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Topic: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: g500
Posted 2013-09-18 08:38:56 and read 8109 times.

No one can argue that the name Gulfstream is synonymous with excellence and reliability...

I know this will never happen, Gulfstream doesn't need to build airliners, they're booked for Bizjets for the next 6-7 years

But could they sell airliners if they wanted to?

Could they give B and A a run for their money??


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Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: silentbob
Posted 2013-09-18 08:44:38 and read 8085 times.

They would be much more likely to grow into the RJ market before going all the way into the narrow body airline market. That said, I don't think that will happen unless they project a decline in the bizjet market over the long term or that there is a need that they can fill without impacting their existing product lines.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-18 08:46:17 and read 8061 times.

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
But could they sell airliners if they wanted to?

If they can successfully certify it, there is no law against more than one major commercial OEM in the US.


Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
Could they give B and A a run for their money??

I do not believe so. They lack the financial resources.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: g500
Posted 2013-09-18 08:51:54 and read 8003 times.

I would think the name GULFSTREAM would give them an edge over the competition

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
I do not believe so. They lack the financial resources.

Yeah I'm not sure if General Dynamics (parent company) has the deep pockets that Boeing and Airbus have

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: francoflier
Posted 2013-09-18 08:57:05 and read 7954 times.

They would need to come up with a brand new airframe from the ground up, and given their lack of expertise in bigger aircraft, I think they would have to stick to 50-70 seats jets for a start, a bit like Bombardier did with the CRJ.

Except Bombardier was able to use their Challenger design and stretch it into a small airliner.
Not only Gulfstream wouldn't be able to do that in my opinion, as the G450/550/650 is far from optimized for airline operation, but even if they did, the 50-70 seats RJ market has passed its golden hours.

It was pretty much a promising and unexplored territory when Bombardier ventured on it, now it's an eroding market filled by several competitors already...

The 100-150 seats market is also full of ambitious competitors, all of whom are struggling. And let's not even talk about trying to erode the Airbus/Boeing narrow body hegemony. That's just suicidal.

If anything, I might see Gulfstream venturing in the military/government business more.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: sturmovik
Posted 2013-09-18 09:00:41 and read 7916 times.

What about the chance of converting one of the bigger biz jets into an RJ? I know the airframe will need a lot of re-work, but surely it's easier and cheaper than an all new airframe? The amount of innovation Gulfstream (and Honeywell) have done on their flight decks is incredible.. would it be too much of a cost to certify some of those products for airline use? I for one think the idea of a synthetic vision equipped RJ is pretty damn cool..   

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):

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The photographers quote on that image is apt.. the bar has indeed been raised  

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: LHCVG
Posted 2013-09-18 09:12:49 and read 7838 times.

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 5):
What about the chance of converting one of the bigger biz jets into an RJ? I know the airframe will need a lot of re-work, but surely it's easier and cheaper than an all new airframe? The amount of innovation Gulfstream (and Honeywell) have done on their flight decks is incredible.. would it be too much of a cost to certify some of those products for airline use? I for one think the idea of a synthetic vision equipped RJ is pretty damn cool..

IIRC there was a cool discussion of the CRJ's history a while back, and the gist was that there were significant modifications required that would indeed be very expensive and would limit commonality between the two. Not saying it's not viable, but it gave me food for thought about just how different the bizjet and RJ markets are, even if the planes are superficially similar. Wings and engines are going to be much different, with the RJ requiring engines that like high-cycle up-and-down use and wings tailored to that mission profile, while bizjets need engine/wing combo's optimized for long-range/high speed cruise.

In short, I wonder if Gulfstream's products are all that well suited for the RJ role, given their very high performance and long range/high speed setup. Bbd obviously does that with CRJ-NG and Global Express planes, but then again they've been doing it for 20 years and have all the major R&D behind them already whereas Gulfstream would be starting from scratch.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: flyby519
Posted 2013-09-18 09:13:29 and read 7838 times.

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 5):
What about the chance of converting one of the bigger biz jets into an RJ? I know the airframe will need a lot of re-work, but surely it's easier and cheaper than an all new airframe? The amount of innovation Gulfstream (and Honeywell) have done on their flight decks is incredible.. would it be too much of a cost to certify some of those products for airline use? I for one think the idea of a synthetic vision equipped RJ is pretty damn cool..

From a pilot's point of view that would be awesome, but we don't pay for the aircraft. How can Gulfstream convince a Major airline that they are offering something new that the airline needs? 50 seat RJs are very cheap now and the demand is dropping. I proposed in another thread that existing RJ airframes could be converted into luxury cabins and used on long haul TATL type flying for some niche airlines, but that idea got shot down pretty hard from the a.net crowd. Would a Gulfstream small cabin long range RJ have a market?

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: sturmovik
Posted 2013-09-18 09:25:03 and read 7764 times.

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 7):
Quoting LHCVG (Reply 6):

Sigh. I know it's probably not gonna happen, but a Gulfstream airliner is one of those 'what if' scenarios I often ponder about.. and having worked on some of their flight deck software in the past, I'm still in major awe of their capabilities, and wish those technologies would make it into the airline world someday. Heck, I got all excited when FX started adding the Kollsman EVS to their MD-11s, fervently hoping more people would follow suit.  

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: apfpilot
Posted 2013-09-18 09:27:07 and read 7753 times.

Could they? Yes they are a successful aircraft manufacturer with a large corporate owner (General Dynamics.) Would they want to? Probably not The CRJ and the Challenger while similar have a number of differences IIRC especially in the wing (the CRJ wing is optimized for shorter segments while the Challenger is better for cruise.) Also the G1 has been used by commuter airlines.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-18 09:40:12 and read 7635 times.

Actually Gulfstream has made airliners before...the original GI saw limited use a regional turboprop.

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 5):

What about the chance of converting one of the bigger biz jets into an RJ? I know the airframe will need a lot of re-work, but surely it's easier and cheaper than an all new airframe? The amount of innovation Gulfstream (and Honeywell) have done on their flight decks is incredible.. would it be too much of a cost to certify some of those products for airline use? I for one think the idea of a synthetic vision equipped RJ is pretty damn cool..   

There are a couple problems with this. Gulfstream essentially has two airframes to work with, the legacy airframe that is used by the G350/450/500/550 and the new airframe for the G650. The legacy fuselage is probably too narrow for for RJ use. It does not have as big of a cross section as the BBD airframe being used on the CRJs and therefore would likely have less seating capacity (ask Embraer how many of their narrower ERJ135/145s they are selling now). The G650 doesn't have a perfectly round tube, so not sure how the space efficiency of that works out.

As far as the avionics go, from what I understand, most airline companies are not willing to pay for the super fancy systems that corporate operators are, otherwise CRJ's would use identical avionics to Globals. I'd also add that there is less of a need for something like SVT on an airliner, since they are far less likely to go into a rural, uncontrolled airport with poor navigational aids and no approaches than a bizjet is.

Quoting g500 (Reply 3):
I would think the name GULFSTREAM would give them an edge over the competition

I don't see where the Gulfstream name will help them. If the name alone was enough, Bombardier would've rebranded the CRJs to Challengers and Globals and Embraer the ERJs to Legacies and Lineages a long time ago. Joe Schmoe's bizjet knowledge of bizjets ends with the idea that they are yet another sign of the 1%'s domination over him. I was flying on a CRJ one time, and showed other passengers some pictures of Globals. They had never heard of a Global Express, and were shocked to learn that the two planes were actually closely related. No one will book a flight just to fly on a Gulfstream, especially since the awe inspiring comfort and performance Gulfstreams are known for are antithetical to goals of an RJ, never mind it wouldn't really look like a Gulfstream without those massive engines (which would surely become CF34s) or that high performance wing...just look how dopey a CRJ looks next to a Global.

As far as answering the hypothetical question of if Gulfstream could, I don't doubt that they have the engineering resources and talent to do it, and no doubt General Dynamics has the resources to do it if they wanted to, but it would require a new from the ground up airplane, and Gulfstream has only done that twice in their history, 51 years apart, (the original G1 in 1958, G650 in 2009). They'd also have to either substantially expand the factory or build a new one, as I don't see the current Savannah line having the space to build in mass quantities the number of planes that would be needed.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: mastermis
Posted 2013-09-18 09:49:17 and read 7584 times.

I dont see why not. Its all a question of will and investment money.

Bombardier just spent +-4-5B$ to develop the CSeries, so I would assume that if Gulfstream were to develop a completely new plane in the 90-150 seat range they would also need to spend that amount and the next 7-10 years.

Simply a redeveloped G-something for commercial use would likely be a dud considering the current ERJ/CRJ market not to mention that the MRJ is also coming along.

  

[Edited 2013-09-18 09:56:42]

[Edited 2013-09-18 09:57:51]

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: AR385
Posted 2013-09-18 09:54:27 and read 7529 times.

I don´t think they have the know how to build such an aircraft. Luxury private jets, bought by customers who really don´t have an issue with costs have a different design philosophy than building an airliner.

The question is if they have enough money to go through the learning curve of the above. I really wouldn´t know but some answers up thread seem to indicate they don´t.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-09-18 10:09:29 and read 7451 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 10):
As far as answering the hypothetical question of if Gulfstream could, I don't doubt that they have the engineering resources and talent to do it, and no doubt General Dynamics has the resources to do it if they wanted to,

Besides engineering, a lot goes into marketing a good product to make it a success. Gulfstream's company culture is geared towards meeting the requirements of a few, very demanding customers. The aircraft interiors are the work of artisans.

Getting an airline to buy aircraft is based more on reliability and profitability.

Selling Gulfstream airliners will require a large part of the company to be built from the ground up. With so many aspiring frame makers in the world, I don't see the point of Gulfstream to scale up in that direction.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: Aesma
Posted 2013-09-18 10:33:53 and read 7338 times.

I'd say they absolutely don't have the engineering capabilities, actually. Not that the engineers they have aren't good, they can keep those, they would just need to hire 10 times more.

I'd suggest asking Dassault about producing airliners, since they're the only ones to have tried to go directly from bizjet/fighters to a new airframe for airline use (and a narrowbody at that). Didn't work too well, even though the plane was not a bad one.

Bombardier are not really comparable, they bought several other manufacturers, including an already developed turboprop airliner, and their first RJ was a development of a product they were already selling, smaller investment, smaller risk.

As for the name, I'm not sure if would help sell even one airliner, however selling airliners under the same name as their bizjets could actually lose them some bizjet sales ! I mean, one of the appeals of driving a Bentley or a Ferrari is that there isn't a cheap one your employees can drive !

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: g500
Posted 2013-09-18 11:01:29 and read 7219 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
Besides engineering, a lot goes into marketing a good product to make it a success. Gulfstream's company culture is geared towards meeting the requirements of a few, very demanding customers. The aircraft interiors are the work of artisans.

Getting an airline to buy aircraft is based more on reliability and profitability.

Very good answer, thank you Mr. Incitatus

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: soon7x7
Posted 2013-09-18 12:10:24 and read 7038 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
I don't see the point of Gulfstream to scale up in that direction.

I think that is the only valid point here to be made. Gulfstream can produce anything they want if that is the direction they would like to venture in but when you already have cornered a niche...why try to re invent yourself.

If Boeing wanted to produce a competitive product to the Gulfstream in the VIP market...would they be able to disturb the well seated Gulfstream moniker. Might be a good product but their marketing would have to be awfully aggressive.

Embraer has actually done a nice job with the Legacy especially where the Part 135 ops go. Great reliability and a lot of aircraft for the $$. We just completed one and was very impressed with the product.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: cosyr
Posted 2013-09-18 12:18:59 and read 6986 times.

I have often thought the Silverjets and OpenSkies of the all J class transatlantic markets would have done better (I suppose OpenSkies could be making a profit where others failed) if they had used either Gulstreams or Global Express' with 8 to 10 J seats, 1 flight attendant and the exclusivity of saying you arrived on a business jet. Also might have opened up new opportunities for LGA, LCY, and who know what other small airports have never been considered for long haul flights before.

I have no hard numbers about potential profitability, but if you can price it reasonably, it has got to be easier to fill a Gulfstream than a 75/767.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-09-18 12:54:01 and read 6882 times.

Ok, I tried hard to resist, but I am into car analogies.

Gulfstream - It is a blend of Rolls Royce / Bentley with the dependability of older Toyota Land Cruisers - I would like to have said Mercedes G-series but I don't know those well.

Bombardier business jets - V12 BMW 7 series. Or Mercedes S-class, but more like BMW in many aspects  

Commercial aircraft are more utilitarian. While Mercedes makes buses, what good would do to the Bentley brand to be associated with buses?

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: queb
Posted 2013-09-18 13:01:00 and read 6848 times.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 17):
used either Gulstreams or Global Express' with 8 to 10 J seats

Bombardier has considered this possibility in 1999

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ies-global-express-airliner-50073/

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: rlwynn
Posted 2013-09-18 13:03:24 and read 6841 times.

I think they would use the Convair brand name before Gulfstream.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: MountainFlyer
Posted 2013-09-18 13:46:35 and read 6718 times.

Short answer: Yes, they could.

Long answer: Many a company has triggered their downfall by stepping outside of their core competency. I think these quotes say it best:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
Gulfstream's company culture is geared towards meeting the requirements of a few, very demanding customers.
Quoting Aesma (Reply 14):
As for the name, I'm not sure if would help sell even one airliner, however selling airliners under the same name as their bizjets could actually lose them some bizjet sales ! I mean, one of the appeals of driving a Bentley or a Ferrari is that there isn't a cheap one your employees can drive !

Boeing and Airbus have their core competency in large aircraft designed to haul lots of people or cargo at a minimal cost. Gulfstream's core competency is very high quality, luxury transportation for few people.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 18):
Ok, I tried hard to resist, but I am into car analogies.

To put it another way, think of Apple making cheap plastic phones....oh, wait...

 

(Okay, maybe not the most congruent analogy, but I had to. I digress.)

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: KELPkid
Posted 2013-09-18 13:55:15 and read 6681 times.

Most large bizjets are certified to 14 CFR Part 25 (Transport Category rules). However Gulfstreams still fall under the category of "toys" (occassional use). Gulfstream engineers would have to learn how to make systems more reliable to get the day to day dispatch reliability that airlines demand    They need to be a little more Chevy and a little less Ferrari...    A Gulfstream just isn't designed to be flying multiple legs a day for 16 hours ad nauseum.

Also, they would have to give serious attention to fuel effeciency, another area that Gulfstream has not tended to focus their efforts...

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: rampart
Posted 2013-09-18 14:30:43 and read 6559 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 10):

Actually Gulfstream has made airliners before...the original GI saw limited use a regional turboprop.

As did the Gulfstream II in a couple cases. An airline out of Denver used them, I think, can't recall the name.

Quoting rlwynn (Reply 20):

I think they would use the Convair brand name before Gulfstream.

Why?? Convair hasn't been in existence since the 1960s, and the only flying airframes are that old or older. That would be somewhat like reviving Sud-Ouest or Vickers. Important then, historically distant now.

-Rampart

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: rlwynn
Posted 2013-09-18 15:46:29 and read 6430 times.

I just think that if General Dynamics would build an airliner they would not want to use the Gulfstream brand. It is not like they would ever do it anyways so it is just as realistic that there would be a new Convair jet as there would be a Gulfstream airliner.

[Edited 2013-09-18 15:49:10]

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: WESTERN737800
Posted 2013-09-18 16:48:44 and read 6500 times.

IMO Where we need airline development is new turboprops. Only problem is airline pax want jets. There's plenty of RJs out there. Gulfstream needs to stick to what it does best, the bizjet market. Like others have said I could see them doing some more military stuff.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: rampart
Posted 2013-09-18 17:42:53 and read 6406 times.

Quoting rlwynn (Reply 24):
I just think that if General Dynamics would build an airliner they would not want to use the Gulfstream brand. It is not like they would ever do it anyways so it is just as realistic that there would be a new Convair jet as there would be a Gulfstream airliner.

I understand. Just like Bombardier created a new name for an aircraft developed from the Challenger, but don't call the airliner a Challenger. However, they do still call it a CRJ, based on the original company from which it derived (an intent from the start with the Canadair Challenger), though they haven't gone WAY back to call it the CVRJ, the Canadair Vickers Regional Jet.

Quoting WESTERN737800 (Reply 25):
Like others have said I could see them doing some more military stuff.

I think they do. It's already used for military VIP, plus some reconaissance, training, and weather research. I agree that a new turboprop of the same size range should be developed. I don't suppose a revision of the Gulfstream I would be an option?

-Rampart

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-18 19:00:51 and read 6374 times.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 17):

I have often thought the Silverjets and OpenSkies of the all J class transatlantic markets would have done better (I suppose OpenSkies could be making a profit where others failed) if they had used either Gulstreams or Global Express' with 8 to 10 J seats, 1 flight attendant and the exclusivity of saying you arrived on a business jet. Also might have opened up new opportunities for LGA, LCY, and who know what other small airports have never been considered for long haul flights before.

I have no hard numbers about potential profitability, but if you can price it reasonably, it has got to be easier to fill a Gulfstream than a 75/767.

The issue with LCY is that legacy Gulfstreams are not certified for operations out of there, so that wouldn't be an option for them. I just don't see the market for this. If there was, Bombardier would already be selling a CRJXLR, as that's essentially a Global Express refitted for RJ duty (the cabin size is exactly the same), and the CRJ is a much better candidate for this than a G550 (the CRJ has engines and wings designed for efficiency like an airline would want, not raw speed like a bizjet). The GLF5 is way too much airplane for a TATL shuttle...bear in mind we're talking about a plane that is within a few hundred nm of being capable of NYC-London-NYC without refueling.

If someone wants to run the numbers, here's the cost chart I posted in the other thread:

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 32):
Allow me to help with some numbers pulled from Business & Commercial Aviations 2013 planning guide:

Bombardier Challenger 850 (bizjet version of the CRJ2LR):
-$31.9 million purchase price
-hourly operating cost: $2,905 (fuel $2181)
-1000nm trip: $6,828 (fuel $5,125) @ 2hr 21 min

Bombardier Global 6000 (same cabin size as the CL850/CRJ2)
-$60.4 million purchase price
-hourly operating cost: $3779 (fuel $3,029)
-1000 nm trip: $7867 (fuel $6,205) @ 2hr 13
-3000 nm trip: $22,409 (fuel $17,660) @ 6 hr 20
-6000 nm trip: $47,300 (fuel $37,913) @ 12 hr 31

Airbus ACJ318
- $72 million purchase
- hourly operating $5,177 (fuel $3,787)
-1000 nm: $12,685 (fuel $9,278) @ 12 hr 27

Embraer Lineage 1000 (E-190)
-$53 million purchase
-hourly operating $4302 (fuel $3,557)
-1000 nm: $10,037 (fuel $8,300) @ 2 hr 20

Gulfstream G550
-$58 million purchase
-hourly operating $2,917 (fuel $2,289)
-1000 nm $6546 @ 2 hr 20 (fuel $5,080)
-3000 nm $18,250 @ 6 hr 42 (fuel $14,042)
-6000 nm $38,657 @ 13 hr 15 (fuel $30,334)

Note that these calculations are done with fuel @ $6.08/gallon and 800 lb (4 passenger) payloads. Also, on this list, only the Lineage and A318 are approved for LCY ops. My thought is that airlines will not be able to take much traffic off these jets by offering comparable comfort, because they will never be able to match them for time savings/productivity improvements. That's the real benefit offered by these aircraft.

As I said there, because the primary reason people fly on a bizjet is to save time, when you remove that from the equation, I don't think they'll pay the premium just to fly on a Gulfstream vs a 757 or 767.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
Getting an airline to buy aircraft is based more on reliability and profitability.

Selling Gulfstream airliners will require a large part of the company to be built from the ground up. With so many aspiring frame makers in the world, I don't see the point of Gulfstream to scale up in that direction.

The one area that Gulfstream has excelled at is product support. Yes, they serve a smaller market, but it's also a more challenging and difficult to reach market (they could be called up to help fix a G650 that is anywhere in the world). They just have to be ready to do it on a much larger scale. The fact that the airplanes will be needing service at established airports in larger markets will make it a lot easier.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: sturmovik
Posted 2013-09-18 21:56:25 and read 6175 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 22):
Gulfstream engineers would have to learn how to make systems more reliable to get the day to day dispatch reliability that airlines demand

This got me a litte curious. Gulfstream say that the 550 has a 12 month dispatch reliability of 99.87%. How do they arrive at this figure? Do they take into account lesser hours flown? On a related note, what's the airframe life typically in terms of hours/cycles for biz jets like the 450/550?

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: KELPkid
Posted 2013-09-18 22:26:53 and read 6145 times.

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 28):
On a related note, what's the airframe life typically in terms of hours/cycles for biz jets like the 450/550?

A typical bizjet (one not owned by an outfit like NetJets) probably flies 4-5 missions a month...think like a 3-4 hour flight, then sitting on the ground for a day or two while the owner/company it belongs to does its business. And I used to be a lineboy...when we got a bizjet in, it typically sat on the ramp for a day or two before departing again.

EDIT: and in between missions, it is getting a lot of TLC by its mechanics. Think Ferrari  Wink And yeah, you could probably achiveve 98.7% dispatch reliability under those conditions...

One thing Canadair (later Bomardier) found out quickly: the same APU from the Challenger was not up to the challenge of airline operaton. CRJ200's frequently dispatch with INOP APU's...  Sad

[Edited 2013-09-18 22:42:29]

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: Mir
Posted 2013-09-18 22:27:15 and read 6131 times.

Quoting g500 (Reply 3):
I would think the name GULFSTREAM would give them an edge over the competition

If I were running an airline and heard the name "Gulfstream", I'd think "there's a company that's good at making very expensive things that perform well when cared for, but don't know much about how to make an airplane that can take a beating the way an airliner needs to".

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 10):
It does not have as big of a cross section as the BBD airframe being used on the CRJs and therefore would likely have less seating capacity (ask Embraer how many of their narrower ERJ135/145s they are selling now).

The reason the ERJs aren't selling anymore has nothing to do with cabin cross-section, it's just that they're 50-seat jets (or 37-seat jets in the case of the ERJ-135) and thus they suffer from the same economics as the CRJ200s do (and you'll notice that there aren't many CRJ200s rolling off the line anymore either).

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 28):
This got me a litte curious. Gulfstream say that the 550 has a 12 month dispatch reliability of 99.87%. How do they arrive at this figure? Do they take into account lesser hours flown?

Bizjets fly far less than airliners. They also tend to have mechanics giving them a once-over far more often, which results in things that need repairing being discovered long before the aircraft is supposed to fly again, allowing for more time for the repairs to be made without affecting a trip.

-Mir

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: sturmovik
Posted 2013-09-19 01:47:46 and read 5390 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 29):
EDIT: and in between missions, it is getting a lot of TLC by its mechanics.
Quoting Mir (Reply 30):
They also tend to have mechanics giving them a once-over far more often

I get that bit, but then another interesting fact is that a lot of predictive and condition based maintenance systems were initially developed for biz jets, and during my brief exposure to those systems, I got the impression that an AOG is treated with practically the same seriousness as an airline would. These systems, mainly covering the engines and some other stuff via the central maintenance computer, were more capable than any similar tool I've seen with airlines (though I must admit my airline experience is limited to Asia). Initially I was puzzled as to why biz jets would require such systems, seeing that they get more TLC than your average airliner. I guess it boils down to the fact that these guys are willing to pay more, and that a biz jet getting stuck at an out of the way airport is way worse than an airliner getting stuck at a known station.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 29):
(one not owned by an outfit like NetJets)

How much of a difference would there be at NetJets or other similar operators (though I can't think of one with that kinda fleet size) when it comes to dispatch reliability and fleet utilization?

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: bobnwa
Posted 2013-09-19 04:11:11 and read 4783 times.

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
But could they sell airliners if they wanted to?

The question should be"would any airlines but the aircraft"? I brlieve the answer would be NO.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: RussianJet
Posted 2013-09-19 04:26:54 and read 4670 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 12):
I don´t think they have the know how to build such an aircraft. Luxury private jets, bought by customers who really don´t have an issue with costs have a different design philosophy than building an airliner.

I don't think that's really fair. It's not the case that biz-jet owners have no concerns over economics and so on. Sure it's a different sector, but operating costs, efficiency, range and so on, are still the order of the day. They clearly have the know-how, they would just need to reconsider the design priorities somewhat. They won't do it, but undoubtedly they make superb, complex, world-leading aircraft in their sector, and clearly could do it. Whether or not they could achieve scale is a completely different question though.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: xdlx
Posted 2013-09-19 04:48:57 and read 4549 times.

If they came with a G1 NEO with modern fuel efficiencies... they could get a foothold in the 19-50pax TP market.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-19 05:33:25 and read 4283 times.

Quoting Mir (Reply 30):

The reason the ERJs aren't selling anymore has nothing to do with cabin cross-section, it's just that they're 50-seat jets (or 37-seat jets in the case of the ERJ-135) and thus they suffer from the same economics as the CRJ200s do (and you'll notice that there aren't many CRJ200s rolling off the line anymore either).

The cross section limits the capacity of the airplane and your ability to stretch it. You're right that the CRJ2 isn't selling either, but its fuselage is big enough around that it's able to be stretched to make the larger sizes that are still being ordered. Embraer chose not to stretch the ERJ145's frame anymore, and instead went with the clean sheet E170/190 design, and I'm assuming that one of the many reasons why is cabin width. After all, isn't the ERJ135/145's tube the same one they used on even the TP's?

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-09-19 07:25:43 and read 3596 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 27):
As I said there, because the primary reason people fly on a bizjet is to save time, when you remove that from the equation, I don't think they'll pay the premium just to fly on a Gulfstream vs a 757 or 767

Premium-only airlines have been tried and failed.

But one could say there is a case for a 10-passenger G aircraft flying some trunk routes with considerable time savings compared to airlines - at a fraction of the cost of charting it.

JFK to LHR on an airliner - Customer shows up at the airport 5:00 pm for a 6:30 pm departure. Arrives at LHR 6:30 am, and out in the street at 7:00 am.

Teterboro to a non-commercial airport around London with customs - say Biggin Hill, on a G550 configured with 10 suites. Make the cut off time for check-in 10 minutes.

TEB to BQH on a G550: Customer shows up at the airport at 7:55 pm for an 8:10 pm departure. Savings in taxi time out, faster cruise speed, quick taxi in, and aircraft parks at 6:55 am. Five minutes for Customs and customer is out the door 7:00 am.

Total time savings 2:55 h. As good as the Concorde service! Except there are only 10 seats to sell instead of 100. I can't tell whether this is feasible in a regulatory sense, but possibly it could run as a private club.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-19 17:47:48 and read 2893 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 36):

Premium-only airlines have been tried and failed.

But one could say there is a case for a 10-passenger G aircraft flying some trunk routes with considerable time savings compared to airlines - at a fraction of the cost of charting it.

JFK to LHR on an airliner - Customer shows up at the airport 5:00 pm for a 6:30 pm departure. Arrives at LHR 6:30 am, and out in the street at 7:00 am.

Teterboro to a non-commercial airport around London with customs - say Biggin Hill, on a G550 configured with 10 suites. Make the cut off time for check-in 10 minutes.

TEB to BQH on a G550: Customer shows up at the airport at 7:55 pm for an 8:10 pm departure. Savings in taxi time out, faster cruise speed, quick taxi in, and aircraft parks at 6:55 am. Five minutes for Customs and customer is out the door 7:00 am.

Total time savings 2:55 h. As good as the Concorde service! Except there are only 10 seats to sell instead of 100. I can't tell whether this is feasible in a regulatory sense, but possibly it could run as a private club.

I don't think you could do it from TEB as an airline. Someone with more knowledge of the legalities will have to opine but if it's going to be schedule service that you sell seats on, I believe you will have to do JFK or LGA, and will have to clear TSA security. I don't know that you could fit 10 lie-flat J seats on a G550. Also, keep in mind that an airline style operation won't take advantage of the G550's high speed cruise. The 30 minutes you'll probably save (I'm guestimating here) won't be worth the extra fuel cost. Embraer's offerings are probably the best choice, ironically. The Legacy 650 and Lineage 1000 offer range in the sweet spot for the TATL, the Lineage could more easily fit 10 J seats, both are certified for LCY operations, both are already used to the strain of airliner work, Embraer is already used to working with airlines, both are dramatically cheaper than a G550 to buy, and both are engineered for the sort of slow but efficient flying that airlines like.

Not surprisingly, the airplane that is purposed designed to be a bizjet offers more of what bizjet customers want (high performance, long range, good runway runs) and the airplanes that were designed as airliners offer more of the qualities that an airline looks for (efficient people hauling).

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-09-19 20:09:45 and read 2779 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 37):
I don't know that you could fit 10 lie-flat J seats on a G550

The cabin is seven feet wide. That is plenty for a two feet aisle and 2.5 feet wide seating, which is quite generous. The whole cabin 43 ft long. Five 6.5-foot seats take up 32.5 feet, so there is some room left for galley and lav.

G550s are very large.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 37):
The Legacy 650 and Lineage 1000 offer range in the sweet spot for the TATL, the Lineage could more easily fit 10 J seats, both are certified for LCY operations,

The Lineage 1000 has an eight feet wide cabin enough to fit 14 seats. Or there could be 12 seats and a shower, which I think the G cannot have.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 37):
The 30 minutes you'll probably save (I'm guestimating here) won't be worth the extra fuel cost.

The time savings can come from ATC as well. Higher cruise could be used to help hit arrival time when needed.

But indeed, flying from secondary airports as an airline may be nearly impossible.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: flyby519
Posted 2013-09-19 20:20:11 and read 2754 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 37):
I believe you will have to do JFK or LGA, and will have to clear TSA security.

Yes, if it is under the scheduled airline service section of the FAA Part 121 rules you would need TSA, but that isn't necessarily a deal breaker. If you could get a small checkpoint set up at the JFK General Aviation FBO then it would be fine. The reason TSA is a pain is due to the long lines, crowds, shouting, noise. Something on a small scale like the LGA Marine Air Terminal is very civilized.

The roadblock comes when traveling westbound and needing to clear customs in JFK since LGA doesn't have FIS. Any way to bypass the madness of T4?

[Edited 2013-09-19 20:28:39]

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: mcoflyer
Posted 2013-09-19 22:04:11 and read 2642 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 35):

Yes the E120 and E145 share the same fuselage.

KH

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-20 17:24:22 and read 2344 times.

Allright so I'll try to sum up my thoughts on this:

Could Gulfstream do it? When looked at in a vaccum, possibly. They are a very talented company engineering wise, and their parent company, General Dynamics, has very deep pockets. However, one has to consider the competition they would be up against.

1.) the sort of service hypothetically being suggested for NYC to London sort of already exists in the form of BA's A318 service between JFK and LCY. Gulfstream would have to certify a G550 or G650 for LCY operations. Otherwise, the fact that they would have to use a further out airport from London and clear customs at JFK would likely mean that any performance advantage in flight that the Gulfstream has would not equal a total time savings. For a point of reference, the BCA Operations planning guide gives the G550 a 12 minute advantage over an ACJ319 on a 3000 nm mission (6hr 42 vs 6 hr 54). Not sure that even if you give them another 10 minutes for more direct routing (higher cruise altitude) that they could offset the distance from London factor or the time lost in customs, especially on the eastbound flight. A G650 would be a bit better, as it has a better 6 hr 18 minute flight time with only a 4% increase in fuel costs for the aforementioned 3000 nm trip.

2.) The $60 million list price of a G550 has to be considered as well. You could buy two Embraer Legacy 650s for the same price. The Lineage's list price is about $6 million less than the G550, and I'm sure Embraer is far more willing to wheel and deal with airlines for a bulk purchase discount. Not only that, but I would imagine the depreciation hit would be far higher on the Gulfstream. I don't see much used market value for a G550 that has been through the rigors of airline service, especially with no shortage of used low time bizjet variants available, whereas the Embraers, even if they don't have much demand on the second hand market, still are worth quite a lot in parts considering the size of the fleets still in operation.

3.) Aside from their price advantage, the Embraer's are a better match for this sort of mission. Their range is in the mix of what you'd need, they're designed for airline operations, they have much more flexibility and usefulness in an airline fleet (where else would an airline use G550's except for a route like this?), they're cheaper to buy, have lower depreciation, lower per seat operating costs, and can use LCY. The fact that an airplane better suited to the mission already exists and is not in use for it tells me there probably isn't demand for it.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: queb
Posted 2013-09-20 17:48:44 and read 2307 times.

1. Aircraft with BR700 engines can't be certified at LCY anyway (noise limitations)

2. A commercial G650 would not have the same level of luxury inside so it would be much cheaper (airlines style completion).

3. E190 max range from LCY is 800 nm

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-20 18:35:30 and read 2248 times.

Quoting queb (Reply 42):
1. Aircraft with BR700 engines can't be certified at LCY anyway (noise limitations)

2. A commercial G650 would not have the same level of luxury inside so it would be much cheaper (airlines style completion).

3. E190 max range from LCY is 800 nm

I had a feeling it was a noise issue. Also note the prices I quoted for the Embraers were for the bizjet variants so presumably those prices would go down as well. I was assuming the Lineage (and Legacy 650) would have to do what the A318's do and go to SNN. I was under the impression that only the Dassault Falcons could do non stop tatl from LCY.

[Edited 2013-09-20 18:39:11]

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: incitatus
Posted 2013-09-20 19:36:53 and read 2192 times.

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 41):
The fact that an airplane better suited to the mission already exists and is not in use for it tells me there probably isn't demand for it.

The single biggest disadvantage of the Lineage is the cruise speed. But it can take some 30 business-class type seats.

Every new line of business faces the risk that demand does not materialize. Demand might be there, but the regulatory risk is also considerable.

As for the BA service, a couple of handicaps. A stop in SNN westbound, relatively slow cruise speed, and a major congested airport on the NY side. On the other hand, the BA brand and penetration in corporate sales make the service viable.

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: queb
Posted 2013-09-20 20:13:15 and read 2154 times.

Seriously, the CS100 is the better suited aircraft for LCY (at least four customers already planning to use the CS100 on short runways):

1. quieter engines
2. better fuel consumption
3. No weight and range limitations (in full business 32-40 seats config)
4. No cargo space limitations (unlike Lineage 1000 with auxiliary fuel tanks in the cargo hold)

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: tjh8402
Posted 2013-09-20 20:34:35 and read 2116 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 44):
The single biggest disadvantage of the Lineage is the cruise speed. But it can take some 30 business-class type seats.

Every new line of business faces the risk that demand does not materialize. Demand might be there, but the regulatory risk is also considerable.

As for the BA service, a couple of handicaps. A stop in SNN westbound, relatively slow cruise speed, and a major congested airport on the NY side. On the other hand, the BA brand and penetration in corporate sales make the service viable.

My BCA planning guide only gives a 1000 nm block time for the Lineage, not a 3000, but its time for the 1000 nm is the same as a G550 @ 2hrs 20 minutes. Its quicker to 1000 nm than the BBJ (2hr 27) and ACJ319 (2h 26) which are, respectively, 13 and 12 minutes behind the G5500 on a 3000 nm trip. How much time does using LCY save you over LHR, LGW, or whatever airport this hypothetical Gulfstream service would operate from? How much time does the diversion to SNN add to the A318's trip and how much quicker is customs there vs JFK?

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: Max Q
Posted 2013-09-20 22:38:47 and read 2009 times.

They already did, it was called the G1 !

Topic: RE: Could Gulfstream Sell Airliners If They Wanted To?
Username: rampart
Posted 2013-09-21 04:46:42 and read 1854 times.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 38):
But indeed, flying from secondary airports as an airline may be nearly impossible.

Ultimate Air continues to fly MMU (Morristown, NJ, suburban New York City) to LUK (downtown Cincinnati), I think as public scheduled charters, advertised as a "VIP Shuttle". I think they have been in business several years now, haven't heard how well they're doing, but the longevity, and expansion to MDW and CLT from LUK seems to bode well.

They use Dornier 328 Jets. Seating 30, I don't believe the roominess is particularly different from a normal airliner, but onboard service and utilizing FBOs for terminals at the various airports provides the "VIP" treatment.

-Rampart


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