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Topic: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: jpen4314
Posted 2013-04-05 19:42:36 and read 12878 times.

http://philippineairspace.blogspot.c.../2013/04/pal-to-fly-sao-paulo.html

Wow. Discuss.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-04-05 19:56:26 and read 12817 times.

Heard about PAL expecting to fly to Rio de Janeiro due to the huge business flow (oil & gas) and tourists going to Brazil (Rio). Majority of business people flies MNL-XXX-GIG

First time i heard about Sao Paulo.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: HOONS90
Posted 2013-04-05 19:56:52 and read 12815 times.

How about MNL-BEY-GRU?

Huge Lebanese community in Brazil. I believe VARIG planned to start flying to BEY before the airline shut down.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-05 21:11:26 and read 12574 times.

PAL expressed interest in flying to Brazil a while back (around 2011-early 2012). They especially want to take advantage of growing business and tourism ties between the Philippines and Brazil: Brazil is the largest source for tourists from South America for the Philippines.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: behramjee
Posted 2013-04-05 22:11:07 and read 12396 times.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
Heard about PAL expecting to fly to Rio de Janeiro due to the huge business flow (oil & gas) and tourists going to Brazil (Rio). Majority of business people flies MNL-XXX-GIG

First time i heard about Sao Paulo.

This has shocked me considering in 2012 the market sizes were as follows from MNL:

GIG...10,100

GRU...12,710

Hence both not being even medium sized markets at all. PAL would be making a big mistake and wasting a whole of resources in investing in a new GRU service which it instead can easily offer via a simple code share.

Normally new long haul announcements by PAL really no excite me but this one reeks of failure from the on set big time unfortunately  

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Byrdluvs747
Posted 2013-04-05 23:03:31 and read 12271 times.

This is a 12k mile flight no matter the routing. PR will need to command better than average yields to make this work. Codesharing on AA's upcoming LAX-GRU could be a safer venture.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Devilfish
Posted 2013-04-05 23:10:34 and read 12242 times.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
Majority of business people flies MNL-XXX-GIG

First time i heard about Sao Paulo.

Perhaps slots are harder to get at GIG than at GRU? Anyway, according to the link, PR has fifth freedom rights from AUH and DXB to Africa and South America.....

Quote:
"PAL president Ramon S. Ang said in October last year that the airline was preparing flight approvals to South America.

'The plan for Brazil as a route is in line with the company’s strategy to expand its international operations,' Ang was quoted as saying.

He did not say where and which way they will fly to South America as there is no aircraft from both Airbus and Boeing in current production that reaches Brazil direct.

[.....]

Arcilla however stressed that Philippine Airlines has fifth freedom rights from Abu Dhabi or Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and they might probably use that right onwards to Sao Paulo. The recent ASA granted the Philippines rights to carry passengers to South America and Africa..."


http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=mnl+-+auh+-+dxb+-+gru&MS=wls&MR=900&MX=720x360&PM=*
http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=mnl+-+auh...+gru&MS=wls&MR=900&MX=720x360&PM=*

So, PR might test the route's viability with the A340 they intend to fly to AUH.


Quoting behramjee (Reply 4):
Hence both not being even medium sized markets at all. PAL would be making a big mistake and wasting a whole of resources in investing in a new GRU service which it instead can easily offer via a simple code share.

I too was skeptical about likely loads when they broached their intent to fly to Brazil. Although in fairness, they're looking at code sharing with ET first via ADD.


Quoting behramjee (Reply 4):
Normally new long haul announcements by PAL really no excite me but this one reeks of failure from the on set big time unfortunately

They may have been swayed by the ambassador's eagerness...but it's doubtful PR could wrest many passengers away from the GCC carriers.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: United Airline
Posted 2013-04-05 23:37:49 and read 12181 times.

So they still don't want to return to Europe??

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-06 02:18:12 and read 11475 times.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 7):
So they still don't want to return to Europe??

What made you think that? PAL has ambitious plans for a return to Europe, with CDG being relaunched first, and LON/FRA/FCO being restarted later, plus IST and DME.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: sq256
Posted 2013-04-06 06:35:34 and read 10127 times.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 7):

Even if PR did want to return to Europe, they (and all other airlines of the Philippines) are still banned by the EU.

[Edited 2013-04-06 06:36:02]

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: SCQ83
Posted 2013-04-06 06:56:08 and read 9956 times.

Maybe they just should do an agreement with Etihad, since they do partnerships with anyone  . EY is starting AUH-GRU in June. GRU has got TK, EK (also GIG), EY and QR in the last few years... is there a market for so many carriers? Maybe a partnership with PR would help EY to fill the rear of the plane (I assume most traffic PH-BR is low-yield filipino workers in the oil fields in Brazil).

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 6):

PR all the way MNL-Emirates-Brazil is a crazy idea. SQ is routed SIN-BCN-GRU and CA, PEK-MAD-GRU. In both cases, there is a substantial O&D BCN-GRU and MAD-GRU traffic that both SQ and CA can take. SQ has no competition and CA is competing with JJ and IB.

In the case of the Emirates, how large is the local Brazil-UAE traffic? I assume, way way smaller.... and you are competing with EK and EY. PR wouldn't have any problem to fill UAE-MNL, but MNL-Brazil?

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: LipeGIG
Posted 2013-04-06 07:21:41 and read 9798 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 4):
This has shocked me considering in 2012 the market sizes were as follows from MNL:

GIG...10,100

GRU...12,710

I would expect more for Rio as i can show the traffic is at least 70% business oriented using such figures but to be that close to Sao Paulo shows the activity is above average (it happens only on oil markets for obvious reasons). Of course Sao Paulo have a huge leisure origin base (3 times the size of Rio) and deals more with connections.
Many here understimate the fact that Sao Paulo, besides South America top business market, is the origin of around 8-12 million people that travel for leisure also.

Ministry of Labor in Brazil lists 5176 visas obtained by citizens from Philippines, 3615 going to oil industry for a period of at least 6 to 12 months and many times they can fly 1 time back home within their assignment, 1309 as crew of cruise ships. The first group goes to Rio 100%, the second group goes to Sao Paulo, but i'm not sure they need a ticket as they probably come as a crew member of the cruise ship.

KL/EK probably controls this market.

It is small, but i believe if they create a route 3x weekly, considering the poppulation on both sides, the O&D could reach 40,000 a year.

Thanks for sharing your numbers.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 6):
Perhaps slots are harder to get at GIG than at GRU? Anyway, according to the link, PR has fifth freedom rights from AUH and DXB to Africa and South America.....

No, but right now GIG is managed by a government corporation while GRU is not.
I doubt they will try to compete with Gulf carriers with stops over UAE considering there are DOH-GRU, IST-GRU, DXB-GIG and soon Abu Dhabi-Sao Paulo.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
Maybe they just should do an agreement with Etihad, since they do partnerships with anyone . EY is starting AUH-GRU in June. GRU has got TK, EK (also GIG), EY and QR in the last few years... is there a market for so many carriers? Maybe a partnership with PR would help EY to fill the rear of the plane (I assume most traffic PH-BR is low-yield filipino workers in the oil fields in Brazil).

Oil fields in Brazil are off-shore (99%) and include very good compensations for the time (15 to 30 days) on a Plataform, including 15 days off duty.
And for travellers outside of Brazil, i doubt an airline would charge a promotional fare for a 3 to 6 months stay ticket. Even if coporations bought 2 promotional tickets, it is at least 100% above regular discounted tickets.
And all airlines focusing the oil & gas market seems to be happy and keep increasing their operations.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-06 07:26:33 and read 9741 times.

Quoting sq256 (Reply 9):
Even if PR did want to return to Europe, they (and all other airlines of the Philippines) are still banned by the EU.

That will change as the ICAO lifted the SSCs on the Philippines. In fact, France has already expressed interest in helping the Philippines get out of the blacklist. I hope this will be lifted sometime within the year.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: behramjee
Posted 2013-04-06 08:36:08 and read 9290 times.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 6):

Perhaps slots are harder to get at GIG than at GRU? Anyway, according to the link, PR has fifth freedom rights from AUH and DXB to Africa and South America.....
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):

No, but right now GIG is managed by a government corporation while GRU is not.
I doubt they will try to compete with Gulf carriers with stops over UAE considering there are DOH-GRU, IST-GRU, DXB-GIG and soon Abu Dhabi-Sao Paulo.

In 2012 the market size between DXB and Brazil was as follows:

GRU...42,000

GIG...19,000

In comparison, AUH-Brazil was less than 2,500 passengers in total !

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: AF022
Posted 2013-04-06 09:07:53 and read 9070 times.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 13):
In 2012 the market size between DXB and Brazil was as follows:

GRU...42,000

GIG...19,000

In comparison, AUH-Brazil was less than 2,500 passengers in total !

You cannot compare DXB and AUH traffic. If I lived in AUH and I wanted to go to GIG I would just drive to DXB and catch the EK flight. I would show up as DXB traffic even if I originated in AUH.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-04-06 16:21:15 and read 7256 times.

This has to be the worst idea in airline route planning ever proposed. Brazil is a pot of airline gold that every airline with a long haul fleet from Asia feels it has to fly to. Those with high yield could make it work but Philipine Air is not a high yielder, it needs to work on category 1 so it can expand to the USA.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-06 23:53:17 and read 6312 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
This has to be the worst idea in airline route planning ever proposed.

They expressed interest in serving Brazil. No definite plans yet. I'd like to see first how they'd even route such a route before concluding that such is "the worst idea...ever".

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
it needs to work on category 1 so it can expand to the USA.

What makes you think PR isn't doing that? The regulatory faults of the CAAP should not be blamed on PR: it even helped the CAAP so that it could become compliant!

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: MHG
Posted 2013-04-07 02:56:10 and read 6132 times.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 12):
That will change as the ICAO lifted the SSCs on the Philippines. In fact, France has already expressed interest in helping the Philippines get out of the blacklist. I hope this will be lifted sometime within the year.

  

Even more ...
The European Commission Directorate General for Transport has already invited the CAAP for a meeting in Brussels on April 16 to discuss the terms regarding the possible lifting of the EU ban on Philippine carriers to fly into its airspace !

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 16):
They expressed interest in serving Brazil. No definite plans yet. I'd like to see first how they'd even route such a route before concluding that such is "the worst idea...ever".

Sounds to me more like a possible long term proposal rather than a realistic today´s idea ...

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 16):
What makes you think PR isn't doing that? The regulatory faults of the CAAP should not be blamed on PR: it even helped the CAAP so that it could become compliant!

  

PAL is not at all to blame for CAAP´s shortcomings.
PAL has maintained to run their business following internationally accepted regulations (ICAO/FAA/EASA) ever since.
The downgrading of the Philippines as a whole country was simply due to the regulatory body in the Phils. (CAAP) not being able to overlook/control the aviation in the country properly.
... and PAL was just deliberately handycapped in its activities due to the country´s downgrading.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-04-07 15:58:43 and read 5650 times.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 16):
They expressed interest in serving Brazil. No definite plans yet. I'd like to see first how they'd even route such a route before concluding that such is "the worst idea...ever".

Considering the only two Oriental airlines flying there are Singapore and Korean which any comparison are "not in the same ballpark" as PAL. PAL should concentrate on resuming flights to Europe before it decides to go on such misadventures.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-07 16:42:13 and read 5577 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 18):
PAL should concentrate on resuming flights to Europe before it decides to go on such misadventures.

And what makes you think they're not doing that as well? PAL has already planned a pretty ambitious return to Europe, contingent on the removal of the Philippines from the EU blacklist.

I'd say they have their bases covered so far.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: b767erWinglets
Posted 2013-04-07 17:52:40 and read 5477 times.

Has anyone considered MNL - AKL - GRU as a potential route? I know there was some talk about PR entering the AKL market and this would be an alternative to the Middle East/Europe market that is already at saturation point?

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Devilfish
Posted 2013-04-07 18:37:21 and read 5405 times.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 5):
PR will need to command better than average yields to make this work. Codesharing on AA's upcoming LAX-GRU could be a safer venture.

This may be farfetched...but somehow I see PR pushing through with their oft-cited SAN plan should Cat 2 be lifted, the GRU route materializes, and they decide to go TPAC on the return....

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ion-but-faces-uphill-battle-103604

Quote:
"In addition to using the 777-300ER on the Los Angeles and San Francisco routes, PAL is looking at using the type to launch services to New York and potentially a third destination on the US west coast such as San Diego."

A lot of assumptions admittedly...but plausible, especially if PR orders the 787.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
Maybe they just should do an agreement with Etihad, since they do partnerships with anyone EY is starting AUH-GRU in June.

They already have existing agreements with EK and EY. If PR sign on for more, they might as well cancel their airplane orders and call it a day.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
Maybe a partnership with PR would help EY to fill the rear of the plane.

Then it's helping EY more than PR.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
(I assume most traffic PH-BR is low-yield filipino workers in the oil fields in Brazil).
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
Those with high yield could make it work but Philipine Air is not a high yielder,

This mantra has been flogged on here for the longest time and yet those other airlines have been going after the very same passengers. If no money is to be made off of them, then airlines will not field planes with economy sections. Somehow, Ryanair and AirAsia disprove that...while all-premium carriers had bitten the dust one after the other (with the notable exception of BA's LCY-JFK runs).

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
PR all the way MNL-Emirates-Brazil is a crazy idea.

It may not seem so crazy when you consider that these workers are marooned on oil platforms in the middle of the sea, and away from home for months on end...and would readily pay going rates for the shortest route with the least stop, just to be with their families.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
SQ is routed SIN-BCN-GRU and CA, PEK-MAD-GRU. In both cases, there is a substantial O&D BCN-GRU and MAD-GRU traffic that both SQ and CA can take.

PR is not after SQ's pax profile, and CA's routing is far removed from PR's target.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 10):
PR wouldn't have any problem to fill UAE-MNL, but MNL-Brazil?

The Brazilian oil industry is growing and in need of increasing number of experienced people. Filipinos ending their contracts in the GCC and Middle East provide a ready pool of workers with the requisite skill sets at competitive costs.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 18):
Considering the only two Oriental airlines flying there are Singapore and Korean which any comparison are "not in the same ballpark" as PAL.

PR is playing a different game in another court.

Quoting b767erWinglets (Reply 20):
Has anyone considered MNL - AKL - GRU as a potential route?

That will involve much greater distances than are practicable. PR does have AKL in their regional plans, though.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: SCQ83
Posted 2013-04-07 19:23:04 and read 5321 times.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 21):
It may not seem so crazy when you consider that these workers are marooned on oil platforms in the middle of the sea, and away from home for months on end...and would readily pay going rates for the shortest route with the least stop, just to be with their families.

In this case PR should count on passengers flying MNL-UAE (no issues filling seats in the OFW-Express), UAE-Brazil and MNL-Brazil.

Which is the local market Brazil-UAE? Quite small (GRU-DXB 42k as for behramjee... and you have EK, EY, QR with far more daily seats). Seriously, could PR tap some of that tiny O&D market competing with Emirates, Etihad and Qatar? Let me think... no.

So PR must rely on this second leg (which btw is 6,500 nm VS 3,800 nm of MNL-UAE) on traffic Brazil-MNL, which is a basically a small community of a few thousand Filipinos 10,000 nm from home. Nothing remotely comparable to the +2M OFW in the Gulf or the OFW in the US/Canada. And even those hundreds of thousands of Filipinos in the UAE or KSA have managed to fly home almost exclusively with the Gulf or Asian carriers till very recently.

And you are even counting on those few thousand Filipinos in Brazil to fly on PR, when, again, today you have at least four world-class carriers (TK, EK, EY and QR) with excellent connectivity from Brazil to Philippines; from their hubs to MNL (TK soon) and connections to GRU (and GIG for EK). I don't get how a potential MNL-UAE-GIG would be any shorter than MNL-DXB-GIG with Emirates... and I am sure many Filipinos are ready to pay more for more than 20 (?) hours of flights with EK/EY/QR rather than PR.

It just doesn't make any sense.





[Edited 2013-04-07 19:30:04]

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: DCAjet
Posted 2013-04-07 21:00:38 and read 5189 times.

I am sorry but is this a late April 1st joke?

So, even with Brazil having the largest Japanese community outside of Japan, a NRT-GRU would not work, yields wise and PAL thinks they can make MNL-GRU work? Please....

Either some blogger is The Philippines is looking for some exposure or if this is truly coming from PAL they are in worse shape than I thought... How about working on getting past their European ban and getting the Philippines out of CAT II - the latter may be fixed?

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Devilfish
Posted 2013-04-07 22:17:22 and read 5108 times.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 22):
Seriously, could PR tap some of that tiny O&D market competing with Emirates, Etihad and Qatar? Let me think... no.

And PR is not meaning to.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 22):
So PR must rely on this second leg (which btw is 6,500 nm VS 3,800 nm of MNL-UAE) on traffic Brazil-MNL, which is a basically a small community of a few thousand Filipinos 10,000 nm from home.

The blog did mention that PR was looking to code share first with ET to ADD which is roughly equidistant from GRU and MNL.....

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=mnl-add-gru&MS=wls&MR=900&MX=720x360&PM=*
http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=mnl-add-gru&MS=wls&MR=900&MX=720x360&PM=*

ADD will allow both legs to be operated by the HGW A330s PR has on order...but may not provide the traffic the others could.

As Akiestar pointed out in #16, PR only expressed interest...and had no definite plans yet. For all we know, they might decide to route it TPAC, or drop the idea altogether.


Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 22):
And even those hundreds of thousands of Filipinos in the UAE or KSA have managed to fly home almost exclusively with the Gulf or Asian carriers till very recently.

For those had no local competition, as PR was practically bankrupt and barely staying afloat.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 22):
And you are even counting on those few thousand Filipinos in Brazil to fly on PR, when, again, today you have at least four world-class carriers (TK, EK, EY and QR) with excellent connectivity from Brazil to Philippines;

It's doubtful being 'world-class' is foremost in their choice of airline. Also, do not discount the appeal of flying with their own people, and the 'no plane transfer' convenience.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 22):
I don't get how a potential MNL-UAE-GIG would be any shorter than MNL-DXB-GIG with Emirates

You really will not get it, as those two were not the ones being compared.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 22):
and I am sure many Filipinos are ready to pay more for more than 20 (?) hours of flights with EK/EY/QR rather than PR.

You might be surprised.

Quoting DCAjet (Reply 23):
I am sorry but is this a late April 1st joke?

What do you think?  

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-07 23:39:11 and read 5095 times.

Quoting DCAjet (Reply 23):
Either some blogger is The Philippines is looking for some exposure or if this is truly coming from PAL they are in worse shape than I thought... How about working on getting past their European ban and getting the Philippines out of CAT II - the latter may be fixed?

This is what I don't like about some A.net forumers: they can be so condescending when PAL decides to try something out of the box. This happened with MNL-LAS, this happened with the 77W, and this is apparently now happening with Brazil.

Well, if you won't believe the blogger, perhaps local media may be a little more palatable for your taste? (Article was published last year.)

http://business.inquirer.net/87362/pal-eyes-brazil

Also, what makes you think PAL is not doing anything about the European ban and Cat II? Heck, as I pointed out in another thread from a while back, PAL tried to help the CAAP get out of Cat II. So don't even think they're not doing anything about it: they're the ones being hurt the most by the inaction of the Philippine government with respect to this. They're the ones hurt the most by them being unable to send newer planes to the United States or being unable to tap new markets. If PAL didn't care, they wouldn't do so much just to get the Philippines' civil aviation regulatory problems fixed. And mind you, they don't even have to do it.

We're lucky the Philippines had its SSCs lifted, and Europe is considering lifting the ban on Philippine carriers. The FAA might follow suit and lift Cat II within the year, hopefully. But don't even think PAL can't make a market work: this is not the same airline that went bankrupt in 1998 because of an ambitious expansion gone wrong.

Well, at least the Philippines and Latin America are growing their cultural and economic ties again. That should say something with respect to the viability of any future service to Latin America. Again, before shooting down the idea, let's see how they will do it before jumping the gun.

[Edited 2013-04-07 23:41:45]

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: abrelosojos
Posted 2013-04-07 23:47:30 and read 5069 times.

And of course GIG/GRU would be the base for returning PR to profitability ...

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
I would expect more for Rio as i can show the traffic is at least 70% business oriented using such figures but to be that close to Sao Paulo shows the activity is above average (it happens only on oil markets for obvious reasons).

= And those would probably far prefer the FAR superior product on board EK and EY than fly PR. 10,000 OD and a nonstop on a long route = recipe for disaster.

Saludos,
Alex

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: dcajet
Posted 2013-04-08 00:44:34 and read 5063 times.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 25):
This is what I don't like about some A.net forumers: they can be so condescending when PAL decides to try something out of the box. This happened with MNL-LAS, this happened with the 77W, and this is apparently now happening with Brazil.

Well, if you won't believe the blogger, perhaps local media may be a little more palatable for your taste? (Article was published last year.)

http://business.inquirer.net/87362/pal-eyes-brazil

Also, what makes you think PAL is not doing anything about the European ban and Cat II? Heck, as I pointed out in another thread from a while back, PAL tried to help the CAAP get out of Cat II. So don't even think they're not doing anything about it: they're the ones being hurt the most by the inaction of the Philippine government with respect to this. They're the ones hurt the most by them being unable to send newer planes to the United States or being unable to tap new markets. If PAL didn't care, they wouldn't do so much just to get the Philippines' civil aviation regulatory problems fixed. And mind you, they don't even have to do it.

We're lucky the Philippines had its SSCs lifted, and Europe is considering lifting the ban on Philippine carriers. The FAA might follow suit and lift Cat II within the year, hopefully. But don't even think PAL can't make a market work: this is not the same airline that went bankrupt in 1998 because of an ambitious expansion gone wrong.

Well, at least the Philippines and Latin America are growing their cultural and economic ties again. That should say something with respect to the viability of any future service to Latin America. Again, before shooting down the idea, let's see how they will do it before jumping the gun.

[Edited 2013-04-07 23:41:45]

I have no desire to shoot down these supposed plans by PAL; be my guest, I have no horse in this race. Now that does not stop me from seeing this idea as lunacy. Do you know how many Pinoys live in Brazil? Around 500 by all counts plus 20 in Brazilian jails. So there you go. And do you know how many Brazilians visited the Philippines in 2011? 2078. Then Argentina follows with 786. A most healthy base upon which to build a solid, profitable air service...

It appears the country with the most descendants of Filipinos is Mexico with 200,000, followed by Argentina with 10,000. Listen, I grew up in Argentina and I can assure you that the ties - of any nature - between the two countries are paper thin. Other than both territories having been in the possession of Spain at some point in time, there is nothing in common. I am not sure what ties you refer to. No one in Argentina would think of going to the Philippines on vacation, other than the occasional bohemian backpacker. Golly, why would anyone in fly for 24 hours for your vacation to a place very few know about? When the Caribbean is 8 hours away, Cuba and Cancun are 7 hours away and Brazil is 2 hours away? And the same goes for Brazil... On the reverse, I am not seeing Filipinos en masse going to LatAm on holiday, neither has Latin America any need for Filipino man power - there is plenty of human resources in the continent. The more you slice and dice this idea, the less sense it makes.

If truly PAL is pushing for these flights on their own metal as a stand alone service, I am doubtful of its future as a viable, profitable, ongoing airline business.

[Edited 2013-04-08 01:32:43]

[Edited 2013-04-08 01:35:40]

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: airlinebuilder
Posted 2013-04-08 00:47:25 and read 5049 times.

with all these computations going on with regard to the distance and capacity to fly north south east and west, does anybody have word yet on the 4 long range Airbus Philippine Airlines is planning to lease to be made available next month for operations? Anyone?

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: AngMoh
Posted 2013-04-08 09:48:57 and read 4690 times.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 21):
It may not seem so crazy when you consider that these workers are marooned on oil platforms in the middle of the sea, and away from home for months on end...and would readily pay going rates for the shortest route with the least stop, just to be with their families.

They don't buy their own tickets. Their employer buys it for them and they will buy the cheapest ticket they can find.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 21):
PR is not after SQ's pax profile, and CA's routing is far removed from PR's target.

SQ can only make the route work because they effectively fly a separate GRU-BCN and BCN-SIN routes with only some traffic going all the way. If they could not pick up significant traffic in BCN going both ways, it would not work.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 25):
This is what I don't like about some A.net forumers: they can be so condescending when PAL decides to try something out of the box. This happened with MNL-LAS, this happened with the 77W, and this is apparently now happening with Brazil.

PALs track record is not fantastic. Maybe they are improved a lot, but they still have a long way to go. As long as there is still more noise than reality, people will stay skeptics. And I also think PAL should focus on more realistic routes before going to Brazil. 5167 Philippinos who got Brazil visas show clearly that this is not a viable route. PAL will never get a 100% share of an already small market because there is a competitor called EK who can serve this market profitably.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-08 20:44:58 and read 4380 times.

Quoting dcajet (Reply 27):

I have no desire to shoot down these supposed plans by PAL; be my guest, I have no horse in this race. Now that does not stop me from seeing this idea as lunacy. Do you know how many Pinoys live in Brazil? Around 500 by all counts plus 20 in Brazilian jails. So there you go. And do you know how many Brazilians visited the Philippines in 2011? 2078. Then Argentina follows with 786. A most healthy base upon which to build a solid, profitable air service...

It appears the country with the most descendants of Filipinos is Mexico with 200,000, followed by Argentina with 10,000. Listen, I grew up in Argentina and I can assure you that the ties - of any nature - between the two countries are paper thin. Other than both territories having been in the possession of Spain at some point in time, there is nothing in common. I am not sure what ties you refer to. No one in Argentina would think of going to the Philippines on vacation, other than the occasional bohemian backpacker. Golly, why would anyone in fly for 24 hours for your vacation to a place very few know about? When the Caribbean is 8 hours away, Cuba and Cancun are 7 hours away and Brazil is 2 hours away? And the same goes for Brazil... On the reverse, I am not seeing Filipinos en masse going to LatAm on holiday, neither has Latin America any need for Filipino man power - there is plenty of human resources in the continent. The more you slice and dice this idea, the less sense it makes.

If truly PAL is pushing for these flights on their own metal as a stand alone service, I am doubtful of its future as a viable, profitable, ongoing airline business.

With all do respect, I am aware of the data. Heck, this idea of PAL flying to Brazil is not new to A.net: it was discussed previously, so don't presume I don't know the data.

Philippine Airlines And Its Refleeting (by airlinebuilder Dec 12 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Feel free to read through my posts exemplifying the growing trade linkages between the Philippines and Latin America. But the point is this: in the absence of more direct linkages, how do you grow a market?

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: abrelosojos
Posted 2013-04-08 21:47:01 and read 4307 times.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 30):
Feel free to read through my posts exemplifying the growing trade linkages between the Philippines and Latin America. But the point is this: in the absence of more direct linkages, how do you grow a market?

= Are the opportunities for PAL/Philippes that desperate, that they need to grow such an absurd market?

Saludos,
Alex

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: dcajet
Posted 2013-04-08 22:36:58 and read 4224 times.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 30):
With all do respect, I am aware of the data. Heck, this idea of PAL flying to Brazil is not new to A.net: it was discussed previously, so don't presume I don't know the data.

Philippine Airlines And Its Refleeting (by airlinebuilder Dec 12 2012 in Civil Aviation)

Feel free to read through my posts exemplifying the growing trade linkages between the Philippines and Latin America. But the point is this: in the absence of more direct linkages, how do you grow a market?

I struggle with this. So if you are aware of the data, why do you keep insisting on something that clearly, is not going to work? This is not trying to stimulate a market like Ryanair does... This is beating on a dead horse, hoping against hope. There is no market to stimulate here - and I am sure PAL has better things to do with their pesos than wasting them flying empty 777s to the other half of the world.

What you have here is an airline that has taken advantage of the abundance of money available in the market now and went on a shopping spree - read B777-300ER and frankly, has nowhere to fly them profitably or legally (US). So these absurd ideas are concocted somewhere and then try to be passed here as "thinking outside of the box". Like Vegas... and you tell me how that went...

Regards,

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: LurveBus
Posted 2013-04-08 23:20:23 and read 4188 times.

Uhm, there seems to be a lot of brouhaha over nothing. We don't even have an ASA with Brazil yet, for goodness' sake.

PAL has been insinuating it wants to fly here or there or wherever there seems to be a chance for a market for a very specific reason: in case it would be viable to fly there in the future, then the entitlements will be theirs. Despite the visa-free agreement with Brazil, it'll be years before its growing industries would be able to attract enough Filipino workers to make a commercial flight viable. There are other places in the world with more Filipinos than Brazil that do not receive PR service, or any direct service to Manila (Take New Zealand, for example). Entitlements are still assets, and calling dibs on them doesn't really cost PAL anything.

Quoting dcajet (Reply 27):

If truly PAL is pushing for these flights on their own metal as a stand alone service, I am doubtful of its future as a viable, profitable, ongoing airline business

If truly you believe that an airline controlled by one of Southeast Asia's largest conglomerates would randomly fly aircraft to places on a whim, then that's pretty gullible of you.

Quoting dcajet (Reply 32):
What you have here is an airline that has taken advantage of the abundance of money available in the market now and went on a shopping spree - read B777-300ER and frankly, has nowhere to fly them profitably or legally

First, the T7s were ordered more than a year before CATII became an issue. Second, they were ordered because they had existing deposits with Boeing that made the offer too good to refuse (otherwise, they would've gotten near-immediate deliveries of the A346 which could've flown to the US before the CATII thing happened)

When PAL ordered the T7 (they only signed for 4 at first), they had already been flying daily B747s direct to LAX and SFO for five whole years. They had been very successful at the time in getting out of receivership. Every decision they made before 2007 has always been cautious and conservative.

The primary driver of PAL's woes at this time would be competition from Cebu Pacific. Cebu Pacific has managed to have larger and more profitable domestic and regional ops, and this, coupled with their fuel hedging fiasco, have basically put PAL in the red and on the defensive.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: dcajet
Posted 2013-04-09 01:24:23 and read 4085 times.

Quoting LurveBus (Reply 33):
If truly you believe that an airline controlled by one of Southeast Asia's largest conglomerates would randomly fly aircraft to places on a whim, then that's pretty gullible of you.

I never did... My point exactly.

Quote:
First, the T7s were ordered more than a year before CATII became an issue. Second, they were ordered because they had existing deposits with Boeing that made the offer too good to refuse (otherwise, they would've gotten near-immediate deliveries of the A346 which could've flown to the US before the CATII thing happened)

When PAL ordered the T7 (they only signed for 4 at first), they had already been flying daily B747s direct to LAX and SFO for five whole years. They had been very successful at the time in getting out of receivership. Every decision they made before 2007 has always been cautious and conservative.

The primary driver of PAL's woes at this time would be competition from Cebu Pacific. Cebu Pacific has managed to have larger and more profitable domestic and regional ops, and this, coupled with their fuel hedging fiasco, have basically put PAL in the red and on the defensive.

Sounds like a lot of excuses... So when will they be able to fly to the US with the 777? And to Europe?

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: Akiestar
Posted 2013-04-09 02:05:14 and read 4051 times.

Quoting dcajet (Reply 34):
So when will they be able to fly to the US with the 777? And to Europe?

US: As soon as Cat II is lifted. PR had long planned to increase SFO and LAX to double daily service using the 77Ws.

Europe: As soon as the Philippines get out of the blacklist. First destination should be CDG, but this could change.

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: jpen4314
Posted 2013-04-09 06:05:28 and read 3814 times.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 25):
This is what I don't like about some A.net forumers: they can be so condescending when PAL decides to try something out of the box. This happened with MNL-LAS, this happened with the 77W, and this is apparently now happening with Brazil.

After started this thread, I soon realised misread the original source and realised that PAL was merely codesharing with ET and sending a panel to Brazil in May.

Yes, the pessimism surrounding PAL has been rather overwhelming - at its worst, it has been condescending - but it is also worrying to the extent that discussion has turned towards the Philippines' bilateral relations or the popular views of PAL's and Philippines' 'profile'. By the same token, PR /PAL, and the Philippines by extension, has always operated against orthodox logic, and in very trying circumstances, namely its inability to expand in its bread and butter markets in North America and Northeast Asia. For this, it should receive at least some credit.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ion-but-faces-uphill-battle-103604

What worries and concerns me is whether this skepticism towards PAL is emblematic of overall attitudes towards to the Philippines, or perhaps an indifference, particularly Latin America. At the very least, the move to strengthen ties between the Philippines and Latin America is at least a noble gesture of old in the face of the challenging economics of flying such long, thin routes. But if some of the skepticism expressed in this thread is any sort of reflection of grassroots attitudes towards the lofty socio-political goals with establishing some sort of aviation link between Latin America and the Philippines. Of course, these Brazil flights do not represent the be-all-end-all of such aviation links, but the ultimate concern (at least at governmental level) is that the Philippines and Latin America are more distant from one another than being oceans apart.


The other elephant in the room is the 'profile' of the Philippines and therefore PAL, which isn't helped with the exportation of labour to all corners of the world to work in jobs too dirty, dangerous or demeaning for locals to be engaged in for a living (ironically, this structural element was what sustained the Philippines stability and outright growth through global economic of late - the recruiters' axe has focussed more on the JCL markets of middle and upper management on bloated salaries, rather than the already marginalised and destitute migrant workers). Yet the sheer irony of it all - and this is reflected in the statistics with which PAL has operated - it has been Brazillians coming to the Philippines rather than the other way around. Sure, they may be more likely to fly EK/ EY and otherwise offer only junk budget tourist yields, but I'm going to indulge in some off-tangent sociology and demography. Like the Koreans, for example, Brazillians have counter-intuitively migrated to Philippines to establish a not overwhelmingly large but not insignificant community to become the 10th largest foreign community. However, it has specifically been the Brapanese - Brazillian-Japanese - who have been the most prolific, working largely as models, actors and TV personalities. The move to the Philippines isn't so ridiculous given the circumstances of the Brapanese - too Asian for Brazil and so unwanted by Japan to the point of being paid to leave the country, the Brapanese have found a highly-prized niche with their mestizo good looks in the Philippines (which are more highly prized in the Philippines unlike Latin America, as mestizos in the Philippines constitute the socio-economic elite rather than the masses). Indeed, some local Filipino models and actors were caught out advocating for protection against cheaper Brapanese models - but of course, the Philippines would and should be the last to advocate for protectionism in labour markets.

The point of all this is that if the concept of Philippine-Brazil links are that unfathomable, a simple Google search of Brapanese will hopefully show that the two countries don't have *that* little to do with one another, at least on this side of the Pacific. Of course, the poor numbers remain - I'll be one to concede that going by CAPA's assessment - but in the fanciful alternative that such poor numbers were to improve or reveal some glimmer of economic hope, and one maintains that there is absolutely no market to stimulate with these links come hell or high water, then there are deeper underlying issues at hand.

[Edited 2013-04-09 06:07:26]

Topic: RE: PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo
Username: dcajet
Posted 2013-04-09 12:24:49 and read 3568 times.

Quoting jpen4314 (Reply 36):
The point of all this is that if the concept of Philippine-Brazil links are that unfathomable, a simple Google search of Brapanese will hopefully show that the two countries don't have *that* little to do with one another, at least on this side of the Pacific. Of course, the poor numbers remain - I'll be one to concede that going by CAPA's assessment - but in the fanciful alternative that such poor numbers were to improve or reveal some glimmer of economic hope, and one maintains that there is absolutely no market to stimulate with these links come hell or high water, then there are deeper underlying issues at hand.

Interesting, yet I think - perhaps this is where my San Francisco resident credentials come shining thru - that your post is a bit uncomfortable. You bring up things such as "underlying issues" that I think reside in your mind. Certainly not in mine. I am the "one" that said there is no market to stimulate. Unless you think a couple of hundred models turned into actors constitute a market upon which PAL can build a profitable route. No offense to anyone, but I know South America inside out and can assure you that the Philippines is not top of mind in any South American country as a destination: be it for business, for exports, for leisure and least of all a place to move to. That is a fact. And the Philippines #1 export, people, is not in demand there. The rest, just speculation at best, pipe dreams.

This is business - and as such needs to be taken. I am glad to hear that PAL's owners would not embark in such a crazy idea. PAL has a wonderful history and deserves the brightest of futures. Embarking in ill-conceived adventures is surely a way to chip away at any possible future. As it is, PAL has plenty to worry about at home: Cebu Pacific, no alliance seems to want it, CAT II, the Euro ban, low cost competition pretty much everywhere in Asia, a reputation for less than reliable service. All the former do not really help to attract the kind of customer PAL needs. Certainly flying to Sao Paulo is not going to help.

A few months ago, the same discussion, almost verbatim, happened on here around the topic of PAL eyeing Miami as their next US destination. While these boards are great for discussing airline related topics, lets all agree that just posting far fetched ideas with zero basis on facts really add nothing. Aviation and business are exact sciences. But such is free speech, isn't it?


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