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Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 10:38:07 and read 49580 times.

Lufthansa will split an order for about 50 wide-body aircraft between Airbus and Boeing, a purchase with a list value of at least $14 billion, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The twin-engine jets will be Boeing’s new 777-9X, which is due to fly by decade’s end, and Airbus’s A350-900, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t yet public. An announcement may come as soon as next week, the people said.

Story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ing-airbus-split-on-jet-order.html

[Edited 2013-09-13 10:39:41]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: FlyingAY
Posted 2013-09-13 10:46:24 and read 49530 times.

Was the 787 too small for LH? The 787-10 that was large enough maybe had too short range? What does this mean when it comes to the 747-8i fleet? Interesting order and congrats to all parties!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-09-13 10:49:29 and read 49427 times.

Great news for Boeing to have Luftnansa as the 777-9X launch customer. This time hopefully airlines will buy the plane since the 747-8 has been a dog.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: RWA380
Posted 2013-09-13 10:50:39 and read 49363 times.

Another carrier splits their A/C order between the two giant aircraft companies. It just goes to show, that each plane manufacturer does has something unique to bring to the table. It seems to be the trend lately, taking a bit of A & a bit of B.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ap305
Posted 2013-09-13 10:52:11 and read 49312 times.

After moaning about excessive aircraft range capability, LH is going to buy the 2 most capable aircraft in their respective classes. I always thought this order will split but for the a350-1000 and the 787-10.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: chiad
Posted 2013-09-13 11:06:05 and read 48979 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Lufthansa will split an order for about 50 wide-body aircraft between Airbus and Boeing

Great news!
I find it pleasing when a major order is split and both manufactures get rewarded for the sales efforts.
I am looking forward to the actual numbers involved.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: wingman
Posted 2013-09-13 11:06:56 and read 48987 times.

"Boeing jets will make up the majority of the order". If that's true then I will be stunned. I never thought I'd see the day come to be honest.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: holzmann
Posted 2013-09-13 11:15:16 and read 48828 times.

Wow. What breaking news!

Honored just to post in this thread  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sassiciai
Posted 2013-09-13 11:23:11 and read 48624 times.

Is this 100% credible and accurate?

Has that fat lady already sung? If so, what did she sing?   

Who would bet his house on this?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: iahmark
Posted 2013-09-13 11:25:29 and read 48574 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 6):
"Boeing jets will make up the majority of the order". If that's true then I will be stunned. I never thought I'd see the day come to be honest.

If this is true my best guess would be 30 for the 777X with the remaining 20 for the A350-1000.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: william
Posted 2013-09-13 11:27:59 and read 48512 times.

Seems like Luftftansa is whittling down the aircraft types. What present aircraft will this order replace?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-13 11:29:24 and read 48450 times.

I still am surprised that after commenting that the manufacturers are making their planes to suit the ME carriers; i.e. much more range than the European carriers need, LH ignores the plane that seems to fit their bill perfectly (the 7810) and buys the much longer ranged competitor from Airbus. But who said anyone had to be logical or consistent? And what is the advantage of the A359 over the 7810, except for more range?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-13 11:29:36 and read 48453 times.

If this is true (and there is reason to believe it is) it means there will be a tit for tat division of larger aircraft.

Below 300 seats Boeing 787, between 300-400 Aibus 350, between 400-500 Boeing 779 and then the A380 beyound 500. Amazing how they have divided the world of long-haul aviation  Wow! . It will be no longer boring 333 below 330 pax and 777 beyond until you hit the 380. An almost perfect division of the market, perhaps DOJ want to block the division  Wow! .

There will be severe fighting in every segment border and I am sure Airbus is starting to look at a -1100 

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Heavierthanair
Posted 2013-09-13 11:36:34 and read 48267 times.

G'day

If true I am surprised.

Then again LH always stated they do not want to rely on a single supplier.

They also have the dilemma with the 20 options for the 747-8. Selecting the 777-9 gives them a more capable aircraft and being the / a launch customer they must have gotten an excellent deal on those while resolving the issue with the 747-8 options.

The 350-900 being the given replacement for the 340-300 is no surprise.

So far so good. But the 50 aircraft order talked about will by no means cover all the replacement for the existing A330-300 / A340-300, 340-600 and B747-400 fleet. Having chosen the A 350 as being part of their fleet LH will have the option for any model of the series, so surely some of the A340-600 replacements will be A350-1000's while others will be replaced with 777-9's. Same at the upper end where some more B747-400's will be replaced with A380's.

Were they not going to order some more of those earlier this year? Maybe another part of the whole deal, we will see when it gets officially announced.  


Cheers

Peter

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ap305
Posted 2013-09-13 11:36:38 and read 48275 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 12):

There will be severe fighting in every segment border and I am sure Airbus is starting to look at a -1100

Why not a a360?. The technology is there- simply stick an enlarged a350 wing onto a new wider tube and get RR to go ahead with the RB3025 or whatever they were offering for the 777ng.

[Edited 2013-09-13 11:38:28]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Sooner787
Posted 2013-09-13 11:50:47 and read 47978 times.

Looking forward to seeing A359's at DFW in the future   

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-09-13 11:56:43 and read 47842 times.

I'm also a bit surprised by them taking the very long range choices.

Also interesting to note that this is a back-door announcement order for the 777-9, right?

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 13):
They also have the dilemma with the 20 options for the 747-8. Selecting the 777-9 gives them a more capable aircraft and being the / a launch customer they must have gotten an excellent deal on those while resolving the issue with the 747-8 options.

There really should be no issue with resolving options. After all, they are just options, which cost little or nothing to the customer to have.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 11:58:33 and read 47819 times.

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 1):
Was the 787 too small for LH? The 787-10 that was large enough maybe had too short range? What does this mean when it comes to the 747-8i fleet? Interesting order and congrats to all parties!

I too expected the 787-10 to be part of the deal. Perhaps the payload / range was just a bit too short for LH needs.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
Great news for Boeing to have Luftnansa as the 777-9X launch customer. This time hopefully airlines will buy the plane since the 747-8 has been a dog.

We don't know yet if Lufthansa will become the launch customer of the type. This will depend on when they will take first deliveries.

I think this honor will go to Emirates.

Quoting ap305 (Reply 4):
After moaning about excessive aircraft range capability, LH is going to buy the 2 most capable aircraft in their respective classes. I always thought this order will split but for the a350-1000 and the 787-10.

Ironic, isn't?

Quoting wingman (Reply 6):
"Boeing jets will make up the majority of the order". If that's true then I will be stunned. I never thought I'd see the day come to be honest.

Perhaps the majority of the order in terms of value (the 777-9 is more expensive).

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 11):
I still am surprised that after commenting that the manufacturers are making their planes to suit the ME carriers; i.e. much more range than the European carriers need, LH ignores the plane that seems to fit their bill perfectly (the 7810) and buys the much longer ranged competitor from Airbus. But who said anyone had to be logical or consistent? And what is the advantage of the A359 over the 7810, except for more range?

Yes I'm surprised too.

The A359 has more range thus can fly further at max payload. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that Lufthansa carries a lot of cargo in the belly of their airplanes. I don't know.

Quoting william (Reply 10):
Seems like Luftftansa is whittling down the aircraft types. What present aircraft will this order replace?

Both A340-300 and A340-600 will be replaced with this order.

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 13):
So far so good. But the 50 aircraft order talked about will by no means cover all the replacement for the existing A330-300 / A340-300, 340-600 and B747-400 fleet. Having chosen the A 350 as being part of their fleet LH will have the option for any model of the series, so surely some of the A340-600 replacements will be A350-1000's while others will be replaced with 777-9's. Same at the upper end where some more B747-400's will be replaced with A380's.

The last 20 744 aircraft can be replaced with the remainder 9 A380 and 10 748i aircraft on order.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-09-13 12:09:59 and read 47511 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Lufthansa will split an order for about 50 wide-body aircraft between Airbus and Boeing

It's also a split for the engine makers too - Rolls for the A350 and GE for the 777X.

The article mentions this order was previously said to be "winner-take-all" contest.

That also makes it harder to comprehend the split.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-09-13 12:16:37 and read 47160 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 18):
The article mentions this order was previously said to be "winner-take-all" contest.

The winner is Lufthansa. And they're taking it all!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 12:24:26 and read 46786 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 18):
It's also a split for the engine makers too - Rolls for the A350 and GE for the 777X.

Indeed.

The guys at Lufthansa Technik should get excited, doing maintenance on those folding wing tips.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 8):
Is this 100% credible and accurate?

We have to wait until next week, but such leaks by people "familiar with the matter" turns in 99% of the cases out to be true.

Quoting Prost (Reply 19):
The winner is Lufthansa. And they're taking it all!

  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-09-13 12:26:36 and read 46690 times.

I am stunned. I would love to know what kind of numbers Boeing is showing to LH for th 779. Not that I don't believe Boeing - it's just I guess the 779 has a more compelling business case than some members have presented on here. Either way , I love split orders so congrats to Boeing and Airbus.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-09-13 12:29:06 and read 46597 times.

Honestly, with the capabilities that the 777-9 is professed to have, it should be similar to flying a combi aircraft was 25 years ago.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2013-09-13 12:34:24 and read 46330 times.

If this means no more 748I orders than this is a black friday for aviation.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: lhrnue
Posted 2013-09-13 12:36:08 and read 46343 times.

Is LH already replacing the 747-8i with the 777-9X?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: A380900
Posted 2013-09-13 12:36:23 and read 48265 times.

Quoting Prost (Reply 19):
We have to wait until next week, but such leaks by people "familiar with the matter" turns in 99% of the cases out to be true.

It certainly feels that way. Now another question is the purpose of these leaks... Why do they feel the need to tell that to the press? Why not wait the official announcement? I'm not quite sure why we have these leaks so often.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Prost
Posted 2013-09-13 12:41:44 and read 47835 times.

Possibly strategic? Seeing as it was supposed to be "winner takes all" maybe this leak was released to see if either A or B can sharpen their pencils and do whatever is necessary to get the whole enchilada.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: FlyingGoat
Posted 2013-09-13 12:42:09 and read 48615 times.

Well, I'm surprised. I was expecting the 787-10 to be part of the order.

I'm looking forward to seeing the 777-9X and A359 in LH colors!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 12:42:13 and read 48800 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):
If this means no more 748I orders than this is a black friday for aviation.

Well, it's Friday the 13th    Boeing had a few 748i campaigns running, including LH, but it seems they go for the 777 instead.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SpaceshipDC10
Posted 2013-09-13 12:51:27 and read 48185 times.

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 24):
Is LH already replacing the 747-8i with the 777-9X?

Not just yet. Lufthansa Considers Early 747-400 Replacement (by KarelXWB Jun 3 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 12:53:10 and read 48150 times.

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 24):
Is LH already replacing the 747-8i with the 777-9X?

No no, certainly not. This order is for A340 replacement only.

Lufthansa future long-haul fleet will consist of the following aircraft:

> A330
> A359 (replacing A343)
> B779 (replacing A346)
> B748 (replacing B744)
> A388 (replacing B744)

[Edited 2013-09-13 12:53:53]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: AA777223
Posted 2013-09-13 12:53:11 and read 48065 times.

An LH 777. Now Jesus can return.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 13:04:00 and read 47684 times.

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 31):
An LH 777. Now Jesus can return.

But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH   

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Sooner787
Posted 2013-09-13 13:13:55 and read 47277 times.

As a sidenote, I wonder if the future AF1 jet will be either a B777-8 or B777-9?

As much as I love the 748's, The writing's on the wall for those birds.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: PanAm1971
Posted 2013-09-13 13:19:04 and read 46984 times.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 33):
As much as I love the 748's, The writing's on the wall for those birds.

Not quite yet. If we're still sitting here a year from now without any more orders for the 748i... then yes. We'll see.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ZEDZAG
Posted 2013-09-13 13:20:30 and read 46922 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

And EK...    

Hypothetically, if this order really happens, wouldnt there be too much of a gap between two planes?

[Edited 2013-09-13 13:26:32]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 13:21:06 and read 46956 times.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 33):
I wonder if the future AF1 jet will be either a B777-8 or B777-9?

Leeham has an article about this subject.

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2013...en-or-can-777-300er-become-af-one/

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: autothrust
Posted 2013-09-13 13:23:26 and read 46808 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

They should buy in terms of passenger comfort the other way, even more the 787 is so much beatiful then the ugly 777 and would look amazing in LH colors.

I think (at the moment)the only think what is important to LH is capacity.  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-09-13 13:32:56 and read 46393 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 11):
And what is the advantage of the A359 over the 7810, except for more range?

I think it is a pretty negative endorsement of the 787 program in general. LH are a very conservative airline and like things to be a certain way. To me this tells me that they are no happy with what they've seen of the 787 (either the plane or the program), and want nothing to do with it. Also they may get A359's a lot sooner than the 7810, if that's important to them.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 13:35:17 and read 46271 times.

Quoting autothrust (Reply 37):
I think (at the moment)the only think what is important to LH is capacity.

Well yes, of course. Lufthansa's now long-haul products (new J seats, Y+) will require more space, and the airline also wants room for growth.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Finn350
Posted 2013-09-13 13:36:29 and read 46283 times.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 33):
As much as I love the 748's, The writing's on the wall for those birds.

I agree. LH is the largest 748 operator yet they opt for a new 777-9X fleet instead of expanding their 748 fleet. It basically means there is no business case for 748 passenger version. It is an even higher barrier for an operator not having 748s in their fleet to order 748s.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: FlyingGoat
Posted 2013-09-13 13:36:45 and read 46190 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

lol, indeed. However, if your previous post is correct, and this is just a A340 replacement order, than perhaps there is still an eventual chance for a 787-9 or -10 order to replace the A330.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: kaitak744
Posted 2013-09-13 13:38:27 and read 46203 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 30):
> A330
> A359 (replacing A343)
> B779 (replacing A346)
> B748 (replacing B744)
> A388 (replacing B744)

The 777-9X is about the same passenger capacity as the 747-400. I would be a significant upguage over the A340-600.
In general, their fleet is going for an overall upguage.

This also spells the end of any more LH 747-8is.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-09-13 13:38:46 and read 46137 times.

So, the 777s are for Lufthansa themselves and not Swiss?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LH506
Posted 2013-09-13 13:46:53 and read 45932 times.

Quoting FlyingGoat (Reply 41):
lol, indeed. However, if your previous post is correct, and this is just a A340 replacement order, than perhaps there is still an eventual chance for a 787-9 or -10 order to replace the A330.



No way. I expect the order to be 30+30 779X and 20+40 359. This is to replace around 20 343, 12 747 and the first trench of the 346.

Follow up order will be to replace 19 (18+1) 333 with the 359 and 20 748I with the 779X. Put in some more 388s and by 2025 the fleet will look like this

60 359
60 7779X
25 388

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-09-13 13:48:19 and read 45792 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 43):
So, the 777s are for Lufthansa themselves and not Swiss?

there is an order for 6 777-300ERfor SWISS placed about 6 months ago.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 13:51:59 and read 45733 times.

Quoting FlyingGoat (Reply 41):
than perhaps there is still an eventual chance for a 787-9 or -10 order to replace the A330.

Perhaps, but it might take a while because many of those A330s are quite new and are here to stay for 20 years.

More likely Lufthansa Group will order 787s for SN or OS first.

Quoting kaitak744 (Reply 42):
The 777-9X is about the same passenger capacity as the 747-400. I would be a significant upguage over the A340-600.
In general, their fleet is going for an overall upguage.

In the previous thread, people calculated 330 to 350 seats in a new, updated LH cabin configuration inside the 777-9. That's an increase of 24 to 44 seats over the A346, which sounds fair if you're looking at growth.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-09-13 13:53:16 and read 45594 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 45):
Quoting rj777 (Reply 43):
So, the 777s are for Lufthansa themselves and not Swiss?

there is an order for 6 777-300ERfor SWISS placed about 6 months ago.

Actually I was referring to the just announced 779 order.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 13:54:22 and read 45523 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 47):
Actually I was referring to the just announced 779 order.

This order is indeed not for Swiss, but for Lufthansa themselves.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SpaceshipDC10
Posted 2013-09-13 13:56:44 and read 45491 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 43):
So, the 777s are for Lufthansa themselves and not Swiss?
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 45):
there is an order for 6 777-300ERfor SWISS placed about 6 months ago.

There's indeed that order for Swiss, but if I recall correctly, they are an interim measure. Since LH's order talked about in the present thread is for the replacement of the A340 fleet, we'll probably know more with the upcoming official announcement.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-09-13 13:59:12 and read 45551 times.

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 24):
Is LH already replacing the 747-8i with the 777-9X?

Don't be surprised to see the 748s gone by the early 2020s. Lufthansa almost certainly expected a better uptake of the 748 than has occurred, and now they (along with KE) are facing the prospect of holding a fleet that will suffer from poor residual values, and for which they will have to shoulder nearly the entire burden of worldwide maintenance infrastructure as virtually all other 747 operators are committed to retiring their operating fleets by ~2020.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: seabosdca
Posted 2013-09-13 14:00:19 and read 45465 times.

This is a painful loss for both the 787-10 and the A350-1000, and quite unexpected.

I wonder if LH has some new routes up its sleeve that would explain the choice of frames with more payload-range?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2013-09-13 14:04:31 and read 44878 times.

It was the obvious choice to everyone except those that think all airlines value commonality over mission specific efficiency.

LH needed to replace the 747s and A346s, and the A343s and A330s. The only logical solutions to do this with the most efficient aircraft possible were the A359 and 779.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 14:09:31 and read 44560 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 50):
Don't be surprised to see the 748s gone by the early 2020s. Lufthansa almost certainly expected a better uptake of the 748 than has occurred, and now they (along with KE) are facing the prospect of holding a fleet that will suffer from poor residual values, and for which they will have to shoulder nearly the entire burden of worldwide maintenance infrastructure as virtually all other 747 operators are committed to retiring their operating fleets by ~2020.

Residual values should not be a problem because Lufthansa usually keeps their aircraft until they can serve as coke cans. Maintenance should also not be a big problem with Lufthansa Technik in their backyard, although spare parts will become scarce.

[Edited 2013-09-13 14:11:41]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: na
Posted 2013-09-13 14:14:06 and read 44435 times.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):
If this means no more 748I orders than this is a black friday for aviation.

Indeed.

I hope the A340 replacement order is for A350s and 787s only. It would be a sad day for me if LH orders the 777X.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 14:21:59 and read 44125 times.

Quoting iahmark (Reply 9):
If this is true my best guess would be 30 for the 777X with the remaining 20 for the A350-1000.

The A350 order is for the -900 only..

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: gigneil
Posted 2013-09-13 14:23:42 and read 44062 times.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 33):
As a sidenote, I wonder if the future AF1 jet will be either a B777-8 or B777-9?

There is no reason the last few planes off the line can't be stored for use as AF1 - especially if they're empty and not outfitted, which they will have to be for the government anyway.

Quoting na (Reply 54):
I hope the A340 replacement order is for A350s and 787s only. It would be a sad day for me if LH orders the 777X.

But they ordered it. This thread is about the actual order. They placed an order for the 777-9X. They did not order any 787s.

NS

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-13 14:34:11 and read 43616 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 18):

The article mentions this order was previously said to be "winner-take-all" contest.

There seems to be a history of "winner take all" orders producing two winners. UA, anyone?

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
The guys at Lufthansa Technik should get excited, doing maintenance on those folding wing tips.

The maintenance for the folding wingtips should be very simple; less than for any control surface.

Quoting FlyingGoat (Reply 27):
Well, I'm surprised. I was expecting the 787-10 to be part of the order.

There was a rumor circulating a while ago here that LH had said that they were not interested in the 7810.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

They have not yet replaced their A330's. The logical choice would be the 787; the A359 is much bigger and longer range, and I think the A358 will suffer the same fate as the 783.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 38):
I think it is a pretty negative endorsement of the 787 program in general. LH are a very conservative airline and like things to be a certain way. To me this tells me that they are no happy with what they've seen of the 787 (either the plane or the program), and want nothing to do with it.

You may be right. It does not necessarily mean that if when the time comes to replace the A330's Boeing has gotten the bugs worked out of the 787 and they are proving satisfactory that they will not order them at that time.

Quoting na (Reply 54):
It would be a sad day for me if LH orders the 777X.

What do you have against it?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ZEDZAG
Posted 2013-09-13 14:40:33 and read 43407 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 30):
Lufthansa future long-haul fleet will consist of the following aircraft:

> A330
> A359 (replacing A343)
> B779 (replacing A346)
> B748 (replacing B744)
> A388 (replacing B744)
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
n the previous thread, people calculated 330 to 350 seats in a new, updated LH cabin configuration inside the 777-9.

In this arrangement there would be quite a gap between 359 and 779, if 343 seats ~217 and 346 ~305, in a new arrangement 359 would seat from 230 to 240 and as you noted earlier 779 would seat between 330 to 350, so there would be a gap of ~100 seats in the fleet, isnt this quite much?

Perhaps the second batch of 346 is here to stay after 2020 to fill that gap for say 7-8 years when LH would order 3510 or 778 to fill it?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 14:48:40 and read 43145 times.

Quoting ZEDZAG (Reply 58):
In this arrangement there would be quite a gap between 359 and 779

Indeed.

Quoting ZEDZAG (Reply 58):
Perhaps the second batch of 346 is here to stay after 2020 to fill that gap for say 7-8 years when LH would order 3510 or 778 to fill it?

Could be, the A346s are currently being upgraded with a new cabin and some are relatively young. I hope the announcement next week will shed some light.

But replacement of the current fleet will not happen anytime soon, because A350s are sold out until 2018, and the 777X won't enter the market in large numbers until 2020 at least.

[Edited 2013-09-13 14:49:46]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Finn350
Posted 2013-09-13 14:53:41 and read 42993 times.

Quoting ZEDZAG (Reply 58):
in a new arrangement 359 would seat from 230 to 240

Where do you get this information? According to Airbus specs, typical 3-class seating capacities are:

A350-800: 270
A350-900: 314
A350-1000: 350

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: NeutronStar73
Posted 2013-09-13 14:56:14 and read 42889 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
Great news for Boeing to have Luftnansa as the 777-9X launch customer. This time hopefully airlines will buy the plane since the 747-8 has been a dog.

I don't quite think so. If more orders come for the 748 (hopefully) then that "dog" still has some fight in it.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 38):
I think it is a pretty negative endorsement of the 787 program in general. LH are a very conservative airline and like things to be a certain way. To me this tells me that they are no happy with what they've seen of the 787 (either the plane or the program), and want nothing to do with it. Also they may get A359's a lot sooner than the 7810, if that's important to them.

HA! I think this is a fairly ridiculous remark. I don't think LH's failure to order the 787 is a negative mark on the program just a reflection of many factors: availability, requirements, cost, etc. The 787-10 was snatched up by other airlines as soon as it was offered: 102 aircraft among 5 airlines, with over 900 orders for the aircraft. Don't think that is a negative, Chief....

If their failure to order the 787 is a negative, perhaps their failure to order up the A351 instead of the 777X is proof they don't have confidence in that airframe? Of course not; It just didn't suit their needs, while the A359 and 777X did meet their requirements.

If anything, as the article states, is a significant breakthrough for Boeing, because most expected this to be an all Airbus order.

Congrats to both: looks like assembly lines will be fully employed for years to come! Yay more high paying jobs across the world!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 14:56:23 and read 42891 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 60):
Where do you get this information? According to Airbus specs, typical 3-class seating capacities are:

Lufthansa cabin products require a bit more space. Check the previous thread for the numbers:

Lufthansa's Upcoming Wide-Body Order (by tortugamon Sep 8 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ZEDZAG
Posted 2013-09-13 14:57:34 and read 42920 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 59):
But replacement of the current fleet will not happen anytime soon, because A350s are sold out until 2018, and the 777X won't enter the market in large numbers until 2020 at least.

I know, so 343 will be bled dry until it comes to replacing them, while 346 still have life in them, because the oldest isnt yet older than ten years

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 15:00:58 and read 42755 times.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 61):
If anything, as the article states, is a significant breakthrough for Boeing, because most expected this to be an all Airbus order.

Many here on a.net indeed, but analysts predicted a split order.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-13 15:13:17 and read 42428 times.

I am quite sad not to see the 787-10 as being part of the deal -if this indeed is the correct outcome -but this split makes perfect sense for various reasons:

a) LH has a very young A330-300 fleet that is going to stay for a long time. The A330-300 and A340-300 almost have the same capacity with LH but the A340-300 offers more range. The A350-900 fills the gap when the A340-300 is leaving their aircraft for long and thin routes

b) The 777-9X can replace both the 747-400 and A340-600.


I guess both manufacturers fought hard over this order and LH got a good price with Boeing on the 777-9X as the first customer as well as for the 747-8I delay and tail tank issues.

Better late than never, LH will become a major 777 customer after all operating the 777X, 777F and 777-300ER for Swiss.

Funny thought the 7 unknown 777W placed on August 26th are indeed for LH as an interim lift  Unidentified 77W Order, August 26 (by kaitak Sep 5 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Finn350
Posted 2013-09-13 15:17:30 and read 42258 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 62):
Lufthansa cabin products require a bit more space. Check the previous thread for the numbers:

OK, but if we assume that LH A359 seats 230-240 instead of 314 "standard 3-class seating" capacity, then shouldn't 777-9 seating capacity have the same 25 % reduction? That would reduce LH 777-9 seating capacity from 407 to around 305 seats?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Ruscoe
Posted 2013-09-13 15:18:13 and read 42230 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 38):
I think it is a pretty negative endorsement of the 787 program

Well I think it is more negative for the 350-1000, since the 779 was selected over the 351 in a direct competition.

If this order is confirmed, if, then I believe Boeing will see it as a great victory, and Airbus will have further anxiety regarding the 351.


Ruscoe

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 15:21:05 and read 42169 times.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 67):
Well I think it is more negative for the 350-1000, since the 779 was selected over the 351 in a direct competition.

The 779 and A351 are not direct competitors, they have a seat capacity difference of almost 60 seats.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-13 15:27:01 and read 41959 times.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 67):
If this order is confirmed, if, then I believe Boeing will see it as a great victory, and Airbus will have further anxiety regarding the 351.

I don't think they need have great anxiety; they are clearly different planes, as the 779 is significantly larger. I do not doubt that the A3510 will do quite well. It just will not kill the 777, as Airbus hoped it would, but that was always an unrealistic expectation. To expect Boeing to sit still while Airbus attempts to eat their lunch is ludicrous. The fact that Boeing had to go bigger in order to stay competitive shows how good the A3510 is.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 15:27:12 and read 41922 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 66):
OK, but if we assume that LH A359 seats 230-240 instead of 314 "standard 3-class seating" capacity, then shouldn't 777-9 seating capacity have the same 25 % reduction? That would reduce LH 777-9 seating capacity from 407 to around 305 seats?

25% reduction would mean around 330 seats, not 305.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LZ129
Posted 2013-09-13 15:30:10 and read 41822 times.

Does anybody have a good guess as to when the 359s could join the fleet?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Finn350
Posted 2013-09-13 15:34:04 and read 41819 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 70):
25% reduction would mean around 330 seats, not 305.

According to this source

http://www.aspireaviation.com/2013/0...eing-777x-to-spark-mini-jumbo-war/

Boeing 777-9 would seat 407, and I suppose it is a typical 3-class configuration.

0,75 x 407 = 305

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-09-13 15:35:23 and read 41835 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 36):
Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 33):
I wonder if the future AF1 jet will be either a B777-8 or B777-9?

Leeham has an article about this subject.

See Usaf Looking To Replace Air Force One (by 747megatop Sep 10 2013 in Military Aviation & Space Flight)

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):
There seems to be a history of "winner take all" orders producing two winners. UA, anyone?

And perhaps AA's recent narrowbody order? Many thought that would be an all-Boeing order.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-09-13 15:41:26 and read 41589 times.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 8):
Has that fat lady already sung? If so, what did she sing?

Something from a German opera, I should thing ... the fourth part of Wagner's Ring trilogy, where Brunehilde trades her pigtails for a 777.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 17):
The last 20 744 aircraft can be replaced with the remainder 9 A380 and 10 748i aircraft on order.

Do you think the 747-8s are still likely; I wonder if, as part of this deal, Boeing will have agreed to cancel the outstanding 747-8s and buy back some of the existing aircraft down the road.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):
If this means no more 748I orders than this is a black friday for aviation.

It was coming for a long time; the 747-8 was pretty much dead in the water a long time before the 777X was launched; what can the 747-8 do that the 777-9X won't be able to do ... and no doubt at a considerable fuel saving.

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 31):
An LH 777. Now Jesus can return.

Yes, but he'll be flying Ryanair. It's his modern day cross to bear.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 15:41:42 and read 41626 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 72):
Boeing 777-9 would seat 407, and I suppose it is a typical 3-class configuration.

Yes that's a typical 3-class configuration with 60" J seats, but Lufthansa's new J seats are 78". Therefore you won't fit 407 seats in it.

Airbus and Boeing also uses a different cabin so you can't just use 25% reduction on both aircraft. I also believe the A359 number was more like 255 seats instead of 240. I suggest reading the previous thread for the correct numbers (look for the last posts)  

Quoting Revelation (Reply 18):
The article mentions this order was previously said to be "winner-take-all" contest.

In June, it would be an all Airbus or all Boeing order:

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/awx_06_03_2013_p0-584172.xml

But in August, this changed to all Airbus, all Boeing or a mixed order:

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/avd_08_22_2013_p02-01-608957.xml

[Edited 2013-09-13 15:42:45]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-13 15:45:30 and read 41572 times.

For all that thinks LH will stay with 359 and 779 only for longhaul below 380. Why would they? CX also only ordered 359 and there was kilometers written about the fact that the 35J was a dead horse and no-one would buy it as it was such a terrible birth, now what only 2 years later (and add DL to that)?

LH buys 359 today with every right to switch everyone of these orders and options to 35J just like CX and DL. Having the 350 and the 777X family in the stable makes for the most cost efficient and flexible 300-400 fleet you can find, it might even contain a few 778 in the end. The 359, 35J, 778 (yes 778) and 779 are ALL extremely efficient and covers a very useful capacity-range spectrum.

It is a clever choice to standardize on these 2 families. The 358 will decide if the 787 family will be added to this, a fully optimized 358 (then coming after 35J) might spoil that party, otherwise the LH group needs something smaller then the 359 and there is no other choice then the 787.

A and B has divided the DA market nicely between then    .

[Edited 2013-09-13 15:48:21]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-09-13 15:45:42 and read 41397 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

And EK and DL (other than the order inherited from NWA).

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 61):
HA! I think this is a fairly ridiculous remark. I don't think LH's failure to order the 787 is a negative mark on the program just a reflection of many factors: availability, requirements, cost, etc
Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 61):
If their failure to order the 787 is a negative, perhaps their failure to order up the A351 instead of the 777X is proof they don't have confidence in that airframe?
Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 67):
Well I think it is more negative for the 350-1000, since the 779 was selected over the 351 in a direct competition.

I certainly think it is a negative sign for the 787 program that the two latest orders for long-haul aircraft by two of the largest airlines of the world (DL and LH) have not included the 787. Especially since DL specifically referred to the risk of new models that they wanted to avoid.

And even if LH did not order the A351, they have at least ordered another variant of the A350; same cannot be said for the 787.

And congrats to Boeing for the launch 777X order - a great aircraft family destined for further greatness!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 15:46:33 and read 41399 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 74):
Do you think the 747-8s are still likely; I wonder if, as part of this deal, Boeing will have agreed to cancel the outstanding 747-8s and buy back some of the existing aircraft down the road.

Their last ten 748i's on order will definitively be delivered: 5 in 2014 and 5 in 2015. In fact, 1 of those 10 is already in final assembly, with a delivery scheduled for January 2014.

It also makes no sense to cancel those aircraft and wait 5-6 years for a replacement.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-13 15:50:02 and read 41219 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 73):

And perhaps AA's recent narrowbody order? Many thought that would be an all-Boeing order.

I never heard that it was going to be winner take all, but you may be right.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 74):
I wonder if, as part of this deal, Boeing will have agreed to cancel the outstanding 747-8s and buy back some of the existing aircraft down the road.

I doubt that very much. Boeing would be conceding that the 748i's are worthless, and essentially would have to eat them. If LH ditches them, who would buy them? LH will take the remaining ones from their 19, but that will be it. And they probably will be retired early. Unfortunately the 779 will in all likelihood kill off any more 748i orders. The 748F will sell if the freight market recovers, but the 748i is pretty well doomed.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Finn350
Posted 2013-09-13 15:53:31 and read 41140 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 75):
Airbus and Boeing also uses a different cabin so you can't just use 25% reduction on both aircraft. I also believe the A359 number was more like 255 seats instead of 240. I suggest reading the previous thread for the correct numbers (look for the last posts)

OK, now it makes perfect sense. It is actually almost exactly 19 % reduction in both types:

A350-900: standard 3-class seating 314, reduced by 19 % to around 255
Boeing 777-9: standard 3-class seating 407, reduced by 19 % to around 330

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-13 15:55:27 and read 41115 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 76):
For all that thinks LH will stay with 359 and 779 only for longhaul below 380. Why would they? CX also only ordered 359 and there was kilometers written about the fact that the 35J was a dead horse and no-one would buy it as it was such a terrible birth, now what only 2 years later (and add DL to that)?

I have to agree with you. This order is for A340 replacement only, who knows what they might order in the future? And let's not forget the subsidiaries of Lufthansa Group.

[Edited 2013-09-13 15:57:07]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Ruscoe
Posted 2013-09-13 16:31:22 and read 40355 times.

I think the non 351 order is confirmation that the 351 is not sitting comfortably.
LH has said (indirectly) that it has too much range for the capacity (wrong payload/range), in their comments about building craft to suit the middle East carriers, whilst even the Middle East carriers, seemed unhappy with the last payload/range hike.

It seems to me that at those sort of capabilities, the 779 becomes the best choice. If the 351 was a longer 359, it would expect it to be very successful, without nearly as much risk or expense from Airbus, and would suit LH nicely.

Ruscoe

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-13 16:43:35 and read 40071 times.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 82):
I think the non 351 order is confirmation that the 351 is not sitting comfortably.
LH has said (indirectly) that it has too much range for the capacity (wrong payload/range), in their comments about building craft to suit the middle East carriers, whilst even the Middle East carriers, seemed unhappy with the last payload/range hike.

It seems to me that at those sort of capabilities, the 779 becomes the best choice. If the 351 was a longer 359, it would expect it to be very successful, without nearly as much risk or expense from Airbus, and would suit LH nicely.

Let say you shall place an aircraft order. The deposit is 5% of the list price and gives you a production slot in a mixed 359 and 35J FAL, you have a right to switch between the types up until 3 years from delivery date. The list price of the 359 is 280m$ and the 35J 330m$.

Now you tell me how you order.

[Edited 2013-09-13 16:44:55]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: NeutronStar73
Posted 2013-09-13 16:46:54 and read 40007 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 77):
I certainly think it is a negative sign for the 787 program that the two latest orders for long-haul aircraft by two of the largest airlines of the world (DL and LH) have not included the 787. Especially since DL specifically referred to the risk of new models that they wanted to avoid.

You kind of gave a swipe at your own argument here, especially since it is well within DL's recent history and nature to buy proven airframes. Note that they did NOT but the A358 or A359 either; they went for the A330. And even though LH didn't buy in, Boeing captured over 900 orders for the program. Hardly a "loss of confidence" for the 787 program, even with repeat orders from other airlines.



And analysts disagree about the whole 'DL stuck it in the eye of Boeing by not buying the 787." They tend to believe that is really isn't a big deal, since they will be getting 787s anyway.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...delta-planes-idUSBRE9830QC20130904

I think a funny comment about the A330 order was people were surprised they didn't buy the A330s used somewhere, given their recent history.

So on the whole I don't think just one airline (discount DL because they pushed their 787 till later anyway) choosing the A359, and, oh by the way, the 777X, makes it a negative mark on the 787 program. You may want that to be the reality, but it is not.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: klkla
Posted 2013-09-13 16:58:25 and read 39765 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 77):
I certainly think it is a negative sign for the 787 program that the two latest orders for long-haul aircraft by two of the largest airlines of the world (DL and LH) have not included the 787

I don't see how this is a negative for the 787 program. Boeing is not offering the huge discounts for the 787 as they did in the beginning because the backlog is so huge. The 777-9 is a new program and if this is true you can bet Lufthansa got a huge discount for being a launch customer.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-13 17:06:26 and read 39808 times.

Coming in late here, but a few notes:

LH does not have options for the 747-8. Their original commitment was 20 firm orders and 20 purchase rights. It stands to reason that LH will not exercise any of those 20 purchase rights unless they wish to replace the single 747-8 order they cancelled.

The 787-9 is indeed too small for LH. It only gets them about 8 more Economy seats than the A340-300 (if using the new Business Class seat). The A350-900, on the other hand, provides an additional 6 Business Class seats and 34 Economy seats than the A340-300. The 787-10 would give them 6 more Business Class and 52 Economy seats, but it may not have the performance to replace the A340-300. Delivery positions for the 787-10 may also be too far out to meet LH's needs for this replacement.

The decision to purchase the A350-900 is not necessarily a de-facto de-facto repudiation of the 787. LH's A330-300s are very young - the average age is less than 7 years - so it will be some time before LH puts in a replacement order for them. Depending on their capacity needs, they may choose additional A350-900s or the 787-10 - or even both.

And finally, if LH does order the 777-9, does anyone know what sides go well with baked crow?  

[Edited 2013-09-13 17:32:00]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-13 17:13:34 and read 39638 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 77):
I certainly think it is a negative sign for the 787 program that the two latest orders for long-haul aircraft by two of the largest airlines of the world (DL and LH) have not included the 787. Especially since DL specifically referred to the risk of new models that they wanted to avoid.

And yet DL still holds on to those 787 orders they inherited from NW, even though they appear to have lost all the benefits of being an early customer (no launch price discounts, no preferential delivery slots, etc)...   

They could have ordered the A350-900 instead of the A330-300, so I guess that means we should consider DL's order a negative sign for the A350 program, as well. They also took the 737-900ER instead of the 737-9 and the A321-200 instead of the A321-200neo. Clearly, a negative sign for the MAX and neo programs.  

Or maybe they just wanted airplanes in a timeframe that prevented the 787, A350, 737 MAX and A320neo from being options... *shrug*


As for LH, as noted above, the 787-9 is too small and the 787-10 may not have the performance to perform A340-300 missions. 787-10 delivery positions may also be too far out for LH's needs. The logical choice for LH was the A350-900. In a decade, when LH starts replacing A330-300s, let's see how they go.

[Edited 2013-09-13 17:31:33]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: BoeingMerica
Posted 2013-09-13 18:20:56 and read 38614 times.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 8):

Is this 100% credible and accurate?

Has that fat lady already sung? If so, what did she sing?   

Who would bet his house on this?

A) Probably close
B) Oh she sang, it was deafening. She brought down the house with her version of Who Let the Dogs Out!?!?!
C) I would be my house. Since I don't own one, you can have it.

But seriously, who let the dogs out?

BoeingMerica

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-13 21:32:57 and read 36229 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 50):

If 748s aren't selling well and presumably the resale market is poor why would you retire an aircraft early? That seems like complete ackwards logic and I know it's a bad idea financially.

Quoting ZEDZAG (Reply 58):

I think a 351 order might slip in here somewhere down the road.

If LH needs more capacity the 787-10 would have been better but a A351 A359 combo would be more versatile.

I don't know of any LH routes where the 787-10 lacks necessary performance so I think this order had a lot to do with pricing and availability.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2013-09-13 23:31:10 and read 34803 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 38):
I think it is a pretty negative endorsement of the 787 program in general. LH are a very conservative airline and like things to be a certain way.

Don't agree with that. If that was the case then they would not have waited for about 22 years to order the T7 passenger version; was it a negative endorsement of T7 just because they did not order any passenger version?. Just because LH ordered the A 340 was it a positive endorsement for the type? If that was the case then it should have still been in production. Also, LH's ordering the MD-11 freighter does not make it a positive endorsement for the type.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SQ325
Posted 2013-09-13 23:32:18 and read 34802 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 89):
If 748s aren't selling well and presumably the resale market is poor why would you retire an aircraft early? That seems like complete ackwards logic and I know it's a bad idea financially.

Not if Boeing offers some kind of financial compensation, which should be cheaper than offering support for an aircraft series with less than 50 units build for the next 25 years!
But so far we are just talking about rumors, beginning of next week we will know more.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Max Q
Posted 2013-09-13 23:49:06 and read 34612 times.

Ironic that LH's largest Aircraft will one day be a 777 and it looks like UA's will be the A350-1000.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-13 23:49:36 and read 34554 times.

Quoting SQ325 (Reply 91):

If its meeting it's goals then why would Boeing compensate them?

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: 9V-SVC
Posted 2013-09-13 23:53:46 and read 34540 times.

Quoting Max Q (Reply 92):

I think you have forgotten about the A380.  

Charles

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-13 23:55:47 and read 34746 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 87):
787-10 may not have the performance to perform A340-300 missions.

To better understand the choice by LH between the 787-10 and the A350-900 I made a real Payload-Range chart for these two types as it would have been seen by LH evaluation team. It is based on the latest figures re weights and engine performance (thus includes the T1000-TEN and TXWB improved fuel burns) and the real rules that a company like LH must apply.

These we have got from Zeke (Zeke pls chip in if I forgot anything), one example is that the regulatory rule says 5% contingency fuel (for other winds etc) but the spec ranges we have are for an AVERAGE BRAND NEW aircraft and it's engines. Companies can't have the worst example fall in the sea just before overhaul so they add 4% onto this margin. I have also included a realistic crew, cabin and IFE installation, catering for 280 pax long haul and the tare for the LD3s for the bags and cargo. What is left is what the Captain can load and how long he can fly this load including the alternate distance, so deduce another 300nm for this (or whatever alternate you want to cater for, 300nm is not much) from the reading you see and this is your realistic leg distance when there is NO WIND:

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/343787-10and350-900realPilotsPRchart_zpsb98cf23e.jpg

It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind, me thinks LH needed more then that on their longest destinations. The practical 5900nm still air range of the A350-900 can be quite useful in real life.

The number behind the type is the kg fuel burned per 1000nm and m2 cabin transported, it is for the frames max range as shown. This means for a similar range flown these two have the same fuel consumed per seat give or take a minute margin. Then you choose the more useful one, ie the one with more payload-range.

Edit: I also included the 340-300 in the chart, then it is even more clear why LH choose the 359 and it is also pretty clear why LH want to replace these frames (59kg instead of 41 kg per m2 flown 1000nm).

[Edited 2013-09-14 00:53:56]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Max Q
Posted 2013-09-14 00:21:29 and read 34129 times.

Quoting 9V-SVC (Reply 94):

I think you have forgotten about the A380.

Charles

Oops, you are right !

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-09-14 01:02:44 and read 33471 times.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 84):
You kind of gave a swipe at your own argument here, especially since it is well within DL's recent history and nature to buy proven airframes. Note that they did NOT but the A358 or A359 either; they went for the A330.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 87):
And yet DL still holds on to those 787 orders they inherited from NW, even though they appear to have lost all the benefits of being an early customer (no launch price discounts, no preferential delivery slots, etc)...
Quoting Stitch (Reply 87):

They could have ordered the A350-900 instead of the A330-300, so I guess that means we should consider DL's order a negative sign for the A350 program, as well. They also took the 737-900ER instead of the 737-9 and the A321-200 instead of the A321-200neo. Clearly, a negative sign for the MAX and neo programs.

No. Which is why I referred to the TWO latest major airlines to order long-haul aircraft. Delta clearly prefers tried and tested, and I think their deferral of NWA's 787 suggests they are going to take a wait-and-see approach on that aircraft (and to the A350 as well, as a result).

But when you add LH ignoring the 787 in favour of two other, newer programs, I think it is a bit worrying, however people may spin it.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 84):
I think a funny comment about the A330 order was people were surprised they didn't buy the A330s used somewhere, given their recent history.

What recent history? As stated by me and several others, those people are over-stating DL's so-called preference for buying old / used aircraft. With one or two minor exceptions, They (and NWA) typically have done this only when an aircraft model is no longer in production. The A330 is very much in production.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SQ325
Posted 2013-09-14 01:04:09 and read 33450 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 93):
If its meeting it's goals then why would Boeing compensate them?

Because it is not! Boeing compensates LH already for a number of issues, not only the trim tank.
Boeing would be more than happy to stop the B748i programm of course no one will admit that.
It seems logic to concentrate all available resources on a new advanced product than continueing on an ill fated product nobody wants

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-14 01:23:06 and read 33155 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 97):

A program with nearly 1,000 orders is not worry some. 787-10 just got over 100 orders after the issues. Surely LH understands that a problem in 2013 probably will be figured out by deliveries in 2018. A359 was evidentially a better fit/price.

Quoting SQ325 (Reply 98):

Starting next year Boeing says it will be hitting all targets.

Boeing would not be still putting lots of money into the program if they wanted to cancel it. There is clearly value in the 748f program.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: PM
Posted 2013-09-14 01:30:47 and read 32979 times.

I know no more than anyone else here (and a good deal less than some) but it does sound like we've moved from rumours to something close to certainty about this order.

And it all just makes sense. The A350-900 and 777-9 seem to 'fit'.

I'm disappointed not to see the A350-1000 in there but I don't think we can rule it out in the future.

What this means for the LH 747-8i fleet, I don't know. I've had the privilege and pleasure of flying on them five times and I very much hope to do so again. I rather hope they stick around for many years to come.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-14 01:44:55 and read 32778 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 97):
But when you add LH ignoring the 787 in favour of two other, newer programs, I think it is a bit worrying, however people may spin it.


If I was an LH shareholder, what would have worried me is them buying a plane that didn't work for them, regardless of which OEM it came from.

[Edited 2013-09-14 01:51:00]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Ronaldo747
Posted 2013-09-14 01:51:13 and read 32753 times.

I would expect LH will order 787-10 later for A330 replacement. I think they just want to wait until the 787 problems are sorted out.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-14 02:44:24 and read 31991 times.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 102):
I would expect LH will order 787-10 later for A330 replacement. I think they just want to wait until the 787 problems are sorted o

Could be I believe that LX for example will get an all Boeing widebody fleet in a few years. They are too small to have a mixed fleet and cross crew qualification between 787/777 would help them a lot.

I wonder if LH will order the regular A350-900 or the rumored "regional" version with shorter range.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: spink
Posted 2013-09-14 02:54:27 and read 31818 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 103):
I wonder if LH will order the regular A350-900 or the rumored "regional" version with shorter range.

If they order the "regional" version it ends up at about the same range/payload of the 78J. The main range/payload limiter for the 78J is weight for fuel at longer ranges with a given payload. Since the primary reason they would choose the 359 over the 78J is increased range at a given payload, it is unlikely they'll go for the regional version.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-14 02:55:35 and read 31867 times.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 82):
I think the non 351 order is confirmation that the 351 is not sitting comfortably.
LH has said (indirectly) that it has too much range for the capacity (wrong payload/range), in their comments about building craft to suit the middle East carriers, whilst even the Middle East carriers, seemed unhappy with the last payload/range hike.

It has only 300nm more range. I think you're looking it from the wrong side: the A351 is in the same size as today's 77W and A346 aircraft, and Lufthansa was looking for something bigger. In the previous thread, people calculated an additional 22 extra seats for the A351 over the A346, versus 37 extra seats for the 779.

The A359 versus A343 will give them also an additional 38 extra seats, so Lufthansa was looking for aircraft growth around 40 additional seats. The 787-9 and A350-1000 are too small to replace the A340-300 and A340-600 fleet respectively, while the 787-10 will have payload issues as one can see in ferpe's chart in reply #95.

I also don't understand why you would compare the A351 directly against the 779, because it's closer to the 787-10 in terms of total amount of seats:

> A359: 314
> B781: 323
> A351: 350
> B779: 407

[Edited 2013-09-14 02:59:20]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: rotating14
Posted 2013-09-14 03:02:57 and read 31713 times.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 102):
I would expect LH will order 787-10 later for A330 replacement. I think they just want to wait until the 787 problems are sorted out.

I think the 787-10 will find its way into the fleet as the A330 replacement eventually but LH CEO Frantz is unfazed by the delays and miscues.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/lufthansa-eyes-airbus-a350-boeing-787-and-777x

Quote:
Franz said that the Dreamliner's worldwide grounding would not colour his judgement when it came to a Boeing-or- Airbus decision.
"These are problems which happen if you have a very innovative new generation of aircraft. You should expect something like this to happen. I am absolutely convinced (by) the time the first aircraft will be delivered to Lufthansa it will all be forgotten."

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EDDB
Posted 2013-09-14 03:08:22 and read 31621 times.

The way I see it is that this order is only for 343 and 744/748 replacement. 359 order number more or less matches 343 planes in service for LH. And logically, concerning their age, these were the ones to be replaced soonest. As mentioned before the 333s are quite young, so a replacement was never part of this RFP and the order does not say anything about 787-10 or 358 chances at LH - this decision is 5-8 years down the road. Now the more delicate part, 779 replacing what..... Internal LH saying is that the 346s are to stay till at least 2022. That of course means there will be no decision on replacement for the next 5-8 years, similar to 333 replacement. And don't forget, from spring next year on ALL 346 will be based in MUC, together with some 333s. Adding 779 for at least a while would spoil all commonality advantages MUC is having (one reason MUC is a highly efficient base/hub for LH, much more efficient than FRA). So that leaves us with the 744/748 to be replaced. 779 as an ideal 744 replacement is a given I think, complete nobrainer. But what about 748? With only 40 ordered at a ridiculously low price (internal LH saying "We nearly got them for free"), a totally uneconomical production rate of 1,75/month, and adding the cost for performance improvements and maintenance guarantees over the years we can without any doubt assume that Boeing is losing money with every single plane leaving the assembly line! And by launching the 77X they clearly pulled the plug themselves, and they know that. Now LH... They're not this happy with performance (tail tank, water draining from the a/c, fuel consumption slightly below spec....), they're not happy with the fact that nobody else bought it which leaves them with the fact that they're absolutely worthless on second hand market, and they're uncertain about how maintenance costs will develop over the years with Boeing losing interest in a program that costs them money year for year for year for year.... So what's the only logical conclusion for both? Let's terminate this "bastard"! Win-win situation.... LH orders 779, maybe including a buyback of 748 (and if not, so what? When you got them nearly for free, why bothering phasing them out early?), Boeing will arrange a nice 779 deal for the remaining customers, and that's the end of the story (of course excluding 748F, that's a different story, but who knows? Maybe discontinuing the whole program is cheaper in the end than waiting for the freighter market to recover...)!
So that will leave LH with

A333 (B789/10 maybe later on)
A359/35J
B779
A388

in the early/mid 2020s....

No gaps in capacity and a highly efficient fleet (and the possibility of using commonality with 7810/779 at FRA and 359/35J at MUC)....

Let's see....

EDDB

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-09-14 03:27:00 and read 31327 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 101):
If I was an LH shareholder, what would have worried me is them buying a plane that didn't work for them, regardless of which OEM it came from.

Absolutely. Or buying a plane that has on-going reliability issues with something fundamental like the electric power system, which continues to create lengthy AOGs even now though media attention seems to have moved on.

Delta clearly said this was a factor in their decision, it would be naïve to believe it is not a factor for others too.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-14 03:33:06 and read 31269 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):

LH already has their 744 replacement in the a380 and 748. LH has expressly said this is to replace A340s.

They don't have 40 748s ordered

They don't care about the tail tank because they don't need the range. Trim is different.

LH did not get them for free.



tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: idlewildchild
Posted 2013-09-14 03:40:20 and read 31165 times.

I'm surprised at the size of the Boeing order. I expected this order to be about 80% airbus and 20% boeing. The politics of ordering airbus have to be HUGE in Germany since it's home base. I figured Boeing would get a piece because of the volume of US traffic and wanting to keep on good terms with US overall. The split and the boeing share is a lot larger than I expected. Interesting. The 777 program truly is seen as something special. Perhaps when they get the A350-900 and if they're over the moon happy they'll reduce the boeing order? I wonder. I'll miss the A346 - I really like that plane... and I'm a boeing guy!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EDDB
Posted 2013-09-14 04:01:17 and read 30830 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
LH already has their 744 replacement in the a380 and 748. LH has expressly said this is to replace A340s.

Well, what CEOs say before an order and what happens afterwards... I think we all know how different that can be.
Btw why should LH not use the 779 as a 748 replacement if that may turn out to be the most economical thing to do after calculating through all scenarios...?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
They don't have 40 748s ordered

40 is the number of totally ordered748is by all airlines, just for clarification....

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
They don't care about the tail tank because they don't need the range. Trim is different.

Right you are, trim is different, and trim has a direct effect on fuel flow.... Never referred to range.....

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
LH did not get them for free.

Never said so.... Just repeated LH internal saying "nearly for free", which will equal something like the price was so low that they couldn't resist buying it.... Which, btw, is also said about the second batch of 346s, therefore it was preferred then over a 773ER order.

EDDB

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-14 04:01:39 and read 30881 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
Internal LH saying is that the 346s are to stay till at least 2022. That of course means there will be no decision on replacement for the next 5-8 years,

This order is for A343 and A346 replacement.

The 779 is scheduled to enter the market around 2020, which is the perfect moment to start retiring the A346 fleet.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
That of course means there will be no decision on replacement for the next 5-8 years

With an EIS in 2020, they had to order now to secure delivery slots.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
So that leaves us with the 744/748 to be replaced.

LH has another 9 A380s and 10 748i on order, these aircraft can replace the remaining 20 744s.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
internal LH saying "We nearly got them for free"

Right.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
a totally uneconomical production rate of 1,75/month

But that's Boeing's concern.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
absolutely worthless on second hand market

Is this a concern for LH? They fly their aircraft right into the scrapyard, they just retired a 744 with more than 110.000 flight hours.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-14 04:14:05 and read 30675 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 108):
Delta clearly said this was a factor in their decision, it would be naïve to believe it is not a factor for others too.

And yet even it if the 787 had entered service on time and was perfectly reliable, it still would be too small (787-9) and lack sufficient range (787-10) for LH to seriously consider it. To believe otherwise would be naive.

And that Boeing c**ked-up the 787 does not appear to have damaged their confidence in Boeing executing on the 777-9.

[Edited 2013-09-14 04:47:34]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EDDB
Posted 2013-09-14 04:31:28 and read 30477 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
Is this a concern for LH? They fly their aircraft right into the scrapyard, they just retired a 744 with more than 110.000 flight hours.

Don't be too surprised if this paradigm will change with the 748...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
But that's Boeing's concern.

Well this was only to underline that both customer AND supplier are not happy with the current status, both of course for different reasons...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
With an EIS in 2020, they had to order now to secure delivery slots.

Really? Is the orderbook that full already if they need it 2022/23 earliest as a 346 replacement..? Not so sure...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
The 779 is scheduled to enter the market around 2020, which is the perfect moment to start retiring the A346 fleet.

As I said, 2022/23 is the internal timeline to start 346 replacement, so let's wait and see what the 779s are supposed to replace, my bet is still on 748s with a nearly parallel termination of the program by Boeing, and a 350 follow on order for 25 35J in 3-5 years as a 346 replacement, just my 2cents....

EDDB

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-14 04:56:00 and read 30150 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 111):
Btw why should LH not use the 779 as a 748 replacement if that may turn out to be the most economical thing to do after calculating through all scenarios...?

The same can be said about the A346, which is (far more) uneconomic than the current 77W. Yet LH will keep them for almost 20 years, and are even making investments by upgrading the cabin to the new long-haul product.

So in general, if you're theory is correct, we have 2 uneconomic (beware, this is not the same as loss making) airframes (A346 and B748), but the first one gets upgrades and are here to stay for a long time, while the latter ones will be withdrawn within 10 years of service?

This sounds weird.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 114):
Really? Is the orderbook that full already if they need it 2022/23 earliest as a 346 replacement..? Not so sure...

Yes. The production rate of a new airframe is always low in the beginning, and Emirates is about to order as many as 100 units. If you want to secure delivery slots for the beginning of the 2020s, you'll have to order now.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: CARST
Posted 2013-09-14 05:34:45 and read 29461 times.

I think if this turns out to be true, LH will still order the 787 in the future. But this could take a while, perhaps when the "second generation" is ready, a 787-9LR and -10LR would be perfect A333 replacements.

As KarelXWB pointed out, there is a replacement for all current types in their fleet, but no replacement for the A333 size class so far:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 30):
> A330
> A359 (replacing A343)
> B779 (replacing A346)
> B748 (replacing B744)
> A388 (replacing B744)

And even with growth in mind, they would still need an A333 size class plane for SN, OS and perhaps even LX.



Is a split-order for the narrowbody market possible now, too? They would need a huge number of A320 class aircraft for the whole LH group. This could be split up, too. Or did we saw a split-order already with the order of the C-Series?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-14 05:39:40 and read 29470 times.

Quoting CARST (Reply 116):
Is a split-order for the narrowbody market possible now, too? They would need a huge number of A320 class aircraft for the whole LH group. This could be split up, too. Or did we saw a split-order already with the order of the C-Series?

The LH Group ordered 100 A320s a few months ago.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...rder-for-100-a320-family-aircraft/

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-14 05:40:41 and read 29486 times.

Just to comment on why frames like 787-10 and 350-900 loose so much range when they get realistically loaded when fuel guzzlers like the 340-300 does not.

It has to do with how these new efficient aircraft's reach their phenomenal ranges, by virtue of getting many nm per tonne of fuel. They both get about 88nm per tonne of fuel versus the 66nm the 343 gets out of a tonne. The flip side is it works the other way as well, you loose 88nm for every tonne of increased weight instead of 66.

So your range loss for an extra tonne in weight before you count the payload is 25% lower on the gaz guzzler then on the new "weight sensitive" efficiency wonders  . Something to brag about for the Captains of 744s or 343/346s  Wow!  . This can all be seen graphically in post 95, past the first corner of the curve is the tonnes of payload vs tonnes of fuel trade area. You trade down very fast on the 343 (and 744 etc) but you also trade up fast when you gain a tonne.

All this does not change the fact that these birds consume a lot of fuel and are thus uneconomical, it just explains how a 7300nm 744 (46nm/t) can be equally usable on a long leg as a 7900nm 77W (59nm/t) or a 8400nm 35J (77nm/t). When you load them up to the practical case their practical range is pretty similar.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: flyglobal
Posted 2013-09-14 05:50:14 and read 29233 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 114):
As I said, 2022/23 is the internal timeline to start 346 replacement, so let's wait and see what the 779s are supposed to replace, my bet is still on 748s with a nearly parallel termination of the program by Boeing, and a 350 follow on order for 25 35J in 3-5 years as a 346 replacement, just my 2cents....

An Idea, just came to my mind: How about the LH 748is get a second life as converted Freighters?
It may not be economical for others, but in the LH case it could be a useful 2nd life?
It would perfectly fit to EDDBs scenario.
Whats your guys opinion?

Regards

Flyglobal

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-09-14 06:37:56 and read 28533 times.

If the information turns out to be true, then I am sorry Lufthansa passed on the 787-10. At the same time, I will be truly happy to see old 747s being replaced by the awesome Mighty Triple Seven Next Generation. Kudos to LH for launching 777-9X.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-14 07:07:20 and read 28047 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 115):

Here here Well said.

Quoting CARST (Reply 116):

By the time these a330s need retiring they could be ready for an A359. Hard to say

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 119):

without a nose cone opening it may not be able to fit odd shaped cargo losing much of its benefit as a freighter.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-14 07:30:49 and read 27586 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 121):
without a nose cone opening it may not be able to fit odd shaped cargo losing much of its benefit as a freighter.

The nose door is seldom used in freighter operations. This is not as much a handicap as it might seem.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: alfa164
Posted 2013-09-14 07:35:14 and read 27549 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

...and DL....  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-09-14 07:42:07 and read 27490 times.

Delta inherited its order for 787-8 from NW and kept it for delivery starting in 2020. I expect DL to operate every variant of the 787 family in due time.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-09-14 07:51:43 and read 27302 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 113):
And yet even it if the 787 had entered service on time and was perfectly reliable, it still would be too small (787-9) and lack sufficient range (787-10) for LH to seriously consider it. To believe otherwise would be naive.

Absolutely. I don't think anyone is saying the 787's problems were the ONLY reason they would not order 787s... but it would certainly be ONE of the factors considered in any discussion of the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 113):

And that Boeing c**ked-up the 787 does not appear to have damaged their confidence in Boeing executing on the 777-9.

Why should it? The 777 is a great aircraft, the 777-9 is based on a proven airframe and surely Boeing will not repeat the mistakes it made with the 787.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 124):
Delta inherited its order for 787-8 from NW and kept it for delivery starting in 2020. I expect DL to operate every variant of the 787 family in due time.

I think Delta will wait and see. The 787 is a very attractive aircraft in terms of what it promises, so would be foolish to slam the door shut fully.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: akelley728
Posted 2013-09-14 08:59:49 and read 26281 times.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 50):
Don't be surprised to see the 748s gone by the early 2020s. Lufthansa almost certainly expected a better uptake of the 748 than has occurred, and now they (along with KE) are facing the prospect of holding a fleet that will suffer from poor residual values, and for which they will have to shoulder nearly the entire burden of worldwide maintenance infrastructure as virtually all other 747 operators are committed to retiring their operating fleets by ~2020.

Poor residual values would be a primary reason why airlines hold onto planes longer. See Delta as the perfect example of this. Like Delta, Lufthansa has a top-notch maintenance organization, so they handle the 'burden' quite well. LH keeps their aircraft until they cycle or time out, and I predict that the 748s will be in LH's fleet until they reach the end of hours and/or cycle limit as well.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-14 09:24:38 and read 26055 times.

For those who think that LH's 748's are doomed to early retirement: I can see it both ways. But going by LH's history I think you are barking up the wrong tree. Look at what they did with the A346's. Nearly every other carrier in the world who had A346's has dumped them by now, but not LH. In fact, they ordered more even after it was evident that the 77W was far superior. They obviously calculated that they would lose more money by dumping the A346's than they would by operating them to the end of their useful life. And I believe that the operating cost margin between the A346 and the 77W is MUCH greater than the margin between the 748 and the 779. In fact, we do not know for sure (but strongly suspect) that the 779's economics will beat the 748 (considering that the 748 is being continually improved.) So based on prior practice I would expect LH to operate the 748's until their economic life has expired. And in order to have a big enough fleet to make it worthwhile they will take all of the ones they have ordered, and there is even the chance that they will exercise a few of their purchase rights.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: hawkercamm
Posted 2013-09-14 09:54:02 and read 25592 times.

If the B779 order is true I do wonder if Boeing has taken their B748's part exchange  
Or, perhaps Boeing will redeliver their B748i as B748f?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: bmacleod
Posted 2013-09-14 10:48:45 and read 24800 times.

Would be ironic for the launch carrier of an airliner (747-8i) would also be the launch customer for the airliner that kills off or replaces that airliner? (777-9X)

[Edited 2013-09-14 10:49:34]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: phxa340
Posted 2013-09-14 11:37:35 and read 24428 times.

Quoting hawkercamm (Reply 128):

I really like how many posters are stating that the only reason LH is buying the 777-9 is because of compensation/trade for the 748i. Is it possible that the 777-9 is going to be a great plane ? I'm so tired every time a Boeing order is announced the usual crowd comes out saying they only got the order is due to 787/747-8i problems or compensation.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-14 11:48:31 and read 24323 times.

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 110):
I'm surprised at the size of the Boeing order. I expected this order to be about 80% airbus and 20% boeing. The politics of ordering airbus have to be HUGE in Germany since it's home base.

Politics are not running Lufthansa and this order proves it again.

So let's get some shovels and bury this a.net myth once and for all.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-14 11:57:54 and read 24217 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131):
So let's get some shovels and bury this a.net myth once and for all.

Good luck!!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LOWS
Posted 2013-09-14 12:00:37 and read 24213 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
More likely Lufthansa Group will order 787s for SN or OS first.
Quoting CARST (Reply 116):
And even with growth in mind, they would still need an A333 size class plane for SN, OS and perhaps even LX.

OS will need a replacement for the 763s and 772s before the end of the decade. The 788 and 789 will be perfect for the job.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: spink
Posted 2013-09-14 13:28:54 and read 23656 times.

Quoting LOWS (Reply 133):
OS will need a replacement for the 763s and 772s before the end of the decade. The 788 and 789 will be perfect for the job.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the 78J getting a little weight savings and a bit of a MTOW gain making it a much better airframe. The current 78J is very similar to the early 332/333 in its limitations, and as they zero in on it over the years, it going to gain a lot of capability. A net 5T increase in payload will get it close to 500nm in range.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LH506
Posted 2013-09-14 13:48:43 and read 23543 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):

As I said earlier, I think down the road LH only needs

359 as 333 and 343 replacement
779 for 744, 748 and 346 replacement
380.
The only aircraft which would make sense to add is the 35J to close the gap between 359 and 779.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-14 14:03:53 and read 23471 times.

Quoting LH506 (Reply 135):
As I said earlier, I think down the road LH only needs

359 as 333 and 343 replacement
779 for 744, 748 and 346 replacement
380.

The only aircraft which would make sense to add is the 35J to close the gap between 359 and 779.

The 787-10 could plug that gap, as well.


LH has yet to clarify what they mean by their statement that they eventually want to operate "four types" of aircraft. Do they mean families or do they mean models?

If they mean families, that could be A350, 777, 747 and A380.

If they mean models, that could be A350-900, 777-9, 747-8 and A380-800.


And I have to believe that the LH Group wants to rationalize the widebody aircraft types across all of their subsidiaries. The A350-900 or 787-10 seem like natural A330-300 and 777-200ER replacements for OS, SN and LX. I'm guessing there will be no direct replacement for OS's 767-300ERs and SN's A330-200s - those will just be up-gauged to the A350-900 or 787-10.

[Edited 2013-09-14 14:06:14]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: robbie86
Posted 2013-09-14 14:08:29 and read 23406 times.

I would say that it will be like this

A359 to replace A343 and A346
B779 to replace B744 and the A346 routes that needs more capacity.

And I think they will turn their opts on the B748 to B779 and buy some more A380 to replace their current B748.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-14 14:43:45 and read 23230 times.

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 137):

And I think they will turn their opts on the B748 to B779 and buy some more A380 to replace their current B748.

If they follow history they will fly the 748's until they can not fly economically any more. And they will take enough of them to make a viable subfleet. It is cheaper to operate a somewhat less than optimal airliner than to ditch a $200,000,000 investment (or thereabouts; I have no idea what they actually paid. But they did pay, and it was a lot of money.) And the 748 is not a dog; it just is not as good as the 779, in all likelihood. It will take a long, long, LONG time before the fuel cost difference between a 748 and a 779 will pay for the capital cost of ditching the 748's. Boeing is NOT going to give LH their money back for the 748's.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-14 14:49:08 and read 23177 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 138):
And the 748 is not a dog; it just is not as good as the 779

The issue is that people sometimes translate "less economically" directly into "loss making".

[Edited 2013-09-14 14:49:46]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: NeutronStar73
Posted 2013-09-14 15:32:02 and read 22898 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 125):
I think Delta will wait and see. The 787 is a very attractive aircraft in terms of what it promises, so would be foolish to slam the door shut fully.

You aren't making any sense. First you say that DL and LH "rejecting" the aircraft is a negative endorsement on the program, but then you the above. Which is it? I'm a bit confused.

Quoting hawkercamm (Reply 128):
If the B779 order is true I do wonder if Boeing has taken their B748's part exchange  
Or, perhaps Boeing will redeliver their B748i as B748f?

This keeps coming up and I think it is more wishful thinking that reality.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-14 15:39:13 and read 22923 times.

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 137):
And I think they will turn their opts on the B748 to B779 and buy some more A380 to replace their current B748.

LH do not have options for the 747-8. They have Purchase Rights. I know it sounds like semantics, but a (Purchase) Option and a Purchase Right are different things to Boeing. Cargolux's 747-8F contract, for example, outlined 10 firm orders, 2 options and 10 purchase rights.

I do not know what the differences are between an option and a purchase right, but if I had to hazard a guess, I could see a purchase right not having a delivery slot window attached to it whereas an option would. It might not require any type of deposit or a smaller deposit than an option.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 138):
If they follow history they will fly the 748's until they can not fly economically any more. And they will take enough of them to make a viable subfleet.

  

I think it's very safe to say that LH will take delivery of all 19 747-8 they have on order, though I think they will not replace the one cancelled frame.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: spink
Posted 2013-09-14 16:01:36 and read 22730 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 141):

LH do not have options for the 747-8. They have Purchase Rights. I know it sounds like semantics, but a (Purchase) Option and a Purchase Right are different things to Boeing. Cargolux's 747-8F contract, for example, outlined 10 firm orders, 2 options and 10 purchase rights.

I do not know what the differences are between an option and a purchase right, but if I had to hazard a guess, I could see a purchase right not having a delivery slot window attached to it whereas an option would. It might not require any type of deposit or a smaller deposit than an option.

An option generally has a moderate deposit along with a line number slot attached to it and is generally at the fixed price (plus yearly escalation) that was negotiated as part of the order. A purchase right is a way of locking in a price, generally at the price of the order plus a yearly escalation, but does not reserve a specific LN/slot and generally requires a minimal deposit amount.

So an option locks in a delivery time frame but a purchase option does not. For a low volume/demand aircraft like the 748 there is little effective difference, but for a high volume/demand aircraft like the 787/350 it can make a significant difference.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-09-14 17:34:29 and read 22438 times.

Well, this is a pleasant surprise. As an aviation fan I'm happy seeing two good planes sell.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
To better understand the choice by LH between the 787-10 and the A350-900 I made a real Payload-Range chart for these two types as it would have been seen by LH evaluation team.

Thank you. I speculate that LH wishes to use both as combis (as others have already noted), and for that the A359 and 779 are great choices.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):

If this means no more 748I orders than this is a black friday for aviation.

It does look that way. Except... Boeing is cutting the weight and GE will reduce the fuel burn. The forward market of the 748I is small. LH buying 779s pretty much closes the biggest door on the 748I.  
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):

There seems to be a history of "winner take all" orders producing two winners. UA, anyone?

   My thought too. Its winner take all until there is a better deal.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):
The maintenance for the folding wingtips should be very simple; less than for any control surface.

IMHO the folding wingtips are a gamechanger for aviation. Real estate at airports is becoming too constrained. A terminal can be build with higher floors (e.g., use escalators so that half the gates load from the 2nd floor and J class passengers load from the 3rd floor). By cramming in more gates, capacity becomes purely runway bound. And there is plenty of floor space for pubs, golf shops, and other 'revenue enhancers.' The #1 airframe innovation I'm excited about is folding wingtips.

Folding wingtips would allow (all of course future tense):
1. 100 seat RJs that will replace the 76 seat RJs.
2. A321/739 replacements with a longer wingspan and more wing area (lower wing loading) allowing far better hot/high performance with engines better optimized for cruise as takeoff is handled by the larger CFRP wing. For they are the 757 replacement in all but short field performance. I'm not a 'what will replace the 757' type here on a.net. But I think long term narrowbody gauge will grow to higher seat counts will be the norm. So sometime will make a long plane to fit into A32X or 738 gates.
3. And the 779 fitting with a foot less wingspan 77E/77W, it is an advantage. It would have been more impressive with a 200 foot folding span.

Quoting Prost (Reply 22):

Honestly, with the capabilities that the 777-9 is professed to have, it should be similar to flying a combi aircraft was 25 years ago.

But also the A359. Both will have excellent cargo payload at range. Excellent choices if cargo is a significant factor of the equation.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 127):

For those who think that LH's 748's are doomed to early retirement:

They could be retired early. This order is going to doom the A346s to an early retirement. I do not think either the 779 or A359 will replace the 748Is. For that I suspect the A389.  
Quoting robbie86 (Reply 137):

I would say that it will be like this

A359 to replace A343 and A346
B779 to replace B744 and the A346 routes that needs more capacity.

   A good fit. Some A346 routes are ready for frequency or due to hub bypass down-gauging.

Lightsaber

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tkukucka
Posted 2013-09-14 17:49:44 and read 22399 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):

Well Lufthansa CEO did say they won't buy 777-9x till there done with the 747-8
So totally with you on 747-8 door closing.. The order is for 343,,346 replacement not 747-400.
There should be enough A380s,748s on order to replace the 747s.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2013-09-14 17:51:00 and read 22372 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 77):
I certainly think it is a negative sign for the 787 program that the two latest orders for long-haul aircraft by two of the largest airlines of the world (DL and LH) have not included the 787.

How is that "negative"? The 787 was not built exclusively for the largest airlines in the world. The 77X, larger A350 variants, and A380 were. The 787 is a smaller aircraft built for a variety of airlines, but it is built to be the smallest aircraft with transpacific range. Thus, it is no surprise at all that an airline like LH with a network of thick long-haul routes wouldn't order it. As for DL, their corporate strategy is to operate older aircraft with lower lease payments and acquisition costs.

I don't think anyone at Boeing is losing sleep over either one. In fact, I think they would have been pleasantly shocked to have won either order.

Also, at some point, DL needs to replace their 767s. They will fly them until the end of the decade, but that's when they are due for their 787 orders.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 97):
As stated by me and several others, those people are over-stating DL's so-called preference for buying old / used aircraft.

"Those people" include Mr. Richard Anderson, CEO of Delta himself. And I trust his word on the matter over yours. While it is true that DL will buy new aircraft off the line, they prefer older, tried-and-true models with lower acquisition costs. It's a unique fleet management strategy among the US majors, but it seems to be working very well for them if we are to believe their financial reports.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind,

Which makes me wonder why UA ordered it. Are they planning on operating it as a primarily transatlantic aircraft, or domestic? Such a short range on such a large aircraft strikes me as something I'd expect to see flown in Japan, not in the US. I'm just looking at the routes it might do. It can do the transatlantic routes from ORD, EWR, and IAD. It can do ORD-HNL and maaaaybe EWR-HNL. But it can't do SFO-FRA or any meaningful transpacific routes. Maybe it will be their replacement for the 77A?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-14 18:03:22 and read 22303 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind,

Which makes me wonder why UA ordered it. Are they planning on operating it as a primarily transatlantic aircraft, or domestic? Such a short range on such a large aircraft strikes me as something I'd expect to see flown in Japan, not in the US. I'm just looking at the routes it might do. It can do the transatlantic routes from ORD, EWR, and IAD. It can do ORD-HNL and maaaaybe EWR-HNL. But it can't do SFO-FRA or any meaningful transpacific routes. Maybe it will be their replacement for the 77A?

Good enough for most us mainland to Hawaii and east coast to Europe. The A35Js may be transpac and us west coast -europe.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: NAV20
Posted 2013-09-14 23:13:05 and read 21644 times.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 146):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind,

If I recall correctly, it was Udvar Hazy who first raised this issue? It appears, on the face of it, that Boeing (by means of design modifications allowing a higher Max. Take-Off Weight, presumably allowing more fuel) later managed to satisfy him that the range will now be 7,000 nms..

"“The 787-10 will be one of the most powerful wide-body aircraft for decades ahead,” ALC Chairman/CEO Steven Udvar-Hazy said. In his opinion, the aircraft will benefit from operational and development experience gained on the -8 and the -9.

"Boeing managed to overcome Hazy’s initial concerns about range by increasing it to 7,000 naut. mi. Hazy said that was addressed by introducing a slightly higher maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 553,000 pounds. Some reinforcements in the wing to body attachment area and on the landing gear were needed to accommodate the increased weight. Engine thrust will also be slightly higher than originally planned. “The range covers 97% of the wide-body city pairs of the world,” Hazy pointed out. Its range will be around 1,500 naut. mi. than the -9."


http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....x_06_18_2013_p0-589320.xml&p=1

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: justloveplanes
Posted 2013-09-14 23:38:06 and read 21505 times.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
To better understand the choice by LH between the 787-10 and the A350-900 I made a real Payload-Range chart for these two types as it would have been seen by LH evaluation team. It is based on the latest figures re weights and engine performance (thus includes the T1000-TEN and TXWB improved fuel burns) and the real rules that a company like LH must apply.

Terrific analysis. Clearly Boeing is aiming for the medium haul market with the 7810. How does the 789 fit in? Less payload similar range? That fits in with the 789 "too small" statements by LH.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-09-14 23:57:45 and read 21445 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):
And the 779 fitting with a foot less wingspan 77E/77W, it is an advantage. It would have been more impressive with a 200 foot folding span.

Not to mention 90m wings on an A380X  

Rgds

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-14 23:59:17 and read 21429 times.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 148):
How does the 789 fit in? Less payload similar range?

At the June 2012 Investor Forum, Airbus showed a payload-range chart for the A350-900 giving a range of 5500nm with a 53 ton payload.

I have not seen anything for the 787-9, but the 787-8 has a range of 5500nm with a 43t payload. I think the 787-9 could be similar to the A350-900 in terms of payload and range since it is larger and can tank a fair bit more fuel.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Speedbored
Posted 2013-09-15 00:10:57 and read 21346 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 147):
If I recall correctly, it was Udvar Hazy who first raised this issue? It appears, on the face of it, that Boeing (by means of design modifications allowing a higher Max. Take-Off Weight, presumably allowing more fuel) later managed to satisfy him that the range will now be 7,000 nms.

I think DocLightning and ferpe have already taken into account the 'new' spec. range figure of 7000nms.

What you need to remember is that the 'headline' spec. range figures given out by every manufacturer are almost fantasy figures, that take no account of the operational realities faced by airlines. Airlines pretty much ignore these 'headline' spec. range figures and certainly do not base their purchase decisions on them. Instead they use far more detailed payload range figures, charts, and guarantees provided by the manufacturers, which are modified to take account of the realities of that airline's operation.

Ferpe explains all this very well in his post (post 95). His figures and chart will not be 100% accurate because I doubt he has access to detailed commercially sensitive data from either LH or Boeing, but his figures and chart will be far more accurate than the headline spec figure of 7000nm that Boeing publish on their website for public consumption.

Pretty much every aircraft out there will have a very different realistic planning ranges from the publicly published spec. ranges.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: spink
Posted 2013-09-15 00:20:30 and read 21394 times.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 148):
Terrific analysis. Clearly Boeing is aiming for the medium haul market with the 7810. How does the 789 fit in? Less payload similar range? That fits in with the 789 "too small" statements by LH.

The 789 has tons less structural weight and the same MTOW as the 78J(the 78J is a straight increase in seating capacity at the cost of weight for fuel). The 789 has a longer maximum range than the 359 and it burns less fuel per block hour(less structural weight but lower seating capacity).

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-09-15 00:32:26 and read 21328 times.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 130):
I'm so tired every time a Boeing order is announced the usual crowd comes out saying they only got the order is due to 787/747-8i problems or compensation.

Well... at least now you know how it feels like to read all those "Airbus gives their planes away for free/sells them under cost" comments by usual suspects (you know who you are)...

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: NAV20
Posted 2013-09-15 00:43:16 and read 21293 times.

Quoting Speedbored (Reply 151):
Pretty much every aircraft out there will have a very different realistic planning ranges from the publicly published spec. ranges.

Don't disagree to any extent, Speedbored. It's pretty clear that Boeing and Airbus (respectively) will be able to sell as many B787s and A350s as they can build, for the foreseeable future. My only objective was to point out that the B787/10 - given that Boeing already claim something like another 60-plus orders for the aeroplane being processed - is not in any danger of being 'out-classed' by the A359.

The 'big' question (to which we won't know the answer for about three years!) is whether the A350-1000 will be able to 'hold it's own,' in terms of sales, against the 'next generation' B777s?

[Edited 2013-09-15 00:56:23]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-09-15 01:17:00 and read 21116 times.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 140):
You aren't making any sense. First you say that DL and LH "rejecting" the aircraft is a negative endorsement on the program, but then you the above. Which is it? I'm a bit confused.

No contradiction. It is a sign that some airlines at least are taking a "wait and see" approach with the 787. Which may impact new orders until the aircraft overcomes its issues.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
How is that "negative"? The 787 was not built exclusively for the largest airlines in the world.

Sure, but it was definitely being marketed to them as strongly as to any other airline.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
As for DL, their corporate strategy is to operate older aircraft with lower lease payments and acquisition costs.

You mean established models (as opposed to used), and I fully agree But they have not always been averse to buying new models, in this specific instance the issues with the 787 ensured they stuck to the tried and true aircraft strategy.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
I don't think anyone at Boeing is losing sleep over either one. In fact, I think they would have been pleasantly shocked to have won either order.

They should be concerned that 787 did not figure in either order, while of course they should be delighted the 777X has a solid launch customer now. It is not an either/or for them, this one surely results in mixed feelings.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
"Those people" include Mr. Richard Anderson, CEO of Delta himself. And I trust his word on the matter over yours. While it is true that DL will buy new aircraft off the line, they prefer older, tried-and-true models with lower acquisition costs

You misunderstood. The myth being referred to was the buying of used aircraft from other airlines, not of buying new examples of older models from the OEMs.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-15 02:05:00 and read 20900 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 155):
Sure, but it was definitely being marketed to them as strongly as to any other airline.

Actually, it wasn't.

DL have stated their RFP to Boeing was for the 777-300ER and 737-900ER.

Now before you jump in with "see? DL doesn't trust the 787!", DL wanted delivery between 2015 and 2017 and there is no way DL could get 787s before them (they have deferred their own birds to 2020).

So it's far more logical to conclude that DL did not ask Boeing for a 787 RFP because they couldn't get the plane between 2015 and 2017, not because they don't trust it.

Just as LH didn't choose the 787 not because they do not trust it, but because it gives them no room for growth in the case of the 787-9 and can't meet the range needs LH requires in the case of the 787-10.



Quoting sankaps (Reply 155):
But they have not always been averse to buying new models, in this specific instance the issues with the 787 ensured they stuck to the tried and true aircraft strategy.

Far more logical is that the issues of not being able to get 787-9s, A350-900s, 737-9s or A321-200neos between 2015 and 2017 ensured they stuck to the tried and true aircraft strategy.



Quoting sankaps (Reply 155):
They should be concerned that 787 did not figure in either order, while of course they should be delighted the 777X has a solid launch customer now.

Again, Boeing can't deliver a 787 to DL between 2015 and 2017 so why should they be concerned? If they should be concerned about anything with this order, it is that DL did not order the 777-300ER, which means they're a possible A350-1000 candidate down the road.

And the 787 lacks the capacity and the range LH wants, which I guess is of some concern, but Boeing defined the plane almost a decade ago so not like they can change it now. Fortunately for Boeing, the 777X does have the capacity and the range LH wants and that they ordered it instead of the A350-1000 must be a cause for concern for Airbus, not Boeing, IMO.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: waly777
Posted 2013-09-15 02:39:18 and read 20681 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 155):
They should be concerned that 787 did not figure in either order, while of course they should be delighted the 777X has a solid launch customer now. It is not an either/or for them, this one surely results in mixed feelings.

Why would they be? The time frame DL wanted made the 787 out of the question for the recent order, with LH the order was to replace A340...and the 2 aircraft types chosen fit perfectly and allows growth potential. For LH when the A330 replacement order is due a few years down the line, the 787 will quite likely feature as well as with orders to replace wide bodies in the LH group.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-15 03:12:01 and read 20493 times.

I remember a statement a few months ago where LH stated that they are not pleased with the changes Boeing did with the 787-10.

Also a few weeks ago there was a statement by a Swiss manager saying that Swiss has no interest in A350 anymore. They have made their decision in favor for Boeing and will build their future fleet around the 777.
When it comes to replace the remaing A340s and A330s with Swiss it will be an order for the 787 and maybe in a few years when it comes to replace their A330s I believe we will see an order for the 787-10 by LH.

I am curious to see how many 777s LH will order would be funny to see LH being one of the biggest 777 customers in a few years   (when you count the T7s for Swiss, the 777Fs and the 777Xs for LH)

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: justloveplanes
Posted 2013-09-15 03:25:04 and read 20441 times.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 155):
They should be concerned that 787 did not figure in either order, while of course they should be delighted the 777X has a solid launch customer now. It is not an either/or for them, this one surely results in mixed feelings.

Boeing should have zero concern with DL getting 330's(!) as Airbus should have zero concern with DL not buying 350's.

Note Delta is buying previous gen aircraft because:

1) Top up existing fleet without ordering a new type
2) Faster delivery
3) Lower Acquisition costs.

DL does the equivalent of buying last year's model at the end of year sale, like many buyers do their cars. Works for them. It will be a while before we see a 787 or 350 order out of Delta. I mean they are buying used 717's (ditto !)

[Edited 2013-09-15 03:50:50]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-15 03:29:35 and read 20434 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 156):

I am surprised to read that you think LH did not buy the 787-10 because of its range. They have stated many times that they wish more aircraft were available with less ME-based 8,000nm range. We're they fibbing? Clearly routes from Europe require less range. Is 12.5% too much less; they have been raising this argument bc they only want 5% less or is it because they had not done the quality analysis that ferpe laid out which shows the significant impact of added weight on these efficient frames?

I have a hard time believing any of these arguments. There may be one or two routes where they could have had a payload issue, I accept that. I think it isn't that cut and dry. Maybe they wanted aircraft in 2017/2018 which would be tough for the 787-10. Maybe it was pricing as Boeing is not as open to large discounts on this program. Maybe they didn't think they needed te extra seats. We have shown the 787-10 to be a bigger aircraft than the a344. A359 is certainly a more modest increase.

I really can't see the decision coming down to only one of these factors, rather a mix of a couple factors.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-15 03:35:40 and read 20429 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 160):
I am surprised to read that you think LH did not buy the 787-10 because of its range.

Well we are talking about an A340-300 replacement, which is a ULH airframe even if LH may not currently be deploying them on ULH routes. And when I say ULH, I'm talking 14-hour mission duration. The A350-900 can comfortably handle those types of missions wereas I believe a 787-10 will struggle. So if LH is looking for a ULH platform for future expansion...

Now when it comes time for the A330-300 replacement, LH may revisit the 787-10. Especially if LX is indeed planning to add it to their fleet (which I expect would only happen with LH's blessing) as an A330-300 replacement.



Quoting columba (Reply 158):
I remember a statement a few months ago where LH stated that they are not pleased with the changes Boeing did with the 787-10.

Do you happen to recall what they didn't like? The only change I can think of is it is a 5m stretch as opposed to a 6m stretch.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-15 03:41:37 and read 20388 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
Which makes me wonder why UA ordered it. Are they planning on operating it as a primarily transatlantic aircraft, or domestic? Such a short range on such a large aircraft strikes me as something I'd expect to see flown in Japan, not in the US. I'm just looking at the routes it might do. It can do the transatlantic routes from ORD, EWR, and IAD. It can do ORD-HNL and maaaaybe EWR-HNL. But it can't do SFO-FRA or any meaningful transpacific routes. Maybe it will be their replacement for the 77A?

It should be no problem for the 787-10 to fly 6000nm without any additional cargo. You can see a drop in range from 6000 to 5000nm with 10t additional cargo. Belly cargo is very important for LH, but there are enough operators who are less concerned about this.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: DocLightning
Posted 2013-09-15 03:57:14 and read 20314 times.

Quoting Speedbored (Reply 151):
What you need to remember is that the 'headline' spec. range figures given out by every manufacturer are almost fantasy figures

   If you believe those sorts of figures, then the 77L can do LHR-SYD nonstop.  
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 162):
Belly cargo is very important for LH, but there are enough operators who are less concerned about this.

But that generally makes it less competitive than the A350. Remember, airlines will operate a frame for 10-20 years (or in DL's case, sometimes 30+) before retiring it. They want a frame with the most versatility to adapt to changing business climates.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-15 04:15:04 and read 20231 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 161):

I can't find a single 14-hr route in LH's network. Even the 11+ hour routes are flown by 747s and A380s. There may be one or two new city pairs in South America Or in Indonesia beyond 11hour missions but there are not many. I don't think it's a ULH play. Maybe it has to do with field performance or cargo but I can't see it being range.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: waly777
Posted 2013-09-15 04:27:07 and read 20172 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 164):
I can't find a single 14-hr route in LH's network. Even the 11+ hour routes are flown by 747s and A380s. There may be one or two new city pairs in South America Or in Indonesia beyond 11hour missions but there are not many. I don't think it's a ULH play. Maybe it has to do with field performance or cargo but I can't see it being range.

But with LH having 50% of its cargo flown on pax aircraft, range and cargo are directly related. I don't know the numbers but can the 787J carry as much cargo on the 11hr routes as the 359 or even the 343/346 it would have replaced? I'm pretty sure the answer would be no.

The 787J would most definitely feature when the 330 is up for replacement where it would supercede the 330's capability.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EDDB
Posted 2013-09-15 04:29:52 and read 20177 times.

I still have my doubts on the 779 as a 346 replacement, and that#s because I think we have to adjust your numbers concerning growth in seats available..

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
In the previous thread, people calculated 330 to 350 seats in a new, updated LH cabin configuration inside the 777-9. That's an increase of 24 to 44 seats over the A346, which sounds fair if you're looking at growth.

I looked up the different configurations on LHs 346s, and when new first and business is installed, they will seat 293 (313 with small business class, but there are only a few of these). But since LH just started to remove the lower deck galley and move it to the main deck this will eat up another 2 rows of economy, leaving it with around 277 seats (297 with small business class). So 330-350 in a 779 according to your numbers is a huge step (appr. 53-73, not 24-44) and puts the 779 much closer in capacity towards the 748 (362-386pax).But I guess time will tell...

EDDB

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-15 04:32:34 and read 20159 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 164):
Maybe it has to do with field performance or cargo but I can't see it being range.

That is it !!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-15 04:33:55 and read 20184 times.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 163):
But that generally makes it less competitive than the A350. Remember, airlines will operate a frame for 10-20 years (or in DL's case, sometimes 30+) before retiring it. They want a frame with the most versatility to adapt to changing business climates.

The same could be said about the first A330s, which had 2000nm less range. Yet they sold. I believe the 787-10 will see similar improvements over its life time.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 164):
I can't find a single 14-hr route in LH's network. Even the 11+ hour routes are flown by 747s and A380s. There may be one or two new city pairs in South America Or in Indonesia beyond 11hour missions but there are not many. I don't think it's a ULH play. Maybe it has to do with field performance or cargo but I can't see it being range.

In case of Lufthansa, ULH means payload. They haul a lot of additional cargo around in the belly of those airplanes.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: waly777
Posted 2013-09-15 04:46:10 and read 20061 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 166):
I looked up the different configurations on LHs 346s, and when new first and business is installed, they will seat 293 (313 with small business class, but there are only a few of these). But since LH just started to remove the lower deck galley and move it to the main deck this will eat up another 2 rows of economy, leaving it with around 277 seats (297 with small business class). So 330-350 in a 779 according to your numbers is a huge step (appr. 53-73, not 24-44) and puts the 779 much closer in capacity towards the 748 (362-386pax).But I guess time will tell...

Hmm, I see this as a win win for LH with the 779 because whilst they're improving their premium product it is happening at the expense of cabin space on the 346 and thereby an overall seat reduction. With the 779, they have the cabin space with galleys on the main deck and crew area above the pax deck...so they have a chance to grow pax seats without sacrificing precious revenue cargo space.

The current 346 seat btw 293 and 306 pax, the 779 will be btw 330 and 350 as calculated by someone in this thread, whilst having the improved product....hence no need to face the compromise of seat reductions when your annual pax numbers are growing. Still cannot see why the doubt.....

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EDDB
Posted 2013-09-15 04:51:25 and read 20048 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 168):
The same could be said about the first A330s, which had 2000nm less range. Yet they sold. I believe the 787-10 will see similar improvements over its life time.

Different story I guess... The A333 was not really optimized in the beginning since it build on the much heavier 343. Over time Airbus managed to evolve the A333 into a much leaner and more capable plane, but only because of the potential it got constructionwise due the 343 'genes'...
The 787-10 know is the second stretch of the baseline modell, so I highly doubt that the potential for improvement is as big as it was for the A333... But don't get me wrong, I'm absolutely convinced that the 787-10 would be a great replacement for the A333, especially on north atlantic/india/africa routes. And a 789/7810 combo would suit SN, OS and LX very very well....

EDDB

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sweair
Posted 2013-09-15 04:59:48 and read 19970 times.

How about a 788 for LH, they have some smaller WB jets today that will need replacement one day. If the A358 is not the perfect A332 replacement as it currently is, the 788 might have a chanse?

OS and LX might still get the 787s, smaller aircraft than either A350/777 families.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: JerseyFlyer
Posted 2013-09-15 05:10:29 and read 19969 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 166):
since LH just started to remove the lower deck galley

from 346s

Interesting - presumably to add more room for freight, which plays into the argument for buying the most freight-capable frames.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-15 05:18:18 and read 19958 times.

Quoting sweair (Reply 171):
How about a 788 for LH, they have some smaller WB jets today that will need replacement one day.

LH phased out their A330-200s so they have no need for the 787-8 or A350-800.

I expect OS and SN to replace their 767-300ERs and A330-200s with the A350-900 or 787-10. The economics of the newer planes are so good that the large capacity jump won't really be a liability.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: jfk777
Posted 2013-09-15 05:21:43 and read 19958 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 164):
I can't find a single 14-hr route in LH's network.

Frankfurt to Buenos Aires is the longest flight Lufthansa has in its system.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: finn350
Posted 2013-09-15 05:28:19 and read 19893 times.

As I see it, there are different planes for different categories:

General purpose:
- B787-8 (242 pax)
- A350-800 (270 pax)
- B787-9 (280 pax)
- A350-900 (314 pax)
- A350-1000 (350 pax)
- B777-9 (407 pax)

Regional variants (these will probably be 2-class seatings in practice)
- A350-900 Regional (314 pax) (essentially A350-900 with de-rated engines and less expensive pricing)
- B787-10 (323 pax)

Ultra-long haul
- A350-900R (314 pax) (doubtful this variant will ever be built)
- B777-8 (353 pax)

Clearly, LH was going for general purpose variants, and chose (if the rumour is accurate) to divide the order between Airbus and Boeing. The decision was probably guided by the fact that they needed two size classes. Airbus has no alternative above 350 pax, so B777-9 was chosen, and A350-900 was deemed as the best choice in its size class.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-15 05:36:32 and read 19872 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 173):

LH phased out their A330-200s

The A330-200 used by LH were a short time stop gap until they got their A330-300 delivered. The A330-200s were old Sabena planes. The A340-300s and A330-300s were for a long time LH smallest widebodies and LH made clear several times that they don´t need smaller aircraft. They also got rid of their A340-200s very fast.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 173):
I expect OS and SN to replace their 767-300ERs and A330-200s with the A350-900 or 787-10. The economics of the newer planes are so good that the large capacity jump won't really be a liability.

The 787-9/10 seems to be natural replacement for OS longhaul fleet especially with LX also having 777s on order. With SN things might be different since Lufthansa will operate the A350 and SN being all Airbus I can see them getting the A350.

What about the order for two additional A380s will they be firmed next week as well ?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EDDB
Posted 2013-09-15 05:41:34 and read 20131 times.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 172):

Exactly, galley and trolley lifts gone makes space for 1 more LD3...

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-15 05:43:19 and read 20192 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 176):
What about the order for two additional A380s will they be firmed next week as well ?

I expect the A380s to be part of the firm order, but we don't know when this will be. Looking at the previous orders, the fleet renewal announcement next week will be Supervisory Board approval only.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: airbazar
Posted 2013-09-15 05:49:03 and read 20108 times.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 61):
A! I think this is a fairly ridiculous remark. I don't think LH's failure to order the 787 is a negative mark on the program just a reflection of many factors: availability, requirements, cost, etc. The 787-10 was snatched up by other airlines as soon as it was offered: 102 aircraft among 5 airlines, with over 900 orders for the aircraft. Don't think that is a negative, Chief....

Yes, and most of them have been waiting for it for over 2 years, and htose who've been lucky enough to take delivery of a few have seen their investment grounded for a significant amount of time so far. You don't have to be so defensive. Reality is that LH likes things to be as agreed upon and so far Beeing hasn't been able to deliver on anything they promised, regarding the 787. Which is not to say that in the future, this won't be sorted out. But right now I have no doubt that LH wants nothing to do with the 787 because anything related to the 787 is like a box or surprises.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):
You may be right. It does not necessarily mean that if when the time comes to replace the A330's Boeing has gotten the bugs worked out of the 787 and they are proving satisfactory that they will not order them at that time.

  
Unless the A333 gets even better Airbus has nothing to match the 7810 for TATL routes. So I would have to agree with that. But then again, a lot can change in 15 years. By then the 7810 could very well be today's 773.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-15 06:26:47 and read 19930 times.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 170):
Different story I guess... The A333 was not really optimized in the beginning since it build on the much heavier 343. Over time Airbus managed to evolve the A333 into a much leaner and more capable plane, but only because of the potential it got constructionwise due the 343 'genes'...

Fair enough. Also poorly chosen words of me, I expect the range to increase a bit but with other improvements than the A330 had.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2013-09-15 06:37:24 and read 19928 times.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 61):
HA! I think this is a fairly ridiculous remark. I don't think LH's failure to order the 787 is a negative mark on the program just a reflection of many factors: availability, requirements, cost, etc. The 787-10 was snatched up by other airlines as soon as it was offered: 102 aircraft among 5 airlines, with over 900 orders for the aircraft. Don't think that is a negative, Chief....If their failure to order the 787 is a negative, perhaps their failure to order up the A351 instead of the 777X is proof they don't have confidence in that airframe? Of course not; It just didn't suit their needs, while the A359 and 777X did meet their requirements.If anything, as the article states, is a significant breakthrough for Boeing, because most expected this to be an all Airbus order.

It *may* actually be... They ordered the A350, not the 787. Not ordering the A351 but taking on a A359 instead is totally different to not ordering a type at all. The current day 77W is a good ship, so I reckon one cannot go wrong with the -8/9 version. If one looks at the 788 introduction its been *anything* but smooth, for whatever reasons (and I am not interested in debating those here as they have all been covered elsewhere ad-nauseum). There may have been plenty other reasons too, but the last 6 years of bumpy 787 road would not have gone unnoticed, and I do however, think that this would have been assessed by the asset management peeps over at LH.

I doubt many thought this would be a all or nothing order for the vendors because Lufthansa has stated they will not be a single vendor operator. So I am not personally surprised by a split order.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-15 07:25:40 and read 19543 times.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 172):
Quoting EDDB (Reply 166):
since LH just started to remove the lower deck galley

from 346s

the lower deck toilets or galley? didn't know they had a galley below deck

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-15 07:39:02 and read 19510 times.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 182):
the lower deck toilets or galley? didn't know they had a galley below deck

They have:


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Yoshiaki Hoshina
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Rafael Reca - Baires Aviation Photography


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Yoshiaki Hoshina
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Mario Aurich - AirTeamImages



[Edited 2013-09-15 07:48:46]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: lightsaber
Posted 2013-09-15 08:17:58 and read 19295 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 149):
Not to mention 90m wings on an A380X

Good point. But the reason I neglected folding wingtips for the A389 as that *could* create runway/taxiway issues that I haven't researched into enough detail. But there is a plane that would benefit tremendously from a little more span. 85m to 90m range...

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 164):
Maybe it has to do with field performance or cargo but I can't see it being range.

Field performance could have been a decider. But I'm going with cargo.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 172):
which plays into the argument for buying the most freight-capable frames.

That it does. IMHO, as I noted before, LH went for two sizes of 'combis.'

Lightsaber

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-15 09:02:08 and read 18987 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 183):
Quoting trex8 (Reply 182):
the lower deck toilets or galley? didn't know they had a galley below deck

They have:

But they will keep the toilets???

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: rj777
Posted 2013-09-15 10:40:31 and read 18546 times.

Surprised this hasn't shown up on Boeing's website yet.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sunrisevalley
Posted 2013-09-15 10:48:56 and read 18487 times.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 154):
It's pretty clear that Boeing and Airbus (respectively) will be able to sell as many B787s and A350s as they can build, for the foreseeable future

I think you have put your finger on the crux of the matter. The supply is finite , each manufacturer has a capability to build so many frames a year . They have limited ability to increase throughput without huge capital expenditure which is hard to justify given the cyclical nature of the business. Both are now offering aircraft that are very close in all respects. The difference may well be availability and that could see saw back and forth. A 10 to 15 frame order could change the availability dynamics significantly.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 161):
. And when I say ULH, I'm talking 14-hour mission duration
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
Frankfurt to Buenos Aires is the longest flight Lufthansa has in its system

FRA-EZE at 13hr 50 min. Right on Stitch !

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-15 11:14:52 and read 18259 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 186):
Surprised this hasn't shown up on Boeing's website yet.

Why should it be ? It is not official yet.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-15 12:34:00 and read 17838 times.

In this chart I have added the 787-9. As can be seen it is in the 343, 359 range class when one realizes it takes 3.5t less payload. This is all in the cabin as it has about 35 seats less then the 359:

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/789343787-10and350-900realPilotsPRchart_zps75d2e53d.jpg

So the 789 is a real 12-13 hour frame like the 343E and 359 it is just one number smaller.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: finn350
Posted 2013-09-15 12:53:46 and read 17716 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 186):
Surprised this hasn't shown up on Boeing's website yet.

Boeing cannot launch a new airframe with just 25 or so orders. Lufthansa decision (if the rumours is accurate at all) must be conditional to the 777-9 being launched, and Emirates is probably very near making the decision, too. I suppose Boeing will announce 100-200 orders at Dubai Air show in November.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-15 12:57:39 and read 17761 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 179):
Reality is that LH likes things to be as agreed upon and so far Beeing hasn't been able to deliver on anything they promised, regarding the 787.

Boeing did not deliver on anything they promised with the 747-8 (late, too heavy, poor engine fuel burn, missing flight system software, etc.) and yet LH keeps handing over checks for them...

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 181):
There may have been plenty other reasons too, but the last 6 years of bumpy 787 road would not have gone unnoticed, and I do however, think that this would have been assessed by the asset management peeps over at LH.

But LH isn't taking delivery of a 787-8 tomorrow, are they?

They'd be taking delivery of a 787-9 almost a decade from now. The current 787-9 is better than Boeing said it would be on weight and RR and GE are almost at spec on their engines now, so after another decade of PiPs... LH has no logical reason to be worried about a post-2020 new-build 787-9 anymore then they should be worried about a post-2020 delivery A350-900 - of which we know a heck of a lot less at the moment then we do the 787. If anything, they should be worried about the 777-9 since Boeing has nothing more than CATIA drawings of the thing. I mean, they don't even know who is going to build all of it or where!   

No argument Boeing cocked up the EIS and production ramp of the 787-8, but the only customers who should be worried about the 787 right now are ones receiving a frame that has been sitting at PAE for years and undergone significant change incorporation prior to delivery.

New customers who will be waiting a heck of a number of years for their frames should be no more worried about a 787 then they should be if they were going to get a 777 a heck of a number of years from now.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LPSHobby
Posted 2013-09-15 13:42:07 and read 17391 times.

are some of these A350-900 planned to go to Austrian and SN Brussels to replace their 777/767 and A330s?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-15 13:52:08 and read 17363 times.

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 192):
are some of these A350-900 planned to go to Austrian and SN Brussels to replace their 777/767 and A330s?

No, this order appears to be only for LH itself.

That being said, I expect it will influence what the rest of the LH Group order when it comes time for them to do so.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LPSHobby
Posted 2013-09-15 15:40:18 and read 16895 times.

is the A350-900 a good replacement for Austrian 777-200 and SN Brussels A330-300? and what could replace their A330-200 and 767-300? A350-800 or 787s?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-15 16:26:43 and read 16774 times.

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 194):
s the A350-900 a good replacement for Austrian 777-200 and SN Brussels A330-300?

Yes. The 787-10 might also be an option for one or both.


Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 194):
nd what could replace their A330-200 and 767-300? A350-800 or 787s?

I believe they will move up to the A350-900 (or 787-10).

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: TP313
Posted 2013-09-15 16:28:31 and read 16768 times.

Well, well... come back from the weekend to find out this...

In a previous thread concerning this topic, I defended that:

- The Boeing plane LH really wanted was the 779, not the 78J.

- The LH order would be split, between A and B.

- The order would include 359, 35J and 779.

If this report turns out to be accurate, then I got it almost right, just failed it on the 35J...

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-09-15 22:21:34 and read 16119 times.

Now that there is an article in the business section of today's FAZ which confirms the pruchase of the A359 and the 779 the rumours are obviuously correct.

The supervirory board meeting is on Wednesday when the purchase will be authorized.

Another big news from LH is that CEO Franz is leaving the company to become the CEO of a Swiss pharmaceutical company,

Carsten Spohr is his likely successor, Spohr is a pilot, has the additional qualifications in business and management and was already CEO of LH Cargo for a short period and is presently managing the passenger airline,

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-15 23:23:49 and read 15881 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 197):
Carsten Spohr is his likely successor, Spohr is a pilot, has the additional qualifications in business and management and was already CEO of LH Cargo for a short period and is presently managing the passenger airline,

I can not think of a better man to do the job.  
Quoting PanHAM (Reply 197):

Now that there is an article in the business section of today's FAZ which confirms the pruchase of the A359 and the 779 the rumours are obviuously correct.

The supervirory board meeting is on Wednesday when the purchase will be authorized.

Good news glad to see more Boeings coming to LH  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: justloveplanes
Posted 2013-09-16 04:32:06 and read 14973 times.

Quoting na (Reply 54):
I hope the A340 replacement order is for A350s and 787s only. It would be a sad day for me if LH orders the 777X.

I wouldn't be too sad, I could see Delta ordering a bunch of 748's at bargain basement prices. Perfect deal for a 777 and 747 operator on a really good plane. Just have to see what Boeing would let them go for. Delta big (as mentioned many times), real big, on working acquisition costs versus state of the art efficiency. The 748, versatile gal that she is, might seem like a pretty good deal at the right price.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-16 05:33:39 and read 14645 times.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 199):

I wouldn't be too sad, I could see Delta ordering a bunch of 748's at bargain basement prices.

Boeing is not going to sell them at prices that lose money for them. And if the 779's economics are substantially better than the 748's nobody is going to buy the 748i. I have not seen a good comparison, but I suspect the difference will be enough in favor of the 779 that it will effectively kill off the 748i. Sad, but that is reality.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2013-09-16 07:33:27 and read 14056 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 191):
Boeing did not deliver on anything they promised with the 747-8

And probably don't want a repeat of it with the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 191):
LH has no logical reason to be worried about a post-2020 new-build 787-9

Why? Who is to say that the previous 6 years of the 787 program will evaporate? Sure it could... it could also continue. If I were an asset manager I would have taken a close look at *everything*. From a personal point of view I know which program already instills more confidence when you're comparing them. And I have no reason to doubt that the 77X will be a better program that some before it.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 191):
If anything, they should be worried about the 777-9

I disagree. If anything, this is the program that might have the most confidence. When you are improving on one of the most formidable platforms flying, its bound to be good.

But these are my opinions. You don't have to agree. But I wouldn't be so rash to write off the last 6 years of history as a contributing factor.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-16 07:41:15 and read 14250 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 201):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 191):
If anything, they should be worried about the 777-9

I disagree. If anything, this is the program that might have the most confidence. When you are improving on one of the most formidable platforms flying, its bound to be good.

You could have said something similar about the 747-8 program too. Its tried and proven, low risk etc etc.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: LH506
Posted 2013-09-16 07:47:20 and read 14208 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 136):
Quoting LH506 (Reply 135):
As I said earlier, I think down the road LH only needs

359 as 333 and 343 replacement
779 for 744, 748 and 346 replacement
380.

The only aircraft which would make sense to add is the 35J to close the gap between 359 and 779.

The 787-10 could plug that gap, as well.

Agreed, but would be an additional type. Maybe 778X could do the same job, though a lot heavier.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: sankaps
Posted 2013-09-16 07:55:49 and read 14179 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 201):
But these are my opinions. You don't have to agree. But I wouldn't be so rash to write off the last 6 years of history as a contributing factor.

Well stated, and exactly my point as well.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 202):
You could have said something similar about the 747-8 program too. Its tried and proven, low risk etc etc.

The 747-8 has had relatively few operational challenges. And it is on its way to delivering on its performance guarantees. If anything, the poor 748-8 suffered thanks to the 787, as engineering attention was diverted to the troubled program. And now, with fuel prices being where they are and newer platforms announced, it is just too late to be effective.

[Edited 2013-09-16 08:17:27]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: a380787
Posted 2013-09-16 08:09:04 and read 14031 times.

Would the A359 be the perfect plane for LH to consider launching FRA-SCL ? That would fill a major gap in Star's network between S.A. and Europe.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: oldeuropean
Posted 2013-09-16 08:27:26 and read 13956 times.

Seems that the decision about a new WB order will be suspended:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unt...ten-im-konzern-umbau-a-922504.html

Quote:
Fraglich ist neuerdings auch wieder, ob der Aufsichtsrat am Mittwoch tatsächlich wie geplant der milliardenschweren Bestellung neuer Langstreckenflugzeuge zustimmt. Denkbar wäre, dass die Entscheidung vertagt wird, bis der neue Boss an Bord ist. "Bei so einer wichtigen Entscheidung muss der Neue doch gefragt werden", erklärt ein Lufthansa-Kontrolleur.

...

More recently, it is questionable, again, whether the board on Wednesday actually agrees to the multibillion-dollar order of new long-haul aircraft, as planned. It is conceivable that the decision is postponed until the new boss is on board. "With such an important decision, the "new" needs to be asked," said a Lufthansa controller.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-16 08:30:48 and read 13911 times.

Hmm, that sounds like speculation of the author. According to Jon, the decision will be made on Thursday.

http://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/379619662251954176

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: oldeuropean
Posted 2013-09-16 08:38:32 and read 13893 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 207):
Hmm, that sounds like speculation of the author. According to Jon, the decision will be made on Thursday.

It's speculation of a guy from Lufthansa. According to the article of Der Spiegel, some at LH are pissed of Franz to leave so unexpected. This order is part of his strategy.

[Edited 2013-09-16 08:45:35]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-16 09:44:22 and read 13582 times.

Quoting wingman (Reply 6):
"Boeing jets will make up the majority of the order". If that's true then I will be stunned. I never thought I'd see the day come to be honest.

I am not stunned. But slightly surprised that they have split the order where they originally wanted "winner takes all" for this upcoming order.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 17):
Both A340-300 and A340-600 will be replaced with this order.

Which is logical considering the current fleet of LH.

Quoting Prost (Reply 19):
The winner is Lufthansa. And they're taking it all!

Yes they are!  .

Quoting FlyingGoat (Reply 27):
I'm looking forward to seeing the 777-9X and A359 in LH colors!

Me too.  .

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 64):
Many here on a.net indeed, but analysts predicted a split order.

Well, analysts are sometimes proven wrong as well.  .

Quoting columba (Reply 65):
I guess both manufacturers fought hard over this order and LH got a good price with Boeing on the 777-9X as the first customer as well as for the 747-8I delay and tail tank issues.

All factors will have played a role. These decisions are never taken lightly, especially not at LH.

Quoting columba (Reply 65):
Funny thought the 7 unknown 777W placed on August 26th are indeed for LH as an interim lift  

That is interesting to read.  .

Quoting ferpe (Reply 76):
LH buys 359 today with every right to switch everyone of these orders and options to 35J just like CX and DL.

That is something what I assume as well. But we will know when the deal is officially announced.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
To better understand the choice by LH between the 787-10 and the A350-900 I made a real Payload-Range chart for these two types as it would have been seen by LH evaluation team

As always many thanks for you making the effort.

Quoting PM (Reply 100):
And it all just makes sense. The A350-900 and 777-9 seem to 'fit'.

They do indeed.

Quoting PM (Reply 100):
I'm disappointed not to see the A350-1000 in there but I don't think we can rule it out in the future.

Agreed.   .

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131):
So let's get some shovels and bury this a.net myth once and for all.

You need a lot of shovels to bury A-net myths. They are usually miles high.  .

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):
Well, this is a pleasant surprise. As an aviation fan I'm happy seeing two good planes sell.

I am happy too with the outcome. But that is just a personal thing.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):
But also the A359. Both will have excellent cargo payload at range. Excellent choices if cargo is a significant factor of the equation.

At LH cargo is always a factor on long(er) range flights. Just as at KE.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 149):
Not to mention 90m wings on an A380X  

They would be awesome, but that is still a fantasy. But could become a reality. But this time I focus on the A359 and B779.  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-16 09:54:54 and read 13523 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 206):
Seems that the decision about a new WB order will be suspended:

Since the next Chairman and CEO of the whole company is currently running the airline division, I have to believe he's not only been fully briefed on the decision to purchase the A350-900 and 777-9, but also fully agrees it should be carried out so I cannot see any reason for a majority of the Board of Directors to not approve the purchase.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2013-09-16 10:43:44 and read 13238 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 208):
It's speculation of a guy from Lufthansa. According to the article of Der Spiegel, some at LH are pissed of Franz to leave so unexpected. This order is part of his strategy.

But couldn't it also be that Franz wanted one type, and was pressured into two types, and that's one of the reason he's leaving, because he doesn't feel he has enough say in the running of the company?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-16 10:48:23 and read 13226 times.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 211):
But couldn't it also be that Franz wanted one type, and was pressured into two types, and that's one of the reason he's leaving, because he doesn't feel he has enough say in the running of the company?

The only ones who could pressure him into buying two types would be the Board of Directors and while I do not know who sit on that board, I'm confident in assuming that as a collective body they're not experts in aircraft purchasing decisions and therefore would depend on the airline's management to properly determine the aircraft needs of the company and present that to the Board.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-16 10:55:16 and read 13196 times.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 211):
But couldn't it also be that Franz wanted one type, and was pressured into two types, and that's one of the reason he's leaving, because he doesn't feel he has enough say in the running of the company?

Per the Franz leaving LH thread it seems he may be leaving without pressure to something better at Roche where he is already on the board.
Rumour: LH CEO Franz Might Leave Soon (by wilco737 Sep 15 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ferpe
Posted 2013-09-16 11:59:59 and read 12847 times.

Franz has done a lot of impopular cleaning up at LH group, sometimes it is not bad for the person who had to do all these though things to leave after job done and leave room for a less controversial type to heal the company and get everybody focused on the work at hand again.

[Edited 2013-09-16 12:35:58]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-16 12:59:53 and read 12544 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 208):
It's speculation of a guy from Lufthansa.

So it is speculation. Let's wait until Thursday than  

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 208):
According to the article of Der Spiegel, some at LH are pissed of Franz to leave so unexpected. This order is part of his strategy.

Any idea why there are pissed?

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 209):
Well, analysts are sometimes proven wrong as well.

No argument there  Smile

[Edited 2013-09-16 13:00:41]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tkukucka
Posted 2013-09-16 17:42:23 and read 11880 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 215):

It amazes me how fast you respond and how well
You keep up with the industry keep up the good work!

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-09-17 00:21:04 and read 11397 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 215):
Any idea why there are pissed?

Envy. Franz will make at least twice what he received at LH, which is the lowest paid DAX30 CEO job in Germany, at 2,1 mio € p.a. -.

Franz will go into the history book of LH as a CEO that made unpopular decisions. I doubt that the board would postpone the aircraft order just because there will be a new CEO. These decisions are based on the team work of dozens of staff who made a board presentation based on facts.

Spiegel, also known as "BILD am Montag" may reflect their own problems with filling a top job on other companies, Which may comfort them but is nothing but an isolated view.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: propilot83
Posted 2013-09-17 00:24:49 and read 11403 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Lufthansa will split an order for about 50 wide-body aircraft between Airbus and Boeing, a purchase with a list value of at least $14 billion, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The twin-engine jets will be Boeing’s new 777-9X, which is due to fly by decade’s end, and Airbus’s A350-900, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t yet public. An announcement may come as soon as next week, the people said.

I wish Lufthansa can fly Boeing 777's, that would be nice and really cool. Because I always wished they had Boeing 777 aircraft and 767, but because they are a European carrier, they have both Boeing and Airbus product. I was born in Germany, so Lufthansa is my favorite airline.  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-17 01:49:51 and read 11171 times.

Quoting propilot83 (Reply 218):
Because I always wished they had Boeing 777 aircraft and 767

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Marc Hasenbein


And in a few weeks you should be able to see the very first Lufthansa 777 although it is only a freighter  

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-09-17 03:27:05 and read 10898 times.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 217):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 215):
Any idea why there are pissed?

Envy. Franz will make at least twice what he received at LH, which is the lowest paid DAX30 CEO job in Germany, at 2,1 mio € p.a. -.

Hmm - if the salary played a role in his decision, to me it would seem like it's Franz himself that suffers from envy, not those that are now pissed off at him leaving at such short notice.
By the way - as per 2012 Franz was at €2.6m, which made him #29 out of the DAX30 CEOs - his salary had decreased by ~19%, not least due to the overall results LH produced in 2012: A loss of over €500m.
Surely it would raise some eyebrows to increase his own salary with the backdrop of these results and the cuts introduced elsewhere in the company.

Based on my own humble experience: Leaving at short notice is generally a sure way to piss people off, particularly if you're at manager or director level (never mind VP or CEO level...). Part of that is of course the implied breach of trust as negotiations about Franz's new role will have been going on for a while before the announcement, and it doesn't seem like LH were even aware of these negotiations.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 217):
Franz will go into the history book of LH as a CEO that made unpopular decisions. I doubt that the board would postpone the aircraft order just because there will be a new CEO. These decisions are based on the team work of dozens of staff who made a board presentation based on facts.

Still, the CEO sets the parameters for the work of that team, reviews that work and ultimately signs off on it, along with the board.
Which means that it's at least possible that a decision of this magnitude gets delayed due to a change of CEO - because the new CEO needs to familiarise themselves with what's happened so far, and also because of administrative delays in approving an order while CEOs change.

In this particular instance, the rumoured CEO-to-be, Carsten Spohr, is already a member of the board and head of LH pax operations, so it's fair enough to assume he's very much in the loop on any decisions regarding the imminent widebody order, and even had a good bit of input to it. Unless he and Franz were at loggerheads about some details or other of this order, I don't expect any changes to it under Spohr (if he actually does turn out to be the new CEO) - although a delay to the order announcement may be possible for administrative reasons.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-17 05:49:00 and read 10468 times.

In a German forum there is rumor which claims it will be 25 777-9X and 25 A350-900 as well as 50 options for both aircrafts so lets see.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-17 05:55:40 and read 10381 times.

That makes sense, there are 24 A343 and A346 each to replace.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-17 06:17:24 and read 10255 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 222):
That makes sense, there are 24 A343 and A346 each to replace.

Don´t know if this is true but it said that LH also has the option to change some of their order/options (??) for the A350-900 into orders for the -1000.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-17 06:18:18 and read 10267 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 222):
there are 24 A343 and A346 each to replace.

In term of aircraft numbers the growth would then be 1 for each type. But the growth in the number of seats or cabin area is greater of course since the A350-900 is considerably larger than the A340-300 and the B777-9 is a bit larger than the A346. The biggest gain is expected to be made of course in reduction of fuel burn.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-09-17 06:26:09 and read 10218 times.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 220):
I don't expect any changes to it under Spohr (if he actually does turn out to be the new CEO) - although a delay to the order announcement may be possible for administrative reasons.

Neither do I, and I was one of the first here to mention his name. It would be a very smooth transition and Mr. Spohr has another advantage, he knows the cargo business as well, as he was CEO of LCAG until 2010 and he managed to get that company through severe market turbulences, cutting costs by almost a third and avoiding huge losses that way.

Whatever Mr. Franz' reasons are, it is his decision and envy from others has always to be earned.

I do not see any administrative reasons, the business case is presented to the supervisory board and they decide. Of course they could decide to postpone but why should they? With oil at US115 bbl these delivery slots have to be secured.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: columba
Posted 2013-09-17 06:29:35 and read 10350 times.

Interesting statement by LH fleet planer Nico Buchholz:

Quote:

Die Deutsche Lufthansa will am Donnerstag ihre Entscheidung verkünden, an welchen Hersteller sie ihren Großauftrag für Langstreckenflugzeuge vergibt. Noch seien die Verhandlungen mit Boeing und Airbus im Gange, sagte Lufthansa-Vize-Flottenchef Nico Buchholz am Montag. Sie seien aber in der Endphase und drehten sich nur noch um die Triebwerke, mit denen die ausgewählten Maschinen fliegen sollen.
....
Die letzten Verhandlungen konzentrierten sich auf die Wartung, Leistung und den Lärmpegel der Triebwerke, so Buchholz. Sowohl für den Antrieb des A350 als auch der 777x steht jeweils nur ein Triebwerkehersteller zur Verfügung, und zwar Rolls-Royce bzw General Electric. Deshalb muss Lufthansa diese Verträge gleichzeitig mit den Deals mit Boeing und der EADS-Tochter Airbus abschließen.
http://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/ak...gauftrag-am-Donnerstag-mit-2659182

LH will announce their decision on thursday. Negotiations with Airbus and Boeing are in the final stage and are only dealing with the engines of the selected aircraft (maintenance, noise reduction etc...)

[Edited 2013-09-17 06:37:52]

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-17 06:35:46 and read 10489 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 223):
Don´t know if this is true but it said that LH also has the option to change some of their order/options (??) for the A350-900 into orders for the -1000.

Don't know, but they would not be the first one securing conversion rights to the larger type. SQ did it with their last order, and EK have them too. It should only be a matter of time before we see more shifts to the larger type, but I understood most are waiting until more, real performance numbers become available.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-17 06:58:19 and read 10330 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 226):
LH will announce their decision on thursday. Negotiations with Airbus and Boeing are in the final stage and are only dealing with the engines of the selected aircraft (maintenance, noise reduction etc...)

At least they don't have to make an engine choice, this should make the negotiations a bit easier.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-17 07:35:38 and read 10125 times.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
Frankfurt to Buenos Aires is the longest flight Lufthansa has in its system.
Quoting columba (Reply 221):
25 777-9X and 25 A350-900 as well as 50 options for both aircrafts so lets see.

The number of options seems like overkill.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: bobmuc
Posted 2013-09-17 07:45:25 and read 10053 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 229):
The number of options seems like overkill.

I think the "50 options for both aircrafts" should be more like 25 + 25 option. This would LH give enough flexibility for future expansion or additional replacements within the LH Group.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-17 08:34:31 and read 9794 times.

Quoting bobmuc (Reply 230):
I think the "50 options for both aircrafts" should be more like 25 + 25 option. This would LH give enough flexibility for future expansion or additional replacements within the LH Group.

I can easily see that many A350s but I have trouble with that many 777x. When you say LH group, we are really only talking about LH and LX and I just don't see them needing that many 350+ seat aircraft.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-17 08:39:04 and read 9746 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 231):
I can easily see that many A350s but I have trouble with that many 777x. When you say LH group, we are really only talking about LH and LX and I just don't see them needing that many 350+ seat aircraft.

As with the 747-8, perhaps they are actually be Purchase Rights as opposed to Purchase Options - less up-front costs at the expense of less delivery flexibility.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: finn350
Posted 2013-09-17 08:40:51 and read 9730 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 231):
can easily see that many A350s but I have trouble with that many 777x. When you say LH group, we are really only talking about LH and LX and I just don't see them needing that many 350+ seat aircraft.

If there are 25 options for 777-9, they are to replace 748i's in the future.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-17 09:06:43 and read 9566 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 232):
As with the 747-8, perhaps they are actually be Purchase Rights as opposed to Purchase Options - less up-front costs at the expense of less delivery flexibility.

It would certainly make more sense.

Quoting finn350 (Reply 233):
If there are 25 options for 777-9, they are to replace 748i's in the future.

Making a purchase in 2013 for a potential execution post 2031...that is very forward thinking/looking. Hopefully Y3 and a heavily updated A380 will be on the radar around then. I am not one of those that thinks that LH will retire their 748i's prematurely.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: avek00
Posted 2013-09-17 16:58:06 and read 8794 times.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):
The forward market of the 748I is small. LH buying 779s pretty much closes the biggest door on the 748I.

The forward market for the 748I is basically 0. The freighter still has sales life, but the pax version won't be getting any significant orders in the future, not with A380s and 777Xs both offering far superior financial and operational terms for operators.

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 199):
I wouldn't be too sad, I could see Delta ordering a bunch of 748's at bargain basement prices.

I couldn't see that at all, UNLESS some sort of buyback deal was cooked up by Boeing to offload Lufthansa's existing 748Is to Delta on attractive leasing terms that'd also have to include substantial worldwide maintenance support (as nearly all airlines and many maintenance shops will eliminate their 747 parts stores as the -400 pax model broadly disappears from the skies by decade's end).

Delta's focus on building TPAC nonstops from the USA -- from generally weaker gateways than the likes of SFO/LAX/NYC -- warrants the use of aircraft smaller, not larger, than today's 747-400. Hence the order for new A330s that can comfortably perform a great deal of TPAC flying from West Coast and even certain Midwest gateways.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: seahawk
Posted 2013-09-17 23:34:27 and read 8290 times.

When you look at the pax capacity, do not forget that LH, will add a premium economy in the future. So they need a little more room for the same number of seats, compared to their current layout.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Someone83
Posted 2013-09-18 00:02:37 and read 8166 times.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 236):
When you look at the pax capacity, do not forget that LH, will add a premium economy in the future. So they need a little more room for the same number of seats, compared to their current layout.

Not if they take some of the needed space from C-class....which AFAIK was/is the plan?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: seahawk
Posted 2013-09-18 01:36:45 and read 7890 times.

That is the plan for the existing fleet, yet for a new purchase, it might be tempting to have the "old" number of seats again, just with the additional higher revenue of the premium eco.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: starbucks
Posted 2013-09-18 10:16:06 and read 6941 times.

Tomorrow at 0900UTC press conference in Frankfurt on fleet renewal

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-18 12:18:10 and read 6490 times.

That's 11pm local time.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Focker
Posted 2013-09-18 12:25:21 and read 6464 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 240):
That's 11pm local time.

AM I guess...

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-18 12:28:34 and read 6513 times.

Oops, AM indeed!

Reuters has a new article about this order:

Quote:
The combined order could be worth $17 billion at list prices based on estimated values for the 777-9X, whose new wings and engines are expected to command a premium to existing 777s.

Assuming a split for 25x A50s and 25x 779 aircraft, that would mean the 779 has a list price of ~ $390 million.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: aviaponcho
Posted 2013-09-18 12:46:02 and read 6341 times.

Am i alone thinking that lha might reduce the risks of going for the not so straightforward T7 with some less risky A350-1000?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-18 12:55:25 and read 6266 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 242):
Assuming a split for 25x A50s and 25x 779 aircraft, that would mean the 779 has a list price of ~ $390 million.

Boeing just raised their list prices for 2013 again, pushing the 777-300ER to $320 million, so I think $390 might be a bit high for the 777-9 - that's 10% more than the 747-8.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-18 13:02:05 and read 6213 times.

Quoting aviaponcho (Reply 243):
Am i alone thinking that lha might reduce the risks of going for the not so straightforward T7 with some less risky A350-1000?

The A350-1000 is in the same size of the A340-600 and Lufthansa is looking for something bigger, it would be odd to select the -1000 instead IMO.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-18 13:39:36 and read 5955 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 244):
Boeing just raised their list prices for 2013 again, pushing the 777-300ER to $320 million, so I think $390 might be a bit high for the 777-9 - that's 10% more than the 747-8.

The 77W is at $320 since the beginning of August.

I agree $390 million is high but it would be in line with the rumors, claiming it will come close to $400 million. Even Air Lease Corporation said the price is "very high" during an interview.

No doubt it will cost more than the 77W, but $350 million would be more realistic IMO.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2013-09-18 15:38:42 and read 5587 times.

LH maybe ordering upto 34 777-Xs -

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/luftha...y-order-34-revamped-214026116.html

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-18 15:41:06 and read 5567 times.

One important note:

Quote:
... includes both firm orders and options, they said on Wednesday.

One of the people said the deal penciled in firm orders for 20 aircraft, with options making up the remaining 14.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-18 16:06:20 and read 5472 times.

The article also confirms that Lufthansa can finalize the order once the 777X has been launched. Let's hope they give us at least a render  

Quote:
The provisional order, which can only be completed when Boeing formally decides to build the proposed 406-seat twinjet, includes both firm orders and options, they said on Wednesday.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2013-09-18 16:47:22 and read 5289 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 246):
I agree $390 million is high but it would be in line with the rumors, claiming it will come close to $400 million. Even Air Lease Corporation said the price is "very high" during an interview.

But isn't this 2020 dollars? Or do they index it year over year and sell aircraft at current dollar prices?

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-18 17:15:47 and read 5199 times.

There was speculation that the price would be close to $400 Million. It sounds high to me as well but it was mentioned. I was expecting $385.

tortugamon

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: billreid
Posted 2013-09-18 20:00:34 and read 4916 times.

Operationally extremely smart move splitting the orders.
From a company perspective I would think AB is not happy and Boeing is dancing in the streets as this is the German Airline.

Orders for the A350 have slowed down so in reality this is good for both companies.
My real question is where does Boeing shares go from here?
One brokerage gave it a $167 target that is huge..

As always both A & B are selling a bunch of planes and with the exception of US carriers there is plenty of smart progress.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: ZEDZAG
Posted 2013-09-18 23:55:38 and read 4488 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 245):
Quoting aviaponcho (Reply 243):Am i alone thinking that lha might reduce the risks of going for the not so straightforward T7 with some less risky A350-1000?

The A350-1000 is in the same size of the A340-600 and Lufthansa is looking for something bigger, it would be odd to select the -1000 instead IMO.

You do know that all A346 are to be based at MUC while 333s and 343s will be split between FRA MUC and DUS,

So in a 10 years time FRA fleet would look like this

380
748
359
333
so look at the gap

MUC will have a slightly smaller gap between 779 and 359 so maybe this could work.

So I thik that LH will fill that whole with 35J(or 778, but that is not likely), maybe not now but for sure in the future.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-19 00:39:09 and read 4231 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 252):
Orders for the A350 have slowed down so in reality this is good for both companies.

  So far 100 sales this year with another 40 to come (BA and LH) is certainly not slow selling.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-09-19 00:51:40 and read 4169 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 252):
Orders for the A350 have slowed down

They have?   

You do realise they've sold over 100 so far this year with BA (18) and LH (20-30 depending who you believe) not yet added?   

Boeing must be thankful they've "slowed down".

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-19 00:56:28 and read 4124 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 255):
You do realise they've sold over 100 so far this year with BA (18) and LH (20-30 depending who you believe) not yet added?

And that's without the Dubai air show.

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: rotating14
Posted 2013-09-19 01:49:03 and read 3758 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 254):
So far 100 sales this year with another 40 to come (BA and LH) is certainly not slow selling.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 255):
They have?   

You do realise they've sold over 100 so far this year with BA (18) and LH (20-30 depending who you believe) not yet added?   

Maybe Im missing something here but for 2013, I only see 10 conversions from UA, 5 new for Air Lease Corp, and 18 new from BA. (33) Adding LH for 20 makes 53, not 100 +.   

Disclaimer----> *** This year only (2013) ***


http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...a350s-including-five-1000s-381850/

http://atwonline.com/airframes/iag-b...rways-commits-18-airbus-a350-1000s

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...reement-for-35-a350-1000-aircraft/

Topic: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: bobmuc
Posted 2013-09-19 01:51:36 and read 3747 times.

There will be a live feed of the press conference at 11 am local (German) time:

http://www.lufthansagroup.com/de/the...en/pressekonferenz-19sept2013.html

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-19 01:57:39 and read 3681 times.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 257):
Maybe Im missing something here but for 2013, I only see 10 conversions from UA, 5 new for Air Lease Corp, and 18 new from BA. (33) Adding LH for 20 makes 53, not 100 +.

Just check the Airbus order book.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/co...ate-information/orders-deliveries/

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1
Username: wilco737
Posted 2013-09-19 01:57:43 and read 3703 times.

Thread will be archived as the official announcment has been made:

Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s (by behramjee Sep 19 2013 in Civil Aviation)

wilco737
  


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