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Topic: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-04-17 10:26:42 and read 24382 times.

Emirates have the 777-9X as the future mainstay of their long-range fleet:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...sor-specs-before-making-order.html

"“We’re working closely to get to specifications we’re happy with,” Emirates President Tim Clark said in an interview in Paris today. “That means layouts, the seats, the galleys, getting the weights right, getting the fuel burn.”

Clark has said he may need as many as 275 777s for replacement and expansion, a requirement so large his airline is likely to become the so-called launch customer of the successor plane. While Emirates is more advanced in talks with Boeing than other carriers, it doesn’t expect to be ready to table an order at the Paris Air Show in June, Clark said. "


With a need of some 275 units I think they will influence the spec a bit   

[Edited 2013-04-17 10:27:44]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-04-17 10:30:01 and read 24388 times.

...where did my jaw go?

Did he really say TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE??!?!?!

I'm.... stunned.

[Edited 2013-04-17 10:30:44]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: kiwirob
Posted 2013-04-17 10:32:39 and read 24300 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 1):

Did he really say TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE??!?!?!

He's been watching Higlander

'there can be only one!!!'

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-04-17 10:35:05 and read 24276 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 1):
...where did my jaw go?

Did he really say TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE??!?!?!

I'm.... stunned.

And so say all of us!

But I guess if he has 90 A380s in service/on order and looking for 30 more, it's fair to say he isn't thinking small!

I guess another way to put this is, "my plane, my rules"!

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-04-17 10:35:54 and read 24266 times.

When you order 275 airplanes, you can essentially get it customized to be the way you want it. Boeing is unlikely to cave into every demand of Emirates, but being launch customer can be very advantageous. Of course you have a lot of added costs too.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: waly777
Posted 2013-04-17 10:36:25 and read 24219 times.

Oh wow! 275! I suppose those will be ordered in batches, an order for 275 777's at a time will be beyond phenomenal

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-04-17 10:37:44 and read 24219 times.

I wonder how many of that projected 275 frames could be 777-8s...

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: SonomaFlyer
Posted 2013-04-17 10:38:40 and read 24178 times.

A massive order which should be -9X with perhaps 10-20 -8X LRs. Slots might be hard to obtain for other carriers depending on how fast EK wants the aircraft.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: PlaneAdmirer
Posted 2013-04-17 10:48:37 and read 24040 times.

Please, please may these be financed privately or at least not subsidized by U.S. taxpayers if this ends badly.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: art
Posted 2013-04-17 11:07:21 and read 23823 times.

Quoting ferpe (Thread starter):
While Emirates is more advanced in talks with Boeing than other carriers, it doesn’t expect to be ready to table an order at the Paris Air Show in June, Clark said.

Is the design so advanced that Boeing could give performance guarantees in June?

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: JimJupiter
Posted 2013-04-17 11:14:54 and read 23731 times.

WOW. Those numbers are a league of their own.

On a side note: welcome to the LH group, A350. 

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: USAF336TFS
Posted 2013-04-17 12:05:26 and read 23282 times.

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 10):
On a side note: welcome to the LH group, A350.

This article, as well as others, have mentioned Lufthansa as another launch customer for the 777X, which if it became reality, would probably end any chances of the A350 in LH's fleet, no?

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-04-17 12:06:11 and read 23264 times.

Quoting ferpe (Thread starter):
With a need of some 275 units I think they will influence the spec a bit

Indeed, but note he says he "may need".

Wait for him to put down a deposit for 275 or even a significant fraction of that and then we'll talk about it.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Roseflyer
Posted 2013-04-17 12:21:06 and read 23098 times.

Quoting art (Reply 9):
Quoting ferpe (Thread starter):
While Emirates is more advanced in talks with Boeing than other carriers, it doesn’t expect to be ready to table an order at the Paris Air Show in June, Clark said.

Is the design so advanced that Boeing could give performance guarantees in June?

Usually what happens is that performance estimates are given prior to launch. Any guarantees are typically conservative early in the design. The estimates that you hear in the news are less conservative than the guarantees given to customers since it is an airplane based on trade studies.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Hamlet69
Posted 2013-04-17 12:26:55 and read 23021 times.

Quoting waly777 (Reply 5):

Oh wow! 275! I suppose those will be ordered in batches, an order for 275 777's at a time will be beyond phenomenal

I don't want this to sound arrogant on Boeing's behalf, but to be blunt, Boeing won't LET him order them all at once, at least with the corresponding firm delivery spots that normally come with firm orders. That would be truly insane. I'd say anywhere from 50 to 125 up front, with options/purchase rights for the rest. The simple reason for this is:

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 10):
welcome to the LH group, A350

Exactly. As much as I'm sure Boeing would love a massive EK launch order, they also need delivery slots for other carriers. I already know of a couple MAX customers that wanted more up front, but Boeing said 'no'. And that's for a plane that will have 4x the production rate!

Regards,

Hamlet69

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: PW100
Posted 2013-04-17 12:30:16 and read 22983 times.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 4):
When you order 275 airplanes, you can essentially get it customized to be the way you want it.

So no need for Boeing any more to balance EK requirements like on the 747-8 . . . they will get their own model 777XEK!   

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-04-17 12:40:58 and read 22852 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Wait for him to put down a deposit for 275 or even a significant fraction of that and then we'll talk about it.

IMHO, it's unlikely that they would order anywhere near that many in a single order. I could easily see them ordering 50-75 firm with another 50 as options in their first order though.

Most likely at Dubai in November.   

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-04-17 12:50:35 and read 22735 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 11):
This article, as well as others, have mentioned Lufthansa as another launch customer for the 777X, which if it became reality, would probably end any chances of the A350 in LH's fleet, no?

Why? Emirates will have large fleets of both A350s and 777Xs, and I expect other carriers to have both as well.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: JimJupiter
Posted 2013-04-17 13:11:52 and read 22515 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 11):
This article, as well as others, have mentioned Lufthansa as another launch customer for the 777X, which if it became reality, would probably end any chances of the A350 in LH's fleet, no?

All this is, of course, hypothetical. But one argument is:

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 14):
As much as I'm sure Boeing would love a massive EK launch order, they also need delivery slots for other carriers.

And I was making another point, following the thread title: If the 777X meets EK's expectations, i.e. has the range they need, it's going to be not economical for LH (and other carriers) who do not need the range. WB customers have very different priorities, and if you meet one large customer's expectations completely (and that's the number of orders to think about it) , the product will become less attractive for others.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: RDH3E
Posted 2013-04-17 13:37:29 and read 22269 times.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 14):
I don't want this to sound arrogant on Boeing's behalf, but to be blunt, Boeing won't LET him order them all at once, at least with the corresponding firm delivery spots that normally come with firm orders. That would be truly insane. I'd say anywhere from 50 to 125 up front, with options/purchase rights for the rest. The simple reason for this is:

Boeing will absolutely LET him firmly order and put deposits on as many aircraft as he wants. He's just not going to get the first 275 slots, they will offer him the 275 slots over a long time horizon if he wants to do that. They'd be foolish to not take the order if they could get it. But they'd be equally foolish not to save many desirable delivery slots for other airlines.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: USAF336TFS
Posted 2013-04-17 14:30:45 and read 21160 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):

Why? Emirates will have large fleets of both A350s and 777Xs, and I expect other carriers to have both as well.

Lufthansa isn't Emirates and they have vastly different fleet plans, and they have made clear that it will will be one widebody type. Based on those statements, I'd take them at their word that it will be either 777X or A350. IMHO based on reports, I'd say the odds favor the triple 7.



[Edited 2013-04-17 14:38:47]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: wingman
Posted 2013-04-17 14:48:51 and read 20770 times.

I'd say you'll be disappointed. LH will not order the 777X if past experience is any indication. Where Airbus makes a competing product LH will order from them every time, as they've done so for the past 20 years. MD-11s, 773ERs, and 747-8s really do stand alone and this gives LH the wiggle room they need. I know I'll get slammed for saying so but this relationship is about as dead for Boeing as it gets.

But heck, if you could only do business with one of them I'd take EK seven days a week.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: YTZ
Posted 2013-04-17 14:53:02 and read 20684 times.

I actually don't see why EK couldn't order them all at once.

Let's assume that EK is taking delivery over 12 years. So about 2 planes per month. Compare to today's 8.3 frames per month for the 777. It's hardly like Boeing's pipeline would be so impacted that they couldn't service other large customers.

There are advantages to both parties with such an order. EK will get a bigger discount, specs it wants and early delivery. They'll also get the PR of buying $100 billion worth of aircratt. Boeing gets an order book with steady baseline demand. It's so much easier for Boeing to manage production if their orders aren't cominig in batches.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: YTZ
Posted 2013-04-17 14:57:09 and read 20604 times.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 14):
Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 10):welcome to the LH group, A350
Exactly. As much as I'm sure Boeing would love a massive EK launch order, they also need delivery slots for other carriers. I already know of a couple MAX customers that wanted more up front, but Boeing said 'no'. And that's for a plane that will have 4x the production rate!

Why would Boeing worry about an LH order if they could get a 275 frame order from EK?

Big as the LH group is, they'd barely order a fraction of that. And I mean a fraction. Maybe 30-40 frames? Very little space for the 777-X between the A350 and 747-8.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-04-17 15:59:30 and read 19582 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Indeed, but note he says he "may need"

Indeed. EK will need a significant number of those planes, but how much is still to be determined.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 14):
Boeing won't LET him order them all at once, at least with the corresponding firm delivery spots that normally come with firm orders. That would be truly insane.

Most likely they will order them in tranches. Many of the birds will replace other aircraft in the EK-fleet.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 16):
IMHO, it's unlikely that they would order anywhere near that many in a single order. I could easily see them ordering 50-75 firm with another 50 as options in their first order though.

My thoughts exactly!  .

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: davidho1985
Posted 2013-04-17 18:44:59 and read 18294 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 15):
So no need for Boeing any more to balance EK requirements like on the 747-8 . . . they will get their own model 777XEK!

Agree. If Boeing is not happy with the Spec that EK requested, they can simply made a version exclusivly for EK, then a general version for other airlines.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: columba
Posted 2013-04-17 22:53:30 and read 15915 times.

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 18):
And I was making another point, following the thread title: If the 777X meets EK's expectations, i.e. has the range they need, it's going to be not economical for LH (and other carriers) who do not need the range. WB customers have very different priorities, and if you meet one large customer's expectations completely (and that's the number of orders to think about it) , the product will become less attractive for others.

According to a recent statement of the CEO of LH, LH is considering right now the:

A350
the larger variants of the 787
777-8X

The 777-9X however might be an option when the 747-8I is written off according to the CEO.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: FlyingAY
Posted 2013-04-17 23:15:43 and read 15914 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 26):
The 777-9X however might be an option when the 747-8I is written off according to the CEO.

What do you mean by this? The first -8i has just recently joined the fleet. If LH will fly them, say, 20 years I don't see 777-9X being the replacement in 2033...

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: columba
Posted 2013-04-17 23:24:43 and read 15703 times.

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 27):
What do you mean by this? The first -8i has just recently joined the fleet. If LH will fly them, say, 20 years I don't see 777-9X being the replacement in 2033...

Here is the original quote:

Quote:

Lufthansa is also interested in the 777-8X, the equivalent of the 777-300ER, saying it is still in the process of taking delivery of 19 747-8s in what would be the 777-9X-size category. Franz says the -9X could become an option in the long term, but will likely only become available when the 747-8 is largely written off. He claims that would make the aircraft economically viable, even when the more efficient large twin arrives.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/AW_03_25_2013_p39-561017.xml&p=2

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: oldeuropean
Posted 2013-04-18 00:02:02 and read 15154 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 23):
Why would Boeing worry about an LH order if they could get a 275 frame order from EK?

Because a 777x with specs tailored for EK also would keep off not only LH but many other airlines.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: USAF336TFS
Posted 2013-04-18 03:51:20 and read 12532 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 21):
I'd say you'll be disappointed. LH will not order the 777X if past experience is any indication. Where Airbus makes a competing product LH will order from them every time, as they've done so for the past 20 years.

Believe me, I will not lose a wink of sleep over it if they order the A350, but may I remind you that they've just ordered 6 77W frames for Swiss, so I think your assumptions are bit weakened. Of course that doesn't even take into consideration LH Cargo's incoming 777F's, the first of which is due this coming fall.

Nope, I think the 777X has an excellent chance of having LH livery on it.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 29):

Because a 777x with specs tailored for EK also would keep off not only LH but many other airlines.

Unless of course, LH isn't involved with the specification development at all. Recent reports indicate just the opposite.

[Edited 2013-04-18 03:54:49]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Logos
Posted 2013-04-18 03:51:22 and read 12495 times.

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 27):
What do you mean by this? The first -8i has just recently joined the fleet. If LH will fly them, say, 20 years I don't see 777-9X being the replacement in 2033...

Seeing the quote in context above what he seems to mean is "written down"; i.e., fully depreciated. It doesn't mean that they wouldn't be still flying them. At that point, LH might be able to take on the 777-9X in addition to the 748 because of the tax advantages that they would bring, making them effectively cheaper to operate.

Cheers,
Dave in Orlando

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: SYDSpotter
Posted 2013-04-18 05:17:09 and read 11313 times.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 19):
Boeing will absolutely LET him firmly order and put deposits on as many aircraft as he wants. He's just not going to get the first 275 slots, they will offer him the 275 slots over a long time horizon if he wants to do that. They'd be foolish to not take the order if they could get it. But they'd be equally foolish not to save many desirable delivery slots for other airlines.

You'll also find that EK wouldn't want to or wouldn't have the capability to absorb the first 275 in such a short time frame, you need $$$ to fund the receipt/delivery of these planes. The first 275 planes would be delivered in say 3-4 years (assuming 6 -7 planes produced per month). EK are also saying there is only the 'potential' to order up to 275, so no doubt these will be phased orders and delivers if EK do decide to order (and if Boeing go ahead with the project).

[Edited 2013-04-18 05:28:49]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: a380900
Posted 2013-04-18 05:20:03 and read 11261 times.

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 8):
Please, please may these be financed privately or at least not subsidized by U.S. taxpayers if this ends badly.

In this age of too big to fail and quantitative easing, there's no such thing as "the public being off the hook" anymore. The States and Central Banks have become the ultimate guarantors of each and every obligations, even those between private entities. Read the news. It's not beautiful but it is what it is...

[Edited 2013-04-18 05:21:03]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: packsonflight
Posted 2013-04-18 05:34:45 and read 11039 times.

I can not help to wonder how real those 777x figures are. They sound a bit Dreamliner-ish to me. 344t mtow with only 99,500 lb engines. is the current 777 wing so terrible drag wise, that those improvements are possible?

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-04-18 05:36:44 and read 10991 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 20):
and they have made clear that it will will be one widebody type

They have? Do you have a source to confirm that?

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 20):
I'd take them at their word that it will be either 777X or A350.

They are also looking at the 787.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/AW_03_25_2013_p39-561017.xml&p=2

Quote:
According to CEO Christoph Franz, the airline is analyzing the A350-900/-1000 and the 777-8X, plus the larger versions of the 787.
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 20):
I'd say the odds favor the triple 7.

They may well order the 777, but they will also need something smaller than a 777-8X. If they are only going to order a single type, then IMHO, the A350 gives them the best flexibility with the -900 & -1000.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-04-18 06:36:41 and read 10108 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 20):
Lufthansa isn't Emirates and they have vastly different fleet plans, and they have made clear that it will will be one widebody type. Based on those statements, I'd take them at their word that it will be either 777X or A350.

One widebody? It's already clear they'll be having A380 and 747-8i for a while. Do you mean one twin-engine widebody?

Quoting wingman (Reply 21):
LH will not order the 777X if past experience is any indication.

To me the past is not prologue and LH is just the kind of outfit that is confident enough to change directions when it makes sense for them to do so.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 29):
Because a 777x with specs tailored for EK also would keep off not only LH but many other airlines.

We shall see. One could have made the argument that the 777W has too much range for the bulk of its users, but it's selling as fast as Boeing can make them a decade after introduction.

Quoting packsonflight (Reply 34):
is the current 777 wing so terrible drag wise, that those improvements are possible?

In a word, yes. If it weren't, then the A350 would not be forcing Boeing's hand, would it? The current 777 wing is early 90s tech (think of the days of the original Pentium CPUs and you won't be all that far off) and made with good old aluminum. Everyone who has the resources is moving to CFRP wings because they are smoother, lighter and can be shaped with more precision.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: USAF336TFS
Posted 2013-04-18 07:01:28 and read 9700 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 36):
One widebody? It's already clear they'll be having A380 and 747-8i for a while. Do you mean one twin-engine widebody?

Yes thank you for clearing that up for everyone.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 36):
To me the past is not prologue and LH is just the kind of outfit that is confident enough to change directions when it makes sense for them to do so.

        

LH has made it clear, if not to those cheerleaders on A.Net, that they intend on having aircraft from both major manufacturers.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: frigatebird
Posted 2013-04-18 07:25:42 and read 9322 times.

Quoting ferpe (Thread starter):
"“We’re working closely to get to specifications we’re happy with,” Emirates President Tim Clark said in an interview in Paris today. “That means layouts, the seats, the galleys, getting the weights right, getting the fuel burn.”

And, without doubt, the right price         

Quoting Revelation (Reply 36):
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 20):Lufthansa isn't Emirates and they have vastly different fleet plans, and they have made clear that it will will be one widebody type. Based on those statements, I'd take them at their word that it will be either 777X or A350.
One widebody? It's already clear they'll be having A380 and 747-8i for a while. Do you mean one twin-engine widebody?

IIRC, LH was said to want just four widebody types for their whole group. I don't think that would be possible anymore, because it wants to replace their A340s soon, and with A333s and 77Ws on order the only option would be 777-8. But that one still is very much a paper airplane which won't EIS before 2021 (if at all), and I don't think LH will wait that long. So, either 787-9/10 or A350-900/1000 are the most likely choice. It would surprise me hugely if they wouldn't order the A350, but anything can happen, so even a 787 order.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 36):
To me the past is not prologue and LH is just the kind of outfit that is confident enough to change directions when it makes sense for them to do so.

   I'm sure LH will choose what product makes the best sense for them, either Boeing or Airbus.


Quoting Revelation (Reply 36):
Quoting packsonflight (Reply 34):is the current 777 wing so terrible drag wise, that those improvements are possible?
In a word, yes.

It seems not so long ago when I read here on A-net how efficient the 777 wing is, not even needing winglets. Time flies..
  

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: YTZ
Posted 2013-04-18 07:27:41 and read 9301 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 29):
Because a 777x with specs tailored for EK also would keep off not only LH but many other airlines.

If EK actually could place an order that huge, Boeing could afford to lose quite a few other customers for that airplane.

Also, there aren't exactly a lot of choices going forward between the A350-1000 and the 380. The 748 will probably stop selling by the end of this decade.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 32):

You'll also find that EK wouldn't want to or wouldn't have the capability to absorb the first 275 in such a short time frame, you need $$$ to fund the receipt/delivery of these planes. The first 275 planes would be delivered in say 3-4 years (assuming 6 -7 planes produced per month). EK are also saying there is only the 'potential' to order up to 275, so no doubt these will be phased orders and delivers if EK do decide to order (and if Boeing go ahead with the project).

Why 275 over 3-4 years? Why not 275 over 12 years? EK's average fleet age is 6-7 years. That tells me that they keep their aircraft 12-14 years. So assuming that's true, why could EK not spread out orders over 12 years?

EK won't be ordering many more A380s. And it will want to upsize from many of those 77Ws and eventually 351s. I don't think a 275 aircraft acquisition program would be all that problematic.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-04-18 08:18:22 and read 8493 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 37):
LH has made it clear, if not to those cheerleaders on A.Net, that they intend on having aircraft from both major manufacturers.

Which they already have, so ordering 777s is not required to achieve that goal.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 39):
EK won't be ordering many more A380s.

They've said they want 130, so another significant order is already on the cards. Then there's fleet roll-over replacements...

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: falkerker
Posted 2013-04-18 08:21:17 and read 8461 times.

Is it even possible to finance such an order? I mean, how many zeroes would there be on that check?  . That is the GDP of a small country!!!

How could they finance such an operation?

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-04-18 08:42:58 and read 8172 times.

Quoting falkerker (Reply 41):
Is it even possible to finance such an order?

Financing is exactly why EK can afford to purchase so many planes. For what they pay to purchase a single plane outright, they can pay the monthly lease or mortgage on ten.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: queb
Posted 2013-04-18 08:54:25 and read 8015 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 37):
LH has made it clear, if not to those cheerleaders on A.Net, that they intend on having aircraft from both major manufacturers.

Mmm...   

Lufthansa Prepares Wide-Body Purchase That Will Favor One Vendor

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-04-18 09:18:16 and read 7615 times.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 37):
LH has made it clear, if not to those cheerleaders on A.Net, that they intend on having aircraft from both major manufacturers.

Which could imply that a 777X order won't necessarily exclude A350's.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 39):
EK won't be ordering many more A380s

I wouldn't be that surprised if eventually EK end up ordering more A380's in the future than they have ordered to date.

They are on record as saying that 90 isn't nearly enough, and there's no reason why most of those won't get rolled over to more updated versions of the a380 in the years to come

Quoting scbriml (Reply 40):
They've said they want 130, so another significant order is already on the cards. Then there's fleet roll-over replacements...

  

Quoting queb (Reply 43):

Lufthansa Prepares Wide-Body Purchase That Will Favor One Vendor

Although curiously the article attributes this "favour one vendor" stance to the purchase of 50 frames, whilst it's clear their ultimate replacement needs will run into hundreds across the widebody fleet..

Rgds

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: ETinCaribe
Posted 2013-04-18 09:38:09 and read 7298 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Wait for him to put down a deposit for 275 or even a significant fraction of that and then we'll talk about it.

I don't think EK has anything to prove to the OEMs. It is one (if not the most) coveted airliner, especially since they only use pricier WBs.
Largest 777 operator with 110+
Largest A380 operator with 30+ in service

My guess is that it will be a 180 firm and 95 option order.

Quoting davidho1985 (Reply 25):
Agree. If Boeing is not happy with the Spec that EK requested, they can simply made a version exclusivly for EK, then a general version for other airlines.

        

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-04-18 09:46:22 and read 7206 times.

The article also notes that this order would be the first tranche, so I expect that if LH is looking at a single-vendor solution, it will cover both this 50 frame order and follow-on orders.

As often as I have said that LH wants an Airbus solution, I have come to believe that the 787 family as a whole makes a pretty competitive offering for all the 200-300 seat widebodies operated by the LH group. I still won't be surprised if they chose the A350, but I will no longer be surprised if they chose the 787.

The 777X, on the other hand...  

(And yes, I know LH have said the 787-8 is too small for them, but I do not believe it is necessarily too small for OS and SN.)

[Edited 2013-04-18 09:47:57]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Atlflyer
Posted 2013-04-18 10:28:15 and read 6574 times.

Quoting queb (Reply 43):

If they are replacing planes that are between 200-300 seats as the article states, it seems Boeing would be the best choice.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: queb
Posted 2013-04-18 11:19:36 and read 6370 times.

Quoting Atlflyer (Reply 47):
If they are replacing planes that are between 200-300 seats as the article states, it seems Boeing would be the best choice.

Not necessarily because LH interior cabin configs are generally more generous (less pax) than manufacturers std configs. I see 787-9/-10X or A350-900/-1000 order from LH, IMO Airbus is more likely.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: SonomaFlyer
Posted 2013-04-18 11:41:05 and read 6260 times.

LH has no ULH type routes so they will look at fuel burn over given distances as well as cargo capacity over the same stage lengths. Both companies have compelling cases to make so it should prove interesting!

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: columba
Posted 2013-04-18 12:35:10 and read 6053 times.

I said it already on this site and I will say it again: the 787-10X is the plane LH wants   They are pushing Boeing to get the plane they want just as EK is doing with the 777X

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: USAF336TFS
Posted 2013-04-18 14:08:12 and read 5777 times.

Quoting queb (Reply 43):
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 37):
LH has made it clear, if not to those cheerleaders on A.Net, that they intend on having aircraft from both major manufacturers.

Mmm...

Lufthansa Prepares Wide-Body Purchase That Will Favor One Vendor

Thank you sir. Still there are those who still doubt what they read.  
Quoting scbriml (Reply 40):
Which they already have, so ordering 777s is not required to achieve that goal.

The same could be said of the A350... It could go either way. That is the one certainty.

[Edited 2013-04-18 14:11:20]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: wingman
Posted 2013-04-18 16:12:32 and read 5532 times.

If I have to eat my hat on this one it will be one of the meals of my life.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-04-18 22:13:57 and read 5209 times.

275 pieces is a large amount of money, however, it is only 25 per cent of total sales of 777 so far. Boeing can't afford to listen to EK only and scare off LH, IAG and others.
I highly doubt it's going to be an EK-only specification. They will purchase the 777x anyway since Airbus has no alternative to 7779x for the time being. Boeing knows that very well.
There are many 744 to be replaced in the next decade and Boeing better doesn't bet on one horse only.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: flyglobal
Posted 2013-04-19 01:30:00 and read 4932 times.

I read between the lines in Clarks comments, that he pulls up the 275 units to strengthen the EK position with Boeing.
As it was with the 748-8i, EKs interest is more longrange capability and they may trade in some other performances for that. On the opposite this may make the 777x for European Airlines, who do not need such long haul capability and would prefer the spec tuned more for them a bit less capable.

This battle seems to be ongoing and Boeing is in the middle, while European Airlines, who do all to fight against the middle east carriers may want to avoid EK custom tailored planes.

There is a risk that when boeing follows EK wishes too much, that not only the LH, but also the IAG potential orders are more at risk to go to Airbus.

Regards

Flyglobal.

[Edited 2013-04-19 01:34:43]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: SYDSpotter
Posted 2013-04-19 03:52:17 and read 4730 times.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 39):
Why 275 over 3-4 years? Why not 275 over 12 years? EK's average fleet age is 6-7 years. That tells me that they keep their aircraft 12-14 years. So assuming that's true, why could EK not spread out orders over 12 years?

What I was trying to say was that it would be 3-4 years before the first 275 777's roll off the line. I agree, EK would take them over 10+ years.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: SonomaFlyer
Posted 2013-04-19 10:49:58 and read 4379 times.

Some examples of the trade-offs folks are referring to between what LH wants and EK wants would be helpful. From a concept point of view, EK wants to fly a full load ~8,500 miles. LH doesn't need that range but would not that same a/c be able to instead derate the engines to cut fuel costs further or would that even be needed?

We have to assume EK wants full range fully loaded. I'm not certain the -9X could do a full load to LAX from DXB as the spec currently stands from what we know.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: Jetstar315
Posted 2013-04-19 19:26:45 and read 3962 times.

Emirates interest in the 777-9X makes you wonder what influence that may have on any future QF fleet replacement/expansion!!!

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-04-19 20:15:27 and read 3862 times.

Quoting Jetstar315 (Reply 57):
Emirates interest in the 777-9X makes you wonder what influence that may have on any future QF fleet replacement/expansion!!!

QF fleet expansion!??

Don't think there will be any; QF will have A380s and 787s as the mainstay of its international fleet and any growth in the sub-A380 bracket will come from larger 787s, including the -10, whenever it happens.

I would think that, with the 787 now flying again, Boeing can focus more attention on finally (how long have we been talking about it here?!) getting the 787-10 design frozen and launched; whether they will do so when the 777X launch seems imminent remains to be seen; perhaps it might wait until net year.

Anyway, delighted to see that the 787 is finally back in the air.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: mymorningsong
Posted 2013-04-19 21:48:54 and read 3748 times.

I understand why 737/320 became neo's vs. Y1 because you have so many customers interested in just an incremental update sooner than later. But if you have some big customers making huge commitments to 777 over a longer timeframe, why wouldn't they want Y3 instead of 777X. Where does the 777X rate between 777 and Y3. Boeing can't worry about 747I at this point. Let it go.

I guess I'm wondering how long massive 777X orders delay Y3. Seems like EK is the airline most capable of looking long term of eventual efficiency. Or is their strategy just about buying new and selling those in 10 years?

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-04-19 23:18:35 and read 3607 times.

Emirates could go for the 8LX 9400nm range, that would make it to all their long range targets with 350 seats. Currently they can not make it with 350 seats.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: StickShaker
Posted 2013-04-20 04:04:45 and read 3367 times.

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 59):
But if you have some big customers making huge commitments to 777 over a longer timeframe, why wouldn't they want Y3 instead of 777X. Where does the 777X rate between 777 and Y3.

You could be opening a Pandora's box with that one mymorningsong.
Airlines would always prefer a new platform to a derivative but there are limits to how often the OEM's can launch new programs - they are also obliged to extract as much value as possible from existing platforms. The earliest that Y3 could have been launched was well into the 2020's but once the 777X is launched that will move further out. That Boeing is set to launch the 777X indicates that neither Boeing nor the airlines were satisfied with just incremental updates to the 77W until a Y3 launch came along. Boeing no doubt considered that strategy too risky in the presence of a new competitor like the 35J.

Pursuing the 777X strategy means that Boeing will be burdened with whatever legacy issues the 777 platform imposes for quite some time. The most obvious issue is a fuselage that is a touch too narrow for a premium 10 abreast layout - no doubt there will be numerous less obvious issues as well.

It is difficult to judge where the 777X would sit between the 777 and Y3 at this time because Y3 is very much an unknown quantity. I think it is fair to say that the 777X is pushing the 777 platform further than Boeing have pushed any other platform.


Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 59):
I guess I'm wondering how long massive 777X orders delay Y3.

Probably quite a while given the size and scope of the 777X program (and the need to recoup all that R&D). If it is successful (no reason to believe it won't be) then there is no need to worry about Y3 for quite some time.



Regards,
StickShaker

[Edited 2013-04-20 04:16:14]

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-04-20 08:22:52 and read 3137 times.

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 59):
But if you have some big customers making huge commitments to 777 over a longer timeframe, why wouldn't they want Y3 instead of 777X.

There could be numerous reasons, not the least of which is availability. Boeing can get the 777X out much, much sooner than they can get the 'Y3' ready, and if the 777X is as competitive as it is rumoured to be, I don't see the need to rush into another clean sheet project when they've just come out of one. With the 737MAX and 787-9 and 787-10 on its plate, I doubt there is the resources available for Boeing to invest in an all new program. A more cost effective, and (relatively) simpler project such as the 777X makes more sense.

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 59):
Where does the 777X rate between 777 and Y3.

The 777X will be a significant improvement over the current 777. As proposed, the 777-9X will have 21% better fuel burn per seat than the 777-300ER and 16% better cash operating costs per seat. It is also larger than the 777-300ER and A350-1000 which, given the ever increasing demand for higher density 10-abreast seating on the 777-300ER, means that there is a market for larger 777s, which is where the 777-9X slots in.

As the 'Y3' is not even on the drawing board, let alone defined, it is impossible to compare the 777X with the 'Y3'.

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 59):
I guess I'm wondering how long massive 777X orders delay Y3

I would not expect to see the 'Y3' until the early to mid 2030s. After the EIS of the 787-9, 787-10, 737MAX and 777X, I believe Boeing will spend much of the 2020s and some of the 2030s developing the 'Y1' and the 'Y3'.

Topic: RE: Order 275 Pieces (777X) And You Bend The Spec
Username: YTZ
Posted 2013-04-20 11:31:49 and read 2904 times.

Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 53):
Boeing can't afford to listen to EK only and scare off LH, IAG and others.

Scare them off? How so? Not a lot of choice between an A350-1000 and the 747-8i or more relevant going forward, the A380.

The other airlines will buy the 777-9X whether it is optimized for EK or not if they need the lift. The other alternatives for them are buying A380s (possibly too much lift), passing up on additional business or using smaller aircraft to increase frequencies. But let's be a clear. A 777-9X optimized for EK will still be a 777-9X, an aircraft that stands alone in its class.

As for the 777-8X, I don't think it's all that relevant. It won't compete well with the A350-1000 and personally, I don't think Boeing will offer it. They'll skip right ahead to the 777-8LX.


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