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Topic: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: TWA772LR
Posted 2013-09-10 17:49:01 and read 4686 times.

With the AA/US merger in limbo right now, and US looking to grow, how about they gobble up F9? It would give them access to an area they are weak in (the midwest), they have fleet commonality (A319s and 320s), and would give them a great central US hub in DEN. The DoJ may not let it happen because US is currently in *A, but with the shift to Oneworld soon, the DoJ wouldn't have a Star Alliance near-monopoly at DEN on their hands, thus enabling a more balanced level of competition in DEN with 2 leagcys (US and UA) and their respective alliances, and one LCC (WN) slugging it out in DEN.

Hubs would be PHX, DEN, PHL, CLT. Not a bad geographic spread if you ask me.

Even though I am adding more to the "impossible merger speculations" arena, please don't flame me.  

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-09-10 17:59:53 and read 4649 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
Hubs would be PHX, DEN, PHL, CLT. Not a bad geographic spread if you ask me.

There's too much Mountain West overlap for a single airline to support hubs at both DEN and PHX. (I base that on passenger volumes in a thinly populated region, not speculation on DOJ recommendations.) One would likely get cut way back. How long did LAS coexist with the PHX hub once the US + HP merger was complete? Not long at all...

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: commavia
Posted 2013-09-10 18:13:49 and read 4560 times.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 1):
There's too much Mountain West overlap for a single airline to support hubs at both DEN and PHX.

There's not much overlap at all, because PHX has very little service to the Mountain West, because PHX is just too far south. Look at a US route map - PHX is simply not a Mountain West hub. US flies nonstop from PHX to a grand total of eight cities in the "Mountain West" (and that's being extremely generous with the definition of the region). AA literally has more flights, and more seats, to more cites, in the region from DFW (900 miles to the east of PHX) than US has from PHX.

All that being said, this idea would never work. F9 is not exactly a thriving enterprise at the moment, and they are by far the weakest player in a 3-man death match in DEN. There would be little strategic value to US wading into that mess. F9 appears to be trying to transform itself into hybrid ULCC-hub/spoke-point-to-point carrier of some kind. This merger would buy US relatively little from a network perspective beyond access to an actual, true Mountain West hub, but I don't think this alone would justify such a deal at all (since, as said, the Mountain West is by far the least important region, economically and demographically, in the U.S.).

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: maxholstemh1521
Posted 2013-09-10 18:18:06 and read 4530 times.

Other than more Airbusses, F9 reall doesn't bring much to the table to US. F9 seems to be heading down the ULCC path based on them serving ILG, and TTN.

[Edited 2013-09-10 18:18:37]

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: hoMsar
Posted 2013-09-10 18:20:32 and read 4507 times.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 1):
How long did LAS coexist with the PHX hub once the US + HP merger was complete? Not long at all...

True, but LAS and PHX coexisted for quite a while under HP alone. I think CMH was the real loser in that merger (unless it was already gone before the merger...I can't remember).

That said, I'm not sure what merging with F9 would get US beyond a bunch of A320s, which if US needed them, they could just go out and buy them on their own.

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-09-10 18:38:59 and read 4405 times.

Quoting hoMsar (Reply 4):
True, but LAS and PHX coexisted for quite a while under HP alone. I think CMH was the real loser in that merger (unless it was already gone before the merger...I can't remember).

CMH was gone long before US/HP.

LAS really was more of a redeye hub/O&D focus city than a true hub for HP. Once the redeyes ended with the US merger, LAS as a hub was toast. It is true that the two can coexist just fine in some networks - look at WN's huge ops at both airports. They are also further apart than IAD-EWR or DCA-LGA, so it's not as if they are across the street from one another, although the space in between is pretty sparsely populated.

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: ItalianFlyer
Posted 2013-09-10 18:58:53 and read 4324 times.

The only thing F9 brings to the table is aircraft lease commitments, employees and debt. IF (big IF) US were to stay in STAR then UA will not be amused with competition in DEN. IF they go to Oneworld (most likely) then DEN becomes an expensive redundancy with ORD, DFW (and to some extent, PHX) serving the same traffic flows. At the end of the day, F9 does not lift US's network to the 'critical mass' needed to compete with UA & DL. Plus I doubt they would pull down PHL for TTN or ILG lol   

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: usflyer msp
Posted 2013-09-10 19:09:43 and read 4267 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
how about they gobble up F9? It would give them access to an area they are weak in (the midwest),

How does F9 add access to the Midwest?

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: MIflyer12
Posted 2013-09-10 19:23:32 and read 4212 times.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 5):
It is true that the two can coexist just fine in some networks - look at WN's huge ops at both airports.

WN doesn't run LAS and PHX as connecting hubs the way US and F9 try to run PHX and DEN.

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: HPRamper
Posted 2013-09-10 21:23:18 and read 3924 times.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 8):
WN doesn't run LAS and PHX as connecting hubs the way US and F9 try to run PHX and DEN.

Could be why I said "some networks."

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: JoePatroni707
Posted 2013-09-11 04:36:10 and read 3589 times.

Its all irregardless if a possible US/F9....AA/US will win the DOJ case.

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: slcdeltarumd11
Posted 2013-09-11 15:16:21 and read 2490 times.

Personally i do think the AA/US merger will happen in the end. It really would not be fair to say we let everyone else merge and now were gonna stop you. They will need to give in some stuff to make the government happy but in the end i think they will find a solution. This will be the end of the mega mergers though. The government is really gonna make any mergers after this very hard for a long time.

No way would US want to merge with frontier. Republic is desperately seeking a buyer they would easily sell to US for very little, you gain very few assets buying frontier all the planes are leased and they have no real assets. Us would be much better off just flying solo.

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: Centre
Posted 2013-09-11 15:45:06 and read 2334 times.

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
please don't flame me.  

With such a thread, you are asking for it...And the guy to lead the pact is not on yet.
Good luck!

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: roswell41
Posted 2013-09-11 17:16:27 and read 1904 times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 11):
Personally i do think the AA/US merger will happen in the end. It really would not be fair to say we let everyone else merge and now were gonna stop you. They will need to give in some stuff to make the government happy but in the end i think they will find a solution. This will be the end of the mega mergers though. The government is really gonna make any mergers after this very hard for a long time.

With politics involved, fair doesn't factor into the equation. I give the AA/US merger a 50/50 chance of happening. Being the last of the 'mega mergers' does hurt the chances of this transaction going through. The government has seen that mergers reduce service and raise fares (duh!). The government wants to be seen as the 'white knight' who protects the consumer and if the corporate interests don't have the political clout, this deal will fail.

That being said, I don't think an F9/US merger is in the cards. What about a US/NK merger?

Topic: RE: If US/AA Falls Through, How About US/F9?
Username: hoMsar
Posted 2013-09-11 18:16:08 and read 1684 times.

Quoting roswell41 (Reply 13):
What about a US/NK merger?

That was a joke, right?

Just making sure.


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