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Topic: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: jcwr56
Posted 2013-03-23 11:39:52 and read 12105 times.

Beautiful but chilly day for their flight AB7420 with 298 passengers on board including the Mayor of Berlin. Small ribbon cutting ceremony upon arrival.

Nice addition to the Chicago market and best of luck.

Air Berlin launches new service between Chicago and Berlin

[Edited 2013-03-29 10:07:05 by SA7700]

Topic: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: AmricanShamrok
Posted 2013-03-23 12:21:30 and read 11913 times.

Nice to see. The beginning of a very interesting summer season of international movements at ORD.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: LTU330
Posted 2013-03-24 00:40:25 and read 9630 times.

I am surprised that the Mayor of Berlin was onboard (unless he bought his own ticket) considering the damage done to Air Berlin due to the new airport debacle !

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: SurfandSnow
Posted 2013-03-24 01:11:14 and read 9509 times.

This oneworld hub-hub route should do well. Almost all Americans visiting Germany (for leisure purposes) are headed to Berlin anyway, and will probably appreciate the convenience of a nonstop option like this over a connection at CDG, EWR, FRA, JFK, LHR, etc. Another feather in the cap for an increasingly impressive T5 lineup at ORD. On deck we have QR (starts April 10th), OS (resumes May 17th), and HU (starts September 3rd), not to mention new services by domestic carriers AA (DUS starts April 11th, PDX resumes June 12th), B6 (SJU starts November 20th), and UA (MOB starts April 9th, SJO starts April 13th, FAI and SNN start on June 6th). Then across town at MDW we have FL starting MBJ on April 14th, PUJ on April 19th, and MEM on August 11th, F9 starting TTN on April 8th, SY starting MSP on July 1st, and WN starting CLT and ROC on April 14th, TUL on April 15th, ICT on June 2nd, JAX on September 29th, and per a new thread GEG sometime in June as well! Chicago is really doing well in terms of air service these days!

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: Carmelo
Posted 2013-03-24 03:43:42 and read 8778 times.

Its a great addition for us Berliners especially for connections for the midwest, avoids a stop in New York.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: cgnnrw
Posted 2013-03-24 08:01:50 and read 7301 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
Almost all Americans visiting Germany (for leisure purposes) are headed to Berlin anyway, and will probably appreciate the convenience of a nonstop option like this over a connection at CDG, EWR, FRA, JFK, LHR, etc.

Not sure where you get your information on American travelers but that is really going out on a limb. The second half of your statement may have some truth in it though.

I wish AB all the luck on this route and AA as well when they start their DUS service. It will be nice to see them back in DUS again.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-03-24 14:13:22 and read 5820 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
Almost all Americans visiting Germany (for leisure purposes) are headed to Berlin anyway

What source are you using for that information?

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-03-24 16:42:59 and read 5560 times.

Quoting cgnnrw (Reply 5):
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
Almost all Americans visiting Germany (for leisure purposes) are headed to Berlin anyway, and will probably appreciate the convenience of a nonstop option like this over a connection at CDG, EWR, FRA, JFK, LHR, etc.

Not sure where you get your information on American travelers but that is really going out on a limb.

I don't know if I'd say it's that much of a stretch, "almost all" may be an exaggeration but many many American leisure travelers to Germany at least have Berlin on their list of places to go.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: chexp77w
Posted 2013-03-27 08:15:08 and read 4925 times.

It was really awesome seeing it fly in , I caught it on video probably not the best but I hope everyone enjoys.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xftr6hdSmE0

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-27 10:44:24 and read 4740 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
This oneworld hub-hub route should do well. Almost all Americans visiting Germany (for leisure purposes) are headed to Berlin anyway, and will probably appreciate the convenience of a nonstop option like this over a connection at CDG, EWR, FRA, JFK, LHR, etc. Another feather in the cap for an increasingly impressive T5 lineup at ORD. On deck we have QR (starts April 10th), OS (resumes May 17th), and HU (starts September 3rd), not to mention new services by domestic carriers AA (DUS starts April 11th, PDX resumes June 12th), B6 (SJU starts November 20th), and UA (MOB starts April 9th, SJO starts April 13th, FAI and SNN start on June 6th). Then across town at MDW we have FL starting MBJ on April 14th, PUJ on April 19th, and MEM on August 11th, F9 starting TTN on April 8th, SY starting MSP on July 1st, and WN starting CLT and ROC on April 14th, TUL on April 15th, ICT on June 2nd, JAX on September 29th, and per a new thread GEG sometime in June as well! Chicago is really doing well in terms of air service these days!

  

Not to mention, service increases on LX (daily to 11 weekly) EI (daily to 11 weekly) and LO (daily to 10x weekly)

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-03-27 11:01:55 and read 4698 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
Almost all Americans visiting Germany (for leisure purposes) are headed to Berlin anyway,



The Rhine River region and Bavaria are the top destinations in Germany for Americans, not Berlin. FRA and MUC are much close to the Rhine River region and Bavaria than BER.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: HansaRostock
Posted 2013-03-27 11:22:58 and read 4637 times.

Quoting EricR (Reply 10):
The Rhine River region and Bavaria are the top destinations in Germany for Americans, not Berlin. FRA and MUC are much close to the Rhine River region and Bavaria than BER.

it's not about the one or the other but both. While visiting Germany lots of people have their 2-3 days in Berlin beside visiting the holy Bavaria or the Rhine region. Many Americans on a baltic-cruise do even take a 3hrs-journey by bus (oneway) from Rostock to visit Berlin for a couple of hours (for them Rostock is called "Berlin-Port" officially   ) So indeed I see a chance of people fyling to FRA/MUC/DUS inbound and returning from BER or v/v...

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: konrad
Posted 2013-03-27 11:51:33 and read 4555 times.

Back to the BER ORD service of Air Berlin: fares on KRK/WAW to ORD are bottom low, at times below $500 return. Trying to lure new customers or struggling to fill the cabin? Also, OS is entering the CEE to ORD market in mid-May. We'll see who survives.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-27 12:00:13 and read 4530 times.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
This oneworld hub-hub route should do well.

I just don't see how. There's pretty much zero business in BER, CHI has to pay business to stay in town, there's minimal ties between the two, minimal flow points beyond BER that are of any unique value, and nearly 300 seats. Never mind piling OS on top of AB offering the same, and likely better, city pairs. And then on top of that you have LX and LO adding capacity. I think ORDDUS/BER are going to be dumpster fires in no time.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: jreuschl
Posted 2013-03-27 12:03:38 and read 4517 times.

I am booked on AB for $699 RT in April, then I noticed that UA/LH were beating it at $620 RT! When I booked the AB flight, UA/LH were at $1100. They seem willing to match and then some.

Right now it looks like fares are $846 w taxes. Still not bad. They do jump up to $1162 in May-on

[Edited 2013-03-27 12:12:02]

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-27 13:35:25 and read 4377 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 13):
I just don't see how. There's pretty much zero business in BER, CHI has to pay business to stay in town, there's minimal ties between the two, minimal flow points beyond BER that are of any unique value, and nearly 300 seats. Never mind piling OS on top of AB offering the same, and likely better, city pairs. And then on top of that you have LX and LO adding capacity. I think ORDDUS/BER are going to be dumpster fires in no time.

While not a slam dunk, both of these two routes deserve to be tested out, as they are each hoped to be a shot in the arm, so to speak, to help boost airberlin's connections with OneWorld. airberlin's biggest challenge right now is to figure out a way to drive up unit revenues, and currently, OneWorld carriers have very small presences at BER and DUS. As such, the intent is to connect both of them with one of the larger domestic US OneWorld hubs that provides feed from codeshares and interlines. I'm hopeful that these routes will be viewed as an alternative option to flying OneWorld TATL between US and European city pairs that can avoid LHR.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: dazeflight
Posted 2013-03-28 02:56:03 and read 4086 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 13):
I just don't see how. There's pretty much zero business in BER, CHI has to pay business to stay in town, there's minimal ties between the two, minimal flow points beyond BER that are of any unique value, and nearly 300 seats. Never mind piling OS on top of AB offering the same, and likely better, city pairs. And then on top of that you have LX and LO adding capacity. I think ORDDUS/BER are going to be dumpster fires in no time.

You might want to take a lot at performance and pax origin of the other AB US-routes from Berlin. AB is quite succesfull in attracting Middle-, Eastern- and Northern European travellers connecting to these flights. Apart from that, more than 1 Mio. Pax each year from Western Poland use Berlin as their originating airport, AB might be able to capture a bit of that Poland-Chicago travel as well.

While Berlin is pretty weak economic whise relative to it's size, it's just plain wrong to claim that there's zero business based there. Additionally, Berlin is #4 in the world regarding conferences, behind Vienna, Barcelona and Paris and had an almost 20% raise in guest arrivals from the United States of America in 2012.

I have no doubts that this flight is here to stay.

[Edited 2013-03-28 02:57:22]

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-28 08:32:18 and read 3864 times.

Quoting dazeflight (Reply 16):
You might want to take a lot at performance and pax origin of the other AB US-routes from Berlin.

They're almost exclusively leisure and AB is roughing it, to put it extremely kindly.

Quoting dazeflight (Reply 16):
Apart from that, more than 1 Mio. Pax each year from Western Poland use Berlin as their originating airport, AB might be able to capture a bit of that Poland-Chicago travel as well.

All low yield, price sensitive traffic.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: chicawgo
Posted 2013-03-28 13:44:10 and read 3669 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 13):
CHI has to pay business to stay in town

This is just blatant nonsense.

First of all, cities providing incentives for businesses to stay/relocate there is very common everywhere. Additionally, virtually all of the new business to Chicago over the last couple years has been without ANY incentives (Motorola Mobility, GE Transportation just to name a couple).

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-28 14:34:21 and read 3601 times.

Quoting chicawgo (Reply 18):
Additionally, virtually all of the new business to Chicago over the last couple years has been without ANY incentives (Motorola Mobility, GE Transportation just to name a couple).

The business climate in Illinois is pretty grim, and many of the incentives doled out have been for companies to simply stay in IL, rather than attract new business. Motorola, as you mentioned, merely moved from the 'burbs to downtown, as did UA, which received a healthy sum to stay in IL.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-28 16:57:41 and read 3460 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 19):
The business climate in Illinois is pretty grim, and many of the incentives doled out have been for companies to simply stay in IL, rather than attract new business. Motorola, as you mentioned, merely moved from the 'burbs to downtown, as did UA, which received a healthy sum to stay in IL.

I was honestly waiting until how long it would take you to make a post related to the economic climate in Chicago. It took 19 responses. That's almost a new record!

i'm pretty sure if AB announced BER-IAH, you would be jumping for joy and painting a completely different story about Berlin.

Clearly, airlines are seeing business opportunities in Chicago that you cannot, and are flocking here to launch new service. The resentment factor has to stop.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 17):
hey're almost exclusively leisure and AB is roughing it, to put it extremely kindly.

I would argue that every airline in the EU is "roughing it" with the exception of the LCCs (VY, DY, FR and U2, to name a few). It has become virtually impossible for any of the major European carriers, aside from TK (do they even really count?) flying in the medium to long haul sector to generate consistent profits, and that includes a hybrid carrier like airberlin.

By no means are they in as dire of a situation as Iberia, Alitalia nor SAS, but yes, they do need to find a way to generate higher revenue streams, although they've just unveiled a new Business class product that should hopefully be a boon.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 19):
as did UA, which received a healthy sum to stay in IL.

Nonsense.

The terms of the merger were for United to remain United and be HQ in Chicago. Houston offered NOTHING in response.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-28 17:09:46 and read 3445 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):

i'm pretty sure if AB announced BER-IAH, you would be jumping for joy and painting a completely different story about Berlin.

No, BER is BER, no matter where you fly from in the US.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
I would argue that every airline in the EU is "roughing it"

There's roughing it, and then there's AB. Big difference.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
The terms of the merger were for United to remain United and be HQ in Chicago. Houston offered NOTHING in response.

IL/CHI offered a huge incentive for UA to stay--that is no secret. They did the same thing to entice many other companies to stay in town, and in several cases, just to move downtown from the suburbs.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
, and are flocking here to launch new service

It's a mixed bag at best. I'll bet a dollar these AB routes will flop, as will OS' umpteenth attempt at VIE. AF can't maintain year round service, and HU/QR are less than rational players and HU has already reduced 4>3/wk in advance of its SEP13 start.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: kngkyle
Posted 2013-03-29 04:48:36 and read 3232 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
IL/CHI offered a huge incentive for UA to stay--that is no secret. They did the same thing to entice many other companies to stay in town, and in several cases, just to move downtown from the suburbs.

Who here is arguing otherwise? It is common practice among cities and states to offer incentives to corporations to locate there. In the case of the UA merger, Houston decided not to play ball so Chicago got everything. You can dis Chicago for it all you want, but I'm sure they're laughing at you all the way to the bank.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
It's a mixed bag at best. I'll bet a dollar these AB routes will flop, as will OS' umpteenth attempt at VIE. AF can't maintain year round service, and HU/QR are less than rational players and HU has already reduced 4>3/wk in advance of its SEP13 start.

Maybe they will flop and maybe they wont. But the fact they are even trying shows they see Chicago as an important market to do business in. And with good reason: 10 million people in the metro, GDP as large as Paris and London, global financial center, and fastest growing downtown in the country.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: jcwr56
Posted 2013-03-29 05:55:54 and read 3164 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
, and are flocking here to launch new service

It's a mixed bag at best. I'll bet a dollar these AB routes will flop, as will OS' umpteenth attempt at VIE. AF can't maintain year round service, and HU/QR are less than rational players and HU has already reduced 4>3/wk in advance of its SEP13 start.



If you're going to bash Chicago, then lets include UA's expansion of RJ's from non precleared Canadian cities, their downgrades from 744 to 777's on the Chicago markets to Asia and Europe. Oh yes, UA's new Ireland service.

Lets talk LH's attempt to bring the 748i here.

Lets not forget PK's starting June 3rd.

EI's additional increase from DUB.

AA's announcement to start a South American non stop in 2014, their desire to move PEK to a later arrival in the afternoon to make it more competitive (which they will get) Their desire to start a 2nd daily MEX service.

VS restart with the A330 for the summer season.

HU's reduction is based on the 787 issue, operating a 346 or a 332 is not the right aircraft and they know it.

AF/DL are a JV, what does AF operating year around have to do with it? Paris is served by SkyTeam year around.

OZ going to daily starting in July

KX's keeping their GCM flight operating year around now.

ANA 2nd daily starting in June

B6 starting SJU service

Then you have the airlines and the city spending millions at ORD on making the Immigration and connecting process easier.

Shall I list what is taking place at MDW?

I agree, Chicago and Illinois have their heads up their behinds when it comes to certain business incentives and taxing mindset, but from the list of annoucements, it seems to most listed above, that doesn't matter.

[Edited 2013-03-29 06:05:56]

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: ripcordd
Posted 2013-03-29 06:12:55 and read 3134 times.

Also AA DUS service
Qtar service to DOH

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-29 07:00:44 and read 3126 times.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 22):
I'm sure they're laughing at you all the way to the bank.

Wait, who is laughing to the bank? Cuz it ain't Chicago, and I'm pretty sure it's not UA or AA either. WN might be making a little.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 22):
they see Chicago as an important market to do business in.

I doubt they even considered that; AB/AA see it as the next best way to connect two partners after NYC, since they're in the same alliance and have virtually no connectivity.

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 23):
If you're going to bash Chicago, then lets include UA's expansion of RJ's from non precleared Canadian cities, their downgrades from 744 to 777's on the Chicago markets to Asia and Europe. Oh yes, UA's new Ireland service.

UA has been steadily reducing ORD since the merger, in spite of all the churn. All the other things you mentioned still mean ORD is flat YOY in capacity.

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 23):
AF/DL are a JV, what does AF operating year around have to do with it?

It's not a good thing, by any means.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: chicawgo
Posted 2013-03-29 08:16:17 and read 3032 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 19):
The business climate in Illinois is pretty grim, and many of the incentives doled out have been for companies to simply stay in IL, rather than attract new business. Motorola, as you mentioned, merely moved from the 'burbs to downtown, as did UA, which received a healthy sum to stay in IL.

So what you did here is completely change your original claim which was that CHI needs to pay companies to stay. Now you change it to "IL/CHI!!" No one is claiming that the business climate in Illinois is good! But that's not what you said!!! Your comments implied that Chicago is desperate to keep business here and it's just blatantly false. As I explained, Chicago has won a lot of business recently without any incentives. And as to your discounting Motorola because it's moving from a suburb.... I think Libertyville and their tax income statements would beg to differ.

[Edited 2013-03-29 08:22:42]

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-29 08:23:48 and read 3050 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
There's roughing it, and then there's AB. Big difference.

Oh, so now you're spinning the story in a different way? As I clearly pointed out in my earlier post, AB's situation is nowhere near that of some of the other Euro big leagues that are on the verge of collapse. They have tight cost control and are leveraging partnerships in such a way that they have a clear plan that has good potential to stick.

Next time you excitedly start panting at the concept of SK starting IAH-SVG, like on those inane IAH threads, I'll be very amused to see how you'll be able to justify that one given that SAS is "roughing it" the worst out of all European carriers.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
IL/CHI offered a huge incentive for UA to stay--that is no secret. They did the same thing to entice many other companies to stay in town, and in several cases, just to move downtown from the suburbs.
Quoting kngkyle (Reply 22):
In the case of the UA merger, Houston decided not to play ball so Chicago got everything. You can dis Chicago for it all you want, but I'm sure they're laughing at you all the way to the bank.

  

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
It's a mixed bag at best. I'll bet a dollar these AB routes will flop, as will OS' umpteenth attempt at VIE. AF can't maintain year round service, and HU/QR are less than rational players and HU has already reduced 4>3/wk in advance of its SEP13 start.
Quoting kngkyle (Reply 22):
Maybe they will flop and maybe they wont. But the fact they are even trying shows they see Chicago as an important market to do business in. And with good reason: 10 million people in the metro, GDP as large as Paris and London, global financial center, and fastest growing downtown in the country.

Again,   . Couldn't have said it better than myself.

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 23):
ANA 2nd daily starting in June

This got postponed   But, due to 787 issues. Kind of like QR. NOT related to Chicago  
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 25):
UA has been steadily reducing ORD since the merger, in spite of all the churn. All the other things you mentioned still mean ORD is flat YOY in capacity.

Yes, and I don't know how many times I've had to explain this on these threads, but the newly merged UA had to optimize capacity among FOUR mid-continent hubs now as opposed to TWO prior. That resulted in market rationalization to drive up yields (we're still experiencing a slow business travel environment mind you) and excess seats to unprofitable markets have been removed.

Of course, you don't see everyone in ORD throwing fits about this. It's only the IAH people who seem to have little to no grasp on principles of revenue management. Case of the Texas-sized ego at play here.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 25):
It's not a good thing, by any means.

Why is it not a good thing?? AF dropped SEA, PHL and EWR as well. It's part of a JV agreement. Do you just not like it because you're not a fan of the Delta livery? What a silly statement.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-03-29 08:50:50 and read 2978 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 19):
UA, which received a healthy sum to stay in IL

It was Texas and Houston that didn't offer enough to try to keep them, Illinois didn't pay them tons. Very surprising since Texas is usually very business friendly and will be pro-active recently. They knew Houston would remain a hub but a HQ adds alot of value, they should have fought harder and offered a huge package to keep the UA/CO headquarters but they didn't they just watched it and sat there. Over time i think we will see less people working in the Continental building in Houston as when people quit/retire the jobs will be replaced in chicago or elsewhere. Big mistake Houston already has SO much empty office space downtown united will probably add even more emptyness in the next few years.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: LOWS
Posted 2013-03-29 09:01:45 and read 2956 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
OS' umpteenth attempt at VIE.

But their first attempt as a member of the Star++ JV, and much more deeply integrated into UA with an expanded codeshare.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-29 09:21:36 and read 2942 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 27):
As I clearly pointed out in my earlier post, AB's situation is nowhere near that of some of the other Euro big leagues that are on the verge of collapse

You've got to be kidding. AB's costs are coming down, but their revenue picture is a disaster, as is their network. The other EU carriers have access to high value revenue streams and network scope, while AB has a hub in PMI. AB is trying to focus its network on BER, essentially creating a new-ish hub in the EU, in a place that doesn't have considerable business demand. It's a bit like a US carrier spooling up a new hub in the midwest, or reactivating PIT. If you look at what AB is connecting North America to beyond BER/DUS, it's essentially the same things LO is flying nonstop, or one stop over OS/LO.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 27):
Next time you excitedly start panting at the concept of SK starting IAH-SVG,

I just double checked the SVG thread and I didn't say a thing. IAHSVG is certainly a big, high yield local market, but not big or high yield enough to support nonstop service on much of anything.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 27):
I don't know how many times I've had to explain this on these threads, but the newly merged UA had to optimize capacity among FOUR mid-continent hubs now as opposed to TWO prior

You seriously have to stop repeating this--there isn't a shred of data to support this argument. Pick your favorite: OAG, T100, whatever you want. Since the merger ORD/DEN/CLE have been declining in UA capacity and they still are. IAH, again since the merger is one of the few hubs to grow steadily--the other one being SFO. But then suddenly the IAH growth stopped; I bet you can never guess when! But seriously, drop this argument because the only "optimizing" was optimizing seats away from ORD/DEN/CLE to IAH, if anything.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 27):

Why is it not a good thing?? AF dropped SEA, PHL and EWR as well. It's part of a JV agreement. Do you just not like it because you're not a fan of the Delta livery?

It means AF can't support SEA/PHL/EWR/ORD with a huge hub on one end, even seasonally, which isn't a good sign. Fortunately they have a partner (DL) that has smaller and cheaper aircraft to backfill the flights, but no matter how "metal neutral" a JV is, it's always suboptimal to 'same metal'. It's fine as a stop gap measure, but it ultimately means that CDGSEA/EWR/PHL/ORD don't work well half of the year.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 28):
It was Texas and Houston that didn't offer enough to try to keep them, Illinois didn't pay them tons. Very surprising since Texas is usually very business friendly and will be pro-active recently.

Illinois also had friends in very high places.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: IrishAyes
Posted 2013-03-29 13:48:41 and read 2749 times.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 30):
The other EU carriers have access to high value revenue streams and network scope, while AB has a hub in PMI.

The problem is far more macro than that.

The EU carriers are literally running out of options to reduce costs without major backlash. The situation is so dire that Lufthansa is considering entering into the long-haul, low-cost realm because they've basically lost their revenue advantage to the Gulf Coast Carriers on certain long-haul markets. Imagine the sheer challenge it will be for Lufthansa to lower their CASKs by 30% in order to stay cost-competitive with EK, TK...heck, even SQ...in their Europe - APAC routes. Do you think that its labor forces (the most bloated piece of the cost structure) will take such shake-ups lightly?

And that's just one example. AF-KL, Iberia, BA, SAS, etc all in the same boat.

I'm not glamorizing Airberlin's revenue issues. I know that they're problematic and have acknowledged that. But, in the grand scheme of things, they arguably have a much more favorable outlook in terms of getting their house in order as long as they tap into new revenue streams. Creating a profitable short-and-long haul network is AB's plan to reach that point. If it fails, it fails. But they have to try first. You're entitled to believe what you want, but I think it's a worthwhile shot.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 30):
You seriously have to stop repeating this--there isn't a shred of data to support this argument. Pick your favorite: OAG, T100, whatever you want. Since the merger ORD/DEN/CLE have been declining in UA capacity and they still are. IAH, again since the merger is one of the few hubs to grow steadily--the other one being SFO. But then suddenly the IAH growth stopped; I bet you can never guess when! But seriously, drop this argument because the only "optimizing" was optimizing seats away from ORD/DEN/CLE to IAH, if anything.

I had to sift through your verbiage several times to process this claim. So you're saying that IAH grew at the expense of the others, before the FIS drama at HOU, then stopped, and United continues to par down its network even though Houston is the real winning hub ENTITLED to capacity growth and UA is penalizing it out of spite.

That has to be one of the most illogical arguments I've ever read on this thread (unless I misunderstood, in which case, I apologize).

Around the time of the FIS decision, especially the move to pull down IAH, United forecast a softening economy heading into 2013, and essentially knew revenues would remain flat YoY. As such, capacity guidance became necessary and United announced that there would be a YoY ASM decline ranging between 2-3%, up from 1-2% originally.

Aside from economic uncertainty, the merger integration disaster basically drove away a SEVERE chunk of high-revenue traffic. This continued over the summer as the cross-fleeting mishap resulted in poor OTP, siphoning MORE lucrative traffic away from United. The loss of these customers is severely underplayed by United and the fallout continues to be magnified by Wall Street during earnings calls, as it continues to plague United today.

The fact is, the Houston hub was bloated. Much more so than DEN, CLE, ORD, SFO and IAD. It just so happened that all of these events ran together and United wasted its time with political posturing knowing full well that the IAH cuts were probably imminent regardless of the outcome at HOU. UA still has an uphill battle to climb, but believe you me, eventually, IAH will see growth restored ASSUMING United can get its cards in order.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 30):
It means AF can't support SEA/PHL/EWR/ORD with a huge hub on one end, even seasonally, which isn't a good sign. Fortunately they have a partner (DL) that has smaller and cheaper aircraft to backfill the flights, but no matter how "metal neutral" a JV is, it's always suboptimal to 'same metal'. It's fine as a stop gap measure, but it ultimately means that CDGSEA/EWR/PHL/ORD don't work well half of the year.

No, they could not with AF's cost structure. Plain and simple. Throw in the Eurozone crises and its basically unsustainable in present times. But rather than eliminate service altogether, it's a medium-term fix that allows the carrier to remain present in the market without complete withdrawal.

TATL flights these days are not printing money. The shake-ups are painful, yet necessary components to help airlines maintain profitability.

Topic: RE: Air Berlin Inaugural TXL-ORD
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2013-03-29 14:38:43 and read 2677 times.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 31):
So you're saying that IAH grew at the expense of the others, before the FIS drama at HOU, then stopped

IAH was growing, ORD/DEN/CLE were not, period. SFO/LAX were also growing, but that's another story. So this "they were rebalancing the network away from IAH" argument is not supported by a single fact. The only rebalancing was taking capacity out of CLE/ORD/DEN and adding capacity to IAH, or at a minimum, keeping it flat. Check T100 seats since OCT10--you'll see ORD/DEN seats sailing toward the floor.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 31):

The fact is, the Houston hub was bloated.

Not based on any data whatsoever. If it was bloated why would they grow it while simultaneously reduce DEN/CLE/ORD when they are some of if not the highest LF hubs in the system? I know it's a popular meme on flyertalk, but this argument is so devoid of evidence it should be on snopes.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 31):
But rather than eliminate service altogether, it's a medium-term fix that allows the carrier to remain present in the market without complete withdrawal.

Sounds pretty much identical to what I said.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 31):
The problem is far more macro than that.

I think it's pretty crystal clear--AB is trying to create another network carrier in Europe, which is the right decision on the revenue side, but in a hub where I don't think they'll get much traction. It's like bringing TW back, no matter how low the costs are, it's going to be very tough.


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