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Topic: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: MistaP
Posted 2013-07-29 00:18:13 and read 9648 times.

The move of emirates operations from DXB to DWC currently planned tone before 2027, is now again moved forward to before 2020. The future capacity is also planned to be increased from 90 to 100 million at DXB and to more than 160 million at DWC.

A new a380 order on the horizon?

http://www.eturbonews.com/36545/airp...add-100-million-passenger-capacity

/MistaP

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: IndianicWorld
Posted 2013-07-29 00:24:46 and read 9626 times.

Will EK really have that many other destinations to grow from in the coming years?

Its growth has been huge but with QR and EY both still chasing them, to fill all that capacity will be a monumental task.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: SelseyBill
Posted 2013-07-29 04:45:19 and read 9159 times.

Quoting MistaP (Thread starter):
The move of emirates operations from DXB to DWC currently planned tone before 2027, is now again moved forward to before 2020. The future capacity is also planned to be increased from 90 to 100 million at DXB and to more than 160 million at DWC

IMHumbleO, its high time that a second international airline was set-up @ DXB/DWC. 'Emirates' needs more competition to address their increasing dominance out of Dubai.

Is this likely to happen; no; should it; yes.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: Lufthansa
Posted 2013-07-29 05:07:59 and read 9066 times.

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 2):
IMHumbleO, its high time that a second international airline was set-up @ DXB/DWC. 'Emirates' needs more competition to address their increasing dominance out of Dubai.

It's called a hub. They're no more dominate there than Cathay is at Hong Kong or Singapore at Changi or Lufthansa in FRA. You could take it a step further and say they're less dominate than say American at DFW or Delta at atlanta. Almost every major carrier across the globe with significant long haul operations flies to DXB, with some even unlikely ones like DL and UA flying there. There's a competing hub that has the luxury of it's owners not too worried if it makes a profit or not at this stage of its development at AUH and an even bigger one with the same luxury in the neighbouring state of DOH. So there is plenty of competition there for O & D traffic directly in to DXB itself, and plenty of competition for connecting traffic via the neighbouring hubs. On top of that DXB actively encourages and pursues open skies or very easy market access with most of its trading partners, so if anybody has the aircraft and wants to, its not very hard for them to add DXB to the list in terms of access, and DXB is by and large granting everybody beyond rights in the process if they so wish to use them. Some Carriers like QF have taken them up, but as everybody knows a hub works best for those who have feed and can offer connections. I do not however see any lack of competition to EK. How on earth would BA be able to offer so many flights? It certainly isn't offering onward connections from DXB.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: AyostoLeon
Posted 2013-07-29 06:12:47 and read 8743 times.

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 2):

There already is another airline operating out of DXB. It 's called flydubai. Within the UAE EK also faces competition from Etihad and Air Arabia.
In addition, according to the Dubai Airports Strategic Plan 2020 document, some 150 international airlines serve DXB, accounting for 50% of movements and 35% of passengers. While many of those passengers are O&D, a fair few would be connecting to other airlines to reach their destination.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-07-29 06:17:47 and read 8714 times.

That OP link is very poorly written. It raises questions and my answers are 'it doesn't add up.'

1. Where is the $33 billion coming from? While Dubai needs to invest in DWC, I do not see the funds freeing up for a 2020 timeframe. 2024? Sure! But not 2020.
2. 2020 isn't that far out. DWC would have to have contracts in place and work started within 2 years.
3. Why are no other news sources reporting?

We already know Emirates Skycargo is moving over by May, as well as general aviation, and charter:
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/IND_240107.html

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 1):

Will EK really have that many other destinations to grow from in the coming years?

You're kidding right? DWC will be sitting in the middle of billions of people entering the middle class. Who else is thinking big enough to compete?
1. India refuses to set up the laws, build out the infrastructure, or stop sabotaging their own airlines. So that takes out the natural regional competition. While EY and QR are growing, they just are not building up the hub banks to fully compete with EK. Maybe in the future...
2. While EY will likely take much of the growth from India short term that EK was trying for, when India grows, they always stifle airline growth so there is a good chance EK will have their rights increased by 30k seats/week (~60%). I'm not betting near term, but eventually.
3. Indonesia. (What is Dubai's bilateral air service rights status?)
4. China. If EK could fly to ten more Chinese cities of their choice with say 3X daily rights (per city), they would soon fly more people to/from China than they do from India.
5. Africa. There is still growth there.
6. Russia. While not with the potential of China, there is potential.
7. Secondary cities of Asia in countries such as: Korea, Vietnam, Miranmar (eventually), Thailand (such as CNX, HDY, and USM), and the Philippines (CEB and DVO should already have been served and there are five other potential candidates I see)
8. Eastern Europe is very underserved. This is more of an 'eventually' than short term. But we are in a thread discussing EK expansion post 2020...
9. Americas. The A359 will present quite a few more opportunities thanks to its economics.

and its not as if the UAE isn't busy signing other Air service agreements:
http://www.uaeinteract.com/news/default3.asp?ID=361

But first, EK must first get through the runway resurfacing and work to fix the regional ATC.

Lightsaber

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: RGFC
Posted 2013-07-29 06:45:25 and read 8545 times.

I basically agree with Lightsaber. I think however that eventually only QR will be a real challenge to EK's dominance in the Gulf, whilst EY won't be able to develop into a world leader (too close to Dubai). There's surely space for growth (Africa is still largely untapped) but not for unlimited growth and EK has a remarkable head start on its 'neighbour' EY

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: SYDSpotter
Posted 2013-07-29 07:00:39 and read 8470 times.

Quoting RGFC (Reply 6):
I basically agree with Lightsaber. I think however that eventually only QR will be a real challenge to EK's dominance in the Gulf, whilst EY won't be able to develop into a world leader (too close to Dubai). There's surely space for growth (Africa is still largely untapped) but not for unlimited growth and EK has a remarkable head start on its 'neighbour' EY

DWC is only about 120km out of Abu Dhabi (about 60km from the centre of Dubai). IMHO, if common sense were to prevail, you would

a) Merge EY and EK and operate out of DWC, or
b) "Merge" (e.g. AF-KLM) but still keep the separate brands and operate out of DWC.
-You can link the airport to Abu Dhabi/Dubai via high speed rail.

With a mooted 5 runways at DWC, there's surely room for both. Unfortunately, I think both cities will continue to try and outdo each other and EY and EK will continue to operate separately. Whilst there is still growth out there, there will come a point where the market reaches saturation point. I would think there would come a point where there would enormous cost savings in merging the operations of EY and EK.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: AyostoLeon
Posted 2013-07-29 07:04:16 and read 8437 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
3. Indonesia. (What is Dubai's bilateral air service rights status?)

From what I can gather from uaeinteract, an agreement signed by Indonesia and the UAE in 2009 gives each designated airline of the contracting parties the right to operate any type of aircraft, whether leased or owned, without restriction and without restriction of capacity.

Each carrier appears to be able to operate 42 flights per weeks but I don't know if there are any restrictions on destinations. I haven't been able to track down anything more recent.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: Lufthansa
Posted 2013-07-29 08:35:16 and read 7750 times.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 7):
b) "Merge" (e.g. AF-KLM) but still keep the separate brands and operate out of DWC.
-You can link the airport to Abu Dhabi/Dubai via high speed rail.

While that makes sense and no doubt the powers above have had that thought cross their mind, not so sure about the high speed rail part as don't train tracks warp and buckle in high temperatures potentially making such a line dangerous? I mean we're talking 50 C here.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-07-29 10:45:15 and read 6614 times.

Quoting MistaP (Thread starter):
A new a380 order on the horizon?

In a recent interview, EK's CEO said they wanted another 20 to 30 A380s but the problem was lack of airport capacity at DXB.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-07-29 11:40:52 and read 6089 times.

Quoting RGFC (Reply 6):
I think however that eventually only QR will be a real challenge to EK's dominance in the Gulf

Will QR become and airline that lives and dies off its own profit a la EK?
No "prestige routes"
Rationalize the hub banks (partially due to constrained infrastructure today, but when I look for connections, EK has usually been a far shorter connection).

And... somehow spike up the O&D traffic (I know Doha/Qatar is pursuing various sporting events, I've yet to hear of any landed...) Doha will always have high O&D for the population (roads into Saudi have their own hassles...).

Quoting RGFC (Reply 6):
whilst EY won't be able to develop into a world leader (too close to Dubai).

EY's issue is too much local control on business which dampens O&D.... EY has done some nice bold steps (e.g., AB and 9W) that will help them. Recently, its obvious they switched their strategic thinking. But some of EY's growth will be feeding Dubailand based on price.

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 8):
Each carrier appears to be able to operate 42 flights per weeks but I don't know if there are any restrictions on destinations. I haven't been able to track down anything more recent.

Thank you. That is 6X/day. I'm curious how many go un-used. And... I'm curious on what destinations are allowed. SUB, DPS, UPG, MES, BPN, JOG, and BDJ all seem ready today. Now, I'll let the analysts at EK determine in which order, but when I can pick out 7 cities that should work, I start wondering why they aren't being flown... (Note: I haven't looked at all details.) But lets take DPS (Bali) as an example. There is the tourist business that EK seems to do well... Enough traffic, a 3000m (9,800 ft) runway, and only 4,000nm from DXB. Select the gauge and start service.   (If the rights are open.)

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: FF22DXB
Posted 2013-07-29 13:53:49 and read 4994 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):

That OP link is very poorly written. It raises questions and my answers are 'it doesn't add up.'

1. Where is the $33 billion coming from? While Dubai needs to invest in DWC, I do not see the funds freeing up for a 2020 timeframe. 2024? Sure! But not 2020.
2. 2020 isn't that far out. DWC would have to have contracts in place and work started within 2 years.

There are talks here in UAE that Abu Dhabi will be investing more money in Dubai, to support the possible Dubai EXPO 2020. Maybe this EXPO is one of the reasons to move forward the opening of DWC?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
7. Secondary cities of Asia in countries such as: Korea, Vietnam, Miranmar (eventually), Thailand (such as CNX, HDY, and USM), and the Philippines (CEB and DVO should already have been served and there are five other potential candidates I see)
8. Eastern Europe is very underserved. This is more of an 'eventually' than short term. But we are in a thread discussing EK expansion post 2020...
9. Americas. The A359 will present quite a few more opportunities thanks to its economics.

Agree
I will also add that there are few cities in Europe with opportunities for EK. ( HEL, OSL, BRU, ZAG)

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: 777way
Posted 2013-07-29 14:02:47 and read 4911 times.

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 2):
IMHumbleO, its high time that a second international airline was set-up @ DXB/DWC.

Maybe Flydubai can play that role by turning into a regular airline from an LCC.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-07-29 15:37:35 and read 4268 times.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 7):
DWC is only about 120km out of Abu Dhabi (about 60km from the centre of Dubai). IMHO, if common sense were to prevail, you would

I think your distances are out - Dubai to DWC is less than 40km and Abu Dhabi is only 90km away. However, they are effectively separate states. It's like suggesting merging QF and NZ.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: JimJupiter
Posted 2013-07-29 16:17:16 and read 3997 times.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 7):
a) Merge EY and EK and operate out of DWC, or
b) "Merge" (e.g. AF-KLM) but still keep the separate brands and operate out of DWC.

Another "common sense division of labor" would be to establish EY as a premium carrier into AUH (which seems to fit with their ideas, considering their PR), and have EK as a carrier for everyone around the globe, and "everyone" into the UAE. But I doubt EK's self-image would support that...

Quoting FF22DXB (Reply 12):
I will also add that there are few cities in Europe with opportunities for EK. ( HEL, OSL, BRU, ZAG)

Strike at least ZAG....

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-07-29 18:58:26 and read 3224 times.

Quoting FF22DXB (Reply 12):
I will also add that there are few cities in Europe with opportunities for EK. ( HEL, OSL, BRU, ZAG)

   Plus MRS, more than a few in Germany if EK ever received more bilateral rights... a

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 15):
Another "common sense division of labor" would be to establish EY as a premium carrier into AUH (which seems to fit with their ideas, considering their PR), and have EK as a carrier for everyone around the globe, and "everyone" into the UAE.

Huh? EK flies quite a bit of premium passengers. There is no splitting the market without merging.

Quoting 777way (Reply 13):
Maybe Flydubai can play that role by turning into a regular airline from an LCC.

They're adding a front cabin:
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...es-short-haul-regional-unit-117519

But Flydubai must do better versus the local competition. (Air Arabia) I wonder how they'll do during the runway resurfacing... I'm amazed at their seat growth to Saudi... I'm also amazed they're in the black with a 62% LF (see link above).

The more I read about them, the more I realize they are tied to EK. That is having me reconsider the viability of Flydubai at DWC and EK at DXB... Interesting times ahead.

Lightsaber

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: FF22DXB
Posted 2013-07-29 22:12:19 and read 2439 times.

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 15):
Another "common sense division of labor" would be to establish EY as a premium carrier into AUH (which seems to fit with their ideas, considering their PR), and have EK as a carrier for everyone around the globe, and "everyone" into the UAE. But I doubt EK's self-image would support that...

I dont think that will ever happen.
Not only EK and EY are the pride of each Sheihk, but they drive the economy of each emirate.

At least in AUH, EY is very important, and i know of a lot of business that will fail without EY in AUH.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
I think your distances are out - Dubai to DWC is less than 40km and Abu Dhabi is only 90km away. However, they are effectively separate states. It's like suggesting merging QF and NZ.

I guess it depends what do you count as center of Dubai, but i will also agree that is less than 40km.

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 15):
Strike at least ZAG....

I was thinking 2020 for ZAG, and i still see 4-5 cities EK can serve, and they are smaller than ZAG.

Topic: RE: Move From DXB To DWC Moved Forward
Username: SYDSpotter
Posted 2013-07-30 06:59:48 and read 1767 times.

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 9):
While that makes sense and no doubt the powers above have had that thought cross their mind, not so sure about the high speed rail part as don't train tracks warp and buckle in high temperatures potentially making such a line dangerous? I mean we're talking 50 C here.

Yes I hadn't considered that, but a very valid observation. Mind you, if Qatar are planning to 'air condition' of their stadiums for the World Cup, I'm sure they'll figure out a practical solution to the heat (e.g underground) and heck money in the past hasn't gotten in the way of a grand idea.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
It's like suggesting merging QF and NZ.

Hmm I wouldn't use QF and NZ as a valid comparison, the NZ'ers are our mortal enemy (well when it comes to rugby anyway - no hard feelings to our Kiwi friends   ).


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