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Topic: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Bogi
Posted 2013-05-23 03:13:47 and read 10430 times.

Quote:
"La question est: avons-nous plus besoin d'une trentaine d'A380 supplementaires ou d'une trentaine de 777X?", explique Thierry Antinori.


With google translated into English: "The question is: we need an additional A380 thirty or thirty 777X?", said Thierry Antinori.

http://www.lesechos.fr/entreprises-s...ser-une-grosse-commande-567980.php

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-05-23 04:56:57 and read 9943 times.

Tough decision; I was pondering it myself this morning, but decided to pass on both and have a croissant.

Anyway, it would surprise me if EK jumped now, because they always want to have something big to announce at the Dubai show.

They will probably order more A380s, but once the -900 is launched; I think a 77X order is far more likely in the short term.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-05-23 04:58:55 and read 9929 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Tough decision; I was pondering it myself this morning, but decided to pass on both and have a croissant.

  

Thanks for the laugh, you've just made my day 

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: 2175301
Posted 2013-05-23 15:29:11 and read 8990 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
They will probably order more A380s, but once the -900 is launched; I think a 77X order is far more likely in the short term.

I doubt that the A380-900 will ever be launched. I cannot see any financial benefit for Airbus to invest in the 900.

Have a Great Day,

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2013-05-23 15:52:36 and read 8885 times.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 3):
I doubt that the A380-900 will ever be launched. I cannot see any financial benefit for Airbus to invest in the 900.

Have a Great Day

I don't know. Not now but for announcement in say 2017 and EIS for 2020 there maybe a case. In many countries the demand for air Travel will continue to increase quicker than the development of runways especially in Asia. A 600- 700 seat regional aircraft on DEL-BOM, PVG-HGK, DXB-BOM, DXB-JKT for example would work I am sure when airlines look 2020-2035 in fleet planning. EK would fill them for sure!

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-05-23 17:00:51 and read 8727 times.

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 4):
In many countries the demand for air Travel will continue to increase quicker than the development of runways especially in Asia. A 600- 700 seat regional aircraft on DEL-BOM, PVG-HGK, DXB-BOM, DXB-JKT for example would work I am sure when airlines look 2020-2035 in fleet planning. EK would fill them for sure!

EK had planned to put into service a two-class A380-800 with 653 seats for India operations, so they don't need an A380-900 for that many seats.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: timpdx
Posted 2013-05-23 19:29:36 and read 8009 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):

653 pax? Would love to see customs at BOM after that bird landed....not.

[Edited 2013-05-23 19:30:56]

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-05-23 22:11:34 and read 7047 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
EK had planned to put into service a two-class A380-800 with 653 seats for India operations, so they don't need an A380-900 for that many seats.

About 2 years ago in an Air International article, Tim Clark was quoted as saying they were pressing Airbus to launch a stretched A380, configured to seat 600-650 in a comfortable 3 class configuration and 800-850 in a 2-class configuration.

The interesting thing about those numbers is that they are both 25%-30% greater than their current seating capacities, clearly indicating that he is referring to the "double-stretch" we talk about on here (typically to 85m)

He was quoted as saying the frame was good for 607 tonnes MTOW already, as it stood today, and was capable of more with some work, but would need upgraded engines to power it

rgds

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: BMI727
Posted 2013-05-23 22:22:21 and read 6973 times.

Quoting Bogi (Thread starter):
With google translated into English: "The question is: we need an additional A380 thirty or thirty 777X?", said Thierry Antinori.

They'll just end up ordering both I suspect. My hunch is that without Emirates, the 777X doesn't see the light of day, or at least would be farther off.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: ASA
Posted 2013-05-23 22:28:02 and read 6912 times.

Let me put forward my STRONG RUMOR based on no evidence but only intuition   

EK will DEFINITELY buy 777X and also more A380 ... 800 or 900

Come'on ... they HAVE TO. They thrive on being the biggest ... until and if they ever fold, they'll keep on buying any new widebody that comes in the market.

   : because in most cases, they demand to A and B and start the process for new air frames!

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-24 00:38:04 and read 6108 times.

There is nothing new to report here. Tim Clark has stated many times he want to buy the 777X and bring in more A380s if DXB airport can meet the demand.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-05-24 01:51:27 and read 5680 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
The interesting thing about those numbers is that they are both 25%-30% greater than their current seating capacities, clearly indicating that he is referring to the "double-stretch" we talk about on here (typically to 85m)

I expect it to happen (the double stretch). This will be needed long term to keep the A380s CASM low enough to justify the risk VLAs have. (e.g., unfilled seats in the off season)

But as far as EK growth... it will happen. Each plane has a business case and EK has a good estimate of the ROI for each type. The will negotiate and select each type as needed.


Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Bogi
Posted 2013-05-24 02:37:36 and read 5447 times.

More A350s are no option?

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: CXB77L
Posted 2013-05-24 03:17:59 and read 5213 times.

Quoting Bogi (Reply 12):
More A350s are no option?

They already have a number of A350s on order. I would suspect that they need more of something larger than the A350-1000, hence the possibility of buying large numbers of 777Xs and A380s.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-24 03:24:53 and read 5165 times.

Quoting Bogi (Reply 12):
More A350s are no option?

It is quite possible but I think EK is more focused on larger aircraft. Back in 2010, well after the A350 purchase, Tim Clark was quoted:

“We’re finding that the smallest aircraft that’s useful to us needs to be 340 seats,” Clark said. “We’re trying to persuade Airbus to realign the A350-1000 more toward the ER, increasing both its capacity and its range.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-a350-as-boeing-stalls-on-777.html

There has been some information on this forum that the A351 would only seat 317 in EK configuration. The 777-8X could very well fit more seats than that in their configuration while carrying heavier cargo (not more volume).

Who is to say what EK's real interests are as this could all be about negotiations but I can very feasible see EK's further purchases only consisting of the 351 and larger and the majority of the heavy lifting being done by the two families discussed in this thread.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-24 03:31:51 and read 5140 times.

They will definitely firm their remaining A350 options (50) at some point in time.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
There has been some information on this forum that the A351 would only seat 317 in EK configuration.

In a 3 class configuration but EK also has 2-class seaters.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-24 04:23:19 and read 4993 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):
In a 3 class configuration

True. But three class is much more popular in their fleet and preceding that quote Tim Clark references three class preference by the following:

"Clark has ordered 20 350-seat A350-1000s, a model he says can’t reach Los Angeles from Dubai in the three-class layout that Emirates prefers."

I think it is inferred that the 340 seats he is talking about is in the same vein as this comment: aka 3 class. Unless you think the 351s will only be used as regional aircraft in two class?

Three class is mentioned later in the article about the -900 as well:
"Emirates has ordered a total of 70 A350s, including 50 of the -900 variant, which can fly 200 miles further than the -1000 but which carries only 300 people in the three-class configuration."

Anyway, its not a surprise here, EK only wants large aircraft. A380s and 777s.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-05-24 04:41:58 and read 4949 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
"Clark has ordered 20 350-seat A350-1000s, a model he says can’t reach Los Angeles from Dubai in the three-class layout that Emirates prefers."

I suspect that comment was made in its original configuration

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
"Emirates has ordered a total of 70 A350s, including 50 of the -900 variant, which can fly 200 miles further than the -1000 but which carries only 300 people in the three-class configuration."

The -1000 now outranges the -900 by 200Nm or more

Rgds

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Bogi
Posted 2013-05-24 04:50:37 and read 4901 times.

Quoting tortugamon,reply=16EK only wants large aircraft:
Yes.

Aircraft:Total / Orders / Options

Airbus A330-200: 23 / 0 / 0
Airbus A340-300 : 05 / 0 / 0
Airbus A340-500: 10 / 0 / 0
Airbus A350-900 XWB: 0 / 50 / 50
Airbus A350-1000 XWB: 0 /20 /0
Airbus A380-800: 33 / 57 / 30
Boeing 777-200: 3 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-200ER: 6 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-200LR: 10 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-300: 12 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-300ER: 87 / 63 / 20

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet#Current_fleet

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-24 05:10:48 and read 4836 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 17):
I suspect that comment was made in its original configuration
Quoting astuteman (Reply 17):
The -1000 now outranges the -900 by 200Nm or more

Yes it was and you are quite right. However, I was not referencing range in my comments though, just capacity. I have nothing to make me believe that the aircraft's capacity nor Tim Clark's perspective on that capacity has changed since 2010 when these comments were made.

Quoting Bogi (Reply 18):
Yes.

Not sure what point you are making here: Are you agreeing with me that they are all large aircraft? I do no think the A330s qualify but I am flexible on the definition. Are you saying that they have non large aircraft on hand so therefore in the future they will want smaller wide bodies? I do not think EK has shown any interest in purchasing any additional small wide bodies. I did not say very large aircraft (VLA) in my note. I believe that EK believes they only want aircraft that are A351 or larger. That is why they have not bought anything smaller than the 351 in 5.5 years.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-05-24 05:30:52 and read 4772 times.

Unless the 777-9x is capable of carrying a something approaching a full load on a route as long as DXB-LAX, I don't think so. EK may just ask for a higher-gross weight (HGW) A350XWB-1000 instead so more fuel can be carried for (mostly) non-stop operations on such a long route.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-05-24 05:52:27 and read 4686 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):
I was not referencing range in my comments though

you weren't?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
"Clark has ordered 20 350-seat A350-1000s, a model he says can’t reach Los Angeles from Dubai in the three-class layout that Emirates prefers."

My bad, I guess..........     

Rgds

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Bogi
Posted 2013-05-24 05:52:52 and read 4686 times.

Maybe EK wants in the future may have only two aircraft types in its fleet, B777Xs and A380s or A380s and A350s?

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-24 06:26:25 and read 4613 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):
They will definitely firm their remaining A350 options (50) at some point in time.

It was not that long ago that they did not even accept the A340-600s that they had on firm order and did let the additional options expire. I do not think this will be the same case here but I think the mix of aircraft that get delivered will be very different than the mix of aircraft that they have on order with Airbus.

They are flying 125% more passengers/year now then when they ordered the A350. I do not think it is inconceivable that their needs have changed since then. Especially with quotes (post 351 changes) like:

"It [the -900] is now appearing too small," says Clark. "So we may slip the order to the -1000, but the -1000 hasn't been frozen yet. We haven't decided quite yet which one we'll take. We're actually playing around with how this order fits."

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 20):
Unless the 777-9x is capable of carrying a something approaching a full load on a route as long as DXB-LAX, I don't think so. EK may just ask for a higher-gross weight (HGW) A350XWB-1000 instead so more fuel can be carried for (mostly) non-stop operations on such a long route.

I believe that is what the EK inspired 777-8LX is for. Based on general consensus around here that aircraft should be able to carry 30t in addition to as many if not more passengers than an A351 on that very same route. Not sure if an A351 HGW is quite on the drawing board just yet. It already has a great market position where it is if A can execute.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
My bad, I guess..........


I knew I should have cut Tim Clark off before he mentioned range! What a jerk.   How about this: I did not mention range (I think).

[quote=Bogi,reply=22]Maybe EK wants in the future may have only two aircraft types in its fleet, B777Xs and A380s or A380s and A350s?

It could be. But EK obviously has a need for lots of seats. The 777X could very well seat more than 80 additional seats vs an A351 & have 2-3-2 J class while having lower seat costs and more cargo revenue vs the A351. If EK does not order the 777X then I believe it is likely that it will not get built (in addition the added benefit is that someone will witness me eating my own hat)  .

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-05-24 06:27:57 and read 4613 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 20):
Unless the 777-9x is capable of carrying a something approaching a full load on a route as long as DXB-LAX, I don't think so.

I expect EK will deploy the 777-8XL on those types of missions as should be very close to the passenger load their 777-300ERs take (as those cannot go out full) and it can carry a significant load of belly cargo (which the 777-300ER cannot due on those missions).

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-24 08:04:28 and read 4845 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 23):
It was not that long ago that they did not even accept the A340-600s that they had on firm order and did let the additional options expire. I do not think this will be the same case here but I think the mix of aircraft that get delivered will be very different than the mix of aircraft that they have on order with Airbus.

You cannot compare the A346 with the A350. EK was not happy with the performance of the long cigar, the 77W could do the job much better while the A345 could take the long-range routes. Completely difference scenario with the A350 IMO.

If Clark is happy with the performance of the A350, I bet he will firm those remaining options.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 23):
"It [the -900] is now appearing too small," says Clark. "So we may slip the order to the -1000, but the -1000 hasn't been frozen yet. We haven't decided quite yet which one we'll take. We're actually playing around with how this order fits."


I also expect some conversions to the larger -1000 in the future. More seats and more range.

Quote:
but the -1000 hasn't been frozen yet.


Now that's an interesting piece of information. Last year, Airbus started advertising the A35J as an 369 seater. I wouldn't be surprised if the A35J will have more than 350 seats in a 3-class configuration after design freeze. So far its an "350-seat sized aircraft", meaning the final seat count might change during development.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-24 08:26:39 and read 4782 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25):
If Clark is happy with the performance of the A350, I bet he will firm those remaining options.

To give my bet some more backbone, here are a few quotes of Clark about performance:

Quote:
Clark hopes that the A350 will match the Airbus A380 program, which has exceeded performance expectations. “I kind of looked at the A380 as a late, overweight aircraft,” he says. “But when she flew, she was faster, more fuel-efficient and more aerodynamical and still is.”

“Now roll that forward into the A350–it is late and overweight. But we got a pleasant surprise with the A380, maybe we also get a pleasant surprise with the A350-900 and -1000,” Clark says.

And:

Quote:
"As Airbus knows, I want to see it on its wheels with its engines running and preferably in the air," Clark said in an interview at a recent trade show. "I am afraid I am not prepared to accept anything until I see telemetry giving performances of the engines and the fuel. The A350-1000 is definitely one that we would be looking at. But first of all - show me."

The performance of the aircraft is really important for EK.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-05-24 09:49:05 and read 4834 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 23):
How about this: I did not mention range (I think).

Can go with that.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):
I was not referencing range in my comments

You didn't mention it - you "referenced" it  

Your point is well made though.
It seems EK wanted more range AND more capacity and have only been given one of these.....

I'm willing to bet he ends up with more A350-1000's than he's got on order now, though..

AND he'll take shedloads of 777X's too   

AND order more A380's (either additional, OR replacement, and/or stretched), AFTER he orders the 777X

You heard it here first  

Rgds

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-05-24 10:39:42 and read 4758 times.

who else other than EK could use a possible A389.? I don't think there is much of a business case for airbus.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2013-05-24 13:20:50 and read 4493 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 28):
who else other than EK could use a possible A389.? I don't think there is much of a business case for airbus.

Well as I said earlier, there 'could' be a business case in the 2020's for domestic operations in China and India but obviously it's appeal is limited. However that has not stopped LH procuring the B748!

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: timboflier215
Posted 2013-05-24 13:47:27 and read 4420 times.

And CX have effectively said they will ONLY take a stretched A380, and not an -800

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: chiad
Posted 2013-05-24 23:48:10 and read 4060 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 28):
who else other than EK could use a possible A389.? I don't think there is much of a business case for airbus.

I think the A389 will sell far better than the A388.
The CASM, if you can fill it, will be unbeatable.
And unless there are some major "catastrophes" in the world .. in 2020 filling it will be attainable for many airlines, including every airline who already ordered the A388.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: na
Posted 2013-05-25 01:12:16 and read 3941 times.

Quoting ASA (Reply 9):
EK will DEFINITELY buy 777X and also more A380 ... 800 or 900

Unless they run into unforeseen trouble, you can bet on it. In the 2020s they have about 100 77Ws to replace, and likely the oldest dozen A380s. If Airbus launches the A380-900 then EK will surely take a few dozen, maybe even convert outstanding A388 orders. The A380 will provide an enormous leap in CASM which will make the A350/777X look like gas guzzlers.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-05-25 01:33:33 and read 3886 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25):
Completely difference scenario with the A350 IMO.
If Clark is happy with the performance of the A350, I bet he will firm those remaining options.

I agree it is a different scenario. If they do cancel any orders I am sure it will not be because of performance but because their needs have changed and they may use performance/timing as a reason for the cancellation. If you take them at their word, (big if), and they do not need anything less than 3-class 340 seaters then it is hard to see them taking many 359s. However, I think they will because they will want the efficiency, the growth, and they have older aircraft to retire. For deliveries between 2014-2019 there really is not a better aircraft (except maybe the A380) for them.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25):
Now that's an interesting piece of information. Last year, Airbus started advertising the A35J as an 369 seater.

How a 6 meter stretch from A358-A359 resulted in 44 additional 3-class seats while the 7 meters between 359-351 only amounted to 36 seats never did make sense to me. It has the same length as a 77W so I would think that seating would be similar except 2-3-2 should be more difficult in J in a 351 which should result in about a 10 seat difference. Who knows, there really is no use trying to figure these estimates sometimes.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 27):
I'm willing to bet he ends up with more A350-1000's than he's got on order now, though..

Absolutely. I think they will even have more 351s than 359s in the end. If they do take their whole order, I have a hard time seeing them converting all 50 of their options however. The only way that will happen, IMO, is if the 777X is delayed or if EK has a much larger growth then they expect (and that is unfathomable to me).

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 28):
who else other than EK could use a possible A389.?

AF-KLM, SQ, CX, LH, ILFC among others. Stretches tend to have better economics and that wing should fit that frame even better. Once we start seeing high density A388's being delivered, the economy improves, and if Asia continues to grow then I could definitely see a 389 as a significant seller come 2020's.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: TP313
Posted 2013-05-25 01:51:18 and read 3853 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 33):
How a 6 meter stretch from A358-A359 resulted in 44 additional 3-class seats while the 7 meters between 359-351 only amounted to 36 seats never did make sense to me

It doesn't.

Either the 359 seats 300 and the 35J seats 350,
or the 359 seats 314 and the 35J seats 360+.

Can anyone estimate what would happen to the 35J's advertised 8400 nm range @ 350 passengers
if we instead account for over 360 passengers?

[Edited 2013-05-25 01:58:38]

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-25 03:17:31 and read 3733 times.

Quoting chiad (Reply 31):
The CASM, if you can fill it, will be unbeatable.

Indeed ... if you can fill it. Let's hope the economy will be much better in 2020.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 33):
I agree it is a different scenario. If they do cancel any orders I am sure it will not be because of performance but because their needs have changed and they may use performance/timing as a reason for the cancellation. If you take them at their word, (big if), and they do not need anything less than 3-class 340 seaters then it is hard to see them taking many 359s. However, I think they will because they will want the efficiency, the growth, and they have older aircraft to retire. For deliveries between 2014-2019 there really is not a better aircraft (except maybe the A380) for them.

Indeed, a big if.

Still I expect them to convert more A359s to the larger -1000 type. But before doing that, they wait for the design freeze of the largest A350 and the first performance numbers from MSN001.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 33):
How a 6 meter stretch from A358-A359 resulted in 44 additional 3-class seats while the 7 meters between 359-351 only amounted to 36 seats never did make sense to me. It has the same length as a 77W so I would think that seating would be similar except 2-3-2 should be more difficult in J in a 351 which should result in about a 10 seat difference. Who knows, there really is no use trying to figure these estimates sometimes.

I can't wait to download the final A35J specs pdf from this page.

Quoting TP313 (Reply 34):
Can anyone estimate what would happen to the 35J's advertised 8400 nm range @ 350 passengers
if we instead account for over 360 passengers?

This would be very interesting to know indeed. ferpe or someone else with piano-x around here?

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-05-25 16:57:05 and read 3173 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 28):
who else other than EK could use a possible A389.? I don't think there is much of a business case for airbus.

CX has claimed that they will not order the A388 but would order the A389; they are the only ones that have taken that stance. Since the A388 has no competition (yes, I know that the 748i exists, but it has lost every head to head competition with the A388) does it really profit Airbus to build the A389 to just gain CX? Every other airline that wants the A389 will buy the AA388 if it is not available, and I suspect that ultimately CX will as well. Since it will be a long, long time (if ever) before the A380 program achieves a decent ROI I completely agree with your statement about the business case.

Quoting chiad (Reply 31):

I think the A389 will sell far better than the A388.
The CASM, if you can fill it, will be unbeatable.

That's the catch, IF you can fill it. Meanwhile, if you can't, it will bankrupt you. Many airlines in the 70's bought the 747 for the exact reason you cite; it's CASM at the time was unbeatable. Most of them quickly dumped them when they realized they could not fill them reliably. There is a reason that the larger the airliner, the smaller the number of sales. CASM is meaningful only if the plane is full.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-05-26 03:32:04 and read 2836 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 36):
CX has claimed that they will not order the A388 but would order the A389; they are the only ones that have taken that stance. Since the A388 has no competition (yes, I know that the 748i exists, but it has lost every head to head competition with the A388) does it really profit Airbus to build the A389 to just gain CX? Every other airline that wants the A389 will buy the AA388 if it is not available, and I suspect that ultimately CX will as well. Since it will be a long, long time (if ever) before the A380 program achieves a decent ROI I completely agree with your statement about the business case.

An A389 makes only sense once the A380 generates a positive cash flow and if they can sell enough of it to cover the certification costs.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: spink
Posted 2013-05-26 03:55:40 and read 2747 times.

Quoting chiad (Reply 31):
I think the A389 will sell far better than the A388.
The CASM, if you can fill it, will be unbeatable.

The 388 CASM was/is unbeatable as well. CASM is also only good when comparing aircraft of the same or nearly the same size. Using a 388 on a flight that can't really fill a 321 will lose money regardless of how great the theoretical CASM is on it.

It is unlikely that AB is going to sink money into a 389 for a while since they still need to break even on the 388 and the 388 has no competition and still doesn't have enough orders. If someone wants a 389 sized plane, they'll end up buying a 388 anyways. If/When boeing designs another VLA, Airbus will probably lengthen, lighten, and re-engine the 388 in response, but right now it doesn't make biz sense to pour more money in.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-05-27 07:17:07 and read 2211 times.

Quoting spink (Reply 38):
If/When boeing designs another VLA, Airbus will probably lengthen, lighten, and re-engine the 388 in response, but right now it doesn't make biz sense to pour more money in.

And until the airline picture changes, Boeing is not going to do it. They said when the A380 was launched that they could not see enough demand for even one new VLA, let alone two, and I think events have proved them right. Even if the A380 had not had the production problems that it has had, and had gone exactly on schedule and budget (something no new airliner in history has ever done) the ROI at this point, I think, would still be disappointing. Airbus surely believed that by this time there would be hundreds more orders under their belt than they have . And when a new VLA does get designed, it will almost certainly be a twin.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: Boysteve
Posted 2013-05-27 08:42:28 and read 2116 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 39):
Boeing is not going to do it. They said when the A380 was launched that they could not see enough demand for even one new VLA, let alone two

Personally I don't think this is quite right. If Boeing developed an A380 equivalent then the competition would have bought selling prices down as we know. My understanding is that Boeing thought that the lower selling prices would mean the ROI would probably not be met within an acceptable time-frame if at all. Sure, Boeing could go ahead anyway and ruin the party for Airbus but that would not provide any financial return for their own shareholders. Being first was everything!.

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-05-27 10:14:15 and read 1979 times.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 3):
I doubt that the A380-900 will ever be launched. I cannot see any financial benefit for Airbus to invest in the 900.

I can. And I firmly believe it will be launched.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
About 2 years ago in an Air International article, Tim Clark was quoted as saying they were pressing Airbus to launch a stretched A380, configured to seat 600-650 in a comfortable 3 class configuration and 800-850 in a 2-class configuration.

Yes, he was. And I think he has not changed his mind about these issues yet.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
The interesting thing about those numbers is that they are both 25%-30% greater than their current seating capacities, clearly indicating that he is referring to the "double-stretch" we talk about on here (typically to 85m)

He was quoted as saying the frame was good for 607 tonnes MTOW already, as it stood today, and was capable of more with some work, but would need upgraded engines to power it

That sounds logical if we take into account which size of airplane would be the one which is most appealing to TC.  .

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 8):
My hunch is that without Emirates, the 777X doesn't see the light of day, or at least would be farther off.

I agree with the latter, farther off. But the B777X is a logical response to the A350-program. And especially to the A350-1000 which is becoming more and more a threat to Boeings lucrative and dominant position in that segment of the airliner market.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):
They will definitely firm their remaining A350 options (50) at some point in time.

No dubt they will.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 33):
Absolutely. I think they will even have more 351s than 359s in the end.

Totally agree. The A359 will be the smallest wide-body in the EK-fleet. Probably also in number of copies they will buy.  .

Topic: RE: Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380
Username: spink
Posted 2013-05-27 11:23:37 and read 1885 times.

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 40):
Personally I don't think this is quite right. If Boeing developed an A380 equivalent then the competition would have bought selling prices down as we know. My understanding is that Boeing thought that the lower selling prices would mean the ROI would probably not be met within an acceptable time-frame if at all. Sure, Boeing could go ahead anyway and ruin the party for Airbus but that would not provide any financial return for their own shareholders. Being first was everything!.

I'm not sure the selling price of a 380 sized plane could be much lower than it is currently. The 777W is at 315 and the 351 is at 332. The 380 is at 400. Given the capacity/capability of the 380, the list price is already at a heavy discount compared to the 351 and 77W. Now while list prices aren't what airlines pay, they should be a relative reflection of what the airlines pay. The 380 is ~60% more passengers at ~25% more cost which is a reasonable bargain even factoring in capacity risk.

So I think the reality is that the actual available market alone is depressing the prices of the 380 such that competition wouldn't create reasonably more downward pricing pressure. In fact, competition would likely increase the pricing floor for a 380 sized plane while still leaving both sizes sinking in red. At the end of the day, there just isn't enough available market for a 380 sized plane. One wonders if Airbus would of been better off with a smaller plane in the 400-500 range instead of 500-600 range.


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