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Topic: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: enilria
Posted 2013-09-09 12:48:35 and read 6574 times.

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operates less than daily it will become affected by the unqual number of days in each month. For example, if a flight runs on Tuesdays only and a month has 5 Tuesdays it will show 5/31=.16=0.2 (if 31 days), but 4/31=.129=.1 if the month has 4 Tuesdays.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3E BRL-ORD OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7 JAN 0>1.7
3E BRL-STL OCT 0>1.9 NOV 0>1.9 DEC 0>1.8 JAN 0>1.9
3E DEC-ORD OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
3E DEC-STL OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
3E JBR-STL OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3

7H ANC-CDV NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.4

AA DFW-GIG DEC 0.4>0.6 JAN 0.4>0.9 FEB 0.4>0.6
AA DFW-LBB MAR 9>6 APR 9>6 MAY 9>6
AA DFW-MEX MAR 6>5 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
AA DFW-MKE MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4

AM ORD-MTY DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.2

AS ANC-DUT DEC 3>4 JAN 4>7
AS HNL-OAK NOV 0.9>0.6
AS HNL-SJC NOV 1.0>0.7
AS ORD-PVR FEB 0>0.1
AS PDX-ONT FEB 3>2
AS SAN-SJD JAN 1.9>1.7 FEB 2>1.7
AS SEA-LAS JAN 8>7
AS SEA-ONT FEB 3>2
AS SEA-SAN JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7

AV MIA-CLO OCT 1.0>0.9

AX PIT-STL OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0

*BA AUS-LHR MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>1.0
BA EWR-ORY NOV 1.6>1.3 JAN 1.6>1.1 FEB 1.6>1.1 MAR 1.6>1.4
BA SEA-LHR APR 1.4>1.5 MAY 1.4>1.6

CA LAX-PEK NOV 2>1.9

CI LAX-TPE NOV 2>1.8

CM LAS-PTY JAN 1.5>1.7 FEB 1.6>1.7 MAR 1.6>1.7 APR 1.6>1.7 MAY 1.6>1.7

*DL ATL-BJX DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
DL ATL-GCM APR 0.7>1.0 MAY 0.7>1.0
DL ATL-NAS APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
DL ATL-PLS APR 0.7>1.1 MAY 0.7>1.2
DL ATL-SJD APR 0.8>1.0 MAY 0.9>1.0
DL ATL-SJO MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3
DL ATL-SJU APR 4>6 MAY 4>6
DL ATL-SKB APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.2>0
DL BDL-CUN APR 0>0.1
DL BDL-RDU DEC 0.7>0.5
DL CVG-SFO DEC 0.7>0.5
DL DTW-CUN MAY 0.3>1.2
extended season?
*DL DTW-GCM APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2
*DL DTW-MBJ APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2
*DL DTW-NAS APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2
*DL DTW-PUJ APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2
*DL DTW-SJU APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2

*DL HRL-MSP JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
*DL JFK-SJO APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2
*DL LAX-BJX DEC 0>0.9 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
*DL MSP-CUN MAY 0>0.2
*DL MSP-GCM APR 0>0.1
*DL MSP-LIR APR 0>0.1
*DL MSP-MBJ APR 0>0.1
DL MSP-PHX JAN 5>6
*DL MSP-PUJ FEB 0.1>0.6 MAR 0.2>1.0 APR 0>0.1
*DL MSP-PVR APR 0>0.1
DL MSP-RST MAY 4>5
*DL MSP-SJU APR 0>0.1
DL MSP-TPA JAN 3>4 APR 2>3
*DL MSP-ZIH APR 0>0.1

DY FLL-ARN APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3
DY FLL-CPH MAR 0.3>0.4 APR 0>0.4 MAY 0>0.4
DY FLL-OSL APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3
DY JFK-CPH MAR 0>0.2 APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.5
DY JFK-OSL APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>0.6
DY LAX-ARN APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.4
DY LAX-CPH MAR 0>0.2 APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.5
DY OAK-ARN MAY 0>0.3

FJ LAX-NAN NOV 0.8>0.7

FL ATL-CAK APR 0.6>0.4
FL ATL-FLL MAR 4>3 APR 0.6>0.4
FL BWI-FLL MAR 5>1.5 APR 1.0>0.2

G7 LGA-STL OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.8 DEC 0>0.9 JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>0.8

JQ HNL-MEL DEC 0.3>0.4 JAN 0.3>0.5

KE HNL-ICN OCT 1.7>1.5 NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.7 JAN 2>1.7 FEB 2>1.7 MAR 2>1.1

KS AKN-ANC NOV 1.0>1.7 FEB 1.0>1.7 MAR 1.0>1.7
KS AKN-DLG NOV 0.7>0 DEC 0.7>0.1 JAN 0.7>0.3 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.7>0

MU SFO-PVG APR 0.7>1.0 MAY 0.7>1.0

PK JFK-LHE OCT 0.5>0.3 NOV 0.4>0.3 DEC 0.4>0.3 JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.5>0.3

*TA EWR-SAL NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0

UA CLE-BUF JAN 3>1.6
UA CLE-IND JAN 5>4
UA CLE-MCI JAN 4>3
*UA CLE-MIA DEC 0.4>0.1 JAN 1.0>0.0 FEB 1.0>0.6
UA IAH-ABQ JAN 5>4
UA IAH-EWR NOV 11>12
UA IAH-GSP JAN 2.0>1.2
UA IAH-LFT JAN 9>8
UA IAH-LIT JAN 6>5
UA IAH-OMA JAN 5>6 FEB 5>6 MAR 5>6
UA IAH-SAT JAN 11>10
*UA ORD-ELM FEB 0>1.1 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
*UA ORD-FOE JAN 0>1.6 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
UA ORD-IAH JAN 12>13 FEB 12>13 MAR 12>13
*UA ORD-SCE JAN 0>1.6 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
*UA SFO-IND JAN 0>0.8 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0

US CLT-HHH DEC 8>6
US CLT-MAD APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0.3
US CLT-MYR DEC 9>8
US CLT-SAV DEC 10>9
US PHL-BGR DEC 5>4
US PHL-MYR DEC 1.7>1.0
US PHL-PHF DEC 6>5
US PHL-SCE DEC 7>6
US PHX-PVR DEC 4>3

VS BOS-LHR FEB 1.0>0.9
VS EWR-LHR NOV 2>1.9
VS IAD-LHR FEB 1.0>0.9

WN ATL-CAK MAR 0>0.8
WN BWI-FLL MAR 6>9 APR 0.9>1.7

YV HNL-LIH OCT 6>4
YV HNL-OGG OCT 7>5

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: mhkansan
Posted 2013-09-09 12:54:40 and read 6515 times.

There are also a lot of weird capacity movements around this new AA schedule. 777s on DFW-LAX and a 763 up gauge on the successful DFW-LIM flight for the winter.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2013-09-09 12:59:28 and read 6462 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WN BWI-FLL MAR 6>9 APR 0.9>1.7

Doesn't make sense. This is one of WN's bread-and-butter routes.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: RL757PVD
Posted 2013-09-09 13:03:10 and read 6407 times.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 2):
Doesn't make sense. This is one of WN's bread-and-butter routes.

The WN sched is only open for a portion of April so far, hence the 1.7

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2013-09-09 13:37:35 and read 6084 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL HRL-MSP JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

Did I miss this announcement? This is a completely new market for DL.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-09-09 13:45:52 and read 5993 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
extended season?

My guess is that the extended season is primarily due to where Easter is on the calendar in 2014.
Easter is rather late this year, on April 20, 2014. Last year in was March 31.
While college spring breaks are generally the same week every year, there are some public schools that tie the spring break to where Easter falls on the calendar. Many people/families take time off around the holidays and make travel plans around the holiday.

The May adds are a little more puzzling since that is usually past the traditional end of Spring break.

Resorts and the travel industry generally benefit more when Easter is later in April. It spreads out peak demand over a longer period of time, and extends spring break. Ski resorts in particular like when Easter is later, since for many destination skiers they assume ski season is over once Easter passes. In reality, most of the big resorts in the Western US close due to a lack of demand instead of a lack of snow.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: usflyer msp
Posted 2013-09-09 13:47:53 and read 5978 times.

SY must have somehow royally pissed off DL with these MSP additions....DL is out for SY blood.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-09-09 13:50:30 and read 5929 times.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 6):
SY must have somehow royally pissed off DL with these MSP additions....DL is out for SY blood.

Those are not truly net-new flights, but an extension/addition year-over-year comparison where last year DL did not operate those flights in the month of April or May.

Again, see my comment above likely in part due to where Easter falls on the calendar in 2014.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: THEFLLFLYER
Posted 2013-09-09 13:51:34 and read 5929 times.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 6):

SY must have somehow royally pissed off DL with these MSP additions....DL is out for SY blood.

Yes, this goes up directly against SY MSP-HRL

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: greenair727
Posted 2013-09-09 13:58:57 and read 5856 times.

Quote:
UA CLE-MIA DEC 0.4>0.1 JAN 1.0>0.0 FEB 1.0>0.6

So there is no service at all in January? To drop a city for just one month is a strange thing, isn't it?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: kgaiflyer
Posted 2013-09-09 14:07:52 and read 5765 times.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 9):
So there is no service at all in January? To drop a city for just one month is a strange thing, isn't it?

From Cleveland, UA has been flying 757s into FLL and 145s into MIA.

I assume there's no Miami market from CLE.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: MSPNWA
Posted 2013-09-09 14:28:09 and read 5606 times.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 6):
SY must have somehow royally pissed off DL with these MSP additions....DL is out for SY blood.

Ha, that's kinda what I thought. The major one of course being HRL. Opening a new market to compete against SY? We have a fight here.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: point2point
Posted 2013-09-09 14:36:08 and read 5536 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US CLT-MAD APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0.3

Hmmmmmm?

Is CLT-MAD not performing to US expectations? And with the probable eventual AA-US merger, I would think some likelihood of a CLT-MAD flight would exist?

 

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: AS737MAX
Posted 2013-09-09 14:38:05 and read 5519 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

AS ANC-DUT DEC 3>4 JAN 4>7

There's the start of 734 shift to Q400 flying in alaska
DUT is Dutch Harbor

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: BoeingGuy
Posted 2013-09-09 14:49:27 and read 5452 times.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 13):
AS ANC-DUT DEC 3>4 JAN 4>7

There's the start of 734 shift to Q400 flying in alaska
DUT is Dutch Harbor

DUT has been flown by a contract carrier's Dash8s for several years now. The introduction of QX Q400s should have nothing to do with it.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: awacsooner
Posted 2013-09-09 14:59:59 and read 5391 times.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
Ha, that's kinda what I thought. The major one of course being HRL. Opening a new market to compete against SY? We have a fight here.

DL just dusted off the old NW "how to defend your fortress hub at MSP" playbook.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: AVLAirlineFreq
Posted 2013-09-09 15:06:09 and read 5353 times.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 4):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL HRL-MSP JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

Did I miss this announcement? This is a completely new market for DL.
Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
Ha, that's kinda what I thought. The major one of course being HRL. Opening a new market to compete against SY? We have a fight here.

And in case anyone is wondering, it's being flown on an A320.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: AS737MAX
Posted 2013-09-09 15:09:42 and read 5344 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):

Ok thanks

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: Mah4546
Posted 2013-09-09 15:14:21 and read 5302 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 12):

Is CLT-MAD not performing to US expectations? And with the probable eventual AA-US merger, I would think some likelihood of a CLT-MAD flight would exist?

The merger isn't probable, it's highly unlikely. And, knowing this, US has shortened the season back. I believe when the merger was looking likely, US moved forward the restart date to April.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: GSPSPOT
Posted 2013-09-09 15:17:10 and read 5287 times.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 4):
Did I miss this announcement? This is a completely new market for DL.

But.... From MSP to Harlingen, TX?? Maybe that area is more of a beach mecca than I thought (apart of course from the spring breakers).

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: USAirALB
Posted 2013-09-09 15:55:50 and read 5105 times.

Quoting point2point (Reply 12):

Hmmmmmm?

Is CLT-MAD not performing to US expectations? And with the probable eventual AA-US merger, I would think some likelihood of a CLT-MAD flight would exist?

When the merger was first announced, US moved the start date to the end of March. The route was also supposed to be operated by an A330. With the merger in question, US moved the start date back a little and swapped the A330 with a B767 again.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: yellowtail
Posted 2013-09-09 16:54:58 and read 4883 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BA SEA-LHR APR 1.4>1.5 MAY 1.4>1.6

There is going to be a lot of SEA-LHR capacity next year....somebody is going to suffer.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 5):
The May adds are a little more puzzling since that is usually past the traditional end of Spring break.

Not really, what we in the Caribbean and Central America have seen is that the last 2 Mays have been relatively strong....we no loger refer to it as a shoulder season....more as a bridge season. Lots of student groups traveling right after they get out of exams, ditto for parents and kids as it still not hurricane season.

Actually in BZE our high season runs Nov 1 - Aug 15 now.....that was not true 5 years ago....it was distincly Nov-Apr and June-July.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: TUSAA
Posted 2013-09-09 17:00:13 and read 4861 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS ORD-PVR FEB 0>0.1

Didn't realize AS was doing ORD-Mexico flights, or is this something new?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: MtnWest1979
Posted 2013-09-09 17:00:56 and read 4860 times.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
DUT has been flown by a contract carrier's Dash8s for several years now. The introduction of QX Q400s should have nothing to do with it.

Correction. ANC-DUT is operated by PenAir using Saab 340s, and Metros prior to that.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: CIDFlyer
Posted 2013-09-09 18:24:28 and read 4555 times.

article on DL's MSP-HRL flight. Very interesting addition indeed!

http://www.themonitor.com/news/local...2-17e9-11e3-9bae-001a4bcf6878.html

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-09-09 18:45:59 and read 4681 times.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL MSP-PHX JAN 5>6

What will this be op'd by? Another 752? Or is this just taking away the capacity of the 753 flights we used to have?

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: treebeard787
Posted 2013-09-09 18:54:43 and read 4666 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
What will this be op'd by? Another 752? Or is this just taking away the capacity of the 753 flights we used to have?

Delta.com shows two 753s operating DL2392 and DL2134. Two 752s on DL899 and DL1717. An A320 on DL999 and an MD90 on DL2292 for a total of 6x daily MSP-PHX flights.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: usflyer msp
Posted 2013-09-09 19:03:35 and read 4631 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
What will this be op'd by? Another 752? Or is this just taking away the capacity of the 753 flights we used to have?

More likely DL is trying to drive one of the weaker carriers like SY or NK off of the route. I think MSP-PHX will probably be a bloodbath this winter, my work colleague already bought her ticket for December and it was $188 RT (on US)....about $90 less than she usually pays.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: PSU.DTW.SCE
Posted 2013-09-09 19:40:52 and read 4428 times.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 21):
Not really, what we in the Caribbean and Central America have seen is that the last 2 Mays have been relatively strong....we no loger refer to it as a shoulder season....more as a bridge season. Lots of student groups traveling right after they get out of exams, ditto for parents and kids as it still not hurricane season.

True, and for the most part all of April and even early May still kind of "mud season" and still cool and wet in the Upper Midwest. It really doesn't start to get nice on a consistent basis until early/Mid May.

Topic: RE: OAG Changes 9/13/2013: AA/DL/UA/US
Username: PHX787
Posted 2013-09-09 19:49:26 and read 4362 times.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 27):
More likely DL is trying to drive one of the weaker carriers like SY or NK off of the route. I think MSP-PHX will probably be a bloodbath this winter, my work colleague already bought her ticket for December and it was $188 RT (on US)....about $90 less than she usually pays.

"bloodbath?" lol

Sounds good for the consumer.... How long has DL been trying to squeeze out SY for?

Quoting treebeard787 (Reply 26):
Delta.com shows two 753s operating DL2392 and DL2134. Two 752s on DL899 and DL1717. An A320 on DL999 and an MD90 on DL2292 for a total of 6x daily MSP-PHX flights.

Thanks buddy


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