.


DL made mistakes, I won't deny it, but it seems like the usual suspects that love to bash DL are using threads such as this, not to discuss the subject at hand, but as an excuse to criticize DL. Instead of discussing what DL MIGHT do because of this merger, they'd rather bring on their "doomsday" theories on why DL should watch out and that DL has ONLY been successful, not because they've been managed well, but because their competitors haven't been doing as well.

Odd, isn't it, that two of the carriers that have merged, which their fanboys were always lauding about how good they were....UA and CO, now that they've merged have somehow become inferior to DL and that's the only reason that DL is doing so well. Then, somehow, they'll become formidable, again, when they finish their merger (if ever   ).

As I mentioned before, DL is very aware of their compeitors, their just not in a panic about it and the US/AA merger won't change that.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: delimit
Posted 2013-02-16 21:49:57 and read 2604 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):
but the network will grow

It will probably contract a bit, actually.

Topic: RE: DL Response To AA/US Merger?
Username: SA7700
Posted 2013-02-17 00:49:04 and read 2513 times.

This thread has run its course and will be locked for further contributions. Unfortunately it has become nothing more than a squabble between two groups stating, "mine is better/bigger than yours". Nothing new or constructive is being added.

Any posts added after the thread lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.


Regards,


SA7700


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