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Topic: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: laolao
Posted 2013-01-28 00:16:05 and read 24110 times.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/tr...-plans-worlds-biggest-airport.html

If this materializes, the impact on European aviation can be immense.
Facilitated by the extended range of the MAX and the NEO, TK can connect nearly every secondary airports in Europe with all cities in Africa, Middle East and Asia using narrow bodies on a one-stop basis. Growth opportunities for TK are huge.
Let's see if IST or BER opens first. IST should open 2017!

[Edited 2013-01-28 00:41:16]

[Edited 2013-01-28 00:41:50]

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-01-28 00:27:51 and read 24100 times.

Link not working.

IST or BER, hmmmm. Though one but I would go with BER on this one.
Also; if it opens by 2017 the new Istanbul airport will have a capacity of 90mil pax a year. Future plans to grow all the way up to 150M pax a year with 6 runways. That might take another decade or longer.
By then I am sure UAE or China will have lot bigger airports.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LoneStarMike
Posted 2013-01-28 00:35:25 and read 24042 times.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 1):
Link not working.

Try this link

LoneStarMike

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-01-28 00:40:58 and read 24024 times.

We have this (rather blurry) animation of how it might look eventually:

http://zaman.com.tr/multimedia_getGa...onId=1&type=video&galleryId=133116

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: EK413
Posted 2013-01-28 00:46:26 and read 23930 times.

The rate BER continue to delay the opening I'll put my money on IST...

EK413

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: laolao
Posted 2013-01-28 00:48:30 and read 23919 times.

looks great!
Is there already a location for that behemoth?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-01-28 01:14:03 and read 23793 times.

Yup.. Very controversial location (the top left one):

http://img.haberler.com/haber/165/is...ak-3-havalimani-4270165_2744_o.jpg

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-01-28 01:49:41 and read 23616 times.

For thousands of years this place has been the crossroads of the world, why should that change? Geography was the reason it started being that crossroads, and that is why it works today still. IST has always been amazing, still is.  

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-01-28 01:58:26 and read 23556 times.

Very ambitious, in 4 years time. if they get the first stage with one runway and terminals for 30 mio pax completed in that time would be good already.

Also, road and rail a ccess needs a bridge on the eastern part of the Bosporous. What will happen to the 2 present airport?

As to the famous BER question, OK, I gamble and put me money on BER

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: flylonghaul
Posted 2013-01-28 02:23:11 and read 23432 times.

The design looks great! And that will really give TK the room to expand dramatically.

2017 does seem a little on the ambitious side though.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-01-28 02:24:54 and read 23427 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 8):
Also, road and rail a ccess needs a bridge on the eastern part of the Bosporous. What will happen to the 2 present airport?

The 3rd bridge is already in preliminary works - will probably be completed before the airport itself. As for the other airports, IST will close for scheduled commercial traffic and become a charter / GA airport, SAW will remain.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: 1400mph
Posted 2013-01-28 02:40:28 and read 23350 times.

The mind boggles.

Will IST and DXB and therefore TK and EK become future bitter rivals ?

Is the market big enough to support projected expansion plans of both airlines ?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: EK413
Posted 2013-01-28 02:49:09 and read 23303 times.

I've stumbled across the details of the construction phases...

1st phase: 70,00,000 PAX
-2 parallel runways + 1 cross runway
-distance between both parallel runways will be 2,300m
-Terminal: 1,000,000 m²
-car parks: 25,140
-~2019

2nd phase: 90,000,000 (+20,000,000)
-~2021
-3rd parallel runway
-new terminal with a capacity of 20,000,000
-underground connection between both terminals

3rd phase: 120,000,000 (+30,000,000)
-~2023
-new terminal with a capacity of 30,000,000
-4th parallel runway

4thh phase: 150,0000,000 (+30,000,000)
-~ 2025
-new terminal with a capacity of 30,000,000
-5th parallel runway

The city prefered the Silivri region (south of Istanbul. Marmara Sea), butt the Architects etc prefered the northern part / black sea.

EK413

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-01-28 03:12:46 and read 23154 times.

Over ambitious

adding 20/30/30 Mio capacity in leaps of only 2 years is by far exceeding realistic potential traffic growth. From a financial point of view, this would be a waste of money as these terminals and runways would need to be financed without the yield from the traffic volume they are designed for. Plus maintenance and whatever goes along with having buildings that needs servicing.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-01-28 04:59:09 and read 22806 times.

Quoting 1400mph (Reply 12):
Will IST and DXB and therefore TK and EK become future bitter rivals ?

That is what I am thinking as well. This new airport is aiming not only at the traditional large Western-European hubs, but is also aiming at winning passengers from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar.

That competition will be interesting. But contrary to those airports IST is already a very large, and still rapidly expanding metropolis. And the Turkish economy and population are also on the rise. That they would need a new airport soon is no news to anybody. Now the question is, will they also buy a large fleet of A380's as EK had done?  .

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):
Over ambitious

Maybe, but that is what we (or almost all of us) were thinking when we heard about the upcoming carriers out of the Middle East. And 20 years before them SQ did the same, so I am cautious to qualify their plans as over ambitious. They might be, but could just as easy imho become reality in the 2020-2030 time-frame.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Vinniewinnie
Posted 2013-01-28 05:38:30 and read 22578 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 15):
That is what I am thinking as well. This new airport is aiming not only at the traditional large Western-European hubs, but is also aiming at winning passengers from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar.

IST is a much better connection point from Europe not only to Africa but also Asia from the whole of Europe and the United-States/Canada.

Apart from Asia-Africa i'm struggling to see where DXB is more competitive than IST!

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-01-28 05:46:05 and read 22527 times.

Quoting Vinniewinnie (Reply 17):
Apart from Asia-Africa i'm struggling to see where DXB is more competitive than IST!

In fact, China to West Africa is shorter via IST.

via DXB
PEK-ABJ 6770 nm
PEK-DKR 7280 nm

via IST
PEK-ABJ 6596 nm
PEK-DKR 6701 nm

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: cloudyapple
Posted 2013-01-28 06:19:20 and read 22332 times.

There's a ~100mppa "limit" for single airports, beyond which ATC, pax flow, baggage, APM, CIQ and other support services all become very difficult. The MCT will start to drift up beyond what'll be required for a hub airport. I'm very sceptical about achieving 150mppa with a reasonable level of service.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: rampart
Posted 2013-01-28 06:29:12 and read 22271 times.

Istanbul is still bidding for the 2020 Summer Olympics. I think they have a good shot at getting it, and this airport would be a boon. But they'd need to start soon.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 3):
We have this (rather blurry) animation of how it might look eventually:

I dig the music!  

The place is CAVERNOUS, if the illustrations are accurate. I know it wants to be able to handle huge volumes of passengers, but the over-ample spaces are unmanageable for walking. The entry sidewalk alone is as wide a runway. Why?

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 6):
Yup.. Very controversial location (the top left one):

Can you go into details as to why? I'm curious, and know next to nothing about Istanbul.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):

For thousands of years this place has been the crossroads of the world, why should that change? Geography was the reason it started being that crossroads, and that is why it works today still. IST has always been amazing, still is.

Definitely. I was once playing with Great Circle Mapper. Given an 8000nm range, the only thing IST misses, just barely, is eastern Australia and New Zealand. On the same 8000nm range, DXB only misses western South America. And for good measure, TLV gets everything except New Zealand, but that's a different can of worms.

-Rampart

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-01-28 06:47:15 and read 22186 times.

Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 19):
There's a ~100mppa "limit" for single airports, beyond which ATC, pax flow, baggage, APM, CIQ and other support services all become very difficult.

What makes it so much more difficult at that point? To me it seems about planning for it from the beginning. Terminals between runways. Good communication between terminals.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-28 07:40:44 and read 22528 times.

This has been covered in the Turkish Aviation threads for a few months now as the lead up the the tender.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
For thousands of years this place has been the crossroads of the world, why should that change? Geography was the reason it started being that crossroads, and that is why it works today still. IST has always been amazing, still is.

  .

As they say, location, location, location.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 8):
What will happen to the 2 present airport?

IST will be limited to charter, cargo and training flights, along with GA traffic and the maintenance facilities.
The municipality is looking to redevelop property including establishment of fair grounds, and convention center facilities.

SAW on the Asian side continues to grow on its own setting records each year. Work on the added runway will begin there soon also.

Quoting flylonghaul (Reply 10):
And that will really give TK the room to expand dramatically.

THY will have exclusive use of a terminal to operate under a single roof to facilititate transfers.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 13):
I've stumbled across the details of the construction phases...

Dont know what your source is, however the tender documents call for

o Deadline for bids May 3rd.
o Airport project conducted under a BOT model (build, operate, transfer) running for 25-years.
o Airport would occupy 90,000 million square-meter land area of which 77 million square-meters will be developed
o Four-stage project
o First stage 90mil capacity and 3 runways by 2017
o Eventual up to 150mil with 6 runways
o Construction window - 42 months
o Will provide 120,000 jobs
o Estimated €7Bil investment
o Winning builders will be required to arrange commercial equity financing which will not be guaranteed by the Turkish Treasury


Winning tender will be selected based on 1) Meeting technical qualifications 2) Construction pricing, 3) Operating price through the 25-year lease period.

Already FRAport and Schiphol Group say they is interested in bidding.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):
Over ambitious

adding 20/30/30 Mio capacity in leaps of only 2 years is by far exceeding realistic potential traffic growth. From a financial point of view, this would be a waste of money as these terminals and runways would need to be financed without the yield from the traffic volume they are designed for.

Not really. Istanbul today already has traffic volume of 59 million, so opening an airport with 90mil capacity in 4-5 years seems reasonable.
At very moderate 5% growth by 2017 the count would be up to 72mil, but in reality TK is planning almost 50% growth in 5-year, so the 80mil+ range could easily be reached by the time the airport opens.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Tupolev160
Posted 2013-01-28 08:00:31 and read 22606 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):

I definitely don't see the need for a whole new mega-airport in Istanbul. Instead of that SAW should be dramatically expanded and IST improved. That will be enough for the next 50 years at least. Same goes for the 3rd Bosphorus bridge in Istanbul but again its all about numbers and show-off more than the rational need. What are the limitations of expanding SAW, besides TK managers not wanting their airline's headquarters to be somewhere in Asia? Cause as far as i understand, the new projected airport will be even further to Taksim than SAW - not even talking about Silivri which is damn far.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Tupolev160
Posted 2013-01-28 08:10:38 and read 22495 times.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 3):

At least the music is nice. If they eventually decide to go for it, they should not just make a big Otogar like in this movie but do something original, similar to the PEK newest terminal which is the most pleasant mega-airport i've been at.

leftyboarder (still trying to figure out your nickname, very intriguing) don't take me wrong, i'm even far more critical of my own country but i just can't stand stupidity, greed and vanity in general.

As Einstein said: “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” A Turkish writer made a similar comment.

Think about it.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-28 08:18:54 and read 22389 times.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 27):
Instead of that SAW should be dramatically expanded

It is. Few years back got its new terminal and new runway is on the way.

But ultimately the airport is located on the Asian side, a more residential area and far away from central Istanbul, commerce areas, tourist sites, and where most people want to go.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 27):
and IST improved.

Can't happen. Its land locked and in the middle of the growing metropolis.

No matter what a 3rd airport was needed. IST simply did not have a long term future.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 27):
Same goes for the 3rd Bosphorus bridge in Istanbul but again its all about numbers and show-off more than the rational need.

Have you seen the volume of vehicle traffic across the continents daily?

330,000 cars cross daily, on the two current bridges designed for 180,000.

Plans for a third bridge (capacity 120,000/day) over the Bosphorus have circulated since the early 1990s. Matter of fact they identified the need for 5-bridges to carry the volume, and also have the tunnel on the way as well.

One need to remember Istanbul has gone from a population of 2.5mil 40 years ago when the first Japanese bridge opened to 14mil+ today.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 27):
What are the limitations of expanding SAW, besides TK managers not wanting their airline's headquarters to be somewhere in Asia?

Again, the bulk of demand is on the European side, so yes SAW can and will expand on its own, but it certainly cant carry the weight for the entire metro area.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-28 08:54:01 and read 21767 times.

DEN will keep the title or 'world's biggest' once it is built out.   

and the new Beijing will be quite a rival...

Quoting 1400mph (Reply 12):
Will IST and DXB and therefore TK and EK become future bitter rivals ?

Bitter? I don't know. rivals?   

Besides, there has to be some port of entry to fortress Europe.  
Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 19):
There's a ~100mppa "limit" for single airports, beyond which ATC, pax flow, baggage, APM, CIQ and other support services all become very difficult.

Huh? There is no limit as you want to imply. The issue with current airports is none prior to the new Beijing airport were designed for > 100million passengers per year. I'm trying to think of *one* current airport that is at a limit designed for over 45 million passengers per year!

ATC will be handled by spacing the runways. Far superior than say ATL or ORD.

Passenger flow needs to be done as a super DEN; Broad hallways with horizontal escalators with better means to get from concourse to concourse.

For baggage, hire the company that set up MUC.

The other services could be distributed.

DEN, DWC, the new Beijing, ICN, and HKG will all break 100 million.
ATL has been handicapped by terminal space, runway spacing, and a lack of O&D traffic.
ORD has been hampered by terminal and airside capacity.
LHR has been held up by lack of new runways and needs more land for rapid terminal expansion.


Seriously, if a 2-runway airport with a curfew can hit 70 million passengers per year, why couldn't a 5 runway airport double that? I'd like to know the limit. As far as I know, economies of scale will only improve.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: stylo777
Posted 2013-01-28 09:13:11 and read 21568 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 31):
Quoting TK787 (Reply 16):

I like the idea of moving PC with their new order of NEOs also to the new airport. Just a quick calculation: IST 45mio and SAW 15mio adds up to 60mio. adding now some future growth potential to this quotiation might lead to the forecasted first phase of 90mio; however, I also fail to see the 150s now or in the future.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-01-28 09:25:47 and read 21261 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 29):

As always thank you, for simply explaining in detail.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):
Already FRAport and Schiphol Group say they is interested in bidding.

I guess they don't find the project over ambitious. I have a feeling they will be bidding to make a few $$$$.
Good Luck to them but TAV, current operator of IST, will do everything to win this.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-01-28 09:35:57 and read 21281 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):
Estimated €7Bil investment

LHR T5 alone cost 5 Bil and they expect to build a brand new mega airport from scratch for a mere 7 Bil? Right  

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: tommytoyz
Posted 2013-01-28 09:47:37 and read 21002 times.

I think DXB is going to have a serious competitor. This would have a few things going for it that DXB does not:

- Traffic supported by larger O&D traffic
- Shorter distances to many points than connecting via DXB
- Lower temperatures (important for some operations)
- No sand storms and sand related expenses on turbines, etc...


I think TK would order a bunch of new planes and expand if this happens and open up many new routes. Not necessarily with A380 though, as I think air cargo volume would be much higher through Turkey than through DXB and thus more important, since Dubai has virtually no product/production chain - unlike Turkey.
Just my 2 cents

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: umit
Posted 2013-01-28 09:48:10 and read 20927 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 35):

Would that be because of much lower labor cost ? lower cost of land comparing to London ?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-01-28 09:55:36 and read 20859 times.

Hello all,
Just to remind everyone that we have been talking this to death over the years and it is not going anywhere;
Yes the 3rd airport will be built, Yes there is a need, Yes TK will keep growing, Yes TK will order both the 350 and the 380.

Here is a look at some threads from exactly 6 years ago; Seems so loooooong ago;
Turkish Aviation January 2007 (by TK787 Jan 16 2007 in Civil Aviation)
Istanbul, 3rd Airport? LHR, IST.. Pics. Compared (by TK787 Jan 29 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-01-28 09:55:44 and read 20856 times.

Quoting umit (Reply 37):
Would that be because of much lower labor cost ? lower cost of land comparing to London ?

I'm saying I don'tbelieve it will cost only 7 Billion. T5 didn't require much land acquisition, certainly not in the scale that this new airport will require. And I doubt the labor costs will be significantly cheaper. Istambul is not Dubai or Beijing  

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-01-28 10:01:33 and read 20701 times.

Seems like there's going to be a lot of walking! Why are all of those people outside on the sidewalk? What IATA code will it have or will they transfer the IST code? PEK,DXB,DEN,HKG,IST,ICN,BKK....all of these huge airports are giving my airport, LGA, a bit of 'airport envy'.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-01-28 10:28:43 and read 20282 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 39):

well, the current terminal at IST cost a fraction of that... granted that was just a terminal but in Turkey construction costs are nowhere nesr that of the UK.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 28):

I am lefthanded and I snowboard.. did that alleviate your worries?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Turkish350XWB
Posted 2013-01-28 11:04:27 and read 19638 times.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 28):
As Einstein said: “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” A Turkish writer made a similar comment.

Think about it.

True, and a very very smart philosopher once said "Stupid people, shut up".

Think about it.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TurkishWings
Posted 2013-01-28 11:51:46 and read 18951 times.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 43):
I am lefthanded and I snowboard.. did that alleviate your worries?
Quoting Turkish350XWB (Reply 44):
True, and a very very smart philosopher once said "Stupid people, shut up".

Think about it.

Don't bother really... The more you reply to his posts, the more he will post.. Let him have his fun...

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-28 12:07:21 and read 18737 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 41):
It is simply saturation and when you look at ORD and ATL, where are the traffic figures going? Pretty flat.

But they are not good examples.

ATL needs more terminals and O&D traffic to expand. IST will have the O&D. Ground transportation is the issue.

ORD has been managed to keep AA and UA 'safe.' Until there is a large gate expansion along with airside improvements, it is 'boxed in.'

I see no reason the new IST wouldn't grow over 100 million as long as the ground transportation keeps up. (Which, is admittedly a reasonable doubt to have.)

Quoting airbazar (Reply 35):
LHR T5 alone cost 5 Bil and they expect to build a brand new mega airport from scratch for a mere 7 Bil? Right

LHR had many expenses that were high due to the:
1. Density of the location (cost of demolition and keeping LHR operating at peak capacity during construction).
2. "NIMBY hurdles" which is my term for roadblocks put up to stop the expansion of LHR.
Note: I think the airport will, like all big projects, go over-budget and schedule. Unless they hire whomever did the Concourse A at DXB.  

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Tupolev160
Posted 2013-01-28 12:12:39 and read 18680 times.

Istanbul, 3rd Airport? LHR, IST.. Pics. Compared (by TK787 Jan 29 2007 in Civil Aviation)

This post reflects exactly my opinion and it was posted by one of your compatriots (so no accusations of anti-turk-ism here please). Why build a 3rd airport if the existing ones are under-(or badly) utilized?
Obviously, just for some people to fill their pockets and gain political points by building unnecessary super-structures (and that from the outside only).

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: r2rho
Posted 2013-01-28 12:17:28 and read 18546 times.

This idea has been floating around for years now, so I'd like to at least see a detailed airport layout, not just articles with empty words. I do not doubt the demand for this airport nor the ability to build it, just if this time around it's actually truly happening.

150 million is exxaggerated and too optimistic IMO... but as long as they build the thing in phases, that's fine - halfway through they can always realize their predictions were off and cancel the last phases. 100 million though is achievable over the long term.

The success of of this airport will in great deal be directly proportional to the amount of denied runway capacity expansions, curfews, air passenger duties, etc that are introduced in the EU.

It will definitely have to compete with DXB & friends. But assuming a 3200nm realistic range, look at what you can do with an A321NEO from IST  http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3200nm+%40IST&MS=wls&DU=mi

TK will be able to serve thin secondary destinations with narrowbodies where the Gulf carriers need a widebody, which can open interesting possibilities.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 11):
As for the other airports, IST will close for scheduled commercial traffic and become a charter / GA airport, SAW will remain.

Good decision. SAW is more LCC oriented and on the Asian side of a huge metropolitan area, it is perfectly complementary to this new airport. Limiting IST will avoid a LIN-MXP situation. Having said that, I think IST could still have some limited commercial operations, with limits on slots, a/c size and range, to keep a sort of LCY-type operation.


Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
For thousands of years this place has been the crossroads of the world,

  

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-28 12:26:40 and read 18362 times.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 48):
This post reflects exactly my opinion and it was posted by one of your compatriots (so no accusations of anti-turk-ism here please). Why build a 3rd airport if the existing ones are under-(or badly) utilized?

That thread is 6 years old.

In 2006, Istanbul market enplanements were 24 million total. In 2012 it was 59mil !!

THY in 2006 celebrated the arrival of its 100th aircraft. It ended 2012 with 205.

Today, no one, from the airline community, to politicians are questioning the need for more capacity, and a 3rd airport.
IST Ataturk can only be improved with small increments today.

A new greenfield airport is the sole answer, and the debate recently was not about if its needed, but where it should be located.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2013-01-28 12:53:14 and read 17884 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
For thousands of years this place has been the crossroads of the world, why should that change?

Because it's no longer about roads?

It is true that IST's geographical location is pretty ideal for Europe-ME connections, though. Perhaps even better than DXB and neighbors.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: justloveplanes
Posted 2013-01-28 13:05:48 and read 17623 times.

Looks like IST will be a narrow body hub and DXB a wide body hub. IST will take away some business from DXB a la Southwest using secondary airports to get to the local populace at the source, but that was an eventuality. It should be very successful if they don't over-reach, so setting a modest (!) target like 50 million vice 150 million should do just fine to start. IST looks like it will be a similar, yet different animal to DXB.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-01-28 13:12:04 and read 17498 times.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 52):
so setting a modest (!) target like 50 million

Here it is one more time;
IST hit 45mil pax in 2012!!!! 50M will be reached easily before the end of 2013.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-01-28 13:16:06 and read 17396 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 51):
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
For thousands of years this place has been the crossroads of the world, why should that change?

Because it's no longer about roads?

Good one! 

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-01-28 13:24:50 and read 17305 times.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 49):
TK will be able to serve thin secondary destinations with narrowbodies where the Gulf carriers need a widebody, which can open interesting possibilities.

Why do you say this?

IST needs more range to reach SE Asia while DOH does not. The other difference is the trade-off of two bits of Africa. DOH is better located for narrow-bodies than IST. Though no doubt I rather change in IST.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3200nm+@doh%2C+3200nm+@ist&MS=wls&DU=mi

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-01-28 14:21:00 and read 16584 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 30):
DEN will keep the title or 'world's biggest' once it is built out.

The article states that the new airport will be 77M square meters. I’m hoping that my arithmetic is correct here, but I do believe that this 77M square meters will be just a fraction under 30 square miles. DEN is at 53 square miles, so DEN will remain bigger at least in terms of land area.

I love following big new airports around the world.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 30):
Passenger flow needs to be done as a super DEN; Broad hallways with horizontal escalators with better means to get from concourse to concourse.

I agree. The traffic design at DEN is probably second to none.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 16):
2012= 45M
Quoting EK413 (Reply 13):
4thh phase: 150,0000,000 (+30,000,000)
-~ 2025

This new Istanbul airport is stated to facilitate some 150M pax per year at full build out by year 2025? This just from observation and experience I have to ask, but isn't this extremely, extremely ambitious? We're assuming here that pax traffic here will more than triple in a span of about 12-13 years. WOW is all I can think of the optimists in Istanbul. I think that Istanbul does have many fantastic things going for it, but again, WOW........

Are they going to be closing the other two airports in the area? If not, then I see this goal of 150M pax by 2025 even more difficult to achieve.

Anyway, all the best to Istanbul...... and I do look forward to being "wowwed" many more times as this progresses.


 

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-28 14:44:29 and read 16269 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 56):
The article states that the new airport will be 77M square meters. I’m hoping that my arithmetic is correct here, but I do believe that this 77M square meters will be just a fraction under 30 square miles. DEN is at 53 square miles, so DEN will remain bigger at least in terms of land area.

Noted in Reply 26

Airport would occupy 90,000 million square-meter land area of which 77 million square-meters will be developed.

Quoting point2point (Reply 56):
We're assuming here that pax traffic here will more than triple in a span of about 12-13 years. WOW is all I can think of the optimists in Istanbul. I think that Istanbul does have many fantastic things going for it, but again, WOW........

Wow is right, but check out the growth the last decade --

Total Istanbul passengers(mil) / annual growth rate
2000 - 10.3
2001 - 10.8 / +4.9%
2002 - 11.4 / +5.6%
2003 - 12.3 / +7.9%
2004 - 15.8 / +28.5%
2005 - 20.2 / +27.8%
2006 - 24.2 / +19.8%
2007 - 26.9 / +11.1%
2008 - 32.8 / +21.9%
2009 - 36.2 / +10.4%
2010 - 43.3 / +19.6%
2011 - 50.6 / +16.9%
2012 - 59.5 / +17.6%

Growth has averaged 16% annually !

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-01-28 14:46:28 and read 16231 times.

Is it just me or are all the new airports being planned and master plans being updated for a new "busiest airport"?

I think many major US airports, most new middle eastern, and many east Asian airports are planned for over 100 million.

Quoting point2point (Reply 56):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 30):
DEN will keep the title or 'world's biggest' once it is built out.

The article states that the new airport will be 77M square meters. I’m hoping that my arithmetic is correct here, but I do believe that this 77M square meters will be just a fraction under 30 square miles. DEN is at 53 square miles, so DEN will remain bigger at least in terms of land area.

Your math is correct.
It will still be smaller than DMM by land area. IIRC, DMM is at something like 300 square miles. RUH is around 80.

DEN is large enough to fit ATL, ORD, DFW, and LAX into it (by square miles, not shape). Thus, it is larger than all US airports busier than it combined.

90,000,000 square meters is about 34.75 square miles, so IST is still smaller than DEN. DFW is 28.25 square miles.

[Edited 2013-01-28 14:50:15]

[Edited 2013-01-28 14:50:53]

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: ely747
Posted 2013-01-28 15:12:59 and read 15929 times.

Not sure if this has already been pointed (far too many posts to read) however Istanbul or Turkey itself has competitive advantage over the Gulf and that is the home market which cannot be ignored and makes the whole project more sustainable. Using IST as a stopover makes more sense than DXB or DOH in most cases. Can't see the reason why would anybody want to fly from the UK / France/ Germany to CPT or JNB via DXB unless you want to spend a day or two down the beach.

In addition IST can work for the Israel market which is not that big in number of people but rather in high yields.. Pegasus and TH are the only airlines from the region serving TLV as of today.

[Edited 2013-01-28 15:16:52]

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-01-28 16:28:10 and read 15181 times.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 16):
IST pax numbers;
2002= 12M
2004= 16M
2006= 21M
2008= 28M
2010= 32M
2012= 45M
Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 58):

airport land area and actual built up airport acreage are teo different things. DMM is indeed the largest in total land as it streches out into the desert for miles. but in terms of terminal space I am pretty sure all the other airports mentioned in this thread are larger. new IST will probably be larger than DEN in terms of terminal space.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-01-28 17:43:31 and read 14570 times.

Quoting ely747 (Reply 59):
far too many posts to read

Then why are you here? 58 posts is NOTHING! Would you want us to skip over your posts? Read the posts, they're very insightful and you might learn something interesting.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Turkish350XWB
Posted 2013-01-28 18:25:31 and read 14157 times.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 50):
Looks like IST will be a narrow body hub and DXB a wide body hub.

TK widebody fllet will also be of decent size (approx the size if BA, LH, AF). But the situation is also not comparable as TK is not dependent on longhaul transport because of its geographical position.

Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
This new Istanbul airport is stated to facilitate some 150M pax per year at full build out by year 2025? This just from observation and experience I have to ask, but isn't this extremely, extremely ambitious?

Well there is the market saturation thing as others explained earlier, but demand can also be created. IST in my eyes will be one of the leading hubs as it is quite "symmetric". With this i mean that they can use NB and WB in all directions. It will be very easy to add further spokes as the new connections will be easy to adapt into the scheduling system because of high frequencies.

Quoting Vinniewinnie (Reply 17):
Apart from Asia-Africa i'm struggling to see where DXB is more competitive than IST!

Australia...

Can someone post the masterplan of the airport? Maybe we can start a discussion about the design of the airport (general architecture, adjustment of runways and terminals, passenger bridges, parking positions) and how efficient it will be to transfer (distance to walk, change councourse).

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK739ER
Posted 2013-01-28 19:44:32 and read 13546 times.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 13):
1st phase: 70,00,000 PAX
-2 parallel runways + 1 cross runway
-distance between both parallel runways will be 2,300m
-Terminal: 1,000,000 m²
-car parks: 25,140
-~2019

2nd phase: 90,000,000 (+20,000,000)
-~2021
-3rd parallel runway
-new terminal with a capacity of 20,000,000
-underground connection between both terminals

3rd phase: 120,000,000 (+30,000,000)
-~2023
-new terminal with a capacity of 30,000,000
-4th parallel runway

4thh phase: 150,0000,000 (+30,000,000)
-~ 2025
-new terminal with a capacity of 30,000,000
-5th parallel runway

Why so many parallel runways? What happens when the winds change direction? At least two should be another direction like DEN, or not??  

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: ASA
Posted 2013-01-28 20:05:30 and read 13320 times.

Quoting TK739ER (Reply 61):
Why so many parallel runways? What happens when the winds change direction? At least two should be another direction like DEN, or not??

The prevailing / dominating wind flow pattern must be North-South and rarely East-West
... does anyone have a Wind Rose diagram of the area?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-01-28 20:11:41 and read 13250 times.

Quoting rampart (Reply 20):
The place is CAVERNOUS, if the illustrations are accurate. I know it wants to be able to handle huge volumes of passengers, but the over-ample spaces are unmanageable for walking. The entry sidewalk alone is as wide a runway. Why?

It is an artists rendition and not a photograph. Most artists renditions are not really what it looks like once it is built.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2013-01-28 20:12:08 and read 13220 times.

The beauty of staging the expansion is that it the schedules can be changed for each level of expansion. 150m may be the best case scenario but there will be 4 or 5 separate expansion projects to get there...and if traffic growth slows, all it takes is putting off building the next stage of the expansion.

What this all new airport out in the boonies will give IST is flexibility and the piece of mind that if traffic growth warrants it, there is room to grow and plans already in place, ready to go.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-28 20:40:47 and read 12989 times.

I posted this in one of the Turkish Av thread many months back, but yes dominant wind direction are virtually always off shore with only about a 8% variance in direction probability.



=

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-28 21:09:28 and read 12715 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
I love following big new airports around the world.

   ditto. Eventually one will break 100M passengers per year.   

Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
WOW is all I can think of the optimists in Istanbul. I think that Istanbul does have many fantastic things going for it, but again, WOW........

But as noted, they have the growth and with Europe's hubs being so congested, they have an opportunity.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 56):
I think many major US airports, most new middle eastern, and many east Asian airports are planned for over 100 million.

A few. Not that many in the US. DEN, MCO, one day ATL, and... that's it for now. I hope ORD post runway re-alignment.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 56):
DEN is large enough to fit ATL, ORD, DFW, and LAX into it (by square miles, not shape). Thus, it is larger than all US airports busier than it combined.

   It is supposed to be the 'last hub standing' when all the others are impacted.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 56):
DFW is 28.25 square miles.

I heard "too big" and "no airport needs to be that big" and other variations about DFW when I was younger. No one says that now...   

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: stylo777
Posted 2013-01-29 00:34:38 and read 11075 times.

yesterday the official population of Turkey has been updated with 75.6 mio. this alone creates a "mini-hub" the size of some European airports, because all domestic traffic goes virtually through IST. there are direct flights here and there and ESB wants to be an East-connector, but all those numbers are overshadowed by the massive numbers of those going via IST. thats more or less the backbone of IST, quite a difference to DXB, DOH, etc.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Darksnowynight
Posted 2013-01-29 01:05:12 and read 11026 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 66):

A few. Not that many in the US. DEN, MCO, one day ATL, and... that's it for now. I hope ORD post runway re-alignment.

I'd add DFW to that list too. Having worked there a good deal, I have to say it is probably 2nd only to DEN in terms of ease of expandability. As it is, they are already tied for having the most RWYs at a civilian airfield anyway, and they have space for two more! Anyway, the real reason I think they can handle more than 100mio PAX there in North Texas is...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 66):
87DEN (Reply 56):
DFW is 28.25 square miles.

I heard "too big" and "no airport needs to be that big" and other variations about DFW when I was younger. No one says that now...

This... It is indeed huge. But have you seen the master plan? It deviates greatly from what is now there (since it was come up with over 40 years ago), and it's unlikely we'll see it anytime soon the way AA and the industry are getting by these days. But, at one time, there were at least semi-serious plans for up to Thirteen of the semi-circular terminals along Int'l Pkwy there.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 64):

The beauty of staging the expansion is that it the schedules can be changed for each level of expansion. 150m may be the best case scenario but there will be 4 or 5 separate expansion projects to get there...and if traffic growth slows, all it takes is putting off building the next stage of the expansion.

Well put. As mentioned above, DFW's master plan is absolutely staggering compared to what's actually there now. And what's there now isn't exactly a joke. Do I think they'll ever really build out all 13 terminals as originally envisaged? Good chance they will. Just not sure that it will happen in my or my children's lifetime, but the long term thinking and land availability are there.

I think that the "new" IST is no exception to this. Look at the trends, and IST's position, it is not at all hard to rationally conclude that 150mio PAX is a realistic goal. I'm not sold that it will happen by 2025, and I don't think the developers really believe that either (though 100mio is not unreasonable). But, they are very obviously thinking ahead, and have their heads in the right place to secure the land, and plan out RWY space in the meantime. They are wise to save future generations a lot of heartburn, especially as the actual MSA of Istanbul continues to grow.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: rampart
Posted 2013-01-29 06:12:53 and read 10644 times.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 59):
But, at one time, there were at least semi-serious plans for up to Thirteen of the semi-circular terminals along Int'l Pkwy there.
Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 59):
Well put. As mentioned above, DFW's master plan is absolutely staggering compared to what's actually there now. And what's there now isn't exactly a joke. Do I think they'll ever really build out all 13 terminals as originally envisaged? Good chance they will. Just not sure that it will happen in my or my children's lifetime, but the long term thinking and land availability are there.

I found the thread from a couple years ago discussing this.
Insane 1970s DFW Expansion Plans (with Map) (by rolypolyman Aug 3 2010 in Civil Aviation)

"Rolypolyman" (is he/she still around?) assembled a DFW vs Dubai map to scale. It looked like the actual airport functions (runways, ramps, taxiways, terminals, parking) of DWC were still smaller than that of the DFW currently, much less a future buildout.

-Rampart

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-29 06:24:57 and read 10581 times.

I'm liking how this is turning into a thread on how airports could break 100M pax/year.   

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 59):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 66):

A few. Not that many in the US. DEN, MCO, one day ATL, and... that's it for now. I hope ORD post runway re-alignment.

I'd add DFW to that list too.

Agreed. But they will need a runway-realignment.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 59):
But have you seen the master plan?

Not the latest for DFW. I recall a plan for two huge terminals purely for AA with the 'horse-shoes' being handed over to other airlines.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 59):
But, at one time, there were at least semi-serious plans for up to Thirteen of the semi-circular terminals along Int'l Pkwy there.

I appreciate rampart's map. I consider that a serious expansion plan. However, now each terminal handles far more passengers than conceived.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: rampart
Posted 2013-01-29 09:00:26 and read 10356 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 61):
I appreciate rampart's map. I consider that a serious expansion plan. However, now each terminal handles far more passengers than conceived.

I would imagine that, at DFW, is partially due to the conversion away from the ultimately distributed drive-to-the-gate plan: 1 small ticket counter and baggage claim per gate x scores of gates. A bit more consolidation allows for more traffic, though less convenience.

-Rampart

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-29 20:32:20 and read 9862 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 39):
A new greenfield airport is the sole answer, and the debate recently was not about if its needed, but where it should be located.

And size... which was a function of location.    Istanbul definitely needs a new airport built far larger than the current IST.

Serious question, will IST remain open after the new airport opens? I personally hope the answer is no to enable consolidation/connections at the new airport. IMHO, the best solution for TK.

Quoting point2point (Reply 45):
so DEN will remain bigger at least in terms of land area.

I forgot to note runways too. 12 vs. 5 at the new IST (does it have a code assigned?).

Quoting rampart (Reply 62):
1 small ticket counter and baggage claim per gate x scores of gates.

   Yea... the utilization is far different than initial estimates. Hey, a classy problem to have.   I personally really like terminal D at DFW.   

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-01-29 21:37:05 and read 9773 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 63):
Serious question, will IST remain open after the new airport opens? I personally hope the answer is no

see...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
IST will be limited to charter, cargo and training flights, along with GA traffic and the maintenance facilities.
The municipality is looking to redevelop property including establishment of fair grounds, and convention center facilities.

SAW on the Asian side continues to grow on its own setting records each year. Work on the added runway will begin there soon also.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: EK413
Posted 2013-01-29 22:13:46 and read 9761 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
Quoting point2point (Reply 45):
Quoting TK739ER (Reply 52):

My source has been reliable in the past http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1394048&page=4

EK413

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-01-30 12:23:04 and read 9338 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 64):
see...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
IST will be limited to charter, cargo and training flights, along with GA traffic and the maintenance facilities.
The municipality is looking to redevelop property including establishment of fair grounds, and convention center facilities.

SAW on the Asian side continues to grow on its own setting records each year. Work on the added runway will begin there soon also.

   err... thank you for your patience.   

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
SAW on the Asian side continues to grow on its own setting records each year. Work on the added runway will begin there soon also.

   While I'm not in favor of split hubs, having the secondary airport a 2-runway airport is impressive. That puts Istanbul into a rare league with Los Angles, Chicago, Houston, New York, Miami (arguably w/FLL), Frankfurt (HHN... sorta), San Francisco Bay (OAK is debatable as a 2-runway though...), Shanghai, Tokyo, and Seoul.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
o First stage 90mil capacity and 3 runways by 2017
o Eventual up to 150mil with 6 runways

Why do I have 5-runways stuck in my head?!? Oh well, thank you for referring me back to your prior post.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: denverdanny
Posted 2013-01-30 12:43:41 and read 9295 times.

What impact might political and regional issues have on this airport? I guess I'm thinking about instability in the region, as well as a potential swing towards a less secular Turkey. I mean, look what's happening in Egypt and other countries in the area. Sure, a lot of growth, but a lot of instability too. It can be good to build new airports, but probably better to expand existing ones as demand warrants. Are the existing airports that constrained that this would be necessary?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK739ER
Posted 2013-01-30 20:29:37 and read 9120 times.

Quoting denverdanny (Reply 67):
What impact might political and regional issues have on this airport? I guess I'm thinking about instability in the region, as well as a potential swing towards a less secular Turkey. I mean, look what's happening in Egypt and other countries in the area. Sure, a lot of growth, but a lot of instability too. It can be good to build new airports, but probably better to expand existing ones as demand warrants. Are the existing airports that constrained that this would be necessary?

The existing airport is landlocked and there is really not much room to grow, say they want to completely redesign and rearrange the entire airport, that would cost as much as a new airport, long and painful process side by side with the current operation. In the end that would be a dead investment because next 10 years or so they would run into same problem, not enough space for facilities and runways...

It's a really good idea to build a new airport but I'm not sure IST would really need a 150M capacity in the next 30 or so years, IMO rather than building a mega airport right away they should secure as much land as they can for the future growth, since we both live in DEN I don't need to tell you how much land DIA owns, which is awesome 

About the political and regional issues; to be honest with you this is actually the biggest concern for me about my old country, the current party in power over the last decade totally sucks IMHO, yes I'll give them the credit when its due about some matters but foreign policy sucks these days, they definitely are not in good terms with any of their neighbors,thanks to our Mr. Macho PM, majority of people are uncomfortable with the government's intentions, they are still wondering is the country becoming a less secular place and yes I think it is.
Economy no matter what the PM says is still fragile and reminds me of a big balloon, anything could happen anytime in Turkey. PM goes on the stage says something ridiculous or two of the ministers in the cabinet argues about something, next thing you know Stock Market takes a big dive. So your instability concern is spot on, couldn't agree more.

Oh well, there is not much I can do at this point, I wish them the best of luck, every society is ruled by what they really deserve.   

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: ytz
Posted 2013-01-31 07:24:13 and read 8807 times.

Quoting TK739ER (Reply 68):
So your instability concern is spot on, couldn't agree more.

As someone who has followed Turkey for a while, I get the concern. That said, disaster has happened since the Islamists came to power. And they know that if they don't deliver economically, voters will turf them. Thankfully, Turkey is a democracy. And Turkish voters are a lot brighter than Egyptian voters.

Quoting TK739ER (Reply 68):
It's a really good idea to build a new airport but I'm not sure IST would really need a 150M capacity in the next 30 or so years, IMO rather than building a mega airport right away they should secure as much land as they can for the future growth,

Isn't that the point of phased development? You plan to grow with demand. And if demand doesn't materialize on schedule, you delay the phases. I haven't seen anywhere that this is a hard and fast schedule, that they'll stick to at any cost.

That said, they do need to launch with the 90 mil pax capacity to start. That's a given.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-01-31 07:27:27 and read 8786 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 40):
Because it's no longer about roads?

You are correct, it is about geography.... 

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-02-01 17:16:45 and read 8361 times.

So far 12 companies have filed applications with a $55K fee. The number is expected to go up to 20 companies.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-02-02 19:24:51 and read 7944 times.

Quoting Turkish350XWB (Reply 51):
Australia...

Eastern Australia and New Zealand are the only two markets which are not able to be served via IST. For me this raises an interesting question in whether that actually matters or not. Practically every European carrier seems to think that the answer is no, having long since given up that market. Nonetheless, Europe-Australia provides a very significant "bedrock" to both SQ and EK. While SE Asia for SQ and Indian Sub-continent for EK are almost definitely more important in absolute terms, the Australia/NZ market is certainly a very valuable one to those 2 airlines.

Will this geographic disadvantage harm TK? Probably not. By 2025 the combined population of the two countries will probably be somewhere around the 30mil mark, only marginally bigger than Tokyo-Yokohama or Shanghai. Nonetheless, they are both wealthy countries with populations that have a propensity to travel long-haul, much more so than Europeans or North Americans. TK could always consider one-stop flights via SE Asia. EK and EY both fly some flights to Australia via SIN, BKK and KUL, even though they have the aircraft to fly non-stop.

To be honest I think that being well positioned to tap into the growth markets in Africa, Middle East and CIS positions TK in a very good position with regards to future growth, and they are better off focussing on these, leaving a maturing market will lower growth potential to EK and SQ.

Just my 2c

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2013-02-02 19:41:42 and read 7937 times.

I used IST back in the summer of 2008 (as O&D, as well as a transit pax) , and even then it was bursting at the seams. All of my flights arrived at remote stands, where we deplaned by stairs and had to be bussed to the terminal. Not that I minded. The line for customs was about an hour. The departure process was better - having security at the individual gates rather than (a) centralized checkpoint(s) probably helps, and we always boarded via jetbridge upon departure. With all of the expansion they've done since, complete with flights to some very exotic places like Mogadishu, Baghdad, and Kabul, I can't imagine what it's like now. IST is a beautiful airport, but certainly a victim of its own success. I should imagine that a new airport will properly accommodate all of TK's growth and of course in terms of amenities likely be every bit as great as its new Middle Eastern counterparts!

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: boeing773ER
Posted 2013-02-02 19:54:42 and read 7903 times.

Am I the only person who is not amazed by TK's growth? People are always saying how they are growing at such an incredible rate, but how? They don't have that many planes on order, 67. It's a nice number, but US has more planes on order. I'm not sure how TK is growing this quickly.

Does anyone have any numbers from the past 10 years to really show how big this growth is?

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: trent1000
Posted 2013-02-02 20:29:31 and read 7871 times.

Quoting rampart (Reply 18):
Istanbul is still bidding for the 2020 Summer Olympics. I think they have a good shot at getting it, and this airport would be a boon. But they'd need to start soon.

I'm not on the Olympic Committee, but in my opinion, they'll choose a city with existing transport infrastructure - of all kinds - rather than awarding the event on promises of building new subway lines, airports, freeways etc.
On the basis of existing infrastructure (2 international airports) and a modern, clean, efficient public transport network, combined with all Olympic venues within about a 12 km radius, I believe that Tokyo will win its bid to host the 2020 summer Olympics.
The three Candidate Cities are Istanbul, Tokyo, and Madrid. The IOC will elect the host city on 7 September 2013 in Buenos Aires.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-02 20:42:55 and read 7865 times.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 71):
So far 12 companies have filed applications with a $55K fee. The number is expected to go up to 20 companies.

So much for all those skeptics.

While I doubt only half of the companies will place serious bids, the opportunity presented by the new airport is simply too big to pass up for major construction firms and airport groups.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
To be honest I think that being well positioned to tap into the growth markets in Africa, Middle East and CIS positions TK in a very good position with regards to future growth, and they are better off focussing on these, leaving a maturing market will lower growth potential to EK and SQ.

TK's big advantage over the likes of EK is that it sits on the doorstep of Europe. Not only can TK offer very hight frequencies on services thanks to its narrowbody fleet where EK can only send a single daily widebody, TK can also serve host of secondary cities which the Gulf players (expect maybe QR with its narrowbodies) cant touch.

Also obviously Turkey is its own large home market and demand driver on many routes itself.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 73):
I used IST back in the summer of 2008 (as O&D, as well as a transit pax) , and even then it was bursting at the seams

Its still quite bustling, but what has changed since 2008 is THY has grown its daily hub banks. So while activity is still concentrated during those peaks, they managed to absorb added frequencies by primarily spreading the days operations out and not just pilling more flights onto the existing peaks.

Also to help, TAV the airport operator extended the international terminal gate pier and was able to get an additional 4 jetway gates in recent years, and has also extended tarmac area for additional hard stand spots.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 74):
Does anyone have any numbers from the past 10 years to really show how big this growth is?

Not sure what type of numbers you want but here are some year end numbers.

Fleet
2001 - 68
2002 - 66
2003 - 65
2004 - 73
2005 - 82
2006 - 93
2007 - 101
2008 - 123
2009 - 132
2010 - 153
2011 - 179

Destinations
2001 - 104
2002 - 103
2003 - 103
2004 - 105
2005 - 107
2006 - 116
2007 - 132
2008 - 142
2009 - 156
2010 - 174
2011 - 189

Passengers (millions)
2001 - 10.3mil
2002 - 10.4
2003 - 10.5
2004 - 11.9
2005 - 14.1
2006 - 16.9
2007 - 19.6
2008 - 22.6
2009 - 25.1
2010 - 29.1
2011 - 33.0

Net Profit / Loss (mil TL)
2001 - 19.9mil
2002 - 67.4
2003 - 173.5
2004 - 107.1
2005 - 138.2
2006 - 185.7
2007 - 291.9
2008 - 1,134.2
2009 - 559.1
2010 - 286.4
2011 - 18.6

Quoting trent1000 (Reply 75):
The three Candidate Cities are Istanbul, Tokyo, and Madrid. The IOC will elect the host city on 7 September 2013 in Buenos Aires.

One can argue that both Madrid and Tokyo have already hosted the games.

Also Turkey has the infrastructure already. Istanbul already has 2 international airports, has venues and stadiums (a Olympic stadium was built for the 2008 bid already), has a subway, etc

Also Istanbul has made it to the finalist voting stage before so I think its time they are rewarded finally.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: trent1000
Posted 2013-02-02 22:07:27 and read 7906 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 76):
One can argue that both Madrid and Tokyo have already hosted the games.

Madrid has not been a host city of the summer Olympics. The 1992 summer games were in Barcelona.
May the best proposal win!

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: r2rho
Posted 2013-02-03 07:26:10 and read 7526 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 76):
TK's big advantage over the likes of EK is that it sits on the doorstep of Europe. Not only can TK offer very hight frequencies on services thanks to its narrowbody fleet where EK can only send a single daily widebody, TK can also serve host of secondary cities which the Gulf players (expect maybe QR with its narrowbodies) cant touch.

Furthermore the Gulf carriers are limited in frequencies and number of destinations by the various bilaterals. TK AFAIK either has no such limitation, or it is very generous. They can flood non-hub secondary EU cities with A320NEO's to IST, from where pax can transfer onwards to their final destinations.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: boeing773ER
Posted 2013-02-03 11:24:20 and read 7352 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 76):

Thanks LAX those were the exact numbers I was looking for.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-02-05 05:20:59 and read 6929 times.

Air traffic numbers are up for January 2013 compared to Jan2012. (slow winter traffic month for IST)
From Turkish Aviation thread; from "Leftyboarder"
New year, but same old IST... January 2013 numbers for all airports released by DHMI on dhmi.gov.tr/istatistik and, no surprises - IST growing over 20% yet again. If it stays above 15%, we might see it overtake AMS and MAD this year to become 4th most used in Europe.

Here's a quick recap:

IST
Dom 1,232,754 up 13%
Int'l 2,337,828 up 26%

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-18 22:03:15 and read 6340 times.

General Directorate of State Airports Authority (DHMI) announced that it has received applications from 16 firms wishing to participate in the new airport tender.

Its understood atleast 6 foreign firms are teaming up with Turkish partners such as Sabancı Holding, TAV, Alarko Holding, Varyap, Limak and Doğuş Holding on the project.

Tender submission deadline is set for May 3rd.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-02-19 07:05:53 and read 5973 times.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 80):
If it stays above 15%, we might see it overtake AMS and MAD this year to become 4th most used in Europe.

I think overtaking MAD is a given with the IB strikes. AMS? While I'm impressed with IST's growth (mainly TK), I think that is more likely in 2014.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: TK787
Posted 2013-03-06 05:24:28 and read 5385 times.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 80):
Air traffic numbers are up for January 2013 compared to Jan2012. (slow winter traffic month for IST)
From Turkish Aviation thread; from "Leftyboarder"
New year, but same old IST... January 2013 numbers for all airports released by DHMI on dhmi.gov.tr/istatistik and, no surprises - IST growing over 20% yet again. If it stays above 15%, we might see it overtake AMS and MAD this year to become 4th most used in Europe.

Here's a quick recap:

IST
Dom 1,232,754 up 13%
Int'l 2,337,828 up 26%

February numbers up and IST pax traffic up 27% compared to 2012.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-19 18:29:49 and read 4779 times.

As part of last Fridays THY annual earnings release, they indicated they would likely carry about 46 million passengers in 2013. That is 18% growth versus 2012.

So IST might indeed see a 20%+ increase in 2013, and leap a spot in the European airport rankings.

Also if anyone is interested the network passenger breakdown was provided - 23% of enplanements were international - international connects.
Not a very high percentage when compared to hub carrier like EK. So whopping 77% of traffic was local Turkey O&D still.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-03-20 06:11:59 and read 4366 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 84):
23% of enplanements were international - international connects.
Not a very high percentage when compared to hub carrier like EK. So whopping 77% of traffic was local Turkey O&D still.

Wow... That is a trivial fraction. What is the overall connecting fraction (including domestic Turkey connections)?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 84):
So IST might indeed see a 20%+ increase in 2013

Might indeed. Due to tightening infrastructure a little more challenging, but certainly possible.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 76):
TK's big advantage over the likes of EK is that it sits on the doorstep of Europe.

I think you just showed their big advantage is domestic O&D.   So what you posted in reply #76 is their #2 advantage.   

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-03-20 06:18:22 and read 4343 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 85):
Wow... That is a trivial fraction. What is the overall connecting fraction (including domestic Turkey connections)?

Int'l-Dom connections are a further 16% of total traffic. All conx make up 39% of TK traffic. 61% is O&D.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-03-20 06:41:32 and read 4294 times.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 86):
Int'l-Dom connections are a further 16% of total traffic. All conx make up 39% of TK traffic. 61% is O&D.

If half of that 61% O&D and 39% connex traffic is medium to high yield than it is overall a healthy split.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-20 07:47:19 and read 4178 times.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 86):
Int'l-Dom connections are a further 16% of total traffic. All conx make up 39% of TK traffic. 61% is O&D.

Keep in mind however that Intl-Dom connects are not only made in IST but also at stations like ESB, SAW for example.
So that 16% is not indicative of exclusive flow over IST.

However Intl-Intl is virtually all at IST.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Turkish350XWB
Posted 2013-03-20 10:15:15 and read 3996 times.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 80):
we might see it overtake AMS and MAD
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 82):
I think overtaking MAD is a given with the IB strikes

MAD has been overtaken in January already. For overtaking AMS in 2013, a 20% growth should be enough. So if growth continues like in jan and feb, IST will become 4th in the european ranking after LHR, CDG, FRA.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-03-20 11:15:45 and read 3845 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 87):
Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 86):
Int'l-Dom connections are a further 16% of total traffic. All conx make up 39% of TK traffic. 61% is O&D.

If half of that 61% O&D and 39% connex traffic is medium to high yield than it is overall a healthy split.

Yes, very healthy. No wonder TK is able to expand quickly. Thank you for the numbers leftyboarder.

Quoting Turkish350XWB (Reply 89):
MAD has been overtaken in January already.

Due to lagging data, I hadn't seen that. Do you have a link?

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Turkish350XWB
Posted 2013-03-20 11:34:33 and read 3756 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 90):

Due to lagging data, I hadn't seen that. Do you have a link?

Well it is my calculation based on the very important assumption that MAD has not grown in jan. I think this is true.

MAD pax for 2012 is 45,195,014.
IST pax for 2012 is 45.091.962 passengers (btw, the last time when i checked it was 44,998,508 as also written in wikipedia. why did these numbers change???).
Anyway...
In jan13 IST counted 3.570.582 pax, in jan 12 it was 2.971.519. The difference is 599.063.
So in feb12-jan13 period IST has overtaken MAD.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-03-20 12:06:16 and read 3701 times.

Quoting Turkish350XWB (Reply 91):
In jan13 IST counted 3.570.582 pax, in jan 12 it was 2.971.519. The difference is 599.063.

Out of curiosity, where did these numbers come from? That was the link I was looking for. I think your assumption MAD did not grow is quite safe.  

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: toxtethogrady
Posted 2013-03-20 13:17:52 and read 3594 times.

"I'd add DFW to that list too."

And IAH.

A lot is going to depend on who the winning consortium is. TAV, in addition to being local, probably has the capital to complete this project, but 42 months is an incredibly aggressive construction schedule. Plus, I figure they need to work out any number of kinks in the planning and design. So a 2017 open date starting today will require them to hit the ground running.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: Turkish350XWB
Posted 2013-03-20 14:51:09 and read 3478 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 92):
Out of curiosity, where did these numbers come from? That was the link I was looking for. I think your assumption MAD did not grow is quite safe.
http://www.dhmiata.gov.tr
>Istatistikler on the left side...

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: tkfan
Posted 2013-03-20 18:10:09 and read 3323 times.

Quoting Turkish350XWB (Reply 91):
Well it is my calculation based on the very important assumption that MAD has not grown in jan. I think this is true.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 92):
I think your assumption MAD did not grow is quite safe.

Your assumptions were right, MAD even lost quite some pax.


MAD
Jan 2.909.725 -13.0%
Feb 2.636.544 -16.2%

IST
Jan 3.570.582 +21.2%
Feb 3.530.981 +25.4%

For reference AMS
Jan 3.391.926 -1.1%
Feb 3.271.022 -1.0%

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-03-20 19:22:27 and read 3231 times.

Quoting tkfan (Reply 95):
MAD
Jan 2.909.725 -13.0%
Feb 2.636.544 -16.2%

IST
Jan 3.570.582 +21.2%
Feb 3.530.981 +25.4%

That is quite a quick 'leap ahead.'   

Quoting tkfan (Reply 95):
For reference AMS
Jan 3.391.926 -1.1%
Feb 3.271.022 -1.0%

I assume a set of slow months as otherwise, how did they do over 47million pax in 2012 Jan-Nov per Wikipedia?

While IST has overtaken AMS seasonally, it will probably take IST two to three more years before doing so completely... Which might be delayed due to lack of infrastructure at IST. Now, that would be buck a hickup in TK's growth, but due to the new airport not due before 2017, AMS might be safe for a few more years...

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: tkfan
Posted 2013-03-20 19:56:06 and read 3187 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 96):

Its not easy to overtake AMS so soon. Amstertam has a nice infrastructure and plenty room for more volumes.

you are right, it seems its a seasonal thing.

Jun 12
AMS 4.618.002
MAD 4.161.523
IST 4.043.782

Jul 12
AMS 5.224.913
MAD 4.532.651
IST 4.334.639

Aug 12
AMS 5.139.235
IST 4.354.281
MAD 4.305.470

Sep 12
AMS 4.761.804
IST 4.303.920
MAD 4.085.844


I dont know if Atatürk Airport can handle >5 Million Pax/Month.
Its maybe doable when TK shifts more traffic between 2am and 6am.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: turkishsky
Posted 2013-03-21 00:24:35 and read 3074 times.

Quoting tkfan (Reply 97):

Assuming that IST will grow a massive 20% to 25% each month of this year, figures should be between:

JUN
4,852,538 and 5,054,727

JUL
5,201,566 and 5,481,298

AUG
5,225,137 and 5,442,851

SEP
5,164,704 and 5,379,900

These are bigger than any Amsterdam figures of 2012 and if you consider it is shrinking at the moment we can easily foresee that IST will take ove AMS end of 2013

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: tkfan
Posted 2013-03-21 06:28:07 and read 2844 times.

Quoting turkishsky (Reply 98):

Its not a given, that IST can sustain 20-25% grow rate in summer... Atatürk Airport suffered a lot last summer.

and I doubt although if any enlargements of the parking areas will be ready for summer, the terminals are not sufficient for 5Mio/month....

only doable with 24h full operation.

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: JoKeR
Posted 2013-03-21 07:06:58 and read 2797 times.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 3):
We have this (rather blurry) animation of how it might look eventually:

http://zaman.com.tr/multimedia_getGa...33116

That is one big airport! But TK needs it if it is to continue growing at the current pace. But airport alone will not solve the other major problem - airspace congestion!

BTW, happy to see them rework a balkans tune for the video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECN97pZSkLI

Topic: RE: IST Plans The World's Biggest Airport: 150 Mio Pax
Username: leftyboarder
Posted 2013-03-21 07:15:29 and read 2770 times.

Quoting JoKeR (Reply 100):
BTW, happy to see them rework a balkans tune for the video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECN97...ZSkLI

Don't .know if they did any rework as that is pretty much how I've heard it for decades.. After all it is a Turkish folk song as well...: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katibim


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