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Topic: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: ely747
Posted 2013-04-02 14:52:43 and read 8976 times.

The article claims that THY have lost interest, who else could be ready to invest then ?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...rs-way-for-disposal-of-lot-airline

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: AirCanadaA330
Posted 2013-04-02 15:13:57 and read 8870 times.

I thought they were already trying to sell off LOT?

I would think LH would be interested, but I think they might not have the stomach for it

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: ely747
Posted 2013-04-02 15:27:01 and read 8785 times.

I was thinking about LH too but not sure if they are in good condition these days either. LOT has got some valuable assets like LHR, JFK and ORD slots. Not long ago there was a story about significant reduction of Embraer fleet which raises questions on sustainability of airline's business model. The Polish carier is the only one in central Europe currently operating TATL however I dare say it's mostly VFR.

[Edited 2013-04-02 15:27:31]

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-04-02 16:00:35 and read 8618 times.

TK decided to pass on LOT and broke off discussions last June.

Turkish Airlines will not invest in LOT Polish Airlines
http://atwonline.com/news/turkish-ai...ill-not-invest-lot-polish-airlines

As they said: "the acquisition would not bring the medium- to long-term growth initially envisioned or give an improved and sustainable competitive advantage."

For other airlines -- Seems everyone window shops, and then walks away.

SAS And BA To Buy LOT (by TR Oct 3 2001 in Civil Aviation)
LH In Talks With LOT Polish Airlines (by Jiml1126 Dec 20 2001 in Civil Aviation)
LOT To Be Bought By Lufthansa? (by Squirrel83 May 5 2005 in Civil Aviation)
AF/KLM Enters Bid To Buy LOT (by Konrad Jan 20 2010 in Civil Aviation)

=

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-04-02 16:11:13 and read 8570 times.

Quoting ely747 (Reply 2):
JFK and ORD slots.

ORD airport no longer is slot controlled as of October 2010, and JFK slot is worthless as it cannot be sold/leased by foreign carriers.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: AirCanadaA330
Posted 2013-04-02 16:33:02 and read 8453 times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
JFK slot is worthless as it cannot be sold/leased by foreign carriers.

why not?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):

For other airlines -- Seems everyone window shops, and then walks away.

SAS And BA To Buy LOT (by TR Oct 3 2001 in Civil Aviation)
LH In Talks With LOT Polish Airlines (by Jiml1126 Dec 20 2001 in Civil Aviation)
LOT To Be Bought By Lufthansa? (by Squirrel83 May 5 2005 in Civil Aviation)
AF/KLM Enters Bid To Buy LOT (by Konrad Jan 20 2010 in Civil Aviation)

well if no one wants LOT, I'll take it....  

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: krisyyz
Posted 2013-04-02 16:52:41 and read 8384 times.

Quoting ely747 (Thread starter):
who else could be ready to invest then ?

Maybe Boris Abramovich? He seems to have an interest in Eastern European Airlines, and quite the track record   

My guess would be an investor or airline from Asia, LH is still a possibility but I'm not convinced that deal would go through.

I've often suggested an SAS kind of alliance for eastern-central Europe, with hubs in WAW, PRG and BUD. Given the current economic climate in Europe, I really don't think even a large country like Poland can sustain a profitable national airline. LH/LX/OS, KL/AF and BA/IB are really hard to compete against on the medium to long haul full service market.

Just my thoughts,

KrisYYZ

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: MCOflyer
Posted 2013-04-02 17:33:46 and read 8259 times.

My guess is LH. They seem to do well turning non-profitable airlines into money making ones.

KH

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: KD5MDK
Posted 2013-04-02 23:21:10 and read 7786 times.

IAG  

Just to mess with LH and get some Eastern European coverage. Hedge for when AB closes.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: AF185
Posted 2013-04-02 23:36:40 and read 7736 times.

LH seems like the ideal candidate (*A, proximity of the market, Door to Eastern Europe), however I think this is really open and we may have surprises in this bid.

With the current difficulties in Europe, we see:

> IAG struggling in restructuring IB, biding for Vueling
> AF-KL having a deep short/medium haul re-organization, trying to cut costs and initiating cooperation with EY
> LH trying to cut costs, considering setting up a long haul low cost operation

All 3 major European Airline Groups already have a lot on their plate, not sure bringing another loss making airline would help them in the current environment, unless LOT is sold for an attractive price

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: smbukas
Posted 2013-04-03 00:01:06 and read 7661 times.

I do not see any point for LH from network perspective. Door to Eastern Europe has zero value - LH flies where they wants and LOT do not have any destination LH do not operate.

From other perspective LH anyway has a strong market share in Polish market: 4x daily FRA-WAW on LH metal, 3x daily MUC-WAW on LH metal, 3x daily FRA-KRK on LH metal, etc., etc. Even if LOT leave a Star Alliance and to drop all LH codeshares, it is very small loss for LH as they will have an opportunity to increase capacity where they wants.

LH also operate all the Eastern Europe destinations where LOT is strong - VNO, BUD, BUC, PRG, etc. And, from network perspective, if LOT would leave long haul LH could become even happier, as most of the passengers choose LH as alternative option to ORD, JFK, etc.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: LOWS
Posted 2013-04-03 00:26:35 and read 7592 times.

LH already has excellent east European coverage through itself, and also OS (who owns a share of, and codeshares with PS). In addition to the current restructuring, the planned future purchase of SN and OS' problems, why would they want another airline?

In addition, I can hardly imagine the European Commission being happy with LH owning or cooperating with almost every airline that borders Germany or very nearly does (OS, LX, SK, SN, LO, EN...).

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: Danny
Posted 2013-04-03 01:03:32 and read 7498 times.

LH does not need LO for anything. They fly directly from FRA/MUC/DUS to almost all of polish airports and have already taken over most of premium customers.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: DIJKKIJK
Posted 2013-04-03 04:50:30 and read 7129 times.

One of the Gulf biggies may definitely be interested. EY perhaps? They are on an acquisition spree right now.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: JU068
Posted 2013-04-03 05:44:44 and read 6600 times.

Unfortunately for Lot, Poland is a predominantly low-yielding market dominated by lowcost carriers. The only way I can see them surviving is by copying what Lufthansa was forced to do.
Why don't they change their European operations to model a lowcost carrier (or at least something close to it) while their intercontinental flights keep on operating as Lot.

Unfortunately I do not see anyone buying them.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: konrad
Posted 2013-04-03 05:57:00 and read 6457 times.

Quoting JU068 (Reply 14):
Why don't they change their European operations to model a lowcost carrier (or at least something close to it) while their intercontinental flights keep on operating as Lot.

They do not have the right aircraft to switch to the lowcost model. With a E70, E75 and E95 fleet there is no way to compete with the 320/738 carriers. Plus, the DH4s of EuroLOT are also kind of odd, doing pretty much the same routes as the Embraers. With the Embraers, they might do an Air Dolomiti model if anyone wants them to feed some hubs.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: Polot
Posted 2013-04-03 06:05:21 and read 6370 times.

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 7):
My guess is LH. They seem to do well turning non-profitable airlines into money making ones.

Actually LH's record is spotty at best. OS is still unprofitable, SN (who admittedly LH does not fully own) is not profitable, they weren't able to make BMI work, they were unable to make LH Italia work. LX was truly a success story, which has unfortunately gave many people the impression that LH is the master at turning airlines around.

As much as I would hate to see them go, only a fool would touch LOT.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: delta777jet
Posted 2013-04-03 06:06:42 and read 6352 times.

LOT can't be sold, mainly because of the reasons mbukas was mentioning.
In LOT eyes Lufthansa is a strong partner on side, of which they are proud of. May be too proud.....
It seems that many inside LOT did not understood the reality yet, that Lufthansa is very strong in Polish market. The frequent flyer program of LOT is called Lufthansa Miles & More. In case LOT will be sold, LOT would also loose all their frequent flyers to Lufthansa because they will stay inside the Lufthansa Miles & More program and probably LOT would loose all the money value created in Lufthansa Miles & More as well.

To take LH Miles & More for their own frequent traveller programme was probably the worse decision they could have made years ago, as this will be the main problem to sell LOT to any other airline. Also they would need to purchase every mile credited into the Miles & More program, which for sure is also a pain for a cash strapped airline.

For Lufthansa the best is that LOT continues in the same way as they did, because they just bringing a lot of profit to Lufthansa without to have any headache for the entire Polish market.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: JU068
Posted 2013-04-03 06:43:20 and read 6020 times.

Quoting konrad (Reply 15):

From what I read they are withdrawing a whole bunch of Embraer jets and they will be introducing Boeing aircraft, B737-800, into their fleet.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: ely747
Posted 2013-04-03 07:08:18 and read 5735 times.

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 8):

Doubt that yields in that part of Europe are of any interest to IAG.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: ORDJOE
Posted 2013-04-03 07:26:56 and read 5531 times.

Too bad LOT is doing so bad, they actually run a decent product in the sky, and with that 787 mess. As an armchair CEO they need to focus on any business heavy routes they have. Poland while lacking an economy of the likes of Germany or Swisszertland still is decent sized and growing, so there has to be a decent amount of business traffic. They need to focus on routes like that and not compete against Wizz air or the like for the bottom feeding VFR crowd.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: Redd
Posted 2013-04-03 13:06:01 and read 3062 times.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 6):
He seems to have an interest in Eastern European Airlines,

Poland is not in Eastern Europe....

Quoting JU068 (Reply 14):
Unfortunately for Lot, Poland is a predominantly low-yielding market dominated by lowcost carriers.

Business traffic is on a steady rise, nothing crazy but it's growing.

Quoting JU068 (Reply 14):
Why don't they change their European operations to model a lowcost carrier (or at least something close to it) while their intercontinental flights keep on operating as Lot.

I've been wondering the same thing. With Ryanair operating out of WAW at the moment due to the closure of Modlin they have to be hurting LOT's business. The fact is that you can get VERY cheap tickets on other airlines to just about anywhere in Europe on LLCs and LOT's tickets are usually at least twice as expensive. I'm no expert in the matter but I think LLC model for LOT in Europe seems like a good idea.

[Edited 2013-04-03 13:07:53]

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: krisyyz
Posted 2013-04-03 15:10:05 and read 2299 times.

Quoting Redd (Reply 21):
Poland is not in Eastern Europe....



I know, my relatives in Hungary hate being refered to as living in Eastern Europe as well. But according to the UN, Poland is in Eastern Europe.

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm

KrisYYZ

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: ely747
Posted 2013-04-03 16:45:49 and read 2159 times.

Quoting Redd (Reply 21):

On the political map all countries east of german border are referred to as Eastern Europe

Geographically AT, SK, CZ, PL, HU and SLO are all in Central Europe. For instance Vienna is further to the east than Prague.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-04-03 16:55:17 and read 2140 times.

Quoting AirCanadaA330 (Reply 5):
why not?

Slots exemptions are not owned by the foreign airlines, essentially only being borrowed from the FAA.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: nomorerjs
Posted 2013-04-03 16:57:14 and read 2208 times.

Maybe the People's Republic of Chicago / Illinois will buy LOT. Seems like the type of thing Illinois tax-payers are on the hook for.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: type-rated
Posted 2013-04-03 22:12:50 and read 2054 times.

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 25):
Maybe the People's Republic of Chicago / Illinois will buy LOT. Seems like the type of thing Illinois tax-payers are on the hook for.

Chicago certainly has a large enough Polish population. The largest in the U.S. if I am not mistaken and LOT seemed to be doing well with their flights out of ORD.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: JU068
Posted 2013-04-03 23:27:15 and read 1988 times.

Quoting Redd (Reply 21):
Business traffic is on a steady rise, nothing crazy but it's growing.

But I guess another problem is that this business traffic is not only generated by Warsaw, since Poland is very decentralized. This makes Lot's life so much more difficult.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: Paolo92
Posted 2013-04-04 03:25:30 and read 1849 times.


As per Lufthansa's CFO Simone Menne, if LOT goes bust, they'll "expand" into Poland (and would do the same respectively with SAS).
Although I wonder if this expansion would include taking over the liquidated airline and/or creating a LH Poland/Scandinavia, or simply allocating some aircraft to the respective hubs (WAW, etc...) expanding 4U.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: bennett123
Posted 2013-04-04 04:10:47 and read 1777 times.

http://www.airfleets.net/ageflotte/LOT%20Polish%20Airlines.htm

Even given that the B767 will go when they finally get the B787 back into service, it is noteable that they have so few aircraft in the A320/B737 size, and that they will need replacement sooner rather than later.

Unless they regard the E195 as a suitable substitute, they will need some A320/B737, (probably the latter) soon.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: smbukas
Posted 2013-04-04 04:21:51 and read 1761 times.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 29):
Unless they regard the E195 as a suitable substitute, they will need some A320/B737, (probably the latter) soon.

If they are out of charter business I do not see why they need bigger aircraft. AFAIK, their fleet strategy is to have E-Jets, 787 and subcontract turboprops from Eurolot. WAW is almost in the middle of Europe so they are able to cover all the European business destinations. Business traffic needs frequency, so E-Jet should enable them to operate good frequency and frequency might be the only argument to choose LOT instead of Ryanair or Wizz Air.

Topic: RE: Polish Gov To Sell LOT
Username: JU068
Posted 2013-04-04 04:22:22 and read 1761 times.

Quoting Paolo92 (Reply 28):

I guess this could be a message to the Polish government just in case the privatization fails. If they do step in after Lot's failure then I guess it would be with Germanwings.


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