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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jetblueguy22
Posted 2014-03-16 19:53:21 and read 61252 times.

Due to length part 30 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 31:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

**********************************************************************************************


**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

***********************************************************************************************


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**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,
Pat

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-16 19:56:13 and read 61335 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 317):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 314):
Pretty neat graphic summary. Click to open larger version.

The graphic says, "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark." That data had to go via ACARS, right?

Yes. Positing that this item is true, the data would have been generated by ACARS and sent with SATCOM.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 19:56:17 and read 61284 times.

If this question was asked, I didn't see it. I have read almost all of the threads.

If there were a portable ELT on board, and the crew triggered it, would it have helped track the plane?

Assuming they could actually get to it, were free to try to use it, and could maybe hold it near a window...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 19:58:55 and read 61174 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
Yes. Positing that this item is true, the data would have been generated by ACARS and sent with SATCOM.

Bringing into question previous statements that ACARS was disabled prior to the transponder shutting down?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: ltbewr
Posted 2014-03-16 20:00:13 and read 61084 times.

One issue that is causing a lot heat from China with this lost aircraft is that the family members in China don't have the bodies of their presumably dead family members so is disrupting their ability to mourn their death. In their culture, as well as with others like Orthodox Judaism it is a necessity to have a body to have a funeral and properly process their loss.
This article I saw Saturday on Yahoo discusses this side issue. This was a serious problem after 9/11 when many bodies were lost in the fires of the collapsed WTC towers.
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-famili...MDNARjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1FJMDQ5XzE-

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 20:00:47 and read 61048 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 3):
Bringing into question previous statements that ACARS was disabled prior to the transponder shutting down?

ACARS via VHF might have been disabled, but the SATCOM channel left available?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 20:01:49 and read 61094 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 257):
Did the aircraft have enough range to fly due south of SriLanka and then onto Somalia? Is that a theory being considered and looked at?

I really don't think so. Seems to me with a range of ~3000 stat miles after the last radar contact that route would leave them close to 500 miles short.

Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934




SoCalGeo

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:11:38]

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:13:01]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: philask
Posted 2014-03-16 20:02:42 and read 60942 times.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 4):

One issue that is causing a lot heat from China with this lost aircraft is that the family members in China don't have the bodies of their presumably dead family members so is disrupting their ability to mourn their death. In their culture, as well as with others like Orthodox Judaism it is a necessity to have a body to have a funeral and properly process their loss.

I'd say that the latest revelations should give them more hope that the passengers are still alive, stating that they're dead at this point (without any evidence) is premature.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 20:04:20 and read 60837 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 3):
Bringing into question previous statements that ACARS was disabled prior to the transponder shutting down?

Indeed. If true then there's a huge contradiction in the data to the public thus far.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-16 20:10:16 and read 60507 times.

Quoting philask (Reply 7):
I'd say that the latest revelations should give them more hope that the passengers are still alive,

What revelations are you referring to?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: imagoagnitio
Posted 2014-03-16 20:10:37 and read 60508 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 6):

I think you are correct, they would have been a bit short, assuming fuel load we are basing most theories on

or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 20:14:21 and read 60288 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

What Tamils? The tigers were wiped out 5 years ago.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: AirIndia
Posted 2014-03-16 20:18:30 and read 60040 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

The LTTE in the past have carried out aerial attacks (unsuccessfully).... so they are heavily scrutinised, virtually impossible to land any plane on tamil stronghold....

especially since

Quoting Tapir (Reply 11):
The tigers were wiped out 5 years ago.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 20:19:10 and read 60408 times.


Sanity Check - 3/17/14 0300Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

3/17/14 0300Z update.
The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
Added primary/secondary Radar discussion
Updated SATCOM Pings section related to recent "it may have landed" comments.
Added comments on cyber-hijack theory.

First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
"We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
The summary at(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large) says: "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to 4 hours after its transponders went dark. NOTE: I think this summary - while good - is dated.
This seems consistent with the SATCOM data being sent by the plane - which would stop if the plane (engines) were shut down.
Opinion: in absence of actual engine data being sent - which has not been reported - this may be just a different way to say what has been said.

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satallite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Way-point Tracks
The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Aircraft Fuel State
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca straight
North west of Malacca straight
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

Conspiracy Theories
There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Some of the more prevalent.
The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor.

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-16 20:48:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: imagoagnitio
Posted 2014-03-16 20:20:17 and read 59947 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 11):

and yet, two days ago the police in Sri Lanka arrested a prominent Tamil activist source http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26577956

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-16 20:21:10 and read 59924 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

Aside from the fact that the LTTE were shut down in 2009, what runway would they control that could be used to refuel a wide body? It's not a large country.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-16 20:22:31 and read 59842 times.

To those willing to crucify the captain let me put some holes in your theory:

Let say for a minute this guy as as cold as ice and prepared to kill 200+ souls in order to prove a point (whatever that may be), he knew that going over malaysian airspace would bring on the jet interceptors, more so if something was amiss with comms or transponders.

In my view is easier to entertain that someone entered the cabin and took the plane and ordered the pilots to make some changes and they crossed the peninsula on PURPOSE, but alas! the guys in command were sleepy (to say the least).
something happened maybe they wanted to incapacitate the culprit by depresurissing the 777 and something went wrong and we got to a helios scenario.

We might never know what happened because that triple 7 is resting in the bottom of the sea thousands of miles from land...

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flyorski
Posted 2014-03-16 20:29:01 and read 59421 times.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 16):
To those willing to crucify the captain let me put some holes in your theory:

Thank you. With a lack of hard evidence I find it disheartening people are so quick to assume the pilot acted in malice. Truth is we simply do not know.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-16 20:29:42 and read 59411 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 14):

I didnt say Tamils got wiped out. What are you trying to say here. MH370 landed in areas controlled by the Tigers? The answer is NO. The war has ended and no secret rebel held area existed in SL for MH370 to land. Regarding the arrest (which is not relevant to aviation matter) please watch Channel 4 - The killing field so that you get a clearer picture why MH370 couldn't have landed there unless of course on the invitation of SL.

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:30:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 20:29:48 and read 59419 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 13):
ACARS data from MH370

Can you update to reflect the quote from the graphic at https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large at the end of the previous part which indicated that "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 20:30:35 and read 59303 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
The graphic says, "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark." That data had to go via ACARS, right?

Yes. Positing that this item is true, the data would have been generated by ACARS and sent with SATCOM

They're not saying the engines were running because they got engine data via ACARS, they're saying if the engines weren't running there wouldn't be any electrical power to ping the satellite.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 20:33:15 and read 59129 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
they would have been a bit short, assuming fuel load we are basing most theories on

or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

I'd be surprised they could get help from the Tamil (if the Tamil even wanted to, which we have not heard) without the Sri Lanka Govt tracking them on radar (the big yellow circle over the whole Island). When I pulled the radar locations from the ICAO web site I paid particular attention to that radar site because I was considering the possibility of an over flight of the island. But the radar for Sri Lanka is on the top of Mt. Pidurutalagala, which from what I can tell is the highest point on the island, which I think might limit the ability to fly thru a shadow from terrain (I'm no radar expert, but as I collected and mapped radar site locations last night I felt that there were a lot that are positioned so that there would not be a full 360 degree view, due to terrain). And there seems to be some overlap of Indian radar over parts of the northern area of the island. You can see the radar site if you change the base map on the live map from National Geographic to Imagery with Labels, and zoom in to the center of that yellow circle... you can turn the yellow circles off with the layer button..

SoCalGeo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 20:34:23 and read 58999 times.

[quote=LTC8K6,reply=2]


If this question was asked, I didn't see it. I have read almost all of the threads.

If there were a portable ELT on board, and the crew triggered it, would it have helped track the plane?

Assuming they could actually get to it, were free to try to use it, and could maybe hold it near a window...

Quote:

One in the survival lit in each slide/raft I believe.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 20:36:26 and read 58899 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20):
They're not saying the engines were running because they got engine data via ACARS, they're saying if the engines weren't running there wouldn't be any electrical power to ping the satellite.

OK, that makes sense. But why four hours instead of the seven hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-16 20:40:37 and read 58604 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 23):
OK, that makes sense. But why four hours instead of the seven hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

I think that it is 7-7.5 hours for the whole flight. The last radar contact by the Pinang radar was at 2:15 AM, 200 miles NW of Penang. The plan flew on until 8:11 AM Malaysia Time. That's pretty cl;ose to 6 hours after loss of radar contact.

SoCalGeo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-16 20:41:44 and read 61086 times.

Quoting flyorski (Reply 17):
he knew that going over malaysian airspace would bring on the jet interceptors,

The SMH reports now that he did some "terrain following" (low altitude flying over land) so maybe he was fully aware of the risks and was trying to avoid triggering radar.

I was in the camp that the pilot should get the benefit of the doubt and mechanical hypotheses come first. After 7 days with no better explanations and a lot of flags from the life of the pilot in command it is inevitable to come round to a belief he is likely the culprit of course it is far from proven but it seems far and away the most straightforward explanation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: solarflyer22
Posted 2014-03-16 20:42:20 and read 60385 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 6):
Did the aircraft have enough range to fly due south of SriLanka and then onto Somalia? Is that a theory being considered and looked at?

I really doubt it. Besides, there are probably only 2 runways in Somalia capable of landing it and I am sure by now US Satellites have snapped pictures. Worse yet, that area is under heavy US maritime surveillance due to piracy. I am sure they would have picked up a lone 777 w/o a transponder and shot at it. They shot at a A300 with a transponder on after all (ouch low blow, I know).

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 16):
incapacitate the culprit by depresurissing the 777 and something went wrong and we got to a helios scenario.

U know thats a distinct possibility and I too thought of a similar scenario. Captain Shah was so experienced he might have tried to THWART an attempted hijacking by programming a route far away from land and trying to disable the attackers via the 45k FL and de-pressurization. Maybe he didn't get his mask on time and it backfired. I mean if you're an experienced pilot and you're trying to thwart someone in the cockpit from a Malaysian 9-11 what else do you do? Go high and go out to sea.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 20:42:33 and read 62328 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 19):
Can you update to reflect the quote from the graphic at https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large at the end of the previous part which indicated that "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark."

I've looked into it a bit more and I believe the graphic is confabulating ACARS data with SATCOM pings.

Edit: Specifically, I believe the graphic is referencing the old data that was leaked suggesting "up to four hours later." That is all prior to the PM's revelation of 0811h last ping during his press conference.

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:45:43]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 20:44:50 and read 61932 times.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 24):
Quoting hivue (Reply 23):OK, that makes sense. But why four hours instead of the seven hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

I think that it is 7-7.5 hours for the whole flight. The last radar contact by the Pinang radar was at 2:15 AM, 200 miles NW of Penang. The plan flew on until 8:11 AM Malaysia Time. That's pretty cl;ose to 6 hours after loss of radar contact.

I should probably rephrase to why four hours instead of the six hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: YWG
Posted 2014-03-16 20:45:41 and read 62172 times.

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned or not, but finding the plane will only be half the mystery.

If someone is smart enough to disable the ACARS and transponder, then odds are they would have thought to pull the cockpit voice recorder, flight data recorder as well as the quick access recorder circuit breakers. It's not hard and has been done before.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 20:46:41 and read 61822 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 27):
I've looked into it a bit more and I believe the graphic is confabulating ACARS data with SATCOM pings.

It seems to me that something has gotten "confabulated."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: PHX Flyer
Posted 2014-03-16 20:48:05 and read 61619 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 23):
But why four hours instead of the seven hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

I have two questions:

1. What's the time interval between the pings?
2. Were the pings recorded in regular intervals up until 8:11, or was there a gap?

If the pings were regular, the aircraft may have been airborne until 8:11.
If there was a gap, it means the engines were shut down, and later - at least briefly - powered up again. The latter scenario would essentially rule out a destruction of the aircraft

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 20:49:45 and read 61682 times.

Quoting YWG (Reply 29):
then odds are they would have thought to pull the cockpit voice recorder

And thereby immortalize all sounds from the flight deck up to that point (given that the CVR is ever recovered)? As others have pointed out a number of times they would just need to leave the CVR running and it would overwrite itself.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-16 20:51:18 and read 61498 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 19):
Can you update to reflect the quote from the graphic at

Done

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 22):
If there were a portable ELT on board, and the crew triggered it, would it have helped track the plane?

I don't know about a portable ELT - but the planes ELT can be triggered by the pilots.
Do you mean an ELT, like in a life raft triggered by the cabin crew? I don't know if that would work - but seems likely if you held it by a windows.

But - no ELT signals have been received so, sadly, it is a mute point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 20:55:37 and read 61039 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 34):
But - no ELT signals have been received so, sadly, it is a mute point.

I know none were heard. I was just wondering if this was a viable way for the crew to possibly communicate distress.

Theoretically, could it work?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 20:56:46 and read 60867 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 28):
I should probably rephrase to why four hours instead of the six hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

I think the confabulation was further confounded by confusing the phrases "data was sent for hours" versus "data was sent for four hours" versus "data was sent four hours." The interwebs are full of each permutation. But I don't think any of it matters because it was all obviated by the 0811h datum.

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:59:12]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-16 20:57:56 and read 61687 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 37):
So the flying into space theory was right after all.

Exactly. How many 777 pilots have actually tried the Coffin corner?!  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: terlanmat68
Posted 2014-03-16 20:59:45 and read 60852 times.

I apologize if this has already been discussed.

I understand that those two arcs are based on the final network ping, plotted using distance from the satellite.

What about the other, earlier network pings? Has distance from the satellite been plotted for all of the pings? I'm thinking that if that is available and there is an assumption of constant aircraft speed it may be possible to estimate how far along those arcs the plane may have traveled.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 21:00:36 and read 60631 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 39):
I think the confabulation was further confounded by confusing

Confusing and confounding confabulation has characterized this whole conundrum.  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: CaliAtenza
Posted 2014-03-16 21:02:04 and read 60975 times.

Well the Israelis seem to think it's intact, and that Iran is somehow involved:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-el-a...rt-iran-likely-involved-in-mh-370/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: JOshu
Posted 2014-03-16 21:04:18 and read 60966 times.

The "Malaysian Insider" is reported that the plane flew as low as "1,500 feet" to avoid radar.

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mh370-flew-...void-detection-says-011918423.html

"Investigators poring over MH370’s flight data had said the plane had flown low and used “terrain masking” as it flew over the Bay of Bengal and headed north towards land, the NST reported."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-16 21:04:33 and read 60254 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 39):
But I don't think any of it matters because it was all obviated by the 0811h datum.

Agreed. I was just wondering if more data was being transmitted via satellite than just hourly stand by pings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-16 21:06:52 and read 60513 times.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 26):
U know thats a distinct possibility and I too thought of a similar scenario. Captain Shah was so experienced he might have tried to THWART an attempted hijacking by programming a route far away from land and trying to disable the attackers via the 45k FL and de-pressurization. Maybe he didn't get his mask on time and it backfired. I mean if you're an experienced pilot and you're trying to thwart someone in the cockpit from a Malaysian 9-11 what else do you do? Go high and go out to sea.

That's actually a fascinating idea and would reconcile several inconsistencies in other theories. Hard to prove though without finding the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 21:10:14 and read 60040 times.

Quoting JOshu (Reply 44):

I said earlier that the claim is confusing.

I doubt very much that they flew as low as 5,000 feet. They'd be burning a lot of fuel flying that low and then regaining altitude.

I think they may have dropped 5,000 feet in altitude.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: JOshu
Posted 2014-03-16 21:11:28 and read 59640 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 47):
I said earlier that the claim is confusing.

Thanks, hard to follow all of this.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-16 21:12:15 and read 60009 times.

Well, if you planned to do the heist of the century by hijacking and flying low and fast between mountains, the super enthuastic and very experienced pilot/instructor/inspector with the simulator at home would be your go-to guy.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 21:12:55 and read 59626 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 38):
I know none were heard. I was just wondering if this was a viable way for the crew to possibly communicate distress.

Theoretically, could it work?

Yes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-16 21:14:20 and read 59587 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 40):
Exactly. How many 777 pilots have actually tried the Coffin corner?!

During certification, a few.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flyorski
Posted 2014-03-16 21:16:43 and read 59651 times.

Sorry if this has been posted before, however from the independent it appears the crew did not ask for more fuel.


"Officials urged reporters not to jump to conclusions on the pilot and co-pilot, who they said had not asked to work together that day, and had not requested additional fuel for the aircraft."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...and-crew-investigated-9195320.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: allrite
Posted 2014-03-16 21:23:59 and read 58790 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 13):
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
• To address the data on a few of these:
• 1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?

It would be convenient for the Malaysian government to blame the increasingly popular opposition, especially if it was the case (and I'm not saying it was) Muslim terrorism. A more outlandish theory would be a government plot to discredit the opposition and bury the evidence deep at sea, with the co-pilot or some other operative taking action against the captain. I'm not suggesting that either are true but I would fear that there may be a desire from some quarters to twist the narrative for domestic purposes and this should be considered when evaluating information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: imagoagnitio
Posted 2014-03-16 21:31:23 and read 58892 times.

OOI, is anyone tracking MH6124, 9M-MUA A330F on FR24 at the moment, shows KUL-DWC, yet it's currently over the Black Sea tracking 290, presuming this is a FR24 error.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: SCQ83
Posted 2014-03-16 21:36:20 and read 58179 times.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 127):
Just because you think he would have crashed into KL or it's not a suicide is illogical thinking. There have been a few very reasonable ideas mentioned over and over why a suicidal/homicidal pilot would fly due south toward Antarctica ....

Quiet the opposite. The data we have, which is scarce, makes pilot suicide the most plausible scenario. Everyone who says suicide doesn't make sense is using illogical reasoning to dismiss it. There is a lot of this going on here ... fascinating when you think about it ...


Absolutely fascinating. The confirmation bias behind some comments that consider impossible of just plain "insane" (as I have read repeatedly), to think this is a suicide is appealing. I assume because a good number of a.net posters are pilots themselves or work in the industry... they do not want to believe this was a suicide. And of course, with so much terrorism this and that and "under attack" information and speculation over the years (specially in some countries), it is more comforting for the mind (and "funnier" to speculate by looking at some of the James Bond theories posted here) to think that some evil-minded terrorists killed +200 people.

Quoting affirmative (Reply 167):
I'm getting fed up with people wasting time trying to get this into another terrorist plot. Sure, if you bought in to the US government propaganda telling you that you are the target because you're the biggest, best and baddest maybe you should start looking into things like GDP and National debt.. If or when the Chinese starts asking for their money back you will know, and there's a possibility that will happen pretty soon.

(Sorry for this OT, I just had to ventilate)

I also find interesting how narrow minded are some comments likely to disregard the suicide. Firstly, by thinking Malaysia as a Western democracy... and the pilot supporting a political party that was just simply defeated (which is far from being the case). Secondly, by thinking MAS as a Western airline. Malaysia Airlines (like Singapore or Emirates) is not just like American or United are to the United States... MH is a prestige project of the Malaysian government... somehow it is part of the government and an obscure incident like this will have direct political involvement. And finally, the PEK flight makes a lot of sense. With more than half of the passengers being Chinese (which is probably the standard for any KUL-PEK flight), that would mean the direct involvement of China pressuring for quick responses from the Malaysian government... which clearly has failed to provide one week after the incident... probably because they just don't like what really happened because of internal politics.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 21:36:44 and read 58566 times.

If you fly high and depressurize, the masks drop, and the pax and crew go nuts. Seems like you wouldn't want that. Plus the F/A's would get on their bottles, which could last a couple of hours.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 21:37:35 and read 58322 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 50):

Looks fine on Flight Aware.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: imagoagnitio
Posted 2014-03-16 21:42:04 and read 58339 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 53):

how strange, saw it on smartphone, now this online http://www.flightradar24.com/MAS6124/2e83e3d

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 21:45:11 and read 57613 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 54):

Pretty weird.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: bcworld
Posted 2014-03-16 21:51:09 and read 57150 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 55):
how strange, saw it on smartphone, now this online http://www.flightradar24.com/MAS6124/2e83e3d

Flight aware is confused. The flight is operating SHJ-AMS.

https://www.google.com/#q=MH6124

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Capt747Ret
Posted 2014-03-16 21:55:19 and read 56712 times.

If 370 had an ELT the force of a land impact would have triggered it. Satellites would have picked it up in a matter of minutes or less and it position would have been known.
Was one onboard? If so, then it probably had a water impact. Being that the ELT would not be accessible to any of the flight crew to disable, we can rule out it being over land.
I really don’t buy the theories that somehow it landed somewhere and hidden. You just don’t land a 777 at some “abandoned” WWII airfield or anywhere else without at least a 6,000 ft hard surface runway and definitely not on some road or highway. Any old abandoned airport would not have an old hanger large enough to accommodate a 777.
I don’t care how “good” the pilot is. Landing at night or even in the early morning, flying a visual approach to a runway that you never landed at, having to nail it with little or no margin of error then make a max effort stop would be very challenging to most any airline pilot.
The northern arc, by many counts, goes right thru some rather primitive countries. Still many of these countries do have radar and an air traffic system even if rudimentary.
At a non-regular serviced airport the arrival of a 777 would be BIG talk, especially if it just suddenly showed up! The word would spread fast.
You would be very hard pressed to find an abandoned airport with a runway that could accommodate an aircraft the size of the 777. You can rule out any type of unimproved or steel mat facility.
As far as I know the largest commercial aircraft to land on steel mats was a Seaboard World DC-8-63CF at a Russian air base in the Kuril Islands in about 1969. BTW, it tore up the mats!
I was told by the Captain that the look on the Russian faces when they opened the door and saw 219 G I’s with weapons was priceless!
The 777 is much bigger and heaver.
A few points:
Flying on one engine will greatly reduce your range as discussed earlier by another. The airframe drag goes up rather quickly. Additionally, on one engine you can’t go as high causing a lot higher full burn due to denser air at a lower altitude.
The altitude gyrations between cruise, FL 450 and FL 230 costs a lot of fuel. If he was flying at FL 350 then he was operating at his best fuel burn. At FL 295 is would not be as economical causing increased burn and reduced range.
Going to FL 450 would also cause a lot higher fuel burn. You would be flying tight into the coffin corner. It is possible that the perpetrator did this then depressurize the cabin. This would cause the oxygen masks to deploy, either manually by him or automatically by the nature of the system. He would be on his mask which is a different system then the pax and having turned off the other pilot’s oxygen he would have enough to outlast the pax.
The pax oxy system is of limited supply with enough to get the A/C down to a breathable altitude. If he stayed at this high altitude for a few minutes, the pax would pass out and then expire. At these higher altitudes useful consciousness in measured in a few seconds. He then could bring the A/C down and repressurize and now he would be the only one onboard alive.
If he flew at a low altitude to avoid the radar his fuel burn would go thru the roof! His range would be cut hugely. There would not be pings lasting as long as they did.
Lastly for tonight, it may be the co-pilot and not the Captain. You just never know about people.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: PHX Flyer
Posted 2014-03-16 21:58:12 and read 56867 times.

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 39):
Well the Israelis seem to think it's intact, and that Iran is somehow involved:

Well, I think he Israelis are right about the pilots' profiles ... while I agree that Captain Shah's FS needed to be examined, I also expect that no incriminating evidence will be found.

On the other hand, it does not make sense at all for the Iranians to get involved in a heist like this at a time, where they are trying to rekindle their relationship with the US. In all earnest, what would tehy want with it? Obviously they cannot use it for air transport, and they can't use it for spare parts, because their ain't not other triple sevens in Iran. And I doubt MH370 was hauling a large chunk of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium from Malaysia to China ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-16 22:02:54 and read 55894 times.

Quoting bcworld (Reply 56):

I didn't post that. Neither FA or FR24 is correct, it seems.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2014-03-16 22:13:54 and read 55068 times.

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 58):

Iran Air is simply trying to modernize their fleet by working around the embargo.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-16 22:16:52 and read 54853 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 13):
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.

Out of anything in the consistently brilliant and much needed summary posts from rcair1- I hope they read and understand this point. Still unsure why a 777 landing somewhere in secret is more likely to people than the wreckage not yet being discovered due to a relatively small team searching thousands of miles of ocean is confusing to me. I suppose a tragic accident where a plane crashes into the sea just isn't "sexy" enough for some people and their need for drama.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: YVRLTN
Posted 2014-03-16 22:20:40 and read 54439 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 42):
That's actually a fascinating idea and would reconcile several inconsistencies in other theories. Hard to prove though without finding the plane

It is. The only difficulty I have is the turning off of the transponder etc leading up to this point. I suppose the hijacker could be pointing a gun at his head making demands, but unless they were experienced pilots themselves, would they really know that the pilots were really doing what they asked in pushing a whole bunch of buttons to get deep in the FMS to turn off the ACARS transmissions and one or the other of them not be able to squawk a quick 7500 while he was at it?

A thought in relation to hijackers getting through the door in the first place. Where is the forward washroom in relation to the cockpit door on the MH 77E? Could someone discreetly take a video of an F/A or someone punching in the code on their phone and bingo, they have access?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: airplanebrain
Posted 2014-03-16 22:41:53 and read 52885 times.

Could the pilot load an alternate flight number into the transponder system while he was over water and away from radar to simulate another airplane? Then he could overfly India with impunity. Perhaps even make it look like he was a cargo flight or private jet? I remember Air Force One doing this a few years ago.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: chrcaremanav
Posted 2014-03-16 23:22:43 and read 49725 times.

Howdy! Iran wanting an aircraft like the 777, They do not need to steal one, They are not a poor country, so if They want some 777, They call Boeing and can order quite and quite of few of Them or buy some used one available or borough some from Companies. So it makes no sense. We all have to wait what will happen and if one day They can recover the aircraft, if They can not We will never know, but we have to stay cautiously positive though. We have to let the Experts working around the clock to solve that mystery or/and tragedy. As a I am a Christian, I am doing some prayers, because I am thinking about the Families anguish and pains and pangs and afflictions of the Flight Crew and Passengers, We should All think about Them. They are very strong I can tell You, because They are still hoping but being realistic, even though some anger and discouragement, I am sure They have very good People helping Them. We have to think also of the Search and Rescue Teams and Their Families too, They are passing some rough time too. I will wait for the outcome and not rely on conspiracies and rumors, but to stay the two feet on the ground and be a Realist. Their is some explanations to this mystery, it will come in due time even if it come in years to come. Take good care All of You and Have a Nice day with Serenity.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2014-03-16 23:23:50 and read 49570 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 61):
Still unsure why a 777 landing somewhere in secret is more likely to people than the wreckage not yet being discovered due to a relatively small team searching thousands of miles of ocean is confusing to me. I suppose a tragic accident where a plane crashes into the sea just isn't "sexy" enough for some people and their need for drama.

I wish we could get away from the condescending drivel on these threads. If you think the pilot is involved, you're a moron. If you ignore what the authorities are saying about it being a deliberate action, then you are a ignorant. If you think it landed in [insert your choice of three letter code here] you are a drama queen.

Do you need to put people who think differently than you into small boxes? Perhaps it's not "drama" but just a real concern for what may have happened?

-Dave

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LandSweetLand
Posted 2014-03-16 23:26:03 and read 49282 times.

Quoting Capt747Ret (Reply 57):
I really don’t buy the theories that somehow it landed somewhere and hidden. You just don’t land a 777 at some “abandoned” WWII airfield or anywhere else without at least a 6,000 ft hard surface runway and definitely not on some road or highway. Any old abandoned airport would not have an old hanger large enough to accommodate a 777.
I don’t care how “good” the pilot is. Landing at night or even in the early morning, flying a visual approach to a runway that you never landed at, having to nail it with little or no margin of error then make a max effort stop would be very challenging to most any airline pilot.

I've been thinking about this for a couple of days, but is a dedicated runway actually necessary (as opposed to just a hard flat 1-2km stretch of land)? (I've been following the threads but haven't seen this addressed. Apologies if it has).

[Edited 2014-03-16 23:27:04]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: seahawk
Posted 2014-03-16 23:27:01 and read 49294 times.

There are probably quite a few old Soviet airbases near the end of the northern route, which offer a runway suitable for a 777 and are mostly abandoned. If the plane landed somewhere it surely was planed by an organisation with some decent resources. I am sure they could even organize a fuel truck and fly the plane off from there. It took nearly a week before the search even looked into that areas. A week is a long time.

The Southern route on the other had is at least partly covered by Australian OTOH radars.

[Edited 2014-03-16 23:38:12]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-16 23:27:06 and read 49412 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 25):
The SMH reports now that he did some "terrain following" (low altitude flying over land) so maybe he was fully aware of the risks and was trying to avoid triggering radar.

I was in the camp that the pilot should get the benefit of the doubt and mechanical hypotheses come first. After 7 days with no better explanations and a lot of flags from the life of the pilot in command it is inevitable to come round to a belief he is likely the culprit of course it is far from proven but it seems far and away the most straightforward explanation.

Dont buy it for a second! are you kidding? terrain following in the middle of the night on a heavy plane , the triple 7 is a great aircraft but its no Panavia Tornado.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 26):
U know thats a distinct possibility and I too thought of a similar scenario. Captain Shah was so experienced he might have tried to THWART an attempted hijacking by programming a route far away from land and trying to disable the attackers via the 45k FL and de-pressurization. Maybe he didn't get his mask on time and it backfired. I mean if you're an experienced pilot and you're trying to thwart someone in the cockpit from a Malaysian 9-11 what else do you do? Go high and go out to sea.

He might have been a hero preventing a real attack, we may never know.

Quoting hivue (Reply 38):
Confusing and confounding confabulation has characterized this whole conundrum.  

Indeed ! LOL

Quoting JOshu (Reply 40):
The "Malaysian Insider" is reported that the plane flew as low as "1,500 feet" to avoid radar.

Complete nonsense, at night flying that low? They must think the Captain is Lando Carlisian.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 51):
I also find interesting how narrow minded are some comments likely to disregard the suicide.

I also find those who blame the captain narrow minded, there were another 200+ persons on that plane.

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 58):
Well, I think he Israelis are right about the pilots' profiles ... while I agree that Captain Shah's FS needed to be examined, I also expect that no incriminating evidence will be found.

Being a data recovery expert myself, they have had a week to check his computer flight sim and data, if they had something solid, they would have said so by now and avoid the PR disaster ...

We are still on square one...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-16 23:32:58 and read 49345 times.

A distinguished aviation writer, Geoffrey Thomas, just 'unloaded' on the Malaysian authorities, whom he accuses of wasting a week investigating the wrong area, despite available evidence that the aeroplane changed course and headed well to the west:-

"GEOFFREY THOMAS: Look, unfortunately we have not been told by the Malaysians in a timely fashion about the shutting off of the ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System), the shutting off of the transponder, the plane going to the west.

Millions of dollars has been wasted, days have been wasted searching in the wrong area. I think this is, without doubt, one of the most botched aircraft investigations in modern history."


http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2014/s3964757.htm

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: RussianJet
Posted 2014-03-16 23:33:07 and read 49172 times.

I don't like the way that the woman on the news (UK, ITV Channel) just now said that the captain was "a self-confessed aviation geek" in such a clearly disparaging tone. What's wrong with that??

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: seahawk
Posted 2014-03-16 23:34:52 and read 48752 times.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 68):
Complete nonsense, at night flying that low? They must think the Captain is Lando Carlisian.

Why not. The plane still has GPS and the pilot could have easily prepared a safe path long before the flight. You could fly the route in a sim as much as you like, even getting the timing good enough to do it in the dark.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-16 23:36:05 and read 48486 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 62):
The only difficulty I have is the turning off of the transponder etc leading up to this point.

Not sure what you're including in your "etc" (it's kind of like Seinfeld's "yadda yadda yadda") but there are a whole bunch of things about that theory that don't make sense. From disabling ACARS to not notifying ATC to then not squawking 7500 to then disabling the transponder and then comms, all while still having time to apparently reprogram the FMS. Then, he didn't "fly out to sea", he flew back over Malaysia. If he was trying to protect civilians on the ground, he didn't do a very good job of it - it was only luck that the hijackers he was protecting everyone against didn't just nosedive into a populated area.

Obviously no theory right now seems to fully make sense given our large gaps in knowledge, but some make less sense than others. The "he wasn't committing suicide, he was protecting everybody!" theory is a nice fantasy, but it fits even the facts we do have about as well as Egypt's interpretation of Egyptair Flight 990. It's a feel-good theory, but there's nothing to back it up.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-16 23:37:34 and read 48642 times.

Going back to rcairs' Sanity Check:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 13):
It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.

At the risk of disrupting the group think... on what basis was fire dismissed again?

Turn back towards Malaysia... maybe they started on that course as soon as trouble became obvious, since they were over water at the time.

Failure to declare emergency... fire in the cockpit of a 777 can occur very suddenly (see Cairo incident) and human self-preservation instincts may temporarily override the need to communicate. (extinguish, aviate, navigate, communicate)

Erratic trajectory and altitude... maybe fighting a cockpit avionics fire would cause the cockpit crew to worry about fighting the fire before aviating. (again: extinguish, aviate, navigate, communicate) Airliners are pretty darn stable flying machines so even without anyone at the controls there would be no crash right away.

Systems disconnected left and right... how do you fight an electrical fire?

Turns showing human intervention... well, yes, if the crew fought the fire and barely won before the aircraft became unworthy of continued flight, you could very well imagine that they would indeed try to maneuver.

Inexplicable trajectory... it's pitch dark on a moonless night over the ocean (the moon set around the same time as the loss of contact). The aircraft's systems may have been so crippled or disabled as to make navigation near impossible.

Waypoints... the sky is full of waypoints. If it hadn't been IGREX and GIVAL it might have been some others. Connecting those dots is not necessarily an indication of a coherent flight plan.

Lack of military radar tracks... maybe it was at a lower altitude over the ocean most of the time.

Lack of debris... the ocean is big.

I know, I'm just speculating like everyone else, but frankly some of the most popular scenarios out there (hijack, heist, suicide) are barely any less contrived than what I am describing here.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: PlanesNTrains
Posted 2014-03-16 23:37:38 and read 48562 times.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 70):
I don't like the way that the woman on the news (UK, ITV Channel) just now said that the captain was "a self-confessed aviation geek" in such a clearly disparaging tone. What's wrong with that??

Aviation geek? That ain't so bad. Try telling someone you're a model railroader. You'll be lucky to ever date again.

-Dave

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-16 23:45:51 and read 48017 times.

Let's assume that the disappearance of the MH 370 was caused by a suicidal pilot who wanted to cover all his tracks and the plane never to be found.

The pilot might have crafted a plan to crash or ditch the plane into the deep parts of the Indian Ocean. However, his plan would be ruined if the ELT were to be activated in the crash or ditching due to the G-forces.

AFAIK, the ELT cannot be de-activated from the cockpit; the ELT switch has only ON, AUTO and TEST positions.

If the pilot wanted to be sure that the ELT (or neither of the ELTs, if there were one both on the upper and lower side of the fuselage) is not activated, could he de-activate them physically? After all, he has several hours time and it is very possible he has killed all the others by depressuring the plane? Or is it very unlikely for an ELT to be activated in a crash or ditching into the water?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: imagoagnitio
Posted 2014-03-16 23:49:21 and read 47827 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 55):

Now it has changed Squawk code to 1000

is that normal passing through German airspace

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hawk21m
Posted 2014-03-17 00:05:06 and read 46986 times.

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

How close would both aircraft need to be ...to be viewed as one object on the primary radar.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: seahawk
Posted 2014-03-17 00:07:55 and read 46666 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
The aircraft's systems may have been so crippled or disabled as to make navigation near impossible.

I guess in those hours they flew on somebody would have had the idea to use the GPS of one of the mobile phones to get a rudimentary position fix.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-17 00:08:27 and read 46502 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 76):

Sounds normal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpo...r_%28aviation%29#Transponder_codes

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: rebr
Posted 2014-03-17 00:11:48 and read 46447 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 76):
Now it has changed Squawk code to 1000

is that normal passing through German airspace

This is just a regular scheduled Cargo flight. Also both Germany and The Netherlands maintain 24/7 Quick Reaction Alert aircraft. They've been scrambled a few times in recent years mostly because of unidentified Russian bombers flying over the north sea.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-17 00:23:20 and read 45596 times.

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 76):
is that normal passing through German airspace

Yes, and not only in Germany. #1000 is our Mode-A code we use for Mode-S correlation. Due to the vast number of aircraft, we were running out of squawk codes, and ORCAM/CCAMS allocation could only help so much, so what we did was use #1000, and then use the Mode-S flightID paramater to correlate the target to our flightplan data.

This solves the problem of using individual sqauwk codes, and having to wait a certain amount of time before being able to use them again

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 00:36:25 and read 44569 times.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 62):
Could someone discreetly take a video of an F/A or someone punching in the code on their phone and bingo, they have access?

What I heard previously couple of threads ago, apparently you need confirmation from inside cockpit after the code is correct. So it had to be F/A requesting to enter, otherwise cockpit wouldn't allow it..unless for some reason they allowed.

[Edited 2014-03-17 00:39:01]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-17 00:39:07 and read 44591 times.

Gents, she is either hidden inside a hanger, or at the bottom of a sea that can reach depths of of to 20,000 feet, which if it is that deep, we've surpassed the range to hear the black box pinging by two miles. With all the resources contributing to the search, and no sign of anything, I'm starting to accept the idea we will never find the aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Unflug
Posted 2014-03-17 00:41:31 and read 44340 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):
I know, I'm just speculating like everyone else, but frankly some of the most popular scenarios out there (hijack, heist, suicide) are barely any less contrived than what I am describing here.

To be honest, I'd rather buy your theory than many of the others floating around. While the facts known so far do point to deliberate action by someone there is no proof and other explanations (like yours) are possible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: macsog6
Posted 2014-03-17 00:42:55 and read 44061 times.

Quoting davidzill (Reply 83):
I'm starting to accept the idea we will never find the aircraft.

Certainly would not be the first time. I think this will be an on-going mystery for a very long time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 00:50:04 and read 43609 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 73):

So why at the point of ATC transfer? "All right, good night" and then the fire starts? Strange things happen in life, of course, but I would not be convinced having no debris not near and not faraway...a lot of human involvement is seen here, the chance of such a perfect storm occurrence because of technics behavior is much lower...

[Edited 2014-03-17 00:53:47]

[Edited 2014-03-17 01:04:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jpetekyxmd80
Posted 2014-03-17 00:50:33 and read 43607 times.

Quoting hawk21m (Reply 77):

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

How close would both aircraft need to be ...to be viewed as one object on the primary radar.

That all sounds pretty good to me. Would explain a lot of the previously unexplainable movements.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 01:01:54 and read 42857 times.

Quoting airplanebrain (Reply 63):

Could the pilot load an alternate flight number into the transponder system while he was over water and away from radar to simulate another airplane? Then he could overfly India with impunity. Perhaps even make it look like he was a cargo flight or private jet? I remember Air Force One doing this a few years ago.

They can certainly load another Mode A code, but they can't make the plane look different. Also, who are you fooling? Two different returns with the same code would look a mite weird. Also, Mode S codes are hardwired into the plane.

Quoting chrcaremanav (Reply 64):
Howdy! Iran wanting an aircraft like the 777, They do not need to steal one, They are not a poor country, so if They want some 777, They call Boeing and can order quite and quite of few of Them or buy some used one available or borough some from Companies. So it makes no sense.

Iran can most definitely not buy a US aircraft due to sanctions. Not sure they can buy a a used one but in any case they wouldn't get support on it.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 70):
I don't like the way that the woman on the news (UK, ITV Channel) just now said that the captain was "a self-confessed aviation geek" in such a clearly disparaging tone. What's wrong with that??

This is what "normal" because people are suspicious and fearful of "different".

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 74):
Quoting RussianJet (Reply 70):
I don't like the way that the woman on the news (UK, ITV Channel) just now said that the captain was "a self-confessed aviation geek" in such a clearly disparaging tone. What's wrong with that??

Aviation geek? That ain't so bad. Try telling someone you're a model railroader. You'll be lucky to ever date again.


  

I'm over it though. If you think I'm weird because I don't like sports and sitting at the pub all night, every night, so be it.

[Edited 2014-03-17 01:09:43]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 01:13:53 and read 41946 times.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 87):

Quoting hawk21m (Reply 77):

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

How close would both aircraft need to be ...to be viewed as one object on the primary radar.

That all sounds pretty good to me. Would explain a lot of the previously unexplainable movements.

The problem with this theory is that both transponders have to be on for TCAS to work. However Mr. Ledgerwood seems to think that if MH370 turns off its transponder SQ68 will not see it (correct) but MH370 will still see SQ68 (incorrect). For TCAS, transponders perform a handshake of sorts.

This does not preclude MH370 following visually and listening in on radio, but things become harder.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: haynflyer
Posted 2014-03-17 01:18:46 and read 41627 times.

Quoting hawk21m (Reply 77):

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

How close would both aircraft need to be ...to be viewed as one object on the primary radar.

In an earlier post of this theory, the author (I believe) pointed out that SQ68 was at 30,000 ft and MH370 was at 29,500. Not sure why that was taken out or if it was a reply by another poster. If true, that would imply that 500 feet is sufficient and truly spooky.

I'm of the feeling that the A/C flew over India shadowing SQ then took a dive into the ocean off the east coast of India in revenge for the death of Osama Bin Laden, whose birthday was March 10th. OSB is supposedly buried at sea somewhere in that area.

Yea, now you've heard all the hairbrained conspiracy theories! Makes more sense than aliens and meteorites!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: EC135
Posted 2014-03-17 01:19:11 and read 41760 times.

I my opinion the disappearance of MH370 is not just some kind suicide by one of the pilots... it is a very very well planned
action by a group of people (not just one or two in the cockpit). The fact that this has happened just around the handover
from Malaysia to Vietnam ATC is exactly the ideal moment to win time for disappearing, to switch off Transponder and
ACARS and reprogramming the FMC is nothing you have to do in case of suicide... this all is - as I said - all a very very
well planned action. The fact that it happened at night under the cover of darkness and the chosen airliner is a 777
(long range) is also planned month or years before. Terrorists in the 21 century do not react from one day to the next. If it
is correct what was mentioned above, that the climb to FL450 was to eliminate the PAX, this would also fit into the picture
of being a well planned terrorist act - just think the are landing on a remote field somewhere in Northern Pakistan for
example - what should they do with 239 Pax walking down the stairs? The risk being detected is much to high. I am pretty
sure they found a possibility to avoide radar or flying over countries not looking that closely to its radar at 3 a.m. and they
safely landed on a field that has being well prepared for the arrival prior to this event - now getting a new ID, maybe new
paint-scheme, e.g. and being converted to a dirty bomb for some upcomming events like the FIFA world championships e.g.
Don't forget - since Osama bin Laden has been killed by the U.S. a lot of people have a lot of anger, they are terrorists but
they are not silly...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: YokoTsuno
Posted 2014-03-17 01:20:33 and read 41357 times.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 70):
I don't like the way that the woman on the news (UK, ITV Channel) just now said that the captain was "a self-confessed aviation geek" in such a clearly disparaging tone. What's wrong with that??

Nothing.

The reason I believe is the impression the media creates that pilots and tech people in general are the smooth, well-dressed, well spoken professional. In case of an event like MH370 a sizeable part of society is 'surprised', to put it gently to see the behaviour of a real average pilot.

It contradicts their impression and the link with terms like 'asocial, weird, and mentally disturbed' behaviour is then just a small step, unfortunately.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: mika
Posted 2014-03-17 01:20:46 and read 41412 times.

Quote:
because I don't like sports and sitting at the pub all night, every night, so be it

I like sitting at the pub AND i'm an aviation geek (enthusiast!)  


Combining the two is even better..

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 01:22:06 and read 41226 times.

Quoting mika (Reply 93):
Quote:
because I don't like sports and sitting at the pub all night, every night, so be it

I like sitting at the pub AND i'm an aviation geek (enthusiast!)  


Combining the two is even better..

Hey, I'm not judging! 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Kiqaboy
Posted 2014-03-17 01:43:09 and read 40074 times.

In case the MH 370 flew under the shadow of SIA 68, and could not use his TCAS on board! He might have used one of these http://images.ecwid.com/images/1553636/59159611.jpg and a laptop with a GPS and so case solved?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jpetekyxmd80
Posted 2014-03-17 01:43:47 and read 39914 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 89):

The problem with this theory is that both transponders have to be on for TCAS to work. However Mr. Ledgerwood seems to think that if MH370 turns off its transponder SQ68 will not see it (correct) but MH370 will still see SQ68 (incorrect). For TCAS, transponders perform a handshake of sorts.

Interesting. That does poke holes in the theory. Could they have turned it on a few quick isolated times to gauge the position of SQ68? Could these also be the blips they were discovered on radar?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hawk21m
Posted 2014-03-17 01:46:27 and read 39519 times.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 87):

That all sounds pretty good to me. Would explain a lot of the previously unexplainable movements.

Exactly...hence how near one needs to shadow a widebody not to be noticed by primary radar.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 89):

This does not preclude MH370 following visually and listening in on radio, but things become harder.
Quoting haynflyer (Reply 90):
I'm of the feeling that the A/C flew over India shadowing SQ then took a dive into the ocean off the east coast of India

why go west then east.

what was the route of SQ......maybe they need to check the point of seperation.

Quoting EC135 (Reply 91):
all a very very
well planned action

True.....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 01:48:10 and read 39312 times.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 96):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 89):

The problem with this theory is that both transponders have to be on for TCAS to work. However Mr. Ledgerwood seems to think that if MH370 turns off its transponder SQ68 will not see it (correct) but MH370 will still see SQ68 (incorrect). For TCAS, transponders perform a handshake of sorts.

Interesting. That does poke holes in the theory. Could they have turned it on a few quick isolated times to gauge the position of SQ68? Could these also be the blips they were discovered on radar?

Nah, I think that makes things too complex. Kigaboy's option is better.

Quoting Kiqaboy (Reply 95):

In case the MH 370 flew under the shadow of SIA 68, and could not use his TCAS on board! He might have used one of these http://images.ecwid.com/images/1553636/59159611.jpg and a laptop with a GPS and so case solved?

Fair point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-17 01:48:46 and read 39274 times.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 60):
Iran Air is simply trying to modernize their fleet by working around the embargo.

...didn't/don't they wet-lease Airbus 320, or am I completely wrong?

In the past (say 2004) they have wet-leased 742, ex-Lufthansa aircraft.


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: asetiadi
Posted 2014-03-17 01:52:00 and read 39188 times.

This plane will never be found unless each and every country in this world send ships to sea and find the plane.

in 21st century, with all the technology that we have, it's very silly to lose a plane undetected due to some money saving for not installing a locator transmitter or live cctv in the cockpit or live blackbox transmitted over the air.

what next? a missing A380.... do we really need to see this happened again. We had AF 447 , Now MH 370.... where are we gonna start implementing a new standard safety features to prevent such thing!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: hawk21m
Posted 2014-03-17 01:55:44 and read 38809 times.

What regime on the route would Hide that the Aircraft is on their land and why.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-17 01:59:48 and read 38674 times.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 96):
Could they have turned it on a few quick isolated times to gauge the position of SQ68?

no, because this will trigger immediate TA or RA alerts for the SQ... And then ATC would also see them.

They could also easily have followed visually behind if it was VMC - the rear end of a 777 is like a christmas tree in the dark of night...... However it was a gamble because if something was coming the other way at F290 they would likely have been spotted if the crews were alert...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-17 02:00:07 and read 38584 times.

Quoting hawk21m (Reply 101):

What regime on the route would Hide that the Aircraft is on their land and why.

The only one possibly crazy enough to do such a thing is North Korea, but as the plane was full of Chinese that's definitely not the case.

So, in reality the aircraft is most likely on bottom of the Indian Ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-17 02:05:30 and read 38252 times.

Quoting hawk21m (Reply 101):
What regime on the route would Hide that the Aircraft is on their land and why.

Letting my mind go along with this theory for a while, I don't think the culprit (presuming this is an organised operation) has to be a regime. It could be some rebel group or a militia (like Hezbollah or whatever).

As to the question 'why?', I still have a nagging feeling that the motive might be related to the cargo. We have no idea what was there because there has been no detailed announcement. We have just been told that there was nothing identified as being hazardous or suspicious, BUT we also know that the cargo of MH370 was not x-rayed before departure, alone among flights departing KUL that night.

That strikes me as equally significant as the timing of the transponder blackout just as the plane was about to enter Vietnamese air space.

So if the objective relates to the cargo, then the plane may not be hidden where it may have landed at all. It might have been broken up already to remove evidence. It could have been refuelled and gone somewhere else as a ghost flight.

We really need more information... so many questions. And so much conflicting information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:08:42 and read 37928 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 103):

you keep saying this, despite the fact that all evidence points to the contrary... Why do you feel this way?

I'm not saying the plane is intact (although i believe it is, but thats just a hunch) but the southern direction seems to be nigh impossible - it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

so.. We have the distance from satellite of last ping... The only logical assumption is that its north, over land.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-17 02:09:15 and read 38060 times.

It looks like so easy to fly 777 without being detected. I think this must have shocked US.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-17 02:11:00 and read 37837 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 42):
Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 26):
U know thats a distinct possibility and I too thought of a similar scenario. Captain Shah was so experienced he might have tried to THWART an attempted hijacking by programming a route far away from land and trying to disable the attackers via the 45k FL and de-pressurization. Maybe he didn't get his mask on time and it backfired. I mean if you're an experienced pilot and you're trying to thwart someone in the cockpit from a Malaysian 9-11 what else do you do? Go high and go out to sea.

That's actually a fascinating idea and would reconcile several inconsistencies in other theories. Hard to prove though without finding the plane.

This is intriguing but wasn't there change(s) in the flight path after the rapid climb to cause hypoxia and disabling of the hijacker(s). Who made these changes? If one or more hijackers survived the manouevre then why didn't they go on to complete their mission?
One possibility I suppose is that Shah was injured before the manouevre and being the only one still alive, succumbed to his injuries subsequently?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Enobar
Posted 2014-03-17 02:11:15 and read 37806 times.

Is it possible to manually deploy the oxygen masks into the cabin?

What if the people on the flight deck deployed the masks and made an announcement to put them on... then 15 minutes later when the oxygen was all gone, accented to 45,000 and depresurised.

That way they'd only have to have the cabin depresurised for a short period of time to asphyxiate the passengers rather than having to fly around with the cabin depressurised for 15 minutes..

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: canadiantree
Posted 2014-03-17 02:13:33 and read 37757 times.

I don't know if this has been posted before but in regards to keeping the passengers calm:

Is it possible that the pilots could execute the turn website so smoothly that the passengers wouldn't notice? with a verrrrrrry slight bank angle... If they executed the turn in 5 minutes I doubt anyone would notice, especially if they deactivate the viewing map.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 02:16:28 and read 37386 times.

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 100):

This plane will never be found unless each and every country in this world send ships to sea and find the plane.

in 21st century, with all the technology that we have, it's very silly to lose a plane undetected due to some money saving for not installing a locator transmitter or live cctv in the cockpit or live blackbox transmitted over the air.

what next? a missing A380.... do we really need to see this happened again. We had AF 447 , Now MH 370.... where are we gonna start implementing a new standard safety features to prevent such thing!

AF447 is not comparable at this point. The aircraft flew on the planned route and thus the wreckage was found within a couple of days.

MH370 is a once in thirty years event. I'm all for safety but some things just aren't worth spending the money for. There are way better investments if you want to improve aviation safety.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 106):
It looks like so easy to fly 777 without being detected. I think this must have shocked US.

Pilots know that a darkened plane at night is hard to find.

You also have to remember that primary radar is not so easily fooled, but some countries have more comprehensive coverage than otehrs.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Luxair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:17:25 and read 37562 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 106):

Not only the US is "shocked" believe me. I could name a few other nations who have actually sleepless nights!!!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-17 02:19:27 and read 37165 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 105):
you keep saying this, despite the fact that all evidence points to the contrary... Why do you feel this way?

I'm not saying the plane is intact (although i believe it is, but thats just a hunch) but the southern direction seems to be nigh impossible - it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

so.. We have the distance from satellite of last ping... The only logical assumption is that its north, over land.

What evidence? We don't know where it is, we don't know who did it, we don't know why it was done. We know almost nothing. You somehow assume a pilot wouldn't fly an airliner into the Ocean. Why is that?

Southern route makes perfect sense. In middle of Ocean you have hardly any radar coverage, so flying a 777 there without getting noticed should be easy. Also if you wanted to crash the plane into as remote, difficult to find location as possible somewhere in Indian Ocean would be perfect place for just that.

Pilot / other crew member suicides have happened before. It's a lot more credible theory than anything else out there IMO. Maybe the hijacker just felt ashamed / had an insurance, thus wanted to hide all the evidence about his actions.

Someone stealing a commercial jetliner full of pax & hiding it for some further use / stealing its cargo has never happened. I can't see why any government would want to get involved in such stuff. Makes no sense.

[Edited 2014-03-17 02:23:07]

[Edited 2014-03-17 02:24:18]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-17 02:19:44 and read 37148 times.

Quoting hawk21m (Reply 97):

Has anyone with knowledge checked if those type of questions have been asked in the Technical/Operations fórum before this event?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-17 02:20:01 and read 37177 times.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 68):
I also find those who blame the captain narrow minded, there were another 200 persons on that plane.

Respectfully, I don't think you understand the definition of being narrow-minded. It would be narrow-minded for one to dismiss the theory of pilot suicide just because it doesn't fit one's own views.

It's one of many plausible scenarios and the one I've been leaning towards. Because, quite frankly, there's ample precedent and it's one of the simplest.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 16):
To those willing to crucify the captain let me put some holes in your theory:

Let say for a minute this guy as as cold as ice and prepared to kill 200 souls in order to prove a point (whatever that may be), he knew that going over malaysian airspace would bring on the jet interceptors, more so if something was amiss with comms or transponders.

In my view is easier to entertain that someone entered the cabin and took the plane and ordered the pilots to make some changes and they crossed the peninsula on PURPOSE, but alas! the guys in command were sleepy (to say the least).

You're saying it's unreasonable for a pilot to turn back and cross Malaysian airspace due to the risk of being intercepted... but it's somehow not unreasonable for a hijacker to turn back and cross Malaysian airspace despite the risk of being intercepted? I don't follow and don't see the holes you referred to.

I'm not saying your scenario isn't plausible.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 75):
Or is it very unlikely for an ELT to be activated in a crash or ditching into the water?

I'd like to hear more on this topic as well. Apparently, older generation ELTs were very unreliable with many false alarms and activating in only 12% of crashes (per NASA). But as far as I'm aware, these were prior to 1999 or thereabouts. So how reliable are newer ones? It doesn't seem they're designed to survive violent impacts such as CFIT. AF 447's ELT apparently didn't activate as no transmission was detected by the satellites and I don't believe the the ELT activated in the Hudson ditching either.

Quoting EC135 (Reply 91):
I my opinion the disappearance of MH370 is not just some kind suicide by one of the pilots... it is a very very well planned action by a group of people (not just one or two in the cockpit).

Entirely possible, sure. But keep in mind you're making arguments for a very complicated scenario over a very simple one.

Your points:

- this has happened just around the handover from Malaysia to Vietnam ATC is exactly the ideal moment
- it happened at night under the cover of darkness and the chosen airliner is a 777 (long range)
- the climb to FL450 was to eliminate the PAX, this would also fit into the picture of being a well planned

Perhaps difficult to plan for a terrorist - yet basically non-issues for one of the pilots. The terrorists would also have to deal with other issues, such as breaking into the cockpit, dealing with two pilots without emergency being broadcast, etc, etc... then you add a myriad of other complexities, such as landing on a remote field, getting a new ID or repaint, dirty bomb, etc.

- to switch off Transponder and ACARS and reprogramming the FMC is nothing you have to do in case of suicide

It is if you're not wanting to be found. And keep in mind... pulling the circuit breakers to the FDR and CVR is "nothing you have to do in case of suicide" as well. Yet it apparently happened in the SilkAir crash.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 104):
BUT we also know that the cargo of MH370 was not x-rayed before departure, alone among flights departing KUL that night.

I believe it was stated in the press conference yesterday that all cargo was screened. He didn't seem very comfortable or confident while answering the question though. Would be interesting to know what all was on board.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 105):
you keep saying this, despite the fact that all evidence points to the contrary... Why do you feel this way?

What evidence points to the contrary? There is absolutely none.

[Edited 2014-03-17 02:27:43]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Kiqaboy
Posted 2014-03-17 02:20:33 and read 37067 times.

Starlionblue lets say they had a laptop with a GPS receiver, a ADS-B receiver and the proper application to see all the info they would get from the area they were flying! Will the Faraday Cage effect, affect the radio waves to get in to all the receivers they might have on board?

btw, is there any FlightRadar24 experts here that can help me with my theory of using the FR24 stuff to have a remote flying tracking device in the aircraft or in this case in the cockpit, and track other flying aircraft with transponders on around you?

kind regards
KiqaBoy

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: fiscal
Posted 2014-03-17 02:23:13 and read 36864 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 75):
Let's assume that the disappearance of the MH 370 was caused by a suicidal pilot who wanted to cover all his tracks and the plane never to be found.

Problem is that that does not fit the usual murder suicide profiles. Most of those want to go out in a blaze of glory, before killing themselves to get some infamy. Firstly to murder someone, or in this case 200+ would need someone with severe mental issues. These issues would have been manifested in their behaviour for quite a while, and people around them would notice. You do not go from being a veteran pilot one day to a mass murderer the next.

If you just want to disappear with no trace, you go on a trip and don't come back.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: chaseus1
Posted 2014-03-17 02:23:26 and read 36899 times.

Since the article of a shoe bomb was posted... could the plane have been turned back for Malaysia for a 9/11 style attack... then a struggle ensued (while plane flew eratically), shoe bomb goes off putting hole in plane, or a stress crack... causing a Helios level depressurization, and plane flies off on last heading set in Autopilot....

[Edited 2014-03-17 02:24:51]

I just cant get past the similarities to the 9/11 attacks at the start of this.


[Edited 2014-03-17 02:25:30]

[Edited 2014-03-17 02:26:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:25:32 and read 36798 times.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 104):

I'm more of the opinion that the plane was worth more.

it's long range would make it a perfect weapon... And if it has been hijacked and landed in one of the -Stan countries, its been flown avoiding radar. Shadowing SQ68 seems most likely possible way.

if the plane then landed out of a radar region, it could take off again, and pull the same trick, following other flights to Europe, or whichever country is chosen.

literally, nowhere within the max range of a light 777 would be safe.

It sounds like sci fi fantasy, but the fact is it's looking increasingly likely- this level of sophistication is unprecedented.

can you imagine if, shadowing a flight to London by night, a plane where to then ram another whilst overflying London on approach to Heathrow? Or Paris? The devastation of two jets crashing at once over a civilian area would be beyond horrendous.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LandSweetLand
Posted 2014-03-17 02:26:07 and read 36627 times.

Quoting mika (Reply 93):
I like sitting at the pub AND i'm an aviation geek (enthusiast!)  

Should ryanair be careful?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: aw70
Posted 2014-03-17 02:28:15 and read 36563 times.

Just to try and put one particular theory to rest:

Chaps, there is *zero* reason for Iran, of all countries, to be involved in this. Zero. Others might have reasons for this: in particular, organisations that are not nation-state level players. But not the government of Iran. Not really. Actually, I would argue they would have tried to put a stop to any such thing happening, if they had heard of it. Here is a step-by-step of why:

- First and foremost: right now, they have far too much to lose by being even tangentially involved in something like this. With their current fairly successful tactic of slowly but surely moving towards being a nuclear power they stand a good chance of actually making it into the powerfully boy’s club over time. In the fairly close future, actually. The very last thing they need right now, just before achieving this long-term goal, would be any sort of involvement in an atrocity that causes planet-wide revulsion, leading to a crack-down on them.

- If they really, really wanted to sponsor some act of terror that uses a widebody a/c as means of strike: well, they already have some a/c like that available. Plenty, actually. Take the old 747s they just retired, and that are now standing around in Iran. One of these could no doubt be made flyable for a „special occasion“, if that was desired. (but see above: such a strike makes no sense at all from their perspective - I’m saying this here just for the sake of argument)

- It also makes zero sense to abduct an a/c for a terror strike that has not happened yet. A terror act involving MH370 might have stood some chance if the a/c was re-fuelled and used to strike within, say, 48 hours, while everyone was still busy combing the Gulf of Thailand for life rafts. But now? For the next months until MH370 is found, every extra blip on ATC screens will send paranoia soaring. The Iranians would have been aware of that - if you plan an operation this well, you also notice this aspect. If they had wanted to strike somewhere with a widebody, much better to use one of their old parked 747s, and strike out of the blue.

- The presence of two Iranians with stolen passports on the flight is more an indicator of the government of Iran *not* being involved, than anything else. Sure, their secret services might not be the most sophisticated players. But doing it this way (read: in such a bloody obvious way that the two might have as well worn „Iranian Secret Service Special Ops“ T-Shirts when boarding) would be so unbelievably amateurish that it would really, really strain credulity to assume these guys had anything to do with it. Especially as the remainder of the operation was apparently not really done in an amateurish fashion at all.

- And finally, the angle of Malaysia being a Muslim country. Sure, Iran is Shiite, and Malaysia not. But still. Committing such an atrocity against one of the few comparatively successful Muslim states on the planet makes little sense for Iran. Especially as Malaysia has, by and large, not done anything major to antagonise the Iranians. Which stands in stark contrast to many other Muslim countries out there. Taking it out on these guys would be very strange indeed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 02:30:32 and read 36323 times.

Quoting Kiqaboy (Reply 115):

I think the theory of dedicated USB modem to track FR by shadowing aircraft is easily checked with satellite logs which would provide the band.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-17 02:32:15 and read 36212 times.

Quoting fiscal (Reply 116):

If you just want to disappear with no trace, you go on a trip and don't come back.

that is what he did.
he didn't want to only kill himself. He wanted to cause problems for Malaysian leadership, and he succeeded.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-17 02:32:22 and read 36157 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 114):
the ELT activated in the Hudson ditching either.

I'd hazard a guess and say that the g-forces while ditching on the hudson didn't fit in with an ELT trigger... I've seen some utterly Sh*t hard landings requiring a touch and go to resolve, and the ELT didn't trigger on those occasions. I don't know what the G limit is for triggering...

As for AF447 one could assume that not much remained topside for very long. And COSPAS/SARSAT detection isn't instantaneous if I recall correctly, takes a little time - not hugely but not instant either...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-17 02:32:29 and read 36195 times.

Today's press conference now starting ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-17 02:32:47 and read 36320 times.

Quoting canadiantree (Reply 109):

That's not needed. A 360 degrees, standard rate turn takes 2 minutes to accomplish, faster aircraft like our airliners use half rate turns (i.e. 4 minutes for a full turn). And this is under normal circumstances.

As a passenger I noticed turns only when I looked outside!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROT_%28aviation%29


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:34:05 and read 36045 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 114):
Quoting pvjin (Reply 112):

granted, there is no single piece of evidence that confirms what has been said... But if you collate all the little bits and put them together, a picture does emerge.

and I'm afraid that suicide is extremely unlikely.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Luxair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:35:37 and read 36213 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 118):

I've mentioned the exact same theorie before and I couldn't agree more! Maybe crashing the plane in The Hague due to the world top security meeting on 23-24 march? (Obama and many top leaders will be present at the convention)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: dragon-wings
Posted 2014-03-17 02:35:40 and read 36128 times.

Some of these scenarios could be made into a hit movie! I mean could you imagine if the plane was flown undetected to a remote airfield and hidden even from spy satellites?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-17 02:36:01 and read 36324 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 118):
It sounds like sci fi fantasy, but the fact is it's looking increasingly likely

It is absolutely not looking increasingly likely. People are praying that it has happened so they can get their terror threat fix.
A 777 shadowed another plane and landed to be turned into a missile? People need to check themselves. There is NO EVIDENCE that this is even remotely true.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Luxair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:38:43 and read 35885 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 129):

Don't get excited it's only speculative so no need to get checked by anybody 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-17 02:39:12 and read 35875 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 114):
I believe it was stated in the press conference yesterday that all cargo was screened. He didn't seem very comfortable or confident while answering the question though. Would be interesting to know what all was on board.

Yes, this is a good example of the conflicting information we have been receiving.

I noticed his sheepishly hesitant manner in answering the question too.

I would have more confidence in his answer if we had not had a recent history of statements being corrected or having been shown by others to be wrong in the days following other previous statements at the press conferences.

From what I have seen the WSJ (despite its shortcomings) has been a more reliable source of information than the official press conferences, but that is another issue that is not central to finding the plane at this stage.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-17 02:39:14 and read 35799 times.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 124):
Today's press conference now starting ...

Link please?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-17 02:41:05 and read 35715 times.

Press conference at http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:41:55 and read 35721 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 129):

absolutely agree.

but then, if you said four planes were going to stolen and flown into various high profile buildings on American soil in 2001, i too would have said you need to check yourself.

and, also, can we stop this evidence based stuff? This isn't a scientific research document up for peer review, its speculation...
maybe you need to come to peace with the fact that right now, thats all we can do..

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-17 02:42:03 and read 35711 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 129):
It is absolutely not looking increasingly likely. People are praying that it has happened so they can get their terror threat fix.

A 777 shadowed another plane and landed to be turned into a missile? People need to check themselves. There is NO EVIDENCE that this is even remotely true.

And before 911 there was no evidence that terrorists would act the way they did. Which is not to say I disagree with the likelihood of pilot suicide as one of the few sensible conclusions.

Today's press conference is just another rehash of the SAR assets deployed and a repeat of the usual statements. While sincere it seems they're unwilling to reveal anything else so far.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-17 02:42:15 and read 35585 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 126):
granted, there is no single piece of evidence that confirms what has been said... But if you collate all the little bits and put them together, a picture does emerge.

and I'm afraid that suicide is extremely unlikely.

Why is it unlikely, but someone flying the aircraft into a secret location to later use it as a weapon of mass destruction isn't?

Why even bother to do that when you can buy some old plane or just build bunch of bombs and do whatever you were planning to do? That would take a lot less effort.

An act of a random "madman" or two is the most likely theory to me. But of course people tend to like complicated conspiracy stuff.

[Edited 2014-03-17 02:44:57]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 02:45:32 and read 35383 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 114):
Respectfully, I don't think you understand the definition of being narrow-minded. It would be narrow-minded for one to dismiss the theory of pilot suicide just because it doesn't fit one's own views.

OK, lets not outright dismiss the possibility. There is after all several known precedents.
However, in each case there is a catalogue of clues that hint towards the mindset of the pilot. Most revolve around severe financial distress, their world collapsing in on them. One was facing investigation of sexual misconduct and dismissal with all the shame that would bring. Recently, a pilot with known psychological issues was told to continue flying. His Embraer 190 then nose dived into the ground with the CVR picking up the co-pilot battering on the cockpit door.

So far, there is absolutely no evidence what-so-ever that either of the pilots on MH370 were in any financial, emotional or other stress. On the contrary, the Captain seems to have adored his career and was living the dream. The Co-pilot appears to have been similar.

In short, neither of these pilots with known information currently fit the bill for being suicidal.

So, I would so it is possible, but highly improbable.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 02:45:33 and read 35375 times.

Quoting Kiqaboy (Reply 115):

Starlionblue lets say they had a laptop with a GPS receiver, a ADS-B receiver and the proper application to see all the info they would get from the area they were flying! Will the Faraday Cage effect, affect the radio waves to get in to all the receivers they might have on board?

I can't be sure but I don't think so. You might have to hold it close to the window.

Quoting Kiqaboy (Reply 115):
btw, is there any FlightRadar24 experts here that can help me with my theory of using the FR24 stuff to have a remote flying tracking device in the aircraft or in this case in the cockpit, and track other flying aircraft with transponders on around you?

As mentioned above this would leave a trail in satellite connection logs.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-17 02:50:38 and read 34889 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 134):

Woah there. You need to work out what it is you are saying. You are saying that the dreamworld scenarios you are writing here are "increasingly likely". They are absolutely, by definition, NOT increasingly likely.

I am not saying they are impossible, they are improbable at best. People stating that this sort of stuff is "likely" is misleading to people who want to read about facts and speculation based on fact.

I will give you that it could reasonably be assumed MH370 shadowed another plane (I believe that this is stupidly unlikely, but that's your prerogative to believe it) but to start bringing in serious calls to consider "weaponising" a plane, and talking about Iran doing it because "hur der dey're bad guys" is I believe, truly irresponsible.

Remember that people still do not know the fate of real people with real families (and I didn't want to bring this up again but I know/knew one of them).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 02:51:12 and read 34846 times.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 136):

in my opinion, there's too much planning involved here for a suicide- why not just point the nose down and stick in the south china sea? Introduce variables to your end goal and at each variable you risk failure.

in that sense, suicide can be ruled out due to risk of failure. Furthermore, all reports about the pilot seem to indicate the contrary.

as to why steal a passenger jet to create terror, rather than just plant a bomb... Well, the answer is in the question... Create terror.

crashing a single jet with an old antonov or bomb would make things look bad for a one off... Steal a passenger jet, of a reputable airline and take out another and all of a sudden no flight is safe.

and thats the point of terror- its not to kill 239 people, its to terrorise the masses.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-17 02:52:28 and read 34618 times.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 133):

Thanks!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: YokoTsuno
Posted 2014-03-17 02:52:31 and read 34788 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 129):
There is NO EVIDENCE that this is even remotely true.

Don't get worked up, many here agree with you. It's just that A.net isn't the right place for party poopers .

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: aljrooney
Posted 2014-03-17 02:55:14 and read 34572 times.

An interesting link using cell phone analogies on the Inmarsat satellite system that may help clarify things for non-tech people.

http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2014/03/15/understanding-satellite-pings

Hope this is helpful.

Cheers,

Alan

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-17 02:56:45 and read 34455 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 118):
it's long range would make it a perfect weapon...

A longhaul plane is not needed. There is nothing more dangerous than a fully fueled plane sitting in JFK, EWR, DCA or IAD, with a three minutes flight plan. Bang.

If it really flew from the Middle East to the US or Israel or wherever else, this would give ample warning. As a bonus, the tanks would be more or less empty when arriving at the target...


My assumption:

The ICAO assigns the hex codes for individual aircraft. 9M-MRO's hex code is known, and to get a new one in order to pretend another airplane they would first need to give ICAO a call. At this moment, their cover could very well be blown. This means 9M-MRO can't be readily used for any attack. Except they would exchange the hex code with the help of a shady 3rd-world airline.


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 02:56:52 and read 34412 times.

The weak point of shadow theory for me is the moment of separation. I don't think hijackers were that lucky to slip through several countries surveillance. Once - maybe, few times - too lucky. Also to land it in any jurisdiction means a lot of risk to be discovered.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-17 02:59:18 and read 34254 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 144):
to get a new one in order to pretend another airplane they would first need to give ICAO a call. At this moment, their cover could very well be blown. This means

Any capable person with the requisite hardware can insert *any* 24bit/hex code. One doesn't need to ask ICAO to make a change. They need to ask ICAO for a new *legitimate* code...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-17 03:00:56 and read 34251 times.

From the press conference, apparently the last "goodnight" communication was made by the FO.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 126):
granted, there is no single piece of evidence that confirms what has been said... But if you collate all the little bits and put them together, a picture does emerge.

Not sure I understand. Nothing of what has been said thus far would make a suicide scenario any less likely.

[Edited 2014-03-17 03:02:21]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 03:02:32 and read 34020 times.

They were wrong about ACARS being turned off before the transponder! They just know that it made a transmission at 0107L and did not make one at 0137L, but last contact was 0119L (according to the presser). This one journalist REALLY gave it to them for misleading people two days in a row!

What morons!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-17 03:03:15 and read 33997 times.

Incredibly they have not yet found out who said "good night". The journalist who asked was given the answer "ongoing investigation". Why is no one asking what the families of the pilots say to it? I mean, its totally unbelievable that they should not have identified it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 03:03:19 and read 33839 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 139):

erm..at which point did i mention Iran?

when did i mention 'bad guys'?

and at which point, despite me repeatedly stating that the outcome of the passengers fate is still unknown, have i been offensive to the families?

I'd say that affirming the plane was at the bottom of the ocean was more offensive.

The fact is that this level of planning, in my opinion, denotes an ability not seen before- this in turn suggests an end point previously unknown.

Quoting YokoTsuno (Reply 142):

party? Eh?

look, feel free to disgree, but please do not imply my opinions are imbecilic. The irony there is beyond humour.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-17 03:03:50 and read 34038 times.

One thing from the news conference, it seems the co-pilot was the one verablly signing off before the plane disappeared.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: thunderboltdrgn
Posted 2014-03-17 03:07:18 and read 33960 times.

According to the Guardian FBI and Interpol have been involved since day 1:

"The FBI and Interpol have been involved in the investigation from day one, Hishammuddin revealed. "

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blo...tes#block-5326c275e4b03930b1293731

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:08:03 and read 33702 times.

Well the press conference said,

last cockpit communications 1:19 (co-pilot)

1:07 last acars transmission (supposed to transmit 30 minutes later) and transponder was 17 minutes later or something? and ACARS could have been knocked out at the same time as the transponder.

So the statements that they knew for sure it was before the last cockpit communication is not accurate.

And the statement that one was disabled before the other is also not true.

And technically the transponder could have been disabled first then ACARS or both at the same time. (Hijacking or electrical) So the hijackers are no longer insane for turning off ACARS first and an electrical problem could have knocked out both (The info was the wrong way around).

Basically it is highly probable that something happened after the last radio call that we don't know about.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:10:16 and read 33428 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 148):

They were wrong about ACARS being turned off before the transponder! They just know that it made a transmission at 0107L and did not make one at 0137L, but last contact was 0119L (according to the presser). This one journalist REALLY gave it to them for misleading people two days in a row!

What morons!

I literally can't believe how everything was saying it was deliberate and they knew for certain. They technically knew nothing and were assuming some pretty big things which don't make any sense.

Not to mention it seems like they are not coordinating effectively with cellphone providers.

And oh the news reporters are having a field day.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-17 03:10:47 and read 33398 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 140):

Why wait this long? Every single day they wait will increase the risks of getting caught, if someone planned to use the plane in a terrorist attack it would have happened already.

Suicides can be well planned, if the hijacker wanted his family to get insurance money / just felt ashamed of his actions he would want to hide the aircraft as well as possible. If it's in middle of Indian Ocean it's possible nothing will be found any time soon.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-17 03:12:55 and read 33257 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 154):
I literally can't believe how everything was saying it was deliberate and they knew for certain. They technically knew nothing and were assuming some pretty big things which don't make any sense.

Not to mention it seems like they are not coordinating effectively with cellphone providers.

And oh the news reporters are having a field day.

Indeed, today's press conference is a mess of contradiction and obfuscation. This has thrown the sequence of events after 1 am into confusion. As to the cellphones, how many weeks does it take to collate numbers and ask service providers.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: CX Flyboy
Posted 2014-03-17 03:13:15 and read 33201 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 140):
in my opinion, there's too much planning involved here for a suicide- why not just point the nose down and stick in the south china sea? Introduce variables to your end goal and at each variable you risk failure.

If you were going to kill yourself, wouldn't it be cool to do it in a memorable way thats going to create a mystery and one that ensures your place in history? Just pointing it straight down into the sea, now wheres the fun in that?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-17 03:16:43 and read 32875 times.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 151):

Yes. Now they are telling FO signed off..Everyday, same facts with different version.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: sejtam
Posted 2014-03-17 03:19:41 and read 32715 times.

So here is a question the wifey asked:

Who (country, organization, etc) would profit from the fact that this draws the world's attention (and thus away from other happenings)?

Syria
Russia/Ukraine (crimea)?

others?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 03:20:02 and read 32607 times.

Quoting CX Flyboy (Reply 158):

i can see what you're saying, but i just can't imagine one of the two on flight deck flipping out to those levels- or being audacious enough to attempt it this way- or taking the rest of the passengers and crew with them... But then, i didn't know them personally.

i could be wrong... I hope I'm not.

I'm still hoping they're somewhere in Uzbekistan holding passengers as hostages and all still alive.

thats the good thing about an open forum- we can postulate and disagree, without resorting to intolerance.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-17 03:21:00 and read 32513 times.

Quoting CX Flyboy (Reply 158):
If you were going to kill yourself, wouldn't it be cool to do it in a memorable way thats going to create a mystery and one that ensures your place in history? Just pointing it straight down into the sea, now wheres the fun in that?

Indeed. If the hijacker was one of the pilots he could have also had some final fun by trying all kinds of weird maneuvers with the 777 before crashing it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 03:21:09 and read 32439 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 159):
Show some class. Gutter language belongs there.

The rules of the forum allow for such things in proper context. Implying that word choice says anything about class is an antiquated concept that belongs in the past. Your post is off-topic, and now so is this one.

G'day.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-17 03:21:27 and read 32511 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 153):
last cockpit communications 1:19 (co-pilot)

Identification still to be confirmed. They said initially they thought it was the co-pilot, but its not sure yet (again, what is the reaction of the pilot´s families when hearing the recording which was made - surprisingly no journalist asked that!)

Quoting tomlee (Reply 153):
1:07 last acars transmission (supposed to transmit 30 minutes later) and transponder was 17 minutes later or something? and ACARS could have been knocked out at the same time as the transponder.

So the statements that they knew for sure it was before the last cockpit communication is not accurate.

Right, they now said they still dont know (wonder why it takes so long to find out if it was the hen or the egg which came first).

Quoting tomlee (Reply 153):
Basically it is highly probable that something happened after the last radio call that we don't know about.

After this press conference I think so too. A sudden event after saying good night. A structural failure is becoming more likely again.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 154):
I literally can't believe how everything was saying it was deliberate and they knew for certain. They technically knew nothing and were assuming some pretty big things which don't make any sense.

And now they say speculations dont help.
Sum-up:
Half of what they indicated yesterday in the direction of deliberate action on board they took back today.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 03:21:41 and read 32439 times.

Hey, come on, those guys are under intense stress having to officially report in front of whole world their findings in this bizarre case. They have also to keep the balance between information to share and information to be held for investigation purposes. Also this is not a Hollywood movie with polished narrative, this is live event. I wouldn't blame them right away so harshly ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-17 03:23:07 and read 32423 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 160):
Yes. Now they are telling FO signed off..Everyday, same facts with different version.

... which is why I am turning to Reuters and the WSJ - and yes, even Flying with Fish - for information that is more reliable than these press conferences.

Well, to clarify... I guess time will tell if they are more reliable, but at least they are more consistent!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: dragon-wings
Posted 2014-03-17 03:28:44 and read 31862 times.

Quoting na (Reply 166):
After this press conference I think so too. A sudden event after saying good night. A structural failure is becoming more likely again.

Do you remember the pro golfer Payne Stewart? His Learjet lost cabin pressure, everyone onboard were incapacitated due to lack of oxygen and the jet flew for hours before crashing. I think something like this could of happened the MH370.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 03:30:37 and read 31655 times.

Quoting dragon-wings (Reply 169):
Do you remember the pro golfer Payne Stewart? His Learjet lost cabin pressure, everyone onboard were incapacitated due to lack of oxygen and the jet flew for hours before crashing. I think something like this could of happened the MH370.

Again and again and again: No. That does not explain the transponder being off.

The 777 is pretty sophisticated and would not remain silent in such a situation. It would alert the crew in plenty of time.

Sorry if I sound ratty, but after 31 threads and the Payne Stewart or Helias ghost flight getting suggested as possible explanations 3 or 4 times per thread, it is getting very old!

[Edited 2014-03-17 03:32:32]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-17 03:32:09 and read 31572 times.

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/03/vanishing-plane/

Interesting read.

Thoughts please?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:33:55 and read 31349 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 167):
Hey, come on, those guys are under intense stress having to officially report in front of whole world their findings in this bizarre case. They have also to keep the balance between information to share and information to be held for investigation purposes. Also this is not a Hollywood movie with polished narrative, this is live event. I wouldn't blame them right away so harshly ...

Yeah when they say they must wait and I wait and say something for days at a time and make some pretty bold claims like (ACARS was deliberately disabled before the last radio call when it was just the last expected transmission for the next 30 minutes, they could really have just said that)

I took their word over the clearly logical and technical evidence to the contrary on the assumption they knew something we didn't.

I know it is stressful for them but at least in the Air France case they had the mindset to release the ACARS data which technically is public knowledge anyway as anyone can have a VHF ACARS receiver. (In this case it is a bunch of normal, non-sensitive, transmitted in clear text info so why does it even matter if they release it or not) If I had a family member on that flight I probable wouldn't be as calm right now and I do have family living in Malaysia. (Can't quite imagine what the family members following the press conferences are thinking right now)

Now that being said they are still more "trusted" than a twitter account and I'll wait. With it in China/Australia's field now hopefully they find something and it doesn't turn out the sat modem logs are delayed or totally inaccurate and it turns out the plane really was in the original search area (that would be really bad for Malaysia's reputation).

Quoting garpd (Reply 170):
Again and again and again: No. That does not explain the transponder being off.

The 777 is pretty sophisticated and would not remain silent in such a situation. It would alert the crew in plenty of time.

ACARS and the transponder could have been knocked out at the same time due to an electrical problem caused by something. (That being said it is also equally as possible for someone deliberate to turn off both at the same time as well)

[Edited 2014-03-17 03:38:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:36:49 and read 31002 times.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 171):

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/03/vanishing-plane/

Interesting read.

Thoughts please?

He basically says the northern route would either require a government or some other party to pull off or absolute total incompetence by everyone who is supposed to have radar coverage. (Which is unlikely)

Or, it is in the southern area due to any number of far more plausible causes (hijacking, suicide, technical problem)

Makes sense in general. (Alternatively maybe watching radar is boring and 99% of radar operators in the military are asleep...)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-17 03:38:15 and read 30889 times.

Another interesting read,

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

Someone was mentioned flying undetected by shadowing KLM flight, there is another theory flying undetected by shadowing SIA flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-17 03:38:23 and read 30815 times.

With too many unknowns and back tracking, I wouldn't be surprised if the plane is somehow still in Malaysia territory. That is the only logical explanation that I can think of why all the other radars didn't detect it over 8 hous of flying.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 03:38:53 and read 30788 times.

Quoting dragon-wings (Reply 169):
Do you remember the pro golfer Payne Stewart? His Learjet lost cabin pressure, everyone onboard were incapacitated due to lack of oxygen and the jet flew for hours before crashing. I think something like this could of happened the MH370.

The Learjet did not have the transponder fail, and a pressurization failure would not explain a climb in response in the hands of seasoned pilots. Also, it would not have flown such a specific route westbound, waypoint to waypoint, unless for some reason they entered that flight plan into the FMC which I don't believe is standard routing. Flying it at FL295 is also not standard for depressurization, in fact FL295 is not standard at all. The transponder would not be disabled, neither would ACARS, a catastrophic failure that disabled both systems but miraculously left the plane intact enough to cruise on autopilot for over 6 hours is in my opinion unlikely. It seems the investigators, Malaysian and otherwise, believe these to be deliberate acts. It is possible that is not the case, but extremely unlikely.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 03:40:10 and read 30700 times.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 171):
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/03/vanishing-plane/

Interesting read.

Thoughts please?

I think we are dealing with two events here. I believe that initially, the plane was forced to fly of course.
The hijacker may well have had a specific goal in mind. However, I also believe that en route, the aircraft ran out of fuel and is now somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

This explains both the communication and transponder black out, the supposed track it flew thereafter and it's intractability since then.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-17 03:41:08 and read 30608 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 140):
in my opinion, there's too much planning involved here for a suicide- why not just point the nose down and stick in the south china sea? Introduce variables to your end goal and at each variable you risk failure.

in that sense, suicide can be ruled out due to risk of failure. Furthermore, all reports about the pilot seem to indicate the contrary.

Wherein lies the risk? You're behind a secure door and have to incapacitate another person - not only with the element of surprise and from behind, but quite likely while that person is also buckled to his seat. One swift blow and you're done - you've already accomplished your primary goal. If anyone engages in any serious effort to breach the cockpit, you plant the aircraft into the ground. Or what's anyone else going to do about it... disrupt your suicide by shooting you down?

Quoting liquidair (Reply 162):
i can see what you're saying, but i just can't imagine one of the two on flight deck flipping out to those levels- or being audacious enough to attempt it this way- or taking the rest of the passengers and crew with them...

Yet it has happened before, more than once. So I fail to see why it's so difficult to image it here.

For what it's worth, I hope I'm wrong. We're still at square one, could be anything.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 123):
As for AF447 one could assume that not much remained topside for very long. And COSPAS/SARSAT detection isn't instantaneous if I recall correctly, takes a little time - not hugely but not instant either...

Good point, I didn't consider that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-17 03:41:38 and read 30604 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 173):

Yes I was telling same to my colleague this morning, unless there is a help from some govt. over which this MH 370 could have flown, it sounds strange that bird traveled over all those countries without leaving any trace.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 175):

Sorry I must admit that made me chuckle. Yes your point make sense, in a way because Malaysia will be the most safe place the moment as SAR have been scattered all over the place.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 03:43:17 and read 30500 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 172):

Which still doesn't rule out the fact that ACARS could be deliberately disabled, right? Maybe not before the last communication, but after, it's still not proving that it was done because of technical reason.
I see it that information is clarified, as well as questions come with better precision, and it's quite natural to pinpoint the truth like that.

[Edited 2014-03-17 03:50:20]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-17 03:44:27 and read 30322 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 177):

What are the updates from officials about SAR deep in Indian ocean? I couldn't see press this morning.

If it has crashed in Indian ocean, is there any realistic chance of finding anything after 10 days?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-17 03:45:02 and read 30429 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 154):
I literally can't believe how everything was saying it was deliberate and they knew for certain. They technically knew nothing and were assuming some pretty big things which don't make any sense.

Exactly!! That's why I was going so mad- the Guardian (and possibly others) were running stories based on this "fact" about the plane was 100% hijacked, painting the picture some kind of sinister person was at the controls saying goodnight to the world.

How long are the Chinese going to put up with this I wonder?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 03:46:38 and read 30210 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 172):
ACARS and the transponder could have been knocked out at the same time due to an electrical problem caused by something....

Really? Seriously?
You think that two fantastically improbable events happens on the same flight at precisely the same time?

I think the chances of getting hit by a meteor are higher.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 03:46:42 and read 30128 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 175):

Because it was not within their reach?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: AirKorea
Posted 2014-03-17 03:46:51 and read 30378 times.

In my opinion, MH 370 turn right over the north east of Penang and flew for 5~6 hours, between Diego Garcia and CoCo Archipelogo and to the Southern Indian Ocean to be ditched by PILOT to aviod radar. Diego Garcia is the air force base of US. So I think it has some radar data on MH 370.
The area, I mention above, is located in the middle of AUS, RSA and IND where few ships and flights are on voyage and is the most remoted sea in the world. Moreover, It is opposite of KL-Beijing route, meaning PILOT, ON PURPOSE, tricked our eyes. And most of us have been tricked.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:48:24 and read 29968 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 180):
Which still doesn't rule out the fact that ACARS could be deliberately disabled, right? Maybe not before the last communication, but after, it's still not proving that it was done because of technical reason.
I see it that information is clarified, as well as come with better precision, and it's quite natural to pinpoint the truth like that.

No it doesn't rule out deliberate it actually makes more sense as ACARS 10 minutes before transponder is illogical for a deliberate action. But since it has a 30 minute window and is probably after the last radio call it could have been deliberate or technical in cause. (obviously all that other navigation and flying points more towards deliberate but who knows maybe they managed to get a route into the autopilot and never made it (southern area is assumed))

The government claiming they knew for sure that it was deliberate isn't true there is no real time difference between the transponder and acars fail to transmit.

Basically were back to just staring at nothing it could be a whole variety of situations (not including conspiracy theories which are very low probability to insanely low probability) They really need to find the crash site soon as the ocean doesn't wait if that is where it crashed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-17 03:50:37 and read 29780 times.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 173):
Another interesting read,

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

Someone was mentioned flying undetected by shadowing KLM flight, there is another theory flying undetected by shadowing SIA flight.

This has already been mentioned and discussed in this very thread. A simple ctrl+F search would have told you that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:50:43 and read 29754 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 180):
Really? Seriously?
You think that two fantastically improbable events happens on the same flight at precisely the same time?

I think the chances of getting hit by a meteor are higher.

No it has minutes to happen. Not instantly by any metric I know of. It could be deliberate or technical if things happened rapidly either case would look the same.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 03:52:03 and read 29584 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 178):

i don't think it's ever really happened like this before...

the risk of failure is of course, present - think suicide attempt compared to success- change of mind, being shot down... Whatever.

i don't buy it personally.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 03:52:12 and read 29639 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 177):
I think we are dealing with two events here. I believe that initially, the plane was forced to fly of course.
The hijacker may well have had a specific goal in mind. However, I also believe that en route, the aircraft ran out of fuel and is now somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

This could be explained by a sequence of events similar to Ethiopian Air 961, however any hijackers that know enough to ask the pilots to disable the transponder and ACARS will also know the amount of fuel an aircraft is expected to carry for that flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-17 03:52:56 and read 29601 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 168):
Again and again and again: No. That does not explain the transponder being off.

Why? If that sudden structural event did just that, happened just there that it was "switched" off? The zigzagging course at first with semi-conscious pilots, then flying on autopilot for hours until the fuel ran out.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 03:57:14 and read 29188 times.

So what we gonna do if FDR and CVR were disabled? Which looking at the now known traces will be a likely possibility?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-17 03:57:16 and read 29580 times.

Chua Chin Hon of the Straits Times:

"New map issued by Malaysia on the south corridor being searched for #MH370 "

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi6-AKFCcAAhD_j.jpg:large
via http://twitter.com/chinhon/status/445502323062632449/photo/1

"New map issued by Malaysia on the north corridor being searched for #MH370"

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi694NJCIAAIP36.jpg:large
via http://twitter.com/chinhon/status/445502186445742082/photo/1

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: rebr
Posted 2014-03-17 03:57:18 and read 29292 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 180):
Really? Seriously?
You think that two fantastically improbable events happens on the same flight at precisely the same time?

I think the chances of getting hit by a meteor are higher.

Most crashes are a chain of very improbable events... I wouldn't be suprised if we ever find it that something completely different happened, that nobody ever thought of...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 03:59:28 and read 29118 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 190):

Wow, that plotted on the google earth map really makes it look like an absolutely huge area to search. (Also considering it isn't totally accurate either)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-17 04:00:20 and read 29032 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 182):

Well...took them 4 days to confirm that the mysterious blip near Pulau Perak was MH370. How do you explain the radar invasion of multiple country? And today in Parliament, the opposition MP urged PM to come clean of any negotiation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 04:02:49 and read 28673 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 192):

If they don't have tools to narrow that or if they don't have incredible luck, the mission is nearly impossible...or they need crowd sourcing (which will also be incredible luck to give results), but at least they could fix current state if the ocean surface before everything sinks...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-17 04:03:14 and read 28694 times.

What is the error estimate on the Inmarsat loci for the last ping i.e. 40deg +/- x deg?
Where are the loci for the earlier pings?

If such info can be obtained and trusted, many speculative routes would immediately die.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-17 04:05:25 and read 28550 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 192):
Wow, that plotted on the google earth map really makes it look like an absolutely huge area to search. (Also considering it isn't totally accurate either)

Yeah, it's disheartening to see the arcs extend considerably further than in the previous image.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 04:06:27 and read 28447 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 193):

Once they flew out of Malaysia, there were no other countries, just Indian ocean. I think slipping through other countries radar coverage would require luck of the same magnitude as faulty ACARS and squawk in the same time...

[Edited 2014-03-17 04:08:42]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 04:06:39 and read 28398 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 195):
If they don't have tools to narrow that or if they don't have incredible luck, the mission is nearly impossible...or they need crowd sourcing (which will also be incredible luck to give results), but at least they could fix current state if the ocean surface before everything sinks...

I don't even think there is enough commercial imaging capacity to image that track in a reasonable timeframe and resolution. It is going to require some experts in those accidental rubber ducky spill ocean flow simulations now (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Floatees). It could take years or never if they don't find something soon.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 04:08:20 and read 28457 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 196):
What is the error estimate on the Inmarsat loci for the last ping i.e. 40deg +/- x deg?

Likely higher than you would expect, which is why they won't publish that information with the maps. If it's as high as 5-10º, that means the search area is unfathomably large, millions and millions of square km, especially when you consider that debris drifts. The metaphorical haystack just got a lot bigger.

If all of this was intentional, they really pulled it off.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 04:09:38 and read 28337 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 200):
Once they flew out of Malaysia, there were no other countries, just Indian ocean. I think slipping through other countries radar coverage would luck of the same magnitude as faulty ACARS and squawk in the same time...

Not to mention unlike a single double failure event maintaining their cover long enough makes them have to roll a very unfavourable dice for hours on end. Plus we have had "redundant" systems fail before it isn't likely but all it takes is time, which in the hiding from radar is the opposite all it takes is time to get discovered.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Yirina77
Posted 2014-03-17 04:13:51 and read 28097 times.

I don´t know if it was already mentioned here before, but I still have on my mind case of stolen B727 in Angola about 10 years ago. It was different case, plane was empty when flew away, but as I remember, that was never explained what really happened there and what was the reason for hijack this B727.
People on the forums like this, were expressing their fears, that this "lost" plane may come back after 10 years, when nobody will remember this case.

I think there is no connection between those two cases, but as we can see, it´s not so impossible to let disappear the plane from the world.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 04:14:53 and read 27869 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 202):
Likely higher than you would expect, which is why they won't publish that information with the maps. If it's as high as 5-10º, that means the search area is unfathomably large, millions and millions of square km, especially when you consider that debris drifts. The metaphorical haystack just got a lot bigger.

If all of this was intentional, they really pulled it off.

The search area is so huge there probably is no similar case. They should try using other sats or radio listening stations to try and find something. That is why I think diving into the cellphone network diagnostics is a highly worth while search one that should have been started the moment they knew it was totally off track.

If just one cellphone registered somewhere it would instantly make the search area manageable (Sure it is unlikely to work but by this point its probably the only thing left to search). And with 7 hours and countless countries possibly overflown if your on the northern track finding that one registration or even error log would be extremely useful. (Not to mention it can be easily delegated out. But based on the conference it doesn't seem like they are trying very hard or even expanding the search to international providers.

The haystack is so large now its probably more like searching for a particular grain of sand in the middle of the ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-17 04:15:18 and read 27933 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 199):
Yeah, it's disheartening to see the arcs extend considerably further than in the previous image

The satellite positioning estimate gives a circle on the surface of the earth. I believe that cutting the circle into two arcs is based on the how far the plane could have flown with the available fuel. Satellite data alone would not limit the positioning on the circle. If they have extended the arcs, it probably is an re-estimatad range based on the fuel available.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 04:15:43 and read 27978 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 193):

this is interesting.

the pilot was a known to sympathise with the opposition. The copilot was the son of a bigwig politician, according to Mandala.

the opposition leader has been jailed for Sodomy.

the opposition now ask PM to come clean about negotiations.

sounds more plausible than the hijacking and landing in Uzbekistan. That is far fetched to the point of Kabulsh*t!

so, question... Which countries along that northern corridor have no extradition treaty with Malaysia?

sorry- i was trying to quote reply 193

[Edited 2014-03-17 04:17:58]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: MarcoT
Posted 2014-03-17 04:16:03 and read 27787 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 69):
A distinguished aviation writer, Geoffrey Thomas, just 'unloaded' on the Malaysian authorities, whom he accuses of wasting a week investigating the wrong area, despite available evidence that the aeroplane changed course and headed well to the west:-

A curious thing to say, since they've expanded the search to the Andaman Sea and said so since DAY 2

[Edited 2014-03-17 04:16:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-17 04:20:13 and read 27407 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 206):
if your on the northern track finding that one registration or even error log would be extremely useful.

Absolutely, it could pinpoint or exclude the northern track. I hesitated posting before but there was one flight I took from DXB-LHR when on landing I realized I had left my mobile on (accidental, I do always try to ensure it is fully off). I then read the messages such as:


'Welcome to Romania [network X]'
'Welcome to Hungary [network Y]'
'Welcome to Austria [network Z]'
etc.

Starting with a first batch of 10 or 20 known mobile numbers from the crew and passengers until you get all, I bet at least one person had forgotten to switch their's off.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: deconz
Posted 2014-03-17 04:20:31 and read 27395 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 138):
As mentioned above this would leave a trail in satellite connection logs.

An ABS-B receiver can be operated in receive only mode. In any case, it uses an internet connection to transmit data it has collected, not satellites! It would be perfect to track air to air  

[Edited 2014-03-17 04:23:21]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 04:21:29 and read 27380 times.

They really need to start picturing that Arc and open it for slow search by slow crowd-sourcing. It will be faster than to fly over those areas and will be stored.
I guess it's the only way, slow, but at least we can have high hopes for final success to find whatever remained...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-17 04:22:09 and read 27298 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 202):
Likely higher than you would expect, which is why they won't publish that information with the maps

Unfortunately that is also my gut feeling.
But no matter how bad it is, they should publish the data and the basis for the estimation.

An Inmarsat team is apparently flying to KL. Maybe they should join the press conference tomorrow!

I have a feeling that their main purpose is to discuss better data that is not to become public knowledge at this point. Otherwise why not just pick up the phone or use the net?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Owleye
Posted 2014-03-17 04:22:14 and read 27382 times.

Quoting Luxair (Reply 127):
I've mentioned the exact same theorie before and I couldn't agree more! Maybe crashing the plane in The Hague due to the world top security meeting on 23-24 march? (Obama and many top leaders will be present at the convention)

In case the plane still exists I fear this scenario as well: a dirty (nuke) bomb hidden in a 777 plunging on The Hague. Though it will be a no-flying zone so that will be difficult then to get through. During the The Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, 2 x RNLAF F16s will be permanent in the air. Maybe they throw in some AWACS as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: MarcoT
Posted 2014-03-17 04:27:21 and read 26985 times.

Quoting haynflyer (Reply 90):
I'm of the feeling that the A/C flew over India shadowing SQ then took a dive into the ocean off the east coast of India in revenge for the death of Osama Bin Laden, whose birthday was March 10th. OSB is supposedly buried at sea somewhere in that area.

How on earth killing Maylasians and Chines on board on a MH could be a constructed as a 'revenge' for the death of Osama?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-17 04:28:04 and read 26756 times.

If it's a structural or technical failure, it's gotta' be the weirdest one ever.

I suppose it could have been a small bomb that knocked out some things and caused a sudden depressurization.

If so, I hope it knocked out the recorder power and thus preserved their data so we will have some information if we ever locate the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 04:28:34 and read 26770 times.

Right, those arcs are not flightpaths...it just where Inmarsat caught the ping. Did they say today something about fuel left after that ping was for 30 minutes of flight or I misinterpret that?

[Edited 2014-03-17 04:29:34]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Gonzalo
Posted 2014-03-17 04:30:00 and read 26850 times.

I apologize if this has been posted before, I were flying a lot the last days and couldn't read everything posted here.

There is a "Breaking" ( yeah I know probably not new here !! ) in the Twitter AP page, saying this :

" BREAKING: Malaysia Airlines believes co-pilot of missing plane spoke final words to ground controllers."

Does anybody know what they are talking about ?

http://twitter.com/AP


Thanks in advance.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 04:32:56 and read 26426 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 218):
If so, I hope it knocked out the recorder power and thus preserved their data so we will have some information if we ever locate the plane.

The biggest problem I see is locating the plane is going to be "extremely hard" to say the least. Regardless of how it went down deliberate or not if this search succeeds after all this it is going to be game changing. And to think, if anyone was on that flight turned on a PLB quickly and the search would have been almost instant and trivial (They probably could have even noticed while it was still in flight).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 04:34:00 and read 26377 times.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 220):

" BREAKING: Malaysia Airlines believes co-pilot of missing plane spoke final words to ground controllers."

Does anybody know what they are talking about ?

It was from the press conference it is their "initial" idea on who was talking last.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 04:34:14 and read 26233 times.

Quoting Owleye (Reply 216):
In case the plane still exists I fear this scenario as well: a dirty (nuke) bomb hidden in a 777 plunging on The Hague. Though it will be a no-flying zone so that will be difficult then to get through. During the The Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, 2 x RNLAF F16s will be permanent in the air. Maybe they throw in some AWACS as well.

The likelihood of this is so small, it's not worth you or I worrying about it.

If you want to fly a plane into a target, you hijack it and do so at the same time before anyone has a chance to comprehend what's happening.

You don't land and wait because now everyone is on the look out of you. Any unidentified radar blip or visually spotted large aircraft will now be intercepted and investigated. The missing 777 will never get to it's intended target now.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-17 04:35:03 and read 26218 times.

Quoting Owleye (Reply 216):

Quoting Luxair (Reply 127):
I've mentioned the exact same theorie before and I couldn't agree more! Maybe crashing the plane in The Hague due to the world top security meeting on 23-24 march? (Obama and many top leaders will be present at the convention)

In case the plane still exists I fear this scenario as well: a dirty (nuke) bomb hidden in a 777 plunging on The Hague. Though it will be a no-flying zone so that will be difficult then to get through. During the The Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, 2 x RNLAF F16s will be permanent in the air. Maybe they throw in some AWACS as well.

Genuine question to you both, is this really something you worry about? If so, why not worry about it before a plane that everyone is looking for goes missing? Surely a complete surprise attack with an unknown aircraft is more "logical" in that fantasy?

I am guessing you are both aviation enthusiasts, what do you think/say to people who sit there in fear of flying in case of explosive decompression of the hull of a modern airliner? You look at them weird right because of the odds of it happening being crazy small. That's essentially what you are both saying in terms of attacks on The Hague. People watch too much 24 and play too much Call of Duty I swear.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-17 04:36:04 and read 26141 times.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 220):

They are saying it was the F/O who said good night to ATC as the last voice comm.

I'm not sure why it matters. It doesn't tell us anything.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: n521na
Posted 2014-03-17 04:36:18 and read 26086 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 102):
no, because this will trigger immediate TA or RA alerts for the SQ... And then ATC would also see them.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't the operators of MH370 have turned off their TCAS system, thus TA/RA alerts wouldn't have triggered on either aircraft? I thought one of the reasons behind the GOL plane that collided with an Embraer Legacy jet some years back was that the Embraer had its TCAS system inadvertently disabled, thus TA/RA warnings were not issued.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-17 04:37:27 and read 26228 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 221):

Yeah, without a breakthrough, I think the plane will be found by someone who is not looking for it, a long time from now...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 04:38:55 and read 26055 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 227):
Yeah, without a breakthrough, I think the plane will be found by someone who is not looking for it, a long time from now...

Probably a jogger or dog walker. They always find stuff. Kinda suspicious if you ask me!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-17 04:40:55 and read 25768 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 228):

inadvertent lol... Read jogger and dog, my brain saw the two combined... Definitely suspicious!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Gonzalo
Posted 2014-03-17 04:41:13 and read 25778 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
It was from the press conference it is their "initial" idea on who was talking last.
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 225):
They are saying it was the F/O who said good night to ATC as the last voice comm.

I'm not sure why it matters. It doesn't tell us anything.

Aha OK thank you, I was thinking they were implying something different with the phrase "final words", for some of us I guess "final words" can be interpreted as the last someone says before commiting suicide.

Rgds.
G.-

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: JimJupiter
Posted 2014-03-17 04:44:21 and read 25484 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 228):
Probably a jogger or dog walker. They always find stuff. Kinda suspicious if you ask me!

Bill Bailey will kindly ask for a royalty payment.  

[Edited 2014-03-17 04:44:50]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jcxroberts
Posted 2014-03-17 04:44:29 and read 25502 times.

The Southern corridor requires going through Australian radar (2000 km) which is much better than Indian. There's no reason to suppose the Southerrn corridor is more likely based on a lack of radar pings. Australia works with the US military and is part of 5 Eyes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement) and is just as current as anything in the U.S.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network

Also, it's a decent possibility both corridors are wrong.

I personally feel we will never find the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Owleye
Posted 2014-03-17 04:44:30 and read 25531 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 224):
Genuine question to you both, is this really something you worry about? If so, why not worry about it before a plane that everyone is looking for goes missing? Surely a complete surprise attack with an unknown aircraft is more "logical" in that fantasy?

I am guessing you are both aviation enthusiasts, what do you think/say to people who sit there in fear of flying in case of explosive decompression of the hull of a modern airliner? You look at them weird right because of the odds of it happening being crazy small. That's essentially what you are both saying in terms of attacks on The Hague. People watch too much 24 and play too much Call of Duty I swear.

So you say that possible scenario is ruled out?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 04:46:48 and read 25330 times.

Quoting n521na (Reply 226):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't the operators of MH370 have turned off their TCAS system, thus TA/RA alerts wouldn't have triggered on either aircraft? I thought one of the reasons behind the GOL plane that collided with an Embraer Legacy jet some years back was that the Embraer had its TCAS system inadvertently disabled, thus TA/RA warnings were not issued.

The transponder was turned off, which is what TCAS relies on to work, yes.

What you were quoting is a response to a weird theory about how to track this plane they were supposed to be shadowing if they wanted to hide themselves from primary radar... Pay it no mind unless evidence points there, it's pretty ridiculous.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 04:47:40 and read 25463 times.

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 231):
Bill Bailey will kindly ask for a royalty payment.

YAY! Someone got the reference  


You have taste, Sir!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jcxroberts
Posted 2014-03-17 04:50:58 and read 25005 times.

For instance, the Australian Defence Satellite Communications Station is near Perth, which is jointly operated by the US and Australia.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 04:50:59 and read 24965 times.

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 232):

The Southern corridor requires going through Australian radar (2000 km) which is much better than Indian. There's no reason to suppose the Southerrn corridor is more likely based on a lack of radar pings. Australia works with the US military and is part of 5 Eyes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement) and is just as current as anything in the U.S.

Being a large OTH installation, does JORN have the capability to determine altitude? Can it even determine speed at such distances? OTH has terrible resolution, a return could be many kilometres wide...! If they say they can detect things as small as a Cessna, they must have a *mountain* of data to get through, none that they could identify by speed&altitude as a highly capable aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-17 04:51:58 and read 24937 times.

Quoting Owleye (Reply 233):
So you say that possible scenario is ruled out?

No, but in the same way you can't rule me out of scoring the winning goal in the World Cup final in the summer

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-17 04:52:43 and read 24810 times.

Quoting Owleye (Reply 233):
So you say that possible scenario is ruled out?

Although we cannot really rule anything out. I think we can put that possible scenario in the "Highly unlikely" category.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: YoungMans
Posted 2014-03-17 04:53:53 and read 24795 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 139):
I

Remember that people still do not know the fate of real people with real families (and I didn't want to bring this up again but I know/knew one of them).

And my heartfelt feelings go out to you, hoping that this will come to a conclusion as soon and as quickly as possible.

At the same time, though, it is important to resolve this, from whatever angle one might have to look at it. Any one of these contributions might trigger a thought for someone, anyone who is involved with the investigations, or help in some other way. It is interesting to see, too, how spooked people are these days about "weaponising" an aircraft. Why couldn't it be a "simple" criminal act (if there is such a thing), sort of in the style of.., indeed, the old James Bond movies, sort of an aviation version of the Great Train Robbery. This would be my guess..:

A generally unknown but highly disciplined organisation, national or private, did not want some of the cargo on that plane to reach China, for whatever reason and no matter at what cost. Hence the lack of screening of the cargo prior to departure. Such an organisation might easily have the wherewithal to do the planning and hijack the (any) plane and its cargo.

The pilots where forced into cooperation by being given the choice, help us and save the passengers - or else.... The pilots would have been told and convinced that as soon as the aircraft reached the new destination, the specific cargo would be unloaded and the plane would be refuelled. They would then be free to fly back to KL or its original destination.

Yes, of course, that would mean that the landing strip would become public but, in the eyes of the perpetrators, who cares, they would be long gone by then, with their cargo. What they didn't tell the crew is that they had no intention to fully keep their promises anyway and eliminated ALL the evidence.

The whole thing would have taken only a few hours ....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: timothy31388
Posted 2014-03-17 04:54:49 and read 24632 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 210):

That's alot of Mangosteens. I thought China plants their own as well? LoL.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: jcxroberts
Posted 2014-03-17 04:55:27 and read 24620 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 237):
Being a large OTH installation, does JORN have the capability to determine altitude? Can it even determine speed at such distances? OTH has terrible resolution, a return could be many kilometres wide...! If they say they can detect things as small as a Cessna, they must have a *mountain* of data to get through, none that they could identify by speed&altitude as a highly capable aircraft.

Of course I don't know, I'm just saying that Australia air defenses utilize the same technology as the U.S. and usually work in conjunction with the US, esp. in terms of satellite and top secret spy stations which would have picked up the flight if anyone.

The technology in the northern corridor is much more suspect. We just found out India turns off its radar in some areas.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 04:56:14 and read 24674 times.

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 232):

The Southern corridor requires going through Australian radar (2000 km) which is much better than Indian. There's no reason to suppose the Southerrn corridor is more likely based on a lack of radar pings. Australia works with the US military and is part of 5 Eyes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement) and is just as current as anything in the U.S.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network

Also, it's a decent possibility both corridors are wrong.

I personally feel we will never find the plane.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/border-radar-fiasco-20110702-1gwio.html

They have advertised it as being able to detect even small boats but that doesn't seem to be true and only RADAR 2 which has a huge area to cover would intersect with the sat ping arc. OTH radar doesn't work the same as conventional radar so it is entirely possible that they just missed it or haven't isolated it from other noise.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: StaticShock
Posted 2014-03-17 04:57:45 and read 24512 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 240):
A generally unknown but highly disciplined organisation, national or private, did not want some of the cargo on that plane to reach China, for whatever reason and no matter at what cost.

...So instead of bribing the folks at the airport (or god forbid) taking it by force on the ground, the staged a hugely complicated and elaborate scheme to hijack a package in mid air, somewhere a million things could go wrong?

I understand people's desire to go towards terrorism theories, I really do; but they need to have some kind of logic to them.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-17 04:57:53 and read 24476 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 239):
Although we cannot really rule anything out. I think we can put that possible scenario in the "Highly unlikely" category

Everything but a structural failure and kidnapping of some sort is in the "highly unlikely" category. Probably the real cause is in that category. That it reached the "northern arc" without being detected by military radar is in the "highly unlikely" category. 911 was in that category, and TWA800 too until it happened (if it happened as we are told).

[Edited 2014-03-17 05:04:06]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-17 05:00:11 and read 24154 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 225):
They are saying it was the F/O who said good night to ATC as the last voice comm.

I'm not sure why it matters.

Could be important, LTC8K6. Most of us (including me) are thinking in terms of armed hijackers seizing control of the aeroplane. That 'goodnight' event pretty well proves that, up to that time, things were pretty well normal and the 'official' flight crew were in charge?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: JCS
Posted 2014-03-17 05:02:11 and read 23954 times.

Quoting Owleye (Reply 216):
Quoting Owleye (Reply 216):
Quoting Luxair (Reply 127):I've mentioned the exact same theorie before and I couldn't agree more! Maybe crashing the plane in The Hague due to the world top security meeting on 23-24 march? (Obama and many top leaders will be present at the convention)
In case the plane still exists I fear this scenario as well: a dirty (nuke) bomb hidden in a 777 plunging on The Hague. Though it will be a no-flying zone so that will be difficult then to get through. During the The Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, 2 x RNLAF F16s will be permanent in the air. Maybe they throw in some AWACS as well.

In my opinion as unlikely as 911 was before 911. A horrible plot but the perfect middle finger to have a nuclear terrorist strike at a conference with world leaders against... nuclear terrorism.

Unlikely? Well... why do all these world leaders gather on the subject?

This fits creepily well: Malaysia does flies B772 to AMS, which is 35 km from The Hague (and normal flightspaths go 100% over the congress center - but than probably not in use of course). With a good reason to fly close by, all it takes is someone to ditch the orginal plane during the route and replace it with the 9M-MRO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: RickNRoll
Posted 2014-03-17 05:02:33 and read 23990 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 246):
Could be important, LTC8K6. Most of us (including me) are thinking in terms of armed hijackers seizing control of the aeroplane. That 'goodnight' event pretty well proves that, up to that time, things were pretty well normal and the 'official' flight crew were in charge?

It seems to prove that the FO was in charge already, and executing his plan.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:03:08 and read 23892 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 240):
A generally unknown but highly disciplined organisation, national or private, did not want some of the cargo on that plane to reach China, for whatever reason and no matter at what cost. Hence the lack of screening of the cargo prior to departure. Such an organisation might easily have the wherewithal to do the planning and hijack the (any) plane and its cargo.

Unless they wanted some fruits so bad (that is shipped a lot normally) they could have easily swapped it out on the ground. Especially at a normal airport where ground staff screening is probably a lot more lax than a military airbase. Why go through all the trouble when passenger terminals lose cargo (even secured ones) all the time sometimes even without detection. If you have the resources doing it on the ground is far, far easier and more likely to succeed, and carry far less risk of failure, and carry far less risk of discovery, and if discovered carry far less consequences. (There are many more areas where you could intercept, swipe, steal, ... on the ground)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-17 05:03:20 and read 24107 times.

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 232):

The Australian Authorities are stating that the radar would have had to have been pointed directly at the aircraft to notice it ,as it was at the time they believe all they could expect was a small blip on the screen ,whatever that means.
I do expect them to find it in the southern indian ocean using sonar tracking for the blackbox but it may take a while she's a pretty wild ocean down there!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:04:10 and read 23740 times.

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 248):
It seems to prove that the FO was in charge already, and executing his plan.

It proves nothing really. It could be him, could be done a few minutes later by the captain or other party, it could be tech related, ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:05:10 and read 23745 times.

Quoting monjonman (Reply 250):
The Australian Authorities are stating that the radar would have had to have been pointed directly at the aircraft to notice it ,as it was at the time they believe all they could expect was a small blip on the screen ,whatever that means.
I do expect them to find it in the southern indian ocean using sonar tracking for the blackbox but it may take a while she's a pretty wild ocean down there!

The wild ocean part is a big problem in finding debris and even if they do finding the original crash site.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-17 05:05:30 and read 23987 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20):
They're not saying the engines were running because they got engine data via ACARS, they're saying if the engines weren't running there wouldn't be any electrical power to ping the satellite.

That's been my understanding all along. The public leaks suggested that RR had been receiving "engine data" for hours and that the investigators were wrong to say otherwise. Then we hear that the only evidence was the "keep alive pings", which I've yet to be convinced should have been known about by the investigators or RR without being informed by a third party.

It's all very well saying the WSJ et al are better at providing information than the investigators but the fact that they're able to publish those leaks from other sources prior to press conferences gives them a bit of an advantage.

Quoting MarcoT (Reply 209):
A curious thing to say, since they've expanded the search to the Andaman Sea and said so since DAY 2

   Having said they'd seek outside help in analysing the apparently inconclusive radar data, which they then did.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-17 05:08:47 and read 23442 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 251):
Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 248):It seems to prove that the FO was in charge already, and executing his plan.
It proves nothing really. It could be him, could be done a few minutes later by the captain or other party, it could be tech related, ...

   All it would prove is that the person making the transmission was conscious and able to operate the radio at the time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-17 05:08:48 and read 23452 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 189):
Quoting tomlee (Reply 251):
It proves nothing really. It could be him, could be done a few minutes later by the captain or other party, it could be tech related, ...

Exactly. He might have signed off and then stepped outside to the washroom.

I guess the one thing it proves is that no-one other than the crew was sitting in the seat flying the plane at that time. But that is hardly a revelation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:08:53 and read 23392 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 253):
The public leaks suggested that RR had been receiving "engine data" for hours and that the investigators were wrong to say otherwise. Then we hear that the only evidence was the "keep alive pings", which I've yet to be convinced should have been known about by the investigators or RR without being informed by a third party.

It's all very well saying the WSJ et al are better at providing information than the investigators but the fact that they're able to publish those leaks from other sources prior to press conferences gives them a bit of an advantage.

No ACARS is totally unrelated to the Satcom inmarsat pings. It literally is like a cellphone network registration message that happens in the background. It has nothing to do with engine data or ACARS itself.

WSJ isn't exactly wording things right and are not the best source to be relying on they usually have to change their half right wording multiple times. (1) they said it was engine data, (2) then Boeing data, (3) then finally inmarsat.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-17 05:13:05 and read 22998 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 252):

It will be an unfortunate ,but good exercise for our subs to see just how good they are and any government in power loves to prove to the public that we have not wasted our tax dollars purchasing subs that cannot even find an object designed to be found !

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 05:16:48 and read 23184 times.

If there was valuable cargo in the story, why would someone send it by normal commercial flight? And by the cargo of value I mean the one that would cost those wild efforts and those ones above the cargohold...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:17:28 and read 23144 times.

Quoting monjonman (Reply 257):
It will be an unfortunate ,but good exercise for our subs to see just how good they are and any government in power loves to prove to the public that we have not wasted our tax dollars purchasing subs that cannot even find an object designed to be found !

Assuming they can narrow it down enough or just search everywhere before the pinger stops working (Not to mention they have already used up a good portion of the battery life of the pinger). After that then it is probably going to be more stealthy than any sub or ship given it would be totally silent and blended into the deep sea floor.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 05:19:52 and read 22927 times.

If the breakers are pulled from FDR, will it signal after immersion ? but it will store no data? Is it right?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: enilria
Posted 2014-03-17 05:19:59 and read 23057 times.

I have a question. It's public that this is a terrorist incident. You have the NSA recording everything going on on the internet purportedly just to stop something like this from happening (another big success on that one) and where are they?

This is their chance to justify all their crazy spying to the public and not a peep? It makes you feel like the Malaysians didn't screw up the most on this one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-17 05:20:01 and read 22976 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 256):
No ACARS is totally unrelated to the Satcom inmarsat pings. It literally is like a cellphone network registration message that happens in the background. It has nothing to do with engine data or ACARS itself.

I'm not sure I suggested otherwise.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-17 05:22:09 and read 22650 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 258):
If the breakers are pulled from FDR, will it signal after immersion ? but it will store no data? Is it right?

Indeed. It is a separate battery-backed system, the pingers (ULBs) are activated by contact with water and are in no way controlled from the cockpit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 05:23:44 and read 22629 times.

Quoting monjonman (Reply 255):

The signal goes for 3 km around only, so it will be not about how government spends money, but how lucky they are to arrive at the right spot...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:23:46 and read 22637 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 259):

Sorry misread but WSJ doesn't really have an advantage when they aren't very accurate.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:26:16 and read 22250 times.

Quoting enilria (Reply 255):

I have a question. It's public that this is a terrorist incident. You have the NSA recording everything going on on the internet purportedly just to stop something like this from happening (another big success on that one) and where are they?

This is their chance to justify all their crazy spying to the public and not a peep? It makes you feel like the Malaysians didn't screw up the most on this one.

Problem with slurping up all of the internet is slurping up all the internet is going to capture so much data so quickly you have no chance of processing everything effectively. Things will be missed and that assumes that it was even done online and a number of other things.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-17 05:29:07 and read 22009 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 246):

Could be important, LTC8K6. Most of us (including me) are thinking in terms of armed hijackers seizing control of the aeroplane. That 'goodnight' event pretty well proves that, up to that time, things were pretty well normal and the 'official' flight crew were in charge?

Could have been said at gunpoint for all we know.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: YoungMans
Posted 2014-03-17 05:29:55 and read 22096 times.

Quoting StaticShock (Reply 244):
..So instead of bribing the folks at the airport (or god forbid) taking it by force on the ground,

Was there any gold on this plane..??
Somewhere I have seen the figure of seven tons mentioned.
Just recently, all the Ukranian gold was shipped to the US; loaded onto an aircraft at 0200 local.
...To save it in case the Russians have any bigger ideas.
What other, very high-value cargo might have been on MH370?
It certainly wouldn't have been 'advertised' on any manifest, I reckon.
A sophisticated, private army or other organisation could pull something like this off, no worries.
And my guess would be that somewhere in those big circles we've seen on these threads there would be more than just one suitable landing strip, other than real airports, where you don't have to bribe a whole population.

Whatever happened, all this is just one big, tragic incident.
And the longer it takes before we will know anything for sure, the worse it will become yet, unfortunately.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-17 05:30:54 and read 21816 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 257):

Thank you for clarification. I hope we at least find them. I'm pretty sure though they will be blank...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:31:44 and read 21860 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 261):
Could have been said at gunpoint for all we know.

They didn't answer the question in the press conference about "stress" in the words spoken and LiveATC doesn't record that area so were in the dark as to how it was said.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Ecflyer
Posted 2014-03-17 05:32:53 and read 21732 times.

I think somebody wanted possession of a big jetliner. And I am just not terribly convinced that the radar in the northern arc is all that formidable when factoring for human error and during the "graveyard shift".


I think they flew on--on a very particular routing--because they had a very particular landing field as their destination.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:35:37 and read 21557 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 262):
Was there any gold on this plane..??
Somewhere I have seen the figure of seven tons mentioned.
Just recently, all the Ukranian gold was shipped to the US; loaded onto an aircraft at 0200 local.
...To save it in case the Russians have any bigger ideas.
What other, very high-value cargo might have been on MH370?
It certainly wouldn't have been 'advertised' on any manifest, I reckon.
A sophisticated, private army or other organisation could pull something like this off, no worries.
And my guess would be that somewhere in those big circles we've seen on these threads there would be more than just one suitable landing strip, other than real airports, where you don't have to bribe a whole population.

Problem with not declaring a pallet of gold is that gold is heavy (very heavy, 20x heavier than a same sized block of water, and many times heavier than lighter goods) and if you declare that as say a load of fruits its going to cause problems with centre of gravity if it is gold vs. water. There is no evidence I know of anything valuable in the cargo or passenger's "brains" that would not be also possible to do on the ground for far less risk/cost/everything.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-17 05:36:40 and read 21322 times.

Now it looks like they got no basis for saying for deliberate manoeuvre since no one could say for sure when both ACARS and transponder were stop functioning. Perhaps, the pilots were desperately trying to control the plane which could also explain the erratic ascend and descend.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-17 05:38:21 and read 21083 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 267):

Now it looks like they got no basis for saying for deliberate manoeuvre since no one could say for sure when both ACARS and transponder were stop functioning. Perhaps, the pilots were desperately trying to control the plane which could also explain the erratic ascend and descend.

Basically the entire ACARS before last radio and transponder off is actually,

last successful ACARS was before last radio contact and transponder off and the next ACARS 30 minutes later was not received.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-17 05:38:56 and read 21034 times.

I have not come across any information clarifying the arcs given.
Did they create the arcs from all the pings and joined the dots so to speak or are they working off just the last one?
Apologies if I have missed something.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-17 05:39:05 and read 21067 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 250):
WSJ isn't exactly wording things right and are not the best source to be relying on they usually have to change their half right wording multiple times. (1) they said it was engine data, (2) then Boeing data, (3) then finally inmarsat.

Which in fairness to reporters is often how breaking news breaks - they obviously had a tip about data transmissions, they used the best of their abilities to connect it to what they know. Really though, there was some truth in it, and it came out before the Malaysians informed the world.

A separate question, would the Naval Communication Station (Harold Holt) at Exmouth in Australia be able to detect a ditching far out in the ocean? I wonder if they are searching too.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: Dalavia
Posted 2014-03-17 05:39:40 and read 21019 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 266):

Would lithium batteries be a similar density to gold?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31
Username: ManuCH
Posted 2014-03-17 05:40:11 and read 22093 times.

This thread will now be locked due to its size. Please continue in part 32:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Any additional posts that are made to this thread after this post will be removed for housekeeping purposes, as this may happen due to a short system lag.


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