Print from Airliners.net discussion forum
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5780842/

Topic: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: staralliance85
Posted 2013-06-03 20:37:16 and read 7846 times.

Recently, QF and EK signed a Codeshare agreement. This was a huge blow to BA who use to do the Kangaroo route Codeshare for many years via SIN. Now QF does it with EK via DXB. BA now does the kangaroo route Codeshare with CX(another OW member). QR who is about to be a OW member must not be pleased at all with the QF-EK Codeshare. It seems like the only OW member that depends on QF is AA because all of the code shared flights from the USA to Australia are QF metal. Plus all of the QF flights to the Us feeds into the AA flights.


Will OW airlines give QF a pass on it because they cover a vital region of the world?


Should QF look into dropping out of OW for another alliance or alliance less?

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: boeing773ER
Posted 2013-06-03 20:47:20 and read 7839 times.

I think that QF will stay in oneWorld, just because they have built up such a strong frequent flyer base with other oneWorld partner airlines.

But just for discussion/speculation sake I will fancy this idea of QF just leaving oneWorld. I can't imagine AA and QF dropping their codeshare, since it is big to both airlines. QF needs the feed in America (LAX flights) and AA needs the flights Australia flights. Now, I can't imagine them joining Star because their would be regulatory problems with both NZ and QF in the same alliance. No way that would get approved. So their only option would be to join Sky, which the alliance isn't all that great but sort of suits what QF needs. They are focusing more on Asia; so with VN, MF, KE, CZ, MU, and CI being part of Skyteam they would have a lot of Asian.

Now can I imagine QF leaving oneWorld? No, but it is always fun to speculate.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: CXfirst
Posted 2013-06-03 21:33:11 and read 7682 times.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 1):
So their only option would be to join Sky,

Or simply not join any alliance, but rather just keep strong ties with EK and AA. That covers most of the world for QF, except for parts of Asia. QF have said that they want to expand their operation there, and in their current situation, the partnership with CX is nearly non-existant anyway. Perhaps, they can find a better partner outside of Oneworld for that part of the world.

-CXfirst

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: AA7295
Posted 2013-06-03 21:40:16 and read 7634 times.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 1):
AA needs the flights Australia flight

I don't think AA needs QF as much as QF needs AA.

There is MUCH more traffic Australia to US vs US to Australia. Alot of Australia to US traffic is going to smaller cities not served by larger carrier.

US to Australia... it's mostly going to Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and to a lesser degree Perth, Adelaide and Cairns... all of which are served by CX, so AA could easily route the OW traffic through HKG should QF ever leave the alliance.

Also... QF relies hugely on it's frequent flyer base. And the frequent flyer base loves earning miles on other airlines, especially in OW.

If it came down to it... I think QF would choose OW vs EK. Plus, isn't OW on the record saying that they encourage their airlines to partner with non-alliance airlines?

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: AeroWesty
Posted 2013-06-03 21:45:03 and read 7610 times.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 1):
Now, I can't imagine them joining Star because their would be regulatory problems with both NZ and QF in the same alliance.

In a recent thread regarding alliances, I speculated that NZ would do better with SkyTeam, which generated no discussion about at all. If NZ went to SkyTeam, and QF to Star Alliance, that would open the door for AA to begin flights to Oceania on their own metal to maintain oneworld nonstops between California and Australia.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: smi0006
Posted 2013-06-03 21:50:37 and read 7575 times.

I believe that QF still have strong ties with JL too, obviously the Australia Japan market is not what it once was.

I am surprised at the lack of partnership between MH and QF. There was talk the two were going to establish their own carrier out of KUL at one point but the partnership fell through. I would have thought that MH would have offered a decent hub for SouthEast Asian flight and flight to the subcontinent.

Also LA and QF codeshare across the pacific too, seems like a handy little niche for them!

I can't see why QF would leave oneworld. Formal marketing alliances are not as important as they once were, airlines are increasingly going whats in their bilateral best interest, as multilateral interests diverge. I think some people on A.net take alliances too literally, they are not in the same style as alliances between countries - with similar morals and values. I don't see why oneworld, and EK can't both work for QF.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2013-06-03 22:07:08 and read 7527 times.

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
BA now does the kangaroo route Codeshare with CX(another OW member)

Not quite. BA codeshare with BOTH CX and QF (and the agreement is only a codeshare). The recent announcement was that BA now codeshared with CX as well as QF but they dressed it up to sound like a full blown JBA and full repudiation of their relationship with QF seemingly as a petty tit-for-tat move. If you look at ba.com you will see that both CX and QF come up as options, with pretty much equal weight.

(If I was being cynical I would say they needed to keep QF in order to attract some QFFs, as CX offers only 50% earn in Y, a smaller cabin bonus for F/J, and no status bonus for QFFs)

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
QR who is about to be a OW member must not be pleased at all with the QF-EK Codeshare

To be fair, QR are joining after the fact. While I'm sure that relations between QR and QF will never be especially cozy, QR are joining will full knowledge of the QF-EK partnership so it would be a low blow for them to try and throw a wrench in the works.

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
the only OW member that depends on QF is AA because all of the code shared flights from the USA to Australia are QF metal

And LAN

QF rely on the LAN feed to the rest of LatAm (especially Brazil) for their SCL flights. Furthermore, QF have approached LA about strengthening their existing codeshare agreement into something more substantial, but the idea was put on the backburner as LA had their hands full with TAM.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 1):
So their only option would be to join Sky, which the alliance isn't all that great but sort of suits what QF needs

That could be interesting. IMHO it will never happen, but with QF and MU snuggling up together it could be an interesting proposition. Also KL as a partner would be great at getting people to European cities that are not served by EK (HUY, BGO, STR etc)

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 2):
Or simply not join any alliance, but rather just keep strong ties with EK and AA

+ LAN and China Eastern

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 2):
the partnership with CX is nearly non-existant anyway

Giving the long running feud between QF and CX perhaps QF would consider leaving OW just to sc*w with CX   

They rely on QFFs as their de facto Australian market.

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 3):
QF relies hugely on it's frequent flyer base. And the frequent flyer base loves earning miles on other airlines

Precisely. QF have said many, many times that Frequent Flyer is the most valuable aspect of their business. Without it everything else, including Domestic, would simply fall apart.

They can't be seen to devalue QFF is they want to retain their natural strength in the Australian domestic market. While QF does have lots of other partners (EK, AZ, MU, AS, EI etc) status credits are only earned on QF**** flights and OW partners (even EK flights on EK code doesn't earn status). This means that, whether they like it or not, they need BA, CX etc in order to keep the FFs loyal as they can build status.

For this reason alone, QF will not leave OW. Take the example of CX, while QF and CX would quite gladly see the other dead, QFFs value the HKG hub and the access it provides to the China and East Asian market for being superior to anything that QF (or even MU) offer.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: davidho1985
Posted 2013-06-04 00:49:34 and read 7190 times.

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 2):
Or simply not join any alliance, but rather just keep strong ties with EK and AA.

If they don't want to join another alliance, why don't they just remain in OW???
Currently they are able to enjoy benefits from both OW and EK.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: qf002
Posted 2013-06-04 00:52:45 and read 7172 times.

Yup, QF hates Oneworld.

That is, until you realise that they have extremely close relations with American/LA/JL continue to codeshare on BA services, operate codeshares with AY/IB, have mentioned CX as part of their strategy at HKG and recently sponsored MH into the alliance.

QF has demonstrated that they will plug gaps with alliance members where they can, and will only look outside the alliance when there are gaps that their existing partners can't plug (ie their new deal with MU for China, SA for South Africa etc).

The fact is that OW isn't geared towards what QF needs. It's geared towards big financial centres in the northern hemisphere (LHR, JFK, HKG, NRT etc). If Oneworld had innovated in line with economic and social change (ie the growth of China, the expansion of the Middle East as a transit point etc), then QF would probably have more options in terms of working within the existing alliance.

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 3):
I don't think AA needs QF as much as QF needs AA.

If this was the case then why would AA enter a revenue sharing deal with QF? It would be far more lucrative for them to just sell seats on their flights to QF for codeshare traffic.

In any case, I expect the existing JV would survive any potential Oneworld breakdown.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: qf002
Posted 2013-06-04 01:27:21 and read 7049 times.

Apologies if is is a repost -- I posted, but it's gone but wasn't deleted  

QF uses OW partners where they can. That much is obvious in their relationships with AA, LA, JL. They still codeshare on some BA service to plug gaps that EK doesn't fill, they have mentioned CX as part of their strategy at HKG, recently sponsored MH into the alliance (though it is a shame not to see more cooperation there -- at least a codeshare to plug KUL as a destination outside MEL) and fly codeshare flights for AY, IB etc.

The real problem for QF is OW's focus on major northern hemisphere financial centres. OW is largely based around LHR, JFK, HKG and NRT, which just doesn't fit with QF geographically or ideologically. OW's major failure to find a partner in China or to adapt to the rise of the ME3 sooner as major connectors has left QF is a difficult situation.

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 3):
I don't think AA needs QF as much as QF needs AA.

Then why did AA agree to a revenue sharing deal with QF? Surely it would be far more lucrative for them to just sell seats on codeshare flights to QF passengers rather than taking on part of the financial burden if things go wrong?

I think AA recognises Australia/NZ as a necessary gap to plug if they want to match what the other US airlines offer, but it's not something that they have any interest in pursuing themselves. They have a different focus, so QF is valuable to them in allowing them to direct their resources there instead (in the same way that CX plugs HKG for them).

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: IADCA
Posted 2013-06-04 12:03:15 and read 6056 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 4):
In a recent thread regarding alliances, I speculated that NZ would do better with SkyTeam, which generated no discussion about at all. If NZ went to SkyTeam, and QF to Star Alliance, that would open the door for AA to begin flights to Oceania on their own metal to maintain oneworld nonstops between California and Australia.

Interesting idea, but part of the appeal of Star/UA to NZ is the ability to route traffic via both LAX and SFO on UA. No such presence in both markets from DL. Doubt the first domino falls in that scenario.

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 3):
US to Australia... it's mostly going to Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and to a lesser degree Perth, Adelaide and Cairns... all of which are served by CX, so AA could easily route the OW traffic through HKG should QF ever leave the alliance.

Yikes, that's a big detour. LAX-HKG is only ~200 miles shorter than LAX-SYD, and that would leave the ~4500 miles from HKG-SYD (almost a 9 hour flight!) on top of the first leg. I mean, I do love CX, but not THAT much.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: motorhussy
Posted 2013-06-04 12:31:07 and read 5730 times.

I can see EK and QF code sharing across the Pacific, possibly even EK metal/carbon being used: DXB-LAX-SYD-DXB and vice versa. Or even: DXB-SYD-AKL-DFW-DXB.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-06-04 13:52:04 and read 4849 times.

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 3):
US to Australia... it's mostly going to Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and to a lesser degree Perth, Adelaide and Cairns... all of which are served by CX, so AA could easily route the OW traffic through HKG should QF ever leave the alliance.

Routing Australia traffic via HKG would make no sense economically. LAX-SYD-HKG is almost 60% further than nonstop, meaning many hours of additional travel time.

LAX-SYD 6,507 nm
LAX-HKG-SYD 10,289 nm

To convince anyone to take such a roundabout routing the fares would have to be even lower than for direct flights. Why would CX be interested in carrying that kind of traffic when they can fill their flights with higher-yield O&D traffic to/from HKG?

PER is the only point in Australia where a routing via Asia is relatively competitive, but from LAX it's still about 15% (about 1,500 nm) further via HKG than via SYD.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-06-04 15:26:57 and read 3991 times.

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 3):
I don't think AA needs QF as much as QF needs AA.

Agreed. If QF leaves OW, then AA will simply enter US-Australia with their own metal. They don't have to dominate the market - but cover the destinations that best meets their needs, i.e. LAX-SYD, LAX-MEL and DFW-SYD (with 787s).

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-06-04 15:48:49 and read 3792 times.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 13):
If QF leaves OW, then AA will simply enter US-Australia with their own metal.

Technically, "re-enter", as AA served SYD/MEL/AKLNAN/PPG for about 5 years in the early 1970s. They dropped the South Pacific routes as part of a deal with Pan Am which transferred some of PA's Caribbean routes to AA.

Topic: RE: Will QF Leave OW?
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-06-04 16:56:48 and read 3256 times.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 4):
If NZ went to SkyTeam, and QF to Star Alliance, that would open the door for AA to begin flights to Oceania on their own metal to maintain oneworld nonstops between California and Australia.

I don't believe there are many very long-haul city pairs that support flights by five carriers. IMHO, LAX-SYD could not, especially were AA not to have a partner carrier to the rest of Australia.


The messages in this discussion express the views of the author of the message, not necessarily the views of Airliners.net or any entity associated with Airliners.net.

Copyright © Lundgren Aerospace. All rights reserved.
http://www.airliners.net/