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Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: xdlx
Posted 2013-02-17 14:25:27 and read 16282 times.

Can we speculate beyond all the damage that will be inflicted by the Horton/Parker ultra ego's? I am interested in the views of some that can see that far ahead. Can MIA be considered an ALL Airbus base by 2018?

Who will be in the lineup to direct AA in the next 5 years..... Are there any rising stars in the "cactus" west or east camps that can take this great new formed megaairline to the next level? Or do we expect the next Crandall to come tfrom the halls of the " Academy " in FT. Worth.
It is certainly in their best interest to find some respectable talent that can bring this great airline back from the brink, to a recognize leader level... " The On-Time Machine " would be a great goal to stride for......

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: aacun
Posted 2013-02-17 14:27:30 and read 16299 times.

Its American Airlines....... Not Airways.

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: LONGisland89
Posted 2013-02-17 14:55:07 and read 16045 times.

American Airways? Ok.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
Can we speculate beyond all the damage that will be inflicted by the Horton/Parker ultra ego's? I am interested in the views of some that can see that far ahead. Can MIA be considered an ALL Airbus base by 2018?

To some degree a CEO is naturally going to have some kind of ego about themselves regardless of the company or industry. On the surface, I don't think this merger will be any different from the DL/NW or UA/CO mergers. After all, it's not like the airlines are some kind of dictatorship lead by crazy CEO that don't consult or work with their board, VPs and management. MIA may end up seeing a fair chuck of the A319s but I don't see the 737s leaving MIA in 5 years.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
It is certainly in their best interest to find some respectable talent that can bring this great airline back from the brink, to a recognize leader level...

AA is/was no more "on the brink" than DL or UA ever was and I'd argue in better financial position that UA, US, and DL when entering bankruptcy. As I write this, wouldn't it be refreshing to see a female airline CEO running the world's largest airline? US and AA management will morph together and it really won't matter who runs what and where they came from (labor...we will see). I think American Airlines is in good hands.

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: american 767
Posted 2013-02-17 15:24:34 and read 15817 times.

Quoting LONGisland89 (Reply 2):
MIA may end up seeing a fair chuck of the A319s but I don't see the 737s leaving MIA in 5 years.


Neither do I. I'm sure that 763s, 772s and 77Ws will dominate the long haul sector out of MIA to Europe and South America. It is possible, however, that MIA-JFK sees the A330 because that route has seen all widebody equipment (except the 747) American has ever flown. Of course the A330 equipment would be ex-US because AA wouldn't phase any of those in if the merger wasn't finalized.

By then, the 757 fleet will be much smaller than it is now. The last few 757s that American will have left in 5 or 6 years from now will be flying out of MIA, like the last few 727s were flying out of MIA back in the early 2000s. Why MIA and not DFW not JFK? Because MIA sees more 757s than any other hub does.

Quoting LONGisland89 (Reply 2):
I think American Airlines is in good hands.

I think so too.  

Ben Soriano

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: AA737-823
Posted 2013-02-17 16:40:14 and read 15468 times.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
Can MIA be considered an ALL Airbus base by 2018?

That would be foolhardy.
The A319 has strengths and weaknesses, vis a vis the 737-700. Same for 320 vs 738 and 321 vs 739.
Complicate that with the fact that AA has TWO generations of EACH airframe on order, and what you end up with is a very customizable fleet. The plane they need for MIA-DFW may not be the same plane that they need for MIA-SEA.
They'll take a page from UA's book, where we've seen 737's move to UA hubs operations, to take advantage of the strengths of that airframe, as well as A319/320 move to CO hubs, to take advantage of the strengths of that airframe.

This consolidation business is about maximizing revenue and minimizing cost. Operating one type at one hub and another type at another hub makes limited sense from a maintenance standpoint, and virtually no sense from a revenue/cost management standpoint.
In my opinion.

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: aacun
Posted 2013-02-17 17:25:05 and read 15202 times.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):

Parker has been waiting for this all his life. This is his moment. I would think he is ready to show all the skeptics/critics that he really knows what he is doing and he's gonna show the industry he and his airline were being underestimated all along. He will show people what the "ugly girl" is capable of, and may just about get the last laugh while at it.

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-17 17:37:47 and read 15111 times.

With all of the differences of opinion going on in the subthreads of this merger, and predictions from a.netters that range the entire span from A to Z, I think that this would be a good thread to initiate the

"I Told You So" Awards.

Everyone gets to state their outlook, and five years from now, on 2/17/2018, everyone gets back together here with hindsight available....... and receive their "I Told You So" Award statuette........

And so the games begin........


 

[Edited 2013-02-17 17:40:21]

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: JayBird
Posted 2013-02-17 17:48:08 and read 15017 times.

3 different pilot unions?  

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2013-02-17 18:19:53 and read 14805 times.

Quoting aacun (Reply 1):
Its American Airlines....... Not Airways.

I am pretty sure the user who started this thread knows that. It was probably a tongue-in-cheek comment to describe in two words the carrier that will result from the merger of American Airlines and U.S. Airways.

Quoting LONGisland89 (Reply 2):
On the surface, I don't think this merger will be any different from the DL/NW or UA/CO mergers.

Well, those two could not be any more different from each other. Whereas the DL and NW teams were able to successfully implement a rather seamless integration, things have been very different at UA.

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: bohica
Posted 2013-02-17 20:09:08 and read 14071 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 8):
Quoting aacun (Reply 1):
Its American Airlines....... Not Airways.

I am pretty sure the user who started this thread knows that. It was probably a tongue-in-cheek comment to describe in two words the carrier that will result from the merger of American Airlines and U.S. Airways.

I prefer U.S. Airlines.  

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: atxpatriot811
Posted 2013-02-17 20:16:03 and read 13925 times.

Quoting JayBird (Reply 7):

I wish they'd put the squabbles on TV! I've got my popcorn ready!

Topic: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: LONGisland89
Posted 2013-02-17 23:12:39 and read 12037 times.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 4):
They'll take a page from UA's book, where we've seen 737's move to UA hubs operations, to take advantage of the strengths of that airframe, as well as A319/320 move to CO hubs, to take advantage of the strengths of that airframe.

This consolidation business is about maximizing revenue and minimizing cost. Operating one type at one hub and another type at another hub makes limited sense from a maintenance standpoint, and virtually no sense from a revenue/cost management standpoint.
In my opinion.

You hit the nail on the head with these comments. Couldn't agree more!

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 8):
Well, those two could not be any more different from each other. Whereas the DL and NW teams were able to successfully implement a rather seamless integration, things have been very different at UA.

I was speaking more in the context relating to CEO's egos in each merger. No doubt the US and AA integration will run into some tough spots of its own.

Quoting point2point (Reply 6):
"I Told You So" Awards.

Everyone gets to state their outlook, and five years from now, on 2/17/2018, everyone gets back together here with hindsight available....... and receive their "I Told You So" Award statuette........

And so the games begin........

Hmmmmmmm, a few random thoughts. I think it would be wise for AA/US to have a standard J product (the same cirrus seats) across its 77W, 77E, A332 and A333 fleet. - a la Cathay Pacific - and just keep F on the 77Ws. Of course US's envoy A330 seats are similar, so just some minor tweaking to be done to make it the same with what's on the 77W. I think it is a mistake for AA to have a different J seat on its 77E fleet.
Obviously the 762s are gone, remove the 763s from Europe and deep South America, and configure them for lower yielding domestic, Latin America, Caribbean etc. However, even with the extra slack in the 77E fleet due to the 77W, I'm not sure if US has enough A330s to cover all the long haul missions AA uses the 763 for. AA probably has no choice but to go ahead and stick with its plans for a new J product for the 767 (something along the lines of what DL is putting on its 767s would be nice).

My most bold "I told you so" prediction: PHL-TLV gone in favor of MIA-TLV...maybe JFK-TLV. (btw, didn't see it in the other threads but does the merger solve AA's "TLV issue"?)

[Edited 2013-02-17 23:13:19]

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: oldeuropean
Posted 2013-02-18 03:43:01 and read 10579 times.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?

Chapter 11?   

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-18 05:30:11 and read 9793 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 12):
American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Chapter 11?

That depends on the price and fuel, any terrorist acts and how the economy is doing. Trillion dollar deficits in Washington are bad for every industry.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: Alnicocunife
Posted 2013-02-18 06:14:30 and read 9359 times.

The integration of ALL of the computer, maintenance FF, etc... will take at least 5 years, I do not believe Delta is done yet.

Culture 10 years and I hope it is a combination of good qualities of all. This will pay the biggest dividend!!!! Solid unified, focused on customer satisfaction.

Cost to run the airline will be quite a bit higher (for a couple of years) Pay and multiple systems integration

Loss of jobs will be 10K+ people? Sad but a fact in mergers.

There are plenty of aircraft and types for increasing areas of deficiencies (Africa, Asia) I hope they make the best of it.

Good Luck Mr. Parker and ALL of the "New American" employees!. A very long journey that has great potential.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: rbgso
Posted 2013-02-18 07:51:57 and read 8381 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 12):
Chapter 11?   

That would be my guess as well.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: xdlx
Posted 2013-02-18 07:58:34 and read 8276 times.

Quoting Alnicocunife (Reply 14):

Inacurate..... DL is operating under one certificate, and all functions have been integrated.

Partially my point.... Mr. Parker was UNABLE to merge USAirways. They still operate like two divisions, west/east and where unable to attain the full benefit of that merger. The only credit I give Mr. Parker is that he realized USAirways could not survive by itself... thus he was willing to merge it with Aeroflot if necessary. His persistance paid off!.....
Now he best enjoy the champange, and look for some of the DL talent that made that merger happen, bring it onboard and enjoy his lifetime benefits..... IF AA is to achieve is true greatness.... DP must leave within 18months or the damage will be to great to reverse it.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-02-18 08:03:29 and read 8219 times.

Quoting xdlx (Reply 16):

Partially my point.... Mr. Parker was UNABLE to merge USAirways. They still operate like two divisions, west/east and where unable to attain the full benefit of that merger. The only credit I give Mr. Parker is that he realized USAirways could not survive by itself... thus he was willing to merge it with Aeroflot if necessary. His persistance paid off!.....
Now he best enjoy the champange, and look for some of the DL talent that made that merger happen, bring it onboard and enjoy his lifetime benefits..... IF AA is to achieve is true greatness.... DP must leave within 18months or the damage will be to great to reverse it.

You do realize that it's just not Doug Parker that will be pulling this merger together right? There's a lot of experienced management in both companies, especially AA, when it comes to mergers.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: xdlx
Posted 2013-02-18 09:05:32 and read 7684 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 17):

Ok lets review this statement AA expeirence in Mergers or Aquisitions.

RENO AIR....... destroyed the network and absorbed the fleet never to yield anything out of it but more S80 aircraft.

TWA ............... Destroyed STL and again did not yielded much more than route authorities from JFK....

I am not so sure that either company can be described as a lover of employee relations, and that is more than obvious and well recorded in their history.
I want AA to succeed...please do not get me wrong! However fresh blood will be needed to jump start the required TRUST that must permeate thru the company in order to make it a succesfull merger.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: Cody
Posted 2013-02-18 09:09:04 and read 7654 times.

If the US economy miraculously maintains itself (and I don't think it will) in five years..........

1. The only real remnant of US Airways will be former employees, most of the DCA operation, and some of the A319/320/321 fleet. US 757's and 767's will be gone and possibly A330's beginning to leave. A350 order will either be canceled or cut back in favor of 787's. I would bet canceled.

2. PHL will be cut way back. In five years PHL will be down to flights to DFW, ORD, MIA, CLT, DCA, LAX, BOS, LGA, JFK, PHX, Heathrow, Frankfurt, RDU, FLL, MCO, and SFO. In ten years it will be all but abandoned with flights to the hubs only. At that point you will hear the PHL Airport Authority talking like Pittsburgh does now. Phoenix will folllow the same path as PHL.

3. CLT won't be injured as much as PHL in five years, but by 10 it will be. In five years I guess they will be in the midst of "right-sizing" and they will call it a focus city. You will be in the beginning of hearing things like, "we are removing the evening bank of flights" and ending Brazil and the islands. Then they will say, "we' are cutting it back more and connecting people through MIA, DCA, DFW and JFK instead." Then they will say, "We've cut it back so far it is no longer profitable". Then it will one day just be gone. CLT will die the same slow death as STL.

4. MTX in PIT gone.

5. American Eagle divested completely into what is left of Republic (major changes coming for that company I think). It will consist of EMB 175's and a few EMB 145's with the latter on it's way out fast. Who knows, they may sign some short-term the deal with SkyWest by then as well. I predict in 10 years no more Eagle at all.

6. If the C-Series makes it out of production, it will be on property at the mainline by way of the Republic order.

7. The fleet will be inner-mixed everywhere, except ORD will have a big emphasis on the EMB 175's.

8. MIA and DFW grow some, the rest of the former AA hubs look about the same.

9. A few cities added in Asia and the Pacific Rim from DFW and ORD.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-02-18 12:41:54 and read 6035 times.

Non existent. They will not recover form the bad management decisions of the new management team and the New DeltablueUnited Air will have a monopoly.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-18 13:05:22 and read 5862 times.

Quoting xdlx (Reply 18):
Ok lets review this statement AA expeirence in Mergers or Aquisitions.

RENO AIR....... destroyed the network and absorbed the fleet never to yield anything out of it but more S80 aircraft.

TWA ............... Destroyed STL and again did not yielded much more than route authorities from JFK....

I am not so sure that either company can be described as a lover of employee relations, and that is more than obvious and well recorded in their history.
I want AA to succeed...please do not get me wrong! However fresh blood will be needed to jump start the required TRUST that must permeate thru the company in order to make it a succesfull merger.

Reno Air was a great buy at the time. But no one, except for Warren Buffet, saw the tech and dot.com sectors collapsing in early 2000. From what people at AA tell me, dot.com executives were flush with IPO cash and flying a lot, often on walk-up fares or in first class. By the same token, tech took a hit, because so many computer users had planned for Y2K. By the end of Q1 2000, people were in good shape in terms of technology, and tech companies just weren't flying employees as they had in 1998 and 1999.

TWA was also a great buy at the time. The summer of 2000 was miserable at ORD. It was one of the stormiest summers that I remember, and I have lived in the metro area since 1962. It seems every day, there were severe storm watches and warnings on The Weather Channel crawler.

Having another hub 300 miles away made sense, because there was no timetable for the ORD modernization plan, and the delays were getting worse, as more traffic was being stuffed into the airport. The modernization plan was still being tied up in court by the various suburbs who were adament that Chicago needed a third airport, instead of a larger ORD. Peter Fitzgerald had been elected to the U.S. Senate with backing from suburban Republicans who wanted the ORD expansion halted at the federal level. Plus, TWA had a lot of European route authorities that AA wanted badly.

What made the merger a bad idea was:

a) the feds rejecting the UA/US merger. AA was going to swap TW's 757s with P&W engines for US's 757's with RR engines. Then, it was going to lease some of the F100s to DC Air while taking delivery of the 717s that TWA ordered.

b) 9/11. Even today, ORD has fewer operations and fewer passengers than compared to 2000 through 2003.

c) U.S-E.U. Open Skies agreement. Who needs route authorities, when the U.S. and the E.U will allow U.S. and Euro Zone carriers to serve what ever cities they wish?

As for the US-AA merger, from what I read, Doug Parker seems to be more open with his employees than AA employees have had with Horton, Arpey, and Cary. If they have someone who is as open and honest as Bob Crandall was, but without the brusqe personality, I think AA can do very well.

Obviously, AA and US unions need to deal with all of the seniority issues quickly and get a single list for each labor group.

Between the new scope clause in the AA-APA contract, the A319s arriving, the current US fleet, and the aircraft AA has on order, AA will be able to right-size its operations across the network, especially at ORD. ORD really started to have issues, when there was no plane between the MD-80 and the CRJ.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: ripcordd
Posted 2013-02-18 13:12:09 and read 5761 times.

Quoting xdlx (Reply 18):

AA did merger with Reno or TWA they bought them both, looking back both were horrible mistakes. STL was gone cause they didnt have enough o/d to support AA's higher costs and with hubs just north and a little south of it was a no brainer to pull it down. If AA did not buy TWA all those employees would have lost everything they had cause nobody was going to buy them.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-18 13:21:29 and read 5691 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 21):
Reno Air was a great buy at the time. But no one, except for Warren Buffet, saw the tech and dot.com sectors collapsing in early 2000.

No it wasn't. Reno Air was a stupid decision, before the tech bubble burst. That merger was based on the misguided (some might say arrogant) assumption that AA could compensate for dramatically elevating QQ's costs by dramatically elevating revenue from combining the QQ intra-west network (LAX/SJC) with AA's global network. Problem is that never happened - the costs went up, but the revenue didn't.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 21):
TWA was also a great buy at the time.

There were certain assets TWA had that were valuable at the time, but of course in hindsight it would have been far better for AA to have simply let TWA fail - which apparently was weeks off when AA entered the picture.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 21):
As for the US-AA merger, from what I read, Doug Parker seems to be more open with his employees than AA employees have had with Horton, Arpey, and Cary. If they have someone who is as open and honest as Bob Crandall was, but without the brusqe personality, I think AA can do very well.

Parker does seem to have a congenial, down-to-earth style. That should serve him well at AA. He doesn't seem to have made too many friends among the US unions, but of course the whole labor dynamic is set to change now.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 21):
Obviously, AA and US unions need to deal with all of the seniority issues quickly and get a single list for each labor group.

It will be interesting to see how painful SLI is.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 21):
Between the new scope clause in the AA-APA contract, the A319s arriving, the current US fleet, and the aircraft AA has on order, AA will be able to right-size its operations across the network, especially at ORD. ORD really started to have issues, when there was no plane between the MD-80 and the CRJ.

Agreed. AA is now finally free to respond in a competitively viable way across its network, including in Chicago. The union contracts that for the better part of a decade contributed to AA's struggles to respond to the changes in the competitive environment are now finally gone. It will be interesting to see what AA is now able to do with this new freedom, and scale.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-02-18 13:38:58 and read 5540 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 23):
There were certain assets TWA had that were valuable at the time, but of course in hindsight it would have been far better for AA to have simply let TWA fail - which apparently was weeks off when AA entered the picture.

Actually, it was days if you believed my late father (37+ years with TW and AA). In fact, he told me that TW had 48 hours when the deal was announced before they went under. I was certainly a TWA fan boy, but to all of those in STL who bashed AA after the deal was made it was a case of sour grapes. It gave quite a few TW employees continued employment (with substantial pay raises to boot). The alternative was to see thousands unemployed immediately after TW went belly up, with AA, DL, UA, etc left to pick at the remains of the dead carcass.

The closing of the STL hub was just a matter of time, in fact I'm surprised it lasted as long as it did.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: brooklynchris13
Posted 2013-02-18 14:11:45 and read 5580 times.

Five Years On...

First Tier Hubs: DFW*, MIA*, [domestic and int'l Connections; good local O/D, full scope hub]

Second Tier Hubs:
JFK (NYC O/D, moderate connecting flow, INT'L Focus)
LGA (NYC O/D, domestic focus)
ORD (good sized hub w/ mix of domestic and Int'l connection focus, good local O/D)
PHL (good medium sized hub w/ mix of domestic and INT'l Connection focus and decent local O/D)
DCA (DC O/D)
LAX (So. CA O/D, moderate connecting flow, INT'L Focus)

Third Tier Hub:

PHX (smaller O/D, but able to serve as alternate connection point for much of west coast)

With an airline as large as AA, there will be room enough for all the hubs to play at some level.

Fleet:
(Very Rough numbers)
A319: 100
A320: 100
B738: 250
A321: 200 (25 A321T or more if more premium routes support it.. MIA-??,)
B752: 50
B788: 75
B772: 47
A332/A333: 25
B773: 25

Thats my predictions for what its worth. After my initial shock and horror I think those who have posted about Parker's motivation to make this work really well are onto something. He may just have the motivation and drive to build a world class carrier out of this. He will certainly have the routes and the aircraft to do it. But it all comes down to the economy and the people. If the personnel are willing to make it happen and the economy grows as many are predicting, then this may turn out to be the most successful of the mega-airline mergers.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: ckfred
Posted 2013-02-18 14:21:39 and read 5445 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 23):
No it wasn't. Reno Air was a stupid decision, before the tech bubble burst. That merger was based on the misguided (some might say arrogant) assumption that AA could compensate for dramatically elevating QQ's costs by dramatically elevating revenue from combining the QQ intra-west network (LAX/SJC) with AA's global network. Problem is that never happened - the costs went up, but the revenue didn't.

But, AA was making a ton of money out flights out SJC. Even if coach was a third empty, a lot of seats in coach were walk-up fares or 3-day fares, and most everyone in first had bought a ticket. The dot.com people were spending IPO cash like there was no tomorrow. That came to a screeching halt in April, when the stock market crashed.

Further, you have to remember that Las Vegas and Orlando have been getting more and more conventions over the last 15 years. Chicago has lost a lot of conventions, because both McCormick Place and Chicago in general are very expensive. At the time AA bought QQ, QQ was building up its LAS operation.

What may also have driven this was the fact that CP was sinking, despite AA's investment. The initial plan was that YVR was to become the oneworld hub to Asia, with AA feeding traffic from south of the border into YVR. By getting the QQ operation at SJC (which was the old AA operation), AA was preparing to add some flights to Asia out of the Silicon Valley.

Didn't AA fly to Taipei out of SJC for a while, after the QQ purchase?

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 22):

There were certain assets TWA had that were valuable at the time, but of course in hindsight it would have been far better for AA to have simply let TWA fail - which apparently was weeks off when AA entered the picture.

In hindsight, it would have been better to let TWA fail and buy assets at the sale. But, the summer of 2000 was so horrible that AA needed an operating TWA to act as the reliever for ORD. A friend of mine is an AA pilot, and he thinks about 75% of his departures to and from ORD (he's ORD crew base) were late, either because of weather at ORD, waiting for connecting passengers from a delayed AA flight, or waiting for passengers being sent over from UA due to the pilot sick-out.

There was an article in the Chicago Tribune late in the summer about how the UA sick-out at ORD would throw off the schedule, only to go into complete shut down, when a thunderstorm would approached the field. Considering how much corporate business AA picked up at UA's expense, AA felt that the upside from having another Midwest hub outweighed the reasons to let TWA go under and cherry pick assets to buy.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-02-18 14:27:54 and read 5547 times.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 25):
He may just have the motivation and drive to build a world class carrier out of this. He will certainly have the routes and the aircraft to do it.

He has the tools to make a really great airline,

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 25):
But it all comes down to the economy and the people. If the personnel are willing to make it happen and the economy grows as many are predicting, then this may turn out to be the most successful of the mega-airline mergers.

but his track record is not so great in terms of getting the most out of an airline.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: brooklynchris13
Posted 2013-02-18 15:36:34 and read 5381 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 27):
but his track record is not so great in terms of getting the most out of an airline.

Perhaps, but thankfully one person does not an airline make. Especially given the intricate nature of this deal, there will be many people pushing for this to be a success both inside and outside of the company. Further, the many, many comments that someone isnt up to a task can sometimes be the best motivator. I hope, for the sake of American, its employees and its customers (myself included) that every member of the executive team rises up to the challenge. And, along the way, I hope they find it in their hearts to upguage LGA-CMH to at least CR7 all the time, if not a 319 once in awhile. And, if I move back to CMH, that MIA flight better be something larger than a 135. Thats just painful!

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: Austwin
Posted 2013-02-18 15:39:12 and read 5402 times.

I think PHX will play a very important role in the future. Right now it has a huge O/D market. The future growth projections for the population are to increase greatly. I don't think it will rival DFW in size and scope, but it won't be reduced to the levels I've heard projected here. To suggest that it will be resized to the levels of SLC is ridiculous imho. I think people fail to recognize that RIGHT NOW it operates as a hub with travelers in the West having the option of connection on US via PHX or AA via DFW.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: american 767
Posted 2013-02-18 15:50:03 and read 5361 times.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 25):
LAX (So. CA O/D, moderate connecting flow, INT'L Focus)

Also keep in mind that LAX is the gateway to Hawaii, that's where most direct flights to Hawaii originate from.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 25):
Fleet:
(Very Rough numbers)
A319: 100
A320: 100
B738: 250
A321: 200 (25 A321T or more if more premium routes support it.. MIA-??,)
B752: 50
B788: 75
B772: 47
A332/A333: 25
B773: 25

And what about the B763s? So far 58 of them, though the oldest ones dating from the late 80s will soon be leaving the fleet. In your long term fleet plan, I would say B763: 30 or so. It looks like that's what the fleet will be like in 10 years from now.
I understand that you didn't mention the MD-80 and the B762 because those are leaving the fleet now.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-02-18 16:06:09 and read 5285 times.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 26):
Didn't AA fly to Taipei out of SJC for a while, after the QQ purchase?

Yes, for six months in 2001. They also flew SJC-CDG for the same time period. Not sure it directly had anything to do with the QQ purchase. AA canned both new routes after 9/11. They did SJC-MIA for a six month period around the same time too.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: Pu
Posted 2013-02-18 16:26:13 and read 5215 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 23):
assumption that AA could compensate for dramatically elevating QQ's costs by dramatically elevating revenue from combining the QQ intra-west network (LAX/SJC) with AA's global network. Problem is that never happened - the costs went up, but the revenue didn't.

Yes, a larger network does not equal an enhanced revenue premium compared to the competition, not in the 1990s and even less so today. To think a bigger network and filling in holes on a route map means a higher RASM is nothing but repeating the bankrupt and desperate justifications for AA's failed strategy over the last 15 years.

Those insignificant towns in Allegheny's old route map or close to CLT mean NOTHING to Goldman Sachs executives who pay big bucks to fly between world Gobal/Alpha cities ....and who find newly available service to the likes of EWN completely irrelevant.

The US network does not drive revenue premiums greater than what AA already achieves in its most valuable markets. In fact, adding US to AA weakens the revenue environment across the whole AA network.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 4):

This consolidation business is about maximizing revenue and minimizing cost

If hypothetically the new AA could be run with only the current managment headcount as exists right now at AMR, meaning every US manager is fired, and with pay rates remaining the same across both pre-merger entities this deal would be unquestionable. However, imposing AA pay scales onto the US network makes it unprofitable overall, even though many key routes remain profitable at AA comepnsation levels.

.

I prefer to look at these things in terms of chances or percentages. Given its late mover status and the toxic state of labour relations, this merger has the biggest chance of failure or meaningless result compared to UA/CO and DL/NW.



Pu

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: LDVAviation
Posted 2013-02-18 17:23:03 and read 5117 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 23):
No it wasn't. Reno Air was a stupid decision, before the tech bubble burst. That merger was based on the misguided (some might say arrogant) assumption that AA could compensate for dramatically elevating QQ's costs by dramatically elevating revenue from combining the QQ intra-west network (LAX/SJC) with AA's global network. Problem is that never happened - the costs went up, but the revenue didn't.

That wasn't the rationale at all. AA had offloaded its intra-west network from San Jose to Reno. The decision to offload those flights was done with full knowledge that those flights were not sustainable at AA's costs, despite whatever revenue premium AA was getting from passengers transferring to its international flights.

When RenoAir's business plan stared to fail, AA feared losing its presence at San Jose, despite what it already knew about the intra-west network from San Jose. Remember Reno's frequent flyers were AA frequent flyers because Reno was a partner in the AAdvantage program. So, perhaps, AA had a better idea by that point of what sort of market share it would be losing by abandoning the intra-west network that originated with its AirCal purchase.

Quoting Pu (Reply 32):
The US network does not drive revenue premiums greater than what AA already achieves in its most valuable markets. In fact, adding US to AA weakens the revenue environment across the whole AA network.
Quoting Pu (Reply 32):
I prefer to look at these things in terms of chances or percentages. Given its late mover status and the toxic state of labour relations, this merger has the biggest chance of failure or meaningless result compared to UA/CO and DL/NW.

This is not what the analysts are saying. From a network standpoint, AA goes from #4, #4, and #4 in the East, Central, and West to #1, #1, and #3 respectively. That is a formidable change and will result in increases in Market share and Yield.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: ripcordd
Posted 2013-02-18 18:07:28 and read 5043 times.

Quoting Austwin (Reply 29):

PHX will be a hub that will just support it's O/D in 5 years I think someone posted that they are doing 60-70% of connecting passengers thru PHX now most will be flown thru DFW/ORD and LAX.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: macsog6
Posted 2013-02-18 18:36:25 and read 4928 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 8):
Quoting aacun (Reply 1):Its American Airlines....... Not Airways.I am pretty sure the user who started this thread knows that. It was probably a tongue-in-cheek comment to describe in two words the carrier that will result from the merger of American Airlines and U.S. Airways.

Just for the record, American Airways was the name of the carrier that E.L. Cord acquired in 1934 and changed the name to American Air Lines. Cord then hired C.R. Smith to run his new company. We now know them as AMR.

Thus, I suspect somewhere in the dark reaches of the corporate secretaries office at AMR, they have kept the name American Airways as part of their IP to protect themselves from someone else using it.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: brooklynchris13
Posted 2013-02-18 21:51:30 and read 4727 times.

Quoting american 767 (Reply 30):
And what about the B763s? So far 58 of them, though the oldest ones dating from the late 80s will soon be leaving the fleet. In your long term fleet plan, I would say B763: 30 or so. It looks like that's what the fleet will be like in 10 years from now.
I understand that you didn't mention the MD-80 and the B762 because those are leaving the fleet now.

I thought quite a bit about the 763s. I could see a scenario with some type of accelerated retirement of these, especially if they could find homes (either second hand as passenger or freighter) and be replaced by a full on 788 order and/or a mix of existing US Airways Airbus orders that are maintained. I think the fleet replacement plans will only be accelerated by the merger. But it will be interesting to see how it all goes.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-18 23:25:42 and read 4644 times.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 36):
I thought quite a bit about the 763s. I could see a scenario with some type of accelerated retirement of these

While anything could happen as a result of the merger, I thought I've read that the 763s were earmarked for returning widebody service to the Caribbean, where cargo volume especially was lost due to the retirement of the A300s, and not effectively replaced so far.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: vegas005
Posted 2013-02-18 23:40:54 and read 4636 times.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: Austwin
Posted 2013-02-21 10:14:37 and read 4111 times.

This article states the belief by the Oneworld CEO that the three current US hubs could see increased international flying once the merger with American is completed.

I think this is an interesting point of view since it comes from someone that understands the workings of the alliance and has no hometown airport bias to influence this opinion.

a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/11847672/1/>http://www.thestreet.com/story/11847...hoenix.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO</a></body></html>"/

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: bmacleod
Posted 2013-02-21 10:40:00 and read 4023 times.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 36):
I thought quite a bit about the 763s. I could see a scenario with some type of accelerated retirement of these, especially if they could find homes (either second hand as passenger or freighter) and be replaced by a full on 788 order and/or a mix of existing US Airways Airbus orders that are maintained. I think the fleet replacement plans will only be accelerated by the merger. But it will be interesting to see how it all goes.

Any idea of when AA's 787s will arrive?

No doubt this battery mess will push back delivery dates even further.....

[Edited 2013-02-21 10:40:38]

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: seatback
Posted 2013-02-21 13:50:52 and read 3815 times.

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 40):
Any idea of when AA's 787s will arrive?

No doubt this battery mess will push back delivery dates even further.....

I think we're looking at the end of 2014. I'm not sure there will be much of a delay since Boeing didn't stop production.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: N737AA
Posted 2013-02-22 05:05:06 and read 3476 times.

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 40):
Any idea of when AA's 787s will arrive?
Quoting seatback (Reply 41):
I think we're looking at the end of 2014. I'm not sure there will be much of a delay since Boeing didn't stop production.

Yep 3Q 2014

N737AA

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: goldenstate
Posted 2013-02-22 05:26:48 and read 3435 times.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 33):
This is not what the analysts are saying.

And of course they are never wrong about anything. I'm sure that PHX and PHL will completely transform AA's revenue performance and stop the bleeding in NYC.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-02-23 08:24:35 and read 2929 times.

Quoting xdlx (Reply 16):
Partially my point.... Mr. Parker was UNABLE to merge USAirways. They still operate like two divisions, west/east and where unable to attain the full benefit of that merger


I believe that a majority of the member would place the blame on the US,HP pilots for not competing the merger. Who knows what will happen with a third entry ie:AA pilots. All the pilots in all three groups would give up their first born befoe moving down one postion on the combined seniority list

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: brooklynchris13
Posted 2013-02-23 10:07:23 and read 2786 times.

Maybe, in combination with so many other factors, the desire of US to solve its remaining workforce issues was a driving factor behind a merger. If merging resets the playing field, maybe thats the only way to ensure one effective airline rather than the situation that has existed since the HP combination. Perhaps 1+1+1 will actually equal 1 this time. I cant think for a minute that somehow this merger will end up creating additional divisions or that such an outcome was desired by Parker or Horton.

Topic: RE: American Airlines ... 5 Years From Now?
Username: xdlx
Posted 2013-02-23 13:01:54 and read 2605 times.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 45):

The ONLY WAY is DOE & DOB but as stated by bobnwa SOMEONE IS NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY...!!!!


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