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Topic: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: ridgid727
Posted 2013-06-07 14:19:25 and read 6421 times.

Great Lakes today reported their May enplanements etc, and it looks as though they are about 13% below last years.

http://money.msn.com/business-news/a...71072&topic=TOPIC_SMALL_CAP&isub=2

Business has never looked real good for ZK for the past few years, and if EAS cuts continue, I presume it will be even worse for them.

They really need to enter some markets that can sustain their service, and get some growth that is structured.
IFirst of all they need to improve their reliability, which I think is their #1 issue at the moment.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: KaiGywer
Posted 2013-06-07 14:27:17 and read 6370 times.

And in some markets it will only continue to decline. For example, locally, ISN and DIK have only been served by ZK from DEN up until this month. This month, DL is starting double daily CRJs to MSP and UA is starting double daily CRJs to DEN from both ISN and DIK.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-06-07 16:36:04 and read 6051 times.

Williston actually has had RJ flights to Denver and Minneapolis since last November, and it has killed Great Lakes' boardings.

2,700 average monthly boardings at ISN January-October 2012
840 average monthly boardings at ISN November-December 2012
545 average monthly boardings at ISN January-February 2013

They've gone from about 90 people per day when they had a monopoly, to about 18/day in the early months of this year. That's a drop of 80% at their largest station. When RJ's come to DIK, a big dropoff will be seen there as well.

The question at Great Lakes is where do they make money. EAS can be profitable but it is most decidedly NOT a guaranteed profit. You get the subsidy your winning bid called for, and if your revenue is below projections or your costs are above, weak traffic and load factor stats.

If, however, EAS has been a struggle or marginal for them, then the loss of much of Williston and Dickinson really has to hurt. Those are two markets that *should* have been big cash cows for them. Awhile back I estimated that ISN, DIK and Laramie (which also went to RJ) were something like 18-21% of their total revenue passenger miles (RPM's). Not sure where I have that data, and so don't quote me on that precise number. But it is a big chunk -- their largest aircraft, among their very longest routes, and among their highest individual load factor routes.

If EAS is working for them, then they'll be okay as nobody seems interested in wrestling away most of their markets. Flying EAS is of course always a risk in the longevity of the program, but as long as it has to pass the senate (where even the most rural states have 2 votes like any other state) EAS might not be ending anytime soon.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-06-07 17:07:32 and read 5949 times.

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 1):
And in some markets it will only continue to decline. For example, locally, ISN and DIK have only been served by ZK from DEN up until this month.
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 2):
2,700 average monthly boardings at ISN January-October 2012
840 average monthly boardings at ISN November-December 2012
545 average monthly boardings at ISN January-February 2013

   Those two markets have been good sized markets for ZK until DL and UA moved in the picture.

My main gripe with ZK out of my nearest airport MCW (Mason City, Iowa) is not having a DL interline. To fly to LAS, I have to fly ZK to MSP, then fly UA to DEN, or US to PHX first. ZK needs to figure out a better way to entice passengers to fly out of their MSP markets such as FOD, MCW, HON, PIR, JMS. It would likely give a nice boost to load factors and revenue out of these marginal EAS routes.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: mtnwest1979
Posted 2013-06-07 18:10:15 and read 5800 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 2):
Laramie (which also went to RJ)

OO operates Brasilias into LAR.

I don't see ZK's mx base at ISN lasting too much longer, or their EMB 120 operation.

My first ZK flight is planned for this week between DEN and Pierre.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: knope2001
Posted 2013-06-07 18:39:11 and read 5725 times.

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 4):
OO operates Brasilias into LAR

Ah that's right...Thanks...sorry about that!

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: cbphoto
Posted 2013-06-07 19:30:12 and read 5606 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 3):
My main gripe with ZK out of my nearest airport MCW (Mason City, Iowa) is not having a DL interline. To fly to LAS, I have to fly ZK to MSP, then fly UA to DEN, or US to PHX first. ZK needs to figure out a better way to entice passengers to fly out of their MSP markets such as FOD, MCW, HON, PIR, JMS. It would likely give a nice boost to load factors and revenue out of these marginal EAS routes.

Ummm...really? ZK DOES have a Delta Interline and I just checked for a flight MCW-LAS on a random day and it does show up on delta.com! Perhaps more research is needed before you book your next flight!


Back on subject, personally I think ZK is toast! Not from ISN or DIK going to RJs and definitely not because of passenger boardings, but because of a pilot shortage. We are currently loosing almost 20 pilots a month and with no hiring strategy in place, once the ATP rules goes into affect in August, expect to see ZK shrinking operations just to survive. The next few months should be interesting for ZK and other regional airlines as well!

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: ridgid727
Posted 2013-06-07 19:56:37 and read 5540 times.

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 6):
Back on subject, personally I think ZK is toast! Not from ISN or DIK going to RJs and definitely not because of passenger boardings, but because of a pilot shortage. We are currently loosing almost 20 pilots a month and with no hiring strategy in place, once the ATP rules goes into affect in August, expect to see ZK shrinking operations just to survive. The next few months should be interesting for ZK and other regional airlines as well!

Thanks for bringing this up. ZK has never been on the cutting edge of making many plans for the future. they have always seemed to try to achieve something that is destined to failure.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: iowaman
Posted 2013-06-07 21:59:15 and read 5345 times.

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 6):
Ummm...really? ZK DOES have a Delta Interline and I just checked for a flight MCW-LAS on a random day and it does show up on delta.com! Perhaps more research is needed before you book your next flight!

Interesting - thanks for the info. No need to be so defensive - I typically use Expedia, and those flights do not show up on there, nor on Travelocity. There is a large following to these sites and many people do not check individual airline sites when searching.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: flyabunch
Posted 2013-06-08 07:25:37 and read 3990 times.

I live in Kingman, AZ which has two ZK flights a day. I have never used them for two reasons. 1. I dislike their choice of planes, the 1900. 2. Interline problems. After reading the comment about not showing on travel sites but yes on Delta, I checked Kayak vs United and found the same thing for Kingman. It shows on United through LAX as interline but it does not show on Kayak or any of their links.

And, as you might expect, the pricing makes it worth driving to LAS instead anyway. Over $300 for the average roundtrip to LAX. I had heard that the average load in and out of IGM was about 1-2. Not a surprise at all when they don't even have interline linkage in place on the popular travel sites.

Mike

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: KaiGywer
Posted 2013-06-08 08:00:50 and read 3758 times.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 2):
Williston actually has had RJ flights to Denver and Minneapolis since last November, and it has killed Great Lakes' boardings.

Oh yeah, that's right, I forgot. I just keep hearing about DIK gaining service, and thought ISN was new too.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: superjeff
Posted 2013-06-08 09:33:56 and read 3195 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 8):
Quoting cbphoto (Reply 6):Ummm...really? ZK DOES have a Delta Interline and I just checked for a flight MCW-LAS on a random day and it does show up on delta.com! Perhaps more research is needed before you book your next flight!
Interesting - thanks for the info. No need to be so defensive - I typically use Expedia, and those flights do not show up on there, nor on Travelocity. There is a large following to these sites and many people do not check individual airline sites when searching.

They do (or did - does this change with UA and DL flying to Williston and Dickinson?) code share with F9 and UA from Denver, so they may not show up as ZK but they could easily show a F9 or UA flight number.

I have flown them into and out of DIK on their Brasilia and they were reasonably okay. But 2 1/2 hours on a Brasilia isn't fun.

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: KarlB737
Posted 2013-06-08 10:25:03 and read 2900 times.

Quoting ridgid727 (Thread starter):
Business has never looked real good for ZK for the past few years, and if EAS cuts continue, I presume it will be even worse for them.

Lest we forget that in 2011 we were discussing this major problem. I wonder how this was resolved.

Great Lakes - Raytheon Debt Update

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...id=5250506&s=Great+Lakes#ID5250506

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: cbphoto
Posted 2013-06-08 10:43:57 and read 2784 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 8):
Interesting - thanks for the info. No need to be so defensive - I typically use Expedia, and those flights do not show up on there, nor on Travelocity.

My apologies, I didn't mean to come across as defensive as it did. ZK is notorious for never advertising or getting the correct information out to passengers and the flying public. It sucks, but seriously the only way for the flying public to find out information on us is to research it and find it out themselves, which is why no one ever knows of us! Hope is helps with your future bookings!





Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 7):
Thanks for bringing this up. ZK has never been on the cutting edge of making many plans for the future. they have always seemed to try to achieve something that is destined to failure.

That is true, however somehow they always seem to stay in business, one way or another!

Topic: RE: ZK's Declining Boardings And Load Factors
Username: WA707atMSP
Posted 2013-06-08 17:10:42 and read 1791 times.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 3):
My main gripe with ZK out of my nearest airport MCW (Mason City, Iowa) is not having a DL interline

It will be interesting to see what happens at MCW and FOD when ZK's EAS contract expires. I could see Air Choice One offering ORD-MCW-STL and ORD-FOD-STL, like they do now with DEC and BRL. Air Choice One's 208s have lower operating costs than ZK's 1900s, so Air Choice One could under bid ZK.


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