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Topic: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-15 14:00:47 and read 27162 times.

DOT has issues notice that it invites carriers to submit application for award of additional rights that are becoming available between the nations.

While the US and Brazil in 2011 reach and agreement to establish openskies, the agreement has stages that slowly liberalize market access through 2016.

Under the agreed terms, the US side is afforded the following additional rights effective October 2013:

Passenger carriers:
o 14 weekly frequencies to any point in Brazil
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro.

Cargo carrier rights:
o 14 weekly frequencies to any point in Brazil


Application submissions are due by March 2, 2013.


It is important to note that US side already has 24 unallocated passenger frequencies along with 34 cargo frequencies, however none are available to the coveted Sao Paulo and Rio markets.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: B6JFKH81
Posted 2013-02-15 14:12:24 and read 27217 times.

Hello B6, you are now at the corner of:



A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-15 14:15:03 and read 27185 times.

UA should apply for EWR-GIG.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-15 14:17:20 and read 27153 times.

OH can you smell the opportunity CLT ? Brazil the close and welcoming of Americans Emerging market country. Usairways should take advantage of this like a duck to water. A330 to GRU is the goal.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-15 14:19:07 and read 27095 times.

JetBlue could start Brazil tomorrow. As mentioned there are 24 unallocated weekly frequencies available.

These new slot opportunities are really only a beneficial for carriers that seek to serve hard to get access in Rio or Sao Paulo - two markets too far for an A320 (they are ~4100miles)

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-02-15 14:22:11 and read 27048 times.

Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-02-15 14:22:25 and read 27040 times.

Translation. 14 weekly to GRU. 14 weekly to GIG. 14 additional slots that won't be used at all.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-02-15 14:31:41 and read 26968 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

Good question for GRU. I'm curious if AA would be interested in LAX, since Korean doesn't really count.

I have a feeling that any additional slots would go to adding frequency over new destinations. Other than LAX, I can't think of any other hub that would be able to fill the slots that doesn't have a flight already. Maybe PHL, but that's a long shot with CLT coming.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-15 14:32:31 and read 26965 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):

OH can you smell the opportunity CLT ? Brazil the close and welcoming of Americans Emerging market country. Usairways should take advantage of this like a duck to water. A330 to GRU is the goal.


US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-15 14:51:43 and read 26846 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
OH can you smell the opportunity CLT ?

Nope, sure cant.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

Id have to look, but Im pretty sure Boston is the largest market in the US without nonstop service to Brazil.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

I dont know. CLT-GRU may not be a bad flight if they can get the times right.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: CODC10
Posted 2013-02-15 15:07:01 and read 26730 times.

Resumption of the former CO EWR-GIG with a sUA 767-300ER makes sense.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-02-15 15:16:52 and read 26665 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

I dont know. CLT-GRU may not be a bad flight if they can get the times right.

CLT is the third biggest hub in the US based on single airline passenger numbers just behind DFW. There is far more connecting traffic that goes through CLT than MIA, so it wouldn't surprise me if there is still a market even after a merger. It might in fact grow with the AA brand strong in South America and all the connection opportunities in CLT.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: martinrpo1
Posted 2013-02-15 15:38:59 and read 26572 times.

LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA. I see them applying to more secondary cities such as Fortaleza, Curitiba, Campinas, and Natal from MIA.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2013-02-15 15:44:18 and read 26514 times.

The big three being GIG, GRU and BSB

As WAG's go I can see F9 from asking for DEN-GIG for no other reason than to connect the Olympic training facility in COS.

AS from somewhere but not necessarily SEA Im not sure if the 738 or 739 has the range to fly non-stop SEA- Brazil possibly from ATL or MCI.

I would also think somewhere on the U.S. Canadian border. Other cities/airports in play would be MIA, ATL, NYC, DFW, CLT and LAX

As armchair route planning goes I also wonder if there might be an opportunity for B6 from SJU to any of the Brazil three Possibly using MCO as a launching city. SJU being a U.S. territory should qualify as a U.S. open sky city

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-02-15 16:06:59 and read 26428 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
none are available to the coveted Sao Paulo and Rio markets.

Actually, 7 are immediately available for GIG service.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):

UA should apply for EWR-GIG.
Quoting CODC10 (Reply 10):

Resumption of the former CO EWR-GIG with a sUA 767-300ER makes sense.

If UA were interested, they would have already started the route, since like I mentioned, there are 7 GIG-eligible frequencies available.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mhkansan
Posted 2013-02-15 16:31:37 and read 26305 times.

Brazil is amazingly important for AA. I wonder if we'll see the maturation of ORD-GRU/GIG service on AA or perhaps additions to secondary markets from DFW or more frequencies from MIA... LAX-GRU perhaps?

I sure hope we'll see a strong submission for new service from AA!

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-15 16:32:13 and read 26294 times.

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):

LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA. I see them applying to more secondary cities such as Fortaleza, Curitiba, Campinas, and Natal from MIA.


LAXGIG wold never work. PHLGRU makes no sense when AA flies JFKGRU twice a day. LAXGRU I don't think is too far fetched, especially because AA will have 2-class 772s in about a year.

AA has already announced Curitiba. It and Porto Alegre launch in November 2013.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-15 16:33:56 and read 26289 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

PDEWs - not really that much, other than the New York City area, Miami, and Orlando......

Brazil-U.S.A is a long distance. The flight with the least distance is MIA-MAO, and that is 2400+ milies. Most flights are are in the 4000-5000 miles range.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 11):
CLT is the third biggest hub in the US based on single airline passenger numbers just behind DFW. There is far more connecting traffic that goes through CLT than MIA, so it wouldn't surprise me if there is still a market even after a merger. It might in fact grow with the AA brand strong in South America and all the connection opportunities in CLT.

CLT-GIG is about a total of 20 pax per day, even with its nonstop. CLT-GRU is about another 20 pax per day. Really don't want to be bubble-busting here, but I really have doubts that this flight is going to remain...... in fact..... probably one of the first routes the new AA/US cuts.........

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
It is important to note that US side already has 24 unallocated passenger frequencies along with 34 cargo frequencies, however none are available to the coveted Sao Paulo and Rio markets.

I can see why. Of the top 50 U.S. metro area, the New York City area, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles, Orlando, San Francisco, Washington DC and oddly enough Las Vegas manage anything over 100 pax per day to Sao Paulo ( Boston is at 102, but.....).

And of the 50 top metro areas in the U.S...... other than the NYC area, Miami, and Orlando, Los Angeles and Houston, most major metro area barely manage anything near 50 pax per day in the U.S. - Rio market.......

Unless anyone is predicting that the U.S. - Brazil market is going to be growing in leaps and bounds...... there is currently probably more than enough nonstops in this market.



 

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-02-15 16:38:16 and read 26247 times.

Brazil is a growing market on its own and it will continue to grow especially with the World Cup and the Olympics coming to Brazil in 2014 and 2016 we probably will see AA, DL, UA and US start adding flights into Brazil. I think AA/US will probably add the most flights followed closely by DL then I can see UA adding maybe 1 or 2 flights but UA would probably only add flights to the major cities and leave the secondary cities to AA and DL.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-15 17:02:49 and read 26124 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 17):
Unless anyone is predicting that the U.S. - Brazil market is going to be growing in leaps and bounds...... there is currently probably more than enough nonstops in this market.

But it is growing by leaps and bounds. It is has more than tripled in the last three years and growing around 15% annually.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: steex
Posted 2013-02-15 17:03:12 and read 26098 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
As WAG's go I can see F9 from asking for DEN-GIG for no other reason than to connect the Olympic training facility in COS.

AS from somewhere but not necessarily SEA Im not sure if the 738 or 739 has the range to fly non-stop SEA- Brazil possibly from ATL or MCI.

I would also think somewhere on the U.S. Canadian border. Other cities/airports in play would be MIA, ATL, NYC, DFW, CLT and LAX

I think you're greatly underestimating how far Brazil is from the USA, especially the western USA. Neither AS nor F9 operates an aircraft that can make it from the 50 states to GRU/GIG non-stop. DEN-GIG is 5085nm, slightly longer than DEN-NRT. Even MIA, which is the closest major US airport to Brazil, is over 3500nm from both GIG and GRU. A potential MIA-GRU would be about 600nm than the world's longest 737 flight, which is of course operated by a 73G.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: reffado
Posted 2013-02-15 17:06:25 and read 26079 times.

If another destination is served from BSB, I'd be impressed. Currently only connected to ATL and MIA, I could see a NYC-BSB flight. Well, I can at least dream about it.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-15 17:12:32 and read 26041 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 17):
( Boston is at 102, but.....).

BOS-Brazil is about 150 PDEW and only tertiary markets not even served via MIA have grown at a decent rate but still are small 5-10 PDEW markets.

Clearly not enough for any United States Carrier to jump on a Brazil route.
Not high yielding enough for JJ to try it and connect to other deep South America as well.
Good enough for CM to try BOS-PTY and steal some traffic from AA and DL though!


Maybe someday with a change in US immigration laws, change in Brazilian visa laws, shift in global economics we may see BOS-GRU. It could be 2-3 decades easily.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-15 17:18:15 and read 26013 times.

DL will probably apply for LAX-GRU just to get a.netters riled up about dart boards again.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-15 17:29:21 and read 25965 times.

Here are the 2011 daily pax numbers of the Top 35 U.S metro areas international markets as from the recent Brookings Institute report "to and from" Sao Paulo and Rio.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/aviation

....metro area..... Sao Paulo.... Rio

1 …. nyc …… 1167 …… 477
2 …. mia …… 1250 …… 354
3 …. lax …… 311 …… 104
4 …. sfo …… 147 …… 58
5 …. ord …… 198 …… 40
6 …. iad …… 134 …… 52
7 …. mco …… 907 …… 363
8 …. bos …… 102 …… 47
9 …. las …… 212 …… 57
10 … hnl …… 10 …… 6
11 … iah …… 67 …… 147
12 … atl …… 77 …… 38
13 … sea …… 31 …… 10
14 … dfw …… 72 …… 27
15 … phl …… 26 …… 11
16 … dtw …… 67 …… 8
17 … den …… 35 …… 15
18 … msp …… 25 …… 7
19 … phx …… 18 …… 7
20 … san …… 50 …… 22
21 … tpa …… 20 …… 14
22 … clt …… 20 …… 19
23 … pdx …… 13 …… 5
24 … bwi …… 9 …… 12
25 … rdu …… 19 …… 6
26 … stl …… 18 …… 4
27 … slc …… 21 …… 7
28 … pit …… 13 …… 5
29 … ind …… 19 …… 3
30 … msy …… 13 …… 17
31 … cle …… 16 …… 4
32 … mci …… 8 …… 3
33 … sat …… 8 …… 5
34 … aus …… 14 …… 6
35 … cvg …… 12 …… 5

…total.......5,129.........1,965



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
But it is growing by leaps and bounds. It is has more than tripled in the last three years and growing around 15% annually.

I think that it's going to have to grow more than that to fill the current available slots that are present......

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 22):
BOS-Brazil is about 150 PDEW

Okay....numbers above here are 2011 pax numbers and are stated as "to and from", so per this report, BOS would have a total of 102 + 47, or 149 here in total "to and from" both Sao Paulo and Rio. However, this is in total, not in each direction, at least this is how I would interpret the "to and from" numbers in this report.


 

[Edited 2013-02-15 17:33:24]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-02-15 17:35:28 and read 26467 times.

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
I wonder if we'll see the maturation of ORD-GRU

Well, perhaps we could see that. DL going after a second daily ATL-GRU is another possibility. It's also possible that US Airways will apply for CLT-GRU frequencies in order to replace the ones leased from UA. We don't know the details of the contract, but it might include a provision in case of merger or acquisition, so that it would automatically be rescinded.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: flyby519
Posted 2013-02-15 17:54:34 and read 26167 times.

Quoting B6JFKH81 (Reply 1):
A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

Maybe MAO? Thats about it for ~2500nm from FLL, right?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: TR1
Posted 2013-02-15 18:00:19 and read 26581 times.

How about DL JFK-GIG?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-15 18:04:08 and read 26530 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 24):
Okay....numbers above here are 2011 pax numbers and are stated as "to and from", so per this report, BOS would have a total of 102 + 47, or 149 here in total "to and from" both Sao Paulo and Rio. However, this is in total, not in each direction, at least this is how I would interpret the "to and from" numbers in this report

You are correct - Brookings report is to and from you have to divide all your numbers you crunched by two to get the each way part. Also, #2 market to Brazil from BOS is CNF (and its gone down over the years) not GIG since many Brazilians in Massachusetts are from Governador Valadares which is about 100 mi or so from CNF.

Quoting point2point (Reply 24):
I think that it's going to have to grow more than that to fill the current available slots that are present......

Secondary Brazilian Market Growth to NYC/South Florida and MCO is ridiculous. Also all the US Airlines will have a Brazilian partner in the future for connections.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: md94
Posted 2013-02-15 18:05:01 and read 26521 times.

I would love to see someone try a direct VCP flight to avoid GRU traffic and delays.

Maybe DFW, ATL or MIA - VCP?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-15 18:05:13 and read 26626 times.

Quoting klkla (Reply 23):
DL will probably apply for LAX-GRU just to get a.netters riled up about dart boards again.

Well we all know how well it worked out for DL last time with LAX-GRU.

Lasted what - a whole 7 months along with a suspension for a few weeks in between?

As Delta said in its DOT filing when it requested to move the slots to DTW instead;

"traffic has been much weaker than expected."
"Regretfully the awarded service cannot be economically supported from the Los Angeles gateway."

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2013-02-15 18:07:52 and read 26497 times.

Quoting steex (Reply 20):
I think you're greatly underestimating how far Brazil is from the USA,

I do have a geographical snapshot in my mind. I didn't check mileage. It is indeed a haul. Because F9 flies seasonally to SJO I suppose SJO could be used as a refueling stop.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: flyguy1
Posted 2013-02-15 18:11:39 and read 26467 times.

Interesting that this is announced now, as it appears one carrier Tam, is actually dropping its day flight to JFK.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-15 18:24:02 and read 26409 times.

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):

LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA.

First two could work for DL too.

Quoting reffado (Reply 21):
If another destination is served from BSB, I'd be impressed. Currently only connected to ATL and MIA, I could see a NYC-BSB flight. Well, I can at least dream about it.

What about IAH-BSB

Quoting klkla (Reply 23):
DL will probably apply for LAX-GRU just to get a.netters riled up about dart boards again.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 30):
Well we all know how well it worked out for DL last time with LAX-GRU.

Times change, and this time DL has much more feed at LAX than before. And don't forget DL has sales teams in Brazil now too...

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-15 18:27:39 and read 26362 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 28):
You are correct - Brookings report is to and from you have to divide all your numbers you crunched by two to get the each way part. Also, #2 market to Brazil from BOS is CNF (and its gone down over the years) not GIG since many Brazilians in Massachusetts are from Governador Valadares which is about 100 mi or so from CNF.

Here's the Boston pax numbers to Brazil stated in the report

Sao Paulo……. 102
Belo Horizonte ……. 64
Rio de Janeiro……. 47
Grande Vitoria……. 22
Brasilia…….14
Goiania…….11
Florianopolis…….10
Curitiba…….9

Total........279

So yes, stating that Boston Brazil traffic is at 150 PDEW may be more or less accruate, but it's to about 8 different destinations spread about a country that is quite far away and very large in land area. To have nonstop flights Boston-Brazil, well..... Miami would be a very good connect place...... traffic just isn't large enough for such long flights with Boston.......

Quoting flyguy1 (Reply 32):
Interesting that this is announced now, as it appears one carrier Tam, is actually dropping its day flight to JFK.

The irony, eh?

 

[Edited 2013-02-15 18:34:55]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-15 18:39:51 and read 26184 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 30):
Well we all know how well it worked out for DL last time with LAX-GRU.

Lasted what - a whole 7 months along with a suspension for a few weeks in between?

I know. I was only joking. Although the fact that it was only 3 times a week and never promoted also contributed to the failure.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
Times change, and this time DL has much more feed at LAX than before. And don't forget DL has sales teams in Brazil now too...

Well, we can always hope. I tried it a few times when it was running last time and it was a big convenenience for LAX based travelers.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-02-15 18:46:20 and read 26154 times.

I don't think any airline will apply for these frequencies.

All airlines are expecting lower LF for the upcoming months and economic situation do not secure future growth in a sustainable way.

Any new route will mean share the current loads for the routes already being operated.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-15 18:54:28 and read 26164 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

Why would AA discontinue CLT to Sao Paulo ? AA has never discontinued a flight to GRU, its been a license to print money for them, why else would they have 4 flights from Miami to GRU Daily.

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):
LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA. I see them applying to more secondary cities such as Fortaleza, Curitiba, Campinas, and Natal from MIA.

All the secondary cities are viable from MIA since 737 and 757 can reach the more northern ones. PHL to GIG and GRU should be a goal, hey if DL can fly from Detroit, PHL should be easy.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: BOStonsox
Posted 2013-02-15 18:58:45 and read 26048 times.

I think the only way we'll see BOS-GRU anytime soon would be if an Asian carrier like JL had fifth-freedom rights and flew something like NRT-BOS-GRU. I know JL used to do it through JFK and LAX.

FLL-MAO is within range of the A320. MAO does have AA service to MIA. FLL-BEL is about 130 miles longer than BOS-SFO, but BEL doesn't have international service so if B6 starts Brazil service, it will be FLL-MAO.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-02-15 19:21:45 and read 25932 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 37):
Why would AA discontinue CLT to Sao Paulo ? AA has never discontinued a flight to GRU, its been a license to print money for them, why else would they have 4 flights from Miami to GRU Daily.

CLT-GIG is at much greater risk than CLT-GRU. The Sao Paulo - USA market is overall about double the size of Rio - USA and it is much richer. AA can use CLT-GRU to ensure that every small market in the US served by DL through ATL has an alternative through CLT on AA. I wouldn't count it out right now but anything is possible.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: rwy04lga
Posted 2013-02-15 19:47:52 and read 25677 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 18):
We probably will see....US start adding flights into Brazil.

I'll betcha we won't!

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: as739x
Posted 2013-02-15 21:06:34 and read 25330 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
AS from somewhere but not necessarily SEA Im not sure if the 738 or 739 has the range to fly non-stop SEA- Brazil possibly from ATL or MCI.

Not a chance. From MIA the 739ER would get its feet wet in the south Amazon. AS has no business doing Brazil, they have codeshares

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Cactus739
Posted 2013-02-15 21:55:50 and read 25130 times.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
As WAG's go I can see F9 from asking for DEN-GIG for no other reason than to connect the Olympic training facility in COS.

That's cute... can't make COS-PHX or anywhere else in the US work...so let's drop an Airbus on COS-Brazil... lol

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: STT757
Posted 2013-02-16 04:12:15 and read 24164 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
What about IAH-BSB

EWR-BSB is actually a shorter route than IAH-BSB, however it's still outside the 757s range.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: GentFromAlaska
Posted 2013-02-16 06:52:47 and read 23498 times.

Quoting Cactus739 (Reply 42):

F9 seems to do well in Central America seasonally; I hear SJO is really doing well. Thus being the case why not try South America. Do I see in happening in a ULCC model; Not in the immediate future. Possibly as we get closer to 2016 and the Rio games. They were one of the first if not the first to jump on DEN-Mexico service some eight years after the DOT solicited western markets to various Mexico destinations.

It is my understanding PHX is one of F9 better performing markets from the DEN hub. When I checked last they offered six daily DEN-PHX flights

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-16 07:19:00 and read 23351 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 43):

Not to mention EWR-BSB is much larger a local than IAH-BSB. If UA expands Brazil from IAH, it can only be to CNF. No other Brazil route could possibly work from IAH.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: PIEAvantiP180
Posted 2013-02-16 07:44:42 and read 23187 times.

Ok ok ill throw my self into the lions den and ask this, how about DL starting MIA-GRU, GIG. Every believer of DL will make MIA into a hub only if they could get GRU-GIG frequencies, well this is as good of an opportunity as any. All joking aside does anybody see AA asking for more GRU frequencies? Can MIA or maybe DFW support more service? I also believe AA would have the best chance of making it out of any of the carrier capable of flying LAX-GRU,GIG. Is this the year we see then try this route?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2013-02-16 08:09:18 and read 23041 times.

It's hard to believe loads are weak with the current fares... Anyway, just my two cents.

Pipeline dreams for me would be any flight to LAX or SFO.

I actually think Delta could give a shot at ATL-CNF, they applied for it in the original opening of frequencies back in 2008, if memory serves me correctly. Better chance to work than ill-fated attempts at FOR and MAO from ATL.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: realsim
Posted 2013-02-16 08:27:40 and read 22983 times.

Now that AA is solving their cost problems, I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

However, if TAM finally joins OneWorld and AA intends to form some kind of partership with them, maybe we won't see many more routes to avoid more market concentration and ease its approval.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-16 08:37:42 and read 22891 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 34):
Sao Paulo……. 102
Belo Horizonte ……. 64
Rio de Janeiro……. 47

Never realized Belo was a bigger market than Rio.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
F9 seems to do well in Central America seasonally; I hear SJO is really doing well. Thus being the case why not try South America.

If that is the case, then they should do more C. America. SJO does fine although the LIR flights have hurt the overall LF.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-02-16 08:39:04 and read 22936 times.

DL doing MIA-GRU/GIG in cooperation with Gol is not out of the question.

Who really knows, but I think people should keep in mind that whatever DL does, it will be doing with Gol as a partner. This is a relationship that is headed toward ATI and possibly a JV once Open Skies is in place.

ATL-GRU #2 is my first bet though.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-16 09:00:13 and read 22822 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
Times change, and this time DL has much more feed at LAX than before. And don't forget DL has sales teams in Brazil now too...

Actually during the last build up, Delta was just as big at LAX and served a larger set of destinations then currently.

Quoting realsim (Reply 48):
I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

Have you looked at AA's schedules to China, PEK in particular ?

Unless you expect customer to sit around ORD for 12-hrs waiting for their connecting Brazil flight, using ORD as a connection point between is not an attractive strategy.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: PIEAvantiP180
Posted 2013-02-16 09:44:49 and read 22546 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 51):
Actually during the last build up, Delta was just as big at LAX and served a larger set of destinations then currently.

While that is true, DL's LAX-GRU flight was flown at or near the lowest operating levels that DL operated out of LAX, about 2 years after the last build up occurred.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: delta2ual
Posted 2013-02-16 10:03:59 and read 22385 times.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
UA should apply for EWR-GIG.

  

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: FSDan
Posted 2013-02-16 10:24:18 and read 22277 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 37):
PHL to GIG and GRU should be a goal, hey if DL can fly from Detroit, PHL should be easy.

PHL-GRU would not even be close to being easy. DTW has auto-industry connections to provide at least some premium traffic, and also flights from NRT, NGO, ICN, PEK, and PVG to connect Asia passengers on to GRU. Also, ORD is the only competition geographically speaking, whereas PHL has JFK, EWR, and IAD just down the road. I would be very surprised to ever see PHL-GRU.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 51):
Actually during the last build up, Delta was just as big at LAX and served a larger set of destinations then currently.

They were not quite as big as they are now. They may have served more destinations, but those were the likes of LMM, LTO, LAP, CUL, etc. with ERJs. Now they serve a bunch of significant West Coast cities with large RJs and higher frequencies.

Not saying that LAX-GRU would work for them if they tried it again, but they definitely are in a much more solid position than last time they tried.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXSTEW
Posted 2013-02-16 10:37:44 and read 22174 times.

Quoting FSDan (Reply 54):
Not saying that LAX-GRU would work for them if they tried it again, but they definitely are in a much more solid position than last time they tried.

could time it this go-around to connect with HND? maybe?? *hopes*

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-02-16 10:37:48 and read 22231 times.

The biggest obstacle to US-Brazil will be the lack of adequate equipment. Other than the 757, any other plane is just too big for service to/from most secondary cities in either country. The NEO/MAX may change some of that but even the likes of BOS-Brazil will be too far. All the focus of NEO/MAX has been on TATL routes, but I bet there are far more markets in US-S.America that will benefit from it.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 22):
Maybe someday with a change in US immigration laws, change in Brazilian visa laws, shift in global economics we may see BOS-GRU. It could be 2-3 decades easily.

I don't think immigration policy has anything to do with it. We already have 100+ PDEW and growing so people are doing it. The problem is yields and adequate aircraft. The market is big but not big enough for a 4,000nm route which can't be flown with anything smaller than a 757, and none of the airlines that could make money on such a low yield route (i.e. B6), have 757's or anything with the range. BOS-Brazil will have to wait for the next gen narrowbody.

To me the next logical routes from the US are from LAX, SFO, and ORD with the B788. BOS would be a distant 4th. But then again, DL does fly BOS-LHR and BOS-AMS so anything can happen I guess 

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: PanAm747LHR
Posted 2013-02-16 10:47:56 and read 22162 times.

All this talk about AA and UA but little mention of DL. I smell JFK-GIG coming onboard, and maybe another crack at some secondary cities out of ATL now that we're tied up with GOL? Also, it'd be nice to see them start up LAX-GRU again. A) the cooperation with GOL should certainly help and B) DL would be very smart to time the flight to connect with NRT or HND this time around. Let's see what happens!

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-02-16 15:12:25 and read 21419 times.

Quoting B6JFKH81 (Reply 1):
A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

An A320 may be able to fly FLL-BEL. But BEL-U.S. market may be quite tiny.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Passenger carriers:
o 14 weekly frequencies to any point in Brazil
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro.

Does VCP counts as São Paulo or as "any point in Brazil"?

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
SJU being a U.S. territory should qualify as a U.S. open sky city

The only Brazilian market which may work out of SJU is perhaps GRU. Maybe if B6 is so desperate for Brazil, it should study SJU-GRU, specially if SJU has open skies with Brazil.

As my selection for most viable new routes between U.S. and Brazil:
UA EWR-GIG (former CO route)
UA EWR-CNF
US CLT-GRU
AA MIA-POA/CWB
AA MIA-VCP
And a dream route;
UA EWR-SSA-JNB

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: RodRB
Posted 2013-02-16 16:18:02 and read 21270 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 58):
Does VCP counts as São Paulo or as "any point in Brazil"?

VCP counts as São Paulo.

Quoting realsim (Reply 48):
Now that AA is solving their cost problems, I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

The problem with connections to Asia is still the VISA.

AA, DL and UA cannot compete in equal conditions with EK, QR, EY, BA, LH, AF, SN, TK etc..

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-02-16 16:41:15 and read 21204 times.

Quoting RodRB (Reply 59):
VCP counts as São Paulo.

This is bad for Campinas O/D traffic. If given the chance, pretty sure AA would jump to the possibility to fly MIA-VCP if no Sao Paulo (read GRU) slots were needed.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-16 17:18:20 and read 21165 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 50):

Agreed. Most likely ATL#2 outside chance of MIA-GRU.

Quoting PanAm747LHR (Reply 57):
I smell JFK-GIG coming onboard,

Delta could start this tomorrow. IMO the only chance of a GIG flight is if they do what Jet said. Start both GRU/GIG from MIA

Quoting PanAm747LHR (Reply 57):
Also, it'd be nice to see them start up LAX-GRU again.

Wont happen.

Quoting PanAm747LHR (Reply 57):
B) DL would be very smart to time the flight to connect with NRT or HND this time around

TYO has three other flights they can get to GRU on. (ATL/JFK/DTW)

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-02-16 18:07:51 and read 21066 times.

Quoting FSDan (Reply 54):
PHL-GRU would not even be close to being easy. DTW has auto-industry connections to provide at least some premium traffic, and also flights from NRT, NGO, ICN, PEK, and PVG to connect Asia passengers on to GRU. Also, ORD is the only competition geographically speaking, whereas PHL has JFK, EWR, and IAD just down the road. I would be very surprised to ever see PHL-GRU.

With all the feed US has at PHL feeding a flight to Sao Paulo would require no additional feed then the existing feed for the European flights. IF the reasons listed above for Detroit are true then Delta should have all its flights to GRU from DTW and not ATL, but they feed ATL, as we know all too well. Most international flights out of PHL longer then 6 hours probably wouldn't be possible if it were not for the hub.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: embrider
Posted 2013-02-16 19:27:15 and read 20910 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 24):
..metro area..... Sao Paulo.... Rio

1….nyc……1167……477
2….mia……1250……354
3….lax……311……104
4….sfo……147……58
5….ord……198……40
6….iad……134……52
7….mco……907……363
8….bos……102……47
9….las……212……57
10…hnl……10……6
11…iah……67……147
12…atl……77……38
13…sea……31……10
14…dfw……72……27
15…phl……26……11
16…dtw……67……8
17…den……35……15
18…msp……25……7
19…phx……18……7
20…san……50……22
21…tpa……20……14
22…clt……20……19
23…pdx……13……5
24…bwi……9……12
25…rdu……19……6
26…stl……18……4
27…slc……21……7
28…pit……13……5
29…ind……19……3
30…msy……13……17
31…cle……16……4
32…mci……8……3
33…sat……8……5
34…aus……14……6
35…cvg……12……5

…total.......5,129.........1,965

Thanks for the information. Very nice. Do you know what is the total daily offer of seats for GRU and GIG from US?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MCOflyer
Posted 2013-02-16 21:20:16 and read 20762 times.

What about the cargo slots?? Will FX or UPS apply for increased services or some smaller airline attempt to start service??

KH

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-02-17 06:02:10 and read 20506 times.

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 64):
What about the cargo slots?? Will FX or UPS apply for increased services or some smaller airline attempt to start service??

Corgo flights to Brazil is a tricky business because Brazil imposes huge import taxes on goods. In a way what's driving this boom in passengers traffic to the US are these import taxes which makes shopping in the US a much cheaper alternative even when you include the price of the air fare. There's some pressure in Brazil for reform on these import taxes. If it happens that could have a significant negative impact on the passenger traffic.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MCOflyer
Posted 2013-02-17 07:12:42 and read 20366 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 65):

Corgo flights to Brazil is a tricky business because Brazil imposes huge import taxes on goods. In a way what's driving this boom in passengers traffic to the US are these import taxes which makes shopping in the US a much cheaper alternative even when you include the price of the air fare. There's some pressure in Brazil for reform on these import taxes. If it happens that could have a significant negative impact on the passenger traffic.

So in other words, it is cheaper to import stuff than to export it??? Regarding passenger flights, I'd bet that US/AA will get a couple and DL will get some freq to Brazil as well.

KH

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-02-17 08:13:51 and read 20288 times.

Quoting realsim (Reply 48):
Now that AA is solving their cost problems, I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

AA all ready has multiple non stops to GRU from JFK, MIA, and DFW they also have some slack in their wide body fleet so if they had wanted to compete against UA on ORD-GRU route they would have started this route already given the size of their operation at ORD and given that they are the dominate carrier to GRU from the US.

I think the bigger question is with all the slots AA has at GRU why haven't they added ORD to the list the non stops? Over the years this question has been asked on A.netters many times and there is never a real answer because it simply makes no since that UA has made this route work initially as a 767 and now for the past couple years as a 777 and yet AA has not even attempted to try.

While we do have some O&D traffic on this route and that traffic has increased a little over the years most of UA passengers on the ORD-GRU route are connecting passengers from SFO, LAX, and other cities out west as well as passengers coming in from NRT. So I'm thinking the reason why AA has not started ORD-GRU is because there isn't enough O&D traffic for 2 airlines on this route and they probably are happy sending most of their connecting passengers from the west coast to either DFW or MIA. Now I'm not saying that AA will never start this route I think they probably would like to have more O&D traffic on this route when they start it and right now that traffic simply does not exist in the Chicago market.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-02-17 08:32:26 and read 20246 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 67):
if they had wanted to compete against UA on ORD-GRU route they would have started this route already given the size of their operation at ORD and given that they are the dominate carrier to GRU from the US.

Not necessarily. For some time, there have not been many, if any, free peak-time GRU arrival/departure slots available that would be viable for ORD-GRU. Down the road, when more of those slots become available, and TAM is (likely) a oneworld - and possible joint venture - partner, ORD-GRU might be viable.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 67):
I think the bigger question is with all the slots AA has at GRU why haven't they added ORD to the list the non stops?

AA's present slots are already well-used on the existing DFW/JFK schedules and of course the immensely busy MIA schedule. AA may not have added ORD-GRU due to the market being relatively smaller than, say, MIA or JFK, and/or not being quite as well-situated geographically as DFW, but it may also have come down to a precious limited number of GRU slots that had to be deployed as profitably as possible. Again - that may change in the future if/when more peak GRU slots become available.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: DFWEagle
Posted 2013-02-17 09:10:55 and read 20204 times.

I think that an application for ORD-GRU service would be the best chance that AA has to get more GRU-eligible frequencies in this round. They could position their application as providing new competition to UA in a monopoly market and the 5th largest USA-GRU market. The DOT looked quite favourably on this argument with the China frequencies and gave AA ORD-PVG and later ORD-PEK, despite them already being served by UA. Also, it would benefit a lot of smaller cities served by AA's hub in ORD so they should be able to get a good level of support.

AA's biggest handicap in the application process is their dominant position in the USA-GRU market, because other carriers will argue that it's unfair to increase AA's dominance there. I don't think the DOT would give them more MIA-GRU or DFW-GRU frequencies unless there were no other applicants, and AA just added a second JFK-GRU already. AA does now use all their GRU frequencies daily, year-round with 772 and 77W equipment which will work in their favour when asking for more frequencies in the market.

An outside possibility would be LAX-GRU. With AA's good market presence at both ends of the route, the upcoming TAM partnership/codeshares and AA's hub/oneworld feed at LAX, they just might be able to make it work, but the history makes it look like real challenge. This idea might even stand a better chance of approval than ORD-GRU, but I think less chance of commercial success.

Let's hope we see a good, strong application whatever they choose, if anything.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: FSDan
Posted 2013-02-17 09:23:14 and read 20166 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 62):
With all the feed US has at PHL feeding a flight to Sao Paulo would require no additional feed then the existing feed for the European flights. IF the reasons listed above for Detroit are true then Delta should have all its flights to GRU from DTW and not ATL, but they feed ATL, as we know all too well. Most international flights out of PHL longer then 6 hours probably wouldn't be possible if it were not for the hub.

When it comes to serving South America, PHL is not well positioned geographically. All logical connections would have to come from Canada and the Northeast, where US mostly sends DH8s, CRJs, and E-Jets. Comparing that feed to the domestic feed DL has at ATL is likening apples to oranges. DTW-GRU would not work without a decent local market and Asian connections, and neither will PHL-GRU.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-17 09:38:51 and read 20143 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 65):
Corgo flights to Brazil is a tricky business because Brazil imposes huge import taxes on goods. In a way what's driving this boom in passengers traffic to the US are these import taxes which makes shopping in the US a much cheaper alternative even when you include the price of the air fare.

Does not change the fact that Brazil is far the largest Latin America cargo market. It accounts for about 1/3 of the air cargo to the entire region and far ahead of Mexico and Colombia, and is the continents nexus for intra regional trade also.

Also very important to remember many things imported are not directly for consumer purchase but support industry - from petro chemicals, auto parts, machinery, electronics, pharma etc.

The primary Brazilian cargo hub are Manaus and Viracopos. Manuas is often the first point of entry as it host duty-free enterprise zone and growing center manufacturing and trading center from where the rest of the country is fed.

Imo with a decade of experience with freight to Brazil the biggest problem is not taxes, its old fashioned custom buerocracy followed by infrastructure.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-02-17 11:23:10 and read 20032 times.

Quoting embrider (Reply 63):
Thanks for the information. Very nice. Do you know what is the total daily offer of seats for GRU and GIG from US?

You're welcome and thanks for the comp.

It's not to difficult or time consuming with pax numbers for me, because from various sites I can load raw data info into my spreadsheets, and then once the data is there, I can usually rather simply and quickly extract specific data. However, I do not have such with airline seats.

Since there isn't that many flights between the U.S. and GRU/GIG, I did some quick looking at the schedules in each direction, and aircraft types here, and will offer this......

DL
JFK-GRU ……..daily 764
DTW-GRU ……..daily 764
ATL-GRU ……..daily 764
ATL-GIG ……..daily 764

AA
JFK-GRU ……..daily 77W
MIA-GRU ……..4 daily 777
DFW-GRU ……..daily 777
JFK-GIG ……..daily 763
MIA-GIG ……..2 daily 763
DFW-GIG ……..4X weeky 763


UA
IAH-GIG ……..daily 764
ORD-GRU ……..daily 764
IAH-GRU ……..daily 764
EWR-GRU ……..daily 764
IAD-GRU ……..daily 777


US
CLT-GIG ……..daily 767


JJ
MIA-GIG ……..daily 330
JFK-GIG ……..daily 330
MIA-GRU ……..2 daily 777
JFK-GRU ……..2 daily 777
MCO-GRU ……..daily 330


KE
LAX-GRU ……..3X weekly 77W


I think that this is a big picture here of April 2013 traffic, but not claiming that it's 100% accurate..... and if not.... please anyone feel free to chime in with any corrections.

Then, I don't know the specific seat numbers of these planes, but what I'll do since a lot of the bigger birds are used here, I'll average about 300 seats per flight at 27 daily flights, and estimate about 8100 daily seats in each direction......

Okay..... again.... anyone can feel free to chime in if they want about how good or how terrible my guesstimate is here. And I am open to corrections....... and if anyone can get accurate info here, I'm interested as to how close my estimate is.......


 

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MAH4546
Posted 2013-02-17 11:35:35 and read 20066 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):

Great list, but some corrections:

AA is double daily JFKGRU, 12w DFWGRU and up to daily DFWGIG (this sched is very seasonal).

TAM is double daily MCOGRU. It is currently double daily JFKGRU, but the daylight frequency is being discontinued in April. Also being discontinued in April is MCOGIG.

Also, there is Gol: daily MIAGIG and daily MCOGRU, both via SDQ.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: panamair
Posted 2013-02-17 13:41:37 and read 19847 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):
DTW-GRU ……..daily 764

DTW-GRU on Delta is a daily 763, recently upgraded to the new flat-bed J version.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AA767400
Posted 2013-02-17 16:13:59 and read 19655 times.

Since AA is the capacity leader in the market, and pretty much has their hubs covered. Where would they expand further? ORD-GRU, or LAX-GRU?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-02-17 19:46:07 and read 19454 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 73):
AA is double daily JFKGRU, 12w DFWGRU and up to daily DFWGIG (this sched is very seasonal).

AA is operating DFWGRU 10x weekly only. One 772 is doing all the additional flights and will be back to daily this month.

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):
USCLT-GIG……..daily 767

Currently and up to the end of next month CLT-GIG is a daily A332.

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):
UAIAH-GIG……..daily 764ORD-GRU……..daily 764IAH-GRU……..daily 764EWR-GRU……..daily 764IAD-GRU……..daily 777

IAH-GIG 764, soon 772
IAH-GRU 763
ORD-GRU 772
EWR-GRU 764
IAD-GRU-GIG 772

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 73):
TAM is double daily MCOGRU. It is currently double daily JFKGRU

JFK-GRU = 9x 77W + 5x A332.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-02-18 04:11:27 and read 19280 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 56):
I don't think immigration policy has anything to do with it. We already have 100+ PDEW and growing so people are doing it. The problem is yields and adequate aircraft.

Immigration has something to do with it since there are many Brazilians here "illlegally." They cannot just hop on a plane to CNF and visit the family back home for a week. Also getting a visa to visit Brazil, especially a tourist market such as GIG, can be tedious (though easier than getting a visa China since a consulate is in Boston) so people do not bother and go somewhere else instead.

I agree with you with the yields and planes though. The only hope for a BOS-GRU route is GRU continuing to grow a global economic center.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-28 13:47:40 and read 18798 times.

Well the first ones are in.

AA seeks GRU service from both LAX and ORD.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americ...s-additional-brazil-190000175.html

=

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-02-28 14:17:10 and read 18657 times.

To any ones knowledge has Delta or United applied for more slots?

Also If Delta and United have not applied for more slots how many slots do Delta and United currently have in their possession that they are not currently using or have leased out?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-02-28 14:24:56 and read 18611 times.

Apps are not formally due till end of business tomorrow.

Actually the AA one is not been filed either as of now. They only posted the press release.

I'm sure tomorrow we will know.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-02-28 14:25:48 and read 18628 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 78):
Well the first ones are in.

AA seeks GRU service from both LAX and ORD.

I dont hold much hope for success on LAX-GRU even with a two class 777. I think ORD-GRU is going to have a better shot despite the competition with United.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: RodRB
Posted 2013-02-28 14:26:17 and read 18613 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 78):
Well the first ones are in.

AA seeks GRU service from both LAX and ORD.

That's great. AA will fly to GRU from all international hubs, am I right?

I think this application deserves a new thread

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-02-28 14:27:59 and read 18613 times.

I would expect DL to apply somehow....ditto for UA.

Now what if one of these carriers made a surprise application for MIA-GRU. DL has a sales team in Brazil now so could probably make it work.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: CXA330300
Posted 2013-02-28 14:40:05 and read 18536 times.

I could see AA going for CWB and maybe POA with this...or even a run at LAX-GRU?

Quoting B6JFKH81 (Reply 1):
A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

It's pretty much BEL and MAO in range of the 320s, and that said, that's not necessarily the biggest guarantee of anything.

Now if B6 wanted to try something from SJU, that puts FOR, NAT, REC, SSA, and BSB within range. Still not the Golden Eggs of GRU and GIG; nor do they have the huge market advantage of FLL. Still something to think about, albeit likely in fantasy worlds.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 10):

Resumption of the former CO EWR-GIG with a sUA 767-300ER makes sense.

Or even a 772. There's a lot of traffic.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-02-28 16:10:16 and read 18436 times.

Quoting CXA330300 (Reply 84):
I could see AA going for CWB and maybe POA with this...or even a run at LAX-GRU?

AA is applying for LAXGRU and it has already announced MIA-CWB-POA-MIA to start in November.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: b777erj145
Posted 2013-02-28 16:20:14 and read 18316 times.

It is going to be good to see who gets the slot. But i think it is going to be too much traffic between US and Brazil

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: nomorerjs
Posted 2013-02-28 16:49:19 and read 18243 times.

It may take AA a year to get better ORD-BJS slots. Also, if AA adjusts schedules and adds a HKG flight (am) and adjusts schedules to other cities for 10 am departures and return to ORD around 5 pm, it would be a nice option from Asia to GRU and would impact UA as their schedules leave late and arrive early from NRT and HKG (long layovers).

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mcmax
Posted 2013-02-28 16:59:52 and read 18228 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 85):
AA is applying for LAXGRU and it has already announced MIA-CWB-POA-MIA to start in November.

Looks like AA applied for LAX-GRU and ORD-GRU.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americ...lines-seeks-ok-more-204859717.html

--Max

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-28 17:07:10 and read 18232 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 79):
Also If Delta and United have not applied for more slots how many slots do Delta and United currently have in their possession that they are not currently using or have leased out?

Delta has 21, 7x ATL-GRU, 7x JFK-GRU, 7x DTW-GRU. I also think DL may have one or two ATL-GIG frequencies that are un-restricted but at least 4x of them went to starting DTW-GRU. (two also came from the short lived LAX-GRU.)

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 81):
I think ORD-GRU is going to have a better shot despite the competition with United.

agreed. I don't think this is a bad route for AA. The question becomes how large does the DOT let AA get at GRU, or do they let others play catch up. (IIRC, DL/UA both have 21 weekly flights to GRU(ATL/DTW/JFK for DL, EWR/IAH/ORD for UA) AA is in the 42(?) range (3x MIA, 2x JFK, 1x DFW abouts?). This round may be the chance for the DOT to let DL/UA catch up. (because the DOT doesn't care about profits, just "lower fares")

*note, this is assuming Southwest doesn't get involved, if they do they will get all 14 plus the DOT will likely make AA/UA/DL give up something to make life "fair"*         

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 81):
I dont hold much hope for success on LAX-GRU even with a two class 777.

Better than zero... maybe a .05 on a scale of 1 to 10.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 83):
Now what if one of these carriers made a surprise application for MIA-GRU. DL has a sales team in Brazil now so could probably make it work.

MIA-GRU/GIG wouldn't be shocking at all for Delta. GOL doesn't have the aircraft to fly it non-stop (and AFAIK doesn't have any orders for any) and lord knows Delta has all kinds of international capacity laying around.
I still expect ATL-GRU number two though.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-02-28 17:27:19 and read 18110 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 89):
The question becomes how large does the DOT let AA get at GRU, or do they let others play catch up

Are the other airlines really trying to compete against AA at GRU or are they happy to let AA continue to dominate?
I ask this question because if you look at slots for HND or if you look at slots going into China UA and DL are right there fighting each other to gain any extra slots they can get their hands on. But with the GRU slots both DL and UA don't seem to be putting up a fight against AA to gain more slots. I'm sure if either of these airlines submitted a proposal the DOT would probably give them priority over AA do to the fact that AA is so dominate in the U.S. to GRU market. However that is not the case so if DL and UA do not want the slots the DOT can't tell AA no because later down the road these other airlines won't be able to catch up.

If DL and UA want to gain more slots they need to apply for these slots. The problem is AA has a rich history in Brazil and neither DL nor UA will be able to break what AA has built. It is no different than the history that UA and NW (DL inherited) has built in Asia. The big difference is AA is fighting to get more access into Asia however DL is fighting a little bit for more acces into brazil and UA seems to not even care about Brazil at this time which makes the DOT's job really easy one airline applies that airline gets the slots.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: RodRB
Posted 2013-02-28 17:32:03 and read 18114 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 89):
(3x MIA, 2x JFK, 1x DFW abouts?).

AA currently fly MIA 4x daily, DFW 10x weekly and JFK 2x daily.

And how about US new flight CLT-GRU? It will survive after the merger?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-28 17:40:34 and read 18083 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
if you look at slots going into China UA and DL are right there fighting each other to gain any extra slots they can get their hands on.

Not at all. US-China has like 28 used frequencies. (to PEK/PVG) I think CAN is at 14x plus DL/UA both sitting on 14.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
Are the other airlines really trying to compete against AA at GRU or are they happy to let AA continue to dominate?

Delta has been trying to grow, Like i said they are about as big as they can be at GRU (and want to put the 744 on ATL-GRU but keep getting turned down for slots). Almost all the unrestricted slots are on GRU now. 1-2 maybe still be used on ATL-GIG.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
However that is not the case so if DL and UA do not want the slots the DOT can't tell AA no because later down the road these other airlines won't be able to catch up.

well duh. I don't expect the DOT to tell AA no just because, I also don't see DL passing up at least 7x of them. No idea what UAL is doing, but Brazil is a market Delta is trying to grow into.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
If DL and UA want to gain more slots they need to apply for these slots.

read above.

Quoting RodRB (Reply 91):
AA currently fly MIA 4x daily, DFW 10x weekly and JFK 2x daily.

ok so 52 GRU frequencies. jeesh.

Not sure but doesn't AA have some GIG frequencies that can be moved to GRU or are all the unrestricted Brazil frequencies at GRU for AA now?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: aaway
Posted 2013-02-28 18:11:24 and read 18002 times.

Quoting mcmax (Reply 88):
Looks like AA applied for LAX-GRU and ORD-GRU.

I think AA is positioning itself well with World Cup (2014) and Olympic Games (2016) approaching. Another key factor will be Brazil's ascension to Visa Waiver Program status. There's been a bit of movement on that front - absolutely huge should that occur soon.

All-in-all, lots of forward momentum to potentially lift all boats besides AAs'.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-02-28 19:01:21 and read 17875 times.

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):

LAX-GIG would de a disaster. 6000 miles and low low yield

Delta will probably apply for LAX-GRU but if they flew it before abd dropped it they'll get killed in the rebuttals. ATL-GRU #2 might work. JFK-GIG will also be applied for.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: bsbisland
Posted 2013-02-28 19:05:27 and read 17865 times.

Quoting aaway (Reply 93):

I think AA is positioning itself well with World Cup (2014) and Olympic Games (2016) approaching. Another key factor will be Brazil's ascension to Visa Waiver Program status. There's been a bit of movement on that front - absolutely huge should that occur soon.

All-in-all, lots of forward momentum to potentially lift all boats besides AAs'.

US-Brazil Open skies and end of visas will probably increase a lot the air traffic between the two countries. Will be interesting to see how the US-Brazil market will develop in the next years, specially after 2015. I see this market a lot bigger than it is now in ten years or so. As an aviation enthusiast it will be interesting to see how it develops. I hope the market develop to its full potential.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-02-28 19:23:16 and read 17797 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
Are the other airlines really trying to compete against AA at GRU or are they happy to let AA continue to dominate?
I ask this question because if you look at slots for HND or if you look at slots going into China UA and DL are right there fighting each other to gain any extra slots they can get their hands on. But with the GRU slots both DL and UA don't seem to be putting up a fight against AA to gain more slots. I'm sure if either of these airlines submitted a proposal the DOT would probably give them priority over AA do to the fact that AA is so dominate in the U.S. to GRU market. However that is not the case so if DL and UA do not want the slots the DOT can't tell AA no because later down the road these other airlines won't be able to catch up.

Well, only frequencies are being allocated, not slots. That's a whole other story. It's possible that AA will face some problems launching LAX-GRU this year. Only next year will there be more capacity when the first phase of T3 is completed.

UA is in the best position today to introduce new service to GRU. They use frequencies for the tag-on service to GIG. If they axed the tag-on flights, they could introduce new service more easily. The only problem will be the parking position at GRU for two more aircraft.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 92):
Not sure but doesn't AA have some GIG frequencies that can be moved to GRU or are all the unrestricted Brazil frequencies at GRU for AA now?

AA has already moved all to GRU.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-28 19:55:40 and read 17751 times.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 94):
Delta will probably apply for LAX-GRU but if they flew it before abd dropped it they'll get killed in the rebuttals.

They won't be trying for LAX-GRU. ATL-GRU maybe more JFK-GRU capacity with a very small outside chance for MIA-GRU. Thats about it.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 94):
JFK-GIG will also be applied for.

not likely from DL. Same reason as CO for EWR-GIG. Delta can start JFK-GIG tomorrow as it has unused frequencies.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 96):
AA has already moved all to GRU.

ah thanks. Just FWIW, how many frequencies do they hold for GIG? 2x MIA, 1x JFK and 1x DFW right?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-02-28 20:07:50 and read 17722 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
Delta can start JFK-GIG tomorrow as it has unused frequencies.

No, Delta doesn't currently hold any unused frequencies.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
how many frequencies do they hold for GIG? 2x MIA, 1x JFK and 1x DFW right?

Twice daily from MIA
Daily from JFK
3x weekly from DFW

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-02-28 20:26:55 and read 17646 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 98):
No, Delta doesn't currently hold any unused frequencies.

but i believe GIG has unused frequencies available. Thats what I mean.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 98):
Twice daily from MIA
Daily from JFK
3x weekly from DFW

thanks.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-02-28 21:31:46 and read 17544 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 92):
Delta has been trying to grow, Like i said they are about as big as they can be at GRU (and want to put the 744 on ATL-GRU but keep getting turned down for slots). Almost all the unrestricted slots are on GRU now. 1-2 maybe still be used on ATL-GIG.

I've never understood this argument. Delta could move from 764 to 777 right now and add seats if they want to. Why skip over 777 and 333 to go to 744?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-01 02:37:04 and read 17300 times.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 99):
but i believe GIG has unused frequencies available. Thats what I mean.

Oh, yes! There are currently 7 unassigned GIG-eligible frequencies in the unallocated pool.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-03-01 04:13:40 and read 17282 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 101):
Delta could move from 764 to 777 right now and add seats if they want to. Why skip over 777 and 333 to go to 744?

The differences between seat count and J:Y mix are pretty small between 764 and 777, the former at 40J 206Y and the 777 at 45J 224Y. There may be a utilization issue, too.

Delta has made a priority of putting flat bed J onto the Brazil routes and the 333s haven't been converted yet.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-03-01 04:34:39 and read 17263 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 77):
Immigration has something to do with it since there are many Brazilians here "illlegally." They cannot just hop on a plane to CNF and visit the family back home for a week. Also getting a visa to visit Brazil, especially a tourist market such as GIG, can be tedious (though easier than getting a visa China since a consulate is in Boston) so people do not bother and go somewhere else instead.

Indeed, but many Irish and Italians are here illegaly too. My point was that there are already 100PDEW flying BOS-GRU so clearly a significant amount are not here illegaly and can afford to travel.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-03-01 04:50:40 and read 17328 times.

AA's proposed schedules:

AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-01 05:27:35 and read 17250 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):

AA's proposed schedules:

AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Frankly, I hope AA gets ORDGRU, but not LAXGRU. I dont think LAXGRU will be successful and it would waste a 777. ORDGRU has a better shot at success.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-01 05:46:37 and read 17179 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):
AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Yes ORD is an AA hub, but Do Chicago and São Paulo need another U.S. airline flying between them?
Shouldn't AA be using that precious São Paulo slot to further increase its power in the MIA-SAO market flying MIA-VCP and let LA/JJ fly GRU-ORD?
IHO, if AA starts ORD-GRU, UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU (or start MIA-VCP) as MIA can support 2 U.S. airlines flying to SAO.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: SCL767
Posted 2013-03-01 06:11:19 and read 17082 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
Shouldn't AA be using that precious São Paulo slot to further increase its power in the MIA-SAO market flying MIA-VCP

VCP is not a LATAM hub.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU

Should UA restart MIA-GRU, LATAM would most likely respond by increasing frequency on the GRU-MIA route to 3x daily. I'm sure that LATAM could find suitable slots at GRU; especially given the total number of daily flights that LA/JJ operate via GRU.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-01 06:19:07 and read 17062 times.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 107):
VCP is not a LATAM hub.

And there are yet airports in Brazil which aren't LA/JJ hubs and AA still flies to those.
The AA MIA-VCP suggestion isn't because LA/JJ but because how powerful AA is in SAO, not the airport but the whole region.

Quote:
Should UA restart MIA-GRU, LATAM would most likely respond by increasing frequency on the GRU-MIA route to 3x daily.

Then better chances of Avianca Brazil doing UA the favour. As it's easier for Brazilian airlines to get slots to U.S. than for U.S. airlines to get slots to SAO.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-03-01 06:23:55 and read 17072 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
Yes ORD is an AA hub, but Do Chicago and São Paulo need another U.S. airline flying between them?
Shouldn't AA be using that precious São Paulo slot to further increase its power in the MIA-SAO market flying MIA-VCP and let LA/JJ fly GRU-ORD?
IHO, if AA starts ORD-GRU, UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU (or start MIA-VCP) as MIA can support 2 U.S. airlines flying to SAO.

If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-01 07:10:06 and read 16994 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 109):
If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.

ORD isn't MIA or JFK.. For Brazil-U.S. traffic it's mostly a hub, ORD doesn't have the major O/D MIA or JFK have. And location-wise AA DFW wins over ORD big time.
If AA thinks GRU slots are better used for ORD and/or LAX rather than for MIA, JFK or even DFW heck MCO, that's its prerogative.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-01 07:10:29 and read 17012 times.

A little clarification on the AA proposal.

As far as the DOT is concerned for this 2013 allocation proceeding they are seeking only a single flight - LAX - effective November 21, 2013.

The ORD proposal which they show with a proposed November 20, 2014 start up would be from 2014 frequency allocation and more for informational purposes.

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):
AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

DOT filling is slightly different.

AA215 LAX-GRU 1915-1255

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-01 07:12:58 and read 16976 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 108):
And there are yet airports in Brazil which aren't LA/JJ hubs and AA still flies to those.
The AA MIA-VCP suggestion isn't because LA/JJ but because how powerful AA is in SAO, not the airport but the whole region.

VCP is largely overshadowed by GRU. The airport is still not viable for international service. TP flies to it, but they really shouldn't. The only reason is because they can't get additional frequencies to GRU.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 108):
Then better chances of Avianca Brazil doing UA the favour. As it's easier for Brazilian airlines to get slots to U.S. than for U.S. airlines to get slots to SAO.

Frequencies, yes, but for slots, no, since both Brazilian and foreign carriers go through the same slot allocation process.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AA767400
Posted 2013-03-01 08:43:46 and read 16814 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 105):
Frankly, I hope AA gets ORDGRU, but not LAXGRU. I dont think LAXGRU will be successful and it would waste a 777. ORDGRU has a better shot at success.

We get it. You think it will fail.

I'm more optimistic - With a 2-class 777, AA/JL/CX LAX connections, and JJ's excellent connections at the GRU end, I think this can work. It would work better with a 787, but that's not available right now.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-01 08:53:07 and read 16817 times.

btw - when is the first 777 2-cabin retrofits supposed to begin?

In the DOT application - AA repeatedly states is plans to offer 247 seat 3-class service and list the FCY breakdown also.


Also for those that might be interested AA supplied a list of the largest GRU-USA O&D routes.

1 GRU MIA 307,690
2 GRU JFK 258,022
3 GRU MCO 216,669
4 GRU LAX 88,428
5 GRU LAS 64,056
6 GRU EWR 61,393
7 GRU ORD 48,445
8 GRU SFO 43,220
9 BOS GRU 29,990
10 GRU IAD 27,615

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AA767400
Posted 2013-03-01 09:05:31 and read 16764 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 114):

btw - when is the first 777 2-cabin retrofits supposed to begin?

In the DOT application - AA repeatedly states is plans to offer 247 seat 3-class service and list the FCY breakdown also.

If memory serves me, I believe this fall they were slated for conversion.

AA stated a 3-class since that's what they only have currently. Legally they have to state such?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-01 09:37:10 and read 16738 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 105):
Frankly, I hope AA gets ORDGRU, but not LAXGRU. I dont think LAXGRU will be successful and it would waste a 777

It would be a waste of TWO 777s, not just one.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
IHO, if AA starts ORD-GRU, UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU (or start MIA-VCP) as MIA can support 2 U.S. airlines flying to SAO.

This will go down like the DL MIA-LHR flight.

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 113):
We get it. You think it will fail.

I'm more optimistic - With a 2-class 777, AA/JL/CX LAX connections, and AM-Transportes Aereos Meridionais (Brazil)">JJ's excellent connections at the GRU end, I think this can work. It would work better with a 787, but that's not available right now.

If you look at the timings, the connections to other AA's Asian network and other OneWorld carriers pretty much suck except for a select few.

Let's start with Narita. It looks like the route will connect well to the AA LAX > NRT flight on the outbound (6:30 AM arrival in LAX from SAO, 10:50 AM departure to NRT) but poorly on the return NRT > LAX (8:35 AM arrival from TYO, 19:30 departure to SAO).

JL's LAX > NRT flight leaves at 11:55 am, so not too shabby. The return, however, similar to AA, arrives in the morning at 10 AM.

Connections to AA's PVG work in the opposite direction: PVG > LAX arrives at 17:15, LAX > SAO departs at 19:30. Versus 6:35 AM arrival from SAO, 13:30 departure back to PVG from LAX.

CX offers one departure from LAX at 11:25 AM (3x weekly) and the rest depart LAX for HKG in the late evening, so that doesn't really provide great connection options, either. In the opposite direction, CX has a flight that lands at 9:40 (3x weekly) 13:05 (daily) and 20:05 (daily), so none of those options are great.

Anything I am missing?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-01 09:56:48 and read 16666 times.

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 115):
AA stated a 3-class since that's what they only have currently. Legally they have to state such?

Nothing stops them from making comment such as

"soon to be converted 2-class, xxx seat Boeing 777"

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
Anything I am missing?

You are right, timings for Asia connections are pretty terrible, so that clearly is not going to be much of an option for folks.

So a LAX flight will have to focus on local and West Coast demand.

I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-03-01 10:11:40 and read 16601 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 114):
btw - when is the first 777 2-cabin retrofits supposed to begin?

772 conversions are not expected to begin until sometime in 2014 now.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
Anything I am missing?

Don't forget MH (maybe) and QF - still not great though.

However, an expanded AA/US at LAX combined with AS connections along the west coast could provide some nice domestic feed for both flights. Also flights are good for Hawaii connections but I'm not sure of the passenger numbers between Brazil and Hawaii.

I think ultimately LAX-GRU and ORD-GRU could be prime routes for AA's new 787s.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-01 10:17:15 and read 16600 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 111):

A little clarification on the AA proposal.

As far as the DOT is concerned for this 2013 allocation proceeding they are seeking only a single flight - LAX - effective November 21, 2013.

The ORD proposal which they show with a proposed November 20, 2014 start up would be from 2014 frequency allocation and more for informational purposes.

I really think that you should read the notice inviting applications once again. It's clearly about both years, 2013 and 2014.

AA's application for ORD-GRU is for real.

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-1998-20-0615
http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2013-0041-0001

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-01 10:19:08 and read 16602 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Good question. DFWGRU has a record of strong performance, and indeed, relies on feed from the West Coast and Midwest. How will DFW, then, be impacted from the new ORD and LAX nonstops?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-01 10:19:08 and read 16614 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Probably some for sure. Outside of DFW itself, LAX is the largest contributor to the DFW-GRU flight.

In the end though, if it comes down to choosing between DFW-GRU and LAX-GRU, they will protect DFW-GRU. Right now, as things currently are, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's entire network. If LAX-GRU starts and (against my predictions) is a success, DFW-GRU will probably hold fast at a daily 777.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: psa1011
Posted 2013-03-01 10:22:09 and read 16570 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
You are right, timings for Asia connections are pretty terrible, so that clearly is not going to be much of an option for folks.

I think NH & JL could help solve this problem by swapping Haneda slots. NH would move their HND-LAX to SFO, and JL would move theirs to LAX. This would mean that someone flying GRU-LAX could at least have a reasonable connection on the return, and UA would finally have some JV benefit on SFO-HND.

But I'm sure there are all sorts of reasons why JL & and NH fly where they do. Plus, Oneworld may already have enough LAX-TYO. And finally, someone might not be able to book GRU-LAX-NRT, HND-LAX-GRU cheaply.

Ultimately though I think the Asian cx need to cooperate to make these connections work.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-03-01 10:37:39 and read 16567 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 109):
If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.


UA needs to fly ORD-GRU do to connecting passenger demand. UA has a lot of passengers that connect off UA's and ANA's NRT flights and we also get passenger from our other flights from Asia. We also get a lot of passengers from the west coast from places like LAX and SFO.Some are O&D west coast passengers while other came to the west coast from Asia. UA has been on this route for years starting it as a 767 and for the past 3 years a 777 this is all do to connecting passengers.

AA if they receive the green light from the DOT can launch ORD-GRU but it won't change a thing in this market because the O&D market between these to cities is extremely small. A lot of times UA's ORD-GRU flight might only have 25 local passengers onboard despite the fact that the 777 is going out completely full. So AA emergence into this market will have effect on UA.

But how will ORD and LAX effect AA's DFW-GRU flights? Both MIA and JFK have more than enough O&D traffic to support multiple non stops with needing a ton of connecting traffic but how is the O&D market in DFW? Will DFW still be able to maintain 10x weekly to GRU once LAX and ORD start stealing passenger from that route? I know many of you believe that just because its American Airlines they will be successful on the ORD-GRU route but make no mistake about it there is no substantial market here in Chicago and in order to fill a 767 or a777 AA is going to have to route a lot of passengers to ORD and those passengers will have to come from somewhere so how will that effect DFW especially with them flying wanting to fly from LAX as well.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-01 10:44:54 and read 16526 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 118):
However, an expanded AA/US at LAX combined with AS connections along the west coast could provide some nice domestic feed for both flights.

US is about useless - PHX is a market already served by AA.

Yes AS can bring people down, however I dont think SEA/PDX/ANC are much of markets to Brazil.

AA already has SFO/LAS service which I suppose would be the potential largest feeder markets in the Western US via LAX.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 119):
I really think that you should read the notice inviting applications once again. It's clearly about both years, 2013 and 2014.

AA's application for ORD-GRU is for real.

There is nothing to re-read.

This is like the multi-year China awards.

First 2013 is settled, then 2014 is looked at.

Also if you read the AA application, they are only asking for ORD-GRU is they receive LAX-GRU in 2013. The ORD proposal is contingent on receiving the LAX flight.

If they fail to get the LAX flight in 2013, then they say will try for it again for LAX for the 2014 award, and ORD can wait for openskies post 2015.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 122):
I think NH & JL could help solve this problem by swapping Haneda slots. NH would move their HND-LAX to SFO, and JL would move theirs to LAX.

Why would they do that. For ANA it would mean double daily daytime service. Today they have both daytime and evening Tokyo service. Things work nicely at the moment.

[Edited 2013-03-01 10:55:17]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-01 10:57:12 and read 16467 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 124):
There is nothing to re-read.

This is like the multi-year China awards.

First 2013 is settled, and downline 2014 is looked at.

Also if you read the AA application, they are only asking for ORD-GRU is they receive LAX-GRU in 2013. The ORD proposal is contingent on receiving the LAX flight.

If they fail to get the LAX flight in 2013, then they say will try for it again for LAX in the 2014 award, and ORD can wait for openskies post 2015.

They will not try again, because both years will be decided at once. That's why ORD-GRU is not informational in the application. They're giving preference to LAX-GRU. There is no question about it.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: psa1011
Posted 2013-03-01 10:58:43 and read 16490 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 124):
Why would they do that. For ANA it would mean double daily daytime service. The way they have it now is a daytime and evening service. Things work nicely.

I'm unclear - the NH LAX-HND flight departs @ 12AM, while the LAX-NRT flight departs @ 1130AM. JL also flies daylight to TYO.

If JL started HND-LAX, it would provide for a nice connection to LAX-GRU on Oneworld. I'm sure UA would love the swap.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-03-01 11:19:43 and read 16449 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
Anything I am missing?

I would look at it through multiple hubs. LAX will be a good connecting point for selected destinations in a single direction. Once it is combined with connectivity through DFW and JFK (and ORD) on AA and Asian partners, I guess a strong picture emerges.

I would not discount interlines at LAX either. Some time-sensitive business people will purchase the itinerary that fits their schedule, no matter the airline combo. LAX is a very diverse airport.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-01 11:37:47 and read 16426 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 123):
A lot of times UA's ORD-GRU flight might only have 25 local passengers onboard despite the fact that the 777 is going out completely full. So AA emergence into this market will have effect on UA.

Sometimes, when I arrive at ORD late at night, I like to watch the GRU flight board from the C concourse and, while not always the best indicator (I feel dumb saying this) I've noticed many a time when the departure screen shows a relatively empty J-class cabin on this flight, so it makes me wonder how it performs.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 125):
They're giving preference to LAX-GRU. There is no question about it.

Which is what stumps me. There is far greater potential in ORDGRU, but perhaps AA feels it stands a better chance launching GRU to a cornerstone hub with fewer ASMs (being LAXGRU on KE 3x weekly vs. ORDGRU daily on UA).

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-01 11:42:41 and read 16455 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
Sometimes, when I arrive at ORD late at night, I like to watch the GRU flight board from the C concourse and, while not always the best indicator (I feel dumb saying this) I've noticed many a time when the departure screen shows a relatively empty J-class cabin on this flight, so it makes me wonder how it performs.

The ORD-GRU flight on UA has the single lowest loads of any GRU flight originating from the US. However, Ive been told that UA has some good contracts (like Motorola) for that flight.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-01 11:50:21 and read 16376 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
Which is what stumps me. There is far greater potential in ORDGRU, but perhaps AA feels it stands a better chance launching GRU to a cornerstone hub with fewer ASMs (being LAXGRU on KE 3x weekly vs. ORDGRU daily on UA).

At LAX, they don't have UA as a competitor, not to mention that it seems that ORD would affect DFW's performance more. AA is trying to gain market share in California's by concentrating demand that is scattered between carriers.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: af086
Posted 2013-03-01 12:03:50 and read 16383 times.

Apparently DL and UA will not apply to fly NYC-GIG this time and seems that AA won't increase frequencies on the DFW-GIG route on a year round basis. Unfortunately.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-01 12:05:57 and read 16372 times.

Quoting af086 (Reply 131):
Apparently DL and UA will not apply to fly NYC-GIG this time and seems that AA won't increase frequencies on the DFW-GIG route on a year round basis. Unfortunately.

That's not a surprise. There are unused GIG frequencies as is. They could fly these routes tomorrow, but have no interest.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-01 12:56:00 and read 16187 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 132):

Quoting af086 (Reply 131):
Apparently DL and UA will not apply to fly NYC-GIG this time and seems that AA won't increase frequencies on the DFW-GIG route on a year round basis. Unfortunately.

That's not a surprise. There are unused GIG frequencies as is. They could fly these routes tomorrow, but have no interest.

I never fully understood what happened with DFWGIG this winter. Was it bumped up to daily, 4x weekly, or none of the above, and for how long?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-03-01 13:06:29 and read 16148 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 118):
Don't forget MH (maybe) and QF - still not great though.

QF? why would anyone go SYD-LAX-GRU when they could go SYD-SCL-GRU

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-01 13:29:32 and read 16079 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 133):
I never fully understood what happened with DFWGIG this winter. Was it bumped up to daily, 4x weekly, or none of the above, and for how long?

AFAIK, it was made daily from December 12th until the end of February. It's back to 3x weekly now.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-03-01 15:01:37 and read 15875 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
Sometimes, when I arrive at ORD late at night, I like to watch the GRU flight board from the C concourse and, while not always the best indicator (I feel dumb saying this) I've noticed many a time when the departure screen shows a relatively empty J-class cabin on this flight, so it makes me wonder how it performs.

My intentions was not to suggest that UA's ORD-GRU flight goes out full every night every one knows that not the truth. the point I was making was to another comment about why does UA fly ORD-GRU and not AA when AA should be flying ORD-GRU because UA does not need to fly this route.

Our flights load factor fluctuates from one night to the next even during the high season you can have two nights when the flight is over sold and the next 3 nights the load factor will be between 65-85% it all depends on how much connecting traffic UA pushes toward ORD instead of IAH, or IAD or in some cases EWR. So yes there are nights when business class will go out with 10-15 empty seats which wasn't the point I was making.
The point I was making or the question I was asking was if AA starts both LAX and ORD how would that effect their DFW flights because the O&D market between ORD and GRU is extremely small and not enough on its own to fill a 767 or a 777 without daily significant help from connecting passengers from the West Coast and NRT.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-01 15:12:28 and read 15852 times.

Did AA not also try a ORD-EZE briefly a few years back? I think it did not even last a year.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 126):
I'm unclear - the NH LAX-HND flight departs @ 12AM, while the LAX-NRT flight departs @ 1130AM. JL also flies daylight to TYO.
If JL started HND-LAX, it would provide for a nice connection to LAX-GRU on Oneworld. I'm sure UA would love the swap.

You are also forgetting the other side of the equation. The JCAB awarded the Japanese carriers the route rights they have from HND. So its not a simple matter of lets swap, there is also Japanese regulatory stuff.

But anyhow, I dont see ANA dropping HND-LAX. It has higher loads then their daytime NRT flight.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-03-01 15:22:59 and read 15791 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Likely keep it to once daily instead of creeping up to 10x weekly at times (or more).

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 124):
US is about useless - PHX is a market already served by AA.

Yes, US is useless but their frequent flyer base and contracts in the west are not.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 134):
QF? why would anyone go SYD-LAX-GRU when they could go SYD-SCL-GRU

Agreed! But to answer your question - surely you realize those doing milage runs and AOWE tickets would consider the routing  

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2013-03-01 18:23:46 and read 15570 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):
AA's proposed schedules:

AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Economics aside, I'd LOVE for this to become a reality as California (LAX, SFO and Palm Springs) are my destinations of choice in the USA.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 121):
In the end though, if it comes down to choosing between DFW-GRU and LAX-GRU, they will protect DFW-GRU. Right now, as things currently are, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's entire network. If LAX-GRU starts and (against my predictions) is a success, DFW-GRU will probably hold fast at a daily 777.

If, as stated above, GRU-DFW is a prime connecting point to California, and is such a high yielding route for AA, there MUST be some money to be made on GRU-LAX. Heck, if LAN can make LAX and SFO work, from Lima of all places (a market that is far smaller than GRU and much, much, lower yielding than GRU), relying heavily on Brazil pax, again, don't believe the "common sense" (rather myth) that California-Brazil is a dead market.

Has anyone noticed how high KE's fares are?

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 130):
At LAX, they don't have UA as a competitor, not to mention that it seems that ORD would affect DFW's performance more. AA is trying to gain market share in California's by concentrating demand that is scattered between carriers.

My thoughts are the same.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: SCL767
Posted 2013-03-01 18:47:59 and read 15486 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 139):
Heck, if LAN can make LAX and SFO work, from Lima of all places (a market that is far smaller than GRU and much, much, lower yielding than GRU), relying heavily on Brazil pax, again

"Lima of all places"? Perú's economy is experiencing robust growth; unlike Brazil. The majority of pax traveling on LA's 13 weekly non-stop flights between LIM and LAX originate from LIM, SCL and EZE. LIM has a size-able Japanese community and many pax transfer between LIM and NRT via LAX. Exports from Chile and Perú to Asia are also a very important component of these services.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-01 19:31:21 and read 15400 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 139):
Has anyone noticed how high KE's fares are?

Remember plane goes to Korea, so they sell accordingly.

But overall loads are not that terrific(see below) Also KE dropped its planned idea to increase to 6x weekly.

Here are the released 2012 LF numbers so far.

LAX-GRU
Jan - 78.1
Feb - 79.2
Mar - 58.3
Apr - 65.7
May - 69.0
Jun - 72.3
Jul - 79.7
Aug - 58.6

GRU-LAX
Jan - 71.4
Feb - 63.4
Mar - 64.0
Apr - 69.1
May - 64.5
Jun - 69.9
Jul - 72.4
Aug - 64.1

=

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-01 20:32:12 and read 15268 times.

Applications are technically do tomorrow, but given its a Saturday, should have all been in today. Is AA going to be uncontested? That is shocking.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-01 23:24:05 and read 15013 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 137):

Did AA not also try a ORD-EZE briefly a few years back? I think it did not even last a year.

Both AA and UA have tried this and it has failed miserably. GRU is a different market, although I wouldn't say the route will be a slam dunk from the start. It may take some time to mature.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: SCL767
Posted 2013-03-02 00:12:24 and read 14880 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 143):
GRU is a different market, although I wouldn't say the route will be a slam dunk from the start. It may take some time to mature.

While the Brazilian economy is currently growing slowly compared to the past few years, the growth rate is projected to increase during 2014 onwards. AA is proactively planning for the increase in pax traffic from 2014 onwards... Remember, AA plans to launch the route during 2014 and will code-share with LATAM on the route. Also, by that time, GRU will become a oneworld hub. During 2015, Brazil will have OS with the U.S. and it is very likely that AA will apply for ATI with LATAM's affiliate TAM Airlines. IMO, AA can compete with UA on the route; especially given AA's already strong presence at GRU and AA's future with LATAM. It's very important to note that the "new AA" together with LATAM will be a strong alliance between North America and South America in the near-future.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2013-03-02 00:56:09 and read 14876 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 114):
Also for those that might be interested AA supplied a list of the largest GRU-USA O&D routes.

1 GRU MIA 307,690
2 GRU JFK 258,022
3 GRU MCO 216,669
4 GRU LAX 88,428

Based on those LAX numbers, could AA double the LAX-GRU frequency as the route matures or would it really begin to hurt the DFW/MIA-GRU flights?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2013-03-02 01:18:10 and read 14826 times.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 140):
"Lima of all places"? Perú's economy is experiencing robust growth; unlike Brazil. The majority of pax traveling on LA's 13 weekly non-stop flights between LIM and LAX originate from LIM, SCL and EZE. LIM has a size-able Japanese community and many pax transfer between LIM and NRT via LAX. Exports from Chile and Perú to Asia are also a very important component of these services.

I did't mean that as an offense, sorry if it came out like that. I'm simply saying that São Paulo is a much larger city and metro area and, GDP growth numbers aside, the city has a much stronger economy, that's all.

As for the Japanese community, let's not forget that São Paulo has the largest Japanese community outside Japan.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: SCL767
Posted 2013-03-02 01:33:17 and read 14805 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 146):
I did't mean that as an offense, sorry if it came out like that. I'm simply saying that São Paulo is a much larger city and metro area and, GDP growth numbers aside, the city has a much stronger economy, that's all.

No offense taken. However international traffic at LIM continues to grow. LIM has daily non-stop flights to AMS, ATL, *DFW, IAH, JFK, LAX, MAD, MEX, MIA, etc. LIM also has year-round non-stop flights to destinations such as CDG, EWR, FLL, SFO, YYZ, etc. Eventually LIM will have flights to FRA and LHR.

*AA will resume daily non-stop service from DFW on 01APR13.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-03-02 04:34:19 and read 14699 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 142):
Applications are technically do tomorrow, but given its a Saturday, should have all been in today. Is AA going to be uncontested? That is shocking.

I, too, will be quite surprised if that turns out to be the case. AA's prime U.S. competitors have been clamoring for more access to GRU for years - this is the first net-new opportunity that has come up in a while. Very interesting.

Perhaps Delta and United know something we don't, though - even if AA does get everything it wants uncontested, I do wonder whether or not AA will even be able to operate these routes at commercially viable times, though - where on earth are they going to find 2 peak-time GRU slot pairs?

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 144):
Also, by that time, GRU will become a oneworld hub. During 2015, Brazil will have OS with the U.S. and it is very likely that AA will apply for ATI with LATAM's affiliate TAM Airlines.

  

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 144):
It's very important to note that the "new AA" together with LATAM will be a strong alliance between North America and South America in the near-future.

  

You can say that again.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: RodRB
Posted 2013-03-02 04:43:36 and read 14676 times.

Quoting commavia (Reply 148):
where on earth are they going to find 2 peak-time GRU slot pairs?

GRU new terminal 3 will be opened in May, 2014. The new terminal will be able to handle 12 million passengers and will have 22 more gates.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-03-02 04:46:46 and read 14677 times.

Quoting RodRB (Reply 149):
GRU new terminal 3 will be opened in May, 2014. The new terminal will be able to handle 12 million passengers and will have 22 more gates.

But what about LAX, which AA is proposing to commence this November?

Are gates the only challenge with capacity constraint at GRU? What about departure and arrival slots for the runway?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-03-02 05:44:20 and read 14612 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 110):
If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.
ORD isn't MIA or JFK.. For Brazil-U.S. traffic it's mostly a hub, ORD doesn't have the major O/D MIA or JFK have. And location-wise AA DFW wins over ORD big time.
If AA thinks GRU slots are better used for ORD and/or LAX rather than for MIA, JFK or even DFW heck MCO, that's its prerogative.

This is about AA having a full schedule in Miami, JFK & DFW. With an additional slot they need to fly from Chicago to Sao Paulo. Like LHR and NRT, GRU has become a very imporatnt destination from every AA hub.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-03-02 06:03:01 and read 14668 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 142):
Applications are technically do tomorrow, but given its a Saturday, should have all been in today. Is AA going to be uncontested? That is shocking.

I doubt someone at DL lost their calendar. More than likely the next step for DL in Brazil is the second ATL-GRU. DTW-GRU struggles to fill, and ATL-BSB feeds from other parts of Brazil but I doubt it makes money. The second ATL-GRU will make these two other routes look worse, so the numbers probably don't add up.

DL made a mistake with DTW-GRU. It should have added the second ATL-GRU first.

Brazil and the US are also close to scrapping frequency limits. Waiting is not a big loss.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: bos2laf
Posted 2013-03-02 06:21:55 and read 14609 times.

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 38):
FLL-BEL is about 130 miles longer than BOS-SFO, but BEL doesn't have international service so if B6 starts Brazil service, it will be FLL-MAO.

And B6's A320s can barely make BOS-SFO in the winter. I doubt they can add another 130 miles plus all those 70-lb bags that everyone will be checking.

Brazil is worse than the Dominican Republic when it comes to heavy bags, especially because the government mandates allowing up to 70lbs free. The plane would never make it from FLL, it would have to be SJU.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-03-02 07:06:55 and read 14563 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 152):
DL made a mistake with DTW-GRU. It should have added the second ATL-GRU first.

Absolutely not. This DTW-GRU is very strong. The business cabin is full of auto industry folks.

It works for exactly the same reason that DTW-PVG and DTW-NGO work.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-02 07:51:03 and read 14474 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 139):
If, as stated above, GRU-DFW is a prime connecting point to California, and is such a high yielding route for AA, there MUST be some money to be made on GRU-LAX.

Nope, LAXGRU is just filler. Price them out on orbitz or kayak and you'll see DFW fares are sky high compared to LAX, and DFW is much shorter.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
If you look at the timings, the connections to other AA's Asian network and other OneWorld carriers pretty much suck except for a select few.

The Asian connection is way over played; outside of Tokyo, the markets are smaller and US carriers compete with a whole slew of EU, Middle Eastern, African, and Asian carriers.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 103):
100PDEW flying BOS-GRU so clearly a significant amount are not here illegaly and can afford to travel.

BOSGRU is a lot like LAXGRU. It's just not a cornerstone and it's a good bit longer. Frankly I can see AA adding LAXGRU because of AA's mentality of "we need to be there for strategic purposes" and then US canceling it because it's a train wreck when they fire everyone at AMR HQ

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-02 10:59:12 and read 14230 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 145):
Based on those LAX numbers, could AA double the LAX-GRU frequency as the route matures or would it really begin to hurt the DFW/MIA-GRU flights?

You realize those number are rather thin right?

A single flight might struggle let alone double daily.

The O&D is only 242/day. With a nonstop you would be lucky to capture 50% of the market - thats 121 day.

A large chunk of the traffic will always flow on other airlines and gateway, plus you already have the KE nonstop from LAX.

I think AA will find the long flight a struggle to start with (esp on the low density 3-class 777) and going double daily in the market is decade(s) away.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-03-02 11:33:56 and read 14153 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 155):
It's just not a cornerstone and it's a good bit longer.

BOS-GRU is 1200 miles shorter

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=%0D%0Ab...ru%0D%0Alax-gru%0D%0A&MS=wls&DU=mi

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-03-02 11:50:43 and read 14109 times.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 154):

Absolutely not. This DTW-GRU is very strong. The business cabin is full of auto industry folks.

I believe what you say about it. But very strong is not the same as profitable.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-02 13:32:11 and read 13997 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 157):
BOS-GRU is 1200 miles shorter

Whoops, I wasn't very clear but I meant that BOS isn't a cornerstone and LAX is much longer

Quoting incitatus (Reply 158):

I believe what you say about it. But very strong is not the same as profitable.

DL has tried a lot of really silly stuff in Brazil before they got to DTWGRU, and I am confident DTWGRU does very well. They can fill it up but more importantly there's a solid local business component that DL and really only DL owns.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-03-02 13:53:16 and read 13956 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 156):
You realize those number are rather thin right?

A single flight might struggle let alone double daily.

But wouldn't LAX-GRU pull some of the traffic from SFO-GRU and LAS-GRU, where AA has direct own-metal connections? SFO-GRU + LAS-GRU > LAX-GRU alone, based upon the numbers posted above.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-02 14:35:23 and read 13905 times.

For whatever reason AA used unadjusted O&D, which underestimates market size. In FY2012, MIASAO was just a hair under 500,000 annual local passengers; LAXSAO around 125,000 and CHISAO just above 80,000. Those numbers, though, include secondary airports and AA's unadjusted numbers do not.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: HALFA
Posted 2013-03-02 14:40:36 and read 13866 times.

I for one am very happy to hear that AA is proposing LAX- GRU service! People seem to forget that this new flight will not only draw the SFO and LAS crowd, but it will also pull in people like myself that make frequent trips to GIG. If AA can offer seamless connections from GRU to both GIG and SDU with their soon to be oneworld partner JJ, it would be a no brainer! I am in GIG as I write this, and I took AA from HNL to DFW, but this flight arrived in DFW at 0715 and the DFW-GIG flight didn't depart until 1945, forcing me to find an airport hotel for the 12:30 minute layover. With the new flight, I could take AA's morning flight from HNL to LAX, have about a 3 hour layover, and then fly all night to GRU and make the quick connection to Rio, and even better if it were to SDU! And as an added bonus, I avoid the dreaded 0800-0900 GIG arrival and the accompanying Linha Vermelha rush hour into Centro!
If AA is smart with this, they will add JJ connections to all of SE Brazil.

Aloha,
HALFA

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-02 14:51:04 and read 13827 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 161):
For whatever reason AA used unadjusted O&D, which underestimates market size. In FY2012, MIASAO was just a hair under 500,000 annual local passengers; LAXSAO around 125,000 and CHISAO just above 80,000. Those numbers, though, include secondary airports and AA's unadjusted numbers do not.

Well then, lets clear the air. I listed on the ones over 30 PDEW:

Largest O&D markets to GRU:

MIA: 456,422 or 625 PDEW
NYC: 425,801 or 584 PDEW
MCO: 330,893 or 453 PDEW
LAX: 113,509 or 155 PDEW
LAS: 77,355 or 106 PDEW
ORD: 72,398 or 100 PDEW
SFO: 53,896 or 73 PDEW
WAS: 48,891 or 67 PDEW
BOS: 37,241 or 51 PDEW
ATL: 28,084 or 38 PDEW
DFW: 27,258 or 37 PDEW
IAH: 24,311 or 32 PDEW

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: SJOtoLIR
Posted 2013-03-02 15:39:05 and read 13745 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
AA has already announced Curitiba


AA MIA-CWB-POA-MIA makes a resemblance with the former AA MIA-REC-SSA-MIA.




.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
F9 seems to do well in Central America seasonally; I hear SJO is really doing well.


Frontier only flies to both SJO and LIR, in terms of their Central American network: F9 DEN-SJO is 4x weekly nowadays and usually suspended from September to November. F9 DEN-LIR is available on weekly basis.
I seriously doubt about the suitability of any F9 DEN-SJO-GRU with 319 and following the low-cost model over AA GRU-DFW with 777 and then AA DFW-DEN.




.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 114):
AA supplied a list of the largest GRU-USA O&D routes.

1 GRU MIA 307,690
2 GRU JFK 258,022
3 GRU MCO 216,669
4 GRU LAX 88,428
5 GRU LAS 64,056
6 GRU EWR 61,393
7 GRU ORD 48,445
8 GRU SFO 43,220
9 BOS GRU 29,990
10 GRU IAD 27,615


I didn't read GRU-DTW.
DL GRU-LAX 7x weekly didn't work in the past.
It's remarkable how GRU-LAX almost doubles GRU-ORD.


Regards.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2013-03-02 16:10:41 and read 13649 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 163):
Well then, lets clear the air. I listed on the ones over 30 PDEW:

Largest O&D markets to GRU:

MIA: 456,422 or 625 PDEW
NYC: 425,801 or 584 PDEW
MCO: 330,893 or 453 PDEW
LAX: 113,509 or 155 PDEW
LAS: 77,355 or 106 PDEW
ORD: 72,398 or 100 PDEW
SFO: 53,896 or 73 PDEW
WAS: 48,891 or 67 PDEW
BOS: 37,241 or 51 PDEW
ATL: 28,084 or 38 PDEW
DFW: 27,258 or 37 PDEW
IAH: 24,311 or 32 PDEW

Put convenient connections to LAS and SFO into the mix (not to mention other points less traveled in the west and Hawaii), and the daily pax numbers seem reasonable. Of course they won't capture 100% of the market, and yields are yet to be seen. I really want this flight to work!!!

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-02 16:33:05 and read 13630 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 143):
Both AA and UA have tried this and it has failed miserably.

AA might have failed, but as I recall UA did ORD-EZE for a good part of a decade (some years seasonal).
One would assume it must have been doing well enough to hang on for so long.....

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 160):
But wouldn't LAX-GRU pull some of the traffic from SFO-GRU and LAS-GRU, where AA has direct own-metal connections? SFO-GRU + LAS-GRU > LAX-GRU alone, based upon the numbers posted above.

Sure it might, but such traffic already has a dozen 1-stop options via MIA, DFW, IAH, ORD, IAD, MCO, NYC, etc.. on multiple airlines.

Ultimately a LAX flight might skim a few SFO, Vegas, Phoenix passengers, but its a bit akin to a water leak - there are already plenty of avenues for the existing traffic flow from these cities so no assurance they will route via LA. (unless you make it so cheap for them to pick LA on purpose).

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-03-02 16:48:55 and read 13561 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 166):
but such traffic already has a dozen 1-stop options via MIA, DFW, IAH, ORD, IAD, MCO, NYC, etc.. on multiple airlines.

True, but if I was flying SFO-GRU and had a choice between flying a short hop to LAX to pickup a nonstop on the same airline, vs. via a midcon or east coast hub, LAX would be a compelling choice to me, at least. Price isn't always my first consideration when the difference is nominal—routing and total length of the trip play an important role as well.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: nomorerjs
Posted 2013-03-02 17:09:55 and read 13545 times.

I think SA)">AA has a shot on GRU-ORD, but needs to adjust times to connect with Asia (need new Beijing slots, adjust PVG slightly, add KHG (to compliment CX), and bring the 787 to KIX, NGO, ICN timed to connect with GRU (in late 2014), and ORD can support more than 1 daily to deep SA.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-03-02 17:43:18 and read 13497 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 166):
Ultimately a LAX flight might skim a few SFO, Vegas, Phoenix passengers, but its a bit akin to a water leak - there are already plenty of avenues for the existing traffic flow from these cities so no assurance they will route via LA. (unless you make it so cheap for them to pick LA on purpose).

Indeed so...but then AA has a large enough footprint in Brasil to probably generate a decent enough amount of Brasil originating traffic.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jetlanta
Posted 2013-03-02 22:19:17 and read 13263 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 158):
I believe what you say about it. But very strong is not the same as profitable.

In this case, it is.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: RodRB
Posted 2013-03-03 07:14:47 and read 13077 times.

DOT has released the traffic numbers between US and Brazil for August:

Korean Air

772
GRU-LAX - 2036 pax - 41.041 Lbs - 58.6%
LAX-GRU - 2229 pax - 145.596 Lbs - 64.2%


TAM

763
BSB-MIA - 2969 pax - 24.325 Lbs - 85.2%
CNF-MIA - 2347 pax - 8.039 Lbs - 81.8%
MIA-BSB - 2911 pax - 77.018 Lbs - 78.9%
MIA-CNF - 1891 pax - 229.464 Lbs - 71.0%
MAO-MIA - 4230 pax - 143.312 Lbs - 66.6%
MIA-MAO - 4480 pax - 482.893 Lbs - 70.5%
GIG-MIA - 5411 pax - 194.711 Lbs - 85.1%
MIA-GIG - 5530 pax - 424.750 Lbs - 87.0%

A332
GRU-MCO - 12332 pax - 110.312 Lbs - 90.4%
MCO-GRU - 12314 pax - 473.711 Lbs - 90.3%
GRU-MIA - 11909 pax - 779.057 Lbs - 86.1%
MIA-GRU - 11320 pax - 1.026.661 Lbs - 81.9%
JFK-GRU - 11911 pax - 799.000 Lbs - 89.4%
GRU-JFK - 12130 pax - 838.189 Lbs - 91.0%
JFK-GIG - 4988 pax - 300.282 Lbs - 85.9%
GIG-JFK - 5321 pax - 95.447 Lbs - 91.7%


DELTA

752
ATL-BSB - 3847 pax - 499 Lbs - 73.0%
BSB-ATL - 4567 pax - 386 Lbs - 86.7%

763
ATL-GIG - 5326 pax - 448,493 Lbs - 82.8%
GIG-ATL - 5919 pax - 560.658 Lbs - 92.0%
DTW-GRU - 4693 pax - 266.726 Lbs - 74.8%
GRU-DTW - 5222 pax - 288.760 Lbs - 83.3%

764
ATL-GRU - 6905 pax - 366.501 Lbs - 88.2%
GRU-ATL - 7081 pax - 342.303 Lbs - 93.0%
JFK-GRU - 6029 pax - 343.822 Lbs - 79.6%
GRU-JFK - 6673 pax - 298.882 Lbs - 87.6%


762
CLT-GIG - 4891 pax - 13.563 Lbs - 79.9%
GIG-CLT - 5067 pax - 7.760 Lbs - 82.8%

UNITED

762
IAH-GRU - 4435 pax - 195,531 Lbs - 85.0%
GRU-IAH - 4654 pax - 143,318 Lbs - 86.3%

764
EWR-GRU - 6182 pax - 124,962 Lbs - 82.7%
GRU-EWR - 6444 pax - 214.743 Lbs - 86.2%
IAH-GIG - 5726 pax - 404,392 Lbs - 79.4%
GIG-IAH - 5770 pax - 86,487 Lbs - 79.9%

772
ORD-GRU - 6455 pax - 602.236 Lbs - 78.1%
GRU-ORD - 6901 pax - 579.650 Lbs - 83.5%
IAD-GRU-GIG - 6062 pax - 442.110 Lbs - 73.3%
GIG-GRU-IAD - 6704 pax - 387,226 Lbs - 81.0%
AMERICAN

738
MIA-MAO - 2487 pax - 0 Lbs - 53.6%
MAO-MIA - 2744 pax - 387 Lbs - 59.9%

752
MIA-BSB - 3649 pax - 4.916 Lbs - 77.1%
BSB-MIA - 3103 pax - 0 Lbs - 65.6%

MIA-SSA-REC - 3803 pax - 3.000 Lbs - 72.7%
SSA-REC-MIA - 4229 pax - 237 Lbs - 83.6%

763
DFW-GIG - 1927 pax - 67.617 Lbs - 67.7%
GIG-DFW - 2586 pax - 70.910 Lbs - 84.7%
DFW-GRU - 1933 pax - 177.462 Lbs - 73.6%
GRU-DFW* - 2142 pax - 59.493 Lbs - 69.8%
MIA-CNF - 4382 pax - 215.922 Lbs - 83.5%
CNF-MIA - 4436 pax - 103.035 Lbs - 81.1%
MIA-GIG* - 5766 pax - 268.112 Lbs - 82.5%
GIG-MIA - 5642 pax - 530.062 Lbs - 86.0%
MIA-GRU - 4683 pax - 285,425 Lbs - 76.4%
GRU-MIA - 5416 pax - 226,427 Lbs - 82.4%
JFK-GIG - 5640 pax - 285,225 Lbs - 83.3%
GIG-JFK - 5924 pax - 198,061 Lbs - 87.4%

772

DFW-GRU - 5989 pax - 816,521 Lbs - 81.2%
GRU-DFW - 6656 pax - 576,357 Lbs - 90.2%
MIA-GRU - 12136 pax - 1,017,924 Lbs - 82.8%
GRU-MIA - 12472 pax - 1,269,369 Lbs - 84.5%
JFK-GRU - 6336 pax - 756,002 Lbs - 83.1%
GRU-JFK - 6726 pax - 564,671 Lbs - 88.2%

Courtesy of LipeGIG

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-03-03 11:43:31 and read 12835 times.

Interesting applications but make me think that some market adjustments will be required.

LAX will see hard competition from DL and UA in terms of pricing. They will make AA suffer a lot in terms of yields for the O&D and they probably can't charge a premium for the local O&D LAX-GRU. The same happen when DL tried their LAX-GRU.
KE runs a flight with 50% ICN traffic, so it does not make a lot of difference.

Some raise the point that connections may help.. but my question would be , where they connect today ? The world is not in an expansion cycle and slowly i see more discounted fares being available than full fares.
AA tried the daylight JFK-GRU and clearly worked only during peak months (i took one with 1F 6J 80Y) and it is always available with less miles on Advantage.

Would LAX canibalizes DFW ? I can see that probably AA will not run the 3x weekly additional flights DFW-GRU and that helps to force the market to use LAX. But LAX do not offer the level of connections that DFW and MIA offers!

Talking about business, it is clear that they can sustain a flight IF the market accepts the idea to connect thru LAX (because business ties are all over California and not only located in Los Angeles area), and it depends on the focus of each visit... the arrival time means that you will lose the entire day (arrival time at 12:55 means you will be in the city not before 2:30-3:00 PM) travelling while other options may allow early morning arrival (of course considering an early departure from LAX). More important, traffic comes from Bay Area and other Californian markets and goes to other places in Brazil (Pimco for example have their South America office in Rio).

ORD in my view means UA will try to protect their market ! Good for Chicago, bad for Air Canada and Delta, as they will face also the consequences of a new competitor trying to capture part of the demand. For AA customers outside of Chicago, i can't see any other advantage other than price, as their trips will in general be longer, and arrival times will not be good. MIA will continue to offer a better schedule coverage ( MIA offers in the summer 5:50 AM / 7 and 9 AM Sao Paulo arrival) as well as better departure times. In the other hand the GRU-ORD seems good for connections as it allows early night departure (on summer schedule, as the proposed schedule seems to be a winter one with +2h) and that could bring customers nowadays using DTW as a hub of choice.

And it seems AA decided to wait to apply for POA-CWB, a big mistake in my view, but for sure they are trying to keep the demand thru São Paulo. A new MIA flight together with the new LAX could be too much for this moment.

In my view, AA would do better if they try to run a 2nd JFK-GRU with better schedule (earlier departure from New York, late departure out of Sao Paulo). This will increase the market coverage in a premium market, that in my opinion would be better than ORD-GRU.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-03-03 11:50:55 and read 12799 times.

Looks like we're getting close to there being far more frequencies than demand. Mine as well have open skies.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-03 12:32:25 and read 12755 times.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 172):
And it seems AA decided to wait to apply for POA-CWB, a big mistake in my view, but for sure they are trying to keep the demand thru São Paulo. A new MIA flight together with the new LAX could be too much for this moment.

MIA-CWB-POA-MIA launches 19 December 2013. Not sure why AA hasn't applied yet, but that's the start date announced last week.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-03 12:53:37 and read 12702 times.

Quoting RodRB (Reply 171):
Korean Air

772
GRU-LAX - 2036 pax - 41.041 Lbs - 58.6%
LAX-GRU - 2229 pax - 145.596 Lbs - 64.2%

Month after month, rather anemic loads. I can see why KE dropped their plans to increase 6x weekly.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 172):
LAX will see hard competition from DL and UA in terms of pricing. They will make AA suffer a lot in terms of yields for the O&D and they probably can't charge a premium for the local O&D LAX-GRU.

  

If anyone can make LAX-GRU work, I say it would be AA, but its still going to have a struggle on its hands for this long 12 hour flight.

I think both loads and yields will be interesting, and no I don't see them managing much if any of a premium on a nonstop. There are simply too many ways to get to GRU 1-stop even on AA itself that people can chose to save a few dollars.

Also I personally think the premium heavy 3-class is 777 is wrong mix of plane. Cabin wise a 2-class 763 likely be more appropriate.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 173):
Mine as well have open skies.

Outside of Sao Paulo we effectively already have open-skies. Just everyone wants to keep pilling more flights into a capacity constrained airport.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-03 14:54:44 and read 12558 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 175):
If anyone can make LAX-GRU work, I say it would be AA, but its still going to have a struggle on its hands for this long 12 hour flight.

AA has the customer base in Brazil.
UA may have the best connections for LAX-GRU-LAX @ LAX.

Quote:
Outside of Sao Paulo we effectively already have open-skies. Just everyone wants to keep pilling more flights into a capacity constrained airport.

VCP should be considered "rest of Brazil" and lets see how many U.S. airlines would like to fly there, regardless of its terminal and the distance to São Paulo.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: AAEXP
Posted 2013-03-03 14:59:13 and read 12572 times.

Very little discussion on CNF. Is AA going to be the only US player in that market?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: tonytifao
Posted 2013-03-03 17:34:34 and read 12391 times.

Quoting AAEXP (Reply 177):
Very little discussion on CNF. Is AA going to be the only US player in that market?

Surprised not to see DL there.

Back in the days both CO and UA served CNF.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2013-03-04 01:26:28 and read 12130 times.

Quoting tonytifao (Reply 178):
Surprised not to see DL there.

Back in the days both CO and UA served CNF.

Agree with you guys. In the original opening of CNF frequencies, DL apply for CNF. Let's see if they do again this time.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-04 06:35:28 and read 11945 times.

Looks like a possible UA EWR-CNF seems to have a better chance of success than DL ATL-CNF.
UA should also look at EWR-SSA, Thrice weekly EWR-SSA-CNF red-eyes both ways perhaps?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-03-04 06:57:26 and read 11876 times.

So I guess the deadline has come and gone?

And only AA applied?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-04 08:35:51 and read 11769 times.

Either the websites are slow to be updated, or AA indeed is the only one that wishes new service at this time.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-04 09:19:11 and read 11690 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 179):
Agree with you guys. In the original opening of CNF frequencies, DL apply for CNF. Let's see if they do again this time.

The only thing of relevance here are the 28 unused GRU frequency (14/2013, 14/12014).

There are already unused frequencies for cities airports outside of GRU - including GIG - so there has been nothing stopping airlines from applying.

Indeed, it appears as if AA was the only applicant for GRU, assuming that the original "within 15 day" deadline didn't move to Monday because the 15th day fell on a weekend (this is possible; we'll know today).

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-04 14:24:57 and read 11451 times.

Delta has just applied to double their presence at GRU by applying for daily ATL and daily JFK service for 2013 and daily DTW for 2014.

Now, we have US Airways applying for CLT-GRU in 2013 and PHL-GRU in 2014. The frequencies for CLT-GRU will replace United's leased frequencies.

We've got a party now with a full route case! It will be very interesting how this develops, especially since slot applications for GRU are due May 16th. If the DOT does not issue a final order by then, we may have a problem for routes starting next winter.
http://www2.anac.gov.br/ComitedeFaci...rio%20ANAC%20W13_versao%20site.pdf

[Edited 2013-03-04 14:37:36]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-04 14:42:49 and read 11344 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 184):
Delta has just applied to double their presence at GRU by applying for daily ATL and daily JFK service for 2013 and daily DTW for 2014.

I thought DL flew DTWGRU daily?!

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-03-04 14:45:40 and read 11320 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 185):
I thought DL flew DTWGRU daily?!

It does.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-04 14:47:05 and read 11381 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 185):
Quoting C010T3 (Reply 184):
Delta has just applied to double their presence at GRU by applying for daily ATL and daily JFK service for 2013 and daily DTW for 2014.

I thought DL flew DTWGRU daily?!

But Delta needs to give up seven GRU frequencies in 2015. So it's looking to essentially keep them.

Of course, the US-AA merger throws things into a major loop here, including that transfer of DL GRU slots to US in 2015.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-03-04 14:57:33 and read 11291 times.

Now it is clear they are trying to protect and secure frequencies.
There's no market at all for these flights.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 39):
CLT-GIG is at much greater risk than CLT-GRU. The Sao Paulo - USA market is overall about double the size of Rio - USA and it is much richer. AA can use CLT-GRU to ensure that every small market in the US served by DL through ATL has an alternative through CLT on AA. I wouldn't count it out right now but anything is possible.

What no one says: Sao Paulo-USA is 2.5x Rio-USA in general, but the offer is .... almost 3x smaller. I don't see that much problem with CLT-GIG running with 80% LF year round.
But it make sense, Sao Paulo poppulation is 3x bigger and Sao Paulo GDP is 2.8x bigger. The difference is explained by the fact Rio is a desired destination for both business and leisure.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-04 15:08:00 and read 11248 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 187):
Of course, the US-AA merger throws things into a major loop here, including that transfer of DL GRU slots to US in 2015.

It gets even more complicated than that. When the DOT allowed United to lease their grandfather frequencies to US Airways, they revoked their grandfather status. If US Airways receives the frequency allocation, United will see itself holding 7 GRU-eligible frequencies that they must use within 90 days:

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0183-0004

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: mah4546
Posted 2013-03-04 15:39:18 and read 11220 times.

Here's the interesting thing:

DL is applying for DTWGRU frequencies because it has to send thoes frequencies to US in 2015.

US is applying for CLTGRU frequencies because it will have to return those frequencies to UA in 2014. It ignores the fact it's supposed to get DL frequencies in 2015.

In the end, assuming that the transfer of US slots to DL is a deal that will stand (as DL claims) and no application from UA, I predict:

2013 award goes to AA/LAXGRU and DL/ATLGRU.

2014 award goes to DL/DTWGRU and US/PHLGRU.

And then also is this fact: will DOT consider US/AA "merged?" Probably not, and if/when merger is finalized, then maybe DOT will revist the allocations. But even then, let's say US gets PHLGRU - why would AA+US wants PHLGRU over ORDGRU? It probably would not, especially when it has 21w JFK-Brazil flights!

[Edited 2013-03-04 15:40:40]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: sonomaflyer
Posted 2013-03-04 15:53:06 and read 11100 times.

These routes (especially from the West Coast) might be profitable with the 788. AA might start the LAX service with a 772 (two class) and switch it to the 788 once they arrive. I don't see any west coast routes outside of GRU given the numbers and distance involved. UA could add more services from IAH which would make sense for those connecting out of SFO, LAX, SEA, LAS, SAN etc.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-03-04 16:03:14 and read 11098 times.

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 191):
These routes (especially from the West Coast) might be profitable with the 788. AA might start the LAX service with a 772 (two class) and switch it to the 788 once they arrive. I don't see any west coast routes outside of GRU given the numbers and distance involved. UA could add more services from IAH which would make sense for those connecting out of SFO, LAX, SEA, LAS, SAN etc.

AA has already stated it will start LAX-GRU in 2013 with an F configured 772.

AA won't start reconfiguring any of it's 772s until 2014 and AA's first 787 isn't expected to be delivered until Q4 2014 - both well after the proposed start date for the route.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-04 17:11:48 and read 10971 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 190):
DL is applying for DTWGRU frequencies because it has to send thoes frequencies to US in 2015.

US is applying for CLTGRU frequencies because it will have to return those frequencies to UA in 2014. It ignores the fact it's supposed to get DL frequencies in 2015.

I really think the DOT should summon UA to the table here. When they are planning to use their frequencies is crucial. In a normal proceeding US would have absolute priority in the frequency allocation for CLT-GRU, since they are the new entrants here.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-04 17:43:07 and read 10922 times.

So here is a summary of Delta and US Airways request

2013 allocation

Delta:
7 x ATL-GRU - B763 (1st priority)
7 x JFK-GRU - no equipment mentioned (2nd priority)
Basically Delta simply seeks to go double daily on ATL & JFK services.

US Airways:
7 x CLT-GRU - A332 (replace the 7 leased slots from United)

2014 allocation

Delta:
7 x DTW-GRU - B763 - backfill frequencies it loses to US Airways as part of its DCA/LGA slot swap.

US Airways:
7 x PHL-GRU - A332

[Edited 2013-03-04 18:05:50]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Rafabozzolla
Posted 2013-03-04 18:01:45 and read 10801 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 194):
US Airways
7 x CLT-GRU - A332 (replace the 7 leased slots from United)

2014 allocation

Delta:
7 x DTW-GRU - B763 - backfill frequencies it loses to US Airways as part of its DCA/LGA slot swap.

If US gets slots from the swap with Delta, why do they need to apply for the 7 leased from United? I don't get it.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-04 18:04:08 and read 10768 times.

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 195):
If US gets slots from the swap with Delta, why do they need to apply for the 7 leased from United? I don't get it.

I guess because they cost money.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-04 18:17:21 and read 10812 times.

US Airways put a press release out about its proposal.

US Airways Applies For Service Between Its Charlotte And Philadelphia Hubs And Sao Paulo, Brazil
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-air...s-between-charlotte-234100626.html


Also looking at the US Airways app, here is the schedules they are proposing;

US802 CLT-GRU 2030-0900 A332
US803 GRU-CLT 0045-0745 A332

US804 PHL-GRU 2100-0945 A332
US805 GRU-PHL 2235-0740 A332

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-05 06:00:40 and read 10285 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 197):
Also looking at the US Airways app, here is the schedules they are proposing;

US802 CLT-GRU 2030-0900 A332
US803 GRU-CLT 0045-0745 A332

US804 PHL-GRU 2100-0945 A332
US805 GRU-PHL 2235-0740 A332

Hope US knows what its doing.
Flying to GRU from both CLT and PHL hubs may not work well for yields.
And does US have room @ GRU to keep its aircraft between flights?
Talking about lack of U.S. West Coast - Brazil flights, US should have been more creative and apply for PHX-GRU-GIG instead of PHL-GRU..

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: sonomaflyer
Posted 2013-03-05 06:07:07 and read 10249 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 198):
Talking about lack of U.S. West Coast - Brazil flights, US should have been more creative and apply for PHX-GRU-GIG instead of PHL-GRU..

Given 2/3 of the U.S. population is in the east, it makes sense for a first time entrant to start there rather than out west. None of the airlines have done great from the west and US likely wants to take a cautious approach vis a vie east versus west.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-05 06:21:30 and read 10216 times.

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 199):
Given 2/3 of the U.S. population is in the east, it makes sense for a first time entrant to start there rather than out west. None of the airlines have done great from the west and US likely wants to take a cautious approach vis a vie east versus west.

Not to mention that people forget that Brazil is so far east that flying through the US East Coast is not as circuitous as they think. Depending on the itinerary, it is as circuitous as flying to Europe through the East Coast.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: tonytifao
Posted 2013-03-05 06:33:13 and read 10175 times.

Anyone has the schedule for MIA-CWB-POA-MIA?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-03-05 06:57:21 and read 10197 times.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 190):

In the end, assuming that the transfer of US slots to DL is a deal that will stand (as DL claims) and no application from UA, I predict:

2013 award goes to AA/LAXGRU and DL/ATLGRU.

2014 award goes to DL/DTWGRU and US/PHLGRU.

Given past priorities have been give to new routes and new carriers I don't see how DL/ATL-GRU is going to trump AA/LAX-GRU and US/CLT-GRU.

Some logic goes for DL/DTW-GRU over US/PHL-GRU and AA/GRU-ORD in 2014, especially with open skies coming in 2015 the logic doesn't hold for DL even though US/AA may be merged at this time.

However, if US does get CLT-GRU I'm not sure what UA would do ... try and trump AA in the ORD-GRU market? Probably not the best move though with IAD/IAH/EWR as options.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-05 07:03:13 and read 10208 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 202):
Given past priorities have been give to new routes and new carriers I don't see how DL/ATL-GRU is going to trump AA/LAX-GRU and US/CLT-GRU.

CLT-GRU is going to get priority.

After that, LAX-GRU probably will get second dibs. Though a premium heavy 777 is a bad aircraft for it.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-05 07:45:39 and read 10151 times.

I think you guys are absolutely right - DOT will look to award new markets (AA/US) before it seeks allow service to be doubled up on existing routes (DL).

Only twist that I can see with this however is Delta is using the same arguments that is successfully used on the Haneda route case, that its currently significantly disadvantaged in service frequency compared to competitors.
Delta repeatedly mentions that if the department indeed seeks to promote competition, it must award Delta the slots and help correct the imbalance where AA hold over double the number of GRU slots compared to it. Dl further states that the AA-US merger would also further cementing the AA dominance against competitors.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-05 07:52:27 and read 10113 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 204):
Only twist that I can see with this however is Delta is using the same arguments that is successfully used on the Haneda route case, that its currently significantly disadvantaged in service frequency compared to competitors.
Delta repeatedly mentions that if the department indeed seeks to promote competition, it must award Delta the slots and help correct the imbalance where AA hold over double the number of GRU slots compared to it. Dl further states that the AA-US merger would also further cementing the AA dominance against competitors.

I can see that working too. The only thing I will bet on (for sure) is US being awarded CLT-GRU. After that, it could go either way.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-05 07:56:46 and read 10082 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 198):
Talking about lack of U.S. West Coast - Brazil flights, US should have been more creative and apply for PHX-GRU-GIG instead of PHL-GRU..

PHX-GRU would be the worst thing any carrier could do. No local market and what exists is trash yields. The connections its serves also have trash yields.

It would be more cost effective to set fire to a huge pile of cash.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: OA412
Posted 2013-03-05 08:22:09 and read 10042 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 202):
Some logic goes for DL/DTW-GRU over US/PHL-GRU and AA/GRU-ORD in 2014, especially with open skies coming in 2015 the logic doesn't hold for DL even though US/AA may be merged at this time.

DL has to transfer Brazil slots to US in 2015 due to the LGA/DCA slot swap. Those slots are currently used to operate DTW-GRU, so DL is essentially asking for slots to continue operating the service past 2015. I think US will most likely get PHL-GRU, but giving AA ORD-GRU is trickier. There is already an airline flying the route and AA is the dominant US-Brazil airline, whereas DTW-GRU is a service that no other airline is going to offer.

Also keep in mind that just because US-Brazil open skies is coming doesn't mean that there will suddenly be a ton of slots available at GRU. GRU is still a slot constrained airport, and airlines will continue to find it difficult to add new services there.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-05 08:25:24 and read 10015 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 206):
PHX-GRU would be the worst thing any carrier could do. No local market and what exists is trash yields. The connections its serves also have trash yields.

LAS-GRU would be another story..

Last time I checked, under Brazil - South Africa bilateral SA has rights for Brazil - LAX.
Not sure of the like-hood of Star Alliance SA doing UA the favour of flying GRU-LAX before AA wants to fly LAX-GRU.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Nostromopilot
Posted 2013-03-05 09:29:19 and read 9921 times.

Is there literally anywhere else left in Brazil destination-wise that AA could viably make work? I'm thinking maybe Fortaleza?

Cordoba, Argentina is still apparently in the making...... Could we see Cuzco some day as well? Also, do we know the timeframe for Georgetown and Paramaribo?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: cokepopper
Posted 2013-03-05 10:28:07 and read 9847 times.

It looks like Delta is asking for Both JFK/ATL to GRU

http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1918

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-03-05 13:29:10 and read 9602 times.

I have a quick questions concerning UA unused frequencies that were leased to US.

How many frequencies did UA lease to US? because I thought (and I could be wrong) that the reason US was able to start CLT-GIG is because UA leased them those 7 frequencies when UA decided no longer to fly IAD-GIG nonstop instead flying IAD-GRU-GIG.

Did UA also lease US frequencies for them to start CLT-GRU as well? Or is the CLT-GIG route being flown on frequencies that US was awarded from the DOT?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-05 13:47:08 and read 9566 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 211):
How many frequencies did UA lease to US?

7 unrestricted frequencies under the 2009 agreement that runs will 2015.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 211):
because I thought (and I could be wrong) that the reason US was able to start CLT-GIG is because UA leased them those 7 frequencies

Correct.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 211):
Did UA also lease US frequencies for them to start CLT-GRU as well?

The 7 unrestricted frequencies will now be utilized to launch GRU starting in June.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 211):
Or is the CLT-GIG route being flown on frequencies that US was awarded from the DOT?

In 2011, as part of a Brazil frequency proceeding by the DOT, US Airways was one of the airlines that won an allocation.

Since this time, US Airways has attempted to launch GRU services, but has been thwarted due lack of commercially viable slots available. Now finally in June 2013 it will commence the Sao Paulo service.


So basically what US Airways is seeking today is 7 frequencies to backfill the leased UA slots which need to go back, and 7 additional frequencies to commence PHL service.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: crAAzy
Posted 2013-03-05 15:29:14 and read 9397 times.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 207):

DL has to transfer Brazil slots to US in 2015 due to the LGA/DCA slot swap. Those slots are currently used to operate DTW-GRU, so DL is essentially asking for slots to continue operating the service past 2015.

True but that's the risk DL took when they agreed to the deal. Just because they're giving them away to US as part of the deal doesn't guarantee DL is going to get prime slots back. There's a reason they decided to wait until 2015 and that was because of coming open skies agreement. Besides with the DL investment in GOL, I don't think DL is going to have any problem getting an adequate slot pair at GRU if they need one.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 204):

Only twist that I can see with this however is Delta is using the same arguments that is successfully used on the Haneda route case, that its currently significantly disadvantaged in service frequency compared to competitors.
Delta repeatedly mentions that if the department indeed seeks to promote competition, it must award Delta the slots and help correct the imbalance where AA hold over double the number of GRU slots compared to it. Dl further states that the AA-US merger would also further cementing the AA dominance against competitors.

A valid argument. It would be made even stronger if DL were flying it's largest aircraft out of JFK and ATL into GRU and the proposed departure times were significantly different for the flights.

While I don't know the proposed times of the flights, applying for the slots with smaller aircraft (763) departing around the same time as the other flights just seems like taking up a slot for sitting on it.

ATL their first slot choice has no competition to begin so it doesn't promote competition. They could make an argument for competition with a JFK slot but with AA/JJ/UA in the NYC market they know it's a much tougher market given the offerings of AA and JJ.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: ocracoke
Posted 2013-03-05 16:28:33 and read 9292 times.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 213):
Besides with the DL investment in GOL, I don't think DL is going to have any problem getting an adequate slot pair at GRU if they need one.

Using that argument, AA doesn't need any new slots because it can just get whatever it wants from it's soon-to-be oneworld partner, TAM.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 213):
A valid argument. It would be made even stronger if DL were flying it's largest aircraft out of JFK and ATL into GRU and the proposed departure times were significantly different for the flights.

DL has tried to fly larger aircraft to Brasil (747), but have been denied by the Brasilian authorities.

At the end of the day, if AA gets 2 slots, and US gets 2 slots, and then DL gives 1 of its slots to US per the LGA/DCA transaction, and the AA/US merger goes through without having to give up any Brasilian slots, the new AA ends up with 11 daily flights* to GRU, and DL only 2. Think the DOT will go for that? The rich keep getting richer.

*if my math is correct.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-03-05 16:35:09 and read 9261 times.

Quoting ocracoke (Reply 214):
At the end of the day, if AA gets 2 slots, and US gets 2 slots, and then DL gives 1 of its slots to US per the LGA/DCA transaction, and the AA/US merger goes through without having to give up any Brasilian slots, the new AA ends up with 11 daily flights* to GRU, and DL only 2. Think the DOT will go for that? The rich keep getting richer.

Perhaps, but they cannot rule that AA/US are one carrier at this time since it isn't approved. Will the DOT require the new AA to surrender some GRU slots as part of the merger remains to be seen.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-06 05:53:15 and read 8924 times.

Quoting ocracoke (Reply 214):
DL has tried to fly larger aircraft to Brasil (747), but have been denied by the Brasilian authorities.

I thought the frequency slots (allocation) weren't limited to certain aircraft type.
Could DL ATL-GRU support year-around daily B747?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-06 06:14:06 and read 8891 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 216):
I thought the frequency slots (allocation) weren't limited to certain aircraft type.

They aren't. Brazilian authorities wouldn't be able to refuse such a request. Only the airport operator could refuse the aircraft type. GRU terminals has serious gate limitations, since they weren't planned to handle the 747. The appropriate jetbridges could be unavailable for the times Delta needed them. If DL were willing to use a remote gate, it wouldn't be a problem.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-03-06 06:17:43 and read 8896 times.

Quoting ocracoke (Reply 214):
At the end of the day, if AA gets 2 slots, and US gets 2 slots, and then DL gives 1 of its slots to US per the LGA/DCA transaction, and the AA/US merger goes through without having to give up any Brasilian slots, the new AA ends up with 11 daily flights* to GRU, and DL only 2. Think the DOT will go for that? The rich keep getting richer.

Doubtful that is going to happen. The DOT will spread the wealth around a bit more then giving AA 5 times more then DL. Delta should buy back the slot from USair if the merger with AA goes through. In this whole situation at GRU United is not poor, it flies from 4 hubs nonstop to Sao Paulo.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2013-03-06 06:36:20 and read 8841 times.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
Id have to look, but Im pretty sure Boston is the largest market in the US without nonstop service to Brazil.

But most New England lusophones (Portuguese-speakers) are not from Brazil -- but rather from the Azores, the Cape Verde Islands, and Portugal.

Not sure there would be a customer base.

[Edited 2013-03-06 06:46:58]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-03-06 06:44:07 and read 8839 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 217):
GRU terminals has serious gate limitations, since they weren't planned to handle the 747. The appropriate jetbridges could be unavailable for the times Delta needed them. If DL were willing to use a remote gate, it wouldn't be a problem.

I understand GRU severe gate limitations but I've noticed (last time I was in GRU was a couple of years ago) that it has a (remote) pier where passengers are taken by bus to/from the aircraft. I flew CM and experienced that.
If DL won't add seats between ATL and GRU because its B747 can't use a jet-way and must disembark/embark using stairs and buses, there's something wrong w/DL.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-06 08:36:11 and read 8696 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 219):
But most New England lusophones (Portuguese-speakers) are not from Brazil -- but rather from the Azores, the Cape Verde Islands, and Portugal.

Not sure there would be a customer base.

There is a large Brazilian expat community in Massachusetts.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: FreshSide3
Posted 2013-03-06 09:28:48 and read 8645 times.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):

LAXGIG wold never work.

I think it could, as a sesonal and/or non-daily flight....but not a year-round daily flight.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 221):
There is a large Brazilian expat community in Massachusetts.

There are, but there are more from Portugal itself, as opposed to Brazil. I think BOS, though, would have to depend on YYZ/SFO/LAX feeding it to make it viable.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: DFWEagle
Posted 2013-03-06 09:45:39 and read 8655 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 204):
Only twist that I can see with this however is Delta is using the same arguments that is successfully used on the Haneda route case, that its currently significantly disadvantaged in service frequency compared to competitors.
Delta repeatedly mentions that if the department indeed seeks to promote competition, it must award Delta the slots and help correct the imbalance where AA hold over double the number of GRU slots compared to it. Dl further states that the AA-US merger would also further cementing the AA dominance against competitors.

Delta’s argument about being disadvantaged in the number of GRU frequencies they hold is a little dubious given that they chose to give away 25% of the GRU frequencies that had been awarded to them to US Airways as part of the LGA slot deal. If they are willing to trade away their GRU frequencies for other assets, then of course they will end up with fewer of them.

In any case, it’s true that DL would still be disadvantaged in the number of frequencies it holds, but it will be tough to justify giving them more frequencies for that reason alone, if their proposed use brings little improved access or schedule to the market.

DL fails to provide a proposed schedule for the new ATL-GRU flights, but we can assume that it will be similar to the existing ATL-GRU flight, rather than providing a new schedule option. The local ATL-GRU market is not large and it would likely be of greater public benefit to award US CLT-GRU instead. It would still provide more capacity in the region by serving most of the same connecting markets, and also introduce new competition into the Southeast USA-Brazil market. I can't see both sets of frequencies being awarded for the same region of the USA. I think a second JFK-GRU is more likely, but still not a strong proposal.

Also, DL still uses the 767 on their GRU flights, despite having a fleet of various larger aircraft types that could be used to increase capacity if it were required. I don’t know what the problem was with the 744, but AA has had no problem in up-gauging all their flights to the 777 and 77W as required. Did DL try the 333 or 772?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: DFWEagle
Posted 2013-03-06 09:56:31 and read 8620 times.

As for US Airways, it seems to me that they are being deliberately misleading. They have CLT-GRU frequencies leased from UA until mid-2015, yet they claim that they need new frequencies in 2013 to maintain the service. This is obviously to save the costs of the lease from UA. That in itself is fair enough, but they then completely fail to mention the frequencies that Delta is obligated to transfer to them in 2015 as part of the LGA slot deal.

Delta is applying for DTW-GRU frequencies to backfill the ones going to US, yet US makes no mention of them and applies for more frequencies for the same thing. The DOT should award only one of DTW-GRU or CLT-GRU because there already has been adequate frequencies allocated previously to fund one of those services. That is without even considering the leased UA frequencies. The DOT should tell DL and US to sort this out now and decide who needs to apply and who does not, to make sure the public gets the maximum benefit from these scarce resources.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXdude1023
Posted 2013-03-06 10:00:53 and read 8599 times.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 224):
They have CLT-GRU frequencies leased from UA until mid-2015, yet they claim that they need new frequencies in 2013 to maintain the service. This is obviously to save the costs of the lease from UA.

Would the DOT award allow US Airways to have a better slot time at GRU? If so, I can see that being a motivating factor.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-06 10:16:47 and read 8573 times.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 224):
That in itself is fair enough, but they then completely fail to mention the frequencies that Delta is obligated to transfer to them in 2015 as part of the LGA slot deal.

IMHO, that's DL's problem. Delta agreed to transfer those frequencies. It was part of the package! Now, they come and want to erase the fact that they owe US Airways by trying to convince the DOT that they are the ones who should settle DL's debt.
US Airways is still a new entrant here, since their frequencies belong to United, so they are entitled to the first frequencies.

The fair allocation in my opinion would be:

2013: CLT-GRU and LAX-GRU
2014: ATL-GRU and PHL-GRU*

*In case of a successful merger, Delta would receive the award for JFK-GRU instead.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 225):
Would the DOT award allow US Airways to have a better slot time at GRU? If so, I can see that being a motivating factor.

No, that's strictly a matter between the airline and the Brazilian ANAC.

[Edited 2013-03-06 10:18:20]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: ocracoke
Posted 2013-03-06 12:08:32 and read 8621 times.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
In any case, it’s true that DL would still be disadvantaged in the number of frequencies it holds, but it will be tough to justify giving them more frequencies for that reason alone, if their proposed use brings little improved access or schedule to the market.

This reminds me very much of the first round of China selections a few years ago. Back then, 99% of the people on here and all the other airlines were against NW getting any new routes to China, because they already had many frequencies at the time. Not only that, but if NW wanted to start a new route, they could simply swap one of their NRT-China frequencies to start that new route. Why should NW get any additional frequencies when AA only had 1, or CO had none? The argument continued that it would be better for the DOT to spread the wealth, and NW can get additional frequencies when the other airlines have built up what they wanted. And that is how the DOT ruled.
Compare that to today. I don't hear 99% of the posters on here complaining about AA sitting on too many frequencies, and we should spread the wealth. Or that if AA really wanted to start LAX-GRU, they could do so today by moving one of their MIA frequencies.
I have nothing against AA trying. More power to them. Maybe they learned from DL, when DL "dared" to put in for 4 routes to HND. Put in for all you hope to get, and see what happens. If I were a AA sycophant, I too would be drooling over the possibilities of "owning" GRU. Just imagine having almost double the number slots that all your competitors have combined, joined to the most powerful airline in South America, and GRU would be all but theirs. No one else could come close to competing.

But I have to be realistic. As powerful as that would make AA, unfortunately, the last three major rulings by the DOT shows the DOT having a different mindset...that being that they are more interested in "spreading the wealth", and making sure one airline doesn't control too much of any market. As mentioned above, AA, DL, and CO were all given something to China before NW was considered. In the DL/US slot swap, the DOT forced the two companies to give away slots to other competitors, using that unique opportunity as a chance to inject some new competition. Finally, in the HND case, they spread the wealth by taking into account the JV between the different airlines, making sure each "airline" ended up with more or less the same to HND. (Even though the DOT claimed that it was also interested in spreading the wealth geographically, but after letting DL move their slot to SEA, we ended up with 3/4 of the slots on the Pacific side, and one from the east coast, so we see that that didn't really have that much preference).

For these reasons, I predict that AA only has a slight outside chance of getting the LAX route, and that only conditionally based on the outcome of the merger with US.

To say that DL shouldn't get a route because they haven't mentioned what plane they are going to use, or that US shouldn't get a route because PHL doesn't have a strong market, or had UA applied, they shouldn't get one because of Excuse ZZZ, is specious at best.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 226):
US Airways is still a new entrant here, since their frequencies belong to United, so they are entitled to the first frequencies.

US really isn't a "new" entrant. They have the slots now, and will have the slots from DL to cover the slots they have now. Even if they didn't get a single slot in this case proceeding, they will still be flying to GRU.
But I do agree US should get something, probably all they ask for, not because they are "entitled", but because I think the DOT wants to spread the wealth. US, with only 1 daily flight, cannot even begin to compete. (Again, with a caveat depending on what happens with their merger with AA).

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-03-06 12:15:54 and read 8607 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 226):
IMHO, that's DL's problem. Delta agreed to transfer those frequencies. It was part of the package! Now, they come and want to erase the fact that they owe US Airways by trying to convince the DOT that they are the ones who should settle DL's debt.
whDelta hasn't said anything even close to what you are saying

US Airways is still a new entrant here, since their frequencies belong to United, so they are entitled to the first frequencies.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-03-06 12:16:32 and read 8608 times.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 226):
IMHO, that's DL's problem. Delta agreed to transfer those frequencies. It was part of the package! Now, they come and want to erase the fact that they owe US Airways by trying to convince the DOT that they are the ones who should settle DL's debt.
Delta hasn't said anything even close to what you are saying

US Airways is still a new entrant here, since their frequencies belong to United, so they are entitled to the first frequencies.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-03-06 13:35:24 and read 8541 times.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 224):
lso, DL still uses the 767 on their GRU flights, despite having a fleet of various larger aircraft types that could be used to increase capacity if it were required. I don’t know what the problem was with the 744, but AA has had no problem in up-gauging all their flights to the 777 and 77W as required. Did DL try the 333 or 772?

Delta is using 764s on JFK/ATL-GRU, with 246 seats. DTW-GRU is still a 763. AA seat count on a 772 is 247 (until they drop F and go 3x4x3 in Y). Whether Delta will try a 333 when those are fitted with lie-flat seats remains to be seen.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: adamh8297
Posted 2013-03-06 15:35:23 and read 8421 times.

SFO and LAX are better served via MIA/DFW than BOS

[Edited 2013-03-06 15:36:45]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-03-06 15:43:10 and read 8413 times.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 231):
SFO and LAX are better served via MIA/DFW than BOS

SFO and LAX are better served via LAX  

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: texan
Posted 2013-03-06 17:02:37 and read 8312 times.

Quoting Nostromopilot (Reply 209):
Is there literally anywhere else left in Brazil destination-wise that AA could viably make work? I'm thinking maybe Fortaleza?

Cordoba, Argentina is still apparently in the making...... Could we see Cuzco some day as well? Also, do we know the timeframe for Georgetown and Paramaribo?

I wouldn't be surprised to see AA in FOR or BEL one day. AA flew to CUZ back in the 1990s at some point. Don't know that they have much to gain by returning in the near term.

Texan

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-03-06 17:35:07 and read 8279 times.

Quoting texan (Reply 233):
I wouldn't be surprised to see AA in FOR or BEL one day.

As the Brazilian economy, and the U.S.-Brazil market, continue to develop, I would not be surprised to see AA flying from MIA to BEL, FOR or NAT at some point.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: aacun
Posted 2013-03-06 17:51:45 and read 8239 times.

If you look at the route map put out by AA and US the day they announced the merger, there are certain routes and cities missing, but there is also a nonstop MIA-FOR showing.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-03-06 20:48:13 and read 8115 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 204):
Only twist that I can see with this however is Delta is using the same arguments that is successfully used on the Haneda route case, that its currently significantly disadvantaged in service frequency compared to competitors.
Delta repeatedly mentions that if the department indeed seeks to promote competition, it must award Delta the slots and help correct the imbalance where AA hold over double the number of GRU slots compared to it. Dl further states that the AA-US merger would also further cementing the AA dominance against competitors.

With this DOT i fully expect Delta to get at least ATL-GRU number two. Pretty much expect Both ATL/JFK awards.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 213):

A valid argument. It would be made even stronger if DL were flying it's largest aircraft out of JFK and ATL into GRU and the proposed departure times were significantly different for the flights.

They have been trying to get the 744 on ATL-GRU pretty much ever since the merger. They keep getting told no. A DL 764 is nearly the same seat count as a AA 772.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
chose to give away 25% of the GRU frequencies that had been awarded to them to US Airways as part of the LGA slot deal.

But the way the deal was worked, DL would only lose those frequencies at most for a year. (with open skies in 2015)

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
but we can assume that it will be similar to the existing ATL-GRU flight, rather than providing a new schedule option.

..... so? Delta should pull an AA and slot grab just for market share then?

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
The local ATL-GRU market is not large and it would likely be of greater public benefit to award US CLT-GRU instead

....... ah who cares about the largest hub in the world then right? If thats the case the DOT should look at how piss poor DL did on LAX-GRU and how KE is very likely doing the same. Oh....and the fact that CLT-GRU(and maybe PHL-GRU) are going to end up AA routes. Your really telling me that it is good for the market(not the AA fan boys) for AA to have 70+ frequencies to GRU and Delta to have 21(assuming they would get to keep the DTW-GRU frequencies)?

If you want AA, DL, US, UA, BA, QF, etc to get OMA-GRU just because its "your" airlines or "your" airport.....fine. Its a joke, but fine. But don't give me an this "its better for the market". AA getting any frequencies is not "better" for the market. US getting 7 or 14 new frequencies is not "better" for the market. (because they are going to end up with AA)

Or, give US/AA whatever they want, then once the merger comes.....Take stuff away. Works out just the same.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
Also, DL still uses the 767 on their GRU flights, despite having a fleet of various larger aircraft types that could be used to increase capacity if it were required.

.....The DL 764 has 1 less seat than an AA 772.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
333

not lie-flat. As said, they have been trying to get a 747 on ATL-GRU for at least the last two years. Once the 333 fleet gets done with its mods I expect to see a 333 doing ATL-GRU

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 223):
772?

the 777 fleet has the highest utilization of an widebody fleet at DL. They can't afford to send 4 aircraft to Brazil

Quoting ocracoke (Reply 227):
Or that if AA really wanted to start LAX-GRU, they could do so today by moving one of their MIA frequencies.

Ah logic.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 230):
Delta is using 764s on JFK/ATL-GRU, with 246 seats. DTW-GRU is still a 763. AA seat count on a 772 is 247 (until they drop F and go 3x4x3 in Y).

logic.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-03-06 22:24:58 and read 8003 times.

Any idea when the DOT will rule?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-03-07 16:51:23 and read 7760 times.

Delta has just filed a motion to compel additional information regarding the US Airways' frequency lease from United. It seems that they are suspicious about the terms of the agreement. They are thinking exactly what I mentioned almost three weeks ago:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 25):
Well, perhaps we could see that. DL going after a second daily ATL-GRU is another possibility. It's also possible that US Airways will apply for CLT-GRU frequencies in order to replace the ones leased from UA. We don't know the details of the contract, but it might include a provision in case of merger or acquisition, so that it would automatically be rescinded.

They would like the department to compel US Airways to file a copy of the lease in the docket. It's Delta's argument that US Airways cannot credibly claim that US and AA remain separate and independent entities if the frequencies have to be returned as the result of the merger consummation.
Furthermore, they request the department to require United to state its plans for incremental US-São Paulo flying.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-07 19:51:40 and read 7590 times.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 237):
Any idea when the DOT will rule?

Not much rush, considering the frequencies are not available till late October, but the DOT would like to give airlines atleast 90-120 days to market their flights.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 238):
Furthermore, they request the department to require United to state its plans for incremental US-São Paulo flying.
UA does not need to tell anyone anything - frankly they might not even know.

They don't have the slot at the moment so its a all a theoretical exercise.

Once they have the slot back, they can play the regular dormancy game as well before committing to something new.

[Edited 2013-03-07 19:52:17]

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Deltal1011man
Posted 2013-03-07 20:59:46 and read 7529 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 239):
UA does not need to tell anyone anything - frankly they might not even know.

I agree. UA should only have to speak up when they are about to lose the rights....or let them go.


I do think the US/UA/AA lease situation should be made more clear. (I also think then DL/US should have to put it in public what happens with the DTW frequencies should US be awarded CLT-GRU.)

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-18 16:07:02 and read 7226 times.

Responses are in today from both UA and US regarding Delta's pleadings.


In summary:

United
Basically wants to know why its getting dragged in this proceeding as it no obligation to provide information on how it may elect to use its unrestricted Brazil frequencies whenever they may revert to United from US Airways.
More so, the DOT did not require public disclosure of the lease agreement when it was approved and there certainly is no reason to do so now in response to Delta's fishing expedition.


US Airways
US Airways objects that Delta seeks to submit for public inspection and redebate already approved private lease agreement, nor should US Airways be required to speculate as to possible uses for the 2015 frequencies it will be exchanging with Delta. This route case if about frequencies available in the coming two years, not what carriers intend to do in 2015.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-22 10:23:52 and read 6618 times.

And Delta is back with its comments.


They continue to state that in order to have a fair and transparent route case, parties need access to all the relevant facts.

As such the department needs to clarify the status of all current and future frequencies which US Airways will have access to, along with any changes triggered by the proposed AA-US merger.

Additionally Delta believes it quite pertinent information to have on the record what United's intended use of the returned US Airways frequencies will be in order to best evaluate the route proposals in front of the department today.

Lastly Delta again believes it is not in the public interest to in any way increase the old or new AA's dominance in US - Brazil routes.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-03-27 10:24:34 and read 6010 times.

US Airways has countered the last Delta response with a suggestion the DOT to deny the Delta motion, and move ahead with conducting the frequency allocation process without sidetracking.

US Airways says it has no further comments and that all points have already been addressed in previous filings already.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-04-11 09:33:44 and read 5487 times.

Awful quiet.

DOT has not even responded to Delta's push for US and UA to reveal details of their lease and future Brazil plans.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: C010T3
Posted 2013-04-12 13:45:31 and read 5064 times.

The DOT has finally instituted a frequency proceeding. Delta's motion to compel has also been denied.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-04-12 15:42:41 and read 4906 times.

Yes DOT has issued order instituting a proceeding, while telling Delta the department does not see a need to compel the information proposed based on the circumstances presented.

Proceeding timelines are:

Petitions for Reconsideration = April 17, 2013
Answers to Petitions = April 22, 2013
Supplements/Amendments to Applications = April 24, 2013
Answers = May 3, 2013
Replies = May 14, 2013

=

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-04-12 16:58:55 and read 4788 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 194):
Delta:
7 x ATL-GRU - B763 (1st priority)
7 x JFK-GRU - no equipment mentioned (2nd priority)
Basically Delta simply seeks to go double daily on ATL & JFK services.

What are the odds (if even possible) DL would ask to move one of the frequencies to MIA-GRU?

Crazy I know, but DL has done crazier things.
Look at this way....
Positives:
DL has a decent FF base in MIA
DL recently opened a "latin HQ" in GRU..the only north american airline to do that. They even posted a VP there.
DL has made no secret that it salivates over the yields to MIA
DL now has a big sales team in Brazil
There is clearly room for a competitor to JJ and AA
Lots of VFR traffic

Negatives:
AA and TAM have control of the market
Brazilians are intensly loyal
Authorities might not allow / look at it favorablly
DL has tried long haul out of MIA and failed.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: B377
Posted 2013-04-13 01:30:11 and read 4529 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 247):
What are the odds (if even possible) DL would ask to move one of the frequencies to MIA-GRU?


The secret here is that DL brings nothing new to the table. They are asking for all the frequencies available in 2013, but only from routes that already have service. ie. ATL and JFK to GRU.

AA's request for 2013 is a new route .. LAX-GRU, and while it has been tried by DL in previous years resulting in failure, AA stands a better chance of obtaining approval as it is a "new" routing together with AA having a much better historical catchment area there.

US's request, is at the same time, is interesting. I see them getting what they want. CLT-GRU in 2013 and PHL-GRU in 2014.

The only route up for grabs would be AA's ORD-GRU over DL's DTW-GRU in 2014.

The final issue is what the DOT decides if the AA/US merger actually happens....

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-04-13 07:17:19 and read 4313 times.

Quoting B377 (Reply 248):
AA's request for 2013 is a new route .. LAX-GRU,

Its not new...DL had tried it and failed and Korean (i think still) operates it.
The DOT might allow DL on a hypothetical MIA-GRU if it increases competition from the current alliance monopoly.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: HeeseokKoo
Posted 2013-04-13 09:29:26 and read 4163 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 246):
Petitions for Reconsideration = April 17, 2013
Answers to Petitions = April 22, 2013
Supplements/Amendments to Applications = April 24, 2013
Answers = May 3, 2013
Replies = May 14, 2013

So when will we know DOT's (final or intermediate) choices?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-04-13 10:13:19 and read 4102 times.

AA has applied for LAX and ORD to GRU and US has applied for CTL and PHL to GRU, and although they are still two separate airlines they are expecting the DOT and other government agencies to sign off on their merger later this year in the fall. Will this pending merger have any effect on the Brazil slot allocation because by the end of this year if both AA and US get what they want then the DOT will have in effect given 4 slots to the new AA.

I don't think UA applied for anymore Brazil slots this time around because they already have slots that they (UA) are not using. DL on the other hand is effect by this because they have applied for more slots so should DL try to present AA/US as one airline (even though they are still separate) instead of trying to get UA and US to disclose the terms of their private lease agreement?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-04-13 10:31:16 and read 4063 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 251):
AA has applied for LAX and ORD to GRU and US has applied for CTL and PHL to GRU, and although they are still two separate airlines they are expecting the DOT and other government agencies to sign off on their merger later this year in the fall. Will this pending merger have any effect on the Brazil slot allocation because by the end of this year if both AA and US get what they want then the DOT will have in effect given 4 slots to the new AA.

I would assume the DOT can't rule under the assumption that AA and US are one airline, since they aren't at this time. With that said they could stipulate in order for the merger to be approved that the new airline be required to give up GRU slots. The new AA could feasibly offer up a set of MIA dedicated slots knowing full well any newcomer would struggle to make them work all the while expanding the number of gateways (presumably adding LAX).

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: miaami
Posted 2013-04-13 12:30:48 and read 3898 times.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 252):

I would assume the DOT can't rule under the assumption that AA and US are one airline, since they aren't at this time. With that said they could stipulate in order for the merger to be approved that the new airline be required to give up GRU slots. The new AA could feasibly offer up a set of MIA dedicated slots knowing full well any newcomer would struggle to make them work all the while expanding the number of gateways (presumably adding LAX).

That is possible. But if I remember correctly DL was awarded 2 US- HND slots back when HND opened up and they had a very large operation in Tokyo already (as a result of the NW merger.) Not sure if that is any type of precedent or not. The awarding of the AA LAX-GRU slot seems like a sure thing to me.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: nickofatlanta
Posted 2013-04-13 14:05:19 and read 3782 times.

Quoting miaami (Reply 253):

A bit different because while DL had and has a large operation in Tokyo, it lacks a JV partner on the Tokyo end unlike AA and UA. In this situation, the new AA will also be trying to get a JV down the track with TAM.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: toobz
Posted 2013-04-13 14:29:33 and read 3748 times.

Well DL has a hub there. They offer connections. Serves a purpose. AA?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-04-13 14:43:12 and read 3707 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 247):
What are the odds (if even possible) DL would ask to move one of the frequencies to MIA-GRU?

Crazy I know, but DL has done crazier things.
Look at this way....
Positives:
DL has a decent FF base in MIA
DL recently opened a "latin HQ" in GRU..the only north american airline to do that. They even posted a VP there.
DL has made no secret that it salivates over the yields to MIA
DL now has a big sales team in Brazil
There is clearly room for a competitor to JJ and AA
Lots of VFR traffic

These were similar arguments for teh DL MIA to LHR flight. we know how that turned out.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jayunited
Posted 2013-04-13 15:03:28 and read 3677 times.

Delta does not make many mistakes now days in fact they are probably one of the best managed well ran airlines in the U.S. However did they make a mistake when they decided to agree to give US a GRU slot as part of their overall slot swap with US? And if Delta did make a mistake how do they go about correcting it and what if anything can the DOT do to help them out?

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Polot
Posted 2013-04-13 15:07:22 and read 3671 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 257):
And if Delta did make a mistake how do they go about correcting it and what if anything can the DOT do to help them out?

The only thing DL can hope for is that they can find a loophole with the AA/US merger. The DOT is not going to help DL get that slot back, its not their problem that DL felt it was worth giving it up in exchange for LGA slots- that is something DL has to deal with themselves.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: nickofatlanta
Posted 2013-04-13 15:08:15 and read 3664 times.

Quoting toobz (Reply 255):

AA has a larger hub than DL through joint venture partner JL.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-04-13 15:17:39 and read 3660 times.

Quoting miaami (Reply 253):
That is possible. But if I remember correctly DL was awarded 2 US- HND slots back when HND opened up and they had a very large operation in Tokyo already (as a result of the NW merger.) Not sure if that is any type of precedent or not. The awarding of the AA LAX-GRU slot seems like a sure thing to me.

The LAX to GRU route was last flown nonstop by United about 7 years ago, the argument being that Asian passengers can connect over LAX. GRU to Asia have become heavily fished waters with connections over Europe and the 3 Gulf airlines all wanting their piece of the Brazilian pie. Singapore Airlines has even started flying there. Sao Paulo to Asia is a long way to make a profit, the Trans-African Atlantic route is becoming the new Kangaroo route.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Polot
Posted 2013-04-13 16:24:33 and read 3530 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 260):

The LAX to GRU route was last flown nonstop by United about 7 years ago, the argument being that Asian passengers can connect over LAX

DL briefly flew LAX-GRU 3x weekly about 3 or 4 years ago. It didn't last long.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2013-04-13 19:44:45 and read 3407 times.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 257):
And if Delta did make a mistake how do they go about correcting it and what if anything can the DOT do to help them out?

Its not the DOT's responsibility to help DL. DL traded away slots, now they are crying that others are going to use them effectively.

Topic: RE: DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-04-14 07:20:19 and read 3197 times.

As this thread become too long, we are opening a new one for the discussions regarding the DOT proceeding.

Link
US DOT Brazil Proceeding 2013/2014 (by LipeGIG Apr 14 2013 in Civil Aviation)



This one will be archived.
Any posts after this will be deleted for housekeeping purposes and as a potential result of system lag.


Regards,
Felipe
Forum Moderator


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