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Topic: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: flyinghippo
Posted 2013-05-20 09:29:45 and read 39162 times.

With the 787 finally back in the air, and 789 ready for production, I'd imagine Boeing's design team will be busy with new derivatives of 737 and 777 - 737 Max and 777-X families.

While those derivatives will be an improvement on the current 737 and 777s, they're still considered an existing model/design.

Before Boeing introduced the 737 MAX and 777-X, there were discussions of Y1 and Y3, which were supposed to be completely re-designed plan that would replace 737 and 777, based on new technologies learned from 787.

Now that Boeing is focused on new derivatives instead of a brand new design, when do you think Boeing will introduce a brand new designed plane (797)? Would it be a true 757/767 replacement design? Or a brand new VLA (Doubt it)? 777 replacement?

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-05-20 09:37:33 and read 39167 times.

Boeing's next commercial aircraft will be the NSA / Y1, which will replace the 737MAX family. Boeing preferred to launch NSA instead of the MAX, but the market was not willing to wait once Airbus launched the A320neo.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-20 10:22:03 and read 38836 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Boeing's next commercial aircraft will be the NSA / Y1

Boeing sold the 737 Original/Classic for ~30 years, Next Generation for ~20 years, and maybe the Max will recoup the capex even quicker? 15 year separation would still be a 2032 EIS, does that mean no new aircraft for 20 years (787, 2011 EIS)?

2020s will be busy with the 779, 778, 788LR, 77XF, 788F, maybe a 781ER but I would like to see concerted effort put into the X-48/BWB with a larger prototype and maybe even something for military use late in the decade.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-05-20 12:52:12 and read 38384 times.

BWB development will probably be driven by the US Department of Defense's need for a new super-heavy lifter to replace the Lockheed C-5 Galaxy, though with the C-5M Super Galaxy entering the fleet, that need may be well into the future.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: flyingalex
Posted 2013-05-20 13:01:36 and read 38292 times.

Whatever it is, you can be sure it will be a twin and have engines under the wings.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-05-20 13:05:40 and read 38254 times.

Quoting flyinghippo (Thread starter):
Would it be a true 757/767 replacement design?

I think you meant to say "737". The 787 is already the true 757/767 replacement design.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: SoJo
Posted 2013-05-20 13:32:58 and read 38080 times.

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 4):
Whatever it is, you can be sure it will be a twin and have engines under the wings.

Surely in the future, one engine will be enough the way it's going  

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-05-20 13:35:15 and read 38068 times.

Quoting SoJo (Reply 6):
Surely in the future, one engine will be enough the way it's going

Considering the FAA requires diversion to the nearest suitable air field anytime a twin engine loses an engine, I'd doubt it. That would be a pretty short flight. I'm sure a one engine airplane would have a challenge getting 330 minute ETOPS certification too.   Unless of course, you were joking as you should have been.

[Edited 2013-05-20 13:37:50]

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: SoJo
Posted 2013-05-20 13:37:04 and read 38037 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 7):
Unless of course, you were joking as you should have been.

I was  

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: flyinghippo
Posted 2013-05-20 14:15:26 and read 37808 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 5):
I think you meant to say "737". The 787 is already the true 757/767 replacement design.

I see 787 more as a 767 replacement, even though 787 is bigger than 767.

757 is sorta replaced by 739ER, but in my mind, there's still no true replacement for 757 until it could fly across the pond with a full load.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-20 14:23:09 and read 37764 times.

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 9):
there's still no true replacement for 757

An article on flight global today is suggesting that a 737 Max 8 HGW is in the works. Only need 500 additional nm to match the 752. It obviously would be about 20% smaller but it could get a decent amount of the routes done probably about 25% cheaper to operate. Add that to the list of projects in the 2020's.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-05-20 14:36:09 and read 37657 times.

The Next New Design for Boeing is...?

18 months late, and the heads of the middle east carriers are irate.

Just kidding, I just felt the need to jump the gun.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-05-20 14:40:46 and read 37612 times.

Quoting Prost (Reply 11):
The Next New Design for Boeing is...

Hopefully an update on:



Getting a bit dated, IMHO. Airbus might not like the slogan either!

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-20 14:45:04 and read 37576 times.

Perhaps a design with 1 pilot in the cockpit.

Boeing says it is looking at the concept that airliners in the future might have only one pilot on board

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: cessna53996
Posted 2013-05-20 14:59:45 and read 37483 times.

I want to see the 757 go back into production!

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: PEK777
Posted 2013-05-20 16:03:02 and read 36233 times.

Maybe boeing could restart 757 production and make a 757NG? Do they still have the tooling?

  

Sorry, I had to. It has been at least a week since this has come up.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2013-05-20 16:27:07 and read 35819 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...on-to-hit-bbj-range-target-386097/

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-05-20 16:28:33 and read 35792 times.

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 15):
Maybe boeing could restart 757 production and make a 757NG? Do they still have the tooling?

Remember the recent thread on A.net topics that regularly come up? This one is high on the list. Ranks up there with who will buy AS and when will the last NW DC-9 be retired.

From what I understand, they no longer have the tooling. 757 is an awesome airplane, but so was the 707. Time to move on.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: bueb0g
Posted 2013-05-20 17:02:46 and read 35268 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 13):
Perhaps a design with 1 pilot in the cockpit.

Highly unlikely... Perhaps the 737 replacement's replacement, but certainly not Boeing's next clean sheet.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: AvroArrow
Posted 2013-05-20 17:22:42 and read 35002 times.

Don't forget that the single pilot design requires cockpit accomodations for the dog.........old joke. Although I'd be willing to bet there will be some sort of T7 NEO along the lines of the 747-8. But I guess thats not a completely new design. So I've gotta go with the 737 replacement. Isn't speculation fun?

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-05-20 17:25:49 and read 34979 times.

Quoting cessna53996 (Reply 14):

The 757 is one of the most beautiful birds out there. I'd love to see the 757 get revived with all the bells and whistles (sky interior) that is being lavished on the 737. And to think when Boeing created the 737 it was supposed to be a short range/haul shuttle type plane. Maybe a 757 done like the 747-800 (windows etc.)

Maybe day dreaming here but here are my ideas.

1. HSCT series with a combination Delta and swept wing design.

2. The revival and reboot of the UDF program for short to medium haul routes.

#1 could be a by-product of a military version. Just like the 707 was back in the day. Just saying...

http://www.aee.odu.edu/img/aerosystems/jpg/12_hsct.jpg
http://www.aee.odu.edu/img/aerosystems/jpg/14_northroptlf.jpg

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: nomorerjs
Posted 2013-05-20 17:26:26 and read 34943 times.

Over budget, 3 years late, and with a battery used by Airbus! But it will probably sell very well.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: motorhussy
Posted 2013-05-20 18:41:14 and read 32687 times.

Sonic Cruiser anyone?

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-05-20 19:25:40 and read 31355 times.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 22):
Sonic Cruiser anyone?

Boeing R&D continues to play with the design based on patent filings over the past decade...

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: BD338
Posted 2013-05-20 19:47:07 and read 30694 times.

pure fantasy and speculation, I'd like to think...

a) a new focus to reclaim a market share of the sub-150 seater market. Maybe a super efficient turboprop.
b) an all new 737

either way, resources and capital are tied up for the rest of this decade at least with the current programs. 2030 EIS at the earliest for the 737 replacement.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: cschleic
Posted 2013-05-20 20:07:06 and read 30716 times.

Quoting AvroArrow (Reply 19):
Don't forget that the single pilot design requires cockpit accomodations for the dog.........old joke.

Or the inflatable autopilot???

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 4):
Whatever it is, you can be sure it will be a twin and have engines under the wings.

Sad but true.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-05-20 20:56:16 and read 29560 times.

Quoting cschleic (Reply 25):
Quoting flyingalex (Reply 4):
Whatever it is, you can be sure it will be a twin and have engines under the wings.

Sad but true.

Unless it's a Blended Wing Body or Sonic Cruiser type airplane. (Just making a general statement here, not that I have any reason to believe such.)

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: KELPkid
Posted 2013-05-20 21:38:33 and read 29059 times.

I have no doubts...the next new design for Boeing is...

The 797!!!   

[Edited 2013-05-20 21:39:24]

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: redzeppelin
Posted 2013-05-20 21:50:36 and read 28637 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 27):

I wouldn't be so sure. I wouldn't be surprised to see them skip 797 and give the next new aircraft an 8*8 label. It nicely pays respect to the 787 as the bridge to a new generation of technology. So the NSA could be called the 838 as the 737 successor. Just a thought. Of course, when spoken, "838" sounds a lot like "A380." So maybe not.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: affirmative
Posted 2013-05-21 02:12:59 and read 21777 times.

When boeing presented the BWB design it was a welcome idea. After further studies I've heard that the pax layout of such a plane would be difficult since the outer rows would have quite a bit of vertical movement and would cause motion sickness. Obviously there are solutions to this in terms of fbw designs which inhibits fast aileron movement to counteract the vertical movements. For cargo I believe the BWB is a clear winner though, floor space would be second to none and the uplift would be incredible.

For self loading cargo I think the MIT/NASA and Airbis designs are closer to what we will see in the near to medium term future. Advances in composites will make designs like drop shape or double bubble feasible. Engines shrouded in the empannage with hybrid drives and long thin wings for less drag. What will happen with speeds is quite open, the general consensus I feel is that cruise speeds will largely stay the same or maybe even get a bit slower. Private jets seem to go in a different direction though with speed becoming more of a sales point.

The MIT/NASA double bubble

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/17j7pxm3qu79ljpg/k-bigpic.jpg

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: spantax
Posted 2013-05-21 02:41:13 and read 21005 times.

Quoting BD338 (Reply 24):
Maybe a super efficient turboprop

I would be delighted. A new A-B battle   (ATR belongs largely to EADS-Airbus).

And for those who say that demand for such a big turboprop doesn't exists... well, what are the marketing guys paid for? Ryanair invented-reinvented somehow the LCC concept in Europe and look how healthy they are right now.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: Devilfish
Posted 2013-05-21 03:19:16 and read 19974 times.

Why is there even speculation?...this of course!    .....

.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fl...ing%20747-thumb-560x324-160757.jpg

Quoting spantax (Reply 30):
Quoting BD338 (Reply 24):
Maybe a super efficient turboprop

I would be delighted. A new A-B battle

Here is Boeing's candidate...    .....

.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fl...n%20rotor-thumb-560x197-160760.jpg

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: parapente
Posted 2013-05-21 04:43:09 and read 17488 times.

In some ways the answer was posted on reply 1!

"Boeing's next commercial aircraft will be the NSA / Y1, which will replace the 737MAX family. Boeing preferred to launch NSA instead of the MAX, but the market was not willing to wait once Airbus launched the A320neo".

There is no doubt what so ever that Boeing wanted to build a new plane that dropped the 737-8 size and add an additional size after the -9. What the design(s) was.were who knows as the airline execs would have all signed NDA's.There were glimpses of single and double aisle aircraft and differing wing/engine combinations. But I guess we will never know - as they went for a 737 refresh.

BUT.
Nothing stands still in this industry. Technology evolves and so does the environment in which it operates.
So the next aircraft (It will most likley be a 737 replacement) will have to be.

Even more fuel efficient. (Mark 2 geared fans with planetary gearing?)
Thin laminar wings?
5.5 degree landings or more
Very,very quiet inside AND (of course) out.
V Low CO2
A real game changer in every way.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: NDiesel
Posted 2013-05-21 04:47:48 and read 17335 times.

What happened to this proposal, the BWB? I believe I read somewhere that the aircraft would be able to use current airport layouts and runways.






Imagine it with skylights. That'd be an experience.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: parapente
Posted 2013-05-21 05:13:07 and read 16367 times.

http://www.gizmag.com/nasa-x48c-blended-wing/26010/

Ahh yes the x48c! So beautiful (and built in Britain - but designed in the US of course). Would love to talk about this future plane. We should be talking about it. But IMHO Boeing lost their nerve.So we will not - well not for a loooong time.
They should NOT have revamped the 747.(8)
That has bled them of cash. So then they..
HAD to revamp the 777 as a cheap alternative.
If only they had had the guts to replace both with one aircraft (as they had planned)- the X48C (which is what is illustrated above.
The Cranfield design was taken from a Boeing single passenger deck design able to carry 350 -400 pax. But willprobably be military first now sadly.

20% plus more efficient! and dead quiet with shielded engines. What might have been....

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-21 05:16:43 and read 16216 times.

Quoting parapente (Reply 32):
game changer

I agree with your comments parapente. However I am getting so sick of hearing those two words. I want to start a petition to ban them and make people explain what 'game' is 'changing'.

I agree that the 737 redo is most likely. I wish it was the the BWB and would die a happy man if it was a new Boeing 314 Clipper. Who needs airports; do you know how many open docks there are in the middle of town in Hong Kong, Manhattan, Bangkok, Rio, Miami, Boston, Istanbul, Tokyo...? I would say that O&D would probably be important for it to to work   .

tortugamon

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: na
Posted 2013-05-21 05:24:11 and read 15892 times.

737 replacement by the mid- to late 20s, and a joint 747/777replacement by 2030, thats what I expect.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: dabpit
Posted 2013-05-21 07:14:46 and read 12140 times.

Boeing needs a 717 replacement to compete with Bombardier and Embraer. They also need a 757 replacement like a lot of people have been saying possibly a 757NG.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: N62NA
Posted 2013-05-21 08:37:35 and read 9302 times.

Quoting flyinghippo (Thread starter):
Now that Boeing is focused on new derivatives instead of a brand new design, when do you think Boeing will introduce a brand new designed plane (797)? Would it be a true 757/767 replacement design? Or a brand new VLA (Doubt it)? 777 replacement?

The brand new designed plane will not be introduced prior to 2040 and sadly, probably half the people reading this will be dead before they get a chance to set foot in it.

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 4):
Whatever it is, you can be sure it will be a twin and have engines under the wings.

Yeah. I'm guessing it will be more "evolution" as opposed to "revolution" (which we really haven't had since the jump from props to jets in the late 50s).

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: parapente
Posted 2013-05-21 09:35:40 and read 7434 times.

Yeah. I'm guessing it will be more "evolution" as opposed to "revolution" (which we really haven't had since the jump from props to jets in the late 50s).

Thats what you get when you have a duopoly.

They may sound like they are fighting cat and dog but I can assure you they are both perfectly happy with the way things are.

BTW they are both perfectly happy to let the "little boys" play in the mud with the (often loss making) 100 - 130 seaters.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: drgmobile
Posted 2013-05-21 09:52:11 and read 7306 times.

Quoting dabpit (Reply 37):
Boeing needs a 717 replacement to compete with Bombardier and Embraer. They also need a 757 replacement like a lot of people have been saying possibly a 757NG.

No it doesn't actually. Boeing has a strong hold on the larger side of the market and doesn't need to be all things to all people.

I always find these discussions of "replacement for" aircraft the be a bit narrowminded. An airline looks at aircraft based on the fleet composition it needs to be competitive now and over the next 20 or so years. Whether or not this involves an aircraft with the same capacity as an existing model in its fleet is moot. Often an aircraft order will represent a change in strategy based on what's going on in the market.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-05-21 10:12:36 and read 7113 times.

What with all of the McDonnell influence they have probably developed a distinct aversion to new designs. Remember the biggest thing that drove MD under was that they refused to do a clean-sheet design, and instead kept trying to do warm-overs of their existing (two) models. Is that same mindset present in Boeing's board today? At least they seem willing to put a new wing on the 777X (which MD was unwilling to do for the MD-11, which is one of the biggest reasons it has had as many problems as it has had), and they really did seem interested in building the NSA instead of the MAX, but they could not get customer support. With all of the delays from the 787 fresh in everybody's memory, and both of the other major lines getting revamped, I suspect it will be a long time before the next clean sheet design. By then maybe the McDonnell influence will have faded into the background. For the record, I hold McDonnell responsible for the demise of Douglas; they were the worst possible merger partner for them. They completely destroyed what was at the time the greatest builder of airliners.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2013-05-21 11:02:22 and read 6922 times.

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 40):

I always find these discussions of "replacement for" aircraft the be a bit narrowminded.

  

What's the 707 replacement? There is none. Honestly, the 757 is the closest. How about the 727 replacement? The 757 kinda fit the bill.

What's the A300/A310 replacement? There is none. And there wasn't a stratocruiser replacement, either.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):
I agree with your comments parapente. However I am getting so sick of hearing those two words. I want to start a petition to ban them and make people explain what 'game' is 'changing'.

The only "game" changer will be a *significantly* faster aircraft. I'm not talking 10%. I'm talking 100%. I am not interested in paying more fare to go SFO-SYD in 12.5 hours instead of 14. Now, make it six or seven hours and you have my attention. My rough guestimate is that the CASM (given similar seating density) would need to be no more than 150-200% of a state-of-the-art subsonic competitor.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: drgmobile
Posted 2013-05-21 11:05:51 and read 6891 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 42):
What's the 707 replacement? There is none. Honestly, the 757 is the closest. How about the 727 replacement? The 757 kinda fit the bill.

What's the A300/A310 replacement? There is none. And there wasn't a stratocruiser replacement, either.

Again, you're looking narrowly at capacity and not at the mission. It's the mission that's important. The replacement for the 707 was the 747, DC-10 and L1011 that assumed the bulk of long-haul traffic in the 1970s and 80s. The 727 was replaced not only by the 757 but also by a host of narrowbodies, most notably next generation 737s, MD-80s and Airbus narrowbodies.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: affirmative
Posted 2013-05-21 12:15:47 and read 6565 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 42):

I'm not sure I agree with the faster aircraft. Mainly because the trend is going more towards lower fares and energy efficiency. Those interested in paying a premium for faster travel will be in the private jet segment where I definitely see development towards faster planes. The short/medium haul planes I think will rather get slower but more efficient. Long haul will likely be similar to today but with better amenities such as high speed Internet and maybe even conference capabilities (BWB sure has the floor space). The business people I worked with said that the duration of the flight is not a problem if it can be used, some even told me they work better on planes because of the undisturbed environment.

Sure, I would love to be able to do Europe - Australia n 4-5 hours or US west coast - Europe in 3-4 hours. But even tough the technology may be feasible the infrastructure changes makes it less probable..

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: ghifty
Posted 2013-05-21 12:27:14 and read 6493 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 41):
Is that same mindset present in Boeing's board today?

No. If that was the case we wouldn't have seen the 787.

MD only had two distinct commercial products.. the 717/MD-90 and MD-11 at the time they folded. The 717 and MD-90, at least according to a.net members, are fairly competitive with Boeing and Airbus offerings. However, the MD-11, in addition to not delivering on spec, was simply more inefficient compared to Boeing's twin-engined offering. Furthermore, because carriers could go with either Boeing/Airbus and have a more efficient aircraft in the upper ranges along with fleet commonality and a "stopgap" between 717/MD-90 and MD-11 capacity, MD wasn't very competitive in their final years.

Boeing can continue warming over designs because there isn't anything revolutionary to be done. A one-engined 737? Yeah, right. MD had the opportunity to create a clean-sheet twin-engined wide-body but didn't; instead they warmed over a trijet when everyone was trending to twins. The issue isn't warming over, it's *what* is warmed over.

Also, the largest reason the Y-1 wasn't pursued was because customers didn't want to wait.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-05-21 12:28:07 and read 6474 times.

Quoting affirmative (Reply 44):
But even tough the technology may be feasible the infrastructure changes makes it less probable..

The technology exists to make faster travel possible, but not economically feasible. There certainly have been advances in technology since the Concorde, but not of a scale that changes the prohibitive cost of going faster than sound. People can speculate all they want about breakthroughs that might happen; but nobody knows whether or not they actually will. What exists now is that as you approach the speed of sound, energy requirements increase dramatically; I believe that once the sound barrier is crossed they decrease slightly, but then increase again as speed increases. This is physics, and no conceivable breakthrough is going to change it. Until there is a substantially cheaper form of energy supersonic passenger travel is going to be prohibitively expensive, to say nothing of the cost of developing aircraft to do it.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: N62NA
Posted 2013-05-21 12:54:49 and read 6335 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 46):
Until there is a substantially cheaper form of energy supersonic passenger travel is going to be prohibitively expensive, to say nothing of the cost of developing aircraft to do it.

Right. Which is why people will still be flying around in 737s/A320s, 787s/A350s and 777s/A380s for the next 50 years.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: rcair1
Posted 2013-05-21 12:56:30 and read 6337 times.

Quoting SoJo (Reply 6):

Surely in the future, one engine will be enough the way it's going

A man was flying with his grandmother from her home in San Francisco to his in Hawaii - it was her first flight.
1 hour after departure:
- Ah-hem - this is your captain speaking - we've lost engine #1 due to an oil leak. No worries, no sweat, we'll reach Honolulu just fine - but about 1 hr late.

45 minutes later
- Ah-hem - this is your captain speaking. We've lost engine #4 due to a small fire. It is burning rather nicely out there! No worries, no sweat - we'll reach Honolulu but we'd be about 2.5 hours late.

1 hr more...
- Ah-hem - ummm - this is your captain speaking. We've lost engine #2 due to a bird strike. High flyin' little bugger. No worries, no sweat, we'll reach Honolulu, but about 4 hrs late.

At which point Grandma turns to her son and says - boy - if we loose engine #3 we'll be up here all day!

---
Of course - no engines. For a reduced fare - your seat is equipped with pedals and you pump your way to your destination
Welcome to GreenWay Airlines - our safety record is perfect as long as you keep pedaling.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: zippyjet
Posted 2013-05-21 15:07:39 and read 5988 times.

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 43):

Couldn't have said this better had I said it myself. And to a lesser extent a replacement for some back in the day were the DC-8
60 and 70 series stretches. Back in the late 60's it was bigger, better and more passengers and luxury to fly the long haul routes. Wide body was the thing of the day. ETOPS? not even a pipe dream back then. The 737, DC 9 and Fokkers were all for the short and medium haul routes. Anything like a propeller back then was as dead as the wet head flat top hair cut was in the late 60's and 70's. So the crop of commutter turboprops was not yet taking off. Back then even the 747 was considered a stop gap that would eventually be relegated to the cargo trade as supersonic was still anticipated.

So, not to split hairs but a replacement of the 707 at least groundbreaking wise would be the leap to HSCT. The advent of the 707 basically signed the death warrant for the large prop liners of the day. The Viscount and Electra were 6 to 12 years too late.
And, things would have been quite different had the De Haviland Comet not had those fatal crashes due to the metal fatigue. That's the stuff for a stand alone thread which I'm sure has been discussed here in at least one thread.

Who know, maybe Boeing is keeping their next great revolutionary design, concept well under raps. Chances are there will be a 797 (spin/knock off) of the 787 for covering the 757 and 737-900 markets especially if fuel becomes increasingly limited in supply and therefore expensive to buy.
But, can anyone say Boeing 808 or 7707 for some kind of HSCT airliner? My guess would not be BWB this go around. Just speculating a BWB mammoth monster sized HSCT with A 380 load factors maybe by mid century.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: planemaker
Posted 2013-05-21 23:58:54 and read 5476 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 2):
does that mean no new aircraft for 20 years (787, 2011 EIS)?

Yup.

Quoting SoJo (Reply 6):
Surely in the future, one engine will be enough the way it's going

Depending on aircraft size that is a definite possibility.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 7):
Considering the FAA requires diversion to the nearest suitable air field anytime a twin engine loses an engine, I'd doubt it.

You are correct... with current technology... but in 15 years... single engine could be possible.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 13):
Perhaps a design with 1 pilot in the cockpit.

That is for sure... but the NEO and MAX deliveries after 2025 will have 1 pilot as an option.

Quoting affirmative (Reply 29):
Advances in composites will make designs like drop shape or double bubble feasible.

The MIT study has two variants, one of conventional (current) technology that still captured 75% of the efficiencies of the advanced materials variant.

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 49):
Who know, maybe Boeing is keeping their next great revolutionary design, concept well under raps.

Within the timeframe discussed, there really isn't a "next great revolutionary design, concept well under raps." Every possibility has already been thrashed out so it will only be an adoption of existing concepts.

On the other hand... Elon Musk's Hyperloop technology claim supposedly would enable downtown San Fran to downtown LA in under 30 minutes. If true, that may have an impact on short haul aviation at some point in the future.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: bueb0g
Posted 2013-05-22 01:02:31 and read 5331 times.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 50):
That is for sure... but the NEO and MAX deliveries after 2025 will have 1 pilot as an option.

You are completely insane. There's not much to say on this point because it's so incredibly ridiculous... I'll take a very large bet that they won't. Sometimes I think you're a deliberate troll, seeing these predictions.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 50):
You are correct... with current technology... but in 15 years... single engine could be possible.

Never say never, but in 15 years, no. There is so much in certification and regulation that is dependant on continued safe operation after an engine loss, and that's very unlikely to change, as unforeseen errors can always crop up that could cause your one engine to fail, and when we're looking at designs flying today where there have been no fatalities in 20 years (777, A340 etc), losing even one aircraft due to its only engine failing would be an unacceptable step back in safety ... And even if you could come up with the technology to make it feasible right now, 15 years is probably what it would take to allow the regulatory and operational framework alone to change...

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: planemaker
Posted 2013-05-22 06:50:56 and read 4909 times.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 51):
You are completely insane. There's not much to say on this point because it's so incredibly ridiculous...

I am in good company with the FAA and OEM's.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 51):
Never say never, but in 15 years, no.

It could very well happen with the way technology is advancing. It may not mean anything to you but Google buying NASA a quantum computer is just a single indication.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-22 11:54:25 and read 4572 times.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 51):
You are completely insane. There's not much to say on this point because it's so incredibly ridiculous... I'll take a very large bet that they won't. Sometimes I think you're a deliberate troll, seeing these predictions.

I'm not sure why this would be insane. Computers have replaced the 3-crew cockpit, why not taking it a step further and reduce it to an 1-pilot cockpit.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: rcair1
Posted 2013-05-22 16:55:20 and read 4311 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 53):
Quoting bueb0g (Reply 51):
You are completely insane. There's not much to say on this point because it's so incredibly ridiculous... I'll take a very large bet that they won't. Sometimes I think you're a deliberate troll, seeing these predictions.

I'm not sure why this would be insane. Computers have replaced the 3-crew cockpit, why not taking it a step further and reduce it to an 1-pilot cockpit.

I don't know about anybody being insane - but until the aircraft have a reliable, autonomous, all-weather landing capability that is fully controlled from the ground with no pre-planning - I'm not looking for a commercial airliner to be single pilot. I think I've read about 2-3 cases of pilots or co-pilots becoming disabled during the flight _this year_.

If the pilot goes down - then the plane must be able to land itself under ground control. That must include all diversion airports for ETOPS and all weather conditions.

Even if the a/c has autoland - many airports do not have the facility - so we have to look at that.

It is far more than the aircraft - it is also the infrastructure. At the rate changes happen - not thinking it is likely.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2013-05-22 20:08:05 and read 4021 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 54):
I don't know about anybody being insane - but until the aircraft have a reliable, autonomous, all-weather landing capability that is fully controlled from the ground with no pre-planning - I'm not looking for a commercial airliner to be single pilot.

I don't think it will happen for many decades to come but statistically, the weak link in the cockpit in relation to accidents is the human.

For example, what if the flight computer of AF447 was programmed to automatically apply 80% throttle and 5 degree nose up pitch in the event of a pitot failure?

I'm willing to bet that it wouldn't be difficult to add that programming. At this point, major airline pilots are at least as much systems overseers as pilots and so much reliance is placed on the programming that the human element can be forgotten.

There is a very important reason to keep 2 pilots in the cockpit, regardless of how sophisticated the flight software; boredom. There's no way a pilot all alone in the front isn't going to nap on occasion...then what happens when the horns and lights go crazy?

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: planemaker
Posted 2013-05-22 20:27:04 and read 3986 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 54):
If the pilot goes down - then the plane must be able to land itself under ground control.

That capability already exists. And with NextGen, ATC will also be able to command the aircraft when required. As I have posted before, but perhaps not made explicit, the onlyreal issue that is left to be resolved is a traffic avoidance system... and that is why the FAA, GE and other aerospace companies have been focussing on 4D/sense & avoid systems.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: jet-lagged
Posted 2013-05-22 21:45:01 and read 3899 times.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 51):
Quoting planemaker (Reply 50):
That is for sure... but the NEO and MAX deliveries after 2025 will have 1 pilot as an option.

You are completely insane. There's not much to say on this point because it's so incredibly ridiculous... I'll take a very large bet that they won't. Sometimes I think you're a deliberate troll, seeing these predictions.

Why is that so insane?

We have self-driving trains, self-driving cars, remotely controlled drones, already. Also computer programs that play chess, win at Jeopardy, analyze huge amounts of data, and process information now human can. The processing power of large computers is now on par with a human brain, and flying an aeroplane, as complicated as that is, represents only a fraction of what a brain needs to do.

Flying an airplane by processor will be somewhat different than an exact 1:1 human body swtich out. They can use additional senses and data feeds. Remote control back-up will be possible.

Sure, two pilots are nice. It used to be three in the cockpit. Planes used to have 3 and 4 engines, but current technology reliability is doing just fine with 2. Two pilots, especially on short flights, won't be the norm forever.

Topic: RE: The Next New Design For Boeing Is...?
Username: planemaker
Posted 2013-05-22 22:34:42 and read 3812 times.

Quoting jet-lagged (Reply 57):
They can use additional senses and data feeds. Remote control back-up will be possible.

It is already possible... Boeing (and others like Airbus, RR, GE, etc.) are already monitoring inflight data on a real-time basis and are up linking data and instructions.


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