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Topic: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-27 06:35:10 and read 10318 times.

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

AA MIA-PLS JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

AC ALB-YYZ APR 1.7>1.6
AC GRR-YYZ APR 1.7>1.6
AC MDT-YYZ APR 1.9>1.6

AM JFK-MEX MAY 5>4
AM LAS-MEX APR 1.4>1.9 MAY 2>1.8 JUN 3>1.9 JUL 3>1.8 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.9 OCT 3>1.9

BB SPB-SSB JUN 0>12 JUL 0>12 AUG 0>12 SEP 0>12 OCT 0>12
BB STX-SJU MAR 1.9>1.7
BR SEA-TPE OCT 0.6>0.7

BW FLL-KIN MAR 1.9>1.2 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
BW FLL-MBJ MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

DL ALB-MSP JUN 1.0>1.7 JUL 1.0>2.0 AUG 1.0>2
Now I think they really are upset with AS.
**DL ANC-SEA JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
DL ATL-BNA JUN 11>10 JUL 11>10
DL ATL-LAS JUL 7>8
DL ATL-NAS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
DL ATL-SFO JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
*DL CVG-GSO JUN 0.8>0.2 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.8>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.9>0
*DL DIK-MSP JUN 0>1.4 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2
*DL DTW-YQB JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
DL JFK-MVY JUN 1.0>1.7 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
DL JFK-SDQ OCT 2>3
DL JFK-SJU OCT 3>4
DL JFK-STI OCT 2>3
DL JFK-YQB MAY 0.5>0 JUN 2>1.5
And another SEA route...
*DL LAS-SEA JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
DL LAX-ATL JUL 11>12 AUG 11>12
DL LAX-CVG JUL 3>1.8 AUG 3>1.8 SEP 3>1.9 OCT 3>1.9
DL LAX-MSY SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.9>3
DL LAX-SAN JUL 6>5
DL LGA-CHS SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
DL LGA-MCO JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8 SEP 6>7 OCT 6>7
DL MEM-LAS JUN 1.8>1.2 JUL 1.9>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0 SEP 1.9>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0
DL MIA-LGA JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 5>4
DL MSP-ORD JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8
DL SLC-COD JUN 1.9>1.3
DL SLC-EKO JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
DL SLC-ONT JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
DL SLC-SGU JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
DL SLC-SUN JUN 5>6 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>7
DL SLC-TWF JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4

FJ LAX-NAN OCT 0.9>0.7

G4 AZA-OAK JUL 0.6>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.4

Weird...
IS ACK-HYA MAR 14>0 APR 14>0 MAY 14>0 JUN 14>0 JUL 14>0 AUG 14>0 SEP 14>0 OCT 14>0
ISA ACK-HYA MAR 0>14 APR 0>14 MAY 0>14 JUN 0>14 JUL 0>14 AUG 0>14 SEP 0>14 OCT 0>14

JL BOS-NRT MAR 1.0>0.8
JL SAN-NRT MAR 1.0>0.5

KX DFW-GCM APR 0.2>0 MAY 0.3>0.1
KX MIA-GCM MAR 2>3 JUN 2>3 AUG 2.0>3 OCT 2>3

LA MHC-PMC AUG 0>0.6

*NK DFW-TLC APR 0.2>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.6

OS IAD-VIE APR 1.0>0.9

OZ ROR-ICN SEP 0.3>0.6 OCT 0.3>0.5
OZ SPN-KIX APR 0.1>0.2 MAY 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.6 AUG 0>1.0

PK JFK-LHE APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.4 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.4 AUG 0.3>0.5 SEP 0.3>0.4
Do they really fly this?
*PK ORD-BCN JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3

*SE MIA-CDG JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.5

SQ EWR-SIN APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.9 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.8 AUG 1.0>0.9 SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.8

SY DCA-LAN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0
SY DFW-CUN MAY 0.8>0.9
SY LAN-MSP MAY 0.0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0

TA JFK-SAP JUN 0.3>0.4
TA LAX-GUA JUN 0.0>0.2

Looks like a trade. PHX was year round before? Wonder if it will come back.
*UA CLE-PDX JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
*UA CLE-PHX JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0.2
UA DEN-BZN JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA DEN-FAT JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
*UA DEN-FLL AUG 0.9>0.3 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
UA DEN-HSV JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.1>2.0
UA DEN-ICT JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA DEN-MFR JUL 2>3 AUG 1.9>3
UA DEN-MSO JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-NRT APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0.6
UA DEN-RDM JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>1.7
UA DEN-SEA JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA DEN-TVC JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
UA EWR-PWM JUN 4>5
UA EWR-YQB JUN 3>4
UA LAX-IAH SEP 12>13 OCT 12>13
UA LAX-IPL APR 0.4>1.9
UA ORD-PIT JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
UA ORD-SYR JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
UA SFO-CDG APR 0.7>0.2
UA SFO-PVR JUL 0.5>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.5
*UA SFO-TPE APR 0.7>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.8

VX FLL-SFO AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.5

WP HNL-LNY APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
WP LNY-HNL APR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5

*Y4 DEN-MEX MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0
Y4 LAS-GDL APR 1.3>1.1 MAY 1.3>1.0 JUN 1.3>1.0 JUL 1.3>1.0 AUG 1.3>1.0 SEP 1.3>1.0 OCT 1.3>1.0
Y4 LAS-MEX APR 2>1.5 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
Y4 LAX-MEX APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.5 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
Y4 LAX-MLM APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7
Y4 MCO-MEX APR 0.4>0.2 MAY 0.4>0.2 JUN 0.5>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
*Y4 OAK-MEX APR 0.6>0.2 MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.5>0
*Y4 SAN-GDL APR 0.5>0.1 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.5>0
Y4 SAN-MEX MAY 0.9>0.5 JUN 0.9>0.6 JUL 0.8>0.5 AUG 0.9>0.6 SEP 0.8>0.6 OCT 0.9>0.5
Y4 SMF-GDL APR 0.1>0.4 MAY 0.2>0.4 JUN 0.1>0.4 JUL 0.1>0.4 AUG 0.2>0.5 SEP 0.1>0.4 OCT 0.1>0.5

*YJ MWA-HOX MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 0.1>0 AUG 0.2>0 SEP 0.1>0 OCT 0.1>0

*ZK ELY-LAS APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.9>0 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.9>0
*ZK FMN-PGA APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*ZK LAS-PGA APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: usairways85
Posted 2013-02-27 07:00:54 and read 10158 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**DL ANC-SEA JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

So that makes AS, UA, B6, DL all on this route...anyone else?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: evanbu
Posted 2013-02-27 07:10:11 and read 10053 times.

It's great to see the expansion at DIK. Business is booming!

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-02-27 07:15:24 and read 10026 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-YQB JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

This was a late re-instatement of a route that they were not initially planning to operate thus summer.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL LAX-CVG JUL 3>1.8 AUG 3>1.8 SEP 3>1.9 OCT 3>1.9

This is a reduction from past years, where it was typically been 3x/day in the summer.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-02-27 07:19:10 and read 9983 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL SLC-ONT JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5

even a frequecny increase is good news for ONT these days. Anyone know if they downsized some planes to do this or is this a true add?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-27 07:24:41 and read 9921 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*Y4 DEN-MEX MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0
Y4 LAS-GDL APR 1.3>1.1 MAY 1.3>1.0 JUN 1.3>1.0 JUL 1.3>1.0 AUG 1.3>1.0 SEP 1.3>1.0 OCT 1.3>1.0
Y4 LAS-MEX APR 2>1.5 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
Y4 LAX-MEX APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.5 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
Y4 LAX-MLM APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7
Y4 MCO-MEX APR 0.4>0.2 MAY 0.4>0.2 JUN 0.5>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
*Y4 OAK-MEX APR 0.6>0.2 MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.5>0
*Y4 SAN-GDL APR 0.5>0.1 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.5>0
Y4 SAN-MEX MAY 0.9>0.5 JUN 0.9>0.6 JUL 0.8>0.5 AUG 0.9>0.6 SEP 0.8>0.6 OCT 0.9>0.5
Y4 SMF-GDL APR 0.1>0.4 MAY 0.2>0.4 JUN 0.1>0.4 JUL 0.1>0.4 AUG 0.2>0.5 SEP 0.1>0.4 OCT 0.1>0.5

Are these numbers something that may be reversed next week (or two) as we've seen in some cases? All routes/frequencies reduced except for SMF-GDL, and DEN-MEX, OAK-MEX, and SAN-GDL cancelled for season.... or for good? And a bit puzzling with the DEN-MEX route..... they couldn't fill a couple of flights a week here..... were the Sat/Sun frequencies bad scheduling....?

 

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: redzeppelin
Posted 2013-02-27 07:29:50 and read 9895 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL SLC-SGU JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4

Is this related to OO adding a UAX CRJ on SGU-DEN? If they are flying to SGU at their own risk, I suppose that they can decide which livery they fly it with...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: rbgso
Posted 2013-02-27 07:50:18 and read 9749 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL CVG-GSO JUN 0.8>0.2 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.8>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.9>0

That really stinks, but not completely unexpected......

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2013-02-27 08:05:10 and read 9647 times.

Quoting rbgso (Reply 7):
That really stinks, but not completely unexpected......

That one was a staple for OH for the longest. When their flying wound down in ATL, pretty much the only destinations you'd see were CVG and GSO. It would usually be a CR7 and the a/c would be routed CVG-ATL-GSO-CVG.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-27 08:26:42 and read 9494 times.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 1):
So that makes AS, UA, B6, DL all on this route...anyone else?

It's interesting that DL is really attacking AS now.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 3):
This was a late re-instatement of a route that they were not initially planning to operate thus summer.

Interesting that in May the whole station closes. This is not a leisure market is it? Sounds like the move to JFK has failed like SNA did. YQB is probably writing a check to keep it alive for Summer.

Quoting point2point (Reply 5):
Are these numbers something that may be reversed next week (or two) as we've seen in some cases?

Of course...that is their modus operandi it appears.

Quoting point2point (Reply 5):
And a bit puzzling with the DEN-MEX route

That route has been a challenge for everybody who has tried it. There are a lot of Hispanics in DEN, but not from MEX area.

Quoting rbgso (Reply 7):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL CVG-GSO JUN 0.8>0.2 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.8>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.9>0
That really stinks, but not completely unexpected......
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 8):
That one was a staple for OH for the longest.

Everything that isn't NYC/LAX/etc. is going to fall one by one.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-02-27 08:36:26 and read 9419 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
It's interesting that DL is really attacking AS now.

I'm very very unconvinced DL is attacking AS, especially after that unity party or whatever a few months ago at SEA. And what, 1 DL SEA-ANC vs how many AS SEA-ANC? Now if AS starts trying to crush the single DL flights out of SEA or DL attacks AS' SEA-SLC by adding a bunch of capacity, you may be on to something.

But a few DL flights in an expanding SEA operation ain't the end of the world. It's not as if cities are purely O&D either... DL putting a flight through SEA isn't sucking a 757 worth of passengers away from AS. Some will be O&D but most will be connecting.

TL;DR I think people are freaking out about this. Could be wrong, but I remain unconvinced

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-27 08:51:09 and read 9337 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL MSP-ORD JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8

I remember when NW/UA/AA all ran hourly mainline in this market.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 6):
Is this related to OO adding a UAX CRJ on SGU-DEN? If they are flying to SGU at their own risk, I suppose that they can decide which livery they fly it with...

Not unless SLC-SGU is at risk also. DL tells OO where to fly unless it is at risk.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
It's interesting that DL is really attacking AS now.

I think youre over-reading. You have a tendency to do that. But I appreciate your weekly report.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-27 09:08:19 and read 9232 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
I'm very very unconvinced DL is attacking AS, especially after that unity party or whatever a few months ago at SEA.

I said the same thing in the SEA-LAS announcement thread, and was laughed at by another member who asked if I remembered high school and trying to get the attention of the pretty girl by throwing attention grabbers her way. Truly bizarre (especially if you read my signature line   ).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-02-27 09:13:01 and read 9205 times.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 6):

Is this related to OO adding a UAX CRJ on SGU-DEN? If they are flying to SGU at their own risk, I suppose that they can decide which livery they fly it with...

SGU is now all CRJ-200s so more seats. They use to fly much smaller planes into SGU so i think that might also be a large part of it. Even when they first introduced the CRJ to the new airport i dont think all the flights were . I think DEN is a natural though probably a good amount of demand if a non-stop exists and great connections East and on the way.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-27 09:15:41 and read 9193 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 11):

I think youre over-reading. You have a tendency to do that. But I appreciate your weekly report.

I disagree. DL is sending a not so subtle message that AS needs to choose DL or AA, or this SEA amuse bouche of DL capacity will become a full on onslaught.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: EWRandMDW
Posted 2013-02-27 09:19:38 and read 9158 times.

SQ EWR-SIN APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.9 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.8 AUG 1.0>0.9 SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.8

I thought this was going away! Did SQ have a change of heart?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-27 09:23:35 and read 9125 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 14):
I disagree. DL is sending a not so subtle message that AS needs to choose DL or AA, or this SEA amuse bouche of DL capacity will become a full on onslaught.

Does Sea-Tac have the gate space for DL's appetizer and entrée, let alone dessert?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: Polot
Posted 2013-02-27 09:25:11 and read 9103 times.

Quoting EWRandMDW (Reply 15):
I thought this was going away! Did SQ have a change of heart?

They are scheduled to end at the end of November.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-02-27 09:28:02 and read 9090 times.

[quote=usairways85,reply=1]So that makes AS, UA, B6, DL all on this route...anyone else?[/quote

Shouldn't that read:

ASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASAS, UAUA, B6, and DL?  

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: aerorobnz
Posted 2013-02-27 09:52:49 and read 8952 times.

The FJ frequencies and types will be quite variable until all the 332s arrive and the 744s go.

Quoting evanbu (Reply 2):
It's great to see the expansion at DIK. Business is booming!

Can't wait for flights to Big Delta Field,AK BIG-DIK..

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-02-27 09:59:56 and read 8918 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL CVG-GSO JUN 0.8>0.2 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.8>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.9>0
Quoting rbgso (Reply 7):
That really stinks, but not completely unexpected......

Well, there goes another    but yeah totally not unexpected.... its sad, such a large airfield is now a ghost town.

BUT with 748's  
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA CLE-PHX JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0.2

Doesn't US have a good handle on this route too?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: seatback
Posted 2013-02-27 10:12:46 and read 8859 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 14):
I disagree. DL is sending a not so subtle message that AS needs to choose DL or AA, or this SEA amuse bouche of DL capacity will become a full on onslaught.

I'm not sure what's going on, but if DL's picking a fight, AS could pull out of a partnership with DL and convince AA to build up SEA>Asia.

That would not bode well for DL, as most SEA flyers would pick their hometown airline and their partner.

Delta is sunk in SEA without AS.

[Edited 2013-02-27 10:18:25]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: threeifbyair
Posted 2013-02-27 10:15:38 and read 8845 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 16):
Does Sea-Tac have the gate space for DL's appetizer and entrée, let alone dessert?

On the other thread that was talking about this when it first came up, someone with knowledge of SEA operations said that DL will have access to several gates on B concourse that are being freed up with the movement of the legacy CO operations to A (to be consolidated with UA, which is moving from N). The South Satellite is pretty much jammed up at peak times.

The big markets out of SEA are all covered by AS. DL, even with these new flights, only hits a few of the largest domestic markets: LAX, LAS, ANC, NYC (JFK), and MSP. DTW is somewhat smaller, but it is now actually the only DL domestic monopoly route out of SEA except when MEM and CVG are operating.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-27 10:56:08 and read 8539 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
Quoting point2point (Reply 5):
And a bit puzzling with the DEN-MEX route

That route has been a challenge for everybody who has tried it. There are a lot of Hispanics in DEN, but not from MEX area.

Mexicans love skiing, especially in Colorado. It's a winter route. For example, MEX is the single largest feeder onto AA's MIAEGE flights. Likely nothing to do with Hispanics in Denver.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: jporterfi
Posted 2013-02-27 11:18:53 and read 8362 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA LAX-IPL APR 0.4>1.9

I'm intrigued by this increase. Any idea why UA is ramping up service to IPL? It seems strange, especially for an airport 120 miles (2 hours) from SAN, where UA has a decent operation.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: mpdpilot
Posted 2013-02-27 11:29:11 and read 8551 times.

I have said it in other threads and I will say it again. The way partnerships between domestic airlines work is that they operate on their own and if passengers decide to book codeshares they are welcome. If DL wants an additional SEA-ANC, they must add it themselves as it is illegal to work with AS to add another flight.

Quoting seatback (Reply 21):
I'm not sure what's going on, but if DL's picking a fight, AS could pull out of a partnership with DL and convince AA to build up SEA>Asia.

And this would be illegal too. AS can't just call AA and ask them to start operating flights to Asia. If they want to offer flights to Asia for their passengers, they can either stick with DL, find a new codeshare partner who operates the flights, or call Boeing/Airbus and order some 787/A330s.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
I'm very very unconvinced DL is attacking AS

I agree 100% with you. This is Delta the second largest carrier in SEA adding routes where they feel they are needed. THEIR ONLY OPTION, as asking AS to add a flight would be illegal.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-27 11:30:52 and read 8552 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
I'm very very unconvinced DL is attacking AS
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 11):

I think youre over-reading. You have a tendency to do that. But I appreciate your weekly report.

I said last week I was unconvinced unless they started adding routes from SEA against AS...and a week later they do that. I now believe. There is no reason to fly SEA-ANC. They have umpteen flights to code share on. The only reason to do it is to piss off AS. Plus, SEA-ANC is the classic retaliatory route against AS. Airlines have added it numerous times to make displeasure known...including B6 doing it. It's an easy retaliatory route because most airlines have planes sitting in SEA all night and it doesn't cost an airplane to send AS a "message". They all leave because the same thing always happens. AS owns the market and the interloper is reduced to selling garbage fares which AS restrictively matches and eventually the interloper leaves. Anyway, it does inflict some damage on AS. They have the most to lose with all that capacity. What % of the whole airline's ASMs is it? 20% probably.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 14):
I disagree. DL is sending a not so subtle message that AS needs to choose DL or AA, or this SEA amuse bouche of DL capacity will become a full on onslaught.

The question is what set this off. Judging from the initial build-up of AS routes from LAX it was related to AS tightening with AA, but it could also be SLC.

Quoting seatback (Reply 21):
I'm not sure what's going on, but if DL's picking a fight, AS could pull out of a partnership with DL and convince AA to build up SEA>Asia.

I'm not sure that is so easy and that might be more of what is going on. Maybe they can't pull out? The escape clause might be complicated.

Also, I think what is going on is tightly intertwined with the AA/US merger. That changes the dynamic for AS. Perhaps DL is betting that AA can't merge and also maintain the AS relationship, either because they are too big (DOJ/DOT could halt their relationship) or because now only one carrier can buy AS (AA is probably too big to bid on them and out of play for years at a minimum). Perhaps they think they can pressure AS out of the deal with AA because of the merger. That deal predated the merger announcement so we don't know if Parker supports it. Even if he does, there might be the opportunity for AS to escape it. Mergers are probably a reason to break the alliance. DL might be giving AS a reason to drop that deal.

Having said all of that...I expect we are going to see something big out of Delta. They are now #3 again and the options to move back up are to buy AS and/or try to buy pieces of AA when the court allows outside reorg plans. I used to think HA was an option for DL, but I've been convinced that HNL-USA does not have the yield to work with Delta's business plan/costs. There is also B6, but one would hope that DOJ would now allow DL to buy B6. They could buy VX, but they are too small to matter much.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-27 11:34:01 and read 8631 times.

Enliria you missed the new LAX-SJO flight from Dec.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-27 11:48:02 and read 8559 times.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 24):
I'm intrigued by this increase. Any idea why UA is ramping up service to IPL? It seems strange, especially for an airport 120 miles (2 hours) from SAN, where UA has a decent operation.

They are not ramping up per se.

UA is ending service to Imperial. Originally service was ending in March. However, the replacement carrier (I believe Seaport) won't be ready in March, so UA is obligated to continue Imperial until Seaport is ready, which should be May.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-27 11:50:56 and read 8536 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
Having said all of that...I expect we are going to see something big out of Delta. They are now #3 again and the options to move back up are to buy AS and/or try to buy pieces of AA when the court allows outside reorg plans. I used to think HA was an option for DL, but I've been convinced that HNL-USA does not have the yield to work with Delta's business plan/costs. There is also B6, but one would hope that DOJ would now allow DL to buy B6. They could buy VX, but they are too small to matter much.

There are no options. After US/AA is done, so are mergers. DOT/DOJ won't allow it, IMO.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-02-27 11:54:39 and read 8466 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Now I think they really are upset with AS.
**DL ANC-SEA JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

They are playing with fire aren't they? AS has someone else to go to, and without the AS feed, SEA withers away for DL. DL doesn't have the planes to suddenly flip a switch and have a hub at SEA.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Looks like a trade. PHX was year round before? Wonder if it will come back.
*UA CLE-PDX JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
*UA CLE-PHX JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0.2

Maybe CLE-PHX won't work without the codeshare feed on the PHX end, and UA is looking down the road. Further, if/when AA pares down PHX, it would make sense for many FF to flip to oneworld since Star will be an afterthought in the market, and a focus city is still better than a spoke.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA DEN-FLL AUG 0.9>0.3 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

FLL can't even support a single flight from the hub...sort of illustrates the difficulty in establishing a focus city at FLL. Many have tried, few have succeeded.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
But a few DL flights in an expanding SEA operation ain't the end of the world. It's not as if cities are purely O&D either... DL putting a flight through SEA isn't sucking a 757 worth of passengers away from AS. Some will be O&D but most will be connecting.

Most will be connecting, but most of those will be connecting on AS metal. Seems like a spiteful move by DL.

Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
I used to think HA was an option for DL, but I've been convinced that HNL-USA does not have the yield to work with Delta's business plan/costs.

Even if HNL-mainland doesn't, what about the constantly growing network to Asia and Australia et al? Minus a hub at SEA, maybe HNL could be a sort of quasi-hub for transpac connections. I don't know the economics of the issue so please correct me if this is unfeasible. I've always thought HA would be an interesting merger partner for someone, and this was even before their recent rapid longhaul expansions. DL already has NRT obviously, but I'm not really clear on if they even really want or need the hub there if they can overfly it to the major east Asian markets.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-02-27 12:18:05 and read 8252 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*ZK ELY-LAS APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.9>0 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.9>0
*ZK FMN-PGA APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*ZK LAS-PGA APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

Here's a little more detail on this....

Ely ends as of 3/31...perhaps the most lightly-used EAS city is being dropped. Ely is really remote at about 3.75 hours to SLC or LAS. But for various reasons, nobody much used this.

Page continues to have service to Denver, Phoenix, and (1-stop) Los Angeles.

Las Vegas appears to be closing for ZK. The only other LAS route was a few days per week to Merced and on to Visalia, and that does not show as saleable beyond 3/31.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2013-02-27 12:49:50 and read 8035 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 31):
Las Vegas appears to be closing for ZK. The only other LAS route was a few days per week to Merced and on to Visalia, and that does not show as saleable beyond 3/31.

The Merced and Visalia to LAS has been cancelled. ZK claims the loss of revenue from ELY-LAS is causing the drop of the other flights also.
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/2013/02...erced-airport-ends-flights-to.html

But Merced and Visalia to LAX will continue.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: rbgso
Posted 2013-02-27 12:58:57 and read 7966 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 29):
There are no options. After US/AA is done, so are mergers. DOT/DOJ won't allow it, IMO.

I don't disagree, however I think HA and AS would make an interesting combination. Don't know if it would get DOT approval, though.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-02-27 13:11:43 and read 7871 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
I'm very very unconvinced DL is attacking AS, especially after that unity party or whatever a few months ago at SEA.

I said the same thing in the SEA-LAS announcement thread, and was laughed at by another

Yes and we could be completely wrong for all I know, but I see a.net going down the slippery slope like they always do and speculate for a few days and then all of the sudden it's FACT that DL is going for AS. The stupid rumors of DL merging with every carrier in the sun leads posters to say that DL is "creepin around and trying to buy everyone" when the only basis for that is them exploring buying MIA and the dozens of baseless rumors on this site

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):
Truly bizarre (especially if you read my signature line   ).

lol

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 14):
DL is sending a not so subtle message that AS needs to choose DL or AA, or this SEA amuse bouche of DL capacity will become a full on onslaught.

AS is choosing DL... in SEA. They are not in the same alliance, they have no JV, they aren't merged. What they do in LAX is a whole other world. Why would DL get all poudy at what's happening in LAX and burn their bridges in SEA where they have a great partnership and an extremely uphill battle to fight at AS' huge SEA hub?

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
ASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASASAS, UAUA, B6, and DL?  

Exactly, it's not like DL is starting 6 flights. They probably have more passengers headed that way than the codeshare can handle, maybe they want brand recognition. What they aren't doing is trying to force AS off this route or go to war with them. Come on, if DL was trying to go to war they wouldn't do such a pathetic attempt, they'd be rolling out dozens of flights I would think

Quoting seatback (Reply 21):
Delta is sunk in SEA without AS.

   DL's international flights would be in huge trouble without AS' feed. Developing feed overnight would be tough, you don't see hubs spring up organically. DL @ SEA would be like PanAm, international and long haul routes with little domestic feed

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 25):
If DL wants an additional SEA-ANC, they must add it themselves as it is illegal to work with AS to add another flight.

   What is DL to do if they want an extra flight? They gotta add it themselves. I doubt AS will even notice an extra 757 on the route

Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
There is no reason to fly SEA-ANC. They have umpteen flights to code share on. The only reason to do it is to piss off AS

   No reason? Can you back that up? How many seats does DL codeshare with AS on SEA-ANC? How many passengers are booking XXX-SEA-ANC on DL? What do you expect DL to do, tell AS they need more SEA-ANC? **ILLEGAL** !!!



DL is growing at SEA. They are going to generate more traffic and they're gonna need to add flights if AS isn't adding quickly enough. DL going to war with AS all of the sudden is like the US military opening a new base in Egypt with a battalion of soldiers and then going to war with Egypt... they'd get their asses handed to them

Now if we see AS start dumping capacity on any route DL opens, maybe we'll see some tension. Maybe DL would back off, indirectly coordinating schedules since talking to each other would be illegal. Who knows, I just think saying they're at war is almost conspiratorial... we only have a little evidence and a TON of speculation, something this site is notorious for

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-02-27 13:55:03 and read 7577 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 32):
The Merced and Visalia to LAS has been cancelled. ZK claims the loss of revenue from ELY-LAS is causing the drop of the other flights also.
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/2013/02...erced-airport-ends-flights-to.html

But Merced and Visalia to LAX will continue.

Thanks...I should have been clearer that MCE and VIS were not being dropped...just the handful of Vegas flights per week.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: freakyrat
Posted 2013-02-27 14:00:07 and read 7530 times.

DL also returns the morning flight from SBN-MSP.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-27 14:22:21 and read 7410 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 34):
we could be completely wrong for all I know, but I see a.net going down the slippery slope like they always do and speculate for a few days and then all of the sudden it's FACT that DL is going for AS.
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 34):
DL is growing at SEA. They are going to generate more traffic and they're gonna need to add flights if AS isn't adding quickly enough.

   I don't understand why folks think that adding a few strategic flights—as DL did when they ran the Asian hub at PDX, to add feed where they believe it's lacking—is tantamount to bringing a fight to AS' doorstep.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 27):
Enliria you missed the new LAX-SJO flight from Dec.

That'll probably show up on next week's OAG feed.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-27 14:30:08 and read 7348 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 14):
I disagree. DL is sending a not so subtle message that AS needs to choose DL or AA, or this SEA amuse bouche of DL capacity will become a full on onslaught.

I don't think that is what is happening. Actually the message is quite subtle. A not so subtle message would be flying SEA-BOS/ORD or DFW.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-02-27 14:31:36 and read 7340 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
Having said all of that...I expect we are going to see something big out of Delta. They are now #3 again and the options to move back up are to buy AS and/or try to buy pieces of AA when the court allows outside reorg plans. I used to think HA was an option for DL, but I've been convinced that HNL-USA does not have the yield to work with Delta's business plan/costs. There is also B6, but one would hope that DOJ would now allow DL to buy B6. They could buy VX, but they are too small to matter much.



Keep in mind that big things can be accomplished without a merger or buyout of another carrier.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-02-27 14:36:09 and read 7318 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 39):
Keep in mind that big things can be accomplished without a merger or buyout of another carrier.

We also need to keep in mind that being the biggest doesn't matter. I don't see WN, AS, or even G4 plotting to become the largest. I think DL would be smart to work on maximizing their profits rather than getting points for being the largest. Wasn't PanAm the largest airline? Remember guys, size doesn't matter, money does  

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: panamair
Posted 2013-02-27 14:45:35 and read 7293 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 40):
Wasn't PanAm the largest airline?

Pan Am was never the largest US airline - United, American, and Delta were the Top 3 for the longest time...Pan Am was something like #5 or #6...

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: TWA902fly
Posted 2013-02-27 15:38:52 and read 6992 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DIK-MSP JUN 0>1.4 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2
Quoting evanbu (Reply 2):

It's great to see the expansion at DIK. Business is booming!

While the oil boom is causing a boom in all kinds of business, I can't help but think DL is being reactionary in these markets. a year ago ISN and DIK were ZK-only airports. UA announced 2x/day DEN-ISN, and a few days later DL announced MSP-ISN.

Now UA announces DEN-DIK 2x/day, and about 10 days later DL comes back with MSP-DIK. Even with the oil boom, it seems this may be a somewhat shortsighted response instead of any real planning on DL's part. I could see both of them staying if ZK tones down it's (very unreliable) service, however.

'902

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-27 15:45:19 and read 6996 times.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 42):
While the oil boom is causing a boom in all kinds of business, I can't help but think DL is being reactionary in these markets. a year ago ISN and DIK were ZK-only airports. UA announced 2x/day DEN-ISN, and a few days later DL announced MSP-ISN.

I think Delta had these on their radar. Delta's Planning dept isn't that reactive but more proactive. They probably had these markets planned and might have moved up the start date is all.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-27 15:54:37 and read 6935 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 29):
After US/AA is done, so are mergers. DOT/DOJ won't allow it, IMO.

I agree, save smaller deals like if someone wanted to takeover VX (unlikely) or if say B6 wanted to merge with NK.

Quoting panamair (Reply 41):
Pan Am was never the largest US airline - United, American, and Delta were the Top 3 for the longest time...Pan Am was something like #5 or #6...

Eastern was the largest US airline.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-02-27 16:05:30 and read 6874 times.

There's been discussion about EA as the largest U.S. airline. In the early 70s that didn't appear to be so.

In 1970 Who Was The Top 4 Largest Airlines (by 747400sp Feb 7 2009 in Aviation Polls)

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: prost
Posted 2013-02-27 16:57:04 and read 6609 times.

Regarding rhe AS/DL codeshare relationship, and whether it has devolved into a spat, I ask only this:

Most airlines in the US are operating very lean, with very high load factors and not a lot of slack in their fleets. I believe the carriers with the most slack/ability to add flights are WN(if they chose to operate a large set of redeye flights only) VX, and I believe, DL. Since AS has successfully ramped up their Hawaiian operations, they are firing on all cylinders, and utilizing their assets to their fullest abilities, generating handsome profits to their investors. I imagine that DL sees the bookings for their customers, and there are some sub-optimal connections being generated with their code share partner AS, which AS is unable to handle, so DL made the decision to utilize their assets in these markets.

I personally don't feel this is a ploy to make AS choose between AA or DL, it is just DL taking care of their own customers.

I also believe that in the near future (6-36 months) there will be opportunities for AS as AA and US sort out their merger.

I've never heard what Mr. Parker thinks about the AA/AS codeshare, so that might be an interesting dynamic to see play out.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-27 17:10:23 and read 6524 times.

Quoting prost (Reply 46):
Regarding rhe AS/DL codeshare relationship, and whether it has devolved into a spat, I ask only this:

Perhaps any further discussion of DL messing with AS could be continued in this still open thread where this issue was hashed over just recently:

Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble (by jetjack74 Feb 16 2013 in Civil Aviation)

It'd allow this thread to continue to be on the topic of the OAG changes and not get locked.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-27 20:48:09 and read 5667 times.

Quoting seatback (Reply 21):
That would not bode well for DL, as most SEA flyers would pick their hometown airline and their partner.

I'm not so sure. DL has at least two hubs worth of capacity (CVG/MEM) that could appear in SEA quickly, and covering the major trunk routes wouldn't be difficult for DL, plus they'd have the network benefit of covering the entire US as well as numerous nonstops to Europe and Asia. I really don't think AS has any more leverage than DL here--they could both make life really unpleasant for the other quickly.

Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
Judging from the initial build-up of AS routes from LAX it was related to AS tightening with AA, but it could also be SLC

I think it's safe to say it's the AA relationship--no one cares about SLC, but DL's entire West Coast strategy is based on a partner who turned around and doubled down with a major competitor.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 34):
Why would DL get all poudy at what's happening in LAX and burn their bridges in SEA where they have a great partnership and an extremely uphill battle to fight at AS' huge SEA hub?

In the long run DL needs to control the flow that supports its SEA transpacific flying; right now most of that flow is on a carrier that is in deep with AA. I don't think this setup can last for long--something is going to have to change: either AS dumps AA, DL builds up SEA further and dumps AS, or DL dumps SEA transpacific.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: tys777
Posted 2013-02-27 20:54:23 and read 5615 times.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 42):
While the oil boom is causing a boom in all kinds of business, I can't help but think DL is being reactionary in these markets. a year ago ISN and DIK were ZK-only airports. UA announced 2x/day DEN-ISN, and a few days later DL announced MSP-ISN.

Now UA announces DEN-DIK 2x/day, and about 10 days later DL comes back with MSP-DIK. Even with the oil boom, it seems this may be a somewhat shortsighted response instead of any real planning on DL's part. I could see both of them staying if ZK tones down it's (very unreliable) service, however.

'902

The thing to remember with ISN is that they needed a waiver to operate a CRJ into the airport as the ramp wasn't designed to handle that kind of weight. They are actually discussing building a whole new airport outside of town to meet the demands.

It wouldn't surprise me if there was a similar issue in DIK that required a waiver and why the announcements are made at about the same time.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-02-27 21:12:57 and read 5553 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 48):
I'm not so sure. DL has at least two hubs worth of capacity (CVG/MEM) that could appear in SEA quickly

Yeah I'm sure DL could, and I'm sure DL would bleed money faster than Virgin America. Why don't hubs just appear out of the blue? Do you even know the loyalty levels of AS at SEA? Brand recognition and loyalty takes a long time. How could DL all of the sudden mount a successful attack against AS in ?

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 48):
right now most of that flow is on a carrier that is in deep with AA

What, AS has to pick one partner? Why isn't AA getting its panties in a wad over DL partnering with AS at SEA? Is impossible or inconceivable that AS is in bed with AA in LAX and in bed with DL at SEA? How does that conflict at all? DL decides they can't get AS at both LAX and SEA so they're just gonna engage in a pointless war against AS at SEA? Does AS' relationship with AA at LAX mean that AS is eventually gonna dump DL at SEA and have AA suddenly appear there? If so, why would DL engage in a war now and not better their position at SEA first?

Yes, I can see a scenario where DL is all of the sudden, out of the blue, engaging in a turf war with a much more powerful AS at SEA even though they just announced an expanded partnership, and even though they have extra aircraft at CVG and MEM that they aren't using. I just see a million holes in the theory, just like the truther movement.

If you are gonna believe DL and AS are fighting, ok, but don't make absolute statements that aren't proven fact or aren't the only options, ie:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 48):
either AS dumps AA, DL builds up SEA further and dumps AS, or DL dumps SEA transpacific.

not the only options

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
DL is really attacking AS now.

not proven, not even really supported IMO

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-02-27 21:38:55 and read 5460 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 48):

In the long run DL needs to control the flow that supports its SEA transpacific flying; right now most of that flow is on a carrier that is in deep with AA. I don't think this setup can last for long--something is going to have to change: either AS dumps AA, DL builds up SEA further and dumps AS, or DL dumps SEA transpacific.

Why? DL feeds a variety of carriers in their alliance that compete with one another. This is really quite similar in that AA does little with AS in SEA relative to DL/AS. The only thing I can see is if DL is trying to coerce AS away from AA just to spite AA. I suppose it's possible, but I hope not. It'll suck having SEA flooded with the ex-CVG and ex-MEM CRJ's.

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-27 22:27:00 and read 5348 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
but it could also be SLC.

unlikely. That was annouced the same day(or around abouts) as the last lovely PR from DL/AS.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 27):
Enliria you missed the new LAX-SJO flight from Dec.

Starting in June now per the timetable. Edit, July 1 start date. Sorry

Quoting prost (Reply 46):
and I believe, DL.

Delta has a good bit of slack in the fleet. (even more so once mods are done) Plus they have said they can flex the fleet up with the 717/739 orders. (also they still have ability to order 30 more 76 seaters under the current section 1 of the DALPA contract)

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 48):
In the long run DL needs to control the flow that supports its SEA transpacific flying; right now most of that flow is on a carrier that is in deep with AA. I don't think this setup can last for long--something is going to have to change: either AS dumps AA, DL builds up SEA further and dumps AS, or DL dumps SEA transpacific.

Agreed. Very unlikely its plan C.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
Yeah I'm sure DL could, and I'm sure DL would bleed money faster than Virgin America.

You don't know that. Delta is doing a pretty good job of building a nice network out of LA. The biggest issue in SEA for Delta is space. Delta could set up a smallish hub at SEA, hitting the major markets and some regional flying from OO and likely be alright.

but i still think a merger with AS(and not a takeover) is what is going to happen. With no issues from Washington.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
What, AS has to pick one partner?

In Delta's eyes possibly

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 51):
DL feeds a variety of carriers in their alliance that compete with one another.

Not even close to the level that AS feeds DL. Think about it this way, Take the AF hub at CDG, then take all the shorthaul flying and have Delta do all the shorthaul flying. Oh and take them out of Skyteam and the JV, just a codeshare.

Oh and they have just as strong of a codeshare with BA.
Only then are you in the same ball park. If AF/KL lost Delta tomorrow, it would hurt, but most of the capacity and most of the markets that AF/KL fly to would stay the same. If Delta lost AS tomorrow, it would take solidly profitable SEA station and put it very far in the red for Delta.

[Edited 2013-02-27 22:28:27]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-02-27 22:33:48 and read 5319 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):
I said the same thing in the SEA-LAS announcement thread, and was laughed at by another member
Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 25):

I agree 100% with you. This is Delta the second largest carrier in SEA adding routes where they feel they are needed. THEIR ONLY OPTION, as asking AS to add a flight would be illegal

For what it is worth, I have been saying the exact same thing as well, I have no reason to believe that the CEO's of both AS & DL show up in Seattle using a DL 744 and a bunch of AS/DL employees as a background, to announce a stronger partnership in SEA, just to toss it away a few months later. If AA/AS was an issue to DL, that would have been worked out long before DL shows up in SEA with a CEO and a 744.

And yes signaling to another carrier is illegal, and should be, if it was not we would have just one mega carrier running the show, from behind the scenes, good Lord people, this is not that hard, DL needs to control some seats in some key markets, running some otherwise RON'd aircraft to a few destinations is no biggie. Also the cargo and mail alone will likely cover much of the cost of running a SEA-ANC-SEA flight, DL doesn't want AS's passengers, they are likely taking the largest cargo loads of each day.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 34):
DL's international flights would be in huge trouble without AS' feed. Developing feed overnight would be tough, you don't see hubs spring up organically.

Another correct observation, any carrier really set on hitting AS, would not be putting so much effort into overseas flights, as they would starting more domestic flights. If DL wants to hit AS hard, bring half those 717's and base them in SEA and run them against AS into SAN, PHX, DEN, MCI, PDX, SFO, SJC, OAK, etc...   

And for those who liken this SEA build up to the DL PDX hub, at it's peak DL had domestic connections to SEA, BOI, SLC, SFO, LAX, LAS, DFW, ATL, CVG, JFK, BOS

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-02-28 04:56:45 and read 4853 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 53):
Another correct observation, any carrier really set on hitting AS, would not be putting so much effort into overseas flights, as they would starting more domestic flights. If DL wants to hit AS hard, bring half those 717's and base them in SEA and run them against AS into SAN, PHX, DEN, MCI, PDX, SFO, SJC, OAK, etc...

Which is completely unfeasible and would not enable them to rebalance their core network out of ATL, DTW, MSP with the pending reduction of 50 seat flight.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-28 06:30:25 and read 4568 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 27):
Enliria you missed the new LAX-SJO flight from Dec.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report.

If it starts in December it is outside the report window. If it is this Summer I can only assume it will show up at some point as long as it has enough frequency to meet the minimum filter.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 29):
There are no options. After US/AA is done, so are mergers. DOT/DOJ won't allow it, IMO.

I hope you are right, but I suspect you aren't.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 30):
AS has someone else to go to,

Do they? Is the DOT going to allow the largest airline in LAX (AA/US) also have a relationship with AS? Is DL pressuring AS to bail on that deal thinking it's going to be disallowed anyway? Something is clearly going on.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 30):
FLL can't even support a single flight from the hub...sort of illustrates the difficulty in establishing a focus city at FLL. Many have tried, few have succeeded.

UA has been in and out of this market. I'm more interested in what happens to their $20 million rent abatement in DEN with DEN-NRT not starting.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 30):

Even if HNL-mainland doesn't, what about the constantly growing network to Asia and Australia et al?

But you can't have half a hub. A lot of the non-Japan stuff won't work without the mainland feed. I think with higher cost it all fails.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 31):
perhaps the most lightly-used EAS city is being dropped

The taxpayers of the USA applaud.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 34):
What do you expect DL to do, tell AS they need more SEA-ANC? **ILLEGAL** !!!

I assume you jest, AS has tons of seats on SEA-ANC. It's not a block arrangement, it's a free-sale. DL has as much access to the inventory as AS does. DL only code shares on SIXTEEN AS roundtrips. :p Lack of seats is a hilarious reason...

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 48):
Quoting enilria (Reply 26):
Judging from the initial build-up of AS routes from LAX it was related to AS tightening with AA, but it could also be SLC

I think it's safe to say it's the AA relationship--no one cares about SLC, but DL's entire West Coast strategy is based on a partner who turned around and doubled down with a major competitor.

Probably so. Three things happened. a) AS added SLC, b) AS announced the AA deal, and c) AA-US merged. It is most likely a mixture of B and C.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
DL is really attacking AS now.

not proven, not even really supported IMO

They've added 6 AS overlapping routes in three weeks. If you choose to think that is a coincidence then there is no point discussing it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: md3
Posted 2013-02-28 07:04:55 and read 4497 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 11):
I think youre over-reading. You have a tendency to do that. But I appreciate your weekly report.

  

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
I assume you jest, AS has tons of seats on SEA-ANC. It's not a block arrangement, it's a free-sale. DL has as much access to the inventory as AS does. DL only code shares on SIXTEEN AS roundtrips. :p Lack of seats is a hilarious reason...

The problem with Delta sending their customers on any of those 16 AS dailies is, Delta then has to pay out AS for those seats they sold. This isn't a JV so if DL is sending enough passengers daily onto the 16 AS codeshare options, why wouldn't they try to profitably operate a single frequency of their own and KEEP the cash?

I don't see this as being any different than AS starting a single/double frequency daily into places like SLC/MSP/ATL/DFW/ORD. Having your own metal enables you to control more of your revenue. Keeping the codeshares operated by your partner then allows DL customers to still have flexibility in finding their ideal itinerary and staying partly on Delta.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-02-28 07:43:12 and read 4419 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
Do you even know the loyalty levels of AS at SEA? Brand recognition and loyalty takes a long time. How could DL all of the sudden mount a successful attack against AS in ?

I think the loyalty is a little over stated--it's probably more due to AS' network from SEA and that they're somewhat low cost and run an excellent operation. If DL did the same (which they have been lately) and added in the rest of the country as well as major international destinations, that's a pretty strong offering.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
AS has to pick one partner?

AS doesn't have to do anything--I think it's clear that DL *wants* them to pick one partner.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
not the only options

Such as?

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 51):
DL feeds a variety of carriers in their alliance that compete with one another

There's nothing quite like this anywhere in the world--DL's long term international expansion at SEA is based in large part on a carrier whose pricing and capacity they can not control, and who recently solidified a major agreement with a primary competitor.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
They've added 6 AS overlapping routes in three weeks. If you choose to think that is a coincidence then there is no point discussing it.

  

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-02-28 08:55:14 and read 4301 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 43):
I think Delta had these on their radar. Delta's Planning dept isn't that reactive but more proactive. They probably had these markets planned and might have moved up the start date is all.

I'm glad someone finally pointed that out! We always see talk of their "dartboard" strategy and the like, but they clearly have a plan they work from even if we can't always see it from an individual route announcement.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 44):
I agree, save smaller deals like if someone wanted to takeover VX (unlikely) or if say B6 wanted to merge with NK.

Taking over VX would be fun to watch - probably acceptable to the feds because it eat into two UA hubs in SFO and LAX and AA's West Coast bastion at LAX, but then again they they are losing money who would bother is another question. Unfortunately for them I'm not completely sure there is much value for a potential buyer when some of their key routes have up to 5 competitors and they don't seem to be making those losses up elsewhere in the network.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-02-28 09:08:28 and read 4272 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 52):
You don't know that. Delta is doing a pretty good job of building a nice network out of LA. The biggest issue in SEA for Delta is space. Delta could set up a smallish hub at SEA, hitting the major markets and some regional flying from OO and likely be alright.

Well you are right, I do not know if DL could be successful growing a hub basically overnight against a carrier already there, loved by the population. But that's just not really how hubs work, I mean I'm sure we could find examples in the past, but by and large, moving into other carriers hubs all of the sudden doesn't usually end well. I can with of WN doing it when they still had the "Southwest Effect" going for them, but DL hardly has a huge cost advantage over a non-struggling AS

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 52):
but i still think a merger with AS(and not a takeover) is what is going to happen. With no issues from Washington.

Issues from AA though. Honestly, that has been my opinion for years--AS is getting in bed with DL and AA to prevent (or trying to prevent) one of the carriers from taking over AS. DL would be pissed to see their SEA partner turn into AA, and AA would be pissed to see their LAX partner turn into DL

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
Is DL pressuring AS to bail on that deal thinking it's going to be disallowed anyway? Something is clearly going on.

I'm sure DL is trying to woo AS over from AA, I think they've been doing that for a while. I just don't buy the warring theory

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
DL has as much access to the inventory as AS does.

Um, they do? I'm not a codeshare expert, but I was under the impression that each AS flight had a set number of seats. DL can't simply fill up an entire AS plane if they needed to. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's as easy as you say it is

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
They've added 6 AS overlapping routes in three weeks. If you choose to think that is a coincidence then there is no point discussing it.

No, they are adding SEA flights, clearly. What I don't see as coincidence is AS and DL making that big announcement and DL adding SEA flights... they are related I would wager

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 57):
I think the loyalty is a little over stated--it's probably more due to AS' network from SEA and that they're somewhat low cost and run an excellent operation. If DL did the same (which they have been lately) and added in the rest of the country as well as major international destinations, that's a pretty strong offering.

Well in that boat I also meant brand and recognition. That's why carriers often announce routes in advance and it sometimes takes a while for a route to pick up. But also, AS does seem to have a really good (above average) loyalty so I wouldn't discount that.

It just goes back to the growing hubs overnight against an entrenched carrier. You just don't really see that too often. I don't think it's impossible, but I don't think it's as easy as taking some extra CRJs from MEM and CVG and get $$$$$$

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 57):
AS doesn't have to do anything--I think it's clear that DL *wants* them to pick one partner.

Um, well yeah. I'm sure AA wants them to pick just them. Not a groundbreaking statement, just common sense. I don't think DL wants it so badly that they're gonna go to war with AS at SEA over it

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 57):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
not the only options

Such as?

Uh, DL will partner with AS at SEA and AA will partner with AS at LAX. That is basically what is going on now, and it isn't some mind-boggling set up. I don't know why you assume AA is gonna get shafted, DL will get shafted, or DL is gonna dump their SEA network


Edit: I'll add that you guys could be completely right and I could be completely wrong. I just think it's premature to say that DL is gunning for AS, or narrow down future options to A, B, or C when there is obviously a D (and probably E and F etc.) This site, as we know, is terrible with spreading disinformation so making absolute statements only confuses people and that's how you get posts that state outrageous things like "DL is trying so hard to merge with anyone, they tried to buy HA, AA, B6, VX, AS" etc (I've seen people mention each one of them as fact or almost-fact when the evidence was shoddy, misunderstood, or completely not there, formed after seeing posters on this site proclaim opinions as fact)

[Edited 2013-02-28 09:12:32]

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-02-28 09:15:24 and read 4256 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 57):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 50):
AS has to pick one partner?

AS doesn't have to do anything--I think it's clear that DL *wants* them to pick one partner.

AS picking one partner will weaken AS. I'm sure DL knows that. Part of AS's success is their lucrative code sharing with both AA and DL and their respective partners (KL, AF, QF, LA, CX, etc). You take one side of that out of AS's equation and AS is weakened. Is this really what DL wants?

Further, is DL clueless enough to expect AS to make a decision that would weaken themselves?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-02-28 10:05:58 and read 4153 times.

Quoting md3 (Reply 56):
The problem with Delta sending their customers on any of those 16 AS dailies is, Delta then has to pay out AS for those seats they sold.

Well, they have to prorate the ticket if that is what you mean, but this assumes DL can make a profit flying SEA-ANC as a red-eye. It won't. Nobody has ever had any staying power on that route against AS.

Quoting md3 (Reply 56):
This isn't a JV so if DL is sending enough passengers daily onto the 16 AS codeshare options, why wouldn't they try to profitably operate a single frequency of their own and KEEP the cash?

Well, let's see. The ANC flight arrives in SEA at 5am. The first Asia departure is at 1205 to KIX. That's only a 425 minute connect, LOL. The other way it connects to HND, but it is a 10 hour connect to the next Asia. It can connect to the Delta hubs most of which have non-stop ANC in the Summer and are full to SEA in the Summer anyway, so that is pointless. It has a bad 5 hour one-way connect to AMS. So basically, this will take zero passengers off the code share with AS.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
DL has as much access to the inventory as AS does.

Um, they do? I'm not a codeshare expert, but I was under the impression that each AS flight had a set number of seats. DL can't simply fill up an entire AS plane if they needed to. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's as easy as you say it is

Nope, it's just free-sell inventory like anything else. It is bucketed into their normal inventory structure. All code shares work like that unless they are being done manually.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 60):
AS picking one partner will weaken AS. I'm sure DL knows that.

And that is the goal isn't it. They want AS to themselves.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 60):
Further, is DL clueless enough to expect AS to make a decision that would weaken themselves?

I'm sure they are arguing/bullying that AA/US will not be allowed to also have AS at LAX since they will be the #1 carrier in LAX.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: FWAERJ
Posted 2013-02-28 10:17:56 and read 4130 times.

Quoting freakyrat (Reply 36):
DL also returns the morning flight from SBN-MSP.

FWA-MSP resumes on the same day (3/2) as well after a seasonal suspension, replacing one of the five FWA-DTW flights. FWA-ATL remains 3x.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: N766UA
Posted 2013-02-28 14:25:31 and read 3946 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA CLE-PHX JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0.2

That makes no sense to me. It's always been year-round and they're the only airline flying the route. Why drop it for a seasonal trip to PDX?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-02-28 16:57:55 and read 3806 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 30): AS has someone else to go to,
Do they? Is the DOT going to allow the largest airline in LAX (AA/US) also have a relationship with AS? Is DL pressuring AS to bail on that deal thinking it's going to be disallowed anyway? Something is clearly going on.

I'm not clear on why you think AA+AS at LAX is a no-go but DL+AS is fine. If anything, I'd think the latter would have a far larger hub marketshare than the former.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
DL only code shares on SIXTEEN AS roundtrips. :p Lack of seats is a hilarious reason...

The SEA-ANC route is a very easy use of a RON aircraft that is coming in from LAS to SEA and has time to kill.

Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
They've added 6 AS overlapping routes in three weeks. If you choose to think that is a coincidence then there is no point discussing it.

Give me a domestic market that DL could add that WOULDN'T overlap with AS? If they are trying to provide feed to their flights in SEA, it's going to overlap with AS.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 57):
I think the loyalty is a little over stated--it's probably more due to AS' network from SEA and that they're somewhat low cost and run an excellent operation. If DL did the same (which they have been lately) and added in the rest of the country as well as major international destinations, that's a pretty strong offering.

The network, pricing, and schedule are what drive the loyalty. DL could certainly inflict some bottomline pain but I don't see them really challenging AS in the manner you suggest. In fact, while it would hurt AS, they could probably terminate their agreement with DL and increase domestic capacity to make up for it. I'm not suggesting that, but it could certainly be an outcome.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
I do not know if DL could be successful growing a hub basically overnight against a carrier already there, loved by the population.

I think it would be a challenge. I think DL has a strong following in SEA, too, but they'd have to do a lot of growth to give people like me the enticement to choose them. I can't remember the last time we flew someone other than WN or AS, primarily because DL, UA, HP/US, F9, etc all had higher fares and/or lousy schedules, usually both. Even if DL doubles their SEA schedule, they won't be offering nearly the options that AS offers, and WN gives a lot of one-stop options as well as about a dozen nonstop options.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 60):
You take one side of that out of AS's equation and AS is weakened. Is this really what DL wants?

If we're talking codeshare, I don't think DL cares one ice cube what AS is feeling. If we're talking takeover, then that'd be different. DL could be sending the signal to AS to play ball or get bought out, but I'm not sure if that's what's going on here at all.

Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
Nobody has ever had any staying power on that route against AS.

CO?

Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
I'm sure they are arguing/bullying that AA/US will not be allowed to also have AS at LAX since they will be the #1 carrier in LAX.

We've heard ad nauseum on this board about market concentration being the determinant factor in whether slots (for example) could be swapped/bought. Widget Heads are the primary espousers of this information, and I'm trusting that it's accurate.

Anyhow, from the info (some a year or two old) that I could find:

LAX

DL Share 12%
AS Share 5%
AAUS 15%

Total DL+AS: 17%
Total AA+AS: 20%

SEA

DL Share 11%
AS Share 49%
AA/US 7%

Total DL+AS: 60%
Total AA+AS: 56%

For Fun:

ATL

Total DL: 59%

DFW

Total AA: Post merger - 88%

So, at LAX, AA+AS+US would have a 20% marketshare, and that's too much? Yet, in SEA, DL+AS would have a 60% marketshare?

Ok......?

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2013-02-28 17:01:56 and read 3803 times.

I was going to stay out of this but I can't help myself.

Riddle me this...

-Was AS "attacking" Delta when they started direct service to ATL? Now, they're at 2x daily. One in the morning and one in the evening.
-Was AS "attacking" Delta when they started MSP-SEA?? Now, they're at 2x daily.

Oh and here's the kicker, Delta does not put their code on not one of AS's ATL/MSP-SEA flights but AS's code is still on all of Delta's flights to Washington and Oregon. This tells me that The two continue to coexist quite nicely. By Enilria's logic, AS shouldn't be flying the route themselves because there are so much options on Delta. Multiple dailies to SEA from both hubs on everything from 737s, 757s, and 767s. But something's telling me that DL simply cannot handle the traffic. Why can't it be the case with DL out of SEA??

Oh, and Delta is soooooo annoyed by this that AS uses B31 every single day in ATL. All while Delta does not codeshare on the flight. They could have just as easily told AS to go talk to H-Jack and get a hold of a CUTE gate on D but they didn't' AS is the only airline to use a Delta leased gate in Atlanta. The only one. It's the same setup in MSP. The park at the same gate on the F.

Frankly, I think this whole thing is being completely overblown. The drama is here and only here. What AS did (and will continue to do) in Atlanta and Minneapolis was just business and Delta knows this. At the end of the day AS has to control their own interests to a certain extent. It's the same thing in SEA. It will be business as usual moving forward.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-28 17:33:31 and read 3749 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
Issues from AA though.

And just what are they going to do? cry? they darn sure aren't going to complain about consolidation. You won't find may in airline management that think the industry is good where it is. As fuel cost keep rising your going to be losing more of the few that do. The only thing major you would see from AA is them adding LAX-SEA/PDX. Other than that..... meh.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
I do not know if DL could be successful growing a hub basically overnight against a carrier already there, loved by the population

subjective. when it comes to corporate market the much larger Delta network would win people over, The same thing goes with FFs. I'm not saying delta could just walk right in, but I don't think it would be an epic failure.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
I mean I'm sure we could find examples in the past, but by and large, moving into other carriers hubs all of the sudden doesn't usually end well

I don't know, ask United how much fun they are having in Denver......

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
Um, they do? I'm not a codeshare expert, but I was under the impression that each AS flight had a set number of seats. DL can't simply fill up an entire AS plane if they needed to. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's as easy as you say it is

with 16 flights a day, Delta has no problem with finding seats. Again, LAX i get, I really do, ANC/LAS...meh not so much.)

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
What I don't see as coincidence is AS and DL making that big announcement and DL adding SEA flights... they are related I would wager

minus the fact that both SEA adds do very little for DL other than O/D traffic. LAS only really is set up to feed HND and maybe PEK. KIX,NRT,PVG all leave well before that flight gets there.
ANC....hub to hub route for AS that really adds nothing to Delta's network.....

If Delta added a few flights to say, PDX,LAS,SAN,SFO,SNA,PHX,DEN etc that all feed into its Asia bank? I don't think anyone would be questioning these moves at all. Outside of LA, nothing they have added so far helps Asia that much.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 60):
Is this really what DL wants?

Uh yeah. AS is helping compete against Delta.....without a merger....why would DL want AS to do it? (Delta doesn't care about AS's revenue, as long as AS has seats for Delta, and to a less extent SkyTeam, they aren't worried one bit about AS's bottom line.)

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 60):
Further, is DL clueless enough to expect AS to make a decision that would weaken themselves?

tell an offer is put on the table, via more codesharing or a merger type deal no one on anet knows what is best for AS shareholders. Like it or not, JP Morgan doesn't give a rats ass if its AS or DL, they just want the money.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
The SEA-ANC route is a very easy use of a RON aircraft that is coming in from LAS to SEA and has time to kill.

It is, but that doesn't mean it will make money. Delta would rather send that 757 to the hangar for an overnight check then fly SEA-ANC empty or full of junk fares. (unless....they are sending a sign. Seeing that ANC is not near the market to Asia that say, SFO or BOS or PHX is, my guess this isn't for Asian feed.)

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 65):

Oh, and Delta is soooooo annoyed by this that AS uses B31 every single day in ATL. All while Delta does not codeshare on the flight. They could have just as easily told AS to go talk to H-Jack and get a hold of a CUTE gate on D but they didn't' AS is the only airline to use a Delta leased gate in Atlanta. The only one. It's the same setup in MSP. The park at the same gate on the F.

Your talking getting a gun and shooting someone, we are saying maybe pushing your brother around a little bit.
Oh and just for the record, who else is Delta going to do that for? AS is really the only domestic partner they have.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-02-28 18:14:13 and read 3671 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
It is, but that doesn't mean it will make money.

Sigh. You're right. It's retaliation.  

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: flyiguy
Posted 2013-03-01 05:04:45 and read 3415 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 5):

WN and Y4 are no longer interlining now that WN has its own international capabilities ala FL. All the locations that were largely interlining points like DEN, OAK etc are being dropped or drastically reduced by Y4.


FLY

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-03-01 07:11:14 and read 3347 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
I'm not clear on why you think AA+AS at LAX is a no-go but DL+AS is fine. If anything, I'd think the latter would have a far larger hub marketshare than the former.

Nope. DL has less share than AA or AA/US.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
DL only code shares on SIXTEEN AS roundtrips. :p Lack of seats is a hilarious reason...

The SEA-ANC route is a very easy use of a RON aircraft that is coming in from LAS to SEA and has time to kill.

Or they could park it like all the other RONs in SEA.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):

Give me a domestic market that DL could add that WOULDN'T overlap with AS?

BOS-MSY, BOS-FLL, LAX-ORD,
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
Nobody has ever had any staying power on that route against AS.

CO?

Look at their numbers in DB1B, particularly the fare against AS.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
So, at LAX, AA+AS+US would have a 20% marketshare, and that's too much? Yet, in SEA, DL+AS would have a 60% marketshare?

Well, the DOJ/DOT is best at doing NOTHING, but the argument would be that AS is already #1 in SEA. DL is growing there, but has until recently no domestic non-hub service to speak of. Putting the two together, prior to the new overlap, changes nothing in a market already controlled mostly by one carrier. Additionally, the DL/AS relationship in SEA is already approved. All codeshares are supposed to be vetted prior to start, but it is done fairly quietly and I'm not sure if any domestic ones have ever been disallowed. I think NW/CO might have had carve outs.

LAX is a situation where according to my numbers, UA is presently #1. Allowing AA and US to merger then make them #1. Allowing, on top of that, a closer relationship with AS further accelerates the concentration of the market. Anyway, I'm simply saying that perhaps DL is trying to make the point that for many reasons AS should defect and fully align themselves to DL. Of course they are going to do that. It is in DL's best interest to do that.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-03-01 07:19:17 and read 3320 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Anyway, I'm simply saying that perhaps DL is trying to make the point that for many reasons AS should defect and fully align themselves to DL. Of course they are going to do that. It is in DL's best interest to do that.

Again, I don't get why it's in DL's best interest to greatly weaken a code-share partner. If AS drops their relationship with AA (and thus, BA, CX, and LA too) it takes away one part of AS's business success. That weakens AS's financial situation and possibly their ability to provide so much feed to DL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-03-01 09:53:56 and read 3227 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):I'm not clear on why you think AA+AS at LAX is a no-go but DL+AS is fine. If anything, I'd think the latter would have a far larger hub marketshare than the former.
Nope. DL has less share than AA or AA/US.

I'm referring to DL+AS in SEA vs AA+AS in LAX.

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):Quoting enilria (Reply 55):
DL only code shares on SIXTEEN AS roundtrips. :p Lack of seats is a hilarious reason...

The SEA-ANC route is a very easy use of a RON aircraft that is coming in from LAS to SEA and has time to kill.
Or they could park it like all the other RONs in SEA.

Or not. We can do this all day.....

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
Give me a domestic market that DL could add that WOULDN'T overlap with AS?
BOS-MSY, BOS-FLL, LAX-ORD,

Again, I was referring to SEA, which is what we were discussing.

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
Nobody has ever had any staying power on that route against AS.

CO?
Look at their numbers in DB1B, particularly the fare against AS.

Yet - drum roll - they kept flying it. I flew it back in the 90's on them. Something must have worked for them if they kept doing all these years.

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):

LAX is a situation where according to my numbers, UA is presently #1. Allowing AA and US to merger then make them #1. Allowing, on top of that, a closer relationship with AS further accelerates the concentration of the market

To 20%? That just doesn't seem like much in a fragmented market like LAX.

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Anyway, I'm simply saying that perhaps DL is trying to make the point that for many reasons AS should defect and fully align themselves to DL. Of course they are going to do that. It is in DL's best interest to do that.

I can accept that point of view. I don't know if that's what's going on, but I can see that happening.

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-03-01 12:40:59 and read 3120 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
CO?
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 71):
Yet - drum roll - they kept flying it. I flew it back in the 90's on them. Something must have worked for them if they kept doing all these years.

the Oil "thru traffic" from IAH helps UA(CO) on this route. It is good yielding. Any extra empty seats they fill in SEA is jsut gravy.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 70):
Again, I don't get why it's in DL's best interest to greatly weaken a code-share partner.

You have to keep the competition honest, even if "love" them.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-03-01 14:43:17 and read 3013 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 59):
Issues from AA though.

And just what are they going to do? cry?

Is this a serious question? I'm sure there are ways to prevent a merger and if AA tried to move on AS, I think DL would do something other than "cry"

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
I'm not saying delta could just walk right in, but I don't think it would be an epic failure.

And I agree, I just think it would be easier and less risky to just maintain the status quo for the short/mid term. If you're gonna take on AS, get stronger first

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
I don't know, ask United how much fun they are having in Denver......

Well I'm using words like "mostly" and I even acknowledged WN at Denver, so I don't know what you're getting at. I could be 100% full of it, so can you, which is why I try not to speak in absolutes. I don't think DL moving in on AS at SEA would be like WN at DEN

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 70):
Again, I don't get why it's in DL's best interest to greatly weaken a code-share partner. If AS drops their relationship with AA (and thus, BA, CX, and LA too) it takes away one part of AS's business success. That weakens AS's financial situation and possibly their ability to provide so much feed to DL.

This is a big criticism I hear against the AS merger, and it has merit, but you can see (even if you disagree) how it could possibly be better for DL having a weaker codeshare partner that doesn't help a competitor like AA. Again, agree or disagree, but it at least makes some sense. That is what I'd lean towards, I think DL would benefit more from having a maybe slightly weaker AS and codesharing at SEA and LAX, don't you?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-03-01 16:17:08 and read 2941 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 73):
I think DL would benefit more from having a maybe slightly weaker AS and codesharing at SEA and LAX, don't you?

Sure. I can see your point, but I'm not sure that AS's shareholders, leadership, employees, or customers (of which I'm a regular one) would like to see AS weakened just for DL's own personal benefit.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2013-03-01 16:56:09 and read 2890 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 74):
Sure. I can see your point, but I'm not sure that AS's shareholders, leadership, employees, or customers (of which I'm a regular one) would like to see AS weakened just for DL's own personal benefit.

Well that is business, some acquisitions go through, some fail like US+DL. Sometimes carriers can be enticed, sometimes they can't. I think AS' best route for AS is to codeshare with AA at LAX and DL at SEA... that way they have 2 boyfriends that will try and beat up each other if one boyfriend tries and hog the girl... so to speak.

I'm sure DL and AA would love AS to themselves and would do what they could to get all of AS, but that is where shareholders, employees, governments, etc come into play. It's a balancing act and not everyone will get their way.

But just because AS doesn't want them weakened at DL's expense, doesn't mean it can't happen (I don't think that'll happen either, btw, just for the record)

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-03-01 18:07:34 and read 2814 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 70):
If AS drops their relationship with AA (and thus, BA, CX, and LA too) it takes away one part of AS's business success. That weakens AS's financial situation and possibly their ability to provide so much feed to DL.
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 70):

Again, I don't get why it's in DL's best interest to greatly weaken a code-share partner.

That's the easiest question to answer. One stone, many birds...

1) Lowers the price of AS to be purchased
2) Hurts AA if they separate AS and AA
3) Helps DL gain share in LAX if they splinter AA-AS
4) Leaves AS with no other option but DL. Very few alliance partners are allowed to straddle alliances.

This is a strategic move. If AS does better with only DL then they will want to stay, if they do worse DL can acquire them more easily.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 71):
I'm referring to DL+AS in SEA vs AA+AS in LAX.

Whatever, bottom line AS added to AA/US is bigger than added to DL.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 71):
To 20%? That just doesn't seem like much in a fragmented market like LAX.
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 71):
I can accept that point of view. I don't know if that's what's going on, but I can see that happening.

I agree that 20% is not that much, but clearly DL is up to something and it started when AS and AA got more tightly together.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: b757capt
Posted 2013-03-01 20:01:47 and read 2697 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 31):
Las Vegas appears to be closing for ZK. The only other LAS route was a few days per week to Merced and on to Visalia, and that does not show as saleable beyond 3/31.

Yes ZK is closing the LAS station.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-03-01 21:57:10 and read 2569 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 72):
the Oil "thru traffic" from IAH helps UA(CO) on this route. It is good yielding. Any extra empty seats they fill in SEA is jsut gravy.

Point being, there are reasons that carriers fly ANC-SEA that don't involve retaliating against Alaska. Through traffic, idle aircraft, lack of RON space, etc.

Quoting enilria (Reply 76):
Whatever, bottom line AS added to AA/US is bigger than added to DL.

Whatever? I responded to your claims by offering the following before:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):


SEA

DL Share 11%
AS Share 49%
AA/US 7%

Total DL+AS: 60%
Total AA+AS: 56%

I guess if you're going to disregard it and make up your own facts that's fine, but I'll let you go it alone from here.

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: FlyASAGuy2005
Posted 2013-03-02 11:20:21 and read 2369 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):

I'm also convinved that i'm not in the vey least convinced that Delta is "attacking" AS in any way. Others may have a different view but this is all like a daytime talk show. You don't get much attention by downplaying anything.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-03-02 12:31:20 and read 2321 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 78):
Whatever? I responded to your claims by offering the following before:

I'm talking about LAX. AA has little interest in SEA. I don't know how you got the impression I'm talking about that. This whole situation revolves around LAX. Being exclusively AA in SEA is the worst scenario for AS.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-03-02 17:11:23 and read 2168 times.

If I'm not mistaken, AS and DL also code share in LAX, and AA and AS code share in SEA. It isn't as if AS has 'fenced' these cities from their other codeshare partners. Please, correct me if I'm wrong.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-03-02 21:00:03 and read 2086 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 80):
I'm talking about LAX. AA has little interest in SEA. I don't know how you got the impression I'm talking about that. This whole situation revolves around LAX. Being exclusively AA in SEA is the worst scenario for AS.

Look , you started with referencing AA/US+AS at LAX and suggested it was a no-go. I replied (see below) that DL+AS in SEA would have 3 TIMES the market concentration as AA/US+AS at LAX:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
Quoting enilria (Reply 55):Quoting HPRamper (Reply 30): AS has someone else to go to,
Do they? Is the DOT going to allow the largest airline in LAX (AA/US) also have a relationship with AS? Is DL pressuring AS to bail on that deal thinking it's going to be disallowed anyway? Something is clearly going on.
I'm not clear on why you think AA+AS at LAX is a no-go but DL+AS is fine. If anything, I'd think the latter would have a far larger hub marketshare than the former.

Unfortunately, I didn't make it clear that I referenced SEA, so you replied:

Quoting enilria (Reply 69):
Nope. DL has less share than AA or AA/US.

To which, I clarified by stating this:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 71):
I'm referring to DL+AS in SEA vs AA+AS in LAX.

To which, you brushed it off with this:

Quoting enilria (Reply 76):
Whatever, bottom line AS added to AA/US is bigger than added to DL.

So, yes, I know you mentioned LAX but I questioned your market concentration concerns for LAX by bringing up SEA.

Again, I'm not clear how a 20% marketshare in LAX for AA/US+AS would be a "no-go" but a 60% marketshare in SEA for DL+AS is fine?

But, you can say "Whatever" and that's fine.

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-03-02 22:10:19 and read 2025 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 64):
LAX

DL Share 12%
AS Share 5%
AAUS 15%

Total DL AS: 17%
Total AA AS: 20%

Enilria, I had posted this previously, but I'd like to clarify it because it is inaccurate. Below is the best I could pull for 2012 at LAX. "Current" is what the market share was by carrier for AA/US, DL, UA/CO, AS, and WN/FL. DL and UA/CO each include 1/2 of SkyWest because I don't know what the actual breakdown is for OO passengers carried for each of it's legacy partners. AS includes QX. AA/US includes American Eagle, which my numbers above did not.

Current:
AA/US 20%
UA/OO 18.5%
DL/OO 14.5%
WN/FL 12%
AS/QX 5%

AA+AS:
AA/AS 25%
UA 18.5%
DL 14.5%
WN 12%

DL+AS:
AA 20%
DL/AS 19.5%
UA 18.5%
WN 12%

So, for example, AA/US+AS at LAX would be 25%.
UA next at 18.5%

In a DL+AS deal, AA would still edge out DL with 20%, while DL would have 19.%%.

In any event, if a 25% marketshare is a deal-killer, I will be very surprised. It is FAR lower than what happens in some other very large cities for the hub carrier, it is still a very competitive and balanced portfolio of airlines and services, and I struggle to see how anyone would have an objection to it that would stop a deal moving forward.

-Dave

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: as739x
Posted 2013-03-03 00:09:41 and read 1962 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Looks like a trade. PHX was year round before? Wonder if it will come back.
*UA CLE-PDX JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8

Yes, CLE-PHX will return. It's in our system to re-start at least. Just now enough demand to the 100 degree desert during the summer when traffic can be routed via multiple hubs.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-03-03 01:51:19 and read 1920 times.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 54):
Which is completely unfeasible and would not enable them to rebalance their core network out of ATL, DTW, MSP with the pending reduction of 50 seat flight

I totally get that, and of course my example was far fetched to prove my point. Indeed DL is not trying to take AS on in SEA, if they were, like I said, they would need to base some short to mid-range aircraft in SEA operating the same routes AS does, like PHX, SAN, SFO, PDX, DEN, MCI, DFW, STL, GEG, BOI, which will not likely happen.

Quoting as739x (Reply 84):
Yes, CLE-PHX will return. It's in our system to re-start at least. Just now enough demand to the 100 degree desert during the summer when traffic can be routed via multiple hubs

If indeed the aircraft that is operating this seasonal PDX-CLE flight is the one that was running PHX-CLE, I would bank on it returning right after the summer season is over, and people start thinking warm weather again.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: freakyrat
Posted 2013-03-03 05:22:49 and read 1858 times.

The waiver to operate at ISN deals with aircraft weight in regards to runway length and width not so much as with ramp weight. Original waiver was given to United to operate E145X aircraft into ISN-DEN.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 3/1/2013: DL Adds SEA Markets/UA/Y4
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-03-03 05:33:36 and read 1861 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 83):
DL and UA/CO each include 1/2 of SkyWest because I don't know what the actual breakdown is for OO passengers carried for each of it's legacy partners

I believe the OO split at LAX between UA and DL branded flying is more than 50/50 for UA, but the UA portion should be coming down over the next few years as the E120 flying winds down. Plus, don't forget that for the tail-end of last year and going forward, the OO numbers at LAX also now include some flying for AA, as all non-CR7 Eagle flying in/out of LAX is now operated by OO.

However, all that being said, I believe that no matter what assumption you make on the UA/DL split of OO traffic, AA+US+MQ+the AA portion of OO traffic will still - combined - be larger than UA+OO at LAX (before any of the inevitable capacity rationalization at least). While not positive, I believe that would constitute the first time in decades (probably at least 30-40 years) that UA was not the largest single brand at LAX.

[Edited 2013-03-03 05:35:34]


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