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Topic: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-03-19 09:54:57 and read 5125 times.

The new AA will have a hub setup and fleet mix that positions it well for launching services to Africa. Is new AA likely to do so, and if so, what would the route map look like in, say, 5 years' time?

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: cha747
Posted 2013-03-19 10:10:49 and read 5055 times.

The anet crystal ball will get back to you a week from next Tuesday.

I'm no expert (just an armchair CEO) but I'd think that the combined company would want to concentrate on their strengths and improve their weaknesses before entering markets that only Pan Am and to a smaller extent TWA had any expertise with.

Then again, 5 years from now one of the newly-created big three may cease to even exist....

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-03-19 10:22:15 and read 5003 times.

Not sure I am sold on a heavy African expansion. They may launch a couple new destinations, but I would be shocked if it amounted to anything the size of DL's African expansion.

According to the article below, it sounds like post merger, AA will be focusing on strengthening its South American ties. The article states that AA will be looking to add Sao Paolo to Los Angeles in 2013 and Chicago in 2014 as well as Charlotte in 2013 and Philadelphia in 2014.

In addition, the article states that American is also building a presence in the South America to Asia market.

"For two decades, people have speculated that one day Miami will have non-stop flights to Asia. While that remains a possibility, Torno said that in the near term "we are working hard to put that traffic over DFW," which has flights from four key South American cities -- Buenos Aires; Caracas; Santiago, Chile and Sao Paulo -- with service to Bogota and Lima scheduled to begin this year.".

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11871...merica.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-03-19 11:11:26 and read 4889 times.

Miami and JFK are particularly strong gateways for prospective Africa flying, likely stronger than even ATL. I totally understand that pre-BK AA lacked the fleet mix and cost structure to make a go of flying to sub-Saharan Africa, but I have to think that they're looking at the boatloads of money pulled in through the JBA for folks continuing via LHR to Africa, and wondering if there's a chance of going nonstop (and/or one-stop to South Africa) from the USA.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-19 13:33:58 and read 4677 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 2):
"we are working hard to put that traffic over DFW," which has flights from four key South American cities -- Buenos Aires; Caracas; Santiago, Chile and Sao Paulo

DFW-GIG is missing from that list  

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: jfklganyc
Posted 2013-03-19 14:13:19 and read 4562 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 3):

Miami and JFK are particularly strong gateways for prospective Africa flying, likely stronger than even ATL. I totally understand that pre-BK AA lacked the fleet mix and cost structure to make a go of flying to sub-Saharan Africa, but I have to think that they're looking at the boatloads of money pulled in through the JBA for folks continuing via LHR to Africa, and wondering if there's a chance of going nonstop (and/or one-stop to South Africa) from the USA.

But Delta flies the African routes from JFK.

Along with a bunch of African airlines.

How much demand is there really?

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-03-19 14:20:33 and read 4527 times.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 5):
But Delta flies the African routes from JFK.

Along with a bunch of African airlines.

How much demand is there really?

Apart from a few key destinations, dont' know how much opportunity there is left in Africa from the USA. DL would dearly like to get NBO finally started and probably restart CAI as things improve there.....

AA (and more so UA) would do fine in JNB.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-19 14:29:02 and read 4489 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 3):
Miami and JFK are particularly strong gateways for prospective Africa flying, likely stronger than even ATL

JFK sure. I dont know if I agree with MIA. I think MIA is a likely jumping off point to JNB (should there be one) for AA.

ATL-Africa is a larger local market, has the larger hub, and has the same geographic benefits. I dont know if I agree that MIA would be stronger.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: sonomaflyer
Posted 2013-03-19 15:27:17 and read 4387 times.

The African continent in general has made some great strides economically. However, their business ties are more with Asia (read China) and Europe than the U.S.

There will need to be more business connections between the U.S. and Africa before any airline seeks to expand from the U.S. out to Africa. DL will pretty much have the field to itself for a while yet.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-03-19 18:04:04 and read 4068 times.

I'd like to see AA connect MIA to West Africa. Lots of cultural connections between the Caribbean and western Africa that could flow easily across the MIA hub...if the yields were there.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: luckyone
Posted 2013-03-19 18:10:03 and read 4046 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 9):
I'd like to see AA connect MIA to West Africa. Lots of cultural connections between the Caribbean and western Africa that could flow easily across the MIA hub...if the yields were there.

I disagree. Most of those cultural ties were forcibly obliterated. Once removed from the African continent the people then sold as slaves had their traditions stripped from them. Most Afro-Caribbeans today do not even know from whence they came. Some traditions survive today, but radically altered, and over time a mostly new culture developed. People in the Caribbean turn their attention toward their respective former colonizer, the United States, and increasingly China for business and development and education.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-03-19 18:17:14 and read 4011 times.

AA needs to build up Asia where they lag way behind UA and DL. Once they've improved their positioning in that important market they can start branching out into more unique markets.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: N62NA
Posted 2013-03-19 19:34:23 and read 3881 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 9):
I'd like to see AA connect MIA to West Africa. Lots of cultural connections between the Caribbean and western Africa that could flow easily across the MIA hub...if the yields were there.

Wouldn't people doing that require a visa merely to connect in MIA? If so, probably not worth the hassle of going to a U.S. embassy and being subject to the indignity that is a visit with a U.S. visa officer.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: ORDTLV2414
Posted 2013-03-19 20:02:54 and read 3790 times.

I dont think so. AA's route network isn''t there yet. Also Africa flights are done best out of IAD which is not a AA hub nor are there signifcant AA or US for that matter resources at IAD. AA doesn't even operate ORD-IAD anymore. I think for right now it will just utilize its one world partners.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-03-20 05:34:44 and read 3469 times.

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 8):
The African continent in general has made some great strides economically. However, their business ties are more with Asia (read China) and Europe than the U.S.

The United States is the largest trading partner for sub-Saharan Africa, though China is indeed quickly closing the gap as #2.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: dolphinflyer
Posted 2013-03-20 06:48:10 and read 3349 times.

AA should fly the triangle MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA with a 777.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2013-03-20 09:18:32 and read 2749 times.

Quoting ORDTLV2414 (Reply 13):
Also Africa flights are done best out of IAD which is not a AA hub nor are there significant AA or US for that matter resources at IAD.

Given the substantial fares, surprising, UA picked up some diplomatic and VFR traffic on its IAD and IAH to Africa flights.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-20 10:07:16 and read 2507 times.

Quoting ORDTLV2414 (Reply 13):
Also Africa flights are done best out of IAD

There's no denying Washington is a very large local market to many African nations, but United quickly ended Dulles-Lagos and Dulles-Accra, so I don't agree that is accurate.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-20 10:14:30 and read 2481 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 17):
There's no denying Washington is a very large local market to many African nations, but United quickly ended Dulles-Lagos and Dulles-Accra, so I don't agree that is accurate.

Outside of JFK, IAD is going to be the best gateway to Africa without a doubt. Its the next largest gateway and has the hub and geographic location.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: ScottB
Posted 2013-03-20 14:40:17 and read 2294 times.

Quoting avek00 (Thread starter):
The new AA will have a hub setup and fleet mix that positions it well for launching services to Africa.

The "old AA" had exactly the same set of somewhat favorable hubs for Africa service; the "new AA" gains little for Africa service by adding PHL/CLT/DCA/PHX. The likely gateways would still be JFK or MIA.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 3):
Miami and JFK are particularly strong gateways for prospective Africa flying, likely stronger than even ATL

JFK is a decent gateway for Africa due to the the relatively large African immigrant population (second only to WAS). But ATL is 3rd and MIA doesn't even break the top 10. The meaningful ties in the MIA area would be to South Africa.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
JFK sure. I dont know if I agree with MIA. I think MIA is a likely jumping off point to JNB (should there be one) for AA.

ATL-Africa is a larger local market, has the larger hub, and has the same geographic benefits. I dont know if I agree that MIA would be stronger.

   MIA lacks the vast scope of domestic connections which ATL offers, and connections to LOS (as an example) are generally shorter over ATL from any point north or west of ATL.

Quoting luckyone (Reply 10):
Most of those cultural ties were forcibly obliterated. Once removed from the African continent the people then sold as slaves had their traditions stripped from them. Most Afro-Caribbeans today do not even know from whence they came. Some traditions survive today, but radically altered, and over time a mostly new culture developed. People in the Caribbean turn their attention toward their respective former colonizer, the United States, and increasingly China for business and development and education.

   While certain words and cultural practices in the Caribbean have African roots, you'd be hard-pressed to find any Caribbean natives of African descent actually speaking an African language today. The persons brought over in the slave trade had no opportunities to keep contact with the family/friends/tribal groups from which they were forcibly taken away. Keep in mind that only a few of the nations that exist now in Africa existed at the time of the slave trade, and that those who had been enslaved probably had learned little of the world beyond their tribe/village and perhaps some neighboring areas.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-03-21 11:10:48 and read 1981 times.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 19):
The "old AA" had exactly the same set of somewhat favorable hubs for Africa service; the "new AA" gains little for Africa service by adding PHL/CLT/DCA/PHX. The likely gateways would still be JFK or MIA.

While the hubs add little to the mix as far as Africa service goes, the huge market share gain due to adding the US network and FF base is much more important. AA may well have the critical mass necessary, notwithstanding any fleet or hub location deficiencies.

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-03-21 13:27:19 and read 1856 times.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 19):
MIA lacks the vast scope of domestic connections which ATL offers, and connections to LOS (as an example) are generally shorter over ATL from any point north or west of ATL.

Miami might not have as many destinations than Atlanta, but most Africa traffic centers around New York, DC and California. Miami can compete with DL in that traffic flow. Even so, there has to be enough O&D in South Florida to give the right mix. I can see South Africa but definitely not West Africa. In the case of Lagos, DL and UA have a good grasp on those markets. Accra is well served and I am skeptical that the rest of the West Africa could sustain another US link.

Cairo and Casablanca maybe?

Topic: RE: Chances Of AA/US Expanding Into Africa
Username: flymia
Posted 2013-03-21 18:36:07 and read 1701 times.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 19):
MIA lacks the vast scope of domestic connections which ATL offers, and connections to LOS (as an example) are generally shorter over ATL from any point north or west of ATL.


I have seen people say this a few times now lately and when talking about adding Miami-Macon Gerogia compared to that flight to ATL it makes sense but it makes absolutely zero sense when talking about long haul international flights. I don't think too many people traveling from Africa are planning on stopping in Chattanoga or Omaha. LA, DC, NYC, Boston, San Fran are probably more important stops which Miami is connected to all the major cities international visitors are going to visit usually.


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