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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: jetblueguy22
Posted 2014-03-10 14:47:13 and read 81039 times.

Due to length part 9 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 10.

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines 772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

-There's no solid evidence other that 9M-MRO remains missing.

-There's no indication that ACARS was active on 9M-MRO.

-The debris field, when it's finally located might be our first clue as to what happened. But even that is being distorted by the ocean as the hours pass.

-We still have the barest of info.

-There were no calls for help, and apparently data and radar were lost around 41 minutes into the flight near IGARI waypoint.

-Several countries are assisting in the search effort.

-At present a government cover-up seems unlikely.

*** Extracts from several members ***


A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation.

It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome. Enjoy the forums!


Regards and thanks so much for your co-operation,

Pat

[Edited 2014-03-10 14:48:29]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-10 14:55:56 and read 80758 times.

(repost from thread #10)

Quoting ideekay (Reply 261):

If you also account for flying low (to avoid primary radars), you'll end up with a radius of 1500 nm (at least I've read that in one of the previous posts).

Quoting indcwby (Reply 244):
But in a situation like this, and if it is determined that terrorism is the result of this case, then he could/would easily become a scapegoat for providing a way on board the flight. Again, key word is if those stolen passports played a role at all.

Then he may be a scapegoat. But in order to book tickets, does the Iranian need to know IF the passports were stolen? Until now I didn't have to indicate my passport number when booking anything. U2 and W6 let me happily fly in the past four years. I just had to indicate my name as it is written on my credit card.


David

[Edited 2014-03-10 14:56:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: MaverickM11
Posted 2014-03-10 14:59:44 and read 80275 times.

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Thread starter):
-We still have the barest of info.

And yet eleven threads that are chock-a-block...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: ideekay
Posted 2014-03-10 14:59:50 and read 80349 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 1):
If you also account for flying low (to avoid primary radars), you'll end up with a radius of 1500 nm (at least I've read that in one of the previous posts).

Thanks for the info.
In that case its 1500 * 1.852 = 2778 Km

So the map COULD look like this:

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: samair
Posted 2014-03-10 15:00:43 and read 80169 times.

I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything). Based on previous 2 major 777 crashes where the fuselage has remained almost intact. Could it be possible that with a very experienced pilot the aircraft has had a very successful landing but unfortunately sank before people could evacuate?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-10 15:01:06 and read 80141 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 215):
Note - I believe modern ATC systems will continue to show a predicted track and information for a time - I don't know how long (minutes or seconds I would expect). This prevents the a/c from appearing and disappearing all the time due to momentary signal loss.

We have what are called "coasting" targets... They are there for 3 or 4 sweeps on an extrapolated basis from the last calculated track/gs. Then on the newer systems, we have what is called on the Eurocat X system, a 'flight plan track'. This is a psuedo track generated according to the flight plan route, aircraft preformance in our database, and winds aloft. We keep this up to date by using pilot reports and estimates. Its very accurate, not like radar, but is still a good situational awareness tool. So if a transponder fails (or SSR antenna for that matter), you don't lose all situational awareness.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 215):
Back in the "day" primary radar was used for ATC in local areas - to day it is rarely used.


Not at all. It is hugely prevalent (if not mandatory) still (at least here in Europe), however as I wrote in one of these threads, it is digitised data and is presented to us not entirely unlike a SSR target, just no altitude and squawk. The days of green or orange blobs are firmly consigned to history. All centres I have worked with in the last 3 countries all have PSR/MSSR/ModeS/MLAT covering terminal areas...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-10 15:04:07 and read 79749 times.

In an earlier thread (perhaps #8?), I wondered why the search was focussed on the Gulf of Thailand and the Straits of Malacca, but was omitting the mountains of peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand- land that must have been crossed if MH370 flew from its last known point across off the coast of West Malaysia.

I thought previously that this must be a serious omission of a logical possibility.

It has now been justified in terms of 'there are things I can tell you and things I cannot tell you'.

That suggests that there is undisclosed information about some kind of "activity" in the Straits of Malacca, rather than idle speculation that perhaps the plane may have changed course.

My guess (and that is all that it is) is that more will come from this line of investigation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: marktci
Posted 2014-03-10 15:06:23 and read 79249 times.

Re-posting from after the last thread was locked:

Having read through most of the ten pages, I am going to wade in with my (admittedly amateur) thoughts.

To me, it seems like there are two possible scenarios:

1) A hijacking type of incident in which the systems which would otherwise transmit information from the plane were disabled. I don't see the plane having landed safely anywhere (surely every satellite possible would be looking for a 777 where it doesn't belong) and thus has crashed somewhere, possibly some significant amount of time after its last known location.

2) A catastrophic system failure affecting the ability to fly the plane, to communicate (both actively and passively), and possibly to breathe. The plane flies for some distance (either on its own or with some limited inputs) before crashing.

I don't know enough of the technical details to talk about how either would have happened. To me these just seem like the most likely scenarios taking into account what little we know at this point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: warden145
Posted 2014-03-10 15:08:30 and read 79267 times.

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Thread starter):

Just wanted to say, thank you for the summary...as interested as I am, it's difficult to go through 2,000+ posts to get an idea on the current status of the search.

It would be wonderful if a miracle happens and all are found alive and well, but it's almost certain that that will not happen...may the passengers and crew rest in peace  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DUSdude
Posted 2014-03-10 15:09:41 and read 78939 times.

Quoting samair (Reply 4):
I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything). Based on previous 2 major 777 crashes where the fuselage has remained almost intact. Could it be possible that with a very experienced pilot the aircraft has had a very successful landing but unfortunately sank before people could evacuate?

My previous post at the end of the previous thread was apparently ignored...

The previous two 777 incidents were low speed crash landings at a speed below stall speed on final approach at a flat angle. Just about any aircraft type should look largely visually intact in such a scenario. The present disappearance may or may not turn out to be similar depending on the speed at which MH 370 impacted whatever it turns out to have impacted and at what angle. In either case, whatever remains of the aircraft, recognizable or not, would be properly referred to as "wreckage" since it is most certainly going to be a total hull loss.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:10:23 and read 78652 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 1):
If you also account for flying low (to avoid primary radars), you'll end up with a radius of 1500 nm (at least I've read that in one of the previous posts).

That was an estimate based on no factual data, and stated as such.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-10 15:11:44 and read 78712 times.

Quoting samair (Reply 4):
I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything). Based on previous 2 major 777 crashes where the fuselage has remained almost intact. Could it be possible that with a very experienced pilot the aircraft has had a very successful landing but unfortunately sank before people could evacuate?

1. That the aircraft has broken up SR111-style (steep angle, high velocity, millions of small debris particles that won't float on water) is still a possibility.
2. No fuselage will remain intact in a real crash.
3. An aircraft still capable to prepare a ditching/water landing is still capable to squawk 7700, call mayday through VHF or HF, or even use the sat phone to talk directly with OPS, announcing the coordinates of the intended ditching.


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-10 15:13:09 and read 78499 times.

Looking at improbable scenarios, something came to mind, and I don't know whether this is possible or not (so please tell me).

If (repeat if) this was a hijacking, is it possible to beam false radar signals that say the plane is flying on its normal course (say, across the Gulf of Thailand), when it is in fact flying in a different direction (say, up into the Straits of Malacca)?

If this is possible (and I don't know whether it is), then the search in the Straits of Malacca - but not on land in either Malaysia or Thailand - suddenly makes sense.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-10 15:14:45 and read 78133 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 10):
That was an estimate based on no factual data, and stated as such.

Thanks, and I now see that KUL-PEK is about 2400 nm, and if the 777 has taken fuel for such a short trip, then the possible range when flying at 1000 ft, avoiding any radar, whould be much, much shorter still.


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rc135x
Posted 2014-03-10 15:16:56 and read 77817 times.

Does the 777 autopilot have an "auto level off" function, where the cruise altitude is set during climb and the airplane will automatically level off without pilot intervention?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-10 15:17:22 and read 77856 times.

If the plane did go down west of the Malacca Strait, the water gets pretty deep.... I'm not sure how it works, but if a plane sinks intact then i think they'll never find anything- unless the same resources are used as they were with AF 447.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-10 15:19:00 and read 77616 times.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 12):
If (repeat if) this was a hijacking, is it possible to beam false radar signals that say the plane is flying on its normal course (say, across the Gulf of Thailand), when it is in fact flying in a different direction (say, up into the Straits of Malacca)?

There is military technology that can falsify radar returns, but don't ask me about the specifics.

What you describe could be achieved quite simply - find another air crew willing to change the transponder code.

Squawks can be changed quickly - but what about the hex code?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_transponder_interrogation_modes


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-10 15:21:40 and read 77278 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 16):
but what about the hex code?

That requires hardware on the ground. It cannot be done in flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:23:07 and read 76995 times.

Quoting rc135x (Reply 14):
Does the 777 autopilot have an "auto level off" function, where the cruise altitude is set during climb and the airplane will automatically level off without pilot intervention?

Never flown anything that big, but my understanding is that it is a standard feature on autopilots. You set a maximum climb rate and you set a target altitude and away you go.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, anyone. I've simply heard of autopilots on less sophisticated planes being used in this way.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:26:16 and read 76425 times.

Quoting samair (Reply 4):

I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything). Based on previous 2 major 777 crashes where the fuselage has remained almost intact. Could it be possible that with a very experienced pilot the aircraft has had a very successful landing but unfortunately sank before people could evacuate?

I think they are looking for anything that would indicate where the plane is. At this point, no one knows whether the plane is in one piece or in many pieces at the bottom of the ocean. I can imagine that the pressure difference would make it nearly impossible to open an emergency exit when the plane is fully submerged.

I am sorry for asking this, but I missed it. The oil slicks have been determined not to have been from the 777. What were they from then?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: CALTECH
Posted 2014-03-10 15:27:02 and read 76466 times.

Quoting gatechae (Reply 226):
If the plane did in fact crash into the gulf of Thailand at a high rate of speed, wouldn't the relatively narrow depth (average depth at 80m, with a 777 length being 64m) cause it to break up upon impact with the sea floor (allowing debris to float to the surface)?

Not known what speed or what angle the 777 entered the sea. Could miss the sea floor altogether. All speculation until the FDR and CVR are recovered. Just seems odd that there is no large debris field, would think that points to the fuselage somewhat surviving impact. The fuselage is where almost all of your floating debris would come from. Macabre, but there should be magazines, clothes and bodies and such floating everywhere if the fuselage took major damage.

Remember AF 447, who would have thought that it had hit the sea relatively level with a little bit of forward speed and a lot of vertical speed, which shattered the aircraft. Took forever to find that aircraft. The sea is shallower in this tragedy, might be found quicker.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: PRFlyer
Posted 2014-03-10 15:28:30 and read 76168 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 19):
I am sorry for asking this, but I missed it. The oil slicks have been determined not to have been from the 777. What were they from then?

Laboratory analysis confirms that it is bunker oil from a ship.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:30:43 and read 75916 times.

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 20):
Just seems odd that there is no large debris field, would think that points to the fuselage somewhat surviving impact. The fuselage is where almost all of your floating debris would come from. Macabre, but there should be magazines, clothes and bodies and such floating everywhere if the fuselage took major damage.

I agree with that 100 percent and that is partially, almost entirely, why I believe the plane may be intact, but resting at the bottom of the ocean. I know that sounds crazy. If that were the case, however, how long would it take for water to engulf the cabin?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:31:49 and read 75883 times.

Quoting PRFlyer (Reply 21):
Laboratory analysis confirms that it is bunker oil from a ship.

Thank you.

Does the lack of fuel in the ocean mean that the fuel tanks held up? If so, does that mean the wings are not damaged?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:32:18 and read 75557 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 19):
I can imagine that the pressure difference would make it nearly impossible to open an emergency exit when the plane is fully submerged.

If the outflow valves were closed, the pressure would make it easier to open than normal... If those systems were working normally, the pressure would have normalized and it would be like opening a car door (underwater - nearly impossible). It's my understanding that aircraft have pressurized canisters on the emergency exits that, when "armed", force the door open and inflate the slide.

Realistically if you were in a laden 777 that hit water and managed to survive, you'd be exiting through a hole in the fuselage.

[Edited 2014-03-10 15:34:50]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:33:30 and read 77721 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 23):

Does the lack of fuel in the ocean mean that the fuel tanks held up? If so, does that mean the wings are not damaged?

No one knows. They haven't found the wreckage. Jet-A1 would disperse and evaporate quickly in that environment.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Web500sjc
Posted 2014-03-10 15:34:57 and read 78438 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 18):
Never flown anything that big, but my understanding is that it is a standard feature on autopilots. You set a maximum climb rate and you set a target altitude and away you go.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_South_Dakota_Learjet_crash

This is what that sort of crash looks like.

Lear jet set to climb to up, and then all aboard became unconscious. Crashed after fuel exhaustion.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:36:30 and read 79843 times.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 26):

Yeah. Here's another that made use of that AP system:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinnacle_Airlines_Flight_3701

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:38:46 and read 79597 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 25):
No one knows. They haven't found the wreckage. Jet-A1 would disperse and evaporate quickly in that environment.

I forgot about the evaporation factor. Thanks. If the wings were destroyed or sliced, would the pieces float or would they stay submerged, if there was no fuel in the tanks?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-10 15:39:30 and read 79509 times.

What do you all think of these as premises:

1) Assuming the pilots were not incapacitated (e.g. hypoxia), there has to be a amount of time (e.g. 20 minutes) after a serious event by which point it is a near certainty that the pilots will have tried to contact ATC / declare an emergency. In other words, we all understand aviate, navigate, communicate... but the chances that a serious event occurs and the pilots proceed to aviate for, say, 20 minutes without attempting any communication seems vanishingly small. Granted everything we are hypothesizing has a vanishingly small chance of happening, but is that a reasonable premise?

2) Any failure that would result in a failure of the transponder and a failure of all communication abilities would be catastrophic. The longest a plane could stay aloft after that would be its glide time. At FL 350 at cruise speed, I have read this would be about 20 minutes. Give or take.

So....

I realize there are some unstated assumptions there (and feel to criticize them if they are defeat any value to this exercise), but between Premises 1 and 2, doesn't it stand to reason that the plane either went down within a 20-minute flying radius (at relatively slow airspeed) of where contact was loss OR something nefarious has happened?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:43:42 and read 78445 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 24):
Realistically if you were in a laden 777 that hit water and managed to survive, you'd be exiting through a hole in the fuselage.

Thank you for that response as well. I did not know the exit doors are equipped to be opened in any environment. But that is just my point, if there was no damage. If there was no damage, they would have to exit through the emergency exits, right?

What is the likelihood that anyone survived the impact, if the plane - at least the cabin - stayed intact? Eventually, though, they would run out of oxygen, which could kill them if they are not found. At the same time, though, if the accident was not hard enough to kill people on impact, then the emergency transmitter would have, presumably, gone off. I know we do not know, but I am just thinking out loud.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: marktci
Posted 2014-03-10 15:43:55 and read 78366 times.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):
I realize there are some unstated assumptions there (and feel to criticize them if they are defeat any value to this exercise), but between Premises 1 and 2, doesn't it stand to reason that the plane either went down within a 20-minute flying radius (at relatively slow airspeed) of where contact was loss OR something nefarious has happened?

This is pretty much in line with my thinking from reply #7.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:45:53 and read 78371 times.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):
In other words, we all understand aviate, navigate, communicate... but the chances that a serious event occurs and the pilots proceed to aviate for, say, 20 minutes without attempting any communication seems vanishingly small.

That is why I believe something very, very bad happened very quickly in the air, because there was no time to communicate. I think a captain with that much experience would have communicated had he had the opportunity.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:46:34 and read 77657 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 28):
If the wings were destroyed or sliced, would the pieces float or would they stay submerged, if there was no fuel in the tanks?

I wouldn't know about that. I know they are denser than water so they would sink. Way way way earlier in the threads, someone commented about how the vertical stab from AF447 floated only because it broke off luckily enough that it preserved a water-tight pocket of air in the negative space inside it. I doubt such a thing could occur when a wing breaks off, since I imagine any negative space would be used for fuel. I am only a private pilot ... I don't know.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-10 15:46:41 and read 77810 times.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):
Premises 1 and 2, doesn't it stand to reason that the plane either went down within a 20-minute flying radius (at relatively slow airspeed) of where contact was loss OR something nefarious has happened?

Yes.

And the fact that no traces of wreckage have been found in the highly populated area (fishing boats, sea vessels, etc), combined with the vague official announcements about searching in the Straits of Malacca, are what led me to suggest a completely different line of thinking:

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 12):
If (repeat if) this was a hijacking, is it possible to beam false radar signals that say the plane is flying on its normal course (say, across the Gulf of Thailand), when it is in fact flying in a different direction (say, up into the Straits of Malacca)?

If this is possible (and I don't know whether it is), then the search in the Straits of Malacca - but not on land in either Malaysia or Thailand - suddenly makes sense.

From earlier replies, I gather this is possible if there is some interference by folk on the ground, which would suggest something quite sophisticated.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Hywel
Posted 2014-03-10 15:47:59 and read 78126 times.

I've not seen mention of this yet:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lap-joints-focus-of-new-boeing-777-directive-faa-374597/

Quote:

The US Federal Aviation Administration on 23 July will publish a final airworthiness directive (AD) requiring US operators of approximately 46 Boeing 777-200 and -300 series widebodies to perform repetitive inspections for cracks in the fuselage skin lap splices at several locations on the aircraft.

The AD resulted from reports of fatigue cracks in certain lap joints and inspection are directed at Sections 41, 43 and 44 of the aircraft, says the FAA, noting that Boeing issued a service bulletin to address the potential problem in November 2011.

Cracks were found to have started at scribe lines that were made during production "when maskant was removed from the affected skin panels during the chemical milling process," says the FAA.

"We are issuing this AD to detect and correct such fatigue cracking, which could grow large and cause sudden decompression and the inability to sustain limit flight and pressure loads."

The final AD calls for performing initial and repetitive inspections using external phased-array ultrasonic devices, though Boeing and the FAA have not stated publicly when the initial inspection must be completed. The FAA does say however that damaged joints must be repaired before further flights and inspections on the joints must be performed at least every 4,200 flight cycles thereafter. The directive was first published as a proposed AD in February.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:48:46 and read 77403 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 30):
I did not know the exit doors are equipped to be opened in any environment.

Oh, gosh, I didn't say *that*. I just mean that they have canisters that force open the doors, and at least on some types they are MEL items. If you were at equal pressure underwater I doubt they would help much.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gasman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:49:07 and read 77464 times.

Perhaps something of a 'layman" question, but how is it, in 2014, that we don't know the exact whereabouts of all heavy commercial aircraft in flight?? It's not rocket science to be streaming GPS data to ground stations etc.... whatever exact method might be chosen, surely it's neither insurmountingly difficult or expensive.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-10 15:51:49 and read 76831 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 36):
Oh, gosh, I didn't say *that*. I just mean that they have canisters that force open the doors, and at least on some types they are MEL items. If you were at equal pressure underwater I doubt they would help much.

Sorry about that. I thought that the canisters would allow it to meet the pressure requirements to open.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 15:53:03 and read 76748 times.

Quoting gasman (Reply 37):
Perhaps something of a 'layman" question, but how is it, in 2014, that we don't know the exact whereabouts of all heavy commercial aircraft in flight?? It's not rocket science to be streaming GPS data to ground stations etc.... whatever exact method might be chosen, surely it's neither insurmountingly difficult or expensive.

The system you describe exists, it is called ADS-B, and was used on this flight. It is how websites like FlightAware and FlightRadar24 get their data. And it's not only read by ground stations, satellites can monitor it too.

It is quite literally rocket science, though, as long as you are willing to call "aerospace" rocket science.

It is actually quite expensive.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: peterinlisbon
Posted 2014-03-10 15:55:35 and read 76416 times.

Here is a possible scenario: imagine the two people with false passports were terrorists. When the captain or co-pilot got up to go to the toilet, they rushed him and managed to break into the cockpit. They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target (Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, or some other city). At this point the passengers, having seen what had happened, would not just sit back and relax but rather try to get together and take back control. They ram the cockpit door, at which point the hijackers crash the plane into the sea (which couch have been over the Indian Ocean or the Pacific by this time).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: OTF
Posted 2014-03-10 15:56:46 and read 75957 times.

Perhaps there was an explosion at the front of the plane, severing the cockpit & the rest of the fuselage.
That would explain the sudden loss of all electronics, if these two pieces came down roughly intact I'm sure it wouldn't take long for them to sink to the bottom of the sea.
All the passengers would have been incapacitated well before the fuselage hit the water so no chance of survival, for all we know they could still be strapped into their seats sat on the seabed?
I'm not sure what could have caused the explosion, or even if it was an explosion.
I know the 777 has a fantastic safety record but do we know much about Malaysia Airlines' maintenance records, any previous incidents to do with say metal fatigue?

Apologies, I'm only hypothesizing and I'm relatively new to aviation so I'm sure that idea will sound stupid to some of you.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-10 15:56:58 and read 76028 times.

Quoting marktci (Reply 7):
urely every satellite possible would be looking for a 777 where it doesn't belong)

China has redeployed 10 military satellites to aid in the search

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...ites-deployed-search-missing-plane

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 15:58:18 and read 75504 times.

in reference to swapping "squawk" codes, let's just say that this was a terrorist attack of some kind... They had 1-2 years to plan, and put a lot of people on payroll, in place to accomplish many of these things. Also, a news report is saying that families calling cell phones of those onboard are ringing, some say they have connected then hung up.

Is it impossible for this to be a severely elaborate plan that cause the disappearance of this flight?

If the reports of the cell phones ringing are true, and I will try to find the article in a moment, that means a few things:

1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

thoughts?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:00:04 and read 75101 times.

Quoting OTF (Reply 41):

Perhaps there was an explosion at the front of the plane, severing the cockpit & the rest of the fuselage.
That would explain the sudden loss of all electronics, if these two pieces came down roughly intact I'm sure it wouldn't take long for them to sink to the bottom of the sea.

They would hit the ground at terminal velocity, from the flight levels at least. Pieces of the cabin would break away, and float.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: OTF
Posted 2014-03-10 16:03:42 and read 74556 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 44):
They would hit the ground at terminal velocity, from the flight levels at least. Pieces of the cabin would break away, and float.

Good point, perhaps I was overthinking.
I've been reading this thread since the start so it's been a little bit of an information overload for a rookie like myself!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 16:04:19 and read 74631 times.

This becomes more disconcerting with each day that passes. It should be light soon there. We'll be entering the 4th day with not a single shred of evidence for anything beyond an alleged course change caught on radar.

Even with AF 447 there was more than this after the same period of time.

How does this happen in 2014?

I haven't been able to read much because of work today, but I take it not much more has developed by reading the summaries at the starts of the last 3 topics.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:04:22 and read 74685 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):

Is it impossible for this to be a severely elaborate plan that cause the disappearance of this flight?

No, but what's the motive?

The cell phone thing has been thoroughly debunked in previous posts. You get a dial tone when the last known location of the phone was non-local. Has to go over a "trunk line", so to speak using ancient terminology. Myself and many others have experienced this. You'll get a dial tone while you wait for the network to attempt to connect. Obviously, as the phone is in the drink, it will fail.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 16:04:25 and read 74951 times.

http://www.news24.com/Travel/Flights...s-ring-but-no-one-answers-20140310

passengers phones are ringing... Interesting story. Perhaps something nefarious is happening?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-10 16:04:52 and read 74577 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):

unlikely. If they had connectivity the authorities would take ten minutes to locate them.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: evomutant
Posted 2014-03-10 16:05:58 and read 74334 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

It means none of those things at all. It just means the phone was roaming, as any Chinese cresidents would be for example.

Even if it did, phones check in regulalry with the cell network. You do not need to make or receive a call for the position to be triangulated.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Stabilator
Posted 2014-03-10 16:05:59 and read 74409 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 32):
That is why I believe something very, very bad happened very quickly in the air, because there was no time to communicate.

Even if the plane was experiencing a catastrophic event, either the F/O or Captain would certainly make a distress call. In all my years of g/a training, there has never been an example so severe that it would require me to not send out an emergency signal. Changing the squak to general emergency doesn't take long at all. And while one pilot has "controls" the other pilot/s in the flight deck are usually handling things like emergency checks and radio calls.

In other words, I can think of no event where both pilots in the flight deck would throw crew resource management out the window short of a bomb detonating. In my speculative opinion, either an explosion occurred or someone with significant knowledge of the flight deck (basically, the pilots) turned of the transponder. Even if they did turn the box off, radar would still ping them (i.e. 9/11 - correct me if I am wrong in any of this). It's such a mystery - truly tragic for the family members.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: thunderboltdrgn
Posted 2014-03-10 16:08:56 and read 73466 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 48):
passengers phones are ringing... Interesting story. Perhaps something nefarious is happening?

This have been mentioned many times already.

The latest time it was mentioned was in the previous thread:
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)#215

[Edited 2014-03-10 16:09:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:09:32 and read 73229 times.

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 51):
In all my years of g/a training, there has never been an example so severe that it would require me to not send out an emergency signal

NORDO!

[Edited 2014-03-10 16:11:42]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-10 16:09:47 and read 73254 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
f the reports of the cell phones ringing are true, and I will try to find the article in a moment, that means a few things:

1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

Nah, that means nothing, they can appear to be ringing to the caller although in fact they aren't. Same happened with AF447 in 2009, when a relative of a passenger called the phone it appeared to ring, although in reality it was on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean.

I think someone explained reasons for this phenomenon in previous thread, I'm not sure what exactly causes this to happen...

I really wonder if something a bit like JAL123 could have happened here... Something serious enough to cut communications & damage their ability to control the plane, but still not bad enough to make them crash instantly.

In that case they could have been wandering into pretty much any direction for quite a time before the impact...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: penguins
Posted 2014-03-10 16:10:15 and read 72835 times.

How have the authorities ruled out that the plane did not make it to land? What if we are searching in the wrong places?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gulfstream650
Posted 2014-03-10 16:10:33 and read 72869 times.

Sunrise in Vietnam is NOW. Let's hope a new day will bring us all some news and answers.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-10 16:11:54 and read 72976 times.

Full passenger list - http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/articl...rlines-flight-mh370-passenger-list

RIP for those souls.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:13:08 and read 72458 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 57):
Full passenger list

Published 2 days ago, seen here 2 days ago

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 16:15:09 and read 72074 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 54):
Nah, that means nothing, they can appear to be ringing to the caller although in fact they aren't. Same happened with AF447 in 2009, when a relative of a passenger called the phone it appeared to ring, although in reality it was on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean.

I think someone explained reasons for this phenomenon in previous thread, I'm not sure what exactly causes this to happen...

I really wonder if something a bit like JAL123 could have happened here... Something serious enough to cut communications & damage their ability to control the plane, but still not bad enough to make them crash instantly.

In that case they could have been wandering into pretty much any direction for quite a time before the impact...

Ahh, i see I didn't have time to re-read all 10 previous pages haha, but I think it is still erie as there is no word on the aircraft.

With AF447, everyone knew something major had happened due to the messages that were auto-sent to AF. With this one it seems to have just disappeared off the face of the planet with no wreckage after 3 days. Not one piece.

Would it be possible for some kind of crazy plot to have occurred that would involve the cooperation of ground staff at MH, the pilots, and possibly the passengers? They did have 1-2 years to plan after acquiring the passports, and people have tested boarding flights with stolen passports before.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Mark2fly1034
Posted 2014-03-10 16:15:17 and read 72438 times.

Crowdsourcing the Search for Malaysia Flight 370

Kind of neat article to read. Maybe one of us will fine it.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headline...he-search-for-malaysia-flight-370/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: airbuseric
Posted 2014-03-10 16:17:40 and read 71959 times.

I won't judge about the cause, but following the thread with most interest. Being from flight ops/dispatch myself, I have a strong believe that the aircraft exploded somehow midair, either by explosive, or anything else (cargo dangerous goods, meteorite etc). You can feel, that I have a feeling that this is an act of terrorism to innocent people.

Did someone alreasy link this crash to last weeks knive-murdering incident in Kunming trainstation, China? Act of Tibet/Xinjiang group of Chinese (mostly islamic related) people wanting independancy.
These people indeed have links to the islamic world (no judgement, just saying).

It's also fair to say that Malaysia is an unorganized over corrupt country with a mix of nationalities, but... Muslims want control of Malaysia and want the Chinese population to leave. This is what happens..., ask Chinese Malay people and they can confirm.

Also, KUL security is a joke. From personal experience, my KLM KUL-AMS flight was leaving unsafe, where my friend got 3 "dangerous" (liquid) items onboard, where mine were taken and confiscated. I reported about this matter to the airline representative, but he said it was fine and I can report online with a complaint.
All lunatics!! This is about safety... You can imagine, others can easily try to bring articles onboard. And, how much can we trust the airport staff/security people/loading staff... Malaysia is corrupt, there are internal politic issues, and the flight was heading to China with a lot of Chinese onboard.

A friend of me losses 4 friends, who were onboard MH370... All in their twenties. All only sibling of their parents, who are ages over 60 and loose their only son or daughter... Innocent people died, and despite not knowing the truth of this accident, I feel that this crash is not an accident... Also, China is a bit "quiet" with their statements so far, but things can be linked at some stage, I'm pretty certain about it  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-10 16:21:59 and read 71005 times.

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 56):
Let's hope a new day will bring us all some news and answers

I am not desperate to know - all I am hoping for is resolution so the poor victim's families can get closure one way or another. The endless nothingness is terribly traumatic for people waiting for the (likely) inevitable news to arrive.

And lets also spare a thought for the hundreds/thousands that are involved in the search efforts, that have probably been up the better part of the whole day every day since the report of the plane went missing, either physically searching, or planning, or liaison or any other multitude of things - even just keeping the coffee cups full can be a full time task.

SAR is a difficult and stressful job and finding a wreck and/or dead people is a pretty traumatic experience.

  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:23:30 and read 70838 times.

Quoting airbuseric (Reply 61):
Being from flight ops/dispatch myself, I have a strong believe that the aircraft exploded somehow midair

This is what many of my CPL+ friends think as well, but it's based entirely on the sudden loss of contact in the flight levels. The lack of a debris field near the last point of contact makes that possibility grow weaker by the minute.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-10 16:24:57 and read 70498 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 55):
How have the authorities ruled out that the plane did not make it to land? What if we are searching in the wrong places?

70% earth is covered with water. The probability of a 777 landing anywhere on an unprepared land without breaking apart and catching fire is near zero. With that much amount of fuel burning it is very likely someone will notice the smoke, it could be near by people, overflying aircraft or even weather satellites.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:25:49 and read 70230 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 64):
The probability of a 777 landing anywhere on an unprepared land without breaking apart and catching fire is near zero.

Also the ELT would go off...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 16:26:20 and read 69852 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 62):

I understand what you're saying, but I think that the uncertainty over what happened has to make it very important find out what happened as quickly as possible even for non-family/friends. While I am not of the mind this was a terrorist attack... what if it is? What if it is the opening of a series of attacks?

Even if it's not terrorism, maybe it's something that could happen to others. In these situations, I think it's always a race to find out what happened so as to figure out if it's something that can happen again in a short period of time, thereby maybe preventing a recurrence of the problem and loss of more life.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: btfarrwm
Posted 2014-03-10 16:26:29 and read 70041 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 22):
I agree with that 100 percent and that is partially, almost entirely, why I believe the plane may be intact, but resting at the bottom of the ocean. I know that sounds crazy. If that were the case, however, how long would it take for water to engulf the cabin?

Anyone know if there was valuable art onboard?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: PROSA
Posted 2014-03-10 16:26:49 and read 70261 times.

Something I haven't seen mentioned (though I might have missed it) is that MH suffered one of the first A330 hull losses back in 2000, due to the leakage of hazardous chemicals in the cargo. Could that be a hint as to what happened here?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: solarflyer22
Posted 2014-03-10 16:27:41 and read 70135 times.

Quoting marktci (Reply 7):
1) A hijacking type of incident in which the systems which would otherwise transmit information from the plane were disabled. I don't see the plane having landed safely anywhere (surely every satellite possible would be looking for a 777 where it doesn't belong) and thus has crashed somewhere, possibly some significant amount of time after its last known location.

2) A catastrophic system failure affecting the ability to fly the plane, to communicate (both actively and passively), and possibly to breathe. The plane flies for some distance (either on its own or with some limited inputs) before crashing.
Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 40):



Here is a possible scenario: imagine the two people with false passports were terrorists. When the captain or co-pilot got up to go to the toilet, they rushed him and managed to break into the cockpit. They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target (Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, or some other city). At this point the passengers, having seen what had happened, would not just sit back and relax but rather try to get together and take back control. They ram the cockpit door, at which point the hijackers crash the plane into the sea (which couch have been over the Indian Ocean or the Pacific by this time).



This was my thinking as well but leaning toward number 2.

The gentleman with the stolen passport was described as of African descent. If it had been an Uyghur Chinese man with an axe to grind I might lean toward number 1 but it wasn't.

This scenario is plausible and I thought of something similar. It meets all the criteria we know 1) Can't find the plane because it went off course 2) Transponder disappeared 3) Didn't land safely 4) Might have made a mid air turn 5) No Mayday or squawking.

Problem is that is just a really hard scenario to pull off.

Does anyone know if meals would be served on this overnight flight? I have a hard time seeing them open the cockpit door to take a leak so shortly after takeoff as well. Don't forget it was 2:40 AM local time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: TC957
Posted 2014-03-10 16:28:36 and read 69728 times.

For what it's worth, my guess what could have happened is that the cockpit had some sort of severe decompression, crew initiated an emergency decent ( aviate ) turned round ( navigate ) and before they could don oxygen masks and communicate passed out, leaving the 777 still in the emergency descend mode to it's watery grave. It could then possibly have exceeded Mach 1 on it's way down and broken up in doing so, but then that would have created floating wreckage.
Another possibility is the scenario a QF 744 had a while back in an area not that far from this region with the exploding oxygen cannister.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 16:28:44 and read 69792 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
This is what many of my CPL+ friends think as well, but it's based entirely on the sudden loss of contact in the flight levels. The lack of a debris field near the last point of contact makes that possibility grow weaker by the minute.

I agree. At this point, a mid-air breakup of any type (explosion or otherwise mechanical) seems to be much less likely as each minute passes. Small pieces or not, with the amount of searchers out there, a spread-out debris field would increase the chance that someone sees ANYTHING at all. Up until now we've seen... an oily slick and a cable reel. Of course, there could be other stuff that has been seen but immediately ruled out, but with a wide debris field, there certainly would be a higher chance of a hit, I'd think.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-10 16:31:19 and read 69056 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 66):
I understand what you're saying, but I think that the uncertainty over what happened has to make it very important find out what happened as quickly as possible even for non-family/friends. While I am not of the mind this was a terrorist attack... what if it is? What if it is the opening of a series of attacks?

Even if it's not terrorism, maybe it's something that could happen to others. In these situations, I think it's always a race to find out what happened so as to figure out if it's something that can happen again in a short period of time, thereby maybe preventing a recurrence of the problem and loss of more life.

I wasn't talking from transportation safety boards point of view - they will continue to work as hard as they can until everything has been deciphered and the causal/contributing factors determined as soon as logistically possible...

It is just from the personal point of view, I meant I would rather have them working than spilling their guts to satisfy the now-generation... that's all...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: PHX Flyer
Posted 2014-03-10 16:34:28 and read 68858 times.

Quoting airbuseric (Reply 61):
I have a strong believe that the aircraft exploded somehow midair, either by explosive

Highly unlikely. The explosion would have been picked up by a reconnaissance satellite and there would be eye witness reports by countless marine crew.

No, the plane must have gone down in one piece, and sunken without breaking up. How that happened, I don't want to speculate.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-10 16:34:51 and read 68773 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 47):
The cell phone thing has been thoroughly debunked in previous posts.

It hasn't. I read through all the same posts you did. What people said to refute the cell phone thing were basically these points:

a) Cell phones don't work underwater (making the assumption that they are underwater)

b) Cell phones don't work more than 35km from land (making the assumption that they are more than 35km from land)

c) Most passengers were Chinese, so they were already on a different network (ignoring the fact that many passengers and crew were Malaysian)

d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)

e) The batteries would be dead by now (most would *by now*, but I routinely get 4 days on my phone if I'm not using it, and many passengers keep their phones charged while flying)

f) They haven't found the plane yet, so this *must* be a red herring, because they'd have found it if the cell phones were working

None of these points really debunks/refutes anything as they all rely on assumptions about what happened, and the last one is a particularly obvious example of false logic.

Maybe I missed one post somewhere that went into some technical detail about why the phones physically could not be working. But so far all I've seen is that the phones wouldn't be working under scenarios that the poster thinks are the most likely. But until we know what actually happened to this plane, it seems to me that it's impossible to say that 100% of the phones definitively aren't working. All you can say is that they *probably* aren't. As far as I know, the authorities have never come out and said "we investigated this, and found nothing". The families and MH employees have been trying to get them to look into it; the fact that they don't seem to have ruled it out suggests to me that they either haven't even looked into it, or that they have and they actually found something that's helped inform their search, but won't say so in public because of how the families would react.

Just for the record, there have been plenty of cases of cell phones surviving plane crashes, and responders hearing phones ring as they're working rescue/recovery missions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-10 16:36:42 and read 68466 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 54):
I really wonder if something a bit like JAL123 could have happened here... Something serious enough to cut communications & damage their ability to control the plane, but still not bad enough to make them crash instantly.

This definitely seems like a possibility if not a probability. But with damage so bad that the transponder failed (along with, seemingly, all communications capabilities) how long could the plane have realistically stayed aloft? JAL 123 was something like half an hour after failure. Granted, that is n=1 stuff, hardly scientific. But here I would guess that only a complete loss of electronics could permanently knock out a transponder (I could be wrong though). And with a complete loss of power, I think you're looking at 20 minutes gliding time give or take from the moment of failure (a scenario in which the engines are still generating thrust but all communication equipment has been knocked out seems truly unlikely, though perhaps somebody can think of such a scenario?).

Bottom line though, it seems difficult to imagine that an aircraft could suffer the kind of damage that would knock out all communications flying more than 30 minutes. Let's call it 40.

Am I wrong to conclude that the expanded search area envisions post-failure flight of well over 40 minutes? Which is to say, the search area is at least partially premised on their having been no failure at all but something else at play?

[Edited 2014-03-10 16:39:38]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: F9Animal
Posted 2014-03-10 16:38:50 and read 68344 times.

I am suspicious that investigators know more than they are telling. They seem pretty interested in the stolen passports, and terrorism has been speculated often. Perhaps they do have a claim of responsibility, but are not releasing the info to the public? I can see a reason to not let the public know, as it could hinder the investigation? If it was terrorism, I suspect authorities are working hard to find all responsible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 16:40:21 and read 68195 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 71):
I agree. At this point, a mid-air breakup of any type (explosion or otherwise mechanical) seems to be much less likely as each minute passes. Small pieces or not, with the amount of searchers out there, a spread-out debris field would increase the chance that someone sees ANYTHING at all. Up until now we've seen... an oily slick and a cable reel. Of course, there could be other stuff that has been seen but immediately ruled out, but with a wide debris field, there certainly would be a higher chance of a hit, I'd think.

I saw in that link I posted up-thread about the phones, there was a quick single sentence about the possibility of being highjacked and landed somewhere with plans for future use for the aircraft (terror). While highly improbable, that area of the world is littered with old military airports no longer used that could potentially support a large aircraft, though there would have to be a massive plot, with tons of people in the know.


I hope (though the chances are getting lower by the minute) that the aircraft is found intact somewhere.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Stretch
Posted 2014-03-10 16:40:45 and read 67882 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

Actually, dial tone (of the old land line days) and modern "ringing" are just courtesy tone so you don't hear dead air whilst waiting to connect.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-10 16:45:35 and read 67084 times.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 60):

Very great!


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 16:46:17 and read 66799 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 77):
I saw in that link I posted up-thread about the phones, there was a quick single sentence about the possibility of being highjacked and landed somewhere with plans for future use for the aircraft (terror). While highly improbable, that area of the world is littered with old military airports no longer used that could potentially support a large aircraft, though there would have to be a massive plot, with tons of people in the know.

With a hijacking, I have such a hard time believing it would happen so quickly with post-9/11 security protocols that not a single message would get out.

An uncomfortable thought, of course, is that the crew was in on it. Think Debt of Honor, only without the crash into the Capitol

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 16:48:30 and read 66346 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
It hasn't. I read through all the same posts you did. What people said to refute the cell phone thing were basically these points:

a) Cell phones don't work underwater (making the assumption that they are underwater)

b) Cell phones don't work more than 35km from land (making the assumption that they are more than 35km from land)

c) Most passengers were Chinese, so they were already on a different network (ignoring the fact that many passengers and crew were Malaysian)

d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)

e) The batteries would be dead by now (most would *by now*, but I routinely get 4 days on my phone if I'm not using it, and many passengers keep their phones charged while flying)

f) They haven't found the plane yet, so this *must* be a red herring, because they'd have found it if the cell phones were working

None of these points really debunks/refutes anything as they all rely on assumptions about what happened, and the last one is a particularly obvious example of false logic.

Maybe I missed one post somewhere that went into some technical detail about why the phones physically could not be working. But so far all I've seen is that the phones wouldn't be working under scenarios that the poster thinks are the most likely. But until we know what actually happened to this plane, it seems to me that it's impossible to say that 100% of the phones definitively aren't working. All you can say is that they *probably* aren't. As far as I know, the authorities have never come out and said "we investigated this, and found nothing". The families and MH employees have been trying to get them to look into it; the fact that they don't seem to have ruled it out suggests to me that they either haven't even looked into it, or that they have and they actually found something that's helped inform their search, but won't say so in public because of how the families would react.

Just for the record, there have been plenty of cases of cell phones surviving plane crashes, and responders hearing phones ring as they're working rescue/recovery missions.

I appreciate your summary of the previous posts. Very helpful.

However, for selfish reasons in hoping that somehow this aircraft is intact somewhere... If this is a deeply planned terror plot, what if the phones were not on the aircraft? Kind of makes me think of an episode of "Sherlock" where the british gov't was going to blow up a plane of cadavers to make it look like a terror plot had succeeded. What if the terrorists took all f the phones and left them in Malaysia? Or what if the aircraft somehow made a landing somewhere and the phones ARE actually working, but not being answered?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 16:49:56 and read 66455 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 80):
With a hijacking, I have such a hard time believing it would happen so quickly with post-9/11 security protocols that not a single message would get out.

An uncomfortable thought, of course, is that the crew was in on it. Think Debt of Honor, only without the crash into the Capitol

That is my fear, is they the crew and/or some in the airline knew and were in on it, whatever "it" was.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: smeagol
Posted 2014-03-10 16:52:24 and read 65900 times.

If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later. So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:53:24 and read 65725 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)

Yes, it does. Have you never made an international call and had the ring switch from one tone to another? The first was your network trying to connect to theirs, the second was their network trying to connect to them. It's harder to notice if the tones are the same on both networks, but you will sometimes notice a 'cut' in the signal when it connects. This is exactly what is happening. This is the digital version of an operator switching you over to a trunk line. It's the exact same idea, just sans operator.

What's the theory, anyway? That all of these people are alive and well somewhere with good cell reception, everyone just lets it ring?

It's ridiculous. Honestly the meteor strike theory is more probable.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyKiWi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:53:42 and read 65751 times.

I know it's been discussed before, but in my opinion - if this was a hijacking, or a terrorist act, there would be somebody / some organisation taking responsibility. The 'point' of terrorism, if you can call it that.

Really interested in how this pans out...

And of course hoping for the best.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: RomeoBravo
Posted 2014-03-10 16:55:17 and read 65315 times.

is this lack of progress unprecedented?

i does feel like a real exception that not a trace has been found in such long time.

even things like af447 and sa295 had showed evidence by now. can anyone think of another investigation that moved on so slowly?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 16:55:37 and read 65298 times.

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):
If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later. So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

I feel like that was more of a function of the remote location of the crash site than timing of crash, but it's possible. We're starting Day 4 of light now.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: oly720man
Posted 2014-03-10 16:56:03 and read 65030 times.

Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):

I know it's been discussed before, but in my opinion - if this was a hijacking, or a terrorist act, there would be somebody / some organisation taking responsibility. The 'point' of terrorism, if you can call it that.

unless it was a hijacking to get the plane and the "point" would be where the plane turned up next.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyKiWi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:56:47 and read 64917 times.

Quoting oly720man (Reply 88):
unless it was a hijacking to get the plane and the "point" would be where the plane turned up next.

Very true.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 16:57:38 and read 65120 times.

Quoting RomeoBravo (Reply 86):

is this lack of progress unprecedented?

Not in and of itself, no. In general this is probably the most unique and bizarre aviation disaster I have heard of in over a decade.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Web500sjc
Posted 2014-03-10 16:58:37 and read 64772 times.

Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):
if this was a hijacking,

If this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

It wasn't a hijack.

the only thing that fits in the facts, and remotely fits a hijack idea is if one of the pilots took sole control.

edit

now CNN is quoting US officials, "there are more and more indications that this is not a terror event, but we can't rule that out." The passport people bear the hallmarks of "a human smuggling ring."

I know not a flat out denial, but now we can get to the mundane talk about this disappearance.

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:04:03]

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:05:49]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gyojoo
Posted 2014-03-10 17:01:39 and read 64603 times.

I was looking at Philippine Airlines Flight 434 incident and thought of this

What about a possibility of 2 individuals with a stolen passport sneaking a small bomb aboard, where their intention was to break open the security door to the cockpit.

They set the bomb on the floor in front of cockpit door and sets it off, while it didn't damage the fuselage (since it's more center of the fuselage and not strong enough to cause hull breach), it might do enough damage to avionics below the cockpit area to take out flight controls/communications/electrical loss even killing the crew in the process.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyKiWi
Posted 2014-03-10 17:03:21 and read 63965 times.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 91):
If this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

Or at least a 7500. Unless they really knew what they were doing ... But again, the only reason I decided to post my opinion was to counter the hijack theory. I don't believe it either. And as somebody put it before me - this has been the strangest aviation accident in quite a while. Unless there's facts we're not being told.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: penguins
Posted 2014-03-10 17:03:55 and read 63993 times.

A problem I seem to see with a lot of these theories is that even if the transponder if turned off, won't the plane still return a radar signal, just with no data. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 17:04:34 and read 63745 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 30):
What is the likelihood that anyone survived the impact, if the plane - at least the cabin - stayed intact? Eventually, though, they would run out of oxygen, which could kill them if they are not found.
Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 22):
plane may be intact, but resting at the bottom of the ocean. I know that sounds crazy. If that were the case, however, how long would it take for water to engulf the cabin?

Once a plane sinks it will more or less rapidly fill with water. An airliner is not a submarine.

Not certain how long until the plane fills but I'm pretty sure oax would drown before they succumbed to CO2 poisoning. An hour tops? This would also depend on the pilots preparing the plane for ditching by closing all the valves.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 24):
It's my understanding that aircraft have pressurized canisters on the emergency exits that, when "armed", force the door open and inflate the slide.

They are power assisted when armed but not sure of the gas canister opens the door. I think that may be electrical. Turn the handle and the door opens. The slide is then inflated with a compressed gas cartridge (CO2?). In any case same function in practice.

Quoting samair (Reply 4):
I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything). Based on previous 2 major 777 crashes where the fuselage has remained almost intact. Could it be possible that with a very experienced pilot the aircraft has had a very successful landing but unfortunately sank before people could evacuate?

In search and rescue, you pretty much look until you find the plane.

You're basing an assumption on intact impact. We can't do that.

If a ditching was successful, no way at least some people didn't get into rafts.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 18):


Quoting rc135x (Reply 14):
Does the 777 autopilot have an "auto level off" function, where the cruise altitude is set during climb and the airplane will automatically level off without pilot intervention?

Never flown anything that big, but my understanding is that it is a standard feature on autopilots. You set a maximum climb rate and you set a target altitude and away you go.

Yes such a function exists. More likely, the autoflight system was in VNAV mode, with a defined vertical flight path following waypoints in the FMC.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):

1) Assuming the pilots were not incapacitated (e.g. hypoxia), there has to be a amount of time (e.g. 20 minutes) after a serious event by which point it is a near certainty that the pilots will have tried to contact ATC / declare an emergency. In other words, we all understand aviate, navigate, communicate... but the chances that a serious event occurs and the pilots proceed to aviate for, say, 20 minutes without attempting any communication seems vanishingly small. Granted everything we are hypothesizing has a vanishingly small chance of happening, but is that a reasonable premise?

If you started a search for every plane is 20 minutes late checking in, there'd be a lot of searches.

There are well defined procedures for contact loss and in most cases contact loss means something pretty mundane has happened. I've been out of contact simply because the radio in that particular plane was not the best and combined with atmospheric conditions this prevented me from contacting the next station until I was closer, which took about 10 minutes. No big deal for them or me.

My point is that if contact is lost for even 20 minutes in a sparsely populated area, in most cases it is perhaps a minor equipment problem or something as silly as the pilots switching to the wrong frequency and not noticing for a bit (been there, done that). ATC will try to call, and if they can't get an answer, will call on guard frequency and/or ask other aircraft to relay. Eventually you get hold of whoever and the pilots say "oops, sorry about that" and feel a bit sheepish.

Having said all that, the fact that transponder/ADS-B stopped in an area with good coverage should raise some alerts. And it probably did, at least in so much as, "huh, that guy dropped off the screen. Let me keep an eye on that and see what happens."

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):
2) Any failure that would result in a failure of the transponder and a failure of all communication abilities would be catastrophic. The longest a plane could stay aloft after that would be its glide time. At FL 350 at cruise speed, I have read this would be about 20 minutes. Give or take.

There are possible scenarios where you lose comms and still have engines. Unlikely ones, granted. What if you had an electrical fire in the radio panel? Or, and this is of course way out there, a meteor strike damaging all the antennas.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
If the reports of the cell phones ringing are true, and I will try to find the article in a moment, that means a few things:

1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

AFAIK, all of these cell phone rumors have been false after officials have tried the phones.

Now it may be possible they are ringing, but more likely these stories about phones are because families will make themselves believe anything to keep hope alive. I would.

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 51):
Even if the plane was experiencing a catastrophic event, either the F/O or Captain would certainly make a distress call. In all my years of g/a training, there has never been an example so severe that it would require me to not send out an emergency signal. Changing the squak to general emergency doesn't take long at all. And while one pilot has "controls" the other pilot/s in the flight deck are usually handling things like emergency checks and radio calls.

AF447 never made a distress call. Yes, changing the transponder code or calling does not take long, but sometimes the crew is immersed in a problem.

Quoting penguins (Reply 55):
How have the authorities ruled out that the plane did not make it to land? What if we are searching in the wrong places?

I don't think they have ruled that out.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 59):
With AF447, everyone knew something major had happened due to the messages that were auto-sent to AF. With this one it seems to have just disappeared off the face of the planet with no wreckage after 3 days. Not one piece.

The major difference is that AF447 had automated ACARS reporting for maintenance, while MH370 seemingly did not. If AF447 hadn't had ACARS reporting, it too would have vanished like this.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 91):
Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):
if this was a hijacking,

If this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

It wasn't a hijack.

Too many assumptions. For example, what if the flight crew were the hijackers?

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:16:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 17:06:23 and read 63531 times.

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):

If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later. So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

They found the debris in about a day or two.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-10 17:09:01 and read 63113 times.

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):
If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later.

Some debris was observe on the afternoon of June 1 from C-130 aircraft flying over the presumed area of lost contact.

Of course a C-130 can't land in mid-ocean and recover debris.

The first ships arrived at the AF447 debris location on June 3. Two male bodies and major debris were recovered on June 6.


The debris from AF447 apparently did not sink. But came from the impact which cracked the fuselage as the plane hit the water. The initially recovered debris show heavy downward crushing damage from the G forces of impact. When the BEA released the data about high vertical speed but low forward speed and a basically flat impact - it greatly confused the experts. It was hard to create a scenario where a largely intact aircraft could strike the surface in that manner.

Eventually we learned the pilots maintained lateral stability and kept the aircraft from rolling inverted as it naturally would want to do in a low airspeed stall. Many people would not have believed it possible to keep the aircraft in such an attitude for that long.

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):
So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

Given the water is under 200 feet deep in the primary search location - the possibility of floating debris surfacing close to any wreckage exists. However, after 72 hours, almost all floatable debris would have already surfaced.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-10 17:09:58 and read 62926 times.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 40):
They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target (Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, or some other city).

If that was their intention, I think they would have picked up a day flight. Trying to find your target at night would be very hard.

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 73):
No, the plane must have gone down in one piece, and sunken without breaking up.

I don´t think so. Ditching is very dangerous, specially at night. That Pan Am propliner that ditched en route to Hawaii circled for hours waiting for daybreak to ditch. Even Sully´s A320 suffered major damage with what was seemingly a nice, soft landing in the river. If it ditched, I think that at least it would have broken up in a few big pieces and the engines torn off. I also think rescuers would have also picked up survivors, at least a few would have made it out.

It´s a matter of time until they find something. But I doubt they are going to find it intact. I´m also inclined to think the authorities are not telling the whole story, which is part of the reason why this has gotten more confusing by the day.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: awthompson
Posted 2014-03-10 17:13:02 and read 63045 times.

Here's one to think about. In the SFO Asiana crash last year which was rather violent involving a collision with a sea wall followed by a semi cartwheel type manoeuvre (watch video if you haven't seen it) from wing tip to wing tip, the fuselage remained rather intact.

Older designs of aircraft including the B737/MD80 etc have been seen in accidents to break apart at various points.

I learn from this that the B777 is a sturdy design, one that might stand up better in a controlled ditching than we realize. Perhaps engines and some parts would separate, again similar to Asiana 214 but for wings to stay attached and the fuselage to stay largely in one piece.

I believe hence it is possible for 9M-MRO to have ditched with enough deceleration forces to incapacitate the majority of persons on board but for the aeroplane to stay largely intact, just like the Asiana 214 hulk, but to suffer enough perforations to sink quite rapidly.

This is the only scenario which I can see that results in very little surface debris, but at the same time accounts for lack of slides/rafts/survivors on the surface. Also it is quite unnerving that some survivors could have gotten out, only to be missed by search aircraft.

The part that is difficult to accept is how some control could have been maintained but yet there was no working equipment to enable emergency communication in some form.

Also why has an ELT signal not been received.

If in the next few days no wreckage is found, the above scenario will have to be assumed. A full seabed search will have to begin at square one where the surface search began back on Saturday. There will of course be less urgency by that stage knowing that the 'rescue' phase will be long since over and only the 'search' and 'recovery' phases will remain.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2014-03-10 17:13:03 and read 63174 times.

The lack of progress is however making people think out of the box. I just came across the Tomnod website which is using a form of crowdsourcing to have people around the world look at sat images of the region. (This was mentioned upstream in this thread)

Very cool idea (and yes, I spent about 15 min. tagging images).

This is also why the area of investigation is now being widened. It's clear to most if not all that there's no plane in the Gulf of Thailand I suppose.

Malaysian Officials Expand Search Area

Quote:
The three significant leads that officials had in the search for the missing Malaysian Airlines jetliner that disappeared Saturday failed to pan out, and underscore the fact that, despite the wealth of safety and emergency equipment on the plane, modern technology is unquestionably fallible.

Indeed, Malaysian authorities said Monday ...

.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-10 17:14:29 and read 62878 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 5):
Not at all. It is hugely prevalent (if not mandatory) still (at least here in Europe),

Interesting - I did not know that. Maybe it has to do with
1) Density of radar systems
2) The fact that radar was largely deployed in Europe first (due to the wars).

Quoting rc135x (Reply 14):
Does the 777 autopilot have an "auto level off" function, where the cruise altitude is set during climb and the airplane will automatically level off without pilot intervention?

Yes - it could do this.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 23):
Does the lack of fuel in the ocean mean that the fuel tanks held up? If so, does that mean the wings are not damaged?

No. The fuel would rapidly disperse. Most likely it means we have not found it.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 24):
If the outflow valves were closed, the pressure would make it easier to open than normal... If those systems were working normally, the pressure would have normalized and it would be like opening a car door (underwater - nearly impossible). It's my understanding that aircraft have pressurized canisters on the emergency exits that, when "armed", force the door open and inflate the slide.
Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 30):
hank you for that response as well. I did not know the exit doors are equipped to be opened in any environment

On both these - wait a minute.
Number of problems here.
First - the aircraft is designed to withstand a differential of high pressure inside and low outside. The same structure cannot handle the opposite in any great extent. An aircraft would crush/leak very rapidly if submerged far.
Assume an a/c at 35000 ft is pressurized to about 6000 ft, the differential will be about 8.5psi.
That same pressure differential exists under water in the opposite direction - at about 19ft deep

So
- if the a/c remained pressurized to 8.5psi
- and gently sank to about 20 feet - the pressure would be about the same and the door could open easily (except for the drag of water compared to air.
- Below 20 feet, if you could release the handle - it would open quickly - the doors are designed to resist the opposite pressure. (shear force on the latch may well prevent the handle from being opened).

Of course - the idea that the aircraft could sink 20 feet intact with no leaks is silly. Maybe if you had a crane to lower it in. No conceivable crash/ditching would be gentle enough. It would leak.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 40):
They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target

I doubt this could happen fast enough for the PF (isolated in the cockpit) to not get out a message. This would be a case where aviating and navigating are done - so communicate. That does not count if the crew were the ones fighting - like Egypt air 990

Quoting OTF (Reply 41):
severing the cockpit & the rest of the fuselage

The aerodynamic forces on the fuselage at cruise speed with the front blown off would rip the a/c to pieces. It would not remain intact.

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 51):
Even if the plane was experiencing a catastrophic event, either the F/O or Captain would certainly make a distress call

It has happened in many cases.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)
Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
None of these points really debunks/refutes anything as they all rely on assumptions about what happened, and the last one is a particularly obvious example of false logic.

Sorry. You are incorrect. The system most certainly will generate a ring while looking for the phone. Often you can hear the ring tone changes when the local system hands off to the remote system when the phone is located, but the local system generates the ring. I've actually used this as a trigger to hang up when calling a colleague who often travels from the US to India. I can tell by the ring tone change he is in India and it is probably the middle of the night so I should not bother him.

Rings heard by the caller can happen when the target phone is off or off the network. The fact that you hear ring tones does not mean the system is talking to the phone.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
and responders hearing phones ring as they're working rescue/recovery missions.

Nobody denies that. It can and has happened. Cell phones are often used to report emergencies including plane crashes.

However, in this case, if the phones were connected to the network, we'd know what tower/towers they are talking to and we'd have a much smaller area to search. Not only that - based on time delays, they can predict how far from the tower.

I cannot accept the premise that the search area is wide and widening and officials are saying "we don't know where it is", IF we had even one passenger/crew cell phone talking to a tower. We'd know immediately the area to look in.

-bg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: thunderboltdrgn
Posted 2014-03-10 17:15:47 and read 62898 times.

According to the Mirror the Iranians intended to "migrate to Europe"

"The two passengers travelling on stolen passports on missing Malaysia Airlines
flight MH370 are reportedly Iranian nationals.

An Iranian friend of one of the men told BBC Persia he hosted the pair in Kuala Lumpur
after they arrived from Tehran in the days preceding their flight to Beijing.

The source, who claimed he knew one of the men from his school days in Iran, said the
duo had bought the fake passports because they wanted to migrate to Europe.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...-flight-live-3219331#ixzz2vbnF7k1f

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:17:05]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-10 17:16:38 and read 62237 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 95):
If AF447 hadn't had ACARS reporting, it too would have vanished like this.

Well, at least some floating wreckage was found in the AF 447 case 5 days later (http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/discovery.of.the.wreckage.pdf). So, not totally vanished. Note that AF 447 vanished in a remote area so it took 5 days; MH 370 has disappeared in a very busy area with a lot of shipping and air traffic so it should be reasonable to expect locating debris much earlier than 5 days; if not debris then at least an oil slick!!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:17:07 and read 62493 times.

I initially thought bomb or catastrophic event like I think most people here. But after reading 11 pages of posts, I have a new theory...

Chinese Espionage (I originally thought Iranian, but I don't think it would have the range).

I know it is a bit far fetched. But hear me out. Like many have said, the timing of it all conveniently fits with the Captain going to the bathroom (or the First Officer, but the Captain seems to be more reputable). It is likely that the First Officer turned off the transponder and stopped communicating.

This of course has been proposed already. The problem: no plane?

But think about it. If the First Officer had been recruited by the Chinese government, they could have provided him with a flight plan that would have avoided all ground based radar (or simply just kept the radar details a secret). And given that they had enough fuel to land just about anywhere in China, there could be a remote, secret landing strip that easily could have handled a 777 landing.

And it isn't like they haven't tried to re-engineer a plane from scratch before in the past.

I admit, it's out there. But it's also just about the only thing that explains all the peculiarities to this scenario (no primary radar, no ACARS, no wreckage).

Hell, even the missing 20 employees from Freescale Semiconductor could be of good use as prisoners. And most people on the plane were Chinese. One could argue, why not just do it with a China Southern 777, but it might raise more supspecion than a missing, "for sure crashed" airplane.

Just some thoughts trying to put all the pieces together.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: awthompson
Posted 2014-03-10 17:20:27 and read 61900 times.

Here's one to think about. In the SFO Asiana crash last year which was rather violent involving a collision with a sea wall followed by a semi cartwheel type manoeuvre (watch video if you haven't seen it) from wing tip to wing tip, the fuselage remained rather intact.

Older designs of aircraft including the B737/MD80 etc have been seen in accidents to break apart at various points.

I learn from this that the B777 is a sturdy design, one that might stand up better in a controlled ditching than we realize. Perhaps engines and some parts would separate, again similar to Asiana 214 but for wings to stay attached and the fuselage to stay largely in one piece.

I believe hence it is possible for 9M-MRO to have ditched with enough deceleration forces to incapacitate the majority of persons on board but for the aeroplane to stay largely intact, just like the Asiana 214 hulk, however to suffer enough perforations to sink quite rapidly.

This is the only scenario which I can see that results in very little or no surface debris, but at the same time accounts for lack of slides/rafts/survivors on the surface. Also it is quite unnerving that some survivors could have gotten out, only to be missed by search aircraft in open sea.

This scenario would also fit with no explosion having been seen or heard, and no clear seismic record being recorded of a high speed impact with the sea surface.

The part that is difficult to accept is how some control could have been maintained but yet there was no working equipment to enable emergency communication in some form although there are certainly some remote scenarios where this could be possible.

Also why has an ELT signal not been located

If in the next few days no wreckage is found, the above scenario will have to be assumed. A full seabed search will have to begin at square one where the surface search began back on Saturday. There will of course be less urgency by that stage knowing that the 'rescue' phase will be long since over and only the 'search' and 'recovery' phases remain.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 17:21:57 and read 61871 times.

Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):
I know it's been discussed before, but in my opinion - if this was a hijacking, or a terrorist act, there would be somebody / some organisation taking responsibility. The 'point' of terrorism, if you can call it that.

Really interested in how this pans out...

And of course hoping for the best.

Not if THIS highjacking wasn't the "end result" planned.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 84):
What's the theory, anyway? That all of these people are alive and well somewhere with good cell reception, everyone just lets it ring?

I am not saying the passengers are alive, and letting their phones ring, but that their phones were never on the flight as one option, or someone else (possibly high jackers) have the phones.

Quoting oly720man (Reply 88):
unless it was a hijacking to get the plane and the "point" would be where the plane turned up next.

That is the scary thought if the plane actually made an unscheduled landing somewhere secret.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 91):
f this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

It wasn't a hijack.

the only thing that fits in the facts, and remotely fits a hijack idea is if one of the pilots took sole control.

edit

now CNN is quoting US officials, "there are more and more indications that this is not a terror event, but we can't rule that out." The passport people bear the hallmarks of "a human smuggling ring."

I know not a flat out denial, but now we can get to the mundane talk about this disappearance.

There would have been a call of some kind, unless the crew were in on it, not saying they were, but EVERYONE has a price. (money, threat to family, etc)

Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 93):
Or at least a 7500. Unless they really knew what they were doing ... But again, the only reason I decided to post my opinion was to counter the hijack theory. I don't believe it either. And as somebody put it before me - this has been the strangest aviation accident in quite a while. Unless there's facts we're not being told.

If the highjacking were well planned, and involved the crew, and some passengers, and airline employees on the ground, or possibly ATC.

Quoting penguins (Reply 94):
A problem I seem to see with a lot of these theories is that even if the transponder if turned off, won't the plane still return a radar signal, just with no data. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Unless it flies below radar, which in some areas can be 10,000 feet.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 95):
They are power assisted when armed but not sure of the gas canister opens the door. I think that may be electrical. Turn the handle and the door opens. The slide is then inflated with a compressed gas cartridge (CO2?). In any case same function in practice.

On "most" airliners today, there are 2 gas systems for the doors, the 747 for example, and I believe the 777 as well, there is a gas cylinder of assist in the opening of the doors that is activated after a 1/4 turn of the door handle once cracked. This opens the door fully allowing the slide to engage the second gas system, the slide inflation.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 95):
The major difference is that AF447 had automated ACARS reporting for maintenance, while MH370 seemingly did not. If AF447 hadn't had ACARS reporting, it too would have vanished like this.

But does MH have the system installed? If they do, it could have been inhibited from transmitting anything. If they do not have they kind of system installed, then we won't know anything.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-10 17:22:16 and read 61683 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 94):
A problem I seem to see with a lot of these theories is that even if the transponder if turned off, won't the plane still return a radar signal, just with no data. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You are correct, to an extent, but it is not as simple as that. The direct return is called primary radar. The transponder return is secondary. Secondary has much larger range and most ATC systems do not use primary much (apparently Europe does.) I posted something about that in the last thread -

So - the aircraft could easily be in range for secondary, and not for primary.

There have been reports of military radar seeing the aircraft turn after transponder was lost.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-10 17:22:42 and read 61777 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 104):
Chinese Espionage (I originally thought Iranian, but I don't think it would have the range).

But think about it. If the First Officer had been recruited by the Chinese government, they could have provided him with a flight plan that would have avoided all ground based radar (or simply just kept the radar details a secret). And given that they had enough fuel to land just about anywhere in China, there could be a remote, secret landing strip that easily could have handled a 777 landing.

Now now, i know that we all are speclating over 10 parts of this thread; now i think you are taking it to a new level!!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:24:25 and read 61491 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 108):
Now now, i know that we all are speclating over 10 parts of this thread; now i think you are taking it to a new level!!

I'll give you. It's a bit crazy. But then again, so are random planes in remote Chinese deserts: Google Map Link

I am just saying, it does explain the evidence at hand thus far.

Just for the record, I am not saying it is here. This would be out of range I think. But an example of China doing some weird things and clearly having the ability to get planes to places that don't have established airstrips.

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:47:31]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: hoMsAr
Posted 2014-03-10 17:29:05 and read 60749 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 104):
Chinese Espionage (I originally thought Iranian, but I don't think it would have the range).

I know it is a bit far fetched. But hear me out. Like many have said, the timing of it all conveniently fits with the Captain going to the bathroom (or the First Officer, but the Captain seems to be more reputable). It is likely that the First Officer turned off the transponder and stopped communicating.

This of course has been proposed already. The problem: no plane?

But think about it. If the First Officer had been recruited by the Chinese government, they could have provided him with a flight plan that would have avoided all ground based radar (or simply just kept the radar details a secret). And given that they had enough fuel to land just about anywhere in China, there could be a remote, secret landing strip that easily could have handled a 777 landing.

And it isn't like they haven't tried to re-engineer a plane from scratch before in the past.

I admit, it's out there. But it's also just about the only thing that explains all the peculiarities to this scenario (no primary radar, no ACARS, no wreckage).

Hell, even the missing 20 employees from Freescale Semiconductor could be of good use as prisoners. And most people on the plane were Chinese. One could argue, why not just do it with a China Southern 777, but it might raise more supspecion than a missing, "for sure crashed" airplane.

Just some thoughts trying to put all the pieces together.

Wait...you're suggesting that they concocted this highly elaborate scheme just to steal a 777 so they could reverse-engineer it, rather than using one of the many jets Chinese airlines already own? How on earth could that raise less suspicion than just pulling one of their own jets out of service (for storage, or maintenance, or whatever)? And something like that could easily start a large-scale war if discovered.

Sounds like confusing a James Bond movie plot with reality.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: dirktraveller
Posted 2014-03-10 17:31:11 and read 60479 times.

The Malaysian media updated that the search extended up to Sumatra in Indonesia and waters around Hong Kong.

It would be surprising if the flight managed to flew as far as Sumatra or Hong Kong undetected, even with their transponders being off??

Again I'm not sure the technical details of the aircraft, but if somehow it did fly up to HK or Sumatra wouldn't the military radar in either Indonesia or Vietnam/Thailand picked up about this mysterious flight? Any thoughts? Do correct me if I'm wrong on this one..

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...ssing--says-airline-023820132.html

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:33:18]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: thunderboltdrgn
Posted 2014-03-10 17:33:28 and read 59854 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 109):
But then again, so are random planes in remote Chinese deserts

My apologies but your link goes to some Turkish farmland in Balıkesir Çanakkale Yolu
Hurma /Çanakkale and not some Chinese desert.

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:34:35]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:35:07 and read 59573 times.

Quoting hoMsAr (Reply 110):
Wait...you're suggesting that they concocted this highly elaborate scheme just to steal a 777 so they could reverse-engineer it, rather than using one of the many jets Chinese airlines already own? How on earth could that raise less suspicion than just pulling one of their own jets out of service (for storage, or maintenance, or whatever)? And something like that could easily start a large-scale war if discovered.

Again. Just a speculation. But to answer your direct question (which I already somewhat addressed in the first post when mentioning China Southern's 777), you need more than a D-check maintenance cycle to reverse engineer a plane. It would take years to do it.

You didn't see the reverse engineering of the downed F-117 in 1999 until around 2011. If a China Southern 777 went missing for 12 years, someone would notice eventually.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...S-fighter-develop-stealth-jet.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 17:35:58 and read 59483 times.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 99):

Here's one to think about. In the SFO Asiana crash last year which was rather violent involving a collision with a sea wall followed by a semi cartwheel type manoeuvre (watch video if you haven't seen it) from wing tip to wing tip, the fuselage remained rather intact.

Older designs of aircraft including the B737/MD80 etc have been seen in accidents to break apart at various points.

I learn from this that the B777 is a sturdy design, one that might stand up better in a controlled ditching than we realize. Perhaps engines and some parts would separate, again similar to Asiana 214 but for wings to stay attached and the fuselage to stay largely in one piece.

Too many assumptions. Crashes are all different and we don't know what would have happened to a 737 or M80 in the Asiana case. As mentioned a few threads ago, the 777 is as strong as it needs to be in order to withstand service loads and certification requirements. Boeing are not in the business of making structures unnecessarily heavy for the remote case where a pilot decides to try landing on a sea wall.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:37:06 and read 59226 times.

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 112):
My apologies but your link goes to some Turkish farmland in Balıkesir Çanakkale Yolu
Hurma /Çanakkale and not some Chinese desert.

Sorry. Google Maps Beta is the worst at linking. Try this: http://g.co/maps/vgdf7

Also, I didn't post this one before, but here is a remote airstrip in the desert: http://g.co/maps/375xc - again, not that MH370 had the range for this in particular, but I am sure there are others.

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:48:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 17:37:13 and read 59221 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 109):
I'll give you. It's a bit crazy. But then again, so are random planes in remote Chinese deserts: Google Map Link

I am just saying, it does explain the evidence at hand thus far.

I don't think it's too crazy, except for the motive... I doubt the motive is trying to re-engineer an airplane. I think that if the aircraft indeed landed somewhere the motive is more sinister.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: kann123air
Posted 2014-03-10 17:37:38 and read 59529 times.

Please don't flame me if this is clearly a wrong hypothesis, but....

Factoring in the last known position (about 170 miles south of the Tho Chu island, according to wikipedia), did a rough calculation as to how far it could've gone until running out of fuel, if everyone onboard was incapacitated.

428 knots-filed speed according to flightaware. This is equal to 492.534 mph.
The plane had about 7.5 hours of fuel left, according to wikipedia. At 492.534 mph, it could've theoretically gone a total of 3694 miles more. Roughly judging what direction the aircraft was going, I came up with this:


How far MAS370 could've gone with fuel remaining by kann123air, on Flickr

Is this possible?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:39:56 and read 58971 times.

Quoting kann123air (Reply 117):
Is this possible?

I think the issue with this is that it would have been spotted by South Korean radar (and Chinese for that matter).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Web500sjc
Posted 2014-03-10 17:40:04 and read 59010 times.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
Also why has an ELT signal not been located

The water is attenuating the ELT signal, further more ELTs only have to have a battery for 24 hours, so the ELT is dead.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
I believe hence it is possible for 9M-MRO to have ditched with enough deceleration forces to incapacitate the majority of persons on board but for the aeroplane to stay largely intact, just like the Asiana 214 hulk, however to suffer enough perforations to sink quite rapidly.

Smoke inhalation could have done the same thing.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
The part that is difficult to accept is how some control could have been maintained but yet there was no working equipment to enable emergency communication in some form although there are certainly some remote scenarios where this could be possible.

When normally set up, an airplane is a very stable. Commercial airplanes are designed with positive static and dynamic stability. this means that if disturbed from a trimmed attitude, the airplane will naturally return to the trimmed altitude.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 98):
I don´t think so. Ditching is very dangerous, specially at night.

Just as an anecdote, There is a professor who flies a jet at my university. Every time he goes to recurrent training, for his "fun flight", he practices an approach to 0/0 minimums. In other words he lands the airplane without any outside references, in a jet that is not actually certified for this type of jet. (He only does this incase he must use those skills, not so he can use them.) The way he pulls of this landing successfully is pitch and power. He set the power for approach and the pitch for the approach - and then holds the airplane down the Glide slope in this configuration- bringing the power to idle, and the pitch slightly up when the radar altimeter announces 20 feet. hand flown 0/0 approach. Im not saying it is easy, Im not saying i would ever try it, but I am sure it can be done.

edit

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118):
I think the issue with this is that it would have been spotted by South Korean radar (and Chinese for that matter).

or Russia, Japan, and North Korea.

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:46:12]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: glideslope
Posted 2014-03-10 17:42:18 and read 58214 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 98):
It´s a matter of time until they find something. But I doubt they are going to find it intact. I´m also inclined to think the authorities are not telling the whole story, which is part of the reason why this has gotten more confusing by the day.

Agreed. Several items, IMO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-10 17:43:07 and read 58297 times.

Quoting kann123air (Reply 117):
At 492.534 mph, it could've theoretically gone a total of 3694 miles more. Roughly judging what direction the aircraft was going, I came up with this:

It's theoretically possible assuming that whatever knocked the transponder out did not otherwise impact the plane's flying ability. But it seems impossible that a plane could fly over much of China's eastern seaboard without it being picked up by Chinese military radar, which would detect the plane regardless of the transponder's status.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 17:45:20 and read 57954 times.

If the plane broke apart (for whatever reason) in the area of its last known location then I would have expected some debris to be found by now - anything at all. And that has not happened which leads me to believe that the following scenarios are starting to become more possible:

1- The plane successfully ditched on water, remained intact and sunk. The engines broke off but they sunk too. Yes, very hard to do at night, but it would have given plenty of time for the plane to sink before sunrise.

2- The plane went down in a remote / jungle type area after it tried to return to KL - an area in which the vegetation would make the wreckage difficult to spot from air.

3- The plane had a mechanical problem (for whatever reason) but flew a lot farther than first thought and went down in a totally different area. For instance, would it be possible for all electronics to just die?

4- The plane was taken and ditched / crashed far off course or even might have landed somewhere in secret.

Let's just hope something is discovered today. The two with the stolen passports may have been involved in an act of terror or maybe they were just drug couriers or people seeking asylum? I just think that too much emphasis has been placed in the media on the two fake passports when they haven't found a single part of the plane yet and it is apparently not uncommon to use fake passports in that part of the world. If there are survivors out there then I'd guess that they are running out of time. Whatever the outcome and cause, I would hope that it is looked into how a large commercial airliner was just able to vanish and be undetected for so long in order to prevent airliners from just going 'missing' in the future.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: smeagol
Posted 2014-03-10 17:45:32 and read 58059 times.

777 Fleet in China:

CA: 25 (772A and 77W)
CZ: 17 (772A, 772ER and 77W)
MU: 4x77W will be delivered by end of 2014

If you think China is so hungry to get the technology, tell me why China will make all the way to "steal" a MH 772ER in service and with 153 Chinese onboard? Instead of ground one all their own 777 and do what they want to do?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flydeltajets
Posted 2014-03-10 17:45:34 and read 57982 times.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 40):
Here is a possible scenario: imagine the two people with false passports were terrorists. When the captain or co-pilot got up to go to the toilet, they rushed him and managed to break into the cockpit. They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target

Even if they switched the transponder off wouldn't there still be a target, just with no identifier? At least for the time the plane remained airborne.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 17:47:26 and read 57564 times.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):

Also why has an ELT signal not been located

Does not work under water unless it is floating. Water is very difficult for anything but high-power low-frequency radio to get through.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-10 17:50:10 and read 56924 times.

Quoting flydeltajets (Reply 124):
Even if they switched the transponder off wouldn't there still be a target, just with no identifier? At least for the time the plane remained airborne.

I asked a similar question, about expected coverage and recording/archiving of primary radar in the region.

I was told by someone in this thread who allegedly has worked ATC, that there is not often primary radar in the flight levels on the civilian side at least at these stations, and that the range is 60nm or so. Other people had commented previously that they had worked with PSR with greater range.

We don't know. It's entirely possible that there was a primary return on military radar, and they are not sharing that with us.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-10 17:52:55 and read 57009 times.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 119):
or Russia, Japan, and North Korea.

and the US military.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2014-03-10 17:54:45 and read 56775 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 109):

Yeah no. Plenty of Chinese Airlines own 777s. And the government could acquire one in ways that don't involve hijacking.
Plus - if China did want it - why not wait until the plane was near Chinese Airspace? The pilot could land it in China and the gov could seal radar records.

Has there been any search further into the South China Sea away from the Gulf?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:54:51 and read 56785 times.

Quoting smeagol (Reply 123):
If you think China is so hungry to get the technology, tell me why China will make all the way to "steal" a MH 772ER in service and with 153 Chinese onboard? Instead of ground one all their own 777 and do what they want to do?

As I stated when someone else questioned the same thing, you can't keep a 777 in a D-Check for 12 years. Sooner or later, someone is going to ask a question as to where that plane ended up.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 113):
Again. Just a speculation. But to answer your direct question (which I already somewhat addressed in the first post when mentioning China Southern's 777), you need more than a D-check maintenance cycle to reverse engineer a plane. It would take years to do it.

You didn't see the reverse engineering of the downed F-117 in 1999 until around 2011. If a China Southern 777 went missing for 12 years, someone would notice eventually.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...S-fighter-develop-stealth-jet.html





Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 119):
or Russia, Japan, and North Korea.

Agreed, but Russia and North Korea are hardly forth coming. And Japan seemed like it might have been too far off, but you're probably right.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: zoom1018
Posted 2014-03-10 17:55:11 and read 56613 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 15):

I am not sure if it would work but why do they not attach something works like a mobile phone in the black box? The last time I read the black box could only transmit signal within 100Km or something...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: kann123air
Posted 2014-03-10 17:56:39 and read 56608 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118):
I think the issue with this is that it would have been spotted by South Korean radar (and Chinese for that matter).
Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 119):
or Russia, Japan, and North Korea.
Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 121):
But it seems impossible that a plane could fly over much of China's eastern seaboard without it being picked up by Chinese military radar, which would detect the plane regardless of the transponder's status.
Quoting 747megatop (Reply 127):
and the US military.

Agreed. What about this scenario? I brought the line just a few degrees east.

MAS370 2 by kann123air, on Flickr

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: chrisrad
Posted 2014-03-10 17:57:09 and read 56613 times.

Why isn't this appearing on more news sites?

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 102):
According to the Mirror the Iranians intended to "migrate to Europe"

"The two passengers travelling on stolen passports on missing Malaysia Airlines
flight MH370 are reportedly Iranian nationals.

An Iranian friend of one of the men told BBC Persia he hosted the pair in Kuala Lumpur
after they arrived from Tehran in the days preceding their flight to Beijing.

The source, who claimed he knew one of the men from his school days in Iran, said the
duo had bought the fake passports because they wanted to migrate to Europe.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...F7k1f

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 17:58:21 and read 56284 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 128):
Yeah no. Plenty of Chinese Airlines own 777s. And the government could acquire one in ways that don't involve hijacking.

I have answered above twice why I think their 777s disappearing would raise alarm bells sooner or later. In an odd way, a plane disappearing in the ocean seems more "accepting" than a missing China Southern 777 for multiple years.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 128):
Plus - if China did want it - why not wait until the plane was near Chinese Airspace? The pilot could land it in China and the gov could seal radar records.

Because there isn't a 'vast' ocean for it to disappear in.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaAtl
Posted 2014-03-10 18:00:41 and read 55932 times.

May sound stupid but has anyone tried the find my iPhone app? Like I have my daughters info if she loses hers-

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 18:02:07 and read 55449 times.

Quoting chrisrad (Reply 132):
Why isn't this appearing on more news sites?

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 102):
According to the Mirror the Iranians intended to "migrate to Europe"

"The two passengers travelling on stolen passports on missing Malaysia Airlines
flight MH370 are reportedly Iranian nationals.

An Iranian friend of one of the men told BBC Persia he hosted the pair in Kuala Lumpur
after they arrived from Tehran in the days preceding their flight to Beijing.

The source, who claimed he knew one of the men from his school days in Iran, said the
duo had bought the fake passports because they wanted to migrate to Europe.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...F7k1f

Exactly.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 18:02:17 and read 55572 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 133):
Because there isn't a 'vast' ocean for it to disappear in.

Good point, but WOULD the Chinese really go to all this trouble to make a second rate copy of a 777?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Web500sjc
Posted 2014-03-10 18:04:30 and read 55123 times.

Quoting kann123air (Reply 131):
Agreed. What about this scenario? I brought the line just a few degrees east.

more plausible, but you still going to pass close to Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and Okinawa (Major US military base).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 18:05:32 and read 55054 times.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 137):
more plausible, but you still going to pass close to Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and Okinawa (Major US military base).

Unless EVERYONE is in on it to blame Iran?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 18:08:06 and read 54798 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 136):
Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 133):
Because there isn't a 'vast' ocean for it to disappear in.

Good point, but WOULD the Chinese really go to all this trouble to make a second rate copy of a 777?

Also, why pick this flight?

If it was down to a breakdown of nationalities that would make such a plot look less suspicious, would the Chinese be able to determine the breakdown of nationalities on the flight well enough in advance to determine what flight to pick?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2014-03-10 18:08:57 and read 54545 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 133):

The Chinese government owns Boeings - not 777s but they've had access to (IIRC) a 737, 747, and 767. Remember the whole mess over the bugged 767?

It wouldn't be too hard to partially reverse engineer the plane from repeated Heavy checks correct? Or, you know - Boeing Technical Documents CZ has...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Boeing717200
Posted 2014-03-10 18:12:21 and read 53702 times.

Quoting DeltaAtl (Reply 134):

Probably because you need it to communicate in order to work.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 18:12:37 and read 53715 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 139):
If it was down to a breakdown of nationalities that would make such a plot look less suspicious, would the Chinese be able to determine the breakdown of nationalities on the flight well enough in advance to determine what flight to pick?

Well, all booking info would have been sent to china for Customs purposes... How far in advance is unknown. Also, if this is the case, surely they could have bribed an agent in PEK to pull the data from the RES system a few days/week in advance.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-10 18:13:45 and read 53872 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 106):
But does MH have the system installed? If they do, it could have been inhibited from transmitting anything. If they do not have they kind of system installed, then we won't know anything.

It was the lack of transmissions which alerted Air France maintenance to look harder at the ACARS messages. And to request Air France Ops contact the aircraft. If a hijacker or a crash, inhibits an ACARS regular position reporting system - that would alert the airline that a problem exists and it is serious.


Quoting 777Jet (Reply 122):
in the area of its last known location then I would have expected some debris to be found by now

Agree. I do think the aircraft will not be found near the loss of contact point.

Quoting flydeltajets (Reply 124):
Even if they switched the transponder off wouldn't there still be a target, just with no identifier? At least for the time the plane remained airborne.
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 126):
It's entirely possible that there was a primary return on military radar, and they are not sharing that with us.

An ATC systems shows a bright labeled data block for a transponder aircraft. Depending upon the filtering set - a no transponder aircraft primary return might or might not be visible. It can easily be lost in the background clutter unless the controller is actively searching for an aircraft.

Military systems are not foolproof either. Primary returns are missed every day. An additional problem is the size of the area covered by the radar screen. It is much easier to see a primary return if the radar is covering an area 20 miles in diameter than one 200 miles in diameter.

One thing I can certainly guarantee is that the tapes of the raw data form radars all around this area are being scrutinized in detail at this time. Authorities are searching for any possible signal/ return that might be from this aircraft. That includes any military radar data.

I cannot conceive of military authorities withholding data which might reveal information about this aircraft - at least from the SAR efforts.

Whether or not we are told is another issue.

Having served in the US military, I understand the need for secrecy in certain situations. But having worked in the press, I also understand very well the downside of how vicious the media will be if they find out they were kept out of the loop. And with today's internet and world wide connectivity - keeping secrets is very hard. Much harder than most folks think.


As a possible example - the aircraft is on the ground at a closed military airport and a military/ hijacker standoff is underway. Authorities are keeping up the search to confuse the hijackers and to try to keep the situation isolated for passenger safety.

That's a wild, crazy speculation. Not worth anything but a bad novel.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 18:17:42 and read 53463 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 144):
As a possible example - the aircraft is on the ground at a closed military airport and a military/ hijacker standoff is underway. Authorities are keeping up the search to confuse the hijackers and to try to keep the situation isolated for passenger safety.

That's a wild, crazy speculation. Not worth anything but a bad novel.

Entirely plausible...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-10 18:18:55 and read 53072 times.

Quoting DeltaAtl (Reply 134):
May sound stupid but has anyone tried the find my iPhone app? Like I have my daughters info if she loses hers-

That only works if the phone is in contact with a cell phone network, which this aircraft was not when it disappeared.

And yes, I'm certain some folks have tried with no success.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: solarflyer22
Posted 2014-03-10 18:19:00 and read 53076 times.

Quoting penguins (Reply 94):

A problem I seem to see with a lot of these theories is that even if the transponder if turned off, won't the plane still return a radar signal, just with no data. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Yeah, there should have been good coverage in that region but those radars are not high resolution military grade radars.

The press conference indicated one of the stolen passport holders looked like Mario Balotelli who is African descent.

This man to be specific:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Balotelli

Very unique looking to say the least. Not sure what to make of it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: StuckInCA
Posted 2014-03-10 18:22:22 and read 52710 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 129):
As I stated when someone else questioned the same thing, you can't keep a 777 in a D-Check for 12 years. Sooner or later, someone is going to ask a question as to where that plane ended up.

But they could just take one from one of their airlines. They wouldn't have to tell anyone where it went. If they wanted to have it in a hangar for 12 year, that's there prerogative.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 18:22:30 and read 52808 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 145):
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 144):
As a possible example - the aircraft is on the ground at a closed military airport and a military/ hijacker standoff is underway. Authorities are keeping up the search to confuse the hijackers and to try to keep the situation isolated for passenger safety.

That's a wild, crazy speculation. Not worth anything but a bad novel.

Entirely plausible...

Agreed. Would also explain the type of press releases from MH.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-10 18:23:39 and read 52639 times.

Next news conference at 10am... in 37mins

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: todareisinger
Posted 2014-03-10 18:24:08 and read 52661 times.

What a terrible catastrophe, I feel sad and frightened 


I know that at the present stage we do not know anything yet. BUT, in the case it was a bomb....... it could also be that it was not intended for this flight but for the continuation flights to Europe on which the holders of the stolen passports were apparently booked.....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Kaphias
Posted 2014-03-10 18:29:44 and read 51812 times.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 150):
Next news conference at 10am... in 37mins

Is there anywhere that these can be watched live online?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: marktci
Posted 2014-03-10 18:32:05 and read 51654 times.

When I heard the Mario Balotelli thing, I didn't think it was meant literally.

I took it as the official saying that not everyone with an Italian name looks stereotypically Italian. Something got lost in the telling and the nuance was missed, rather than the official saying that the person literally looked like Mario Balotelli.

[Edited 2014-03-10 18:33:23]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: philask
Posted 2014-03-10 18:34:56 and read 50905 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 144):
As a possible example - the aircraft is on the ground at a closed military airport and a military/ hijacker standoff is underway. Authorities are keeping up the search to confuse the hijackers and to try to keep the situation isolated for passenger safety.

That's a wild, crazy speculation. Not worth anything but a bad novel.

No way, the SAR effort is costing millions of dollars per day, and there's no precedence for dealing with a hijacking in this manner.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-10 18:40:27 and read 49930 times.

This is somewhat of a grim question, but how long does a SAR mission like this last before it's called off? This is an extremely expensive venture that I can't imagine the countries involved are willing to foot the bill for much longer. There will certainly be private recovery missions and funding in the future, but how much can a large scale mission such as this last?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 18:42:17 and read 49537 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 155):
This is somewhat of a grim question, but how long does a SAR mission like this last before it's called off? This is an extremely expensive venture that I can't imagine the countries involved are willing to foot the bill for much longer. There will certainly be private recovery missions and funding in the future, but how much can a large scale mission such as this last?

With all the publicity, it will probably last for a while... Unless they find some kind of info to elude to what happened. After they stop, the insurance companies will surely pony up some cash to find the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tarmacphotos
Posted 2014-03-10 18:45:17 and read 49149 times.

Quoting todareisinger (Reply 151):
in the case it was a bomb....... it could also be that it was not intended for this flight but for the continuation flights to Europe on which the holders of the stolen passports were apparently booked

Exactly, wouldn't be the first time a defective timer was used by terrorists/criminals.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 18:45:32 and read 49193 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 156):
Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 155):
This is somewhat of a grim question, but how long does a SAR mission like this last before it's called off? This is an extremely expensive venture that I can't imagine the countries involved are willing to foot the bill for much longer. There will certainly be private recovery missions and funding in the future, but how much can a large scale mission such as this last?

With all the publicity, it will probably last for a while... Unless they find some kind of info to elude to what happened. After they stop, the insurance companies will surely pony up some cash to find the plane.

I agree. I highly doubt it would be called off without finding anything. Who would just accept that a 777 or any commercial aircraft goes missing in 2014 without any answers?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-10 18:46:36 and read 48939 times.

Quoting Kaphias (Reply 152):
Is there anywhere that these can be watched live online?

This is where i watch the press conferences live:

http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live

This channel is not in english but the press conferences are in english.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Stabilator
Posted 2014-03-10 18:47:53 and read 48826 times.

Quoting philask (Reply 154):
No way, the SAR effort is costing millions of dollars per day, and there's no precedence for dealing with a hijacking in this manner.

Agreed. Authorities would surely alert other governments if this was the case and they'd be 1) pretty ticked 2) would end SAR missions quickly to avoid the costs of the operation.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 155):

This is somewhat of a grim question, but how long does a SAR mission like this last before it's called off?

I could see the bulk of SAR teams being called off in a few days, leaving local countries to lead the effort. I.E. I could see the USA/Australia etc pulling out until main wreckage is found, then again send support once remains are found. China may stick around since a bulk of the pax, iirc, were Chinese. Your're correct, there is a ton of cost to mobilizing such a huge SAR operation. With no ELT, black box, debris field, etc, I think efforts will be scaled back, as there is literally almost nothing to go on at this point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 18:48:11 and read 48603 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 158):
I agree. I highly doubt it would be called off without finding anything. Who would just accept that a 777 or any commercial aircraft goes missing in 2014 without any answers?

The only way they would call it off without finding the bulk of the aircraft is if:

1. they find black boxes
2. they somehow found radar recordings showing a rapid decent and crash
3. if they were to find nothing for over 1 year...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 18:49:57 and read 48400 times.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 159):

Thank you...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 18:50:09 and read 48196 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 156):

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 155):
This is somewhat of a grim question, but how long does a SAR mission like this last before it's called off? This is an extremely expensive venture that I can't imagine the countries involved are willing to foot the bill for much longer. There will certainly be private recovery missions and funding in the future, but how much can a large scale mission such as this last?

With all the publicity, it will probably last for a while... Unless they find some kind of info to elude to what happened. After they stop, the insurance companies will surely pony up some cash to find the plane.

Indeed. They'll keep looking until they find something, probably for years if it gets to that. However if they don't find anything within another few days or weeks, the effort will be scaled down gradually.

Quoting Kaphias (Reply 152):
Quoting stuyyz (Reply 150):
Next news conference at 10am... in 37mins

Is there anywhere that these can be watched live online?

You can probably watch it on some news channel websites. Try Sky News perhaps.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-10 18:52:12 and read 47984 times.

just seeing on twitter that the 10am press conference has been postponed without explanation...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: kurtjeter
Posted 2014-03-10 18:53:34 and read 47844 times.

I've seen a few references to the ACARS system, but if there has been a clear answer to my question I've missed it and apologize.
Does a 777 have ACARS? If so is it "always on," or can it be turned "off." Is ACARS optional equipment for a 777? If so, why would an airline NOT want it?
Thanks!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flydeltajets
Posted 2014-03-10 18:53:34 and read 47886 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 140):
The Chinese government owns Boeings - not 777s but they've had access to (IIRC) a 737, 747, and 767. Remember the whole mess over the bugged 767?

Air China (not directly owned by Chinese Government) owns 777s

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-10 18:56:05 and read 47268 times.

Quoting flydeltajets (Reply 166):
Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 140):
The Chinese government owns Boeings - not 777s but they've had access to (IIRC) a 737, 747, and 767. Remember the whole mess over the bugged 767?

Air China (not directly owned by Chinese Government) owns 777s

They are an excellent product too! Their new 777-300ER is great, even in economy class...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: danvs
Posted 2014-03-10 18:56:58 and read 47468 times.

I have mentioned this on thread 7 but since no one replied to it, here it goes again:

The media says Subang ATC lost contact with MH370 near IGARI position, on the border with Vietnamese ATC.

However, this is not accurate according to the charts.

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x255/danielvs/MH370_zpsadd0f6e7.png

As you can see from above, MH370 was exiting SINGAPOREAN ATC area, and NOT Malaysian.
If MH370 was under Singaporean radar control, why don't we have any info on what Singaporean controllers saw or did not see?

Quoting PROSA (Reply 68):
Something I haven't seen mentioned (though I might have missed it) is that MH suffered one of the first A330 hull losses back in 2000, due to the leakage of hazardous chemicals in the cargo. Could that be a hint as to what happened here?

I was wondering... Is it a sheer coincidence that the airplane vanished from ADS-B coverage (assuming the event took place at this time) at the exact moment it was turning right for the second time into the flight? (the first one being right after takeoff). I was thinking of 1) dislodgment of dangerous cargo or... 2) stress over a fatigued and badly mended wingtip (following the repairs we all know about).

[Edited 2014-03-10 18:59:22]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2014-03-10 18:57:10 and read 47327 times.

Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 165):

Many 777s do have ACARS yes, but I'm pretty sure this one did not.
EDIT - As later pointed out, yes this plane has ACARS capabilities. Its just that I'm pretty sure MH doesn't pay for this service.
I'm pretty sure ACARS isn't exactly cheap - so its not worth it for how rare events such as these are.
If money didn't matter, every jet would have ACARS.

[Edited 2014-03-10 19:00:41]

[Edited 2014-03-10 19:01:26]

[Edited 2014-03-10 19:06:27]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-10 19:00:55 and read 46637 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 163):
Indeed. They'll keep looking until they find something, probably for years if it gets to that. However if they don't find anything within another few days or weeks, the effort will be scaled down gradually.

Since a lot of Chinese citizens are involved and a US manufactured plane in question I think there will a lot of pressure to find this plane and figure out what happened since 777 is the most popular plane flying around and a lot of lives are at stake . This is a very high profile incident (especially given the doubts of a terrorism angle as well due to the stolen passports) and most of the citizens belong to a country that has a lot of international clout. China pressing into service 10 military satellites says a lot (i doubt if such a public deployment of satellites to find a plan has been done before).

[Edited 2014-03-10 19:07:57]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 19:01:46 and read 46569 times.

Quoting danvs (Reply 168):
1) dislodgment of dangerous cargo or... 2) stress over a fatigued and badly mended wingtip (following the repairs we all know about).

1. there would have been some kind of debris...

2. Though I could be woefully wrong, and I would appreciate someone with more knowledge commenting, but can't the aircraft withstand the last 4 feet or so of the wing coming off and not fall out of the sky?

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 169):
I'm pretty sure ACARS isn't exactly cheap - so its not worth it for how rare events such as these are.
If money didn't matter, every jet would have ACARS.

I think most Airlines have ACARS installed, as it provides a vital link to the aircraft and systems.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 19:03:20 and read 46558 times.

Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 165):

I've seen a few references to the ACARS system, but if there has been a clear answer to my question I've missed it and apologize.
Does a 777 have ACARS? If so is it "always on," or can it be turned "off." Is ACARS optional equipment for a 777? If so, why would an airline NOT want it?
Thanks!

AFAIK 777s have ACARS, that is the hardware, as standard. However the hardware doesn't do anything unless you activate the reporting service. This is a paid service which it seems MH does not have. Thus no automated ACARS reporting.

Quoting danvs (Reply 168):
I was wondering... Is it a sheer coincidence that the airplane vanished from ADS-B coverage (assuming the event took place at this time) at the exact moment it was turning right for the second time into the flight? (the first one being right after takeoff). I was thinking of 1) dislodgment of dangerous cargo or... 2) stress over a fatigued and badly mended wingtip (following the repairs we all know about).

Interesting, and there might be something to that. I would note, though, that ADS-B data isn't exactly super-precise so any conclusions must be tentative.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: wxmeddler
Posted 2014-03-10 19:06:03 and read 46166 times.

So here is a question, why doesn't Boeing/AB just attach a hydrostatic EPRIB in the tail section? I know the ELT does practically the same thing for land crashes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DBCooper
Posted 2014-03-10 19:06:51 and read 46146 times.

I was reading, with interest, some of the info about the Captain. One of the items that struck me was that he had created a 777 simulator at home...which I thought was fascinating.

In the interest of leaving no stone unturned...have the authorities checked that simulator to see if there are any "interesting" scenarios on it?

While I highly doubt the Captain hijacked his aircraft for whatever reason...it doesn't hurt to take a look at it and cross it off the list.

I sincerely apologize if anyone is offended by this suggestion. Just trying to think of anything that could shed some light on this amazing story.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: kcrwflyer
Posted 2014-03-10 19:07:26 and read 45818 times.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 169):
I'm pretty sure ACARS isn't exactly cheap - so its not worth it for how rare events such as these are.
If money didn't matter, every jet would have ACARS.

ACARS doesn't exist for situations like this. It's pretty standard equipment for operating...most regional jets even have it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Vctony
Posted 2014-03-10 19:08:47 and read 45528 times.

Quoting DBCooper (Reply 174):
In the interest of leaving no stone unturned...have the authorities checked that simulator to see if there are any "interesting" scenarios on it?

Excellent thought. I'd be interesting to know what, if anything, was on that simulator as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 19:09:15 and read 45722 times.

Quoting DBCooper (Reply 174):
While I highly doubt the Captain hijacked his aircraft for whatever reason...it doesn't hurt to take a look at it and cross it off the list.

I sincerely apologize if anyone is offended by this suggestion. Just trying to think of anything that could shed some light on this amazing story.

I don't think anything can be ruled out at this point there than the plane landing at PEK...

I also don't think anyone should be offended by the notion that the Captains flight sim should be inspected to see if everything was on the up and up.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: UA787DEN
Posted 2014-03-10 19:09:45 and read 45938 times.

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 175):

I'm by no means an ACARS expert. From previous posts, I've read that for whatever reason, this plane was not trackable with it - whether its because MH hasn't paid for its usage or due to crash location I don't know.
Bottom line is ACARS doesn't seem to help in this case.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: danvs
Posted 2014-03-10 19:10:48 and read 45556 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 171):
but can't the aircraft withstand the last 4 feet or so of the wing coming off and not fall out of the sky?

Even if it does withstand, one must consider a worst-case scenario where the detached piece slams into the vertical or horizontal stabilizer etc.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Web500sjc
Posted 2014-03-10 19:12:18 and read 45477 times.

Quoting danvs (Reply 168):
As you can see from above, MH370 was exiting SINGAPOREAN ATC area, and NOT Malaysian.
If MH370 was under Singaporean radar control, why don't we have any info on what Singaporean controllers saw or did not see?

I dint know, but I would like to know.

spelling

[Edited 2014-03-10 19:16:05]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-10 19:12:18 and read 45643 times.

Quoting danvs (Reply 168):
As you can see from above, MH370 was exiting SINGAPOREAN ATC area, and NOT Malaysian.

Not necessarily.

The flight was crossing the corner of the WSJC FIR (Flight Information Region) and either the ATC could have been delegated to Malaysia since they would have the only radar coverage of the area. Singapore would only have Oceanic Control in the area, not radar ATC control.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: buckfifty
Posted 2014-03-10 19:14:48 and read 44927 times.

Amazing how wild the speculation is now, which isn't terribly surprising though considering the circumstances.

I fly this route quite often, and I cannot even fathom how not even a single piece of floating debris has been picked up yet in such a crowded area of the world. A lot of fishing activity, oil and gas platforms, and decent weather to top it all off.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 19:14:49 and read 45005 times.

Quoting DBCooper (Reply 174):
I was reading, with interest, some of the info about the Captain. One of the items that struck me was that he had created a 777 simulator at home...which I thought was fascinating.

In the interest of leaving no stone unturned...have the authorities checked that simulator to see if there are any "interesting" scenarios on it?

While I highly doubt the Captain hijacked his aircraft for whatever reason...it doesn't hurt to take a look at it and cross it off the list.

I sincerely apologize if anyone is offended by this suggestion. Just trying to think of anything that could shed some light on this amazing story.

No, I think that's a legit question to ask.

I said a bit earlier that one uncomfortable scenario is that the lack of communication opportunity/attempt in a hijacking could be explained by crew involvement, sort of like Debt of Honor by Tom Clancy (without that crashing into the Capitol).

It would make sense that he would practice something if he were involved.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: JettTracer
Posted 2014-03-10 19:20:04 and read 44408 times.

***opinion***

I was discussing with my colleague yesterday about this flight.
Can I just check what usually is the standard protocol when an airliner is found off the radar?
Will the air force jets be deployed to do a look out for the missing airliner? If yes, how long after the missing status is reported?

If this fateful airliner has exploded in mid air, the question would be who has planted the bomb and how it gone undetected?
How many explosives (say C-4) will be required to make an airliner this size to "vanish" in small pieces?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-10 19:26:27 and read 42871 times.

Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?

I'm not hating on those speculating but some of the ideas being thrown around are absolutely ridiculous. I know a structural failure leading to a crash and them taking unusually long to find it is more 'boring' but still seems a lot more plausible than the crazy crap being discussed.

Just my 2¢... the ocean is a big place, even in a crowded area. It's 2014 but there are still gaps in our technology and maybe this supposed crash will lead to some changes in that area

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-10 19:27:16 and read 42754 times.

Did any search craft reach that alleged debris field southeast of Vietnam before last light on the 10th? I haven't seen anything that's said the debris field was reached and discounted yet.

(Seeing this on AvHerald, btw... Not sure if it was discussed. Looking at the thread summary, I think it might have been, but not sure)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Mark2fly1034
Posted 2014-03-10 19:28:13 and read 42462 times.

We seem to have determined that MH had not paid for the service of sending things automatically back to MX. I would guess all the 777s are like that or is it just this one. I also like the thought of checking the computer of the captain, that could be expanded and go the first officer/crew even paxs. Something would be bound to show up if it was terrorism related.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gulfstream650
Posted 2014-03-10 19:30:51 and read 42042 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 186):

That's what I'm waiting to hear about too.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Mark2fly1034
Posted 2014-03-10 19:32:14 and read 41700 times.

To think outside the box would if it was as simple as they lost GPS and got lost. It takes me back to the two planes that went missing from OAK-HNL where GPS was taken down to help the space shuttle and it took a while before gps was linked to the crash. What about other gosht planes. History does tend to repeat itself.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-10 19:34:17 and read 41675 times.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 187):
We seem to have determined that MH had not paid for the service of sending things automatically back to MX. I would guess all the 777s are like that or is it just this one. I also like the thought of checking the computer of the captain, that could be expanded and go the first officer/crew even paxs. Something would be bound to show up if it was terrorism related.

I think it had ACARS but no ACARS messages after the time the aircraft disappeared. Unfortunately, the quote is ambiguous.

Quote:
"There were no signals from ACARS from the time the aircraft disappeared," a source involved in the investigations said.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...sia-airlines-idUSBREA291D520140310

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: dragon6172
Posted 2014-03-10 19:34:50 and read 41313 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 186):

Did any search craft reach that alleged debris field southeast of Vietnam before last light on the 10th? I haven't seen anything that's said the debris field was reached and discounted yet.

I believe it was posted that that debris field was discounted as being associated with the incident.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 19:34:53 and read 41387 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 186):
Did any search craft reach that alleged debris field southeast of Vietnam before last light on the 10th? I haven't seen anything that's said the debris field was reached and discounted yet.

(Seeing this on AvHerald, btw... Not sure if it was discussed. Looking at the thread summary, I think it might have been, but not sure)
Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 188):
That's what I'm waiting to hear about too.

I don't know specifically about that piece... but the latest news reports are that nothing potentially belonging to MH370 has been found, and that all pieces found were nothing but ocean trash. Though I am unsure if that piece was specifically included in those reports.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-10 19:36:36 and read 41214 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 171):
2. Though I could be woefully wrong, and I would appreciate someone with more knowledge commenting, but can't the aircraft withstand the last 4 feet or so of the wing coming off and not fall out of the sky?

Back in the late 60s, a US Navy WC-121 (Lockheed Super Constellation) stuck a wing-tip tank into the eyewall of a typhoon in the South China Sea. The wing was torn off the aircraft at the #4 engine, along with the engine. The plane was able to fly safely out of the typhoon at low level, and land at Subic.

Losing four or ten feet of wing should not have made the aircraft unflyable - though it might have created a very quick, unexpected roll.

Quoting JettTracer (Reply 184):
Can I just check what usually is the standard protocol when an airliner is found off the radar?

First try to reestablish contact. Happens dozens of times every day around the world. Almost always within an hour the aircraft is able to report back in.

Quoting JettTracer (Reply 184):
Will the air force jets be deployed to do a look out for the missing airliner? If yes, how long after the missing status is reported?

Depends upon how the responsible nation is setup. In the US and most European countries - Coast Guard would be the first notified and set to search. Any aircraft in the area would be asked to look out for the aircraft. Back when VQ-1 lost an A-3 Skywarrior in the Philippine Sea - a Pan Am B747 diverted and provided VHF comm relay with the troubled aircraft until the crew bailed out. The Pan Am pilots offered to divert 100nm farther to try to overfly the last known position, but the men were picked up by a JMSDF ship.

Only if there is an indication that the ''missing airliner" went down would there be a 'scramble' but all available aircraft. Just going missing doesn't result in that response in most locations. Missing airliners out of contact for over an hour are a very, very rare occurrence so each case really is handled individually based on local capability.

Quoting JettTracer (Reply 184):
How many explosives (say C-4) will be required to make an airliner this size to "vanish" in small pieces?

Explosives would leave a huge debris field - easily found at daylight. Enough C-4 to make a B777 vanish would be more weight than the plane could carry, and it would have to be very carefully distributed through the fuselage, wings and empennage to create that much destruction.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Toni_
Posted 2014-03-10 19:37:24 and read 41254 times.

http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014

Thought I'd share this here. This website has satellite images that were taken last sunday. Anyone can go through them and tag anything unusual or familiar. Bit of crowdsourcing might help.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Braniff747SP
Posted 2014-03-10 19:38:10 and read 40712 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 185):
Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?

Certainly not.

I'm all for reasonable speculation, but some of the things being thrown about here are simply beyond comprehension.

Odds are that it was some sort of benign technical fault or episode of human error.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-10 19:38:23 and read 40793 times.

I'm sticking with the plane being down in the IGARI area. SAR has either missed it, or there was, for whatever reason, very little floating debris.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: acabgd
Posted 2014-03-10 19:39:54 and read 40775 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 115):
Also, I didn't post this one before, but here is a remote airstrip in the desert: http://g.co/maps/375xc - again, not that MH370 had the range for this in particular, but I am sure there are others.

I would say this is clearly a practice/bombing range, as can be seen from numerous bomb craters at the top of the "airfield". In addition to that, there is clearly no markings and no other activity at this "airfield" apart from a few bunkers and a single jet surrounded by - something, but also physically detached from the rest of the taxiways/runways.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 129):
Agreed, but Russia and North Korea are hardly forth coming.

Sorry, but I doubt Russia would have any interest to withold information about possible radar returns, if they had any. What would be Russian interest not to disclose such info? Actually, they'd probably be very happy to do it and proclaim their "superior radar technology" or such...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: zhiao
Posted 2014-03-10 19:40:30 and read 40490 times.

What would happen if they never find anything? Would it be possible that it was sucked into another universe via a wormhole? I think there was an episode on this from "The outer limits"
whereby the train kept going forever.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaAtl
Posted 2014-03-10 19:42:49 and read 40252 times.

Quoting Toni_ (Reply 194):
http://bit.ly/Pm7uwC

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-10 19:44:37 and read 39857 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 185):
Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?

Nope. Count me in.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 185):
It's 2014 but there are still gaps in our technology and maybe this supposed crash will lead to some changes in that area

  
When we look back 5 years from now the SAR effort could be as big a story as the (assumed) crash.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 189):
the two planes that went missing from OAK-HNL where GPS was taken down to help the space shuttle and it took a while before gps was linked to the crash.

What's that all about?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Reffado
Posted 2014-03-10 19:45:49 and read 39843 times.

If they never find anything, which I seriously doubt, this will be RG 967 all over again. Except this time, instead of 4, over 200 families will demand answers.

[Edited 2014-03-10 19:50:45]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 19:46:02 and read 39783 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 193):
Explosives would leave a huge debris field - easily found at daylight. Enough C-4 to make a B777 vanish would be more weight than the plane could carry, and it would have to be very carefully distributed through the fuselage, wings and empennage to create that much destruction.

Interesting point of view... While I agree that explosives would have left a lot of debris, your level of detail probably guarantees that you will never see TSA precheck. haha But the info does help with the bomb theory.

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 195):
Certainly not.

I'm all for reasonable speculation, but some of the things being thrown about here are simply beyond comprehension.

Odds are that it was some sort of benign technical fault or episode of human error.

I would be relieved with such an outcome, but with those kinds of issues, and the lack of any debris in day 4, I fear a simple technical fault is not the answer...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-10 19:46:29 and read 40217 times.

Quoting DBCooper (Reply 174):
In the interest of leaving no stone unturned...have the authorities checked that simulator to see if there are any "interesting" scenarios on it?

After I proposed the Chinese Espionage theory, someone private emailed me and we were discussing the same thing. I was thinking the First Officer because he is younger and in theory less respected. But the other persons point was that anyone how has that much of a simulator in a case like this, might be worth looking into. Which I thought was a good point that I hadn't thought of.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 185):
Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?
Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 195):
Certainly not.

I agree. Even with my proposed theory of Chinese Espionage / Highjacking / Theft of the plane, I still wouldn't bet on that and would more than likely be something less crazy and more mundane than that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-10 19:49:27 and read 39449 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 201):
I fear a simple technical fault is not the answer...

He didn't say "simple" (although "benign" would hardly apply either). Most aircraft accidents have a complex set of causes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 19:49:43 and read 39577 times.

Quoting JettTracer (Reply 184):
How many explosives (say C-4) will be required to make an airliner this size to "vanish" in small pieces?


A lot. Even an explosion as massive as TWA800 left much of the plane in large pieces.

Quoting JettTracer (Reply 184):
Can I just check what usually is the standard protocol when an airliner is found off the radar?
Will the air force jets be deployed to do a look out for the missing airliner? If yes, how long after the missing status is reported?

ICAO defines three phases depending on what is known and so forth. There are defined recommendations about what should be done at each phase.
- Uncertainty phase (INCERFA) : a situation wherein uncertainty exists as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants.
- Alert phase (ALERFA) : a situation wherein apprehension exists as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants.
- Distress phase (DETRESFA) : a situation wherein there is a reasonable certainty that an aircraft and its occupants are threatened by grave and imminent danger and require immediate assistance.

The time scale to move from one phase to the next really depends from case to case.

In section three of this ICAO document, you can read all the things that should happen for each phase. http://legacy.icao.int/SARafrica/docs/RCC_Operations_Manual_en.pdf

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Boeing717200
Posted 2014-03-10 19:52:02 and read 39215 times.

Quoting DeltaAtl (Reply 199):

Gotta wonder what that's going to cost in terms of satellite lifespan because of the fuel burn. Of course who knows what technology China has managed to get their hands on. NASA has been flirting with some pretty slick ion thrusters lately.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: marktci
Posted 2014-03-10 19:56:28 and read 38205 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 185):
Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?

I'm not hating on those speculating but some of the ideas being thrown around are absolutely ridiculous. I know a structural failure leading to a crash and them taking unusually long to find it is more 'boring' but still seems a lot more plausible than the crazy crap being discussed.

While I agree that some of the theories are rather crazy, the simplest theories don't really work either. Structural failure would have led to a debris field in a fairly predictable area (i.e., heading and altitude and speed should narrow the range). The longer we go without finding any debris, the less likely your simple explanation works.

Occam's Razor doesn't say that the simplest explanation is always right. Instead, "the razor states that one should proceed to simpler theories until simplicity can be traded for greater explanatory power. The simplest available theory need not be most accurate." In this case, greater explanatory power is needed than simply saying the place fell apart at altitude.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaAtl
Posted 2014-03-10 19:56:59 and read 38894 times.

Large debris fourth off Southern Vietnam island of Vung Tau

http://bit.ly/1fR73oM

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Boeing717200
Posted 2014-03-10 20:00:54 and read 37593 times.

Quoting DeltaAtl (Reply 207):

Fingers crossed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 20:02:45 and read 37276 times.

Quoting DeltaAtl (Reply 207):
Large debris fourth off Southern Vietnam island of Vung Tau

I thought that has been reported earlier?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-10 20:03:27 and read 37298 times.

How would you spot debris from a cruising airliner? Binoculars?

Seems difficult.

[Edited 2014-03-10 20:04:02]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-10 20:05:28 and read 36998 times.

I think the major takeaway from this incident thus far is that there is an insane amount of trash/pollution in the Gulf of Thailand.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: solarflyer22
Posted 2014-03-10 20:05:53 and read 37211 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 202):
After I proposed the Chinese Espionage theory, someone private emailed me and we were discussing the same thing. I was thinking the First Officer because he is younger and in theory less respected. But the other persons point was that anyone how has that much of a simulator in a case like this, might be worth looking into. Which I thought was a good point that I hadn't thought of.

I seriously doubt that. It turns out that CNN flew with that exact same co-pilot on another flight a few weeks ago while doing a story for CNN Business. They were covering the financial turnaround of Malaysian Airlines. He was described as an ideal co-pilot who made a perfect touchdown w the CNN reporter in the jump seat. The Captain was also extremely qualified.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gulfstream650
Posted 2014-03-10 20:07:47 and read 36662 times.

That vung Tao debris was reported yesterday but we have not been updated since.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 20:09:10 and read 36203 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 211):
I think the major takeaway from this incident thus far is that there is an insane amount of trash/pollution in the Gulf of Thailand.

Agreed...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stretch
Posted 2014-03-10 20:10:28 and read 36188 times.

Was there any update on when the news conference was going to take place?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-10 20:11:13 and read 36257 times.

There is a solid chance this was covered in the previous 10 threads (which I have followed closely), but if authorities expanded their SAR mission into the Malacca Strait due to a potential turn back, why wouldn't they be searching the portion of land where Malaysia and Thailand meet that separates the two bodies of water?

It seems much more likely if there was a turn back, they would've ended up on land instead of the Malacca Strait.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Burchfiel
Posted 2014-03-10 20:13:27 and read 35505 times.

In this era of high-definition satellite imagery, why couldn't you just have a couple satellites take lots of high definition photos of the surrounding area, then have researchers (or an automated program) search for what appears to be the aircraft or its debris?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-10 20:15:30 and read 35131 times.

Quoting Burchfiel (Reply 217):
In this era of high-definition satellite imagery, why couldn't you just have a couple satellites take lots of high definition photos of the surrounding area, then have researchers (or an automated program) search for what appears to be the aircraft or its debris?

Already being done.

Quoting Toni_ (Reply 193):
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014

Thought I'd share this here. This website has satellite images that were taken last sunday. Anyone can go through them and tag anything unusual or familiar. Bit of crowdsourcing might help.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Boeing717200
Posted 2014-03-10 20:15:47 and read 35143 times.

Quoting Burchfiel (Reply 217):

They have to be in position to do so and it can take quite a bit of fuel to do so. It seems China is positioning satellites for this, but they don't move that quickly. Parking a satellite can even take a couple of days. No one knows what tech China has at their disposal, just that they have the capability to move what sounds like 10 birds.

[Edited 2014-03-10 20:18:29]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-10 20:16:38 and read 35256 times.

Quoting marktci (Reply 206):
the less likely your simple explanation works.

My simple explanation?

Anyway, I never said it had to be simple, I'm sure multiple factors were involved. I just don't think that just because we still haven't found chunks of rubbish in a huge sea that it had to do with meteors, terrorists flying the plane to China's reverse engineering island, or a wild string of extraordinarily unlikely events

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 211):

I think the major takeaway from this incident thus far is that there is an insane amount of trash/pollution in the Gulf of Thailand.

That plus the fact the same pieces of said garbage gets reported about 20 times each on these threads  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: cbrboy
Posted 2014-03-10 20:16:49 and read 35110 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 216):
why wouldn't they be searching the portion of land where Malaysia and Thailand meet that separates the two bodies of water?

Probably because it is unlikely, given the population density, that an aircraft crash on land could have gone unnoticed and unreported.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-10 20:20:10 and read 34398 times.

Quoting Burchfiel (Reply 217):
In this era of high-definition satellite imagery, why couldn't you just have a couple satellites take lots of high definition photos of the surrounding area, then have researchers (or an automated program) search for what appears to be the aircraft or its debris?

That is exactly what is happening here....


http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: aryonoco
Posted 2014-03-10 20:24:37 and read 34020 times.

BBC Persian is reporting that the two passengers on board the plane who were using false documents were Iranian refugees on their path to Europe to claim asylum.

This was my first thought as well when the Salesperson of the tickets turned out to be Iranian.

Iranians don't need a visa to visit Malaysia for tourist purposes so it's a very popular holiday destination, as well as a launching pad for those seeking asylum. Until a few months ago most of these people would then get on a boat from Indonesia and try to reach Australian waters but as the Australian government has now significantly tightened its border control and doesn't offer refugees settlement in Australia, they are thinking of other destinations (mostly Europe).

These two people most likely entered Malaysia with their own Iranian passports, bought these passports (or were given these passports by their handler) and were on their way to Europe to claim asylum. Depending on your view of asylum, their actions are illegal, but I highly doubt this has anything to do with the plane's disappearance.

Links (in Persian) http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20...39_missing_airplane_malaysia.shtml

[Edited 2014-03-10 20:26:51]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-10 20:25:03 and read 33787 times.

Working theory

Three assumptions:

1) The plane lost secondary radar contact / its transponder functionality over the Gulf of Thailand (this we seem to know for certain)
2) The plane did not go down in the immediate vicinity of where it lost radar contact (a true assumption, yes, but a pretty reasonable one I think given the scope of the search effort in the GoT that has so far turned up nothing)
3) There were no communications from the pilots in between the loss of radar contact and when the plane went down (crashed, ditched, landed somewhere, whatever).

Put differently, assumption number 2 is that the plane flew for a significant time after the event that caused the loss of radar contact.

Assumptions 2 and 3 combine, meanwhile, to leave us with the following: since it is highly unlikely that there would be significant flying (i.e., more than a few minutes like AF 447) following an event causing a loss of radar contact without the pilots attempting communications, the pilots either could not communicate (I don't mean cause they were in the throes of an emergency but because comms were non-functional or the pilots were incapacitated) or chose not to communicate.

So in short:

1) Loss of radar contact,
followed by
2) Significant flying,
with
3) No communications during that flying period.

What could explain this?

To me, the most likely culprits are:

1) A fire that knocks out the transponder and electronics and eventually causes the plane to crash
2) A hijacking

Pilot suicide would, I suppose, also fit, but not as tightly (what would explain the significant flying period), plus it seems like Captain and F/O were both held in very high esteem.

What say ya'll?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: marktci
Posted 2014-03-10 20:25:32 and read 33666 times.

Quoting (Reply 207):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 220):
Anyway, I never said it had to be simple, I'm sure multiple factors were involved. I just don't think that just because we still haven't found chunks of rubbish in a huge sea that it had to do with meteors, terrorists flying the plane to China's reverse engineering island, or a wild string of extraordinarily unlikely events

I agree with all of this.

It's just that "structural failure leading to a crash" doesn't explain what it happening here. If the plane dropped out of the sky, it would have been found by now. If it continued flying from its last reported position, it should have been reporting its position.

Even the debris field (which I thought was debunked yesterday) that is some 200 miles form the last reported position doesn't jibe with structural failure/no communication.

I believe there is an explanation that doesn't require aliens/reverse engineering island/etc as well.

[Edited 2014-03-10 20:27:32]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-10 20:27:14 and read 33311 times.

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 221):

Probably because it is unlikely, given the population density, that an aircraft crash on land could have gone unnoticed and unreported.

Fair enough. But wouldn't it be also as unlikely, that an aircraft in such distress to the point that it attempted to turn back, would fly ~300km across land, making no distress call or attempt to land at an airfield, only to crash in another body of water? Seems completely weird to me.

I fully believe the rescuers have little to no information on the whereabouts of MH370. The search area is so haphazard to the point they are willing to search the Strait all the way up to Southeast Vietnam because debris was spotted (how many times have we heard that)?

At risk of sounding totally insensitive, I think the SAR effort needs to take a step back, regroup and come up with a new plan. This is a recovery mission at this point so there really isn't any rush to retrieve the aircraft. They need to stop tweeting out pictures of discarded toilets seats and calling them "aircraft windows." Release news when a piece of debris is actually confirmed to be a part of the aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: ANPlatinum
Posted 2014-03-10 20:32:11 and read 32856 times.

Browsing previous postings, I haven't seen this suggestion.

Perhaps there was an unconfined engine disintegration similar to QF32 where there was significant damage to the aircraft structure and systems and they were lucky to survive. It would only take a little more damage to bring down something like a B777. It could also explain the lack of distress signals, either there was damage to the communications systems, or the cockpit was damaged by debris, or the crew were too busy trying to control the aircraft as what appeared to have happened with AF447

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaAtl
Posted 2014-03-10 20:32:17 and read 32755 times.

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 213):

That was off Tho Chu island in Vietnam

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-10 20:35:01 and read 32470 times.

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 221):
Quoting cbrboy (Reply 221):

Actually the population density is quite low in the central mountainous area.

I have proposed another theory to explain the lack of searching on land. See reply 12 earlier in this thread.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaAtl
Posted 2014-03-10 20:37:54 and read 32248 times.

Even though the possible new debris field is off the beaten path (Vung Tau)... Let's hope it's related so we can move forward. The news article was updated March 11@ 10:10am

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: YULWinterSkies
Posted 2014-03-10 20:39:08 and read 31885 times.

Quoting samair (Reply 4):
I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything).

I don't think they are assuming anything. rather they are trying anything they could... and searching for debris is logical to do, unless the aircraft sunk in one piece, which most frequently is not the case.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 69):
Does anyone know if meals would be served on this overnight flight? I have a hard time seeing them open the cockpit door to take a leak so shortly after takeoff as well. Don't forget it was 2:40 AM local time.

On the contrary, pilots are humans. 45 minutes into the flight when cruise altitude is reached is the first opportunity they would get to go if they need to go shortly after take off... leaving a short opportunity for a potential act of suicide or a hijacking.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 211):
I think the major takeaway from this incident thus far is that there is an insane amount of trash/pollution in the Gulf of Thailand.

Who expected otherwise (about the trash)? Yes, the oceans are a giant open-sky dumpster.

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 223):
BBC Persian is reporting that the two passengers on board the plane who were using false documents were Iranian refugees on their path to Europe to claim asylum.

This was my first thought as well when the Salesperson of the tickets turned out to be Iranian.

Iranians don't need a visa to visit Malaysia for tourist purposes so it's a very popular holiday destination, as well as a launching pad for those seeking asylum. Until a few months ago most of these people would then get on a boat from Indonesia and try to reach Australian waters but as the Australian government has now significantly tightened its border control and doesn't offer refugees settlement in Australia, they are thinking of other destinations (mostly Europe).

These two people most likely entered Malaysia with their own Iranian passports, bought these passports (or were given these passports by their handler) and were on their way to Europe to claim asylum. Depending on your view of asylum, their actions are illegal, but I highly doubt this has anything to do with the plane's disappearance.

Links (in Persian) http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20...39_missing_airplane_malaysia.shtml

Very plausible indeed. I am increasingly leaning towards the fake passport guys and the crash being two coincidental events...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: boacvc10
Posted 2014-03-10 20:43:12 and read 31544 times.

What does the a.net community think of this man's claim of possibly seeing the airliner ... descending at high speed towards the South China Sea about 1.45am on the day flight MH370 went missing ...

Read more: MISSING MH370: Man claims possible sighting of airliner - Latest - New Straits Times


Does this make any sense? We have charts, we have positions, we have estimates ... could someone plot it out based upon his position in Ketereh ?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: marktci
Posted 2014-03-10 20:44:44 and read 31069 times.

Quoting DeltaAtl (Reply 228):
That was off Tho Chu island in Vietnam

Actually, the Vung Tao debris was reported yesterday. See reply 29 in Part 9.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: acabgd
Posted 2014-03-10 20:48:33 and read 30451 times.

Quoting ANPlatinum (Reply 227):
Perhaps there was an unconfined engine disintegration similar to QF32 where there was significant damage to the aircraft structure and systems and they were lucky to survive. It would only take a little more damage to bring down something like a B777. It could also explain the lack of distress signals, either there was damage to the communications systems, or the cockpit was damaged by debris, or the crew were too busy trying to control the aircraft as what appeared to have happened with AF447

This inflight breakup would leave a large debris field, strewn more or less across the last known position. Dozens of ships and rescue planes already searched this area without finding anything.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: vnangia
Posted 2014-03-10 20:49:11 and read 30495 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 184):
Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?

You're not alone. I proposed a very modest calamity that could explain it a few threads ago involving the repaired area of the wing suffering a metal fatigue event, a tech crew (possibly the FO minding the shop while the captain was using the head) overcompensating, getting spatially disoriented in the darkness of IGARI and CFITing the jet. However, that was before we learnt there was ACARS on the plane and that nothing anomalous was logged.

Quoting Burchfiel (Reply 217):
In this era of high-definition satellite imagery, why couldn't you just have a couple satellites take lots of high definition photos of the surrounding area, then have researchers (or an automated program) search for what appears to be the aircraft or its debris?

For one, clouds.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-10 20:50:20 and read 30688 times.

I'm just baffled at this... this was posted on Malaysia Airlines site, 30 minutes ago....

...The search and rescue teams have expanded the scope beyond the flight path. The focus now is on the West Peninsular of Malaysia at the Straits of Malacca....

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaAtl
Posted 2014-03-10 20:50:24 and read 30358 times.

Quoting marktci (Reply 233):

Ok thank you- thought the time update of 3/11/14 was speaking of the debris found  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: philask
Posted 2014-03-10 20:51:54 and read 30501 times.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 237):

I'm just baffled at this... this was posted on Malaysia Airlines site, 30 minutes ago....

...The search and rescue teams have expanded the scope beyond the flight path. The focus now is on the West Peninsular of Malaysia at the Straits of Malacca....

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/e....html

Suggests some new information has come to light.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: dvautier
Posted 2014-03-10 20:53:02 and read 30291 times.

The first officer went suicidal, overpowered the captain, turned off the transponder and augured into the jungles of Thailand. That’s the best I can do.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: E195
Posted 2014-03-10 20:57:31 and read 29275 times.

Could there have been an ACARS outage?

e195

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: vnangia
Posted 2014-03-10 21:02:13 and read 28849 times.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 237):
The focus now is on the West Peninsular of Malaysia at the Straits of Malacca.

Given how relatively crowded the Straits of Malacca are, this has to be a credible eyewitness report. I can't imagine how they could otherwise simultaneously say they last saw the plane near IGARI.

Nuts.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Coal
Posted 2014-03-10 21:02:28 and read 28690 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 232):
Does this make any sense? We have charts, we have positions, we have estimates ... could someone plot it out based upon his position in Ketereh ?

Already discussed in Thread 8 or 9 and based on what he said and some of the comments here, it seems not plausible.

Cheers
Coal

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: malaysia
Posted 2014-03-10 21:03:02 and read 28791 times.

Quoting dvautier (Reply 240):
The first officer went suicidal, overpowered the captain, turned off the transponder and augured into the jungles of Thailand. That’s the best I can do.

"This is not the end. This is not the beginning of the end. It is the end of the beginning"

Is the best I can do as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 21:05:34 and read 28256 times.

Quoting vnangia (Reply 242):
Given how relatively crowded the Straits of Malacca are, this has to be a credible eyewitness report. I can't imagine how they could otherwise simultaneously say they last saw the plane near IGARI.

eyewitness report taking 4 days to come forward?!?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Enobar
Posted 2014-03-10 21:05:59 and read 28101 times.

I've been trying to keep abreast of all the threads so apologies if this is a repeated idea but...

Would it be possible that the jet was flying with the crew incapacitated and it ventured into military airspace resulting in the plane being shot down? If it flew into parts of China or even North Korea I wonder if its possible that it was shot down - either as an unknown aircraft, or as a result of the military being aware of a hijack scenario.

If that were the case, would it not be possible that the military would deny the events in order to avoid an international dipolmatic incident?

(Excuse me for talking from under my tin foil hat...)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: boacvc10
Posted 2014-03-10 21:07:27 and read 27724 times.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 237):
I'm just baffled at this.

Could their navigation system have failed or gone kaput? Smoke/Fire in cockpit? CFIT ?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 21:07:58 and read 27856 times.

Quoting Enobar (Reply 246):
If that were the case, would it not be possible that the military would deny the events in order to avoid an international dipolmatic incident?

Still, that means the military of whatever country shot it down would have to clean it up in a hurry so it could continue to be "lost"

Anything is possible, but I think that may be less likely.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 21:08:16 and read 28014 times.

Quoting E195 (Reply 241):
Could there have been an ACARS outage?

e195

As has been mentioned repeatedly, the best info at this time is that Malaysia Airlines probably does not subscribe to ACARS for its 777s. Subscription is a paid service.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: vnangia
Posted 2014-03-10 21:15:43 and read 26578 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 245):
eyewitness report taking 4 days to come forward?!?

Well, the news first surfaced yesterday, so three days, but the focus hadn't shifted there until today. That could simply be time to get confirmation from more than one ship, or it could be the time before a ship docked in, say, Singapore, the ship crew heard that a plane was missing, and realized that they saw something.

What's completely confusing to me is their reporting of where they last saw the plane. Are they saying they saw secondary at IGARI and then the transponder went dead, and primary returns from radar showed the plane moving out over the Malacca Strait or are they saying the last primary was also over IGARI? My guess is they mean the former given their actions but their press releases are suggesting the latter.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Enobar
Posted 2014-03-10 21:16:20 and read 26254 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 248):
Still, that means the military of whatever country shot it down would have to clean it up in a hurry so it could continue to be "lost"

True... but of course with the last known location being over water and the focused search area being there, we are up to 4 days now of potential cleanup for a land crash location - or it could have been in a remote area? I'm not ultimately sold on the idea.. i just find it so weird that zero debris has turned up at all and am thinking outside the box.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-10 21:16:39 and read 26401 times.

Quoting vnangia (Reply 235):

I mentioned about the wing issue and how there is very little attention being paid to it. I find it is not just coincidence that the same aircraft with wing damage is involved here. I As you mentioned, maybe the repair didn't work well, fatigue or other issues developed that were not identified leading to a catastrophic event.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: E195
Posted 2014-03-10 21:17:37 and read 27306 times.


The aircraft was delivered to Malaysia Airlines in 2002 and have since recorded 53,465.21 hours with a total of 7525 cycles. All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 249):
As been mentioned repeatedly

The above is from the Malaysia Website page, does that not imply they had it and it was working / installed on the aircraft?

E195

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: fiscal
Posted 2014-03-10 21:18:34 and read 27326 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 249):

This is from the latest official press release from Malaysia Airlines

"All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: tyler81190
Posted 2014-03-10 21:25:34 and read 26290 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 252):
I mentioned about the wing issue and how there is very little attention being paid to it. I find it is not just coincidence that the same aircraft with wing damage is involved here. I As you mentioned, maybe the repair didn't work well, fatigue or other issues developed that were not identified leading to a catastrophic event.

Been discussed slightly, unless 25% or more of the wing was ripped off in flight and/or hit the empenage, it is doubtful this would have brought the airplane down. Plus there would have been some kind of wreckage somewhere to be found?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: vnangia
Posted 2014-03-10 21:32:20 and read 25289 times.

Quoting fiscal (Reply 254):

Uhoh. If that's the case, then that to me sounds like avionics failure or pilot suicide.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 255):

Well, my suggestion was more modest - just the bit that was repaired rips, causing a rightward roll, disengaging AP. Inexperienced tech crew overcompensates left causing further damage to aircraft and it goes downhill from there.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: wxmeddler
Posted 2014-03-10 21:32:55 and read 25685 times.

Just came across the feed:

AP Mar 11, 12:21am via SocialFlow
BREAKING: Malaysia Airlines says west coast of country now the focus of search for missing plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-10 21:35:25 and read 25070 times.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 255):

The absence of debris in the ocean is very perplexing. Although, others have suggested that maybe the plane was more intact than being speculated at impact which might explain the lack of debris.

Also, may be it didn't impact water but crashed in land. The Straits Times are now reporting that the remote island of Tho Chu will now be searched. But, if land, then why no smoke?

This is crazy challenging circumstance!  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: KELPkid
Posted 2014-03-10 21:35:46 and read 25191 times.

Quoting E195 (Reply 253):
secs ago) and read 2275 times:The aircraft was delivered to Malaysia Airlines in 2002 and have since recorded 53,465.21 hours with a total of 7525 cycles. All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed.

That means the plane flew an average stage length of 7 hours for its entire life    I was going to say something about how Asian carriers fly their widebodies on really short segments, but that appears to not be the case here...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: deltaSEAalsaka
Posted 2014-03-10 21:38:17 and read 24726 times.

Quoting wxmeddler (Reply 257):

I'm not great with geography but wouldn't that be the other side of the country from the last radar country or am I completely wrong.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 21:39:07 and read 24414 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 252):
mentioned about the wing issue and how there is very little attention being paid to it. I find it is not just coincidence that the same aircraft with wing damage is involved here. I As you mentioned, maybe the repair didn't work well, fatigue or other issues developed that were not identified leading to a catastrophic event.

It is possible and I'm sure the investigators are looking at it. However planes are repaired all the time and this repair was certified so it is not, per se, an unusual or worrying data point.

Besides, there's not much that can be done with this information until the plane is found.

Quoting E195 (Reply 253):


The aircraft was delivered to Malaysia Airlines in 2002 and have since recorded 53,465.21 hours with a total of 7525 cycles. All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 249):
As been mentioned repeatedly

The above is from the Malaysia Website page, does that not imply they had it and it was working / installed on the aircraft?

Awesome. Thanks for correction. Must have missed that bit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2014-03-10 21:42:03 and read 23852 times.

Quoting danvs (Reply 167):
dislodgment of dangerous cargo

Has MH published a cargo list to confirm if any hazmat on board? Undeclared or insufficiently packed DG cargo or in luggage is more likely than terrorism IMO. Not that the cargo needs to be DG to cause a problem dislodging (National 744 Afghanistan).

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 182):
lack of communication opportunity/attempt in a hijacking could be explained by crew involvement, sort of like Debt of Honor by Tom Clancy (without that crashing into the Capitol).

Or recent real life events like ET to FCO ending up in GVA or LAM over Botswana.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 184):
Am I only one that thinks that they'll eventually find out the reason for the crash is something not crazy and it's just taking them a while to find it?

I'm not hating on those speculating but some of the ideas being thrown around are absolutely ridiculous. I know a structural failure leading to a crash and them taking unusually long to find it is more 'boring' but still seems a lot more plausible than the crazy crap being discussed.

Just my 2¢... the ocean is a big place, even in a crowded area. It's 2014 but there are still gaps in our technology and maybe this supposed crash will lead to some changes in that area

Agree - so many more likely outcomes. Whatever happened, how ever large or small the pieces, they simply have not been found yet. From the last posts, it seems they could have been looking in the wrong place for whatever reason.

Just wondering about an insecure cargo door - would it be possible for one to blow out and cause a rapid decompression? I believe it has happened before but cant remember any examples.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 226):
the SAR effort

Does anyone know what SAR equipment Vietnam has? I know they have brand new Viking Twin Otters. Just curious and wondering if they should be asking for help from more ably equipped parties.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-10 21:42:27 and read 23818 times.

Next press conference at 3pm...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: KC135Hydraulics
Posted 2014-03-10 21:44:30 and read 24002 times.

Don't know if this has been discussed, but AvHerald is reporting a large debris field spotted on 10 March 2014 by an overflying Cathy Pacific flight. Might be worth looking at?

See link, highlights in yellow are current news update:

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaB717
Posted 2014-03-10 21:50:27 and read 22639 times.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 263):
Next press conference at 3pm...

3pm Malaysia time?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: JimJupiter
Posted 2014-03-10 21:54:04 and read 22562 times.

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 263):
Might be worth looking at?

Has been looked at - false alarm.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-10 21:55:17 and read 22309 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 262):
Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 226):
the SAR effort

Does anyone know what SAR equipment Vietnam has? I know they have brand new Viking Twin Otters. Just curious and wondering if they should be asking for help from more ably equipped parties.

Vietnam has three An-26 searching. I'm thinking the modernity or type of plane isn't really that relevant when it comes to visual scanning anyway. I know a guy who used to spot fish for fishing boats using an old Cessna 172.

I think it is eight countries involved by this point anyway so plenty of modern equipment floating and flying. If they need a super-modern helicopter at some point, there are quite a few whizzing available in the vicinity.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 262):
Just wondering about an insecure cargo door - would it be possible for one to blow out and cause a rapid decompression? I believe it has happened before but cant remember any examples.

You might be thinking about Turkish Airlines flight 981 (a DC-10) and a few others. It is a possibility but losing a door should not bring down the aircraft. The floor collapsed on Turkish 981 due to the decompression. This design flaw has been remedied in subsequent planes.

[Edited 2014-03-10 21:56:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: Mikey711MN
Posted 2014-03-10 22:03:25 and read 21332 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 261):
Awesome. Thanks for correction. Must have missed that bit.

Agreed, but something that admittedly bothers me about the PR is that the statement could be technically true AND that the airline doesn't subscribe to ACARS, no?

Not trying to be pedantic here, but a few threads back seemed to mention that MH does not subscribe to ACARS. The only way to reconcile the PR statement with that is to critically evaluate the word choice.

Perhaps it's the fading optimism in MH - and potentially building impatience with this search - that is jading my view, which I accept too.

-Mike

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: BoeingVista
Posted 2014-03-10 22:08:53 and read 20336 times.

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 267):
Agreed, but something that admittedly bothers me about the PR is that the statement could be technically true AND that the airline doesn't subscribe to ACARS, no?

Not trying to be pedantic here, but a few threads back seemed to mention that MH does not subscribe to ACARS. The only way to reconcile the PR statement with that is to critically evaluate the word choice.

I agree, its like officially they are supposed to have it but somehow the bill has not been paid so in actuallity they do not...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: DeltaB717
Posted 2014-03-10 22:15:48 and read 19551 times.

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 267):
Not trying to be pedantic here, but a few threads back seemed to mention that MH does not subscribe to ACARS. The only way to reconcile the PR statement with that is to critically evaluate the word choice.

What was written earlier seems more like supposition on the part of a.net posters, not actual information from MH. Unless I've missed something?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: TheRedBaron
Posted 2014-03-10 22:16:26 and read 19409 times.

First of all my condolences to all the people who perished in this baffling tragedy.

Now entertaining a wild speculation on my part:

What if they had an explosive decompression of one of the cockpit windows, they put the programed altitude to a very low reading . (lets say 1500 feet) and they became incapacitated and locked out, then the airplane got to said altitude flying itself till it ran out of fuel, remember it was a night flight, so the aircraft went down very far away from there search point and radar lost contact due to altitude, also the decompression or whatever happened knocked down the transponder or assorted electrical equipment.... I know the possibility is very low but I think its incredible nothing has been found, so the best explanation is that they are looking in the wrong place.

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: yodobashi
Posted 2014-03-10 22:20:34 and read 19378 times.

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 270):
What if they had an explosive decompression of one of the cockpit windows, they put the programed altitude to a very low reading . (lets say 1500 feet)

Most pilots I've ever spoken to have stated FL100 as the norm in the event of an explosive decompression ....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-10 22:21:01 and read 21145 times.

Due to its length this thread will be locked. All posts added after the thread lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 12 which is available here:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)


Thanks and regards,

SA7700


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