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Topic: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: psa1011
Posted 2013-07-30 11:54:51 and read 22686 times.

Once again I have found what look like jokes on wiki pages: both the LHR & STL pages show LHR-STL starting 6/1/14. Is this for real?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-07-30 11:56:09 and read 22709 times.

Anyone can post on wiki. I can post OMA-NRT starting 5/1/2014 on japan airlines right now for both cities.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: psa1011
Posted 2013-07-30 12:03:04 and read 22626 times.

Guess someone's extremely bored.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: yegbey01
Posted 2013-07-30 12:12:49 and read 22535 times.

Well, the real question should be: Why does a metro area of 2.8 million in the US not have a direct link to LHR.

I find it extremely that STL could not secure service overseas.

Compare that with much smaller cities in Canada (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Halifax), I am always amazed how overseas traffic is so concentrated in the US.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-07-30 12:15:35 and read 22514 times.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 3):
Well, the real question should be: Why does a metro area of 2.8 million in the US not have a direct link to LHR.

STL had a non-stop to LGW until about 2002 when AA killed it, along with most of TWA's former STL flights.

But yes, I view STL as a mid-size market that can support one flight to Europe like PDX, SAN, PHX, PIT, RDU, CLE, TPA, etc.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: planespotting
Posted 2013-07-30 12:30:36 and read 22312 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 4):
But yes, I view STL as a mid-size market that can support one flight to Europe like PDX, SAN, PHX, PIT, RDU, CLE, TPA, etc.

Yep - STL is the 19th largest MSA in the country, ahead of BWI, DEN, PIT, CLT, PDX, MCO, CVG, and CLE to name a few. I'm sure a 6x/week 767 or 777 (or 787) for BA could probably make it work.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-07-30 12:58:27 and read 22049 times.

Well, with me originally hailing from Missouri and St. Louis in particular I guess BA will just have to "Show Me". I will believe it when I see it after so much has been talked about for so long, between AA/BA to LHR and LH to FRA.

Could STL support an LHR link? Sure, provided the local business community chips in with some jack which they have been long loath to do. Filling the back and the belly of a 767 should not be too much of a problem, but as the problem with AA and TWA before that the premium cabin was the issue.

My guess is this would have more to do with beyond London connectivity than just LHR-STL O&D. Just not a lot of the low-hanging fruit left to be found...

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BlueShamu330s
Posted 2013-07-30 13:01:44 and read 22027 times.

I can see the reinstatement of MSY before STL.

STL on BA metal..? Just can't see it.  

Rgds

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2013-07-30 13:03:12 and read 22004 times.

I wish STL luck and I hope the city does get a Euro nonstop again one day.

MSY for example is putting together a plan to restore a nonstop link to London and/or Paris, but whether it starts or not is based on financial incentives from the state and local businesses. That's the name of the game for second tier metros nowadays...money talks. Without hub feed, the best bet for a lot of these cities would be 757 service, but those unfortunately do not have the range for many markets.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jmy007
Posted 2013-07-30 14:14:54 and read 21516 times.

It no longer shows on Lamberts Wiki site, though it does still appear on Heathrow's.

It's highly unlikely, though it's nice to dream. AA last serivce to LGW was in November of 2003

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-07-30 14:25:58 and read 21402 times.

Quoting jmy007 (Reply 9):
It's highly unlikely, though it's nice to dream. AA last serivce to LGW was in November of 2003

I think you mean AA's last service to LGW from STL was in 11/2003.

I can't speak specifically on whether BA or AA intends to resume STL-LHR, but that is the kind of market that the 787 is for. It's meant to make less dense routes like SAN-NRT, SJC-NRT or STL-LHR to be operated profitably. I could see that route coming back sometime.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jmy007
Posted 2013-07-30 14:51:19 and read 21222 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 10):
I think you mean AA's last service to LGW from STL was in 11/2003.

Yes, that's what I meant, thanks!

I think if BA would launch service to STL, I think we'd of heard it hear on a.net well before a random joker put it on Wiki.

That being said, I do agree that a 787 would work nicely, if the St.Louis can come up with a nice compensation package to lure BA or any carrier for that matter intrested in a route to Europe (such as RDU with AA)

I think that package is what STL hasn't/won't/or has come up short with in attracting European service.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-07-30 15:01:11 and read 21158 times.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 3):
Compare that with much smaller cities in Canada (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Halifax), I am always amazed how overseas traffic is so concentrated in the US.

I wouldn't say LHR-U.S. traffic is that concentrated with nonstop service to 22 U.S. cities.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 4):
STL had a non-stop to LGW until about 2002 when AA killed it, along with most of TWA's former STL flights.

I think STL's first nonstop transatlantic service was British Caledonian to LGW which I believe started in April 1980 with 707s and was upguaged to DC-10s a few months later when STL became an intermediate stop to DFW. The nonstop STL-LGW service was dropped a couple of years later and STL then became a tag-on from ATL. If memory correct they reinstated nonstop service to LGW again briefly somewhat later and had a feeder arrangement with Ozark, before dropping STL (and several other US destinations) when B.Cal ran into financial problems in the mid-80s which prompted their merger with BA in 1987. They would have lost their feed from Ozark anyway in 1986 when Ozark merged with TWA.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jmy007
Posted 2013-07-30 15:13:29 and read 21070 times.

If memory serves, B.Cal stop STL altogether in late 1984. There was was no London service for about 6 months or so, when TWA took over the route authority and started flying STL-LGW in 1985 (along with CDG and FRA at about the same time)
-btw, there is a great picture floating around the web of a B.Cal DC-10 doing a fly over of downtown St. Louis.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-07-30 15:23:28 and read 20987 times.

How can ST Louis possibly support a LHR flight when they no longer have a hub there. Then the biggest customer, Anhauser-Busch was sold to Imbev back in 2008. AB use to be liberal with their travel policies, Imbev is very restrictive.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: psa1011
Posted 2013-07-30 15:26:11 and read 20943 times.

Quoting jmy007 (Reply 13):
If memory serves, B.Cal stop STL altogether in late 1984. There was was no London service for about 6 months or so, when TWA took over the route authority and started flying STL-LGW in 1985 (along with CDG and FRA at about the same time)

I knew TWA flew STL-LHR/CDG, but didn't know FRA was ever flown.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-07-30 15:33:20 and read 20895 times.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 3):
Canada (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Halifax),

Calgary, Edmonton = Oil traffic. STL no oil
Ottawa = Gov't traffic. STL no Govt traffic
Halifax can be made with a standard config 319. STL..not in range of a narrow body.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-07-30 15:38:46 and read 20865 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 16):
Halifax can be made with a standard config 319.

YHZ-LHR would be 300 to 400 miles further than any other AC A319 nonstops. They haven't operated a narrow-body on YHZ-LHR since the DC-8 was retired. They do use the A319 on YYT-LHR but that's 471 nm shorter than YHZ-LHR.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jmy007
Posted 2013-07-30 15:43:22 and read 20822 times.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 15):
I knew TWA flew STL-LHR/CDG, but didn't know FRA was ever flown.

Yes, they flew it off and on seasonly until the early to mid 90's. It was TW748, iirc.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: AS737MAX
Posted 2013-07-30 15:46:36 and read 20797 times.

For example, in PDX (where i am) our AMS and NRT service is sustained mostly because of Nike HQ, Adidas North America HQ, Vestas N.A. HQ, Freightliner, large Intel Presence. Are there any large businesses HQ'ed in STL that would help sustain STL-LHR?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-07-30 16:10:56 and read 20685 times.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 5):
Yep - STL is the 19th largest MSA in the country, ahead of BWI, DEN, PIT, CLT, PDX, MCO, CVG, and CLE to name a few.

Actually the Combined Statistical population for the Denver-Aurora-Boulder-Greeley area is about 3.2M est. for 2012, and to the south the Colorado Springs metro area may add some 600K to the catchment to DEN, while the same number for the St. Louis-Farmington-Centralia is 2.9M, while the Cape Girardeau-Sikeston Combined Statistical Area to the south may add some 140K to the catchment of STL. A difference in the catchements of some 800K?

I agree that STL could probably support a nonstop into LHR....... but to the airlines...... there are probably so many more lucrative routes to fly from LHR with slot-pairs selling now for some what..... $40M?

I also think that it's good that DEN got in a while ago a proved this a good route for BA...... they keep flying it so...... but had DEN not had its LRH link today...... I think that under the present conditions, it would be hard for even them to get a LHR slot pair. The same for most mid-sized U.S. cities at this point. Maybe things could change a bit if LHR ever gets another runway and can handle more flights.

That all being said....... it would be great and quite a feat if STL could manage to land a nonstop into LHR. Even LGW could be a good catch. All the best to the STL management and those involved to get this flight.

 

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: SESGDL
Posted 2013-07-30 16:37:41 and read 20569 times.

STL-Europe is not going to happen anytime soon. STL as a market is simply not large enough a market to support it. While STL-London is not tiny, it's also not very large and has declined considerably, with less than 40 PDEW O&D. The next largest market to Europe, Frankfurt, is a little over half that. Paris is even smaller. Having less than 150 O&D PDEW between STL and all of Europe's major markets is not going to support a flight without a hub at STL. The reason STL-London, Paris, and Frankfurt once existed is because of TW's massive hub there. STL once had over 50,000 daily seats and was larger than current hubs for AA in ORD, UA in DEN, and DL in MSP and DTW. Without those immense connections, STL-Europe is simply not a possibility.

Jeremy

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: cedarjet
Posted 2013-07-30 17:05:09 and read 20417 times.

The rule of a.net is, the less likely something is to happen, the longer the thread discussion such a thing is, and service from London to St Louis is no exception apparently - when a straight "no way" would do, we're already past 20 replies and my prediction is 40+.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
How can St Louis possibly support a LHR flight when they no longer have a hub there.

Exactly. When TWA flew to London, they had 100 flights coming in to feed it. Nowadays there's no domestic feed, which probably leaves about 12 EU-bound pax per day originating at STL.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 5):
Yep - STL is the 19th largest MSA in the country, ahead of BWI, DEN, PIT, CLT, PDX, MCO, CVG, and CLE to name a few

OK well the "W" in "BWI" refers to the nation's capital; DEN is way bigger than STL, sorry; PIT no TATL service; CLT is one of the biggest hubs in the USA providing USAir with mega feed, and the city is the second biggest banking centre in North America, generating lots of the kind of high-end business traffic that would be like sci fi to STL; PDX has Nike, yet just one TATL service; MCO, are you joking? the biggest leisure destination in North America; CVG only has one flight to CDG and that relies on mega (albeit diminishing) feed by DL; CLE no TATL service. So you've listed some cities that have no TATL service, and others (Washington, Orlando) that have millions of European visitors a year.

STL will get TATL service when someone builds a mega hub there like TWA did, or when they find lots of oil under that big arch thing (which I would like to visit).

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-07-30 17:15:15 and read 20374 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
How can St Louis possibly support a LHR flight when they no longer have a hub there.

Exactly. When TWA flew to London, they had 100 flights coming in to feed it. Nowadays there's no domestic feed, which probably leaves about 12 EU-bound pax per day originating at STL.

AA still operates RDU-LHR although RDU is no longer a hub (it was a small AA hub fairly briefly). RDU metro area population is also significantly smaller than STL.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: PITrules
Posted 2013-07-30 17:26:44 and read 20301 times.

Quoting BlueShamu330s (Reply 7):
I can see the reinstatement of MSY before STL

STL metro area is more than twice as large as New Orleans, and is a much larger business center. Probably a better location for freight forwarders as well.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
OK well the "W" in "BWI" refers to the nation's capital; DEN is way bigger than STL, sorry; PIT no TATL service; CLT is one of the biggest hubs in the USA providing USAir with mega feed, and the city is the second biggest banking centre in North America, generating lots of the kind of high-end business traffic that would be like sci fi to STL; PDX has Nike, yet just one TATL service; MCO, are you joking? the biggest leisure destination in North America; CVG only has one flight to CDG and that relies on mega (albeit diminishing) feed by DL; CLE no TATL service. So you've listed some cities that have no TATL service, and others (Washington, Orlando) that have millions of European visitors a year.

PIT has had TATL service for 5 years now, although only on a seasonal basis.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BigGSFO
Posted 2013-07-30 17:28:29 and read 20984 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 23):
AA still operates RDU-LHR although RDU is no longer a hub (it was a small AA hub fairly briefly). RDU metro area population is also significantly smaller than STL.

This flight is heavily subsidized by local corporations (one of the pharmas I believe).

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: cedarjet
Posted 2013-07-30 17:28:50 and read 21016 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 23):
AA still operates RDU-LHR although RDU is no longer a hub (it was a small AA hub fairly briefly). RDU metro area population is also significantly smaller than STL.

It isn't representative - GlaxoSmithKline guarantee a number of tickets per year as they have a major operation at RDU in the Research Triangle Park and another HQ right next to LHR. Bear in mind the flight is only op by 767 btw. If STL could lure such a corporation to their city, perhaps then they would finally be back in the TATL map. Given it's location in the middle of the country, perhaps one day they will. Meanwhile, travellers to and from STL will continue to fly via ORD et al.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: ADent
Posted 2013-07-30 17:33:36 and read 21152 times.

Does STL still have a lot of AA frequent fliers? BA would pick up many of those travelers, especially with an AA code share on it.

787 would be a good plane to try a market like this.

Still do not see the real demand for this that can't be met by connecting somewhere.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BMI727
Posted 2013-07-30 17:40:44 and read 21078 times.

Quoting psa1011 (Thread starter):
Is this for real?

No.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 3):
Compare that with much smaller cities in Canada (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Halifax), I am always amazed how overseas traffic is so concentrated in the US.

Canadians travel further more often. And some live near oil.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 10):
I can't speak specifically on whether BA or AA intends to resume STL-LHR, but that is the kind of market that the 787 is for.

You wouldn't waste valuable slots on St. Louis, and no other market would stand a chance.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 19):
Are there any large businesses HQ'ed in STL that would help sustain STL-LHR?

Quite a few, but they won't get together and write a check, so there won't be a transatlantic flight.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
and the city is the second biggest banking centre in North America, generating lots of the kind of high-end business traffic that would be like sci fi to STL

The St. Louis area is actually home to three major financial firms, but they are mostly consumer oriented.

Quoting PITrules (Reply 24):
STL metro area is more than twice as large as New Orleans, and is a much larger business center. Probably a better location for freight forwarders as well.

Not if you're trying to fly to South America and carry flowers. (Or other plant products)

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: SESGDL
Posted 2013-07-30 17:50:13 and read 21007 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
Exactly. When TWA flew to London, they had 100 flights coming in to feed it. Nowadays there's no domestic feed, which probably leaves about 12 EU-bound pax per day originating at STL.

This is wayyy off. STL-London alone is nearly 40 O&D PDEW. 12? Really? This is a metro area of nearly 3 million we're talking about, not Dubuque, Iowa.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
OK well the "W" in "BWI" refers to the nation's capital; DEN is way bigger than STL, sorry; PIT no TATL service;

Baltimore provides very little in the way of O&D for DCA and IAD to feed to Europe. DEN is not way bigger than STL, but actually quite a bit smaller. PIT does have TATL service. Good use of facts though...  

Jeremy

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: PITrules
Posted 2013-07-30 17:52:03 and read 20888 times.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 28):

Not if you're trying to fly to South America and carry flowers. (Or other plant products)

How is that? I don't think MSY has any flights to S. America. BTW, flowers don't go to South America, they come from South America. Incidentally, Mid America actually did (and still might) have all cargo flights specifically targeting the S. America flower market.

Regardless, flowers are a tiny fraction of the overall cargo market between the US and Europe, and that portion is most likely dominated by MIA. I'd still put my money on STL being in a better position overall for air cargo to/from Europe than MSY.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: MSYtristar
Posted 2013-07-30 18:08:49 and read 20705 times.

Quoting PITrules (Reply 24):
STL metro area is more than twice as large as New Orleans, and is a much larger business center. Probably a better location for freight forwarders as well.

Unlike STL, however, MSY would be more of a draw for European tourists. It's a destination city, and its regional business climate is nothing to sneeze at. I'm not arguing that STL wouldn't get a flight before MSY based on its population and business base, but based on overall destination appeal, I wouldn't necessarily bet against MSY getting a flight first. It's going to come down to money regardless. MSY is actively pursuing a flight to Europe and is counting on incentives to seal the deal. I'm quite sure STL could do the same.

Quoting PITrules (Reply 30):
I'd still put my money on STL being in a better position overall for air cargo to/from Europe than MSY.

Right now, yes without question. Most of the cargo traffic going through New Orleans is going via ship and barge. When the new air terminal opens in 2018 and the land where the current facility is located is converted into an intermodal facility tying together sea, rail, land, and air, that could potentially change. Who knows?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: cornishsimon
Posted 2013-07-30 18:25:13 and read 20531 times.

If BA were to serve STL or indeed MSY these would be unlikely to be served ex LHR, however I suppose at a long shot they could get service to LGW on either BA metal or on an AA bird with BA flight number carried also.

The problem for this would be the lack of BA/OW feed into LGW as it currently stands.


cs

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-07-30 18:48:12 and read 20236 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):

STL will get TATL service when someone builds a mega hub there like TWA did, or when they find lots of oil under that big arch thing (which I would like to visit).

It is impressive, but don't set aside more than about three hours for it!

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2013-07-30 19:24:27 and read 19864 times.

I would have thought even back in the day when AA scaled back to a mini hub it would have been possible but now not sure sure. Maybe but it would probably have to have some kick ins in the form of a revenue guarantee supported by local businesses

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-07-30 20:31:06 and read 19365 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 29):
DEN is not way bigger than STL, but actually quite a bit smaller. PIT does have TATL service. Good use of facts though...  

The population is pointless discussion.

ts the o&d, o&d willingness to pay a premium for a non-stop, connection potential, and number of people willing to pay for premium class seats. DEN absolutely crushes STL in all of these measures. BA fills its premium cabins out of DEN and o&d is much much larger. It doesn't matter that DEN or any city is smaller it has the economy and people to sustain the service. STL probably has very little premium traffic and very little willingness to pay a premium for a non-stop. Its just way too small a market and wouldn't work even if LHR slots were not so valuable. The fact that LHR slots are so valuable makes this have no chance.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: ORDJOE
Posted 2013-07-30 21:10:44 and read 19077 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 35):
STL probably has very little premium traffic and very little willingness to pay a premium for a non-stop. Its just way too small a market and wouldn't work even if LHR slots were not so valuable.

Agreed Denver is far economically better off than STL I just do not see many paying to sit on the north side of the cabin coming from STL


I think yes they probably could fill a 767 or a 787, but that is not saying much. The biggest issue most likely is BA/AA might get 1million or so of revenue by tying up a plane and slot for STL versus a 2 million in revenue for the same plane and slot in another city.

While not likely I would admit, but DL seems willing to take on some non hub international routes perhaps one day they could try for STL-CDG or AMS.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: r2rho
Posted 2013-07-31 04:47:20 and read 16463 times.

Quoting ORDJOE (Reply 36):
I think yes they probably could fill a 767 or a 787, but that is not saying much. The biggest issue most likely is BA/AA might get 1million or so of revenue by tying up a plane and slot for STL versus a 2 million in revenue for the same plane and slot in another city.

I think a 767 or 788 (not necessarily daily) would work to LHR if it had plenty of slots to offer...which it doesn't. So lower-yielding connection-dependent destinations, like STL, have no chance against high-yielding O&D. And out of all EU destinations, LON would be the only one that would work... there is LGW...but it would be too O&D dependent on both ends, so little chance there too.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-07-31 05:43:05 and read 15964 times.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 29):
DEN is not way bigger than STL, but actually quite a bit smaller.

Using straight MSA listings is disingenuous. They do not include the COS metro for Denver for which most passengers choose DEN. DEN draws from most of Colorado plus half of Wyoming and a chunk of Nebraska. STL is limited in catchment due to MCI taking half the state's traffic. This is of course not taking into consideration the smaller airports in the state. There is more dilution in air traffic around STL than there is in the Mountain West.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: AA94
Posted 2013-07-31 05:44:46 and read 15974 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
OK well the "W" in "BWI" refers to the nation's capital; DEN is way bigger than STL, sorry; PIT no TATL service; CLT is one of the biggest hubs in the USA providing USAir with mega feed, and the city is the second biggest banking centre in North America, generating lots of the kind of high-end business traffic that would be like sci fi to STL; PDX has Nike, yet just one TATL service; MCO, are you joking? the biggest leisure destination in North America; CVG only has one flight to CDG and that relies on mega (albeit diminishing) feed by DL; CLE no TATL service. So you've listed some cities that have no TATL service, and others (Washington, Orlando) that have millions of European visitors a year.

As a BWI-er, I'd love to agree with you, but the reality is that BWI provides very little in the way of international visitors to the Washington area. Visitors from Europe and beyond are much more likely to visit the DC area by way of IAD, which has the largest international airline presence in the region. BWI is really the airport for suburban Marylanders to get their families to Disney World or Cancun. BWI-LHR is the only scheduled TATL service we have.

Quoting ORDJOE (Reply 36):
I think yes they probably could fill a 767 or a 787, but that is not saying much. The biggest issue most likely is BA/AA might get 1million or so of revenue by tying up a plane and slot for STL versus a 2 million in revenue for the same plane and slot in another city.

  

... and this is the key, I think. BA could probably fill the plane enough to make it cost effective, but there are other destinations that are likely more lucrative and better use of a LHR slot.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-07-31 06:50:26 and read 15521 times.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 15):

I knew TWA flew STL-LHR/CDG, but didn't know FRA was ever flown.

TWA did fly many LHR routes but NOT from ST. Louis. TWA flew from St.Louis to LGW.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 23):
AA still operates RDU-LHR although RDU is no longer a hub (it was a small AA hub fairly briefly). RDU metro area population is also significantly smaller than STL.

AA has a contract with a NC based drug company which supplies enough revenue for the flight.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: psa1011
Posted 2013-07-31 08:47:38 and read 14610 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 40):
TWA did fly many LHR routes but NOT from ST. Louis. TWA flew from St.Louis to LGW.

Correct, I made a typo.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: OA412
Posted 2013-07-31 09:21:31 and read 14353 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
DEN is way bigger than STL, sorry

The city itself is not "way bigger." In fact, the two MSAs are on a pretty even keel.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 29):
DEN is not way bigger than STL, but actually quite a bit smaller.

DEN is not quite a bit smaller than STL. MSA is tricky because it doesn't include certain parts of Colorado that have no alternative but to use DEN such as Boulder and Greeley. When you include those, the MSA jumps to about 3.1 million.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 38):
Using straight MSA listings is disingenuous. They do not include the COS metro for Denver for which most passengers choose DEN. DEN draws from most of Colorado plus half of Wyoming and a chunk of Nebraska.

Exactly. I don't know what STL's catchment area is, but DENs is absolutely larger than just the DEN MSA. Add in the fact that it's the largest city in the Intermountain West and home to a lot of regional headquarters, rather geographically isolated from other large cities, and you get a lot more traffic than other similarly sized cities.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-07-31 09:46:15 and read 14105 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 26):
It isn't representative - GlaxoSmithKline guarantee a number of tickets per year as they have a major operation at RDU in the Research Triangle Park and another HQ right next to LHR.

That would explain why the flight operates in LHR and not in another LON (read cheaper) airport)

Quote:
Bear in mind the flight is only op by 767 btw. If STL could lure such a corporation to their city, perhaps then they would finally be back in the TATL map. Given it's location in the middle of the country, perhaps one day they will...

Egg before the chicken, STL have to get a corporation or corporations to sponsor a LON flight.

Quoting cornishsimon (Reply 32):
If BA were to serve STL or indeed MSY these would be unlikely to be served ex LHR, however I suppose at a long shot they could get service to LGW on either BA metal or on an AA bird with BA flight number carried also.

BA MSY may work from LGW, since as a destination stands in the same group as MCO and TPA.
BA STL would be another thing; Those BA LHR connections would make very attractive any BA LHR-STL service.

Seems U.S. airports looking for international service always focus in a LON or PAR or TYO non-stop flight, as it seems a flight to MEX or to a hub in Latin America isn't worth asking for.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: flylku
Posted 2013-07-31 09:51:40 and read 14043 times.

[quoteHow can ST Louis possibly support a LHR flight when they no longer have a hub there. Then the biggest customer, Anhauser-Busch was sold to Imbev back in 2008. AB use to be liberal with their travel policies, Imbev is very restrictive.jfk777,reply=14]
[/quote]

The hub is on the east side of the Atlantic.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-07-31 10:26:29 and read 13732 times.

Quoting flylku (Reply 44):
[quoteHow can ST Louis possibly support a LHR flight when they no longer have a hub there. Then the biggest customer, Anhauser-Busch was sold to Imbev back in 2008. AB use to be liberal with their travel policies, Imbev is very restrictive.jfk777,reply=14]

The hub is on the east side of the Atlantic.[/quote]

By that reasoning remember when TWA flew to LGW it was a bigger hub then today. BY that thinking BA should fly to Kansas City, Detroit, Hartford, New Orleans, Portland, OR and many other large small cities.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-07-31 11:40:49 and read 13187 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 45):
BY that thinking BA should fly to Kansas City, Detroit, Hartford, New Orleans, Portland, OR and many other large small cities.

BA to MCI? STL stands more of a chance.
BA flew to DTW and MSY before.
Had BA B757, BDL could have worked but from LHR, doubt from LGW because lack of European connections.
Seems both DTW and PDX already do have LON flights.
Other airports in the same group for BA LON flights would be: PIT, IND, MKE, MSP, CLE (UA's turf), CVG..

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: flylku
Posted 2013-07-31 11:47:14 and read 13115 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 45):

By that reasoning remember when TWA flew to LGW it was a bigger hub then today. BY that thinking BA should fly to Kansas City, Detroit, Hartford, New Orleans, Portland, OR and many other large small cities.

I am just pointing out, indirectly, that often we are North America centric in our view. Take ANA (or is it JAL) SAN-NRT. SAN is not a hub but NRT certainly is.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: AS737MAX
Posted 2013-07-31 11:47:40 and read 13136 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 45):

I've thought about what if BA started PDX-LHR with the 787, but the slots aren't readily available considering DL just paid AZ $40 million for SEA-LHR

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jumpjets
Posted 2013-07-31 13:33:20 and read 12835 times.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 48):
but the slots aren't readily available considering DL just paid AZ $40 million for SEA-LHR

I think BA is more constrained by the lack of planes to fly new routes as they have a good number of ex-BD slots to play with if they wanted to introduce more long-haul destinations. BA/IAG have made it clear that when they have extra capacity then new routes will follow - whether they will include STL/CVG etc etc will remain to be seen - but I guess such places as CGK;KUL; and mainland China may well have a higher priority.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-07-31 13:45:29 and read 12786 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 46):
Seems both DTW and PDX already do have LON flights.

No PDX does not. It only has AMS. It's speculated that DL may add PDX-CDG, or hoped that BA may add PDX-LHR but neither have happened.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-07-31 14:04:24 and read 12703 times.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 46):
BA flew to DTW and MSY before.

BA commenced LGW-MSY-MEX with the L-1011 3 x week starting in mid-1981. I think MSY ended sometime in 1983 when BA sold their 6 L-1011-500s to the RAF and dropped quite a few destinations in an effort to cut heavy losses.

Since MSY was a new U.S. destination, they weren't permitted to operate it from LHR under provisions of the new Bermuda 2 bilateral that had been agreed the previous year.

To MEX, the LGW-MSY-MEX route replaced BA's previous multi-stop 707 service LHR-BDA-NAS-KIN-MEX.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-07-31 14:12:22 and read 12657 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 35):
ts the o&d, o&d willingness to pay a premium for a non-stop, connection potential, and number of people willing to pay for premium class seats. DEN absolutely crushes STL in all of these measures. BA fills its premium cabins out of DEN and o&d is much much larger.

From the Brookings Institute air travel study

DEN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 334
STL - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 78

and just to throw this in, BA's route added in the U.S.

SAN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 198

and a couple of others

RDU - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 176
TPA - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 376 - current service to LGW


Quoting jumpjets (Reply 49):
I think BA is more constrained by the lack of planes to fly new routes as they have a good number of ex-BD slots to play with if they wanted to introduce more long-haul destinations. BA/IAG have made it clear that when they have extra capacity then new routes will follow

Okay, how about some outside-the-box thinking here. Let's say BA wanted to use three slot pairs, which would give it 21x weekly flights to/from. Then they magically found 767s to fly these routes for these slots. From this, we take the largest combined statistical areas in the U.S not currently served from LHR, and these would be CLE, PDX, STL, and PIT. Now, BA could give these four areas at least 5x weekly flights, and 1 would get 6x weekly. This could definitely increase U.S. nonstop routes to/from LRH. Although, O&D numbers for each, as above are CLE - 67, PDX - 97, STL - 78 (we knew that) and PIT - 80.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 48):
considering DL just paid AZ $40 million for SEA-LHR

Of course, with the above, these 3 slot pairs would be worth some $120M........

 

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jmy007
Posted 2013-07-31 14:38:22 and read 12539 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 52):
From the Brookings Institute air travel study

DEN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 334
STL - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 78

But isn't really important to look at the over all O&D numbers to and from Europe and beyond? How many people, in addiation to the 78 going to London, would transit to points beyond (or to STL) on BA or what ever European carrier, for arguments sake.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-07-31 15:06:42 and read 12464 times.

Quoting jmy007 (Reply 53):
But isn't really important to look at the over all O&D numbers to and from Europe and beyond? How many people, in addiation to the 78 going to London, would transit to points beyond (or to STL) on BA or what ever European carrier, for arguments sake.

Between Eastern and Western Europe, as the Brookings Report classifies their travel points, STL has just about 500 total daily average of O&D pax to/from here. The Middle East and Africa contribute about another 85 of the same.

But the reality of airlines is to first look at overall O&D numbers between two points these days to make decisions on routes. Setting up connects seems to be a thing of the 80s and 90s........

 



[Edited 2013-07-31 15:08:42]

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: steex
Posted 2013-07-31 15:21:18 and read 12428 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 52):
Although, O&D numbers for each, as above are CLE - 67, PDX - 97, STL - 78 (we knew that) and PIT - 80.

Among these, STL may be the most attractive given that PDX and PIT do already have TATL service that would dilute the connecting pax pool more. Of course, that's not to say BA would (or should) start any of them in the near future.

Quoting jmy007 (Reply 53):
But isn't really important to look at the over all O&D numbers to and from Europe and beyond? How many people, in addiation to the 78 going to London, would transit to points beyond (or to STL) on BA or what ever European carrier, for arguments sake.

Yes and no. A large proportion of the folks connecting would be going other places already available one-stop via hubs on this side of the pond. There is certainly a segment of the population that will prefer flying the TATL segment first then connecting at LHR, though.

Quoting point2point (Reply 54):
But the reality of airlines is to first look at overall O&D numbers between two points these days to make decisions on routes.

Exactly. The connections help fill the plane, but the route will pretty much live or die by the O&D pax. They'd probably be more likely to try a route with a higher likelihood to capture connecting traffic if the O&D and yield were theoretically equal, though. BA wouldn't be too likely to start PIT because they'd be fighting with the DL/CDG operation for connecting traffic to supplement O&D, whereas they'd be the only TATL game in town if they tried STL.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: yegbey01
Posted 2013-07-31 15:34:46 and read 12363 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 52):
From the Brookings Institute air travel study

DEN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 334
STL - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 78

and just to throw this in, BA's route added in the U.S.

SAN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 198

and a couple of others

RDU - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 176
TPA - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 376 - current service to LGW


Do you have a link to the study.

Thanks!

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-07-31 15:42:11 and read 12364 times.

Just wondering what is SLC o&d to LON daily? Delta has said that flight will probably launch eventually multiple times now.

Over STL it has many advantages on its side such a full hub on the one side, the new virgin atlantic link to offer connections in LHR, a real chance to stimulate traffic with tourists both directions, etc. Just wondering what the o&d traffic is right now.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-07-31 15:53:00 and read 12332 times.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 56):
Do you have a link to the study.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/aviation

This is the opening page for NY/NJ area, but there are pull-down menus for different metro areas that one will eventually find, as well as top 200 destinations for each metro area. Pull downs on my computer are the blue "here"

And just to remember, the pax numbers stated here are totals between two points. PDEW is half of the stated number, and yearly numbers are given in 2003 and 2011, so to get average daily numbers (duh) divide by 365.......



Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 57):
Just wondering what is SLC o&d to LON daily?

SLC - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 90

 

[Edited 2013-07-31 15:56:26]

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: AS737MAX
Posted 2013-07-31 16:02:33 and read 12312 times.

Does anyone think BA would start PDX-LHR? I am grateful for the DL flights to NRT and AMS, but DL's paint is boring. The first 2 BA 787 Destinations are EWR and Posted 2013-07-31 16:12:26 and read 12258 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 52):
From this, we take the largest combined statistical areas in the U.S not currently served from LHR, and these would be CLE, PDX, STL, and PIT.

It'd be more nuanced than that, simply looking at the largest metro areas un-served from LHR as a probability of gaining service from LHR wouldn't be accurate. Yields and demographics would be looked at first as well as the size of the actual market between XXX and LHR. Going with the type of cities we've been discussing, the largest un-served markets to LHR are (and I'm just going with an arbitrary minimum baseline of 35 PDEW) SLC- 45 PDEW, IND- 42, MSY- 41, PIT- 40, STL- 39, BNA- 37, CVG- 36 and MCI- 36....and then of course connecting traffic to markets beyond LHR would be factored in along with their yields

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-07-31 16:31:33 and read 12201 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 60):
It'd be more nuanced than that,

Yes, I could agree that one could do that as well..... I just threw out the notion that BA doesn't have to pick one U.S. airport to serve, and then go with a daily flight to/from LHR. Some of these metro areas (okay, probably all of these metro areas that we're talking about here) simply could not fill a plane to LHR on a daily basis while getting any sort of decent yield..... so sub-weekly service (3x, 4x, 5x) could be spread throughout these handful of cities and this would be an approach. And sub-weekly flights would be the approach to take at first with these secondary type airports/cities - and not meaning to cause any offense to anyone here with this phrase, it's just what I'll call them. Let's assume that STL would be one of those cities, as for the rest....... anyone can pick their best choices.......

 

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: PITrules
Posted 2013-07-31 16:59:35 and read 12176 times.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 60):
It'd be more nuanced than that, simply looking at the largest metro areas un-served from LHR as a probability of gaining service from LHR wouldn't be accurate. Yields and demographics would be looked at first as well as the size of the actual market between XXX and LHR. Going with the type of cities we've been discussing, the largest un-served markets to LHR are (and I'm just going with an arbitrary minimum baseline of 35 PDEW) SLC- 45 PDEW, IND- 42, MSY- 41, PIT- 40, STL- 39, BNA- 37, CVG- 36 and MCI- 36....and then of course connecting traffic to markets beyond LHR would be factored in along with their yields

Add to this the 757 factor. BDL, CLE, DTW, PIT, CVG can be served with ATI partner AA 757s. The rest can't.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-07-31 17:04:30 and read 12133 times.

Quoting flylku (Reply 47):
I am just pointing out, indirectly, that often we are North America centric in our view. Take ANA (or is it JAL) SAN-NRT. SAN is not a hub but NRT certainly is.

Just because a European airline would fly to STL from their hub doesn;t mean these flights are viable. IF that were the case LH, AF,KLM, BA and VS should all be serving STL. Asians airlines such as Cathay, JAL and Korean with an A380 from ICN no less would be flying to BUD headquarters too. If the world worked that way then every US city with a milion people would have the big airlines from Asia & Europe. The only destination in the mid west with the big Asians and Euros is ORD.

San Diego is a west coast city, the only that didn't have NRT flights. STL is in the middle of this fine country but SAN has big differences. San Diego is a hair from the Mexican border where it can draw passengers and cargo from. The main reason SAN didn't have an NRT flight until now is the physical limitation of of Lindburgh field with mountains and short runways for long haul planes. The 787 has very take off performance.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-07-31 17:56:21 and read 12029 times.

A city like bdl probably is much larger market than numbers show, Probably a large number drive to JFK and ewr for low fares and tons of non stops. It would be easy to fill it's a question of fares. I think bdl would have more premium demand than other cities plus 757 range.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: VV701
Posted 2013-08-01 09:28:02 and read 11628 times.

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 49):
I think BA is more constrained by the lack of planes to fly new routes as they have a good number of ex-BD slots to play with if they wanted to introduce more long-haul destinations.

  

BA obtained 42 daily LHR slot pairs when they bought BD. (They had also bought 6 daily former BD LHR slot pairs from Lufthansa Group before BD was put up for sale.) BA CEO Willy Walsh has publicly stated that around 12 of these slot pairs will be used for new long-haul flights. So far BA have announced the use of 1.5 of these slot pairs with a daily flight to ICN that started on 2 December 2012 and a three-times weekly flight to CTU due to start on 22 September.

To address the shortage of long-haul aircraft BA signed an agreement with Air Lease to lease two 77Ws for 10 years with delivery in Summer 2014. At the time of the announcement BA already had orders with Boeing to buy four 77Ws. Two of these aircraft are scheduled for delivery late this year with the second pair nor due until late 2014. So the Air Lease deal gives BA access to two more long-haul aircraft about six months prior to the delivery of the second pair they had themselves ordered.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-08-01 09:40:00 and read 11591 times.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
STL will get TATL service when someone builds a mega hub there like TWA did, or when they find lots of oil under that big arch thing (which I would like to visit).

  
Common sense usualy wins  
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 23):
AA still operates RDU-LHR although RDU is no longer a hub (it was a small AA hub fairly briefly). RDU metro area population is also significantly smaller than STL.

RDU has a stronger and modern economy, and the flight is subsidized by local businesses. Two things STL does not have.
BOS has a catchment area similar to STL and it has over a dozen daily flights to Europe despite not being a hub either. It's all in the local economy and what the city has to offer to foreign visitors. STL has virtually no inbound tourism, least of all from overseas.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Lambertman
Posted 2013-08-02 15:47:34 and read 10895 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 52):

From the Brookings Institute air travel study

DEN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 334
STL - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 78

and just to throw this in, BA's route added in the U.S.

SAN - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 198

and a couple of others

RDU - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 176
TPA - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 376 - current service to LGW

Working in market research for a living and having numerous encounters with the Brookings Institute, I can say with 100% confidence that the Brookings numbers published are inflated/deflated by the presence/lack of a non-stop link.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 42):
Exactly. I don't know what STL's catchment area is, but DENs is absolutely larger than just the DEN MSA. Add in the fact that it's the largest city in the Intermountain West and home to a lot of regional headquarters, rather geographically isolated from other large cities, and you get a lot more traffic than other similarly sized cities.

Denver's catchment area includes Colorado Springs and the market economy has a fair amount of tourism that is not present in St. Louis. A better overall view of economic vitality in a region is looking at metropolitan GDP - Denver was at $162 B in 2012 while St. Louis was at $130 B. That's a gap of about 20% - which is probably reasonable.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 66):

RDU has a stronger and modern economy, and the flight is subsidized by local businesses. Two things STL does not have.

St. Louis economy has underwent a significant change over the past five years and has made significant strides in the area of technology and research. The groundwork is being laid for something much bigger. I don't necessarily agree with your blanket statement.

As for an LHR link, it will not happen without an incentives package and an upgrade in facilities. The current E gates are an absolute embarrassment for the city and region with the purple walls and shuttered storefronts. If memory serves me correctly, I think British Airways even visited St. Louis in early 2008 - coverage was provided on Channel 2 or 5. I can't remember.

Either way, its hard to imagine BA taking the jump on a route whose upside would probably be a fringe performer, at best. It would need to be 2 to 4x weekly in the winter, perhaps jumping to daily in the summer. I know for a fact the flight did well for TW in summer months (as opposed to CDG ,which was a total dog), but I think there was a substantial cargo contract with Malinckrodt (sp?).

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: thegreatRDU
Posted 2013-08-09 19:50:04 and read 10017 times.

Not a chance in hell,

Thank You and have a good night everybody.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-08-09 22:42:26 and read 9798 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 67):
Working in market research for a living and having numerous encounters with the Brookings Institute, I can say with 100% confidence that the Brookings numbers published are inflated/deflated by the presence/lack of a non-stop link.

Somehow it would be better if research were to be able to be done with zip codes, where people begin before they board the plane at whatever airport they board, and then a destination postal code as well.... or something of that sort. Yes, people can drive a distance in order to get a long-haul flight, and sometimes it's just not there as to how much Brookings is deviant from actual real-life occurrences. Nonetheless, if Brookings is about + 7% -, or correct with about 85% of its publishings, then the data is probably the best we have at this time that is available in public. And they are probably much lower in their error rate than I have suggested.

 

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2013-08-09 23:37:17 and read 9739 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 67):
Working in market research for a living and having numerous encounters with the Brookings Institute, I can say with 100% confidence that the Brookings numbers published are inflated/deflated by the presence/lack of a non-stop link.

The old Civil Aeronautics Board in evidentiary hearings used to allow 20% market stimulation solely as a result of adding non-stop service. So if STL has 78 pax without service, with service it could be reasonably expected to produce 94 pax. The additional passengers come both from recapturing 'statistical leakage' to other hubs and the novelty of the service itself.

For the first non-stop service, the statistical stimulation result is usually validated by correlation with data from comparable markets. Discussion in this thread seems to say there is no place quite like St. Louis, so proponents should use a range of approximately comparable cities.

The Brookings pax numbers are deceptive in that they are annualized, whereas we know European travel bulges in the summer. Hence, an average of 94 daily passengers over the year could be expected to produce a profitable less-than-daily summer seasonal flight in a 763-sized plane. Finding the airline willing to operate it is the hard part.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-08-10 00:22:32 and read 9732 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 66):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 23):
AA still operates RDU-LHR although RDU is no longer a hub (it was a small AA hub fairly briefly). RDU metro area population is also significantly smaller than STL.

RDU has a stronger and modern economy, and the flight is subsidized by local businesses. Two things STL does not have.

AA operates RDU-LHR due to the GSK connection and the subsidy by the RDU local business community to support GSK. Without those two elements there is no N/S service on AA. As far as a stronger and more modern economy I guess we will agree to disagree

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 67):
St. Louis economy has underwent a significant change over the past five years and has made significant strides in the area of technology and research. The groundwork is being laid for something much bigger. I don't necessarily agree with your blanket statement.

Concur, although 10 years ago this was not the case.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 66):
BOS has a catchment area similar to STL and it has over a dozen daily flights to Europe despite not being a hub either. It's all in the local economy and what the city has to offer to foreign visitors. STL has virtually no inbound tourism, least of all from overseas.

Catchment area possibly, but from a population standpoint BOS and the surrounding area has almost double the population of the STL metro area, with a much healthier business climate to draw from.

Bottom line, unless the STL business community has finally decided to open their wallets and subsidize a service there will be no London or CDG, FRA, AMS or anywhere else. It is what it is..

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-08-10 08:24:39 and read 9266 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 70):
The old Civil Aeronautics Board in evidentiary hearings used to allow 20% market stimulation solely as a result of adding non-stop service. So if STL has 78 pax without service, with service it could be reasonably expected to produce 94 pax. The additional passengers come both from recapturing 'statistical leakage' to other hubs and the novelty of the service itself.

We know, though, that new longhaul services in other places have produced much more than 20 percent stimulation (look at some of the numbers MAH has posted for new MIA services, for instance). I think it would be difficult to find a new longhaul service from the States that has produced less than 20 percent stimulation, but I'd be happy to be corrected if incorrect.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2013-08-10 14:11:57 and read 8973 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 72):
I think it would be difficult to find a new longhaul service from the States that has produced less than 20 percent stimulation, but I'd be happy to be corrected if incorrect.

You're not the only one to say that. William Swan, a prof at UCSD, claims stimulation up to 35%. Swan's paper (a good read) comes up as an Adobe text if you Google "traffic stimulation from non-stop service"; I couldn't get the actual site address.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BMI727
Posted 2013-08-10 14:22:15 and read 8942 times.

There's still the big elephant in the room that ensures none of this really matters: slots. It doesn't much matter if the stimulation is 20%, 35%, or something else. BA isn't going to burn valuable LHR slots on a flight to STL.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-08-10 14:37:03 and read 8925 times.

Years ago before Open Skies with the EU Senator Danforth Torpedoed a deal for an some kind of route deal with the UK because TWA couldn't get into Heathrow from St. Louis, this was after AA purchased the existing TWA LHR slots. The City of St. Louis should be wishig for any kind of London srvice it can get, Gatwick or Stansted will work too.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: 2travel2know2
Posted 2013-08-10 16:55:50 and read 8753 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 75):
The City of St. Louis should be wishig for any kind of London srvice it can get, Gatwick or Stansted will work too.

Should St Louis negotiate w/ BA for a seasonal May-September + Xmas/New Year 4 weekly LGW-STL-LGW?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Lambertman
Posted 2013-08-10 17:35:04 and read 8825 times.

Quoting thegreatRDU (Reply 68):
Not a chance in hell,

Thank You and have a good night everybody.

I always love these posts. They accomplish nothing and you lose a significant amount of credibility around here. Just stick to the RDU threads desperately hoping for New Orleans flights.....

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 71):
Catchment area possibly, but from a population standpoint BOS and the surrounding area has almost double the population of the STL metro area, with a much healthier business climate to draw from.

Yeah, not sure where the Boston comparisons come from? The best comparison to St. Louis in terms of economic vitality is probably Portland and Baltimore, though each have unique circumstances that dictate transoceanic service - cargo and a forward thinking port authority for PDX, and D.C. plus State subsidies for BWI.

I don't think its a coincidence that whatever flights these cities have subsidies are also needed. St. Louis would be no different and would require facility improvements plus revenue guarantees.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 74):
There's still the big elephant in the room that ensures none of this really matters: slots. It doesn't much matter if the stimulation is 20%, 35%, or something else. BA isn't going to burn valuable LHR slots on a flight to STL.

While I seldom agree with Mr. BMI, the real problem is opportunity cost. British Airways has little incentive to start St. Louis on its own.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-08-11 01:57:52 and read 8622 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 77):
I don't think its a coincidence that whatever flights these cities have subsidies are also needed. St. Louis would be no different and would require facility improvements plus revenue guarantees.

I know all international arrivals at STL operate into T2 (E), which is certainly a dump but I wonder if the old arrivals facility under the east end of Concourse C could be reactivated. It was not much, but certainly light years ahead of the joke in T2. Moving all intl ops back into C could potentially open up the three gates for WN.

I think we are both in agreement that any potential service from BA or any other transatlantic carrier would require some revenue guarantee to get off the ground, but I'm convinced the only way this has a snowball's chance in hell of happening is that there is some sort of perfect storm out there along the lines of revenue guarantees, onward demand from LHR and N/S flight stimulation. As previously stated, LHR slots are way too valuable otherwise for a marginal market like STL. For this reason the previous suggestions of a LGW or STN flight is a non-starter at this point.

But then there may be some big BA secret out there that no one knows about. But it is still fun to speculate nonetheless...

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2013-08-11 09:05:37 and read 8409 times.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 5):
, ahead of BWI, DEN, PIT, CLT, PDX, MCO, CVG,

The issue for STL is that it is shrinking population and economic wise (maybe not anymore but was for a while). DEN isn't just a metro area airport, its THE international airport for the front range. 5 million. And MCO is tourism. PDX and BWI are more comparable (BWI is somewhat of an alternate to IAD)

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 78):
LHR slots are way too valuable otherwise for a marginal market like STL.

I don't see STL as a high premium route. And with the costs associated with starting up a LHR route, I doubt it'll happen. LGW seems more likely. I will keep my fingers crossed for STL though!

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Lambertman
Posted 2013-08-11 09:39:09 and read 8362 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 79):
The issue for STL is that it is shrinking population and economic wise (maybe not anymore but was for a while). DEN isn't just a metro area airport, its THE international airport for the front range. 5 million. And MCO is tourism. PDX and BWI are more comparable (BWI is somewhat of an alternate to IAD)

The metro area isn't shrinking, only the city. Growth is limited, however.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 78):
I know all international arrivals at STL operate into T2 (E), which is certainly a dump but I wonder if the old arrivals facility under the east end of Concourse C could be reactivated. It was not much, but certainly light years ahead of the joke in T2. Moving all intl ops back into C could potentially open up the three gates for WN.

I never went through C customs. Any purple carpeting?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-08-11 12:53:40 and read 8204 times.

What is the St. Louis fascination with LHR if the flight were to Paris few would care if to went to Orly instead of CDG.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-08-11 20:02:39 and read 7938 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 80):
Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 78):
I know all international arrivals at STL operate into T2 (E), which is certainly a dump but I wonder if the old arrivals facility under the east end of Concourse C could be reactivated. It was not much, but certainly light years ahead of the joke in T2. Moving all intl ops back into C could potentially open up the three gates for WN.

I never went through C customs. Any purple carpeting?

Not that I recall, although the last time I was thru there was in 2000 after a LGW-STL flight on TW so the memory is a bit fuzzy. Not a very large setup, with several Immigration counters and two small baggage claim belts IIRC. But I certainly think it would fit the bill for anything BA could have in mind.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 81):
What is the St. Louis fascination with LHR if the flight were to Paris few would care if to went to Orly instead of CDG.

The fascination is not with LHR, but any onward traffic would need the Heathrow connection as would CDG over ORY, etc. LGW or STN could not survive on O&D alone, no way..

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: KD5MDK
Posted 2013-08-11 23:00:26 and read 7751 times.

I think STL-ORD-LHR is a lot more attractive to many fliers than STL-STN would be.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BMI727
Posted 2013-08-11 23:10:10 and read 7739 times.

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 83):
I think STL-ORD-LHR is a lot more attractive to many fliers than STL-STN would be.

I tend to agree. Anything that isn't to LHR is pretty much a nonstarter.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: bastar1
Posted 2013-08-12 14:30:46 and read 7376 times.

There will be a new destination in the US. Probably daily and certainly year-round it will most likely be announced on the 3rd Sept. Oh, and it's definitely not STL.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-08-12 14:37:28 and read 7350 times.

Quoting bastar1 (Reply 85):
There will be a new destination in the US. Probably daily and certainly year-round it will most likely be announced on the 3rd Sept. Oh, and it's definitely not STL.

PDX? That's my first guess.

MSP or SLC would be the next guesses.

SJC is a real dark horse, but given NH's apparent success in splitting the Bay Area market among SFO and SJC, maybe BA will give it a go too.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: ANA787
Posted 2013-08-12 16:29:55 and read 7223 times.

Quoting bastar1 (Reply 85):
There will be a new destination in the US. Probably daily and certainly year-round it will most likely be announced on the 3rd Sept. Oh, and it's definitely not STL.

My guesses:

1. PDX
2. HNL
3. SLC
4. AUS

These cities currently do not have nonstops to the UK.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Lambertman
Posted 2013-08-12 18:49:54 and read 7097 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 86):
PDX? That's my first guess.

MSP or SLC would be the next guesses.

SJC is a real dark horse, but given NH's apparent success in splitting the Bay Area market among SFO and SJC, maybe BA will give it a go too.

Portland would be a shocker. I think we saw with Lufthansa that two transatlantic flights don't work in the market.

Perhaps Minneapolis, but I'd be even more shocked if it actually happens as the poster suggests. These are about 1 in 10, in my experience.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-08-13 14:50:11 and read 6720 times.

Quoting bastar1 (Reply 85):
There will be a new destination in the US. Probably daily and certainly year-round it will most likely be announced on the 3rd Sept. Oh, and it's definitely not STL.

OK, I'll bite..

My extremely uneducated guess tells me one of the two:

DTW
CLT

I know DTW is not a "new" market just the resumption of a previous service. And I'm thinking CLT because AA may want to deploy assets elsewhere and turn this over to BA. Again just a guess with no substantiated fact

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: THEFLLFLYER
Posted 2013-08-13 14:54:53 and read 6680 times.

Quoting bastar1 (Reply 85):
There will be a new destination in the US. Probably daily and certainly year-round it will most likely be announced on the 3rd Sept. Oh, and it's definitely not STL.

What about FLL-LGW?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-08-13 15:08:46 and read 6660 times.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 89):
My extremely uneducated guess tells me one of the two:

DTW
CLT

I thought BA served CLT, but I don't see that now. Looks like they've previously served both DTW and CLT.

How about BDL or CLE? I'm betting it won't be MEM.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-08-13 16:23:42 and read 6609 times.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 89):
DTW
CLT

DTW is not going to have more flights to LHR than they already have. BA could have kept their flight going but they wanted a direct flight from IAH. Bermuda II ending removed the reason that BA had to fly through DTW.

CLT is well served by US flying to LHR as well RDU has a flight on AA.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-08-13 16:42:41 and read 6583 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 92):
DTW is not going to have more flights to LHR than they already have. BA could have kept their flight going but they wanted a direct flight from IAH. Bermuda II ending removed the reason that BA had to fly through DTW.

True but OTOH one of BA's problems in DTW was too much airplane, something the AA 757 may be able to rectify. DTW has a pretty decent (and pretty high-yielding) international O&D market.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: flyguy89
Posted 2013-08-13 19:28:48 and read 6452 times.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 93):
True but OTOH one of BA's problems in DTW was too much airplane, something the AA 757 may be able to rectify.

You're right, but how long now have we been waiting for AA to begin those elusive 757 flights to LHR?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BHMNONREV
Posted 2013-08-14 02:04:56 and read 6333 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 92):
Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 89):
DTW
CLT

DTW is not going to have more flights to LHR than they already have. BA could have kept their flight going but they wanted a direct flight from IAH. Bermuda II ending removed the reason that BA had to fly through DTW.

CLT is well served by US flying to LHR as well RDU has a flight on AA.

Hence my comment on a combined AA/US giving this up to BA. But with the DOJ decision this could very well be moot. And RDU is a totally different market than CLT, so I don't understand the parallel there.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: thegreatRDU
Posted 2013-08-14 06:38:35 and read 6227 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 77):
I always love these posts. They accomplish nothing and you lose a significant amount of credibility around here. Just stick to the RDU threads desperately hoping for New Orleans flights.....

Are you mad?

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: VV701
Posted 2013-08-14 07:20:18 and read 6145 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 91):
I thought BA served CLT, but I don't see that now.

It's quite a long time ago now. Used to operate LGW-CLT-LGW (BA2007/06). I think that the flight was suspended back in 2001 or '02.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-08-14 11:26:12 and read 6025 times.

Quoting bastar1 (Reply 85):
There will be a new destination in the US. Probably daily and certainly year-round it will most likely be announced on the 3rd Sept. Oh, and it's definitely not STL.

So BA will have a new US destination or will AA fly it?


I could definitely see the business communities in SLC and PDX stepping up the plate to financially make it easier. DL has already said that they want to fly SLC-LHR so im not sure BA would step in over a hub carrier.

Delta has said they want a second DTW and SLC so maybe BA wants to step in ahead in either city?

I really have no idea on this one, maybe even HNL but they wouldn't run that daily.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: BMI727
Posted 2013-08-14 15:24:25 and read 5821 times.

Quoting thegreatRDU (Reply 96):
Are you mad?

The problem is that, unless something major changes, you're completely right.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: tymnbalewne
Posted 2013-08-15 14:35:46 and read 5466 times.

AUS is being talked about within the corridors of Waterside.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: greenair727
Posted 2013-08-16 09:04:19 and read 5147 times.

Quote:
Yep - STL is the 19th largest MSA in the country, ahead of BWI, DEN, PIT, CLT, PDX, MCO, CVG, and CLE to name a few. I'm sure a 6x/week 767 or 777 (or 787) for BA could probably make it work.

CLE is bigger than STL; Metro CLE is at least 3.5M people; St. Louis is around 2.9. (source: US Census)

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Lambertman
Posted 2013-08-16 14:04:25 and read 4937 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 101):

CLE is bigger than STL; Metro CLE is at least 3.5M people; St. Louis is around 2.9. (source: US Census)

If you are including Akron, yes, its slightly larger than St. Louis in terms of population. If I remember correctly, St. Louis has slightly higher total retail sales figures, a fairly accurate measure of economic activity, even when Akron and Cleveland are combined.

When combined with Akron, Cleveland and St. Louis are very similar markets. You can argue the merits of both either way.

Quoting thegreatRDU (Reply 96):
Quoting Lambertman (Reply 77):
I always love these posts. They accomplish nothing and you lose a significant amount of credibility around here. Just stick to the RDU threads desperately hoping for New Orleans flights.....

Are you mad?

No, I'm pointing out that you made a post that contributes nothing and how silly it looks.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-08-16 14:15:16 and read 4915 times.

Could AUS really support LHR service? I have been there many times, cool place but i just can

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 102):
If you are including Akron, yes, its slightly larger than St. Louis in terms of population. If I remember correctly, St. Louis has slightly higher total retail sales figures, a fairly accurate measure of economic activity, even when Akron and Cleveland are combined.

When combined with Akron, Cleveland and St. Louis are very similar markets. You can argue the merits of both either way.

CLE has a hub with feed for United. St Louis does not have feed. Huge difference.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: MasseyBrown
Posted 2013-08-17 08:26:37 and read 4620 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 102):
If you are including Akron, yes, its slightly larger than St. Louis in terms of population. If I remember correctly, St. Louis has slightly higher total retail sales figures, a fairly accurate measure of economic activity, even when Akron and Cleveland are combined.

When combined with Akron, Cleveland and St. Louis are very similar markets. You can argue the merits of both either way.

CLE vs. STL. Depending on the measure used, either one could be called bigger. Can we agree they're very comparable with similar characteristics? IMO, either one could support at least one TATL flight by a *motivated* airline.

In CLE's case, UA lacks motivation. In STL's case no one is motivated, except maybe WN - assuming they eventually get the right plane for the job in about 5 years. (My guess is WN is pushing Boeing hard to make the 737-Max a TATL plane.)

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: dtwlax
Posted 2013-08-17 10:05:07 and read 4544 times.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 5):
I'm sure a 6x/week 767 or 777 (or 787) for BA could probably make it work.

You may be sure but BA is not. And I think BA is more knowledgeable than you in this matter.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 22):
PIT no TATL service;

I think PIT has a TATL service on DL to CDG.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 89):
And I'm thinking CLT because AA may want to deploy assets elsewhere and turn this over to BA. Again just a guess with no substantiated fact

AA can do it only if the merger goes through.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 92):
DTW is not going to have more flights to LHR than they already have. BA could have kept their flight going but they wanted a direct flight from IAH. Bermuda II ending removed the reason that BA had to fly through DTW.

DL wants to start a second flight to LHR. So DTW may eventually get another LHR flight. I think DTW can support 2 flights to LHR. Maybe BA can jump in before DL.
What is the Bermuda II? Not familiar with that.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Cubsrule
Posted 2013-08-17 11:27:29 and read 4457 times.

Quoting dtwlax (Reply 105):
What is the Bermuda II? Not familiar with that.

The old US-UK bilateral, which limited Heathrow flights to certain gateways and carriers. Houston was not one, so BA 294/295 LHR-IAH (which had to go to Heathrow for oil connections) stopped in various places over the years, including ORD and DTW.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-08-29 11:18:16 and read 3545 times.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 104):
CLE vs. STL. Depending on the measure used, either one could be called bigger

With the hub to feed it, CLE is certainly more realistic and would be easier to fill the seats. CLE is also in 757 range and STL is not.

STL seems like a true stretch for a LHR flight in 2014 IMHO.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: Boeing747_600
Posted 2013-08-29 11:31:08 and read 3465 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 52):
STL - total daily average of O&D pax to/from London - 78

This should be the clincher for the non-viability of the route. However if one still want to make a case to the contrary, then one has to get the total of the O&D numbers from STL to all cities in Europe that are NOT currently served by a one-stop service via a major US hub. If this number is over 200 / 250 , then I can see the case for a 787 / 777 route.

However I suspect that the number would actually be very small - 20 or 30 at most.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2013-08-29 11:38:59 and read 3440 times.

BA served CLT from 1994 to October 2002. Flight was originally a 763 flying to LGW. Around 1998 they shifted the route to a 777 and it went from a 777 to a 767 back to a 777 a number of times. After 9/11, the LGW nonstop was eliminated and the flight became CLT-BWI-LHR on a 763 until it was discontinued.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 92):
RDU has a flight on AA.

So? RDU and CLT aren't right next to each other. There 2.5 hours apart.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-08-29 12:17:20 and read 3313 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 92):
CLT is well served by US flying to LHR as well RDU has a flight on AA.

AA has had the RDU to London flight for years since its hub closed there. It is supported by a contract from Drug firm in the area. Whatever happens with an AA/US merger or not should have no effect on the RDU flight.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: brilondon
Posted 2013-08-30 10:19:49 and read 2837 times.

Quoting Lambertman (Reply 102):
If you are including Akron, yes, its slightly larger than St. Louis in terms of population. If I remember correctly, St. Louis has slightly higher total retail sales figures, a fairly accurate measure of economic activity, even when Akron and Cleveland are combined.

I don't see the correlation between retail sales and the demand for air travel.

If STL were viable do you think that AA would start up the flight or just feed DFW or PHX. This is assuming that the merger goes through.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 109):
So? RDU and CLT aren't right next to each other. There 2.5 hours apart.

But are the flights both full and if so then the flights will continue.

Topic: RE: BA STL-LHR In 2014?
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2013-08-30 10:30:08 and read 2803 times.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 111):
But are the flights both full and if so then the flights will continue.

But I don't understand why you brought in RDU when we were talking about CLT. CLT and RDU are vastly different cities. What happens at CLT doesn't really effect what happens at RDU, and vice versa. You are comparing apples to oranges. It's like YYC to YIA.


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