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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-16 11:26:52 and read 74237 times.

Due to length part 29 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 30:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**********************************************************************************************


**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

***********************************************************************************************


SOME IMPORTANT REMINDERS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** PLEASE DO NOT REPEAT QUESTIONS AND SCENARIOS THAT HAS BEEN COVERED AND DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS THREADS AND WHICH DO NOT CONTRIBUTE OR APPLY, IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER, TOWARDS THIS CONVERSATION ANY LONGER. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:40:31]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 11:30:36 and read 74322 times.

From previous thread

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 256):
I was looking at my pictures from 9M-MRF, a bit over a year ago and I don't see any seatback telephones.

But maybe MRO had them installed and MRF didn't.

Did you fly first class?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 11:32:58 and read 74175 times.

Are there men among F/A at MH routes or only women? Do we know their deck lay-out? If there was an assault or threat a man more likely to try to resist...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-16 11:33:07 and read 74177 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 1):
Did you fly first class?

Nope. Y.

According to wiki, there is no F on MH's 777.

Pretty sure MH was male F/As.

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:33:33]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 11:33:49 and read 74578 times.


Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

3/16/14 1600Z update.
The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
Edited to add Primary vs Secondary Radar discussion.

First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
"We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Way-point Tracks
The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Aircraft Fuel State
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca straight
North west of Malacca straight
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

Conspiracy Theories
There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Some of the more prevalent.
The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-16 12:07:53]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 11:35:06 and read 74045 times.

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 3):
Nope. Y.

According to wiki, there is no F on MH's 777.

Oh, I don't work for an airline or anything so for me "first class" just means "best seat in the house". On their 777 fleet I guess it would be called "business". That's what I meant.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-16 11:38:16 and read 73731 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 5):

Oh, I don't work for an airline or anything so for me "first class" just means "best seat in the house". On their 777 fleet I guess it would be called "business". That's what I meant.

Fair enough, no worries.

Are there reports that MH has in-flight phones only for business class, then?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: CrimsonNL
Posted 2014-03-16 11:38:32 and read 73746 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 2):
Are there men among F/A at MH routes or only women? Do we know their deck lay-out? If there was an assault or threat a man more likely to try to resist...

Definitely. On most flights the chief purser is male, and there are plenty of other male f/a's.

Martijn

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: giopan1975
Posted 2014-03-16 11:39:28 and read 73765 times.

How wide is the northern arc? If it is around 5000 km long why not have 10 airplanes fly low and parallel to each other along the arc? Or analyze every inch of the arc by satellite.

It is very weird a wreckage has not been found by now with all of that available information, investigators must be 2-3 days ahead of news' networks.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 11:40:50 and read 73560 times.

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 6):
Fair enough, no worries.

Are there reports that MH has in-flight phones only for business class, then?

That is what their marketing materials say. But, someone many posts back said MRO was not equipped with satphones. Don't know how to verify that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: runway23
Posted 2014-03-16 11:41:17 and read 73580 times.

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 6):
Are there reports that MH has in-flight phones only for business class, then?

According to MH, they do.

http://malaysiaairlines.com/hq/en/mh...ence/our-fleet/boeing-777-200.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: PHX787
Posted 2014-03-16 11:42:34 and read 73417 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.

Is the secondary radar capable of detailing the heading at which the airframe was moving? This may lead to more clues.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: MarcoT
Posted 2014-03-16 11:44:05 and read 73227 times.

from the last thread

Quoting na (Reply 212):

Quote:

No alarm, no plane sent up trying to find out. Also ask the general, why it took them 4 days before saying anything.
Possible explanations: 1. the supervising controllers (at several stations!) all slept and the signals were only detected when researching the archive

This is simply not true.

On DAY 2 they said that they were expanding the SAR operation to the Andaman Sea because "the air force believes that it may have made a turn back". (slightly reparaphrased from memory, emphasis mine)

This was discussed extensively here, I even remember people accusing them of wasting resource in expanding the search there.

So on DAY 2 they were already admitting that a 777 could have crossed the peninsula without them realising...

Passing remark:
This is losing face, big time. And entirely on their own volition. Saving face would have been saying nothing, and scurrying to lose or accidentally write over the tapes, a la Ustica. They did the honourable thing and got eaten alive for that, go figure.

On day 4 (it was not day 3?... anyway the press conference with the AF chief correcting the misattribution) that was better precised with the full story about the primary returns.

I remember clearly, having read the transcript of the conference either here or on PPrune, that the AF chief very explicitly stated that they were discovered upon reviewing the tapes. So already you have your answer.

Now a couple of facts often overlooked

- the Malaysian peninsula at the location of the crossing is about 100nm width, so we're speaking of a 15 minutes transit

- it sems that the crossing was alongside the Thay/Malaysia border, and there's the distinct possibility that it even entered Thai airspace...

Also it is not that air force worldwide have such a sterling record:

- Mathias Rust managed to land onto the Red Square, during Cold War

- The wreck of a Libyan fighter was discovered on the mountains of Calabria shortly after Ustica and to this day it is not even known if it happened the same day or same day before (contrasting results of forensic evidence from the pilot's body).

- Last year a light aircraft flew undetected from the Canadian border to Tennesse, crashed and burned within the perimeter of BNA, and it was discovered only several hours later...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-16 11:44:36 and read 73215 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 9):
That is what their marketing materials say. But, someone many posts back said MRO was not equipped with satphones. Don't know how to verify that.

Hm, too bad I couldn't/didn't take pictures of the C class in MRF, then.

I think we can figure it out from trip reports, though.

edit: Well, I guess I'll trust their official website, then.


Do we know how many people were in Business Class? Not that it really matters, considering the F/As would be more likely to use the phones in an emergency, I would guess.

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:46:18]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 11:46:56 and read 73131 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Is the secondary radar capable of detailing the heading at which the airframe was moving?

Dang - I should have included primary/secondary radar discussion in the post.

Secondary radar depends on the transponder to respond to an inquiry and does typically include aircraft ID, altitude and, depending on mode, more information.
Primary radar is a reflection off the plane from the outgoing beam. It provides a "blip" but no information on ID - only a direction and distance. And information about heading/altitude/etc must be derived from that reflection and is far less certain. A series of primary returns can be used to build a track/map.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 11:47:04 and read 73118 times.

It seems the circle of first people to be a suspected hijacker is in the business-class. Maybe few front rows from where the cockpit entrance is seen.

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:48:42]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 11:48:15 and read 72931 times.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Is the secondary radar capable of detailing the heading at which the airframe was moving? This may lead to more clues.

Yes a Mode-S transponder is capable of reporting magnetic heading, track angle, all sorts of fun stuff. It is no use when it is switched off, though.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-16 11:50:34 and read 72795 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).

You forgot one crucial point in case a pilot is behind this mystery.
According to the official statement on the 16th the process of switching off the connection started before the final farewell was spoken. So in case it was a pilot that would mean the one who said "good night" was the one (if not both). Its suspicious that the families of the pilots should not have identified yet who of the two said "good night".

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 11:53:55 and read 72585 times.

Quoting MarcoT (Reply 13):
- Mathias Rust managed to land onto the Red Square, during Cold War

This was as a result of massive cascading surveillance failures though, combination with a training exercise and blind luck, and the Soviet air force did quite a lot of housecleaning after that.

This is a 777 in the flight levels, not a Cessna... and in 2014...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 11:54:13 and read 72413 times.

Quoting na (Reply 18):



Pilot could say that himself under threat already..it would not prove he hijacked the airplane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: seb146
Posted 2014-03-16 11:56:28 and read 72238 times.

How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ValleyFlyer
Posted 2014-03-16 11:57:36 and read 72222 times.

Regarding ACARS: ACARS has messages of types 5P and Q6 that are sent when ACARS is switched to :

Here are some sources:
Various ACARS docs such as:
http://www.universal-radio.com/catalog/decoders/acarsweb.pdf

A patent from Boing talking about the 5P generation technical details:
ACARS/VHF transceiver interface unit (AVIU)
Patent number US5809402 A
http://www.google.com/patents/US5809402

I am not sure if it is applicable under these specific circumstances but I could see that as a possible explanation of how it was determined that ACARS was switched off.

As I said before, I'm not an expert on this. But the protocol seems a lot more chatty than just sending a few messages, and I believe regardless whether you subscribed to Boeing AHM or not. Would be nice to have an expert explain.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 11:58:23 and read 72063 times.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

  

As possible as it is for it to reach orbit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-16 11:59:31 and read 74255 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.

Let me correct the above.
The satcom pings would be operating as long as the system is powered up and it is within coverage area.

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 8):
If it is around 5000 km long why not have 10 airplanes fly low and parallel to each other along the arc?

Genius...! Propose that now!   

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-16 12:02:50 and read 74206 times.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

Maybe a Concorde could do it, many of military aircraft can do that for sure.

A 777 would stall way before reaching such an altitude.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 12:03:00 and read 75951 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 25):
The satcom pings would be operating as long as the system is powered up and it is within coverage area.

Thank you. I've update the posting.

------
FYI - I've added a primary/secondary radar discussion.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: FLALEFTY
Posted 2014-03-16 12:03:20 and read 75931 times.

While this is a sad tragedy, my take away is how multiple international players put aside their differences to search for this missing aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Bronko
Posted 2014-03-16 12:04:55 and read 75565 times.

In the previous thread, now closed, someone was discussing the shortcomings of current CVRs, in particular only having an hour of recording ability.

Companies that make the technology for these devices are working on voice and data recorders that will in addition to record, also transmit the data live to the ground.

If that technology was on MH370, it wouldn't still be a mystery. I don't know details, but think this technology is in its infancy and will be quite some time until it is certified and deployed in any significant number.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SonomaFlyer
Posted 2014-03-16 12:05:03 and read 75745 times.

The fact the Captain has a flight simulator and obviously loves to fly isn't necessarily a red flag. It's simply one more item to be checked when going through the backgrounds of both pilots.

The fact ACARS supposedly stopped transmitting before the final voice communication is disturbing. It's obvious they will have to take apart the lives of both pilots, then crew then the passengers to help narrow down the likely theories.

A huge part of the northern arc goes through Western China. The notion an aircraft can transit that much Chinese airspace unchallenged seems unlikely but one never knows. Sweeping the northern arc with satellite photography can help narrow things down considerably. The advent of technology and the ability of computerized parameters on the search can help further. Unfortunately, that won't help the southern arc. Unless Australia's western radar net picked up something, its far less likely we'll find the plane if it flew that route.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SpeckSpot
Posted 2014-03-16 12:05:10 and read 75813 times.

Quite a bit earlier there was a report (and a photo) of a rubber thing (thought to be a Dinghy, bearing the name either "Boarding" or "Boeing") that was found by some fishermen, who held it and
called for help from the MMEA, because it was heavy and they could not load it into their own boat. The MMEA came
and then while they were trying to load it, it sank. Has there been any other information about that? I ask because if I remember correctly, it mentioned that this happened near a town called Port Dickson.

Port Dickson seems to be (according to a Google Map posted towards the end of Thread 29), about 40 miles from the location where the Greek tanker was supposed to go and look (there is a satellite photo of that). (This also was mentioned from a Greek newspaper and has also been picked up by a Swedish one). Apparently another Greek newspaper has said that the tanker got there and found nothing.

My question is: would a Greek tanker like the one mentioned in Thread 29 use Sonar on arriving at the location, or would they just eyeball the area looking for floating debris? Especially because the lead is apparently from a satellite photo, and that photo was taken a while ago before being posted to Tomnod, and it is possible that some things that were floating before have sunk? The other thing is that fixed coordinates like GPS may not correctly locate debris that is floating and moving with sea currents if enough time has passed?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 12:05:26 and read 75788 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 26):
Maybe a Concorde could do it

60k ceiling =(

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: fn1001
Posted 2014-03-16 12:05:27 and read 75921 times.

Is it unusual to say "God night!" when leaving an ATC sector?

Edit: I mean good night...

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:13:29]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 12:06:12 and read 75664 times.

Regarding my "Sanity Checks"

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu

It is my SINCERE HOPE that people posting will take the time to read these. They are a lot of work to put together and the goal is to streamline the conversation by answering questions/providing background information.

I know they are long - I'm as terse as I can be.

By doing this - perhaps we can stop the repeated questions about stuff over and over again - and focus the discussions on new information - give the mods a break.

-rcair1

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 12:08:24 and read 75273 times.

Quoting SpeckSpot (Reply 31):
Quite a bit earlier there was a report (and a photo) of a rubber thing (thought to be a Dinghy, bearing the name either "Boarding" or "Boeing") that was found by some fishermen, who held it and
called for help from the MMEA, because it was heavy and they could not load it into their own boat. The MMEA came
and then while they were trying to load it, it sank. Has there been any other information about that? I ask because if I remember correctly, it mentioned that this happened near a town called Port Dickson.

The 777 slides/rafts were a different colour. It was a marine raft. They all say "Boarding", it's so you know where to board...

Quoting fn1001 (Reply 33):

Is it unusual to say "God night!" when leaving an ATC sector?

Yeah when you are in your own area, especially your home ATC, readbacks and handoffs get sloppy, and on a lonely frequency it's not unheard of to say "Thanks for your help, have a nice night" something like that. It's surely not standard but commonly practiced. Listen to ATC sometimes or go flying yourself, people say crazy shit on the radio way worse than a non-standard handoff.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 12:08:43 and read 75182 times.

Quoting fn1001 (Reply 33):

Is it unusual to say "God night!" when leaving an ATC sector?

No.

See the synopsis in the sanity check.

Well "God" night would be a bit unusual - but not "good" night.

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:12:08]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cabochris
Posted 2014-03-16 12:12:10 and read 74386 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 20):
This is a 777 in the flight levels, not a Cessna... and in 2014...

ya, and what?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 12:12:55 and read 74562 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Mobile phones
• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

First of all, thanks for the sanity checks.

Respectfully though, I think it's overstating it to claim mobile phone discussions are not useful until it's been better established what the probability of overflying countries without having a single cellphone register with any network is likely to be. As SB6715 said in reply 252 of the previous thread there is anecdotal evidence of being able to overfly areas and have your phone inadvertently register with a network below.

For example, suppose there were 200 cell phones on board and 10 of them were left on for whatever reason. Suppose further the aircraft spent a total of 3 hours over areas where cell phone networks exist. What is the probability of making such a trip without having a single phone register? I for one have absolutely no knowledge with which to come up with a meaningful answer but I'm wondering if someone here who knows about cell phone networks could.

If the probability of making such a trip with having zero phones register is very low then I think the absence of any cellphone network registration should be considered quite a significant finding. That finding (if confirmed) adds credence to a flight path out of cell phone range, presumably the so-called southern arc.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: MakeMinesLAX
Posted 2014-03-16 12:13:25 and read 74494 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.

No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC. If the northern route were taken, the primary goal would be to evade defensive radar, which would entail following a very specific path with careful consideration to the countries which were overflown. This may have been accomplished by an attempt to blend in with normal traffic lanes. Since there was no alert issued at the time about a rogue airliner in the area, there would be no extra scrutiny of apparently normal radar traces. Another possibility is that the course involved threading the plane through the Himalayas, which would require a tremendous amount of skill and practice.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: mila
Posted 2014-03-16 12:18:09 and read 73850 times.

>rcair1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1185 posts, RR: 29
>Reply 255, posted Sun Mar 16 2014 19:26:00 your local time (11 minutes 12 secs ago) and read 1508 times: >AIRLINERS.NET CREW
>CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT

>Quoting mila (Reply 242):
>I don't defend the US,

>Why this statement? Very strange.
I did mean that I understand that US did not manage to intercept the 9/11 a/c since they where in US airspace.

>Quoting mila (Reply 242):
>but the tricky thing with 9/11 was that the airplane was in US airspace.

>Actually - there were 4 a/c - all tracked by the same ATC 'system' and relatively local.
>Also - remember - in 2001 the standard response to a hijacking was to cooperate with the hijackers. It wasn't until >after the 2nd tower was hit the we (the world) realized the game had changed.
true.

>Quoting mila (Reply 242):
>Swedish airspace or probably any airspace in the Skandinavian/Baltic region it would be intercepted within 10-15 >minutes.

>Today - sure. In 2001 - are you so sure?
Yes atleast for Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark


>Even in the US today - unless the a/c is near certain specific places, that would not happen.
Yes, as I wrote above there is one thing to detect a/c entering a countries airspace but a total diffent thing when a a/c in a country changes it course or failes to respond since then the ATC needs to inform the airdefence which takes time and ATC needs to be sure that something bad is about to happend and this has been much improved due !







This could provide a lead to investigators.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 12:18:57 and read 73908 times.

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 39):
No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC.

Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 12:23:02 and read 73658 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 41):
Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.

There has been speculation (on CNN and I think here too--volume of posts is somewhat overwhelming) that the pilot was using the simulator to train accomplices.

However, I agree with you. Based on the available information it's unnecessary to invoke an accomplice. The presence of a simulator is likely a red herring.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: shortstack81
Posted 2014-03-16 12:24:40 and read 72848 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 34):
It is my SINCERE HOPE that people posting will take the time to read these. They are a lot of work to put together and the goal is to streamline the conversation by answering questions/providing background information.

Your sanity checks are very useful in reigning the discussion in. The data we have (and what's being leaked too, for that matter) are extremely limited and we have to remember there's 239 missing people.

I only have one question; I can finally put the oil rig worker sighting to bed? I've had trouble dropping it because it was very detailed but it seems likely he didn't see the aircraft based on what little data we have. Perhaps he saw a meteor.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 12:28:00 and read 72624 times.

Quoting shortstack81 (Reply 43):
I only have one question; I can finally put the oil rig worker sighting to bed? I've had trouble dropping it because it was very detailed but it seems likely he didn't see the aircraft based on what little data we have. Perhaps he saw a meteor.

Since the shallow body of water was extensively searched and nothing was found, and we later learned the aircraft was communicating until 0811L, I think we can completely discount whatever phenomena he witnessed as being related to MH370.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 12:28:49 and read 72532 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 103 in the last thread page):
Extremely unlikely it carried unaccounted-for fuel unless somehow staff at the airport were "in on it".5.5hr flight + 2hr contingency + 45-60min extra fuel? Well that would put them a little later than 7.5hr, unless you assume that "45-60min" is above the BARE MINIMUM contingency i.e. for diversions and hold patterns, then 7.5hr sounds about right. There is nothing unusual about that, a few people here have posted that if you're flying into China, their ATC can mess around with you for a while, so it's good to bring extra.

Based on this post, here is what I think we know in terms of aircraft location and range:
1) Last radar position was near the GIVAL waypoint - 200mi NW of the Penang Radar Station... My calc gives an approximate position of: Lat 97.931 Lon 7.029. Live Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934





2) This last contact was at 2:15 AM,

3) The last "Ping" on the satellite was at 8:11 AM - 5 hours and 56 minutes later (I'm going to use 6 hours in my calcs) after the last radar contact.

Here are some things that I thing we can reasonably assume:
1) The range of the aircraft following a similar flight profile to the planned flight was the distance to PEK (2737 Stat Mi), plus 2 Hours contingency @300 Mph (600 Stat Mi), plus 45 min of extra fuel (495mph x.75 = 371 Stat Mi). for an assumed range at 3708 Stat Miles (3222 NM).

2) I think that we can assume that path from KUL to AGARI, to near GIVAL is 760 Statute Miles, based on the measurement tool in the live map.

3) These assumptions leave a potential max range at 495 Mph of 2970 Stat Miles, for the remaining 6 hours after lost radar contact.

This Map shows the 2970 Buffer on that last contact point, if the plane flew in a straight line in any direction. I think this could be close to the max distance possible, and if the assumptions need to be changed, its a simple fix to do another calculation.

[



While we don't know airspeed during that 6 hours, I'm going to assume 495 since it makes my numbers work... (I'll gladly change it if there is a better assumption)
The range of 2970 will only get the plane to a relatively limited range of the circle. The next map is a scenario where the plane continues to the IGREX waypoint and then turns south, skirting the Indonesian radars at Aceh, and then when clear taking a straight shot to the arc. The blue line is the flight path....it lines up right with where they have said they are searching. If my calcs are correct I suspect that if the plane went south it ended up somewhere between the last point on the blue line and Christmas Island, which would have taken the plane 5 hours, at 495 mph, which would leave an hour of non-direct flying....






Lots of assumptions, I know, but not overly outlandish...

SoCalGeo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 12:33:44 and read 71784 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 45):
Lots of assumptions, I know, but not overly outlandish...

It actually all sounds rather reasonable; thank you.

As I mentioned before, I would still like to know if we can use the absence of cellphone network registration as evidence of supporting the southern arc and hence your candidate flight path.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 12:33:52 and read 71747 times.

Well that certainly would put them in very deep water.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-16 12:36:13 and read 71285 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 41):
Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.

I disagree. In and of itself, the simulator means nothing. Indeed, I would think it was pretty awesome under most any other circumstances.

But if the Cap't was the only hijacking pilot he did a number of things that night that he had likely never done before and that extra simulator practice would likely aid:

1) Flying and landing a commercial a/c without a co-pilot. Landing without a co-pilot substantially increases the normal workload. Any commercial pilot can do it, of course, but it is likely something the Cap't never did outside of a simulator.

2) Landing at a unfamiliar airport or airstrip w/o ATC and using ONLY a non-verified visual approach.

A home simulator to practice these things would be potentially very useful. Not saying that is the case here, but I think it is wrong to dismiss the simulator as irrelevant simply because it is also a common hobby.

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:37:06]

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:39:01]

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:39:22]

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:39:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 12:38:12 and read 71193 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 46):
As I mentioned before, I would still like to know if we can use the absence of cellphone network registration as evidence of supporting the southern arc and hence your candidate flight path.

The idea is sound, I've gotten "Welcome" messages from the US on my cell when I was high in the sky and really well on my side of the border, and I imagine the investigators will be attempting to coordinate with all mobile network operators within the potential flight radius - but that could take some time, and could lead nowhere and there are a *lot* of operators.

I have to say though, I always leave my phone on on commercial flights (whatever, so sue me) and I have never gotten a signal or a "Welcome" message in the flight levels. I suppose anything is possible and it depends on the cell towers and how hard your phone's radio is willing to work.

I imagine they are looking into it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TheWipp
Posted 2014-03-16 12:40:36 and read 70857 times.

What I didn't get about that oil rig worker, I'm not familiar with oil rigs, but why was it only one guy? Aren't there a few people on an oil rig? Was he all alone? Wouldn't he call someone when seeing something like this?
That sounds really weird to me.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 12:42:37 and read 70894 times.

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 39):
No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC.

I think a 777 pilot on a 777 could handle this quite easily. I believe you can just enter a series of waypoints (GPS locations) in the flight management computer and the ship will pretty much fly itself there.
Perhaps one of the commercial pilots can comment.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 38):
Respectfully though, I think it's overstating it to claim mobile phone discussions are not useful until it's been better established what the probability of overflying countries without having a single cellphone register with any network is likely to be.

I'm not sure I agree, but you will note I said:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

So - I don't discount it entirely - just state we have no data that such registration has occurred. I fully expect authorities (statements of incompetence aside) would have checked that - though with the broadened search area, it may not be completed.

I also think if a country was not cooperating with that type of investigation - we'd be hearing about.

Really - it is not that hard - while there may be many 'cell phone companies' out there - most share the infrastructure of just a few providers. So the number of logs that need to be searched is not that large.

Probably the biggest/hardest part is getting the #'s/EIN's - that may be blocked by privacy laws in some places. Though in the US - the NSA is reportedly listening to us all.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 12:47:00 and read 69507 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 46):
It actually all sounds rather reasonable; thank you.

As I mentioned before, I would still like to know if we can use the absence of cellphone network registration as evidence of supporting the southern arc and hence your candidate flight path.

Thanks! As to your question, I kind doubt that the lack of registration helps one way or the other. There was a lot of discussion about it yesterday, and my takeaway was that the consensus is that reception at an altitude of over 3-5 thousand feet is very difficult, if not impossible. I have heard no confirmed evidence that the plane was flying that low.

If you look at a possible northern flight path (through radar coverage) you can see that there are some pretty remote locations, and it is conceivable that the plane could have crashed in the north without cell phones ever linking to the network.

I think that the most likely scenario is the southerly turn, when compared to how complex the northern route is in terms of surveillance, and the fact that it hasn't been found yet.



SoCalGeo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ThunderboltDrgn
Posted 2014-03-16 12:48:09 and read 69052 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 45):
Lots of assumptions, I know, but not overly outlandish...

Imo this probably is fairly accurate, around 3000nm range or something like that from IGARI.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SB6715
Posted 2014-03-16 12:48:21 and read 69088 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 46):
As I mentioned before, I would still like to know if we can use the absence of cellphone network registration as evidence of supporting the southern arc and hence your candidate flight path.

I don't think the ABSENCE of phone registration can be taken as an indication of anything. For all we know, everyone remembered to switch off their phone and no one got the chance to switch one on again.

But in the event one phone DID connect to a network at some point after other comms ceased, that could be immensely valuable information. And the closer that happened to the end of the potential duration of the flight, the closer we get to its final destination/resting place.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: CptHaddock
Posted 2014-03-16 12:55:43 and read 67844 times.

Quoting TheWipp (Reply 50):

Just to answer this specific point, the guy was probably not alone on the rig. But in the middle of the night, there's a chance the colleagues were sleeping. And he said he had been trying to contact Malaysian & Vietnamese authorities days before. Anyway, the South China Sea location doesn't match the route described by military radars

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SB6715
Posted 2014-03-16 12:56:32 and read 67507 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 52):
Thanks! As to your question, I kind doubt that the lack of registration helps one way or the other. There was a lot of discussion about it yesterday, and my takeaway was that the consensus is that reception at an altitude of over 3-5 thousand feet is very difficult, if not impossible. I have heard no confirmed evidence that the plane was flying that low.

Well, unless it is still flying, at some point it must have been at an altitude low enough for registration to take place, assuming the descent happened in an area with coverage. So a theoretically active phone could give away the aircraft location if it descended in a covered area.

Registration usually takes less than a minute even when roaming so even a crash like descent might not rule this out.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-16 12:57:49 and read 67554 times.

Excellent summary, rcair1. I have a few comments / questions.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.

Is it confirmed that the distance determination from the satellite is based on the signal strength? More natural means would be to calculate the distance on the round-trip time of the signal (ping and reply) from the satellite to the plane and back?

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.

What Engine Health report does this refer to? Was there a third Engine Health report, as I would suppose this does not refer to either of the first two 'normal' reports.

Edit: remove about exact distance to the satellite, not relevant

[Edited 2014-03-16 13:11:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: AirCalSNA
Posted 2014-03-16 13:00:14 and read 66925 times.

When we were still in thread number 2 I suggested that the plane was hijacked. The mods cut it, I guess because I wasn't toeing the airliners.net officially-sanctioned line of reasoning at the time. The strict insularity of this website can be baffling at times, and frankly seems to stifle free speech.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 11Bravo
Posted 2014-03-16 13:02:32 and read 66475 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 45):
Lots of assumptions, I know, but not overly outlandish...

I've thought something like your scenario is probably the most plausible explanation requiring the fewest assumptions. Something along these lines could have been conducted by one of the flight crew without co-conspirators or far fetched involvement from evil governments

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: btfarrwm
Posted 2014-03-16 13:03:04 and read 66435 times.

I wonder if the investigators have looked into whether the captain or F/O had access to any sedative medications. People seem to be assuming that a violent takeover was involved, however a large dose of a sedative slipped into a beverage would be a much more subtle way to incapacitate your partner. Especially with a two man crew and a locked cockpit door.

[Edited 2014-03-16 13:06:37]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: MakeMinesLAX
Posted 2014-03-16 13:05:55 and read 65994 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 41):
Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.

Presumably, you're referring to the waypoints which were mapped out in one of the earlier threads, and the indication that the deliberate turns made over such suggested a course dialed into the autopilot. This information came from the primary radar traces, which only covered the earliest part of the flight over the Malacca Strait. I don't think it's silly at all to suggest a different tack was needed to overfly land.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 48):
But if the Cap't was the only hijacking pilot he did a number of things that night that he had likely never done before and that extra simulator practice would likely aid:

1) Flying and landing a commercial a/c without a co-pilot. Landing without a co-pilot substantially increases the normal workload. Any commercial pilot can do it, of course, but it is likely something the Cap't never did outside of a simulator.

2) Landing at a unfamiliar airport or airstrip w/o ATC and using ONLY a non-verified visual approach.

A home simulator to practice these things would be potentially very useful. Not saying that is the case here, but I think it is wrong to dismiss the simulator as irrelevant simply because it is also a common hobby.

If the goal of commandeering the flight were to fly a non-standard evasive route at night and land it safely at anything but a commercial airstrip, practicing becomes of utmost importance.

[Edited 2014-03-16 13:19:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: DDR
Posted 2014-03-16 13:06:00 and read 66035 times.

Has the airline released any information regarding the passengers? In particular, if there were any airline employees (pilots) who were riding in the back? If it was a hijacking, maybe it wasn't the flight crew? Maybe it was someone from the cabin that the crew trusted and allowed to enter the cockpit.

Because of the amount of time the plane was in the air, it seems pretty obvious that nothing catastrophic suddenly happened which caused the plane to immediately crash.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ComeAndGo
Posted 2014-03-16 13:07:25 and read 65728 times.

Quoting AirCalSNA (Reply 58):
When we were still in thread number 2 I suggested that the plane was hijacked.

So, was the plane hijacked ? It looks more like a pilot suicide.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-16 13:10:41 and read 65130 times.

This has probably been answered before, so please pardon me. Is there are warning to alert pilots if the ACARS stops functioning or is shut down? I am curious. That this system was shut down before the last verbal communication from the cockpit, I am wondering if the pilots had that knowledge. Just trying to ascertain an confirm this fact.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 13:14:53 and read 64538 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 57):
The red arcs indicate the distance from the satellite that corresponds to the measured round-trip time. If the altitude of the aircraft, exact round-trip time, and the latency for a reply to a ping in the SATCOM device would be known exactly, there would be only two points instead of two arcs on either side of the satellite having the same distance from the satellite

No, there would still be a circle.

You cannot derive the aircraft's position with just one geostationary satellite, even down to two points.

What they did is calculate the distance from the satellite (using tx/rx delta, or signal strength, or whatever they felt was accurate) and that creates a sphere where the aircraft could be on the surface of that sphere. Then you intersect that with a sphere representing the earth, and the result is a circle on the earth's surface. You can discount any locations where you have PSR data, and any locations that would be out of flight range, and you are left with two arcs.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: trnswrld
Posted 2014-03-16 13:17:30 and read 64317 times.

Quoting AirCalSNA (Reply 58):

When we were still in thread number 2 I suggested that the plane was hijacked. The mods cut it, I guess because I wasn't toeing the airliners.net officially-sanctioned line of reasoning at the time. The strict insularity of this website can be baffling at times, and frankly seems to stifle free speech.


Wow are you serious, the mods deleted your thread suggesting hijack? That's messed up, what is that supposed to be offensive to someone these days? Funny they would delete that scenario which looks damn plausible, but I have seen people say the plane was abducted and is now in space LOL. Awesome a.net!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: gr325
Posted 2014-03-16 13:19:40 and read 64127 times.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 63):
So, was the plane hijacked ? It looks more like a pilot suicide.

Why fly so many hours for a suicide. Surly he wasn't waiting 5 plus hours for the other pilot to go take a piss  

[Edited 2014-03-16 13:20:39]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-16 13:22:06 and read 63400 times.

Quoting gr325 (Reply 67):
Why fly so many hours for a suicide.

To never find the plane. Seems to be working.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: norm1153
Posted 2014-03-16 13:22:12 and read 63677 times.

Is this already old news?

http://www.pprune.org/8380661-post4551.html

Greek ship found a suitcase Malacca Strait.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 13:24:07 and read 63074 times.

Quoting norm1153 (Reply 69):
Is this already old news?

http://www.pprune.org/8380661-post4551.html

Greek ship found a suitcase Malacca Strait.

Old news. They did not find a suitcase. They didn't find anything.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-16 13:28:24 and read 62312 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 65):
No, there would still be a circle.

You are correct. I removed that part from my post.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 13:29:07 and read 62386 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 57):
Is it confirmed that the distance determination from the satellite is based on the signal strength?

No. I don't know how they did it.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 57):

I believe it was the 2nd engine health report

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 13:31:53 and read 62406 times.

Sorry if posted before, but in this article Bloomberg claims that last transmission was 1000 miles west of Perth.

"Satellite transmission data analyzed by U.S. investigators showed that the Malaysian Airline (MAS) System Bhd. jetliner’s most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) west of Perth, Australia, said two people in the U.S. government who are familiar with the readings. Najib was told that is the most promising lead on locating the plane, one of the people said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-flight-deliberately-diverted.html

Is it new or already discussed and two arcs are still equal possiblity?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 11Bravo
Posted 2014-03-16 13:33:03 and read 61791 times.

Quoting gr325 (Reply 67):
Why fly so many hours for a suicide.

Suicide is an inherently irrational action and it seems you're expecting a logical thought process. Looking for a rational reason "why?" is probably an exercise in futility.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SamH123
Posted 2014-03-16 13:34:10 and read 61506 times.

Small detail, but I assume the reports of the plane turning at it went off radar are true?

I was wondering how we know the plane turned?
If someone had planned something meticulously to not be found out, surely they make sure to disable the transponder, *then* start the turn.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ThunderboltDrgn
Posted 2014-03-16 13:37:09 and read 61330 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 73):
Sorry if posted before, but in this article Bloomberg claims
that last transmission was 1000 miles west of Perth

I don't think I have seen that before but the question then would be how it could get inside
Australias new fancy radar coverage which is supposed to have a range of 2600-4000km?

http://web.archive.org/web/200711160...ence-data.com/features/fpage37.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3094895.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindale...l_Radar_Network#Operation_and_uses

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 13:38:22 and read 61477 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 73):

Sorry if posted before, but in this article Bloomberg claims that last transmission was 1000 miles west of Perth.

It's within the flight range and it's near the southern arc, if you discount the northern arc because of radar exposure near the coast and over land then it is the "more likely" scenario.

But most likely is the key word. It is probably in the drink to the south, indeed. Now they just have to disprove all other possibilities by proving where it is   A tough problem.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: planesmart
Posted 2014-03-16 13:45:38 and read 60332 times.

Presumably authorities will be checking to see if the pilot ever attempted water landings on the simulator.

Hopefully airborne searchers have a portable cell phone array on board, and all the passenger and crew phone numbers. No help of course if underwater.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 13:47:52 and read 60216 times.

Quoting planesmart (Reply 78):
Hopefully airborne searchers have a portable cell phone array on board, and all the passenger and crew phone numbers. No help of course if underwater.

You realize the flight has been missing for over a week, right? If they're in some hotel where they can plug in their phones, I think they're gonna be OK.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 13:47:55 and read 60514 times.

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 76):
but the question then would be how it could get inside
Australias new fancy radar coverage which is supposed to have a range of 2600-4000km

Seems like Australian authorities also wonder the same:

"The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said it had no reliable information to indicate MH370 may have approached Australia.
A spokesman said: “AMSA has not received reliable information indicating that Malaysian Airlines’ flight MH370 may have approached Australia or entered the Australian search and rescue region."

http://www.news.com.au/world/malaysi...ikely/story-fndir2ev-1226855315871

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ushermittwoch
Posted 2014-03-16 13:48:37 and read 59761 times.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 74):
Suicide is an inherently irrational action and it seems you're expecting a logical thought process. Looking for a rational reason "why?" is probably an exercise in futility.

Suicide can be very rational. Maybe not in this case, but I can think of many scenarios in which suicide is possibly the best option.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2014-03-16 13:48:40 and read 59828 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 38):
For example, suppose there were 200 cell phones on board and 10 of them were left on for whatever reason.

And suppose at least 5 of those were smartphones equipped with GPS chips; couldn't those have been used as a potential source of a signal to trace the last-known location of the aircraft? It's not like a cellular signal would be needed to get a GPS fix.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 13:49:39 and read 59731 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
• ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.

Well said. I think my earlier post a few threads back was taken out of context. To fully disable ACARS requires a trip to the E/E bay. Stopping a transmission despite the system being active, which seems to be the case here, can be done from the flight deck.

Anyhow, thanks for putting together these summaries, rcair1.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

Not only is this not possible in a commercial airliner like 77E (simple answer is that it would result in a stall due to inadequate lift in thinner air) but I have my doubts about MH370 sustaining flight at 45,000 because of its weight. Perhaps it was later/after a fuel dump. Perhaps it was only for a moment, followed by a dive. Or maybe just misinformation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 13:52:42 and read 59373 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 82):
And suppose at least 5 of those were smartphones equipped with GPS chips; couldn't those have been used as a potential source of a signal to trace the last-known location of the aircraft? It's not like a cellular signal would be needed to get a GPS fix.

Realistically it's probably more like 230 phones on board, 200 of them on, 90% of them smartphones

Not everyone has a GPS app that stores maps locally installed, though some do. Presumably with so many pax *someone* figured it out. You know, if we assume they were awake/alive :/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 13:53:28 and read 59387 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 73):
Satellite transmission data analyzed by U.S. investigators showed that the Malaysian Airline (MAS) System Bhd. jetliner’s most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) west of Perth, Australia, said two people in the U.S. government who are familiar with the readings. Najib was told that is the most promising lead on locating the plane, one of the people said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-flight-deliberately-diverted.html

Is it new or already discussed and two arcs are still equal possibility?

Seems to me like the general area is within 100 miles or so our calculations, (2970 statute mile range, and 495 mph for 6 hours...) which I think is well within our margin of error, based on our assumptions for the range, speed, and time in the air.



Live Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

SoCalGeo

[Edited 2014-03-16 13:56:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ROSWELL41
Posted 2014-03-16 13:56:09 and read 59124 times.

This plane has been at the bottom of the Indian Ocean for the last 8 days. We will likely never find it. Egyptair 990, Silkair 185, LAM 470 and now MH 370. We'll never know for sure, but that is the overall consensus.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 13:58:19 and read 58422 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 85):

Thank you very much for visuals, I was about to ask someone to do it... 

I hope they are already on the way to that point. It narrows the search area quite a lot and I hope they find something.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: dragon6172
Posted 2014-03-16 14:02:20 and read 57829 times.

Quoting gr325 (Reply 67):
Why fly so many hours for a suicide

The suicide could have happened well away from the crash site. It has been said the aircraft was following some airways / nav points. Once the pilot has control of the aircraft he could have punched in a flight plan to the middle of the Indian Ocean and then offed himself some how. Plane would just follow the nav points until running out of fuel.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-16 14:04:27 and read 57538 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 35):
By doing this - perhaps we can stop the repeated questions about stuff over and over again - and focus the discussions on new information - give the mods a break.

one of only 2 handsfull of worthy coments I have read in the past 30 odd threads! thanks guys for providing the platform on a subject we all know very little more about than on day 1! this will be the one to tell the grandchilderen about .. and the one that will sadly probably keep us guessing for months to come....... !

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 14:04:29 and read 57503 times.

Regarding cell phones, there is interesting link claiming it's allowed in Malaysian Airlines to use cell phones on board

http://www.amta.org.au/newsletters/EME.Update.March.2013?Article=38830

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:05:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-16 14:06:58 and read 57069 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 85):
Seems to me like the general area is within 100 miles or so our calculations, (2970 statute mile range, and 495 mph for 6 hours...) which I think is well within our margin of error, based on our assumptions for the range, speed, and time in the air.

Interesting ... If true, I wonder if the currents down their head south and east toward Antarctica or that the Marianas Trench was too obviously ....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-16 14:07:07 and read 57010 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 90):
Regarding cell phones, there is interesting link claiming it's allowed in Malaysia to use cell phones on board

yes, but they are still limited in range and no, that will not go away, even with 4G! Let´s stay on the carpet please, had it landed anywhere "civilized" , the phones would be the easiest to find/detect!

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:10:29]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-16 14:07:25 and read 57123 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 85):

What hypothesis would fit with that diagram?. That once they (the hijackers), could go to where they wanted, (in a straight line, as it seems?), they ran out of fuel?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 14:09:02 and read 56726 times.

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 92):

It only gives perspective how many phones would be switched on. If airline doesn't require them off, the number can be much more than just 20 forgotten to be offlined...

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:09:43]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 14:09:32 and read 57104 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 90):
Regarding cell phones, there is interesting link claiming it's allowed in Malaysian Airlines to use cell phones on board

Yes they had a 777 with a Honeywell microcell on board that allowed passengers to talk and text at exorbitant rates. It was a pilot program, not on the accident aircraft, and from what I heard was removed/discontinued.

http://www51.honeywell.com/honeywell...TechnologyEnablesCellPhoneUse.html

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 89):
one of only 2 handsfull of worthy coments I have read in the past 30 odd threads! thanks guys for providing the platform on a subject we all know very little more about than on day 1! this will be the one to tell the grandchilderen about .. and the one that will sadly probably keep us guessing for months to come....... !

Thank you for the kind words, but please fix the quote as I did not write the post you attribute to me.

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:12:26]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 14:17:12 and read 55481 times.

Quoting btfarrwm (Reply 60):
I wonder if the investigators have looked into whether the captain or F/O had access to any sedative medications. People seem to be assuming that a violent takeover was involved, however a large dose of a sedative slipped into a beverage would be a much more subtle way to incapacitate your partner. Especially with a two man crew and a locked cockpit door.

It could also have been due to a suicidal member of the cabin crew who poisoned or drugged the pilots' coffee or other drinks in the galley. That doesn't explain the turn to the west, but perhaps the pilots realized something was wrong when they started falling asleep and initiated a turn to try and return to KUL, and then passed out, and the aircraft kept flying until it ran out of fuel in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: glbltrvlr
Posted 2014-03-16 14:19:31 and read 55031 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
ACARS

>> ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.

ACARS messages can be used for ATC purposes (Google 'FANS') as a replacement for verbal contact and Airline Operational Control (AOC) purposes. AOC messages can include position reports, maintenance reports, gate assignments, weather uplinks, weather downlinks, and many other purposes. To represent ACARS as a maintenance system would be incorrect. In the part of the world that MH370 was operating, its unlikely it was being used for ATC purposes.

>> ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.

While it is not a flight control system, it certain parts of the world it can be used as a replacement for verbal messages and as a means of reporting position information to ATC over the ocean.

>> ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.

ACARS billing is based on the quantity of data transferred, and the means by which it is transferred (SATCOM messages are more expensive that VHF messages), not by the message content. The 777 has a very configurable maintenance computer. Data reported and frequency of reporting is up to the airline.

>> ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.

ACARS messages are never transferred over Wifi. Some airlines may use a separate Gatelink Wifi connection to transfer large datasets to/from the aircraft.

>> ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.

True.

>> The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
>> "We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System
>> (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
>> No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.

ACARS can easily be turned off at any time by the flight crew from the cockpit. Note that this does not mean the radios have been powered off and housekeeping messages between the radios and the ground may still occur. So, if MH had programmed their 777s to report engine or maintenance status every 10 minutes and those reports stopped, it would be possible to infer that the system was disabled at a certain time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 14:19:55 and read 55076 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 96):
and the aircraft kept flying until it ran out of fuel in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

What about others on board then? No attempt to do anything?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-16 14:19:58 and read 55389 times.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

It´s impossible. The plane would simply stop flying and drop. I´m not sure at what level but my guess is the maximum it could reach would be 45,000 to 48,000

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 74):
Suicide is an inherently irrational action and it seems you're expecting a logical thought process. Looking for a rational reason "why?" is probably an exercise in futility.

No. Suicide is a very rational decision and the thought process leading to it is too. Wether it´s the wrong decision in general, is up to debate but most people who do it are not psychotic and are oriented in time and space.

http://internacional.elpais.com/inte.../actualidad/1394973097_356370.html

According to the above investigators had been doing experiments all of last week with a 777, including following the flightpath of MH370 after contact was lost. The returns on primary radar observed with these experiments were exactly like the ones observed the night MH370 went missing.

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:51:12]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Freeman
Posted 2014-03-16 14:20:29 and read 55184 times.

I posted this yesterday...

One or both pilots are involved.

The passengers probably didn't know anything was amiss and were just settling in for the long red eye flight.

Assuming the aircraft turned and was flying to the NW, they were gaining time (flying into the darkness) which tells us they most likely landed at a military airfield (think Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia) and concealed the aircraft in a hangar before the sun came up...and well before the public was aware of a missing aircraft.

The plane has already been repainted and will soon be repurposed as a weapon of mass destruction. There's a reason they wanted a heavy (+/-7,500 mile range) jumbo jet and I have a news flash...it's not to sell off its parts or fly it to Switzerland to request asylum.

Potential targets include Tel Aviv (make it look like an Iranian op so that the rest of the world can justify another war) and Washington D.C. because the American regime (and I'm an American) is the biggest exporter of war the world has ever seen.

This is a very well planned, financed and rehearsed government sponsored act...think Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Iran.

The aircraft with it's new livery and transponder will (sooner than later) be utilized in an attack that will rival a 9/11 or any other act of terrorism we've ever witnessed.

---

Still think this is fantasy?

Keep your eyes on Tel Aviv...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 14:23:53 and read 54530 times.

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 97):
ACARS billing is based on the quantity of data transferred, and the means by which it is transferred (SATCOM messages are more expensive that VHF messages), not by the message content. The 777 has a very configurable maintenance computer. Data reported and frequency of reporting is up to the airline.

I think the intention there was to say that MH subscribed to basic AHM through VHF only, and EHM over SATCOM. I believe these would be "rules" configured into the maintenance computer, right?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 14:27:13 and read 54202 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 38):
If the probability of making such a trip with having zero phones register is very low then I think the absence of any cellphone network registration should be considered quite a significant finding. That finding (if confirmed) adds credence to a flight path out of cell phone range, presumably the so-called southern arc.

Thanks. Whether a cell phone registered or did not register, I am sure the authorities will keep this info confidential as the potential hijacker would know what areas have been eliminated in locating the plane. For example, if they did get a cell phone that registered to a network, it won;t be wise to publicly disclose the info.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ThunderboltDrgn
Posted 2014-03-16 14:28:03 and read 54096 times.

According to the Independent, 3000miles (2600nm) was the aircrafts maximum range at FL300.
I think this is the first time I have seen such a specific range specification.

How much further could they have reached at FL350/400?

http://www.independent.co.uk/incomin.../w620/16March_MalaysiaPlaneweb.jpg
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...and-crew-investigated-9195320.html


Regarding Bloomberg article, which was timestamped at around 5 this morning UK time,
neither The Independent, The Guardian, The BBC or the Mirror mentions anything about
it, so it could just have been Bllomberg who made an assumption that it could have reached
that far if they have followed the southern route.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 11Bravo
Posted 2014-03-16 14:29:09 and read 53904 times.

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 81):
Maybe not in this case, but I can think of many scenarios in which suicide is possibly the best option.


Well, as you might imagine I WAS refering to this case,.... as odd as that might seem. I cannot imagine a logical or rational reason for killing 200+ other people in your own quest for self destruction.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 14:31:00 and read 53545 times.

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 97):
ACARS messages are never transferred over Wifi. Some airlines may use a separate Gatelink Wifi connection to transfer large datasets to/from the aircraft.

I think what he meant to say (or is confused about) is that data such as EHM summaries can be sent over gatelink to avoid broadcast costs.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 99):
I´m not sure at what level but my guess is the maximum it could reach would be 45,000 to 48,000

Less, and dependent on weight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 14:31:27 and read 53714 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 94):
It only gives perspective how many phones would be switched on. If airline doesn't require them off, the number can be much more than just 20 forgotten to be offlined...

If, in fact, we had 200 phones on and cell phones were registering with towers - don't you think we'd know?
We have heard nothing but "they are ringing" comments - which we know are not useful.
They found pings on a SATCOM - do you think they would not have checked at least the cell network in Malaysia by now?

It is such an obvious thing to look for .... And not technically that hard.

Can somebody please go up in a plane to 30K, sit somewhere and try to call/text while flying over area with good coverage.
Wait - somebody has. Well - they did not go above 8K.
Here is there results. BTW - they were flying private (propeller driven) planes - I think a fast jet would impact it negatively.

See http://physics911.net/projectachilles/

altitude (feet) probability of cellphone call getting through
4,000 0.400
8,000 0.100
12,000 0.040
16,000 0.025
20,000 0.016
24,000 0.011
28,000 0.008
32,000 0.006

At the altitude of most of MH370's flight - probability - less than 1 in 100 calls would go through.
Now - does this mean the phone would not 'register' with the network - not sure.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-16 14:31:30 and read 53732 times.

Has it been confirmed that it was the captain's voice as this article says:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...words-said-after-plane-seized.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2014-03-16 14:32:11 and read 53503 times.

Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):
Keep your eyes on Tel Aviv...

The only problem with Tel Aviv as a target is that the Israelis wouldn't hesitate for a moment to shoot down that aircraft once their air force picked it up. Assuming the aircraft was taken with the intent of being repurposed as a long-range delivery system for a nuclear, biological or chemical weapon the target would need to be one where the military defending it would hesitate to down a commercial aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Ryanair01
Posted 2014-03-16 14:32:39 and read 53609 times.

I don't know how accurate these reports are, but it is being reported that the Captain was a major supporter of the Malaysian Opposition Politician Anwar Ibrahim, who was sentenced to five years jail for homosexual acts on the 7th March.

It is being reported that Captain Shah actually attended the courtroom where he witnessed Anwar's sentencing, immediately before reporting to work for MH370. There are various pictures circulating of the Captain wearing an anti government "Democracy is Dead" protest T-shirt in support of Anwar (scroll down the linked report about half way).

There are also unconfirmed suggestions Captain Shah's wife and daughter moved out of their home in the days before MH370's disappearance.

If the above is true, the combination of a captain under huge emotional stress, angry with his country and the seemingly high level of B777 operational knowledge needed to systematically turn the various systems off and vanish at the point of hand over between Malay and Vietnamese air traffic control, makes crew sabotage seem very possible. A politically motivated act highlighting Malaysia's social problems, by a Captain who doesn't feel like they have a whole lot to live for is becoming a tragically compelling line of inquiry.

It would also explain the Malaysian Government's alleged caginess about confirming details. Already the European Union has expressed concerns about the Anwar trial, suggesting it looks to be a political show trial. If the Malaysian Government admit that a Malaysian plane was lost due to something most people see as political detention, analysts believe Anwar would probably win any elections were he not in jail, it would be very hard for the government to survive.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-walk-security-final-time-off.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 11Bravo
Posted 2014-03-16 14:34:39 and read 53146 times.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 93):
What hypothesis would fit with that diagram?.

Pilot/Aircrew suicide.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: peterinlisbon
Posted 2014-03-16 14:34:41 and read 53228 times.

I don't think we'll see it in Tel Aviv any time soon, and if any type of unidentified aircraft does go anywhere near Israel then it will be shot down long before it gets close enough to do any damage.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 14:36:41 and read 52868 times.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 93):
What hypothesis would fit with that diagram?. That once they (the hijackers), could go to where they wanted, (in a straight line, as it seems?), they ran out of fuel?

It's hard for me to say, we came up with a range estimate of 2970 miles, but we really don't know. It could be more, but it is likely that it is not more than 15 or 20% more...(300 - 600 miles). So we can be pretty confident that it couldn't go much longer, given the time and range constraints that we have (6 hrs, 2970 mi, +/-)

I have to believe that the Australians would have seen it on radar if it got much closer. So I think that its a pretty fair guess that the plane went into the ocean.

If the report of the last "ping" being located "1000 miles from Perth", is real, and accurate, then I think it narrows the location down a lot. Check out this map:



Live Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

If the report is real, then I'm thinking that red shaded ellipse is where the search will need to focus. This is because the plane could have taken a straight route through Indonesian airspace, which would have put it at the bottom of the ellipse, which is roughly 1000 miles from Perth.
if the plane went around Indonesian airspace then I think that it could be at the top of the ellipse. The curved red line is simply an arc that shows the 1000 mile distance from Perth within the ellipse, I doubt that the ping location will be this accurate, but it helps me visualize it so I put it on the map...

I guess I really didn't answer your question, and I cant really say, buy if the plane is found at the northern part of the ellipse then I could draw a flight path that is aimed for Perth. Perhaps, if anyone was in control, they wanted asylum, and actually thought they could make it. I think if it is at the south end then perhaps they were heading for Antarctica, knowing that they would not make it.

I doubt we will ever find out.

SoCal Geo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 14:36:58 and read 52784 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 106):
If, in fact, we had 200 phones on and cell phones were registering with towers - don't you think we'd know?

I believe they never registered because they never reached any base station coverage since there are no base stations across Indian ocean. Also on the early stage of missing from the route, base stations registrations is what could help to authorities to track the plane. Maybe it would explain why no jet was sent, maybe there was no primary radar coverage...
But it's just maybies going from logic based on certain assumptions...

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:37:59]

[Edited 2014-03-16 14:46:01]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 14:39:27 and read 52602 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 99):
Suicide is a very rational decision and the thought process leading to it is too.

"Over 90 percent of people who commit suicide have been diagnosed with mental illness."
Link

"More than two-thirds of all suicides are driven by a mentally disordered mind, experts say."
Link

Typically, "rational suicide" is a term used to describe terminally ill people who are seeking a quick resolution to their pain and suffering.
Link

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: glbltrvlr
Posted 2014-03-16 14:45:10 and read 51498 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 101):
I think the intention there was to say that MH subscribed to basic AHM through VHF only, and EHM over SATCOM. I believe these would be "rules" configured into the maintenance computer, right?

The airline will take link cost and message source into consideration when programming the rules for sending messages, but that is usually done in the CMF. The essence of the statement is correct though.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: slvrblt
Posted 2014-03-16 14:46:10 and read 51382 times.

Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):
I posted this yesterday...

One or both pilots are involved.

The passengers probably didn't know anything was amiss and were just settling in for the long red eye flight.

Assuming the aircraft turned and was flying to the NW, they were gaining time (flying into the darkness) which tells us they most likely landed at a military airfield (think Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia) and concealed the aircraft in a hangar before the sun came up...and well before the public was aware of a missing aircraft.

The plane has already been repainted and will soon be repurposed as a weapon of mass destruction. There's a reason they wanted a heavy (+/-7,500 mile range) jumbo jet and I have a news flash...it's not to sell off its parts or fly it to Switzerland to request asylum.

Potential targets include Tel Aviv (make it look like an Iranian op so that the rest of the world can justify another war) and Washington D.C. because the American regime (and I'm an American) is the biggest exporter of war the world has ever seen.

This is a very well planned, financed and rehearsed government sponsored act...think Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Iran.

The aircraft with it's new livery and transponder will (sooner than later) be utilized in an attack that will rival a 9/11 or any other act of terrorism we've ever witnessed.

---

Still think this is fantasy?

Keep your eyes on Tel Aviv...



^^^^^^
This.
I alluded to something similar to this scenario back in part 14, reply 293. I hope to god this guy and me are both wrong, I hope these poor folks have found a final resting place somewhere.
But it makes a chilling amount of sense.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 14:47:04 and read 51300 times.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 110):
Pilot/Aircrew suicide.

If it was suicide, then he knowingly also wanted to take others with him. Why stop at that? Why not also crash into KL? The hijacker took meticulous detail to not get noticed. With such skill, he could have done bigger damage if he is depressed or has mental illness.

With the way the communications were turned off, the professionalism in flying the plane, I don't think this is suicide. I think this airplane had a lot more fuel than was documented (the captain signs off the fuel sheet) and its safest route with not being detected en-route (flying in the dark) is somewhere like Somalia through the Indian Ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-16 14:48:06 and read 51038 times.

I have refrained from posting,because quite frankly we dont know what happened an all these 30 threads, are just a big guessing game.

What I know is that the Malaysian government has a big black eye from this tragedy, The Airline is in the middle of the biggest PR disaster ever, and as days pass the media/world/authorities, are getting nervous because of the lack of real info about this.

All we have is reports of scattered data and conflicting info.

By now they should have released the pilots, because quite frankly if they were going to commit suicide, the data we have (as scarce as it is) points to something else. Who would fly so many hours to commit suicide?

As much as Iike this resolved, I think that they will never find the aircraft, this will continue , and someday they will give us a made up explanation to calm the public.

NO, I dont have a tin foil hat on, but I find it imposible that all that very disputed zone with the USA and the chinesse involved, they have no info, not came forward with tracking.

This sad event will aunt us for a long time.

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 14:49:30 and read 51071 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 98):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 96):
and the aircraft kept flying until it ran out of fuel in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

What about others on board then? No attempt to do anything?

For the first 5 or 6 hours they wouldn't know anything was wrong, especially at night. And beyond that point when they wondered why they hadn't arrived in PEK, what could they do?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: aseem
Posted 2014-03-16 14:52:06 and read 50464 times.

To all those suicide theorists. If the Captain were to commit suicide, why does he have go off the radar. He does not even have to go to full cruising height. He can just plunge into the Gulf of Thailand.

rgds
VT-ASJ

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-16 14:52:17 and read 50410 times.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 116):
Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):
I posted this yesterday...

One or both pilots are involved.

The passengers probably didn't know anything was amiss and were just settling in for the long red eye flight.

Assuming the aircraft turned and was flying to the NW, they were gaining time (flying into the darkness) which tells us they most likely landed at a military airfield (think Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia) and concealed the aircraft in a hangar before the sun came up...and well before the public was aware of a missing aircraft.

The plane has already been repainted and will soon be repurposed as a weapon of mass destruction. There's a reason they wanted a heavy (+/-7,500 mile range) jumbo jet and I have a news flash...it's not to sell off its parts or fly it to Switzerland to request asylum.

Potential targets include Tel Aviv (make it look like an Iranian op so that the rest of the world can justify another war) and Washington D.C. because the American regime (and I'm an American) is the biggest exporter of war the world has ever seen.

This is a very well planned, financed and rehearsed government sponsored act...think Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Iran.

The aircraft with it's new livery and transponder will (sooner than later) be utilized in an attack that will rival a 9/11 or any other act of terrorism we've ever witnessed.

---

Still think this is fantasy?

Keep your eyes on Tel Aviv...



^^^^^^
This.
I alluded to something similar to this scenario back in part 14, reply 293. I hope to god this guy and me are both wrong, I hope these poor folks have found a final resting place somewhere.
But it makes a chilling amount of sense.

how would you know if the plane is not already in Israel? How would we know if Israel is the party that was interested in the "Cargo" in the plane and not Iran? Speculations and theories will never end.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cabochris
Posted 2014-03-16 14:55:04 and read 50142 times.

Quoting Ryanair01 (Reply 109):

UK Rag Tabloid!! Shameful!

"Captain was a major supporter of the Malaysian Opposition Politician Anwar Ibrahim, who was sentenced to five years jail for homosexual acts on the 7th March."

So are many Malay's. This is also not the first time this action has happened in Malaysia, plus its only a 5 year sentence (house arrest) and stupid political move that will backfire in this day and age.

"It is being reported that Captain Shah actually attended the courtroom where he witnessed Anwar's sentencing, immediately before reporting to work for MH370"

So not true.... this is criminal! Anwar was acquitted and that acquittal was overturned on March 4th, 2014. It was not a sentencing, and Captain Shah was NOT there.

"There are also unconfirmed suggestions Captain Shah's wife and daughter moved out of their home in the days before MH370's disappearance"

Someone interpreted that this occurred. When only the wife and Captain moved into a home owned by them, where their single adult daughter is living.

"There are various pictures circulating of the Captain wearing an anti government "Democracy is Dead" protest T-shirt in support of Anwar"

So what, wouldnt you if they did that to Ed Miliband?

Where are you 28420

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 14:55:11 and read 50054 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 119):
For the first 5 or 6 hours they wouldn't know anything was wrong, especially at night. And beyond that point when they wondered why they hadn't arrived in PEK, what could they do?

What about other F/As? No interaction with the cockpit would seem strange to them. If plane flies straight, no banking those guys would certianly notice something is wrong. Also possible turbulence and no messages for belts, no information messages from the captain...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-16 14:55:29 and read 50248 times.

Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):
Potential targets include Tel Aviv (make it look like an Iranian op so that the rest of the world can justify another war) and Washington D.C. because the American regime (and I'm an American) is the biggest exporter of war the world has ever seen

Now there is a new theory! It was probably those US Boys on board! Just like 9/11 and all we learnt on/in the ´Loose Change' movies how capable they are and we are all just dumb sheep!
Right, on then, I´d better grab another Beer before the evil US operatives fullfill their plans........(forgive the inrony under these sad circumstanes, but... yes, well.....!!)
But hang on, I forgot the previous thread, of course this tripple is now at Diego Garcia!

Can we get back to the known & aviation related known Facts now plse?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ComeAndGo
Posted 2014-03-16 14:56:48 and read 49798 times.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 63):
Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 111):
I don't think we'll see it in Tel Aviv any time soon, and if any type of unidentified aircraft does go anywhere near Israel then it will be shot down long before it gets close enough to do any damage.

Really ? Even if it had an ELAL livery ? I wouldn't be to sure about Israeli readiness. When Lebanese terrorists used an Iranian sourced anti ship missile to hit an Israeli war ship some ten years ago, guess what, the ship's defensive system was switched off and the missile hit the boat causing massive damage.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-16 14:58:34 and read 49371 times.

Quoting KIAS (Reply 114):
"Over 90 percent of people who commit suicide have been diagnosed with mental illness."
Link

"More than two-thirds of all suicides are driven by a mentally disordered mind, experts say."
Link

Typically, "rational suicide" is a term used to describe terminally ill people who are seeking a quick resolution to their pain and suffering.
Link

Did you actually read the articles you linked? I suppose you didn´t because I see nothing there that says suicide can´t be a rational process. And just so you know, not all mental illnesses mean people cannot be rational. Since I don´t want to turn this into a suicide debate, I´ll refrain from posting further about this issue in THIS thread, but it´s a good idea to read what you are going to post as a source to make a point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-16 14:58:34 and read 49453 times.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 117):
If it was suicide, then he knowingly also wanted to take others with him. Why stop at that? Why not also crash into KL? The hijacker took meticulous detail to not get noticed. With such skill, he could have done bigger damage if he is depressed or has mental illness.

Just because you think he would have crashed into KL or it's not a suicide is illogical thinking. There have been a few very reasonable ideas mentioned over and over why a suicidal/homicidal pilot would fly due south toward Antarctica ....

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 118):
By now they should have released the pilots, because quite frankly if they were going to commit suicide, the data we have (as scarce as it is) points to something else. Who would fly so many hours to commit suicide?

Quiet the opposite. The data we have, which is scarce, makes pilot suicide the most plausible scenario. Everyone who says suicide doesn't make sense is using illogical reasoning to dismiss it. There is a lot of this going on here ... fascinating when you think about it ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: GipperPDX
Posted 2014-03-16 15:01:37 and read 49143 times.

Quoting aseem (Reply 120):
To all those suicide theorists. If the Captain were to commit suicide, why does he have go off the radar. He does not even have to go to full cruising height. He can just plunge into the Gulf of Thailand.

Life insurance policies do not pay on suicides. Hide the wreckage / black boxes = no evidence of suicide = beneficiaries paid. That is one of several reasons a suicidal pilot would keep flying and try to hide it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: kelebek
Posted 2014-03-16 15:03:06 and read 48818 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 119):
For the first 5 or 6 hours they wouldn't know anything was wrong, especially at night. And beyond that point when they wondered why they hadn't arrived in PEK, what could they do?

Don't they have Airshow in the seats?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rebr
Posted 2014-03-16 15:03:28 and read 48825 times.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 125):

If it fails to identify itself, yes even if it has an ElAl livery...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: slvrblt
Posted 2014-03-16 15:04:37 and read 48549 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 121):
how would you know if the plane is not already in Israel? How would we know if Israel is the party that was interested in the "Cargo" in the plane and not Iran? Speculations and theories will never end.

You're right; but the world we live in is, unfortunately, a place now where an event called 9/11 took place. So, get a grip on reality, and the very real possibility that a followup to that horrible event could be in the works. 9/11 rendered what would have been stupid paranoia and mindless speculation to something now not so stupid. What if the plane is in Israel? (where did that come from?) I think what the poster Freeman and I are talking about is another 9/11 style event. And the Israelis aren't going to be the perps.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: MillwallSean
Posted 2014-03-16 15:05:40 and read 48490 times.

While the political divide in Malaysia is bitter and very infected it seems bringing a plane filled with innocents down is a very drastic way to put it into the spotlight. I don't know. Most educated Malays in KL and definately in Penang where the captain comes from tend to side with the opposition while most Malays from kampongs and with government connections (the percentage of Malays working for government owned companies or government itself is very very high) support the government.

With the links KIAS provided it would be very interesting to know if any of the two had some form of recent medical history. the chances of that increases with age I guess but mental illness can affect anyone.

Everyone points to the captain but we know very little about the FO. All we know is that he trained to be a pilot at Langkawi an island the plane almost flew past if we are to believe the pings. Thats the area he would know best from his training (and he is pretty fresh out of training).
The captain was highly respected and a man with experience and skill. The FO wasn't seen in that way. His skill was contested and his promotion was seen as based on other things than merit. We are speaking of two different generation of pilots here, one from the old days where quality trumped race/connections and one from the new days where race/connections is everything.

So while medical issues might have contributed to this, the family of the two is likely to be able to fill the investigators in on that we might have a banal situation that escalates out of control as well.
Something like the two men has an alteration onboard due to extremely different political views (guesses), and with one of them incapacitated the other goes nuts when he realises that he wont fly ever again and since this is Malaysia he might even face the death penalty if the other man is dead. Or if the other man is incapacitated one of the persons flying probably both will never fly commercially again. if flying is your life you might make crazy things. Many similar scenarios can be thought of.

I dont know, but until we hear something that substantiate the fact the captain was in charge of the flight I think we should keep our senses open and see what comes. More things may point towards him but without medical info, without any fact to back things up more than the normal handover that took place I think its too early to determine he flew the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-16 15:05:48 and read 48660 times.

Journalists: could you please ask investigators about the 01:30+ call at the next daily briefing?

Remember the article in the StraitsTimes first reported on this site by loladaisydukes, Thread #5, Reply 121, posted Sat Mar 8 2014

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEPANG: A pilot said he established contact with Malaysia Airlines plane MH370 moments before it went missing.
The Boeing 777 captain, who asked to not be named, said he was flying 30 minutes ahead of the missing aircraft, and was asked to use his plane's emergency frequency to contact MH370 by Vietnamese air traffic control officials who wanted to establish its location.
The pilot, whose plane was bound for Narita, Japan, told Malaysia's New Sunday Times: "We managed to establish contact with MH370 just after 1.30am and asked them if they have transferred into Vietnamese airspace.
"The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie or Fariq, but I was sure it was the co-pilot," he told the newspaper.
MH370 was piloted by Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27.
"There were a lot of interference... static... but I heard mumbling from the other end," said the B777 captain. "That was the last time we heard from them, as we lost the connection."
Those on the same frequency at the time, including vessels on the waters below, would have heard the exchange, he said.
But he said he did not detect anything unusual during the contact. "If the plane was in trouble, we would have heard the pilot making the Mayday distress call. But I am sure that, like me, no one else up there heard it."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What I believe is significant is that the call was made not before MH370 went missing as the paper says, but AFTER it went AWOL and headed west.

The report is not from an anonymous tipster, but by the crew of Malaysia KUL->NRT on Mar 7th. Investigators should have been able to easily identify the pilot filing the report.

Can investigators confirm or deny?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 15:08:11 and read 48022 times.

Quoting Ryanair01 (Reply 109):
If the above is true, the combination of a captain under huge emotional stress, angry with his country and the seemingly high level of B777 operational knowledge needed to systematically turn the various systems off and vanish at the point of hand over between Malay and Vietnamese air traffic control, makes crew sabotage seem very possible. A politically motivated act highlighting Malaysia's social problems, by a Captain who doesn't feel like they have a whole lot to live for is becoming a tragically compelling line of inquiry.

It would also explain the Malaysian Government's alleged caginess about confirming details. Already the European Union has expressed concerns about the Anwar trial, suggesting it looks to be a political show trial. If the Malaysian Government admit that a Malaysian plane was lost due to something most people see as political detention, analysts believe Anwar would probably win any elections were he not in jail, it would be very hard for the government to survive.

I agree if the above information is indeed true, it makes for an avenue worthy of investigation. Still, what is the motive? How does hijacking and/or intentionally crashing a commercial airliner help his cause?

Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):
The aircraft with it's new livery and transponder will (sooner than later) be utilized in an attack that will rival a 9/11 or any other act of terrorism we've ever witnessed.

How do you expect this will work? Are they going to file a fraudulent flight plan? With whom? Come in with no transponder? How would they avoid primary radar? Fly NOE unnoticed? No scenario seems likely. Such an attempt against the USA or Israel would more than likely be intercepted, and shot down.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-16 15:09:44 and read 47953 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 106):
It is such an obvious thing to look for .... And not technically that hard.

The Malaysian investigators don't have a great history so far of looking for "obvious" things in a timely manner - or at least of acknowledging them in public. (Which is, for this little sub-thread, the part we'd be concerned about.) They only acknowledged the SATCOM pings and even the *radar* returns after they were forced to by PR leaks. And only after several days.

We're now only a couple of days past the point when they realized the plane last checked in along one of these two satellite signal arcs. Given the history of this investigation up to this point, I don't expect they'd acknowledge checking on cell phone registrations for at least another day or two, and only then if their hand is forced. And in this case, we're talking about getting that data from multiple different countries, so it may even be longer than that.

The thing is, while it would blow the investigation wide open if they *did* find passenger cell phone registrations in, say, Pakistan, I'm not sure it really tells them anything if they *don't* see that. It's the old "you can't prove a negative" thing. I'm not sure about the culture in Malaysia or China but on the Asian flights I have been on, people really do turn their cell phones off. And those few that were on may not have registered for the reasons you listed. Even under the best circumstances (on the ground), an airplane isn't the greatest environment for cellular signals to penetrate. Lots of metal, wiring and other stuff to interfere.

So even if they come out and say "well, we checked for cell phone signals everywhere in these corridors and found none", that doesn't mean the plane didn't fly there, or that everyone was already dead. Though it may at least suggest that the passengers didn't know anything was wrong, since you'd expect at least a few phones to register somewhere if there were hundreds turned on.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-16 15:10:42 and read 47663 times.

Quoting GipperPDX (Reply 128):
Life insurance policies do not pay on suicides.

Not entirely correct. It depends on local law. Some countries allow it, others don´t. I know the US doesn´t but Mexico does. I don´t know about Malaysia. However, the point is moot in regards to life insurance as life insurance for pilots is a whole other type of insurance and has its own special clauses, price, and provisions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 15:11:16 and read 47676 times.

Still no. Suicide is too simple explanation in front of very complex arrangements and circumstances. Only slight stress was political leader of the party trial, but then if you're angry at that, you would make a statement to opponent ruling party, not just die secretely in remote location in the airplane with other people. I think he loved flying and wouldn't want to destroy machine as well. Also family, kids...not that type. The story has a different smell to me, tbh.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-16 15:11:42 and read 47657 times.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 127):
Everyone who says suicide doesn't make sense is using illogical reasoning to dismiss it.

People want to believe in fairies (and massive criminal or government conspiracies). Suicide in a way that makes the Malaysia government look inept is quite the most logical and simplest explanation at this point, requiring no other unprecedented cover-ups or exceptionally tricky plans. I don't really understand how someone promoting the "heist" scenario or the "repurposing the plane" scenario can not add "... if it is proved that pilot suicide is not what happened" to the end of every post.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 15:13:22 and read 47342 times.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 125):
Even if it had an ELAL livery

Air traffic is not identified by livery.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 126):
Did you actually read the articles you linked? I suppose you didn´t because I see nothing there that says suicide can´t be a rational process. And just so you know, not all mental illnesses mean people cannot be rational. Since I don´t want to turn this into a suicide debate, I´ll refrain from posting further about this issue in THIS thread, but it´s a good idea to read what you are going to post as a source to make a point.

Of course I read them, that's why I posted them to you. I never said "suicide can't be rational" - I posted articles showing that in the vast majority of cases, suicide is a product of mental illness. Here is your quote:

Quoting AR385 (Reply 99):
Suicide is a very rational decision and the thought process leading to it is too.

...which sounds like a blanket statement saying that suicide is always a rational decision. Perhaps I misunderstood your intention.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-16 15:13:30 and read 47383 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 137):
Suicide is too simple explanation

And that is the problem. Some of you don't want a simple explanation because it isn't fun/scary/interesting enough. You want an 8 part HBO special with as twist.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 15:14:45 and read 47109 times.

Quoting kelebek (Reply 129):
Don't they have Airshow in the seats?

IFE easily disabled from cockpit, along with satphones (if equipped).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 15:15:56 and read 47089 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 140):

Ok, so then you need to explain his reasons. Why? Just because? As simple as that?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: EVAAIRBR076
Posted 2014-03-16 15:16:24 and read 46987 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 133):

did u mean this?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...e-communications-disabled-malaysia

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 15:16:44 and read 46979 times.

Not only does the "plane as weapon" theory seem near-impossible to pull off, it also doesn't explain the myriad ways of acquiring aircraft that would be much easier and low profile that this.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: DDR
Posted 2014-03-16 15:19:16 and read 46768 times.

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 124):
Now there is a new theory! It was probably those US Boys on board! Just like 9/11 and all we learnt on/in the ´Loose Change' movies how capable they are and we are all just dumb sheep!
Right, on then, I´d better grab another Beer before the evil US operatives fullfill their plans........(forgive the inrony under these sad circumstanes, but... yes, well.....!!)
But hang on, I forgot the previous thread, of course this tripple is now at Diego Garcia!

Can we get back to the known & aviation related known Facts now plse?

A voice of reason! Danke Cougar15. As sad as it is, these poor people are in all probability dead, and have been dead for several days. As a crew member myself (cabin), I hate to see all the pilot suicide comments as well. Please do not judge these two guys without evidence. I sure do not recall everyone immediately blaming the AF A330 pilots of suicide. Have some respect for these guys.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: HNL
Posted 2014-03-16 15:19:35 and read 46692 times.

Quoting GipperPDX (Reply 128):

Life insurance policies do not pay on suicides.

Yes they do! All the life insurance policies in my family include a 1 year suicide "waiting period" after which it's not a restriction.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cabochris
Posted 2014-03-16 15:21:21 and read 46278 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 140):

Murder is less simple

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-16 15:21:30 and read 46328 times.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 131):
You're right; but the world we live in is, unfortunately, a place now where an event called 9/11 took place. So, get a grip on reality, and the very real possibility that a followup to that horrible event could be in the works. 9/11 rendered what would have been stupid paranoia and mindless speculation to something now not so stupid. What if the plane is in Israel? (where did that come from?) I think what the poster Freeman and I are talking about is another 9/11 style event. And the Israelis aren't going to be the perps.

what I meant is they knew something was up and intercepted it or the cargo or the people in it and ferried it to Israel with their know how so another 9/11 wld not happen

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2014-03-16 15:21:34 and read 46279 times.

Quoting HNL (Reply 147):
Quoting GipperPDX (Reply 128):

Life insurance policies do not pay on suicides.

Yes they do!

Most don't.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-16 15:23:25 and read 46059 times.

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 144):
did u mean this?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...e-communications-disabled-malaysia

No. Your new article refers to the last message with Malaysia ATC.
The one I am referring to is a call between two Malaysia 777s, maybe 10min after MH370 has diverted from its planned route.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TristarSteve
Posted 2014-03-16 15:23:39 and read 46325 times.

Quoting KIAS (Reply 83):
To fully disable ACARS requires a trip to the E/E bay.

Must ask you out of curiosity, but what would you do in the EE bay to disable ACARS? Were you proposing to pull the COM modules out of the AIMS cabinets? or what. You would really have to know what you were doing, pull out the wrong one and the screens go blank!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ThunderboltDrgn
Posted 2014-03-16 15:24:28 and read 46076 times.

Quoting GipperPDX (Reply 128):
Life insurance policies do not pay on suicides. Hide the wreckage
/ black boxes = no evidence of suicide = beneficiaries paid. That is one of several reasons a
suicidal pilot would keep flying and try to hide it.

But wouldn't the whole thing with disabled transponders,possibly avoiding radars
and etc, be very suspicious for an insurance company?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-16 15:24:51 and read 46205 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 150):
Most don't.

They will pay if the aircraft lies somewhere on bottom of Indian Ocean & won't be found any time soon, so there would be no proof about any single person causing the accident.

[Edited 2014-03-16 15:26:17]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: fiscal
Posted 2014-03-16 15:25:59 and read 46149 times.

First a question - Can cabin crew make calls direct to MH Operations? or can it only be done via the cockpit?

Next Murder/Suicide theories. Only a small percentage of murder suicides do not involve a close relative, or romantic connection. Of those left, most seem to want to go out in a blaze of glory, but not on this occasion. Also most suicides are planned/mulled over for a period of time, so there is usually a "history" of noticeable behavioral change, but quite often only picked up in retrospect.

Also it is reported that both pilots did not ask for each other to be assigned to this flight. That would tend to indicate that only one would be involved and would need to disable/lock out the other to perform the deeds.

Just thinking...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 15:29:04 and read 45600 times.

Quoting DDR (Reply 146):
Please do not judge these two guys without evidence.

Agree, we need to have a bit of heart before claiming specific people are to blame for 240 souls dead. There should be strong reasons for all to happen in the way it happened, and I doubt one man insanity is the answer.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-16 15:34:34 and read 44848 times.

Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):

Sorry but that story makes absolutely no sense if you think about it for more than 30 seconds.

If you have government backing why on earth would you want to hijack a 777 to do such a thing, when you can just buy some old 747 wreck, paint it in Iran Air force 747 livery & do the whole thing with it?

Easier, cheaper & way more believable.

[Edited 2014-03-16 15:35:55]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: uta999
Posted 2014-03-16 15:34:40 and read 44772 times.

I asked this in a previous thread.

How much further south could it fly on a single engine; at a lower speed or altitude? Would it increase the range significantly? A flight sim would be useful for this.

I suspect it may have been able to reach Antactica and landed on the ice during daylight. If the wings were covered in snow it would be pretty hard to find.

The question is why?

[Edited 2014-03-16 15:36:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: slowroll
Posted 2014-03-16 15:34:57 and read 44821 times.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 116):
I alluded to something similar to this scenario back in part 14, reply 293. I hope to god this guy and me are both wrong, I hope these poor folks have found a final resting place somewhere.
But it makes a chilling amount of sense.

If this were the case it would take A LOT of people and money involved. Why not just buy cheap used wide bodies, setup a phony airline while you are doing it, and then do your thing. No reason to do this high risk venture with low odds of success.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: btblue
Posted 2014-03-16 15:36:52 and read 44726 times.

What we know:

Plane is missing.

Phones rang (according to relatives)

The plane has flown north west

The plane has flown south west

Pings received.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: StuckInCA
Posted 2014-03-16 15:36:59 and read 44521 times.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 160):
I asked this in a previous thread.

How much further south could it fly on a single engine; at a lower speed or altitude? Would it increase the range significantly?

Someone answered you before too. Less range at lower altitude. Less range with one engine.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ComeAndGo
Posted 2014-03-16 15:38:13 and read 44317 times.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 160):
How much further south could it fly on a single engine; at a lower speed or altitude? Would it increase the range significantly?

How about, it already had fuel on board from a previous flight. Wasn't the previous flight a repositioning flight?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KELPkid
Posted 2014-03-16 15:39:36 and read 44321 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 119):
For the first 5 or 6 hours they wouldn't know anything was wrong, especially at night. And beyond that point when they wondered why they hadn't arrived in PEK, what could they do?

Doesn't MH have seatback moving maps (like most other Asian airlines?). If so, I'd venture that quite a few passengers knew something was way way wrong...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TUNisia
Posted 2014-03-16 15:40:57 and read 44366 times.

It comes as FBI investigators say the disappearance of MH370 may have been ‘an act of piracy’ and the possibility that hundreds of passengers are being held at an unknown location has not been ruled out.

Officials revealed today that it is possible the aircraft could have landed and transmitted a satellite signal from the ground.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-final-time-off.html#ixzz2wAU4iuA2
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: affirmative
Posted 2014-03-16 15:41:32 and read 44024 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 150):

Quoting HNL (Reply 147):
Quoting GipperPDX (Reply 128):

Life insurance policies do not pay on suicides.

Yes they do!

Most don't.

But how would you prove who committed suicide and who got murdered in this case?

----------------

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 132):

If this was a deliberate act to somehow put the eye on Malaysia and it's eventual deficiencies maybe it will work. I guess we can't tell yet.

Your theory of the two being from two extremely different backgrounds with most likely very different views on most things may be a hot potato. However, one of the first rules we get taught in CRM is never to take ideologies or political/religious views into a cockpit environment. Professionalism dictates that you do your job and then you can sort out your differences.

----------------

I'm getting fed up with people wasting time trying to get this into another terrorist plot. Sure, if you bought in to the US government propaganda telling you that you are the target because you're the biggest, best and baddest maybe you should start looking into things like GDP and National debt.. If or when the Chinese starts asking for their money back you will know, and there's a possibility that will happen pretty soon.

(Sorry for this OT, I just had to ventilate)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ComeAndGo
Posted 2014-03-16 15:42:21 and read 43721 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 159):
Easier, cheaper & way more believable.

The question is: is this a one man show or is there a more elaborate organization involved.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: baldwin471
Posted 2014-03-16 15:43:49 and read 43685 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 165):


The electronics for IFE could've easily been switched off and customers informed it was a technical problem - thus no seat back moving map. I've actually been on a flight where the seat back IFE was off for the 7+ hour duration due to some problem or another.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-16 15:44:40 and read 43466 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 112):
It's hard for me to say, we came up with a range estimate of 2970 miles, but we really don't know. It could be more, but it is likely that it is not more than 15 or 20% more...(300 - 600 miles). So we can be pretty confident that it couldn't go much longer, given the time and range constraints that we have (6 hrs, 2970 mi, +/-)

The problem is that relies on flying a long time in a dumb direction, after having succeeded in a very sophisticated trama to hijack a 777 with none of the crew or passengers be able to warn of the situation in the post 9/11 era, to finally die there because of running out of fuel.

As surreal the situation is, if it was a hijacking (and I think it was), that brilliance/dumbness "duality" about the plan executors is surreal within surreality

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 15:45:08 and read 43559 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 165):
Doesn't MH have seatback moving maps (like most other Asian airlines?). If so, I'd venture that quite a few passengers knew something was way way wrong...

For the millionth time, the IFE system including the map is easily disabled from the cockpit, and you wouldn't need much of an excuse. "Sorry folks, it's not working".

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: affirmative
Posted 2014-03-16 15:46:07 and read 43260 times.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 160):

I asked this in a previous thread.

How much further south could it fly on a single engine; at a lower speed or altitude? Would it increase the range significantly? A flight sim would be useful for this.

And you were answered.. Flying on one engine does not save fuel. The drag from the engine not running plus the drag from having to use rudder and ailerons to compensate will increase drag quite a bit as well as the fact that the engine will have to be working harder and thus outside of its optimal operating range will significantly decrease range.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: slowroll
Posted 2014-03-16 15:46:25 and read 43168 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 165):
Doesn't MH have seatback moving maps (like most other Asian airlines?). If so, I'd venture that quite a few passengers knew something was way way wrong...

I would assume they could be disabled, if desired.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 168):
Quoting pvjin (Reply 159):
Easier, cheaper & way more believable.

The question is: is this a one man show or is there a more elaborate organization involved.

Which I think the point was it's more likely a one man show, given that there would be easier ways for an elaborate organization.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 15:47:07 and read 43172 times.

Quoting TristarSteve (Reply 152):
Must ask you out of curiosity, but what would you do in the EE bay to disable ACARS?

Open the ACARS CMU AC circuit breaker or disconnect CMU power supply from 115v AC.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 15:47:16 and read 43238 times.

Do F/A have a chance to declare emergency from the deck to the ground?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cabochris
Posted 2014-03-16 15:47:19 and read 43514 times.

The Chinese must be a little nervous that the northern arc potentiality and likely puts the machine somewhere on the ground (if landed), very close to Uyghur region... and are those people ever oppressed and leaning on the extremes.

I'm sure the world's powers and their satellites are scouring any country with a "stan" on the end.

Where are you 28420

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 15:48:28 and read 43528 times.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 165):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 119):
For the first 5 or 6 hours they wouldn't know anything was wrong, especially at night. And beyond that point when they wondered why they hadn't arrived in PEK, what could they do?

Doesn't MH have seatback moving maps (like most other Asian airlines?). If so, I'd venture that quite a few passengers knew something was way way wrong...

If it was a suicide mission involving a pilot (more likely than cabin crew), they would have almost certainly switched that off, like other electronics (transponders etc.)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ChaosTheory
Posted 2014-03-16 15:53:53 and read 42930 times.

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 103):
According to the Independent, 3000miles (2600nm) was the aircrafts maximum range at FL300.
I think this is the first time I have seen such a specific range specification.

How much further could they have reached at FL350/400?

Assuming they had 40t at the point of diversion, FL350 would give them 2900nm and FL400 would take them to 3100nm at .84M (GE-90 engines).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-16 15:55:53 and read 42546 times.

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 166):
Officials revealed today that it is possible the aircraft could have landed and transmitted a satellite signal from the ground.

That's maybe the only thing they should have kept until at least they could go over the place.

Some questions that arise:

- How much time do those signal take to confirm the location?
- When did they know it could be from the ground?
- Has the aircraft transmitted anything after that?
- And especially...where did supposedly land?. (Not that I want to warn any terrorist, but I think the actual warn is the proper new)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: ThunderboltDrgn
Posted 2014-03-16 15:56:07 and read 42227 times.

Quoting ChaosTheory (Reply 178):
Assuming they had 40t at the point of diversion, FL350
would give them 2900nm and FL400 would take them to 3100nm at .84M (GE-90 engines).

Ok thanks.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-16 16:00:04 and read 41785 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 143):
Why? Just because? As simple as that?

You can ask the same question of so many crimes where the person is found insane. Some may argue anything involving murder requires some degree of insanity. If he hid the depths of a passionate hatred of the ruling party, I can imagine him having internal justifications twisted as they may be. For all we know he left a very clear message, that he wanted made public, but the government has decided to sit on. Maybe he wanted the plane to be shot down and when that didn't happen he ran out of options.
Why do monks self-immolate in front of crowds? while they don't take anyone with them, they certainly inflict horrors on innocent people that they can never forget.

There are plenty of examples of what many now think he did. It doesn't require belief in aliens, government level conspiracies or any magical thinking. Some people think it is inconceivable that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone, and look for patterns in randomness to this day. I guess it is human nature to under-weight madness and singular acts even if it means believing ludicrously complicated conspiracies instead.

[Edited 2014-03-16 16:03:11]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: danvs
Posted 2014-03-16 16:00:37 and read 41909 times.

Does anyone know if China, India, Turkmenistan and other countries along the "northwest track" have been asked to review radar data for primary returns (unidentified plane)?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-16 16:03:10 and read 42069 times.

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 166):
Officials revealed today that it is possible the aircraft could have landed and transmitted a satellite signal from the ground.

The Rolls Royce "end of flight" engine report after about 4 hours was probably right anyway.
Then it was sort of denied.
Then we learn the flight may have flown for 4 hours.
Then later it might have been 7 hours.
There was probably a gap in satcom handshakes after 4 hours so that they stopped looking. Until they found one much later after avionics were somehow powered up again on the ground.

It would be nice if investigators could be kind enough to share more of their satcom graphs, say at 4 hrs, with an error estimate, assuming they truly compute those graphs from raw data received by only one satellite (Inmarsat-3 F1 RTD delay?, phased array levels?, ...).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 16:03:16 and read 41811 times.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 179):
That's maybe the only thing they should have kept until at least they could go over the place.

Some questions that arise:

- How much time do those signal take to confirm the location?
- When did they know it could be from the ground?
- Has the aircraft transmitted anything after that?
- And especially...where did supposedly land?. (Not that I want to warn any terrorist, but I think the actual warn is the proper new)

All they confirmed was that theoretically if the aircraft was powered up on the ground, that the SATCOM would continue pinging the satellite. That's all they said. We already all knew that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: slowroll
Posted 2014-03-16 16:04:33 and read 41549 times.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 179):
That's maybe the only thing they should have kept until at least they could go over the place.

Some questions that arise:

- How much time do those signal take to confirm the location?
- When did they know it could be from the ground?

The ground speculation is probably based on the fact that the prior ping was at or near the same distance.

[Edited 2014-03-16 16:05:35]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-16 16:06:06 and read 41387 times.

Quoting slowroll (Reply 185):
The ground probably is based on the fact that the prior ping was at or near the same distance.

In a hold pattern over deep water. Waiting for the fuel to run out.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TUNisia
Posted 2014-03-16 16:08:17 and read 41277 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 183):
The Rolls Royce "end of flight" engine report after about 4 hours was probably right anyway.
Then it was sort of denied.
Then we learn the flight may have flown for 4 hours.
Then later it might have been 7 hours.
There was probably a gap in satcom handshakes after 4 hours so that they stopped looking. Until they found one much later after avionics were somehow powered up again on the ground.

It would be nice if investigators could be kind enough to share more of their satcom graphs, say at 4 hrs, with an error estimate, assuming they truly compute those graphs from raw data received by only one satellite (Inmarsat-3 F1 RTD delay?, phased array levels?, ...).

I'm thinking investigators don't want to say that is true, because it might hamper them finding the place. I've felt all along the plane has landed somewhere. It lends credence to the fact that some of the cell phone could be dialed and just rang with no answer. Also, the Rolls Royce report of a successful end of flight transmission.

CNN video of reporter saying that the families were told there's a possibility the plane landed somewhere.

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/vi...n-airlines-families-day-9.cnn.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-16 16:13:29 and read 40547 times.

Quoting cabochris (Reply 176):
I'm sure the world's powers and their satellites are scouring any country with a "stan" on the end.

If we follow the hypothesis for a moment that the plane landed safely because of its cargo (whatever that was), then the 777 would be expendable and probably broken up to become "lost".

If that is so, then my question is this: is there any kind of satellite-based remote sensing (probably military) that could still identify THIS particular mass of metal from any other mass of metal in a shed or even buried?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 16:15:40 and read 40183 times.

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 187):

I'm thinking investigators don't want to say that is true, because it might hamper them finding the place. I've felt all along the plane has landed somewhere. It lends credence to the fact that some of the cell phone could be dialed and just rang with no answer. Also, the Rolls Royce report of a successful end of flight transmission.

I thought the cell phone ringing as being meaningful was debunked a long time ago.

And what's the source for the successful end of flight transmission? Was that confirmed or just a leak that's been promulgated without basis?

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 187):

CNN video of reporter saying that the families were told there's a possibility the plane landed somewhere.

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/vi...n-airlines-families-day-9.cnn.html

Is the alleged end-of-flight transmission said to occur at the same time as the last satellite ping?

More questions than answers as usual.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-16 16:16:10 and read 39880 times.

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 187):

if the phones rang, authorities would have been able to locate the aircraft by now IMO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 16:17:57 and read 39911 times.

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 154):
But wouldn't the whole thing with disabled transponders,possibly avoiding radars
and etc, be very suspicious for an insurance company?

Suspicion is not proof.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 164):
How about, it already had fuel on board from a previous flight. Wasn't the previous flight a repositioning flight?

That would have been included in the fuel on board - they don't start filling assuming it is empty. They add what is needed for the flight.

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 166):
Officials revealed today that it is possible the aircraft could have landed and transmitted a satellite signal from the ground.

Sorry - this is useless information - probably some comment by some nameless official taken out of context - but totally useless.

- We don't know where it is - so of course it could have landed.
- The SATCOM pings - which was the last signal - would come from the a/c in flight, or a powered up a/c on the ground.

We did not need the FBI to tell us this - anybody who has been following this knows it.

What would be useful is for the FBI to reveal any real data saying the ship has landed, or crashed, or even a hint to where it is that is less that 1000's of square miles.

Recommended reading..

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):

Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: EA CO AS
Posted 2014-03-16 16:18:11 and read 39669 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 155):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 150):
Most don't.


They will pay if the aircraft lies somewhere on bottom of Indian Ocean & won't be found any time soon, so there would be no proof about any single person causing the accident.

My point was that in a definitive case of suicide, most policies won't pay. The circumstances around this incident make it impossible to say with certainty that it was suicide by either member of the flight crew specifically, so therefore this is unique and yes, a policy will likely pay out here.

Now if there's a note, or if there are clues that point to this being part of a planned act by one specific person, then it's likely there'd be a fight by the insurer about paying out.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 159):
If you have government backing why on earth would you want to hijack a 777 to do such a thing, when you can just buy some old 747 wreck, paint it in Iran Air force 747 livery & do the whole thing with it?

Easier, cheaper & way more believable.

Two words; plausible deniability. The government of (insert nation here) buying an old B747 and it later ends up on a suicide mission against (insert target here) sends up far more red flags about a state-sponsored act than a B777 just up and vanishing, then turning up as a weapon later.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: keegd76
Posted 2014-03-16 16:22:02 and read 39506 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 189):
I thought the cell phone ringing as being meaningful was debunked a long time ago.

It was.

Repeatedly.

  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 16:22:35 and read 39314 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 181):

He made a statement in his facebok after trial. He had a statement in his t-shirt about democracy being dead. He even made a statement about his FS rig on Youtube. Why this time he would go without anything stated? See, you give example of self-immolation, but they do it not in the forests or mountains, they deliver the message. In this case somebody wanted the plane just to vanish completely and that is opposite to making any statements...We need a note from him that it was him to do it, or evidence he was at controls all those 7h. Until then theory it was somebody else is at least equal.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 16:24:45 and read 38933 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 192):
My point was that in a definitive case of suicide, most policies won't pay. The circumstances around this incident make it impossible to say with certainty that it was suicide by either member of the flight crew specifically, so therefore this is unique and yes, a policy will likely pay out here.

Now if there's a note, or if there are clues that point to this being part of a planned act by one specific person, then it's likely there'd be a fight by the insurer about paying out.

Some (many? most?) cultures cast suicide in a very negative and shameful light. I think the specter of shame (or potential blame and subsequent vengeance against close relatives) would be a far more powerful motivator for someone to cover or confuse their tracks than finances or insurance.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 192):
Two words; plausible deniability. The government of (insert nation here) buying an old B747 and it later ends up on a suicide mission against (insert target here) sends up far more red flags about a state-sponsored act than a B777 just up and vanishing, then turning up as a weapon later.

Right, because nobody would possibly notice a missing 777?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: greaser
Posted 2014-03-16 16:27:29 and read 38917 times.

Interesting NY Times piece that really is just damning of the Malaysian Gov't:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/wo...task-of-finding-flight-370.html?hp

Fair Use:

"A British Royal Air Force base in the colonial era, the Malaysian air force base at Butterworth sits on the mainland across from the island of Penang at the northern reaches of the Strait of Malacca. There, in the early morning hours of March 8, the four-person crew watching for intrusions into the country’s airspace either did not notice or failed to report a blip on their defensive radar and air traffic radar that was moving steadily across the country from east to west, heading right toward them, said the person with knowledge of the matter."

"Neither that team nor the crews at two other radar installations at Kota Bharu, closer to where the airliner last had contact with the ground, designated the blip as an unknown intruder warranting attention, the person said. The aircraft proceeded to fly across the country and out to sea without anyone on watch telling a superior and alerting the national defense command near Kuala Lumpur, even though the radar contact’s flight path did not correspond to any filed flight plan.

As a result, combat aircraft never scrambled to investigate. The plane, identified at the time by Mr. Najib as Flight 370, passed directly over Penang, a largely urban state with more than 1.6 million people, then turned and headed out over the Strait of Malacca."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 16:30:29 and read 38211 times.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 127):
The data we have, which is scarce, makes pilot suicide the most plausible scenario.

If your hypothesis is true, then this is the most planned pilot suicide in history.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-16 16:30:54 and read 38194 times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 192):
Two words; plausible deniability. The government of (insert nation here) buying an old B747 and it later ends up on a suicide mission against (insert target here) sends up far more red flags about a state-sponsored act than a B777 just up and vanishing, then turning up as a weapon later.

Obviously they wouldn't let the public to know the government was behind the airplane. They could just set up some shady cargo company in some poor developing country & then make that company to be the official buyer of the aircraft.

How does an airliner disappearing and turning up as a weapon raise not red flags? That's something that has never happened & would require serious government co-operation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 16:32:22 and read 38340 times.

Warning to mods..... I'm loosin' it - need to step away.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 179):
Some questions that arise:
- How much time do those signal take to confirm the location?
- When did they know it could be from the ground?
- Has the aircraft transmitted anything after that?
- And especially...where did supposedly land?. (Not that I want to warn any terrorist, but I think the actual warn is the proper new)

In all likelihood the only satellite signal was the SATCOM pings. We already know that they were received and we know that if the plane landed and was powered up - the SATCOM pings could continue.
So this speculation that the last SATCOM ping was sent on the land has no more credance than saying it was send while in flight.

No location information is provided by those signals.

Quoting slowroll (Reply 185):
The ground speculation is probably based on the fact that the prior ping was at or near the same distance.

But - flying along a path with roughly constant distance from the satellite, or turning around and flying 100 miles the other way, or circling in place would all look the same to the satellite.

There are thousands of miles that would fit that criterion. I don't think it is reasonable to make any determination that the plane is on the ground or not..

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 187):
I'm thinking investigators don't want to say that is true, because it might hamper them finding the place. I've felt all along the plane has landed somewhere. It lends credence to the fact that some of the cell phone could be dialed and just rang with no answer. Also, the Rolls Royce report of a successful end of flight transmission.

Where did you seen any report of a end of flight EH transmission? That would be big news.
If any cell phone had connected to a tower - at the end of a flight - we would know where the plane is.

Quoting TUNisia (Reply 187):
CNN video of reporter saying that the families were told there's a possibility the plane landed somewhere.

Non-information. We all know this and have.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 189):
And what's the source for the successful end of flight transmission? Was that confirmed or just a leak that's been promulgated without basis?

  
As I said....

TUNisia - I see this is your first post in this thread - so you may not have seen it. You may find the sanity check at post 4 (or 5) of this string answers a lot your questions. It is a compilation of a lot of information and answers many questions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-16 16:34:44 and read 37830 times.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 197):
If your hypothesis is true, then this is the most planned pilot suicide in history.

Not my hypothesis, just trying to marry the leaks received by Flying with Fish with the other data that is emerging (though much more slowly, it seems).

But it is an intriguing question - could military satellite remote sensing be used to locate and identify a particular broken up 777?

EDITED: Sorry, I responded to the wrong quoted hypothesis. But my question remains...

[Edited 2014-03-16 16:36:15]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-16 16:41:06 and read 37087 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 194):
Why this time he would go without anything stated?

Because Anwar was standing for election, despite the vote rigging and setbacks, he was still running, still talking, still on the rise, until the prosecutor appealed the reversal of the verdict, and now? right before the flight? he is stuffed.

The pieces of the psychological puzzle are pretty clear. He invested a lot in his political ideals, and they got dashed by (in his mind) corrupt ruling leaders and a corrupt judiciary. When the rule of law can be subverted by those in power it can be profoundly depressing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-16 16:42:14 and read 37325 times.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

Stall way before that.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 32):

Quoting pvjin (Reply 26):
Maybe a Concorde could do it

60k ceiling =(

60k service ceiling, meaning it could go higher. If memory serves the Concorde service ceiling was predicated on emergency descent times, not aerodynamics.

Anyway that's neither here nor there.  
Quoting rcair1 (Reply 34):

Regarding my "Sanity Checks"

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu

It is my SINCERE HOPE that people posting will take the time to read these. They are a lot of work to put together and the goal is to streamline the conversation by answering questions/providing background information.

I know they are long - I'm as terse as I can be.

By doing this - perhaps we can stop the repeated questions about stuff over and over again - and focus the discussions on new information - give the mods a break.

-rcair1

I, for one, am a big fan of your sanity checks. Please keep up the good work!

Quoting TheWipp (Reply 50):
What I didn't get about that oil rig worker, I'm not familiar with oil rigs, but why was it only one guy? Aren't there a few people on an oil rig? Was he all alone? Wouldn't he call someone when seeing something like this?
That sounds really weird to me.

Since that whole thing was debunked, it is a moot point. Do we even know this guy exists?

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 51):

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 39):
No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC.

I think a 777 pilot on a 777 could handle this quite easily. I believe you can just enter a series of waypoints (GPS locations) in the flight management computer and the ship will pretty much fly itself there.
Perhaps one of the commercial pilots can comment.

Correct. You enter waypoints and set the autopilot to LNAV. The autopilot will then follow the waypoints.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 82):
Quoting edmountain (Reply 38):
For example, suppose there were 200 cell phones on board and 10 of them were left on for whatever reason.

And suppose at least 5 of those were smartphones equipped with GPS chips; couldn't those have been used as a potential source of a signal to trace the last-known location of the aircraft? It's not like a cellular signal would be needed to get a GPS fix.

GPS does not help any since it doesn't send any information from GPS devices. Satellites don't know where GPS devices are.

Quoting aseem (Reply 120):
To all those suicide theorists. If the Captain were to commit suicide, why does he have go off the radar. He does not even have to go to full cruising height. He can just plunge into the Gulf of Thailand.

To ensure the plane is very hard to find?

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 133):

Journalists: could you please ask investigators about the 01:30+ call at the next daily briefing?

Remember the article in the StraitsTimes first reported on this site by loladaisydukes, Thread #5, Reply 121, posted Sat Mar 8 2014

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEPANG: A pilot said he established contact with Malaysia Airlines plane MH370 moments before it went missing.
The Boeing 777 captain, who asked to not be named, said he was flying 30 minutes ahead of the missing aircraft, and was asked to use his plane's emergency frequency to contact MH370 by Vietnamese air traffic control officials who wanted to establish its location.
The pilot, whose plane was bound for Narita, Japan, told Malaysia's New Sunday Times: "We managed to establish contact with MH370 just after 1.30am and asked them if they have transferred into Vietnamese airspace.
"The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie or Fariq, but I was sure it was the co-pilot," he told the newspaper.
MH370 was piloted by Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27.
"There were a lot of interference... static... but I heard mumbling from the other end," said the B777 captain. "That was the last time we heard from them, as we lost the connection."
Those on the same frequency at the time, including vessels on the waters below, would have heard the exchange, he said.
But he said he did not detect anything unusual during the contact. "If the plane was in trouble, we would have heard the pilot making the Mayday distress call. But I am sure that, like me, no one else up there heard it."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What I believe is significant is that the call was made not before MH370 went missing as the paper says, but AFTER it went AWOL and headed west.

The report is not from an anonymous tipster, but by the crew of Malaysia KUL->NRT on Mar 7th. Investigators should have been able to easily identify the pilot filing the report.

Can investigators confirm or deny?

This was debunked days ago.

Quoting btblue (Reply 162):
What we know:

Plane is missing.

Phones rang (according to relatives)

The plane has flown north west

The plane has flown south west

Pings received.

Those relatives are almost certainly wrong. Just because you hear a ring doesn't mean a cell phone is ringing. As mentioned if the phones could be reached even to ring, tracing them would be trivial.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 175):
Do F/A have a chance to declare emergency from the deck to the ground?

Through a satellite phone if the plane is so equipped. This could be disabled by the pilots though I think.

Quoting danvs (Reply 182):
Does anyone know if China, India, Turkmenistan and other countries along the "northwest track" have been asked to review radar data for primary returns (unidentified plane)?

I'm sure they have and are reviewing this data.


From previous thread.

cat3appr50: Hard to believe that ATC red flags apparently weren’t raised (and notice to “authorities” initiated) when the expected handoff from Malaysia Center to Vietnam Center didn’t occur, with secondary radar painting MH 370 up to that point, the normal good bye message to Malaysia Center, then no comms. to Vietnam Center initiated, loss of secondary radar (transponder), etc.?

Answer: Planes "disappear" all the time for a variety of reasons, though they are typically "found" very soon. ATC/radar/comms just aren't that perfect. With no other indications of anything, it takes a while before alerts are raised since the assumption is that the flight is proceeding as planned.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 16:45:18 and read 36846 times.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 200):
But it is an intriguing question - could military satellite remote sensing be used to locate and identify a particular broken up 777?

There are a lot of space-based assets with classified capabilities in the sky.

But realistically? No. There is no "easy button" to press.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-16 16:48:20 and read 36349 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 203):
There are a lot of space-based assets with classified capabilities in the sky.

But realistically? No. There is no "easy button" to press.

That is what I suspected would be the case.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 16:50:45 and read 36247 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 201):
The pieces of the psychological puzzle are pretty clear. He invested a lot in his political ideals, and they got dashed by (in his mind) corrupt ruling leaders and a corrupt judiciary. When the rule of law can be subverted by those in power it can be profoundly depressing.

There are a lot of people in the US who could claim the same - on both sides of the aisle. Some have probably killed themselves - if they were already depressed or mentally unstable and this was the act that pushed them over.

So - in this case you are postulating a professional who decided he would kill himself because of corrupt politics. His chosen method was to somehow take over an aircraft - fly it for some 8 hrs into the night and murder 230 people with him.

With all due respect - I think a suicidal pilot is more likely to just 'put it down' hard and fast.
In addition, someone wanting to make a political point will make a point, not do it silently.

Until we see a lot more motive, I'm not persuaded.

At this point - pilot suicide is just one more unsupported hypothesis.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 16:57:08 and read 35599 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 202):
I, for one, am a big fan of your sanity checks. Please keep up the good work!

Thanks.

Unfortunately - tomorrow is Monday and work bekons. I'm not sure how much time I can devote to these threads then and before I can update the sanity check - I have to read everything...

Still - frankly - right now there is not much to add to them. Lots of rumors/hypothesis, but not much data. Most of the additions I've been making are to correct (or debunk) unconfirmed statements.
-bob

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 16:58:48 and read 35491 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 198):
How does an airliner disappearing and turning up as a weapon raise not red flags? That's something that has never happened & would require serious government co-operation.

It is raising red flags and US authorities have already said this to the media.

This is the most technically planned hijacking that I can remember and the authorities know this and there are many target nations: India, Russia, China, US, Europe and Israel to begin with. It is in their best interest to find this plane and be at the highest alert specially at night.

My inclination is that the main culprit is the captain with some help from hijackers in the cabin. This airplane disappeared in the dark and landed in the dark. Their only screw up was that the SATCOM system was not totally shut down as expected. The consequential deduction of this factor is that the plane was most certainly hijacked, flown like a pro, and flew for over 7 hours at stable altitudes. This knowledge of new information plays into and affect the grand master plan of the hijackers.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cialome
Posted 2014-03-16 16:58:48 and read 35308 times.

Can someone outline how much room is in the avionics bay, which I understand is under the pilots. This was accessed in order to disable one or two of the technologies near the beginning of the flight.

I am asking because there has been an assumption it is one of the pilots. But my question is this - can a person "hide" in there? Do pilots or anyone lift the floor-door (hatch?) and look in there?

If someone is down there - the person would disable the items. Can the "alert" that a pilot would send out if under distress also be disabled? (I am using quotes because I don't know the name of the signal).

I am doing a great deal of hand-waving here, meaning how does someone get into this space, but an extra maintenance worker not clocking out at the end of the day is less noticeable. They just happen to know how a fly a plane - not land, not takeoff, but fly.

The reason why someone would do this - don't know - but am curious how large this space is and how often it is looked at.

Thanks,
t

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-16 16:59:05 and read 35240 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 202):
Through a satellite phone if the plane is so equipped. This could be disabled by the pilots though I think.

But not through squawk-like system or direct comms through HF? Because now you end up with monopoly of cockpit for this kind of transmissions, but if cockpit is captured then you're done. Opposite to that, if there was oppotunity to signal from the deck, on receiving such signal ATC could check situation with pilot and if any suspicions, raise the alarm...
It's maybe for another discussion though, sorry for deviating.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 17:02:14 and read 34909 times.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 204):
That is what I suspected would be the case.

To expand on that...

Back when the Gulf of Thailand around the last known SSR return was the main search area, I had suggested that it would be somewhat simple to image the entire area, use (simple) computer vision algorithms to pick out the most interesting images, and have them all reviewed in descending order of 'interestingness' by a large team. It looks like China did just that, as they deployed 10 imaging satellites and were able to locate a fairly promising debris field with pieces of approximately the correct size within days. That is all very practicable when you are looking at a small area.

With the search area they are looking at now, I am confident enough to say that is impossible. The scale is just incredible, and the debris field no doubt has dispersed quite a bit.

It will have to be traditional SAR, looking up and down for weeks for the smallest hint of floating wreckage. It could take years. It could never be found.

Whoever the perpetrator, whatever the motive, they have definitely made history... in all the wrong ways...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 17:05:33 and read 34587 times.

Quoting cialome (Reply 208):
This was accessed in order to disable one or two of the technologies near the beginning of the flight.

Nope.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: MakeMinesLAX
Posted 2014-03-16 17:06:27 and read 34471 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 202):
From previous thread.

cat3appr50: Hard to believe that ATC red flags apparently weren’t raised (and notice to “authorities” initiated) when the expected handoff from Malaysia Center to Vietnam Center didn’t occur, with secondary radar painting MH 370 up to that point, the normal good bye message to Malaysia Center, then no comms. to Vietnam Center initiated, loss of secondary radar (transponder), etc.?

Answer: Planes "disappear" all the time for a variety of reasons, though they are typically "found" very soon. ATC/radar/comms just aren't that perfect. With no other indications of anything, it takes a while before alerts are raised since the assumption is that the flight is proceeding as planned.

I'm not an expert, but it doesn't sound like there's a formal transfer procedure between control centers. In other words, Malaysian ATC doesn't contact Vietnam ATC, but rather instructs the pilot to make the switch-over. If that is the case (experts, please chime in), the hand-off phase would have been an excellent opportunity to drop out of the ATC system, and the usual receiver would have no idea a plane was due to be inbound. The PIC took full advantage of this situation to avoid having the aircraft designated as missing for a considerable while.

I'll acknowledge that a lot of posters are focusing on the suicide aspect because that's the easier scenario to explain, but the above (again, if it's indicative of the way ATC works) could be exploited if the aircraft were to be used for nefarious purposes. An airliner with its transponder enabled could conceivably reinsert itself into the ATC system at such a transfer point and give all appearances of being a routine flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: todareisinger
Posted 2014-03-16 17:06:58 and read 34508 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 183):
The Rolls Royce "end of flight" engine report after about 4 hours was probably right anyway.Then it was sort of denied.Then we learn the flight may have flown for 4 hours.Then later it might have been 7 hours.There was probably a gap in satcom handshakes after 4 hours so that they stopped looking. Until they found one much later after avionics were somehow powered up again on the ground.


Yeah, I have read that the last signals were sent "from the ground" - could this mean the plane landed somewhere?

The more I think of this story, the more I believe it could be the case. In any case it seems to have been the goal....... if not, why organize such a complex operation??

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 17:07:32 and read 34511 times.

Quoting cialome (Reply 208):
This was accessed in order to disable one or two of the technologies near the beginning of the flight.

This is not true - see the summary at post 4. The EE bay did not need to be accessed.

Quoting cialome (Reply 208):
Can the "alert" that a pilot would send out if under distress also be disabled?

Somebody with more knowledge of the 777 would have to reply - I don't know if you can disable things like the transponder from the EE bay. The transponder is in the cockpit. BTW - an alert could be a emergency squawk code on the transponder.

However, if somebody in the EE bay disabled stuff - the pilots would just know they stopped working - not why.

Quoting cialome (Reply 208):
Do pilots or anyone lift the floor-door (hatch?) and look in there?

I don't know -but I doubt it. I think the idea is the a/c is in a secure location.

BTW - I think the access hatch in the 777 is outside the cockpit - so they would still have to breech the cockpit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-16 17:10:55 and read 34225 times.

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 212):
An airliner with its transponder enabled could conceivably reinsert itself into the ATC system at such a transfer point and give all appearances of being a routine flight.

That is a fascinating thought.

If true, then just as MH370 disappeared without anyone noticing for a while, a 'dark' plane (any plane, not necessarily the missing MH plane) using a transponder that was switched on just as it crossed a handover point could appear normal to ATC.

That's pretty frightening if so.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: CX Flyboy
Posted 2014-03-16 17:13:44 and read 33862 times.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 215):
Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 212):
An airliner with its transponder enabled could conceivably reinsert itself into the ATC system at such a transfer point and give all appearances of being a routine flight.

That is a fascinating thought.

If true, then just as MH370 disappeared without anyone noticing for a while, a 'dark' plane (any plane, not necessarily the missing MH plane) using a transponder that was switched on just as it crossed a handover point could appear normal to ATC.

That's pretty frightening if so.

You can't just appear at a FIR boundry with a randomly selected transponder code at an ATC unit who is not expecting you and be expected to appear normal. ATC knows what aircraft to expect because aircraft have flight plans filed. If they turn up unexpectedly ATC won't simply wave them into their airspace.

[Edited 2014-03-16 17:14:06]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-16 17:14:22 and read 33585 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 210):

What about going the other way?. I mean, using the aviation fan community a Tomnod or similar facility to try to locate an isolated 777 where there shouldn't be one?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 17:16:45 and read 33581 times.

I know the Captain's family moving out has been discussed before, but here is a link to a different article:

"Meanwhile, it has been revealed that Shah's wife and three children moved out of the family home in the days before flight MH370 went missing. "

Source: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/201...ds-from-jet-after-systems-shutdown

I know there are several reasons to point to the Captain, but the press conferences have indicated that MAS have not had a clue from the beginning. I'm just hoping that they are not over emphasizing the Captain took the plane theory because they still don't have a clue... After all, a MH employee doing this would be one of the scenarios with the most consequences for MH...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Shmendr
Posted 2014-03-16 17:17:04 and read 33475 times.

Question: Pilot's knowledge about Satellite area coverage?

Looking at the Immarsat Satellite Coverage map (link below), it's worth pointing out that Malaysian east coast lies in an area covered by two satellites, while only one satellite covers the western part.

I wonder if the individual(s) who planned for the event took into calculation this fact and thus made the left turn on purpose, in order to avoid being in an area covered by two satellites to minimize the chances of being found.

http://www.airliners.net/uf/47079/1395015064B0WIKE.jpeg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 17:18:06 and read 33258 times.

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 212):
I'm not an expert, but it doesn't sound like there's a formal transfer procedure between control centers.

Neither am I - but I have flown IFR (not as PIC) and handled comms. The prev ATC just told us to contact the next. I don't think they pre-alerted the next one.

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 212):
usual receiver would have no idea a plane was due to be inbound

I don't think that is true. I do think they have a flight plan so they know a plane is expected - and a general time. If one does not check on - they may contact the previous sector to see if they have left. This is for IFR flight which counts for all flights at this altitude.

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 212):
the hand-off phase would have been an excellent opportunity to drop out of the ATC

Yes - at least for a while. Obviously not for a long while. MH370 was missed within something like 30 minutes.

Quoting todareisinger (Reply 213):
Yeah, I have read that the last signals were sent "from the ground" - could this mean the plane landed somewhere?

(Wearily he says) - no the last signal was a SATCOM ping. It could have as easily come from an aircraft in flight or on the grounds (and powered up). I believe this whole "it could be on the ground" thing is being taken out of context by people who are desperate for news.

Yes - it could have been on the ground - or in the air. The SATCOM ping has no information about location, altitude or anything other than a 'comm channel exists'.

Now - if there is new data that says something other than a SATCOM ping, like a Rolls Royce end of flight report, was received - that is new data. I've seen no credible reports of that.
(Obviously - I will need to address this in the next Sanity Check).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-16 17:19:46 and read 33298 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 199):
Warning to mods..... I'm loosin' it - need to step away.

I'm surprised you didn't start loosin' it ages ago! There seems to be an sudden influx of people who haven't read any of the previous discussion and expect the whole week's worth to be spoonfed.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 133):
Journalists: could you please ask investigators about the 01:30 call at the next daily briefing?

Remember the article in the StraitsTimes first reported on this site by loladaisydukes, Thread #5, Reply 121, posted Sat Mar 8 2014

A journalist asked on about day two. The investigators said it wasn't true. I don't know why some sections of the press chose to keep running with it.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 135):
The Malaysian investigators don't have a great history so far of looking for "obvious" things in a timely manner - or at least of acknowledging them in public. (Which is, for this little sub-thread, the part we'd be concerned about.) They only acknowledged the SATCOM pings and even the *radar* returns after they were forced to by PR leaks. And only after several days.

That's one way of looking at it. Another is that very early in the process the investigators were quite open about needing help with analysis some of of the information they had and were therefore reluctant to be too specific. I'm not convinced they even had access to the Satcom information until they were given it by third parties. The "mystery tweeter" (FlyingWithFish) claimed RR had received engine data for several hours and that the data contained positional information. Now we hear that the "engine data" was simply the Satcom sending "keep alive" signals so can we be sure the investigators should have known all about them from the start? The existence of the signals was made public between press conferences while the investigators were talking to "other agencies", so I think it's no more than speculation to say they were "forced" to go public. How can we know they weren't talking about the Satcom signals while they were talking about analysis of the primary radar signals with those other agencies?

Quoting edmountain (Reply 189):
And what's the source for the successful end of flight transmission? Was that confirmed or just a leak that's been promulgated without basis?

Certainly not confirmed by the investigators.


Quoting rcair1 (Reply 191):
We did not need the FBI to tell us this - anybody who has been following this knows it.

   Just like the AF447 threads, it looks as though things can only progress so far before they loop back to the beginning.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 17:22:22 and read 32796 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 220):
(Obviously - I will need to address this in the next Sanity Check).

You're going to age faster than a president if you keep this up

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-16 17:23:06 and read 33149 times.

Quoting cialome (Reply 208):

Can someone outline how much room is in the avionics bay, which I understand is under the pilots. This was accessed in order to disable one or two of the technologies near the beginning of the flight.

I am asking because there has been an assumption it is one of the pilots. But my question is this - can a person "hide" in there? Do pilots or anyone lift the floor-door (hatch?) and look in there?

If someone is down there - the person would disable the items. Can the "alert" that a pilot would send out if under distress also be disabled? (I am using quotes because I don't know the name of the signal).

It's not huge but a person can fit in the E/E bay.

Note that while earier in these threads "we" thought you needed E/E bay access to disable comms, it turns out that it can all be shut down from the cockpit.

Not sure if the VHF radios or transponders can be disabled from the E/E bay.

http://i282.photobucket.com/albums/kk262/marwaanmax/IMG_0321.jpg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 17:29:42 and read 32338 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 221):
Just like the AF447 threads, it looks as though things can only progress so far before they loop back to the beginning.

Oh no - are we stuck in a do loop with no exit....  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: travelhound
Posted 2014-03-16 17:30:17 and read 32295 times.

The Australian Government are sending a search aircraft to Keeling (Cocos) Island.

Could this have been a copycat of the recent Ethiopian incident with the pilot and/or passengers seeking asylum in Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-...a-says-analyst-20140317-hvjjw.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: billreid
Posted 2014-03-16 17:31:07 and read 32102 times.

The Telegraaf in Holland is reporting some luggage floating was found. any further on this?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 17:34:58 and read 31821 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 226):
The Telegraaf in Holland is reporting some luggage floating was found. any further on this?

False positive, as always with this incident. Nothing was found.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-16 17:34:59 and read 31773 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 226):
The Telegraaf in Holland is reporting some luggage floating was found. any further on this?

Yes...

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
•Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 17:35:40 and read 31779 times.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 225):
Could this have been a copycat of the recent Ethiopian incident with the pilot and/or passengers seeking asylum in Australia.

I doubt it. We would have heard from them by now, unless they got unlucky during their asylum mission and the plane crashed... You don't need to take a 777 to come to Australia, all you need is a boat, even an old leaky boat - the Navy will pick you up and put you into a detention center after you get close... However, a plane would be able to land on the mainland which gives you more rights...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 17:35:49 and read 31881 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 221):
Just like the AF447 threads, it looks as though things can only progress so far before they loop back to the beginning.

But there is a big difference. AF447 crashed and it took over 2 years to know why. In this case, a plane vanished with all indications that it was professionally hijacked. There is as much investigation to do on the ground about the background of the occupants of MAS370 as there is in finding the airplane. So we will get to know more about the criminal activity as days unfold which is why we are not in the same situation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: lweber557
Posted 2014-03-16 17:36:27 and read 31700 times.

Quoting Freeman (Reply 100):
One or both pilots are involved.
The passengers probably didn't know anything was amiss and were just settling in for the long red eye flight.
Assuming the aircraft turned and was flying to the NW, they were gaining time (flying into the darkness) which tells us they most likely landed at a military airfield (think Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia) and concealed the aircraft in a hangar before the sun came up...and well before the public was aware of a missing aircraft.
The plane has already been repainted and will soon be repurposed as a weapon of mass destruction. There's a reason they wanted a heavy (+/-7,500 mile range) jumbo jet and I have a news flash...it's not to sell off its parts or fly it to Switzerland to request asylum.
Potential targets include Tel Aviv (make it look like an Iranian op so that the rest of the world can justify another war) and Washington D.C. because the American regime (and I'm an American) is the biggest exporter of war the world has ever seen.
This is a very well planned, financed and rehearsed government sponsored act...think Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Iran.
The aircraft with it's new livery and transponder will (sooner than later) be utilized in an attack that will rival a 9/11 or any other act of terrorism we've ever witnessed.
Still think this is fantasy?
Keep your eyes on Tel Aviv...

A couple of days ago I would have said this theory is too out there but after this many days and no trace of the aircraft this is very plausible. Lets hope your wrong or if it is true an attack can be thwarted. Hopefully the intelligence organizations of the US and our allies our working hard in looking into something like this. And if its found out that Iran or some other country is behind the disappearance that would surely be an act of war.

[Edited 2014-03-16 17:38:57]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: DIRECTFLT
Posted 2014-03-16 17:36:53 and read 31784 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 218):
"Meanwhile, it has been revealed that Shah's wife and three children moved out of the family home in the days before flight MH370 went missing. "

This UK Daily Mirror article metions the pilot's wife and children moving out the day before the flight.
Also mentions the pilot's political leanings.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...sian-airlines-flight-mh370-3248001

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 17:38:43 and read 31361 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 223):
Note that while earier in these threads "we" thought you needed E/E bay access to disable comms, it turns out that it can all be shut down from the cockpit.

Depends how you phrase it. Disable ACARS = E/E bay. Limit transmissions = Flight deck.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-16 17:39:05 and read 31496 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 226):
The Telegraaf in Holland is reporting some luggage floating was found. any further on this?

This has apparently been debunked.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: trnswrld
Posted 2014-03-16 17:39:57 and read 31446 times.

Wow that's the first I have heard about the captains wife and kids moving out a few days prior to this flight. Very interesting. Before reading that I was thinking it had to be the 27 year old first officer. As much as I would hate to say it, it's gotta be one of those guys.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: audioace87
Posted 2014-03-16 17:40:12 and read 31381 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 223):

This is just a cool post. In such a high tech machine, this is the guts that fly it! Anyway to get a tour of the E/E bay?

I think its a little odd that there is plywood in there though. The photo also addresses the access from the cabin question as there is an obvious ladder leading up on the right.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: trnswrld
Posted 2014-03-16 17:42:21 and read 30979 times.

^^^where do you see plywood?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jcxroberts
Posted 2014-03-16 17:43:19 and read 31057 times.

You can avoid radar by hugging close to the terrain.

The Southern Route crosses Indonesian and Austrailian radar so it is only a bit more likely to be undetected there.

If the leaks about the x-ray machine being off are true, I think unknown cargo looks like a good motive. As a way to avoid embargo maybe.

---


Missing Malaysia Airlines jet may have flown under radar: investigators

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-...-20140317-hvjlf.html#ixzz2wBBXysJq

[Edited 2014-03-16 17:47:06]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: alfa164
Posted 2014-03-16 17:43:54 and read 31057 times.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 127):
The data we have, which is scarce, makes pilot suicide the most plausible scenario. Everyone who says suicide doesn't make sense is using illogical reasoning to dismiss it. There is a lot of this going on here ... fascinating when you think about it ...

I would say it is ONE plausible scenario - but the motives don't add up. If the captain was truly upset enough to hijack the plane because he hated the Malaysian government, he should have been smart enough to realize that his actions would only give them ammunition to portray their opponents as crazed madmen. Who would ditch a 777 full of passengers to make a dubious political statement - only a deranged madman?
The possibility of taking and hiding the plane - to be used as a weapon later - is equally plausible. Unless that act of terrorism were to happen within hours of the plane's disappearance - and it didn't - then the likelihood of its success diminishes exponentially.

More plausible, in my opinion, is the possibility it was taken for some other purpose. While there is a lot of speculation about "cargo" being a possible motive, I believe holding the plane - and its passengers - for ransom is even more credible. That not only could force the government (presumably Malaysian) into paying a huge dilemma (pay the money? accede to the hijackers' demands), but would also be a huge embarrassment to the party in power.

Maybe I am just being hopeful, but I see a possibility of the passengers and crew still being alive.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-16 17:45:59 and read 30903 times.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 230):
But there is a big difference. AF447 crashed and it took over 2 years to know why.

There's another big difference. AF447 sent a lot of informative ACARS messages which people completely ignored in their eagerness to outdo each other's theories. Round and round and round we went, again and again. Repetitiveness is what I was getting at.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 224):
Oh no - are we stuck in a do loop with no exit...

That's what 8GB of RAM is for. It was no fun with 32KB.  

[Edited 2014-03-16 17:49:12]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 17:46:06 and read 30606 times.

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 235):
Wow that's the first I have heard about the captains wife and kids moving out a few days prior to this flight.

I wouldn't trust a British tabloid like the Mirror without further confirmation. And the reference to his children moving out doesn't make sense as earlier reports said his three children were all adults. The captain was a grandfather.

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 235):
Before reading that I was thinking it had to be the 27 year old first officer.

One report said he lived with his parents.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: btfarrwm
Posted 2014-03-16 17:46:11 and read 30581 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 220):
(Wearily he says) - no the last signal was a SATCOM ping. It could have as easily come from an aircraft in flight or on the grounds (and powered up). I believe this whole "it could be on the ground" thing is being taken out of context by people who are desperate for news.

Yes - it could have been on the ground - or in the air. The SATCOM ping has no information about location, altitude or anything other than a 'comm channel exists'.

Now - if there is new data that says something other than a SATCOM ping, like a Rolls Royce end of flight report, was received - that is new data. I've seen no credible reports of that.
(Obviously - I will need to address this in the next Sanity Check).

Couldn't small variances in the SATCOM ping delays be attributed to altitude? It's ~7 miles further for the signal to travel to the earth's surface than at altitude. Maybe that is why they think the last ping could have come from land.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 17:47:20 and read 30675 times.

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 232):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 218):
"Meanwhile, it has been revealed that Shah's wife and three children moved out of the family home in the days before flight MH370 went missing. "

This UK Daily Mirror article metions the pilot's wife and children moving out the day before the flight.
Also mentions the pilot's political leanings.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...sian-airlines-flight-mh370-3248001

If this was pilot suicide by the Captain, would this be the most experienced pilot involved in a pilot suicide mission? Also, would this involve the highest passenger count and largest aircraft to be involved in a suicide mission? Other listed reported pilot suicide flights were Silk Air 185 which was a 737 and Egypt Air 990 which was a 767 with 217 SOB.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 17:48:57 and read 30476 times.

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 238):
Missing Malaysia Airlines jet may have flown under radar: investigators

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-...-20140317-hvjlf.html#ixzz2wBBXysJq

It's funny, some media is saying investigators say the southern arc is the most likely, others are saying investigators say the northern arc is most likely. Radar doesn't have them below the flight levels in the peninsula, but now "investigators are saying" they flew low over Malaysia. And other unidentified countries. Alrighty then. Let's just not pay attention to the mainstream media anymore at all, okay? We'll all be happier and healthier and learn just as much.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-16 17:49:36 and read 30545 times.

Quoting audioace87 (Reply 236):
I think its a little odd that there is plywood in there though. The photo also addresses the access from the cabin question as there is an obvious ladder leading up on the right.

I don't know why there's plywood. Perhaps this pic may have been taken during a check or something and they put down the plywood to protect the floor.

No idea really.

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 237):
^^^where do you see plywood?

At the bottom of the pic in reply 223.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 17:50:27 and read 30573 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 220):
(Wearily he says) - no the last signal was a SATCOM ping. It could have as easily come from an aircraft in flight or on the grounds (and powered up). I believe this whole "it could be on the ground" thing is being taken out of context by people who are desperate for news.

Yes - it could have been on the ground - or in the air. The SATCOM ping has no information about location, altitude or anything other than a 'comm channel exists'.

Now - if there is new data that says something other than a SATCOM ping, like a Rolls Royce end of flight report, was received - that is new data. I've seen no credible reports of that.
(Obviously - I will need to address this in the next Sanity Check).

I agree. I'm watching CNN right now and they're going on and on about how the last signal could have been made from the ground but they're just slow in the uptake; there's no new information whatsoever.

Looking more closely the excitement seems to stem from a statement by Malaysia's civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman confirming the possibility of a signal from the ground but there is no indication of any new data signal. For example:

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/ma...-nations-for-help-in-finding-mh370

"It is possible that the radars could have picked up a signal from the plane while it was on the ground as long as the electricity was on, said Civil Aviation Chief Datuk Azharuddin Abdul Rahman."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Rara
Posted 2014-03-16 17:52:48 and read 29990 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 221):
I'm surprised you didn't start loosin' it ages ago! There seems to be an sudden influx of people who haven't read any of the previous discussion and expect the whole week's worth to be spoonfed.

If only. I feel that we've went from joint fact-finding to everyone nursing their own little pet theory.

We should all remember that even after a week, the disappearance of MH370 is still first and foremost a complete mystery. Sure there are some possible explanations, but let's face it, not a single one is very likely.

Pilot suicide - unlikely.
Aircraft theft - unlikely.
Technical malfunction - unlikely.
Terror plot - unlikely.

In other words, all theories are welcome - but please don't go "it's GOTTA be this or that, no doubt about it". We're not yet at this point by a long shot.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jcxroberts
Posted 2014-03-16 17:53:58 and read 30097 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 244):
Radar doesn't have them below the flight levels in the peninsula, but now "investigators are saying" they flew low over Malaysia.

I know witness reports are unreliable, but there were a number who saw a low flying plane coming back over the peninsula.

It may have swung up again by the next radar ping.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: trex8
Posted 2014-03-16 17:54:53 and read 29796 times.

Quoting greaser (Reply 196):
As a result, combat aircraft never scrambled to investigate. The plane, identified at the time by Mr. Najib as Flight 370, passed directly over Penang,

Do they even keep QRA? They only have 36 front line fighters (and no, I really dont think they will put an AIM9 on a Hawk or F5 and put them on QRA unless they literally are at war). Assume a third or more (especially the Russian ones) are not available at any time for service. I would assume not all are on peninsular Malaya either. Also night time (unless they had agreement with Singapore to cross cover like the Swiss/French/italian did for the recent ET hijacking when the Swiss AF was literally still in bed at 0600). Chances of a fast jet being scrambled would be minimal at a time when there is no heightened alert status due to possible external threats. Even if it was scrambled, chances of them finding it at night is not high. This is not an AF used to night sorties or using NVGs.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 17:56:37 and read 29661 times.

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 235):
Wow that's the first I have heard about the captains wife and kids moving out a few days prior to this flight.

See this section of the Sanity Check - short answer is it has been reported as untrue.
Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).


--
Quoting btfarrwm (Reply 242):
Couldn't small variances in the SATCOM ping delays be attributed to altitude? It's ~7 miles further for the signal to travel to the earth's surface than at altitude. Maybe that is why they think the last ping could have come from land.

According to the maps included in the linked part of the sanity check (you'll have to go there to look at them) - the satellite is 35,800 km (23922 miles) above the earth. Plus it is not centered over the flight path. So 7 miles is a 0.029% change. I doubt it is detectable. I've heard statements that the projected loci from the satellite was 100 miles wide.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.

• Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.

• NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-16 17:57:07 and read 29680 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 245):
I don't know why there's plywood. Perhaps this pic may have been taken during a check or something and they put down the plywood to protect the floor.

No idea really.

Every ship, no matter what it´s purpose gathers (condensed) water and therewith weight, especially a Pax A/C. Heck, my last employer, operating 22 of the same (narrowbody) A/C of some vintage had do almost seperate Loadsheets for each Plane (same type, but different weights due to... as described), as they varied up to half a Ton (thats about 1100 LBS) in available load space, due to lots of condense water in the hull! Cardboard or wooden plates, plus all the extra nuts, bolts & brackets the tec Boys had added over the years! This is Standard practise as any Mechanic will confirm
Lets Forget the Plywood...... please! It is common & of no interest in any A/C that has a few years under ist belt!

Edit: Spelling!

[Edited 2014-03-16 17:58:12]

[Edited 2014-03-16 18:02:22]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 17:58:01 and read 29935 times.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 239):
I believe holding the plane - and its passengers - for ransom is even more credible. That not only could force the government (presumably Malaysian) into paying a huge dilemma (pay the money? accede to the hijackers' demands), but would also be a huge embarrassment to the party in power.

That would require feeding and attending to a lot of people. Not worth it.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 239):
The possibility of taking and hiding the plane - to be used as a weapon later - is equally plausible.

If that is not the number one consideration of many generals around the world, then they should face early retirement

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 239):
Unless that act of terrorism were to happen within hours of the plane's disappearance - and it didn't - then the likelihood of its success diminishes exponentially.

The plan probably was to attack within 2-3 days while searches were in the sea near Malaysia. But the SATCOM trail messed them up now and they now need to replan. Hopefully we are closing in on them

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 235):
Wow that's the first I have heard about the captains wife and kids moving out a few days prior to this flight. Very interesting. Before reading that I was thinking it had to be the 27 year old first officer.

It does all point to the captain at this stage as the pilot hijacker. He was probably acting weird lately or he told his wife and kids that some bad things may happen so move out. The fact that he built a 777 simulator is interesting. Maybe he needed a place to practice with the FMS and navigating the plane to places he never flew before. It would be very interesting to know for example if the sim had a 777 FMS trainer (usually provided by the vendor for desktops, etc.).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 17:58:23 and read 29678 times.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 239):
More plausible, in my opinion, is the possibility it was taken for some other purpose. While there is a lot of speculation about "cargo" being a possible motive, I believe holding the plane - and its passengers - for ransom is even more credible. That not only could force the government (presumably Malaysian) into paying a huge dilemma (pay the money? accede to the hijackers' demands), but would also be a huge embarrassment to the party in power.

I would have more confidence in such a theory if I could be told of just one example cargo for which it makes sense to only have been acquired only through such an elaborate and unreliable fashion.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 17:59:13 and read 29891 times.

Quoting Rara (Reply 247):
In other words, all theories are welcome - but please don't go "it's GOTTA be this or that, no doubt about it". We're not yet at this point by a long shot

Huzzah! Great point!   

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 18:05:36 and read 29131 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 246):
they're going on and on about how the last signal could have been made from the ground

Something I mentioned threads ago, was that in order to trick the system / investigators, the plane could have flown an hour or so past its planned destination and then turned around and came back. If the signal doesn't include the location but just indicates the flight time or engine running time, then yes:

1) It could have landed and kept the engines running in order to keep the signal transmitting in order to trick investigators into thinking the plane was airborne for longer than it was.

or,

2) The plane was headed somewhere only, let's say, fours hours away. But they had seven hours of fuel, so they flew 1.5 hours past their destination and then came back and landed in order to make investigators think that the plane flew in a straight line for seven hours. That would put the search area off by a long way.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-16 18:05:37 and read 29098 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 245):
I don't know why there's plywood. Perhaps this pic may have been taken during a check or something and they put down the plywood to protect the floor.

It is probably a full scale mock-up or ground test rig of some-kind.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-16 18:08:35 and read 28659 times.

Did the aircraft have enough range to fly due south of SriLanka and then onto Somalia? Is that a theory being considered and looked at?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 18:09:21 and read 28644 times.

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 248):
I know witness reports are unreliable, but there were a number who saw a low flying plane coming back over the peninsula.

It may have swung up again by the next radar ping.

I tend to trust the radar over the people, they'll say they saw whatever they think they saw. Many people claim to have seen flying saucers.

Radar is fast. You're not going to go up and down ~20k ft within minutes and without anyone noticing. What is even max climb on a semi-laden 777 @ avg temperatures? I don't know, that's just silly, but maybe they have not been entirely forthcoming with the entirety of the radar data.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 18:11:25 and read 28440 times.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 256):
It is probably a full scale mock-up or ground test rig of some-kind.

That's what it looked like to me.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 18:14:05 and read 28259 times.

More on Msian Air force radar.

Source taken from http://www.fz.com/content/air-force-...apping-mh370-could-have-been-saved

Quote:
Air Force caught napping. MH370 could have been saved
Postdate_lastpublished
First Published: 9:04am, Mar 17, 2014
Last Updated: 9:04am, Mar 17, 2014
..Printer-friendly versionSend by email

Nation
by V Shankar Ganesh
MALAYSIA Airlines MH370 flew over or near at least three military radar stations in northern Peninsular Malaysia, yet the four-man crew that operated each station somehow mysteriously missed the radar blips on their screens.

But this is hardly surprising since the Defence Ministry admitted that between 2008 and mid-2011, there were a total of 2,508 Malaysian airspace intrusions by the Singaporean air force.

The Singaporean intrusions are more easily detectable due to its location and predicable flight paths but what about other parts of the country?

Perhaps the air force realises this and has since equipped itself with advanced radar systems through the Malaysian Air Defense Ground Environment Sector Operations Center III (MADGE) Programme.

But then the air force failed in doing the very thing they were trained to do – detecting an unidentified plane flying in an erratic manner in our airspace.

In fact, the plane flew over Penang and one can only imagine what would have happened if the perpetrators decided to bring it down there.

The Malaysia military took full delivery of one of the advanced Thales Raytheon Systems early last year with an integrated Sentry command and control system and the Ground Master 400 3D radar.

According to Thales, the MADGE system operates in real-time and features multi-radar tracking and a flexible human-machine interface.

The GM 400 radar also provides long-range surveillance capabilities for the Royal Malaysian Air Force.

Its reach is up to 400 km and it is more than sufficient to detect the MH370.

It is now clear that the four-man crew in the three air defence stations, who were supposed to be watching the radar screens, either did not notice or failed to report to their superiors that an unidentified plane was flying across the country.

Had they done so, the air defence high command of the air force in Kuala Lumpur would presumably have scrambled fighter jets to identify the plane, make contact with it and finally guide it to a safe landing.

But then it was allowed to fly on and the rest is history. By the time the air force realised it, it was too late.

Military insiders say such incidents are supposed to be tracked real time and not based on recordings.

Hence the millions spent on the radar systems meant nothing to the nation. The Sukhois in Gong Kedak, Terengganu and the FA-18s in Butterworth, Penang were stationed there for years for exactly this type of situation.

We now wonder whether they will ever see any action.

So were people sleeping on the job or was lackadaisicalness enveloping the air force?

When Defense Minister Datuk Seri Hisammuddin Hussein was posed this question, all he had to say was that all standard operating procedures were followed and the priority was now to locate the missing plane.

Whether it is a flawed system or our men sleeping on the job, one thing for sure, this episode exposes Malaysia’s vulnerability.
....

Read more: http://www.fz.com/content/air-force-...ould-have-been-saved#ixzz2wB5VOZzp

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 18:14:41 and read 28061 times.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 197):
If your hypothesis is true, then this is the most planned pilot suicide in history.

Maybe the most planned suicide period in history.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: trnswrld
Posted 2014-03-16 18:15:13 and read 28109 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 245):
At the bottom of the pic in reply 223.

Yeah I don't think that's plywood your seeing there.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 18:16:53 and read 28071 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 243):
If this was pilot suicide by the Captain, would this be the most experienced pilot involved in a pilot suicide mission? Also, would this involve the highest passenger count and largest aircraft to be involved in a suicide mission? Other listed reported pilot suicide flights were Silk Air 185 which was a 737 and Egypt Air 990 which was a 767 with 217 SOB.

There was also the JAL DC-8-61 that crashed on approach to HND in 1982 in what was believed to be a suicide attempt by the mentally-disturbed captain, age 35. Fortunately, 150 of the 174 aboard survived including all the crew. The captain was found not guilty by reason of insanity.
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19820209-0

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 18:19:17 and read 27753 times.

Quoting Rara (Reply 247):
We should all remember that even after a week, the disappearance of MH370 is still first and foremost a complete mystery. Sure there are some possible explanations, but let's face it, not a single one is very likely.

Pilot suicide - unlikely.
Aircraft theft - unlikely.
Technical malfunction - unlikely.
Terror plot - unlikely.

In other words, all theories are welcome - but please don't go "it's GOTTA be this or that, no doubt about it". We're not yet at this point by a long shot.

I disagree. Given with 100% certainty that the aircraft is missing, and assuming the mechanism is one of the four listed above, then the probability of some of them being the correct explanation increases considerably. Such explanations are no longer unlikely.

The information we have this far has allowed us to rank those possibilities somewhat, with technical malfunction becoming least likely. Occam's razor also renders aircraft theft unlikely. However, we know the probabilities must add up to 100% so the other two explanations suddenly become likely no matter how outlandish they seemed at first.

Something along the lines of "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" as per Sherlock Holmes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: dragon6172
Posted 2014-03-16 18:19:56 and read 27698 times.

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 262):
Yeah I don't think that's plywood your seeing there.

That's what I was thinking. If we are talking the bottom center of the picture, that looks like an insulation bag against the skin.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 18:22:22 and read 27257 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already.

Might help some flying an oddball route (lateral and vertical) he (and possibly anyone else) has never flown before.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.

It seems to me that would tend to rule out all theories regarding the purpose being the theft of the aircraft itself. One of the first boxes to tick in that case would be where to land a stolen 777 full of passengers unobserved.

BTW, thanks once again for the great summary/sanity check/primer on ATC/primer on aircraft satellite communication/etc.

[Edited 2014-03-16 18:30:02]

[Edited 2014-03-16 18:30:28]

[Edited 2014-03-16 18:31:37]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-16 18:26:21 and read 26855 times.

Quoting Bronko (Reply 29):
Companies that make the technology for these devices are working on voice and data recorders that will in addition to record, also transmit the data live to the ground.

If that technology was on MH370, it wouldn't still be a mystery.

No. All the hijacker would have to do is pull the circuit breaker for the recorder(s).

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 116):
I alluded to something similar to this scenario back in part 14, reply 293. I hope to god this guy and me are both wrong, I hope these poor folks have found a final resting place somewhere.
But it makes a chilling amount of sense.

There are too many unknowns. And a lot at stake. Which is why they will not stop looking for this plane until they find it. (IMO)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 18:31:38 and read 26387 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 267):

No. All the hijacker would have to do is pull the circuit breaker for the recorder(s).

Well, we'd likely know that he pulled the breaker(s).

That would have pretty much instantly confirmed foul play.

[Edited 2014-03-16 18:31:56]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 18:31:41 and read 26403 times.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 263):

It this was a suicide then I would suspect that it could only be one of the pilots. Why would somebody else take over / hi-jack the plane only to commit suicide? I can understand terrorists taking over the plane but they would be on something more than just a suicide mission into the ocean. However, if the plane was taken, then anybody could be involved - the pilots, passengers, cabin crew, ground staff, etc.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: harim
Posted 2014-03-16 18:32:35 and read 26441 times.

More speculation http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/m...-1500m-to-avoid-detection-says-nst

The passenger satellite phones and tracking maps must have been disabled.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: aluminumtubing
Posted 2014-03-16 18:34:11 and read 25964 times.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 239):
More plausible, in my opinion, is the possibility it was taken for some other purpose. While there is a lot of speculation about "cargo" being a possible motive, I believe holding the plane - and its passengers - for ransom is even more credible.

I have not read all the threads on this subject, so if this has already been discussed, I apologize. It is theoretically possible that whomever is responsible for this, may have temporarily reduced the cabin pressurization to an un-inhabitable altitude while remaining on oxygen in the cockpit.

This is truly a sad event, and I hope the families involved are able to come to some peace sooner than later.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 18:34:16 and read 25946 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 268):
Well, we'd likely know that he pulled the breaker(s).

That would have pretty much instantly confirmed foul play.

When breakers trip I my house I don't automatically suspect foul play.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-16 18:35:15 and read 26330 times.

Here is another picture of a 777 E/E bay. I think what people are referring to a "plywood" is actually insulation. Enlarge to see more clearly.



For reference, the main access panel is highlighted in blue:

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 18:37:09 and read 25887 times.

Quoting harim (Reply 270):

That's confusing. They avoided secondary radar by disabling the transponder.

It would be primary radar they would avoid via maneuvering.

Do they mean they dropped 1,500 meters, or dropped to 1,500 meters?

Surely dropping that low would use a lot of fuel?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 18:38:19 and read 25705 times.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 271):
I have not read all the threads on this subject, so if this has already been discussed, I apologize. It is theoretically possible that whomever is responsible for this, may have temporarily reduced the cabin pressurization to an un-inhabitable altitude while remaining on oxygen in the cockpit.

Yes, has been discussed and is possible. The oxygen for the pax is only good for about 10-15 mins. Also, I thought that one of the pilots might have disabled the oxygen mask of the other pilot - that would be a way to get rid of the other pilot. I'm sure that would not be hard to do when the other pilot went to the toilet or was out of the cockpit before departure.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 18:39:54 and read 25651 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 272):

When breakers trip I my house I don't automatically suspect foul play.

The sound of pulling the C/B would be recorded and sent...

As it actually was in one case, iirc. Recorded, I mean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: aluminumtubing
Posted 2014-03-16 18:44:39 and read 25203 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 275):
Also, I thought that one of the pilots might have disabled the oxygen mask of the other pilot

That is definitely theoretically possible, however, the cockpit masks are required to be checked on the pre-flight checklist by both pilots and any jump seat riders. But, could obviously be done inflight while the other pilot was outside the cockpit. With the time of useful consciousness at that altitude, it would not be difficult.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TheWipp
Posted 2014-03-16 18:46:21 and read 24991 times.

"Background checks of passengers have drawn a blank but not every country whose nationals were on board has responded to requests for information, Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Khalid Abu Bakar said."

I read that a few times now. Is this normal in such a case or something to think about ?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 11Bravo
Posted 2014-03-16 18:47:15 and read 24955 times.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 271):
I have not read all the threads on this subject, so if this has already been discussed, I apologize. It is theoretically possible that whomever is responsible for this, may have temporarily reduced the cabin pressurization to an un-inhabitable altitude while remaining on oxygen in the cockpit.

I believe that has been mentioned. It would explain why there was no interference from passengers or the cabin crew. It is also very cold-blooded. At some point, perhaps, a recovered FDR might tell us if the cabin oxygen/pressure control system was intentionally disabled.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 18:50:50 and read 24579 times.

Quoting TheWipp (Reply 278):
"Background checks of passengers have drawn a blank but not every country whose nationals were on board has responded to requests for information, Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Khalid Abu Bakar said."

I read that a few times now. Is this normal in such a case or something to think about ?

I was thinking the same thing, especially if China is one of the countries not responding. After all, most of the pax on MH370 were Chinese and the Chinese were making a lot of noise about the investigation from the start...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 18:52:12 and read 24400 times.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 277):
That is definitely theoretically possible, however, the cockpit masks are required to be checked on the pre-flight checklist by both pilots and any jump seat riders. But, could obviously be done inflight while the other pilot was outside the cockpit. With the time of useful consciousness at that altitude, it would not be difficult.

How does the perpetrator avoid hypothermia while waiting for the cabin crew and passenger oxygen to run out?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: BatBowlField
Posted 2014-03-16 18:53:58 and read 24343 times.

So I am really starting to wonder now about how reluctant / willing the governments of the various countries are in the search for the plane.

I'm sure they want to be seen as helping out and doing everything they can to find the plane.

On the other hand, I feel as if they don't want to be revealing too much of their surveillance capabilities to other countries. If this is the case, then will the Malaysians risk calling them out and further complicate matters?

For the sake of the families that have been affected by this tragedy, I really hope every country cooperates fully (on the front lines or behind the scenes). But politics is never far away from interfering.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 18:54:11 and read 24168 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 280):
was thinking the same thing, especially if China is one of the countries not responding. After all, most of the pax on MH370 were Chinese and the Chinese were making a lot of noise about the investigation from the star

I think during the pc yesterday, they mentioned that China cooperated. It was during the Q&A session and was in Malay.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: FXfan
Posted 2014-03-16 18:55:26 and read 24091 times.

I'm curious....what would the range have been if one engine was shut down? I realize this isn't necessary or reasonable, but could the plane maintain altitude and increase its range that way?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-16 18:55:39 and read 24114 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 281):
How does the perpetrator avoid hypothermia while waiting for the cabin crew and passenger oxygen to run out?

Warm clothes? Layers?

We don't know what they were wearing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-16 18:56:40 and read 24052 times.

WSJ has a nice bit about the P-8A operations (presumably the P-8Is are doing something similar.)

http://goo.gl/rO1qJ0

If nothing else, it's good practice with the new equipment.

[Edited 2014-03-16 18:57:43]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 18:56:46 and read 23872 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 283):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 280):
was thinking the same thing, especially if China is one of the countries not responding. After all, most of the pax on MH370 were Chinese and the Chinese were making a lot of noise about the investigation from the star

I think during the pc yesterday, they mentioned that China cooperated. It was during the Q&A session and was in Malay.

I would hope so after the way they were talking about the investigation from the beginning.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 18:58:31 and read 23672 times.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 285):

Beijing temperature would have been around 5 celcius on March 8 at the point of landing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Braniff747SP
Posted 2014-03-16 18:58:59 and read 23720 times.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 157):
And how do these countries know it's an enemy attacking and not just a passenger plane with equipment problems ?

They would try to force it down. If it didn't comply or ignored them they would shoot it down. Part of his conspiracy story, too, was that the plane would be repainted.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: aluminumtubing
Posted 2014-03-16 18:59:20 and read 23714 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 281):
How does the perpetrator avoid hypothermia while waiting for the cabin crew and passenger oxygen to run out?

He or they would not have to necessarily fully depressurize the aircraft. I am not familiar with the 777 passenger O2 system and how they may or may not deactivate the system. In any event, they can slowly raise the cabin altitude and it would be an insidious onset.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: StuckInCA
Posted 2014-03-16 19:00:46 and read 23582 times.

Quoting FXfan (Reply 284):
I'm curious....what would the range have been if one engine was shut down? I realize this isn't necessary or reasonable, but could the plane maintain altitude and increase its range that way?

I'm curious why so many people fire up anet and ask questions without reading even this latest thread. It's absolutely dumbfounding. An interesting study in human behavior but super frustrating for those of us who are actually reading everything.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 19:04:10 and read 23056 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 26):
Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 271):
I have not read all the threads on this subject, so if this has already been discussed, I apologize. It is theoretically possible that whomever is responsible for this, may have temporarily reduced the cabin pressurization to an un-inhabitable altitude while remaining on oxygen in the cockpit.

Yes

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-16 19:04:38 and read 23465 times.

Lots of dark colored SUVs parked outside of SEAL Team 6's compound today, I wonder what's up?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: trex8
Posted 2014-03-16 19:08:37 and read 22750 times.

Quoting davidzill (Reply 293):
Lots of dark colored SUVs parked outside of SEAL Team 6's compound today, I wonder what's up?

March Madness - for those outside the US, thats college basketball

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: rickabone
Posted 2014-03-16 19:09:50 and read 22710 times.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 291):

I'm curious why so many people fire up anet and ask questions without reading even this latest thread. It's absolutely dumbfounding. An interesting study in human behavior but super frustrating for those of us who are actually reading everything.

I think the answer is that most of us don't have the time to read 30+ threads of 300+ posts...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: FXfan
Posted 2014-03-16 19:13:01 and read 22336 times.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 291):

Someone get this guy an award for reading all of the posts.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-16 19:13:01 and read 22338 times.

I just had a thought..

How possible is it that the hijacker/pilot was monitoring communications, media, and possibly even the internet while his scenario was unfolding? And thus was able to even better stay one step ahead of investigators?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 19:14:01 and read 22287 times.

Quoting rickabone (Reply 295):
I think the answer is that most of us don't have the time to read 30+ threads of 300+ posts...

By the time I finished reading all 30 threads, the would be another 100s of new replies. I tried my best and yet I may have repeated same Q . Sanity check by rcair1 is good place to start reading before posting.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 19:14:28 and read 22159 times.

Quoting FXfan (Reply 284):
I'm curious....what would the range have been if one engine was shut down? I realize this isn't necessary or reasonable, but could the plane maintain altitude and increase its range that way?

No, it's not a turboprop.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: DiscoverCSG
Posted 2014-03-16 19:14:57 and read 22177 times.

Quoting FXfan (Reply 284):
I'm curious....what would the range have been if one engine was shut down? I realize this isn't necessary or reasonable, but could the plane maintain altitude and increase its range that way?

If this were a more efficient way to fly, this is how all flying would be done.

By shutting down one engine, you're left with asymmetrical thrust that must be countered with control surface movements. Having the rudder and other surfaces off center increases drag (and fuel burn) as does the non-functioning engine.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 19:17:01 and read 21943 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 297):
How possible is it that the hijacker/pilot was monitoring communications, media, and possibly even the internet while his scenario was unfolding? And thus was able to even better stay one step ahead of investigators?

Considering it didn't really hit the news until the plane would have been starved of fuel, impossible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: StuckInCA
Posted 2014-03-16 19:17:33 and read 22299 times.

Quoting rickabone (Reply 295):
I think the answer is that most of us don't have the time to read 30+ threads of 300+ posts...

Or one thread. Or, in most cases, even the excellent summaries provided in each thread.

You have no idea how much or little time others have. I personally would just be embarrassed to post questions or comments without at least reading one thread and maybe searching around a bit. Other people have no problem demonstrating their sense of self importance.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: hoMsAr
Posted 2014-03-16 19:19:01 and read 22110 times.

Quoting rickabone (Reply 295):
Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 291):

I'm curious why so many people fire up anet and ask questions without reading even this latest thread. It's absolutely dumbfounding. An interesting study in human behavior but super frustrating for those of us who are actually reading everything.

I think the answer is that most of us don't have the time to read 30+ threads of 300+ posts...

The irony being, there wouldn't be so many posts and so many threads if folks didn't say the same thing over and over.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 19:19:06 and read 22183 times.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 290):
He or they would not have to necessarily fully depressurize the aircraft. I am not familiar with the 777 passenger O2 system and how they may or may not deactivate the system. In any event, they can slowly raise the cabin altitude and it would be an insidious onset.

No because the masks automatically drop at a specific cabin altitude well before you'd end up hypoxic -- however the oxygen generators don't last that long so it's not that difficult if you're in the cockpit. A few walk around bottles in back but those run out before the pilots supply too.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-16 19:19:51 and read 22186 times.

We don't even have enough data to cite Occam's razor on anything...

I will give the Captain a Break and also I dont think he did it, the media is playing the lets blame someone card on this guy, due to some things that might be considered unusual... but that is all there is no hard evidence or message or anything to point fingers at...

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 19:21:38 and read 21971 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 304):

I was reading the report of the Helios incident, and it said the portable crew bottles were good for ~1 hour on high and ~2 hours on low and there were 4 of them.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Mutt
Posted 2014-03-16 19:21:45 and read 22110 times.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 290):
Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 290):
Quoting edmountain (Reply 281):
How does the perpetrator avoid hypothermia while waiting for the cabin crew and passenger oxygen to run out?

He or they would not have to necessarily fully depressurize the aircraft. I am not familiar with the 777 passenger O2 system and how they may or may not deactivate the system. In any event, they can slowly raise the cabin altitude and it would be an insidious onset.

I'm not familiar with the 777 pressurization system either, but I strongly think that a 737's ACM could provide warm/hot air to the cockpit and cabin with the airplane depressurized at FL410. It's not as if the outflow valve is 10 square meters at the front of the plane, it's quite small and it's in the back. Warm air comes in, and just exits without being under pressure. Pressure should be the only difference, not temperature.

Mutt

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-16 19:21:53 and read 22094 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 299):
No, it's not a turboprop.

Can you really even do this with a twin turboprop?

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 302):
Other people have no problem demonstrating their sense of self importance.

Funny that you should say that...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 19:26:08 and read 21536 times.

Quoting rickabone (Reply 295):
Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 291):

I'm curious why so many people fire up anet and ask questions without reading even this latest thread. It's absolutely dumbfounding. An interesting study in human behavior but super frustrating for those of us who are actually reading everything.

I think the answer is that most of us don't have the time to read 30 threads of 300 posts...
Quoting FXfan (Reply 296):
Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 291):

Someone get this guy an award for reading all of the posts.

Total replies to date in this thread (as of Reply 305 in Part 30) stand at 8,625. I'm guessing that's a record for any A.net thread.

How long does anyone think this event is going to generate so much interest and media coverage (and roughly 1,000 A.net replies daily) if the aircraft is never found and there's no further news apart from all the same speculation that the media keeps repeating endlessly?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 19:27:31 and read 21547 times.

1.6.3.5.2.2 Passenger Portable Oxygen
First aid and supplemental portable oxygen cylinders are installed at suitable locations in
the passenger cabin. The number and location of portable oxygen cylinders varies with
interior configuration. This aircraft was equipped with four cylinders located in the
passenger cabin (two opposite the aft service door, and two next to the flight deck door).
Each cylinder was fitted with a pressure gauge, pressure regulator and an On/Off valve.
The cylinders have a maximum capacity of 311 liters (11 cubic feet) of free oxygen when
pressurized to 1 800 psi. The oxygen could be used either through a four liter per minute
outlet, or through a two liter per minute outlet, resulting in an oxygen availability
duration of 1h 17 minutes or 2h 35 minutes, respectively.

From the Helios report regarding the duration of the crew portable oxygen.

If the 777 bottles are similar, it would take a while for the crew to succumb if they got to the oxygen bottles.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 19:30:52 and read 21123 times.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 305):
I will give the Captain a Break and also I dont think he did it, the media is playing the lets blame someone card on this guy, due to some things that might be considered unusual... but that is all there is no hard evidence or message or anything to point fingers at...

It's not an entirely unfair assumption to make, and even posthumously he is innocent until proven guilty, but that really should not stifle free speech.

He had the most seniority, the most hours on the type, the most familiarity with flying in that airspace. He would know exactly what to do, and if the goal was to disappear, he sure as shit pulled it off didn't he?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2014-03-16 19:33:21 and read 21031 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 275):
Also, I thought that one of the pilots might have disabled the oxygen mask of the other pilot - that would be a way to get rid of the other pilot. I'm sure that would not be hard to do when the other pilot went to the toilet or was out of the cockpit before departure.

I wonder if that may explain some of the erratic flying / altitude extremes. 2nd pilot realizes his mask isnt working or comes back from the toilet and tries to descend, there is a struggle but is overpowered and the PF goes right up to FL450 to make sure the job is done...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-16 19:34:04 and read 20738 times.

Quoting Mutt (Reply 307):
I'm not familiar with the 777 pressurization system either, but I strongly think that a 737's ACM could provide warm/hot air to the cockpit and cabin with the airplane depressurized at FL410. It's not as if the outflow valve is 10 square meters at the front of the plane, it's quite small and it's in the back. Warm air comes in, and just exits without being under pressure. Pressure should be the only difference, not temperature.

Are you familiar with the 737, then? Is it possible to open the outflow valve and depressurize completely if you have the compressor/bleed air/whatever feeding air into the cabin/cockpit? I had read someone say that even with the outflow valve open, if bleed air is working it will not let you get above 14000ft cabin altitude but that may have been wrong. Can you really depressurize the plane entirely just by opening the outflow valve?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-16 19:39:02 and read 20608 times.

Pretty neat graphic summary. Click to open larger version.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...1e3-a06a-e3230a43d6cb_graphic.html


[Edited 2014-03-16 19:39:28]

[Edited 2014-03-16 19:44:07]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-16 19:41:14 and read 20107 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 301):

Unless of course this is still an active scenario and the hijacker is scanning the internet regarding the next move.

No - it all just starts getting TOO complex, doesn't it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 19:45:33 and read 19624 times.

About the CVR which was previous discussed, am I correct to say that the recording is analogue and not digital? Hope this Q wasn't discussed before.

Edit: The previous post explained it. Someone posted while I typing this Q. It is digital. If it is digital then I guess all prior audio before 2 hours could be retrieved.

[Edited 2014-03-16 19:48:50]

[Edited 2014-03-16 19:50:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 19:46:29 and read 19679 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 314):
Pretty neat graphic summary. Click to open larger version.

The graphic says, "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark." That data had to go via ACARS, right?

[Edited 2014-03-16 19:47:01]

[Edited 2014-03-16 19:47:46]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 19:46:45 and read 19564 times.

One or two emergency ways to communicate to the outside world, located outside the cockpit, and not subject to being cut off from the cockpit, might be useful.

They could still be disabled, but not easily, and not from from the cockpit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-16 19:47:34 and read 19555 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 312):

I wonder if that may explain some of the erratic flying / altitude extremes. 2nd pilot realizes his mask isnt working or comes back from the toilet and tries to descend, there is a struggle but is overpowered and the PF goes right up to FL450 to make sure the job is done...

If one of them was really on a mission then all it might have taken was a good hit to the side of the head of the other pilot. Much less planning involved, and if the other pilot was knocked out straight away there wouldn't be any verbal evidence on the CVR of a struggle, that's of course if the plane kept flying long enough to write over that part of the CVR... What do you think would be more likely if that was the case, tamper with the other pilot's mask so he blacks out or just hit him over the head and hope it's a good shot. Just a wild guess coming, but I think the experienced Captain might go with the tampering of the oxygen mask theory whereas the younger FO might have just decided to give the Captain his best shot... Let's hope that this aircraft is found and that the FDR / CVR or any survivors can reveal what really happened so MH370 does not remain a mystery forever... A hi-jacking would also mean that any doubts about the 777s safety could be discarded.

[Edited 2014-03-16 19:51:03]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: antskip
Posted 2014-03-16 19:54:29 and read 18730 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 311):
It's not an entirely unfair assumption to make, and even posthumously he is innocent until proven guilty, but that really should not stifle free speech. He had the most seniority, the most hours on the type, the most familiarity with flying in that airspace. He would know exactly what to do, and if the goal was to disappear, he sure as shit pulled it off didn't he?

I agree. The pilot is surely the prime suspect. The whole thing has been moving towards that scenario for the past week. If it was him behind it all, his brilliance may continue to hide much of what happened - even if the plane is found. However, whoever orchestrated the "disappear" job on the plane failed to to a good enough job - and it is now starting to unravel - a tragedy for so many innocent people underwritten by immense evil. I believe in time, adequate knowledge and justice will be gained - unlike a week ago when there was nothing but dead ends.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: jetblueguy22
Posted 2014-03-16 19:54:30 and read 19450 times.

Hi All,

This thread has gotten long so Part 31 has been created. It can be found here MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-P (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation) .

All posts made after the lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.

Regards,
Pat

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 19:59:56 and read 18254 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 257):
Did the aircraft have enough range to fly due south of SriLanka and then onto Somalia? Is that a theory being considered and looked at?

I really don't think so. Seems to me with a range of ~3000 stat miles after the last radar contact that route would leave them close to 500 miles short.

Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934



SoCalGeo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30
Username: aluminumtubing
Posted 2014-03-16 20:04:32 and read 17824 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 304):
No because the masks automatically drop at a specific cabin altitude well before you'd end up hypoxic -- however the oxygen generators don't last that long so it's not that difficult if you're in the cockpit. A few walk around bottles in back but those run out before the pilots supply too.

Fully understand. The O2 canisters typically last approximately 12 minutes per in the cabin. It would take some unusual circumstance which would obviously prevent the masks from dropping. Some sort of intervention. I was just thinking theoretically.


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