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Topic: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: wilco737
Posted 2013-09-19 23:09:47 and read 25232 times.

Part 1 available here:

Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 1 (by behramjee Sep 19 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Please continue your discussion here.

Thanks.

wilco737
  

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-20 02:39:45 and read 24650 times.

I have read there were still minor issues with the engines that must be resolved. I take it the details are about the maintenance on the engines which LH-Technik would gladly do herself. Is this maybe a comparable situation as we have seen at AF-KLM for the maintenance on the Rolls-Rocye engines which come automatically when ordering the A350? That delayed the firming up of that order for quite a while.

And in this case at LH the GE9 and the Trent-XWB are playing a big role. Has anybody heard something about the details of this part of the order?

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-20 03:24:17 and read 24452 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 1):
And in this case at LH the GE9 and the Trent-XWB are playing a big role. Has anybody heard something about the details of this part of the order?

Both GE and RR have issued press releases noting LH have selected their respective engines:

GE - http://www.geaviation.com/press/ge90/ge90_20130919.html
RR - http://www.rolls-royce.com/news/pres.../2013/19092013_power_lufthansa.jsp

The RR release notes that the engines will come with TotalCare.

Lufthansa Technik is a line maintenance service provider for the GE90 family of engines.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-20 03:46:31 and read 24299 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Both GE and RR have issued press releases noting LH have selected their respective engines:

Thanks for the (as always) informative reply Stitch.   I must have missed these links.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-20 03:58:48 and read 24215 times.

Yes TotalCare, meaning RR will do the engine management and maintenance and other stuff.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 1):
Is this maybe a comparable situation as we have seen at AF-KLM for the maintenance on the Rolls-Rocye engines which come automatically when ordering the A350? That delayed the firming up of that order for quite a while.

One of Air France strategies to become profitable again is to "seek further 3rd party work especially in area of engine overhauls for AF Industries". Therefore engine maintenance was a very important package of the deal. This is different for Lufthansa.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: queb
Posted 2013-09-20 04:13:58 and read 24105 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 4):
Yes TotalCare, meaning RR will do the engine management and maintenance and other stuff.

Yes and no, I think Lufthansa Technik is a Totalcare approved provider.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: StTim
Posted 2013-09-20 04:19:26 and read 24059 times.

In the press release

"Rolls-Royce is also a joint-venture partner with Lufthansa Technik AG in the N3 Engine Overhaul Services maintenance business."

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-20 04:19:45 and read 24068 times.

Good point. In that case, engine discussions should be pretty straightforward.

BTW if people want high-res screenshots of the new jets: go to http://mediabase.lufthansa.com/fra_ci_presse/EntryAction.do select "New long haul fleet" in the menu and go to page two.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Luxair
Posted 2013-09-20 05:27:49 and read 23683 times.

Congrats to Lufti, still my favourite airline out there! Nice to see that they keep splitting their orders between A & B! Btw, I hope/wish that they keep their 748 as long as possible! Can't wait to book a flight on the mighty Queen!

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: kaitak
Posted 2013-09-20 05:46:49 and read 23554 times.

Before this order, B777 sales stood at 1,467; this order now pushed them over the 1,500 mark!

Only 27 to go to equal the 747 as the most successful widebody ever.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-20 06:32:25 and read 23252 times.

Quoting Luxair (Reply 8):
I hope/wish that they keep their 748 as long as possible! Can't wait to book a flight on the mighty Queen!

LH has a strong tradition to fly long with their birds which they maintain in an excellent, exemplary way. The B748 will easily fly until 2030 to 2035 at LH. And as a fan of 4-hopers that pleases me.  . Even though the trend towards large twins is just confirmed by LH with this important order.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: CX747
Posted 2013-09-20 08:32:17 and read 22247 times.

It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe" and 777s will be operating on Lufthansa's behalf. May this be the start of a wonderful trend. One has to wonder what effect this will have on the 747-8Is ability to garner future orders with Lufthansa.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: StTim
Posted 2013-09-20 08:40:28 and read 22143 times.

I suspect the 779 purchase by LH means less likelihood of additional 748 sales.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-20 08:41:08 and read 22133 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 14):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe" and 777s will be operating on Lufthansa's behalf.

There was nothing to crack IMO, Lufthansa and Boeing are partners since a very long time. Lufthansa was even the launch customer of the 747-8i.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-20 08:42:49 and read 22112 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 14):
Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe"

Boeing has always sold many aircraft in Europe, but feels the competition form Airbus of course. LH as a launch customer of the B748i and now the B777-9, while still operating a very large B744 fleet, has nothing to do with "Fortress Europe". Also AF, launch customer of the B77W and operating a large fleet of them, is for sure no "Fortress Europe". Let alone KLM or BA.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: earlynff
Posted 2013-09-20 08:48:14 and read 22049 times.

from part one #162:

quoting Boeing747_600:


"They'll have to make a whole mess of 744 pilots go through conversion training for the 779s or else hire expat pilots."


I guess you have not the slightest idea about that business. Lufthansa is engaged in that since long before your existance!
It will be business as usual, a non-issue.

Btw, Lufthansa is breeding the majority of their pilots in a cadet scheme "ab initio", very successfully. New pilots jump into r/h seats of airliners, with around 250-300 hours, since more than half a century. They know that whole business well enough!

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: col
Posted 2013-09-20 09:41:33 and read 21428 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 14):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe" and 777s will be operating on Lufthansa's behalf. May this be the start of a wonderful trend. One has to wonder what effect this will have on the 747-8Is ability to garner future orders with Lufthansa.

Yes, it is truly amazing that Boeing have placed an airliner in Europe and the first customer is LH, bad choice of words I think!!

I think the total number of 747-8i at LH will be 19. Boeing have just done too good a job of 777 derivatives.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: blueshamu330s
Posted 2013-09-20 10:30:58 and read 21133 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 14):
One has to wonder what effect this will have on the 747-8Is ability to garner future orders with Lufthansa.

Absolutely, positively zero.

Rgds

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-09-20 10:57:51 and read 20849 times.

I don't know if anyone mentioned it before, but FlightGlobal has detailed article regarding Lufthansa's purchase deal.

Key points:

- 777-9X is to replace all 747-400s
- A350-900 to replace all A340-300s
- A340-600 to remain in Lufthansa fleet until retirement, as they will be 100% owned by the time delivery of new twins is completed,
- Lufthansa Technik will set up maintenance base for GE9X as a part of joint venture with GE
- both 777s and A350s will have two- and three-class cabin configuration.

http://www.flightglobal.com/fg-club/in-focus/lufthansa-widebody-order/

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-20 11:03:45 and read 20785 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 34):
Key points:

Thanks. So this means they have yet to choose a replacement for the A340-600. This might explain the conversion rights for the larger A350-1000 and the smaller 777-8. Then our A346 replacement theory was not entirely correct.

[Edited 2013-09-20 11:21:12]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-20 11:47:06 and read 20384 times.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 34):
- 777-9X is to replace all 747-400s

LH has 9 744s that will be at least 25 years old in 2017. D-ABVA was retired after 23 years and it still had over 100k flight hours. I personally have a hard time seeing these aircraft lasting until 777-9x EIS especially as LH has 19 748s and A380s entering service in the next couple of years to replace them. Is LH going to start flying 747s differently than they have in the past? Fly them part time?

There are only 13 747s that I can see being replaced by 777-9x and even then they will be at least 23 years old.

I believe LH's oldest A346 is only 10 years old. They do have a lot of life in them. On a side note; why did Lufthansa receive new A346 in 2009! Wow. Even if purchase price is 25% of the cost of ownership, that has to be viewed as a mistake.

Doesn't it make you wonder why LH ordered 34 777-9x then?

I thought LH had only 30 747s a couple years ago and now they have 22, are my numbers incorrect? How have they taken possession of 19 A380s and 748s and only retired 8 747s? Thanks.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: LH707330
Posted 2013-09-20 12:21:56 and read 19938 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 37):
I believe LH's oldest A346 is only 10 years old. They do have a lot of life in them. On a side note; why did Lufthansa receive new A346 in 2009! Wow. Even if purchase price is 25% of the cost of ownership, that has to be viewed as a mistake.

They got those as a top-up. When they ran the numbers, they decided that the new 2006+ HGW frames would be better for their fleet than a small sub-fleet of 77Ws.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-09-20 12:26:26 and read 19891 times.

If the 779s are meant to replace the 744, what are the 748s and 388s being bought for? By the time of 779 EIS, only 13 744 will be left anymore.
The 779 is meant to replace the B744 AND A346. You just have to look up the slides of the press conference. On slide 6 you can see that MUC-BKK is supposed to change from 346 to 779 after 2020.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: bobmuc
Posted 2013-09-20 14:42:30 and read 18576 times.

Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 40):
The 779 is meant to replace the B744 AND A346. You just have to look up the slides of the press conference. On slide 6 you can see that MUC-BKK is supposed to change from 346 to 779 after 2020.

Yes, BUT see the flightglobal articel in reply 34 in addition and my following comment from thread #1:

A346 will be replaced by 779 and A359 -> or the A346 will stay longer in the fleet if the growth is more like 5%, but in the long term, YES. (Comment from Mr. Spohr).

I'm sure, that LH knows how and where to use the A346 in the right way to make money with them. High cycles, many flight hours, good maintenance, etc., etc.
They are not in a rush to get rid off them.
LH statement was clear: prio 1 is the replacement of A343 and B744!

Sorry, I have to defend my favorite aircraft a little bit.  
I hope I will see them flying out of MUC for a couple more years (> 10 years).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-20 14:58:02 and read 18453 times.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 39):
They got those as a top-up. When they ran the numbers, they decided that the new 2006+ HGW frames would be better for their fleet than a small sub-fleet of 77Ws.

Must have got a great deal. If you think about it the fuel burn higher on the A346, for sure, but there is significant savings in maintenance. LH must have took into account their variable cost of just having to service some extra frames themselves which is certainly cheaper than sending out for the work. I trust that it makes sense because they seem like smart guys but it sure is odd.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 36):
So this means they have yet to choose a replacement for the A340-600.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 37):
Doesn't it make you wonder why LH ordered 34 777-9x then?
Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 40):
The 779 is meant to replace the B744 AND A346.

OK, I just read through the article again. Here is a contradictory quote

>" the larger -600s are to continue operating “for a long time” as the aircraft will have been paid for but will not have reached retirement age when the new types arrive, says Spohr."
>"The 59 firm orders are to replace 54 ageing A340s and 747s, says Spohr.".

To me that means 24 A343s, 24 A346s, and 6 744s (Vintage 1999 and younger). Spohr must have meant that the 779 would replace the 6-747s first and then start working on replacing A346s afterward. Assuming 4 in 2020 and 6 2021-2025 the oldest A346s would be 19 years old by the time that happens which is certainly a very respectable amount of time and it gives them some wiggle room if Boeing is late (not a bad idea). They could even start with the youngest ones and send them to LX or another partner for ~8 years if necessary.

It does not appear to be a clear message though. I don't see how they can use 34 779s if they aren't replacing A346s.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: HBGDS
Posted 2013-09-20 16:24:18 and read 18455 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe"

I think they cracked it long ago when AF acquired 777s and became one of the largest operators for a while. An AF test pilot told me back in the late 90s that he saw no future for quads and that the 777 was clearly "da best" in its category.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-20 17:19:32 and read 18265 times.

Common sense says that some of the 34 777-9s will be used to replace some of the 24 A340-600s EVENTUALLY.

LH's priority before 2025 is to retire their entire 747-400 and A340-300 fleet as those are the two least fuel-efficient models in their fleet (the 747-400 consumes 4.2 liters per 100 passenger kilometers and the A340-300 is at least that, if not higher). But the A340-600 is #3 on that list (4.1 liters consumed per 100 passenger kilometers) so once the A340-300 and 747-400 are gone, LH will want to start phasing out the A340-600s.



LH has 24 A340-300s so the 25 A350-900s are a 1:1 replacement for that fleet.


LH has 22 747-400s in service with 7 in storage. They also have 10 A340-600LGWs and 14 A340-600HGWs. That is a total of 53 frames that need to be replaced.

LH is still to take delivery of 10 747-8s and 7 A380-800s. Subtract 17 from 53 and you get 36. LH will convert 2 of their A380-800 options to orders.

That gets you to 34 frames needing to be replaced.

LH ordered 34 777-9s.

  

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2013-09-20 17:20:54 and read 18529 times.

By the way, I still stand by my view that we may see a good number of long-distance flights using the A350XWB-900 out of Berlin Brandenberg. Remember, Berlin is now the capitol of Germany, and people going to the capitol on governmental business might not want to have to change planes at FRA or MUC flying LH on intercontinental flights. FRA and MUC will continue to support larger airliners, since Frankfurt is the financial center of Germany and Munich is a major financial and manufacturing center.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-20 17:39:20 and read 18409 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
LH has 22 747-400s in service with 7 in storage.

I thought they only had 22 747s. I even checked the World Airline Census for 2012 and it doesn't reflect the 29 either. The extra seven push everything back at least a year and it makes more sense.

However, when LH says they will receive all of their aircraft by 2025 and when a decent amount of A346s were received in late 2000's the eventually to which you refer 'may' still come before these frames are 20 years old unless they wish to grow.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: earlynff
Posted 2013-09-20 17:39:57 and read 18422 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 27):
Remember, Berlin is now the capitol of Germany, and people going to the capitol on governmental business might not want to have to change planes at FRA or MUC

For that purpose A318LR would suffice...

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-20 20:13:08 and read 17734 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
thought they only had 22 747s. I even checked the World Airline Census for 2012 and it doesn't reflect the 29 either. The extra seven push everything back at least a year and it makes more sense.

airfleets.net says they have 22 in service and 7 in storage. They also sent one to Condor and one to Kalitta.



Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
However, when LH says they will receive all of their aircraft by 2025 and when a decent amount of A346s were received in late 2000's the eventually to which you refer 'may' still come before these frames are 20 years old unless they wish to grow.

I expect the 10 A340-600LGWs to go first as they're the oldest. Then they would start on the newer (2006-onwards) A340-600HGWs.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: scbriml
Posted 2013-09-20 23:56:03 and read 16928 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe"

"Fortress Europe"?    You do realise Boeing has sold over 5,000 planes to "Fortress Europe"?

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
One has to wonder what effect this will have on the 747-8Is ability to garner future orders with Lufthansa.

There are two chances for more 748i sales at LH - slim and none. Slim just rode out of town.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Scipio
Posted 2013-09-21 00:29:55 and read 16766 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
LH has 24 A340-300s so the 25 A350-900s are a 1:1 replacement for that fleet.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
LH ordered 34 777-9s.

What about the 1-5% per annum expansion that Lufthansa is aiming for?
This means that, by 2025, they want to have between 13 (1% per annum) and 80 percent (5% per annum) more seats than now.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: BlueSky1976
Posted 2013-09-21 00:32:58 and read 16777 times.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 31):

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
One has to wonder what effect this will have on the 747-8Is ability to garner future orders with Lufthansa.

There are two chances for more 748i sales at LH - slim and none. Slim just rode out of town.

There was a rumour going around some time ago that Lufthansa may not take all 19 747-8is and may convert last 4 frames to 777-9X instead. It was never confirmed nor denied officially, so I'd watch this space very closely.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-21 01:11:38 and read 16662 times.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 32):
What about the 1-5% per annum expansion that Lufthansa is aiming for?

I would imagine that is what the options and purchase rights are for.  

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: chiad
Posted 2013-09-21 01:36:27 and read 16559 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe"

"Every" major and minor European Airlines has been using Boeing Aircrafts since before Airbus was born.
It's most likely to continue except that Airbus' shares of the European market might grow a little more.

If there ever was a fortress Europe widebody wise it belonged to Boeing, but it was "cracked" naturally because Europe got a manufacture that started to produce widebodies.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: seahawk
Posted 2013-09-21 03:34:21 and read 16235 times.

Especially LH was never a fortress for Boeing. LH was pushing for the 737, they ordered the 748i, the 707, 747. 727. 737, 757/767, 777 (for Swiss and LH Cargo).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-09-21 04:03:45 and read 16099 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe"

Interesting statement in many regards, seeing as LH is the only significant 747-8i customer already, AF has one of the biggest 777 fleets in the world, BA was a very loyal Boeing customer for many years (an airline that Airbus still had to crack when they had already sold tons of planes in the US), etc.

Quoting chiad (Reply 35):
If there ever was a fortress Europe widebody wise it belonged to Boeing, but it was "cracked" naturally because Europe got a manufacture that started to produce widebodies.

  
If there are two manufacturers making comparable products, you would naturally expect both manufacturers to have roughly the same presence in every geographical region. The two large exceptions to this rule that I can think of are Russia - mostly for political and cost reasons - and Japan.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
Common sense says that some of the 34 777-9s will be used to replace some of the 24 A340-600s EVENTUALLY.

LH's priority before 2025 is to retire their entire 747-400 and A340-300 fleet as those are the two least fuel-efficient models in their fleet

  
In that context, it's also worth bearing in mind that the A350-900 will start arriving in 2016, so LH can start replacing the A340-300 in particular - with some 747-400 already getting replaced by 747-8i and A380 before the first 777X arrives around 2020.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: bjorn14
Posted 2013-09-21 04:22:35 and read 15995 times.

I Wonder if any of these 359s are or can be converted to 'R' models?

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: anfromme
Posted 2013-09-21 04:28:41 and read 15981 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 38):
I Wonder if any of these 359s are or can be converted to 'R' models?

As LH even have flexibility to convert part of the A350-900 order to A350-1000, I'm sure they would have flexibility to change the particular variant of -900 as well, once such an additional subtype is officially offered.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2013-09-21 04:48:17 and read 15909 times.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 11):
It is amazing to see that Boeing cracked "Fortress Europe" and 777s will be operating on Lufthansa's behalf. May this be the start of a wonderful trend.

What on earth are you talking about? You should do a little fact-checking.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 37):
Interesting statement in many regards, seeing as LH is the only significant 747-8i customer already, AF has one of the biggest 777 fleets in the world, BA was a very loyal Boeing customer for many years

  
AF, AZ, LH, BA, KL, LO all have recent Boeing wide-body fleets (748, 77x, 78x).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-09-21 04:58:40 and read 15839 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 20):
There are only 13 747s that I can see being replaced by 777-9x and even then they will be at least 23 years old.

The older 744s will go as 748 enter service. That meaqns by 2015/16 latest there will be 13 744s, the youngest ones, left in the fleet. these will be likely replaced 1 for 1 once the 779 enters service. Which other aircraft will be replaced thereafter by the 779 remains to be seen.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 27):
By the way, I still stand by my view that we may see a good number of long-distance flights using the A350XWB-900 out of Berlin Brandenberg

Not only me will bet against that. BBI will not play a big role in LH other than a feeder for MUC anmd FRA and direct serices which Germanwings run. BER-IAD will rather be operated by UA than LH.

Two things, LH has been a loyal Boeing customer since 1960 with the introduction of the first 707. To be precise, it was March 17, 1960. Many of us here can rest assured that they won't see the end of Boeing jetliners in the LH fleet in their life times.

The other point is flexibility which runs like a red line through the years and is paramount to the way the company is run. We have just witnessed a decision that will influence the companies fate for the next 3 decades at least. A purchase has been made now but how these planes will be used will depend on the ma market conditions when they join the fleet.

LH is often accused in the German press for having an "old" fleet with an average age of over 11 years. We know that this is rubbish. Older aircraft are fully owned and earned the money to pay for new aircraft on top of the depreciation., This also answers the question of which part of the fleet the 779 will replace once the 744s are retired.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-21 05:05:55 and read 15826 times.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 32):
What about the 1-5% per annum expansion that Lufthansa is aiming for?

Every time an A380 or a 747-8i replaces a 747-4 capacity goes up by as little as 10% (748i high premium layout) or as much as 60% (A380 vs high premium 744). Also the A359 should be able to seat at least 15% more capacity when those are swapped out as well. If it wasn't for their plan on introducing Economy plus and the rollout of the new J seat, I actually could see an increase of 1% being very conservative.

Plus, the options will assure them as much growth as they can handle. Its going to be a fun fleet to fly. Jealous.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: RedChili
Posted 2013-09-21 06:50:04 and read 15499 times.

I'm really baffled by the "death of the VLA" debate which was going on in the previous thread.

The term VLA has generally been used to describe airplanes the size of a 747 and bigger.

Based on the graphics provided in the LH PDF file, it appears that the 779 with LH will have more seats than the 744 has today. That would surely mean that the 779 will be a VLA. Which means:

Today, LH has the following number of VLAs:
388: 10
748: 9
744: 22
Total: 41

By 2025, LH will have:
388: 19
748: 19
779: 34
Total: 72

And that is assuming that no more options will be converted.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-21 08:37:12 and read 15108 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):
Based on the graphics provided in the LH PDF file, it appears that the 779 with LH will have more seats than the 744 has today.

The conventional definition of VLA basically was either the 747 or A388. You are quite right in concluding that for all practical purposes the 779 will be a VLA. There are a lot of people who consider that only 4 engined aircraft qualify as VLA's, ane the A346 didn't quite qualify. But I do not think there will ever be another new 4 engine aircraft, so if that is the case, the VLA as some people think of it is an endangered species. I think a better definition would be one with over 400 passengers, in which case it is alive and well and thriving.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-21 08:58:37 and read 15024 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):

I think many believe there will be less 747s and A380s in service 10 years from now than there were five years ago: BA (~57 747s), KE (~49), UA (~44), ANA (~24), JAL (~44 but over 100 at one point), CX (~30), and SQ (~59) are excellent examples of airlines that had large 747 fleets and will almost certainly have significantly less 747s and A380s in the future.

Use VLA or whatever name you like to define this group of very large airliners but the direction, at least to me, is pretty clear.

However, I would say that calling for their death is premature. Unless you are talking about the 748i  .

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: BigJKU
Posted 2013-09-21 09:51:31 and read 14847 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):
I'm really baffled by the "death of the VLA" debate which was going on in the previous thread.

The term VLA has generally been used to describe airplanes the size of a 747 and bigger.

Based on the graphics provided in the LH PDF file, it appears that the 779 with LH will have more seats than the 744 has today. That would surely mean that the 779 will be a VLA. Which means:

VLA in this context means Quad for the most part.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: bmacleod
Posted 2013-09-21 10:44:50 and read 14708 times.

This is very ironic since LH launched the 747-8i...

Looks more and more like the death knell for the 747-8i unless CA and AI see a need for them.

CX has indicated the 77W is as big as they'll ever need for their restructured market...

Any other ray of hope for the 747-8i?

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-09-21 11:01:24 and read 14621 times.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):
I'm really baffled by the "death of the VLA" debate which was going on in the previous thread.

It was a bit odd, given that LH are still receiving "VLA"'s and will continue to do so for some years yet.

It seems clear to me that the 777-9X's are not replacing 747-8's and A380's, but 747-400's and a340-600's.
Which is an entirely sensible and appropriate market for the 777-9X

The 777-9X will fly alongside the 747-8's and A380's for some time yet.
Can we completely rule out LH ordering A380's in future (e.g A389's in the mid-to late 20's?) to fly alongside the 777-9X's?

rgds

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-21 11:06:14 and read 14582 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 38):
I Wonder if any of these 359s are or can be converted to 'R' models?

I doubt it, the de-rated A359 will have the same MTOW and range as the 787-10.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 44):
I think a better definition would be one with over 400 passengers, in which case it is alive and well and thriving.

An 77W can seat 500 pax, does this make it a VLA too?

As for the 779, Boeing itself says it's not a VLA.

[Edited 2013-09-21 11:08:27]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: finn350
Posted 2013-09-21 11:17:12 and read 14537 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 49):
I doubt it, the de-rated A359 will have the same MTOW and range as the 787-10.

There are two different A359 derivatives suggested by Airbus:
- A359-900R, the ultra long haul model, one of the original variants announced when A350 XWB was conceived
- A359-900 Regional, the de-rated A350-900 version that has recently been suggested as a competitor to B787-10. It would be competetive because it has cheaper acquisition price than "plain vanilla" A350-900

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: queb
Posted 2013-09-21 11:31:38 and read 14488 times.

the -900R is not launched yet, only the "regional" (7000nm) and the std -900 (8100 nm).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-21 11:35:45 and read 14573 times.

Quoting finn350 (Reply 50):
There are two different A359 derivatives suggested by Airbus:

Sorry, I read "A359 R" as "A359 Regional" so I interpreted the question as "will LH take de-rated A350s". The answer to that question is no, because it will have the same range and MTOW as the 787-10.

Quoting finn350 (Reply 50):
- A359-900R, the ultra long haul model, one of the original variants announced when A350 XWB was conceived

The A359-900R has not been launched yet, and Lufthansa doesn't need a plane with a range of 10,000nm. Even not for freight.

Quoting finn350 (Reply 50):
- A359-900 Regional, the de-rated A350-900 version that has recently been suggested as a competitor to B787-10. It would be competetive because it has cheaper acquisition price than "plain vanilla" A350-900

The A330 has around around 10 different MTOW versions. Don't be surprised to see more different A350 versions too. The term "Regional" is also a bit silly, because it's just an option.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: finn350
Posted 2013-09-21 11:38:04 and read 14546 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 52):
The A359-900R has not been launched yet, and Lufthansa doesn't need a plane with a range of 10,000nm. Even not for freight.

Yes, and it might be very well be that A350-900R is never launched. There simply might not be enough demand for it.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: UA772IAD
Posted 2013-09-21 12:26:45 and read 14415 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 27):
emember, Berlin is now the capitol of Germany, and people going to the capitol on governmental business might not want to have to change planes at FRA or MUC flying LH on intercontinental flights. FRA and MUC will continue to support larger airliners, since Frankfurt is the financial center of Germany and Munich is a major financial and manufacturing center.

As for Intra-Europe, Berlin is pretty well connected to your usual list of destinations, LHR, CDG, AMS, etc. There are also rail and road options as well.

As for international traffic, you said it yourself: FRA being a commerce hub for Germany and Europe, and MUC as a financial/industrial center, the demand is there.

Perhaps UA will launch EWR/IAD-Berlin with a 757 someday, if necessary as part of the JV with LH. DUS will see more intercontinental action from LH before Berlin, IMO.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-21 12:27:38 and read 14430 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 45):

I think many believe there will be less 747s and A380s in service 10 years from now than there were five years ago: BA (~57 747s), KE (~49), UA (~44), ANA (~24), JAL (~44 but over 100 at one point), CX (~30), and SQ (~59) are excellent examples of airlines that had large 747 fleets and will almost certainly have significantly less 747s and A380s in the future.

Use VLA or whatever name you like to define this group of very large airliners but the direction, at least to me, is pretty clear.

However, I would say that calling for their death is premature. Unless you are talking about the 748i .

This describes my feelings pretty well. Though I am not sure the 748i is in the dustbin yet. I could see a trickle of orders for specific operators. I wouldn't bet on it you understand, but I'm not ready to write it off.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-21 12:35:07 and read 14378 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 49):
An 77W can seat 500 pax, does this make it a VLA too?

As for the 779, Boeing itself says it's not a VLA.

Does Boeing have exclusive rights to define the term? In my mind the 77W qualifies anyway. Right now VLA is a nebulous term; the only agreement seems to be that it includes the A380 and 747. And it seems there is a lot of sentiment towards keeping it an exclusive club for just those two members (I do not foresee another 4-engine airliner in the conceivable future). But as the 747 is definitely on its way out, that leaves just the A380, and the simple fact is that the 779 is going to steal substantial sales from the A380, and hence is a competitor whether or not people want to acknowledge the fact. So not calling it a VLA is just silly, IMHO.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Scipio
Posted 2013-09-21 12:36:34 and read 14431 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 52):
The answer to that question is no, because it will have the same range and MTOW as the 787-10.

I'm not following you here. Lufthansa opted against the 787 family, because the 787-8 and 787-9 are too small and the 787-10 does not offer enough range. However, deciding on a subfleet of aircraft that are essentially the same (apart from paperwork) as others you already have in your fleet is a completely different kind of decision than deciding on whether you want to add an aircraft family to your fleet.

Having made the basic decision to add the A350 family to its fleet, Lufthansa may very well opt for a range of members of this family (including the A350R, A350 Regional, A350-1000, and A350F).

Just like it has opted for the 77W for Swiss, the 77F for Lufthansa Cargo, and the 779 for its mainline operations...

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-21 12:59:05 and read 14324 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 56):
Does Boeing have exclusive rights to define the term? In my mind the 77W qualifies anyway. Right now VLA is a nebulous term; the only agreement seems to be that it includes the A380 and 747. And it seems there is a lot of sentiment towards keeping it an exclusive club for just those two members (I do not foresee another 4-engine airliner in the conceivable future). But as the 747 is definitely on its way out, that leaves just the A380, and the simple fact is that the 779 is going to steal substantial sales from the A380, and hence is a competitor whether or not people want to acknowledge the fact. So not calling it a VLA is just silly, IMHO.

I'm just saying what the aircraft manufacturer said. In my opinion, VLA is just another marketing term.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 57):
I'm not following you here.

Fair enough.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-09-21 13:44:45 and read 14214 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
airfleets.net says they have 22 in service and 7 in storage. They also sent one to Condor and one to Kalitta.

I prefer http://www.lh-taufnamen.de/, this site more up-to-date than any other site I've seen so far. Sometimes, it is even a little ahead.
From a Germanwings SFO I heard that the guy who runs the site is an employee of LH Technik - don't know if it is true.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: SEPilot
Posted 2013-09-21 13:47:00 and read 14218 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 58):
I'm just saying what the aircraft manufacturer said. In my opinion,

And I am saying the manufacturer is being silly.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-21 13:56:41 and read 14192 times.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 38):
I Wonder if any of these 359s are or can be converted to 'R' models?

Sure. They just need to specify them to be delivered with a lower certified MTOW and lower engine thrust.



Quoting finn350 (Reply 50):
There are two different A359 derivatives suggested by Airbus:
- A359-900R, the ultra long haul model, one of the original variants announced when A350 XWB was conceived
- A359-900 Regional, the de-rated A350-900 version that has recently been suggested as a competitor to B787-10. It would be competetive because it has cheaper acquisition price than "plain vanilla" A350-900

With more and more blogs and media sites calling the A350-900 Regional the A350-900R, this is the nomenclature I am using going forward to refer to the model and A350-900LR for the as yet un-launched deep-C market variant.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
airfleets.net says they have 22 in service and 7 in storage. They also sent one to Condor and one to Kalitta.
Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 59):
I prefer http://www.lh-taufnamen.de/, this site more up-to-date than any other site I've seen so far.

My German is not very good, but that site appears to only list active frames?

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-21 14:00:47 and read 14176 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 60):
And I am saying the manufacturer is being silly.

At least we share this thought   

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: douglasyxz
Posted 2013-09-21 23:52:11 and read 13683 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):

"My German is not very good, but that site appears to only list active frames?"

No, not only active planes. Look at "Historic fleet".

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: robffm2
Posted 2013-09-21 23:55:28 and read 13690 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):

airfleets.net says they have 22 in service and 7 in storage. They also sent one to Condor and one to Kalitta

I have a hard time believing Condor (DE) is currently operating an 744.
Maybe you are mixing up the timeline: D-ABTA was with DE before it was transferred to LH in 1996.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: PanHAM
Posted 2013-09-22 00:25:41 and read 13592 times.

Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 63):
No, not only active planes. Look at "Historic fleet".

The historic fleet is active as well, at least during the summer months.

It would be an interesting task to compile a list that shows all aircraft that have been in service with LH since 1955, including the leased aircraft like DC3 and C46 in cargo service. Including date entered service, date laeft the fleet and what happened to the aircraft.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):
My German is not very good, but that site appears to only list active frames?

basically yes, with future aircraft showing the time of delivery / entry into the fleet

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-22 01:29:24 and read 13393 times.

Quoting robffm2 (Reply 64):
I have a hard time believing Condor (DE) is currently operating an 744.
Maybe you are mixing up the timeline: D-ABTA was with DE before it was transferred to LH in 1996.

It was D-ABTD, which was sent from LH to DE from 1993 to 1996 and then came back to LH and stored in 2012.


Anyway, I think the take-away is that LH have enough A380-800s, 747-8, 777-9 and A350-900 on order to replace all 747-400s, A340-600s and A340-300s.

[Edited 2013-09-22 01:31:12]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: astuteman
Posted 2013-09-22 05:02:26 and read 12958 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 66):
Anyway, I think the take-away is that LH have enough A380-800s, 747-8, 777-9 and A350-900 on order to replace all 747-400s, A340-600s and A340-300s.

Given that some of these planes will still be being delivered a decade from now, I'd expect there to be some fleet growth on top of replacements

rgds

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-09-22 14:01:36 and read 12255 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 40):
AF, AZ, LH, BA, KL, LO all have recent Boeing wide-body fleets (748, 77x, 78x).

And that somewhat European carrier, Aeroflot, is or has operated 767, 777 and 787 (as well as A330 and A350 too!).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: earlynff
Posted 2013-09-22 14:04:27 and read 12274 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 66):
Quoting robffm2 (Reply 64):
I have a hard time believing Condor (DE) is currently operating an 744.
Maybe you are mixing up the timeline: D-ABTA was with DE before it was transferred to LH in 1996.

It was D-ABTD, which was sent from LH to DE from 1993 to 1996 and then came back to LH and stored in 2012.

I don´t believe D-ABTD ever changed ownership. Neither did it operate for Condor.
The only purpose of DE-Colours was politics and face saving on both sides, LH and PRC government:
thus this bird flew almost exclusively FRA-BKK-TPE v.v. under regular LH callsign

[Edited 2013-09-22 14:06:51]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: flyingclrs727
Posted 2013-09-22 14:27:14 and read 12165 times.

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 55):
This describes my feelings pretty well. Though I am not sure the 748i is in the dustbin yet. I could see a trickle of orders for specific operators. I wouldn't bet on it you understand, but I'm not ready to write it off.

What about a fixed partition combi version for KLM?

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2013-09-22 14:52:26 and read 12068 times.

Quoting flyingclrs727 (Reply 70):
What about a fixed partition combi version for KLM?

The regulators and the market have spoken, Combi's are currently 777 or A330 with lighter passenger loads and more underfloor cargo. 787 and A350 should continue in this fashion.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2013-09-22 15:01:43 and read 12029 times.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 68):
And that somewhat European carrier, Aeroflot, is or has operated 767, 777 and 787 (as well as A330 and A350 too!).

And A310 and DC-10 (the latter freighters).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-22 15:27:37 and read 11930 times.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 71):
The regulators and the market have spoken, Combi's are currently 777 or A330 with lighter passenger loads and more underfloor cargo. 787 and A350 should continue in this fashion.

Agreed.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-23 01:12:42 and read 11455 times.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 71):
The regulators and the market have spoken, Combi's are currently 777 or A330 with lighter passenger loads and more underfloor cargo. 787 and A350 should continue in this fashion.

   KLM will eventually fly A330s, 787s, A350s and 777s.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Revelation
Posted 2013-09-23 05:03:18 and read 11036 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 72):
And A310 and DC-10 (the latter freighters).

Ah yes, I had forgotten about the A310s. Along with the DC-10s, it seems they also had MD-11 freighters from 2008 to earlier this year, according to der Wiki.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: BigJKU
Posted 2013-09-23 06:50:41 and read 10742 times.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 48):
It was a bit odd, given that LH are still receiving "VLA"'s and will continue to do so for some years yet.

It seems clear to me that the 777-9X's are not replacing 747-8's and A380's, but 747-400's and a340-600's.
Which is an entirely sensible and appropriate market for the 777-9X

The 777-9X will fly alongside the 747-8's and A380's for some time yet.
Can we completely rule out LH ordering A380's in future (e.g A389's in the mid-to late 20's?) to fly alongside the 777-9X's?

I think this is being a bit obtuse about the point being made. I don't think anyone is saying that quads (which is what most mean by VLA at this point) won't be around for quite a while. They will. What I think most are saying is that no manufacturer is likely to look to build a new large quad in the future. Beyond the potential A389 (which I think is pointless to some extent as Airbus would be cannibalizing their own market for the A388 to a pretty good degree) does anyone really think another large quad will be proposed absent some radical change in engine or aerodynamic characteristics that basically turns what we know about fuel efficiency on its head?

That is what people mean by this spelling the long-term death of quads in my view. It is not that there is no market for them. It is that the market is not big enough to justify the R&D risk.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: LH707330
Posted 2013-09-23 10:56:35 and read 10456 times.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 56):
Does Boeing have exclusive rights to define the term? In my mind the 77W qualifies anyway. Right now VLA is a nebulous term; the only agreement seems to be that it includes the A380 and 747. And it seems there is a lot of sentiment towards keeping it an exclusive club for just those two members (I do not foresee another 4-engine airliner in the conceivable future). But as the 747 is definitely on its way out, that leaves just the A380, and the simple fact is that the 779 is going to steal substantial sales from the A380, and hence is a competitor whether or not people want to acknowledge the fact. So not calling it a VLA is just silly, IMHO.

Seeing as a 779 is larger than the 741 and 742 (both of which were called VLAs), I would call the 779 a VLA too. The other tack would be that VLA is a relative term linked to the current largest planes in service. We'll know for sure how LH classifies the 779 when we see if they are named after cities or after Federal States 
Quoting BigJKU (Reply 76):
Beyond the potential A389 (which I think is pointless to some extent as Airbus would be cannibalizing their own market for the A388 to a pretty good degree) does anyone really think another large quad will be proposed absent some radical change in engine or aerodynamic characteristics that basically turns what we know about fuel efficiency on its head?

I'd say that depends on the engine makers and the market for ~600 seaters. Single-deck twins will be maxed out with the 779, so future developments will either go double-deck or stay the same size. If engine makers in 2040 are willing to gamble 3-5 billion on ~150k engines for a double-deck twin, then quads are dead. It's possible that there's a sweet spot where it makes sense for the airframers to build a 600 pax frame, but the R&D on the engines isn't there, so they grab four off-the-shelf engines like Boeing did with the 748. In fact, if A388 sales slow due to the bigger twins, I could see Airbus strapping TXWBs off an A389 wing to get a CASM advantage back.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-23 11:02:09 and read 10425 times.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 77):
The other tack would be that VLA is a relative term linked to the current largest planes in service.

I think this is what is getting lost in this whole esoteric debate anyway. VLA is simply the top of the market, not some specific size. The alternative is start calling the A380 an ULA. But the category isn't getting bigger, it's just moving.

[Edited 2013-09-23 11:05:19]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-23 11:27:57 and read 10315 times.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 77):
Single-deck twins will be maxed out with the 779,

Why? The engines are not maxed out, in fact the thrust is now shrinking. 80m may be a maxed out length but that really hasn't been determined either. Some think the real box is 85m. People thought that Code F sized wings was a barrier but they are coming up with a solution to that problem (folding wings) I am sure more artificial barriers will fall if the OEMs can build it economically and if the airlines express desire; the airports will adjust.

I don't see a reason why the 779 has to be the largest twin.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-09-23 12:21:44 and read 10150 times.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 76):
I don't think anyone is saying that quads (which is what most mean by VLA at this point)

In that case they don't understand the definition.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 76):
does anyone really think another large quad will be proposed absent some radical change in engine or aerodynamic characteristics that basically turns what we know about fuel efficiency on its head?

In what timeframe? I will not be surpriced if there is a 4 engine 1,500 passenger plane 60 years from now.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-09-23 12:55:51 and read 10036 times.

Quoting cmf (Reply 80):
In what timeframe? I will not be surpriced if there is a 4 engine 1,500 passenger plane 60 years from now.

Please tell me there'll be something besides the tube and wings layout by then.

-Dave

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: LH707330
Posted 2013-09-23 13:04:33 and read 10018 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 79):
Why? The engines are not maxed out, in fact the thrust is now shrinking. 80m may be a maxed out length but that really hasn't been determined either. Some think the real box is 85m. People thought that Code F sized wings was a barrier but they are coming up with a solution to that problem (folding wings) I am sure more artificial barriers will fall if the OEMs can build it economically and if the airlines express desire; the airports will adjust.

You're right, the 779 isn't fully maxed out, but it is close to the limit of single-deckers. You might be able to build a wider tube with 3-5-3 seating out to ~85 meters, but beyond that you get too much length/diameter, and thus structural weight, a la A346.

To your point about the airports adapting, that will be more difficult for those in already-built areas. I reckon you'll have some ingenious fixes, e.g. steering MLG, that will help "cheat" out to 85m, but past that it will get tough.

Either way, this is starting to drift O/T. What I'm eager to see with the LH 779 order is how well GE is able to hit spec on their engine, as this is the core selling point of the 779. I read an article this morning discussing the use of water injection as a coolant, perhaps LH's choice for the frame was easier than for EK given the lower temperature of FRA.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: cmf
Posted 2013-09-23 13:32:28 and read 9896 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 81):
Please tell me there'll be something besides the tube and wings layout by then.

Time will tell but I predict they will be talking about BWBs taking over next generation.  

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-23 14:38:51 and read 9741 times.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 82):
You might be able to build a wider tube with 3-5-3 seating out to ~85 meters, but beyond that you get too much length/diameter, and thus structural weight, a la A346.

I am not sure if a wider tube is the solution. The wider they go, especially if cylindrical, the more wasted space/wetted area. At its current width, the 777 would have to go out to almost 89m to have the same width/length ratio as the A346, which is clearly too far. With CFRP a la the A350 who knows if those properties stay consistent.

A 4.8m stretch to the 777-9 (very premature I know) would take it to just over 81m (well below the A346 proportions) and it would still seat 460+ in standard configuration. Not sure either OEM has an interest in going much further than that for the next couple of decades.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 82):
To your point about the airports adapting, that will be more difficult for those in already-built areas. I reckon you'll have some ingenious fixes, e.g. steering MLG, that will help "cheat" out to 85m, but past that it will get tough.

Yeah, I have seen some A346s trying to navigate some airports and finding themselves in very hairy spots. But the A380 and 747-8 have been to hundreds of airports at this point and many more in the future so many of the problems will be worked out in time for the next evolution.

However, I think the next real change will be CFRP, twin floor, twin engine aircraft rather than a longer tube. I imagine something around 68m but thinner than the A380 shouldn't push engine technology too far and a 80m folding wing should be more than enough. Call it Y3 or whatever.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 82):
I read an article this morning discussing the use of water injection as a coolant, perhaps LH's choice for the frame was easier than for EK given the lower temperature of FRA.

I don't think it is a difficult choice for EK. They are fully invested in this project. They have dedicated many man hours and the result is the aircraft that they want. Now it just comes down to pricing and execution because I am not sure the program would even get launched in its current form without EK. This water cooling concept was common in multiple engines in the past so it isn't unique. I imagine it will only be necessary in DXB during certain times of the year. I am sure EK's contract will have plenty of engine performance hurdle clauses built in to try to limit their exposure. GE has to really come through, no doubt. And its not like they don't have a lot on their plate. Fun to witness.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-23 14:56:44 and read 9690 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
However, I think the next real change will be CFRP, twin floor, twin engine aircraft rather than a longer tube. I imagine something around 68m but thinner than the A380 shouldn't push engine technology too far and a 80m folding wing should be more than enough. Call it Y3 or whatever.

I think this is right on the mark. Along with non cylindrical fuselages.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-23 15:19:41 and read 9647 times.

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 85):
I think this is right on the mark. Along with non cylindrical fuselages.

You aren't secretly a Boeing exec are you? If not then we still have more people to convince   The wing should be the next generation step improvement, same with the engines; both known entities but how you cook a CFRP fuse that is that big and non-cylindrical will be quite the engineering feat. Whoever does it will have time to figure it out I guess.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2013-09-23 15:49:45 and read 9595 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
However, I think the next real change will be CFRP, twin floor, twin engine aircraft rather than a longer tube. I imagine something around 68m but thinner than the A380 shouldn't push engine technology too far and a 80m folding wing should be more than enough. Call it Y3 or whatever.

Keesje' Ecoliner. I'd love to see it happen, but I can't imagine Boeing going 744 --> 748 --> 779 --> Ecoliner in a 25 year span. I also can't imagine Airbus with the A388/A351 doing it. So.....when might we see it? 2035? Ugh.

-Dave

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: LH707330
Posted 2013-09-23 15:58:03 and read 9547 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
I am not sure if a wider tube is the solution. The wider they go, especially if cylindrical, the more wasted space/wetted area. At its current width, the 777 would have to go out to almost 89m to have the same width/length ratio as the A346, which is clearly too far. With CFRP a la the A350 who knows if those properties stay consistent.

I was referring to the absolute limit of a single-decker, apologies if I was unclear on that.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
However, I think the next real change will be CFRP, twin floor, twin engine aircraft rather than a longer tube. I imagine something around 68m but thinner than the A380 shouldn't push engine technology too far and a 80m folding wing should be more than enough. Call it Y3 or whatever.

This sounds like a saner concept than a very long tube.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
I don't think it is a difficult choice for EK. They are fully invested in this project. They have dedicated many man hours and the result is the aircraft that they want. Now it just comes down to pricing and execution because I am not sure the program would even get launched in its current form without EK. This water cooling concept was common in multiple engines in the past so it isn't unique.

I think that depends on where. The old waterburning 707s and DC-8s sprayed the water into the compressor to cool the blades, spraying it into the HPT stage without messing up flow characteristics might be an entirely different ballgame. Now if they could find a way to have the water be inside the HPT blades and then dump out as steam to boost the LPT, that would be really cool.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 86):
You aren't secretly a Boeing exec are you? If not then we still have more people to convince The wing should be the next generation step improvement, same with the engines; both known entities but how you cook a CFRP fuse that is that big and non-cylindrical will be quite the engineering feat. Whoever does it will have time to figure it out I guess.

I'm guessing you're involved on some of these programs though, eh? Making a non-cylindrical CFRP fuselage shouldn't be difficult. After all, the folks over in Toulouse figured out how  Baking it as a single wound barrel might be a challenge, though....

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2013-09-23 16:38:37 and read 9480 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 79):
Why? The engines are not maxed out, in fact the thrust is now shrinking. 80m may be a maxed out length but that really hasn't been determined either. Some think the real box is 85m. People thought that Code F sized wings was a barrier but they are coming up with a solution to that problem (folding wings) I am sure more artificial barriers will fall if the OEMs can build it economically and if the airlines express desire; the airports will adjust.

The real problem is runway spacing. I hope that airports start looking at 100m wingspans during runway design. folding wingtips are all fine and good for taxiways and gates, not so much for runways. 100m seems like overkill, but given the time it takes to go from idea, to paper, to planning, to construction... Its not even really "future proofing".

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
I am not sure if a wider tube is the solution. The wider they go, especially if cylindrical, the more wasted space/wetted area

Drag from frontal area is way over estimated here. That extra volume doesn't have to go to waste either. Imagine a 11Y at 17.2" cylinder. Now put some of that extra space into taller underfloor cargo holds. overhead area sees crewrests and galley space. If the wieght penalty pencils out, could move more equipment up there, reducing the amount of lower deck space taken by electical, airconditioning, etc. Give an engineer room and he will find something to use it for.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 87):
Keesje' Ecoliner. I'd love to see it happen

yah, nope. Its extremely heavy for its passenger load, and has 0 cargospace. Its an A380 with all the good aspects taken out. If you want to "right size" the A380, its more a matter of redoing the wings, landing gear, and main structure for a A388 sized plane both in MTOW and capacity. Airbus did itself no favors in doing the baseline for the A389/A380F Going smaller in floor space would just get your lunch stolen by the A350 and 777 series as they exist TODAY.

To be fair, The A389 to me makes a hell of alot more sense than the A388 does today, but it really is a bridge too far from a market perspective.

With 20/20 hindsight, I'd say a little wider floors to "force" airlines to view an extra Y seat per row main deck as normal. Size wings, landing gear, etc for A388 length/wieght, but plan on A389 length for rotation issues. Use improved technology to get the payload/range growth needed for your longer version down the road, not baseline size. Don't know what could be done, but opening up more cargospace in the lower deck would also be a good investment in time/money during design.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-23 17:09:48 and read 9438 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 86):
You aren't secretly a Boeing exec are you? If not then we still have more people to convince The wing should be the next generation step improvement, same with the engines; both known entities but how you cook a CFRP fuse that is that big and non-cylindrical will be quite the engineering feat. Whoever does it will have time to figure it out I guess.

  LOL.

Nah, not me. The closest degree of separation I have to Boeing is knowing some of the processes they help with in the last America's Cup for Team Oracle, which is obviously tangential at best.

I don't think the baking process is that far off however. I will say, I think we are probably a generation apart in what we are speaking of. I think the wings and engines you are putting forth (at least as I envision) come before the next double decker. But then again, I may not be conceptualizing the same as you!

[Edited 2013-09-23 17:11:47]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-23 17:31:42 and read 9416 times.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 87):
Keesje' Ecoliner. I'd love to see it happen, but I can't imagine Boeing going 744 --> 748 --> 779 --> Ecoliner in a 25 year span. I also can't imagine Airbus with the A388/A351 doing it. So.....when might we see it? 2035? Ugh.

Yeah I have to admit to liking the 737/A320 on top of a 787/A350 (aka 3 by 3 on top and 3-3-3 on bottom) vs the 767 on top of a 777 or even a 3-3 on top of a 3-4-3. Its would be about saving weight and the designs for the max/neo and the 787/A350 are already streamlined and CFRP savy so that would be my choice (assume the aero works out).

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 88):
I was referring to the absolute limit of a single-decker, apologies if I was unclear on that.

Maybe my response went astray but I understood what you were putting down   Think we could see a an 80m+ tube twin but I personally can't see it going all the way out to 85m and I don't see it wider than 10 abreast; you just lose efficiencies at a certain point. I assume the CFRP in the A350 could be stretched further but at 9 abreast I don't know if it would matter.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 88):
spraying it into the HPT stage without messing up flow characteristics might be an entirely different ballgame.

and you might be on to something there. It would be great to get lightsaber's view on it but I think the compressor is getting advanced ceramic matrix composites to handle the heat. I imagine it is in the HPT where EK is concerned.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 88):
After all, the folks over in Toulouse figured out how  Baking it as a single wound barrel might be a challenge, though....

While the aft fuse, wings, etc are cfrp most of the A380s fuse is aluminum. I imagine the ovens are big enough to do a barrel bake because there would be a lot of wasted space in that gigantic/expensive oven and the verdict is still out if barrels make a difference of panels anyway. Although Airbus is just as capable at this project, I imagine it will have to be Boeing as I think the A380 will be with us for a very log time and the will want to stay competitively very far away.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 88):
I'm guessing you're involved on some of these programs though, eh?

Thanks, my ego needed that.  
Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 89):
Drag from frontal area is way over estimated here. That extra volume doesn't have to go to waste either. Imagine a 11Y at 17.2" cylinder.

So you want to make the cylinder wider to add an extra seat and cargo instead of making it taller and gaining 6 seats at the expense of some cargo? Two different thoughts for sure.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 89):
If you want to "right size" the A380, its more a matter of redoing the wings, landing gear, and main structure for a A388 sized plane both in MTOW and capacity

To me it is about minimizing the drag and maximizing the number of seats and I think 500+ seats is too far for the next generation as the A380 variants have that area locked up and what do you do when the next generation of 777/A350s want to go larger again. Right size the wing and the MLG is a must but have it be around a 400-450 seater instead of 525-650 seater.

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 90):
the last America's Cup for Team Oracle

Boy they have battled back and are in it. I just got done watching #16 8-6 and can't wait for tomorrow  

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-24 04:35:11 and read 8981 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 84):
A 4.8m stretch to the 777-9 (very premature I know) would take it to just over 81m (well below the A346 proportions) and it would still seat 460+ in standard configuration.

That is premature indeed.   The B777-8/9 program will have a projected EIS in 2020, and the program will run imho at least till 2035-2040. After that Y3 is likely (if we can still call it Y3 at that time) and I am not a believer in even more stretched out versions of the B777.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 89):
Airbus did itself no favors in doing the baseline for the A389/A380F Going smaller in floor space would just get your lunch stolen by the A350 and 777 series as they exist TODAY.

To be fair, The A389 to me makes a hell of alot more sense than the A388 does today, but it really is a bridge too far from a market perspective.

I think it is a very fair comment that you are making here. But I think Airbus has done itself a favor by planning for the A389/A380F. Such programs will run at least 30 years, or more. See the B748 which originates from the B747 which had it's first flight on January 9th, 1969! So almost 45 years ago.

My expectation is that around 2020 we will see the EIS of the next A380-versions with updates aerodynamics, improved production processes (to cut the production time and costs) and with new engines bringing them up to at least the standard of the T-XWB or even one step further (comparable with the GE9x for the B779).

Maybe only the A389 will be offered then, but I can still see a place for an A388 with the same updated technology. And Airbus R&D are in need for new projects as per 2017 we will have the A400M, the A320-neo's and all the A350-variants in full production.  .

A customer like LH will for sure be interested in such versions as well, but that the bulk of the fleet will comprise out of the A350 and B779 makes only sense for them. Hence they secured quite a number of options and/or purchase rights for both these new WB-twins.

[Edited 2013-09-24 04:58:53]

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-24 05:24:15 and read 8861 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 91):
Boy they have battled back and are in it. I just got done watching #16 8-6 and can't wait for tomorrow

Yeah, it's been something else. Giving me heart palpitations!

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-24 07:43:49 and read 8697 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 92):
That is premature indeed.   The B777-8/9 program will have a projected EIS in 2020, and the program will run imho at least till 2035-2040...I am not a believer in even more stretched out versions of the B777

Like many around here I was surprised when the 777-9x was only a 2.5m stretch of the 77W. Most people thought that it was only stretched to that point because the MLG couldn't reach the rotation angle if the aircraft was any longer and this was the maximum that it could be stretched without significant redesign. This could very well be the case.

However, (conspiracy theory) I wonder if the -9 was stretched until the seat economics were comparable to the A351 and until the number of seats were close enough to still be competitive with it. At ~55 seats, I think they are on that cusp. Much longer and the A351 would have a huge market to itself. Also, this modest stretch would keep costs down and engine thrust could be lowered which I assume is a touch easier for GE to accomplish. I also think they wanted the -8 to be relatively close to the 787-10 so they could tag team the 320-350 seat market with a regional and something with range.

Which brings me to my next thought: Doesn't it make sense to at least plan for an ultra long haul/long haul and a regional in each family? They are doing it with the 787. They did it with the original 777.

More thoughts:
>I do not believe that in 10 years they can't find a way to make the gear work for a slightly longer aircraft without adding too much weight.
>Many airlines do not need 8,100nm range. The average A380 route is 4,000nm; only 10 routes are above 5,700nm.
>The wing span to fuse length ratio of the 787-10 applied to the 777x yields an 81m 777-10x (~460 seats) (similar results in fuse diameter to length ratio).
>It would most likely require little to no wing changes, engine changes, or fuselage strengthening (probably).
>The wing is much more capable (area and span) of handling this stretch than an A350-1100 which would use essentially the same wing for 4 different fuse lengths?
> 787-8,-9,-10......777-8,-9,-10?

I am not saying its imminent I just don't see why Boeing wouldn't at least have thought about it in case the 779 sells extremely well and if gas prices sky rocket or if the A380 starts selling like gangbusters. I imagine a 460 seat twin with cargo capabilities could probably compete against a 525 quad on ~5,000nm routes. Its too small of a market for now.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-24 08:04:41 and read 8657 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 94):
However, (conspiracy theory) I wonder if the -9 was stretched until the seat economics were comparable to the A351 and until the number of seats were close enough to still be competitive with it.

We know the A351 and 779 will have around the same fuel burn per passenger so I believe Boeing had stretched the design until the economics were comparable to the largest A350. Together with the new wing and new engines, they only needed 20 more seats.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-24 08:27:24 and read 8563 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 95):
We know the A351 and 779 will have around the same fuel burn per passenger so I believe Boeing had stretched the design until the economics were comparable to the largest A350. Together with the new wing and new engines, they only needed 20 more seats.

How can they be comparable at 55 seats if they only needed 20? I assume 'the largest A350' is the A351 in this case? I am sorry, I do not follow.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: a380787
Posted 2013-09-24 08:40:36 and read 8506 times.

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 54):
Perhaps UA will launch EWR/IAD-Berlin with a 757 someday, if necessary as part of the JV with LH. DUS will see more intercontinental action from LH before Berlin, IMO.

I thought UA already has EWR-TXL (legacy CO route)

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-09-24 09:18:00 and read 8418 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 96):
How can they be comparable at 55 seats if they only needed 20? I assume 'the largest A350' is the A351 in this case? I am sorry, I do not follow.

The 77W already has 36 more seats thus Boeing needed only an additional 20 seats.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-24 09:40:23 and read 8378 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 98):

Right. I see, the 20 seats was compared to the 77W. Got it and I agree. That seems to have been the motivation in my opinion and it will allow 77W operators a modest increase in seats. They still have left room for a stretch if they need/market demands it down the road and I bet that as they are designing the 777-9 they will be thinking about it in someway or another.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2013-09-24 10:56:23 and read 8208 times.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 97):
thought UA already has EWR-TXL (legacy CO route)

They do. I believe it is daily and it is flown with 752 aircraft.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-24 17:14:14 and read 7930 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 91):
Boy they have battled back and are in it. I just got done watching #16 8-6 and can't wait for tomorrow

Wow, another day!!!!

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-09-24 17:22:56 and read 8200 times.

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 101):
Wow, another day!!!!

So off topic but: 8-8, how great is this?! I was jumping up and down on that upwind cross. So exciting.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: gegarrenton
Posted 2013-09-24 17:24:22 and read 8187 times.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 102):

So off topic but: 8-8, how great is this?! I was jumping up and down on that upwind cross. So exciting.

Totally off topic. 

SO awesome though.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-24 17:29:03 and read 8185 times.

Wasn;t there a reason water injection became passe and "old tech"? Does this mean GE may have trouble increasing thrust in the future for later heavier variants?

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-24 18:10:04 and read 8116 times.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 104):
Wasn't there a reason water injection became passe and "old tech"?

Improved materials with greater heat resistance made water cooling unnecessary.



Quoting trex8 (Reply 104):
Does this mean GE may have trouble increasing thrust in the future for later heavier variants?

Very doubtful, considering what GE gets out of the GE90 and the GE9X will have better materials. GE already offers a "thrust bump" option for the GE90 for "hot" fields like DXB, but using it increases wear and tear on the engine and shortens service life between maintenance periods.

I'm guessing Mr. Clark wants liquid cooling so as to get the benefits of the "thrust bump" when EK needs it, but in a way that they do not incur a maintenance penalty (as liquid cooling would reduce the component temperature).

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EPA001
Posted 2013-09-25 02:27:38 and read 7722 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 105):
I'm guessing Mr. Clark wants liquid cooling so as to get the benefits of the "thrust bump" when EK needs it, but in a way that they do not incur a maintenance penalty (as liquid cooling would reduce the component temperature).

That is most likely the reason for this technology to become interesting again. Which is a good thing imho.  .

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: XT6Wagon
Posted 2013-09-25 02:45:42 and read 7660 times.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 92):
But I think Airbus has done itself a favor by planning for the A389/A380F

Plenty of other frames have grown quite a bit from the first spec. 737-100 to 737-9Max. 772 to 779. A330 has gotten a good MTOW/payload boost even if the model numbers didn't change. Heck the first A300 was pathetic, with unusable payload/range... And the A300-600 is quite the cargo hauler with its substantial payload and viable range.

History is filled with aircraft that have seen substantial growth in ability over time. Some needing "new gen" programs, others continous small improvements as technology advances.

Thus making the A380 baseline the A388 would have little to no penalty for a A389 or A388F that entered design a decade or two more after EIS. I blame it on thinking the A380F was required to follow the A388 immediately.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: trex8
Posted 2013-09-25 03:26:02 and read 7580 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 105):
Very doubtful, considering what GE gets out of the GE90 and the GE9X will have better materials. GE already offers a "thrust bump" option for the GE90 for "hot" fields like DXB, but using it increases wear and tear on the engine and shortens service life between maintenance periods.

I'm guessing Mr. Clark wants liquid cooling so as to get the benefits of the "thrust bump" when EK needs it, but in a way that they do not incur a maintenance penalty (as liquid cooling would reduce the component temperature).

But if the increased efficiency of the new engines are essentially due to running at higher temps AND they need water injection for the 9X to achieve the thrust necessary , They either need to have a major advance in materials for later 9X versions- and it may end up being quite a different engine. Or the time on wing or fuel consumption takes a hit.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-09-25 09:58:27 and read 7182 times.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 109):
But if the increased efficiency of the new engines are essentially due to running at higher temps AND they need water injection for the 9X to achieve the thrust necessary, they either need to have a major advance in materials for later 9X versions- and it may end up being quite a different engine. Or the time on wing or fuel consumption takes a hit.

Liquid cooling would only be used at TOGA thrust levels on very hot days ("well-above 32°C" applies to the GE90 thrust bump so it stands to reason this would be the case for engaging liquid cooling on the GE9X), not at cruise thrust levels, so it should have no real effect on overall fuel consumption. On wing time does take a hit with the GE90 thrust bump if used "often", but again, I expect the liquid cooling is designed to mitigate that effect.

We should also note that it appears only EK seems to be calling for this. QR is said to be ready to order a shedload themselves and Mr. Al Baker has never been one to be shy about perceived deficients in a product. So it may be something unique to the mission profiles EK plans to use the 777-9 on and it may only be certain mission profiles / aircraft configurations. Mr. Clark also only mentioned the 777-9, so I am guessing they are okay with the 777-8's TOGA performance with the GE9X.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-10-04 09:09:52 and read 6488 times.

The Airbus order has been firmed already.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/co...ate-information/orders-deliveries/

Quote:
Lufthansa, which is Airbus’ biggest airline customer, ordered 25 A350-900s and placed options for 30 more in a transaction with the flexibility to convert some of these aircraft to the larger A350-1000.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: EddieDude
Posted 2013-10-04 09:42:17 and read 6246 times.

Lots of firming up these days. SU and SK did so too.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-10-04 09:56:13 and read 6166 times.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 112):
Lots of firming up these days. SU and SK did so too.

And there is still a Dubai air show to come   

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: abba
Posted 2013-10-04 11:18:25 and read 5875 times.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 76):
Beyond the potential A389 (which I think is pointless to some extent as Airbus would be cannibalizing their own market for the A388 to a pretty good degree)

This is an often heard argument - but it doesn’t hold. And that is due to the fact that prices of aircrafts are set according to the revenue they can generate for the airlines with a view to the risk involved (eg due to size) and competing products. Now, as an A389 can generate more revenue (once the market is ready to receive it in reasonable numbers) than the A388 it will be priced higher. At the same time the A389 will not be that much more expensive to build than the A388 - hence its higher price will generate a higher margin. As the A389 at the same time is built into the A388 it will not be very expensive to develop. So from an Airbus perspective, it will be very good for them if the A389 could indeed be cannibalizing the 388 as it will earn Airbus a lot more money.  

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Ronaldo747
Posted 2013-10-04 11:26:20 and read 5931 times.

Lufthansa cancels 3 A380 orders

http://world.einnews.com/article/170594471/uaAcCYhLDsi3tokh

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: tortugamon
Posted 2013-10-04 13:16:22 and read 5615 times.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 115):

I imagine some people will connect this A380 cancelation with the 777-9x purchase. The 34 purchases seemed a little higher than most thought they would buy so maybe this explains some things. A380 seats ~525 in LH configuration (I think) and the 779 should sit around 350 so this could be a swap of three for one for five of the other. Or maybe it is unrelated.

It sure seems to mean that the 744s may stick around a little longer.

tortugamon

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: columba
Posted 2013-10-04 23:39:03 and read 5054 times.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 115):
Lufthansa cancels 3 A380 orders
http://world.einnews.com/article/170594471/uaAcCYhLDsi3tokh

Interesting especially in the light of the recent AF comments:
Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network (by LAXintl Oct 1 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Strange though that only a few months ago they wanted to order two additional frames and now instead of firming these orders they are canceling three.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-10-04 23:49:08 and read 5036 times.

Quoting columba (Reply 117):
Strange though that only a few months ago they wanted to order two additional frames and now instead of firming these orders they are canceling three.

Guess they feel their current A380-800 and 747-8 fleet (in service and on order) is sufficient for their needs and the 777-9 will form the third (and perhaps largest) leg of their high-capacity widebody fleet.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: N14AZ
Posted 2013-10-05 01:31:58 and read 4769 times.

I started a thread about LH cancelling three A 380s some hours ago but it was deleted. Seems I always misunderstood the rules an it's better to discuss this issue off-topic in another thread rather than starting a separate thread.

That being said, I am fully aware of what such a separate thread would become...

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: oldeuropean
Posted 2013-10-05 01:44:42 and read 4715 times.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 115):
Lufthansa cancels 3 A380 orders

http://world.einnews.com/article/170...3tokh

Hmmm ...

... a bit odd, but now, a day later, there is still no German report about this cancellation.
 

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Scipio
Posted 2013-10-05 02:01:31 and read 4686 times.

Reuters quotes a Lufthansa spokesman as saying that the three orders were "firm options" that needed to be reconfirmed to be valid.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...irbus-orders-idUSL6N0HU32J20131004

It's a strange volte face from Lufthansa, and it makes its A380 order history look rather erratic.

They started with 15 firm orders and 5 options, back in 2001. They added 2 orders in 2011, explaining that they took up 2 early delivery slots that had become available. Earlier this year, they sought and got board approval to order an additional 2.

And now, suddenly, they fail to reconfirm three "firm options" ...

Odd...

It would be good to get some explanations from Lufthansa.

In any case, Airbus may want to start doing some serious thinking about updating the A380...

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: queb
Posted 2013-10-05 04:47:18 and read 4309 times.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 120):
... a bit odd, but now, a day later, there is still no German report about this cancellation.

it's reported in the Airbus orders ans deliveries figures

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/co...ate-information/orders-deliveries/

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: KarelXWB
Posted 2013-10-05 04:49:06 and read 4321 times.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 121):
Odd...

Apparently fleet strategies change more than you and me changes underwear.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 121):
In any case, Airbus may want to start doing some serious thinking about updating the A380...

There was a recent interview with Tom Williams, in which he said "we really need to think about how we keep the A380 sharp". Airbus said it's starting to explore ways to refresh the A380 to improve performance toward the end of the decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...resher-to-help-rekindle-sales.html

Next we had Tim Clark saying he want's an engine upgrade for another 90 A380s (beware, this is not the same as a completely new engine). Airbus might consider this if Clark is willing to commit for another 90 whalejets.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Scipio
Posted 2013-10-05 09:00:34 and read 3839 times.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 123):
Quoting Scipio (Reply 121):
Odd...

Apparently fleet strategies change more than you and me changes underwear.

Well, at least in my case, I wouldn't go that far ...  


A little bird whispered into my ear that the cancellation is related to the commercial terms of those "firm options". As such, it would not represent a choice against the A380, or a significant shift in fleet strategy.

Recall that Etihad also cancelled its original order for 4 frames, and then went on to place an order for 10.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Stitch
Posted 2013-10-05 14:01:59 and read 3286 times.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 124):
A little bird whispered into my ear that the cancellation is related to the commercial terms of those "firm options". As such, it would not represent a choice against the A380, or a significant shift in fleet strategy.

Per an article in Bloomberg, an LH spokesman noted the reason for the A380 cancellations were due to "our conservative growth and fleet plans".

It was also reported that Lufthansa told investors earlier today that its fleet won’t grow beyond 400 planes through 2016, with previous capacity plans having called for as many as 480 aircraft.

Topic: RE: Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2
Username: Aircellist
Posted 2013-10-05 15:12:14 and read 3070 times.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 125):
Per an article in Bloomberg, an LH spokesman noted the reason for the A380 cancellations were due to "our conservative growth and fleet plans".

It was also reported that Lufthansa told investors earlier today that its fleet won’t grow beyond 400 planes through 2016, with previous capacity plans having called for as many as 480 aircraft.

If true (and I see no reason to doubt it), that looks like a major change of plan. A cautious one, by the way. Cancelling a few A380s makes sense in that light. As well as the absence of a 250-300-seat airliner in the fleet portrait that came with the order I guess.


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