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Topic: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: HAL
Posted 2013-04-03 15:34:58 and read 14996 times.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/s?acti...ogin&f=y&id=201188191&id=201188191

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/b...iant-to-scale-back-flights-to.html

Allegiant temporarily halts Hawaii flights from seven of its nine gateway cities.

Probably related to the ETOPS maintenance issues it had a couple of weeks ago on its 757's.

HAL

[Edited 2013-04-03 15:36:46]

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: stlgph
Posted 2013-04-03 15:48:27 and read 14846 times.

Or because the market just drops off.
Been tempted to because I was scouting out some fares and I can get out there all the way from JFK in September or October with airfare and 3 nights hotel for $900.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: HiFlyerAS
Posted 2013-04-03 15:52:25 and read 14775 times.

So much for their Hawaii experiment. This could not have been "planned" or they wouldn't have opened a crew base in HNL. I feel bad for all the crew that moved to Hawaii just a few months ago.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: EricR
Posted 2013-04-03 15:57:21 and read 14712 times.

The Phoenix Business Journal indicates the suspension is seasonal only. Not sure if G4 is stating this under the guise of operational issues with its 75's, but the suspension does coincide with a seasonal drop off in demand.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/m...-air-will-slow-hawaii-flights.html

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: stlgph
Posted 2013-04-03 15:58:16 and read 14675 times.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 2):

They've pulled down flights from other bases before because of seasonal demand.
I remember when the first year when they basically all but stopped St Petersburg completely and a lot of people were calling it a failure on here. Look where it is now.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2013-04-03 15:59:16 and read 14676 times.

G4 has been saying for weeks that they would start doing seasonal suspensions in Hawaii, several of us have posted that info on other threads for some time now.

Allegiant found most of their route bookings were much lower than expected during low seasons and much higher than expected in high seasons.

What I have heard is they are currently determining which specific months they will operate each Hawaii route in the future. Probably for most a schedule of Spring Break/Summer/end of year holidays with the actual number of weeks in each period to still be determined.

But it raises the question of where the 757s will operate during the low season in Hawaii.

[Edited 2013-04-03 15:59:56]

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: UA2162
Posted 2013-04-03 16:01:53 and read 14641 times.

Their whole Hawaii experiment has been a fiasco.

They have a terrible reputation with the locals here. They have almost completely destroyed their reputation in a very short time.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: stlgph
Posted 2013-04-03 16:09:37 and read 14533 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 5):
But it raises the question of where the 757s will operate during the low season in Hawaii.

college football fan charters!  

......why not?

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: bobloblaw
Posted 2013-04-03 16:46:57 and read 14257 times.

Your title is misleading. It sounds like G4 has suspended Hawaii already. The cut back date is Aug 14th. The titles in your links are not misleading indicating the cut backs in are in the FUTURE.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: LAXintl
Posted 2013-04-03 16:59:05 and read 14118 times.

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 6):
They have a terrible reputation with the locals here. They have almost completely destroyed their reputation in a very short time.

Don't think that really matters much in the larger scheme of things. G4 has over and over said their Hawaii flying is to bring people TO Hawaii, not from.
They really don't make much money carrying people to their mainland markets as the flying and the hotel, car rental and tour tie ins are focused on people going to Hawaii.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: airportugal310
Posted 2013-04-03 17:28:49 and read 13856 times.

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 6):

Their whole Hawaii experiment has been a fiasco.

They have a terrible reputation with the locals here. They have almost completely destroyed their reputation in a very short time.

It really has, and anybody on here saying otherwise is just being naive.

They aren't the only ones on the islands to have a similar reputation, however.

I don't expect those "seasonal" flights to be back. Especially as hotel rates get more and more expensive and occupancy levels reach record highs (as they have), Allegiant would have to work harder and harder to fill rooms at higher rates. Unlike some other locations they fly, resources on island are finite.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-04-03 17:33:17 and read 13799 times.

Does no one even bother reading links when they are provided? Geesh people.

From link 2 - http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/b...iant-to-scale-back-flights-to.html

Quote:
The newspaper reports Allegiant's (Nasdaq: ALGT) flights from Honolulu to Las Vegas and from Maui and Honolulu to Bellingham, Wash., will not be affected by the change, which an Allegiant spokeswoman called a "seasonal hiatus" during a period of reduced demand.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-04-03 17:59:00 and read 13572 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 11):
Does no one even bother reading links when they are provided? Geesh people.

And do you believe everything a spokesperson says? Geesh. What do you expect them to say? AS is beating our pants off; or we're having issues with our 757s; or we have a bad reputation among travelers; or we misread the market? (If there were other reasons; I'm just listing hypothetical examples to illustrate my point.)

What do you think they are going to say? I don't know what the real reason is for the suspensions, or if what the spokesperson said is exactly correct, but it's reasonable for others on A.net to speculate on the reasons.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: YNGguins
Posted 2013-04-03 18:18:03 and read 13388 times.

Call me a doubter... I don't think we will see Hawaii with Allegiant again. I heard through the grapevine this was not working out for them about a month back.

Back to the bread and butter.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: HiFlyerAS
Posted 2013-04-03 18:22:01 and read 13364 times.

The only reason BLI-OGG, HNL survives is the large catchment for BLI. You have lots of Canadian travelers looking to save $100+ per person over what they'd pay for airfare out of YVR to Hawaii. If they can't succeed in that market then they might as well drop Hawaii all together.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: 777fan
Posted 2013-04-03 18:38:37 and read 13232 times.

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 6):
They have a terrible reputation with the locals here. They have almost completely destroyed their reputation in a very short time.
Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 10):
They aren't the only ones on the islands to have a similar reputation, however.

Oh man, here we go again. Do tell, please, although I have a sneaking suspicion this will turn into a, "they didn't make an effort to appeal to locals," or, "their crews are all from the mainland and don't understand the market."

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 12):
What do you think they are going to say? I don't know what the real reason is for the suspensions, or if what the spokesperson said is exactly correct, but it's reasonable for others on A.net to speculate on the reasons.

I'd guess the spokesperson's comments were based partly on all of the issues you mentioned, as they - along with the drop in demand - contributed to their decision to suspend service.

777fan

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-04-03 18:40:24 and read 13210 times.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 14):
The only reason BLI-OGG, HNL survives is the large catchment for BLI. You have lots of Canadian travelers looking to save $100+ per person over what they'd pay for airfare out of YVR to Hawaii. If they can't succeed in that market then they might as well drop Hawaii all together.

How are G4 and AS doing in the BLI-Hawaii market? Seems like AS was doing well in the market. Has G4 eroded their market share or is there enough demand to be profitable for each?

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: LV
Posted 2013-04-03 18:47:45 and read 13149 times.

So, what do you do with all the 757's now?

Everyone mentions the point was to bring traffic to Hawaii but I wonder how much of the traffic on the HNL-LAS route is starting on the island and heading to Vegas? We all know Hawaiians love Vegas  

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2013-04-03 19:55:34 and read 12787 times.

The Santa Maria airport manager was quoted last week as saying, ""Allegiant has made mention to us that Hawaii might be a little bit more seasonal than expected", says Santa Maria Airport General Manager Chris Hastert, "they are currently reviewing which months of the year they want to fly to Hawaii, it could be year round but it looks like it could be more seasonal."
http://www.kcoy.com/story/21812753/a...ound-santa-maria-to-hawaii-flights

Given that many other Allegiant routes are seasonal I take the temporary suspension statement as probably the truth over anything else.

But we will see what the reality is when Allegiant extends its booking window thru the end of the year.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-04-03 20:17:34 and read 12643 times.

I think there is room for G4 in Hawaii. I do not think they'll completely leave the market. Some of their flights will not have mainline competition such as: Fresno, Eugene, Stockton, and Santa Maria.

Is anyone surprised those routes are seasonal? Of those routes, I would guess Santa Maria might have the least chance of restart (it was suspended earlier... per):
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/b...iant-to-scale-back-flights-to.html

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 8):

Your title is misleading.

I agree. It should be "G4 suspending Hawaii flights August"

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 12):
AS is beating our pants off;

What will they do when WN enters the market? I think G4 will play a seasonal role.

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 10):
Especially as hotel rates get more and more expensive

You're kidding, right? During the bubble I Pricelined hotels on 3 of the Islands. G4 is a better deal for 'failing hotels' than Priceline. Hawaii isn't that constrained of a market. Worse case, they get into the weekly condo rental market.

“The assumption people will come here and we’ll take more of their money hasn’t happened for 20 years,” Brewbaker said.

When adjusted for inflation, tourist spending is declining. Last year’s $14.3 billion in visitor spending brought less money to the state than tourism did in 1989, when $17 billion marked the peak of adjusted spending, Brewbaker said.

http://skift.com/2013/03/11/hawaii-t...ading-to-crisis-in-hotel-capacity/

In other words, people want lower cost vacations.

Hawaii needs to grow as those I know who spend more on Vacations are much more likely to fly to Asia, Europe, or Africa. The reality is the tourism market has *far* more opportunities than a decade ago. e.g., How many individuals did you know who own property in Costa Rica a decade ago? Now its more common.

While this is a 'doubting Thomas' article, it notes over a million USA+Canadian tourists now go there.
http://www.costaricantimes.com/2012-...ta-rica-tourism-numbers-real/13000

Limiting tourism to Hawaii (limiting hotel growth) is just pushing tourists elsewhere. G4 has a niche. They'll fill it. Its small (most of their routes were 1 or 2 times per week), but a viable niche for G4.

I'm personally amazed at the reaction to G4 in Hawaii on this board. They had 13 weekly frequencies to Hawaii as per prior discussion:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...ral_aviation/print.main?id=5490992

In that prior thread I disussed G4's seasonal adaptability. While they are learning the market, they shall and variable demand is something G4 is unusually good at.   


Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: ASFlyer
Posted 2013-04-03 20:48:37 and read 12450 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 16):
How are G4 and AS doing in the BLI-Hawaii market? Seems like AS was doing well in the market. Has G4 eroded their market share or is there enough demand to be profitable for each?

I've heard that BLI is one of AS' least profitable markets for Hawaii. They stick with it to maintain their foothold in the Northwest.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-04-03 21:09:45 and read 12316 times.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 20):
I've heard that BLI is one of AS' least profitable markets for Hawaii. They stick with it to maintain their foothold in the Northwest.

That's too bad. How about AS's SJC-Hawaii flights? Do those do well?

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: whatusaid
Posted 2013-04-03 21:12:07 and read 12287 times.

Run the T100's and you'll understand the seasonality in the G4 markets. Consider FAT-HNL: In July, FAT launched 1X a week with a LF of 97%. Sept - November averaged only 61%. December, with 2X weekly, they generated a 71% LF. In terms of numbers, December was their best month, with 1603 pax originating in Fresno. G4 is finding they can easily fill airplanes over the holidays and summer, but we don't know the mix between air only and the package business. But, the wide swings in numbers are pretty much in line with what's being said by corporate.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: airportugal310
Posted 2013-04-03 22:27:21 and read 11969 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
You're kidding, right? During the bubble I Pricelined hotels on 3 of the Islands. G4 is a better deal for 'failing hotels' than Priceline. Hawaii isn't that constrained of a market. Worse case, they get into the weekly condo rental market.

Listen...I'm not going to say you are wrong/right (based on some articles you posted and some Priceline seach) and I am not going to say I'm wrong (or right!).

...but I work in finance for the islands flagship carrier in the finance department which = forecasting for the future. I know you know what that means so there is no need to explain more. Therefore, I "do not kid".  

All I am saying is that in THE FUTURE (4-5 years?) down the line the landscape is going to change dramatically. Why? There is opposition from various points on construction of new hotels, which means that few if any will be built. If you think that the rental condo market is going to save the day, then we can agree to disagree.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 20):
I've heard that BLI is one of AS' least profitable markets for Hawaii. They stick with it to maintain their foothold in the Northwest.

That would surprise me a little. So much talk on these boards on how the Canadians run over the board to evade airport taxation. Seems the demand would be there...

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-04-03 22:46:35 and read 11762 times.

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 23):
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 20):I've heard that BLI is one of AS' least profitable markets for Hawaii. They stick with it to maintain their foothold in the Northwest.
That would surprise me a little. So much talk on these boards on how the Canadians run over the board to evade airport taxation. Seems the demand would be there...

No one said demand wasn't there. That doesn't mean it makes money though. For the trouble of driving to BLI, crossing the border with sometimes lengthy delays, and with G4 providing a low cost competitive alternative, AS is probably struggling to raise fares to any degree.

-Dave

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: airportugal310
Posted 2013-04-03 22:54:56 and read 11969 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):

Fair enough. I suppose AS would have brand loyalty to some degree (so maybe getting away with charging a little extra) but even I know that's a slippery slope.  

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-04-03 23:00:20 and read 11918 times.

The next question might be "Will be see A321's landing in BLI at some point?"  

-Dave

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: cslusarc
Posted 2013-04-04 00:05:33 and read 11457 times.

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 23):
So much talk on these boards on how the Canadians run over the board to evade airport taxation.

Its not really airport taxation, but customs and immigration inspection taxes on transborder flight between Canada and the US.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-04-04 03:40:17 and read 10332 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 26):
The next question might be "Will be see A321's landing in BLI at some point?"

Never say never (wait there is some J.B. thing in there) But I doubt it. HA has stated that the 321's would be for OGG/LIH/KOA type flights to currently served mainland destinations, and less about expanding their network.

And if the yields are as low as is being stated here in this thread, I doubt HA would want to join the party. If HA wants to go after the B.C. Canadian traveler, they will start service to YVR, they are not going to play with G4 or AS on a odd man out route. If AS is having a hard time filling their flight, HA would have an even harder time.

Quoting LV (Reply 17):
So, what do you do with all the 757's now?

Since these 757's are etops, it would be nice to see them used for something overwater, but if G4 can't get Hawaii to work, they won't do anything else much better. Trans-con flights will be the fate of these birds from AZA & LAS.

Quoting HAL (Thread starter):
Allegiant temporarily halts Hawaii flights from seven of its nine gateway cities

This was their big mistake, too many unserved stations were opened just to facilitate a 1-2 x weekly 757 from HNL. GEG/BOI are examples. I think they should have tested the market before expanding to so many markets.

I wonder (even though G4's operation is very small to Hawaii) if WN may see this as 1 competitor down, and put some energy into starting their own Hawaii flights?

Quoting stlgph (Reply 1):
Been tempted to because I was scouting out some fares and I can get out there all the way from JFK in September or October with airfare and 3 nights hotel for $900

I just paid just under $600 for air only PDX-KOA, OGG-PDX for the last two weeks in October, so that is a good deal.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 2):
So much for their Hawaii experiment. This could not have been "planned" or they wouldn't have opened a crew base in HNL. I feel bad for all the crew that moved to Hawaii just a few months ago

It is too bad, I always wish a carrier well when embarking in a new direction, I think G4 does look to the Hawaii origin market to fill planes to LAS, this route is staying, so obviously the locals are not the issue, it's the mainlanders going on their Hawaiian vacations, based upon the cities being seasonally suspended.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-04-04 05:58:10 and read 9023 times.

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 23):
...but I work in finance for the islands flagship carrier in the finance department which = forecasting for the future.

Fair enough, but how does that impact G4's 13 weekly flights to Hawaii? The flagship carrier moves more people to Hawaii from LAX than G4 does from its whole network. G4 only needs about 1300 hotel rooms to fill its flights. The flagship carrier needs over ten thousand. Heck, HA with flights 1,3, and 9 from LAX-HNL alone move more people per week than G4 does to Hawaii. That 21 fligths/week (I assume they are all daily) that move just under twice the people.

I was also thinking about cruises. If hotels in Hawaii become that precious, G4 will work with a cruise line. One ship could hold G4's weekly passenger load to Hawaii, easy...   

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 23):
There is opposition from various points on construction of new hotels, which means that few if any will be built. If you think that the rental condo market is going to save the day, then we can agree to disagree.

There we can agree to disagree. If Hawaii doesn't build hotels, the tourists must go elsewhere. I personally would like to see Hawaii grow, in particular on the 'big Island.' But after seeing the construction during the boom, I think there will be condos available for rent.  
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 26):
The next question might be "Will be see A321's landing in BLI at some point?"

Excluding LAX, G4 mostly went for low frequency destinations to Hawaii. HA's model is for daily flights. Will they alter their model?

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: HiFlyerAS
Posted 2013-04-04 06:35:16 and read 8535 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 21):
That's too bad. How about AS's SJC-Hawaii flights? Do those do well?

AS doesn't break down RASM or LF by market but I've venture to guess that Bay Area-Hawaii might not do quite as well as SEA-Hawaii. AS can do pretty much anything out of SEA. New service out of CA to the East Coast and Hawaii might take a little longer to catch on or to need less stimulation in the way of fare sales.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-04-04 06:40:18 and read 8445 times.

I found a 2010 post on seats per day, for a Sunday, to Hawaii.

G4 had at the peak ~2600 seats per week on their 13 weekly flights.


There were 31 flights/day from LAX to Hawaii in 2010! Assuming Sunday isn't a busy day (unlikely), that is 217 flights per week with an average seat count at about G4's level.

91 flights/week from San Francisco
77 from Seattle
56 from PHX
42 from YVR
21 from Chicago (I assume ORD)
28 from PDX (smaller aircraft)
21 from LAS (pre G4)
21 from DFW
21 from OAK
14 from DEN
14 from IAH
14 from SAC
14 from SAN
14 from San Jose
14 from SNA

and another 42 flights/week from other cities/airports before G4 flew to Hawaii.

http://www.farecompare.com/travel-ad...-visit-hawaii-when-to-fly-and-buy/

So why so much fuss over G4?

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-04-04 07:32:46 and read 7734 times.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 30):
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 21):
That's too bad. How about AS's SJC-Hawaii flights? Do those do well?

AS doesn't break down RASM or LF by market but I've venture to guess that Bay Area-Hawaii might not do quite as well as SEA-Hawaii. AS can do pretty much anything out of SEA. New service out of CA to the East Coast and Hawaii might take a little longer to catch on or to need less stimulation in the way of fare sales.

I thought I saw where Brad Tilden made a comment about cutting back on "underperforming" California to Hawaii markets. Since AS hasn't cut any routes that I know of, I assume he was talking about maybe cutting back on some frequencies. I did think that, say, making routes like SJC-LIH daily was a bit ambitious.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: HiFlyerAS
Posted 2013-04-04 08:57:55 and read 6766 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 32):
I thought I saw where Brad Tilden made a comment about cutting back on "underperforming" California to Hawaii markets. Since AS hasn't cut any routes that I know of, I assume he was talking about maybe cutting back on some frequencies. I did think that, say, making routes like SJC-LIH daily was a bit ambitious.

I think we're already seeing some reductions...instead of daily KOA and LIH out of SJC and OAK AS will be alternating KOA and LIH every other day starting in mid-May. I believe they did the same last summer...it will be interesting to see if these markets return to daily in the late fall/winter.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: FATFlyer
Posted 2013-04-04 09:13:33 and read 6568 times.

Quoting whatusaid (Reply 22):
Run the T100's and you'll understand the seasonality in the G4 markets. Consider FAT-HNL: In July, FAT launched 1X a week with a LF of 97%. Sept - November averaged only 61%. December, with 2X weekly, they generated a 71% LF. In terms of numbers, December was their best month, with 1603 pax originating in Fresno. G4 is finding they can easily fill airplanes over the holidays and summer, but we don't know the mix between air only and the package business. But, the wide swings in numbers are pretty much in line with what's being said by corporate.

Those numbers do match what the company is saying.

I think in the smaller markets the day of week of the flights also may have impacted LF in slow periods. With week-long vacations to Hawaii it would likely be harder to get large number of travelers to shift from a desired weekend departure to say a Wednesday or Thursday departure. During high season there are probably more than enough pax willing to accept a midweek flight to fill the aircraft.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 28):
This was their big mistake, too many unserved stations were opened just to facilitate a 1-2 x weekly 757 from HNL. GEG/BOI are examples. I think they should have tested the market before expanding to so many markets.

Allegiant opened the BOI station with BOI-LAS flights on Oct 26, 2012 followed by BOI-HNL flights starting on Feb 10, 2013. They had time to cancel that HNL service if the LAS flights had not been working.

The cancelling of MRY-HNL also shows they were not afraid to pull a Hawaii flight before it started if bookings were not turning up. So GEG-HNL likely started booking OK but the seasonal dropoff was higher than anticipated.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 31):
I found a 2010 post on seats per day, for a Sunday, to Hawaii.

G4 had at the peak ~2600 seats per week on their 13 weekly flights.

The Hawaii Touism Authority puts out more recent available seat info by individual market.

For the next 3 months (April to June), there are scheduled from the US to Hawaii 1,788,423 seats on 8,715 flights.
http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.or.../research/infrastructure-research/

Allegiant is a small portion of that service and mainly from previously unserved cities.

If AS, HA, UA or someone else already had been flying to Hawaii weekly from FAT, SMX, etc I doubt Allegiant would be flying the routes.

[Edited 2013-04-04 09:15:36]

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-04-04 09:55:51 and read 6081 times.

Knowing Allegiant i don't think there is any reason to panic. They love to have funky schedules and wont fly routes when they are not profitable. Allegiant has mastered the less than daily and seasonal flying to smaller cities.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: awacsooner
Posted 2013-04-04 10:02:35 and read 5966 times.

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 6):
They have a terrible reputation with the locals here. They have almost completely destroyed their reputation in a very short time.

Kinda like GO? Except people still fly them.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-04-04 10:43:26 and read 5531 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 12):
And do you believe everything a spokesperson says? Geesh. What do you expect them to say? AS is beating our pants off; or we're having issues with our 757s; or we have a bad reputation among travelers; or we misread the market? (If there were other reasons; I'm just listing hypothetical examples to illustrate my point.)

Why not? What do I expect from them? Well for starters when they pull out of a market...

http://www.wwaytv3.com/2013/01/15/al...ng-service-between-ilm-and-orlando

Allegiant says its primary reason is that decreasing loads and future advanced bookings are not meeting their financial performance projections.

http://worcesterma.blogspot.com/2006...llegiant-pulls-out-of-stewart.html

airline President Maurice Gallagher, Jr. cited “escalating competitive conditions within the market” as the reason for the pull out.

Well there are two examples that shoot you down on them never admitting to competition running them out or the market just flat out sucking. They have always been pretty frank when they've pulled markets in the past. This is pretty clearly labeled a seasonal pull down just like they do in nearly every other market. Great Lakes area to Florida tends to be completely pulled down late summer to early fall, so why not do similar seasonal adjustments elsewhere? If a market to Hawaii only makes sense in Winter and Spring, why operate it at a loss the rest of the year? Just a stupid waste of money IMO.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: SSTeve
Posted 2013-04-04 11:10:46 and read 5204 times.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 37):
If a market to Hawaii only makes sense in Winter and Spring, why operate it at a loss the rest of the year? Just a stupid waste of money IMO.

If you are Allegiant, and can do nothing with the planes.

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-04-04 11:36:25 and read 4902 times.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 34):
I think in the smaller markets the day of week of the flights also may have impacted LF in slow periods.

100% agree. I expect G4 to return when people have more time off.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 34):
For the next 3 months (April to June), there are scheduled from the US to Hawaii 1,788,423 seats on 8,715 flights.

I bow to your superior numbers.

Less than I expected (fewer than 100 flights per day). That is quite a reduction in service.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 34):
Allegiant is a small portion of that service and mainly from previously unserved cities.

   The point I was trying to make. They really do not compete directly with the big guys, so they are tough to stop.

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 38):
If you are Allegiant, and can do nothing with the planes.

   Allegiant parks planes if it is that slow. There model is based on acquiring aircraft severely depreciated so that parking remains an option for seasonal (stop-clock) parking.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 37):
If a market to Hawaii only makes sense in Winter and Spring,

Then only fly it Winter and Spring. G4 specializes in smaller markets and thus their weekly flights.


Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-04-04 11:42:23 and read 4841 times.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 28):
I think they should have tested the market before expanding to so many markets.

I don't think that a carrier like Allegiant can really "test the waters" when they are footing the bill for ETOPS certification and 757 subfleet acquisitions. They pretty much are at as low of an operation (starting up) as they could be in order to make it financially worthwhile, and I imagine that they would like to see it grow further. It's going to be expensive and there's going to be a learning curve.

This is nothing to worry about. They will figure it out, or they will pull it down, but either way it's not a huge concern nor a conviction of their leadership. This has been a multi-year endeavor which makes them susceptible to market changes (demand, competition, etc.).

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 28):
It is too bad, I always wish a carrier well when embarking in a new direction, I think G4 does look to the Hawaii origin market to fill planes to LAS, this route is staying, so obviously the locals are not the issue, it's the mainlanders going on their Hawaiian vacations, based upon the cities being seasonally suspended.

It's demand. For AS, as an example, they can go from say 7 weekly frequencies in a market to 3 weekly frequencies without too much fanfare. For Allegiant, they are going to see 2-3 weekly frequencies drop to 0-2 frequencies, which is much more noticable. That's just the nature of their flying. Nothing new - isn't that their business model in a nutshell?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
Excluding LAX, G4 mostly went for low frequency destinations to Hawaii. HA's model is for daily flights. Will they alter their model?

Well, my A321 comment was meant tongue-in-cheek.  

To me, the mistake (if you can call it that) that Allegiant made was not deciding on their narrowbody replacement before entering Hawaii. I think it would have been better to have chosen the A32X or 737NG ... and THEN did the ETOPS with those aircraft, giving them more operational flexibility and a lower cost bsse. Sure, the A320 isn't currently doing Hawaii trips, and the 73G/738 are smaller and less capable than the 752, but they will have a longer future in the Allegiant fleet and with a lower overall cost to them to operate and move around.

-Dave

Topic: RE: Allegiant Suspends A Majority Of Its Hawaii Flying
Username: ouboy79
Posted 2013-04-04 11:46:49 and read 4773 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 39):
Then only fly it Winter and Spring. G4 specializes in smaller markets and thus their weekly flights.

My point exactly. People calling for the end of the world because they announce seasonal suspensions just need to relax and focus on the history at G4.


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