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Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-03-23 21:00:32 and read 31576 times.

Reuters is reporting a story from the Nikkei in Japan that JAL is looking to buy 20 A350s .

If true, it would be a massive slap in the face for Boeing; of course, it doesn't preclude future purchases of 787s and many carriers will be operating both types side by side, but it is hard not to think of this as a message to Boeing that it is hugely frustrated by the continuing 787 delays and the damage that they continue to cause.

Only last month, the CEO of JAL indicated that the airline should not continue to rely on one manufacturer.

Although JAL operated A300-600s inherited from JAS, these (if the purchase goes ahead) would be the first Airbuses directly acquired by the airline.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: mptpa
Posted 2013-03-23 21:06:32 and read 31570 times.

You beat me to this by a few minutes.. Here is the link...

Yahoo Finance

Well, we only have to wait a few months to know if this is true or this is another way to gain some allowance from Boeing....

MP

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: ktachiya
Posted 2013-03-23 21:07:32 and read 31551 times.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
Only last month, the CEO of JAL indicated that the airline should not continue to rely on one manufacturer.

True, but they need more than the B787 currently on order to replace their large fleet of B772 and B773 including domestic and international. Plus, they need something to replace the aging B763.

Pity though that they haven't thought about the A380 though. When it comes to premium cabins, nothing can be the space that the A380 provides.

I guess JL doesn't mind losing all its business pax to airlines like TG, KE, etc.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: PM
Posted 2013-03-23 22:18:56 and read 31131 times.

What neither of you mention is that it's the -1000 they are looking at.

"The Japanese carrier is considering using A350-1000 jets on flights to Europe and the United States to replace its Boeing 777 jets."

Now that is even more interesting.   

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-03-23 22:25:12 and read 31086 times.

Interesting... if true. And 'may buy' is not an order. Since JAL must be negotiating compensation with Boeing right now, I personally think anything could happen.

Lightsaber

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: baldwin471
Posted 2013-03-23 22:27:27 and read 31055 times.

Would love to see it happen. Always love airlines having more than one manufacturer in their fleets.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: PM
Posted 2013-03-23 22:43:34 and read 30968 times.

I should declare an interest as I am a big fan of the A350 and I have quite a soft spot for JAL, but I would love to see this come off. And, although it may be a bargaining ploy, I can as easily believe that a JAL order for A350s is a real possibility. JAL today is not the JAL of old and a mixed fleet of 787s (especially the smaller ones) and A350s (especially the biggest one) would hardly be eccentric.

Quoting ktachiya (Reply 2):
I guess JL doesn't mind losing all its business pax to airlines like TG, KE, etc.

Really? I guess they would mind very much and will try to prevent it happening.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: mariner
Posted 2013-03-23 23:32:18 and read 30673 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):
Interesting... if true. And 'may buy' is not an order. Since JAL must be negotiating compensation with Boeing right now, I personally think anything could happen.

Sure it could. And I have no idea if this is dinkum.

At the same time - and just to make the point - both Airbus and Boeing do know when they're being played, when someone is trying to pit one against the other for leverage.

Airbus has told at least one airline to take a hike when they thought they are being played and has sent out a huge warning sign to MOL at Ryanair - don't even try.

mariner

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-03-23 23:38:59 and read 30633 times.

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):
Airbus has told at least one airline to take a hike when they thought they are being played and has sent out a huge warning sign to MOL at Ryanair - don't even try.

Yes, but Airbus knows airlines are pretty cheesed off with Boeing at the moment; they have to take a risk; sure, the danger exists that airlines are just playing one off against the other, but while it is pretty absurd to expect FR to turn to the 320Neo, it's certainly not absurd to contemplate the A350 in JAL colours (though more pleasant to contemplate the A350 in JAL's old colours!).

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: JValjean
Posted 2013-03-24 00:03:49 and read 30492 times.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
it is hard not to think of this as a message to Boeing that it is hugely frustrated by the continuing 787 delays and the damage that they continue to cause.

The message has been sent for over four years now via direct communication at the highest levels. Given the fact that the Japanese governement and the "risk sharing" heavies have a monumental investment in the 787, as well as significant participation in other older Boeing Commercial programs, I seriously doubt the pendulum will swing very far in Airbus' favor where JAL is concerned.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: PM
Posted 2013-03-24 00:18:52 and read 30376 times.

Quoting JValjean (Reply 9):
I seriously doubt the pendulum will swing very far in Airbus' favor where JAL is concerned.
Quoting PM (Reply 6):
JAL today is not the JAL of old.

My guess is that the Board of JAL will buy what's best for JAL. And so they should.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: robffm2
Posted 2013-03-24 00:20:38 and read 30365 times.

Quoting JValjean (Reply 9):
The message has been sent for over four years now via direct communication at the highest levels. Given the fact that the Japanese governement and the "risk sharing" heavies have a monumental investment in the 787, as well as significant participation in other older Boeing Commercial programs, I seriously doubt the pendulum will swing very far in Airbus' favor where JAL is concerned.

What kind of direct leverage do the government and the other heavies have?

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Aaron747
Posted 2013-03-24 00:37:07 and read 30228 times.

Quoting robffm2 (Reply 11):
What kind of direct leverage do the government and the other heavies have?

Perhaps the mere fact that the Japanese government waived $7.3 billion in debt to save the company in 2010.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: sierra3tango
Posted 2013-03-24 00:41:05 and read 30190 times.

Quoting JValjean (Reply 9):
Given the fact that the Japanese governement and the "risk sharing" heavies have a monumental investment in the 787, as well as significant participation in other older Boeing Commercial programs, I seriously doubt the pendulum will swing very far in Airbus' favor where JAL is concerned.

But ANA did go with Rollers on their 787's so its not inconceivable that Airbus might get get a toe in the door

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-03-24 00:47:15 and read 30154 times.

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
Now that is even more interesting.

Also interesting is this:

Quote:
and is set to make a final decision on the purchase by around June

What would be happening "around June" time?   

While I personally see no reason JAL shouldn't buy A350s, for now I'll file this in the 'Believe it when I see it' pile.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: JValjean
Posted 2013-03-24 00:49:48 and read 30125 times.

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 13):
But ANA did go with Rollers on their 787's so its not inconceivable that Airbus might get get a toe in the door

They already have a toe in the door, whether they penetrate the market threshold any further is what seems doubtful to me. However, that doesn't mean Airbus shouldn't or wouldn't continue to give it the old college try.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: ADent
Posted 2013-03-24 01:21:29 and read 29939 times.

If I were JAL it would be tempting to take the titles off the rest of the 787 fleet, cancel the remaining orders, and go all A350.

Of course the A350 is a paper airplane and with Airbus' record on the A380 and A400 I wouldn't jump just yet.

Plus the millions lost on the existing fleet - though real 787s might fetch a good price used.

Still would be tempting though.

The smart thing would be to play this against Boeing and squeeze them hard for a good deal.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: 0A340
Posted 2013-03-24 01:43:19 and read 29780 times.

I wouldn't call 'paper airplane' an airplane that is months away from first flight!

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-03-24 01:48:12 and read 29746 times.

That would be cool if it goes through, turn up the heat some for B, it can only do good in the long run. Maybe the MDD board in Chicago gets the news one fine day? Time to shape up!

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: PM
Posted 2013-03-24 01:49:50 and read 29752 times.

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 13):
But ANA did go with Rollers on their 787's

There is quite a Japanese stake in the Trent family. (In the 1990s ANA were on the point of ordering Trent 800s for their 777s when BA ordered GE90s and that spooked them into switching to PW.   )

Quoting JValjean (Reply 15):
They already have a toe in the door.

Indeed. Airbus have just delivered their 100th plane to the Japanese market.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: zeke
Posted 2013-03-24 01:50:07 and read 29741 times.

Quoting JValjean (Reply 9):
Given the fact that the Japanese governement and the "risk sharing" heavies have a monumental investment in the 787, as well as significant participation in other older Boeing Commercial programs, I seriously doubt the pendulum will swing very far in Airbus' favor where JAL is concerned.

Japanese companies also supply parts for almost all Airbus models.

Quoting ADent (Reply 16):
If I were JAL it would be tempting to take the titles off the rest of the 787 fleet, cancel the remaining orders, and go all A350.

The A350-900 (800/1000 too far away) are a lot bigger than a 787-8, I do not see that happening.

Quoting ADent (Reply 16):

Of course the A350 is a paper airplane and with Airbus' record on the A380 and A400 I wouldn't jump just yet.

Have you been to the FAL in TLS to see the paper they are making the A350 from ?

What record do you refer to WRT to the A380/A400M ? Before you answer that, have a look at all new aircraft programs and see that delivering such technology is a challenge for anyone, even when almost "bottom less" budgets are thrown at them. Make an OBJECTIVE comparison, not fanboy flamebait.

Quoting ADent (Reply 16):
The smart thing would be to play this against Boeing and squeeze them hard for a good deal.

For what aircraft ? the current 777 is not competitive when put up again an A350 over 10-20 years, and then you have the 787-9/787-10, and 777X which are further away from flying than the A350-900.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 02:08:47 and read 29622 times.

People, please. JAL is looking for 777 replacements, this has nothing to do with the 787 problems.

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
My guess is that the Board of JAL will buy what's best for JAL. And so they should.

  

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: JValjean
Posted 2013-03-24 02:12:03 and read 29573 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 20):
Japanese companies also supply parts for almost all Airbus models.

True, but the overall financial investment by the government and the heavies in Boeing programs borders on being exponentially greater than what's the case in the foreseeable future with Airbus.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: mariner
Posted 2013-03-24 03:06:41 and read 28777 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 8):
sure, the danger exists that airlines are just playing one off against the other, but while it is pretty absurd to expect FR to turn to the 320Neo, it's certainly not absurd to contemplate the A350 in JAL colours

I don't think it is absurd. MOL started to try and play that game and Leahy slapped him down hard:

http://www.imakenews.com/tmcm/e_arti...001370641.cfm?x=bfhQHPr,bbQk4K1F,w

"Airbus snubs Ryanair over discounts

This week Ryanair said that it was in early talks with Boeing and Airbus about an order for 300-400 short-haul jets, one of the biggest purchases of new aircraft.

Michael O’Leary, Ryanair chief executive and key senior colleagues have visited Airbus headquarters in Toulouse to outline their plans, but the European group, the commercial aircraft division of EADS, has told the airline that it is not interested at the prices Ryanair is seeking.

John Leahy, Airbus’s chief commercial officer, said: “We are not in discussions with Ryanair about aircraft. That is on the record. We don’t have plans to enter a sales campaign with Ryanair, which would be very expensive and very time consuming."


I think Airbus is likely to welcome any overtures from JAL, but won't be played for a sucker. On the other hand, I take the JAL CEO at face value:

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
Only last month, the CEO of JAL indicated that the airline should not continue to rely on one manufacturer.

And I think he's right, whether this particular deal goes ahead or not.

mariner

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: AirCanadaA330
Posted 2013-03-24 08:37:16 and read 24116 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
While I personally see no reason JAL shouldn't buy A350s, for now I'll file this in the 'Believe it when I see it' pile

I would agree with you. Although it would be awesome to see the A350 flying with JAL.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 21):
People, please. JAL is looking for 777 replacements, this has nothing to do with the 787 problems.

True...Im surprised they are not going to wait to see what the 777X has to offer first....then again this is not a done deal.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: flybyguy
Posted 2013-03-24 08:44:05 and read 24840 times.

Boeing should be shopping for new marketing and sales people... this is just embarrassing. While they're at it, the Boeing shareholders should clean house and fire the board and everyone else that signed off on the 787 and the NEO as they are now. I really do think that this spate of poached Boeing customers is really a vote of "no confidence" on Boeing products and the Boeing ability to provide good products and services.

Leahy is wrapping rings around Boeing and poaching just about every Boeing stalwart. I've heard of Airbus's legendary sales tactics to get reluctant operators to purchase Airbus equipment. Boeing's series of blunders starting with the 787 and ending with 737Max (a plane that's probably inferior to the A32XNEO delivered 2 years after the NEO) is just making it easier for Leahy to retire as the best salesman in commercial aviation history.

Next thing we'll hear is that WN has ordered A320/A321NEOs.... I'm sure then shareholders will begin

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-24 09:01:52 and read 24605 times.

The 787-9 should be able to serve as a domestic and international 777-200 and 777-200ER replacement for JL just as it will for NH. As such, that JL may only be looking at the A350-1000 for a 777-300 and 777-300ER replacement does pass the common sense test.

Quoting ktachiya (Reply 2):
Pity though that they haven't thought about the A380 though. When it comes to premium cabins, nothing can be the space that the A380 provides.

I guess JL doesn't mind losing all its business pax to airlines like TG, KE, etc.


Like NH, JL chooses to fly a low-density, high-comfort configuration for their international flights. They choose to cater to high-yield passengers rather than low-yield and configure their aircraft appropriately.

And because of this, the 777X could actually be a poor choice for JL and NH. They do not need the capacity of the 777-9X anymore than they do the capacity of the 747-8 or the A380-800. And while the 777-8X would be properly-sized for them in terms of capacity, the larger wing-span could be a pain for them at NRT and HND.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 09:20:19 and read 24483 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
The 787-9 should be able to serve as a domestic and international 777-200 and 777-200ER replacement for JL just as it will for NH. As such, that JL may only be looking at the A350-1000 for a 777-300 and 777-300ER replacement does pass the common sense test.

I agree on the international routes but some of their domestic 777-200 aircraft have 350 and 390 seats, I doubt you can fill the 787-9 comfortable with the same amout of seats.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: JValjean
Posted 2013-03-24 09:34:36 and read 24194 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 29):
I can't remembe any other aircraft that has had such delays.

Concorde would be close, it packed a lot of "new technology" as well.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-24 09:36:11 and read 24171 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 21):
People, please. JAL is looking for 777 replacements, this has nothing to do with the 787 problems.

I think it is more than that. JAL has never bought Airbus, so this is defnitely a deliberate step to consider a non-Boeing option for the 777 replacement. Only the most naive would believe, after all of the comments and hints JAL has been dropping about the risks of its sole-supplier relationship with Boeing since the 787 incident in BOS, that the 787 problems did not factor in this decision.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: RubberJungle
Posted 2013-03-24 09:51:31 and read 23920 times.

Bit old this news...Airline Business carried a JAL interview a month ago. An extract:



JAL's Boeing 767s are being replaced with Boeing 787s, and its chairman Masaru Onishi says that the airline's "main interest now" is to look at replacements for the older 777s that will begin to be retired from 2016.

Options include more 777-300ERs, its proposed successor that has been dubbed the 777-X, and new generation aircraft such as the proposed 787-10 and the Airbus A350, Onishi says in an interview with Flightglobal publication Airline Business.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...rcraft-for-777-replacement-382514/

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: multimark
Posted 2013-03-24 10:05:57 and read 23545 times.

Good news. It is high time Japanese carriers broke their Boeing habit. I guess it took the 787 to do it.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: AirCanadaA330
Posted 2013-03-24 10:07:30 and read 23509 times.

Quoting multimark (Reply 34):
I guess it took the 787 to do it.

I dont think that the 787 had anything to do with this.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: AirbusA370
Posted 2013-03-24 10:32:28 and read 22989 times.

Quoting AirCanadaA330 (Reply 35):
I dont think that the 787 had anything to do with this.

If they'd still consider Boeing as a possible candidate, wouldn't they wait for a 777X offer?

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-24 10:50:53 and read 22699 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 28):
I agree on the international routes but some of their domestic 777-200 aircraft have 350 and 390 seats, I doubt you can fill the 787-9 comfortable with the same amout of seats.

NH have stated they plan to operate their domestic 787-9s with around 400 seats. They can fit the same number of rows of Premium Class and Economy Class seats as on their domestic 777-200s, losing one seat per row per Economy. But honestly, losing 30-ish seats is probably not a bad thing as it should increase yields (and perhaps even load factors).

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: PRAirbus
Posted 2013-03-24 11:02:21 and read 22467 times.

Good lesson for BOEING, bravo for AIRBUS! It would be nice to see a JAL A350!  

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: sierra3tango
Posted 2013-03-24 11:10:56 and read 22309 times.

Quoting JValjean (Reply 31):
Concorde would be close, it packed a lot of "new technology" as well.
Quoting kaitak (Reply 29):
Quoting btblue (Reply 27):
In July it will be 6 years since the first 787 was rolled out...

Its getting on for a Comet type time scale, without the losses & that was newer technology (in those days) by far

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: motorhussy
Posted 2013-03-24 11:16:52 and read 22257 times.

Excluding JL's 77W fleet, the airline has 33 777's comprising 14 x -200's, 11 x -200ER's and 7 x -300's that may need replacing at some time soon, so the initial 20 aircraft RFP and order would include significant options it would appear. The A350-900 and -1000 would both be legitimate options presumably.

Regards
MH

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: GDB
Posted 2013-03-24 11:25:05 and read 22115 times.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
Only last month, the CEO of JAL indicated that the airline should not continue to rely on one manufacturer.

Considering the very understated way of speaking in Japanese culture, that might be more of an intention than it sounds to Western ears

Quoting JValjean (Reply 31):
Concorde would be close, it packed a lot of "new technology" as well.

More, 7 years. But then it flew at over twice the speed of any other airliner, at nearly twice the height. The first 'Prototype' aircraft were really technology demonstrators. In the US they'd have had an 'X' prefix.
And yes, a LOT of new technology too.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Hamlet69
Posted 2013-03-24 11:30:36 and read 22012 times.

Quoting btblue (Reply 27):
In July it will be 6 years since the first 787 was rolled out... and the thing still isn't flying...
Quoting kaitak (Reply 29):
Hadn't realised that; when you put it like this, it's clear that this has been a disaster;

It's true. . . as long as you WILLINGLY choose to ignore that it flew regular revenue service for over a year before the grounding. *shrug*

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 33):
chairman Masaru Onishi says that the airline's "main interest now" is to look at replacements for the older 777s that will begin to be retired from 2016.

We'll see if they stick to that timetable. If they do, then it HAS to be more 777's or 787's. The A350 (nor 777X) will be available to JAL that soon.


Regards,

Hamlet69

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-03-24 11:41:12 and read 21769 times.

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
What neither of you mention is that it's the -1000 they are looking at.

"The Japanese carrier is considering using A350-1000 jets on flights to Europe and the United States to replace its Boeing 777 jets."

Now that is even more interesting.   

It sure is very interesting. JAL has a good chance to become an Airbus customer, and Airbus has a good chance to become a supplier to JAL again.

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
I should declare an interest as I am a big fan of the A350 and I have quite a soft spot for JAL, but I would love to see this come off.

The same goes for me as well.  .

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
While I personally see no reason JAL shouldn't buy A350s, for now I'll file this in the 'Believe it when I see it' pile.

True, but these reports seem to be quite serious. Still, they could decide otherwise and remain a very loyal Boeing customer. That has worked out for them very well over all these years.

Quoting ADent (Reply 16):
Of course the A350 is a paper airplane

Which will fly within a couple of months. So much for a paper airplane.  .

Quoting zeke (Reply 20):
Japanese companies also supply parts for almost all Airbus models.

They sure do.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 21):
People, please. JAL is looking for 777 replacements, this has nothing to do with the 787 problems.

Well, if they are unhappy with (some parts) of Boeing on the B787, that might make a move to Airbus more appealing.

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 38):
It would be nice to see a JAL A350!

It sure would. But until there is something more official, I am not holding my breath.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: pnwtraveler
Posted 2013-03-24 11:42:01 and read 21781 times.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 42):
It's true. . . as long as you WILLINGLY choose to ignore that it flew regular revenue service for over a year before the grounding. *shrug*

Hamlet please don't interrupt the hyberbole and overstatement with facts please  .

For any business to go totally over for one supplier vs. buying some from multiple suppliers, there needs to be massively bigger benefits to offset the risk. Now that is more true for larger scale consumables where a single invoice vs. multiple regular invoices, steeper discounts, and fewer people needing to interact with multiple suppliers. That really lessens though when you are talking giant sticker items like an aircraft because it isn't like you are getting multiple invoices every week (unless you are EK of course). With aircraft it would have to come down to commonality of types, fewer different parts to stock (many are just-in-time anyways) and a much bigger discount for exclusivity. To take a compromise in the ultimate mission profile in order to just buy from one aircraft manufacturer, I personally think just doesn't make sense. So it has to have a decent bottom line discount.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-03-24 11:43:24 and read 21723 times.

Quoting AirCanadaA330 (Reply 35):
I dont think that the 787 had anything to do with this.

I doubt anyone at NH or JL headquarters want to be launch customer for any new Boeing types any time soon.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 42):
Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 33):
chairman Masaru Onishi says that the airline's "main interest now" is to look at replacements for the older 777s that will begin to be retired from 2016.

We'll see if they stick to that timetable. If they do, then it HAS to be more 777's or 787's. The A350 (nor 777X) will be available to JAL that soon.

For a customer like JL spurning its old supplier I am sure A can find a few early delivery slots for 2016!

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 11:46:12 and read 21622 times.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 45):
For a customer like JL spurning its old supplier I am sure A can find a few early delivery slots for 2016!

But EIS of the A350-1000 is 2017, unless JAL know something more.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: BlueShamu330s
Posted 2013-03-24 11:46:19 and read 21652 times.

I did state a few weeks ago that the comments from JAL's Chairman was the Japanese way of politely expressing extreme displeasure at Boeing and I suggested this would open the door for the A350 in Japan.

Now we read this report that the A350 is indeed being considered.

If I might go out on a limb again, I'm prepared to go down on record as saying this is an indicator, not that JAL are considering the A350, but that the decision has already been made; the rest of the process is semantics and the way they do things.

Rgds

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-03-24 11:51:36 and read 21536 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
But EIS of the A350-1000 is 2017, unless JAL know something more.

Some A359s till the A35J shows up?

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-24 11:51:57 and read 21650 times.

Quoting BlueShamu330s (Reply 47):
If I might go out on a limb again, I'm prepared to go down on record as saying this is an indicator, not that JAL are considering the A350, but that the decision has already been made; the rest of the process is semantics and the way they do things.

A JL A350-1000 order may very well happen, but we probably should not forget that a few years back it was "confirmed" that ANA had placed an order for five A380-800s...



Quoting trex8 (Reply 48):
Some A359s till the A35J shows up?

I very much doubt that Airbus has any 2016 A350-900 delivery positions available.

[Edited 2013-03-24 11:52:57]

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 11:52:44 and read 21559 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
NH have stated they plan to operate their domestic 787-9s with around 400 seats. They can fit the same number of rows of Premium Class and Economy Class seats as on their domestic 777-200s, losing one seat per row per Economy. But honestly, losing 30-ish seats is probably not a bad thing as it should increase yields (and perhaps even load factors).

Really, 400 seats? Impressive, I did not know that.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 43):
It sure would. But until there is something more official, I am not holding my breath.

A final decision is expected by the end of June, this would be a nice Bourget surprise.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 11:57:08 and read 21445 times.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 48):
Some A359s till the A35J shows up?

I would be surprised if Airbus has any delivery slots in 2016 left.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: atnight
Posted 2013-03-24 12:08:58 and read 21331 times.

I for one hope Jal buys the A350, as it will be a fine aircraft. And it also teaches Boeing that over promising and underdelivery has a payback. This situation just makes me hate the way that Boeing dealt with the 787 and its issues. I know the aircraft itself will be fine eventually, but Boeing did not do things right and they don't seem to realize the consequences just yet. Just like many here are so sided by their love affair to Boeing, inspite the 787 being grounded for months now (and having a mediocre reliability when was in service). It is sad that some here still want to be over positive about the project. People, the project is still a nightmare. We are talking over a decade since the program started and still the aircraft is not doing what is supposed to do. I still have yet to hear Boeing acknowledge their serious misjudgment in the project. It still seems that since they have other excellent aircraft, they dont really have to appologise for anything. Seriously, the Japanese airlines should buy Airbus, and besides getting an excellent aircraft, it show Boeing that loyalty cannot be blind.

The biggest thing Boeing will have a challenge with will be the trust that airlines will have in their future clean-sheet projects. Maybe that's why they are only doing warm up versions of what they already do.

Anyways, hope this does materialize for Airbus.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-24 12:42:46 and read 20767 times.

Color me confused to how ordering a model of the A350 that there is no direct 787 equivalent to while still keeping their 45 787 orders and 18 options is "teaching Boeing a lesson" about their handling of the 787 program...

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-24 12:51:43 and read 20603 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 54):
Color me confused to how ordering a model of the A350 that there is no direct 787 equivalent to while still keeping their 45 787 orders and 18 options is "teaching Boeing a lesson" about their handling of the 787 program...

1. JAL has never bought an Airbus aircraft

2. Comments from JAL's chairman about the risk of a sole supplier relationship with Boeing emerged after tha 787 grounding.

3. They have now indicated they are leaning towards the A350 though Boeing has alternatives (777-300ER and the 777X)

I think that only the most biased, blinded Boeing supporter would see this as anything other than at least partly, if not wholly, a fallout of the 787 grounding.

[Edited 2013-03-24 13:03:52]

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 12:57:04 and read 20380 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 32):
I think it is more than that. JAL has never bought Airbus, so this is defnitely a deliberate step to consider a non-Boeing option for the 777 replacement. Only the most naive would believe, after all of the comments and hints JAL has been dropping about the risks of its sole-supplier relationship with Boeing since the 787 incident in BOS, that the 787 problems did not factor in this decision.
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 43):
Well, if they are unhappy with (some parts) of Boeing on the B787, that might make a move to Airbus more appealing.

Perhaps the 787 problems are convincing JAL to not depend on 1 aircraft manufacter now more than ever, but I expect they order the A350 because it fits the best to their needs in the first place.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 13:08:17 and read 20148 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 52):
3. They have now indicated they are leaning towards the A350 though Boeing has alternatives (777-300ER and the 777X)

We don't know that. I think the 777X is too big for JAL so they can only choose between the 77W and the A35J. The A35J will have a lower fuel burn so the A35J is the only logical outcome (unless they need the new frames before 2017).

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-24 13:15:03 and read 19996 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 54):
We don't know that. I think the 777X is too big for JAL so they can only choose between the 77W and the A35J. The A35J will have a lower fuel burn so the A35J is the only logical outcome (unless they need the new frames before 2017).

Yes, but we do know that this kind of logical reasoning did not prevent them from staying Boeing only until now.

For instance it can be argued that the A330 might have been a better for for JAL than the 777, and lower CASM than the 767, on many of its routes, but JAL stayed with Boeing until now..

[Edited 2013-03-24 13:16:17]

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-03-24 13:15:43 and read 20002 times.

I would be surprised if JL did not make their decisions just according to economical reasons. The company was nearly bankrupt - no way they play games and buy from one manufacturer only just because they always did.
No way, too, they buy Airbus just because they are pissed of 787.

Whether or not JL is going to buy from Airbus, it will be the most suitable plane for their needs.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-24 13:19:33 and read 19963 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 52):
2. Comments from JAL's chairman about the risk of a sole supplier relationship with Boeing emerged after tha 787 grounding.

And yet they have generally favored a single supplier (be it Douglas or Boeing).



Quoting sankaps (Reply 52):
3. They have now indicated they are leaning towards the A350 though Boeing has alternatives (777-300ER and the 777X)

They are "considering" it, per reports. Much as we have reports that easyJet is "considering" buying the 737 MAX even though they are an all-Airbus operator with a huge A320 fleet and Airbus has an alternative in the A320neo.



Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 54):
I think the 777X is too big for JAL so they can only choose between the 77W and the A35J. The A35J will have a lower fuel burn so the A35J is the only logical outcome (unless they need the new frames before 2017).


Considering the low-density configuration JL and NH have on their 777-300ERs, their DOWs might be low enough on a 787-10 that the plane would have sufficient range to serve as a 777-300ER replacement for them for long-haul missions to the Americas and Europe.

[Edited 2013-03-24 13:34:58]

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 13:24:01 and read 19808 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 55):
Yes, but we do know that this kind of logical reasoning did not prevent them from staying Boeing only until now.

For instance it can be argued that the A330 might have been a better for for JAL than the 777, and lower CASM than the 767, on many of its routes, but JAL stayed with Boeing until now..

That is true but we are living in a different time now. Like said in reply #53, it is possible that the 787 issues are convincing JAL now more than ever to not depend on 1 aircraft manufacturer but I doubt that this is the main reason to buy the A350. In these financial times I'm convinced they will buy the most suitable plane for their needs.

Topic: Report:JAL looking to buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 13:28:06 and read 19774 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
A JL A350-1000 order may very well happen, but we probably should not forget that a few years back it was "confirmed" that ANA had placed an order for five A380-800s...

With NH and JL ditching the large planes it was very unrealistic to believe they would buy the A380. The A350 is a more realistic because it is a smaller plane.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: KPDX
Posted 2013-03-24 14:36:57 and read 18638 times.

People are sure betting the house that the A350 will have absolutely no problems...   

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-24 14:46:25 and read 18461 times.

Nobody is claiming that. Shit could hit the A350 too; Boeing faced many problems after first flight.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-03-24 15:07:48 and read 18143 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):
Quoting sankaps (Reply 52):
2. Comments from JAL's chairman about the risk of a sole supplier relationship with Boeing emerged after tha 787 grounding.

And yet they have generally favored a single supplier (be it Douglas or Boeing).

They also went bankrupt during those times too. Maybe its time to change SOP.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: TheRedBaron
Posted 2013-03-24 15:25:53 and read 17930 times.

Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 56):
I would be surprised if JL did not make their decisions just according to economical reasons. The company was nearly bankrupt - no way they play games and buy from one manufacturer only just because they always did.
No way, too, they buy Airbus just because they are pissed of 787.

Whether or not JL is going to buy from Airbus, it will be the most suitable plane for their needs.

I agree a company that has been saved by billions and has fierce competition MUST choose the perfect airplane for it business model. Feelings, loyalty or tradition will be damned.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):
And yet they have generally favored a single supplier (be it Douglas or Boeing).

Even the Titanic Sank, so never say never.

Quoting KPDX (Reply 60):
People are sure betting the house that the A350 will have absolutely no problems...   

I can bet that Airbus will play dead until the day the A350 flies, if they do that in time or with a minimum delay (less than 6 months), they will make a huge deal of their expertise vis a vis Boeing, If they fail well they can say that its the industry norm to have delays due to super advanced technology, so without mentioning Boeing they will use it as leverage.
It reminds me of the old saying, "never kick a man unless he is down on the floor", typical PR speak.

Now if they announce a A350 order on June it will send a message not only to Boeing, but to the suppliers.

Best regards
TRB

[Edited 2013-03-25 04:59:05 by ManuCH]

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Alpage
Posted 2013-03-24 16:09:59 and read 17263 times.

Probably they will announce it at the Paris Air Show...in June.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: motorhussy
Posted 2013-03-24 16:29:53 and read 17045 times.

So a purchase of 20 x next generation aircraft to (eventually) replace their 33 x 777-200's, -200ER's and -300's. How many options will be included in this order?

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-24 16:59:48 and read 16736 times.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 65):
So a purchase of 20 x next generation aircraft to (eventually) replace their 33 x 777-200's, -200ER's and -300's. How many options will be included in this order?

Reports say that JL is looking only at the A350-1000 and 20 frames would be sufficient to replace their 13 777-300ERs and 7 777-300s.

They have sufficient 787-8 and 787-9 orders and options to more than cover the replacement of their entire 767-300, 767-300ER, 777-200 and 777-200ER fleets plus allow for a fair bit of expansion.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-24 18:18:51 and read 15824 times.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
If true, it would be a massive slap in the face for Boeing

Boeing always can reciprocate by reducing Japanese 787 content from 35%.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-03-24 18:41:30 and read 15592 times.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
If true, it would be a massive slap in the face for Boeing

Boeing has been slapped harder, so has Airbus. I like when customers do this though as it keeps the OEMs on their toes. I still don't think this is going to happen as the Japanese gvt. still has cozy ties to JL and to a lesser extent NH.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-03-24 20:26:47 and read 14623 times.

I'm not sure if this is such a good idea. The Boeing 777-300ER is a well-proven airliner that can fly from NRT/KIX to most of its major international destinations non-stop and if JL needs the long-range capacity, the 77W would be delivered a lot earlier than the A350XWB-1000.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Asiaflyer
Posted 2013-03-24 20:37:35 and read 14566 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 71):
I'm not sure if this is such a good idea. The Boeing 777-300ER is a well-proven airliner that can fly from NRT/KIX to most of its major international destinations non-stop and if JL needs the long-range capacity, the 77W would be delivered a lot earlier than the A350XWB-1000.


The A350-1000 can do the same but at 20% less cost. How can that be a bad idea?
If this is for 77W replacement, JL do not need them yet anyway.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: United Airline
Posted 2013-03-24 20:56:56 and read 14359 times.

Wonder if NH and JL will buy the B 747-8 or the A380 eventually?

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-03-24 21:51:34 and read 14152 times.

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 35):
Good lesson for BOEING, bravo for AIRBUS!
Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 63):
That is why I refrain into entering the 787 fallout saga, I was here on the A380 will never fly A vs B war, and let me tell you A net is still a 2 trench war zone

Smart move Baron........ I usually take your position, but this once I have to say something I never have before, here we go!

Really? Yet another A vs B thread, AGAIN? Doesn't anyone else get tired of these things? BOTH companies make safe and comfortable aircraft that operate worldwide with a variety of carriers on a myriad of routes, Enough said..... Sigh.

The 787 issue comes down to, new technology which almost always has some level of teething needed before things go perfectly, it sucks for all involved, (airlines, manufacturer and passengers) the 787 will still prove to be a game changer and once this issue is resolved, the 787 will start making routine flights that criss cross the planet, we will all go back to flying them. Not Unlike the DC-10 after the AA Chicago disaster, people will fly that plane again safely for many years.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-03-24 22:13:15 and read 14089 times.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 73):
Wonder if NH and JL will buy the B 747-8 or the A380 eventually?

That would be a big mistake. One of JAL's major problems that led to their bankruptcy was having far too many 747s that they couldn't fill except with low-yield leisure traffic.

They're much better off with smaller aircraft operating at higher yields, especially with the stagnant Japanese economy and rapidly-aging and declining population. By 2050 or so, around 40% of the Japanese population will be over 65 years of age. The population has been dropping every year for the past 6 years due to a very low birth rate.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: zeke
Posted 2013-03-25 00:59:25 and read 13581 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 48):
I would be surprised if Airbus has any delivery slots in 2016 left.

My understanding is that the slots are based on a fairly pessimistic ramp up, if that turns out even close to the A330, they should have more available. Also I am not sure if all the lease aircraft have been placed.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-25 01:44:20 and read 13294 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 66):
Boeing always can reciprocate by reducing Japanese 787 content from 35%.

Yes, and risk creating even more risk and unknowns by replacing these suppliers, who have come up the learning curve on the 787 with Boeing, with new suppliers and bringing them up to speed on the 787.

Makes a lot of sense, it does.  

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-03-25 01:47:18 and read 13308 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 73):
Really? Yet another A vs B thread, AGAIN? Doesn't anyone else get tired of these things? BOTH companies make safe and comfortable aircraft that operate worldwide with a variety of carriers on a myriad of routes, Enough said..... Sigh.

   This could have been an interesting thread about JAL buying Airbus aircraft. Instead, this thread has turned into another A vs B thread   

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 74):
They're much better off with smaller aircraft operating at higher yields, especially with the stagnant Japanese economy and rapidly-aging and declining population. By 2050 or so, around 40% of the Japanese population will be over 65 years of age. The population has been dropping every year for the past 6 years due to a very low birth rate.

  

Quoting zeke (Reply 75):
My understanding is that the slots are based on a fairly pessimistic ramp up, if that turns out even close to the A330, they should have more available. Also I am not sure if all the lease aircraft have been placed.

This is new for me, interesting.

[Edited 2013-03-25 01:51:24]

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: JValjean
Posted 2013-03-25 02:07:55 and read 13182 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 77):
Quoting zeke (Reply 75):My understanding is that the slots are based on a fairly pessimistic ramp up, if that turns out even close to the A330, they should have more available. Also I am not sure if all the lease aircraft have been placed.

This is new for me, interesting.[

Some posters consistently see nothing but moonlight & roses where their preferred OEM is concerned.  

Personally I don't see where what happened on the A330 program would have much predictive value where the A350 is concerned, since the the A350 introduces wholesale changes to the production scheme and industrial process for Airbus which wasn't the case with the A330.

[Edited 2013-03-25 02:17:54]

[Edited 2013-03-25 02:21:20]

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-03-25 02:14:38 and read 13244 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 56):
Quoting sankaps (Reply 52):
"2. Comments from JAL's chairman about the risk of a sole supplier relationship with Boeing emerged after tha 787 grounding."
And yet they have generally favored a single supplier (be it Douglas or Boeing).

Not since Kazuo Inamori - who made those comments - took the helm. He did so in January 2010, and since then, JAL has only placed two top-up orders (for a single 737-800 in August 2010, and for 10 additional 787 in January 2012). The 777-successor decision is the first all-new RFP JAL have issued since Inamori took over.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 56):

Quoting sankaps (Reply 52):
"3. They have now indicated they are leaning towards the A350 though Boeing has alternatives (777-300ER and the 777X)"

They are "considering" it, per reports. Much as we have reports that easyJet is "considering" buying the 737 MAX even though they are an all-Airbus operator with a huge A320 fleet and Airbus has an alternative in the A320neo.

I think EasyJet is not a good comparison here, to be honest. They were an all-Boeing operator, then switched to all-Airbus. So they clearly don't have much of an allegiance with either operator, and it's quite conceivable for them to switch back to all-Boeing if the deal suits them.
JAL is a completely different story.

Quoting BlueShamu330s (Reply 44):
If I might go out on a limb again, I'm prepared to go down on record as saying this is an indicator, not that JAL are considering the A350, but that the decision has already been made; the rest of the process is semantics and the way they do things.

While I still place a JL order for A350s on the "Believe it when I see it" stack (just like I did with the BA A380 order), I also feel you may be on to something there.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-03-25 03:03:40 and read 13050 times.

This is a clear message to Boeing from JL that they're clearly PISSED about the 787. My contacts have been saying that this deal has been in the works for some time, given the delays.


JL clearly doesn't trust the new 777X model as a 772 replacement. Or even 77W replacement. I wonder what B is gonna do here.........

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-03-25 05:15:54 and read 12491 times.

Quoting AirCanadaA330 (Reply 32):
I dont think that the 787 had anything to do with this.

I think it has SOMETHING to do with it.

I think it's taken the resources away from Boeing to do a 777X in a timely fashion. I'm not just talking about the people who've been drawn into the battery fix, I'm talking about the people who would have been working on something else had 787 tracked anything near to schedule. It's had major issues crop up at every stage of development (and even post-development) and that has to cause chaos on other programs.

I think it's clear that the battery incident has damaged Boeing's reputation, and the way they're handling it now, asking the public to trust the same entity that said these events would not happen for millions of flight hours now saying that it's okay to let them happen and trust we haven't fouled that up too, isn't helping.

So we have a situation where what would be as close to an automatic Boeing order as possible potentially going to Airbus because Boeing doesn't have a competing product ready in the required time frame and IMHO because of a damaged reputation. Not sure why this is controversial.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-25 06:23:27 and read 12181 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 79):
So we have a situation where what would be as close to an automatic Boeing order as possible potentially going to Airbus because Boeing doesn't have a competing product ready in the required time frame and IMHO because of a damaged reputation. Not sure why this is controversial.

I fully agree. It is controversial only to those still deep in denial about the reality of the seriousness and impact of Boeing's 787 problems.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: SKAirbus
Posted 2013-03-25 06:35:51 and read 12111 times.

I agree with some posters above that is quite sensible for some airlines to have more than one manufactuer in their fleet.

It prevents any future incident similar to the 787 from having such a huge impact. Just imagine if a major problem with the 777 was noticed and lead to a world wide grounding (highly unlikely). The 777 is the mainstay of the JAL fleet and as such the airline would be more than just severely impacted. Having a healthy mix is great security and also helps to secure good terms and prices on equipment.

I am pretty sure BA will order some A350s in order to diversify its longhaul fleet a bit more whilst still focussing it around 3 types.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-25 06:57:38 and read 12019 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 77):
I think EasyJet is not a good comparison here, to be honest.
Quoting sankaps (Reply 80):
I fully agree. It is controversial only to those still deep in denial about the reality of the seriousness and impact of Boeing's 787 problems.

It has nothing to do with denial. It has everything to do with common sense.

The argument is that JL is so displeased with Boeing over the 787 that they are going to place an order for the A350-1000 as a punitive action against Boeing to express that displeasure. So in order to spite Boeing, they're going to add a new model and family to their fleet that they have to create an entire support infrastructure for (simulators, maintenance, etc.). And unless they go Power by the Hour with Rolls, they'll also have to add an entirely new support infrastructure for that, as well, as I believe JL is a GE customer.

That's a fair bit of cash for a company just out of bankruptcy reorganization to spend just to spite a supplier - especially when you can squeeze that supplier for concessions.


JL has been looking at the A350 since at least February 2008. At the time, they went on record as noting that they felt "it was a very strong candidate" for their future fleet.

JL has 7 777-300s and 13 777-300ERs in need of replacement. There is no directly equivalent 787 model (unless Boeing launches a 75m 787-11X) and if you believe Airbus, the A350-1000 will be 25% more efficient than the 777-300ER and probably as good against the 777-300. The A350-1000 is also similar in size to the international 777-300ER fleet and while it will give up some Economy seats to the 777-300, that's likely not a bad thing.

The 777-9 is a bit larger than the 777-300ER and the 777-8 is a fair bit smaller than the 777-300ER. It also may have a 71m wingspan that could affect how it can integrate with domestic and international airports JL operates out of while the A350-1000 has the same wingspan as the 773/77W. The 777-9's best chance at matching the long-haul economics of the A350-1000 is in a high-capacity configuration, which is a configuration JL doesn't operate on international missions.

As such, if JL is going to incur the expense of adding the A350-1000 to their fleet, they're going to do it because it's a better and more economical fit, overall, then staying with the 777-300ER or adding the 777-9.

Not because they want to "stick it" to Boeing.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-03-25 07:00:21 and read 11957 times.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 81):

I agree with some posters above that is quite sensible for some airlines to have more than one manufactuer in their fleet.

It prevents any future incident similar to the 787 from having such a huge impact.

Not necessarily - nobody suggested that JAL (or any other airline, for that matter) should buy competing products from each vendor, i.e. A320 and 737, or 77W and A350.
That would be the only way of really reducing the impact of the grounding of a certain sub-fleet. I think, though, that the grounding scenario is not one to really consider, as it's very rare indeed, and having a permanent backup plan for that kind of rare situation would cost more than leasing interim lift and retiring planes a bit later.
Having two vendors as active suppliers certainly has its advantages for carriers of JL's size, but the grounding scenario isn't necessarily one of them.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-03-25 07:27:14 and read 11824 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 50):
A final decision is expected by the end of June, this would be a nice Bourget surprise.

It would no doubt sweeten the Paris Air Show for Airbus if they could announce the order there.  .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
As such, if JL is going to incur the expense of adding the A350-1000 to their fleet, they're going to do it because it's a better and more economical fit, overall, then staying with the 777-300ER or adding the 777-9.

Not because they want to "stick it" to Boeing.

As always very well written. I totally agree with you.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: TC957
Posted 2013-03-25 07:27:55 and read 11852 times.

Agree as well. A JAL order for A350's would keep Airbus under pressure to deliver where Boeing has failed and produce an on-time reliable new-technology airliner. I hope they go for it, the relationship between JAL and Boeing has been far to cosy for too long. It's JAL's way of gently and diplomatically saying to Boeing you have let us down badly and your competitors product is looking good for us - there's no Akbar Al Baker rants from the JAL boardroom. Just sound business decisions on future fleet planning.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-03-25 07:33:52 and read 11790 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 66):
Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
If true, it would be a massive slap in the face for Boeing

Boeing always can reciprocate by reducing Japanese 787 content from 35%.

The Japanese heavies are risk sharing partners not just contractors, besides some eg MHI got the composite wingbox because they had expertise others did not (including Boeing). They could be bought out but both side would have to agree but its not the same as just not extending their contract as it is for many other suppliers.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: 817Dreamliiner
Posted 2013-03-25 07:46:40 and read 11733 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
As such, if JL is going to incur the expense of adding the A350-1000 to their fleet, they're going to do it because it's a better and more economical fit, overall, then staying with the 777-300ER or adding the 777-9.

Not because they want to "stick it" to Boeing.

Dont think I could have written this any better, once again well said Stitch! It Absolutely ridiculous that people here would think that an airline would do such a thing knowing the expense they would incur just to as you said,"stick it" to Boeing.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-03-25 07:54:53 and read 11667 times.

I'm not sure anyone is advocating they will stick it to B for the sake of doing so. They are going to look at all options and not automatically in a pavlovian fashion order American as they did before.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-25 08:26:56 and read 11508 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
It has nothing to do with denial. It has everything to do with common sense.

The argument is that JL is so displeased with Boeing over the 787 that they are going to place an order for the A350-1000 as a punitive action against Boeing to express that displeasure. So in order to spite Boeing, they're going to add a new model and family to their fleet that they have to create an entire support infrastructure for (simulators, maintenance, etc.). And unless they go Power by the Hour with Rolls, they'll also have to add an entirely new support infrastructure for that, as well, as I believe JL is a GE customer.

That's a fair bit of cash for a company just out of bankruptcy reorganization to spend just to spite a supplier - especially when you can squeeze that supplier for concessions.

I think JAL have themselves made it clear that they are going to diversify their aircraft supplier base. They made public remarks to this effect after the 787 grounding. Any new type will require supporting infrastructure, and Airbus will bend over backwards to ensure the cost of this does not become a show-stopper. A fleet of 20 is not small, and adding a new engine relationship to service this fleet is not going to be a dealbreaker either.

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 87):
Dont think I could have written this any better, once again well said Stitch! It Absolutely ridiculous that people here would think that an airline would do such a thing knowing the expense they would incur just to as you said,"stick it" to Boeing.

Well, with your username, I am not surprised you feel this way   The cost of adding a new supplier for a new aircraft model will of course be factored in, and as stated above, am sure Airbus will help with this. But the cost of having your eggs in one basket can also be high as JAL has found out, and that needs to be factored in too.

[Edited 2013-03-25 08:27:41]

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: 817Dreamliiner
Posted 2013-03-25 08:40:47 and read 11417 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 89):
Well, with your username, I am not surprised you feel this way  

Sure you would assume that...  But unfortunately you dont know me well enough to know why its in my username, it has nothing to do with the 787 as odd as that may sound...    Regarding my comment, im just trying to be realistic

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-25 09:47:45 and read 11108 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 74):
Yes, and risk creating even more risk and unknowns by replacing these suppliers, who have come up the learning curve on the 787 with Boeing, with new suppliers and bringing them up to speed on the 787.

In an outsourced manufacturing model there is always risk associated with switching suppliers. Doesn't mean stay with same supplier until end of life.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 86):
The Japanese heavies are risk sharing partners not just contractors, besides some eg MHI got the composite wingbox because they had expertise others did not (including Boeing). They could be bought out but both side would have to agree but its not the same as just not extending their contract as it is for many other suppliers.

This may be true 5 years back and even today. In next five years some one else can do it. Boeing owns the design and process. Once initial contract is over Boeing can switch supplier/partner.

My post was about JAL A350 order being a slap on Boeing's face. Just like JAL CEO said, JAL cannot rely on one manufacturer, similarly Boeing cannot rely on single sourcing.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-03-25 09:59:21 and read 11064 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 91):
ust like JAL CEO said, JAL cannot rely on one manufacturer, similarly Boeing cannot rely on single sourcing.

These two are hardly comparable. JAL can choose between Boeing and Airbus. Boeing chooses for a new designed airplane hundreds of suppliers, where possibly more than 1,000 or even more suppliers might be bidding for some of the to be outsourced work. And the Japanese partner are risk-sharing in the B787 project and brought in a considerable amount of funding money to the program. Such suppliers you just do not easily switch.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-03-25 11:29:09 and read 10710 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 91):
This may be true 5 years back and even today. In next five years some one else can do it. Boeing owns the design and process.

The latter is manifestly untrue for quite a lot of components that Boeing get from third party suppliers. Avionics, engines, and - if you look at the 787 in particular - a lot of the composite processes have not been developed by Boeing, nor have they been bought by Boeing. The one obvious exception being any 787-related patents that Vought owned, as Boeing did buy Vought's 787 operations. Although come to think of it, I'm not even sure if that transaction did actually include intellectual property (i.e. patents etc.).
It would be relatively easy for Boeing to switch suppliers for, say, the pilot seats in an airplane, or the lavatory doors - anything that's more substantially integrated into the aircraft design and systems would require a huge amount of effort.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 91):
Once initial contract is over Boeing can switch supplier/partner.

You can rest assured that for any substantial parts of a programme, Boeing and their supplier have exclusivity contracts that are valid until the end of life of the programme. An obvious example would the the contract they have with GE for powering the 77W and 77LR.
Things get even more tightly-knit for Boeing's agreeements with, e.g., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Not just because MHI make the rather crucial wingbox, but also, because MHI developed the processes to make them and is a risk-sharing partner in the 787 programme.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 91):
In an outsourced manufacturing model there is always risk associated with switching suppliers. Doesn't mean stay with same supplier until end of life.

Unless you're talking about easily replaceable and reproducible items - a very narrow field in the aerospace industry - you really want to avoid that risk. For example, I cannot think of any reason, not even a most artificially constructed one, that would lead Boeing to switch from MHI to another supplier for the 787 wingboxes. OK, there's one reason - MHI going bust, in which case Boeing would still stick with whoever buys the 787 wingbox business from the remains of MHI. Not that MHI is likely to go bust any time soon anyway.

TL:DR: You don't just switch a supplier like that. Least of all because one customer that happens to be from the same country as the supplier doesn't order your latest product.

As trex8 already wrote:

Quoting trex8 (Reply 86):
The Japanese heavies are risk sharing partners not just contractors, besides some eg MHI got the composite wingbox because they had expertise others did not (including Boeing). They could be bought out but both side would have to agree but its not the same as just not extending their contract as it is for many other suppliers.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: PW100
Posted 2013-03-25 12:38:53 and read 10509 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
What would be happening "around June" time?

If it there is any truth in the Anet laws of wisdom (Airbus holding out orders for BIG Le Bourget announcements), then this year Airbus may just be setting up a Wide-Body order bonanza, given the fact that the A320NEO production has now been virtually sold into the next decade with the recent NEO mega announcements . . . .

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 21):
People, please. JAL is looking for 777 replacements, this has nothing to do with the 787 problems.

Probably true, but there is nothing stopping JAL from (mis)using the opportunity to rub in some extra salt in the current open flesh wounds.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 39):
We'll see if they stick to that timetable. If they do, then it HAS to be more 777's or 787's. The A350 (nor 777X) will be available to JAL that soon
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 43):
But EIS of the A350-1000 is 2017, unless JAL know something more.

Perhaps JL can set up some 359 slots (as interim lift).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
I very much doubt that Airbus has any 2016 A350-900 delivery positions available.
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 48):
I would be surprised if Airbus has any delivery slots in 2016 left.

Don't underestimate the powers of JL to close a deal, swap/trade some slots. Especially when it concerns such a high-profile long standing Boeing customer. Even the timing with the current 787 woes, would probably only add to JL's desires and unlimited efforts to get this deal done under his competitor nose.

Rgds,
PW100

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2013-03-25 13:29:58 and read 10384 times.

Quoting PM (Reply 3):

What neither of you mention is that it's the -1000 they are looking at.

"The Japanese carrier is considering using A350-1000 jets on flights to Europe and the United States to replace its Boeing 777 jets."

Well, it seems Boeing wants JAL as one of its 777X launch customers, and it would not be illogical for JAL to look at its closest competitor to see it that might be a better option.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
13 777-300ERs in need of replacement

Are you sure JAL needs a replacement for its 77W? They're pretty new, even SQ hasn't expressed plans to replace their 77W's (but I might have missed something after 3 months with hardly any internet   )

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: I380North
Posted 2013-03-25 14:05:47 and read 10249 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
JL has 7 777-300s and 13 777-300ERs in need of replacement. There is no directly equivalent 787 model (unless Boeing launches a 75m 787-11X) and if you believe Airbus, the A350-1000 will be 25% more efficient than the 777-300ER and probably as good against the 777-300. The A350-1000 is also similar in size to the international 777-300ER fleet and while it will give up some Economy seats to the 777-300, that's likely not a bad thing.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
As such, if JL is going to incur the expense of adding the A350-1000 to their fleet, they're going to do it because it's a better and more economical fit, overall, then staying with the 777-300ER or adding the 777-9.

Not because they want to "stick it" to Boeing.

         I couldn't say any better, Stich

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-03-25 14:53:05 and read 10081 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 82):
JL has 7 777-300s and 13 777-300ERs in need of replacement.

Why would JAL replace their 777-300ER ? Some are only 5 years old. Seems the A350-1000 is quite ahead of its time for a 77W replacement at JAL.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-25 15:18:58 and read 9958 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 93):
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Not just because MHI make the rather crucial wingbox, but also, because MHI developed the processes to make them and is a risk-sharing partner in the 787 programme.

If you are considering just technical aspect you are 100% correct. But just because MHI designed, developed and mastered the process it doesn't own anything. Boeing paid for everything, and Boeing can move it any other supplier.

United Space Alliance(USA) was a NASA partner for entire Space Shuttle program, no one says USA owns Shuttle program.

ANA ordered 66 frames also a launch customer and JAL ordered 45 frames. Japan sources 35% of 787 content. Everything is quid-pro-quo. Next year if China places order for 300 frames, part of the deal could be some content will be sourced from China.

India ordered 10 x C-130s, Lockheed Martin is now making C-130 wingbox in India.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-25 16:52:23 and read 9745 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 94):
Perhaps JL can set up some 359 slots (as interim lift).

JL has 20 787-9 orders and 26 777-200s and 777-200ERs to replace. They also have 20 787 options, so they should be covered there and would not need the A350-900.



Quoting frigatebird (Reply 95):
Are you sure JAL needs a replacement for its 77W?
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 97):
Why would JAL replace their 777-300ER ? Some are only 5 years old. Seems the A350-1000 is quite ahead of its time for a 77W replacement at JAL.

The 777-300s were delivered between 1998 and 2003 and their 777-300ERs between 2004 and 2009.

So realistically, initial deliveries for 777-300 replacement won't be necessary until the end of the decade with 777-300ER replacement deliveries starting in the 2020s. As such, that gives Airbus (and Boeing) plenty of flexibility in meeting JL's delivery needs.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-03-25 17:24:41 and read 9659 times.

Any talk linking the A350 with the goings-on of the 787 is patently absurd.

There's one reason, and one reason only, why JAL is seriously considering the A350 -- at this point in the 77W sales cycle, and with a looming next-gen 777 and the A350 around the corner, there's a strong likelihood that a further 777-300ER order could prove to be a very bad bet financially. JAL is likely not the only airline to have reached a similar conclusion -- pretty much every airline that's not an early launch customer of the 77W with further sweetheart options, or else truly desperate for its capacity at any price, is going to take a pass on the 77W because of the financials (Boeing discounts the 77W less than other models, the 777 family is expensive as it is, and newer 777 types plus new competitors will mean a major hit to 77W residual and resale values).

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: mariner
Posted 2013-03-25 17:46:42 and read 9628 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 100):
Any talk linking the A350 with the goings-on of the 787 is patently absurd.

I think it is "absurd" that Air New Zealand has lost commercial opportunities because of the 787 delays and has publicly said so.

I understand the considerable advantages of being a loyal customer, but the primary responsibility of any airline is to its owners/shareholders, not to that manufacturer, and I think Boeing is blessed that there haven't been more defections.

Air NZ now has much its expansion plans tied to some 787 deliveries next year. I hope there is a Plan B, but I'm not holding my breath.

I assume that if the A350 happens at Japan will be because the airline thinks it is the best plane for its needs, but - as a not irrelevant side issue - I think it is sensible to spread the load between manufacturers and 20 aircraft is not exactly "sticking it" to Boeing.

mariner

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-26 01:24:57 and read 9334 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 100):
Any talk linking the A350 with the goings-on of the 787 is patently absurd.

There's one reason, and one reason only, why JAL is seriously considering the A350 -- at this point in the 77W sales cycle, and with a looming next-gen 777 and the A350 around the corner, there's a strong likelihood that a further 777-300ER order could prove to be a very bad bet financially.

Absurd even though JAL has never bought Airbus before, regardless of products on offer and comparative merits, because of a "US aircraft only" philosophy it has followed for decades?

Absurd even though the JAL chaiirman came out publicly AFTER the 787 grounding and said JAL had to re-think its "Boeing-only" fleet strategy?

Absurd even though Boeing has similar aircraft in the works and aircraft are a 20-30 year investment?

Yup, absurd indeed.

What is absurd is people being in denial about the obvious linkage and message to Boeing, as well as people claiming that post-bankruptcy JAL has a duty to make the best economic choice, as if buying Boeing all these years was always a poor economic choice and is what drove them to bankruptcy.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: AngMoh
Posted 2013-03-26 04:00:38 and read 8924 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 98):
If you are considering just technical aspect you are 100% correct. But just because MHI designed, developed and mastered the process it doesn't own anything. Boeing paid for everything, and Boeing can move it any other supplier.

A risk sharing partner paid for their own development in exchange for higher profits in the long term. Boeing did not pay for everything and Boeing can not move to another supplier. And even if they could move to another supplier, it would probably mean re-certification being required: something you won't do because one customer who is independent of your supplier bought 20 planes from a competitor while they buy 50+ from you...

JL is not going to buy just from Airbus to get a dual source policy. What they will do is seriously consider multiple suppliers instead of running to Boeing by default. And if Boeing has the best planes, it will be still an all Boeing fleet, but this time at a better discount of list price. And if the competitor offer is better, then the competitor it will be. And I am pretty sure that if they buy A350s, it will be at a very good price.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: mats01776
Posted 2013-03-26 04:23:31 and read 8860 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 98):
If you are considering just technical aspect you are 100% correct. But just because MHI designed, developed and mastered the process it doesn't own anything. Boeing paid for everything, and Boeing can move it any other supplier.

The statement is patently false on many levels.

Boeing does not own intellectual properties to the manufacturing processes or specific uses of materials that were developed by the risk sharing partners.

To wit:

Quote:

•Boeing has asked all suppliers to carry all of the non-recurring costs; in
return, gives back to risk-sharing partnering suppliers the intellectual
property rights on the components or systems they provide
•Contracts are so designed that if the aircraft does well in the marketplace,
the risk-sharing partners derive direct benefits (revenues above amortized
costs of non-recurring investments based on initially-agreed-up expected
unit sales volume)
•Major partnering suppliers (e.g., Hamilton-Sundstrand), with big “chunks”
of the aircraft, can make design trades within each work package and
across company units to find optimal system solutions
•Lower-tier suppliers are not provided IP ownership but are given long-term
relationships, where they can benefit from scale economies
•Boeing only provides high-level interface definition; the first-tier (major
partnering suppliers) are responsible for the detailed interface definitions &
designs
•Suppliers work together and Boeing acts as referee in case of conflicts
Web-enabled in formation technologies & systems a critical enabler


[Edited 2013-03-26 04:50:44]

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-03-26 05:31:09 and read 8634 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 98):
If you are considering just technical aspect you are 100% correct. But just because MHI designed, developed and mastered the process it doesn't own anything. Boeing paid for everything, and Boeing can move it any other supplier.

Others have pointed out the errors in this argument plus I doubt Tokyo will look favorably on B taking work away after the 1.5-3 billion US$ " investment"- (what B would characterize as an illegal subsidy if it came from a Euro capital - except if it also came from Rome) the Japanese taxpayer made in the heavies for this project.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: packsonflight
Posted 2013-03-26 06:20:02 and read 8504 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 94):
Probably true, but there is nothing stopping JAL from (mis)using the opportunity to rub in some extra salt in the current open flesh wounds.

This has nothing do do with "sticking it to Boeing" or rubbing salt in to open flesh wounds, It is about JL management using the opportunity to obtain freedom to choose, which is a right they have not enjoyed in the past because of the relationship between Boeing and Japanese government/industry.

Boeing does not really have to listen to JAL demands for cash compensations for the 787 fiasco because of political pressure since JL has not bin able to threaten with Airbus. It is a lot like a running a company with the hands tight, and from a management point of view a position you don't want to be in, so I really understand if the JL management wants to use this 787 saga to brake free.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-26 08:20:09 and read 8283 times.

Quoting packsonflight (Reply 106):
It is about JL management using the opportunity to obtain freedom to choose
Quoting packsonflight (Reply 106):
I really understand if the JL management wants to use this 787 saga to brake free.

However both of these intents or acts that you describe are, indeed, further proving that is in fact a slap in the face of Boeing.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-03-26 14:20:42 and read 7917 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 102):
Absurd even though JAL has never bought Airbus before, regardless of products on offer and comparative merits, because of a "US aircraft only" philosophy it has followed for decades?

Absurd even though the JAL chaiirman came out publicly AFTER the 787 grounding and said JAL had to re-think its "Boeing-only" fleet strategy?

Absurd even though Boeing has similar aircraft in the works and aircraft are a 20-30 year investment?

Yup, absurd indeed.

What is absurd is people being in denial about the obvious linkage and message to Boeing, as well as people claiming that post-bankruptcy JAL has a duty to make the best economic choice, as if buying Boeing all these years was always a poor economic choice and is what drove them to bankruptcy.

JAL basing an A350 purchase off of 787 troubles would be absurd even in light of everything you just wrote. Why?

Because it's simply not necessary to bring the 787 into the discussion of why the 77W is likely a bad financial bet for most potential customers at this stage. If JAL does not have 77W options at sweetheart rates, it's almost certain to overpay for that wonderful but overly expensive aircraft, leading to spending more cash than necessary and taking significant balance sheet hits down the road. Some airlines are going to stomach the cost of the 77W because they're that desperate for capacity in that size category, and it's the only plane available in the market. Any airline that can afford to wait (or lacks early customer options for the plane at favorable prices) will go with the A350 or hold out for the 777 Next, since financial terms for those planes will be much more favorable.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-26 15:09:36 and read 7719 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 108):
Any airline that can afford to wait (or lacks early customer options for the plane at favorable prices) will go with the A350 or hold out for the 777 Next, since financial terms for those planes will be much more favorable.

The old JAL, and certainly the pre-787 saga JAL, would have likely held out for the 777 Next as they had a Boeing-only strategy. Which is why this switch to Airbus cannot be disconnected from the 787 saga and JAL's discomfort with continuing with a sole supplier strategy that has resulted from it.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-03-26 15:22:43 and read 7671 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 80):
I fully agree. It is controversial only to those still deep in denial about the reality of the seriousness and impact of Boeing's 787 problems.

Its pretty offensive when you tell people that they are in denial just because they see things differently than you. One might say that you are in fact CHOOSING to see it the way you WANT to see it.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 85):
I hope they go for it, the relationship between JAL and Boeing has been far to cosy for too long.

How would you know it's "far too cozy"? How do you know that it hasn't benefited JAL in a great many ways?

Quoting sankaps (Reply 89):
Well, with your username, I am not surprised you feel this way

That's a pretty lame comment. You have clearly shown that flag or username are not idicators of one's biases.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 102):
What is absurd is people being in denial about the obvious linkage and message to Boeing

Again, you choose to see it one way. Someone else chooses to see it a different way. Why are THEY the ones who have the problem? Pretty arrogant approach I'd say.

Quoting flybyguy (Reply 25):
Boeing should be shopping for new marketing and sales people... this is just embarrassing.

What did THEY do? They didn't engineer the thing.

Quoting flybyguy (Reply 25):
I really do think that this spate of poached Boeing customers is really a vote of "no confidence" on Boeing products and the Boeing ability to provide good products and services.

Reminds me of when the 787 won the likes of AC and NW and the Airbus sales efforts for the A350 Mk 1 were not exactly spurning Boeing's poaching efforts.

The point is, things change all the time. This too shall pass. JAL may go for the A350 (which will look hot in their livery) but someone else will buy Boeing that hadn't in a while yada yada yada.

-Dave

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-26 16:36:38 and read 7495 times.

Quoting mats01776 (Reply 104):
The statement is patently false on many levels.Boeing does not own intellectual properties to the manufacturing processes or specific uses of materials that were developed by the risk sharing partners.

It was Boeing's pipe dream to expect suppliers(risk partners) to invest. Much of it contributes to Boeing's lack of experience in globally outsourced manufacturing model. Boeing didn't even had contracts with Tier1 risk partners in the beginning of 787 program. They just had MOUs. Fuji didn't even agree to invest the initial non-recurring investment. Most of the Tier1 risk partners bumped the cost by 25%. Boeing has to pay up because program was already delayed.

I didn't say Boeing owns the IP on generic manufacturing process. Boeing owns the IP for 787 parts design and manufacturing process. Otherwise Boeing has no command and control on entire program.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Mat1776
Posted 2013-03-26 18:43:26 and read 7356 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 111):
didn't say Boeing owns the IP on generic manufacturing process. Boeing owns the IP for 787 parts design and manufacturing process. Otherwise Boeing has no command and control on entire program.

Do you seriously think that Boeing owns IP for all the vital components such as the electric air compressors or spoiler actuators? Or the battery charging system?

For the 787 program, Boeing acts more as a prime contractor/systems integrator than a vertically integrated manufacturer.

You are still repeating what you said that had been shown to be false:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 98):
But just because MHI designed, developed and mastered the process it doesn't own anything. Boeing paid for everything, and Boeing can move it any other supplier.

No, Boeing did not pay for the development of MHI's composite wing box manufacturing process.
No, Boeing did not pay for the development of how the carbon fiber strands are woven into the fabric.
No, Boeing did not pay for the development of automated 3D mCAD tools to translate the designs into production-ready solid model "drawings".

Instead, this is what Boeing did in the 787 project:

Quote:

Under the 787 program, Boeing instituted a new risk sharing contract under which no strategic suppliers will
receive payment for the development cost until Boeing
delivers its first 787 to its customers (slated to be ANA
airlines). This contract payment term was intended to
provide incentives for strategic partners to collaborate
and coordinate their development efforts. Although this
contract imposes certain financial risks for Boeing's
strategic suppliers if delivery deadlines are missed, they
are incentivized by being allowed to own their
intellectual property, which can then be licensed to
other companies in the future.


Can you see the fallacy of your argument?

[Edited 2013-03-26 19:02:03]

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-03-27 01:19:09 and read 7008 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 111):
Otherwise Boeing has no command and control on entire program.

And that is exactly why the 787 program has been the mess it has. Boeing lost control.   

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-27 07:29:40 and read 6453 times.

Quoting Mat1776 (Reply 112):
No, Boeing did not pay for the development of MHI's composite wing box manufacturing process.No, Boeing did not pay for the development of how the carbon fiber strands are woven into the fabric.No, Boeing did not pay for the development of automated 3D mCAD tools to translate the designs into production-ready solid model "drawings".
Quoting Mat1776 (Reply 112):
Under the 787 program, Boeing instituted a new risk sharing contract under which no strategic suppliers will receive payment for the development cost until Boeing delivers its first 787 to its customers

You statement and quote are contradictory.

Can you explain what "payment for the development cost until Boeing delivers its first 787" means.

Doesn't it mean Boeing paid suppliers for development after first 787 delivery.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-03-27 08:20:28 and read 6320 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 109):
The old JAL, and certainly the pre-787 saga JAL, would have likely held out for the 777 Next as they had a Boeing-only strategy.

I disagree, as the 777 Next option will have a markedly different timeframe -- on the order of 4-5 YEARS -- than a selection of the alternative option (A350). I would potentially agree with you if, for example the 350 and 777 Next were hitting the market at about the same time. But the cold truth is that, if desired, JAL can have nearly 50 A350s in its fleet before Boeing could get even 5 777 Next planes delivered. In light of this, any major operator would be foolish to exclude serious consideration of the A350.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: mats01776
Posted 2013-03-27 11:27:27 and read 6073 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 114):
You statement and quote are contradictory.
Can you explain what "payment for the development cost until Boeing delivers its first 787" means.
Doesn't it mean Boeing paid suppliers for development after first 787 delivery.

Sure, Boeing is paying the development costs in the form of amortized non-recurring cost that is included in the "transfer price" of each landing gear, passenger entry doors, wing tips, engine nacelles, etc.

I now realize that you not only do not understand the basic tenets of the 787 program, but also do not understand the fundamental concept of risk sharing partnership (RSP).

In most Tier-1 partners, the partner paid the majority of non-recurring costs up front that include design/development/implementation engineering, construction of manufacturing lines, etc in exchange for the ownership of the IP of their sub-assembly.

In the case of MHI, the amortized non-recurring costs for the sub-assemblies are included in the "transfer price" of the completed wing boxes, etc, and it was partly financed through the use of the low interest US$3 Billion loan from International Aircraft Development Fund. When Boeing sells more than the break-even number of units of 787, MHI gets to pay off the loan. If not, MHI is stuck with the loan.

Such is the nature of "Risk Sharing".

In the 787 program, the risk sharing partnership extends through the entire life of the program.
Boeing will have to negotiate with, or buy out the partner should they choose to get out of the agreement earlier.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-27 11:35:09 and read 6040 times.

Quoting mats01776 (Reply 116):
I now realize that you not only do not understand the basic tenets of the 787 program, but also do not understand the fundamental concept of risk sharing partnership (RSP).

  

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-27 13:15:33 and read 5857 times.

Quoting mats01776 (Reply 116):

I guess "Risk Partner" is equivalent to 2008 "Maverick". If you cannot answer the question keep repeating the buzzword.

There are only two questions

1) Who paid for design and development of 787 sub-assemblies.
Ans: Boeing paid. When? Upfront or On First 787 Delivery.

2) Who owns IP for 787 designs.
Ans: Boeing, why because Boeing paid for it.

MHI still owns IP for how the fabric is woven, how the glue is applied .... But Boeing owns the IP for same process used for 787 components. MHI has to document everything and turn it over to Boeing once MHI gets paid (i.e, on first 787 delivery)

Why, if your theory is correct, Airbus can source from Boeing Tier 1 suppliers and build identical plane to 787. Boeing cannot stop them.

The reason Boeing asked Tier 1 partners to invest is so they have skin in the game during design and development process.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-03-27 13:33:56 and read 5791 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 118):
There are only two questions

1) Who paid for design and development of 787 sub-assemblies.
Ans: Boeing paid. When? Upfront or On First 787 Delivery.

2) Who owns IP for 787 designs.
Ans: Boeing, why because Boeing paid for it.

1) Costs were shared. That is why it is called "risk sharing".

2) Both own it, because costs were shared.

Perhaps we can give this topic a rest now.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: ncfc99
Posted 2013-03-27 13:39:46 and read 5758 times.

The way I understand risk sharing is as follows-

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 118):
1) Who paid for design and development of 787 sub-assemblies.
Ans: Boeing paid. When? Upfront or On First 787 Delivery.

The teir 1 suppliers paid. When a 787 gets delivered they get a payment for the part they made plus extra on top for the risk involved (risk of late delivery penalties, risk of overweight penalties, risk they can't do it etc.), also can be known as upfront development costs. If boeing had paid for the upfront development costs, the parts would be cheaper

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 118):
2) Who owns IP for 787 designs.
Ans: Boeing, why because Boeing paid for it.

The teir 1 suppliers. They developed the methods to met boeings spec, and they own the IP. If boeing want the IP, they need to get thier cheque book out. I would assume there is a clause in the contract that stops airbus getting thier hands on, or the teir 1 suppliers using that same IP for an airbus project. Weather there is a certain limit of delivered frames until clauses expire and certain IP becomes saleable to other airframmers is up for discussion.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-03-27 14:17:06 and read 5668 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 118):
Why, if your theory is correct, Airbus can source from Boeing Tier 1 suppliers and build identical plane to 787.

Airbus and Boeing share many suppliers. Spirit builds A350 and 787 fuselage sections.   

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: PW100
Posted 2013-03-27 14:40:29 and read 5590 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 114):
Doesn't it mean Boeing paid suppliers for development after first 787 delivery

That (receiving money) is what usually happens when you start delivery of hardware you just developed . . . .

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 118):
2) Who owns IP for 787 designs.
Ans: Boeing, why because Boeing paid for it.

No. Does the airline that buys a 787 now own that intellectual property? No, despite the fact they just transferred 200M dollars to Boeing.

A contractor/supplier that developed a landing gear, will get paid (by Boeing) for the delivery of that landing gear. There is no relevance to the intellectual property.

The suppliers footed the bill for developing stuff on the 787 - from landing gears, to completely outfitted fuselage sections, to wing sections, and even completely outfitted wings, and to batteries . . . . It's called risk sharing. They also share in the profits, as when they deliver their stuff to Boeing, they get paid by Boeing. The more 787 Boeing sells, the more the risk sharing partners will get paid. That money is used to pay for the loans and financing that they had to put into place in order to finance their share of the development. It's called an investment. The thing here is that the risk sharing partners were taking a large part of that investment off from Boeing shoulders. They get rewarded by future profits, and intellectual property that they can use for other products.

PW100

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2013-03-27 15:04:24 and read 5522 times.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 120):
Quoting PW100 (Reply 122):

May I suggest to read full Reply 118 before jumping to post.

Strategic Suppliers/Risk Partners/Tier1 Suppliers own IP for the technology knowhow acquired during 787 design process.

They don't own IP for 787 sub-assemblies built as per Boeing specs.

MHI can sell a CRPF wingbox to Airbus using same process but not 787 wingbox. Hope you guys understand the difference.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 120):
If boeing had paid for the upfront development costs, the parts would be cheaper

Welcome to the world of outsourcing. Suppliers charge back every dollar they spent on a outsourced program to customer plus they charge per piece. Common practice in any outsourcing manufacturing model. I am really surprised so many members on this forum somehow think suppliers will spend money on customer's projects.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Mat1776
Posted 2013-03-27 15:32:29 and read 5450 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 118):
Why, if your theory is correct, Airbus can source from Boeing Tier 1 suppliers and build identical plane to 787. Boeing cannot stop them.


Have you ever heard of a "Non-compete Agreement" that is a norm in technology procurement?
Along with a "Non Disclosure Agreement" that the suppliers must sign, your scenario becomes legally not viable.

As for "Boeing cannot stop them", did you know that Boeing itself manufactures the tail fin and the aft fuselage? A 787 copy without the tail fin and the aft fuselage may be lighter, but it would not fly very well.

For more background information on the 787 program you can read this Boeing publication

Quote:

Trust, true partnerships and relationship building are at the heart of this changing dynamic. Boeing, its people and its partners are taking a leap of faith to allow what was perhaps a core competency to be transferred to someone else who can do it as well as—if not better than—before.

"Boeing is dependent on a healthy supply chain to remain competitive," Morris said. "When the supplier is an integral part of the design and production process, we share a common destiny. Our success is fundamentally linked to how well we work together."


The sad outcome of all this is that Boeing currently does not have in-house expertise to manufacture the wing for the 787, one of its showcase products.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: ncfc99
Posted 2013-03-27 15:38:43 and read 5423 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 123):
May I suggest to read full Reply 118 before jumping to post.

I'm not jumping to post, I stated thats how I understand it, not that i'm right. I'm trying to learn as I'm reading here.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 123):
Strategic Suppliers/Risk Partners/Tier1 Suppliers own IP for the technology knowhow acquired during 787 design process.

They don't own IP for 787 sub-assemblies built as per Boeing specs.
Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 123):
MHI can sell a CRPF wingbox to Airbus using same process but not 787 wingbox. Hope you guys understand the difference.

So the teir 1 suppliers can sell a wingbox to airbus made with the same tech/process but to different specs. To me thats IP owned by the teir 1 supplier, and boeing own the spec. If i've got that wrong, could you please explain further? How is spec classed as IP?

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 123):
Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 120):If boeing had paid for the upfront development costs, the parts would be cheaper
Welcome to the world of outsourcing. Suppliers charge back every dollar they spent on a outsourced program to customer plus they charge per piece. Common practice in any outsourcing manufacturing model. I am really surprised so many members on this forum somehow think suppliers will spend money on customer's projects.

As I said above, thats how I understand risk sharing/outsourcing. Are you saying when the first wingbox was delivered, boeing paid for the wing box(per piece) and development of that wing box, then they pay only for each wingbox for each further delivery. As I understood it, boeing paid for the wingbox plus a premium on each wingbox so the teir 1 supplier recovers its up front costs that way.



For an example(figures are not acurate),

1) If boeing had covered all $10b of the 787 development cost themselves, boeing would keep 100% of any profits they made on the 787 with suppliers being paid per piece they supplied, the cost of the development of the piece they supply would be covered by boeing. No risk shared.

2) If boeing covered only $6b of development cost and the teir 1 suppliers covered $4b. So the profits are then split 60/40, if they 787 fails to make any profit, the losses are also split 60/40. The risk to boeing is shared.

Example 2 is my understanding of risk sharing with alot more complication involved aswell.

Please explain further anything I have incorrect.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: 817Dreamliiner
Posted 2013-03-27 15:45:34 and read 5400 times.

I think we've gone off topic now...      

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-03-27 15:58:39 and read 5460 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 123):
I am really surprised so many members on this forum somehow think suppliers will spend money on customer's projects.

They will, and do, when they're risk-sharing partners.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-03-27 16:51:27 and read 5382 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 99):
The 777-300s were delivered between 1998 and 2003 and their 777-300ERs between 2004 and 2009.

So realistically, initial deliveries for 777-300 replacement won't be necessary until the end of the decade with 777-300ER replacement deliveries starting in the 2020s. As such, that gives Airbus (and Boeing) plenty of flexibility in meeting JL's delivery needs.

The immediate issue is the 773(non ER) since they have many cycles due to Japan's short flights. But is an A350-900 the right domestic large airplane for JAL ?

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-27 17:32:08 and read 5340 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 115):
I disagree, as the 777 Next option will have a markedly different timeframe -- on the order of 4-5 YEARS -- than a selection of the alternative option (A350).

Delivery positions for the A350-1000 and 777-9 are probably pretty close unless Boeing has some large 777-9 purchase agreements they're keeping quiet.



Quoting jfk777 (Reply 128):
The immediate issue is the 773(non ER) since they have many cycles due to Japan's short flights. But is an A350-900 the right domestic large airplane for JAL?

As a 777-300 replacement, the 787 option would be the 787-10 and the A350 option would be the A350-1000.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-03-27 22:43:42 and read 5111 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 129):
As a 777-300 replacement, the 787 option would be the 787-10 and the A350 option would be the A350-1000.

I wonder if JAL will fit a 10-across economy configuration on their A350-1000s if they order them for 777-300 replacement. It is the only way that they can match the passenger capacity of their domestic 777-300s which are fitted with 10 seats per row in economy. The 787-10 would be too small.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-28 06:00:48 and read 4757 times.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 130):
I wonder if JAL will fit a 10-across economy configuration on their A350-1000s if they order them for 777-300 replacement.

I would guess not and just accept the reduction in capacity, which might not be a bad idea if traffic starts to decline.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-03-29 01:11:03 and read 4194 times.

I hope all airlines order what is best for them, otherwise I can understand why so many suffer.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-03-29 01:58:02 and read 4117 times.

With the recent Aspire Aviation analysis, reporting Japan Airlines being on the 777X design working group, I would say that the chance of JAL ordering A350-1000 is slim to none.

I suppose Boeing will offer them interim lease of newer 777-300ERs until 777-8X enters service.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: knoxibus
Posted 2013-03-29 02:11:55 and read 4082 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 133):
reporting Japan Airlines being on the 777X design working group

One should know that the same can be said about the A350. Many customers such as DLH, BAW, JAL participate to the A350 CFGs (Customer Focus Groups) albeit they did not order the aircraft.

It's not because you participate to such workshops and provide guidance that you are a 100% sure customer .  

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-03-29 02:19:18 and read 4056 times.

Quoting knoxibus (Reply 134):
albeit they did not order the aircraft

You left off the word "yet"!   

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-29 06:10:09 and read 3612 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 133):
With the recent Aspire Aviation analysis, reporting Japan Airlines being on the 777X design working group, I would say that the chance of JAL ordering A350-1000 is slim to none.

QF was on the original 777 "Working Together" Design Group, and yet they chose the A330-300, instead.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2013-03-29 06:31:26 and read 3538 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 136):
QF was on the original 777 "Working Together" Design Group, and yet they chose the A330-300, instead.

Will be very interesting what QF will do to bridge the gap between 787-9 and A380, 777X or A350????

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-03-29 06:42:57 and read 3505 times.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 137):
Will be very interesting what QF will do to bridge the gap between 787-9 and A380, 777X or A350?

I'm of the inclination to believe it will be nothing.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2013-03-29 07:30:11 and read 3394 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 138):

A couple of years ago they said they were interested in a long range 350 seater aircraft. This may have changed now, with QF's tie-up with EK. Maybe they don't need something like that any more. But with QF's partial cancellation of their 789's and deferred deliveries of their remaining A380's I'm not so sure. But I guess that's for another thread.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-03-29 10:10:10 and read 3218 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 133):
With the recent Aspire Aviation analysis, reporting Japan Airlines being on the 777X design working group, I would say that the chance of JAL ordering A350-1000 is slim to none.

I disagree. I don't see why the A350-1000 and the 777-9X can't be in the same fleet.

Topic: RE: Report:JAL Looking To Buy 20 A350s
Username: gemuser
Posted 2013-03-29 13:23:32 and read 2982 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 138):
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 137):
Will be very interesting what QF will do to bridge the gap between 787-9 and A380, 777X or A350?

I'm of the inclination to believe it will be nothing.

        

But if we are both wrong, I tend to favour the A350 simply because it is a new clean sheet design & QF have no B777 heritage. But who knows???


Gemuser


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