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Topic: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-02-27 08:23:37 and read 15923 times.

Thats what they quote EADS as saying.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ix-to-be-delivered-in-2014-371961/

"General discussions are on-going with customers. However, this should not jeopardise the reaching of [A380] break-even by the beginning of 2015."

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-02-27 08:27:18 and read 15919 times.

That article is from May 2012 ... I fully expect the cracking issue to cost more than 300 million when you include cost of repairs and in-op payments to carriers.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: N14AZ
Posted 2013-02-27 08:33:44 and read 15867 times.

That article is from May 2012 (some members might get confused when reading this article, e.g. delivery target "this year" 30).

However, Airbus said the same in another article. IIRC when reporting about the 100th A380 to be delivered soon.


Now quickly to the supermarket and buying some popcorn - these kinds of threads can be big fun...

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-27 08:35:59 and read 15859 times.

And note we are speaking of Production Break Even, which means they will at sell the airframe for at least what it cost them to build and deliver it.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-02-27 08:37:45 and read 15829 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

Stitch when you say production break even does that include any of the R&D costs or is that seperate ?

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-27 08:39:51 and read 15810 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
Stitch when you say production break even does that include any of the R&D costs or is that separate?

Those costs are all part of Program Break Even.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: fcogafa
Posted 2013-02-27 08:49:38 and read 15710 times.

Flightglobal is also saying that Airbus expect to sell 'considerably more A380s than were sold last year' (9) and Airbus blames the poor sales on the wing issues.

If that is the case (and not an excuse), airlines are taking a very short term view on their A380 purchases.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-27 09:58:31 and read 15336 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
And note we are speaking of Production Break Even

correct.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
which means they will at sell the airframe for at least what it cost them to build and deliver it.

And fund the delay penalties, and inventory costs incurred by the delay.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
Stitch when you say production break even does that include any of the R&D costs or is that seperate ?

No. The A380 will only start to recover R+D costs in 2015.
By coincidence, Boeing have said the same about the 787

My caution on the "production break-even" though, is that almost certainly includes paying back the delay penalties on these early frames and covering their extra inventory costs, both costs which usually on a-net (and in the media) get included in the "programme cost overruns".

I.e. although the original R+D won't begin to be recovered until 2015, several E Bn of the "Programme Cost overruns" (somewhere between E3Bn and E4Bn by my estimation, but that's all it is) will have been recovered on these "loss-making" frames

rgds

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-02-27 10:23:07 and read 15192 times.

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 6):
Flightglobal is also saying that Airbus expect to sell 'considerably more A380s than were sold last year' (9) and Airbus blames the poor sales on the wing issues.

That would be good news. We know of this one possible order which was debated here extensively. But we still do not know who the customer will be.   

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
My caution on the "production break-even" though, is that almost certainly includes paying back the delay penalties on these early frames and covering their extra inventory costs, both costs which usually on a-net (and in the media) get included in the "programme cost overruns".

I.e. although the original R+D won't begin to be recovered until 2015, several E Bn of the "Programme Cost overruns" (somewhere between E3Bn and E4Bn by my estimation, but that's all it is) will have been recovered on these "loss-making" frames

That would be my guess as well. And of course this is much later then originally planned, but finally the goal is within reach now.  .

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: KC135TopBoom
Posted 2013-02-27 10:36:56 and read 15128 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 8):
but finally the goal is within reach now. .

Is it?

Don't forget that assumption is based on what was said some 9-10 months ago.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
I.e. although the original R+D won't begin to be recovered until 2015, several E Bn of the "Programme Cost overruns" (somewhere between E3Bn and E4Bn by my estimation, but that's all it is) will have been recovered on these "loss-making" frames

I agree, but were there not some portion of the A-380 R&D costs already written off and will not be recovered? I believe Boeing has done that, too, with the B-787.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-02-27 10:49:45 and read 15065 times.

Tom Enders today confirmed that the A380 is on track to break even in 2015.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-27 10:58:11 and read 14982 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
I.e. although the original R+D won't begin to be recovered until 2015, several E Bn of the "Programme Cost overruns" (somewhere between E3Bn and E4Bn by my estimation, but that's all it is) will have been recovered on these "loss-making" frames

I suppose that the cost of the set up of the production facilities is part of the R & D? Or how is your view on this?

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-27 11:42:24 and read 14795 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 11):
I suppose that the cost of the set up of the production facilities is part of the R & D? Or how is your view on this?

It's definitely capital investment related to the program, so I would view it as program costs. Operating overhead for those facilities would be considered part of production costs. IMO.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: N14AZ
Posted 2013-02-27 11:42:40 and read 14796 times.

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 6):
Flightglobal is also saying that Airbus expect to sell 'considerably more A380s than were sold last year'

I am getting a little bit tired of Airbus using the word "considerable" when it comes to A 380-sales. Practise what you preach! as the British say...

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: fcogafa
Posted 2013-02-27 11:48:23 and read 14754 times.

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 13):
I am getting a little bit tired of Airbus using the word "considerable" when it comes to A 380-sales. Practise what you preach! as the British say.

Don't forget 'Significant' as well.....

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-27 13:32:21 and read 14416 times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 9):
I agree, but were there not some portion of the A-380 R&D costs already written off and will not be recovered? I believe Boeing has done that, too, with the B-787.

True.
But "written off" doesn't mean that they might not one day be recovered.....
The "write-offs" are almost certainly done for the purposes of Corporation Tax avoidance.
They certainly were in Airbus's case.
It gave them at least 2 years with virtually no tax bill at a time they were conserving cash.
Of course like everything, it must catch up eventually

Quoting abba (Reply 11):
I suppose that the cost of the set up of the production facilities is part of the R & D? Or how is your view on this?

I agree.
especially as the "production facilties" were almost exclusively the target of the RLI advances

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 13):
I am getting a little bit tired of Airbus using the word "considerable" when it comes to A 380-sales. Practise what you preach! as the British say...

What makes you think they're not? 25 sales is "considerably" more than 9 by any measure  

Rgds

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Wingtips56
Posted 2013-02-27 13:59:35 and read 13969 times.

How many firm 380 orders are on back-log now? Are they likely to roll-out before new orders come in, if operators are indeed waiting for the wing fix, economic recovery or other issues to place them?

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-02-27 14:45:20 and read 13368 times.

This is earlier than I expected and probably involves some right off of costs...

But it is good to hear orders are expected. IMHO the delivery delays have been holding up orders and now that there are signs of economic growth, I expect further A380 orders.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: queb
Posted 2013-02-27 14:57:12 and read 13217 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 1):
I fully expect the cracking issue to cost more than 300 million when you include cost of repairs and in-op payments to carriers.

€336 million ($440 million) at least

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...charges-reach-250m-in-2012-382795/

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: art
Posted 2013-02-27 15:08:19 and read 13079 times.

Quoting Wingtips56 (Reply 16):
How many firm 380 orders are on back-log now?

About 150 "firm" firm orders on back-log (disregarding firm orders that may never be delivered eg Kingfisher, Virgin).

If Airbus are going to start breaking even on deliveries sometime in 2015 they will have produced 150+ at a loss assuming production of 20 in 2013 then 30 a year from 2014 onwards.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Azure
Posted 2013-02-27 15:21:57 and read 12963 times.

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 13):
I am getting a little bit tired of Airbus using the word "considerable" when it comes to A 380-sales.
Quoting fcogafa (Reply 14):
Don't forget 'Significant' as well.....

Lucky you ! You must be two quite wealthy residents of Germany and Great Britain if your are in a position to consider approx € 10 billion of potential revenue (25 orders x € 400 million) "not considerable" or "not significant" !


Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
It's definitely capital investment related to the program, so I would view it as program costs.

Correct, I remember Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier saying something like this during his press conference in Toulouse earlier this year.


Quoting Wingtips56 (Reply 16):
How many firm 380 orders are on back-log now?

262 firm orders, 97 deliveries, ie 165 still to be delivered (ie backlog full for the next 5 to 6 years at current rate of production). Source : Airbus website http://www.airbus.com/aircraftfamilies/passengeraircraft/a380family/

On top of that, 53 options. Source : wikipedia (!)

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: travelhound
Posted 2013-02-27 15:22:05 and read 12940 times.

From what I am reading from the Flight Global article break even may not occur in 2015 as deliveries will not be as previously planned.

Quote:
Airbus recently indicated it would deliver 25 A380s in 2013. EADS says the "avenue for break-even in 2015" is "set at 30 deliveries".
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...charges-reach-250m-in-2012-382795/

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-02-27 15:28:47 and read 12885 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
My caution on the "production break-even" though, is that almost certainly includes paying back the delay penalties on these early frames and covering their extra inventory costs, both costs which usually on a-net (and in the media) get included in the "programme cost overruns".

I can't see how it covers delay payments on earlier frames. I expect delay penalties and other directly attributable additional costs are included in the calculation of production break even.

Just my guess based on how we have calculated costs in companies I have been involved.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 9):
I agree, but were there not some portion of the A-380 R&D costs already written off and will not be recovered? I believe Boeing has done that, too, with the B-787.

There are multiple levels of reporting. They differ in how costs and revenue are accounted and thus it is important to understand the type of reporting the number you use is coming from.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: boeing773ER
Posted 2013-02-27 17:23:39 and read 12090 times.

Quoting art (Reply 19):

Why does everyone have the doubt the Virgin will ever take delivery of the A380? Is their orders not confirmed or something?

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-27 18:29:34 and read 11686 times.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 23):
Why does everyone have the doubt the Virgin will ever take delivery of the A380? Is their orders not confirmed or something?

Because they first ordered them in 2001, have already pushed them back to 2017, and because of articles like Virgin’s A380 order depends on economy and oil price: Ridgway where their CEO says:

Quote:

"We don't need to make a decision about [our six A380 orders] now, it very much depends on the state of the global economy and the oil price," he says.

"It's a lovely quiet aircraft but it's very big and you need to operate it on some very big trunks and you need to have a big enough fleet - we always knew we'd have a small fleet and is that fleet too small? And that is a challenge for Virgin Atlantic but it's not something we need to worry about right now."

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-02-27 18:59:51 and read 11966 times.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 23):
Why does everyone have the doubt the Virgin will ever take delivery of the A380?

Too small of a fleet to be economical and VS simply is not performing at the level to up-gauge the routes to take in the aircraft. Besides the deferral Revelation notes above it is (as he also noted) the economy of scale. VS is not in the position to buy a small fleet and then expand the fleet later.

I'm a huge fan of the A380, but not every airline has the business case for the plane. It requires trunk routes that hub. BA has the hubbing network. VS is more O&D.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-02-27 19:58:25 and read 11571 times.

How many aircraft did Airbus predict they needed to deliver in order to break even before the wing issue came up?

And now since the wing issue how many more deliveries would Airbus need to make by the end of 2015 and do they have enough orders on the books right now to meet their new prediction?

Although A380s are still selling the pace at which airlines are ordering these aircraft has slowed down tremendously so can Airbus realistically hit the break even point by the end of 2015 or are they just being very optimistic with their predictions?

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-27 20:29:43 and read 11684 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 26):
How many aircraft did Airbus predict they needed to deliver in order to break even before the wing issue came up?

More than 400.


Quoting jayunited (Reply 26):
And now since the wing issue how many more deliveries would Airbus need to make by the end of 2015 and do they have enough orders on the books right now to meet their new prediction?

Assuming 30 deliveries a year going forward, they have enough orders to last them until mid-2018.



Quoting jayunited (Reply 26):
Although A380s are still selling the pace at which airlines are ordering these aircraft has slowed down tremendously so can Airbus realistically hit the break even point by the end of 2015 or are they just being very optimistic with their predictions?

With the extra expenses from the wing crack issue, Airbus may not make production break-even in 2015, but if they should not, they will likely be close. The real key is to produce a consistent 30-35 frames per year.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-02-27 20:50:43 and read 11480 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
Tom Enders today confirmed that the A380 is on track to break even in 2015

Here is the quote ""General discussions are on-going with customers. However, this should not jeopardise the reaching of [A380] break-even by the beginning of 2015."

He doesn't confirm it he is just stating that it wing fix should not jeopardise the break even point, this is not a confirmation that it will breakeven unless I missed something in the article.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-27 21:49:55 and read 11188 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 22):
I can't see how it covers delay payments on earlier frames. I expect delay penalties and other directly attributable additional costs are included in the calculation of production break even.

We appear to be in agreement, unless I missed something

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 23):
Why does everyone have the doubt the Virgin will ever take delivery of the A380?

fashion.
They've had 12 years to cancel this order. But it's still there....

Quoting brilondon (Reply 28):
this is not a confirmation that it will breakeven

what is it then, if its not that?

Quoting brilondon (Reply 28):
""General discussions are on-going with customers. However, this should not jeopardise the reaching of [A380] break-even by the beginning of 2015."

i don't know how that can be read any other way.
It's worth noting that the production break even point is forecast as the beginning of 2015

rgds

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Azure
Posted 2013-02-28 00:45:53 and read 9719 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Quoting jayunited (Reply 26):
How many aircraft did Airbus predict they needed to deliver in order to break even before the wing issue came up?

More than 400.

Sources please ?

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: art
Posted 2013-02-28 01:08:46 and read 9532 times.

Quoting Azure (Reply 30):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Quoting jayunited (Reply 26):
How many aircraft did Airbus predict they needed to deliver in order to break even before the wing issue came up?

More than 400.

Sources please ?

IIRC Airbus originally predicted the program would break even at 250 frames. They raised that number to 275 before the CATIA wiring problem came to light. After that they raised the number to 420 and since that number was given have not come up with a further prediction. With production at lower levels than anticipated in the ensuing years + the wing issue needing rectification, I wonder what number of frames Airbus currently think they will need to produce before program break even. I imagine it must be 500+.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Pellegrine
Posted 2013-02-28 01:27:33 and read 9360 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
And note we are speaking of Production Break Even, which means they will at sell the airframe for at least what it cost them to build and deliver it.

Thanks.    I was about to post that, but you beat me to it again! Anything else in this thread is hogwash, or was covered in the last when is A380/B787 profitable thread.  

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-02-28 06:26:12 and read 6823 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 29):
They've had 12 years to cancel this order. But it's still there....

As is the Kingfisher order, and about as likely to be taken up.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-28 08:40:52 and read 5828 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 29):
They've had 12 years to cancel this order. But it's still there....

I could see a scenario where VS was allowed to apply their A380-800 deposits towards their A330-300 order so keeping the A380 order on the books would literally cost them nothing.

Then again, PR had a couple 747-400s on order for quite an extended period of time before they finally converted them to 777-300ERs. *shrug*

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-02-28 10:41:00 and read 5547 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 29):
what is it then, if its not that?

I did not read as such but if that is what you read into it then by all means, believe it. I don't see it as a break-even until all costs associated with the program are indeed covered including development costs and the subsequent costs surrounding the wing issues. To me that is break-even. That is what I took from the article. I am not saying that it is or it isn't. It is that people on these boards tend to read into quotes something that is not there.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-02-28 11:38:30 and read 5450 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 28):
He doesn't confirm it he is just stating that it wing fix should not jeopardise the break even point, this is not a confirmation that it will breakeven unless I missed something in the article.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 29):
what is it then, if its not that?
Quoting brilondon (Reply 35):
I don't see it as a break-even until all costs associated with the program are indeed covered including development costs and the subsequent costs surrounding the wing issues. To me that is break-even.

As the article is written, it is not unreasonable for one to assume that EADS is referring to Program Break Even - the point at which all costs in developing the A380-800 and bringing it to production - have been recovered. However, other comments by EADS senior executives at the time made it clear they were referring to Production Break Even - the delivery revenue of the frame was equal (or more) than the cost to produce it.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: abba
Posted 2013-02-28 12:48:17 and read 5333 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
. However, other comments by EADS senior executives at the time made it clear they were referring to Production Break Even - the delivery revenue of the frame was equal (or more) than the cost to produce it.


I believe that it is more than a break even on a per frame basis. The milestone when they made more money producing a frame than its production costs, I believe, Airbus exec's claim to have reached some time ago. What they seems to be talking about now is the entire production. Now - in 2015 - the surplus for the later frames have recovered the deficits producing the first frames. Production will then have reached break even. What they can begin to do now is to pay back the R & D costs. This is how I understand it.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-02-28 15:08:29 and read 5174 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
As is the Kingfisher order, and about as likely to be taken up.

It's not unreasonable to expect an airline which is not financially viable enough to actually operate not to take up its order

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
I could see a scenario where VS was allowed to apply their A380-800 deposits towards their A330-300 order so keeping the A380 order on the books would literally cost them nothing.

they've had 12 years to do this, too

Quoting brilondon (Reply 35):
I don't see it as a break-even until all costs associated with the program are indeed covered including development costs and the subsequent costs surrounding the wing issues. To me that is break-even

Ah. see what you mean.
Indeed I don't believe it to mean programme break-even, only per frame production break-even

Rgds

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: crownvic
Posted 2013-02-28 19:32:43 and read 4984 times.

I'm not buying it. How could this program possibly be at breakeven by this date? Then again, if it is coming from Flight Global and it is related to Airbus, it is always suspect. Hands down, Flight Int'l is probably the best aviation publication out there, but their bias to Airbus is borderline nauseating.

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: gemuser
Posted 2013-02-28 20:42:06 and read 4964 times.

Quoting crownvic (Reply 39):
How could this program possibly be at breakeven by this date?

Go and read the thread again!
Nobody is saying the PROGRAM will break even in 2015, they are saying that PRODUCTION (ie per frame produced) will break even in 2015. A necessary step towards program break even but its not it.

Gemuser

Topic: RE: A380 Break Even In 2015?
Username: Unflug
Posted 2013-03-01 20:13:15 and read 4517 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
Tom Enders today confirmed that the A380 is on track to break even in 2015.

From the press release dated Feb 27th:

Regarding the A380, the wing rib issue has been resolved with repairs on-going on deployed aircraft and design modifications embodied into the new production standard. The avenue for breakeven in 2015 is set at 30 deliveries.

http://www.eads.com/eads/int/en/news..._annual_press_conference_2013.html

Some additional Information in the earnings presentation and preliminary financial statement:

http://www.eads.com/dms/eads/int/en/...EADS%20Annual%20Results%202012.pdf

http://www.eads.com/dms/eads/int/en/...0financial%20statements%202012.pdf


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